Gophers vs. Hawks

As much as I hate to push $nake's hockey preview down the page, I feel I must write a preview for the very interesting Iowa/Minnesota hoops game to take place this Saturday. Ken Pomeroy predicts a 63-55 Gopher victory, and gives them an 84% chance at victory. I am not nearly as confident as Mr. Pomeroy. Also, I was just kidding about feeling bad for pushing Snake's post down. Hockey sucks.

I really don't know what to make of the Hawkeyes, and I haven't had the chance to watch them as much as I maybe should have, mostly because they suck and are boring. In terms of pace, Iowa ranks 332nd in the NCAA. I don't know how many teams there are exactly, but it isn't much more than 332. That's really damn slow. Like, slower than Princeton slow. I think that's how they beat teams, is they go so slow the other team gets bored and start making mistakes.

Iowa is a solid defensive team, and not just because of their deflated points against average due to their super slow pace. They rank 42nd in defensive eFG%, and are 58th against the three and 53rd against the two. They also don't let other teams anywhere near the offensive boards, ranking 20th in the country in terms of opponent offensive rebound rate. Oddly, they don't turn other teams over at all (thank god) they just don't let them score, as they rank 263rd in defensive turnover percentage.

On offense, they aren't exactly a scoring machine, coming in at 189th in adjust offensive efficiency. Good news for the Gophers, as they turn the ball over a lot, 318th in the country, turning the ball over on over a quarter of their possessions. Put this against the Gophers who rank 4th in turning over their opponent, and that could be a huge factor.

So what does that all mean? The Gophers have won every game this year they were supposed to win, and they sure as hell should win this one. Iowa is a piss poor offensive team, having broken 60 points only 7 times all season. Tony Freeman is a quality guard and Justin Johnson is a pretty solid all around wing, but the Gophers have the players to shut these two down, if they don't do it themselves, as both are shooting under 38% this year. Past Freeman and Johnson, Iowa doesn't have much else, as no other player averages as much as 7 points per game. Not only do they turn it over like mad, but they rank 328th in steals against, while the Gophers rank 1st in stealing the ball. Iowa should be lucky to get to fifty tomorrow.

On offense, the Gophers have done very well against poor defensive teams like Northwestern and Michigan by attacking the rim, getting out in transition, and finding open shooters. They struggle against higher quality defensive teams like Wisconsin, and that's what Iowa brings. They are tough on the perimeter, and have size in the paint. They don't take it away a lot, and they don't block shots, but their is a reason teams shoot so poorly against them. This will be a big test for the guards.

If McKenzie, Westbrook, and Nolen can get the offense running, get some penetration going, and get out in transition off turnovers and missed shots, this could end up being a runaway. If Iowa can control the pace, and the Gophers have trouble getting shots, it could get ugly in a hurry.

I think Iowa overall is crappy enough that even with their stellar defense the Gophers should handle them without too much of a problem. Look for Hoffarber to have a big game.

Gophers 66, Iowa 53.