Monday, November 30, 2015

Gophers vs. Clemson Live Blog

Since this is basically the only interesting home non-conference opponent the Gophers are going to face this year and since I cannot be in attendance I might as well live blog the game.

Before that though, I went to the Gopher football game this weekend and actually tailgated for the first time.  I know what you're thinking and yes there's probably something wrong with me, but it was my first time and it was a blast.  I got to hook up with a couple of old college buddies who were in town from Wisconsin (including WSCTQB who used to comment on this blog back when it didn't suck so much), fun internet dudes Disco Stu and Stryker, and a big chunk of the Gopher Blogger/Twitterverse including @TreTanic (and his brother who I don't believe is on twitter anywhere), @MVoDT, @jdmill, and @Swannosaurus.  I know I met other people but it's hard to remember because we did thinks like drink bourbon at 9:30am, destroy all of the beers, take an Uber from one parking lot to another, do back to back shots of fireball or fireball equivalent, and eat nothing but grilled sausages.  It ruled.  We also played a bunch of cornhole and MVoDT and I were the best team in history.  I wish I could say I remembered more of the game, but I don't and then I died the next morning.  Was a blast.

So anyone, on to the next crappy Gopher team.  They opened as a pick 'em against Clemson tonight and have been bet all the way to -2 at some places.  Which means someone is confident in the Gophers.  I myself am not.  Away we go.

Oh wait hold on.  We had our Big Ten Basketball Fantasy Draft last night.  Just a few notes:

  • Keepers: Nate Mason, Caris Levert, Denzel Valentine, Robert Blackmon, Shep Garner, Jake Layman, Melo Trimble, Keita Bates-Diop.
  • First round: Yogi Ferrell, Nigel Hayes, Malcolm Hill, Jarrod Uthoff, Isaac Hayes, Mike Thorne, Troy Williams, Shavon Shields.
  • My team: Levert, Hayes, Derrick Walton, Brandon Taylor, Jae'Sean Tate, Adam Woodbury, and Carlos Morris.
  • Gophers taken: Mason, Morris, Joey King
  • I would also list which teams had the most and fewest players taken, but the website is being a dick and this is already boring.

And now away we go.

-  And the game won't load on the stupid WatchESPN app.  I swear to god someone will burn for this.

18:38 - It's 3-2 Clemson and I finally got it to load.  I'm shocked the Gophers alllowed a 3.  Shocked.

17:42 - Joey King posts up from about 16 out, then kicks a nice pass out of a double to Dupree McBrayer who first misses and easy rotation pass that would have resulted in an open 3, following that up by forcing up a terrible three pointer of his own.  Then Clemson hits a 3 in transition.  I can already sum this season up in once sequence.

17:14 - My son just snuck down to watch some of the game with me.  I want to forbid him from being a Gopher fan so, so bad.  Just as my Dad should have done for me.

15;50 - Buggs knocks down a 3 to make it 11-10 Clemson.  I still have no idea what to make of Buggs.

15:21 - Clemson has done two things so far this game - offensive rebounds and make 3s.  Stop me if you've heard this one before.

14:48 - Morris with a dumb floater that gets blocked, nobody fills to get back, layup Clemson.  This may be the year I actually quit this dumb blog.

13:40 - No defense on either side, so at least it's fun.  18-14 Clemson.

12:58 - Mason drives and doesn't score, nobody fills and gets back, easy lay-up Clemson.

12:21 - McBrayer looks pretty smooth.  Freshman-y, but smooth.  TO THE FUTURE!

12:06 - Murphy gets completely lost and it's another Clemson lay-up.  This is fairly unreal.

11:08 - Murphy's spin move from post to baseline, however, has gotten him multiple easy buckets this year including just now.  There's some potential from some of these guys, no doubt.

9:30 - Murphy now hits a free throw line jumper.  He's got an awfully good all around offensive game for a freshman.  I expect "lots of potential but lots of young mistakes" to be this year's theme.  Which I guess could be worse.

8:09 - And Murphy tip-dunk.  This is just a Jordan Murphy live blog, apparently.

7:16 - Carlos Morris takes the pass in the left corner with a small window if he wants to shoot, jab steps instead and creates a little bit of room if he wants to drive, instead pulls back and shoots a contested 3-pointer which doesn't even come close to going in.  This is what it sounds like when doves cry.

6:16 - Nice little double screen off the indbounds leads to a Mason jumper.  Pitino still excels at drawing up offensive plays, either half court or off the inbounds.  He sucks at a few things, but hopefully he'll learn, and he was more imaginative offensively than any other Gopher coach I can remember.  Also Clemson hit a three while I was typing that.

4:30 - Buggs airballs a 3 by about 3 feet.  Sure.  Why not.

3:22 - Clemson just made a pass from wing to wing you should never be able to make against an aggressive zone.  Led to a stupid 3, that went in of course, but just making that pass shouldn't happen.

2:50 - Joey King hits another open three and he's developed a pretty quick trigger.  He still can't create his own offense and I don't see Big Ten coaches being unable to take him completely away, but he's at least reached a point where they'll have to scheme for him.  Which I wouldn't have believed even a year ago.

0:30 - Clemson three.  I almost can't wait to look at their kenpom numbers tomorrow.  Hard to believe any other team in the country is getting killed by 3s like this.   42-36 half.  I'm going to go watch whatever dumb show my wife is watching.  I might be late for the second half.  OH NO.

19:10 - Mason is so solid shooting.  He's going to be really good.

17:24 - As I say that Mason gets caught standing around on defense.  Some of the mistakes this team makes.........

16:25 - Morris goes one on 3 and somehow manages to kick it to Buggs who takes a dumb contested 3-pointer.  Which hits front of rim, bounces up, and goes in.  We'll take it, but that is not good basketball.

15:05 - Man Murphy just owns the baseline.  Of course, then nobody gets back and it's yet another Clemson three.  51-50 Clemson.

14:04 - Another Clemson three on a drive and kick.  Can't fault the Gophers too much on that one, but man it's just such a common pattern.

13:30 - Announcer guy, "King in the post.  That's not really his offensive strength."  No shit.

12:19 - Buggs hits just a stupid, stupid three pointer.  Good for him I guess.

12:17 - I think I will have some sriracha beef jerky.

11:47 - Clemson sagging way off Dorsey already.  I was hoping that wouldn't happen.

11:25 -  Buggs fouled as he wildly drives the lane.  He's much better at that then when he wildly chucks up contested threes.

11:00 - Dorsey steal and is blocked on the lay up, goes to McBrayer who wildly throws it in the direction of the rim, and then Murphy (who else) with the three point play to put the Gophers up 58-56.  Huge coming out party against the Gophers toughest opponent to date.  I still think McBrayer is going to be my guy from this team (behind Mason, who is everyone's guy) but Murphy showing some real chops.

9:11 - Lotta ugly and fast basketball here.  Basically sums up the Pitino era so far.  And I'm a fan!!

8:30 - I think that's Jabal Abu-Shamala behind the bench.  Also the defense doesn't get back again.

8:22 - So I mention Shamala on twitter and my feed just blows up.  You know who else people mentioned?  Ryan Saunders and Blake Hoffarber.  So many racists on twitter.

5:31 - of course that goes in

5:12 - OH SHIT McBrayer is from NYC?  How the hell did I miss this?  I LOVE NYC point guards.  Told you he was my guy.

4:46 - Clemson misses a free throw.  Somehow the rebound goes out of bounds off the Gophers.  I need to drink more.

4:01 - Beautiful hesitation move into a lay-up by Dorsey.  I take it all back.  71-65 Gophers.

3:31 - King just gets manhandled by Clemson big guy for deep position and easy lay-up.  Probably shouldn't judge King on that since he shouldn't have to be in that position.  Going to anyway.

2:40 - Murphy goes baseline again.  Having an amazing game right now, 22 points and 8 rebounds on a team high 15 shots.  Love it.

1:10 - Murphy tip in to pretty much end the game (80-73) and he came from the complete opposite block to get around the defense and get to that ball.  What a game by this kid. Wow.

0:40 - Gophers up 85-78 and Pitino just called a timeout.  Which means I'm bored now and it's time to go watch crappy tv with the wife.  Jordan Murphy is amazing, and I see a ton of potential from Konate, Mason, Dorsey, and McBrayer.  With some size transferring in I am currently way to optimistic about next year.  Someone come hit me with something.

Tuesday, November 24, 2015

10 Things I Liked and Didn't Like from the Puerto Rico Tip Off

I didn't get to see much of the tournament this weekend.  The first two games happened while I was at work, and the third I missed because on account of being at a bar that didn't have the game on because grrr football, so most of these impressions are coming from flashes of the first two games and looking at box scores and advanced metrics.  Let's just say that coming out of there 1-2 with the only win over lowly Missouri State in a game they almost blew is not an encouraging sign for this season. Ugh.

1.  The Rebounding.  Oh god, the rebounding.  We were pretty well tipped off when Southwest Minnesota State or whoever outrebounded the Gophers in their exhibition game, but man oh man it is not pretty.  They were outrebounded in all three games, and their rebound rates on both sides of the ball are north of the top 225 in NCAA, and they have yet to play a real good opponent.  This is a really, really bad thing.  It's not surprising with the personnel they have, but might be worse than I thought.  Jordan Murphy's defensive rebounding rate is the only one on the entire roster to crack the Top 500 of all NCAA players.

2.  I'm kinda worried Kevin Dorsey can't shoot.  This can be worked around because he is so, so, so good at attacking the rim, but I'm a little worried here.  I know it's easy to point at 2-15 and yell about how he can't hit the broadside of a rim, and that's stupid because sample size and all that, but it's more how he missed.  I'm pretty sure I saw at least one airball, and a couple more that were just, yuck.  Hopefully this gets a little better as the year and career go on, because I love the way he goes to the rim, and a broken jumper makes that more difficult.

3.  Speaking of which, this offense is way too 3-point dependent.  Over 40% of their attempts so far this year are from three, and although that kind of offense can work it's a dramatic uptick from the 33% last year.  Not to mention last year they could actually shoot, hitting almost 38% compared to 34% this year.  Nate Mason will be better than his 29% so far and Dorsey likely isn't a sub 20% shooter, but Carlos Morris, Joey King, and Charles Buggs aren't going to keep hitting at this high of a percentage either.  Plus, again, the caliber of competition so far says they shouldn't have to depend on the 3, and should instead be going to the rim.  Unless something changes this is only going to get worse once conference play starts, which means they'll probably get one cool awesome upset win when everyone is hot, but a whole lot of losses.

4.  Terrible 3-point defense.  Again.  The Gophers have always struggled defending the three for whatever reason and so far are again.  Looking back the last time they ranked in the top 100 in the country against the three was 2008.  2008!  Last year they ranked 287th, this year so far 275th.  That is bad.  The one positive I see is that they're actually limiting the number of threes opponents shoot for the first time under Pitino, with opposing teams taking just 32% of their attempts from three, a number that was over 35% in both of his first two years and every Tubby year, so maybe that's a positive trend.  Or maybe teams are just attacking a gooey soft defense.  Too soon to tell, but they are at least playing pretty good two-point defense.

5.  Bakary Konate is better than I expected.  Now, this is still a very, very fragile compliment given that he is indeed still raw and is kind of a foul machine, but I was impressed by two things.  I saw a legit jump hook.  Not a raw goofy one like if you ask a high school wrestler to shoot one, but a real, good looking shot.  I remember being so stunned by it that I don't even remember if it went in.  Also, his free throws are gorgeous.  Great form, nice high arc, just perfect.  He's only 5-9 this year but whatever, that's fine.  He's further along than I expected him to be.  The Gophers are still screwed for this year, but I am pleasantly intrigued.  His rim protection numbers also look good with a Top 100 block rate in the country right now, but I don't recall seeing any blocks of his so I won't comment further.

6.  Carlos Morris may yet be the death of me.  Every once in a while Morris does something smart and in control.  And I do mostly love him on the defensive end because he balances out his lapses and mistakes by getting a lot of steals.  However, "Morris floater in the lane" might be my least favorite sentence ever because he just does not have that shot.  I knew this year would be nuts because he was going to be asked to be a big part of the offense.  I guess I had hoped we'd see a different Morris, and I suppose if he continues to hit threes at a 43% clip you can deal with a lot of mistakes.  Also he's taking the ball to the rim more than last year, so that's good too.  Look at me, I'm talking myself into Carlos Morris!  This is gonna be a great year!

7.  This is a young team, and a young coach.  Duh, of course, but it's good to keep reminding myself that when Pitino switches up defense to a half court trap for no good reason and the defense gets torched after regular old man to man was doing a good job against Missouri State.  With so many young players and youngish guys playing heavy minutes for the first time and the variety of defenses Pitino likes to run it's no wonder at times the defense looks like a rec league team of 5th graders running around.  This is a year for patience and waiting, which is kind of frustrating considering it's Year 3 of the Pitino era, but at the same time the way the roster was constructed you could see this year looming, and unless he hit on a huge recruiting class this year was pretty much earmarked as rough.  Something good better happen next year though, because he's got that big time class.

8.  Nate Mason is going to be a star.  He played pretty crappy in the tournament overall and so far is showing a disturbing propensity to foul so far this year, but much like Carlos Morris passes the eye test for reckless crazy, Mason passes the eye test for totally under control future star.

And I could only come up with eight things and I kind mailed in the last one so I guess that's as good as you're gonna get.  Up next is Omaha, a terrible team the Gophers ought to beat by double digits.  Their only win this season against a D-1 team was in overtime against a UMKC team the Gophers beat by 18, and one of their losses was to Santa Barbara, their only win so far this year.  They did hang with Colorado and lost by just five, so maybe they aren't completely terrible, but they shoot 23.6% from three, so maybe they are.   The most worrisome thing is so far this year they've given up a lot of three pointers, but done a good job and teams are hitting a super low percentage, so that's bad considering the Gophers love to shoot threes and are horrible at it.

Should be fun.

Tuesday, November 17, 2015

Puerto Rico Tip Off Preview

The Gophers are two games in, and I have very little to say since there is still so much unknown about this team.  They seem like they play pretty decent defense, but they can't rebound at all.  The pass the ball well and Carlos Morris seems like the only ball stopper, but they shoot way too many threes for a team that hasn't shown much of an ability to make them.  As people always like to say, we won't really know about this team until they play a real opponent.  Even if this event isn't exactly loaded with top tier teams, there's enough here that we should, indeed, know quite a bit more about this team afterwards.

First up is Temple on Thursday.  The Owls have only played one game this year and they got their doors blown off by the Tar Heels, but since the Gophers have a wee bit less fire power than Carolina who knows what that means.  Temple was maybe an NCAA snub last season, but they also lost two of their top three guys from last season so this is probably a decent test for our Gophers here.

Generally Fran Dunphy's teams vary their statistical profile based on personnel, which means he's a good coach, but they almost always have two things in common - tough defense, and they don't turn the ball over.  Since we don't really know what we have in the Gophers the tough defense will be a good test, but I'd feel better if they weren't playing such a traditionally disciplined team.  Overall, given the Owls have a decent team but not a good one, this game should tell us a ton about the Gophers this year.

Which is good, because the second game won't tell us anything, either way.  If the Gophers lose they will most likely play Missouri State, who is a bottom tier Missouri Valley team that lost to Oral Roberts by 15 in their only game this year.  Nothing is a guaranteed win, especially for a team like the Gophers this year, but this would be as close to one as any game they've played this year.

On the other hand if the Gophers win, they'll most likely play Butler, who has holes like any other team but is a tremendously awful matchup for them.  Butler will pound the paint, crash the offensive boards, defend like hell, and take care of the basketball.  They aren't a great team because they don't really have much size, but that won't matter against the Gophers.  Basically if I was engineering a team to beat the Gophers, Butler is really close.  If this matchup happens I'll have money on Butler, which is always fun because if you lose your bet that means your team won!  (or did well).

The final game would be against Utah, Miami, Mississippi State, or Texas Tech.  Utah is legit and is the favorite to win.  In fact if they don't most likely they had a really bad tournament, so if the Gophers do end up playing the Utes that would mean good things for the Gophers.  Plus it would be fun to watch the Gophers try to find a way to stop seven-foot monster Jakob Poeltl.  Miami might not be completely terrible and we'd get to watch that jerk Ja'Quan Newton and see if Tonye Jekiri can get to 20 rebounds.  Mississippi State is bad and just lost to Southern which is in the SWAC who should never beat anyone, but Malik Newman is a super stud freshman who would be fun to watch.  Texas Tech is still mostly a garbage fire and it would suck to play them because the whole Gophers vs. Tubby narrative would drive me insane.

So there you go.  Should be pretty fun.

Wednesday, November 11, 2015

Some things are Happening

Busy week, and that doesn't even count college basketball kicking off on Friday (yay!).  Speaking of, I should do like, a mini preview here of UMKC, the Gophers' opponent for a game I cannot attend.  And then Louisiana-Monroe since that game is Sunday (and I am going). Man I have a lot of work to do.

UMKC:  The Kangaroos are kind of interesting and not just because they are called the Kangaroos.  They finished second in the WAC last season and return the Conference Player of the Year in Martez Harrison.  They lose most everyone else, but Harrison is apparently good enough that the Roos are projected to finish fourth this year.  They started last season with a bang, knocking of Missouri, but then did nothing after.  Hopefully they avoid a big win to start the season this time.

Looking at Harrison, it looks like he does it correctly.  He gets his 17.5 points per game mainly at the rim, on 3 pointers, and at the line.  Although the shooting percentage isn't great at just 39%, he's at least taking good shots - on paper.  Should be a fun guy to watch.  He scored 26 against Missouri and 21 against Kansas StatePlus they have a dude named Shayok Shayok, and that's always fun.

LOUISIANA-MONROE:  ULM also has a fun name, the Warhawks.  And, like the Kangaroos, the Warhawks should finish near the top of their conference, in this case the Sun Belt.  The Warhawks were a pretty good defensive team last season and they have most of the squad back so they should be annoying again.  They play slow and they play tough, and that will certainly be a worthwhile early season test for the crappy Gophers.

Where ULM sucks is shooting, and boy do they suck.  They're the suckiest bunch of sucks who ever sucked.  As a team last year they hit under 30% from 3 and 46% from 2.  They were alright on free throws, but that didn't matter because they never got to the line - dead last in terms of FTs per FGA, to be specific.  Four guys took over 100 3pointers last season and they shot 24%, 35%, 39%, and 28%.  So yeah, they're terrible.

So these are two games the Gophers definitely need to win and should win, but both will present some challenges. Probably.  I don't know.  Who knows what we're getting from this team this year?

Next, the Twins were busy!  First they submitted the winning bid of $12.85 for the exclusive negotiating writes with Byung Ho Park of the Korean League.  He's 29, so you're gonna get what you're gonna get, but he hit 105 home runs over the past two seasons and sources say that's a lot of home runs.  He hit .343 last season, has an OPS of .951 over his career, and averaged 85 walks over the past four seasons.  I mean, dude can hit in the Korean League.  How does that translate, is the question.   If you're cringing a bit because you can't help but think back on Tsuyoshi Nishioka you're not the only one.  He put up a .346/.423/.482 line in Japan in 2010, signed with the Twins, and proceed to hit .215/.267/.236 over two seasons so yeah, I'm a bit wary of dudes changing leagues.

One positive data point is Jung Ho Kang of the Pirates who was a teammate of Park's.  Kang put up a .356/.459/.739 line in Korea, then came over and hit .287/.355/.461 which is very solid.  His homers dipped from 40 in the KBL to 15 in MLB, which is something to keep in mind with Park as well, but Kang should finish 2nd or 3rd in NL Rookie of the Year (behind Kris Bryant) and if the Twins can get similar from Park that's a nice pick up.

Although Park's last season was his best, he's OPSed over 1.000 each of the last three and his career numbers (.281/.387/.564) are very good and he's pretty consistently showed power where's Kang's 40 homers kind of came out of nowhere.  If I was in the projection business, I'd probably peg him somewhere around his career numbers with a slight dip in OBP and SLG (maybe .280/.340/.520) with somewhere around 25 homers.  I will take that all day.

Then the Twins traded Chris Herrmann to the Diamondbacks for Daniel Palka.  Herrmann was sort of terrible so trading him is fine.  Palka lands on most D-Backs prospect lists somewhere around 30, so he's probably a good return for Herrmann.  He hit .280/.352/.532 last season at high A ball, with 29 homers and 24 steals - good numbers.  He's another 1B and OF type with contact issues that seem to litter the Twins minor leagues, but hey, eventually one of them will work out and all they gave up was Herrmann.  Groovy.

Finally, the Twins made my brother very angry and traded Aaron Hicks to the Yankees for catcher John Ryan Murphy, a much bigger deal of a trade the first one.  Hicks famously had two brutal seasons breaking into the bigs, but last year seemed to be figuring things out and was almost a league average hitter.  Given his above average defense and speed, it's a calculated gamble getting rid of him now, however, and I realize how absurd this is even before I type it, the Twins have too many options in the OF so it makes sense to move someone now if he has even a little bit of value, especially if they don't think Hicks is going to live up to his potential.  Hopefully we don't have a Carlos Gomez 2.0 situation on our hands here.

Murphy was ranked the Yankees #6 prospect prior to 2014, and hit .277/.327/.406 last year, good enough for an OPS of .734, which would have ranked him ninth among all catchers with at least 400 PAs last season, and well above the .610 Kurt Suzuki, excuse me All-Star Kurt Suzuki, flailed his way to last year.  Those numbers are pretty well in line with his minor league career stats, and despite the lack of power (he'll hit about 5-10 homers in a full season) they're serviceable enough considering it sounds like Murphy is an above average defensive catcher, though not a star.

Overall I hate trading Hicks, but the move makes sense in a lot of ways, and that's not even getting into how much money they would end up throwing at either Matt Wieters or some terrible old player like A.J. Pierzynski (who I love) in order to get a decent starting catcher since Suzuki sucks now.  Let's just hope Murphy is that decent starting catcher.

Thursday, November 5, 2015

Preseason Top 25 - Reactions

Hey the Preseason Top 25 polls just came out.  You know what that means, time to write about how bad all these teams suck.  I'm taking a look at the AP poll instead of the Coaches poll because I chose it at random.  Spoiler alert:  The Gophers aren't in here.

1.  NORTH CAROLINA.  They only lose J.P. Tokoto who entered the NBA Draft for some reason but that's fine because I think he mostly made people mad at his shooting. Marcus Paige is back and he's really good when he's not being terrible.  They had zero outside shooting other than him last year, and unless one of the freshman can shoot (one supposedly can) or somebody else learned how to hit a 3-pointer in the offseason this is not the best team in basketball.  Also I just read Paige is out for 3-4 weeks with an injury so maybe that will lead to somebody else being good.  SPOILER:  nope.

2.  KENTUCKY.  Hell I don't know.

3.  MARYLAND.  It's hard to wrap my head around Maryland being this high, but I can't argue with it.  They were a 4 seed in the tournament last year and even though they didn't make it out of the weekend they were still a solid team.  Melo Trimble came back and might be the best player in the conference, they added two big time transfers, and got a late commitment from Diamond Stone who is supposed to be awesome despite the ridiculous name and fills their only real hole.  Still, three seems really freaking high.

4.  KANSAS.  Want to hear something that will blow your mind?  Perry Ellis is back for another year.  Even so, these guys are my pick for title winner.  Ellis sucks but he's not completely useless, and even if he is Kansas has everybody back (except Kelly Oubre who was meh anyway) and they're adding two McDonald's All Americans who are both forwards.  This team is deep as all hell, all they need is someone to make the leap.  With so many above average players in both ability and pedigree you'd think somebody's going to do it, and if two or more do these guys will be really, really good.  Bet on them.  Do it.  Go do it.  They're like 10-1.  Do it.

5.  DUKE.  Uh, you guys know they lost Tyus, Okafor, and Justice Winslow, right?  This is all because Grayson Allen, who makes J.J. Redick look downright lovable, had that good stretch in the National Championship game, isn't it?  Does he really seem like the kind of player who can carry a team for a while season.  NOT BLOODY LIKELY.  Good luck with him and one million freshmen.  Oh, right, they got a transfer from Rice coming in too.  Yes, Rice.  The college.  If you read any preview of Duke this year they call out a transfer from Rice as a huge positive.  I am currently making a dismissive wanking motion.

6.  VIRGINIA.  Hoops nerds like to tell you that if you think Virginia basketball is boring, you don't really understand basketball.  Well I understand basketball and I know what the pack line defense is and all that and I'm telling you - Virginia basketball is freaking boring as all hell.  And basically the whole team is back again to be boring and annoying and get handjobs from announcers.  Ugh.  Stop already.

7.  IOWA STATE.  If you asked me to guess where Iowa State was rated I would have said like I don't know, maybe mid-20s or something so this is a bit of a surprise.  But I guess Georges Niang is back which seems impossible and possibly illegal, and, you're not going to believe this, but the Cyclones get a couple of big deal transfers from other programs.  Add that to almost the whole team being back and I guess I see why they're this high.  They should be really fun and pretty good until one of their players gets suspended.

8.  OKLAHOMA.  The opposite of Virginia, these guys are fun as hell to watch and since Buddy Hield, who is basically a lock to lead the Big 12 in scoring, is back they probably will be again.  They also ranked 8th in defensive points per possession, so it is actually possible to play fast, fun, and good defense all at the same time.  Take notes, Cavaliers.  Also, this is way too high for these guys.

9.  GONZAGA.  Lots of people say stuff like man Gonzaga is overrated, they stomp the WCC, get all this Final Four type buzz, and then flame out.  Last year they finally made the Elite 8, which is definitely an accomplishment, but also just the second time they've gotten that far, the last coming in 1999.  So I don't know that they've proved that they're anything more than a small conference bully.  They've got a rock solid front court, but lose their entire back court so things could be rough early.  This section was extremely boring.

10.  WICHITA STATE.  They have Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet back.  That right there is enough to win the Missouri Valley.  No really, you take those two and Greg Marshall and you could roll out of their with three toddlers and the Shockers would roll.  Unfortunately it is both unsafe and illegal to play with toddlers so Wichita State will use real players to complement those two.  I don't really feel like looking up who any of those players are, but since Wichita has been good for so long at this point I'm guessing they're probably pretty good.

11.  VILLANOVA.  God that sucked when these guys got bounced last year, and not just because they were my non-Kentucky pick to win.  They were so freaking good.  Then a dopey NC State team knocks them off.  I suppose I shouldn't be surprised, that's kind of Villanova's thing.  Also their thing:  guards.  And they have a bunch of them again.  So expect the Wildcats to shoot a ton of three pointers, own the Big East, grab a high seed, and flame out early.  It's what they do.  Lesson learned.

12.  ARIZONA.  Stanley Johnson, T.J. McConnell, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, and Brandon Ashley are all gone.  That is a lot of people to be gone.  However Arizona is Arizona, and it must be nice to be Arizona, because they get a star transfer from Boston College and picked up one hell of a recruiting class, including stealing Allonzo Trier from the Gophers.  Also, they still have Kaleb Tarczewski and he is awesome and looks like he would fight you.  And you would die.

13.  MICHIGAN STATE.  Another team with a couple of big losses which catches a break with a big time transfer, ready to step right in.  For Sparty it's Eron Harris who only scored over 17 points per game in his last season at West Virginia, no big whoop.  I'm really fascinated by Lourawls Nairn (remember him?) here.  He only took 8.5% of the team's shots when he was on the floor.  The lowest Gopher with any real minutes played was Bakary Konate at 11.1%, which is actually way higher than Nairn.  I only found two other Big Ten players under 10% last year (Jaylon Tate of Illinois and Jeremiah Kreisberg of Northwestern) but both played far fewer minutes than Nairn.  So like, is that his thing?  What does he do if nobody guards him?  He's the anti-chucker, which in a way, is as fun as a real chucker.  I love watching how teams guard Rajon Rondo - they don't.  I hope that's what happens with Nairn.

14.  CAL.  This team could be like whoa.  I bet them at 60-1 to win the whole thing this summer, and I still like them now down all the way at 20-1.  They have a ton back from last year's team, not a great year, admittedly, and add two Top 10 recruits.  Yes, that's TWO top 10 recruits.  If the name on the jersey was Duke instead of Cal this would be a Top 5 team.  Plus, I like Cuonzo Martin as a coach.  This is my favorite sleeper this year.

15.  INDIANA.  Oh come on!  Do we not play defense any more in basketball, because if this is offense only I would say the Hoosiers are too low, but overall?  No chance.  It's the same team.  The only difference is they got some stud recruit center, but can one player suddenly take a swiss cheese defense and make it good?  Or even passable?  No.  Maybe Antoine Broxsie back in the day, but nobody can make Yogi Ferrell look good on defense.  Should score a lot of points though.  Gopher/Hoosier games should be in the 160s.

16.  UTAH.  I know they have at least one, and maybe two, big giant tall guys, and that's generally a good start when it comes to basketsball.  Ok I decided to check and they only have one, but he's really good you guys!  His name is Jakob Poetl and he's a possible lottery pick who held Jahlil Okafor to 6 points and 4 turnovers in March.  He can score, rebound, and block shots and now that Delon Wright is gone he should be the offenses focal point.  Should be fun.  No idea about all these other guys.

17.  WISCONSIN.  Oh come on!  You're kidding me.  Look, I love Nigel Hayes, I love him as much as I could ever love a Badger.  I think he's most likely a more skilled Noah Vonleh and I loved Noah Vonleh and thanked Jehova every day that Tom Crean was such a terrible coach.  But the Badgers are basically Hayes, Bronson Koenig who is whatever fine, and then nobody else.  I know people say it's stupid to bet against the Badgers and Bo Ryan, but people like blood sausage too.  People are morons.  Badgers suck this year.

18.  VANDERBILT.  Here's another team I like, although I can also see them sucking.  On paper it looks good - a potential lottery pick at center (Damian Jones) surrounded by shooters (Riley Lachance (remember him) and Wade Baldwin (him too) among others, and a team that really gelled as the season went on with most of the team back.  Vandy started out 1-7 in SEC play, but closed out 8-2 and looked really good, so yeah, on paper this looks good.  In reality, it's Vanderbilt so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

19.  NOTRE DAME.  Jerian Grant is gone, which is a fairly huge deal considering the game plan was generally "hey Jerian, go do everything for us."  The back-up for that was, hey Pat Connaughton, you go do stuff instead but oops, he gone.  Zach Auguste is a super stud, I'll give you that, and he's probably going to be better than Noah Vonleh, but somebody has to get him the ball.  In summation, these guys suck.

20.  UCONN.  They have Amida Brimah who I love because he blocks like, every shot ever taken, and their transfer train is rolling, picking up Sterling Gibbs (who is kind of a dick) from Seton Hall to go with Rodney Purvis whom they stole from NC State last year or maybe the year before.  Actually looking at this roster I've heard of like, everybody which seems goodish.  How the hell is Omar Calhoun still in college basketball?  That's insane.  Also, I probably watch too much basketball.

21.  LSU.  One of my favorite sleepers this year.  Tons of guard play back and they're bringing in the #1 recruit in the country and another big deal new guy too who just got eligible.  As far as negatives go, I have a short list of what I call "dumb teams to never ever bet on" who are always dumb and do stupid stuff and lose when they shouldn't because they are dumb every year no matter what.  LSU is on that list.

22.  BAYLOR.  Baylor still?  I figured they'd drop off the face of the map with recruiting violations or something by now, but here we are.  The front court has a monster in Rico Gathers who is basically a bigger Montrezl Harrell (yes bigger) without the jump shot, but their entire back court is gone.  Oh what's that?  A really young back court coached by Scott Drew?  I smell some early season anti-Baylor wagers.

23.  PURDUE.  Another team I like, mainly because facing them is like going against a bunch of gigantic monsters from a Goosebumps book.  A.J. Hammons is seven feet tall, 261 lbs., Isaac Haas is 7-2, 297 lbs., and incoming freshman Caleb Swanigan is 6-9, 260 lbs..  It would be pretty sweet if they figured out a way to play all three at the same time.  I mean, it wouldn't make a lick of sense, but it would be pretty sweet.  Anyway, Purdue plays pretty good defense, and it's probably going to be even better next season.  They also can't shoot at all.  So there are going to be some ugly, ugly games.

24.  BUTLER.  I tried to write about Butler like 4 times.  That's probably enough.

25.  MICHIGAN.  Michigan loses nobody from last year's team, and that's good even though last year's team missed the tournament.  That was more because Caris LeVert and Derrick Walton played only 37 combined games than Michigan being an actually crappy team, because I am learning John Beilein is a wizard who doesn't make crappy teams.  They're still basically lacking any kind of skilled or capable big man and Zak Irvin is kind of wild out there, but this should be a pretty good team.  Probably better than this ranking.  Man, if Purdue could trade one of their big dudes for a shooter from Michigan, that would be pretty sweet.  College sports needs trading, would be so awesome.  Not like they care about the kids anyway, which is ok because neither do I.  PLAY GAMES FOR MY AMUSEMENT!!!

Monday, November 2, 2015

Gophers 74, Crookston 57

I did not attend the exhibition game against Crookston this weekend, as I was busy.  My father, however, did.  He also texted me, "It's going to be a long season."  My father is an optimist.  This can't be good.  Since we live in a glorious time to be alive and we have this thing called the internet there are box scores and highlights.  That is neato.  I might as well take a peek at them and see what there is to see.

First, the highlights are mostly meaningless because most highlights are as an analytical tool, particularly against a school completely beneath your league, but four things standout.

1.  Gaston Diedhiou covering the distance from near top of the key to the rim in one dribble and dunking (0:38).  That is some serious distance covering skills, which taps into his athleticism.  Also, having the confidence to execute such a move gives us a hint as to how far he's come in his development.  That move was as important to the team this is year as it was shocking.  What if he's good?

2.  Ahmad Gilbert shake and bake and step back jumper (0:56).  Granted, it's generally been accepted by analytical basketball types, which I like to consider myself, that 18 foot jumpers are pretty much the worst shot in the basketball, but I liked this play.  You don't take that shot unless you consider yourself a great shooter, and I like great shooters.  Of course, not every player who considers themselves a great shooter is indeed a great shooter, but he's also a lefty so he probably is.

3.  Jordan Murphy's three pointer (1:11).  I was unaware Murphy could hit threes, but he did and his form looks good.  Perhaps you were aware and that is good for you.  I was not.

4.  Nate Mason's hair (the whole thing).  That is spectacular.

The box score, now, let's see.  Well, they held Crookston to 38% and just 0.78 points per possession (I think, I've never actually had to calculate this for myself), which are both good but expected.  The 21 turnovers is also nice to see, given that it's the whole point of Pitino's defensive style.  Allowing 13 offensive rebounds on 36 missed shots is kind of horrible.  Thats even worse than their 33.4% last season, and that number ranked dead last in the Big Ten.  And, just a quick reminder, they were playing Crookston last night.  So that's, you know, probably something to keep an eye on.

The Gopher offense wasn't much better, putting up just 1.03 points per possession which would be an ok number against a Big Ten opponent but is flat out lousy against an exhibition foe.  It turns out when you shoot 39% from the floor and 52% from the line you're not going to score a ton of points.  Only 8 turnovers is good.  35% three point shooting is fine, depending on the looks.  Diedhiou's 11 shot attempts is encouraging, but his size and athletic ability should let him dominate a team like this.  I'm still encouraged by him so far.

Thirty-four points in the paint seems kind of awful against this opponent.  Or if that's not awful, then Crookston getting 28 in the paint is awful defense.  One of those two numbers is awful.  Ugh.  Sounds like a horrible game to watch.

So we move on.  Friday night they play somebody.  Southwest Minnesota State I think.  For some reason I'm going to that one.  But I think I'll have my damn weiner kids, so at least they'll distract me enough I won't have to pay too much attention.