Some things are Happening

Busy week, and that doesn't even count college basketball kicking off on Friday (yay!).  Speaking of, I should do like, a mini preview here of UMKC, the Gophers' opponent for a game I cannot attend.  And then Louisiana-Monroe since that game is Sunday (and I am going). Man I have a lot of work to do.

UMKC:  The Kangaroos are kind of interesting and not just because they are called the Kangaroos.  They finished second in the WAC last season and return the Conference Player of the Year in Martez Harrison.  They lose most everyone else, but Harrison is apparently good enough that the Roos are projected to finish fourth this year.  They started last season with a bang, knocking of Missouri, but then did nothing after.  Hopefully they avoid a big win to start the season this time.

Looking at Harrison, it looks like he does it correctly.  He gets his 17.5 points per game mainly at the rim, on 3 pointers, and at the line.  Although the shooting percentage isn't great at just 39%, he's at least taking good shots - on paper.  Should be a fun guy to watch.  He scored 26 against Missouri and 21 against Kansas StatePlus they have a dude named Shayok Shayok, and that's always fun.

LOUISIANA-MONROE:  ULM also has a fun name, the Warhawks.  And, like the Kangaroos, the Warhawks should finish near the top of their conference, in this case the Sun Belt.  The Warhawks were a pretty good defensive team last season and they have most of the squad back so they should be annoying again.  They play slow and they play tough, and that will certainly be a worthwhile early season test for the crappy Gophers.

Where ULM sucks is shooting, and boy do they suck.  They're the suckiest bunch of sucks who ever sucked.  As a team last year they hit under 30% from 3 and 46% from 2.  They were alright on free throws, but that didn't matter because they never got to the line - dead last in terms of FTs per FGA, to be specific.  Four guys took over 100 3pointers last season and they shot 24%, 35%, 39%, and 28%.  So yeah, they're terrible.

So these are two games the Gophers definitely need to win and should win, but both will present some challenges. Probably.  I don't know.  Who knows what we're getting from this team this year?


Next, the Twins were busy!  First they submitted the winning bid of $12.85 for the exclusive negotiating writes with Byung Ho Park of the Korean League.  He's 29, so you're gonna get what you're gonna get, but he hit 105 home runs over the past two seasons and sources say that's a lot of home runs.  He hit .343 last season, has an OPS of .951 over his career, and averaged 85 walks over the past four seasons.  I mean, dude can hit in the Korean League.  How does that translate, is the question.   If you're cringing a bit because you can't help but think back on Tsuyoshi Nishioka you're not the only one.  He put up a .346/.423/.482 line in Japan in 2010, signed with the Twins, and proceed to hit .215/.267/.236 over two seasons so yeah, I'm a bit wary of dudes changing leagues.

One positive data point is Jung Ho Kang of the Pirates who was a teammate of Park's.  Kang put up a .356/.459/.739 line in Korea, then came over and hit .287/.355/.461 which is very solid.  His homers dipped from 40 in the KBL to 15 in MLB, which is something to keep in mind with Park as well, but Kang should finish 2nd or 3rd in NL Rookie of the Year (behind Kris Bryant) and if the Twins can get similar from Park that's a nice pick up.

Although Park's last season was his best, he's OPSed over 1.000 each of the last three and his career numbers (.281/.387/.564) are very good and he's pretty consistently showed power where's Kang's 40 homers kind of came out of nowhere.  If I was in the projection business, I'd probably peg him somewhere around his career numbers with a slight dip in OBP and SLG (maybe .280/.340/.520) with somewhere around 25 homers.  I will take that all day.

Then the Twins traded Chris Herrmann to the Diamondbacks for Daniel Palka.  Herrmann was sort of terrible so trading him is fine.  Palka lands on most D-Backs prospect lists somewhere around 30, so he's probably a good return for Herrmann.  He hit .280/.352/.532 last season at high A ball, with 29 homers and 24 steals - good numbers.  He's another 1B and OF type with contact issues that seem to litter the Twins minor leagues, but hey, eventually one of them will work out and all they gave up was Herrmann.  Groovy.

Finally, the Twins made my brother very angry and traded Aaron Hicks to the Yankees for catcher John Ryan Murphy, a much bigger deal of a trade the first one.  Hicks famously had two brutal seasons breaking into the bigs, but last year seemed to be figuring things out and was almost a league average hitter.  Given his above average defense and speed, it's a calculated gamble getting rid of him now, however, and I realize how absurd this is even before I type it, the Twins have too many options in the OF so it makes sense to move someone now if he has even a little bit of value, especially if they don't think Hicks is going to live up to his potential.  Hopefully we don't have a Carlos Gomez 2.0 situation on our hands here.

Murphy was ranked the Yankees #6 prospect prior to 2014, and hit .277/.327/.406 last year, good enough for an OPS of .734, which would have ranked him ninth among all catchers with at least 400 PAs last season, and well above the .610 Kurt Suzuki, excuse me All-Star Kurt Suzuki, flailed his way to last year.  Those numbers are pretty well in line with his minor league career stats, and despite the lack of power (he'll hit about 5-10 homers in a full season) they're serviceable enough considering it sounds like Murphy is an above average defensive catcher, though not a star.

Overall I hate trading Hicks, but the move makes sense in a lot of ways, and that's not even getting into how much money they would end up throwing at either Matt Wieters or some terrible old player like A.J. Pierzynski (who I love) in order to get a decent starting catcher since Suzuki sucks now.  Let's just hope Murphy is that decent starting catcher.

Twins Roster Preview - Hitter guys

With the depressing but not terribly surprising news that the Twins sent all the interesting young people back down to the minors and kept a bunch of lame-o veterans on the big league roster, I suppose it's time to turn my thoughts to baseball.  Also, there's a 75% chance I hate the college basketball national champion (actually probably more like 98%) so I'm going to ignore that until it's on TV because of course I'll watch.  Anyway, here's what we're dealing with from the guys who will try to hit the ball this year.

CATCHER:  It'll be Kurt Suzuki and Josmil Pinto once again.  Although it's kind of boring, this is sadly probably the Twins strength given Suzuki's solid season in 2014 and Pinto's possible upside.  The handling of the catcher position last year was bizarre.  Signing Suzuki in case Pinto wasn't ready made sense, but then extending Suzuki and demoting Pinto was the kind of move a contending team would make, and in case you forgot the Twins were not a contending team.  Suzuki's value was likely at an all-time high given his career year and All-Star appearance and moving him at the trade deadline was probably the smart move, but here we are.

Suzuki will of course be the starter again.  Last year he put up a slash line of .288/.345/.383 which smashed his career numbers.  His peripherals suggest some regression but not as much as I had feared, so he should be solid behind the plate again.  He's not horrible defensively either, so the Twins have a legit, competent player.  Neat.  Hopefully he gets traded.  Pinto had a solid minor league track record of hitting and had a splashy debut in 2013, but last season his bat deserted him to the tune of .219/.315/.391 and given that he's a pretty terrible fielder most/all of his value comes from his bat.  He did start hitting once demoted down to AAA last year, and even in struggles he still showed good plate discipline and power when he did make contact so there's probably not too much to worry about.  Other than his path being completely blocked by the stupid 2-year deal given to Suzuki.  Trade him!

INFIELD:  Your guy Joe Mauer will be the first baseman again, which is pretty brutal.  Mauer's line of .277/.361/.371 would be slightly above average for a middle infielder, but that OPS ranked 15th among all first basemen who qualified last season, just a slight tick better than Garrett Jones.  I don't know what's up with Mauer, but an increase in strikeouts coupled with a complete loss of power is fairly terrifying given his salary.  He's stopped hitting fly balls, and the fly balls he does hit don't go anywhere.  I don't know why or what he's doing differently but whatever it is somebody please fix it!

I'm pretty stoked about the middle infield combo of Danny Santana and Brian Dozier, and these guys could be fixtures of the team when it gets good again which it will eventually so shut up.  A lot of Santana's detractors point to his BABIP of .405 and say it's unsustainable, and it is, but I found a neato expected BABIP calculator that takes a players line drive percent and all that other stuff and spits out what the BABIP should be and his came out at .369 last year, so that .405 represents a bit of luck but not this massive amount you'd usually expect from a number north of .400.  I expect him to bat close to .300 again and play a shaky shortstop.

Dozier just signed what could be a steal of a deal at 4/$20, assuring the Twins won't have to shell out big money any time soon if he continues to get better or even stays the same.  Of course they could be stuck with him if he goes back to sucking, but I choose to believe that isn't going to happen.  He doesn't hit for a high average which makes old people sad, but he has good power and great plate discipline, not to mention an above average glove and according to fangraphs base running metric (takes into account both stealing bases and taking an extra base on a hit) he was the 3rd best base runner in the game.  Add all that up, and his hair, and you get one of the best second basemen in all of baseball.  Too many tools for him to breakdown.  He's going to be a nice bargain for the next four years, and probably traded at the deadline in 2018.

Trevor Plouffe will be back at third again, probably for the last time.  With Miguel Sano breathing down his neck and still no indication Sano's going to be anything other than a third baseman this is Plouffe's last chance to prove his value.  Whether he ends up being a trade casualty (probably the best case scenario), is non-tendered in the offseason, or shows enough they want to keep him around and make him an outfielder or something he's probably done at third.  He's had a solid, if mostly unspectacular (other than that one time he was super hot hitting homers) 3-4 year run and has worked hard to go from a terrible fielder to an above average one, all while being a good, not great, hitter.  He's been an important part of a consistent 90-game loser and it's time to start winning.  Not this year, of course, be real, but next year maybe we can think about it.

Backing these nerds up we have the two headed crap factory of Eduardo Escobar and Eduardo Nunez who I still don't know why he was resigned.  Escobar showed a weird flash of power last year with 35 doubles and is a capable defender all over the place so I like having him around.  Nunez is terrible at everything.

Designated Hitter should be a fun spot with Kennys Vargas (who will also back-up at 1B) now here since he can hit the crap out of a baseball.  Vargs knocked out nine dingers and ten doubles in just 234 plate appearances, racking up an isolated power metric that would have put him in the Top 40 in the majors if he had qualified.  Considering he's like 16 years old or something that bodes well for the future.  Assuming more experience helps move his walk and strikeout rates closer to his minor league numbers (a dangerous assumption, to be sure), he could be in for a big year.  He crushed the ball in spring training with 1 HR every 14 ABs and everyone loves to watch fat guys launch baseballs out of the yard so expect him to be a fan favorite.

OUTFIELD:  What a mess.  Aaron Hicks ruined everything, and he's back in the minors again meaning Jordan Schafer, he of the career .621 OPS, will man center, flanked by the immobile Oswaldo Arcia and the ancient Torii Hunter in what is basically guaranteed to be the worst defensive outfield in the majors.  Backing up a bunch of pitchers who don't strike anyone out.  Great plan.

Ok I guess there's some upside.  Arcia is still really young at 24 and he was one of just three players under 24 last year to hit more than 20 home runs.  He still strikes out a ton but at least his power and walk rates got better last year, which is a good sign for future development.  His fielding also improved from "oh my god" to "jeez this guy is terrible", which might be his ceiling.  Hunter has been pretty much the same player the last five years, at least offensively, and if he can do it again and provide "leadership" or whatever he's probably worth having around.  That being said, if you think he's any kind of defensive wizard anymore you're sorely mistaken as he's now well below average even at a corner spot (stupid Father Time!).  That said he can't be any worse than the Willingham/Kubel/Parmelee trio of death that spent time out there last year, so he's got that going for him.

Schafer is the wild card, sort of, mainly because the Twins opted against giving Hicks a third year out of camp (or something radical like bringing Eddie Rosario up ahead of schedule) despite Schafer never really doing much of anything batted ball-wise.  He's fast, bad at hitting, and white so you know he's gritty and full of hustle and heart, but in his 147 plate appearance sample with the Twins last year he managed to hit exactly league average and it was, by far, the most successful stint of his major league career.  Somehow between the Twins and Braves last year he stole 30 bases (in 37 attempts) despite just 240 plate appearances which seems completely insane to me since "getting on base" isn't really in his wheelhouse but clearly he can run, which feels exciting.  He can play a passable CF as well, so I guess it's better than throwing an inanimate carbon rod out there.

Outfield back-ups will include a handful of starts from Escobar, that god damn Nunez, and teeny tiny Shane Robinson who goes by Suga Shane on Twitter.  He'll fit in with the Twins since he's proven he can't hit over 452 career plate appearances.  He's a 30 year old non-prospect who didn't hit in the minors either until he was much older than his competition, but a mediocre Spring Training won him a job over Hicks, though perhaps giving Hicks a regular role at AAA is for the best and I really don't know who else would be better than Robinson since they didn't sign anybody else and let's be honest it probably would have been a former Twin who was well beyond his prime anyway.  Robinson is a good fielder so he'll probably have some value plugging in as a defensive replacement in the late innings when the Twins stumble into a lead.


Overall, looking like a so-so offense.  They'll most likely have above average hitters in 7 of the 9 spots and the other two either have serious bounce back potential (Mauer) or tremendous speed as an asset (Schafer).  The bench is pretty bad unless Pinto bounces back but it's the American League so there probably won't be too much pinch hitting anyway.  Switch hitting Escobar is the only possible lefty swinger off the bench but he's been brutal against righties in his career so yeah, I'd expect a lot of sticking with the main nine guys.  It's a decent offense.  The real problem is the pitching, which I don't have the heart, energy, or ambition to tackle right now.  Later.

Adios, Kendrys. We hardly knew ya.

The Twins got the ball rolling today, trading Kendrys Morales, one of the three guys I said absolutely must be traded at this deadline, to the Seattle Mariners for middle reliever Stephen Pryor.

Morales was a bit of a weird signing by the Twins, grabbing him mid-season after his "you have to give up your #1 pick if you sign him status" had expired for $7 million.  It didn't make a ton of sense to me because the Twins don't really throw around that kind of money, they already had a glut of slow DH/1B/corner OF types, and signing someone like Morales seemed like the kind of move a team on the verge of the playoffs would make, which the Twins clearly weren't.  Then again, at the time I said it makes sense to see if he can move the needle on your offense at all, and if not hope you can flip him at the deadline, so all-in-all a good signing.

Naturally Morales didn't really cooperate.  After a hot start he's now hitting .234/.259/.325, by the far the worst season of his career (you probably don't remember this, but back in 2009 he finished 5th in AL MVP voting).  He's never OPSed below .785 in a full season, yet is at .584 this year with just one home run in 162 plate appearances.  He's basically been a disaster at the plate, walking at about half his career rate while popping up twice as often, and combined with poor defense he's actually played at a level below replacement level this year.  Obviously this kind of performance torpedoed his value in the trade market, but the Twins were at least able to get back a young, capable reliever who is somewhat proven and under their control through 2018.

Seattle drafted Pryor as a reliever in the 5th round of the 2010 draft, and although he was never at the top of any of their prospect ratings on the lists I saw he usually fell somewhere in the teens.  He was a definite strikeout pitcher in the low minors, appearing in the closer role and putting up K/9 numbers in the 14s and 15s.  Those numbers dipped as his competition level increased, but remained respectably around 10, however his walks went up to a concerning level.  In 2013 he got hit with a couple of injuries and ended up only throwing 11 innings between the majors and minors, and has spent most of this season at AAA, with a little bit of time in AA and one appearance of 1.2 innings in the majors (against the Twins).

In 31 innings at Tacoma (AAA) he struck out 27 and walked 18, a horrible ratio, which helped lead to a 1.42 WHIP and 4.65 ERA.  Really though that's not the point because he's clearly a different pitcher since the injuries.  His fastball in 2012 averaged 96.3 mph.  His fastball this year, his first back from the injury, averaged just 91.7 mph.  That is a major, major drop.  I realize his 1.2 innings in the majors this year is a teeny tiny sample size, but he did throw 23 fastballs so it's not completely insignificant either, and the reduction in strikeouts in the minors, just 7.8 per nine this year, backs it up.

So the Twins traded Morales for a bit of a gamble, a bit of a reclamation project, but one with significant upside.  If he returns to his pre-injury form he has closer potential, perhaps even as Glen Perkins replacement when he gets too expensive.  If he never recovers, all you've lost is a couple months of a player who you weren't going to re-sign anyway, and who wasn't that good this season any way.  Would have been nice if Morales would have actually, you know, hit this year and the Twins could have nabbed a mid-level type of prospect at least, but this is a worthwhile gamble, for sure.  Now let's hurry up and trade Josh Willingham to the Royals for Christian Binford, Kurt Suzuki to the Orioles for Mike Wright and Drew Dosch, and Jared Burton to the Blue Jays for L.B. Dantzler.

It's going to be awesome if any of those trades actually happen.

FUN FACT:  Remember in 2012 when Seattle pitched that weird no-hitter with six pitchers being involved?  Kevin Millwood started and pitched 6 no hit innings, but then hurt his groin and couldn't continue so six relievers came on and closed out with a combined 3 more no hit innings.  Those relievers were Charlie Furbush (tee hee), Lucas Luetge, Brandon League, Tom Wilhelmsen, and............Stephen Pryor.  Yep, our Stephen Pryor.  He pitched two thirds of inning, walking two guys before getting a strikeout to close out the seventh.

And he got the win.

Twins and the Trade Deadline

We're nearly at the all-star break, which means we're a fair way past the first half of the season but everyone's required to refer to it as the first half anyway.  It's also a good time to look back on what has transpired thus far and what I hope to see in the 2nd half, mainly because that's what everyone does at the all-star break.  The most exciting part of the second half for a non-contending team is the trade deadline, so here's what the Twins should be looking to do:

First off, the Twins are not contending for the Wild Card, so put that out of your silly little head right now.  They are currently 9.5 out of the second Wild Card spot with six teams either ahead of tied with them.  It's not happening, no matter how optimistic Dan Gladden wants you to be.  In that case, the Twins need to be ready and willing to sell off anybody and everybody who isn't a clear part of their future plans.  That means everybody outside of Joe Mauer (untradeable in any case), Brian Dozier, Danny Santana, Oswaldo Arcia, Kyle Gibson, and probably Eduardo Escobar (just in case he's actually good) should be available for the right trade, and yes I'm including Glen Perkins.

Perkins is an elite level closer - yes elite - who is having the unluckiest year of his career (career high BABIP and career low LOB%) and is still putting up good numbers including a career best K/9 and BB/9.  Considering he'll make just about $17 million through 2017 with a team option for $6.5 mil in 2018, he's an extremely valuable commodity - assuming you can find a team who overvalues relief pitching.  The Twins won't be a contender until at least 2016 in my opinion, so if you can get a monster offer for Perkins you have two more seasons to develop a new closer.  The Tigers, Jays, Yankees, and Angels all rank in the bottom 10 in the majors in bullpen ERA and all have deep pockets and are known to make splashy moves when deemed necessary.  It's probably worth making a phone call, or at least answering the phone.

The other player I'd consider tradeable, but only for a great offer is Phil Hughes.  Not because I think he's suddenly become Cy Young, but because you do need to field a full rotation next season and with any luck they find a way to unload Ricky Nolasco and Kevin Correia for.......something.  Hughes has looked rejuvenated this year, and there's enough behind his numbers to at least suggest this isn't a fluke.  He's signed to a very affordable deal ($8m per) and is signed through 2016, so if the Twins hold on to him they'll have him through that first season where I'm hoping they're competing for a playoff spot (2016).

The only other guy I would even consider holding out and passing on trading if you don't get a really good offer is Trevor Plouffe.  It's pretty clear who he is at this point - a .240ish hitter with good pop, decent plate discipline, and decent defense at 3B - not a monster asset but a pretty decent player.  Considering he's under team control through 2017 and is making just $2.4m he's a pretty good value, so there's no reason to rush on him.  That being said, with Miguel Sano theoretically on the way and hopefully entrenched at third by 2016, he's not a necessary cog so any above market trade offer should be jumped on.

Literally everyone else is eminently tradeable, although most either have an unwieldy contract (Nolasco) or are just plain old too crappy to be considered desirable by anyone (everyone else).  Two guys who should hold enough value who absolutely need to be traded are Josh Willingham and Kurt Suzuki.  Willingham is a free agent after this season and it's doubtful the Twins will resign him, so come trade deadline dangle him out there and take whatever the top offer is - there's absolutely zero reason for Willingham to finish the season on the Twins' roster.

Suzuki is a bit more complicated, given that he's having a career year, made the All-Star team, and seems so much like Gardy's kind of guy it's actually painful.  On the other hand, he's on a one year deal and some of his numbers look pretty fluky.  Suzuki could be an ideal fill-in for a contending team needing catching help, whether just for depth or because of an injury, and Suzuki has hit well enough this year that he could offer help at DH or simply pinch hitting as well.  The Orioles lead the AL East but have very little at catcher now that they've lost Matt Wieters, while they're getting chased by Toronto who has gotten nothing this year from the position.  The Dodgers are another potential trade partner considering Drew Butera leads all Dodger catchers in plate appearances this season.

In the bullpen there's probably some potential to move Jared Burton, Casey Fien, and Brian Duensing.  Burton is putting up career worst numbers but should have enough of a track record to garner some interest from a pitching starved quasi-contender.  He's on the hook for a $3.6m team option next year with a buyout of just $200k, so it's not like any team would be making a major investment to acquire him. Fien is putting up his third straight solid season and is under team control all the way through 2018 so I could see holding on to him - maybe he's the future closer if they get a overwhelming offer for Perkins and actually pull the trigger.  Duensing has pretty much established who he is at this point, but his ERA is at his career low even if his peripherals aren't any better than usual and he's been very good against lefties in his career so he could draw some interest.  Hopefully.

Simply put, the Twins aren't going anywhere for at least another season and they have enough trade chips here that they should make this next month pretty interesting - SHOULD.  Willingham and Suzuki really should be traded and if the management likes them that much they'll have the opportunity to bring them back a la Rick Aguilera.  At least one out of Burton and Duensing should be traded, and there are other guys who could draw interest including blockbuster potential with Perkins.  It should be fun leading up to the trade deadline.  Yet somehow I get the feeling it will be all anticipation with no pay-off.  Again.  At some point this organization needs to realize they aren't developing players like they used to, and get more aggressive with trades and free agency (to be fair we did see a little of this last offseason) in order to get back to being competitive.  Or just keep missing the playoffs.

[EDIT:  Just realized I somehow completely forgot Kendrys Morales.  Absolutely needs to be traded.  Hopefully he gets hot again.]