When I said at the bottom of yesterday's post that there weren't really any games with bubble implications last night, I was counting Virginia as a lock. After blowing a home game to Florida State last night they're suddenly looking a wee bit shakier. They're probably still in good shape (losing to FSU isn't anywhere near a bad loss), but absolutely need to win at Maryland this weekend or the ACC Tournament is going to be nerve-wracking. Elsewhere Washington avoided a bad loss by smoking USC on the road and Oregon won a bubble elimination game by knocking of Colorado at home. Oregon is still not anywhere near in, but they are still in the conversation. And that's about it.
BIG SKY (saturday):
My third team I root for (behind Minnesota, then Iowa State) resides here in Weber State, and they look solid once again this year. Unfortunately it's a pretty down year in the mountains, with only Weber and Montana having anything resembling good seasons. Not that it really matters, I'm not sure if I can recall the Big Sky ever getting an at-large, and that's not likely to change any time soon.
Favorite: Montana. The Grizzlies win over Weber on Tuesday bumped them a game ahead of the Wildcats and into first place. Not that it really matters, because only six teams make the tournament and the 1 and 2 seeds get byes, so it's win one each and then Montana and Weber face off again.
Sleeper: Eastern Washington. There's not really anything special about the Eagles, but they play at a fast pace and don't turn it over so they'll get plenty of shots. Unfortunately they can't shoot. But what if they could? Think about that.
W's Pick: Weber State. Of course I'm going to pick Weber, but in this case it makes sense. Their best player is point guard Damian Lillard who's second in the country in scoring at 24.5 per game, and he's good enough to take over and bring the Wildcats back to the tournament where we could have Harold Arceneaux part II: Shorter and Whiter.
MID-AMERICAN (monday):
Seems as if every year the MAC is almost a two-bid league. Like, every year either Akron or Kent State is close but they can't get over the hump, and by not over the hump I mean they can't even get themselves on the Bubble. But somehow they always seem to have a team that's close. I don't know, maybe I'm a weirdo.
Favorite: Akron. And, once again, the Zips would be that team this year. Coming into their bracket buster game against Oral Roberts they were 19-7 and 11-1 in league with no real bad losses, and a win over ORU would have probably moved them from off the bubble to the bottom of it. Instead they lost to the Golden Eagles and followed that up by losing two of the next three. They're still the class of the league at 12-3 (pending Friday night's regular season finale at Kent State) and the definite favorite.
Sleeper: Ohio. This was supposed to be a big year for the Bobcats who were returning six of their top 8 scorers plus adding a couple "impact" transfers and some good freshmen. It hasn't quite worked out to be their year, but Ohio is still the best defensive team in the MAC and D.J. Cooper is still around, the point man who was instrumental in leading Ohio to a MAC Tourney win as a freshman, not to mention scoring 23 with 8 assists in their first round upset over Georgetown.
W's Pick: Ohio. I remember Cooper and what he did as a freshman and it wouldn't shock me to see it happen again. Plus, if it wasn't for a couple of bizarre mid-season losses to Eastern Michigan and Toledo the Bobcats would be 12-3 and tied with Akron for first place, not to mention they just pasted the Zips by 24 a week ago.
MID-EASTERN ATLANTIC (monday):
One of the worst conferences, and always one of the worst conferences (never ranked better than 30th in the land according to kenpom.com), the MEAC nonetheless can produce some interesting stuff. Like Reggie Holmes. How could you forget Reggie Holmes? Simply put, the best chucker I've ever seen - and by best I don't mean most skilled, although he did nearly lead the nation in scoring. So that's why, no matter what, I will always partially love the MEAC. That and they have Bethune-Cookman, which is still my favorite name for a college ever.
Favorite: Savannah State. In 2005 Savannah State finished the year 0-28, the first winless D-I team since 1992. A few short years later they set the record for fewest points in a half after scoring just 4 against Kansas State on 1-23 shooting in the second half. Now they're the #1 seed in the MEAC Tournament after going 14-2 this year. Quite the turnaround. Also there's a chance they're not 100% D-I eligible yet so it's actually possible they might not be playing in this tournament in which case they're not really the #1 seed, obviously. I kind of tried to look it up but after searching for like, a minute I couldn't find anything so I quit.
Sleeper: Coppin State. In a league that's just bad you end up with a whole ton of horrid offensive teams. Coppin State is the exception. They rank 53rd in the NCAA in points per game and 124th in offensive efficiency, which may not sound like much but it's the best in the conference by far and only Delaware State is even close.
W's Pick: Coppin State. I don't know, it seems like they always win. Plus they at least shoot the three-pointer well which means they might be a halfway interesting 16 seed, assuming they win their play-in game.
SUMMIT LEAGUE (saturday):
You know who loves the Summit League? All the dorky Gopher fans who have already bailed on the team and have decided to throw all their support behind South Dakota State and their little boyfriend Nate Wolters, just like all those same dorks were all behind NDSU that one year when they made the tournament. Well you know who hates teams like those? Yeah, I do. Screw those nerds. I hate all teams from all states that border this one except Iowa State.
Favorite: Oral Roberts. The Golden Eagles are actually not that far off of the bubble thanks to an RPI of 44 and a 26-5 overall record. It's very doubtful they get a bid even if they make the final but lose, but the Golden Eagles have wins over Xavier and Akron and held tough with Gonzaga and West Virginia. I very much hope they make it because they could give somebody a nice tussle in round one.
Sleeper: Oakland. The Golden Grizzlies (really? Two "golden" teams in the same conference?) had a bit of a fall-off after losing Keith Benson from last year's super good team that somehow couldn't even beat Texas, but they still finished third in the league this year and have Reggie Hamilton back. Hamilton is the leading scorer in the nation while still managing to chip in 5.1 assists per game and he had an absolutely monster Summit tourney last year and had a great game against Texas. He's absolutely capable of carrying this team to a title.
W's Pick: South Dakota State. I'd love to see ORU or Oakland have a chance to take a run at somebody, but because life loves irritating me I'm sure the stupid Jackrabbits will end up making it. At least my cousin will be happy since she's alumni. Unless she went to USD. I have to be honest, I'm not exactly sure. Maybe I'm not the best cousin.
SUN BELT (saturday):
For much of the year Middle Tennessee State was bringing back the memories of when the Sun Belt used to be good with Courtney Lee and Taco Hawk running around for Western Kentucky and whoever used to be on South Alabama doing good things and all that jazz. Then they lost to that same WKU team in the regular season finale, and since WKU's RPI is in the sub-200 range and MTSU had basically zero margin for error, they really better win this tournament.
Favorite: Middle Tennessee. I just said that, dummy, pay attention. The Blue Raiders might not have any "holy shit" type wins, but they did beat Ole Miss, Akron, Belmont, and Loyola Marymount and crushed UCLA (which sounded better earlier in the year, but still). They also rank in kenpom's top 100 for both offensive and defensive efficiency, and you know how many teams can say that? Well, a lot, actually, but not too many from conferences like the Sun Belt.
Sleeper: Denver. If I remember correctly, Denver was the preseason favorite to win the Sun Belt, and after some early season issues they've won their last four to close out the year and finish 11-5, and also beat MTSU in their last meeting.
W's Pick: Denver. Check these stats: The Pioneers shoot 40.1% from three, 11th in the country, and compliment that by shooting 55.9% from two, which is second best in the nation (behind Missouri). They also play at a really slow pace (326th) so if they could just stop somebody they'd be money. I'd really like to see them get in because I think they'd be a fascinating first round match-up.
Plenty of bubble stuff going on this weekend, and that's without even counting the conference tournament stuff. Harvard has a big weekend starting tonight. If they can sweep Columbia and Cornell on the road they'll lock up at least a tie for the Ivy Title, and those two wins might be enough to get them in anyway. Texas has a huge chance to get the giant win they desperately need at Kansas, although that might be too tall an order. Teams like UCONN (vs. Pitt), Memphis (@ Tulsa), St. Louis (@ Duquesne), Kansas State (vs. Okla State), Washington (@ UCLA), Cincy (@ Nova), Miami (vs. BC), Miss State (vs Arkansas), Seton Hall (@DePaul), Oregon (vs. Utah), Virginia (@ Maryland), and Arizona (@ ASU) need to avoid a loss, while Southern Miss is probably fine either way but a win @ Marshall would go a long way. Perhaps the biggest bubble game of the weekend is WVU @ South Florida - the winner is probably in, the loser will need to make a decent run in the Big East tournament.
Also Mrs. W just got back from an early screening of Project X and told me it was like a combination of Superbad, Hangover, and Can't Hardly Wait. She then told me it was a terrible movie. lolwut? Those are like, three of the best movies of all-time, can't possibly see how this would be terrible. I think she might be a bit touched in the head, but don't tell her I said that.
Friday, March 2, 2012
Thursday, March 1, 2012
Thursday - Friday Tourneys
There were some games with major bubble implications last night, and in most cases they've moved teams closer towards the good. Both Cincinnati (over Marquette) and South Florida (over Louisville) picked up major, major victories against top level RPI teams (Marquette = 7, L'Ville = 28) which, fortunately, is exactly what both teams needed. You can also add Colorado State to the "doin' good things" list, because by beating UNLV at home that gives them another huge win (UNLV RPI = 11). You can probably move all three teams to locks, or at least pretty close to it. Speaking of locks, Alabama and Purdue move into that territory, if the weren't already there, with wins over Auburn and Penn State (thus avoiding a late bad loss). Southern Miss also avoided a bad loss by taking down SMU. With just Marshall left the Eagles are in good shape as long as they don't drop one too early in the C-USA Tournament, and Mississippi State (win over South Carolina in OT) and Texas (win over Oklahoma) stayed alive.
It wasn't all sunshine and puppy dogs, however, with the biggest heartbreak coming from Evanston, where Northwestern made a furious comeback to tie the game only to have Ohio State score with 3 seconds left to steal back the victory. The loss doesn't crush the Wildcats NCAA bid hopes and hopefully doesn't crush their spirit, because getting that win would have all but guaranteed them a bid. Miami also picked up a hurtful loss, losing at NC State. It hurts more than the Wildcats loss to Ohio State, even if it doesn't feel like it
AMERICA EAST (Thurs):
One of the worst conferences in the country (kenpom.com ranks it 29th out of 32), but that's mainly due to the deadweight at the bottom (including 1-28 Binghampton). The top couple of teams are decent, and this conference has given us some memorable March moments over the years like Vermont's win over Syacuse in the first round and Albany's near upset of #1 seed UCONN.
Favorite: Stony Brook. The Seawolves ended Vermont's three-year run as regular season champions (which resulted in only one NCAA Tournament appearance). They rank as team #122 on kenpom, which puts them in the same class as Penn State, for whatever that's worth.
Sleeper: Albany. The Greyhounds (great nicknames in this conference, seriously) finished fourth and boast the leagues best offense, including two of the top-5 scorers in the league. Teams like that can get hot and light things up in a short tournament.
W's Pick: Vermont. It would be kind of poetic to see the 2nd place Catamounts beat Stony Brook for the bid, since the same scenario happened last year with the team's flip-flopped. Plus Vermont finished the season out
MISSOURI VALLEY (Thurs):
Remember back when the MVC was the darlings of the NCAA and then became incredibly overrated and then just plain sucked? Well they're back with a couple of sweet 16 caliber teams including one team I think could make a Final Four run, and a whole bunch of decent teams who could surprise. Wichita State and Creighton are both locks to get at-large bids if they fall, but everybody else is going to need to win in St. Louis to make the dance.
Favorite: Wichita State. I have to be honest, I've come to love this team and seriously think they have Final four potential. Super efficient on offense, great defensively, with a very balanced team featuring seven big-time contributors, all of whom are juniors or seniors. And look at their four losses this year: Alabama, Temple (in OT), Creighton, and Drake (3 OT). Not a bad loss among them even if Drake is a little iffy. Love this team.
Sleeper: Northern Iowa. There are a whole mess of teams at 9-9 and you could pick any one of them here, but since nobody beat both Wichita and Creighton I'm going to just pick Northern Iowa here, solely because they shoot a ton of threes and they shoot them well - always a good combo for a sleeper run.
W's Pick: Creighton. Even though I think Wichita is the better team I have a feeling about Creighton for this tournament. Doug McDermott is a beast and Antoine Young can change a game all by himself. Plus I'd rather see Wichita with a lower seed because then when I put them in the Elite 8 I'll be the only one in the country who does. Sucka MC!
NORTHEAST CONFERENCE (Thurs):
A bit of an up year for the NEC, due to some decent out of conference wins (not good wins as we define them for bubble teams, but good for the NEC) with Wagner beating Pitt, Princeton, and Penn, Long Island knocking off Vermont, and Robert Morris beating LaSalle, Duquesne, and Ohio. So, you know, good for them.
Favorite: LIU-Brooklyn. The Blackbirds, who are also Miles Tarver's favorite team, didn't have as good a non-conference schedule as fellow top of the leaguers Wagner and RMU, but they did roll through league play and finished 16-2. And they're doing it by getting to line, as they have taken 49.5% as many free throws as they have field goal attempts, which is surprising 2nd in the nation, and they make them at a 73% clip, good for 55th. Such a weird stat.
Sleeper: Central Connecticut State. I don't know if they're any good, but I wanted to talk about them here simply because they have three players in the top 4 in the league in scoring: Kyle Horton is second in the league at 18.7ppg, Kyle Vinales is third at 18.0, and Robby Ptacek is fourth at 17.6. So weird. Those three score 78% of their team's points. I've never seen anything like that before.
W's Pick: Central Connecticut State. I can't get over it. It's incredible. They're all guards and two of them are seniors so a run is possible, plus it's just so cool. The three of them have combined to take 1,211 shots this season. The rest of the team has taken just 419, which is less than the Vinales guy and slightly more than either of the other two. This is the coolest thing I've ever heard of.
COLONIAL (friday):
Super interesting conference this year, at least if you ask a nerd like me, because there are two teams here fighting for bids: Drexel and VCU. If either team makes it to the final and loses they'll probably make it in (or if they win it, of course) but if either loses prior to that they're probably out. And in a deep league like the CAA with five teams among kenpom's top 110, it's going to take a very good team to make it to the final.
Favorite: Drexel. The Dragons won the league thanks to a 17-game win streak. They win because of their defense, which is absolutely stifling and the 7th hardest in the country to make shots against (the rest of the top 7 are all tournament locks). They don't turn you over, but they don't give up many good looks and don't allow second chances.
Sleeper: Georgia State. Old Dominion, George Mason, and Delaware are all probably more likely to win than Georgia State, but the Panthers were the only team this year to beat both VCU and Drexel, and that's gotta count for something.
W's Pick: Drexel. I already talked about their defense, but in a league with a heavy emphasis on that side of the ball (five teams in the CAA rank in the top 40 toughest defenses to make shots against), the Dragons sport the most effective offense and can score against these other squads. In fact, only Drexel and VCU rank in kenpom's top 150 in offensive efficiency. So really the CAA is a lot like the Big 10.
METRO ATLANTIC (friday):
Iona is the new Manhattan, which instantly reminds me of how much fun it was to have Luis Flores leading the Jaspers around. There was a time not so long ago when the only conferences that played Friday nights were the MAAC and the Ivy, and since the Ivy was boring what were a couple of gambling degenerates supposed to do but play the MAAC games. Man, Bogart and I knew just about everything there was to know about that conference back then. The glory days, I like to call them.
Favorite: Iona. The Gaels are in pretty solid shape to grab an NCAA at-large bid even if they don't win the tournament, but they'd be better off getting to the final because a loss prior to that is a loss against a RPI sub-100 team, and that could put just enough doubt in the committee's mind that they'll screw it up and leave Iona out.
Sleeper: Fairfield. The Stags were supposed to be right with Iona at the top of the conference with a shot at securing at at-large. It hasn't quite worked out with Fairfield finishing fourth in the conference at 12-6 and an overall record of just 17-13, but they still have a good enough backcourt to be dangerous.
W's Pick: Iona. I have to pick the Gaels because it would just be a shame to have them not make the tournament. I mean, Scott Machado leads the country with 10.1 assists per game! You know the last time somebody finished the year with double-digit assists per game? Well I don't because ESPN's stat archive thing only goes back to 2001, but it's been at least that long.
SOUTHERN (friday):
This conference is pretty bad these days. Davidson is solid again after a few post-Curry down years, but teams like Charleston and Wofford are significantly worse than last year (losing Noah Dahlman and Andrew Goudelock will do that), and the bottom of the conference is the pits. Despite Wofford and Charleston's step backs, they're still the clear #2 and #3 in the league.
Favorite: Davidson. Unfortunately for the Wildcats, two losses in a league this down is bad, and one of those losses coming to Samford (RPI 266) is a killer, particularly with too many questionable losses and not enough good wins outside of that stunner at Kansas. Hard to believe a team that won in Kansas City needs to win their conference tournament to get into the NCAAs, but here we are.
Sleeper: UNC-Greensboro. Davidson is head and shoulders above everybody else so it's hard to pin down any other team with a chance to beat them, but how about the Spartans? After starting the season 2-14, they went on a 10-1 tear to win the North Division. Of course, they're now on a 3-game losing streak, but hey, I gotta pick somebody.
W's Pick: Davidson. Yep, another favorite. They're just so much better than everyone else. I mean, Kansas's losses this year are against Kentucky, Duke, Missouri, Iowa State, and Davidson.
In a really weird scenario I can never remember seeing before this close to selection Sunday there's almost nothing tonight that affects the bubble. The only two games that matter are Washington @ USC and Colorado @ Oregon, and that last one barely does. Every other game tonight involves teams that are already solidly in or are completely out. I guess you could toss the Michigan @ Illinois game in there and say if Illinois wins they still have a very outside shot, so I guess we'll do that and call it three games of note.
It wasn't all sunshine and puppy dogs, however, with the biggest heartbreak coming from Evanston, where Northwestern made a furious comeback to tie the game only to have Ohio State score with 3 seconds left to steal back the victory. The loss doesn't crush the Wildcats NCAA bid hopes and hopefully doesn't crush their spirit, because getting that win would have all but guaranteed them a bid. Miami also picked up a hurtful loss, losing at NC State. It hurts more than the Wildcats loss to Ohio State, even if it doesn't feel like it
AMERICA EAST (Thurs):
One of the worst conferences in the country (kenpom.com ranks it 29th out of 32), but that's mainly due to the deadweight at the bottom (including 1-28 Binghampton). The top couple of teams are decent, and this conference has given us some memorable March moments over the years like Vermont's win over Syacuse in the first round and Albany's near upset of #1 seed UCONN.
Favorite: Stony Brook. The Seawolves ended Vermont's three-year run as regular season champions (which resulted in only one NCAA Tournament appearance). They rank as team #122 on kenpom, which puts them in the same class as Penn State, for whatever that's worth.
Sleeper: Albany. The Greyhounds (great nicknames in this conference, seriously) finished fourth and boast the leagues best offense, including two of the top-5 scorers in the league. Teams like that can get hot and light things up in a short tournament.
W's Pick: Vermont. It would be kind of poetic to see the 2nd place Catamounts beat Stony Brook for the bid, since the same scenario happened last year with the team's flip-flopped. Plus Vermont finished the season out
MISSOURI VALLEY (Thurs):
Remember back when the MVC was the darlings of the NCAA and then became incredibly overrated and then just plain sucked? Well they're back with a couple of sweet 16 caliber teams including one team I think could make a Final Four run, and a whole bunch of decent teams who could surprise. Wichita State and Creighton are both locks to get at-large bids if they fall, but everybody else is going to need to win in St. Louis to make the dance.
Favorite: Wichita State. I have to be honest, I've come to love this team and seriously think they have Final four potential. Super efficient on offense, great defensively, with a very balanced team featuring seven big-time contributors, all of whom are juniors or seniors. And look at their four losses this year: Alabama, Temple (in OT), Creighton, and Drake (3 OT). Not a bad loss among them even if Drake is a little iffy. Love this team.
Sleeper: Northern Iowa. There are a whole mess of teams at 9-9 and you could pick any one of them here, but since nobody beat both Wichita and Creighton I'm going to just pick Northern Iowa here, solely because they shoot a ton of threes and they shoot them well - always a good combo for a sleeper run.
W's Pick: Creighton. Even though I think Wichita is the better team I have a feeling about Creighton for this tournament. Doug McDermott is a beast and Antoine Young can change a game all by himself. Plus I'd rather see Wichita with a lower seed because then when I put them in the Elite 8 I'll be the only one in the country who does. Sucka MC!
NORTHEAST CONFERENCE (Thurs):
A bit of an up year for the NEC, due to some decent out of conference wins (not good wins as we define them for bubble teams, but good for the NEC) with Wagner beating Pitt, Princeton, and Penn, Long Island knocking off Vermont, and Robert Morris beating LaSalle, Duquesne, and Ohio. So, you know, good for them.
Favorite: LIU-Brooklyn. The Blackbirds, who are also Miles Tarver's favorite team, didn't have as good a non-conference schedule as fellow top of the leaguers Wagner and RMU, but they did roll through league play and finished 16-2. And they're doing it by getting to line, as they have taken 49.5% as many free throws as they have field goal attempts, which is surprising 2nd in the nation, and they make them at a 73% clip, good for 55th. Such a weird stat.
Sleeper: Central Connecticut State. I don't know if they're any good, but I wanted to talk about them here simply because they have three players in the top 4 in the league in scoring: Kyle Horton is second in the league at 18.7ppg, Kyle Vinales is third at 18.0, and Robby Ptacek is fourth at 17.6. So weird. Those three score 78% of their team's points. I've never seen anything like that before.
W's Pick: Central Connecticut State. I can't get over it. It's incredible. They're all guards and two of them are seniors so a run is possible, plus it's just so cool. The three of them have combined to take 1,211 shots this season. The rest of the team has taken just 419, which is less than the Vinales guy and slightly more than either of the other two. This is the coolest thing I've ever heard of.
COLONIAL (friday):
Super interesting conference this year, at least if you ask a nerd like me, because there are two teams here fighting for bids: Drexel and VCU. If either team makes it to the final and loses they'll probably make it in (or if they win it, of course) but if either loses prior to that they're probably out. And in a deep league like the CAA with five teams among kenpom's top 110, it's going to take a very good team to make it to the final.
Favorite: Drexel. The Dragons won the league thanks to a 17-game win streak. They win because of their defense, which is absolutely stifling and the 7th hardest in the country to make shots against (the rest of the top 7 are all tournament locks). They don't turn you over, but they don't give up many good looks and don't allow second chances.
Sleeper: Georgia State. Old Dominion, George Mason, and Delaware are all probably more likely to win than Georgia State, but the Panthers were the only team this year to beat both VCU and Drexel, and that's gotta count for something.
W's Pick: Drexel. I already talked about their defense, but in a league with a heavy emphasis on that side of the ball (five teams in the CAA rank in the top 40 toughest defenses to make shots against), the Dragons sport the most effective offense and can score against these other squads. In fact, only Drexel and VCU rank in kenpom's top 150 in offensive efficiency. So really the CAA is a lot like the Big 10.
METRO ATLANTIC (friday):
Iona is the new Manhattan, which instantly reminds me of how much fun it was to have Luis Flores leading the Jaspers around. There was a time not so long ago when the only conferences that played Friday nights were the MAAC and the Ivy, and since the Ivy was boring what were a couple of gambling degenerates supposed to do but play the MAAC games. Man, Bogart and I knew just about everything there was to know about that conference back then. The glory days, I like to call them.
Favorite: Iona. The Gaels are in pretty solid shape to grab an NCAA at-large bid even if they don't win the tournament, but they'd be better off getting to the final because a loss prior to that is a loss against a RPI sub-100 team, and that could put just enough doubt in the committee's mind that they'll screw it up and leave Iona out.
Sleeper: Fairfield. The Stags were supposed to be right with Iona at the top of the conference with a shot at securing at at-large. It hasn't quite worked out with Fairfield finishing fourth in the conference at 12-6 and an overall record of just 17-13, but they still have a good enough backcourt to be dangerous.
W's Pick: Iona. I have to pick the Gaels because it would just be a shame to have them not make the tournament. I mean, Scott Machado leads the country with 10.1 assists per game! You know the last time somebody finished the year with double-digit assists per game? Well I don't because ESPN's stat archive thing only goes back to 2001, but it's been at least that long.
SOUTHERN (friday):
This conference is pretty bad these days. Davidson is solid again after a few post-Curry down years, but teams like Charleston and Wofford are significantly worse than last year (losing Noah Dahlman and Andrew Goudelock will do that), and the bottom of the conference is the pits. Despite Wofford and Charleston's step backs, they're still the clear #2 and #3 in the league.
Favorite: Davidson. Unfortunately for the Wildcats, two losses in a league this down is bad, and one of those losses coming to Samford (RPI 266) is a killer, particularly with too many questionable losses and not enough good wins outside of that stunner at Kansas. Hard to believe a team that won in Kansas City needs to win their conference tournament to get into the NCAAs, but here we are.
Sleeper: UNC-Greensboro. Davidson is head and shoulders above everybody else so it's hard to pin down any other team with a chance to beat them, but how about the Spartans? After starting the season 2-14, they went on a 10-1 tear to win the North Division. Of course, they're now on a 3-game losing streak, but hey, I gotta pick somebody.
W's Pick: Davidson. Yep, another favorite. They're just so much better than everyone else. I mean, Kansas's losses this year are against Kentucky, Duke, Missouri, Iowa State, and Davidson.
In a really weird scenario I can never remember seeing before this close to selection Sunday there's almost nothing tonight that affects the bubble. The only two games that matter are Washington @ USC and Colorado @ Oregon, and that last one barely does. Every other game tonight involves teams that are already solidly in or are completely out. I guess you could toss the Michigan @ Illinois game in there and say if Illinois wins they still have a very outside shot, so I guess we'll do that and call it three games of note.
Tuesday, February 28, 2012
Here we Go! (Conference Tournament Previews)
I live blogged the second half of the Gopher/Badger game so it that's what you're here for you sicky just scroll down. But there's more important things to deal with. Yep, here we are, the most wonderful time of the year. I love the small conference tournaments that really kick-off March Madness, and they're getting started this week. Here's a quick look at the tournaments that start today, as well as a couple that have already gotten going. Yes, because I'm that kind of a nerd. I don't really care what you think, I love this crap.
ATLANTIC SUN:
Same story as the last several years, where Belmont is a legit sleeper to pull a first round upset, but due to conference strength as well as the Bruins inability to snag a big-time win, they'll need to win the conference tournament in order to gain a bid. Although I'm not really sure why they have such a good rep, in four tournament appearances they're 0-4 with only that one-point loss to Duke in 2008 being close. Of course, that'd be why they have that rep, because 99% of America loved them, if only for that brief window where they were in position to knock off the devil's team.
Favorite: Belmont, duh. They shoot the ball well and don't turn it over, two traits pretty unique to the Bruins within the A-Sun. Plus they're incredibly balanced with six players scoring at least 9.0 points per game, which means a rough night for one player won't screw them.
Sleeper: Mercer. Nobody is really close to as good as Belmont, but Mercer finished 13-5, Belmont swept them but merely by a combined 5 points, and the tournament is being held in Mercer's gym (where Belmont won by 1 after scoring the final 3 points in the last 31 seconds). Plus the Bears can at least kind of play defense.
W's Pick: Belmont. Not only are they more talented than the rest of the conference, they're loaded with upperclassmen who won't be intimidated by playing on the road.
BIG SOUTH (started Monday):
Nobody plays defense in this conference, which at least makes things entertaining. According to kenpom.com's defensive efficiency metric, only Winthrop at #189 even ranks in the top 200 in the country. That's at least fun, if not effective.
Favorite: UNC-Asheville. The Bulldogs rolled through the league with a 16-2 mark, and with stellar guards Matt Dickey and J.P. Primm they have the guard play you need to get through a tournament.
Sleeper: Coastal Carolina. A handful of team's in this conference have some surprising wins this year (CC over Clemson, Campbell over Iowa, Presbyterian over Cincy) but the Chanticleers are the only team who sustained any success following that win, finishing second in the league (plus Presbyterian isn't fully D-I eligible yet, and doesn't get to play. Sad).
W's Pick: Asheville. Primm and Dickey are seniors and, along with fellow senior and third best player Chris Stephenson, give the Bulldogs a great core back from last year's tournament championship team.
OHIO VALLEY:
Obviously the big story here is Murray State, a team that could lose in the first round of this tournament and still secure an NCAA at-large bid. What that means is that teams on the bubble need to be hoping and rooting for Murray to roll to the championship. Which also means this is all irrelevant to a Gopher fan. Kill me.
Favorite: Murray State. Maybe they don't have a string of super impressive non-conference wins (although Southern Miss, St. Mary's, and Memphis are a good string), but they've pretty much rolled through the OVC.
Sleeper: Morehead State. Yes, Tennessee State is the only team to beat the Racers this year, but I think in order for an OVC team to knock them off in this tournament it's going to be someone with some talent who gets hot from three and shoots a boatload of them. Morehead is the best candidate to do so.
W's Pick: Murray State. No other team is this far above it's conference mates in talent, ability, execution, and basically everything else. It would be a major upset for anybody else to win this.
PATRIOT LEAGUE:
I can't really think of a single semi-interesting thing to say about the Patriot League, but it is worth noting that the Patriot ranks as the 22nd best conference in the NCAA according to kenpom.com. The Ohio Valley, where your precious little Murray State squad plays, is ranked 24th. So there.
Favorite: Bucknell. You remember Bucknell, right? Slightly dangerous squad who the Minnesota beat to open the season and made everyone at least assume the Gophers wouldn't be terrible? Yeah, I hate them too.
Sleeper: Lehigh. Speaking of kenpom.com, his metrics actually rank the Mountain Hawks as the better offensive and defensive team (and overall as well, obviously). They also beat Bucknell at home and lost by just three on the road.
W's Pick: Lehigh. I want there to be as few NCAA Tournament teams the Gophers beat as possible because otherwise you're going to be dealing with dingleberries running around talking about how the Gophers beat this crappy small conference team who won a bid. No thanks.
WEST COAST CONFERENCE:
The biggest talking point when BYU moved over to the WCC was that adding the Cougars would help make the league stronger, and could even boost it to a three-bid league (with Gonzaga and St. Mary's). It might work. The Zags and Gaels are already in, but BYU still has work to do. They probably need to win a couple games in the tournament here, and if they can get past Gonzaga in the semis that might do it.
Favorite: St. Mary's. The Gaels won the conference regular season title by a game over Gonzaga, splitting the home-and-home with the Bulldogs in the process. The health of Stephen Holt, the team's third-leading scorer, who missed the final three regular season games is a big issue.
Sleeper: Loyola-Marymount. The Lions, who finished fourth in the WCC, can be very, very good (wins over St. Mary's, BYU, St. Louis, Valpo, and UCLA) and can be very, very bad (losses to Columbia, North Texas, Morgan State, and San Diego). You could say they're a bit of a two-face. If the coin comes up positive they have the ability to win this and steal a bid.
W's Pick: Gonzaga. They finished second in the league, but with seven wins in their last eight and no issues with pesky Loyola Marymount, the Bulldogs are the league's best, and with the league's staggered tournament format (Zaga and SMC get byes to the semifinals) they only have to win two games (for contrast, Loyola would have to win four).
HORIZON (started Tuesday):
League is wide open this year in sharp contrast to the last couple of years where Butler dominated. Also, for those college wonk idiots who are picking Butler to win this tournament you're idiots. Butler sucks this year. Other than winning 5 out of 6 to close the reg. season they've been terrible. The win over Purdue was their only good win this year (also winning @ Cleveland State is ok I guess) and they've lost to like everybody. Seriously if you read someone who picked Butler to win the Horizon you should track them down and stab them in the mouth with some sort of pointy stick. Also I'm writing this one after watching Gophers/Badgers whilst the rest were written early tonight, so you know, I'm pretty drunj.
Favorite: I don't know. I completely lost track of whatever window I had open that had the tournament seeds. I think it's Valpo. they used to have Bryce Drew and lost to Loyola Marymount in bracket busters. That's all I know.
Sleeper: Detroit. I think they did pretty ok this year but I like them because they have Ray Maccallum. And former Indiana guy Eli Holman. I think. That might have been last year.
W's Pick: Anybody but Butler cuz Eff those guys, am I right? They made last year's championship suck.
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ATLANTIC SUN:
Same story as the last several years, where Belmont is a legit sleeper to pull a first round upset, but due to conference strength as well as the Bruins inability to snag a big-time win, they'll need to win the conference tournament in order to gain a bid. Although I'm not really sure why they have such a good rep, in four tournament appearances they're 0-4 with only that one-point loss to Duke in 2008 being close. Of course, that'd be why they have that rep, because 99% of America loved them, if only for that brief window where they were in position to knock off the devil's team.
Favorite: Belmont, duh. They shoot the ball well and don't turn it over, two traits pretty unique to the Bruins within the A-Sun. Plus they're incredibly balanced with six players scoring at least 9.0 points per game, which means a rough night for one player won't screw them.
Sleeper: Mercer. Nobody is really close to as good as Belmont, but Mercer finished 13-5, Belmont swept them but merely by a combined 5 points, and the tournament is being held in Mercer's gym (where Belmont won by 1 after scoring the final 3 points in the last 31 seconds). Plus the Bears can at least kind of play defense.
W's Pick: Belmont. Not only are they more talented than the rest of the conference, they're loaded with upperclassmen who won't be intimidated by playing on the road.
BIG SOUTH (started Monday):
Nobody plays defense in this conference, which at least makes things entertaining. According to kenpom.com's defensive efficiency metric, only Winthrop at #189 even ranks in the top 200 in the country. That's at least fun, if not effective.
Favorite: UNC-Asheville. The Bulldogs rolled through the league with a 16-2 mark, and with stellar guards Matt Dickey and J.P. Primm they have the guard play you need to get through a tournament.
Sleeper: Coastal Carolina. A handful of team's in this conference have some surprising wins this year (CC over Clemson, Campbell over Iowa, Presbyterian over Cincy) but the Chanticleers are the only team who sustained any success following that win, finishing second in the league (plus Presbyterian isn't fully D-I eligible yet, and doesn't get to play. Sad).
W's Pick: Asheville. Primm and Dickey are seniors and, along with fellow senior and third best player Chris Stephenson, give the Bulldogs a great core back from last year's tournament championship team.
OHIO VALLEY:
Obviously the big story here is Murray State, a team that could lose in the first round of this tournament and still secure an NCAA at-large bid. What that means is that teams on the bubble need to be hoping and rooting for Murray to roll to the championship. Which also means this is all irrelevant to a Gopher fan. Kill me.
Favorite: Murray State. Maybe they don't have a string of super impressive non-conference wins (although Southern Miss, St. Mary's, and Memphis are a good string), but they've pretty much rolled through the OVC.
Sleeper: Morehead State. Yes, Tennessee State is the only team to beat the Racers this year, but I think in order for an OVC team to knock them off in this tournament it's going to be someone with some talent who gets hot from three and shoots a boatload of them. Morehead is the best candidate to do so.
W's Pick: Murray State. No other team is this far above it's conference mates in talent, ability, execution, and basically everything else. It would be a major upset for anybody else to win this.
PATRIOT LEAGUE:
I can't really think of a single semi-interesting thing to say about the Patriot League, but it is worth noting that the Patriot ranks as the 22nd best conference in the NCAA according to kenpom.com. The Ohio Valley, where your precious little Murray State squad plays, is ranked 24th. So there.
Favorite: Bucknell. You remember Bucknell, right? Slightly dangerous squad who the Minnesota beat to open the season and made everyone at least assume the Gophers wouldn't be terrible? Yeah, I hate them too.
Sleeper: Lehigh. Speaking of kenpom.com, his metrics actually rank the Mountain Hawks as the better offensive and defensive team (and overall as well, obviously). They also beat Bucknell at home and lost by just three on the road.
W's Pick: Lehigh. I want there to be as few NCAA Tournament teams the Gophers beat as possible because otherwise you're going to be dealing with dingleberries running around talking about how the Gophers beat this crappy small conference team who won a bid. No thanks.
WEST COAST CONFERENCE:
The biggest talking point when BYU moved over to the WCC was that adding the Cougars would help make the league stronger, and could even boost it to a three-bid league (with Gonzaga and St. Mary's). It might work. The Zags and Gaels are already in, but BYU still has work to do. They probably need to win a couple games in the tournament here, and if they can get past Gonzaga in the semis that might do it.
Favorite: St. Mary's. The Gaels won the conference regular season title by a game over Gonzaga, splitting the home-and-home with the Bulldogs in the process. The health of Stephen Holt, the team's third-leading scorer, who missed the final three regular season games is a big issue.
Sleeper: Loyola-Marymount. The Lions, who finished fourth in the WCC, can be very, very good (wins over St. Mary's, BYU, St. Louis, Valpo, and UCLA) and can be very, very bad (losses to Columbia, North Texas, Morgan State, and San Diego). You could say they're a bit of a two-face. If the coin comes up positive they have the ability to win this and steal a bid.
W's Pick: Gonzaga. They finished second in the league, but with seven wins in their last eight and no issues with pesky Loyola Marymount, the Bulldogs are the league's best, and with the league's staggered tournament format (Zaga and SMC get byes to the semifinals) they only have to win two games (for contrast, Loyola would have to win four).
HORIZON (started Tuesday):
League is wide open this year in sharp contrast to the last couple of years where Butler dominated. Also, for those college wonk idiots who are picking Butler to win this tournament you're idiots. Butler sucks this year. Other than winning 5 out of 6 to close the reg. season they've been terrible. The win over Purdue was their only good win this year (also winning @ Cleveland State is ok I guess) and they've lost to like everybody. Seriously if you read someone who picked Butler to win the Horizon you should track them down and stab them in the mouth with some sort of pointy stick. Also I'm writing this one after watching Gophers/Badgers whilst the rest were written early tonight, so you know, I'm pretty drunj.
Favorite: I don't know. I completely lost track of whatever window I had open that had the tournament seeds. I think it's Valpo. they used to have Bryce Drew and lost to Loyola Marymount in bracket busters. That's all I know.
Sleeper: Detroit. I think they did pretty ok this year but I like them because they have Ray Maccallum. And former Indiana guy Eli Holman. I think. That might have been last year.
W's Pick: Anybody but Butler cuz Eff those guys, am I right? They made last year's championship suck.
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Gophers vs. Badgers: Second Half Live Blog
Sure why not? Kids are gone and the wife and I hit the bar across the street for happy hour since the weather was so crappy, and well, it's 4 hours since then. So yeah. Let's go.
20:00 - Wisconsin couldn't shoot, and Ralph Sampson was super aggressive and assertive on the defensive end. I fully expect these things to continue. Also Andre Hollins is clearly a future star, and I do actually expect that to continue for two more years (because he'll go pro after his junior year, obviously).
20:00 - How long is this god damn half-time? I mean jesus, is this the super bowl?
19:46 - Jordan Taylor misses a wide open, and I mean wide open, three pointer. That seems to be the gophers' most effective defense tonight - just let Wisconsin suck. And the whole state does, amiright? I mean, if you put Wisconsin and Iowa into the Large Hadron Collider you'd just get this massive ball of drunken hick douchenss that you could then launch into outer space with some kind of giant water balloon sling shot, right? What?
18:58 - Gophers going clang clang clang like the little engine that could. The Nick Punto of trains, you know.
17:52 - Wide open three for Berggggrren, who misses (might have been Brewsewitz). It's working!!
17:38 - Announcer guy: "sometimes this Gopher team just doesn't think." Amen, brother man.
17:24 - Saul smith is yelling at someone on the Gopher bench. I assume that isn't good.
16:31 - Rodney Williams seems very upset with officials like, all the time lately. He might as well be a Gopher fan with all the bitching, particularly the dude who sits right next to us who has, almost literally, no idea what a foul is and isn't. And for the record, Williams fouled him with the body, even if the block was clean. Gophers 25, Wisconsin 22.
16:04 - 12-2 run by the Badgers to tie the game up. Never saw this one coming. Might just watch the Walking Dead. Yeah, the writing might be meh and the dialogue might be Lucas-esque and the actors might be woodenish, but you know, zombies and shit.
15:19 - Brusewitz misses an open three. Genius strategy by Tubby. Just let 'em shoot. Just like that dude at the Y who thinks he's all like whoa but really kind of sucks and you just let him shoot all game and he keeps missing and then he makes one and looks at you like "you can't lay off me son cuz I'm gonna hit it every time" and that's when you know you got 'em because he's going to just keep chucking and missing and you don't really have to expend any energy on defense anymore so you can save it for when you have the ball and light some chumps up. I love that guy.
14:20 - Sconnie misses a free throw but gets their own rebound. Lol. Doesn't matter though when Gasser misses an open three point shot. Still 25-25.
13:44 - Joe Coleman goes with the Rick Vaughn impression and throws it through the back of endzone at 99mph, looking for I assume a teammate.
12:53 - Now this play right here illustrates why Rodney Williams can be so frustrating. Gets the ball at the key, sees Berggren or some fat white guy on him so he takes it right past him, uses excellent body control to avoid the charge when Brust (might be Gasser) slides over, and makes the easy lay-up. Incredible quickness and athleticism. Just amazing. But three years in and no jumper? Might be easier to handle if he had the aggressiveness he showed on that play more than once a month.
12:43 - Has Julian Welch played tonight? I watched the pre-game and 1st half on the treadmill with no sound so if they said anything I didn't hear it, but I can't remember seeing him tonight.
11:57 - Andre Hollins goes up for a three and has it tipped and it heads straight out of bounds. Austin Hollins completely sells out and sacrifices his body to attempt to save it (even though it's going to be Gopher ball) and just tips it enough to make sure it's Wisconsin's ball. If I could sum up the season in one play I'm pretty sure that's it.
11:57 - By the way, shout out to Mrs. W who, besides being hot, put together our new treadmill all by herself yesterday. Good woman. Also a great cook. Second best in the house.
11:57 - Technical foul on Tubby, which is actually good to see. Actually turns out Hollins' didn't get his shot tipped, he actually got his arm smacked which caused the airball (and should have been a foul) so my bad to Austy. I shouldn't have doubted a kid whose cousin's dad is an NBA coach.
11:15 - It's now 32-27 Wisconsin. Sweet.
9:05 - This game is kind of putting me to sleep. Now 34-29. Also Josh Gasser is a girl.
8:53 - Ralphy!! Hammer dunk!! Doesn't count because he was fouled on the entry pass, but still. Deezam. Not sure on the spelling on that one. Do like this "getting back into the paint" stuff.
8:52 - Osenieks 1-2 from the line. Isn't he supposed to be a shooter but hits less than 50% from the line? Am I wrong here? I hope so, because that don't make no sense.
8:23 - Brust for 3. Huh. Maybe the whole "let 'em shoot" strategy isn't the best one. And that move by Andre Hollins was just ridiculous. Just went right by Jordan Taylor and then right at one of those fat Sconnie dues and made the lay-up. Hollins is going to be a star. Watching him kind of reminds me of watching LeSean McCoy. That either makes total sense to you or is really stupid. I vote for makes sense.
7:40 - Missed Badger free throw, Badger board, Taylor three-pointer, 41-32 Badgers. Any of you basketball nerds know where to find how often a team gives up an offensive board on a missed free throw? Pretty sure the Gophers lead the nation.
7:11 - Two made throws give Sampson 1,000 career points. I remain underwhelmed.
6:47 - Another made three for the Badgers and I'm pretty sure Andre Ingram just blew his knee out again. Poor dude. Actually he looks less knee-blowout-y now. Hopefully he's ok. Based on the nearly constant transfers out of this program you never know, he could be a starter next year.
6:01 - Oto probably just traveled on a fast break lay-up attempt, which he missed, and then tipped in his own miss. I'm trying to decide if that was pretty or ugly. Since I've had a couple beers let's go with the beer goggles and call it pretty.
5:08 - 44-36 Wisconsin. I wish I could just fast forward. This is the kind of game people make fun of nationally.
4:54 - I honestly have no idea which one is Bruskewitz and which one is Berggren. Also Brust vs. Gasser is a challenge. I can pick out Ryan Evans though, thanks to all that time misspent watching Kid N Play movies in my youth.
3:45 - Either an amazing touch pass by Williams or a fortunate bounce leads to a Sampson dunk. 46-40 Badgers. If this was any other B10 team I'd say they were at least in it.
2:42 - Andre Hollins takes a very aggressive, but not ill-advised, three pointer; Williams grabs the o-board by outjumping everyone, misses the putback, gets back up quicker than anyone else to grab another, gets fouled, and makes both free throws. That is exactly what Gopher fans need to concentrate on for next year. That hole sequence actually looked like a good, confident team. Also, if you're scoring at home, I'm now writing effusive praise for a sequence where the gophers shot 1-3 from the floor. Also they just showed a graphic that the Gophers have 3 assists tonight. Which, I suppose, isn't that bad when you consider I think they have about 8 field goals.
1:21 - Austin Hollins travels for no good reason whatsoever.
0:41 - Announcer guys aren't making much sense with their reasons, but the overall point is sound - the Gophers could really use an actual point guard. I love Andre Hollins, but, well, I don't know. I mean I guess he could be an actual point guard in the scoring point vein, but I think the team would be better if he could just be the scorer. They need a Darren Collison to his Russell Westbrook. Good thing they have both a good point guard on the current roster plus one of a quality pedigree coming in next year. The future is bright!
0:00 - Gophers lose 52-45. Sucks because the Gophers really needed this to land a top NIT seed. And thanks a bunch for not covering Badger asses.
20:00 - Wisconsin couldn't shoot, and Ralph Sampson was super aggressive and assertive on the defensive end. I fully expect these things to continue. Also Andre Hollins is clearly a future star, and I do actually expect that to continue for two more years (because he'll go pro after his junior year, obviously).
20:00 - How long is this god damn half-time? I mean jesus, is this the super bowl?
19:46 - Jordan Taylor misses a wide open, and I mean wide open, three pointer. That seems to be the gophers' most effective defense tonight - just let Wisconsin suck. And the whole state does, amiright? I mean, if you put Wisconsin and Iowa into the Large Hadron Collider you'd just get this massive ball of drunken hick douchenss that you could then launch into outer space with some kind of giant water balloon sling shot, right? What?
18:58 - Gophers going clang clang clang like the little engine that could. The Nick Punto of trains, you know.
17:52 - Wide open three for Berggggrren, who misses (might have been Brewsewitz). It's working!!
17:38 - Announcer guy: "sometimes this Gopher team just doesn't think." Amen, brother man.
17:24 - Saul smith is yelling at someone on the Gopher bench. I assume that isn't good.
16:31 - Rodney Williams seems very upset with officials like, all the time lately. He might as well be a Gopher fan with all the bitching, particularly the dude who sits right next to us who has, almost literally, no idea what a foul is and isn't. And for the record, Williams fouled him with the body, even if the block was clean. Gophers 25, Wisconsin 22.
16:04 - 12-2 run by the Badgers to tie the game up. Never saw this one coming. Might just watch the Walking Dead. Yeah, the writing might be meh and the dialogue might be Lucas-esque and the actors might be woodenish, but you know, zombies and shit.
15:19 - Brusewitz misses an open three. Genius strategy by Tubby. Just let 'em shoot. Just like that dude at the Y who thinks he's all like whoa but really kind of sucks and you just let him shoot all game and he keeps missing and then he makes one and looks at you like "you can't lay off me son cuz I'm gonna hit it every time" and that's when you know you got 'em because he's going to just keep chucking and missing and you don't really have to expend any energy on defense anymore so you can save it for when you have the ball and light some chumps up. I love that guy.
14:20 - Sconnie misses a free throw but gets their own rebound. Lol. Doesn't matter though when Gasser misses an open three point shot. Still 25-25.
13:44 - Joe Coleman goes with the Rick Vaughn impression and throws it through the back of endzone at 99mph, looking for I assume a teammate.
12:53 - Now this play right here illustrates why Rodney Williams can be so frustrating. Gets the ball at the key, sees Berggren or some fat white guy on him so he takes it right past him, uses excellent body control to avoid the charge when Brust (might be Gasser) slides over, and makes the easy lay-up. Incredible quickness and athleticism. Just amazing. But three years in and no jumper? Might be easier to handle if he had the aggressiveness he showed on that play more than once a month.
12:43 - Has Julian Welch played tonight? I watched the pre-game and 1st half on the treadmill with no sound so if they said anything I didn't hear it, but I can't remember seeing him tonight.
11:57 - Andre Hollins goes up for a three and has it tipped and it heads straight out of bounds. Austin Hollins completely sells out and sacrifices his body to attempt to save it (even though it's going to be Gopher ball) and just tips it enough to make sure it's Wisconsin's ball. If I could sum up the season in one play I'm pretty sure that's it.
11:57 - By the way, shout out to Mrs. W who, besides being hot, put together our new treadmill all by herself yesterday. Good woman. Also a great cook. Second best in the house.
11:57 - Technical foul on Tubby, which is actually good to see. Actually turns out Hollins' didn't get his shot tipped, he actually got his arm smacked which caused the airball (and should have been a foul) so my bad to Austy. I shouldn't have doubted a kid whose cousin's dad is an NBA coach.
11:15 - It's now 32-27 Wisconsin. Sweet.
9:05 - This game is kind of putting me to sleep. Now 34-29. Also Josh Gasser is a girl.
8:53 - Ralphy!! Hammer dunk!! Doesn't count because he was fouled on the entry pass, but still. Deezam. Not sure on the spelling on that one. Do like this "getting back into the paint" stuff.
8:52 - Osenieks 1-2 from the line. Isn't he supposed to be a shooter but hits less than 50% from the line? Am I wrong here? I hope so, because that don't make no sense.
8:23 - Brust for 3. Huh. Maybe the whole "let 'em shoot" strategy isn't the best one. And that move by Andre Hollins was just ridiculous. Just went right by Jordan Taylor and then right at one of those fat Sconnie dues and made the lay-up. Hollins is going to be a star. Watching him kind of reminds me of watching LeSean McCoy. That either makes total sense to you or is really stupid. I vote for makes sense.
7:40 - Missed Badger free throw, Badger board, Taylor three-pointer, 41-32 Badgers. Any of you basketball nerds know where to find how often a team gives up an offensive board on a missed free throw? Pretty sure the Gophers lead the nation.
7:11 - Two made throws give Sampson 1,000 career points. I remain underwhelmed.
6:47 - Another made three for the Badgers and I'm pretty sure Andre Ingram just blew his knee out again. Poor dude. Actually he looks less knee-blowout-y now. Hopefully he's ok. Based on the nearly constant transfers out of this program you never know, he could be a starter next year.
6:01 - Oto probably just traveled on a fast break lay-up attempt, which he missed, and then tipped in his own miss. I'm trying to decide if that was pretty or ugly. Since I've had a couple beers let's go with the beer goggles and call it pretty.
5:08 - 44-36 Wisconsin. I wish I could just fast forward. This is the kind of game people make fun of nationally.
4:54 - I honestly have no idea which one is Bruskewitz and which one is Berggren. Also Brust vs. Gasser is a challenge. I can pick out Ryan Evans though, thanks to all that time misspent watching Kid N Play movies in my youth.
3:45 - Either an amazing touch pass by Williams or a fortunate bounce leads to a Sampson dunk. 46-40 Badgers. If this was any other B10 team I'd say they were at least in it.
2:42 - Andre Hollins takes a very aggressive, but not ill-advised, three pointer; Williams grabs the o-board by outjumping everyone, misses the putback, gets back up quicker than anyone else to grab another, gets fouled, and makes both free throws. That is exactly what Gopher fans need to concentrate on for next year. That hole sequence actually looked like a good, confident team. Also, if you're scoring at home, I'm now writing effusive praise for a sequence where the gophers shot 1-3 from the floor. Also they just showed a graphic that the Gophers have 3 assists tonight. Which, I suppose, isn't that bad when you consider I think they have about 8 field goals.
1:21 - Austin Hollins travels for no good reason whatsoever.
0:41 - Announcer guys aren't making much sense with their reasons, but the overall point is sound - the Gophers could really use an actual point guard. I love Andre Hollins, but, well, I don't know. I mean I guess he could be an actual point guard in the scoring point vein, but I think the team would be better if he could just be the scorer. They need a Darren Collison to his Russell Westbrook. Good thing they have both a good point guard on the current roster plus one of a quality pedigree coming in next year. The future is bright!
0:00 - Gophers lose 52-45. Sucks because the Gophers really needed this to land a top NIT seed. And thanks a bunch for not covering Badger asses.
Gophers vs. Badgers Preview
I have to be honest. I had no idea that Gophers vs. Badgers game was tonight until I logged into sportsbook.com this morning to check on all the lines for the night and saw it was up (Badgers -9.5, FYI). The whole time I spent writing the week in review post last night (below this one) I had no idea they were playing. So this is going to be short.
As it should be. The Badgers are peaking right now, as their win at Ohio State shows, while the Gophers have basically given up on the season. As I wrote, the body language of the players and of the coach against Indiana tells me they've all checked out, and just want the season to be over at this point. Sure, there were a few players who still seemed to have the fire and want to win, but in general the team was just sluggish and unemotional (how much does that sum up four years of Ralph Sampson) and I'm not sure Tubby moved more than a handful of times in the entire game. In order to win at Kohl you need to be fired up, and I don't think that's going to be the case.
At this point the "do or die" fire is an afterthought, because they should have had that same mindset against Indiana and at the end of the Spartan game and it didn't happen, so there's no reason to think it happens here, especially on the road. There's no point in going over individual players or matchups, not to mention you always know what you're getting from Wisconsin. They never look all that talented on paper, but no matter how evil Bo Ryan is he is pure genius when it comes to finding lightly recruited players who will fit his system and getting them to buy-in 100%, and that's what they have again this year. The Badgers are peaking, while the Gophers want to run and hide.
Wisconsin 66, Minnesota 50
As it should be. The Badgers are peaking right now, as their win at Ohio State shows, while the Gophers have basically given up on the season. As I wrote, the body language of the players and of the coach against Indiana tells me they've all checked out, and just want the season to be over at this point. Sure, there were a few players who still seemed to have the fire and want to win, but in general the team was just sluggish and unemotional (how much does that sum up four years of Ralph Sampson) and I'm not sure Tubby moved more than a handful of times in the entire game. In order to win at Kohl you need to be fired up, and I don't think that's going to be the case.
At this point the "do or die" fire is an afterthought, because they should have had that same mindset against Indiana and at the end of the Spartan game and it didn't happen, so there's no reason to think it happens here, especially on the road. There's no point in going over individual players or matchups, not to mention you always know what you're getting from Wisconsin. They never look all that talented on paper, but no matter how evil Bo Ryan is he is pure genius when it comes to finding lightly recruited players who will fit his system and getting them to buy-in 100%, and that's what they have again this year. The Badgers are peaking, while the Gophers want to run and hide.
Wisconsin 66, Minnesota 50
Monday, February 27, 2012
Week in Review: 2-27/2012
I have no idea what to say or how to say it. We've been down this road again and again and written this same recap again and again. That was just an embarrassing loss, particularly when the season was on the line (as thin as that line may have been) and it was a home game against a team you've already beaten on the road. To get absolutely blown out in a must-win home game sends pretty much the loudest message possible to the committee that you don't belong in the NCAA Tournament. Even winning out the last two and making a run to the conference tournament final probably isn't enough anymore, but we don't really have to worry about it because there is zero chance this team can win at Wisconsin. They've checked out.
I don't think they've checked out on Tubby, but they've certainly checked out on this season. The body language says it all, and Ralph's 1-11 shooting performance on Sunday basically sums it up. This is a defeated team, and Tubby feels it as well. At this point these two games need to just end, then lose in the first round of the b10 tourney, and start planning for next year. It's clear the players just want this season to end, and I can't blame them because it's been miserable these last couple of weeks. But I'm not on the fire Tubby bandwagon, even if I've been critical of his game coaching abilities. I remain critical of those, but he deserves one more year, but it's a make or break year. If there's another season that goes similarly to this one, it's time to move on. The important thing is to build a program, and if he misses another NCAA Tournament, well, there's no building going on. One more year, Tubby. Show us why we were all excited when the hiring was initially announced. This is just sad.
I mean, look at Notre Dame this year. Both the Gophers and Notre Dame received exactly one 25th place vote in a poll to start the season (Gophers in the AP, Notre Dame in the coaches). Both teams lost their best player for the year, a senior power forward, early in the season (like Mbakwe for the Gophers, Tim Abromaitis led the team in both scoring and rebounding when he went down). Neither team had any kind of real impact freshman coming in, so post-injury both schools looked to be in trouble. But, where the Gophers have struggled and floundered and canceled out any flashes of brilliance with some terrible outings, Notre Dame has played together, executed well consistently, and completely bought in to Mike Brey's system and is 20-10 overall, 12-5 in the Big East, and a lock for the tournament. Look at these two teams. It's hard to say Notre Dame is significantly more talented, if at all, than the Gophers, and yet look at the results. Unsettling, at best.
We move on....
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Iowa State Cyclones. Well, for those of you out there who were complete idiots and were saying Fred Hoiberg was some kind of moron for collected talented yet troubled transfers (and you know who you are) how about you pour some Bacardi 151 in your butthole and chase it with a match? Because Iowa State just won at Kansas State - the same K-State who just beat both Baylor and Missouri on the road - to move to 11-5 in Big 12 play and 21-8 overall. They're now tied for 4th with Baylor in the Conference and have now 100% locked up an NCAA bid. While the Gophers need a miracle. I'm moving to Ames. Plus they got craps there.
2. Purdue Boilermakers. While every other Big 10 team who was chasing a bid goes down faster than your mom on prom night, Purdue is taking a stand and doing what needs to be done like full grown men. I'm just kidding about that sentence by the way, it's intentionally douchey (except for the mom joke, that's all me). Anyway, while everyone else is pooping on their heads, Purdue went into Ann Arbor and beat Michigan, a team that was undefeated at home this year, was ranked #11 in the polls, #10 in the RPI, and #21 in kenpom's ratings. That, my friends, is the definition of a signature win and puts Purdue firmly into tournament lock status. And you know how they won? Because Terone Johnson shot 9-12 for 22 points and carried the offense. You know the last time an unsung-y Gopher like Johnson stepped up to carry the team to a victory? Caddyshack. Cue rimshot.
3. Kansas Jayhawks. I kind of feel like I've been underrating the Jayhawks all year, mainly because they're a two-man show and also because I hate them and have hated them since that little wiener Jeff Boschee was running around being wienery. But they're about to win the Big 12 for the 9th straight year* after beating Missouri, and that win was a freaking ballsy ass win because they were down 19 and came back against an incredibly good team. And Thomas Robinson? Holy hell is this guy good. He's nearly flawless in the low post, and because Missouri only has one low-post kind of defender in Ricardo Ratliffe (who, by the way, is completely awesome in his own way) they chose to single cover Robinson all game and he put on a clinic. Now, this is hyperbole of the biggest fashion so don't jump down my throat, but watching him I actually was reminded of Hakeem Olajuwon. I know, I know, but I was. I can't help it. Guy's legit.
4. Miami Hurricanes. I've said it before and I'll say it again, I'm always impressed with teams on the Bubble who go out and get that big home win that they need (mainly because I don't know if I've ever seen it from my favorite team), and Miami did just that this weekend, taking down the #16 Seminoles 78-62 to jump up and likely grab themselves and NCAA bid. Most impressive is that they did it without starting center and double-double guy Reggie Johnson, who was ruled ineligible by the NCAA due to some minor infractions that will hopefully be resolved quickly. Not to mention that even without him they managed to put up 78 points on the usually defensively studly Seminoles, the first time a team has scored that much on them since January 7th. Pretty sure Miami sucks and won't win a game in the tourney, but at least they're most likely going to make it.
5. South Florida Bulls. Speaking of college teams from the state of Florida who picked up huge wins with bubble ramifications over the weekend, USF knocked off fellow bubble team Cincinnati on Sunday and can pretty officially no longer be ignored. The game wasn't pretty with the Bulls winning 46-45, both teams having just one player score in double figures, and the two teams combined to shoot 6-30 from 3-point land, but USF did what they needed to do and got a big victory. South Florida is now 11-5 in the Big East, has bumped their RPI up to 45 (right behind K-State), and now has a 4-1 record against teams between 40-100 in the RPI. Of course, they are also 0-7 vs. the RPI top 40 and have three losses against sub-100 teams, but closing out the season at 11-4 is pretty solid. You'd have to think if they can finish out 1-1 (@Louisville, vs. WVU) and then win their Big East Tourny opener they'd be in - a far cry from the team that started the year 7-7 and lost to Penn State (among other craptastic squads).
WHO SUCKED
1. Seton Hall Pirates. Are you shitting me Seton Hall? So they beat Georgetown for one of the most meaningful bubble wins this year and it's all like oh hell yes sweet what a great win awesome to see a team actually step up when they have to. And how do they follow it up? By losing at home to freaking Rutgers. Rutgers of the four conference wins and #149 RPI. Seriously, I mean if this doesn't completely wipe out all the good they did by beating the Hoyas it's damn close. I swear to god this is exactly what I expect from the Gophers or Northwestern, not a real team from the Big East. Shaheen Holloway is probably rolling over in his sports grave.
2. West Virginia Mountaineers. Even though there are plenty of teams doing everything they can to avoid getting invited to the NCAA Tournament, I don't know if anybody is doing a better job of tanking than West Virginia. On January 21 they were 15-5 and 5-2 in the Big East after beating Cincinnati. Since then they've gone 2-7 (with one of the wins taking overtime to beat Providence). This week may have been the worst, first going to Notre Dame and getting beat by 30, then taking on a Marquette squad that suspended three starters for the first half, building an 11-point half-time lead, and then blowing it and losing by one. A team that looked like an easy lock for the NCAA Tournament a month ago is now completely floundering, and with just games vs. DePaul and @ South Florida left a 2-0 finish is now an absolute must, and they might need a win or two in the Big East Tournament to get in. Seriously, if Huggins is going to find a way to cheat he might as well get started pretty quick.
3. Florida Gators. Jeez this seems like a very Florida-y week in review, which I guess is kind of appropriate since I'm going to Florida for a family vacation starting next Tuesday and that's kind of on my mind, but it's been a very Florda-centric week for being awesome and sucking so here we are. Anyway, the Gators continue to show how vulnerable they are because of their reliance on the perimeter jumper, and Georgia took advantage taking them down 76-62 with the Gators shooting just 5-23 from three. 39% of Florida's points come from three-pointers, the 3rd most in the country, and 44.6% of their shot attempts come from behind the arc (6th in the nation). Even though they do shoot them well (39.4%, 16th in the country) relying on something that can disappear in any given game, combined with a pretty bad defense (94th in Defensive efficiency) is a recipe for any early March exit.
4. Ohio State Buckeyes. Obviously there are varying degrees of sucking because I would kill your mother if it meant the Gophers would even approach Ohio State's success, but for a team that was/is supposed to be a national title contender there are some major concerns right now, with Ohio State 2-3 in their last five games including two home losses (to Michigan State and Wisconsin, but still). The Buckeyes were supposed to cruise to a Big 10 title and even with Michigan State having a tremendous year they should still be the class of the conference, but all of a sudden they're showing a whole bunch of chinks in their armor (wait, are we allowed to say that?) Buford has just been plain off most of the year, Craft hasn't turned into anything on the offensive end, and suddenly Sullinger is disappearing in games (17 total points in the last two, plus 1-7 from the free throw line when he's a 74% shooter this season). Still plenty of talent here and they're probably still one of the 10 best teams in the country, but suddenly an early round loss in the tournament doesn't seem like the impossibility it once did.
5. Cal Golden Bears. I don't know why I obsess about the Pac-10's mediocrity so much, but it's just mind boggling that a conference with schools like UCLA, USC, Washington, Cal, etc. can be so bad at basketball for so long. Every year there's a point where it looks like the Pac-12 might only get one bid, and although I don't think it's actually happened yet it's amazing how close it gets every year. And once again this season just when it looks like both Cal and Washington are safe, Cal goes out and gets destroyed by Colorado 70-57. Both Washington and Cal will probably still get in and everything, but jeez man, it's just amazing how much they suck. Also, in a semi-related note, with all the conference realignment going on I think what makes the most sense is for the Gophers to move into the Pac-12. It's common sense, really.
With conference tournaments starting up this week I need to get to work on the small conference tournament previews, so you'll have to do without your pithy outro this week. You know, the outro nobody reads because they've usually bailed on my post halfway through or so because it's too long and/or boring? Yeah, that.
* = I made this up because I was toodrunk tired to actually look it up
I don't think they've checked out on Tubby, but they've certainly checked out on this season. The body language says it all, and Ralph's 1-11 shooting performance on Sunday basically sums it up. This is a defeated team, and Tubby feels it as well. At this point these two games need to just end, then lose in the first round of the b10 tourney, and start planning for next year. It's clear the players just want this season to end, and I can't blame them because it's been miserable these last couple of weeks. But I'm not on the fire Tubby bandwagon, even if I've been critical of his game coaching abilities. I remain critical of those, but he deserves one more year, but it's a make or break year. If there's another season that goes similarly to this one, it's time to move on. The important thing is to build a program, and if he misses another NCAA Tournament, well, there's no building going on. One more year, Tubby. Show us why we were all excited when the hiring was initially announced. This is just sad.
I mean, look at Notre Dame this year. Both the Gophers and Notre Dame received exactly one 25th place vote in a poll to start the season (Gophers in the AP, Notre Dame in the coaches). Both teams lost their best player for the year, a senior power forward, early in the season (like Mbakwe for the Gophers, Tim Abromaitis led the team in both scoring and rebounding when he went down). Neither team had any kind of real impact freshman coming in, so post-injury both schools looked to be in trouble. But, where the Gophers have struggled and floundered and canceled out any flashes of brilliance with some terrible outings, Notre Dame has played together, executed well consistently, and completely bought in to Mike Brey's system and is 20-10 overall, 12-5 in the Big East, and a lock for the tournament. Look at these two teams. It's hard to say Notre Dame is significantly more talented, if at all, than the Gophers, and yet look at the results. Unsettling, at best.
We move on....
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Iowa State Cyclones. Well, for those of you out there who were complete idiots and were saying Fred Hoiberg was some kind of moron for collected talented yet troubled transfers (and you know who you are) how about you pour some Bacardi 151 in your butthole and chase it with a match? Because Iowa State just won at Kansas State - the same K-State who just beat both Baylor and Missouri on the road - to move to 11-5 in Big 12 play and 21-8 overall. They're now tied for 4th with Baylor in the Conference and have now 100% locked up an NCAA bid. While the Gophers need a miracle. I'm moving to Ames. Plus they got craps there.
2. Purdue Boilermakers. While every other Big 10 team who was chasing a bid goes down faster than your mom on prom night, Purdue is taking a stand and doing what needs to be done like full grown men. I'm just kidding about that sentence by the way, it's intentionally douchey (except for the mom joke, that's all me). Anyway, while everyone else is pooping on their heads, Purdue went into Ann Arbor and beat Michigan, a team that was undefeated at home this year, was ranked #11 in the polls, #10 in the RPI, and #21 in kenpom's ratings. That, my friends, is the definition of a signature win and puts Purdue firmly into tournament lock status. And you know how they won? Because Terone Johnson shot 9-12 for 22 points and carried the offense. You know the last time an unsung-y Gopher like Johnson stepped up to carry the team to a victory? Caddyshack. Cue rimshot.
3. Kansas Jayhawks. I kind of feel like I've been underrating the Jayhawks all year, mainly because they're a two-man show and also because I hate them and have hated them since that little wiener Jeff Boschee was running around being wienery. But they're about to win the Big 12 for the 9th straight year* after beating Missouri, and that win was a freaking ballsy ass win because they were down 19 and came back against an incredibly good team. And Thomas Robinson? Holy hell is this guy good. He's nearly flawless in the low post, and because Missouri only has one low-post kind of defender in Ricardo Ratliffe (who, by the way, is completely awesome in his own way) they chose to single cover Robinson all game and he put on a clinic. Now, this is hyperbole of the biggest fashion so don't jump down my throat, but watching him I actually was reminded of Hakeem Olajuwon. I know, I know, but I was. I can't help it. Guy's legit.
4. Miami Hurricanes. I've said it before and I'll say it again, I'm always impressed with teams on the Bubble who go out and get that big home win that they need (mainly because I don't know if I've ever seen it from my favorite team), and Miami did just that this weekend, taking down the #16 Seminoles 78-62 to jump up and likely grab themselves and NCAA bid. Most impressive is that they did it without starting center and double-double guy Reggie Johnson, who was ruled ineligible by the NCAA due to some minor infractions that will hopefully be resolved quickly. Not to mention that even without him they managed to put up 78 points on the usually defensively studly Seminoles, the first time a team has scored that much on them since January 7th. Pretty sure Miami sucks and won't win a game in the tourney, but at least they're most likely going to make it.
5. South Florida Bulls. Speaking of college teams from the state of Florida who picked up huge wins with bubble ramifications over the weekend, USF knocked off fellow bubble team Cincinnati on Sunday and can pretty officially no longer be ignored. The game wasn't pretty with the Bulls winning 46-45, both teams having just one player score in double figures, and the two teams combined to shoot 6-30 from 3-point land, but USF did what they needed to do and got a big victory. South Florida is now 11-5 in the Big East, has bumped their RPI up to 45 (right behind K-State), and now has a 4-1 record against teams between 40-100 in the RPI. Of course, they are also 0-7 vs. the RPI top 40 and have three losses against sub-100 teams, but closing out the season at 11-4 is pretty solid. You'd have to think if they can finish out 1-1 (@Louisville, vs. WVU) and then win their Big East Tourny opener they'd be in - a far cry from the team that started the year 7-7 and lost to Penn State (among other craptastic squads).
WHO SUCKED
1. Seton Hall Pirates. Are you shitting me Seton Hall? So they beat Georgetown for one of the most meaningful bubble wins this year and it's all like oh hell yes sweet what a great win awesome to see a team actually step up when they have to. And how do they follow it up? By losing at home to freaking Rutgers. Rutgers of the four conference wins and #149 RPI. Seriously, I mean if this doesn't completely wipe out all the good they did by beating the Hoyas it's damn close. I swear to god this is exactly what I expect from the Gophers or Northwestern, not a real team from the Big East. Shaheen Holloway is probably rolling over in his sports grave.
2. West Virginia Mountaineers. Even though there are plenty of teams doing everything they can to avoid getting invited to the NCAA Tournament, I don't know if anybody is doing a better job of tanking than West Virginia. On January 21 they were 15-5 and 5-2 in the Big East after beating Cincinnati. Since then they've gone 2-7 (with one of the wins taking overtime to beat Providence). This week may have been the worst, first going to Notre Dame and getting beat by 30, then taking on a Marquette squad that suspended three starters for the first half, building an 11-point half-time lead, and then blowing it and losing by one. A team that looked like an easy lock for the NCAA Tournament a month ago is now completely floundering, and with just games vs. DePaul and @ South Florida left a 2-0 finish is now an absolute must, and they might need a win or two in the Big East Tournament to get in. Seriously, if Huggins is going to find a way to cheat he might as well get started pretty quick.
3. Florida Gators. Jeez this seems like a very Florida-y week in review, which I guess is kind of appropriate since I'm going to Florida for a family vacation starting next Tuesday and that's kind of on my mind, but it's been a very Florda-centric week for being awesome and sucking so here we are. Anyway, the Gators continue to show how vulnerable they are because of their reliance on the perimeter jumper, and Georgia took advantage taking them down 76-62 with the Gators shooting just 5-23 from three. 39% of Florida's points come from three-pointers, the 3rd most in the country, and 44.6% of their shot attempts come from behind the arc (6th in the nation). Even though they do shoot them well (39.4%, 16th in the country) relying on something that can disappear in any given game, combined with a pretty bad defense (94th in Defensive efficiency) is a recipe for any early March exit.
4. Ohio State Buckeyes. Obviously there are varying degrees of sucking because I would kill your mother if it meant the Gophers would even approach Ohio State's success, but for a team that was/is supposed to be a national title contender there are some major concerns right now, with Ohio State 2-3 in their last five games including two home losses (to Michigan State and Wisconsin, but still). The Buckeyes were supposed to cruise to a Big 10 title and even with Michigan State having a tremendous year they should still be the class of the conference, but all of a sudden they're showing a whole bunch of chinks in their armor (wait, are we allowed to say that?) Buford has just been plain off most of the year, Craft hasn't turned into anything on the offensive end, and suddenly Sullinger is disappearing in games (17 total points in the last two, plus 1-7 from the free throw line when he's a 74% shooter this season). Still plenty of talent here and they're probably still one of the 10 best teams in the country, but suddenly an early round loss in the tournament doesn't seem like the impossibility it once did.
5. Cal Golden Bears. I don't know why I obsess about the Pac-10's mediocrity so much, but it's just mind boggling that a conference with schools like UCLA, USC, Washington, Cal, etc. can be so bad at basketball for so long. Every year there's a point where it looks like the Pac-12 might only get one bid, and although I don't think it's actually happened yet it's amazing how close it gets every year. And once again this season just when it looks like both Cal and Washington are safe, Cal goes out and gets destroyed by Colorado 70-57. Both Washington and Cal will probably still get in and everything, but jeez man, it's just amazing how much they suck. Also, in a semi-related note, with all the conference realignment going on I think what makes the most sense is for the Gophers to move into the Pac-12. It's common sense, really.
With conference tournaments starting up this week I need to get to work on the small conference tournament previews, so you'll have to do without your pithy outro this week. You know, the outro nobody reads because they've usually bailed on my post halfway through or so because it's too long and/or boring? Yeah, that.
* = I made this up because I was too
Thursday, February 23, 2012
Bubble Watch 2-23-2012
You know what's weird? I'm incredibly relaxed now. I suppose I should thank Tubby for refusing to call a play for the final five minutes of the game and for the players to commit 5 turnovers without hitting the rim with a shot once down the stretch. Really though, coming down to the end didn't it seem like Michigan State's gameplan was "keep attacking the rim" while the Gophers game plan was "let's use the entire shot clock and hope we get enough stops so time runs out before the Spartans catch up to us"? But I've moved on. I feel good today. No Gopher tournament stress bugging me. Even the pinched nerve in my back feels better. Nice.
The sports world does move on, however, and these ads aren't going to click themselves to make me some bank, so I have to write about something. Luckily there are two awesome things right around the corner - The NCAA Tournament and the start of baseball season. I thought I would write about baseball, tearing apart Twins' strategies like this one (why why why why would you hamstring your bench by carrying a third catcher because you're worried about a situation that almost never happens and really isn't that big of a deal when it does happen? So Twinsthink here it's almost criminal) or discussing MLB Season Win Totals (Reds over 86.5 and Padres under 73.5 are locks), but it turns out my brain is only slowly moving over into baseball, so first we have to deal with the NCAA Tournament, and that means another Bubble Watch.
Yes, I realize this is far less meaningless now for any Gopher fan, but that also means it's that much more enjoyable to write/read because you don't have to stress out about it. Failure is relaxing.
Locks from my last bubble watch who stayed locks (rationale for some of the more questionable ones here is at that link) (34):
ACC (4): Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, Virginia
Big East (6): Syracuse, Marquette, Georgetown, Louisville, UCONN, Notre Dame
Big 10 (5): Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Indiana, Wisconsin
Big 12 (4): Missouri, Kansas, Iowa State, Baylor
Pac 12 (1): Cal - although they close with three road games and a loss in any makes them shakier
SEC (3): Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt
Mountain West (3): UNLV, SDSU, New Mexico
Atlantic 10 (2): Temple, St. Louis
Others (6): St. Mary's, Wichita State, Creighton, Gonzaga, Murray State, Long Beach (both Memphis and Southern Miss are back on the bubble
Teams that have moved to lock status in the last week(4):
Big East (1): Seton Hall. Yes, that win over Georgetown was that big, much like a Gopher win over Michigan State would have been. An RPI of 30 and a SOS of 26 to go with an 8-8 record against the Top 100 is a solid resume. Plus, assuming they don't lose both of their last two (vs. Rutgers, @DePaul) the Pirates are a 20-win team.
Big 12 (1): Kansas State. Funny how I called K-State a terrible team in my last bubble watch and since then they've won at Baylor and at Missouri. That's two road wins against RPI Top 15 teams in the last week, which also gives them "how you finish the season cred" and you know those two victories are going to stick in the minds of the committee.
SEC (1): Alabama. More than the win over Tennessee, the announcement that JaMychal Green was being reinstated is what bumps Alabama back up to a lock (even better, they knocked off Arkansas on the road tonight without him). Without Green they were certainly capable of going on a 4-game slide to end the year and miss the tournament, but with him back I don't see it, especially with Auburn and Ole Miss still left on the slate.
Others (1): Harvard. It's time. The Crimson are now a game and a half ahead of Penn with an RPI in the mid-30s, a 6-2 record against the RPI Top 100 (thanks to a sweep of Yale who now ranks #100), and only one bad loss (to Fordham). Barring a monster collapse, I don't see them getting stiffed.
That gives us 38 "locks" according to me. With 37 at-large bids, assuming one of the lock teams wins the autobid for the ACC, Big East, Big 12, Mountain West, Big 10, SEC, Atlantic-10, Pac-12, Ivy, WCC, Missouri Valley, Ohio Valley, and Big West that means there are still 12 bids up for grabs. The contenders:
Strong Case:
Purdue - The Boilers are awfully, awfully close to wrapping up a bid, but I can't quite bring myself to put them all the way in yet but I'm not even sure why. They're basically in, but something's holding me back (mainly because I don't want to go back and delete/edit what I already wrote). Seriously, even if they lost at both Michigan and Indiana they're going to beat Penn State at home which gives them 9 conference wins and 19 overall wins. Hard to see any way they don't make it in.
Washington - The Huskies are lacking in top end wins (just 3 top 100, zero top 50) like every other Pac-10 team, but they've taken care of business in league play at 12-3, and although they don't have a shot at picking up a big win in their final 3 regular season games, all three are on the road (Wash State, USC, UCLA) and winning two of those three gets them not only to 14 league wins and 21 total wins, but a 6-5 road record. Take all that together, and Washington should be in solid shape.
Colorado State - The Rams are weird because their computer numbers are through the roof (RPI 25, SoS 5) because looking at the resume you wouldn't think they're that great, but they've dominated teams from RPI 70-100 (5-2 record), and after beating New Mexico this week that gives them two top 30 wins. They have two more chances for monster wins, @SDSU and vs. UNLV, and winning either basically locks them in. I'm as surprised as you are.
West Virginia - A 17-11 record when your SoS is #7 is outstanding, but they're fading with a 2-6 record in their last 8, even if none of those losses is particularly egregious (except maybe the loss at St. John's). Everything is still pretty copacetic here, particularly if they can manage a home win vs. Marquette Friday night, but even if they lose that win and manage to win their last two (DePaul, @South Florida) they're probably sitting pretty.
Memphis - Last week's loss to UTEP was enough to knock them off of lock status, but they bounced back with a destruction of ECU. Memphis's next two are @Marshall (RPI 51) and home vs. UCF (#60) and if they win both of those you can go ahead and mail them a bid. Even if they only win one and at least reach the C-USA Championship game they're probably ok, but they should probably consider winning both for kicks.
In the Middle:
Miami - The Canes didn't do themselves any favors by losing at Maryland this week, but they still control their own fate with a home game vs. Florida State this weekend. Beating the Seminoles would give them a second RPI Top 20 win to go with the big upset at Duke, and it's exactly the kind of game a bubble team needs to take care off to get themselves where they want to be (like Seton Hall). In Miami's case I don't think beating FSU would lock it up, but it'd be a big jump up.
Cincinnati - Shit I just realized I didn't type anything here because I was waiting for the results of their game against Louisville. With a really high RPI that doesn't put them in, and it might not even put them in the "Strong Case" category. That SoS is just terrible at 147 (and 325 in non-conference SoS) and the loss to Presbyterian (RPI 260) is a nightmare. The committee seems to hate teams who schedule like shit out of conference, so that's another hurdle for Nick Van Exel U. Better win out, including a home game against Marquette, to feel anywhere near safe.
South Florida - ESPN calls the Bulls one of the most interesting at-large cases ever, and it's hard to disagree. The RPI (49) and Sos (36) aren't great but aren't bad either, and the 10-5 league record is outstanding. USF, however, has only one good win (over Seton Hall RPI 30) and four losses to sub-100 RPIers, but none since December 14th. In fact, the worst team the Bulls have lost to since then is Notre Dame (RPI 33). With games remaining against Cincy, @Louisville, and West Virginia they have three shots to add Top 100 wins. I'm kind of excited to see how this works out.
Mississippi State - Up until Feb. 11 the Rebels were cruising: 19-5 record, 6-3 in conference, no losses outside the RPI Top 100, and a 7-5 record against the top 100. Good shape. Then a three game losing streak with losses to Georgia, LSU, and Auburn led to nearly a must win against Kentucky, where Mississippi State looked every bit an NCAA Tournament team but couldn't get the win. Now they badly need to win at Alabama this weekend and then close it out by beating South Carolina and Arkansas to take the pressure of having to make a run in the SEC tournament off.
Southern Miss - The Golden Eagles were basically a lock a week ago, but back-to-back losses to Houston (RPI 215) and UTEP (RPI 129) have made things much more questionable. Normally I'd put Southern Miss a level down from here based on a typically weak C-USA, but even after those losses somehow their RPI sits at #17 (a sparkling 9-3 record against the top 100 has a lot to do with that). They probably can't afford any more slip-ups until the C-USA Championship game, and the regular season finale at Marshall (RPI 51) looms large.
Middle Tennessee State -You don't hear much about them, but the Blue Raiders (what? lol) are running through the Sun Belt like a red hot scimitar through some tendons. Twenty-three total wins already, 4-3 vs. the Top 100, and a 10-3 road/neutral mark are all definite positive signs. No marquee wins (best win is over #59 Akron) and no real games scheduled against marquee teams (toughest opponent was Vandy with Akron #2) make things rough. MTSU needs to get to the Sun Belt Championship to make this interesting, but any loss prior to that probably does it, which is a shame because this is a good team.
VCU - The CAA is a bit tricky this year, because although VCU (and Drexel, see below) have gaudy records and the CAA is usually a pretty solid conference, the RPIs are a bit lacking (both in the 70s). You can't rule either of them out and both won their Bracket Busters match-ups, but neither has any remaining shot at a top end win either. If VCU (or Drexel) wins out and at makes the conf tournament championship they're definitely in contention, but both squads would do well to just win the whole thing instead.
Drexel - The Dragons are a bit different than VCU because while VCU has been consistently mediocre all year, Drexel started the year shitty and is now the greatest team in history. They started the year 2-4 and have now gone 22-1 including stomping Cleveland State in Bracket Busters. They have three bad losses but two came before December 4th and they're 4-0 vs. the RPI Top 100 since December. VCU And Drexel have nearly identical resumes, so the CAA Tournament looms huge for both.
Iona - Truth be told I'm not nearly enough of a bracketologist to know if Iona has a real shot here, but to me they should. The RPI is just fine at 44, they're 22-6 overall and rolled the conference at 13-3. They don't have any top 50 wins but they're a very nice 6-3 against the RPI Top 100, and they absolutely pass the eye test especially if you saw them roll Nevada in Bracket Busters. The real issue here is two RPI sub-200 losses (Hofstra, Siena) and admittedly that's a big black mark. Still, I'd consider Iona a tournament team who effed up twice rather than an imposter. I hope they make it.
In bad shape:
Minnesota - You know what's going on. The only reason you can't drop them off is because they still have opportunities to grab marquee wins that most bubble teams aren't lucky enough to have. If they can beat Indiana at home and win at Wisconsin (and not blow the finale against Nebraska) that may very well be enough to get them in. I wouldn't hold my breath.
Northwestern - Their loss this week to Michigan was a pretty big back-breaker. Like Minnesota, however, they still have a chance to boost their profile immensely with a home date vs. Ohio State coming up on Feb. 29. Win that and it should send them in, assuming they don't lose at Iowa or Penn State - a dangerous assumption indeed.
Texas - Similar to the teams above, the Longhorns have whiffed on chance after chance after chance to get that big win. They've played 11 games against the RPI Top 50 this year, which is really good, but have only won 3 of them. They also don't have any horrendous losses, which is pretty much what is keeping them alive, but they probably have to win at Kansas in about a week and a half in order to get in.
Oregon - The Pac-12 is horrible this year, which makes it a bad conference to be in when you have a mediocre profile, but Oregon is still hanging around due to having the second best RPI in the conference (52) and a 17-1 record against the RPI Top 100+ (ie only one bad loss). A win over Colorado next week would give them another Top 100 win which would really help.
Arizona - The Wildcats have a similar profile to Oregon, but with more Top 100 wins (5 vs.2). That would probably rank them above Oregon, but the Wildcats are basically done for marquee win chances with just games vs. USC (RPI 241), UCLA (134), and @Arizona State (238) left to go. Arizona's best bet is to not screw up, make it to the Pac-12 championship game, and hope enough other teams screw up. Of course, winning the Pac tourney is the actual best bet, but we're not assuming things here.
Oral Roberts -The Golden Eagles are an interesting case, because their RPI is decent (47), you can't argue with a 16-1 conference mark, and although they only have one bad loss (UTSA), they don't really have anything to balance it out with no Top 25 wins and just a 3-3 record against the Top 50. I don't think they'll get a bid, but after the win over Akron in Bracket Busters they're definitely interesting. If they make the Summit League Final and lose to South Dakota State (RPI 63) they have an outside shot if enough other team's falter down the stretch.
Belmont - I don't really think Belmont has much of a shot here, but the 21-7 record, and #68 RPI mean you can't completely rule it out, although it would take a whole lot of collapsing by others. The Bruins have two Top 51 wins (Middle Tennessee & Marshall) but weren't able to get any real marquee win despite a pretty decent schedule. They most likely better win the A-Sun Tournament, but if they win their last remaining regular season game and then get to the final before losing to say, Mercer (RPI 118) they'd probably get at least a little consideration.
It's Over (9):
NC State - blew a 20-point lead at Duke, got blown away at Florida State, and then couldn't hang with UNC at home. Three chances to get a big win and three whiffs.
Illinois - The blowout by Nebraska is enough to end their hopes, but with the tailspin they're in their could easily be three more losses tossed on pre-Big 10 tournament.
Xavier - If the Musketeers can manage to win at St. Louis next week and enough other team's falter they may be able to crawl back into consideration, but as it looks now their loss to UMass spells their doom.
St. Joe's - Similar computer numbers to Xavier, but St. Joe's now has four bad losses after dropping a home game to Richmond this week. Not even a win over Temple on Saturday can get them in now.
George Mason - The CAA teams, as noted above, are in perilous enough position, but GMU's loss to Northeastern on Wednesday is one bad loss too many and pushes their RPI to 91. No chance.
Weber State - I have no idea why I had them in the bubble watch initially, what with the RPI of 74 and SoS of 294 and zero wins over RPI top 90 teams. Probably because my wife and a some of her relatives attended the school. Despite that kind of pull, they have no at-large shot at all.
Davidson - The game against Wichita was their last gasp and they not only came up short but they didn't even come close. Kind of a shame because their win at Kansas is one of the best wins of anybody all season, but it's pretty much the only positive thing on this resume. Also not a shame because Davidson annoys the piss out of me.
Nevada - Pretty similar to Davidson but without the Kansas win. They may have had a little life if they could have squeaked out a win over Iona in Bracket Busters but alas, it was not to be. A weak WAC did them no favors this season.
Akron - The Zips have a great MAC record at 12-1 and no bad losses to speak of, but they also lack quality wins and needed to beat Oral Roberts in Bracket Busters to remain in consideration. They didn't.
So that's where things sit. As far as the Gophers go, they need to win out in the regular season. It's that simple. And I'm super confident that will happen. Can't wait. Awesome. Joy.
The sports world does move on, however, and these ads aren't going to click themselves to make me some bank, so I have to write about something. Luckily there are two awesome things right around the corner - The NCAA Tournament and the start of baseball season. I thought I would write about baseball, tearing apart Twins' strategies like this one (why why why why would you hamstring your bench by carrying a third catcher because you're worried about a situation that almost never happens and really isn't that big of a deal when it does happen? So Twinsthink here it's almost criminal) or discussing MLB Season Win Totals (Reds over 86.5 and Padres under 73.5 are locks), but it turns out my brain is only slowly moving over into baseball, so first we have to deal with the NCAA Tournament, and that means another Bubble Watch.
Yes, I realize this is far less meaningless now for any Gopher fan, but that also means it's that much more enjoyable to write/read because you don't have to stress out about it. Failure is relaxing.
Locks from my last bubble watch who stayed locks (rationale for some of the more questionable ones here is at that link) (34):
ACC (4): Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, Virginia
Big East (6): Syracuse, Marquette, Georgetown, Louisville, UCONN, Notre Dame
Big 10 (5): Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Indiana, Wisconsin
Big 12 (4): Missouri, Kansas, Iowa State, Baylor
Pac 12 (1): Cal - although they close with three road games and a loss in any makes them shakier
SEC (3): Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt
Mountain West (3): UNLV, SDSU, New Mexico
Atlantic 10 (2): Temple, St. Louis
Others (6): St. Mary's, Wichita State, Creighton, Gonzaga, Murray State, Long Beach (both Memphis and Southern Miss are back on the bubble
Teams that have moved to lock status in the last week(4):
Big East (1): Seton Hall. Yes, that win over Georgetown was that big, much like a Gopher win over Michigan State would have been. An RPI of 30 and a SOS of 26 to go with an 8-8 record against the Top 100 is a solid resume. Plus, assuming they don't lose both of their last two (vs. Rutgers, @DePaul) the Pirates are a 20-win team.
Big 12 (1): Kansas State. Funny how I called K-State a terrible team in my last bubble watch and since then they've won at Baylor and at Missouri. That's two road wins against RPI Top 15 teams in the last week, which also gives them "how you finish the season cred" and you know those two victories are going to stick in the minds of the committee.
SEC (1): Alabama. More than the win over Tennessee, the announcement that JaMychal Green was being reinstated is what bumps Alabama back up to a lock (even better, they knocked off Arkansas on the road tonight without him). Without Green they were certainly capable of going on a 4-game slide to end the year and miss the tournament, but with him back I don't see it, especially with Auburn and Ole Miss still left on the slate.
Others (1): Harvard. It's time. The Crimson are now a game and a half ahead of Penn with an RPI in the mid-30s, a 6-2 record against the RPI Top 100 (thanks to a sweep of Yale who now ranks #100), and only one bad loss (to Fordham). Barring a monster collapse, I don't see them getting stiffed.
That gives us 38 "locks" according to me. With 37 at-large bids, assuming one of the lock teams wins the autobid for the ACC, Big East, Big 12, Mountain West, Big 10, SEC, Atlantic-10, Pac-12, Ivy, WCC, Missouri Valley, Ohio Valley, and Big West that means there are still 12 bids up for grabs. The contenders:
Strong Case:
Purdue - The Boilers are awfully, awfully close to wrapping up a bid, but I can't quite bring myself to put them all the way in yet but I'm not even sure why. They're basically in, but something's holding me back (mainly because I don't want to go back and delete/edit what I already wrote). Seriously, even if they lost at both Michigan and Indiana they're going to beat Penn State at home which gives them 9 conference wins and 19 overall wins. Hard to see any way they don't make it in.
Washington - The Huskies are lacking in top end wins (just 3 top 100, zero top 50) like every other Pac-10 team, but they've taken care of business in league play at 12-3, and although they don't have a shot at picking up a big win in their final 3 regular season games, all three are on the road (Wash State, USC, UCLA) and winning two of those three gets them not only to 14 league wins and 21 total wins, but a 6-5 road record. Take all that together, and Washington should be in solid shape.
Colorado State - The Rams are weird because their computer numbers are through the roof (RPI 25, SoS 5) because looking at the resume you wouldn't think they're that great, but they've dominated teams from RPI 70-100 (5-2 record), and after beating New Mexico this week that gives them two top 30 wins. They have two more chances for monster wins, @SDSU and vs. UNLV, and winning either basically locks them in. I'm as surprised as you are.
West Virginia - A 17-11 record when your SoS is #7 is outstanding, but they're fading with a 2-6 record in their last 8, even if none of those losses is particularly egregious (except maybe the loss at St. John's). Everything is still pretty copacetic here, particularly if they can manage a home win vs. Marquette Friday night, but even if they lose that win and manage to win their last two (DePaul, @South Florida) they're probably sitting pretty.
Memphis - Last week's loss to UTEP was enough to knock them off of lock status, but they bounced back with a destruction of ECU. Memphis's next two are @Marshall (RPI 51) and home vs. UCF (#60) and if they win both of those you can go ahead and mail them a bid. Even if they only win one and at least reach the C-USA Championship game they're probably ok, but they should probably consider winning both for kicks.
In the Middle:
Miami - The Canes didn't do themselves any favors by losing at Maryland this week, but they still control their own fate with a home game vs. Florida State this weekend. Beating the Seminoles would give them a second RPI Top 20 win to go with the big upset at Duke, and it's exactly the kind of game a bubble team needs to take care off to get themselves where they want to be (like Seton Hall). In Miami's case I don't think beating FSU would lock it up, but it'd be a big jump up.
Cincinnati - Shit I just realized I didn't type anything here because I was waiting for the results of their game against Louisville. With a really high RPI that doesn't put them in, and it might not even put them in the "Strong Case" category. That SoS is just terrible at 147 (and 325 in non-conference SoS) and the loss to Presbyterian (RPI 260) is a nightmare. The committee seems to hate teams who schedule like shit out of conference, so that's another hurdle for Nick Van Exel U. Better win out, including a home game against Marquette, to feel anywhere near safe.
South Florida - ESPN calls the Bulls one of the most interesting at-large cases ever, and it's hard to disagree. The RPI (49) and Sos (36) aren't great but aren't bad either, and the 10-5 league record is outstanding. USF, however, has only one good win (over Seton Hall RPI 30) and four losses to sub-100 RPIers, but none since December 14th. In fact, the worst team the Bulls have lost to since then is Notre Dame (RPI 33). With games remaining against Cincy, @Louisville, and West Virginia they have three shots to add Top 100 wins. I'm kind of excited to see how this works out.
Mississippi State - Up until Feb. 11 the Rebels were cruising: 19-5 record, 6-3 in conference, no losses outside the RPI Top 100, and a 7-5 record against the top 100. Good shape. Then a three game losing streak with losses to Georgia, LSU, and Auburn led to nearly a must win against Kentucky, where Mississippi State looked every bit an NCAA Tournament team but couldn't get the win. Now they badly need to win at Alabama this weekend and then close it out by beating South Carolina and Arkansas to take the pressure of having to make a run in the SEC tournament off.
Southern Miss - The Golden Eagles were basically a lock a week ago, but back-to-back losses to Houston (RPI 215) and UTEP (RPI 129) have made things much more questionable. Normally I'd put Southern Miss a level down from here based on a typically weak C-USA, but even after those losses somehow their RPI sits at #17 (a sparkling 9-3 record against the top 100 has a lot to do with that). They probably can't afford any more slip-ups until the C-USA Championship game, and the regular season finale at Marshall (RPI 51) looms large.
Middle Tennessee State -You don't hear much about them, but the Blue Raiders (what? lol) are running through the Sun Belt like a red hot scimitar through some tendons. Twenty-three total wins already, 4-3 vs. the Top 100, and a 10-3 road/neutral mark are all definite positive signs. No marquee wins (best win is over #59 Akron) and no real games scheduled against marquee teams (toughest opponent was Vandy with Akron #2) make things rough. MTSU needs to get to the Sun Belt Championship to make this interesting, but any loss prior to that probably does it, which is a shame because this is a good team.
VCU - The CAA is a bit tricky this year, because although VCU (and Drexel, see below) have gaudy records and the CAA is usually a pretty solid conference, the RPIs are a bit lacking (both in the 70s). You can't rule either of them out and both won their Bracket Busters match-ups, but neither has any remaining shot at a top end win either. If VCU (or Drexel) wins out and at makes the conf tournament championship they're definitely in contention, but both squads would do well to just win the whole thing instead.
Drexel - The Dragons are a bit different than VCU because while VCU has been consistently mediocre all year, Drexel started the year shitty and is now the greatest team in history. They started the year 2-4 and have now gone 22-1 including stomping Cleveland State in Bracket Busters. They have three bad losses but two came before December 4th and they're 4-0 vs. the RPI Top 100 since December. VCU And Drexel have nearly identical resumes, so the CAA Tournament looms huge for both.
Iona - Truth be told I'm not nearly enough of a bracketologist to know if Iona has a real shot here, but to me they should. The RPI is just fine at 44, they're 22-6 overall and rolled the conference at 13-3. They don't have any top 50 wins but they're a very nice 6-3 against the RPI Top 100, and they absolutely pass the eye test especially if you saw them roll Nevada in Bracket Busters. The real issue here is two RPI sub-200 losses (Hofstra, Siena) and admittedly that's a big black mark. Still, I'd consider Iona a tournament team who effed up twice rather than an imposter. I hope they make it.
In bad shape:
Minnesota - You know what's going on. The only reason you can't drop them off is because they still have opportunities to grab marquee wins that most bubble teams aren't lucky enough to have. If they can beat Indiana at home and win at Wisconsin (and not blow the finale against Nebraska) that may very well be enough to get them in. I wouldn't hold my breath.
Northwestern - Their loss this week to Michigan was a pretty big back-breaker. Like Minnesota, however, they still have a chance to boost their profile immensely with a home date vs. Ohio State coming up on Feb. 29. Win that and it should send them in, assuming they don't lose at Iowa or Penn State - a dangerous assumption indeed.
Texas - Similar to the teams above, the Longhorns have whiffed on chance after chance after chance to get that big win. They've played 11 games against the RPI Top 50 this year, which is really good, but have only won 3 of them. They also don't have any horrendous losses, which is pretty much what is keeping them alive, but they probably have to win at Kansas in about a week and a half in order to get in.
Oregon - The Pac-12 is horrible this year, which makes it a bad conference to be in when you have a mediocre profile, but Oregon is still hanging around due to having the second best RPI in the conference (52) and a 17-1 record against the RPI Top 100+ (ie only one bad loss). A win over Colorado next week would give them another Top 100 win which would really help.
Arizona - The Wildcats have a similar profile to Oregon, but with more Top 100 wins (5 vs.2). That would probably rank them above Oregon, but the Wildcats are basically done for marquee win chances with just games vs. USC (RPI 241), UCLA (134), and @Arizona State (238) left to go. Arizona's best bet is to not screw up, make it to the Pac-12 championship game, and hope enough other teams screw up. Of course, winning the Pac tourney is the actual best bet, but we're not assuming things here.
Oral Roberts -The Golden Eagles are an interesting case, because their RPI is decent (47), you can't argue with a 16-1 conference mark, and although they only have one bad loss (UTSA), they don't really have anything to balance it out with no Top 25 wins and just a 3-3 record against the Top 50. I don't think they'll get a bid, but after the win over Akron in Bracket Busters they're definitely interesting. If they make the Summit League Final and lose to South Dakota State (RPI 63) they have an outside shot if enough other team's falter down the stretch.
Belmont - I don't really think Belmont has much of a shot here, but the 21-7 record, and #68 RPI mean you can't completely rule it out, although it would take a whole lot of collapsing by others. The Bruins have two Top 51 wins (Middle Tennessee & Marshall) but weren't able to get any real marquee win despite a pretty decent schedule. They most likely better win the A-Sun Tournament, but if they win their last remaining regular season game and then get to the final before losing to say, Mercer (RPI 118) they'd probably get at least a little consideration.
It's Over (9):
NC State - blew a 20-point lead at Duke, got blown away at Florida State, and then couldn't hang with UNC at home. Three chances to get a big win and three whiffs.
Illinois - The blowout by Nebraska is enough to end their hopes, but with the tailspin they're in their could easily be three more losses tossed on pre-Big 10 tournament.
Xavier - If the Musketeers can manage to win at St. Louis next week and enough other team's falter they may be able to crawl back into consideration, but as it looks now their loss to UMass spells their doom.
St. Joe's - Similar computer numbers to Xavier, but St. Joe's now has four bad losses after dropping a home game to Richmond this week. Not even a win over Temple on Saturday can get them in now.
George Mason - The CAA teams, as noted above, are in perilous enough position, but GMU's loss to Northeastern on Wednesday is one bad loss too many and pushes their RPI to 91. No chance.
Weber State - I have no idea why I had them in the bubble watch initially, what with the RPI of 74 and SoS of 294 and zero wins over RPI top 90 teams. Probably because my wife and a some of her relatives attended the school. Despite that kind of pull, they have no at-large shot at all.
Davidson - The game against Wichita was their last gasp and they not only came up short but they didn't even come close. Kind of a shame because their win at Kansas is one of the best wins of anybody all season, but it's pretty much the only positive thing on this resume. Also not a shame because Davidson annoys the piss out of me.
Nevada - Pretty similar to Davidson but without the Kansas win. They may have had a little life if they could have squeaked out a win over Iona in Bracket Busters but alas, it was not to be. A weak WAC did them no favors this season.
Akron - The Zips have a great MAC record at 12-1 and no bad losses to speak of, but they also lack quality wins and needed to beat Oral Roberts in Bracket Busters to remain in consideration. They didn't.
So that's where things sit. As far as the Gophers go, they need to win out in the regular season. It's that simple. And I'm super confident that will happen. Can't wait. Awesome. Joy.
Wednesday, February 22, 2012
Preview: Gophers vs. Sparty
Last night, a floundering team who had NCAA at-large aspirations at one point had a gigantic home game against an opponent ranked in the top 10, the type of game that can take a so-so tournament resume, or even a weakish one, and suddenly vault the team towards the top of the bubble. That team would be Seton Hall, who came out on fire and smoked Georgetown by 18, shooting a blistering 61% against a very good defensive Hoya team and showing that this is a team that gets it, and wants in.
Elsewhere, Colorado State, who was barely clinging to the bubble and whose only chance of getting in was grabbing some marquee wins as the season winds down, jumped up at home and took down one of the hottest teams in the entire NCAA by beating New Mexico behind inspired play by a back-up forced into heavy action due to injury, who responded with a double-double. Virginia won at rival Virginia Tech to lock-up their bid. Kansas State put up one of the best wins of any team this year by winning at Missouri to put them in great shape. So it is possible for a team to respond positively in these situations, despite what us Gopher fans have seen year-after-year.
Of course, there are also teams who go the other way. Northwestern lost what was pretty much a must-win home game (blowing the advantage gained after beating Minnesota, which I predicted on my twitter account), NC State couldn't handle UNC in a game they had to have, Xavier lost at UMass to end their at-large hopes, and Mississippi State came up just short of upsetting Kentucky in a game that would have put them into position for a bid. So it can go either way. So what about the Gophers against Michigan State tonight?
Sadly, I have a feeling they're going the wrong way. Michigan State is an elite team both offensively and defensively. They've won five straight, 7 of the last 8, and recently beat both Ohio State and Purdue on the road. Draymond Green is an elite big 10 star, despite some argument in the comments section of one of my posts a few days ago, and when you watch him you'll see a guy who completely controls the game. He's basically their point forward to start the offense, but gets involved in the paint once the ball starts moving. He's had 8+ boards in 13 straight games and notched a double-double in four of the last five. Unlike a lot of players who become the main guy for their team, he's actually having a better shooting year than last year, including career highs in 3-point and free throw percentage. He's a stud, and he's got plenty of help.
Keith Appling has settled into his combo guard role, scoring in double figures in 12 of the last 15 games (although it's worth noting he's 3-29 from 3-point land in the last 10 games). Freshman Branden Dawson has gone from slow-starter to supremely confident inside scorer, hitting 10+ points in 6 of the last 8 and he demolished Purdue. Adreian Payne and Derrick Nix are a terrific center combination, and Payne's defense is a difference maker now that he's figured out what the hell he's doing. And, along with Green, they have three other shooters in Brandon Wood (36% from 3), Travis Trice (41%), and Austin Thornton (42% and also he looks just like Bogart, FYI) who should all have a field day.
Simply put, this team is too big, too disciplined, too strong, and too athletic. They have enough talent to make the Final Four and, like usual with Izzo's teams, they're peaking at the right time and the Gophers are in their way. In order to pull this off, the Gophers will have to play a near flawless game with something approaching the 60% shooting Seton Hall threw up last night, and looking at this roster I just don't see how this can possibly happen here.
Michigan State 74, Minnesota 57.
Elsewhere, Colorado State, who was barely clinging to the bubble and whose only chance of getting in was grabbing some marquee wins as the season winds down, jumped up at home and took down one of the hottest teams in the entire NCAA by beating New Mexico behind inspired play by a back-up forced into heavy action due to injury, who responded with a double-double. Virginia won at rival Virginia Tech to lock-up their bid. Kansas State put up one of the best wins of any team this year by winning at Missouri to put them in great shape. So it is possible for a team to respond positively in these situations, despite what us Gopher fans have seen year-after-year.
Of course, there are also teams who go the other way. Northwestern lost what was pretty much a must-win home game (blowing the advantage gained after beating Minnesota, which I predicted on my twitter account), NC State couldn't handle UNC in a game they had to have, Xavier lost at UMass to end their at-large hopes, and Mississippi State came up just short of upsetting Kentucky in a game that would have put them into position for a bid. So it can go either way. So what about the Gophers against Michigan State tonight?
Sadly, I have a feeling they're going the wrong way. Michigan State is an elite team both offensively and defensively. They've won five straight, 7 of the last 8, and recently beat both Ohio State and Purdue on the road. Draymond Green is an elite big 10 star, despite some argument in the comments section of one of my posts a few days ago, and when you watch him you'll see a guy who completely controls the game. He's basically their point forward to start the offense, but gets involved in the paint once the ball starts moving. He's had 8+ boards in 13 straight games and notched a double-double in four of the last five. Unlike a lot of players who become the main guy for their team, he's actually having a better shooting year than last year, including career highs in 3-point and free throw percentage. He's a stud, and he's got plenty of help.
Keith Appling has settled into his combo guard role, scoring in double figures in 12 of the last 15 games (although it's worth noting he's 3-29 from 3-point land in the last 10 games). Freshman Branden Dawson has gone from slow-starter to supremely confident inside scorer, hitting 10+ points in 6 of the last 8 and he demolished Purdue. Adreian Payne and Derrick Nix are a terrific center combination, and Payne's defense is a difference maker now that he's figured out what the hell he's doing. And, along with Green, they have three other shooters in Brandon Wood (36% from 3), Travis Trice (41%), and Austin Thornton (42% and also he looks just like Bogart, FYI) who should all have a field day.
Simply put, this team is too big, too disciplined, too strong, and too athletic. They have enough talent to make the Final Four and, like usual with Izzo's teams, they're peaking at the right time and the Gophers are in their way. In order to pull this off, the Gophers will have to play a near flawless game with something approaching the 60% shooting Seton Hall threw up last night, and looking at this roster I just don't see how this can possibly happen here.
Michigan State 74, Minnesota 57.
Sunday, February 19, 2012
Week in Review: 2-20-2012
Jesus what a completely pathetic defensive effort. You name it, the Gophers did or didn't do it. They didn't close out on shooters. They got confused on their defensive scheme which led to not switching when they were supposed to and open lay-ups for Northwestern. The continually went under screens instead of over the top and then made no real strong effort to get in a shooters face. They got lost on back cuts. They allowed offensive rebounds like candy, including on missed free throws which should be grounds for a lawsuit in some way I don't know I'm not a lawyer. A five foot nothin' lesbian ball boy was able to get to the rim at will. Just a completely putrid effort. Combine that with an offense that seemed confused in the second half and completely went away from what worked in the first game and the half (can anyone actually tell me why they completely quit going inside when it's the whole reason they won the first game?). Credit Northwestern with playing better defense and knocking down all those wide open shots, but this was a truly terrible game by the Gophers. Now they need to win 2 of the next three (Michigan State, Indiana, @Wisconsin). LOL. Can't wait for baseball!
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Murray State Racers. I've gone on record here as saying I'm not remotely a believer in Murray State, but after they waxed St. Mary's with ease in their Bracket Busters game on Saturday I've definitely seen a bit of a tick in the "I believe" direction on my "Do I believe in Murray State"-inator which I always wear on my wrist. They just completely dominated the game from beginning to end, and St. Mary's is a very good team. They did turn it over 15 times, but overcame that by shooting the lights out and winning by 14. I can't quite throw my support behind them yet as being for real and I'd love to see them play one more good team to get a real sense of how good they are, but sadly they won't play another good team until the tournament. The tournament which, by the way, they are an absolute lock for now no matter what else happens.
2. Other Bracket Buster winners. Besides Murray State some other teams picked up very big wins this weekend. Wichita State moves into lock territory after knocking off Davidson, while VCU (beat Northern Iowa), Drexel (crushed Cleveland State on the road), George Mason (over Lamar), Weber State (over UT-Arlington) and Iona (beat Nevada) all jump up from "probably not" to "we better take a look" status thanks to their wins. Their were some huge wins outside of Bracket Busters as well, and probably none bigger than Kansas State's win over Baylor which is absolutely a monster for their profile. Middle Tennessee State continued to roll through the the Sun Belt (they can afford zero losses prior to the Sun Belt Championship game), while South Florida has now moved to 10-4 in the Big East after an easy win at Pitt. The overall profile is still a bit lacking but you can't ignore them anymore. And finally, although they're not in consideration for an at-large, Loyola Marymount had a huge week, beating St. Mary's and then winning their Bracket Buster match-up against Valpo and that now gives them three wins over RPI Top 50 teams. Which is pretty much their entire resume, so yeah. Oh, and Harvard beat Yale, so that was good too.
3. Oakland A's. When I first saw the news that the A's had signed Yoenis Cespedes, the cuban defecting outfielder and supposed superstar, I was just stunned and was wondering what the hell Billy Beane was doing. I mean, a team that basically just gutted it's entire roster outbidding everyone else to get a Cuban dude who has never faced major league quality pitching? Bizarre. But when I really stopped to think, it actually makes a lot of sense and is a worthwhile gamble. They got him for 4 years/$36 million which is far less than it was originally thought he'd sign for ($50 mill+), and because of their situation they don't need him to come in a play right away and he can take some time in the minors to assimilate himself. The A's suck now, but are primed to be a contender in a couple of years thanks to a farm system Keith Law ranked as the 9th best in baseball (and that was before this signing) with five guys in Law's Top 100 including three pitchers who project as top of the rotation type guys. Add some hitters, like Cespedes, and Oakland becomes a contender. And seriously, would you rather have Cespedes and his potential at $9 million per year, or Cuddyer at $10+? Cespedes is basically a bargain - a gamble, but a bargain.
4. New Mexico. I'm not entirely certain if a team has EVER had as good a week as the Lobos just did. There are two teams considered as "elite" in the MWC - San Diego State and UNLV. New Mexico, due to a couple of shitty early season losses (to New Mex State and Santa Clara) and losses to both those teams, was considered a step below. Well no more, because this week alone the Lobos beat SDSU at their place by 10 and then stomped UNLV at home by 20 to lock up a bid to the NCAA Tournament and assure the Mountain West will be sending three teams (at least) once again. They're awfully good, and have a great point guard who can control the game in Kendall Williams, plus a star in Drew Gordon (finally) who put up 27 & 20 against the Rebels. Hopefully they don't run the table and then win the MWC Tournament, because I want them to have a lower seed for sleeper potential.
5. Tyus Jones. Jones scored 45 points in a game against some team earlier this week to go along with 7 assists, 7 steals, and 7 rebounds. He also received a scholarship offer from Duke. That now means the Gophers are competing against not only Ohio State and Michigan State but now the freakin' Blue Devils, and Jones has zero interest in staying home and the Gophers' continual mediocrity isn't going to win him over any time soon. If you still believe Jones may end up a Gopher, just remember Naadir Tharpe who looked like he was all set to join the Gophers before Kansas suddenly swooped in out of nowhere with an offer which Tharpe accepted within the week. The Gophers, at present, simply cannot compete for that type of player, and when that player is from here and they still can't get him it just reinforces how big of a wasteland the program is right now. Man do I miss Clem. Sure he cheated, but at least he made the team relevant. I'd kill for relevancy. I'm going to light matches and see how long I can hold my finger in the flame, just so I can feel something.
WHO SUCKED
1. Ralph Sampson. I truly believe this is the last time I'll ever write about Sampson because I think we're pretty much done here. Whether it's his fault or Tubby's (well, probably both) nothing has changed since Day 1 and I think even his most ardent supporters, yours truly, have realized that he's going to go down with Rick Rickert as the biggest disappointment in team history. His numbers are virtually unchanged from his freshman year. He wasn't progressing as much as anybody had hoped, but there was a bit of a progression so you could still hold out hope he would have a monster senior year, and when Mbakwe went down the door was wide open. Rather than going through, however, Ralph timidly shut it and, with a shrug of the shoulders, said "No thank you."
He's never shown any drive or any aggressiveness, and never improved in any way (in fact he's regressed in every possible way other than shooting percentage). He never refined his hook shot, nor added a second move in four years. Seriously he never added another move. And, for all his outside shot promise, he never delivered on that either. I suspect Ralph had the talent, but spent his off seasons not in the gym, but playing nintendo or dominoes or dungeons and dragons or whatever kids do these days. His downside should have been Sam Perkins, but he never even got there. This pretty much sums it up. I'm just pissed I didn't think of it first.
2. Illinois Fighting Illini. As disappointing as the Tubby era has been, at least he's not Bruce Weber. After a pretty rough home loss to Purdue on Wednesday that made four straight defeats and a record of 1-7 in their last 8, Weber gave interviews where he sounded alternately confused (bad look for a coach) and defeated (even worse) and his boss gave an interview where he pretty much went out of his way to say Weber was still his guy. So, naturally, rather than rallying around their coach and coming out all fired up against Nebraska the Illini did what you'd expect them to do and rolled over like a bunch of two-bit hookers. I mean they lost to Nebraska by 23 and it wasn't even that close. The Huskers had walk-ons in with like 3 minutes left in the game. Brandon Paul shot 1-7 and scored 2 points. Terrible game, and it's basically guaranteed that Weber is gone after this year. Illinois has a continual pipeline of talent in Chicago so they'll always be dangerous, so as a Gopher fan I'm very sorry to see Weber go, because with him at the helm you always knew you never had to worry about the Illini.
3. Conference USA. When I did my bubble watch I counted both Southern Miss and Memphis as IN along with a group of other teams with the caveat that none of those teams could handle more than 1 more loss. Well, C-USA, poised to possibly get more than one team in the dance for the first time since 1998*, just kicked itself square in the balls because both Southern Miss and Memphis - the only two teams in the conference with at-large chances - both lost to bad teams this weekend. So Miss lost to Houston and their RPI of 220, while Memphis got dropped by UTEP (RPI 149). If both teams manage to get to the C-USA championship game without another loss I'd expect both to still get in. But if either picks up another loss things are going to be very dicey. I was feel bad for C-USA. It was formed to compete with the big boys and was competitive for a bit, but then was completely raided, is now losing Memphis, and will dissolve and form with the leftovers from the Mountain West and is going to be just completely brutal. Don't forget, Cincinnati, Marquette, and Louisville all used to be C-USA schools, and now the jewel will be what, Marshall? UTEP? Gross. This is like being the black sheep of your family and then quitting your shitty job to join a cult. And not one of the good ones either, more like one that forbids group sex (which I assume is the only reason anyone joins a cult).
4. Mississippi State Tigers. Remember like, not all that long ago when Mississippi State was 6-3 in SEC play and had a non-conference win over West Virginia (RPI 37) and no bad (RPI sub-100) losses and everything was hunky dorey? Well a three game losing streak has included losses to Auburn (RPI 123) and Georgia (RPI 107) and they're now 6-3 and in a wee spot of trouble. They have four games left before the SEC Tournament and one is home against Kentucky and another is on the road at Alabama (which is a very tough game if their dudes are reinstated). And it's sad because any team with Dee Bost, Arnett Moultrie, Rodney Hood, and Renardo Sidney should coast to a bid - I mean there's a reason this team was ranked 15th at one point this year. Although Sidney is still way fat and his game has taken a pretty significant step backwards this year, so that doesn't help. Of course, beating Kentucky this week will solve all ills.
5. NC State Wolfpack. This week was a monster of the Wolfpack who were right on the cusp of the bubble and just needed a marquee win or two to push them towards the top, and the opportunities were there with a game at Duke and then a home contest against Florida State. Everything was looking good as NC State raced out to a 16-point lead at the half and were up 19 with 11 minutes left to play, but then they remembered they aren't supposed to win at Cameron and the refs also must have gotten a little jolt in their brain implanted microchips because Duke ended up winning thanks in part to 16 free throw attempts in the final 10 minutes compared to just seven for NC State and three NC Staters fouled out. So that sucked, but even worse they let that hangover drift into Saturday's game against FSU and got their doors blown off. They still have UNC at home this week, but that's their last chance to get a real good win prior to the ACC Tournament. They're looking like they're a year away, and I say that because their recruiting class next year contains Rivals recruits #6, #23, and #55 and ranks as the fourth best in the country for 2012. And yet Tubby's class for that year contains two 3-star guys. It's like impossible to follow college basketball as closely as I do and not get depressed at least three times about the Gophers.
Two additional quick points and then I'll shut-up:
1. The Gophers weren't the only team who took their NCAA bid hopes and pissed all over them this week. Other than Illinois, Miss State, NC State, and the C-USA teams mentioned above, you also had Davidson (loss to Wichita) who is now done along with Akron (loss to Oral Roberts), and Nevada (loss to Iona). Long Beach is still in pretty solid shape as long as there aren't any major slip-ups, but if they had won at Creighton (lost at the buzzer) they would have punched their ticket. And a few major conference teams, although not killing their chances, hurt them badly including Texas (got smoked by a shitty Oklahoma Stat team) and Arizona (lost to Washington). That win for Washington moves them to12-3 in the Pac-10, but the conference is so incredibly shitty that doesn't guarantee them a bid, not even a little. I read somewhere that the Pac-10 overall was something like 2-25 against the RPI Top 50 outside of conference. That's ridiculous. So bad it's like Tubby Smith's record against them since coming to the Gophers. lol.
2. I really like the A.J. Burnett trade for both sides. The Pirates add a veteran arm who undeniably has some talent to a rotation where almost nobody can name a single starter while not giving up any prospects of particular note while the Yankees pay for most of the contract. The Yankees get rid of a guy who clearly struggled with both the AL East and the NY spotlight and saved enough in the process to turn around and sign Raul Ibanez - a RH DH they desperately needed. And Burnett gets out of New York into a non-pressure and no lose situation, not to mention he gets out to the AL (and specifically the AL East) which can only help. win-win-win.
* = I completely made this up because I didn't feel like actually looking it up
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Murray State Racers. I've gone on record here as saying I'm not remotely a believer in Murray State, but after they waxed St. Mary's with ease in their Bracket Busters game on Saturday I've definitely seen a bit of a tick in the "I believe" direction on my "Do I believe in Murray State"-inator which I always wear on my wrist. They just completely dominated the game from beginning to end, and St. Mary's is a very good team. They did turn it over 15 times, but overcame that by shooting the lights out and winning by 14. I can't quite throw my support behind them yet as being for real and I'd love to see them play one more good team to get a real sense of how good they are, but sadly they won't play another good team until the tournament. The tournament which, by the way, they are an absolute lock for now no matter what else happens.
2. Other Bracket Buster winners. Besides Murray State some other teams picked up very big wins this weekend. Wichita State moves into lock territory after knocking off Davidson, while VCU (beat Northern Iowa), Drexel (crushed Cleveland State on the road), George Mason (over Lamar), Weber State (over UT-Arlington) and Iona (beat Nevada) all jump up from "probably not" to "we better take a look" status thanks to their wins. Their were some huge wins outside of Bracket Busters as well, and probably none bigger than Kansas State's win over Baylor which is absolutely a monster for their profile. Middle Tennessee State continued to roll through the the Sun Belt (they can afford zero losses prior to the Sun Belt Championship game), while South Florida has now moved to 10-4 in the Big East after an easy win at Pitt. The overall profile is still a bit lacking but you can't ignore them anymore. And finally, although they're not in consideration for an at-large, Loyola Marymount had a huge week, beating St. Mary's and then winning their Bracket Buster match-up against Valpo and that now gives them three wins over RPI Top 50 teams. Which is pretty much their entire resume, so yeah. Oh, and Harvard beat Yale, so that was good too.
3. Oakland A's. When I first saw the news that the A's had signed Yoenis Cespedes, the cuban defecting outfielder and supposed superstar, I was just stunned and was wondering what the hell Billy Beane was doing. I mean, a team that basically just gutted it's entire roster outbidding everyone else to get a Cuban dude who has never faced major league quality pitching? Bizarre. But when I really stopped to think, it actually makes a lot of sense and is a worthwhile gamble. They got him for 4 years/$36 million which is far less than it was originally thought he'd sign for ($50 mill+), and because of their situation they don't need him to come in a play right away and he can take some time in the minors to assimilate himself. The A's suck now, but are primed to be a contender in a couple of years thanks to a farm system Keith Law ranked as the 9th best in baseball (and that was before this signing) with five guys in Law's Top 100 including three pitchers who project as top of the rotation type guys. Add some hitters, like Cespedes, and Oakland becomes a contender. And seriously, would you rather have Cespedes and his potential at $9 million per year, or Cuddyer at $10+? Cespedes is basically a bargain - a gamble, but a bargain.
4. New Mexico. I'm not entirely certain if a team has EVER had as good a week as the Lobos just did. There are two teams considered as "elite" in the MWC - San Diego State and UNLV. New Mexico, due to a couple of shitty early season losses (to New Mex State and Santa Clara) and losses to both those teams, was considered a step below. Well no more, because this week alone the Lobos beat SDSU at their place by 10 and then stomped UNLV at home by 20 to lock up a bid to the NCAA Tournament and assure the Mountain West will be sending three teams (at least) once again. They're awfully good, and have a great point guard who can control the game in Kendall Williams, plus a star in Drew Gordon (finally) who put up 27 & 20 against the Rebels. Hopefully they don't run the table and then win the MWC Tournament, because I want them to have a lower seed for sleeper potential.
5. Tyus Jones. Jones scored 45 points in a game against some team earlier this week to go along with 7 assists, 7 steals, and 7 rebounds. He also received a scholarship offer from Duke. That now means the Gophers are competing against not only Ohio State and Michigan State but now the freakin' Blue Devils, and Jones has zero interest in staying home and the Gophers' continual mediocrity isn't going to win him over any time soon. If you still believe Jones may end up a Gopher, just remember Naadir Tharpe who looked like he was all set to join the Gophers before Kansas suddenly swooped in out of nowhere with an offer which Tharpe accepted within the week. The Gophers, at present, simply cannot compete for that type of player, and when that player is from here and they still can't get him it just reinforces how big of a wasteland the program is right now. Man do I miss Clem. Sure he cheated, but at least he made the team relevant. I'd kill for relevancy. I'm going to light matches and see how long I can hold my finger in the flame, just so I can feel something.
WHO SUCKED
1. Ralph Sampson. I truly believe this is the last time I'll ever write about Sampson because I think we're pretty much done here. Whether it's his fault or Tubby's (well, probably both) nothing has changed since Day 1 and I think even his most ardent supporters, yours truly, have realized that he's going to go down with Rick Rickert as the biggest disappointment in team history. His numbers are virtually unchanged from his freshman year. He wasn't progressing as much as anybody had hoped, but there was a bit of a progression so you could still hold out hope he would have a monster senior year, and when Mbakwe went down the door was wide open. Rather than going through, however, Ralph timidly shut it and, with a shrug of the shoulders, said "No thank you."
He's never shown any drive or any aggressiveness, and never improved in any way (in fact he's regressed in every possible way other than shooting percentage). He never refined his hook shot, nor added a second move in four years. Seriously he never added another move. And, for all his outside shot promise, he never delivered on that either. I suspect Ralph had the talent, but spent his off seasons not in the gym, but playing nintendo or dominoes or dungeons and dragons or whatever kids do these days. His downside should have been Sam Perkins, but he never even got there. This pretty much sums it up. I'm just pissed I didn't think of it first.
2. Illinois Fighting Illini. As disappointing as the Tubby era has been, at least he's not Bruce Weber. After a pretty rough home loss to Purdue on Wednesday that made four straight defeats and a record of 1-7 in their last 8, Weber gave interviews where he sounded alternately confused (bad look for a coach) and defeated (even worse) and his boss gave an interview where he pretty much went out of his way to say Weber was still his guy. So, naturally, rather than rallying around their coach and coming out all fired up against Nebraska the Illini did what you'd expect them to do and rolled over like a bunch of two-bit hookers. I mean they lost to Nebraska by 23 and it wasn't even that close. The Huskers had walk-ons in with like 3 minutes left in the game. Brandon Paul shot 1-7 and scored 2 points. Terrible game, and it's basically guaranteed that Weber is gone after this year. Illinois has a continual pipeline of talent in Chicago so they'll always be dangerous, so as a Gopher fan I'm very sorry to see Weber go, because with him at the helm you always knew you never had to worry about the Illini.
3. Conference USA. When I did my bubble watch I counted both Southern Miss and Memphis as IN along with a group of other teams with the caveat that none of those teams could handle more than 1 more loss. Well, C-USA, poised to possibly get more than one team in the dance for the first time since 1998*, just kicked itself square in the balls because both Southern Miss and Memphis - the only two teams in the conference with at-large chances - both lost to bad teams this weekend. So Miss lost to Houston and their RPI of 220, while Memphis got dropped by UTEP (RPI 149). If both teams manage to get to the C-USA championship game without another loss I'd expect both to still get in. But if either picks up another loss things are going to be very dicey. I was feel bad for C-USA. It was formed to compete with the big boys and was competitive for a bit, but then was completely raided, is now losing Memphis, and will dissolve and form with the leftovers from the Mountain West and is going to be just completely brutal. Don't forget, Cincinnati, Marquette, and Louisville all used to be C-USA schools, and now the jewel will be what, Marshall? UTEP? Gross. This is like being the black sheep of your family and then quitting your shitty job to join a cult. And not one of the good ones either, more like one that forbids group sex (which I assume is the only reason anyone joins a cult).
4. Mississippi State Tigers. Remember like, not all that long ago when Mississippi State was 6-3 in SEC play and had a non-conference win over West Virginia (RPI 37) and no bad (RPI sub-100) losses and everything was hunky dorey? Well a three game losing streak has included losses to Auburn (RPI 123) and Georgia (RPI 107) and they're now 6-3 and in a wee spot of trouble. They have four games left before the SEC Tournament and one is home against Kentucky and another is on the road at Alabama (which is a very tough game if their dudes are reinstated). And it's sad because any team with Dee Bost, Arnett Moultrie, Rodney Hood, and Renardo Sidney should coast to a bid - I mean there's a reason this team was ranked 15th at one point this year. Although Sidney is still way fat and his game has taken a pretty significant step backwards this year, so that doesn't help. Of course, beating Kentucky this week will solve all ills.
5. NC State Wolfpack. This week was a monster of the Wolfpack who were right on the cusp of the bubble and just needed a marquee win or two to push them towards the top, and the opportunities were there with a game at Duke and then a home contest against Florida State. Everything was looking good as NC State raced out to a 16-point lead at the half and were up 19 with 11 minutes left to play, but then they remembered they aren't supposed to win at Cameron and the refs also must have gotten a little jolt in their brain implanted microchips because Duke ended up winning thanks in part to 16 free throw attempts in the final 10 minutes compared to just seven for NC State and three NC Staters fouled out. So that sucked, but even worse they let that hangover drift into Saturday's game against FSU and got their doors blown off. They still have UNC at home this week, but that's their last chance to get a real good win prior to the ACC Tournament. They're looking like they're a year away, and I say that because their recruiting class next year contains Rivals recruits #6, #23, and #55 and ranks as the fourth best in the country for 2012. And yet Tubby's class for that year contains two 3-star guys. It's like impossible to follow college basketball as closely as I do and not get depressed at least three times about the Gophers.
Two additional quick points and then I'll shut-up:
1. The Gophers weren't the only team who took their NCAA bid hopes and pissed all over them this week. Other than Illinois, Miss State, NC State, and the C-USA teams mentioned above, you also had Davidson (loss to Wichita) who is now done along with Akron (loss to Oral Roberts), and Nevada (loss to Iona). Long Beach is still in pretty solid shape as long as there aren't any major slip-ups, but if they had won at Creighton (lost at the buzzer) they would have punched their ticket. And a few major conference teams, although not killing their chances, hurt them badly including Texas (got smoked by a shitty Oklahoma Stat team) and Arizona (lost to Washington). That win for Washington moves them to12-3 in the Pac-10, but the conference is so incredibly shitty that doesn't guarantee them a bid, not even a little. I read somewhere that the Pac-10 overall was something like 2-25 against the RPI Top 50 outside of conference. That's ridiculous. So bad it's like Tubby Smith's record against them since coming to the Gophers. lol.
2. I really like the A.J. Burnett trade for both sides. The Pirates add a veteran arm who undeniably has some talent to a rotation where almost nobody can name a single starter while not giving up any prospects of particular note while the Yankees pay for most of the contract. The Yankees get rid of a guy who clearly struggled with both the AL East and the NY spotlight and saved enough in the process to turn around and sign Raul Ibanez - a RH DH they desperately needed. And Burnett gets out of New York into a non-pressure and no lose situation, not to mention he gets out to the AL (and specifically the AL East) which can only help. win-win-win.
* = I completely made this up because I didn't feel like actually looking it up
Thursday, February 16, 2012
A Look at the Bubble
With the Gophers somehow still tenuously clinging to a bid (or being right on the cusp) according to most projections, I thought it might make sense to look at the bubble with a more critical eye. ESPN does a very good Bubble Watch each Tuesday, and you can probably find one at any reasonably sized, sports-related website, but I'm going to take a harder, more project-y look than the cautious look most other sites take. To put it another way, rather than avoiding projecting where teams will end up at the end of the season, I'm going to go right ahead and project my ass off. So here we go. Joy.
ACC:
IN (4): Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, Virginia - FSU's loss to BC and Virginia's loss to Clemson hurt, but both teams should be ok in the end
BUBBLE TEAMS (2): NC State, Miami - Neither team is in very good shape right now, because between the two of them Miami's win over Duke is the only good win either team has. Plenty of chances coming up to grab a bid though.
BIG EAST:
IN (6): Syracuse, Marquette, Georgetown, Louisville, UCONN, Notre Dame - Although both UCONN (late swoon) and Notre Dame (slow start) have some issues that make them less than true locks, both have enough on the board (UCONN computer numbers and a win over FSU; Notre Dame great play in the Big East including four wins over ranked teams) that it would be pretty stunning to see either miss out. The Irish are probably safer, but UCONN has five games left including Pitt, Nova, and @Providence. Even if they lose their other two (vs. Marquette and Syracuse) as long as they win those they get to .500 in the Big East which would be enough combined with the rest of the profile.
BUBBLE TEAMS (4): Seton Hall, West Virginia, Cincinnati, South Florida - The Hall and West Virginia are spiraling down, Cincy has to overcome a brutally bad non-conference schedule that included losses to Presbyterian and Marshall, and South Florida isn't even considered a bubble team by the ESPN guys (although with an RPI of 57 and a 9-4 Big East record, even with a thin resume other than that I have to include them). There's a very good chance none of these Bubble teams get in, although if SHU can go 3-1 to close out (@Cincy, G-Town, Rutgers, @DePaul) they're probably good.
BIG 10:
IN (5): Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana - although Wisconsin still sucks
BUBBLE TEAMS (4): Minnesota, Purdue, Illinois, Northwestern - these four teams are bunched so tightly it's hard to even pick an order, although after beating Illinois on the road to get to 7-6 in the conference you'd probably have to put Purdue on top (and Illinois on the bottom). With so many locks, rpi-hogs, and ranked teams in the conference it's going to come down to who can grab those chances to knock off a top team and get a quality win. The only game left between two of these four bubble squads is Saturday with the Gophers going to Northwestern (huge game) so reaching up and taking down a giant when the opportunity presents itself is how these teams will have to make their mark. (mmmmm.....maker's mark)
BIG 12:
IN (4): Missouri, Kansas, Baylor, Iowa State - I might be being a bit optimistic with the Cyclones, but two guaranteed wins left (home vs. Tex Tech and Oklahoma) mean ISU will get to 20 wins and at worst a 10-8 conference record with a decent RPI and no truly bad losses. The other bubble teams in the Big 12 are pretty weak, and I can't see only three teams getting in so I'm giving the Clones the nod.
BUBBLE TEAMS (2): Kansas State, Texas - both of these teams are terrible and will lose in the first round if they sneak into the tournament. Other than K State's win over Missouri there's not much here. K-State also beat Alabama, while Texas has wins over Iowa State and Temple and the two teams split with each other. Just not much to work with. Both have two chances for big wins left (Texas: @Kansas, vs. Baylor, K-State: @Baylor, @Missouri) and if either wins one of those and the games they're supposed to win they'll probably be in, but the point remains - these teams stink.
PAC-12:
IN (1): Uh, nobody? I'll put Cal in here because their RPI is significantly better than everyone else in the conference (#38 vs. mid-60s), an easier schedule the rest of the way (only 1 game versus a bubble team and it's at home), and a 5-4 record vs. the RPI top 100. But really, nobody looks good here.
BUBBLE TEAMS (3): Washington, Arizona, Oregon - These teams all have terrible RPIs, very few (if any) good wins, and some bad losses, but you still have to consider them as possible tournament teams because if any of them win out you're looking at things like 15-3 or 14-4 conference record and even in a down Pac-12 (again) that's tough to ignore. Each team only has one tough game left with Washington and Arizona playing each other on Saturday, but there are enough road potholes here that it would be super easy for all three to slip and miss the tournament.
SEC:
IN (3): Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt - it would take a monumental collapse for Vandy not to make it in, and Kentucky and Florida are pretty much deadlocks
BUBBLE TEAMS (2): Alabama, Mississippi State - Bama would have been a lock but suspensions to like, the entire team led to a loss to LSU and a home loss to Florida (a win in that one would have sealed the deal). They're still in ok shape, but with their two best players still suspended indefinitely the bad losses could start piling up. Miss State's back-to-back OT losses (to LSU and Georgia) have them going in the wrong direction, but a win next week at home over Kentucky would cure everything, and they have the talent to do it.
MOUNTAIN WEST:
IN (3): San Diego State, New Mexico, UNLV - Rather than taking a step back from a very successful campaign last year, the MWC might be stronger than ever, at least at the top. All 3 of these teams are solid locks.
BUBBLE TEAMS (1): Colorado State - Although the overall profile doesn't scream tournament team, the computer numbers are weirdly strong #28 RPI, #5 SOS. But the main reason to consider the Rams on the bubble is they have games left against New Mexico (home), SDSU (road), and UNLV (home). If they can somehow manage to go 2-1 in those (and beat #66 Wyoming at home) and combined with those computer numbers they're suddenly a bid stealer. NOTE: This probably won't happen.
ATLANTIC 10:
IN (2): Temple, St. Louis - Temple is solidly in, and although St. Louis isn't quite as certain at this point the Billikens are almost guaranteed to win three of their final 4 (Fordham, @Rhode Island, Xavier, @Duquesne) which would get them to 12-4 in the league and 24-6 overall. With a current RPI of 22, that'll do it.
BUBBLE TEAMS (2): Xavier, St. Joseph's - The Musketeers season tanked hard after the brawl vs. Cincy and although everybody seemed to waiting for them to recover they just never did and pretty much have to win their last five (including @St. Louis). I'm including St. Joe's here because of the decent RPI (#48) and their win over Creighton, but they basically have to beat Temple on Feb 25th (and win everything else) to have a chance.
THE REST:
IN (8): St. Mary's, Wichita State, Creighton, Gonzaga, Murray State, Southern Miss, Memphis, Long Beach State - because of the terrible conferences these teams play in any one of them falls off with more than 1 more loss, but because I'm projecting forward I don't really see that happening to any of these teams (note: odds are it WILL actually happen to one of these teams, I just don't know which one but I have to bet I'd go with one of the C-USA squads). St. Mary's home loss to Loyola-Marymount this week was surprising, but that's three wins for Loy-Mary over RPI top 50 teams, so it's certainly not a bad enough loss to cause any panic.
BUBBLE TEAMS (12): Harvard, Middle Tennessee State, Drexel, VCU, George Mason, Iona, Belmont, Davidson, Weber State, Akron, Oral Roberts, Nevada - Most of these teams have gaudy records, but most also have some seriously major flaws in their profiles so they're really only included here for shits and giggles. Harvard and Middle Tennessee State probably have the best shot with Harvard nearly a lock. The Nevada/Iona bracketbuster game on Saturday is basically an elimination game as is Akron @ Oral Roberts, and the results in that event for Drexel (@Cleveland State), Davidson (vs. Wichita), George Mason (vs. Lamar), and VCU (vs. Northern Iowa) will go a long way towards bumping teams up or bumping them down and out.
So where does that leave things? Well, thanks to expansion, there are 37 at-large bids and I'm calling 36 of them locked up already. However, assuming a team with an at-large resume wins each of the conferences that puts several back in play. Say North Carolina, Syracuse, Ohio State, Missouri, Cal, Kentucky, UNLV, Temple, St. Mary's, Creighton, Murray State, Southern Miss, and Long Beach all win their conference tournament that means there are 14 bids up in the air right now and I currently have 32 teams on the bubble for those 14 bids. But if we go a step further and assume Harvard, Middle Tennessee, Drexel, Iona, Belmont, Davidson, Weber State, Akron, Oral Roberts, and Nevada all win their conference tournaments that puts them out of the running for a bid, so suddenly it's 22 teams for 14 bids.
So your direct competition, Gopher fans, are these 21 teams:
North Carolina State
Miami (FL)
Seton Hall
West Virginia
Cincinnati
South Florida
Purdue
Illinois
Northwestern
Kansas State
Texas
Oregon
Washington
Arizona
Alabama
Mississippi State
Colorado State
Xavier
St. Joseph's
VCU
George Mason
The outlook is actually far more optimistic than I expected when I started doing this exercise, because some of these teams (St. Joe's, Colorado State, the Pac-10 teams, the Colonial teams, South Florida) are in far worse shape than the Gophers, so I can suddenly see why they seemed to still be in or on the cusp in most bubble watches. What this tells me is that despite everything the Gophers are still in control of their own destiny. Beat Northwestern, win one of the three middle games, and close it out with a win over Nebraska and get to 8-10 in this conference this year with a couple huge wins and good computer numbers and that's probably enough this year. Lose to Northwestern and it's a bit tougher, but on the flip side there's also an opportunity here to close out 4-1 and wrap up a bid pre-B10 tournament.
Seriously, just do it for once. Just one time. Take the chance at a bid, capitalize on it, and just run with it and be safe and relaxed on Selection Sunday because I'm going to be in Florida and I don't want to stress out. I just want to fish, watch the Twins a little bit and pretend they might be good, drink, read, and fish. That's it. There's no need to be dicks about this.
ACC:
IN (4): Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, Virginia - FSU's loss to BC and Virginia's loss to Clemson hurt, but both teams should be ok in the end
BUBBLE TEAMS (2): NC State, Miami - Neither team is in very good shape right now, because between the two of them Miami's win over Duke is the only good win either team has. Plenty of chances coming up to grab a bid though.
BIG EAST:
IN (6): Syracuse, Marquette, Georgetown, Louisville, UCONN, Notre Dame - Although both UCONN (late swoon) and Notre Dame (slow start) have some issues that make them less than true locks, both have enough on the board (UCONN computer numbers and a win over FSU; Notre Dame great play in the Big East including four wins over ranked teams) that it would be pretty stunning to see either miss out. The Irish are probably safer, but UCONN has five games left including Pitt, Nova, and @Providence. Even if they lose their other two (vs. Marquette and Syracuse) as long as they win those they get to .500 in the Big East which would be enough combined with the rest of the profile.
BUBBLE TEAMS (4): Seton Hall, West Virginia, Cincinnati, South Florida - The Hall and West Virginia are spiraling down, Cincy has to overcome a brutally bad non-conference schedule that included losses to Presbyterian and Marshall, and South Florida isn't even considered a bubble team by the ESPN guys (although with an RPI of 57 and a 9-4 Big East record, even with a thin resume other than that I have to include them). There's a very good chance none of these Bubble teams get in, although if SHU can go 3-1 to close out (@Cincy, G-Town, Rutgers, @DePaul) they're probably good.
BIG 10:
IN (5): Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana - although Wisconsin still sucks
BUBBLE TEAMS (4): Minnesota, Purdue, Illinois, Northwestern - these four teams are bunched so tightly it's hard to even pick an order, although after beating Illinois on the road to get to 7-6 in the conference you'd probably have to put Purdue on top (and Illinois on the bottom). With so many locks, rpi-hogs, and ranked teams in the conference it's going to come down to who can grab those chances to knock off a top team and get a quality win. The only game left between two of these four bubble squads is Saturday with the Gophers going to Northwestern (huge game) so reaching up and taking down a giant when the opportunity presents itself is how these teams will have to make their mark. (mmmmm.....maker's mark)
BIG 12:
IN (4): Missouri, Kansas, Baylor, Iowa State - I might be being a bit optimistic with the Cyclones, but two guaranteed wins left (home vs. Tex Tech and Oklahoma) mean ISU will get to 20 wins and at worst a 10-8 conference record with a decent RPI and no truly bad losses. The other bubble teams in the Big 12 are pretty weak, and I can't see only three teams getting in so I'm giving the Clones the nod.
BUBBLE TEAMS (2): Kansas State, Texas - both of these teams are terrible and will lose in the first round if they sneak into the tournament. Other than K State's win over Missouri there's not much here. K-State also beat Alabama, while Texas has wins over Iowa State and Temple and the two teams split with each other. Just not much to work with. Both have two chances for big wins left (Texas: @Kansas, vs. Baylor, K-State: @Baylor, @Missouri) and if either wins one of those and the games they're supposed to win they'll probably be in, but the point remains - these teams stink.
PAC-12:
IN (1): Uh, nobody? I'll put Cal in here because their RPI is significantly better than everyone else in the conference (#38 vs. mid-60s), an easier schedule the rest of the way (only 1 game versus a bubble team and it's at home), and a 5-4 record vs. the RPI top 100. But really, nobody looks good here.
BUBBLE TEAMS (3): Washington, Arizona, Oregon - These teams all have terrible RPIs, very few (if any) good wins, and some bad losses, but you still have to consider them as possible tournament teams because if any of them win out you're looking at things like 15-3 or 14-4 conference record and even in a down Pac-12 (again) that's tough to ignore. Each team only has one tough game left with Washington and Arizona playing each other on Saturday, but there are enough road potholes here that it would be super easy for all three to slip and miss the tournament.
SEC:
IN (3): Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt - it would take a monumental collapse for Vandy not to make it in, and Kentucky and Florida are pretty much deadlocks
BUBBLE TEAMS (2): Alabama, Mississippi State - Bama would have been a lock but suspensions to like, the entire team led to a loss to LSU and a home loss to Florida (a win in that one would have sealed the deal). They're still in ok shape, but with their two best players still suspended indefinitely the bad losses could start piling up. Miss State's back-to-back OT losses (to LSU and Georgia) have them going in the wrong direction, but a win next week at home over Kentucky would cure everything, and they have the talent to do it.
MOUNTAIN WEST:
IN (3): San Diego State, New Mexico, UNLV - Rather than taking a step back from a very successful campaign last year, the MWC might be stronger than ever, at least at the top. All 3 of these teams are solid locks.
BUBBLE TEAMS (1): Colorado State - Although the overall profile doesn't scream tournament team, the computer numbers are weirdly strong #28 RPI, #5 SOS. But the main reason to consider the Rams on the bubble is they have games left against New Mexico (home), SDSU (road), and UNLV (home). If they can somehow manage to go 2-1 in those (and beat #66 Wyoming at home) and combined with those computer numbers they're suddenly a bid stealer. NOTE: This probably won't happen.
ATLANTIC 10:
IN (2): Temple, St. Louis - Temple is solidly in, and although St. Louis isn't quite as certain at this point the Billikens are almost guaranteed to win three of their final 4 (Fordham, @Rhode Island, Xavier, @Duquesne) which would get them to 12-4 in the league and 24-6 overall. With a current RPI of 22, that'll do it.
BUBBLE TEAMS (2): Xavier, St. Joseph's - The Musketeers season tanked hard after the brawl vs. Cincy and although everybody seemed to waiting for them to recover they just never did and pretty much have to win their last five (including @St. Louis). I'm including St. Joe's here because of the decent RPI (#48) and their win over Creighton, but they basically have to beat Temple on Feb 25th (and win everything else) to have a chance.
THE REST:
IN (8): St. Mary's, Wichita State, Creighton, Gonzaga, Murray State, Southern Miss, Memphis, Long Beach State - because of the terrible conferences these teams play in any one of them falls off with more than 1 more loss, but because I'm projecting forward I don't really see that happening to any of these teams (note: odds are it WILL actually happen to one of these teams, I just don't know which one but I have to bet I'd go with one of the C-USA squads). St. Mary's home loss to Loyola-Marymount this week was surprising, but that's three wins for Loy-Mary over RPI top 50 teams, so it's certainly not a bad enough loss to cause any panic.
BUBBLE TEAMS (12): Harvard, Middle Tennessee State, Drexel, VCU, George Mason, Iona, Belmont, Davidson, Weber State, Akron, Oral Roberts, Nevada - Most of these teams have gaudy records, but most also have some seriously major flaws in their profiles so they're really only included here for shits and giggles. Harvard and Middle Tennessee State probably have the best shot with Harvard nearly a lock. The Nevada/Iona bracketbuster game on Saturday is basically an elimination game as is Akron @ Oral Roberts, and the results in that event for Drexel (@Cleveland State), Davidson (vs. Wichita), George Mason (vs. Lamar), and VCU (vs. Northern Iowa) will go a long way towards bumping teams up or bumping them down and out.
So where does that leave things? Well, thanks to expansion, there are 37 at-large bids and I'm calling 36 of them locked up already. However, assuming a team with an at-large resume wins each of the conferences that puts several back in play. Say North Carolina, Syracuse, Ohio State, Missouri, Cal, Kentucky, UNLV, Temple, St. Mary's, Creighton, Murray State, Southern Miss, and Long Beach all win their conference tournament that means there are 14 bids up in the air right now and I currently have 32 teams on the bubble for those 14 bids. But if we go a step further and assume Harvard, Middle Tennessee, Drexel, Iona, Belmont, Davidson, Weber State, Akron, Oral Roberts, and Nevada all win their conference tournaments that puts them out of the running for a bid, so suddenly it's 22 teams for 14 bids.
So your direct competition, Gopher fans, are these 21 teams:
North Carolina State
Miami (FL)
Seton Hall
West Virginia
Cincinnati
South Florida
Purdue
Illinois
Northwestern
Kansas State
Texas
Oregon
Washington
Arizona
Alabama
Mississippi State
Colorado State
Xavier
St. Joseph's
VCU
George Mason
The outlook is actually far more optimistic than I expected when I started doing this exercise, because some of these teams (St. Joe's, Colorado State, the Pac-10 teams, the Colonial teams, South Florida) are in far worse shape than the Gophers, so I can suddenly see why they seemed to still be in or on the cusp in most bubble watches. What this tells me is that despite everything the Gophers are still in control of their own destiny. Beat Northwestern, win one of the three middle games, and close it out with a win over Nebraska and get to 8-10 in this conference this year with a couple huge wins and good computer numbers and that's probably enough this year. Lose to Northwestern and it's a bit tougher, but on the flip side there's also an opportunity here to close out 4-1 and wrap up a bid pre-B10 tournament.
Seriously, just do it for once. Just one time. Take the chance at a bid, capitalize on it, and just run with it and be safe and relaxed on Selection Sunday because I'm going to be in Florida and I don't want to stress out. I just want to fish, watch the Twins a little bit and pretend they might be good, drink, read, and fish. That's it. There's no need to be dicks about this.
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