Can we Answer any Twins' Questions yet?

Before the baseball season started this year I said the Twins' weren't going to be very good.  Bold prediction, I know, but I also said that would be ok because it would give us a chance to answer some questions about some of the Twins' "fringey" guys and figure out who would be a future building block for the team and who wouldn't - or at least shouldn't.  I think we are far enough into the season at this point to at least start looking at the answer to that question on some of these dudes.

Chris Parmelee - Parmelee has always hit well in the minors, including crushing AAA pitching last year to the tune of .338/.457/.645 with 17 homers in 64 games and as he's just 25 years old there's still hope, but it is fading and fading quickly.  He's hitting just .223/.302/.346 so far this year, and believe it or not that's only a slight regression from where he was in last season's late audition when he was terrible.

To put it in perspective, that OPS he's sporting is about what you'd expect from a typical Alexi Casilla season, and considering Parmelee is a poor fielder and not a good baserunner he's clearly been one of the least valuable players on the team this year (and his -0.4 WAR backs me up).  Since his only possible positions are ones of premium offensive importance (1B/RF) and he offers little besides his bat, things don't look good.  He's not showing the power he displayed at AAA and complimenting that by walking less and striking out more.  Other than all that things are going great.

Brian Dozier - Might as well follow up one big disappointment with another, because Dozier flat stinks, hitting just .230/.284/.340 and basically performing like a slightly non-broke man's Drew Butera without the premium defense and a tough position.  Actually although he's a pretty horrendous shortstop he's been decent second basemen, but decent fielding can't offset that piss poor hitting or whatever it is he's doing up there.

The saddest part of all of this is that thanks to his solid fielding and good base-running (fangraphs has him as the #2 base-runner on the team which includes things like going from 1st to 3rd on a single and what-not) Dozier actually ranks as the 4th best Twin position player this year by WAR (behind Mauer, Florimon - more on him later, and Morneau).  That's not a positive regarding Dozier, more of an indictment of how awful the Twins have been seeing as how he ranks 62nd out of the 86 players in the majors who qualify for the batting title in WAR.  I've pretty much given up on this guy.

Trevor Plouffe - Plouffe hasn't been able to follow up on his torrid streak last year where he hit 13 homers in 22 games, making Danny Valencia expendable (well, more expendable) and finishing with 24 homers on the year (the most for a Twin 3B since Corey Koskie's 25 in 2004) but he does seem to be settling in to the kind of player we could expect year after year.  It's pretty good, and would be very good if he was a better fielder.

Plouffe's value almost solely comes from his bat, and his year he's hitting .264/.344/.457 and should end up in the vicinity of 20 homers again assuming no more injuries.  Plouffe's OPS of .801 ranks 6th in the AL among third basemen, which is great but is offset by his fielding.  Plouffe's cut down on his errors, which is encouraging, but his range is the fourth worst in the AL among 3Bs (as imprecise as this is).  I don't know if you can teach range, so at this point he probably is what he is:  a guy with stone feet who will hit around .260 each year with about 20 dingers and walk a little.  Good enough for you?  Good enough for me, provided he continues to clean up his fielding. 

Pedro Florimon - He isn't a guy who I even dreamed about thinking about the possibility of him being in the Twins' future when contention time rolls around again (please roll around again) but it's not out of the realm of possibility.  Granted he's a pretty terrible hitter (slightly better than Dozier this year, though) but his fielding and base running (7 steals in 7 attempts helps here quite a bit) have turned him into the second most valuable Twin so far this year with a 1.4 WAR.  Yes, once again this mostly just means the Twins are really horrible, but comparing him league wide yields some eye opening results.

Among all shortstops in the major leagues, Florimon ranks 1st in range, and ranks 3rd in overall fielding value since he makes too many errors right now.  Add in some excellent base running (tops on the team, fourth among all big league shortstops, and despite floundering around at the plate Florimon is the 8th most valuable shortstop in the majors, all things considered.  It seems a bit bizarre I'll grant you, and fielding and base running metrics aren't an exact science, but he does pass the eye test there as well so it's close enough for me.  He has increased his power and his walk rate this year compared to last, and although at 27 we're probably past time for a big breakout if it was coming (and his minor league numbers suggest that it certainly wasn't) Florimon should end up sticking around for a while as either your slick fielding number 9 hitter or defensive whiz substitution guy, both of which are far from where I had originally though he'd be which is the California Penal League where they don't wear caps or sleeves.

Glen Perkins - I was of the opinion that Perkins was a half-way decent set-up guy of the dime a dozen type who would probably manage to get a few saves and hopefully the Twins would trade him because saves are so overvalued.  I still think they should probably trade him, but now, with him proving to be nearly unhittable (WHIP 0.82/OAV .165 - both 4th best in the AL) and striking out 12.62 per 9 innings (7th best), and being under team control until 2016 if they decide to roll with him as their future closer, I can deal.  

That being said, they would be foolish not to at least listen to offers come trade deadline time.  Perkins has been great, but closers are notoriously volatile and the Twins likely won't really even need a closer until 2015 at the earliest, so a contender with closer issues like Detroit (yes, even though GASP they're in the same division) or Arizona or Boston or somebody might be willing to drastically overpay from a prospect perspective.  If somebody is willing to give you a legit prospect or even a young established player at a greater position of need (would Detroit give up Rick Porcello, for example?) wouldn't you have to do it?  I guess this all depends on how you value closers.  If you're like me and think most closers are interchangeable with their set-up men then yes.  If you're wrong, then no.


That's about it outside of the starting staff (who I will look at in an upcoming post because geez what a mess that is).  I could go through a couple of other guys with questions like "Can Eduardo Escobar help justify the Francisco Liriano trade by becoming the next Denny Hocking/Jeff Reboulet type?" (No, not white gritty enough) or "Can Wilkin Ramirez stick around?" (Honestly I don't even know if he's still on the team) but that doesn't really seem like something I'm going to do. 

Game 6 Live Blog

Hey guys.  Since I can barely ever figure out anything to write about since the Gophers are in the offseason and the Twins suck (actually I have a Twins post in the hopper, should be up tomorrow) I'm going to just live blog Game 6 because hopefully their won't be a Game 7 because I've come to loathe Lebron James.  Go figure.  Also somebody once emailed me to tell me that these aren't really live blogs because the reader can't follow along in real time and they should be called running diaries.  He had a good point, so I tracked him to his house and beat him to death with a chainsaw.  Anyway, we're picking up the game here with 5:50 left in the first quarter, San Antonio up 18-16.

5:20 - Whoa you guys, so weird, but Lebron is bitching at the ref after fat Boris Diaw just went and scored right in his stupid face.  I can't believe I used to consider Tim Duncan a whiner.  He's like Barry Sanders compared to James, and Wade isn't much better. 

3:55 - I think I've figured out a big problem for the Heat.  Mike Miller and Ray Allen are their only good outside shooters, and neither one of them could guard your average player at the YMCA.  Or Boris Diaw, and that's now two more mentions of Diaw than I was expecting to make on this blog this decade.

2:28 - Problem #2 - the crowd just went nuts because Birdman checked in.  Of course they love the guy, he's white.  But he can't guard anybody on the Spurs - except maybe Splitter.  And Shane Battier just took a charge on one end and then banked in a three pointer on the other.  Some hate never dies.

0:53 - Danny Green missed.  That was weird.

2Q, 11:42 - Birdman dives for a loose ball on the ground.  So gritty.

11:00 - Defensive breakdown by Miami leaves Green wide open and he buries it.  It's so ridiculous.  I can't decide if this is on the players or Spoelstra, but it's pretty god damn embarrassing that he ever gets an open look.

9:20 - There isn't a lot of meat in these gym mats.  Also, Tiago Splitter is pretty terrible.

7:58 - Oh man this shit is crazy, but Dwyane Wade is now yelling at the ref about a "missed" call.  What are the odds?

6:56 - If I'm Spoelstra, I immediately bench anybody who passes to Chris Bosh.  And if I'm Popovich I give the ball to Duncan every single time Bosh is guarding him because he has no shot at stopping him.  I guess what I'm saying is, Chris Bosh is the Ron Weasley of this Big Three.

4:32 - Wade now passing up wide open 14 foot jumpers.  It's been surreal watching him in this series.  He's become Joe Coleman.  You know, in theory and all that, not for reals.

4:18 - Birdman saves the ball by diving into the crowd.  He's Puntonian.

2:47 - My wife was a redhead when I met her.  By the time I realized the truth, I was hooked and it was too late.  She's never dyed her hair that shade again.  That's bullshit, right?

1:23 - Jesus Chris Bosh is terrible.  Can't stop Duncan on the block, then misses a short jumper, followed by not hustling down the court and allowing a Tim Duncan uncontested dunk, then misses another jumper, then allows Diaw to come right at him and score.  So ugly.  All the other velociraptors out there must be so embarrassed.  Also, how horrible is it that the Toronto franchise named themselves after a trendy animal (extinct - allegedly) from a trendy movie?  I know the movie is still an all time great and probably one of my top 5 all-time (well, top 10) but it's still stupid.

0:00 - Spurs 50, Heat 44 thanks to a late run by San Antonio and Tim Duncan completely dominating Bosh.  Supernintendo Chalmers was the one who kept the Heat close in the first half, so well, that doesn't bode well for the Heat.

3Q, 11:38 - Ginobilli gives Ray Allen a quick jab step, Allen backs up about 8 feet, Ginobilli with the step back 3.  Allen can still shoot the lights out, but he seriously can't guard anybody.  I don't know what the answer is though, because nobody is very good on the Heat lately.  Maybe Chalmers-Wade-James-Birdman-Haslem?  I dunno.

10:17 - Spurs have completely given the offense over to Ginobilli, simply because Allen is on him.  Their entire offense the last three trips has been Manu driving on Allen, and they've scored on the first two prior to Danny Green trying to drive on Lebron which he really shouldn't do ever.

8:12 - Bosh's offense seems to be to get the ball on the block and pray to the lord baby santa jesus that a double team comes so he can pass it to someone else.  If it seems like I'm being unnecessarily hard on Bosh I assure you it's completely necessary. 

7:29 - Sometimes when I watch him I wonder if Ginobilli is drunk.

5:54 - I've now watch Mike Miller (an all-time fave dating back to his Florida days, by the way) drive to the hoop in traffic for a lay-up and get called for a foul battling for a rebound.  Honest to god I was pretty sure all that guy did was make 3s, get high, and get weed for other people.  Oh, and gets paid like $5 million per year to do it.  While played, Stoner.  Well played.

5:54 - Good hair, too.

4:54 - What's your favorite movie to prominently feature vampires?  I'd say Lost Boys followed by Interview with a Vampire and Lost Boys II. 

3:50 - Not to be outdone, now the entire Heat team is bitching at the refs.  This is looking like we could have some serious unravel potential here.  Spurs 71, Heat 58.

3:22 - Lebron on Parker.  Great defense, Spurs turnover, Battier 3.  Interesting.

1:36 - Awesome.  After the Heat pick up a little momentum scoring five straight with Lebron checking Parker, Lebron drives to the rim and gets bumped a little and decides to sit on the floor and whine to the ref instead of hustling back which leads to Ray Allen trying to guard Parker and you know how that probably turned out. 

4Q, 11:40 - I think Mario Chalmers has like, 30 points.  He's pretty much kept them in the game.  Now Miami has Lebron, Miller, Allen, Birdman, and Chalmers in the game.  Weird lineup, but they've scored the first five of the quarter to cut it to 75-70.

10:24 - Now a four point game after a Miller 3.  I'm thinking maybe we get Splitter out of there now, yeah?

7:55 - Lebron making this interesting by kind of totally taking over the Heat offense.  Like he probably could have been doing many, many times prior to now.

7:08 - Seems like we got ourselves a ballgame.  82-80 Spurs.

6:34 - Tie game.  Lebron just thriving without Wade and Bosh in the game.  Kind of fascinating. 

4:43 - Lebron keeps getting into the lane for lay-ups (87-84 Heat).  It's impressive how he's taken over the game, but Spurs need to force him into shooting jump shots . Like that, the one he just missed.  I know all.

1:47 - San Antonio ball down by 3.  I keep forgetting to type stuff. 

1:27 - Holy Tony Parker step back three. Wow.

0:58 - And a steal by Parker, followed by a bucket by Parker to put the Spurs up two.  This is fantastic.  I just wish I was drunker.

0:37 - Holy crap.  James somehow ends up with Parker on him, takes him into the lane, and then just straight up loses the ball which leads to a run out 2-on-1 for the Spurs which leads to Ginobilli making both and a 93-89 Spurs lead.  What a turnaround.

0:28 - Lebron airball.  This is not going to help his "chocker" legacy.  And, you're never going to believe this, but he's bitching at the ref that he got fouled.  Also, I'd have to double check, but when did Wade come back in the game?  Was that when shit fell apart?

0:20 - Lebron absolutely bricks a three, then Mike Miller (???!!?!?!?) gets the offensive rebound and finds James again who makes this one, and we're at 94-92 Spurs.  The real problem I'm having is I hate Lebron, yet I hate the irrational Lebron haters even more.  I don't know what to root for.  Hopefully I suffer a stroke of some kind and don't know what ends up happening.  Can you still get a boner if you have a stroke?  This is important.

0:19 - Leonard misses the first.  Shit just got real.

0:05 - Lebron misses the three (of course) but after an o-board Ray Allen nails the tying shot (of course).  Also, I think we may have a Chris Webber situation here.  Please hold.  Wait nevermind they're reviewing that shot which was a clear 3-pointer.  Also, way not to have Duncan out there so Bosh, who is a tremendous pussy don't forget, could get that huge offensive rebound. 

0:00 - And we're heading to overtime.  Well shit.

0:00 - Seriously I think if the Heat just leave Wade on the bench for OT they win.  Otherwise they lose.  Somebody bet me.

4:39 - Allen opens OT by shooting a 2-pointer.  What a dummy.  Also, they seriously give each team 3 timeouts per overtime?  That's outrageous.  Also, that turnaround jumper by James from 18 feet when he doesn't have that shot in his arsenal and was only also lightly guarded was outrageous.  Also, because shit is happening really quickly here, I think Manu Ginobilli is shockingly dumb for how much basketball he's played in his career.

3:24 - I can't think of a single good reason fro Boris Diaw to be in the game.  Other than that huge offensive board he just grabbed.  I'm an idiot.

2:42 - You're never going to believe this, but Ray Allen is pretty sure he didn't foul Tony Parker there.  Didn't Allen used to be a pretty straight up class act?  Effing Wade and Lebron.  It's like when those guys in Dazed and Confused turn Tim Lincecum into a pothead.  HOW'D THAT ALL TURN OUT, STONERS?  Now he's terrible.

1:18 - Allen looks seriously rejuvenated here, like he's in takeover mode.  He's even driving to the hope and other Jesus Shuttlesworth things like that and I think he just blocked a shot.  If he keeps going he's going to end up in a threesome with pornstars. 

0:40 - Ginobilli now appears to be point shaving.  Also, that ball was off Lebron.  Straight up great defense by Green, and, this will come as a shock, Lebron is bitching at the ref.

0:31 - Bosh with the biggest defensive play of the game blocking Parker's jumper like he was Hakim Warrick.  I will admit I really didn't see that one coming.

0:02 - So bizarre.  Spurs take Parker out when the Heat have the ball for some reason I either haven't been paying attention to or don't understand.  Then the Heat miss and Spurs have the ball with 10 seconds to go, and rather than call timeout to get Parker back in the game they let the point shaver go barrelling into the lane like a 2nd grader who just learned to dribble?  Which, of course, leads to a turnover and two Ray Allen free throws to put the Spurs up 3?  Fuck me.  Heat win another championship.

Lame

The Timberwolves #26 Pick

Shortly after my post about the #9 pick, NBADraft.net changed their projection from McCollum to Kentavious Caldwell-Pope for the Timberwolves.  Coincidence?  I think probably.

When the Timberwolves have a pick this late in the first round, they have a tendency to trade the pick away.  This isn't without reason because you can move back just a few picks and get a similar roll of the dice on a player with a non-guaranteed contract.  In 2012, the 26th pick scaled in at about $900k guaranteed for two years with a team option for the third year. The Wolves aren't the only team with this master plan though -- which is why you see so much activity late in the first and early in the second.

#26 Picks in prior drafts:

2012  PF Mason Miles Plumlee - White Stiff
2011  SF Jordan Hamilton - Not so sharpshooter
2010  SF Quincy Pondexter - Somewhat useful bench guy out of Washington
2009  PF Taj Gibson - Key Bulls bench guy good/great defender
2008  PG George Hill - Solid enough PG, started for the Pacers last season after backing up for the Spurs
2007  PG Aaron Brooks - Backup PG, one good season for the Rockets
2006  PG Jordan Farmar - Has a nice vertical jump
2005  PF Jason Maxiell - Defensive minded backup big man
2004  SG Kevin Martin - Former Houston gunner that is now OKC 6th man
2003  SF Ndudi Ebi - Doodie Eeeebeee! NBA vets Kendrick Perkins, Leandro Barbosa and Josh Howard were                              the next 3 picks.
2002  SF John Salmons - Mediocre 3 that still gets quite a bit of time with the Kings.  Has a beard like                                  a billy-goat.
2001  C Samuel Dalembert - Long time starting center in the league - still starting with the Bucks
2000  PF Mamadou N'Diaye - Senegal sensation didn't amount to much.  Marko Jaric went #30.
1999  PG Vonteego Cummings - 3 years in NBA, then a bunch overseas. 
1998  SG Sam Jacobson - Sam is now 37, damn I'm old. 

Surprisingly, I see only 5 flops here (Farmar, Ebi, N'Diaye, Cummings, Jacobson).  Giving Plumlee, Hamilton and Pondexter incompletes; I see another 2 role players/bench types (Brooks/Maxiell).  Gibson, Martin, Hill, Salmons and Dalembert either are or were starters or they are one of the first players off of the bench.  So this pick over the last 15 years has shown to be somewhat useful.

This draft is considered by many to be historically bereft of elite talent at the top.  However, I've also heard and read that there is talent to be had later in the draft, so I guess there's a perceived plateau of talent.  Of particular note are the number of guards that are likely to be available later in the draft.  Let's look at who the mock drafts have the Wolves taking here and some other players I think should be considered:

Mock Picks I've Seen:

Tim Hardaway Jr., SG - Michigan -- 6'6" shooting guard and son of the Killer Crossover has a good jumper but doesn't strike me as being super explosive.  The Junior was surprisingly not super great off the dribble, but rather a spot-up type shooter.  The Wolves need shooters, but Tim Jr. strikes me as one of these players that kind of is what he is.  Not a lot of upside, in my opinion.  NBADraft.net says his comparison is Wesley Person -- the jumper is very reminiscent of Wesley's. 

Reggie Bullock, SG/SF - UNC --Chris Mannix of SI.com has the Wolves selecting 6'7" small forward Bullock at #26.  The junior is another big time shooter from downtown (44%); I guess everyone got the message that we sucked at 3s last year.  Like Hardaway, he's not a great ball handler and is considered a spot up shooter.  Reggie has a nice balanced jumper with a quick, high release.  He averaged 6.5 rebounds in 2013, but is unlikely to be inside as much as he was at UNC. 

Tony Mitchell, SF/PF - North Texas -- 6'9" 236lb athletic power forward has a 7'3" wingspan and can get up there for those Ricky Rubio lob passes and finish.  He's considered a very good defender at multiple positions and a shot blocker.  He did shoot a relatively low percentage from the field for a big man (43.7%) and wasn't great from deep (28.9%).  The biggest red flags are the decrease in production in a lot of categories from his freshman year to sophomore year (2013) and the fact that he admitted he didn't give his all last year.  Some say he has lottery talent, and I'm more of the opinion to try for some upside at 26 than get a guy that's "safe" and is your 9th/10th man. 

Glen Rice Jr. SG/SF - D-League -- 22yo Rice ended up in the D-League after bombing out of Georgia Tech.  He was a big scorer, averaging 13ppg during the regular season and 25ppg in the playoffs.  Rice is just 6'6", but has a 6'10" wingspan.  Rice is a scorer - he can get in the lane or shoot it from deep.  He's clearly a knob-head though and could create some headaches.  He's also not super quick, streaky and kind of a poop defender too.  What's not to love?

Others Players of Interest:

Tony Snell/Allen Crabbe - Both are junior shooting guards; from New Mexico and Cal respectively.  Both are lights out shooters that are in the 6'6"-7" and 200lb range.  Snell is the better ballhandler, while I think Crabbe is the better overall scorer.  Both have a little bit of the soft label.

Jamaal Franklin - I've seen this guy anywhere from 15 to 30.  He's a 6'5" small forward from San Diego St. that appears to be riding a little bit of a hype train after the value that former teammate Kawhi Leonard proved to be for the Spurs this year.  He's super athletic and has a good mid-range game.  Has a crazy 6'11.25" wingspan; which combined with his athleticism helps him on both ends of the floor.  Only shot 28% from 3 and turned the ball over quite a bit as the main guy at SDSU (3.4 TO/G)

Gorgui Dieng -6'11" center is already 23, but is a solid defender and rebounder and isn't completely useless around the rim.  If the Wolves go wing at #9, some big man depth would be welcome here.  Just please don't let it be Colton Iverson.

Rudy Gobert - Stretched out French big man is 7'2" with a whopping 7'9" reach.  He turns 21 in June and needs to eat a lot of sandwiches to hang in the NBA.  There's a decent possibility he'd be an overseas stash for a year or two. Probably doomed to a nickname like the Eiffel Tower.

Giannis Adetokonbo - Athletic, 6'9" Greek (via Nigeria) dude with a 7'3" wingspan.  He doesn't turn 19 until December and is considered a high risk-high reward guy.  He played in the Greek A2 league and had no one to stop him from going dunk-monster on everyone overseas. (averaged 8pts, 5rebs)  He has the size and speed to guard multiple positions on the front line.  His jumper is a question mark, although he did shoot 31.3% from 3, so perhaps he can develop. 

Wolves NBA Draft Notes

The NBA Draft is June 27th and the Timberwolves have the 9th and 26th picks. Let's look at what might be there at #9.

Flip Saunders has made it no secret that he has a burning desire for Indiana shooting guard Victor Oladipo.  After working out some players on Thursday he hopped a plane to go see Oladipo in DC.  Everyone knows that Oladipo is a good defender, but he's been climbing mock drafts based on his improvements in his offensive game.  Oladipo would be a great fit for the Wolves, but is it better to try and get a big man at 9 and wait on a shooter until 26 given the depth there in this draft?  Or do they just take the best available guy?  Or dangle Williams in a deal to move up to get "their guy"?

Here's a vid of Oladipo scoring against no defenders:

 
BTW, I like those drills where they whack on the guy with pads while he's in the lane.  Good stuff.

So, what do the Wolves need besides having everyone heal up and stop doing knuckle pushups?  Here's the roster and their contract length:

PG:
Ricky Rubio through 14/15
Luke Ridnour through 13/14
JJ Barea through 14/15

SG:
Alexey Shved through 15/16
Malcolm Lee through 13/14

SF:
Andrei Kirilenko PLAYER OPTION
Chase Budinger FREE AGENT

PF:
Kevin Love through 15/16
Derrick Williams through 14/15
Dante Cunningham TEAM OPTION

C:
Nikola Pekovic FREE AGENT
Greg Stiemsma TEAM OPTION

Other FA/Release: Brandon Roy, Josh Howard, Louis Amundson, Wil Conroy, Mickael Gelabale

Official free agency negotiations don't begin until July 1, so the Wolves have some opportunity to be flexible in the draft.  Needs still appear to be a shooting guard that can defend and shoot from the outside and a big man.  Budinger is a nice option presuming he can bounce back, but I certainly wouldn't begrudge the Wolves trying to get a legit SF as Kirilenko plays a lot of 4 and is no spring chicken.  Ridnour and Barea are both serviceable players as backups at the point -- unfortunately they've been pressed into much more service than you'd like.  Shved also can play some point, so I don't think it's a huge need.  There's some depth at the 4, even if Williams is moved.  I refuse to list Williams as a 3 since he's proven he can't do it.

For the bigs, Nikola Pekovic is pretty much a must sign even though he'll cost the Wolves a lot of cash.  Stiemsma showed some energy and defense at times, but I was surprised at how many mistakes he makes on the court as well.  I do like his shot blocking, but if we score someone in the draft in might be worth saving the money it costs to bring him back.  The Wolves have until July 17th to decide, so they can draft and even consider potential free agent options before making a move.

Looking at a bunch of mock drafts the consensus is Oladipo will be gone by the #9 spot.  I've seen a couple of 8s, a 6 and even a 5 pick for him. If he's there at 8 would the Pistons move back a pick for the #26 selection?  Maybe.  Is it worth it?  I lean a little more towards keeping the #26 and taking two stabs in a draft that seems to have a big group of guys that aren't separated by much.

For the #9, the mock draft group-thinkers almost all think that CJ McCollum out of Lehigh is the pick.  McCollum is terrific with the ball in his hands and can shoot (51% from 3).  He even got a Stephen Curry comparison from Hoopshype.com.  He's also a big time transition scorer, which fits well with Rubio.  What he doesn't have is size (6'3") and he's not much of a defender.  He's also a senior, so what you see might be what you get.  Here's an incredibly long youtube clip about him:

The odd man out on the four mocks I looked at had the Wolves taking Shabazz Muhammad, the 6'6" shooter out of UCLA.  They must have assumed that Wolves brass where watching his 6 of 18 performance against the Gophers in the NCAA Tournament.  Or the fact that he's now magically 20 instead of 19 years old.  In other mocks I reviewed he's at #17 (twice) and #13th.  Most consider him not an amazing athlete like an Oladipo, but he's a high volume shooter and some believe he still has upside.  He also has Tourette's Syndrome which is pretty kickass.  He's also a lefty with a beard, so obviously he's the next James Harden.

Another wing to consider is Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, a sophomore out of Georgia.  Caldwell-Pope is right in that 9-13 range at the end of the lottery by most mocks.  I've seen him in the 10 spot to Portland a few times.  Paul Allen (Blazers owner, not homer Vikings guy) even attended a workout.  Kentavious is a very good shooter and at 6'5" 205, he's got decent size.  He's also a pretty great rebounder, notching 7.1 a game; which means he's not afraid to mix it up at least I guess.  KCP is also considered a very good defender and kicked butt in speed and agility drills.  I dig him and wouldn't mind him at #9 one bit. 

There are also some big men that are near the #9 spot in the mock drafts.  The bonus of taking a big instead of a wing is there are a lot of wings later in the draft that could be had at #26.  However, if Nikola is signed and delivered, the SG/SF is the greater need.  Here's a quick look at a few big men:

Zeller doesn't need to see to dunk

Cody Zeller,  6'11" Soph Indiana -- Zeller has been previously thought of as a sure fire top 5 pick, but his stock has slid in some circles. He looks like a big goofus but he's incredibly athletic for his size.  He recorded a 33.5" standing vertical leap, which is like crazy high.  In fact, it's the best by anyone over 6'8" in more than ten years.  He shoots a nice jumper and runs like a mofo.  He'd be a great change of speed with Pek banging around in the middle.

Steven Adams 7' Frosh Pitt -- Adams is a big bad man in the middle.  The seven footer clocks in with a 7'4.5" wingspan and had a great combine where he flashed a pretty nice jumper.  He also has gigantic hands. Adams is another player I'd be ok with in the 9 spot. 

Lucas Nogueria (Bebe) 7' Spain -- Bebe has been linked to Philly at #11 in a few mock drafts after a recent good showing at the Eurocamp.  He's athletic for a man with a 7'6" wingspan. At just 220 pounds his body is not quite ready for the NBA.  He's about as high risk, high reward as it gets as he was previously though of as a stud in the making and then had a poor showing in 2011 at Eurocamp.  I like the untapped potential, but not at #9 overall.

Kelly Olynyk 6'11" Junior Gonzaga -- I've seen Olynyk in the #15 range in mocks so I'm throwing him on this list.  It could be the goofy hair, but he has a bit of a Luis Scola vibe to him.  The NBADraft.net comparison is Fabricio Oberto, so there's that.  He's getting a lot of "skilled" big man comments on the internet and he backed that up with 18.1ppg on 66% shooting.   In addition to looking goofy he also has a freakishly short wingspan for his height.  He's 6'10.75" without shoes and has 6'9.75" arms. 


So there you have it.  I'm at least 72% sure that one of these guys is on the Timberwolves come draft night (barring a trade).  I'll take a look at the #26 pick next week.

Tuesday Talkers

Going to be flipping between the Twins and the NBA Finals tonight, so might as well write some random stuff while doing those things.

- First off, I know we are all very excited about our little Byron Buxton and the just promoted to double-A Miguel Sano and with good reason.  Buxton is hitting .350/.444/.578 with 8 triples, 7 homers, and 26 steals while playing amazing defense and Sano hit .330/.424/.655 with 16 home runs in 56 games before his promotion.  No doubt these guys are crushing it and, assuming nothing significantly changes, both will be rated as top 10 prospects in all of baseball when next year's rankings come out.  It's very, very awesome, but the hype train might want to back up just a hair.

On the radio today I heard both Dubay and PA spout complete inanities about these guys (and yes, they are two of the biggest dummies when it comes to baseball among all people who have a public voice so I know they're almost going to say something stupid, but this just really bugged me).  Dubay's big call was that Sano would be a September call-up this year, which is wrong for two reasons.  First, you never go from A-ball to the major leagues in one season, it just doesn't happen unless somebody can prove me wrong but I'm sure it's extremely rare.  Even if he finishes the year tearing up AA like he did A I just can't see it happening.  Secondly, the money issue.  It's moot if he ends up starting 2014 in the majors, which I could see happening but kind of doubt it after Aaron Hicks started so slowly this year, but if they call him up in September guess what?  That major league service time clock gets going a year early.  The Twins are no longer cheap, but that doesn't mean they want to start giving out big money contracts a year early.  Won't happen.

The far more egregious and stupid comment came from PA which is something I assume we are all accustom to at this point, in that he said Buxton should be in the majors RIGHT NOW.  He also said if Buxton had started the year in the majors (yes this year) he would be as good or better than Aaron Hicks so far.  I'm not even going to start to break this doubt because it would be an insult to all of us, but I just don't get the PA popularity.  His knowledge of sports is extremely limited to NFL-only and he's only ok with that, his interview skills are subpar, and his personality is grating and annoying.  Yet, when I was listening to a Vikings game on the radio with a group of people one time somebody said, "Man I love PA" and then somebody else said "He's the best" and then everybody agreed.  I just don't get it.  Is it the raging homerism thing?  Do people love a homer announcer?  He's an idiot and a jackass and is stupid.  It's so confusing.  Sometimes I wonder if I'm living in some kind of weird dream world and this isn't real life.

- One other thing that's kind of getting lost in the Buxton/Sano hype is that Eddie Rosario was also promoted to AA along with Sano.  Rosario may not have the hype of the other two, but he's a pretty big deal and ranks consistently in the top 5 or top 10 on most Twins prospect lists, and is becoming even more valuable after his conversion from outfield to second base which, based on being promoted here, is likely going well.  He can hit (.329/.377/.527 this year) and if he can field at the 4-spot he may be the guy to finally fill that second base hole that's been on this team seemingly since Rod Carew.  Hurry up, Eddie, I can't take much more Brian Dozier.

-  Since I've been typing I've now seen Josh Willingham, Justin Morneau, and Oswaldo Arcia absolutely drill balls back-to-back-to-back off Cole Hamels and it makes one wonder - what is up with that dude?  Long time readers may remember that Hamels was my boyfriend for a while, but he's just been brutal this year.  Thing is, I can't find a single thing you can point to and say "that's the problem."  He's practically been the exact same pitcher this year as he's always been.  The only difference at all is batters are making more contact than usual when they swing at pitches in the strike zone (84% vs. 82%), he's given up more infield hits (16% vs. 11%), and more fly balls he's given up are going out of the park (13% vs. 11.5%).  All of that says his results have been more the result of a fluke than anything significant going on with him.  Then I see him basically put it on a tee for four straight Twin batters and I wonder if he's just making more mistakes this year - the higher contact rates in the zone and homer/flyball rates could back that up.  So, I guess I'm not sure yet what's his deal.  What am I, Galileo?

-  I actually had someone tell me they thought That's My Boy was a really good and funny movie.  No I didn't punch him immediately in the neck but only because we were at softball and we are on the same team and that would have caused all kinds of issues, but I kind of wanted to.

-  Speaking of movies, I caught a little bit of Reign of Fire recently, which is that movie with Christian Bale and Matthew McConaughey about dragons in a post apocalyptic world.   It's mostly a terrible movie, but Bale and McConaughey both rock and obviously dragons are like the bomb and stuff so every time I see it I ended up staying on the channel at least long enough to see a dragon fight and quite often end up watching the entire rest of the movie.  So if you're a fan of dragons and/or hot guys you should totally check it out on your netflix or hulu or whatever people watch stuff on these days.

-  The fact that Lebron James hasn't developed a true post game yet drives me crazy - almost as much as his constant bitching.  After the success of having him play the 4 in the Finals last year after Bosh got hurt he had to know they were going to be doing it a lot this season, but still he didn't develop any kind of offensive post moves.  I mean yeah he's still effective posting up and finding shooters or cutters, but his offensive game on the block is to put it on the floor and drive to the hoop.  Sure that works sometimes and he can get to the line that way as well, but can you imagine him with a turnaround jumper or a little jump hook or something?  I know it seems silly to criticize someone who just put up a season where he averaged 27, 8, & 7 while shooting 57%, but man, what if he had an actual post game?  That's fairly terrifying, in a boner inducing way.  Pretty sure he'd still bitch about everything though.

-  Wow the Spurs are just daring Lebron to take jumpers.  Seems to be working since he just bricked a wide open three.
 
 - Should be a very interesting U.S. Open.  From what I've heard the rough will be rough, but tons of rain will make the greens incredibly soft and slow so you'll see a whole lot of conservative play off the tee (to keep in in the fairway) and then aggressive shots into the green.  Sounds like a recipe for an awfully low winning score, which the U.S. Open hates, but there are three par-3s over 235 yards which is going to equalize things a bit, as well as only two par-5s to keep scores in check.  I know a lot of people like to say stuff like "I like it better when it's super tough because then the cream really rises to the top" but really the last few winners when the winning score was even or worse were Webb Simpson, Graeme McDowell, Angel Cabrera, Geoff Ogilvy, and Michael Campbell while the last few winners at -5 or better are Rory McIlroy, Jim Furyk, Tiger Woods, Ernie Els, Lee Janzen, and Payne Stewart.  I mean, that's a pretty clearly better second grouping, right?  Just proves my theory that people are idiots.  Man, I got a lot of evidence for that theorem.  I'll probably be in a magazine soon.

-  Wow Lebron has just been terrible.  Kawhi Leonard refusing to let him drive by giving him the jumper and James can't hit anything.  He's 2-11 from the field right now and if it wasn't for the incredible, incomparable Mike Miller being 5-5 from three this one would be over already.  And now that's 2-12, and he's whining to the ref.  I think I hate this guy.

-  Oh yeah, and I don't have any favorites for the U.S. Open yet.  I need to take a look at a few things before I give you your good futures bets, but without spending too much time on it I think Steve Stricker and Matt Kuchar would be the two I'd throw money at if I had to right now with no time to research.

-  Wow.  This got out of hand quickly.  Like Game 2 but in the Spurs favor.  It's a 31 point lead.  Gary Neal and Danny Green have combined for 51 points so far.  Green by himself has outscored Duncan+Ginobilli+Parker.  Crazy game.  But crazy awesome.

MLB Draft Stuff

The Major League Baseball first year player draft begins tomorrow and runs through Saturday.  This year the Twins have the #4 pick.  They don't have any sandwich picks or anything, so their next pick is at #43 in the 2nd round.  Let's take a look at some players of note this year.


Top Players in the Draft

Johnathan Gray, RHP - Oklahoma (JR)

As a high school player, Gray could hit 93mph on the radar gun.  As a college junior he now hits 95-100 and mixes in a devastating high 80s slider.  He could go #1 to the Astros.  Gray is 6'4", 239, and has a bit of a chub-face, which scares me.  Also he tested postive for the amphetamine Adderall, so there are some red flags.  However, he has a sweet biceps tattoo that probably gives him 2-3mph on the heater.

Mark Appel, RHP - Stanford (SR)

Appel (6'5", 215) was drafted 8th last year by the Pirates before he decided to return to Stanford for his senior year.  The Pirates took their money and went home.  They pick #9 as well as #15 thanks to the Boras-snub.  Appel apparently has 3 plus pitches and is very near major league ready.  If he somehow dropped to #4 and the Twins shot the lock off the wallet, he would be a great pick because of his readiness.  Since his is a senior now, he has less leverage than he did last year.  It wouldn't be shocking to see the Cubs select either Gray or Appel at #2 depending on what Houston does.

Kohl Stewart, RHP - St Pius X HS (Texas)

Kohl Stewart has signed on to play football at Texas A&M, but he's also a hard-throwing right handed pitcher.  One of the top college quarterback prospects can also hit mid to high 90s on the gun.  He is expected to sign with a big league club though and forego SEC football for the straight cash of the MLB.  This could be the Twins target according to some things I've read.  Keith Law on Stewart: "He has four legitimate pitches with an athletic, strong build and the potential for two grade-70s offerings on the 20-80 scouting scale. His fastball is consistently 92-94, touching 97, with good downhill plane and some boring life to his arm side. He doesn't command the pitch yet or throw it for enough strikes, which may be inexperience of a function of the delivery. His slider is his best pitch, 85-88 with hard, late break down and away from right-handed hitters, although he doesn't command it as well as he does his hard 79-82 mph curveball. He also has a a straight change at 83-85 with solid arm speed but little action."  If the Twins don't grab him at #4, don't be surprised if the Indians take him 5th.

Kris Bryant, 3B/OF - San Diego (JR)

The Louisville Slugger National Player of the year, Kris Bryant (6'5", 215) plays 3B now, but is unlikely to stay there.  A move to a corner OF spot is probable.  He has major power and his coach calls him a combination of Troy Glaus, Pat Burrell and Jayson Werth.  Keith Law says he has just average bat speed and that while he can hit the fastball really well, he wonders what affect pro changeups and sliders will have.  The guy hit 31 homers in 62 games this year while walking 66 times and only striking out 44 times.  (329/493/820). 

Austin Meadows, OF - Grayson HS (Georgia)

Meadows is a 6'3", 200lb toolsy Clemson commit.  Law says he has a quick bat and can run and has projectable power as he "fills out".  This is one of those high upside picks that a team would have to wait for several years as he progresses through the minors. 

Trey Ball, OF/LHP - New Castle HS (Indiana)

Trey Ball (6'6", 180) is a lanky pitcher that throws up to 94mph.  However, he's also a decent outfielder and could be draft as a position player.  Unlike Byron Buxton, it is more likely that Ball is drafted for his lefty arm.  I mean, look at that lanky effer in that pic.





Players That Are Related to MLBers:

Cavan Biggio - Son of Craig, who apparently sucks at naming children.  He can hit, but doesn't have much of a position yet and may be just outside of the first round.  (Houston picks #40...)  Keith Law says he's slow and kind of sucks at second and doesn't project enough to be a first baseman.

Kacy Clemens - Kacy is the son of Roger and is a RHP/1B prospect that has a plus power bat from the left side.  As a pitcher his generally in the high 80s, so he is likely to honor his commitment to Texas rather than head directly to the pros.

Hunter Harvey - Son of former closer Bryan is a likely first round pick.  He's out of Bandys HS (NC) and has a low 90s heater.  At 6'3" and just 175, there's room to grow.

Jacob Heyward - Younger brother of Jason is a prep star that is committed to Miami. 

Torii Hunter Jr - T-HUNT^2!  Toolsy outfielder that has been hurt since January.  TorriTwo is headed to Notre Dame to play WR, so it's unlikely he signs with someone.

Josh Pettitte - Andy's son is a Baylor commit that's slightly smaller than his old man and

Manny Ramirez Jr. - MANRAM^2!  The prep player is already a beast at 6'4", 215lbs.  He has big power and great bat speed, but is projected as a first baseman. 

Jordan Sheffield - The nephew of Gary, and not in a Snoop Dogg kind of way.  The RHP was considered a top prep option, but has recently undergone Tommy John, so unless he gets some decent cash, he'll likely head to Vandy and pitch starting next spring.

Mike Yastrzemski - Grandson of Carl was a four year guy at Vanderbilt.  He's kind of a spray hitting outfielder that doesn't project much power and just an ok outfielder.  Will the Red Sox throw him a bone?


Minnesota Connections:

Tom Windle LHP - Windle is #60 on Keith Law's top 100 draft prospects.  The 6'4", 215lb lefty has a low 90s fastball, a low 80s slider and a low 80s change.  I've read a few outlooks on him and he's getting the "not a lot of upside" and "mid rotation" treatment.  He did really well in the Cape Cod league and he may see his name called in the second round.

DJ Snelten, LHP - Snelten (6'7", 230) isn't thought of as highly as Windle, but he has a good fastball that can reach the mid 90s and s change-up.  His strikeout and walk numbers weren't overly impressive at the U of M, but hey, he's big and left handed!

Ryan Boldt, OF - Red Wing high-schooler is committed to Nebraska, but is in Baseball America's top 250 and may sign if drafted.  He has a knee issue that might make teams pause.  He's got the speed to be in center field. 

Max Knutson, LHP - Mounds View prep star is also headed to Nebraska provided he doesn't get an MLB offer that suits him. 

Logan Shore, RHP - Coon Rapids HS pitcher throws 88-89 with a change around 80mph.  He's signed to play for the University of Florida next season.  He throws 92mph and has a developing slider and change. 

Fun with Nerd Stats

I was doing some work in Excel on my data and formulas for player props, and came across some interesting stats that I found interesting.  So look:

-  B.J. Upton is having an absolutely terrible year, and a big reason is pop-ups.  Upton has a major league worst 30.2% in-field fly ball rate with 13 pop-ups in 192 plate appearances, a big reason why his BABIP is so low at just .208.  Upton is also striking out 33.9% of the time, which means 64.1% of his plate appearances end with him having zero chance of getting on base.  So if every Upton ground ball and fly ball managed to find a hole and he hit 1.000 on those, he'd still only be hitting .360.  That's preposterous.  Also from a Twins' perspective Josh Willingham's pop-up rate of 22.4% and K rate of 26.4% are a pretty bad combo too.  He needs to get it together so they can trade him this summer for something halfway decent.

-   There are 8 players who have yet to pop out this year, and they range from slap hitters (Ruben Tejada, Jose Altuve, Howie Kendrick), awesome hitters (Joey Votto, Mike Trout), really shocking guys who you'd think popped out every five minutes (Ryan Howard), guys I've never heard of (Jason Castro), and asians (Shin-Soo Choo). 

-  The following players have more walks than strikeouts so far this year:  Dustin Pedroia, Coco Crisp, Marco Scutaro, and Norichika Aoki.  That is an epically annoying group of players.

-  Ervin Santana (13/13), Dan Haren (12/9), and Kevin Correia (13/12) are all contenders for the Bronson Arroyo Memorial Club of pitchers who give up more homers than walks in a season, but if anyone is a lock to join the group it's got to be Bartolo Colon with 7 homers and 4 walks allowed so far.  It seems he's decided to absolutely not walk anybody this year, and if history holds and he makes around 30 starts he should give up around 20 homers.  At his current walk rate he'll come in under that, but who knows if it will hold?  He's never walked this few batters in his career, but it seems to be working for him so far (3.33 ERA, 3.34 FIP).  Maybe even crazier?  He's only had a single 3-0 count this entire season.

-  Fastest average fastball velocity for any starter is Stephen Strasburg at 95.4 mph with the slowest 81.1 mph by R.A. Dicky (slowest non-gimmick pitcher FB is Barry Zito at 83.4).  Fastest average fastball period goes to Detroit's Bruce Rondon at 99.3 mph (Aroldis Chapman is fourth at 97.1).  Glen Perkins throws the fastest heater of any Twin at 94.5 mph, with the team's hardest throwing starter, Mike Pelfrey, averages 91.8 mph and every single thing I wrote in that last sentence is totally gross.

-  More Twins stuff:

• Best Fastball (by results/value):  Perkins
• Worst Fastball:  Pelfrey
• Best Curve: Ryan Pressly
• Worst Curve: Scott Diamond
• Best Slider: Pressly
• Worst Slider: Perkins
• Best Change-Up: Jared Burton
• Worst Change: Pedro Hernandez
• Casey Fien and Josh Roenicke also have very good cutters, while Vance Worley has one that is completely god awful
• Best Fastball Hitter: Joe Mauer (and it's not even close - he crushes fastballs - runnerup: Eduardo Escobar)
• Best Curveball Hitter:  Mauer (Trevor Plouffe)
• Best Slider Hitter: Josh Willingham (Plouffe)
• Best Change-Up Hitter: Mauer (Oswaldo Arcia)
• Most Aggressive Hitter: Wilkin Ramirez (runner up: Arcia)
• Best Eye:  Brian Dozier (Jamey Carroll)
• Best Baserunner:  Pedro Florimon (Aaron Hicks)
• Worst Baserunner: Plouffe (Chris Parmelee)
• Best Fielder: Justin Morneau (Florimon)
• Worst Fielder: Plouffe (Hicks - advanced stats have his range as terrible, advanced fielding stats still suck)

- Back to Majors in general, Pablo Sandoval, Adam Jones, and Alfonso Soriano are known hackers so it shouldn't be a surprise they're the most aggressive in the majors this year, while Marco Scutaro, Nate McLouth, and Coco Crisp win the most patient award (Hicks is fourth among those who qualify for the batting title).

-  Shin-Soo Choo completely crushes fastballs, Carlos Gomez (Snacks -> hi) kills the curve, while Chris Davis smokes sliders (Willingham is second here) and Evan Longoria owns the change-up (followed by Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki which is notable because all three are on $nake and I's fantasy team).  On the flip side, fastballs confuse Ruben Tejada, John Buck is owned by the curve, Nelson Cruz can't hit a slider, and Matt Wieters is always fooled by a change.

-  Lastly, the best heater in the bigs goes to Cliff Lee (Clayton Kershaw runner-up), best curve to Adam Wainwright (A.J. Burnett) - neither a big surprise, best slider belongs to Yu Darvish (Justin Masterson), best change to Marco Estrada (Cole Hamels), best cutter to Travis Wood (Clay Buchholz), and best splitter (people still throw this?) to Hisashi Iwakuma (Ryan Dempster) and no, not many people throw it.

Canada was awesome, dude.

-  The fishing trip was a rousing success.  Tell me how this sounds to you:  Five full days of fishing in 60 degree sunny weather catching walleye after walleye with an occasional Northern Jackfish thrown in.  I ended up catching 235 Walleye and 50 Jacks, which is pretty incredible, and mostly with decent size.  I topped out with a 35 inch Pike and 25 inch Walleye, while Bear won the week with a 30 inch Walleye and a 43 inch Jack and finished at the top of the weekly Yahtzee standings as well.   I know Bogart grabbed a 26 Walleye (and won the end of the week Yahtzee tournament) and Dawger had a 37 Pike and was at the helm when I got my two biggest fish so it's not like anybody got shut out.  Many beers were drank, much vodka was consumed, many fish were caught, one night was particularly hilarious, and overall it was just an outstanding trip.  Basically the trip of a lifetime, and along with my trip to Italy with the wife and baseball trip out east with my dad and bro I've had 3 of them now.  Pretty lucky dude.

Having been out of both internet and cell service areas for over a week, I've missed a lot.  So I'll try to catch up.

- It appears the Twins have done well since I've been gone, winning six of their last seven, which is good.  Even though Seattle is shitty and Milwaukee is even shittier it still means something that they're beating these shitty teams instead of losing like they were doing for a while.  Instead of trying to go over these games, which would be impossible, I want to make two Twins' related points:

1.  Aaron Hicks has hit .286 (8/28) in these seven games, and has now raised his season average all the way up to .173 (and yes, all the way is supposed to be sarcastic).  His walks are way down compared to earlier in the season (to be fair, his strikeouts are too), but I would guess that's a result of pitchers forcing him to hit and refusing to walk him until he proves he can punish them if they groove it.  His 3-4 day with 2 XBH today will certainly help.  His season line now stands at .173/.246/.335, which is really pretty awful, but there are plenty of other underachievers, and veterans at that, who are putting up similar numbers at this early stage.  B.J. Upton (.153/.236/.252), Jason Heyward (.142/.283/.236), Dustin Ackley (.205/.266/.250), Josh Reddick (.170/.280/.270), and Ben Revere (.251/.293/.287) are all notable names, for one reason or another, who are performing on a similar level.  So what I'm saying is, if you've given up on Hicks already you're an idiot.  And you probably are anyway and you probably like Big Bang Theory, Olive Garden, and Nickelback.

2.  Glen Perkins is having a really good year out of the pen.  His two blown saves were gross and he's had a couple poor outings in non-save situations, but overall an ERA of 3.05 (with a FIP of 2.31 which is really, really good) with 14+ Ks per nine and 5 Ks per walk is really, really effing good.  I'm hopeful the Twins end up trading him for something good at the deadline because saves are overvalued like a mofo, but that's not what I found fascinating looking at stuff today.  What's fascinating is the Perkins, in his 20 innings this year he has more Ks than Kevin Correia in his 70, Mike Pelfrey in 50, or Vance Worley in 48.  Also Scott Diamond in his 50, and any other pitcher on the team.  Yes, Glen Perkins leads the Twins in strikeouts.  And you want to know who is third?  Jared Burton.  If it weren't so sad it would be hilarious.  And sad.

-  Man oh man I think the Royals might be cursed or haunted or something.  Mike Moustakas was a top 10 prospect in all of baseball a couple of years ago, and this year his stats resemble Aaron Hicks but with no speed and less power coming from a more premium offensive position.  Eric Hosmer was the #5 prospect at one point and he's hitting on a level equal to Eduardo Escobar, but with slightly less power which is awful enough but as a 1B it's just horrendous.  And that's hardly the only issues they've had.  Most of their top pitching prospects have either gotten hurt or flamed out, and the ones who have looked ok are either stuck in the bullpen or got traded (and don't forget, Luke Hochevar was the #1 overall pick in 2006 and after seven years is finally having his first decent year - but as a middle reliever).  It's yet another example of "potential" not translating to actual performance, and maybe the most dramatic one outside of this year's Lakers.

-  Last year I said that shutting down Stephen Strasburg after 159 innings in a season when you have legitimate World Series hopes was a stupid, stupid move.   Throwing away a tangible benefit (having one of the best pitchers in baseball on your side in the playoffs) for some unprovable, perhaps even hypothetical future benefit (Strasburg's future health) rarely works out, and now he ended up leaving his start last Friday after just two innings with an oblique strain.  I'm not sure how bad that actually is or if he'll miss any games, but it should help serve as a warning to other teams in similar situations in the future.  Play your best when that window is open, because nobody knows how quickly it could shut - just ask the OKC Thunder.

-  This was pretty neat:


-  After being a pretty big backer of the Pitino hire and the system he's going to be bringing to the Gophers, as time has passed and I've been looking at things more rationally I'm getting more nervous that next year may be a disaster.  Let's assume for a minute that Pitino is able to force other teams into a more up-and-down type game than is generally played in the Big 10 (a pretty big assumption, granted, that may actually be the key next year anyway).  A more uptempo game results in more possessions, and traditionally the more possessions in a game the more likely the more talented team will in - is that really the position the Gophers want to put themselves in next year?  With that mish-mash of a front court?  Pitino's goal is something that has rarely been done successfully in the Big 10 with only Ohio State in 2011 finishing above .500 in conference with one of the fastest paced teams (top 100) in the country going back to 2005.  That team had elite talent, this Minnesota team doesn't and really has only two players you could call above average.  My confidence is wavering, and wavering significantly.  I'm now terrified for next year.

And speaking of that mish mash of a front court, the Gophers signed on Drake transfer Joey King, formerly of East View, giving them a Minnesota presence and another bigger body if he gets the waiver he's looking for to make him eligible next year (the ole "move home because of a family situation" waiver).  There are a lot of conflicting opinions on King.  On the one hand, he was on the MVC All-Freshman team last year after averaging 7 pts and 3 rebs per game, which is decent for freshman and the MVC was a quality league last year (and he played some of his best ball against the best - 17 vs. Creighton, 15 vs. Wichita, and 21 vs. Xavier).  The bad news is despite being 6-9 he was just a slightly better rebounder than Joe Coleman (RIP) last season, shot more twos than threes, and only took 20% of his shots at the rim last year which was less than Julian Welch last year.

Basically King is, potentially, a good stretch 4 which is what Pitino is looking for.  However, along with Osenieks and Buggs that gives them three of those with only one true post player, meaning that Mo Walker may very well end up being the key to the season.  Read that again.  Think about it.  Digest it for a minute.  How does that feel?  I feel yucky.

-  Oh yeah, Epic was a pretty sweet kids movie.  You should go see it and stuff.

Twins Youth Movement Update

Well, the Twins are who we thought they were.  They're clearly lacking in the pitching department, but the offense that "isn't a problem" has kind of been a problem too.

Rather than go over how much everyone sucks in the majors, let's look at some of the players that make up one of the deeper groups of prospects in major league baseball.

Aaron Hicks

No longer on prospect lists since he made the squad, but I still want to point out a couple of things here.  He continues to show flashes of power and is obviously good in the field.  Striking out 1/3 of the time is awful though.  And he's struck out in 7 of his last 20 ABs, so it's not like that ratio is decreasing.  What is interesting though is that Hicks was a natural right handed hitter that has turned switch-hitter; which isn't all that unusual, but he's hitting much better from the right side than the left.  (.257 vs .138)  He's also hitting better without the pressure of leading off (.258) and a has a nice amount of extra base hits (12).  It's still early and he dug himself a massive hole to get out of so I'd give him more time.  In fact, there's really no problem with giving him the rest of the year since we all know it's a lost cause.  If those splits don't improve though, I wouldn't mind if they considered making him a full time right handed hitter. 


Let's look at players in the minors that are on Jesse Siegel and Nick Shlain's top 200 list. 

#6 Byron Buxton, CF

We knew Buxton was a tools monster when he was drafted.  What we're coming to learn is that he may be in the majors much sooner than initially expected.  He showed power and speed in rookie ball in 2012, but hit just .216 in the Gulf Coast league after hitting .286 at Elizabethton.  In 2013, Buxton is a house on fire.  He's hitting 332/436/556 with 7 homers (23 xbhs) in 187 ABs.  He has a somewhat high K rate at 17.1%, but he has an incredible 15.4% walk rate.  He's also stolen 23 bases.  He's also an elite type defender in the OF with great speed and that mid-90s fastball arm.

Check out this recent quote from former scout Bernie Pleskoff:

Remember the name. Write it down. He's only in Low-A now. He'll fly through the system, even if the Twins want to avoid rushing him. He has a lethal combination of power and speed. He has to cut down on strikeouts to be even more effective, but the man can play. He already has seven home runs and 37 RBI to complement his .316 batting average at Cedar Rapids. He is my third highest ranked outfield prospect behind only Taveras and Yelich.

Keith Law has him #2 overall behind just Taveras. "80 speed on the 20-80 scouting scale, a very quick bat, a plus arm, the potential for plus-plus defense in center -- is accompanied by more present baseball skill than I realized last spring. He's already 19, so a late-season promotion to high-A wouldn't be too aggressive if he continues to rake."

So, doing the way premature math, if he goes to high A ball this year and does well, we could see him in AA next year at 20 years old.  Anything can happen from there.  Here he is mashing a walk off grand slam:

#7 Miguel Sano, 3B

Sano is in High-A Fort Myers after spending all of last season in Low-A.  Still, he's the youngest player in the Florida State league and is absolutely crushing it.  Did you know Doug Mientkiewicz is managing the Fort Myers team?  Me either until just right now.  He has this to say about Sano, "I don't get the final word, but I think he is ready for Double-A."  Miguel is hitting 343/437/657 with 13 homers (29 xbhs) in 181 ABs. He strikes out a tad more than 25% of the time, but he's showing huge power, so that might be acceptable.  He also walks at a decent rate of 11.7%. 

The biggest thing that could slow down Sano's rocketship to the majors is his defense.  He's currently at 3B still although many have projected him to 1B or a corner OF spot eventually.  He made 42 errors last season in 125 games at third, and so far this year he's made 11 errors in 49 games.   So, he's shown some improvement at least, but he's certainly not major league ready there.

Fast forward to about 1:18 to watch Sano go yahtzee off of something called Jacob Partridge here:

 

#50 Kyle Gibson, SP

Unless Kyle Gibson injures his shoulder killing and burying a hooker in Rochester, we'll be seing him pitch for the Twins in June.  Waiting until mid-June earns the Twins another year of control by going past the super two deadline.  You can't blame the Twins for this unless you thought they just needed one more arm back when they were a .500 team. 



Gibson is kind of a "flat-brimmer", but I think he pulls it off.

Gibson, 25, is just 4-5 so far this year, but he's sporting a 2.82 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in 60.2 innings.  He's also only allowed 2 homeruns and just 48 hits.  And now I'm reading that he got beat up a little in today's start so add 6 runs in 6 innings today to those stats.  

#51 Eddie Rosario, 2B

Rosario is with our guy Sano in High-A ball and continues to hit.  In 2012 he moved from CF to 2B and did well.  This year he's only played 2B and is playing great defensively with just 3 errors in 41 games.  Eddie is hitting 324/365/503 with 4 homers (19 xbhs) in 173 at bats.  This is a slight improvement across the board compared to last year.  His walk rate is low at 6.3%, but he also has a pretty low K rate of 14.6%. 

#57 Alex Meyer, SP

The 6'9" Meyer was acquired in the Denard Span and is playing AA ball in New Brighton.  At 23, he's just two years removed from pitching for Kentucky in college.  He's shown some big time strikeout potential with 63 Ks in 54.2 innings pitched.  He has a mid-90s fastball and a mid 80s slider.  He's still pretty wild, with 4.15 BB/9; that will need to improve for him to take the next step.  This is also the main reason he has a 1.40 WHIP.

#86 Jose Berrios, SP

Jose Berrios was taken 32nd overall last year and pitched 30 innings in rookie ball and struck out basically everyone (49).  He's had 6 starts now in Low-A Cedar Rapids (Team Buxton) and is doing well.  He's thrown 33.1 innings, struck out 40 and walked just 6.  He also hasn't allowed a homer.  He has a 2.70 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. 

He's not super big at 6', 190lbs, so you have to wonder if he can remain a starter throughout the minors.  He has a good fastball that can hit the mid-90s.

#94 Trevor May, SP

Trevor May, like Meyer is also 23, but he came to pro ball right out of high school.  This means we can look at progression and trends as he moves through the ranks.  The big thing that sticks out for May is the walk rate; and not in a good way.  Throughout his minor league it's been around 5 BB/9 and it's right there so far this season as well (4.71).  Despite the free passes, he has a 3.88 ERA and is 4-2 at New Brighton.  

#149 Max Kepler, OF

Poor Max is broken.  He has a left elbow injury that hasn't allowed him to start his 2013.  We like him because he's German, though.

#179 Travis Harrison, 3B

Travis was draft in 2011 (50th overall) and is in his second minor league season.  The 20 year old has 8 homers (23 xbh) in 171 at bats for Low-A Cedar Rapids and has a 275/351/503 line.  In 59 games at 3B in 2012 he commited 24 errors.  So far this year he has 10 errors in 45 games at the hot corner. 

#212 Josmil Pinto, C

Wait, there's more?  Apparently their list of 200 goes beyond 200, so here we are.  24 year old Pinto is in AA and is hitting 337/430/537.  In related news, Drew Butera once hit .337 in a wiffle ball league.  He's also thrown out 32% of would be base-stealer-guys. 

So, no playoffs for the Twins this year, but maybe look for these minor league clubs to make the post-season.  Slap it high?