The Gophers are two games in, and I have very little to say since there is still so much unknown about this team. They seem like they play pretty decent defense, but they can't rebound at all. The pass the ball well and Carlos Morris seems like the only ball stopper, but they shoot way too many threes for a team that hasn't shown much of an ability to make them. As people always like to say, we won't really know about this team until they play a real opponent. Even if this event isn't exactly loaded with top tier teams, there's enough here that we should, indeed, know quite a bit more about this team afterwards.
First up is Temple on Thursday. The Owls have only played one game this year and they got their doors blown off by the Tar Heels, but since the Gophers have a wee bit less fire power than Carolina who knows what that means. Temple was maybe an NCAA snub last season, but they also lost two of their top three guys from last season so this is probably a decent test for our Gophers here.
Generally Fran Dunphy's teams vary their statistical profile based on personnel, which means he's a good coach, but they almost always have two things in common - tough defense, and they don't turn the ball over. Since we don't really know what we have in the Gophers the tough defense will be a good test, but I'd feel better if they weren't playing such a traditionally disciplined team. Overall, given the Owls have a decent team but not a good one, this game should tell us a ton about the Gophers this year.
Which is good, because the second game won't tell us anything, either way. If the Gophers lose they will most likely play Missouri State, who is a bottom tier Missouri Valley team that lost to Oral Roberts by 15 in their only game this year. Nothing is a guaranteed win, especially for a team like the Gophers this year, but this would be as close to one as any game they've played this year.
On the other hand if the Gophers win, they'll most likely play Butler, who has holes like any other team but is a tremendously awful matchup for them. Butler will pound the paint, crash the offensive boards, defend like hell, and take care of the basketball. They aren't a great team because they don't really have much size, but that won't matter against the Gophers. Basically if I was engineering a team to beat the Gophers, Butler is really close. If this matchup happens I'll have money on Butler, which is always fun because if you lose your bet that means your team won! (or did well).
The final game would be against Utah, Miami, Mississippi State, or Texas Tech. Utah is legit and is the favorite to win. In fact if they don't most likely they had a really bad tournament, so if the Gophers do end up playing the Utes that would mean good things for the Gophers. Plus it would be fun to watch the Gophers try to find a way to stop seven-foot monster Jakob Poeltl. Miami might not be completely terrible and we'd get to watch that jerk Ja'Quan Newton and see if Tonye Jekiri can get to 20 rebounds. Mississippi State is bad and just lost to Southern which is in the SWAC who should never beat anyone, but Malik Newman is a super stud freshman who would be fun to watch. Texas Tech is still mostly a garbage fire and it would suck to play them because the whole Gophers vs. Tubby narrative would drive me insane.
So there you go. Should be pretty fun.
Showing posts with label Utah. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Utah. Show all posts
Tuesday, November 17, 2015
Thursday, November 5, 2015
Preseason Top 25 - Reactions
Hey the Preseason Top 25 polls just came out. You know what that means, time to write about how bad all these teams suck. I'm taking a look at the AP poll instead of the Coaches poll because I chose it at random. Spoiler alert: The Gophers aren't in here.
1. NORTH CAROLINA. They only lose J.P. Tokoto who entered the NBA Draft for some reason but that's fine because I think he mostly made people mad at his shooting. Marcus Paige is back and he's really good when he's not being terrible. They had zero outside shooting other than him last year, and unless one of the freshman can shoot (one supposedly can) or somebody else learned how to hit a 3-pointer in the offseason this is not the best team in basketball. Also I just read Paige is out for 3-4 weeks with an injury so maybe that will lead to somebody else being good. SPOILER: nope.
2. KENTUCKY. Hell I don't know.
3. MARYLAND. It's hard to wrap my head around Maryland being this high, but I can't argue with it. They were a 4 seed in the tournament last year and even though they didn't make it out of the weekend they were still a solid team. Melo Trimble came back and might be the best player in the conference, they added two big time transfers, and got a late commitment from Diamond Stone who is supposed to be awesome despite the ridiculous name and fills their only real hole. Still, three seems really freaking high.
4. KANSAS. Want to hear something that will blow your mind? Perry Ellis is back for another year. Even so, these guys are my pick for title winner. Ellis sucks but he's not completely useless, and even if he is Kansas has everybody back (except Kelly Oubre who was meh anyway) and they're adding two McDonald's All Americans who are both forwards. This team is deep as all hell, all they need is someone to make the leap. With so many above average players in both ability and pedigree you'd think somebody's going to do it, and if two or more do these guys will be really, really good. Bet on them. Do it. Go do it. They're like 10-1. Do it.
5. DUKE. Uh, you guys know they lost Tyus, Okafor, and Justice Winslow, right? This is all because Grayson Allen, who makes J.J. Redick look downright lovable, had that good stretch in the National Championship game, isn't it? Does he really seem like the kind of player who can carry a team for a while season. NOT BLOODY LIKELY. Good luck with him and one million freshmen. Oh, right, they got a transfer from Rice coming in too. Yes, Rice. The college. If you read any preview of Duke this year they call out a transfer from Rice as a huge positive. I am currently making a dismissive wanking motion.
6. VIRGINIA. Hoops nerds like to tell you that if you think Virginia basketball is boring, you don't really understand basketball. Well I understand basketball and I know what the pack line defense is and all that and I'm telling you - Virginia basketball is freaking boring as all hell. And basically the whole team is back again to be boring and annoying and get handjobs from announcers. Ugh. Stop already.
7. IOWA STATE. If you asked me to guess where Iowa State was rated I would have said like I don't know, maybe mid-20s or something so this is a bit of a surprise. But I guess Georges Niang is back which seems impossible and possibly illegal, and, you're not going to believe this, but the Cyclones get a couple of big deal transfers from other programs. Add that to almost the whole team being back and I guess I see why they're this high. They should be really fun and pretty good until one of their players gets suspended.
8. OKLAHOMA. The opposite of Virginia, these guys are fun as hell to watch and since Buddy Hield, who is basically a lock to lead the Big 12 in scoring, is back they probably will be again. They also ranked 8th in defensive points per possession, so it is actually possible to play fast, fun, and good defense all at the same time. Take notes, Cavaliers. Also, this is way too high for these guys.
9. GONZAGA. Lots of people say stuff like man Gonzaga is overrated, they stomp the WCC, get all this Final Four type buzz, and then flame out. Last year they finally made the Elite 8, which is definitely an accomplishment, but also just the second time they've gotten that far, the last coming in 1999. So I don't know that they've proved that they're anything more than a small conference bully. They've got a rock solid front court, but lose their entire back court so things could be rough early. This section was extremely boring.
10. WICHITA STATE. They have Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet back. That right there is enough to win the Missouri Valley. No really, you take those two and Greg Marshall and you could roll out of their with three toddlers and the Shockers would roll. Unfortunately it is both unsafe and illegal to play with toddlers so Wichita State will use real players to complement those two. I don't really feel like looking up who any of those players are, but since Wichita has been good for so long at this point I'm guessing they're probably pretty good.
11. VILLANOVA. God that sucked when these guys got bounced last year, and not just because they were my non-Kentucky pick to win. They were so freaking good. Then a dopey NC State team knocks them off. I suppose I shouldn't be surprised, that's kind of Villanova's thing. Also their thing: guards. And they have a bunch of them again. So expect the Wildcats to shoot a ton of three pointers, own the Big East, grab a high seed, and flame out early. It's what they do. Lesson learned.
12. ARIZONA. Stanley Johnson, T.J. McConnell, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, and Brandon Ashley are all gone. That is a lot of people to be gone. However Arizona is Arizona, and it must be nice to be Arizona, because they get a star transfer from Boston College and picked up one hell of a recruiting class, including stealing Allonzo Trier from the Gophers. Also, they still have Kaleb Tarczewski and he is awesome and looks like he would fight you. And you would die.
13. MICHIGAN STATE. Another team with a couple of big losses which catches a break with a big time transfer, ready to step right in. For Sparty it's Eron Harris who only scored over 17 points per game in his last season at West Virginia, no big whoop. I'm really fascinated by Lourawls Nairn (remember him?) here. He only took 8.5% of the team's shots when he was on the floor. The lowest Gopher with any real minutes played was Bakary Konate at 11.1%, which is actually way higher than Nairn. I only found two other Big Ten players under 10% last year (Jaylon Tate of Illinois and Jeremiah Kreisberg of Northwestern) but both played far fewer minutes than Nairn. So like, is that his thing? What does he do if nobody guards him? He's the anti-chucker, which in a way, is as fun as a real chucker. I love watching how teams guard Rajon Rondo - they don't. I hope that's what happens with Nairn.
14. CAL. This team could be like whoa. I bet them at 60-1 to win the whole thing this summer, and I still like them now down all the way at 20-1. They have a ton back from last year's team, not a great year, admittedly, and add two Top 10 recruits. Yes, that's TWO top 10 recruits. If the name on the jersey was Duke instead of Cal this would be a Top 5 team. Plus, I like Cuonzo Martin as a coach. This is my favorite sleeper this year.
15. INDIANA. Oh come on! Do we not play defense any more in basketball, because if this is offense only I would say the Hoosiers are too low, but overall? No chance. It's the same team. The only difference is they got some stud recruit center, but can one player suddenly take a swiss cheese defense and make it good? Or even passable? No. Maybe Antoine Broxsie back in the day, but nobody can make Yogi Ferrell look good on defense. Should score a lot of points though. Gopher/Hoosier games should be in the 160s.
16. UTAH. I know they have at least one, and maybe two, big giant tall guys, and that's generally a good start when it comes to basketsball. Ok I decided to check and they only have one, but he's really good you guys! His name is Jakob Poetl and he's a possible lottery pick who held Jahlil Okafor to 6 points and 4 turnovers in March. He can score, rebound, and block shots and now that Delon Wright is gone he should be the offenses focal point. Should be fun. No idea about all these other guys.
17. WISCONSIN. Oh come on! You're kidding me. Look, I love Nigel Hayes, I love him as much as I could ever love a Badger. I think he's most likely a more skilled Noah Vonleh and I loved Noah Vonleh and thanked Jehova every day that Tom Crean was such a terrible coach. But the Badgers are basically Hayes, Bronson Koenig who is whatever fine, and then nobody else. I know people say it's stupid to bet against the Badgers and Bo Ryan, but people like blood sausage too. People are morons. Badgers suck this year.
18. VANDERBILT. Here's another team I like, although I can also see them sucking. On paper it looks good - a potential lottery pick at center (Damian Jones) surrounded by shooters (Riley Lachance (remember him) and Wade Baldwin (him too) among others, and a team that really gelled as the season went on with most of the team back. Vandy started out 1-7 in SEC play, but closed out 8-2 and looked really good, so yeah, on paper this looks good. In reality, it's Vanderbilt so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
19. NOTRE DAME. Jerian Grant is gone, which is a fairly huge deal considering the game plan was generally "hey Jerian, go do everything for us." The back-up for that was, hey Pat Connaughton, you go do stuff instead but oops, he gone. Zach Auguste is a super stud, I'll give you that, and he's probably going to be better than Noah Vonleh, but somebody has to get him the ball. In summation, these guys suck.
20. UCONN. They have Amida Brimah who I love because he blocks like, every shot ever taken, and their transfer train is rolling, picking up Sterling Gibbs (who is kind of a dick) from Seton Hall to go with Rodney Purvis whom they stole from NC State last year or maybe the year before. Actually looking at this roster I've heard of like, everybody which seems goodish. How the hell is Omar Calhoun still in college basketball? That's insane. Also, I probably watch too much basketball.
21. LSU. One of my favorite sleepers this year. Tons of guard play back and they're bringing in the #1 recruit in the country and another big deal new guy too who just got eligible. As far as negatives go, I have a short list of what I call "dumb teams to never ever bet on" who are always dumb and do stupid stuff and lose when they shouldn't because they are dumb every year no matter what. LSU is on that list.
22. BAYLOR. Baylor still? I figured they'd drop off the face of the map with recruiting violations or something by now, but here we are. The front court has a monster in Rico Gathers who is basically a bigger Montrezl Harrell (yes bigger) without the jump shot, but their entire back court is gone. Oh what's that? A really young back court coached by Scott Drew? I smell some early season anti-Baylor wagers.
23. PURDUE. Another team I like, mainly because facing them is like going against a bunch of gigantic monsters from a Goosebumps book. A.J. Hammons is seven feet tall, 261 lbs., Isaac Haas is 7-2, 297 lbs., and incoming freshman Caleb Swanigan is 6-9, 260 lbs.. It would be pretty sweet if they figured out a way to play all three at the same time. I mean, it wouldn't make a lick of sense, but it would be pretty sweet. Anyway, Purdue plays pretty good defense, and it's probably going to be even better next season. They also can't shoot at all. So there are going to be some ugly, ugly games.
24. BUTLER. I tried to write about Butler like 4 times. That's probably enough.
25. MICHIGAN. Michigan loses nobody from last year's team, and that's good even though last year's team missed the tournament. That was more because Caris LeVert and Derrick Walton played only 37 combined games than Michigan being an actually crappy team, because I am learning John Beilein is a wizard who doesn't make crappy teams. They're still basically lacking any kind of skilled or capable big man and Zak Irvin is kind of wild out there, but this should be a pretty good team. Probably better than this ranking. Man, if Purdue could trade one of their big dudes for a shooter from Michigan, that would be pretty sweet. College sports needs trading, would be so awesome. Not like they care about the kids anyway, which is ok because neither do I. PLAY GAMES FOR MY AMUSEMENT!!!
1. NORTH CAROLINA. They only lose J.P. Tokoto who entered the NBA Draft for some reason but that's fine because I think he mostly made people mad at his shooting. Marcus Paige is back and he's really good when he's not being terrible. They had zero outside shooting other than him last year, and unless one of the freshman can shoot (one supposedly can) or somebody else learned how to hit a 3-pointer in the offseason this is not the best team in basketball. Also I just read Paige is out for 3-4 weeks with an injury so maybe that will lead to somebody else being good. SPOILER: nope.
2. KENTUCKY. Hell I don't know.
3. MARYLAND. It's hard to wrap my head around Maryland being this high, but I can't argue with it. They were a 4 seed in the tournament last year and even though they didn't make it out of the weekend they were still a solid team. Melo Trimble came back and might be the best player in the conference, they added two big time transfers, and got a late commitment from Diamond Stone who is supposed to be awesome despite the ridiculous name and fills their only real hole. Still, three seems really freaking high.
4. KANSAS. Want to hear something that will blow your mind? Perry Ellis is back for another year. Even so, these guys are my pick for title winner. Ellis sucks but he's not completely useless, and even if he is Kansas has everybody back (except Kelly Oubre who was meh anyway) and they're adding two McDonald's All Americans who are both forwards. This team is deep as all hell, all they need is someone to make the leap. With so many above average players in both ability and pedigree you'd think somebody's going to do it, and if two or more do these guys will be really, really good. Bet on them. Do it. Go do it. They're like 10-1. Do it.
5. DUKE. Uh, you guys know they lost Tyus, Okafor, and Justice Winslow, right? This is all because Grayson Allen, who makes J.J. Redick look downright lovable, had that good stretch in the National Championship game, isn't it? Does he really seem like the kind of player who can carry a team for a while season. NOT BLOODY LIKELY. Good luck with him and one million freshmen. Oh, right, they got a transfer from Rice coming in too. Yes, Rice. The college. If you read any preview of Duke this year they call out a transfer from Rice as a huge positive. I am currently making a dismissive wanking motion.
6. VIRGINIA. Hoops nerds like to tell you that if you think Virginia basketball is boring, you don't really understand basketball. Well I understand basketball and I know what the pack line defense is and all that and I'm telling you - Virginia basketball is freaking boring as all hell. And basically the whole team is back again to be boring and annoying and get handjobs from announcers. Ugh. Stop already.
7. IOWA STATE. If you asked me to guess where Iowa State was rated I would have said like I don't know, maybe mid-20s or something so this is a bit of a surprise. But I guess Georges Niang is back which seems impossible and possibly illegal, and, you're not going to believe this, but the Cyclones get a couple of big deal transfers from other programs. Add that to almost the whole team being back and I guess I see why they're this high. They should be really fun and pretty good until one of their players gets suspended.
8. OKLAHOMA. The opposite of Virginia, these guys are fun as hell to watch and since Buddy Hield, who is basically a lock to lead the Big 12 in scoring, is back they probably will be again. They also ranked 8th in defensive points per possession, so it is actually possible to play fast, fun, and good defense all at the same time. Take notes, Cavaliers. Also, this is way too high for these guys.
9. GONZAGA. Lots of people say stuff like man Gonzaga is overrated, they stomp the WCC, get all this Final Four type buzz, and then flame out. Last year they finally made the Elite 8, which is definitely an accomplishment, but also just the second time they've gotten that far, the last coming in 1999. So I don't know that they've proved that they're anything more than a small conference bully. They've got a rock solid front court, but lose their entire back court so things could be rough early. This section was extremely boring.
10. WICHITA STATE. They have Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet back. That right there is enough to win the Missouri Valley. No really, you take those two and Greg Marshall and you could roll out of their with three toddlers and the Shockers would roll. Unfortunately it is both unsafe and illegal to play with toddlers so Wichita State will use real players to complement those two. I don't really feel like looking up who any of those players are, but since Wichita has been good for so long at this point I'm guessing they're probably pretty good.
11. VILLANOVA. God that sucked when these guys got bounced last year, and not just because they were my non-Kentucky pick to win. They were so freaking good. Then a dopey NC State team knocks them off. I suppose I shouldn't be surprised, that's kind of Villanova's thing. Also their thing: guards. And they have a bunch of them again. So expect the Wildcats to shoot a ton of three pointers, own the Big East, grab a high seed, and flame out early. It's what they do. Lesson learned.
12. ARIZONA. Stanley Johnson, T.J. McConnell, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, and Brandon Ashley are all gone. That is a lot of people to be gone. However Arizona is Arizona, and it must be nice to be Arizona, because they get a star transfer from Boston College and picked up one hell of a recruiting class, including stealing Allonzo Trier from the Gophers. Also, they still have Kaleb Tarczewski and he is awesome and looks like he would fight you. And you would die.
13. MICHIGAN STATE. Another team with a couple of big losses which catches a break with a big time transfer, ready to step right in. For Sparty it's Eron Harris who only scored over 17 points per game in his last season at West Virginia, no big whoop. I'm really fascinated by Lourawls Nairn (remember him?) here. He only took 8.5% of the team's shots when he was on the floor. The lowest Gopher with any real minutes played was Bakary Konate at 11.1%, which is actually way higher than Nairn. I only found two other Big Ten players under 10% last year (Jaylon Tate of Illinois and Jeremiah Kreisberg of Northwestern) but both played far fewer minutes than Nairn. So like, is that his thing? What does he do if nobody guards him? He's the anti-chucker, which in a way, is as fun as a real chucker. I love watching how teams guard Rajon Rondo - they don't. I hope that's what happens with Nairn.
14. CAL. This team could be like whoa. I bet them at 60-1 to win the whole thing this summer, and I still like them now down all the way at 20-1. They have a ton back from last year's team, not a great year, admittedly, and add two Top 10 recruits. Yes, that's TWO top 10 recruits. If the name on the jersey was Duke instead of Cal this would be a Top 5 team. Plus, I like Cuonzo Martin as a coach. This is my favorite sleeper this year.
15. INDIANA. Oh come on! Do we not play defense any more in basketball, because if this is offense only I would say the Hoosiers are too low, but overall? No chance. It's the same team. The only difference is they got some stud recruit center, but can one player suddenly take a swiss cheese defense and make it good? Or even passable? No. Maybe Antoine Broxsie back in the day, but nobody can make Yogi Ferrell look good on defense. Should score a lot of points though. Gopher/Hoosier games should be in the 160s.
16. UTAH. I know they have at least one, and maybe two, big giant tall guys, and that's generally a good start when it comes to basketsball. Ok I decided to check and they only have one, but he's really good you guys! His name is Jakob Poetl and he's a possible lottery pick who held Jahlil Okafor to 6 points and 4 turnovers in March. He can score, rebound, and block shots and now that Delon Wright is gone he should be the offenses focal point. Should be fun. No idea about all these other guys.
17. WISCONSIN. Oh come on! You're kidding me. Look, I love Nigel Hayes, I love him as much as I could ever love a Badger. I think he's most likely a more skilled Noah Vonleh and I loved Noah Vonleh and thanked Jehova every day that Tom Crean was such a terrible coach. But the Badgers are basically Hayes, Bronson Koenig who is whatever fine, and then nobody else. I know people say it's stupid to bet against the Badgers and Bo Ryan, but people like blood sausage too. People are morons. Badgers suck this year.
18. VANDERBILT. Here's another team I like, although I can also see them sucking. On paper it looks good - a potential lottery pick at center (Damian Jones) surrounded by shooters (Riley Lachance (remember him) and Wade Baldwin (him too) among others, and a team that really gelled as the season went on with most of the team back. Vandy started out 1-7 in SEC play, but closed out 8-2 and looked really good, so yeah, on paper this looks good. In reality, it's Vanderbilt so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
19. NOTRE DAME. Jerian Grant is gone, which is a fairly huge deal considering the game plan was generally "hey Jerian, go do everything for us." The back-up for that was, hey Pat Connaughton, you go do stuff instead but oops, he gone. Zach Auguste is a super stud, I'll give you that, and he's probably going to be better than Noah Vonleh, but somebody has to get him the ball. In summation, these guys suck.
20. UCONN. They have Amida Brimah who I love because he blocks like, every shot ever taken, and their transfer train is rolling, picking up Sterling Gibbs (who is kind of a dick) from Seton Hall to go with Rodney Purvis whom they stole from NC State last year or maybe the year before. Actually looking at this roster I've heard of like, everybody which seems goodish. How the hell is Omar Calhoun still in college basketball? That's insane. Also, I probably watch too much basketball.
21. LSU. One of my favorite sleepers this year. Tons of guard play back and they're bringing in the #1 recruit in the country and another big deal new guy too who just got eligible. As far as negatives go, I have a short list of what I call "dumb teams to never ever bet on" who are always dumb and do stupid stuff and lose when they shouldn't because they are dumb every year no matter what. LSU is on that list.
22. BAYLOR. Baylor still? I figured they'd drop off the face of the map with recruiting violations or something by now, but here we are. The front court has a monster in Rico Gathers who is basically a bigger Montrezl Harrell (yes bigger) without the jump shot, but their entire back court is gone. Oh what's that? A really young back court coached by Scott Drew? I smell some early season anti-Baylor wagers.
23. PURDUE. Another team I like, mainly because facing them is like going against a bunch of gigantic monsters from a Goosebumps book. A.J. Hammons is seven feet tall, 261 lbs., Isaac Haas is 7-2, 297 lbs., and incoming freshman Caleb Swanigan is 6-9, 260 lbs.. It would be pretty sweet if they figured out a way to play all three at the same time. I mean, it wouldn't make a lick of sense, but it would be pretty sweet. Anyway, Purdue plays pretty good defense, and it's probably going to be even better next season. They also can't shoot at all. So there are going to be some ugly, ugly games.
24. BUTLER. I tried to write about Butler like 4 times. That's probably enough.
25. MICHIGAN. Michigan loses nobody from last year's team, and that's good even though last year's team missed the tournament. That was more because Caris LeVert and Derrick Walton played only 37 combined games than Michigan being an actually crappy team, because I am learning John Beilein is a wizard who doesn't make crappy teams. They're still basically lacking any kind of skilled or capable big man and Zak Irvin is kind of wild out there, but this should be a pretty good team. Probably better than this ranking. Man, if Purdue could trade one of their big dudes for a shooter from Michigan, that would be pretty sweet. College sports needs trading, would be so awesome. Not like they care about the kids anyway, which is ok because neither do I. PLAY GAMES FOR MY AMUSEMENT!!!
Friday, March 27, 2015
Previewing the Sweet 16 - Friday
Small loss yesterday pretty much because of the 5 unit loss on the Wis/UNC under. I still feel like I read that game right as it was just a 60 possession game so I nailed the pace. Carolina hitting 8 of 13 three point attempts really sunk me. I figured Wisconsin would are UNC to shoot and they'd miss a bunch, but they nailed them so what are you gonna do? Even given that I still had a chance until that stupid UNC foul on the perimeter with less than a minute left took out the possibility of Bucky running the clock down. Whatevs. We move on. Had most of the other stuff nailed. Here's what I'm thinking for Friday.
UCLA vs. Gonzaga. I really, really, really didn't expect UCLA to get here, so I'm at a bit of a loss. Bryce Alford, who was becoming more and more of a chucker as the year went on, has been white hot in the tournament, and after a lucky, grind it out win against SMU (with a questionable call to boot) they looked like an absolute offensive juggernaut against UAB. That might not sound like much, but don't forget the Blazers pretty much completely shut down Iowa State. Is UCLA a lucky team who snuck into the tournament undeservedly, lucked into a first round win, and then decimated a shoddy opponent in round 2? Or are they a team worthy of inclusion who has won two games playing vastly different styles and is now peaking at the right time?
Nothing in these teams' profiles suggests the Bruins have a prayer of stopping Gonzaga. The Bulldogs are a smoothly run offensive operation with plenty of firepower both inside and outside and other than some suspect free throw shooting from their big guys no real weaknesses. UCLA is going to have to score to keep up with them, and the Zags defense is far superior to the Bruins so it won't be easy. They're going to want to try to get down the court as soon as possible with their athletes and try to get moving towards the basket before Gonzaga can get their half court defense set up, but an uptempo game also suits the Bulldogs just fine.
These teams played earlier this year, with Gonzaga coming out ahead 87-74. The Zags absolutely shredded the UCLA defense with the Bruins hanging as close as they did thanks to good 3-point shooting and a bunch of offensive rebounds. I don't really see much of any reason to expect anything wildly different, though without question this is the game I feel I have the shakiest read on.
Bet: Gonzaga -8.5 (1 UNIT), Over 146 (1 UNIT)
UCLA vs. Gonzaga. I really, really, really didn't expect UCLA to get here, so I'm at a bit of a loss. Bryce Alford, who was becoming more and more of a chucker as the year went on, has been white hot in the tournament, and after a lucky, grind it out win against SMU (with a questionable call to boot) they looked like an absolute offensive juggernaut against UAB. That might not sound like much, but don't forget the Blazers pretty much completely shut down Iowa State. Is UCLA a lucky team who snuck into the tournament undeservedly, lucked into a first round win, and then decimated a shoddy opponent in round 2? Or are they a team worthy of inclusion who has won two games playing vastly different styles and is now peaking at the right time?
Nothing in these teams' profiles suggests the Bruins have a prayer of stopping Gonzaga. The Bulldogs are a smoothly run offensive operation with plenty of firepower both inside and outside and other than some suspect free throw shooting from their big guys no real weaknesses. UCLA is going to have to score to keep up with them, and the Zags defense is far superior to the Bruins so it won't be easy. They're going to want to try to get down the court as soon as possible with their athletes and try to get moving towards the basket before Gonzaga can get their half court defense set up, but an uptempo game also suits the Bulldogs just fine.
These teams played earlier this year, with Gonzaga coming out ahead 87-74. The Zags absolutely shredded the UCLA defense with the Bruins hanging as close as they did thanks to good 3-point shooting and a bunch of offensive rebounds. I don't really see much of any reason to expect anything wildly different, though without question this is the game I feel I have the shakiest read on.
Bet: Gonzaga -8.5 (1 UNIT), Over 146 (1 UNIT)
Louisville vs. North Carolina State: I’m such a horrible traitor. For years I've been a huge Rick Pitino fan, which helps to explain some of my enthusiasm at the Gophers’ hiring of his son, and have always backed them to overachieve in the NCAA Tournament. I won a 20-1 future bet three years ago when they won the title and won my NCAA pool the year he won with that awesome Tony Delk Kentucky team and that should have been enough to make me a believer for life, and I thought I was. So why did I pick Louisville to lose to UC-Irvine? Was I enthralled with that giant 7-6 guy? Did I think losing Chris Jones would make a chaotic, and sometimes limited, offensive team even more chaotic? Did I think a poor close to the season made the Cardinals a prime candidate to flame out early? Yes to all of it. I'm horrible. It's Rick Pitino, you dummy.
Of course, we can't discount NC State seeing as they completely dismantled what I thought was a very good Villanova team, not to mention beating a very athletic LSU squad in round 1. Both teams have played tremendous defense in the tournament thus far holding all opponents far under their points per possession average with both putting up an extremely impressive performance versus an elite offensive team (Northern Iowa and Villanova). Both teams do it with a hellacious half court defense, though Louisville holds an edge here because they also excel at causing turnovers whereas NC State never does. Neither team shoots the ball particularly well, so if this turns into a half court game it could end up quite a slogfest.
It will most likely end up that way, at least on the NC State end since the Wolfpack like to take their time and the Louisville defense, despite the press, generally forces teams to take up quite a bit of the shot clock on each possession. Louisville will probably get a few easy baskets in transition thanks to turnovers, though NC State is pretty good at taking care of the ball, and they'll need them since their tendency is take a lot of terrible long twos. I have a feeling this is going to be a very ugly game, or a beautiful game if you like defense. In that case I'd be crazy to pick against Rick Pitino again.
Bet: Louisville -3 (2 UNITS), Under 130 (4 UNITS)
Of course, we can't discount NC State seeing as they completely dismantled what I thought was a very good Villanova team, not to mention beating a very athletic LSU squad in round 1. Both teams have played tremendous defense in the tournament thus far holding all opponents far under their points per possession average with both putting up an extremely impressive performance versus an elite offensive team (Northern Iowa and Villanova). Both teams do it with a hellacious half court defense, though Louisville holds an edge here because they also excel at causing turnovers whereas NC State never does. Neither team shoots the ball particularly well, so if this turns into a half court game it could end up quite a slogfest.
It will most likely end up that way, at least on the NC State end since the Wolfpack like to take their time and the Louisville defense, despite the press, generally forces teams to take up quite a bit of the shot clock on each possession. Louisville will probably get a few easy baskets in transition thanks to turnovers, though NC State is pretty good at taking care of the ball, and they'll need them since their tendency is take a lot of terrible long twos. I have a feeling this is going to be a very ugly game, or a beautiful game if you like defense. In that case I'd be crazy to pick against Rick Pitino again.
Bet: Louisville -3 (2 UNITS), Under 130 (4 UNITS)
Utah vs. Duke. The Blue Devil start and end with Jahlil Okafor, who is the key to everything they do on offense. He has an incredibly polished game in the post, is an adept and smart enough passer to find open shooters when double-teamed, and is a terror on the offensive boards. He struggles against defenders who can match his size, however, and I found a little factoid that he's averaged just 11.6 points per game against teams with a 7-footer they can throw at him. Well guess what? Utah has two in Jakob Poeltl and Dallin Bachynski, and neither are just a big body, both have skill. This bodes well for the Utes. Not that Okafor is all Duke has, especially with Justise Winslow really coming on in the tournament, but having the ability to potentially limit Okafor is a really good start.
Offensively Utah also matches up well against Duke. The Blue Devils excel at perimeter defense giving up very few three pointers and they rarely foul, but over 60% of their points allowed this year came from 2-point shots, not a problem for Utah since they shot 53% from there this year. They were a little more reliant on three pointers than you'd like to see in this spot, but shooting 41% from behind the line on the year can do that to a team. At least you know that even if they get limited looks they should be able to knock them down. Delon Wright is an underrated super star at guard for Utah and he should be able to get into the lane against Duke, which could create some of those open looks.
If this becomes a half court game, I really like the Utes' chances. I think their size on defense and ability to pound the ball in the paint are huge issues for Duke. Even if Duke tries to get up and run, and they will, Utah's offense should be good enough to keep pace.
Bet: Utah +6 (3 UNITS), Over 134 (1 UNIT)
Offensively Utah also matches up well against Duke. The Blue Devils excel at perimeter defense giving up very few three pointers and they rarely foul, but over 60% of their points allowed this year came from 2-point shots, not a problem for Utah since they shot 53% from there this year. They were a little more reliant on three pointers than you'd like to see in this spot, but shooting 41% from behind the line on the year can do that to a team. At least you know that even if they get limited looks they should be able to knock them down. Delon Wright is an underrated super star at guard for Utah and he should be able to get into the lane against Duke, which could create some of those open looks.
If this becomes a half court game, I really like the Utes' chances. I think their size on defense and ability to pound the ball in the paint are huge issues for Duke. Even if Duke tries to get up and run, and they will, Utah's offense should be good enough to keep pace.
Bet: Utah +6 (3 UNITS), Over 134 (1 UNIT)
Michigan State vs. Oklahoma. Two inconsistent teams (MSU lost to Texas Southern and Nebraska this year, Oklahoma lost to Washington and was swept by Kansas State) who seem to be peaking at the right time, this should be a pretty entertaining game. Though both teams play great defense, both also enjoy running with much quicker average possession times on offense than on defense. The Spartans defense generally ends up with them playing games that look to be slower tempo but their opponents average time of possession was 20.1 seconds, the second slowest mark in the country. That’s against plodding big ten teams, not a team like Oklahoma who averages under 17 seconds per possession, one of the quickest in the nation. This reads like a potential track meet to me, so the question is: who wins a track meet?
The Sooners were 6-4 this year in games against the kenpom 100 that hit 70 possessions or more; the Spartans 1-2. Sparty is definitely a deeper squad, but with almost a week of rest at this point in the season that’s pretty meaningless outside of foul trouble and neither team draws many fouls, so that advantage is pretty much irrelevant. Michigan State is a better rebounding team by a little bit, but if this game goes as I’m picturing it that won’t matter all that much either. Same goes for Oklahoma’s advantage in the turnover department, which could come into play but it’s small enough and this game should be wide open enough I don’t think it matters all that much.
I guess, in my opinion, it’s all going to come down to making shots. Michigan State is a better shot making team, but Oklahoma is a better shot defending team. Oklahoma has the best offensive weapon in Buddy Hield, but Michigan State probably has the next three in Travis Trice, Denzel Valentine, and Branden Dawson. Oklahoma is a great free throw shooting team, while Michigan State is terrible. How much is that going to matter in a game where neither team draws many fouls? I really don’t know. I don’t have a great read on the side here, but I think we’ll see points.
Bet: Oklahoma +2.5 (1 UNIT), OVER 134 (3 UNITS)
The Sooners were 6-4 this year in games against the kenpom 100 that hit 70 possessions or more; the Spartans 1-2. Sparty is definitely a deeper squad, but with almost a week of rest at this point in the season that’s pretty meaningless outside of foul trouble and neither team draws many fouls, so that advantage is pretty much irrelevant. Michigan State is a better rebounding team by a little bit, but if this game goes as I’m picturing it that won’t matter all that much either. Same goes for Oklahoma’s advantage in the turnover department, which could come into play but it’s small enough and this game should be wide open enough I don’t think it matters all that much.
I guess, in my opinion, it’s all going to come down to making shots. Michigan State is a better shot making team, but Oklahoma is a better shot defending team. Oklahoma has the best offensive weapon in Buddy Hield, but Michigan State probably has the next three in Travis Trice, Denzel Valentine, and Branden Dawson. Oklahoma is a great free throw shooting team, while Michigan State is terrible. How much is that going to matter in a game where neither team draws many fouls? I really don’t know. I don’t have a great read on the side here, but I think we’ll see points.
Bet: Oklahoma +2.5 (1 UNIT), OVER 134 (3 UNITS)
Monday, October 3, 2011
NCAA Basketball Preview - The Pac 12
Here's what you need to know about the Pac-12 this year - they're going to be bad again. Once again, the Pac teams have been hit hard by attrition and although they continue to pull in a good share of stud recruits, the players are leaving more quickly than they can be replaced. If there was an easy way to look this up without having to straight count it or if there was a page with bids by conference by year, but there's not, so instead I'll just point out how the Pac has struggled even getting 2-3 teams bids in the last few seasons.
They've done so crappy in the non-conference slate that it's hard to build a profile back-up in a conference where seemingly everybody has a bad early loss. Last year Oregon lost to San Jose State and Idaho, UCLA lost to Montana, USC lost to Rider, Bradley, Nebraska, and TCU, Stanford lost to Tulsa, Oregon State lost to Seattle, Texas Southern, and Utah Valley, and Arizona State lost to New Mexico. Those are RPI killers and bring down the whole league. They'll stabilize eventually because of the level of some of the programs, but this might be another rough one.
Oh well, at least they have hot chicks.
1. CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS. Unlike the majority of the team's in the Pac-12, Cal managed to avoid getting hit with the big curse of graduations/NBA defections and as such they should be the best team in the conference this year, despite the fact that Justin Cobbs is probably going to be their starting point guard. And Cobbsy should have plenty of opportunity for assists with Cal bringing back a lot of fire power - Jorge Gutierrez, Harper Kamp, and Allen Crabbe are all back and all averaged over 13 points per game last season. Of course, Cal was also a pretty terrible defensive team last year and lost their best inside presence, so it's not like they're going to run away with anything here. And speaking of running.........
2. UCLA BRUINS. Just like Washington, UCLA was also hit pretty hard in the losing players department. Replacing Malcolm Lee and Tyler Honeycutt won't be easy, but luckily the Bruins have plenty coming back and a bumper crop of newcomers to help ease the transition. Interestingly, of the newcomers the only freshman is SG Norman Powell (#69 overall on Rivals), but he's been called a Jrue Holliday type athlete, so he should be pretty damn impressive. The newcomers most key to the Bruins' season are the Wear twins, 6-10 former McDonald's All-Americans who transferred over from North Carolina. Despite their identical size, their skill sets put one at the 4 and one at the 3, adding some extra flexibility. As long as they get quality point guard play from Lazeric Jones they'll be at the top end of the Pac. And I wrote all that without mentioning their best player, Reeves Nelson, who is like what Brian Cardinal or Dusty Rychart would have been if they had actual talent. So yeah, UCLA is fairly loaded, much like myself (booze not money).
3. WASHINGTON HUSKIES. Washington was hit hard by graduations and early defections, losing their three best players in PG Isaiah "Captain Circus Ball" Thomas, Justin Holiday, and Matthew Bryan-Amaning. No need to panic however, because with Lorenzo Romar still coaching and Abdul Gaddy still around the sweet Circus Ball days should continue. And thank god. Really, if you haven't taken in a Washington basketball game lately you owe it to yourself to. Two of my favorite memories of the last 2 tournaments are watching them play New Mexico and North Carolina. The tempo is just out of this world. Oh, and Washington also signed another fast as hell guard in Tony Wroten, so fire up the band!
4. ARIZONA WILDCATS. This sounds pretty familiar at this point, but Zona is yet another Pac-12 team losing a bunch of talent from last year with not only Derrick Williams but also Lamont Jones gone. Fortunately they're bringing in an excellent class to help out, highlighted by the backcourt duo of PG Josiah Turner (#2 PG, #11 overall) and SG Nick Johnson (#4 SG, #18 overall). Turner should keep Arizona's traditional of top PG play alive and I'd bet this is the best incoming backcourt in America, but Arizona's lack of impact returning players will hold them down, and their improvement will be the difference between the NCAA and NIT this year.
5. STANFORD CARDINAL. Stanford loses their leading scorer, Jeremy Green, to the NBA Draft even though he's a dummkopf and didn't get drafted, but luckily for them they have Chasson Randle (#78 recruit) coming on and ready to step in to his starting position after choosing the Cardinal over Illinois and Purdue probably because he's a nerd but didn't want to go to Northwestern because they're terrible at everything always. Everyone else is back from last year's mediocre team, and Stanford will likely end up in the same mediocre position as last season unless somebody shows a vast jump in ability. The most likely candidate is 6-8 PF Josh Owens, a fifth-year senior whose numbers nearly doubled last year.
6. OREGON DUCKS. I don't know if it's the attrition from other teams or improvement on the Ducks' part, but suddenly Oregon is looking a little frisky under second-year coach Dana Altman. I'm just kidding - it's the attrition. But things are looking up, starting with the end of last season's championship in the CBI. . What? It counts. Anyway, the Ducks lose their leading scorer and rebounder from last year and their starting point guard, but have a bunch of quality adds including guard Jabari Brown, the #19 freshman according to Rivals, and possibly the best incoming shooter on the West Coast who turned down UCONN, Kansas, and Washington to come to Eugene. Of course, your boyfriend Devoe Joseph becomes eligible after the first semester and will add some scoring pop in a more uptempo system. Of course, the smart move would have been to sit out this year so he could have played all of next season, when the Ducks will be better and, you know, he'd be eligible for the whole year. Then again, I suppose Devoe has never been known for thinking things through.
7. ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS. There's nothing more fun than watching players from Minnesota light it up for other teams and this might be your best chance outside of Iowa State. Trent Lockett led the Sun Devils in scoring last season at 13.4 per game, and with the team's 2nd, 3rd, and 4th leading scorers all gone ASU might look to Lockett to be less a part of the offense than the majority of the offense. He doubled his scoring average from his freshman to sophomore year, so he could be up for the challenge. The two guys who really need to step up are guard Kaela King and forward Carrick Felix. King was a much heralded and celebrated get for the Sun Devils as the #26 recruit in the country going into last year, but really had a disappointing year scoring over 10 points in a game just twice. Felix originally committed to Duke before pulling out and and coming to Tempe, and like King needs to live up to his pedigree if ASU is going to compete for an NCAA bid this year.
8. WASHINGTON STATE COUGARS. Losing a guy like Klay Thompson, who did everything for your team and led the conference in scoring, is always going to sting but you can try to prepare because it was pretty obvious odds were better than 50/50 he'd be heading to the NBA. What makes it worse is when DeAngelo Castro - double-digit scorer, leading rebounder, and second in the conference in FG percentage - bolts as well to head play professionally in Turkey. They still have some fire power with second leading scorer and noted chucker Faisel Aden returning to throw the ball at the rim, but the key will be to see if he and junior PG Reggie Moore can co-exist. Moore looked like a future star in his freshman year, but after Aden arrived he regressed with both Aden and Thompson needing the ball constantly. If Moore can figure out his role that could be the difference between my 9th place prediction and as high as 7th.
9. OREGON STATE BEAVERS. I thought last year the Beavers had a shot to return to relevance for the first time since the days of Corey Benjamin, but alas, it was not meant to be, but at least they had the decency to let everyone know right away by losing to Seattle, Texas Southern, and Utah Valley before the season was a month old. Just like Gary Sinise I won't get fooled again, but it is hard not to like their guards in Roberto Nelson and Jared Cunningham who are about as athletic as can be with Cunningham averaging nearly three steals per game last season, good enough for fifth in the country. Really though, this was a bad team last year who did almost nothing well (other than steal the ball), last year's leading assist man averaged just 2.4 per game and is a 280 lb. power forward, and they lost one of their best players from last season with nothing real impressive waiting to step in. So yeah, not a sleeper.
10. USC TROJANS. Last year USC made the tournament on the backs of their twin towers Nikola Vucevic and Alex Stephenson and solid guard play from the trio of Jio Fontan, Maurice Jones, and Donte Smith. Now both of the bigs are gone along with Smith, and Fontan broke his knee off during the team's trip to Brazil, leaving just Jones and 8 other scholarship players (they also have two transfers eating up schollys who won't be eligible until next year and a season-ending shoulder injury to another guy), only one of whom has played in more than 6 games in his career. Jones will have a little bit of help coming in with former Iowa forward Aaron Fuller becoming eligible this year and a big JuCo center coming in to rave reviews, but the only way USC is going to do much this year is with their usual solid defense, but not even that will be enough to make them post season relevant this year.
11. COLORADO BUFFALOES. Every so often things come together for even the most moribund of programs and unheralded players improve, diamonds in the rough shine, and for one brief year a school that rarely makes its mark on the basketball world has a huge year. Unfortunately when that happened for Colorado they somehow managed to bumblefuck it up and ended up in the NIT. Now their four leading scorers are gone, including two of the better players in school history in Alec Burks and Cory Higgins, and Colorado prepares for the basement once again, but at least it's a brand new shiny basement. Andre Roberson is a great athlete who led the team in rebounding, blocks, and steals last year and that's pretty much where the positives stop. I heard it's a fun town though.
12. UTAH UTES. Remember when Majerus had Utah running along as a major western power? Well that's not really relevant here. Utah fired their coach after four straight losing seasons, which then sent four major contributors from last year's team will eligibility remaining heading for the transfer door which, along with graduations, means a terrible Utah team will now be missing 5 of their top 6 scorers from last season. They do get back #2 leading scorer Josh Watkins at 15 per game and have a couple of assets most teams don't in a pair of 7-footers in David Foster and Josh Washburn. Neither is particularly athletic or skilled, but you can't teach size so they'll grab rebounds, block shots, and probably make at least 50% of their lay-ups.
Other previews:
Big 12
ACC
Atlantic 10
They've done so crappy in the non-conference slate that it's hard to build a profile back-up in a conference where seemingly everybody has a bad early loss. Last year Oregon lost to San Jose State and Idaho, UCLA lost to Montana, USC lost to Rider, Bradley, Nebraska, and TCU, Stanford lost to Tulsa, Oregon State lost to Seattle, Texas Southern, and Utah Valley, and Arizona State lost to New Mexico. Those are RPI killers and bring down the whole league. They'll stabilize eventually because of the level of some of the programs, but this might be another rough one.
Oh well, at least they have hot chicks.
1. CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS. Unlike the majority of the team's in the Pac-12, Cal managed to avoid getting hit with the big curse of graduations/NBA defections and as such they should be the best team in the conference this year, despite the fact that Justin Cobbs is probably going to be their starting point guard. And Cobbsy should have plenty of opportunity for assists with Cal bringing back a lot of fire power - Jorge Gutierrez, Harper Kamp, and Allen Crabbe are all back and all averaged over 13 points per game last season. Of course, Cal was also a pretty terrible defensive team last year and lost their best inside presence, so it's not like they're going to run away with anything here. And speaking of running.........
2. UCLA BRUINS. Just like Washington, UCLA was also hit pretty hard in the losing players department. Replacing Malcolm Lee and Tyler Honeycutt won't be easy, but luckily the Bruins have plenty coming back and a bumper crop of newcomers to help ease the transition. Interestingly, of the newcomers the only freshman is SG Norman Powell (#69 overall on Rivals), but he's been called a Jrue Holliday type athlete, so he should be pretty damn impressive. The newcomers most key to the Bruins' season are the Wear twins, 6-10 former McDonald's All-Americans who transferred over from North Carolina. Despite their identical size, their skill sets put one at the 4 and one at the 3, adding some extra flexibility. As long as they get quality point guard play from Lazeric Jones they'll be at the top end of the Pac. And I wrote all that without mentioning their best player, Reeves Nelson, who is like what Brian Cardinal or Dusty Rychart would have been if they had actual talent. So yeah, UCLA is fairly loaded, much like myself (booze not money).
3. WASHINGTON HUSKIES. Washington was hit hard by graduations and early defections, losing their three best players in PG Isaiah "Captain Circus Ball" Thomas, Justin Holiday, and Matthew Bryan-Amaning. No need to panic however, because with Lorenzo Romar still coaching and Abdul Gaddy still around the sweet Circus Ball days should continue. And thank god. Really, if you haven't taken in a Washington basketball game lately you owe it to yourself to. Two of my favorite memories of the last 2 tournaments are watching them play New Mexico and North Carolina. The tempo is just out of this world. Oh, and Washington also signed another fast as hell guard in Tony Wroten, so fire up the band!
4. ARIZONA WILDCATS. This sounds pretty familiar at this point, but Zona is yet another Pac-12 team losing a bunch of talent from last year with not only Derrick Williams but also Lamont Jones gone. Fortunately they're bringing in an excellent class to help out, highlighted by the backcourt duo of PG Josiah Turner (#2 PG, #11 overall) and SG Nick Johnson (#4 SG, #18 overall). Turner should keep Arizona's traditional of top PG play alive and I'd bet this is the best incoming backcourt in America, but Arizona's lack of impact returning players will hold them down, and their improvement will be the difference between the NCAA and NIT this year.
5. STANFORD CARDINAL. Stanford loses their leading scorer, Jeremy Green, to the NBA Draft even though he's a dummkopf and didn't get drafted, but luckily for them they have Chasson Randle (#78 recruit) coming on and ready to step in to his starting position after choosing the Cardinal over Illinois and Purdue probably because he's a nerd but didn't want to go to Northwestern because they're terrible at everything always. Everyone else is back from last year's mediocre team, and Stanford will likely end up in the same mediocre position as last season unless somebody shows a vast jump in ability. The most likely candidate is 6-8 PF Josh Owens, a fifth-year senior whose numbers nearly doubled last year.
6. OREGON DUCKS. I don't know if it's the attrition from other teams or improvement on the Ducks' part, but suddenly Oregon is looking a little frisky under second-year coach Dana Altman. I'm just kidding - it's the attrition. But things are looking up, starting with the end of last season's championship in the CBI. . What? It counts. Anyway, the Ducks lose their leading scorer and rebounder from last year and their starting point guard, but have a bunch of quality adds including guard Jabari Brown, the #19 freshman according to Rivals, and possibly the best incoming shooter on the West Coast who turned down UCONN, Kansas, and Washington to come to Eugene. Of course, your boyfriend Devoe Joseph becomes eligible after the first semester and will add some scoring pop in a more uptempo system. Of course, the smart move would have been to sit out this year so he could have played all of next season, when the Ducks will be better and, you know, he'd be eligible for the whole year. Then again, I suppose Devoe has never been known for thinking things through.
7. ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS. There's nothing more fun than watching players from Minnesota light it up for other teams and this might be your best chance outside of Iowa State. Trent Lockett led the Sun Devils in scoring last season at 13.4 per game, and with the team's 2nd, 3rd, and 4th leading scorers all gone ASU might look to Lockett to be less a part of the offense than the majority of the offense. He doubled his scoring average from his freshman to sophomore year, so he could be up for the challenge. The two guys who really need to step up are guard Kaela King and forward Carrick Felix. King was a much heralded and celebrated get for the Sun Devils as the #26 recruit in the country going into last year, but really had a disappointing year scoring over 10 points in a game just twice. Felix originally committed to Duke before pulling out and and coming to Tempe, and like King needs to live up to his pedigree if ASU is going to compete for an NCAA bid this year.
8. WASHINGTON STATE COUGARS. Losing a guy like Klay Thompson, who did everything for your team and led the conference in scoring, is always going to sting but you can try to prepare because it was pretty obvious odds were better than 50/50 he'd be heading to the NBA. What makes it worse is when DeAngelo Castro - double-digit scorer, leading rebounder, and second in the conference in FG percentage - bolts as well to head play professionally in Turkey. They still have some fire power with second leading scorer and noted chucker Faisel Aden returning to throw the ball at the rim, but the key will be to see if he and junior PG Reggie Moore can co-exist. Moore looked like a future star in his freshman year, but after Aden arrived he regressed with both Aden and Thompson needing the ball constantly. If Moore can figure out his role that could be the difference between my 9th place prediction and as high as 7th.
9. OREGON STATE BEAVERS. I thought last year the Beavers had a shot to return to relevance for the first time since the days of Corey Benjamin, but alas, it was not meant to be, but at least they had the decency to let everyone know right away by losing to Seattle, Texas Southern, and Utah Valley before the season was a month old. Just like Gary Sinise I won't get fooled again, but it is hard not to like their guards in Roberto Nelson and Jared Cunningham who are about as athletic as can be with Cunningham averaging nearly three steals per game last season, good enough for fifth in the country. Really though, this was a bad team last year who did almost nothing well (other than steal the ball), last year's leading assist man averaged just 2.4 per game and is a 280 lb. power forward, and they lost one of their best players from last season with nothing real impressive waiting to step in. So yeah, not a sleeper.
10. USC TROJANS. Last year USC made the tournament on the backs of their twin towers Nikola Vucevic and Alex Stephenson and solid guard play from the trio of Jio Fontan, Maurice Jones, and Donte Smith. Now both of the bigs are gone along with Smith, and Fontan broke his knee off during the team's trip to Brazil, leaving just Jones and 8 other scholarship players (they also have two transfers eating up schollys who won't be eligible until next year and a season-ending shoulder injury to another guy), only one of whom has played in more than 6 games in his career. Jones will have a little bit of help coming in with former Iowa forward Aaron Fuller becoming eligible this year and a big JuCo center coming in to rave reviews, but the only way USC is going to do much this year is with their usual solid defense, but not even that will be enough to make them post season relevant this year.
11. COLORADO BUFFALOES. Every so often things come together for even the most moribund of programs and unheralded players improve, diamonds in the rough shine, and for one brief year a school that rarely makes its mark on the basketball world has a huge year. Unfortunately when that happened for Colorado they somehow managed to bumblefuck it up and ended up in the NIT. Now their four leading scorers are gone, including two of the better players in school history in Alec Burks and Cory Higgins, and Colorado prepares for the basement once again, but at least it's a brand new shiny basement. Andre Roberson is a great athlete who led the team in rebounding, blocks, and steals last year and that's pretty much where the positives stop. I heard it's a fun town though.
12. UTAH UTES. Remember when Majerus had Utah running along as a major western power? Well that's not really relevant here. Utah fired their coach after four straight losing seasons, which then sent four major contributors from last year's team will eligibility remaining heading for the transfer door which, along with graduations, means a terrible Utah team will now be missing 5 of their top 6 scorers from last season. They do get back #2 leading scorer Josh Watkins at 15 per game and have a couple of assets most teams don't in a pair of 7-footers in David Foster and Josh Washburn. Neither is particularly athletic or skilled, but you can't teach size so they'll grab rebounds, block shots, and probably make at least 50% of their lay-ups.
Other previews:
Big 12
ACC
Atlantic 10
Thursday, October 28, 2010
Mountain West College Basketball 2010 Preview
1. San Diego State Aztecs. I don't want to oversell a Mountain West team, because then I'd end up looking like some kind of jackass who pimps Dayton as a dynasty, but this Aztec team is loaded, and if you're looking for a final four sleeper from a non-BCS conference, look no further. Kawhi Leonard is a complete stud, a potential NBA draft pick, and is top five amongst returnees in the conference in points, rebounds and steals and top 20 in blocks, assists, and field goal percentage. Mean amongst boys, you might say, and he has his whole posse coming back with him. You got his buddies down low in Malcolm Thomas, a double-digit scorer who was top 5 in rebounding, blocks, and FG% last year, and Billy White, another double-digit scorer who led the league in FG percentage at 59%. And you get your starting back court back in double-figure scorer D.J. Gay (ha ha) and Chase Tapley. Really the only thing they need is a true point guard (Gay is more of a combo) and a shooter. Well, they signed a top point guard prospect in LaBradford Franklin, so really all they need is a shooter - if they need anything at all. In case you can't tell, I'm high on SDSU this year. Got 'em at 100-1, baby. We goin' sizzla'.
2. BYU Cougars. Jimmer is back, and Jimmer is Jimmer, but he unfortunately loses his boy Tyler Haws to his weird mormon mission, what with the strange underwear and the weird supplementary bible works. That's not to say Jimmer is on his own, because his third little buddy in the back court, Jackson Emery, is back, as is Noah Hartsock to man the lane. The losses will hurt (along with Haws the Cougars also lose do-everything forward Jonathan Tavernari and starting center Chris Miles), but there is enough talent surrounding Jimmer that BYU should be dancing again this year, if dancing was allowed by the Mormon religion. And by the way, Jimmer is totally a Utah/Mormon name. My wife was raised mormon, and her family is bonkers. She has cousins who named their kids Londyn, Brooklyn, Okland, Dagon, Presley, Daxton, Lindy, Maximus, and Braden. I swear to god I'm not kidding.
3. UNLV Runnin' Rebels. The Rebels looked like the were going to be in great shape, getting all five starters back from last year's NCAA Tournament team, but then Tre'Von Willis choked some chick (that's frowned upon), Matt Shaw was booted after failing a drug test, and Kendall Wallace tore his ACL and is out for the year. Ouch. Luckily (for the team and Willis, not so much for the girl) Willis is only going to miss three games, and he'll be joined by Chace Stanback and Oscar Bellfield, as well as Derrick Jasper assuming he's back from his own knee injury. That's enough to be near the top in the MWC but bad luck and dumb choices knock them down from loaded to merely good.
4. New Mexico Lobos. Usually when a program like New Mexico loses a couple of guys like Darington Hobson and Roman Martinez from a team that went 30-5 and reached the second round of the NCAA Tournament you can count on a down period to follow. Luckily for Lobo fans, Steve Alford has them looking like the kind of team where a letdown still means an NCAA bid. Stepping in for those two are Drew Gordon, the transfer from UCLA who played well in Westwood before heading to the desert, and Alex Kirk (who the Gophers were looking at at one point) who is the one of only two Rivals Top 150 recruit coming to the MWC (he's #116, the other is BYU's Kyle Collinsworth at #134). It's not an even trade, of course, because Martinez and Hobson were do-it-all wings while Gordon and Kirk are post players, but it's the kind of influx of talent that will help, along with returning point guard Dairese Gary - particularly if Gordon has his head on straight. Don't forget, he was a top 50 player as a freshman, and was averaging double-figures in points and 2 blocks per game last year. He's still got the talent to be a star.
5. Colorado State Rams. Tim Miles has done a hell of a job, Travis Busch signing notwithstanding (and by the way, I heard he likes to hang out by himself in bars near the campus on Saturday mornings - true story), and he has the Rams solidly turned around from "shitbox" to "mediocre." I don't know that they can turn the corner just yet, but there is some talent here. Andy Ogide returns to man the paint for the Rams and he was top five in the league in both rebounding and field goal percentage, and Dorian Green had a very nice freshman season at point for CSU last year, averaging 12 points and 3 assists per game. And don't forget this is where one-time Gopher PF target Chad Calcaterra landed. He'll have a chance to contribute right away, but this team isn't quite ready to compete for an NCAA berth yet. If only they had Travis Busch for one more year, that kind of hustle cures all ills.
6. Wyoming Cowboys. The success (it's a relative term) of the Cowboys' season this year pretty much rests on the health of Afam Mujoeke's knee. Two seasons ago Mujoeke won the MWC Freshman of the Year award, and then last year he was having a fine season averaging 17 points per game before he blew out his patella tendon, which sounds pretty terrible. If he's back at full strength he'll join sophomore Desmar Jackson to give the Cowboys a nice one-two scoring punch, and make them viable enough that they will at least threaten to upset a team or two. If he's not all the way back, it's going to be a long year in Laramie. Or longer, at least. I mean, I assume it's always a long year in Wyoming, what with all the long hours baling hay and milking cows before class and what not.
7. Utah Utes. This will be the last season for the Utes in the Mountain West, and it's probably about time to leave before they tarnish their legacy, because after being the dominant force in the conference since it's inception in 1999, winning five of the first seven league titles, they've fallen off, finishing better than 5th just once in the last five seasons and gaining just one NCAA berth. That probably won't get much better this year. Both of last year's two leading scorers are transferring (Carlon Brown to Colorado, Marshall Henderson to Texas Tech), and a host of bench fodder is leaving as well (missions and what have you) and the Utes will have a whole slew of new faces. If some of those new guys turn out to be good guards Utah could finish higher than this because they do have a lot of size in 7-3 David Foster and 7-0 Jason Washburn, both of whom finished in the top five in blocked shots in the MWC with Foster finishing fourth nationally. So they're big. And probably slow since I assume the whole team is white.
8. TCU Horned Frogs. Well if we want to start with something nice, let's talk about TCU's back court because it's actually quite solid. Ronnie Moss is an excellent all-around player who led the team in scoring (14.9 per game) and assists (5.9 per game, good for 1st in the conference and 9th nationally) and also chipped in with more than 3 rebounds and almost a steal per game. He's not exactly a wizard with the jump shot (just 40% shooting last year) and he turns it over way too much (3.8 per game) but still - he's a heck of a player. Joining him in the back court this year will be Hank Thorns, a transfer from Virginia Tech who had some limited success in his two years as a Hokie, hampered only by the fact that he can't shoot (30% from the field as a sophomore). And speaking of can't shoot the third guard and second leading returning scorer, Greg Hill, shot just 41% last year, which actually makes him the marksman of the group. So the guards are good but they can't shoot. Now let me tell you all the good things about their front court players: at least they aren't Air Force.
9. Air Force Falcons. Remember when Air Force was kind of good for a minute there, using that slower-than-a-Vickers-Gunbus-offense? They actually made the tournament in 2004 and 2006, but things have fallen off faster than Maverick after Goose died, and the Falcons have won just won conference game combined the last two seasons - lost that lovin' feeling indeed. I'd love to sit here and make Top Gun/Fighter Jet jokes for another few sentences, but researching the Falcons makes me feel like Cougar after getting missile locked, and there's no Viper to be my wingman. Great Balls of Fire!!
4. New Mexico Lobos. Usually when a program like New Mexico loses a couple of guys like Darington Hobson and Roman Martinez from a team that went 30-5 and reached the second round of the NCAA Tournament you can count on a down period to follow. Luckily for Lobo fans, Steve Alford has them looking like the kind of team where a letdown still means an NCAA bid. Stepping in for those two are Drew Gordon, the transfer from UCLA who played well in Westwood before heading to the desert, and Alex Kirk (who the Gophers were looking at at one point) who is the one of only two Rivals Top 150 recruit coming to the MWC (he's #116, the other is BYU's Kyle Collinsworth at #134). It's not an even trade, of course, because Martinez and Hobson were do-it-all wings while Gordon and Kirk are post players, but it's the kind of influx of talent that will help, along with returning point guard Dairese Gary - particularly if Gordon has his head on straight. Don't forget, he was a top 50 player as a freshman, and was averaging double-figures in points and 2 blocks per game last year. He's still got the talent to be a star.
6. Wyoming Cowboys. The success (it's a relative term) of the Cowboys' season this year pretty much rests on the health of Afam Mujoeke's knee. Two seasons ago Mujoeke won the MWC Freshman of the Year award, and then last year he was having a fine season averaging 17 points per game before he blew out his patella tendon, which sounds pretty terrible. If he's back at full strength he'll join sophomore Desmar Jackson to give the Cowboys a nice one-two scoring punch, and make them viable enough that they will at least threaten to upset a team or two. If he's not all the way back, it's going to be a long year in Laramie. Or longer, at least. I mean, I assume it's always a long year in Wyoming, what with all the long hours baling hay and milking cows before class and what not.
Monday, December 28, 2009
Week in Review - 12/28/2009
WonderbabyTM seemingly brought home what I can only assume to be the black plague from her day care, infecting everyone who got within a mile of her with a horrible stomach bug that attacked at both ends. And yes, now it's my turn to have it - joy. Yet I struggle through to still bring you, constant reader, your daily entertainment. Some of these entries I wrote earlier in the week, and some I just typed up now while running to the bathroom every five minutes. See if you can guess which are which.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Mountain West Football. Can someone tell me why the hell the MWC isn't included in this BCS garbage? The Mountain West, after Utah killed Cal and BYU thrashed Oregon State this week, is now 3-0 in bowl games, and has just been destroying anybody foolish enough to accept a bid to play against them. It started with the New Mexico Bowl, a game where Fresno was a 10-point favorite against Wyoming, but the Cowboys represented the conference well with an upset win in overtime. Then it got really fun, with the BYU destroying an almost-in-the-Rose-Bowl Oregon State 44-20 in the Las Vegas Bowl (and it wasn't nearly that close) and then Utah winning their ninth straight bowl game in impressive fashion, stomping on Cal 37-27 in the Poinsettia Bowl. Really folks, the Mountain West's continual success against other conferences, not to mention TCU's monster year, should be all the argument you need that these guys are every bit as good as any of the other conferences out there. Time to expand the BCS agreement.
2. Elliot Williams. You familiar with this kid at all? He's the former Dukie who transferred to Memphis last season to be closer to his ailing mother who is now single-handedly making sure the Tigers are still the tops in Conference USA. He was a top 20 recruit who didn't play much for Duke last season (although he did hit double-figures in four of their last 8 games), but his transferring to Memphis has made a world of difference. After a monster game against SE Missouri State on Tuesday (20 points, 8 rebounds, 9 assists) he's now averaging 20-5-4 on the season and has the Tigers at 8-2, and although I sort of think Memphis is a paper tiger this year (their best win is over Montana State), there is no doubting Williams is the real banana (perhaps even the famous "Kirk Cameron Banana").
3. Old Dominion. As badly as I wanted to include ODU last week after they knocked off Georgetown, I just couldn't find room for them. Now, after they made a pretty good Charlotte team essentially clean their room and then give them a BJ, I can't possibly keep the Monarchs and their single-handed effort to make the Colonial relevant again out any longer. These guys might be just 8-4, but they have played a bitch of a schedule and all four losses area to good teams - Dayton, Missouri, Mississippi State, and Richmond - and they had a huge week with wins over both Georgetown and Charlotte. With VCU looking very good once again (wins over Oklahoma, Nevada, Rhode Island, and Richmond) and William & Mary looking relevant for the first time ever (wins over Wake Forest, Richmond, and VCU), the Colonial might be looking at another multi-bid year, and ODU will be right there all season long. Ken Pomeroy agrees, his numbers have them ranked 8th in the country right now. Obviously they aren't the 8th best team, but they are certainly looking like an NCAA caliber team, and would probably beat the Gophers by ten or so.
4. USC. Can one program redeem an entire conference in one week? Of course not, that's ridiculous, but it was a great week for the Trojans who won the Diamond Head Classic and brought a little ray of hope and competitiveness to a so far pretty lackluster Pac 10. USC beat Western Michigan (yawn), St. Mary's (pretty good), and UNLV (good win) to take the championship, and in a wide open (code for sucky) Pac 10 they've suddenly become the third best team in the conference.
5. Greg Monroe. Put up an impressive 16 point, 16 rebound, 4 steal, 5 block performance in the Hoyas one-game this week, a 86-70 win over Harvard. You know how people always draft guys like Roy Hibbert, Spencer Hawes, and Hasheem Thabeet early in the lottery and then act all shocked when they turn into either stiffs or nothing more than defensive players. Watch Monroe - this is the guy you should be salivating over. 6-11, super athletic, and a good ball-handler, whoever drafts him is getting a super star. He seriously reminds me a lot of David Robinson. I would love to see the Wolves get him, even with Love and Jefferson; he could end up being a franchise changer for somebody.
WHO SUCKED
1. Oklahoma. Wow. Capel is letting things fall apart all over the place in Soonertown. They only had one game this week, one in which they got whooped by UTEP, and it did end a six-game win streak, but there are some unfortunate rumblings (and that loss to UTEP gives them four, three of which are to likely non-tournament teams which isn't good). First, Capel came out and said he was "tired of trying to figure out" star guard Willie Warren. Then, just two days later, he said he said, "It's amazing you have to tell him to be a good player" in reference to star freshman Tiny Gallon. Third, that same day, Warren came out and asked "Does he not trust me with the ball?", despite the fact that Warren ranks 21st in the country in terms of % of his team's possessions he is involved in. Like I said, the loss to UTEP isn't a killer, and even though the other three losses are not great none of them are killers, but there is some serious dissension in Oklahoma City. I have a feeling they either get their shit together and go on a run and make the tournament (the talent level here is good enough to finish as high as third in the Big 12), or this thing is going to implode in a huge, huge way. Stay tuned (note: my money is on the imploding.).
2. Tulsa. Coming into this season the Golden Hurricane was thought to be a challenger to Memphis's throne in C-USA, but has gone from contender to "has no shot at an at-large at all" in a hurry. They were in the Las Vegas Classic field this week, and essentially it should have been nothing more than an easy win over Nebraska to set up what would have been a very entertaining final against BYU.. Well, Tulsa clearly had no interest in that, instead choosing to drop that game to the Huskers and then by losing to Nevada by 30. Yes, 30. I mean it's not that the loss to Nebraska or Nevada is crippling (or their earlier loss to Missouri State), but they didn't exactly schedule themselves a whole lot of chances to get quality wins, so whiffing on these hurts. Colorado is the only decent opponent left before the C-USA season starts (and there is an unwinnable game against Duke in late February), but as it stands right now they have a nice win over Oklahoma State and that's pretty much it. Conference USA overall is better this year than it has been in the past, but Tulsa will have to have a very nice run to have a chance at an at-large.
3. New Mexico. Nothing quite like taking your school's highest ranking in ten years and just flushing it right down the toilet, eh? The Lobos had ascended all the way to #12 in the polls on the strength of a 12-0 start to the season that included wins over Cal and Texas A&M, and with a very balanced (4 double-figure scorers) and efficient (#16 offensive efficiency) team they were looking likely the favorite in the Mountain West and maybe even a sleeper to do some damange in March, but last week's game against Oral Roberts was officially a suck. The Lobos lost 75-66, thanks mainly to their two leading scorers (Roman Martinez and Darrington Hobson) combining to shoot 6-23. ORU is not a good team at just 7-6 with a couple of ugly losses mixed in their, but I'm not quite ready to dismiss the Lobos as frauds just yet. We should find out pretty quickly - UNM plays Texas Tech and Dayton next week. Stay tuned.
4. New York Giants. If you need to win out to make the playoffs, and all you have a home game against a crappy Carolina team, you probably should make more of an effort than getting steam rolled 41-9 - and once again, this was at home. The Giants turned it over 4 times and allowed Jonathan Stewart to rush for a club record 206 yards. They don't belong anywhere near the playoffs.
5. Indiana, DePaul, Florida, Illinois, and Utah. The Hoosiers lost at home to Loyola (Maryland), the Blue Demons lost to Florida-Gulf Coast, the Gators lost to South Alabama at home, the Illini got rolled by Missouri (following up a loss to Georgia), and Utah lost to Pepperdine (following up a loss to Illinois State) - take your pick for this last spot, too close to call (I'd go DePaul if I had to make a choice).
I hope to feel well enough to get a preview of the Penn State game up today or tomorrow, but just in case I don't, TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Mountain West Football. Can someone tell me why the hell the MWC isn't included in this BCS garbage? The Mountain West, after Utah killed Cal and BYU thrashed Oregon State this week, is now 3-0 in bowl games, and has just been destroying anybody foolish enough to accept a bid to play against them. It started with the New Mexico Bowl, a game where Fresno was a 10-point favorite against Wyoming, but the Cowboys represented the conference well with an upset win in overtime. Then it got really fun, with the BYU destroying an almost-in-the-Rose-Bowl Oregon State 44-20 in the Las Vegas Bowl (and it wasn't nearly that close) and then Utah winning their ninth straight bowl game in impressive fashion, stomping on Cal 37-27 in the Poinsettia Bowl. Really folks, the Mountain West's continual success against other conferences, not to mention TCU's monster year, should be all the argument you need that these guys are every bit as good as any of the other conferences out there. Time to expand the BCS agreement.
2. Elliot Williams. You familiar with this kid at all? He's the former Dukie who transferred to Memphis last season to be closer to his ailing mother who is now single-handedly making sure the Tigers are still the tops in Conference USA. He was a top 20 recruit who didn't play much for Duke last season (although he did hit double-figures in four of their last 8 games), but his transferring to Memphis has made a world of difference. After a monster game against SE Missouri State on Tuesday (20 points, 8 rebounds, 9 assists) he's now averaging 20-5-4 on the season and has the Tigers at 8-2, and although I sort of think Memphis is a paper tiger this year (their best win is over Montana State), there is no doubting Williams is the real banana (perhaps even the famous "Kirk Cameron Banana").
3. Old Dominion. As badly as I wanted to include ODU last week after they knocked off Georgetown, I just couldn't find room for them. Now, after they made a pretty good Charlotte team essentially clean their room and then give them a BJ, I can't possibly keep the Monarchs and their single-handed effort to make the Colonial relevant again out any longer. These guys might be just 8-4, but they have played a bitch of a schedule and all four losses area to good teams - Dayton, Missouri, Mississippi State, and Richmond - and they had a huge week with wins over both Georgetown and Charlotte. With VCU looking very good once again (wins over Oklahoma, Nevada, Rhode Island, and Richmond) and William & Mary looking relevant for the first time ever (wins over Wake Forest, Richmond, and VCU), the Colonial might be looking at another multi-bid year, and ODU will be right there all season long. Ken Pomeroy agrees, his numbers have them ranked 8th in the country right now. Obviously they aren't the 8th best team, but they are certainly looking like an NCAA caliber team, and would probably beat the Gophers by ten or so.
4. USC. Can one program redeem an entire conference in one week? Of course not, that's ridiculous, but it was a great week for the Trojans who won the Diamond Head Classic and brought a little ray of hope and competitiveness to a so far pretty lackluster Pac 10. USC beat Western Michigan (yawn), St. Mary's (pretty good), and UNLV (good win) to take the championship, and in a wide open (code for sucky) Pac 10 they've suddenly become the third best team in the conference.
5. Greg Monroe. Put up an impressive 16 point, 16 rebound, 4 steal, 5 block performance in the Hoyas one-game this week, a 86-70 win over Harvard. You know how people always draft guys like Roy Hibbert, Spencer Hawes, and Hasheem Thabeet early in the lottery and then act all shocked when they turn into either stiffs or nothing more than defensive players. Watch Monroe - this is the guy you should be salivating over. 6-11, super athletic, and a good ball-handler, whoever drafts him is getting a super star. He seriously reminds me a lot of David Robinson. I would love to see the Wolves get him, even with Love and Jefferson; he could end up being a franchise changer for somebody.
WHO SUCKED
1. Oklahoma. Wow. Capel is letting things fall apart all over the place in Soonertown. They only had one game this week, one in which they got whooped by UTEP, and it did end a six-game win streak, but there are some unfortunate rumblings (and that loss to UTEP gives them four, three of which are to likely non-tournament teams which isn't good). First, Capel came out and said he was "tired of trying to figure out" star guard Willie Warren. Then, just two days later, he said he said, "It's amazing you have to tell him to be a good player" in reference to star freshman Tiny Gallon. Third, that same day, Warren came out and asked "Does he not trust me with the ball?", despite the fact that Warren ranks 21st in the country in terms of % of his team's possessions he is involved in. Like I said, the loss to UTEP isn't a killer, and even though the other three losses are not great none of them are killers, but there is some serious dissension in Oklahoma City. I have a feeling they either get their shit together and go on a run and make the tournament (the talent level here is good enough to finish as high as third in the Big 12), or this thing is going to implode in a huge, huge way. Stay tuned (note: my money is on the imploding.).
2. Tulsa. Coming into this season the Golden Hurricane was thought to be a challenger to Memphis's throne in C-USA, but has gone from contender to "has no shot at an at-large at all" in a hurry. They were in the Las Vegas Classic field this week, and essentially it should have been nothing more than an easy win over Nebraska to set up what would have been a very entertaining final against BYU.. Well, Tulsa clearly had no interest in that, instead choosing to drop that game to the Huskers and then by losing to Nevada by 30. Yes, 30. I mean it's not that the loss to Nebraska or Nevada is crippling (or their earlier loss to Missouri State), but they didn't exactly schedule themselves a whole lot of chances to get quality wins, so whiffing on these hurts. Colorado is the only decent opponent left before the C-USA season starts (and there is an unwinnable game against Duke in late February), but as it stands right now they have a nice win over Oklahoma State and that's pretty much it. Conference USA overall is better this year than it has been in the past, but Tulsa will have to have a very nice run to have a chance at an at-large.
3. New Mexico. Nothing quite like taking your school's highest ranking in ten years and just flushing it right down the toilet, eh? The Lobos had ascended all the way to #12 in the polls on the strength of a 12-0 start to the season that included wins over Cal and Texas A&M, and with a very balanced (4 double-figure scorers) and efficient (#16 offensive efficiency) team they were looking likely the favorite in the Mountain West and maybe even a sleeper to do some damange in March, but last week's game against Oral Roberts was officially a suck. The Lobos lost 75-66, thanks mainly to their two leading scorers (Roman Martinez and Darrington Hobson) combining to shoot 6-23. ORU is not a good team at just 7-6 with a couple of ugly losses mixed in their, but I'm not quite ready to dismiss the Lobos as frauds just yet. We should find out pretty quickly - UNM plays Texas Tech and Dayton next week. Stay tuned.
4. New York Giants. If you need to win out to make the playoffs, and all you have a home game against a crappy Carolina team, you probably should make more of an effort than getting steam rolled 41-9 - and once again, this was at home. The Giants turned it over 4 times and allowed Jonathan Stewart to rush for a club record 206 yards. They don't belong anywhere near the playoffs.
5. Indiana, DePaul, Florida, Illinois, and Utah. The Hoosiers lost at home to Loyola (Maryland), the Blue Demons lost to Florida-Gulf Coast, the Gators lost to South Alabama at home, the Illini got rolled by Missouri (following up a loss to Georgia), and Utah lost to Pepperdine (following up a loss to Illinois State) - take your pick for this last spot, too close to call (I'd go DePaul if I had to make a choice).
I hope to feel well enough to get a preview of the Penn State game up today or tomorrow, but just in case I don't, TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE TALOR BATTLE.
Monday, November 16, 2009
Week In Review - 11/16/09
Holy crap dude, how freaking crazy was Belicheck going for it on fourth and two with a six point lead and just two minutes left from his own 30 yard line? Was that anything other than, "We know damn well if we punt you're going to score and beat us, so we better keep the ball as long as possible?" Either that or Belicheck has finally lost it. Just bizarre, but what any entertaining game in general and a great comeback by Manning. College basketball is finally back as well, and my thoughts on the Gopher hoops game are right here. If you're looking for Gopher football thoughts, god save your soul.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Evan Turner. I mentioned this in my Big Ten Preview, but I'll say it again - Evan Turner is ridiculous. He certainly didn't disappoint in the opening week, putting up a triple-double in the opener against Alcorn State and following it up with 24-17-4 against James Madison. Sure, the competition wasn't the best, but Turner and the rest of the Buckeyes looked very, very good, winning the two games by an average of 34 points. I'm telling you, with Turner, David Lighty, and William Buford this team is going to be very tough and Memphis-y. If Jon Diebler keeps shooting like he did last year (or better so far), this is going to be a really good team. We'll know more after next week when they play Carolina, but watch out folks.
2. Rotnei Clarke. Corliss Williamson didn't do it. Scotty Thurman didn't do it. Patrick Beverley didn't do it. Clint McDaniel, Todd Day, and Ronnie Brewer couldn't do it. Hell, not even the great Oliver Miller could do it, but apparently Rotnei Clark can - break 50 points in a game, that is. Clarke became the first Arkansas player to ever score 50 points in a game, putting up 51 in Friday night's 130-66 win over Alcorn State. Clarke had 31 at halftime, and hit 13 three-pointers on 17 attempts for the game breaking the SEC record held by former Arkansas guard Alex Dillard. It's good timing, too. I had just read an article about how the Razorbacks had a bunch of players suspended (including superstud Courtney Fortson) and would need Clarke to step up in order to take some of the pressure off their star center Michael Washington. Step up indeed.
3. Dayton. There are a ton of really good games starting this week, but over the weekend it was mostly blow-outs or mid-level teams squaring off. There was, however, one game between two teams that both had NCAA Tournament aspirations: Creighton vs. Dayton. Seeing as how Dayton is listed at the beginning of this entry, you would probably guess that Dayton won, and you'd be correct. The Flyers trailed most of the game, but outscored Creighton by 15 in the second half behind a strong showing by Chris Wright, who scored 25 on 9-12 shooting. I'm still not entirely sure what to make of Dayton, other than that their fans are deluisonal, but even though they had more trouble with Creighton than they probalby should have, this is still a good win on a resume.
4. Brandon Jennings. I've been trying to avoid talking about Jennings' great start to his NBA career since he really pissed me off by skipping college to go play in Europe, but after Saturday night's 55-point explosion, I don't see any way to put it off any longer. First off, this is a really solid fifty-point game, with a high shooting percentage (21-34 from the floor, 7-8 from three) and some other contributions (5 rebs, 5 assists) - and they won. Second, something like this probably shouldn't be too surprising, especially since he burst into the league and almost had a triple-double in his first ever NBA game (17-9-9). Thirdly, everything I'm reading says that this kid is already the quickest guard in the league and is essentially unguardable one-on-one, and compares him to Allen Iverson. Finally, this really sucks because now I'm going to have to make an effort to watch a Milwaukee game. Thanks Brandon.
5. Ekpe Udoh. Other players may have put up gaudier numbers so far (like Isaiah Thomas's 24.7ppg in three games or Al-Farouq Aminu's 25 and 11 boards per in two games), but nobody surprised me more than Udoh, the former Michigan Wolverine and current Baylor Bear. Udoh put up 18 points and 11 boards (with 3 blocks) in the opener vs. Norfolk State, and followed that up with 21 and 7 with 5 blocks in game 2 vs. Hartford (Vin Baker U). I remember Udoh as a all-defense no offense type, like a young Dikembe Mutombo or any of the endless parade of seven-foot "project" from Senegal into the NCAA. His career average was just 5.5 ppg coming into this season, so either this is merely a case of playing inferior opponents, or Udoh learned some offensive skills. The Bears play two more cupcakes before taking on Alabama and then Arizona State, so we won't know much until then. If he has learned to play offense, it's going to torture Baylor fans because this was the exact piece they were missing last year.
[UPDATE: Found this on ESPN:
When he decided to transfer from Michigan, Baylor's Scott Drew thought he was going to get a super-defensive stud in Ekpe Udoh. He didn't know that Udoh would also be an offensive threat.
Udoh saved the Bears from falling to Hartford yesterday, hitting a 20-foot fadeaway game winner. In addition to his five blocks, Udoh scored 21 points and is now averaging 19.5 ppg through his first two games.
Udoh worked exclusively on his offense during his redshirt season and over the summer. Besides Kevin Rogers, Scott Drew has never really had an offensively-dominating big man. He normally runs the offense entirely through his guards. While this still shouldn't change, it should be nice to have a threat down low in Udoh.]
WHO SUCKED
1. Mississippi State. I read in a couple of places that Miss State was a "dark-horse" final four contender. I love Jarvis Varnado more than I love my wife, but I wasn't quite ready to buy that - at least not until they figured out who they were going to get their offense from. Still, I expected good things. Well, they are not off to a very good start, losing their opener at home to Rider 88-74. Two major issues: three-point defense and scoring. They allowed Rider to shoot 10-16 from three-point range, which is tough to overcome for anybody, particularly when nobody can throw the ball threw the hoop on your own team. Pimp-Daddy Varnado was 8-8 (complete line: 22pts, 14 rebs, 7 blocks - such a stud), but the rest of the team shot just 18-54. The three point defense could jsut be a fluke, but perimeter scoring will need to greatly improve. They run a three guard offense, and the three starters shot a combined 9-31. Varnado deserves better. Pick it up, jerkstores.
2. Utah. The Utes lost their top four scorings from last season, but still had three starters back as well as a bunch of talented new comers, so I don't know if anybody knew what to expect from them this season. I feel reasonably confident, however, in saying that nobody expected to see a team that would lose to Idaho in their season opener, the Vandals first win over Utah since 1938. Now, Idaho is actually a better team this year than most people think, but this game is a stinger for the U of U, and I have a feeling this is going to be a very frustrating year in Mormonville. Special shout out to the Utes two best players, Carlon Brown and Marshall Henderson for shooting a combined 9-27.
3. Jay Cutler. LOL. Nice job Cutty, five interceptions against the 49ers (17 for the season, , including two in the red zone, one of which was in the end zone at the end of the game. The game that the Bears lost 10-6, meaning if they manage even just two field goals or a TD out of those trips, they win. Oh, and also the niners scored all 10 of their points off two of his other picks, with both drives starting in Bears territory. Is it really fair to say he single-handedly lost that game for the Bears? Yes. Yes it is.
4. Timberwolves. Ok, I think we all knew it was going to be bad, but did we know it was going to be this bad? After winning the opener over a hapless New Jersey squad, they have now lost ten straight, including a brutal 0-4 this week that inluded a loss to Memphis who had lost seven straight of their own prior to beating the Wolves. Earlier in the season they were at least putting up a fight - the loss to Boston was a great game - but now they're just getting killed. Their four losses this week were by 41, 23, 12, and 10, with only the 12 point loss to Dallas being in the realm of respectability (the 10 point loss was the Memphis game, and might be more embarrassing than the 41 pointer against Golden State). I know Love is out and now Jefferson is out, but *newsflash* Jefferson was in the lineup for both the Golden State and Portland games, and trust me, it's not just him. Flynn, Love, and Jefferson are the only players who should ever see a starting lineup in their careers, everybody else is a role player at best. Still, better to be a Wolves fan than a fan of Iowa.
5. Iowa. Seriously, you guys are embarrassing the conference. You lost to Texas-San Antonio. AT HOME!! BY TWELVE!!! Good lord, they're a middle level Southland Conference team. They're called the Roadrunners for god's sake, and they had never beaten a Big Ten team. I know they lost a couple pretty good players to transfers after last season, but Anthony Tucker, Matt Gatens, and Jarryd Cole + filler should be enough to beat damn UTSA. I guess when Tucker and Gatens shoot 2-15 from three for the game, it's tough to win. Well, way to go Lickliter, your dismantling of the Iowa basketball program is nearly complete. Honestly, it's like the guy is a double agent. He's my new favorite coach.
As for me, there will be a preview of Stephen F. Austin up shortly, then I'm going to be in New Jersey the rest of the week. I'm sure they'll be a post or two, because what else am I going to do? Until then......
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Evan Turner. I mentioned this in my Big Ten Preview, but I'll say it again - Evan Turner is ridiculous. He certainly didn't disappoint in the opening week, putting up a triple-double in the opener against Alcorn State and following it up with 24-17-4 against James Madison. Sure, the competition wasn't the best, but Turner and the rest of the Buckeyes looked very, very good, winning the two games by an average of 34 points. I'm telling you, with Turner, David Lighty, and William Buford this team is going to be very tough and Memphis-y. If Jon Diebler keeps shooting like he did last year (or better so far), this is going to be a really good team. We'll know more after next week when they play Carolina, but watch out folks.
2. Rotnei Clarke. Corliss Williamson didn't do it. Scotty Thurman didn't do it. Patrick Beverley didn't do it. Clint McDaniel, Todd Day, and Ronnie Brewer couldn't do it. Hell, not even the great Oliver Miller could do it, but apparently Rotnei Clark can - break 50 points in a game, that is. Clarke became the first Arkansas player to ever score 50 points in a game, putting up 51 in Friday night's 130-66 win over Alcorn State. Clarke had 31 at halftime, and hit 13 three-pointers on 17 attempts for the game breaking the SEC record held by former Arkansas guard Alex Dillard. It's good timing, too. I had just read an article about how the Razorbacks had a bunch of players suspended (including superstud Courtney Fortson) and would need Clarke to step up in order to take some of the pressure off their star center Michael Washington. Step up indeed.
3. Dayton. There are a ton of really good games starting this week, but over the weekend it was mostly blow-outs or mid-level teams squaring off. There was, however, one game between two teams that both had NCAA Tournament aspirations: Creighton vs. Dayton. Seeing as how Dayton is listed at the beginning of this entry, you would probably guess that Dayton won, and you'd be correct. The Flyers trailed most of the game, but outscored Creighton by 15 in the second half behind a strong showing by Chris Wright, who scored 25 on 9-12 shooting. I'm still not entirely sure what to make of Dayton, other than that their fans are deluisonal, but even though they had more trouble with Creighton than they probalby should have, this is still a good win on a resume.
4. Brandon Jennings. I've been trying to avoid talking about Jennings' great start to his NBA career since he really pissed me off by skipping college to go play in Europe, but after Saturday night's 55-point explosion, I don't see any way to put it off any longer. First off, this is a really solid fifty-point game, with a high shooting percentage (21-34 from the floor, 7-8 from three) and some other contributions (5 rebs, 5 assists) - and they won. Second, something like this probably shouldn't be too surprising, especially since he burst into the league and almost had a triple-double in his first ever NBA game (17-9-9). Thirdly, everything I'm reading says that this kid is already the quickest guard in the league and is essentially unguardable one-on-one, and compares him to Allen Iverson. Finally, this really sucks because now I'm going to have to make an effort to watch a Milwaukee game. Thanks Brandon.
5. Ekpe Udoh. Other players may have put up gaudier numbers so far (like Isaiah Thomas's 24.7ppg in three games or Al-Farouq Aminu's 25 and 11 boards per in two games), but nobody surprised me more than Udoh, the former Michigan Wolverine and current Baylor Bear. Udoh put up 18 points and 11 boards (with 3 blocks) in the opener vs. Norfolk State, and followed that up with 21 and 7 with 5 blocks in game 2 vs. Hartford (Vin Baker U). I remember Udoh as a all-defense no offense type, like a young Dikembe Mutombo or any of the endless parade of seven-foot "project" from Senegal into the NCAA. His career average was just 5.5 ppg coming into this season, so either this is merely a case of playing inferior opponents, or Udoh learned some offensive skills. The Bears play two more cupcakes before taking on Alabama and then Arizona State, so we won't know much until then. If he has learned to play offense, it's going to torture Baylor fans because this was the exact piece they were missing last year.
[UPDATE: Found this on ESPN:
When he decided to transfer from Michigan, Baylor's Scott Drew thought he was going to get a super-defensive stud in Ekpe Udoh. He didn't know that Udoh would also be an offensive threat.
Udoh saved the Bears from falling to Hartford yesterday, hitting a 20-foot fadeaway game winner. In addition to his five blocks, Udoh scored 21 points and is now averaging 19.5 ppg through his first two games.
Udoh worked exclusively on his offense during his redshirt season and over the summer. Besides Kevin Rogers, Scott Drew has never really had an offensively-dominating big man. He normally runs the offense entirely through his guards. While this still shouldn't change, it should be nice to have a threat down low in Udoh.]
WHO SUCKED
1. Mississippi State. I read in a couple of places that Miss State was a "dark-horse" final four contender. I love Jarvis Varnado more than I love my wife, but I wasn't quite ready to buy that - at least not until they figured out who they were going to get their offense from. Still, I expected good things. Well, they are not off to a very good start, losing their opener at home to Rider 88-74. Two major issues: three-point defense and scoring. They allowed Rider to shoot 10-16 from three-point range, which is tough to overcome for anybody, particularly when nobody can throw the ball threw the hoop on your own team. Pimp-Daddy Varnado was 8-8 (complete line: 22pts, 14 rebs, 7 blocks - such a stud), but the rest of the team shot just 18-54. The three point defense could jsut be a fluke, but perimeter scoring will need to greatly improve. They run a three guard offense, and the three starters shot a combined 9-31. Varnado deserves better. Pick it up, jerkstores.
2. Utah. The Utes lost their top four scorings from last season, but still had three starters back as well as a bunch of talented new comers, so I don't know if anybody knew what to expect from them this season. I feel reasonably confident, however, in saying that nobody expected to see a team that would lose to Idaho in their season opener, the Vandals first win over Utah since 1938. Now, Idaho is actually a better team this year than most people think, but this game is a stinger for the U of U, and I have a feeling this is going to be a very frustrating year in Mormonville. Special shout out to the Utes two best players, Carlon Brown and Marshall Henderson for shooting a combined 9-27.
3. Jay Cutler. LOL. Nice job Cutty, five interceptions against the 49ers (17 for the season, , including two in the red zone, one of which was in the end zone at the end of the game. The game that the Bears lost 10-6, meaning if they manage even just two field goals or a TD out of those trips, they win. Oh, and also the niners scored all 10 of their points off two of his other picks, with both drives starting in Bears territory. Is it really fair to say he single-handedly lost that game for the Bears? Yes. Yes it is.
4. Timberwolves. Ok, I think we all knew it was going to be bad, but did we know it was going to be this bad? After winning the opener over a hapless New Jersey squad, they have now lost ten straight, including a brutal 0-4 this week that inluded a loss to Memphis who had lost seven straight of their own prior to beating the Wolves. Earlier in the season they were at least putting up a fight - the loss to Boston was a great game - but now they're just getting killed. Their four losses this week were by 41, 23, 12, and 10, with only the 12 point loss to Dallas being in the realm of respectability (the 10 point loss was the Memphis game, and might be more embarrassing than the 41 pointer against Golden State). I know Love is out and now Jefferson is out, but *newsflash* Jefferson was in the lineup for both the Golden State and Portland games, and trust me, it's not just him. Flynn, Love, and Jefferson are the only players who should ever see a starting lineup in their careers, everybody else is a role player at best. Still, better to be a Wolves fan than a fan of Iowa.
5. Iowa. Seriously, you guys are embarrassing the conference. You lost to Texas-San Antonio. AT HOME!! BY TWELVE!!! Good lord, they're a middle level Southland Conference team. They're called the Roadrunners for god's sake, and they had never beaten a Big Ten team. I know they lost a couple pretty good players to transfers after last season, but Anthony Tucker, Matt Gatens, and Jarryd Cole + filler should be enough to beat damn UTSA. I guess when Tucker and Gatens shoot 2-15 from three for the game, it's tough to win. Well, way to go Lickliter, your dismantling of the Iowa basketball program is nearly complete. Honestly, it's like the guy is a double agent. He's my new favorite coach.
As for me, there will be a preview of Stephen F. Austin up shortly, then I'm going to be in New Jersey the rest of the week. I'm sure they'll be a post or two, because what else am I going to do? Until then......
Friday, October 2, 2009
NCAA Basketball Preview: MOUNTAIN WEST
A very balanced conference over the last few years, albeit one that can't seem to do anything other than get eliminated in the first round of the NCAA tournament, will change this year with one dominant team and a whole bunch of question marks. Also you can watch how I peter out at the end here, and if you hate these long-winded, stat and name filled previews you're in luck - I'm burned out. The previews are going to be much less fact-intensive going forward.
1. BYU. The Cougars lose their best player in do everything swingman Lee Cummard, but return two other do everything types in swingman Jonathan Tavernari (16 pts/7rebs/2assist per game) and point guard Jimmer Fredette (16/3/4) along with two other starters, including guard Jackson Emery, who made the MWC's All-Defensive Team last year. The Cougars have been a very efficient team, both offensively and defensively the last few years, and there is no reason to expect that to change. BYU should be able to cruise to it's fourth straight Mountain West crown. Also seriously yes, that guy's name is Jimmer. Mormons make up some of the weirdest names.
2. SAN DIEGO STATE. Nearly every contender in the MWC is hit hard by graduation, and the Aztecs are no different. They drop over 50% of their scoring and lose four starters, but are my pick for #2 because they are bringing in some nice talent. Malcolm Thomas and Tyrone Shelley, two former high school teammates as well as teammates of THE MAN Rico Tucker at Pepperdine give them two immediate scoring options -they were the Waves top two scorers two seasons ago and combined to average 28 points and 15 rebounds per game. The Aztecs also welcome in a very solid recruiting class, highlighted by small forward Kawhi Leonard, a major get for the program as the #48th ranked prospect on Rivals150, and former Illinois big man Brian Carlwell.
3. UTAH. The Utes lose their top four scorers from last year, including MWC player of the year Luke Nevill, but still return three starters including point guard Carlon Brown, who is an excellent all-around player and nearly notched a triple-double against Wyoming last season (15-9-9). There are a bunch of intriguing newcomers as well, including two junior college players who ranked on JucoJunctions Top150 List (Rivals), and a freshman shooting guard in Marshall Henderson who can fill it up, going for over 40 three times this past season who turned down Gonzaga and Marquette to become a Ute. Most intriguing are a pair of seven-footers; the 7-3 David Foster who returns from a Mormon mission, and 7-0 Jason Washburn, Rivals #90 before last season, which he ended up redshirting.
4. UNLV. Like SDSU, the Rebels lose over 50% of their scoring and will be relying quite a bit on newcomers, but ultimately their fate may rest in the hands of holdover Tre'Von Willis, a former transfer from Memphis and the team's leading returning scorer (11.4) and rebounder (4.3). He can score, but can also be wildly inconsistent and shot better than 50% in only one of the team's final seven games and finished the year at just 38%. The newcomers are highlighted by a couple of transfers - PG Derrick Jasper from Kentucky and combo forward Chace Stanback from UCLA. Both were top 75 type recruits who, for one reason or another, didn't pan out at their original schools but still bring top tier talent. They will be expected to start and be big contributors immediately. Also incoming is Rivals #66 prospect for this year, shooting guard Anthony Marshall who could also see big minutes.
5. NEW MEXICO. Yet another team hit hard by graduation, the Lobos are losing their top three scorers, including All-MWC First Teamer Tony Dandridge, who was awesome. The good news is that they have a lot of options at guard, including former Gopher commit for like a minute Nate Garth, as well as one-time Iowa commit Dairese Gary who followed Alford into the desert. Add in a couple talented freshmen guards, their best returning player in small forward Roman Martinez, their second leading returning scorer and former top 100 recruit Phillip McDonald, and Junior College All-American wing Darrington Hobson, and the Lobos should end up being a pretty up-tempo team this year - a change from last year's 172nd tempo ranking. The challenge will be finding someone to take over the frontcourt.
6. WYOMING. Maybe the team hit worst by graduation, the Cowboys lose three double-digit scorers including Brandon Ewing, one of the best player's in the school's history. Wyoming will look to Afam Muojeke, the only returning scorer over 5.2 ppg, and a whole host of newcomers this year. The two most interesting newcomers are a pair of opposites; a giant and a midget. The giant comes from Auburn in the form of 7-2 (with a 7-5 wingspan) Boubacar Sylla, who suffered from foot problems and only played in four games for the Tigers. Wyoming coach Heath Schroyer claims he's not a project or a stiff, but we shall see. The little midget is 5-9 point guard JayDee Luster, a transfer from New Mexico State, who was ranked the #19 player in the state of California his senior year of high school and was being recruited by schools like Florida and Wake Forest before hurting his ankle and ending up at NMSU.
7. TCU. Jesus, two and 2/3rds conferences done and I'm already getting burned out. Time to make these shorter. Whatever happened to Brandon Smith? Does anybody know? After he transferred to TCU, he just never showed up. I even checked out a TCU message board at some point last year, and they had no idea over there either. Maybe he's actually Devron Bostick in the witness protection program or some such, or like a Verbal Kint/Kaiser Soyze kind of thing. Makes a lot of sense.
8. COLORADO STATE. Last season I predicted the Gophers would lose when they traveled into Colorado to play CSU. I was wrong, but not by much. I also thought the Rams would be a decent team. I was wrong again. They won just 9 games all year, mainly because their stud Marcus Walker shot just 41%. He's gone now, but your boyfriend and former NDSU coach Tim Miles has the team moving in the right direction, bringing in a nice recruiting class including big man Trevor Williams, who the Gophers showed interest in at one time. He also has already grabbed Chad Calcaterra for 2010, no if only he could find another weiner guard like Ben Woodside his master plan would be complete.
9. AIR FORCE. Triple-option in hoops? Only if the options are slow, slower, and slowest. The Falcons are perennially one of the slowest (read: boringest) teams in all of NCAA basketball. The past five years they have been 2nd, 3rd, 6th, 4th, and 6th in slowest tempo. That shtick was working well a few years ago when they were good, but that coach is gone and now the players are terrible and the team is terrible. They ranked last in, well, almost everything last season and grabbed not a single conference win. Oh, and four of their "best" players from last year are long gone. They're like the Fordham of the Rockies.
I think those got a lot better towards the end there. Plus, as the kind folks from the Xavier board pointed out, I don't really know what I'm talking about anyway. Expect future conference previews, and oh yes, I don't plan to quit, to contain less facts, less research, and more nonsense. I can only believe this is an improvement.
Other Previews:
Conference USA
Atlantic 10
1. BYU. The Cougars lose their best player in do everything swingman Lee Cummard, but return two other do everything types in swingman Jonathan Tavernari (16 pts/7rebs/2assist per game) and point guard Jimmer Fredette (16/3/4) along with two other starters, including guard Jackson Emery, who made the MWC's All-Defensive Team last year. The Cougars have been a very efficient team, both offensively and defensively the last few years, and there is no reason to expect that to change. BYU should be able to cruise to it's fourth straight Mountain West crown. Also seriously yes, that guy's name is Jimmer. Mormons make up some of the weirdest names.
2. SAN DIEGO STATE. Nearly every contender in the MWC is hit hard by graduation, and the Aztecs are no different. They drop over 50% of their scoring and lose four starters, but are my pick for #2 because they are bringing in some nice talent. Malcolm Thomas and Tyrone Shelley, two former high school teammates as well as teammates of THE MAN Rico Tucker at Pepperdine give them two immediate scoring options -they were the Waves top two scorers two seasons ago and combined to average 28 points and 15 rebounds per game. The Aztecs also welcome in a very solid recruiting class, highlighted by small forward Kawhi Leonard, a major get for the program as the #48th ranked prospect on Rivals150, and former Illinois big man Brian Carlwell.
3. UTAH. The Utes lose their top four scorers from last year, including MWC player of the year Luke Nevill, but still return three starters including point guard Carlon Brown, who is an excellent all-around player and nearly notched a triple-double against Wyoming last season (15-9-9). There are a bunch of intriguing newcomers as well, including two junior college players who ranked on JucoJunctions Top150 List (Rivals), and a freshman shooting guard in Marshall Henderson who can fill it up, going for over 40 three times this past season who turned down Gonzaga and Marquette to become a Ute. Most intriguing are a pair of seven-footers; the 7-3 David Foster who returns from a Mormon mission, and 7-0 Jason Washburn, Rivals #90 before last season, which he ended up redshirting.
4. UNLV. Like SDSU, the Rebels lose over 50% of their scoring and will be relying quite a bit on newcomers, but ultimately their fate may rest in the hands of holdover Tre'Von Willis, a former transfer from Memphis and the team's leading returning scorer (11.4) and rebounder (4.3). He can score, but can also be wildly inconsistent and shot better than 50% in only one of the team's final seven games and finished the year at just 38%. The newcomers are highlighted by a couple of transfers - PG Derrick Jasper from Kentucky and combo forward Chace Stanback from UCLA. Both were top 75 type recruits who, for one reason or another, didn't pan out at their original schools but still bring top tier talent. They will be expected to start and be big contributors immediately. Also incoming is Rivals #66 prospect for this year, shooting guard Anthony Marshall who could also see big minutes.
5. NEW MEXICO. Yet another team hit hard by graduation, the Lobos are losing their top three scorers, including All-MWC First Teamer Tony Dandridge, who was awesome. The good news is that they have a lot of options at guard, including former Gopher commit for like a minute Nate Garth, as well as one-time Iowa commit Dairese Gary who followed Alford into the desert. Add in a couple talented freshmen guards, their best returning player in small forward Roman Martinez, their second leading returning scorer and former top 100 recruit Phillip McDonald, and Junior College All-American wing Darrington Hobson, and the Lobos should end up being a pretty up-tempo team this year - a change from last year's 172nd tempo ranking. The challenge will be finding someone to take over the frontcourt.
6. WYOMING. Maybe the team hit worst by graduation, the Cowboys lose three double-digit scorers including Brandon Ewing, one of the best player's in the school's history. Wyoming will look to Afam Muojeke, the only returning scorer over 5.2 ppg, and a whole host of newcomers this year. The two most interesting newcomers are a pair of opposites; a giant and a midget. The giant comes from Auburn in the form of 7-2 (with a 7-5 wingspan) Boubacar Sylla, who suffered from foot problems and only played in four games for the Tigers. Wyoming coach Heath Schroyer claims he's not a project or a stiff, but we shall see. The little midget is 5-9 point guard JayDee Luster, a transfer from New Mexico State, who was ranked the #19 player in the state of California his senior year of high school and was being recruited by schools like Florida and Wake Forest before hurting his ankle and ending up at NMSU.
7. TCU. Jesus, two and 2/3rds conferences done and I'm already getting burned out. Time to make these shorter. Whatever happened to Brandon Smith? Does anybody know? After he transferred to TCU, he just never showed up. I even checked out a TCU message board at some point last year, and they had no idea over there either. Maybe he's actually Devron Bostick in the witness protection program or some such, or like a Verbal Kint/Kaiser Soyze kind of thing. Makes a lot of sense.
8. COLORADO STATE. Last season I predicted the Gophers would lose when they traveled into Colorado to play CSU. I was wrong, but not by much. I also thought the Rams would be a decent team. I was wrong again. They won just 9 games all year, mainly because their stud Marcus Walker shot just 41%. He's gone now, but your boyfriend and former NDSU coach Tim Miles has the team moving in the right direction, bringing in a nice recruiting class including big man Trevor Williams, who the Gophers showed interest in at one time. He also has already grabbed Chad Calcaterra for 2010, no if only he could find another weiner guard like Ben Woodside his master plan would be complete.
9. AIR FORCE. Triple-option in hoops? Only if the options are slow, slower, and slowest. The Falcons are perennially one of the slowest (read: boringest) teams in all of NCAA basketball. The past five years they have been 2nd, 3rd, 6th, 4th, and 6th in slowest tempo. That shtick was working well a few years ago when they were good, but that coach is gone and now the players are terrible and the team is terrible. They ranked last in, well, almost everything last season and grabbed not a single conference win. Oh, and four of their "best" players from last year are long gone. They're like the Fordham of the Rockies.
I think those got a lot better towards the end there. Plus, as the kind folks from the Xavier board pointed out, I don't really know what I'm talking about anyway. Expect future conference previews, and oh yes, I don't plan to quit, to contain less facts, less research, and more nonsense. I can only believe this is an improvement.
Other Previews:
Conference USA
Atlantic 10
Sunday, March 22, 2009
Weekend Review
Hello all, back from Chicago and we all made it home alive. It was an excellent weekend that involved watching Dayton beat West Virginia at a Dayton bar and realizing all Dayton fans are idiots like the guy who usually sits next to us at Williams, playing Yahtzee for three hours at the bar, a lot of discussion of westerns, trainwrecks, boxcars, and other deviant behaviors, some excellent wings, several threatening text messages from Mama Dawger, a Madden draft, Dawger passing out at the bar by 9pm the first night, me losing two elite 8 teams in the first round, Bogart going 5-0 on his $100 bets but still barely breaking even due to his inability to get an OVER/UNDER right, and playing Madden on a 12 foot TV.
I won't spend much time breaking it down, but I do want to relay one specific story, however, and it's the way the trip kicked off. Dawger and Snake came to the airport together, although Dawger was on a different flight than Snake and I. I was surprised when I saw Dawg because I thought he was flying Southwest, and they fly out of the Humphrey terminal. So I said, "Aren't you flying out of Humphrey?" and I get a look back like I'm an idiot and a "No, dummy." well guess what? Yep, he ended up having to run all the way to what he thought was his gate at Lindbergh because he waited too long to head down there, and then they told him he was supposed to fly out of Humphrey. This was about 10 minutes before his flight was scheduled to take off.
So he's got to run all the way to the shuttle, take the shuttle from terminal to terminal, and then get through security again and get to his gate. Naturally, that's impossible. So instead he had to pay to switch to a later flight. Then, when Bogart picked up Snake and I at the airport, we decided not to wait around for Dawger to finally show, so he had to take a cab to Bogart's mansion. He pretty much spent somewhere in the ballpark of $100, all because he's an idiot. Good stuff.
On to the sports,
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. The Big East. Seven teams invited to the tournament, five in the sweet 16 with a sixth (Marquette) who took a third-seeded Missouri team right down to the wire without it's possibly best player. Every said the Big East was the best conference, and that put a lot of pressure on the teams to play up to that standard. They certainly have. Although unlikely, because Syracuse would have to beat not only Oklahoma but also likely North Carolina, we could be heading for an all-Big East Final Four. Louisville, UCONN, and Pitt have the inside track, but Villanova could also surprise.
2. Cole Aldrich. Just in case you didn't already feel enough pain every time you hear his name mentioned, Aldrich got to play in the Metrodome for the first two rounds and put on a show in front of the home crowd. He had a good game in the Jayhawks ten point win over North Dakota State with 23 points and 13 rebounds, and then followed that up with a dominating 13 points, 20 rebounds, and 10 blocks in a stomping of Dayton to put Kansas in the sweet sixteen. It was just the sixth triple double in NCAA Tournament history since steals, blocks, and assists became official stats in 1986, and the first since Dwayne Wade in 2003. Interestingly, both of the last two were at the metrodome, both had Snacks and Old Man W in attendance, and both I went out of town instead of going to the game in person.
3. Blake Griffin. I don't know if you noticed or not, but this guy is really, really, good. Seriously, it's like watching old footage of Wilt Chamberlain dominated poor slow white guys when you watch Griffin play. His combination of size, strength, athleticism, pimpitude, and speed is rarely seen, and if he's not the first overall pick in the NBA draft it'll automatically become the worst pick ever. Griffin put up 28 points and 13 rebounds in the Sooners' opening round win over poor little Morgan State, and he then followed it up with 33 points and 17 rebounds in their surprisingly tough 73-63 win over Michigan. He's so good, the over/under line for his total rebounds was set at 14.5 for the Michigan game. Crazy Papa Griffin (have you seen this guy? Yikes) must be so proud - until he looks over at older brother Tito Griffin.
4. Orlando Mendez-Valdez. Enough of the big guys, let's talk point guards. One of the most impressive guys we watched over the weekend was Mendez-Valdez, aka Taco Hawk aka Magic Taco, the point guard for Western Kentucky who almost single-handedly knocked Gonzaga out of the tournament. He had a good game in the first round upset of Illinois, going for 11 points, 7 rebounds and 6 assists, but then torched Gonzaga in round 2 with 25 points (including 7-10 on three pointers) and 7 assists to just one turnover. Unfortunately the Hilltoppers couldn't quite pull off a second upset, as Jeremy Pargo hit a leaner at the end to finish WKU's run, and Taco Hawk's career, with the Bulldgos pulling it out 83-81. Godspeed Magic Taco. We hardly knew you, but you will be missed.
5. A.J. Price. Watching UCONN destroy Chattanooga 103-47 and then Texas A&M 92-66 one thing is clear; the rest of the country is damn lucky Jerome Dyson got hurt. Even without him, the Huskies might be the favorite to win the whole thing, and point guard AJ Price is a big reason. He lit up Chattanooga for 20 in just 27 minutes, and then followed it up by hitting A&M for 27 points and 8 assists. UCONN will have a very tough elite 8 game against either Missouri or Memphis (assuming they beat Purdue) but if I had to pick all over again, they would be my choice to win - which pretty much guarantees a Purdue upset.
WHO SUCKED
1. The Pac 10. Honest to god, I didn't watch nearly enough Pac 10 games this year because if I had realized they played this piss poor of defense I would never had picked even one team to advance. Watching UCLA give up layup after layup to Villanova was like watching team of retarded fourth graders play the globetrotters. Also had a chance to watch Arizona State against Syracuse, and they were just as bad. Ugly. The Pac had six invites, and only the team that probably shouldn't have gotten one, Arizona, made it out of the weekend.
Cal was seeded higher than Maryland but let the Terps shoot 49% and lost. UCLA beat VCU thanks to them having zero idea what to do down 1 with ten seconds left and the ball, but then got the absolute shit kicked out of them by Nova, giving up 46% shooting which should have been higher but towards the end the Wildcats just started chucking up anything for fun. Washington was one of only two teams seeded #4 or better to not make it out of the weekend, thanks to a loss to Purdue, and even though USC and Arizona St won their first games and were then expected to lose their second, the way these guys play out west is soft and weak. Really wish I had known that before I put ASU and UCLA in the sweet 16.
2. James Harden. Speaking of Arizona State, other than their piss poor girl style defense, they also had no chance of winning thanks to James Harden, likely a top five pick in the NBA draft who refused to show up this weekend. They won their first round game over Temple despite Harden, who shot just 1-8 and scored only 9 points. They were then bounced by an infinitely better Syracuse team, with Harden once again not showing up, going just 2-10 and scoring just 10 points. Unacceptable, especially since he led his team with 20.1ppg in the regular season, and shot over 50%. Even more troubling is that Harden scored 10 points or less six times this season and three of those are in the Sun Devils last three games. Maybe he's a choker, or maybe he's broken, but if I'm going to draft him into the NBA, I'm very nervous.
3. Wake Forest. The only top four team to lose in the first round, the former #1 ranked Demon Deacons not only got beat by Cleveland State, but they straight up got their asses beat, losing 84-69 in a game that honestly probably wasn't that close, ending the year on a 2-game losing streak after losing in their first game of the ACC tournament as well. How ugly was it? Wake's 18 turnovers weren't even the worst part, nor were the 7 by Jeff Teague alone. Wake's defense was the truly awful part, allowing Cleveland State to shoot 48% from the floor, when they shot just 43% for the season, and turning them over just 10 times when they averaged 14 per game during the season. Even worse, the 84 points the Vikings scored was their highest total this season. With Teague, Al-Faroque Aminu, and Josh Johnson all possibly going pro, who knows what direction the program is heading.
4. The State of Utah. Three NCAA bids for the six Utah D-I teams, which should have been four if Weber State hadn't choked in the Big Sky Tournament, and zero wins, zero teams advancing. Utah State looked like absolute garbage other than a little run towards the end when it was pretty much too late, losing to Marquette while refusing to make a shot and not giving it to the Big Ginger enough. Utah, although catching a bit of a bad break by getting the best of the 12 seeds, was still a favorite and probably shouldn't have let Arizona shoot 55%, and BYU was a favorite over Texas A&M (8 over a 9) but got rolled 79-66, losing to the Aggies in the first round for the second year in a row. I'd also like to point out once again that the state of Utah has six division I basketball programs, and Minnesota still has just the one for some reason.
5. Clemson. It wouldn't have been too hard to just include the ACC here, since Wake (see above), Clemson, Florida State, and Boston College all managed to disappoint with first round losses, but Maryland's nice win and the success of UNC and Duke will keep them from being labeled a disappointment - at least for now. Clemson, however, is most definitely a disappointment and continues to come up short, year-after-year. This year, the 7th seeded Tigers, who started 16-0 and at one point were ranked 10th in the country, lost to who we know is a pretty bad Michigan team to end their season early. This season is similar to last year, when they Tigers started 12-1 and were ranked as highly as #15, then limped to a 5 seed and lost to Villanova in the first round. Which was similar to the previous season, when they started 17-0, were ranked 14th, and then crashed and missed the NCAA tournament altogether. Which was similar to the previous season when they started 11-0 and didn't make the tournament. Seriously, I think it's time to just stop taking them seriously.
That's it for now. I head to New Jersey for two nights tomorrow, so I'm sure I'll be back writing one if not both of them. Stay tuned.
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