NCAA Basketball Preview - The Mountain West

With BYU heading for the weirder pastures of the West Coast Conference, Utah shipping out to the Pac-12, and TCU heading to the Big 12 via the Big East, the Mountain West is looking less and less recognizable.  BYU and Utah are both gone already (meaning the Mountain West is now Utah-less), with TCU heading out next year.  Boise State is already in place, and starting next season Fresno State, Hawaii (football only), and Nevada will jump on board to bring the MWC to 10 (at least for basketball, assuming Boise stays here for basketball and doesn't do something weird after the football team gets invited into the Big East).  It's all very confusing, but it boils down to trading TCU, Utah, and BYU for Boise, Hawaii (football only), Fresno, and Nevada.  Not exactly a great trade for the MWC, and this conference is already on the way down.  More than 2 bids would be fairly miraculous.

1.  NEW MEXICO LOBOS.  This team is going to be a monster.  Last year they won 22 games and just missed out on an NCAA bid, and this year they return basically their whole team including basically automatic MWC Player of the Year as long as he doesn't go crazy or get suspended or anything in Drew Gordon.  The only player they're missing off last year's squad is Dairese Gary, which is actually a big deal because he was there point guard and was all-conference last season, but they have a great nucleus back and plenty of options to take over the point, including Demetrius Walker, a combo guard who transferred from USC and was the main subject of the recent book about AAU ball.  Really though, assuming they get competent point guard play this should be a sweet 16 team.

2. UNLV RUNNIN' REBELS.  The Rebels lose Tre'Von Willis and Derrick Jasper and they will be missed, Willis especially, but UNLV has plenty coming back and anything less than an NCAA bid will be a big-time failure for first year coach Dave Rice.  Combo guard Oscar Bellfield is a potential stud, especially since he'll be playing more SG with Willis out plus the emergence of Anthony Marshall, and Chace Stanback is probably the best player in the conference outside of Drew Gordon and can do it all.  The teams biggest issue, and the real problem for them all year, will be in the frontcourt.  They were weak there last year as well and made due, but five of their six leading rebounders last year were perimeter players.  I'm predicting first round NCAA exit here.

NOTE:  This is an Aztec tramp stamp

3.  SAN DIEGO STATE AZTECS.  Last year the stars aligned for the Aztecs with several key players hitting their peak at the same time and it resulted in a very fun and likeable team and an appearance in the Sweet 16.  Now four starters are gone, including stud Kawhi Leonard who left early, but things aren't completely barren in San Diego - although it would be a rather large shocker if they made the NCAA Tournament again.  In typical MWC fashion, the main additions to the team come via transfer - Garrett Green from LSU, Deshawn Stephens from a JUCO, and Xavier Thames from Washington State.  None are instant superstars (like Gordon was for New Mexico) but all should be solid with potential.  Add that to the talent they have coming back, much of it from a reserve role of course, and they should be decent.  Remember this name:  LaBradford Franklin. 

4.  COLORADO STATE RAMS.   You know how when the Gophers were looking for a coach everybody was all like "Tim Miles blah blah blah" and mostly it was just because NDSU beat Monson's Gophers?  Well maybe he's pretty decent, because the Rams have gone from 0-16 in conference play a few years ago, to a CBI berth two seasons ago, to an NIT bid last year.  That may not sound all that great, but remember this is a CSU program that hasn't done shit since 2003.  This year could be tough because they lose their two leading scorers and front court starters, so it will be up to some reserves to step up - or this could be a breakout season for redshirt freshman center Chad Calcaterra, a name you probably recognize because he either spurned the Gophers or they spurned him, I don't remember.  And this is probably too many words about CSU already so I'll just say there's enough talent on the perimeter to get them to fourth and another probably NIT bid - tough to see an NCAA bid coming just yet.

5.  AIR FORCE FALCONS.  Air Force has gone from 0 conference wins, to one, and then jumped to six last season and thank god because while a super slow paced team that wins is kind of beautiful in a weird Betty White kind of way, a super slow paced terrible team is like spending time in a nursing home.  I don't remember where I was going with this.  Go Air Force!

7.  TCU HORNED FROGS.  TCU has something the two teams below them don't have, and that's a standout player and that's good enough for 7th place.  The Horned Frogs have Hank Thorns who led the country in assists at 7.0 per game and did it with an impressive 2.71 assist-to-turnover ratio, all while averaging double figures in points per game.  He's not much of a shooter, but he did notch 4 double-doubles last year of the points/assists variety which I'm going to assume led the nation.  Unfortunately TCU's actual best player, and Thorns back court mate, Ronnie Moss was suspended last year and transferred out, or this would have been a legitimately exciting and intriguing back court.  Oh well.  Not like anybody cares if it isn't football anyway.

7.  BOISE STATE COWBOYS.  If you're anything like me, and god help you if you are, you don't know dick about Boise State's basketball program because other than Utah State and Magnum Rolle nobody pays attention to the WAC.  According to what I read, they were a CBI team last year but are losing their top 4 scorers from last season and returning just one guy who played more than 18 minutes per game last season.  There's a bunch of blah blah newcomers, but really it's going to be a rough one for Boise.  They're stepping up in class conference-wise at the same time their team is taking a step backwards, but at least they aren't last.

8.  WYOMING COWBOYS.  In all my years of college basketball watching I'm almost positive I've never seen a Wyoming game. That's probably a good thing.  The good news is that they hired a new coach, Larry Shyatt, who was part of the mini-Florida dynasty that was going on.  The bad news is that when they hired him their best two players decided to split.  Basically they're now relying on a midget point guard, a guy who has had two knee surgeries in as many years, and Larry Nance's kid.  I don't think I'll be seeing them on TV any time soon. 

Other previews:
Big 12
ACC
Atlantic 10
Pac 12 
SEC 
C-USA

Mountain West College Basketball 2010 Preview

1.  San Diego State Aztecs.  I don't want to oversell a Mountain West team, because then I'd end up looking like some kind of jackass who pimps Dayton as a dynasty, but this Aztec team is loaded, and if you're looking for a final four sleeper from a non-BCS conference, look no further.  Kawhi Leonard is a complete stud, a potential NBA draft pick, and is top five amongst returnees in the conference in points, rebounds and steals and top 20 in blocks, assists, and field goal percentage.  Mean amongst boys, you might say, and he has his whole posse coming back with him.  You got his buddies down low in Malcolm Thomas, a double-digit scorer who was top 5 in rebounding, blocks, and FG% last year, and Billy White, another double-digit scorer who led the league in FG percentage at 59%.  And you get your starting back court back in double-figure scorer D.J. Gay (ha ha) and Chase Tapley.  Really the only thing they need is a true point guard (Gay is more of a combo) and a shooter.  Well, they signed a top point guard prospect in LaBradford Franklin, so really all they need is a shooter - if they need anything at all.  In case you can't tell, I'm high on SDSU this year.  Got 'em at 100-1, baby.  We goin' sizzla'.

2.  BYU Cougars.  Jimmer is back, and Jimmer is Jimmer, but he unfortunately loses his boy Tyler Haws to his weird mormon mission, what with the strange underwear and the weird supplementary bible works.  That's not to say Jimmer is on his own, because his third little buddy in the back court, Jackson Emery, is back, as is Noah Hartsock to man the lane.  The losses will hurt (along with Haws the Cougars also lose do-everything forward Jonathan Tavernari and starting center Chris Miles), but there is enough talent surrounding Jimmer that BYU should be dancing again this year, if dancing was allowed by the Mormon religion.  And by the way, Jimmer is totally a Utah/Mormon name.  My wife was raised mormon, and her family is bonkers.  She has cousins who named their kids Londyn, Brooklyn, Okland, Dagon, Presley, Daxton, Lindy, Maximus, and Braden.  I swear to god I'm not kidding.

3.  UNLV Runnin' Rebels.  The Rebels looked like the were going to be in great shape, getting all five starters back from last year's NCAA Tournament team, but then Tre'Von Willis choked some chick (that's frowned upon), Matt Shaw was booted after failing a drug test, and Kendall Wallace tore his ACL and is out for the year.  Ouch.  Luckily (for the team and Willis, not so much for the girl) Willis is only going to miss three games, and he'll be joined by Chace Stanback and Oscar Bellfield, as well as Derrick Jasper assuming he's back from his own knee injury.  That's enough to be near the top in the MWC but bad luck and dumb choices knock them down from loaded to merely good.

4.  New Mexico Lobos.  Usually when a program like New Mexico loses a couple of guys like Darington Hobson and Roman Martinez from a team that went 30-5 and reached the second round of the NCAA Tournament you can count on a down period to follow.  Luckily for Lobo fans, Steve Alford has them looking like the kind of team where a letdown still means an NCAA bid.  Stepping in for those two are Drew Gordon, the transfer from UCLA who played well in Westwood before heading to the desert, and Alex Kirk (who the Gophers were looking at at one point) who is the one of only two Rivals Top 150 recruit coming to the MWC (he's #116, the other is BYU's Kyle Collinsworth at #134).   It's not an even trade, of course, because Martinez and Hobson were do-it-all wings while Gordon and Kirk are post players, but it's the kind of influx of talent that will help, along with returning point guard Dairese Gary - particularly if Gordon has his head on straight.  Don't forget, he was a top 50 player as a freshman, and was averaging double-figures in points and 2 blocks per game last year.  He's still got the talent to be a star.

5.  Colorado State Rams.  Tim Miles has done a hell of a job, Travis Busch signing notwithstanding (and by the way, I heard he likes to hang out by himself in bars near the campus on Saturday mornings - true story), and he has the Rams solidly turned around from "shitbox" to "mediocre."  I don't know that they can turn the corner just yet, but there is some talent here.  Andy Ogide returns to man the paint for the Rams and he was top five in the league in both rebounding and field goal percentage, and Dorian Green had a very nice freshman season at point for CSU last year, averaging 12 points and 3 assists per game.  And don't forget this is where one-time Gopher PF target Chad Calcaterra landed.  He'll have a chance to contribute right away, but this team isn't quite ready to compete for an NCAA berth yet.  If only they had Travis Busch for one more year, that kind of hustle cures all ills.    

6.  Wyoming Cowboys.  The success (it's a relative term) of the Cowboys' season this year pretty much rests on the health of Afam Mujoeke's knee.  Two seasons ago Mujoeke won the MWC Freshman of the Year award, and then last year he was having a fine season averaging 17 points per game before he blew out his patella tendon, which sounds pretty terrible.  If he's back at full strength he'll join sophomore Desmar Jackson to give the Cowboys a nice one-two scoring punch, and make them viable enough that they will at least threaten to upset a team or two.  If he's not all the way back, it's going to be a long year in Laramie.  Or longer, at least.  I mean, I assume it's always a long year in Wyoming, what with all the long hours baling hay and milking cows before class and what not.

7.  Utah Utes.  This will be the last season for the Utes in the Mountain West, and it's probably about time to leave before they tarnish their legacy, because after being the dominant force in the conference since it's inception in 1999, winning five of the first seven league titles, they've fallen off, finishing better than 5th just once in the last five seasons and gaining just one NCAA berth.  That probably won't get much better this year.  Both of last year's two leading scorers are transferring (Carlon Brown to Colorado, Marshall Henderson to Texas Tech), and a host of bench fodder is leaving as well (missions and what have you) and the Utes will have a whole slew of new faces.  If some of those new guys turn out to be good guards Utah could finish higher than this because they do have a lot of size in 7-3 David Foster and 7-0 Jason Washburn, both of whom finished in the top five in blocked shots in the MWC with Foster finishing fourth nationally.  So they're big.  And probably slow since I assume the whole team is white.

8.  TCU Horned Frogs.  Well if we want to start with something nice, let's talk about TCU's back court because it's actually quite solid.  Ronnie Moss is an excellent all-around player who led the team in scoring (14.9 per game) and assists (5.9 per game, good for 1st in the conference and 9th nationally) and also chipped in with more than 3 rebounds and almost a steal per game.  He's not exactly a wizard with the jump shot (just 40% shooting last year) and he turns it over way too much (3.8 per game) but still - he's a heck of a player.  Joining him in the back court this year will be Hank Thorns, a transfer from Virginia Tech who had some limited success in his two years as a Hokie, hampered only by the fact that he can't shoot (30% from the field as a sophomore).  And speaking of can't shoot the third guard and second leading returning scorer, Greg Hill, shot just 41% last year, which actually makes him the marksman of the group.  So the guards are good but they can't shoot.  Now let me tell you all the good things about their front court players:  at least they aren't Air Force. 

9.  Air Force Falcons.  Remember when Air Force was kind of good for a minute there, using that slower-than-a-Vickers-Gunbus-offense?  They actually made the tournament in 2004 and 2006, but things have fallen off faster than Maverick after Goose died, and the Falcons have won just won conference game combined the last two seasons - lost that lovin' feeling indeed.  I'd love to sit here and make Top Gun/Fighter Jet jokes for another few sentences, but researching the Falcons makes me feel like Cougar after getting missile locked, and there's no Viper to be my wingman.  Great Balls of Fire!!

NCAA Basketball Preview: MOUNTAIN WEST

A very balanced conference over the last few years, albeit one that can't seem to do anything other than get eliminated in the first round of the NCAA tournament, will change this year with one dominant team and a whole bunch of question marks.  Also you can watch how I peter out at the end here, and if you hate these long-winded, stat and name filled previews you're in luck - I'm burned out.  The previews are going to be much less fact-intensive going forward.

1.  BYU.  The Cougars lose their best player in do everything swingman Lee Cummard, but return two other do everything types in swingman Jonathan Tavernari (16 pts/7rebs/2assist per game) and point guard Jimmer Fredette (16/3/4) along with two other starters, including guard Jackson Emery, who made the MWC's All-Defensive Team last year.  The Cougars have been a very efficient team, both offensively and defensively the last few years, and there is no reason to expect that to change.  BYU should be able to cruise to it's fourth straight Mountain West crown.  Also seriously yes, that guy's name is Jimmer.  Mormons make up some of the weirdest names. 


2.  SAN DIEGO STATE.  Nearly every contender in the MWC is hit hard by graduation, and the Aztecs are no different.  They drop over 50% of their scoring and lose four starters, but are my pick for #2 because they are bringing in some nice talent.  Malcolm Thomas and Tyrone Shelley, two former high school teammates as well as teammates of THE MAN Rico Tucker at Pepperdine give them two immediate scoring options -they were the Waves top two scorers two seasons ago and combined to average 28 points and 15 rebounds per game.  The Aztecs also welcome in a very solid recruiting class, highlighted by small forward Kawhi Leonard, a major get for the program as the #48th ranked prospect on Rivals150, and former Illinois big man Brian Carlwell. 

3.  UTAH.  The Utes lose their top four scorers from last year, including MWC player of the year Luke Nevill, but still return three starters including point guard Carlon Brown, who is an excellent all-around player and nearly notched a triple-double against Wyoming last season (15-9-9).  There are a bunch of intriguing newcomers as well, including two junior college players who ranked on JucoJunctions Top150 List (Rivals), and a freshman shooting guard in Marshall Henderson who can fill it up, going for over 40 three times this past season who turned down Gonzaga and Marquette to become a Ute.  Most intriguing are a pair of seven-footers; the 7-3 David Foster who returns from a Mormon mission, and 7-0 Jason Washburn, Rivals #90 before last season, which he ended up redshirting.

4.  UNLV.  Like SDSU, the Rebels lose over 50% of their scoring and will be relying quite a bit on newcomers, but ultimately their fate may rest in the hands of holdover Tre'Von Willis, a former transfer from Memphis and the team's leading returning scorer (11.4) and rebounder (4.3).  He can score, but can also be wildly inconsistent and shot better than 50% in only one of the team's final seven games and finished the year at just 38%.  The newcomers are highlighted by a couple of transfers - PG Derrick Jasper from Kentucky and combo forward Chace Stanback from UCLA.  Both were top 75 type recruits who, for one reason or another, didn't pan out at their original schools but still bring top tier talent.  They will be expected to start and be big contributors immediately.  Also incoming is Rivals #66 prospect for this year, shooting guard Anthony Marshall who could also see big minutes.


5.  NEW MEXICO.  Yet another team hit hard by graduation, the Lobos are losing their top three scorers, including All-MWC First Teamer Tony Dandridge, who was awesome.  The good news is that they have a lot of options at guard, including former Gopher commit for like a minute Nate Garth, as well as one-time Iowa commit Dairese Gary who followed Alford into the desert.  Add in a couple talented freshmen guards, their best returning player in small forward Roman Martinez, their second leading returning scorer and former top 100 recruit Phillip McDonald, and Junior College All-American wing Darrington Hobson, and the Lobos should end up being a pretty up-tempo team this year - a change from last year's 172nd tempo ranking.  The challenge will be finding someone to take over the frontcourt.


6.  WYOMING.  Maybe the team hit worst by graduation, the Cowboys lose three double-digit scorers including Brandon Ewing, one of the best player's in the school's history.  Wyoming will look to Afam Muojeke, the only returning scorer over 5.2 ppg, and a whole host of newcomers this year.  The two most interesting newcomers are a pair of opposites; a giant and a midget.  The giant comes from Auburn in the form of 7-2 (with a 7-5 wingspan) Boubacar Sylla, who suffered from foot problems and only played in four games for the Tigers.  Wyoming coach Heath Schroyer claims he's not a project or a stiff, but we shall see.  The little midget is 5-9 point guard JayDee Luster, a transfer from New Mexico State, who was ranked the #19 player in the state of California his senior year of high school and was being recruited by schools like Florida and Wake Forest before hurting his ankle and ending up at NMSU.  


7.  TCU.  Jesus, two and 2/3rds conferences done and I'm already getting burned out.  Time to make these shorter.  Whatever happened to Brandon Smith?  Does anybody know?  After he transferred to TCU, he just never showed up.  I even checked out a TCU message board at some point last year, and they had no idea over there either.  Maybe he's actually Devron Bostick in the witness protection program or some such, or like a Verbal Kint/Kaiser Soyze kind of thing.  Makes a lot of sense.


8.  COLORADO STATE.  Last season I predicted the Gophers would lose when they traveled into Colorado to play CSU.  I was wrong, but not by much.  I also thought the Rams would be a decent team.  I was wrong again.  They won just 9 games all year, mainly because their stud Marcus Walker shot just 41%.  He's gone now, but your boyfriend and former NDSU coach Tim Miles has the team moving in the right direction, bringing in a nice recruiting class including big man Trevor Williams, who the Gophers showed interest in at one time.  He also has already grabbed Chad Calcaterra for 2010, no if only he could find another weiner guard like Ben Woodside his master plan would be complete. 


9.  AIR FORCE.  Triple-option in hoops?  Only if the options are slow, slower, and slowest.  The Falcons are perennially one of the slowest (read:  boringest) teams in all of NCAA basketball.  The past five years they have been 2nd, 3rd, 6th, 4th, and 6th in slowest tempo.  That shtick was working well a few years ago when they were good, but that coach is gone and now the players are terrible and the team is terrible.  They ranked last in, well, almost everything last season and grabbed not a single conference win.  Oh, and four of their "best" players from last year are long gone.  They're like the Fordham of the Rockies.  



I think those got a lot better towards the end there.  Plus, as the kind folks from the Xavier board pointed out, I don't really know what I'm talking about anyway.  Expect future conference previews, and oh yes, I don't plan to quit, to contain less facts, less research, and more nonsense.  I can only believe this is an improvement.


Other Previews:
Conference USA
Atlantic 10