Tournament Talk. Stupid NIT.

I am back from Florida now and it sucks.  I'd much rather be there than here what with their beaches, fishing (I caught a snook!), ocean life (saw many dolphins, a couple of manatees, almost stepped on a stingray, and found a baby crab to show my kids), happy hour every day, the ocean, spring break chicks in bikinis who invite me into their bungalow to play drinking games and give me jello shots (actually happened!), fresh seafood, Yuengling evewhere, awesome sunsets and sunrises, the ocean, and consequence-less drinking.  I won't dwell on how awesome Florida is because it should be pretty self-evident, but if you ever have a choice to be on Estero Island or Sanibel Island rather than being in stupid Minnesota you should totally do it. 

One piece of advice I will give, is if you love seafood like I do go to the Farmer's Market (Fridays) or drive just over to the bridge to one of the fish markets.  Even though it's so abundant in the gulf it's also really expensive - a typical grouper dinner is 20-25 bucks while a pound of shrimp appetizer is up to $15.  At the markets you can get the grouper for about $20 a pound and the shrimp for a lot cheaper as well.  If you know how to cook (and I do) and like to (and I do) you can get out of there a lot cheaper considering two pounds of grouper is about 8 portions, so you're only paying like $5 per meal instead of $25.  I made an awesome almond-crusted grouper and an almost as good chili-lime preparation, and made some butter poached shrimp seasoned with this local seasoning blend that thsi one dude who my parents had try them said they were the best shrimp he had all week and he had some every day for a month.  So yeah, I rock.  And I got to de-head the shrimp, which is something I'd never done before.  That's right, manly enough to rip the head off a shrimp and talented enough to cook a gourmet dinner.  Settle down ladies, I'm taken.

Lots of basketball to catch up on, so we might as well get to it.

First, Gopher thoughts: 

-  Major bummer the Gophers missed the tournament, but not at all unexpected.  They were essentially a single win away from getting in most likely, and it wouldn't have mattered when it happened.  I think if you take any single one of their losses and turned it into a win the Gophers get in the tournament.  Not having Dre Hollins for a couple of those losses sucked and who knows how much the committee looked at that and if it even would have mattered, but their name wasn't called, it would have been an upset if it had been, and we move on to the prestigious NIT.

-  Despite missing the big tournament, I still consider this season a relative success since I didn't really plan on them making the tournament anyway (I'll delve further into a season recap after the NIT).  They won a couple of games I normally wouldn't have thought they'd win, and competed well against teams I thought would blow them out.  Despite a little regression by Austin Hollins, in general the players improved quite a bit from last year to this year, particularly the big men, and Dre Mathieu emerged as the type of player who should be on preseason all Big-10 lists.  Even somebody who looked completely worthless in Joey King emerged to show he could end up being a decent big 10 player. 

-  Recruiting has been more interesting, if not any better.  If you follow it you know how often the Gophers made top 5, top 3 lists and were mentioned as being in contention for a whole lot of highly ranked players.  They pretty much failed to land any, however, which an optimist could chalk up to the late start Pitino got.  I am that optimist.  Looking forward to seeing what he can do with the class of 2015.  If he doesn't land any high level talent in that class, then we can talk.

-  NC State getting in is, yes, a pretty big surprise and yes, I would have thought the Gophers would get in over the Wolfpack but it's not really worth bitching about.  If not NC State it would have been SMU.  If not SMU it would have been Green Bay or Ole Miss or Cal or somebody like that.  The Gophers just weren't there.

-  Their NIT bracket is interesting, I guess.  The first game against High Point is like, shoot me in the face, but a second rounder against either St. Mary's or Utah should be pretty fun.  Then, if they make it, a game against Southern Miss would be interesting, although if they end up against Missouri the Gophers will get destroyed, but it'd be fun to watch their guards (Jabari Brown and Jordan Clarkson who each average over 17.5 points per game) in person, if that game would be at The Barn.  I really don't know how that works.

-  And I don't want to hear that a deep NIT run is more valuable/important than a first round NCAA exit. It's not, and anyone saying so is rationalizing, a pollyanna fan, or a complete idiot.  That being said, a deep NIT run can be fun and entertaining and sure, may even help the team a bit for next season, so let's try to enjoy this even though I'll completely ignore any Gopher NIT game that clashes with any NCAA Tournament game. 

Speaking of, now onto to general NCAA tournament things:

-  The first thing I hate is Kansas and Florida in the same region, and I hated it because it popped up right away in the first region.  But then I thought more and looked more and I think it might have saved me from making the terrible mistake of putting the Jayhawks in the Final Four.  Without Embiid they're weaker inside, and in the second round they'll play New Mexico (who will kill Stanford) and their two headed giant monster of Cameron Bairstow and Alex Kirk.  New Mexico could totally beat an Embiid-less Kansas, and I'm calling it now - they will. 

-  The second thing I hated was the potential round 2 match-up for Iowa State in North Carolina.  When you're whole bit is to play fast and loose and basically try to outscore someone, the last thing you want to see is somebody who might be better at that style than you, and that's how the Heels look compared to the Cyclones (remember, I'm a pretty big Cyclone fan).  Good news for the Cyclones is that UNC plays insanely fast, but they have struggled offensively at times this year.  The bad news is that they've also beaten Michigan State and Louisville.  As a fan of circus ball, and if  you read this blog you know I love circus ball, as scary as this match-up is for ISU I really hope it happens - it would be circus ball galore.  They couldn't make this over/under number high enough for me to not take the over.

-  I had four teams in mind as my Final Four, as I usually do, prior to bracket release.  Unlike usual, they actually are in three different brackets, so I only have to figure out what to do with the West.  I like the idea of Ok State knocking off Arizona, but if that happens I basically have to take either OK State or San Diego State all the way to the Final Four, because there's no way anybody is making it out of that bottom bracket.  I am a believer in Wisconsin, but the flame out too often to trust, so it's either Ok State, SDSU, or don't pick the upset and go with Zona.  I don't know yet, but I'll let you know what I decide.  Don't act like you don't care.

-  The other place where I'm really having trouble is in the bottom half of the South.  I already said I have New Mexico beating Kansas, but I don't feel really confident in their ability to make the elite 8, which means my choice is pretty much Ohio State or Syracuse.  If Syracuse's late season plunge hadn't been so drastic and they still ended up as a 3 somehow that would have been perfect, but I'm not a big believer in the Orange right now.  But Ohio State can't shoot, so as much as I think Syracuse is open to upset I don't think the Buckeyes are the team to do it.  So basically I don't know what to do.  I think New Mexico could do it, but I also know that's not how you win brackets.  I'll probably end up going with Syracuse.  Lucky draw for them, considering neither Western Michigan nor Ohio State can shoot for shit.  Could get interesting if Dayton gets by the Buckeyes though, but they aren't really anything special.  Lucky break for the Cuse.

-  Although SWAC Champion Texas Southern is horrible, Aaric Murray could make things interesting.  If you remember, Murray was a hot shot recruit who ended up choosing his hometown LaSalle, and averaged 12 and 7 and then 15 and 8 his two years there before, if I remember, a rather ugly transfer to West Virginia.  After a rough year there (averaged 9 and 6) he somehow got another year of eligibility for, you can probably guess, Texas Southern.  Murray averaged 21 and 8 against the terrible SWAC competition, but at 6-10, 245 lbs. with some serious offensive skills (not to mention 2.5 blocks per game) he could be a March hero.  Here are the "real" teams they've played this year and Murray's results:

• Miami:  16pts, 1 reb (foul trouble)
• Texas Tech:  8pts, 4 rebs (foul trouble)
• Stanford: 28 pts, 5 rebs
• Tulsa:  30 pts, 6 rebs
• Temple:  48 pts, 8 reb

Pretty nice numbers.  Ok well his rebounding isn't that great and actually his shooting percentages in those games aren't very pretty and he's awfully inefficient for someone with his size and skill but whatever.  It's a story, man.  Or more like a narrative I just started running with and couldn't pull out.  Now they just have to get by Cal Poly, aka Shane Schilling U.  Then he can destroy Wichita.  Probably.

- Very little controversy it seems this year, which is a new thing.  What are the beefs?  SMU out, Louisville a 4 seed, and a loaded region for Wichita?  Pretty low on the outrage meter.  It's nice, because usually people bitch a whole lot more.

-  Really, this is such a fun bracket.  Can team's build on defense but with trouble scoring like Cincinnati, Ohio State, San Diego State, Virginia, and St. Louis have success?  How about high flyers like the aforementioned Iowa State and UNC as well as BYU, VCU, Oklahoma, and Iowa who get up and down the court in a hurry?  There are tested and experienced smaller conference teams like Wichita State and Harvard, and super young teams like Kentucky and Kansas.  New Mexico State is the biggest team in the country by kenpom's Effective Height metric, and three of the five most experienced teams in the entire country made the field (Tex Southern #1, NC Central #4, and Mercer #5).  Then there are teams with guys who could pull a Danny Manning/John Wallace in Oklahoma State, UCONN, and Creighton.  I'm excited every year, but somehow this year seems better, even though there is no Chicago trip :sadface:.

- First pass - Final Four: Florida, Louisville, Arizona, Michigan State.  Other Elite 8s: Syracuse, Creighton, Michigan, UCONN. 

-  Lastly, it could change but I'm taking Florida as my national champion, and yes I realize that's probably going to be a popular pick but I can't help it if this year the popular pick is also the correct pick.  They play great defense and they can play in an uptempo game or a slow down game so they aren't vulnerable to any particular style of play.  They have a guy in Michael Frazier who could win a game by himself by shooting threes, a smart experienced point guard in Scottie Wilbekin, and a mish mash of athletic big men who can pass and are comfortable anywhere on the floor and look like NFL tight ends.  I love having a bunch of exchangeable players who can all do the same things, and Florida has that in spades with Will Yeguette, Dorian Finney-Smith, Casey Prather, Chris Walker, and Patric Young.  Plus they have Billy Donovan.  I know they're the #1 overall seed so it's not exactly going out on a limb, but who is going to beat these guys? I would absolutely love to see a Florida/Louisville game.

Be back later with a preview of the big NIT tilt on Tuesday.  Looking super forward to researching High Point.  Don't act like you ain't all jelly.

New Mexico, Day 2

Oh my god you guys I am so full I can barely drink all this beer.  For dinner we went to this little Mexican dive called El Patio and wow was it good.  I got the tacos and ordered a bowl of the green chile stew since that's like the #1 specialty of New Mexico and it did not disappoint.  Green chiles, pork, pinto beans, and potatoes in a broth that was insanely flavorful.  So, so, so good.  You really need to travel to New Mexico to try it.  If you don't you're kind of a failure as a human.

-  Some weird things I saw in New Mexico today:

1. An entire aisle of pinatas in Walmart
2. An electronics/movies store with a complete section dedicated to VHS
3. A flyer taped to a pole advertising "Mechanical Bull for Rent" with a phone number
4. A vending machine for nothing but beef jerky

All of that was awesome.  Not awesome is the cell service in this town.  You will just lose service for like an hour or two randomly, then all of a sudden your phone will blow up with texts and you'll think you're all popular but it turns out those texts are from a two hour period.  My co-worker thinks it's because of all the military bases around here and they have cell phone jammers.  I'm not sure if that's true or how much he actually believes it, but we're running with it.  So hey, there are a lot of military bases in Albuquerque that send out cell phone jamming frequencies.  Be warned when you come here to get that sweet green chile stew.

-  Basically everybody I told I was going to New Mexico made a Breaking Bad joke, which makes sense since Breaking Bad is better than anything else you watch and what else are you going to joke about when New Mexico comes up?  One of my co-workers asked our shuttle driver about the Breaking Bad houses and I actually thought he might be all annoyed but he was super proud of the show being shot there and told us how it was such a big thing for the city.  So he told us where a bunch of them were.  Tonight we checked out Jesse and Jane's place.

Sup, bitch?

-  I finally watched Dawger's favorite movie Snatch and $nake's favorite movie Super Troopers last week.  I enjoyed them both, but I suspect both get better upon multiple viewings.  Snatch because you aren't missing half the joke's trying to figure out what the previous line was, and Super Troopers because it's just one of those movies that gets funnier over time.  I'd recommend them both to people, but I'm pretty sure I'm the last one to see either of them.

-  Somebody recently asked me for my opinion of Wichita State, sorry I can't remember who because I generally don't pay attention when people talk, and I think they're definitely a good team no doubt, but it's obviously tough to figure out how good.  30-0 is 30-0, and I tend to think they're better than that St. Joe's team (Jameer Nelson/Delonte West) from a while back who went undefeated through the A-10, and they made the Elite 8 (might have been Sweet 16, not 100% and don't want to bother to look it up).  Saying I think Wichita State is better than that team, and they already have a handful of guys with Final Four experience, it saying quite a bit.

But Snacks made a great point to me today.  Let's say the latest bracketology on ESPN is at least a close approximation of what actually gets pulled in the tournament and Wichita State is a one seed.  In the second round then they'd face either Stanford or Kansas State (or similar team), both of whom would be the best team the Shockers have faced since DECEMBER 14, and the second or third best team they've seen the entire season depending on your opinion of BYU.  And then the next round, and the next round, and the next round and all the way through they'll be facing teams so much better than anything they've seen with much more pressure and less time to prepare.  Wichita's strength of schedule is awful and their non-conference wasn't anything special either.  Man that is a ton of pressure.  I don't think I can take them any further than the Sweet 16.  Not like New Mexico, who is clear Final Four material.

-  Just went down to the bar to get a double Maker's because I'm too full for beer.  These two dopes get on the elevator with me and start laughing about how they're so wasted and they need to email each others' boss to cover their ass.  Guess what?  They don't remember they have to hit the button for the floor.  I'm on the top floor because I'm awesome and then they realize they never hit their buttons so they hit the five and seven and ended up spending like, 30 extra seconds in the elevator.  Way to go, amateurs.

-  One of the main reasons I'm out here is to look at this entertainment store called Hastings and maaaaaaaaaaaaaaaan we need to get one in Minnesota.  It's like a Best Buy/Barnes and Noble/Shinders/Spencer's/Toys R Us all in one.  It's awesome.  Plus they buy and sell used stuff and even rent movies for 49 cents a day.  I could probably spend all day in one.  I have to find a way to make this happen.

-  You know that thing called the Peter Principle which says that as people excel in their roles they keep getting promoted until all of a sudden you have a bunch of people in roles they aren't qualified for?  Just google it I don't want to explain.  Well it generally applies to the working world but it exists in college basketball too.  I mean to do a whole big post on this (I'm currently reading Dean Oliver's Basketball on Paper which is excellent and you should read it so my advanced stats brain is like a hamster on blue meth) but exhibit A is the terrible Glenn Robinson III.  He was amazingly efficient last year playing his role and using a small amount of possessions for the Wolverines.  This year he's using way more possessions but every single metric and is still a terrible rebounder.  His raw numbers are in line with what he did last year, but he's really regressed if you look deeper.  Definitely not ready for/capable of the more increased role. 

I actually thought this same thing would apply to Austin Hollins, but really it doesn't.  His overall offensive rating is down a bit, but not all that much, and his rebounding numbers are far better this season.  Everything else is right around the same but with assist rate a tick down and turnover rate a tick up.  And here's a fun fact I never realized, he's shooting a career high 55% on two-pointers this year, which is a career high and a huge improvement from last year (48%).  Yeah he's struggling from three but that's amplified because the team lacks quality shooters, and he's actually taking fewer of them this year (percentage wise).  Really, I guess, for those that keep saying he's having a horrible year or is a disappointing senior shouldn't play so much (gopherhole -> hi!), you're wrong.

- One thing I forgot to mention about the Pit is how the people don't get up for you.  Like they'll stand on damn near every possession (no joke) but if you get up to go to the bathroom or go get a souvenir or food or anything during a timeout they don't stand up to let you out.  Every other arena I've ever been to the people get up to give you room to walk, but at the Pit they just do that thing where they turn their legs to the side and it sucks for everyone.  And this wasn't just one group of people, it was everywhere.  It struck me as very odd, especially because these people seemed to live for standing up.

-  I think that'll do it.  So tired and full of delicious green chile stew.   I kind of want some more.

There's a New Mexico now?

This was a long day.  I flew to New Mexico today, which included a 4-hour layover in Denver.  I finally get to my room, and see the Gophers are actually leading at halftime and have scored 50 points, which was weird.  Then I look and see Charles Buggs had 11 of them.  Even weirder.  I tried to watch some of the game on the btn2go thing but the internet here sucks.  Then I had tickets to the New Mexico/Utah State game at The Pit and we had to leave, and since the Pit is underground there's no cell service really and last I saw the Gophers were up 6 with 2:30 or so left, a perfect place to blow a game.  Not until after we left did I get to find out they actually won.  Shocker.

Thoughts on the game, looking only at the box score since I barely saw any of it:

-  Obviously the Buggs thing is like WTF.  More important than the 13 points is he didn't turn it over.  This Buggs thing is something I'm going to have to go back and watch the first half.  I also see Oto didn't see the floor, and I have no clue if this was expected or an injury or if he was just straight benched (twitter tells me it was a knee injury), but it sounds like Buggs looked great so that's pretty odd but excellent news.

-  Obviously it's great to see the much maligned Austin Hollins have a breakout game (and not just because he's on my Big 10 Fantasy team and we're in the playoffs).  8-10 from the floor overall and 4-6 from three are great, and maybe even better was the 7-7 from the line.  The offense must have been clicking like crazy looking at their shooting numbers of 61%/58%/83%.  The 1.32 points per possession have to be a season high for this team, and with assists on 63% of their made buckets it must have looked awfully good.  Bummed to have missed it.

-  The defense, of course, was brutal again, allowing 1.24 points per possession.  Iowa is at 1.21 for the season, so even playing a great offense like the Hawkeyes the Gophers still managed to make them look better than normal.  Turnovers were ugly again as well at 19.4% of possessions, but you know what?  In the end, it only really matters if you outscore your opponent, and the Gophers did, so I'm happy.  I haven't stopped to think what this means for their NCAA hopes, but it most certainly is a nice boost.

-  So anyway I got to see The Pit today and it was awesome.  It goes straight down from street level to where the playing surface is actually way underground, thus the nickname.  It's about as loud as I've ever heard any place.  The Barn can certainly get there at its peak, but the New Mexico fans are just loud the entire game.  If things are going well, they're loud.  If things are going poorly, they're louder.  The only place I can remember watching a game that kept that constant level of noise was Iowa State's Hilton Coliseum and that was back when I went when they were playing #1 Kansas, this was just against Utah State.  The seats are really packed low to the ground and it has a really low ceiling so it just amplifies the noise.  The other noticeable thing was everybody, I mean everybdoy, was in Lobo gear.  Every old person, every kid, and I think every little girl was in a Lobo cheerleader outfit.  It was pretty neat.  The only place I remember seeing it like that was when I went to a game at Utah State.  Really, really cool place to see a game and I'm glad I got to go in my lifetime.

-  As for the team, New Mexico won by 9 and I was impressed by them.  They won 67-58 despite shooting just 11-21 from the free throw line and they're going to be tough in March.  They have this inside combo of Cameron Bairstow (6-9, 250 lbs) and Alex Kirk (7-0, 245 lbs) who just dominate their offense.  Both can step out and hit a mid-range jumper and both are really good passers from the high post and they just play really well together.  They are also both exceptionally good at screening off their man when a guard drives.  Like if they're being fronted in the post and a guard drives baseline they'll just box their man out to give the guard an easy lay-up.  Really underrated skill.   Oh, and they also have Kendall Williams who averages 17pts and 5 assists per game, plus a bunch of shooters to surround those guys with.  They can't defend the three for shit and Preston Medlin went 4-5 tonight because those bigs don't come out far enough on a pick and roll, but I'm a Lobo fan.  Probably because it was so fun and they actually aren't very good but whatevs.

-  So yeah I had a four hour layover at the Denver airport today.  You know what they have in Denver?  A shit load of really great beer.  My favorites were the Upslope Brown Ale and the Oskar Blues Imperial Red, but really they were all good.  They were also really strong, so yada yada yada, I slept the entire flight into Albuquerque.

-  There was this one lady having lunch with her friend and they were sitting next to me at the airport bar and I couldn't help but notice how much I wanted to murder her.  First she wanted to order one of their fancy cocktails, but didn't want any alcohol.  So the server said they could use coke or something and she turned that down and then something else and she turned that down until finally they agreed on Sprite.  Then she wanted a small.  They only come in one size, but she haggled and begged and harassed until she got a smaller one.  Then she ordered the veggie burger with nothing on it and wanted a plain bun instead of a pretzel bun, which she asked her friend, "what's a pretzel bun."  Everything about her enraged me.  Then when she got up to leave, of course she had brought a pillow for the plane.  Oof.  Good luck with all that some guy probably.

-  Shabazz Muhammad had 20 points tonight?  I told you dorks he was awesome.

-  Since the hotel is so close to the University of New Mexico they had a free shuttle to go to the game.  The guy started talking basketball with me and mentioned how The Mountain West had the son of the first NBA dunk contest winner.  I said, "Yeah Larry Nance right?"  And he said "yes" and then I said, "he just blew out his knee didn't he" and the guy was like "wow you much really watch a lot of college basketball" and I was both embarrassed and proud.  But it made him like me so on the way back from the game I was able to get him to stop at a store for me so I could grab a six pack (went with Bud Light Platinum - don't judge me I've had a lot of heavy beer today and don't have a bottle opener - not all that bad, actually) so that was cool.  Pretty sure they aren't supposed to do that or at least that's what I'm telling myself so I feel cool. 

-  Dinner tonight sucked.  We got back to the hotel so late and it was such a long day I just went with room service.  Decided to go with the New York strip encrusted with red chile since that's supposed to be a New Mexico specialty, and also because their best known for their Mexican and I'm pretty sure we'll be eating a lot of that the next two days and I don't want to overload because of my tum tum.  Anyway it was horrible.  Fatty steak, over cooked, and the chile sauce was pretty tasteless with very little spice.  The herbed fingerling potatoes were mushy and I think the only herb they used was butter, and the spinach was just blech.  I know I shouldn't expect much at a hotel, but I didn't expect total crap.  Looking forward to crushing some good meals the next two days - you know I'll tell you about it.

-  One thing that never ceases to baffle me is how guys who were terrible shooters/scorers in college can suddenly thrive in the NBA.  Kendall Marshall is averaging 10.1ppg this year for the Lakers and shooting 47% from three.  He never broke 9ppg or 40% shooting in his two years at North Carolina.  It's not like he's been around forever either, it's just his second year in the NBA.  Michael Carter-Williams is averaging 17ppg for the Sixers this year, and he was a terrible scorer for Syracuse.  I guess he's actually a terrible shooter still as his percentages still suck, but it's just weird to see him scoring that much.  I just saw Kendall Marshall on ESPN doing a fancy swoopy woopy lay-up thing and there's no way he could have pulled that off at UNC and that's why I wrote this part.  Thank you for asking. 

-   I really need some sort of locking device on my computer that keeps me from playing online craps.  Anyway, I'm pretty wiped out from the long day so I'm done here now.  Hopefully I get really drunk at least once in the next two days and write some stupid crap.

Welcome Back to the NCAA Tournament

Well the Gophers are back in the NCAA Tournament and I gotta say despite everything else it feels damn good.  I'm also pretty pleased with the 11 seed, because it keeps the Gophers away from the #1s and #2s as long as possible, although a possible second round match-up with Florida would probably be every bit the bloodbath you'd see against a #1 or #2.  I'll be back with a preview of UCLA on Wednesday night (and then will go radio silent (except twitter) until the next week as we take our annual trip to Chicago to watch all the games from the Dayton Bar with Bogart.)  I've also been informed that the Dayton Bar is also an Ole Miss bar so I'm looking forward to watching them hopefully beat the Badgers.

Anyway, here are the toughest things I'm struggling with as a fill out my bracket:

1)  Florida or Georgetown?  There were three teams I wanted to put in the final four for sure:  Louisville, Florida, or Georgetown.  Unfortunately, now I can't do that and need to make a choice between the Gators and Hoyas since they'd play in the Sweet 16 if everything holds.  I love Florida because they have so many weapons and can score inside or out, and they compliment that with great defense.  Georgetown is also an amazing defensive team, and they have Big East Player of the Year Otto Porter who is good enough to carry that offense on his back a la John Wallace or Kemba Walker.  I hate that I have to choose, but I'm going with the Gators.

2)  What do do with Wisconsin.  I hate this.  I was all set to have both Wisconsin (because I hate them) and Kansas State (because they, and Bruce Weber, suck) to lose in the first round, but it all broke wrong.  Wisconsin gets an Ole Miss team who I don't think can compete with them, and Kansas State gets the play-in winner of LaSalle and Boise State, neither of whom is very good at all.  I almost have to take K-State and Wisconsin to both win their first round match-up, and if that happens there's no way K-State can beat the Badgers because Ryan can coach circles around Weber and the Wildcats are perfectly undisciplined enough to fall right into Wisconsin's traps.  So I have Wisconsin in the Sweet 16.  Feels really wrong and icky and dirty, but since they're always the luckiest team in America you can't rule it out.  I'm still rooting against them though.  If you don't it means you hate America.

3)  Who comes out of the West?  In every other region it's come down to one or two difficult decisions between teams I think are good enough to make the Final Four, while in the West I'm decided who is least flawed among the contenders.  Gonzaga and New Mexico are good teams no doubt, but neither has been tested as often or as consistently.  Both have some good non-conference wins of course but Gonzaga ran through a pretty crappy conference and although New Mexico played in a good MWC I just don't know if I'm buying it.  That leaves Ohio State, about whom there are no questions regarding having been tested, but unless their offense continues to be about more than DeShaun Thomas they're going to struggle.  If anything wacky happens I'm betting it's in this region, because there are some really weak teams for their seed (Arizona, K-State, Wisco, etc.).  Right now I'm going to buy the Buckeyes.  The team's offense is coming together with Thomas finding plenty of help, the defense is top-notch as usual, and the coaching is solid.

4)  Can Louisville Survive?  I think the Cardinals are the best team in the NCAA and my pick to win it all, but holy hell is the Midwest Region a bitch.  I consider Oklahoma State, St. Louis, and Michigan State as dark horse Final Four candidates and sure enough, they're all here.  The only real saving grace is that Duke is the #2 here and Duke sucks so at least they catch a break there.  Even some of the really high seeds (#12 Oregon, #14 Valparaiso) are pretty dangerous.  Whoever gets out of this region is going to have to have done some seriously good work.  Luckily Louisville hits my check list - come in on a high note (not necessarily a conference tournament victory but just playing well), good guards who can make free throws, great defense, and a team who can shoot without being dependent on the 3.  So yeah, despite the tough region Louisville is my champ.

5)  Who upsets Kansas?  I know Kansas has kind of shed that choker label, what with the two Final Fours since 2008 and all, but there's no way this version of Kansas is Final Four bound so the question becomes where do they get bounced?  I'm betting they don't get out of the first weekend with North Carolina knocking them out as one of the toughest 8 seeds I can remember.  I know Carolina has been talked about as being "down" this year and maybe they are with 10 losses, but do you realize their worst loss this year was to Texas?  And after that their worst loss was to Butler?  The rest are 3 losses to Miami, 2 to Duke, and one each to Indiana, Virginia, and NC State which means the Heels don't have a single loss to a team outside of kenpom's top 100 teams.  They're probably a little too perimeter dependent to make a significant run, but they should dispatch Villanova with ease and then in a one-time game against Kansas?  It could happen, kids, it could happen.

6)  How good is Miami? That's an important question, because I don't believe in Indiana and I don't believe in Marquette, which means it's either Miami or Syracuse coming out of the East for me.  I do expect Syracuse to beat the Hoosiers and face the Canes with a Final Four berth on the line, so it becomes a matter if I think Miami is good enough to handle the Cuse.  As it turns out, I think they are.  They're experienced enough to not get rattled and they have the guard play needed to break down the Orange's zone with four guys who are lights out from three, and they play excellent defense, rebound well, and come in off an ACC Tournament Championship.  Their free throw shooting is a bit suspect, but otherwise Miami is another team who looks really, really good and I have them in my Final Four.

That's it for now, back later with a Gophers/UCLA preview.

What did we Learn from the Marathon?

Unfortunately I couldn't make it to the Gophers latest butt whooping of Toledo but that doesn't stop me from having a couple of quick thoughts on the team and yes it feels a bit weird to have concerns about a team that's 2-0 with wins by 36 and 26 but here we are.  I have 3.

1.  I want to know what's going on with Trevor Mbakwe.  His line looked better in this Toledo game (6 pts - 7 boards - 2 blks) but he still only played 14 minutes which is the same number of minutes he played in the game against American.  Is he still hurt?  Is this some sort of punishment?  I'd really like to know.

2.  Nineteen turnovers against Toledo?  Gross.  Loyola-Illinois, who is terrible, turned it over just 15 times against Toledo.

3.  Is Andre Hollins ok?  Maybe all the expectations are getting to him and he's pressing a bit (2-15 shooting so far, 4 TOs vs. 1 assist vs. Toledo) or maybe he's got something else going on in his head that's hurting his concentration (the shooting, plus five missed free throws already this year vs. just nine all of last season).

 It's early and the team is winning, but all three of these need to get figured out before they start playing real games or they're going to be in trouble.  This Thursday's game against Tennessee State is a losable game, so they may as well start playing better ASAP.  The defense and rebounding have been absolutely outstanding, however, and that's a very good sign even against this level of competition.  Small sample size and all, but kenpom rates the Gophers as the 8th best defensive team in the country statistically (includes rebounding) and that does take quality of competition into account (for example, American shot 24% against the Gophers and 53% in their next game against Quinnipiac - that bodes well for the Gophers). 

Also, in case you were unaware somehow, ESPN just did a 24-hour college basketball marathon.  Thanks to a flexible work environment that allows working from home and the miracle of internet access I was able to take in a decent amount of it.  Here's what I thought was worth noting.

1.  I watched the first half of Youngstown/Georgia (not part of the marathon) and figured Georgia's first half performance (3-24 shooting) would be the ugliest thing I saw all week, but I was wrong because West Virginia looked absolutely god awful in getting destroyed by Gonzaga.  The Bulldogs also looked pretty good and definitely had something to do with it, but WVU just got destroyed on every level.  Gonzaga had open shot after open shot (52% Shooting, 56% from 3) while WVU just threw up bricks (shot 27%, 11% from 3) and I saw at least two times in the first half where a Mountaineer 3-point attempt hit the backboard before it hit the rim.  I'm sure WVU will end up being not this terrible since they're relying on three transfers to pretty much carry the team this year and that always seems to take a while to gel, but that was one of the ugliest performances I can remember watching from a team that was supposed to at least be in the mix for an at-large bid since every Gopher game ever.

2. Kendall Williams (New Mexico) is a stud PG.  I didn't stay up late enough to watch this one after WVU put me to sleep, but Williams put up a line of 17 pts - 6 rebs - 7 assists - 0 turnovers.  Nice. 

3.  The Gophers could have used Siyani Chambers.  The freshman point guard from Hopkins ended up at Harvard because that was basically the only school that recruited him and oh my did he look good against UMass, nearly leading the Crimson to a big upset playing all 40 minutes and finishing with 14 pts, 5 rebs, and 7 assists to just 1 turnover and even more impressive than the stats was just watching him.  He completely controlled the game when Harvard had the ball (his defense, on the other hand, was pretty atrocious).  It got to the point where UMass won the game by doing everything possible to keep the ball out of his hands when they ran their press and then the Harvard dopes turned it over twice in the final minute leading to a pretty surprising comeback win for the Minutemen when it looked like this game was in the bag for Harvard.  Anyway, this kids poise and ability to run an offense was shocking considering it was just his second game ever.  I know we think we're in good shape with Andre Hollins, but I gotta say this looks like a whiff for Tubby (assuming he figures out  the defense thing).

4. The Horizon race should be pretty good this year.  Valpo killed Northern Illinois (not like that's hard) and Detroit was giving it to St. John's pretty good before they fell apart.  I could see either team winning a game or two in the NCAA Tournament.  Of course seeing as how those two teams are head and shoulders above the rest of the conference it probably means we can expect Cleveland State or something to get the auto-bid.

5.  I thought this might be the worst version of Xavier we've seen in a very long time.  Turns out it looks like this might be the worst version of Butler we've seen in a long time.  I'm interested to see how this turns out with Brad Stevens if Butler bombs again.  I realize he's built up all kinds of leeway with the back-to-back Finals runs, but the last couple of years have been really bad (if I'm right about this year) and if Butler doesn't get back to the tournament soon he's going to go from being known as a wunderkind to just another guy at a small school.  He's already been replaced by Shaka Smart as the small school program builder who doesn't bolt du juor and with Tim Miles and John Groce (among others) taking advantage of March runs to move up in the world I wonder if Stevens has already blown his chance.  Considering he was born in Indiana and never left he might not even care, which is good because soon he might not have a choice.

6. Michigan State and Kansas are going to be just fine.  Not that there was ever much doubt, but both teams lost significant, and I mean significant, players from last season so there was part of me that wondered if they'd struggle but both looked very good in Michigan State's 67-64 victory.  Both teams were a little sloppy (31 combined turnovers) but both offenses look to be almost in prime shape already.  Keith Appling was sick (19 points and an insane lay-up to put MSU up 3 with 15 secs left) and Gary Harris joined him in the back court (18 points) to make the Spartans look like they might actually have the best guards in the Big 10 and Branden Dawson looks like he's all the way back from a knee injury.  For Kansas it's much the same story with Ben McLemore and Elijah Johnson looking like they can step right in and be a very, very good pair of guards.  What an awesome game this was.  Although that final Kansas play looked very Tubby Smith-errific.

7.  I have no idea how VCU got beaten by Wichita.  VCU has their entire team back.  Wichita has nobody back.  I thought Wichita would finally fade away, but apparently they just re-load.  Must be sweet.

8.  Alex Poythress is ridiculous.  I have no idea why I didn't know how athletic this guy is but I'd put him up there with Michael Kidd-Gilchrist last year.  It's probably because his name sounds pretty nerdy.  Honestly I couldn't even have told you if he was white or black before tonight because I didn't know anything about him, I just thought he sounded kind of like a nerd.  He's not.  He just dunks on Duke nerds' heads.  He's like a taller Rico Tucker.

Realistically looking at the year prior (Championship) and the year after (have you seen that recruiting class?) this is the worst team of that three year span for Kentucky and it's not really even close, and yet I'd be shocked if they aren't in the Final Four this year again.  Betwixt Calipari's ability to recruit the one-and-done type talent and the mystique and allure (good stripper names, fyi) of Kentucky that place is set up to be the closest thing to a dynasty since UCLA in the 60s or 70s or whatever.  Maybe both.  Effing Kareem.

9.  The other day I went my whole family went to Joe's Crab Shack to celebrate my birthday and there was this dude at the table next to us who ate his corn on the cob with a fork.  And I don't mean like that he cut the kernels off with a knife and then ate them like niblets, I mean he straight up just used his fork to scoop it right off the cob.  I wasn't sure if it was impressive or not but then Snacks got his dainty thing on and was like "I hate corn on the cob because I don't like getting it in my teeth and stuff" and he tried it and couldn't do it.  So basically this dude had a lifetime of experience of scooping corn kernels off the cob with a knife.  He was like MacGyver crossed with Mr. Pitt.  I didn't know if I should laugh or be impressed, but I certainly made sure to have everyone look.  Changed my life.

NCAA Hoops Preview: Teams 59-53

I could sit here and write up some thoughts on the baseball playoffs, but I'm going to save all that jazz for one big post maybe later this week.  Instead, here are some more NCAAB Previews, teams #59-#53.

 59.  NEW MEXICO LOBOS.  Losing double-double machine Drew Gordon is going to be tough to handle, but the Lobos get their entire back court back from last season's NCAA team and Alford has turned these guys into kind of a MWC dynasty - or at least in the mix at the top every year.  This season will depend largely on just how good Kendall Williams can be.  He's had two very good years so far in Albuquerque, and if he can take the next step and become one of the best players in the league they should be back in the running for a league title and/or an at-large bid.  Plus Williams is from Ranco Cucamonga and if you don't think that's a fun city name to say then you're probably already dead.

58.  GEORGETOWN HOYAS.  G-Town loses a ton of talent in three departing starters (their three top scorers last year), including Henry Sims who took over for Greg Monroe as the big man with guard skills.  Luckily they've got a heck of a player back in Otto Porter who had a stellar freshman year and now becomes the Hoyas alpha dog.  He doesn't have the ball-handling or outside touch that Sims and Monroe displayed, but he is already an excellent passer and smart player with the ball so he could easily develop into that same mold.  In the last two seasons the Hoyas have lost all of their big 3 guards and their two best post players so they're going to be looking for somebody to become a true playmaker.  If you play fantasy college basketball (TREVOR DON'T READ THIS) look at Markel Starks as a sleeper.  He's shown he can be an explosive scorer at times and this season he'll be their #1 perimeter option.

57.  LEHIGH MOUNTAIN HAWKS.  Naturally everyone loved Lehigh beating Duke because Duke is satan and hitler all in one, but Lehigh has the look of a team that isn't done quite yet.  They have four of their starters back from last year (their four top scorers) including last year's Patriot League player of the year and hero to all C.J. McCollum (30 pts vs. Duke) as well as Gabe Knutson (17 & 8 vs. Duke).  Can a team from the Patriot get an at-large bid?  It would be incredibly difficult and I don't think it's ever happened, but maybe this is the year.  Although the league RPI will be way down and thus drag Lehigh's down, they will have some chances to pick-up big wins they'll need to have a chance.  They open at Baylor, then if they can get past Robert Morris in the Preseason NIT (no sure thing) they would get Pitt and a win their would send them to Madison Square Garden for two more cracks at big-time schools (Michigan, Kansas State, Virginia).  They also play North Texas and Quinnipiac who could both end up as RPI Top 100 schools, as could conference foe Bucknell.  Win enough of those games and then lose only 1-2 in conference/conf. tournament play?  Probably better to win the conference tournament, but watch that Lehigh/Pitt game, could be huge for the little guys.

56.  PITT PANTHERS.  Hey, speaking of Pitt, here they are.  And if you're sick of the Gophers having a terrible non-conference schedule you should get a look at Pitt's.  If they don't get to Madison Square Garden that is absolutely brutally bad other than Detroit.  I suppose they'll play plenty of good teams in conference play, but man having Bethune-Cookman, Delaware State, and Kennesaw State all on the same schedule should be outlawed.  Also it seems Travon Woodall now goes by Tray, which is not as irritating as Terrell Holloway going by Tu, Michael Gilchrist or Maurice Drew adding an extra hyphenated last name, or especially Titus Young adding SR. to the back of his jersey after having a son named Titus, but it's still irritating and I hope Pitt loses every game.  I never liked them anyway.  Brandin Knight sucked and Carl Krauser was even worse.  [NOTE:  Somehow I completely missed that Trey Ziegler transferred here from CMU and is eligible this year, so bump them up a few spots.]

55.  MARYLAND TERRAPINS.  Maryland loses leading scorer Terrell Stoglin to, well, not the NBA since he didn't get drafted but to somewhere, but this might be one of those addition by subtraction kind of situations which yes is possible just look here smart guy:  (-2)-(-4) = 2 IN YOUR FACE.  But what that means for the Terps is that a bunch of guys who are used to standing around watching Stoglin jack shots (38% of shots taken by Maryland last year with him on the floor were his, 3rd highest in the NCAA) are suddenly going to have freedom to play ball and will be like a bunch of college freshman living away from their parents for the first time and will probably go a little nuts.  Of course, they're also pretty unproven due to never getting the ball, so Maryland should be a mixed bag this year.  Like your mom.

 54.  UTEP MINERS.  I know what you're thinking, and to be honest I'm not really sure why I have UTEP this high either, but I liked watching this team (the couple of times I found them on TV last year) and I think there may be something brewing here.  They're a really young team and John Bohannon may be the best center you've never heard of.  He made a huge leap from his freshman to sophomore year, and if he does something similar again this season he could be the best center in Conference USA that I can think of right now.  They also get their point guard back who was one of the top assisters in the conference and I don't know man.  They're young and fun like Kate Upton right now, and the way the team is constructed kind of reminds me of those awesome Memphis teams.  Or something.  I don't know, but now you're thinking about Kate Upton so it doesn't really matter what I say anymore.

 53.  TEMPLE OWLS.  The Owls lose two thirds of their back court to graduation, but should still contend at the top of the A-10 because returning guard Khalif Wyatt may be the best player in the conference.  I also like him because Temple is kind of a consistently successful but boring program, and Wyatt threw a little excitement out there this summer when he was arrested for soliciting a prostitute in Atlantic City.  He cooperated and only had to pay a fine and do some community service so he'll back and ready to play, but I can't wait to see some of the signs and hear some nice chants when Temple is on the road.  Should be fun. 

Week in Review: 2-20-2012

 Jesus what a completely pathetic defensive effort.  You name it, the Gophers did or didn't do it.  They didn't close out on shooters.  They got confused on their defensive scheme which led to not switching when they were supposed to and open lay-ups for Northwestern.  The continually went under screens instead of over the top and then made no real strong effort to get in a shooters face.  They got lost on back cuts.  They allowed offensive rebounds like candy, including on missed free throws which should be grounds for a lawsuit in some way I don't know I'm not a lawyer.  A five foot nothin' lesbian ball boy was able to get to the rim at will.  Just a completely putrid effort.  Combine that with an offense that seemed confused in the second half and completely went away from what worked in the first game and the half (can anyone actually tell me why they completely quit going inside when it's the whole reason they won the first game?).  Credit Northwestern with playing better defense and knocking down all those wide open shots, but this was a truly terrible game by the Gophers.  Now they need to win 2 of the next three (Michigan State, Indiana, @Wisconsin).  LOL.  Can't wait for baseball!


WHO WAS AWESOME

1.  Murray State Racers.  I've gone on record here as saying I'm not remotely a believer in Murray State, but after they waxed St. Mary's with ease in their Bracket Busters game on Saturday I've definitely seen a bit of a tick in the "I believe" direction on my "Do I believe in Murray State"-inator which I always wear on my wrist.  They just completely dominated the game from beginning to end, and St. Mary's is a very good team.  They did turn it over 15 times, but overcame that by shooting the lights out and winning by 14.  I can't quite throw my support behind them yet as being for real and I'd love to see them play one more good team to get a real sense of how good they are, but sadly they won't play another good team until the tournament.  The tournament which, by the way, they are an absolute lock for now no matter what else happens. 

2.  Other Bracket Buster winners.  Besides Murray State some other teams picked up very big wins this weekend.  Wichita State moves into lock territory after knocking off Davidson, while VCU (beat Northern Iowa), Drexel (crushed Cleveland State on the road), George Mason (over Lamar), Weber State (over UT-Arlington) and Iona (beat Nevada) all jump up from "probably not" to "we better take a look" status thanks to their wins.  Their were some huge wins outside of Bracket Busters as well, and probably none bigger than Kansas State's win over Baylor which is absolutely a monster for their profile.  Middle Tennessee State continued to roll through the the Sun Belt (they can afford zero losses prior to the Sun Belt Championship game), while South Florida has now moved to 10-4 in the Big East after an easy win at Pitt.  The overall profile is still a bit lacking but you can't ignore them anymore.  And finally, although they're not in consideration for an at-large, Loyola Marymount had a huge week, beating St. Mary's and then winning their Bracket Buster match-up against Valpo and that now gives them three wins over RPI Top 50 teams.  Which is pretty much their entire resume, so yeah.  Oh, and Harvard beat Yale, so that was good too.

3.  Oakland A's.  When I first saw the news that the A's had signed Yoenis Cespedes, the cuban defecting outfielder and supposed superstar, I was just stunned and was wondering what the hell Billy Beane was doing.  I mean, a team that basically just gutted it's entire roster outbidding everyone else to get a Cuban dude who has never faced major league quality pitching?  Bizarre.  But when I really stopped to think, it actually makes a lot of sense and is a worthwhile gamble.  They got him for 4 years/$36 million which is far less than it was originally thought he'd sign for ($50 mill+), and because of their situation they don't need him to come in a play right away and he can take some time in the minors to assimilate himself.  The A's suck now, but are primed to be a contender in a couple of years thanks to a farm system Keith Law ranked as the 9th best in baseball (and that was before this signing) with five guys in Law's Top 100 including three pitchers who project as top of the rotation type guys.  Add some hitters, like Cespedes, and Oakland becomes a contender.  And seriously, would you rather have Cespedes and his potential at $9 million per year, or Cuddyer at $10+?  Cespedes is basically a bargain - a gamble, but a bargain.

4.  New Mexico.  I'm not entirely certain if a team has EVER had as good a week as the Lobos just did.  There are two teams considered as "elite" in the MWC - San Diego State and UNLV.  New Mexico, due to a couple of shitty early season losses (to New Mex State and Santa Clara) and losses to both those teams, was considered a step below.  Well no more, because this week alone the Lobos beat SDSU at their place by 10 and then stomped UNLV at home by 20 to lock up a bid to the NCAA Tournament and assure the Mountain West will be sending three teams (at least) once again.  They're awfully good, and have a great point guard who can control the game in Kendall Williams, plus a star in Drew Gordon (finally) who put up 27 & 20 against the Rebels.  Hopefully they don't run the table and then win the MWC Tournament, because I want them to have a lower seed for sleeper potential.  

5.  Tyus Jones.  Jones scored 45 points in a game against some team earlier this week to go along with 7 assists, 7 steals, and 7 rebounds.  He also received a scholarship offer from Duke.  That now means the Gophers are competing against not only Ohio State and Michigan State but now the freakin' Blue Devils, and Jones has zero interest in staying home and the Gophers' continual mediocrity isn't going to win him over any time soon.  If you still believe Jones may end up a Gopher, just remember Naadir Tharpe who looked like he was all set to join the Gophers before Kansas suddenly swooped in out of nowhere with an offer which Tharpe accepted within the week.  The Gophers, at present, simply cannot compete for that type of player, and when that player is from here and they still can't get him it just reinforces how big of a wasteland the program is right now.  Man do I miss Clem.  Sure he cheated, but at least he made the team relevant.  I'd kill for relevancy.  I'm going to light matches and see how long I can hold my finger in the flame, just so I can feel something.


WHO SUCKED

1.  Ralph Sampson.  I truly believe this is the last time I'll ever write about Sampson because I think we're pretty much done here.  Whether it's his fault or Tubby's (well, probably both) nothing has changed since Day 1 and I think even his most ardent supporters, yours truly, have realized that he's going to go down with Rick Rickert as the biggest disappointment in team history.  His numbers are virtually unchanged from his freshman year.  He wasn't progressing as much as anybody had hoped, but there was a bit of a progression so you could still hold out hope he would have a monster senior year, and when Mbakwe went down the door was wide open.  Rather than going through, however, Ralph timidly shut it and, with a shrug of the shoulders, said "No thank you." 

He's never shown any drive or any aggressiveness, and never improved in any way (in fact he's regressed in every possible way other than shooting percentage).  He never refined his hook shot, nor added a second move in four years.  Seriously he never added another move.  And, for all his outside shot promise, he never delivered on that either.  I suspect Ralph had the talent, but spent his off seasons not in the gym, but playing nintendo or dominoes or dungeons and dragons or whatever kids do these days.  His downside should have been Sam Perkins, but he never even got there.  This pretty much sums it up.  I'm just pissed I didn't think of it first.

2.  Illinois Fighting Illini.  As disappointing as the Tubby era has been, at least he's not Bruce Weber.  After a pretty rough home loss to Purdue on Wednesday that made four straight defeats and a record of 1-7 in their last 8, Weber gave interviews where he sounded alternately confused (bad look for a coach) and defeated (even worse) and his boss gave an interview where he pretty much went out of his way to say Weber was still his guy.  So, naturally, rather than rallying around their coach and coming out all fired up against Nebraska the Illini did what you'd expect them to do and rolled over like a bunch of two-bit hookers.  I mean they lost to Nebraska by 23 and it wasn't even that close.  The Huskers had walk-ons in with like 3 minutes left in the game.  Brandon Paul shot 1-7 and scored 2 points.  Terrible game, and it's basically guaranteed that Weber is gone after this year.  Illinois has a continual pipeline of talent in Chicago so they'll always be dangerous, so as a Gopher fan I'm very sorry to see Weber go, because with him at the helm you always knew you never had to worry about the Illini. 

3.  Conference USA.  When I did my bubble watch I counted both Southern Miss and Memphis as IN along with a group of other teams with the caveat that none of those teams could handle more than 1 more loss.  Well, C-USA, poised to possibly get more than one team in the dance for the first time since 1998*, just kicked itself square in the balls because both Southern Miss and Memphis - the only two teams in the conference with at-large chances - both lost to bad teams this weekend.  So Miss lost to Houston and their RPI of 220, while Memphis got dropped by UTEP (RPI 149).  If both teams manage to get to the C-USA championship game without another loss I'd expect both to still get in.  But if either picks up another loss things are going to be very dicey.  I was feel bad for C-USA.  It was formed to compete with the big boys and was competitive for a bit, but then was completely raided, is now losing Memphis, and will dissolve and form with the leftovers from the Mountain West and is going to be just completely brutal.  Don't forget, Cincinnati, Marquette, and Louisville all used to be C-USA schools, and now the jewel will be what, Marshall?  UTEP?  Gross.  This is like being the black sheep of your family and then quitting your shitty job to join a cult.  And not one of the good ones either, more like one that forbids group sex (which I assume is the only reason anyone joins a cult). 

4.  Mississippi State Tigers.  Remember like, not all that long ago when Mississippi State was 6-3 in SEC play and had a non-conference win over West Virginia (RPI 37) and no bad (RPI sub-100) losses and everything was hunky dorey?  Well a three game losing streak has included losses to Auburn (RPI 123) and Georgia (RPI 107) and they're now 6-3 and in a wee spot of trouble.  They have four games left before the SEC Tournament and one is home against Kentucky and another is on the road at Alabama (which is a very tough game if their dudes are reinstated).  And it's sad because any team with Dee Bost, Arnett Moultrie, Rodney Hood, and Renardo Sidney should coast to a bid - I mean there's a reason this team was ranked 15th at one point this year.  Although Sidney is still way fat and his game has taken a pretty significant step backwards this year, so that doesn't help.  Of course, beating Kentucky this week will solve all ills.

5.  NC State Wolfpack.  This week was a monster of the Wolfpack who were right on the cusp of the bubble and just needed a marquee win or two to push them towards the top, and the opportunities were there with a game at Duke and then a home contest against Florida State.  Everything was looking good as NC State raced out to a 16-point lead at the half and were up 19 with 11 minutes left to play, but then they remembered they aren't supposed to win at Cameron and the refs also must have gotten a little jolt in their brain implanted microchips because Duke ended up winning thanks in part to 16 free throw attempts in the final 10 minutes compared to just seven for NC State and three NC Staters fouled out.  So that sucked, but even worse they let that hangover drift into Saturday's game against FSU and got their doors blown off.  They still have UNC at home this week, but that's their last chance to get a real good win prior to the ACC Tournament.  They're looking like they're a year away, and I say that because their recruiting class next year contains Rivals recruits #6, #23, and #55 and ranks as the fourth best in the country for 2012.  And yet Tubby's class for that year contains two 3-star guys.  It's like impossible to follow college basketball as closely as I do and not get depressed at least three times about the Gophers.


Two additional quick points and then I'll shut-up:

1.  The Gophers weren't the only team who took their NCAA bid hopes and pissed all over them this week.  Other than Illinois, Miss State, NC State, and the C-USA teams mentioned above, you also had Davidson (loss to Wichita) who is now done along with Akron (loss to Oral Roberts), and Nevada (loss to Iona).  Long Beach is still in pretty solid shape as long as there aren't any major slip-ups, but if they had won at Creighton (lost at the buzzer) they would have punched their ticket.  And a few major conference teams, although not killing their chances, hurt them badly including Texas (got smoked by a shitty Oklahoma Stat team) and Arizona (lost to Washington).  That win for Washington moves them to12-3 in the Pac-10, but the conference is so incredibly shitty that doesn't guarantee them a bid, not even a little.  I read somewhere that the Pac-10 overall was something like 2-25 against the RPI Top 50 outside of conference.  That's ridiculous.  So bad it's like Tubby Smith's record against them since coming to the Gophers. lol.

2.  I really like the A.J. Burnett trade for both sides.  The Pirates add a veteran arm who undeniably has some talent to a rotation where almost nobody can name a single starter while not giving up any prospects of particular note while the Yankees pay for most of the contract.  The Yankees get rid of a guy who clearly struggled with both the AL East and the NY spotlight and saved enough in the process to turn around and sign Raul Ibanez - a RH DH they desperately needed.  And Burnett gets out of New York into a non-pressure and no lose situation, not to mention he gets out to the AL (and specifically the AL East) which can only help.  win-win-win.

* = I completely made this up because I didn't feel like actually looking it up

NCAA Basketball Preview - The Mountain West

With BYU heading for the weirder pastures of the West Coast Conference, Utah shipping out to the Pac-12, and TCU heading to the Big 12 via the Big East, the Mountain West is looking less and less recognizable.  BYU and Utah are both gone already (meaning the Mountain West is now Utah-less), with TCU heading out next year.  Boise State is already in place, and starting next season Fresno State, Hawaii (football only), and Nevada will jump on board to bring the MWC to 10 (at least for basketball, assuming Boise stays here for basketball and doesn't do something weird after the football team gets invited into the Big East).  It's all very confusing, but it boils down to trading TCU, Utah, and BYU for Boise, Hawaii (football only), Fresno, and Nevada.  Not exactly a great trade for the MWC, and this conference is already on the way down.  More than 2 bids would be fairly miraculous.

1.  NEW MEXICO LOBOS.  This team is going to be a monster.  Last year they won 22 games and just missed out on an NCAA bid, and this year they return basically their whole team including basically automatic MWC Player of the Year as long as he doesn't go crazy or get suspended or anything in Drew Gordon.  The only player they're missing off last year's squad is Dairese Gary, which is actually a big deal because he was there point guard and was all-conference last season, but they have a great nucleus back and plenty of options to take over the point, including Demetrius Walker, a combo guard who transferred from USC and was the main subject of the recent book about AAU ball.  Really though, assuming they get competent point guard play this should be a sweet 16 team.

2. UNLV RUNNIN' REBELS.  The Rebels lose Tre'Von Willis and Derrick Jasper and they will be missed, Willis especially, but UNLV has plenty coming back and anything less than an NCAA bid will be a big-time failure for first year coach Dave Rice.  Combo guard Oscar Bellfield is a potential stud, especially since he'll be playing more SG with Willis out plus the emergence of Anthony Marshall, and Chace Stanback is probably the best player in the conference outside of Drew Gordon and can do it all.  The teams biggest issue, and the real problem for them all year, will be in the frontcourt.  They were weak there last year as well and made due, but five of their six leading rebounders last year were perimeter players.  I'm predicting first round NCAA exit here.

NOTE:  This is an Aztec tramp stamp

3.  SAN DIEGO STATE AZTECS.  Last year the stars aligned for the Aztecs with several key players hitting their peak at the same time and it resulted in a very fun and likeable team and an appearance in the Sweet 16.  Now four starters are gone, including stud Kawhi Leonard who left early, but things aren't completely barren in San Diego - although it would be a rather large shocker if they made the NCAA Tournament again.  In typical MWC fashion, the main additions to the team come via transfer - Garrett Green from LSU, Deshawn Stephens from a JUCO, and Xavier Thames from Washington State.  None are instant superstars (like Gordon was for New Mexico) but all should be solid with potential.  Add that to the talent they have coming back, much of it from a reserve role of course, and they should be decent.  Remember this name:  LaBradford Franklin. 

4.  COLORADO STATE RAMS.   You know how when the Gophers were looking for a coach everybody was all like "Tim Miles blah blah blah" and mostly it was just because NDSU beat Monson's Gophers?  Well maybe he's pretty decent, because the Rams have gone from 0-16 in conference play a few years ago, to a CBI berth two seasons ago, to an NIT bid last year.  That may not sound all that great, but remember this is a CSU program that hasn't done shit since 2003.  This year could be tough because they lose their two leading scorers and front court starters, so it will be up to some reserves to step up - or this could be a breakout season for redshirt freshman center Chad Calcaterra, a name you probably recognize because he either spurned the Gophers or they spurned him, I don't remember.  And this is probably too many words about CSU already so I'll just say there's enough talent on the perimeter to get them to fourth and another probably NIT bid - tough to see an NCAA bid coming just yet.

5.  AIR FORCE FALCONS.  Air Force has gone from 0 conference wins, to one, and then jumped to six last season and thank god because while a super slow paced team that wins is kind of beautiful in a weird Betty White kind of way, a super slow paced terrible team is like spending time in a nursing home.  I don't remember where I was going with this.  Go Air Force!

7.  TCU HORNED FROGS.  TCU has something the two teams below them don't have, and that's a standout player and that's good enough for 7th place.  The Horned Frogs have Hank Thorns who led the country in assists at 7.0 per game and did it with an impressive 2.71 assist-to-turnover ratio, all while averaging double figures in points per game.  He's not much of a shooter, but he did notch 4 double-doubles last year of the points/assists variety which I'm going to assume led the nation.  Unfortunately TCU's actual best player, and Thorns back court mate, Ronnie Moss was suspended last year and transferred out, or this would have been a legitimately exciting and intriguing back court.  Oh well.  Not like anybody cares if it isn't football anyway.

7.  BOISE STATE COWBOYS.  If you're anything like me, and god help you if you are, you don't know dick about Boise State's basketball program because other than Utah State and Magnum Rolle nobody pays attention to the WAC.  According to what I read, they were a CBI team last year but are losing their top 4 scorers from last season and returning just one guy who played more than 18 minutes per game last season.  There's a bunch of blah blah newcomers, but really it's going to be a rough one for Boise.  They're stepping up in class conference-wise at the same time their team is taking a step backwards, but at least they aren't last.

8.  WYOMING COWBOYS.  In all my years of college basketball watching I'm almost positive I've never seen a Wyoming game. That's probably a good thing.  The good news is that they hired a new coach, Larry Shyatt, who was part of the mini-Florida dynasty that was going on.  The bad news is that when they hired him their best two players decided to split.  Basically they're now relying on a midget point guard, a guy who has had two knee surgeries in as many years, and Larry Nance's kid.  I don't think I'll be seeing them on TV any time soon. 

Other previews:
Big 12
ACC
Atlantic 10
Pac 12 
SEC 
C-USA

Mountain West College Basketball 2010 Preview

1.  San Diego State Aztecs.  I don't want to oversell a Mountain West team, because then I'd end up looking like some kind of jackass who pimps Dayton as a dynasty, but this Aztec team is loaded, and if you're looking for a final four sleeper from a non-BCS conference, look no further.  Kawhi Leonard is a complete stud, a potential NBA draft pick, and is top five amongst returnees in the conference in points, rebounds and steals and top 20 in blocks, assists, and field goal percentage.  Mean amongst boys, you might say, and he has his whole posse coming back with him.  You got his buddies down low in Malcolm Thomas, a double-digit scorer who was top 5 in rebounding, blocks, and FG% last year, and Billy White, another double-digit scorer who led the league in FG percentage at 59%.  And you get your starting back court back in double-figure scorer D.J. Gay (ha ha) and Chase Tapley.  Really the only thing they need is a true point guard (Gay is more of a combo) and a shooter.  Well, they signed a top point guard prospect in LaBradford Franklin, so really all they need is a shooter - if they need anything at all.  In case you can't tell, I'm high on SDSU this year.  Got 'em at 100-1, baby.  We goin' sizzla'.

2.  BYU Cougars.  Jimmer is back, and Jimmer is Jimmer, but he unfortunately loses his boy Tyler Haws to his weird mormon mission, what with the strange underwear and the weird supplementary bible works.  That's not to say Jimmer is on his own, because his third little buddy in the back court, Jackson Emery, is back, as is Noah Hartsock to man the lane.  The losses will hurt (along with Haws the Cougars also lose do-everything forward Jonathan Tavernari and starting center Chris Miles), but there is enough talent surrounding Jimmer that BYU should be dancing again this year, if dancing was allowed by the Mormon religion.  And by the way, Jimmer is totally a Utah/Mormon name.  My wife was raised mormon, and her family is bonkers.  She has cousins who named their kids Londyn, Brooklyn, Okland, Dagon, Presley, Daxton, Lindy, Maximus, and Braden.  I swear to god I'm not kidding.

3.  UNLV Runnin' Rebels.  The Rebels looked like the were going to be in great shape, getting all five starters back from last year's NCAA Tournament team, but then Tre'Von Willis choked some chick (that's frowned upon), Matt Shaw was booted after failing a drug test, and Kendall Wallace tore his ACL and is out for the year.  Ouch.  Luckily (for the team and Willis, not so much for the girl) Willis is only going to miss three games, and he'll be joined by Chace Stanback and Oscar Bellfield, as well as Derrick Jasper assuming he's back from his own knee injury.  That's enough to be near the top in the MWC but bad luck and dumb choices knock them down from loaded to merely good.

4.  New Mexico Lobos.  Usually when a program like New Mexico loses a couple of guys like Darington Hobson and Roman Martinez from a team that went 30-5 and reached the second round of the NCAA Tournament you can count on a down period to follow.  Luckily for Lobo fans, Steve Alford has them looking like the kind of team where a letdown still means an NCAA bid.  Stepping in for those two are Drew Gordon, the transfer from UCLA who played well in Westwood before heading to the desert, and Alex Kirk (who the Gophers were looking at at one point) who is the one of only two Rivals Top 150 recruit coming to the MWC (he's #116, the other is BYU's Kyle Collinsworth at #134).   It's not an even trade, of course, because Martinez and Hobson were do-it-all wings while Gordon and Kirk are post players, but it's the kind of influx of talent that will help, along with returning point guard Dairese Gary - particularly if Gordon has his head on straight.  Don't forget, he was a top 50 player as a freshman, and was averaging double-figures in points and 2 blocks per game last year.  He's still got the talent to be a star.

5.  Colorado State Rams.  Tim Miles has done a hell of a job, Travis Busch signing notwithstanding (and by the way, I heard he likes to hang out by himself in bars near the campus on Saturday mornings - true story), and he has the Rams solidly turned around from "shitbox" to "mediocre."  I don't know that they can turn the corner just yet, but there is some talent here.  Andy Ogide returns to man the paint for the Rams and he was top five in the league in both rebounding and field goal percentage, and Dorian Green had a very nice freshman season at point for CSU last year, averaging 12 points and 3 assists per game.  And don't forget this is where one-time Gopher PF target Chad Calcaterra landed.  He'll have a chance to contribute right away, but this team isn't quite ready to compete for an NCAA berth yet.  If only they had Travis Busch for one more year, that kind of hustle cures all ills.    

6.  Wyoming Cowboys.  The success (it's a relative term) of the Cowboys' season this year pretty much rests on the health of Afam Mujoeke's knee.  Two seasons ago Mujoeke won the MWC Freshman of the Year award, and then last year he was having a fine season averaging 17 points per game before he blew out his patella tendon, which sounds pretty terrible.  If he's back at full strength he'll join sophomore Desmar Jackson to give the Cowboys a nice one-two scoring punch, and make them viable enough that they will at least threaten to upset a team or two.  If he's not all the way back, it's going to be a long year in Laramie.  Or longer, at least.  I mean, I assume it's always a long year in Wyoming, what with all the long hours baling hay and milking cows before class and what not.

7.  Utah Utes.  This will be the last season for the Utes in the Mountain West, and it's probably about time to leave before they tarnish their legacy, because after being the dominant force in the conference since it's inception in 1999, winning five of the first seven league titles, they've fallen off, finishing better than 5th just once in the last five seasons and gaining just one NCAA berth.  That probably won't get much better this year.  Both of last year's two leading scorers are transferring (Carlon Brown to Colorado, Marshall Henderson to Texas Tech), and a host of bench fodder is leaving as well (missions and what have you) and the Utes will have a whole slew of new faces.  If some of those new guys turn out to be good guards Utah could finish higher than this because they do have a lot of size in 7-3 David Foster and 7-0 Jason Washburn, both of whom finished in the top five in blocked shots in the MWC with Foster finishing fourth nationally.  So they're big.  And probably slow since I assume the whole team is white.

8.  TCU Horned Frogs.  Well if we want to start with something nice, let's talk about TCU's back court because it's actually quite solid.  Ronnie Moss is an excellent all-around player who led the team in scoring (14.9 per game) and assists (5.9 per game, good for 1st in the conference and 9th nationally) and also chipped in with more than 3 rebounds and almost a steal per game.  He's not exactly a wizard with the jump shot (just 40% shooting last year) and he turns it over way too much (3.8 per game) but still - he's a heck of a player.  Joining him in the back court this year will be Hank Thorns, a transfer from Virginia Tech who had some limited success in his two years as a Hokie, hampered only by the fact that he can't shoot (30% from the field as a sophomore).  And speaking of can't shoot the third guard and second leading returning scorer, Greg Hill, shot just 41% last year, which actually makes him the marksman of the group.  So the guards are good but they can't shoot.  Now let me tell you all the good things about their front court players:  at least they aren't Air Force. 

9.  Air Force Falcons.  Remember when Air Force was kind of good for a minute there, using that slower-than-a-Vickers-Gunbus-offense?  They actually made the tournament in 2004 and 2006, but things have fallen off faster than Maverick after Goose died, and the Falcons have won just won conference game combined the last two seasons - lost that lovin' feeling indeed.  I'd love to sit here and make Top Gun/Fighter Jet jokes for another few sentences, but researching the Falcons makes me feel like Cougar after getting missile locked, and there's no Viper to be my wingman.  Great Balls of Fire!!

Week in Review - 3/1/2010

Well that was a pretty good win.  Not good as in pretty, or good as in they finally figured out how to close out a game, but good as in that was a season saver.  I can't really give you the usual brilliant, in-depth analysis you've come to expect because I was watching the game while at a beer bust, but I saw enough to know my prediction of a big gopher lead early, a gopher lead late, and a Illinois comeback and win damn near came true.  That's not the important thing, however.  The important thing is that they did get this win, and now are in ok shape for a tournament bid, even showing up on the "last four out" for Joe Lunardi.  Win at Michigan and beat Iowa here, then win one big ten tournament game and it's very interesting.

If you just compare the Gophers and Illinois quick, they have basically the same record, although Illinois is two games better in conference play.  The Gophers have the better RPI (70 to 74) and better Strength of Schedule (37 to 61).  Both teams have two wins over top 25 RPI teams, while Illinois has a total of four over top 50 teams compared to just three for the Gophers and they have nearly identical records against the top 100.  The Gophers have three bad losses (vs. teams over 100 in the RPI) while Illinois has two.  The Gophers are 4-8 in road/neutral games, while Illinois is 6-8.  The best win by either of the two teams goes to the Gophers with their win over Butler, and both team's have beaten Wisconsin.

I know the bids supposedly don't compare teams within the conference like this and look at the team's as an overall whole, but it's useful to know where the Gophers stand in comparison to the Illini.  It also serves as a depressing reminder that if you reverse almost any loss on the Gopher schedule, they are ahead of Illinois, but as it stands right now they are probably slightly behind.  In any case, it's time to win.  There's no room for error.

WHO WAS AWESOME

1.  Notre Dame.  Bill Simmons' Ewing Theory in full effect?  Seriously, has anybody has as impressive a week all year as Notre Dame had this week?  They beat both Pitt and Georgetown, both by double-digits, and have gone from "probably out" to "probably in" all in a four day span - and they've done it without Luke Harangody.  Since he's been out it's just been a bunch of role-players just used to deferring to him, but maybe we're finding out they aren't role players (even if Tory Jackson has the decision-making skills of a rock).  Ben Hansbrough has stepped up his scoring since Harangody went out, averaging 15 per game (compared to 12), but the guy who has really helped out is junior forward Carleton Scott, who is averaging 9.3 points and 6.3 rebounds per game since the injury compared to 3.5 of each beforehand.  Basically the Irish have played really well since Luke went down, and now find themselves in good shape for an NCAA bid.  Which means he'll come back next week, they'll lose two, bow out early in the Big East tournament, and find themselves in the NIT again.  

2.  Syracuse.  Wow.  And also, wow.  What an impressive victory over Villanova, the alleged #8 team in the land.  The Orange smoked Scottie Reynolds and the rest of those dorks 95-77 which followed up their road win earlier in the week over Providence.  To go out and annihilate another top ten team like the Wildcats is impressive, and I'm starting to think the Orange are the team to beat in March.  I was pretty clearly wrong about Wes Johnson, who is an absolute stud, and I think Andy Rautins used my criticism of him from last year as a motivational tool because he's somehow become a top flight point guard and he's not even a point guard.  I was talking to a friend who is a Syracuse alum, and he said that this isn't the Cuse's most talented team, but it is their best.  He said usually they have a focal point guy who a lot of times undermines the whole team concept - it worked with Carmelo, didn't with Donte Greene - but this year it's just seven guys who have bought in to the team concept.  Really good team.  Right now, they're probably my #1.

3.  New Mexico.  If you kind of thought New Mexico wasn't anything special and just kept rising in the polls because they were basically just chillin' in the Mountain West, you aren't alone.  If you still think that, you're an idiot.  The Lobos put the word out that they are the real deal, going into Provo and beat BYU 83-81, the Cougars first home loss this year and one of only a handful the last few years.  The win clinches at least a tie for the MWC crown for the Lobos, and brings New Mexico to 6-0 this year against ranked teams.  That's right, 6-0.  They've beaten BYU twice, UNLV, Cal, Texas Tech, and Texas A&M, and also have wins over decent teams like Dayton, Louisiana Tech, and New Mexico State.  Three of this team's top four players are of the 6-5 to 6-8 athletic wing types, and the other dude gives them the strong and experience point play you need in March.  This team is a threat.

4.  Marquette.  Now this is how a bubble team is supposed to respond to a challenge in late March.  Marquette was probably right in the middle of the bubble, but with two wins this week, both on the road, both in overtime, and one over fellow bubble team Seton Hall, they're probably in for sure.  First, the Eagles beat St. John's in their place 63-61 on a Jimmy Butler jumper as time expired in overtime, and then they went to Seton Hall and knocked the Pirates out of NCAA contention 84-83.  I didn't expect much out of Marquette this year, not after losing three starting guards who were basically the whole team, but Lazar Hayward has gotten even better and Butler and Darius Johnson-Odom are very good players.  And Marquette is probably better than the 19-9 record would indicate.  Other than an inexplicable loss to DePaul and an early season loss to NC State every loss on the record has been by single-digits to an NCAA-caliber team. 

5.  Tay Waller.  I know you don't know who this is, but that's why I'm here, to be nerdy enough about college hoops to know who people like Tay Waller are.  And also he's on my fantasy team, which has now made the finals.  Anyway, Waller had a big week but you won't hear about because he plays for crappy Auburn.  The 6-2 senior guard for the Tigers was a top 10 JuCo player back in 2008 coming out of NW Florida Community College, and after being pretty solid for his year and three-quarters (way better than Bostick) he's really hit his stride, scoring more than 26 in each of Auburn's last three games, scoring 29 against Ole Miss in a loss and then 26 to lead the Tigers to a win over LSU this week.  He's not on any NBA radars or anything, but he'll probably end up making a nice living overseas, and he deserves to be recognized even if he plays for the shitbox that is the Auburn Tigers.  Plus, he probably gets to roll around with broads like these all the time.

WHO SUCKED

1.  Wake Forest.  Probably the worst week any team has had in the history of basketball.  No joke.  The Demon Deacons started off the week by losing at ACC bottom-feeder North Carolina State, and then followed that up by getting embarrassed at home by the embarrassing Carolina Tar Heels.  To put this in Big Ten terms, that would be like losing at Indiana and then losing at home to Michigan.  [NOTE:  I just realized what I did there.  hahahahahahahahahaha kill me.]   And I had the misfortune to watch a good chunk of that Carolina game, and holy crap is Wake awful.  I've never seen a team play so lazily and selfishly all at the same time.  It was like watching five Westbrooks.  I refuse to believe this team is 8-6 in the ACC, and was 8-3 at one point.  This is a first-round upset waiting to happen, I don't care if they draw Bethune-Cookman in round one.

2.  John Wall.  Has the phenom hit the proverbial wall?  His raw numbers are ok - 12 pts, 5 rebounds, 4 assists in a 20-point win over South Carolina and 19-5-6 in the loss to Tennessee, but if you look deeper he had a pretty sub-par week.  He shot just 10-31 overall and was 0-7 from three-point range, and he turned the ball over 11 times in the two games - yes, that's more turnovers than field goals made this week.  And although he has always been a bit of a turnover machine (averaging 4.0 per game) his shooting is what would really concern me - he hasn't shot better than 50% in a game since February 2nd.  Maybe it's just a simple fluctuation of his numbers, but if I was a Kentucky fan I'd be pretty concerned that he seems to be struggling a bit at this time of the year.  In any case, there's no way a team this young (three of the top four players are freshmen) and this volatile (both Cousins and Wall are crazy) with that coach is going to the final four.  You go ahead and pick them there, but they're going to get knocked off by some seven seed.  Just watch.

3.  Virginia Tech.  When your hopes for an at-large bid are best described as "little margin for error and only in decent shape because of an impressive ACC record" one thing you really shouldn't do is go out the next week and drop two ACC games - one at home (to Maryland) and one to a bottom-tier team (Boston College).  The Hokies are still 21-7 overall and 8-6 in conference play, but there's not a whole lot to be impressed with.  They have a win over Clemson, one over Wake, and a non-conference win over Seton Hall, and that's it.  Everything else is against a bottom tier team.  I don't know what to think about their chances, they're a super confusing team.  You could make a pretty good argument spanning anywhere from "they should be easily in" to "they have no chance."  Take your pick.

4.  The Atlantic 10.  Going into this week there were seven teams in the A-10 that had a shot at getting an at-large bid to the tournament, but things are not breaking the right way and it's starting to look more and more likely that the conference will end up with three teams going (Temple, Xavier, and Richmond are all basically locks).  Dayton is probably fourth on the list, but at 8-6 in the conference might not have enough juice, and they had a huge chance to knock of Temple this week and whiffed.  Another team that had a chance at a big upset and missed out was St. Louis, who has a nice 10-4 conference record but is lacking big wins, which makes their loss to Xavier this week even more damaging.  Charlotte and Rhode Island both looked to have an inside track at a bid earlier this year, but both have faded coming down the stretch and both knocked themselves out of bid contention with losses they couldn't have this weekend - Charlotte lost to George Washington, Rhode Island to St. Bonaventure.  So the A-10 will likely have just three teams dancing, maybe four if Dayton gets it together, which isn't bad, but isn't as lofty as it could have been.  Also, Richmond and Temple are going down quickly, Xavier is the only team here that can make a run.  Mark it down.

5.  Purdue.  Ruh roh.  You kind of had to wonder just how the Boilers would respond with Robbie Hummel out.  They still have E'Twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson which still gives them one of the better 1-2 punches in the country, but Hummel was kind of the glue guy, along with being a top scorer.  They certainly didn't have any time to ease into, welcoming Michigan State to Keady Court right off the bat, and the results weren't pretty.  The only managed 44 points, shot just 30%, and were out-rebounded 44-16 as the Spartans won 53-44.  Yes by the way, those numbers are correct they were out-rebounded 44-16.  I think they'll end up being a lot better without Hummel than they showed on Sunday, and they have games against Penn State and Indiana this coming week to work on some things, but this has to be a pretty big concern for Boiler Nation.


I guess there was also some kind of big whoopity-doo hockey game between the Americans and the Commies or something, but I didn't really pay attention.  I heard the commies won, so I expect Canada to start taking over Red Dawn style anytime now.  WOLVERINES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (but not on Tuesday)



BUBBLE GAMES OF NOTE:

Fresno State @ Utah State.  I've written about them before, but the beat rolls on.  USU needs to win and keep winning.  Even at 23-6 they can't really afford a loss because, outside of a win over BYU, there's not much there in the non-conference profile.  They would probably be ok if they lost in the WAC final to either New Mexico State or Louisiana Tech, but any loss short of that will keep likely knock them out of at-large consideration