Everything is Great!

Well, we knew this was setting up to be a bad year, but I didn't expect this.  The loss to Temple, sure ok.  Decent team, Gophers are young and traveling for the first time, fine.  The near collapse against Missouri State?  Ok well they won.  That was a little scary but they managed.  The loss to Texas Tech?  Ugh (and nothing to do with Tubby because if you care about that you're dumb).  Man, maybe this team is even worse than I feared.  Near loss to Omaha?  Yikes!  Well, they managed to win so they're just treading water and should end up not too terrible eventually.  Then the win over Clemson!  Yes!  They're putting it together and Jordan Murphy is going to win the Heisman!!

Then came the past week.  Swept by the South Dakota schools.  So.  Gross.  A loss to SDSU on it's own wouldn't even be that bad, really.  The Jackrabbits have a sweet name, rank 50th in kenpom's ratings right now, and only have one loss on their schedule (though they haven't really beaten anyone).  That alone you could stomach.  But South Dakota is a garbage diaper dumpster fire.  They're 6-3 but have beaten nobody and have some bad, bad losses.  The Gophers had extra chances to get their shit together with the two overtimes and it just never happened.  Then SDSU just completely dominated from the start.  This is so ugly.

The team is just completely clueless defensively.  The rank 229th in defensive efficiency, giving up 1.04 points per possession, and this is against a schedule that features nobody ranked above the top 50 overall - that's really bad!  Here is a list of the power conference teams that are worse: .  That's not a typo.  There is nobody worse.  The only other times since 2002 (kenpom's existence) they've been worse than a 1 were Pitino's first year, the Molinari year, and Monson's worst year - and those were full season numbers which included Big Ten play.  This is just horrible.  Let's check something.  Let's pretend the Gophers finish at that 1.04 mark, which frankly seems pretty optimistic, and see how that rates historically among Big Ten teams.

1. 2008 Northwestern, 1.075
2. 2007 Penn State, 1.057
3. 2004 Ohio State, 1.052
4. 2015 Indiana, 1.048
5. 2005 Penn State, 1.044
6. 2016 Minnesota, 1.041

I mean this isn't just a bad defense, this is a horrific historically bad defense.  If things hold here it's the sixth worst defense in the Big Ten in the last 14 years.

It's so bad that you can't even simply blame the young team right now, you have to take a hard look at Pitino.  I fully supported the hiring at the time, and I have no quibble with the recruiting steps he's taken, but the on court and off court prep work is not coming together as I expected.  When he first got here there were some missteps and weird on court decisions, but you kinda figured that would improve since he was so young and inexperienced and I was willing to give him time.  But we're in Year 3 here, and not only has his coaching not improved, it's possible it's actually gotten worse, and I'm particularly talking about the constant defensive mistakes by the players.  If it's one player then ok, he's kind of a dunce, but it's multiple guys and it's happening often.  Teams don't shoot over 40% on threes against you by all being hot over 9 games.

Hey, I'm not saying to run him out of town or he needs to be fired or anything, but this team really needs to show improvement as the season goes along or there are going to be some hard questions to think about.  Let's hope it doesn't come to that, because I really like the direction the recruiting is heading in.

Next up - Oklahoma State in Sioux Falls, which is some kind of hilarious joke having to traveling to that damn state right after both their schools beat the Gophers.  Oklahoma State is also a bad team, sitting at 5-3 with zero Top 150 wins and their best wins over Long Beach State and Long Beach State who they've beaten twice which is weird.  They're coming off a loss to Missouri State, yes that Missouri State, and have also dropped games to Tulsa (decent) and George Mason (bad).  So congratulations Sioux Falls, here comes some crappy basketball.

The Cowboys don't shoot the three well and they don't shoot it often at all (though I expect both these to change on Saturday).  They do, however, take great care of the basketball (this matters less this year than other years since the Gophers are not creating any turnovers), and they make their two point shots and excel at free throws.  They don't cause many turnovers either, which means the Gophers will have plenty of chances to run offensive sets that don't go anywhere.  This is a terrible match-up.

OSU lost their top returning scorer to injury early on this year, not to mention the other 3 top scorers to graduation, so the cupboard was pretty bare.  They managed a nice, well rounded, spread it out scoring attack with five players averaging between eight and thirteen points per game this year.  Jeff Newberry (13.0ppg) is your do it all guard type, Chris Olivier (12.1ppg) is a low post scorer who is frankly going to eat Bakary Konate alive, Jawun Evans (10.1ppg) is the freshman point guard (4.3apg) and best shooter on the team with Phil Forte on the shelf with an elbow injury, Leyton Hammonds (9.8ppg) scored 20 in his first game back from injury versus Long Beach, and Jeffrey Carroll (8.1ppg) is a person.

This could just be me being pessimistic because ugh, but I honestly think this Gopher team is much worse than I thought, and I also believe Oklahoma State is a terrible match up for this team.  I do believe doors will be blown off on Saturday.

Ok State 88, Gophers 70.

Words on the NCAA Basketball Season

With little to no action on the recruiting front (although our new best friend Nate Mason was on campus this weekend) and nothing worth talking Twins about, I haven't posted in a while.  But here I am, watching both baseball and football, and I was missing you guys so I should write some words.

-  Ok so spoiler alert, I'm pretty lazy busy now a days and don't get to post as much.  Therefore, I likely won't be doing that thing where I preview a whole bunch of college basketball teams this year because that takes a shit ton of time and I don't think anybody reads them anyway.  But I feel I must call your attention to a team that is not getting the respect they deserve, a team I have ranked as the 3rd best in the country behind Michigan State and Louisville - The Oklahoma State Cowboys.

Most prediction things I've looked at have them somewhere in the 20s, and that is just way way way wrong.   Did we all forget just how far one great player can take a team in college basketball?  Carmelo Anthony?  Danny Manning?  Hell, Kemba Walker?  Marcus Smart is one that level.  But lest you think this is a one person team, Markel Brown and LeBryan Nash are here too.  The only thing missing is a good big man, but they have a ton of options so if they can cobble together forty minutes of competent big man play each game (they only need one "big guy" because Nash is big enough to play the 4 unless they need to go big) this team is going to be a serious, serious contender.  Currently 25-1 or 40-1 to win the whole thing at some books.  Get in there now.

-  Speaking of, here are your contenders this year:  Oklahoma State, Michigan State, Louisville, Kentucky, Duke, Arizona, Kansas, Syracuse, VCU and Wisconsin (gross, but true.  I'm high on Dekker).  That's it.  I think UCONN could be a bit of a sleeper too, seems like everybody has forgotten about them but they have a pretty nice squad coming back.  On the opposite end, I think Indiana falls off a cliff.  I know Noah Vonleh is supposed to be a stud, but when the rest of your offense is going to reliant on Yogi Ferrell and Will Sheehey you're in trouble.  The only exception is if Evan Gordon (transfer from Arizona State) ends up being a stud, but he's on his third team of his career for a reason.  Then again, he's already 22 (and a half) so maybe he'll have some of that Mbakwe stuff going on, although I don't know how much that'll help a guard.  Plus, I hate Indiana a lot, so there's that too.

-  If you want another team that could surprise, but in more of a rising from projected bubble team to a top 5 seed, you should consider Stanford.  Nobody really is predicting them to do much, but it's basically the third year with the same core group but they added Chasson Randle last year.  Two years ago they won the NIT, then had a really disappointing season landing back in the NIT last year.  They just couldn't get over the hump, losing something like six games by five points or fewer, and I think with another year, particularly for Randle, they'll win more of those games and contend for the Pac-12 title.  And then probably make Reid Travis fall more in love with them.  Great.  We're doomed.

-  Speaking of doomed, I just want to mention the loony bin that is the Gopher Hole, where apparently if Rashad Vaughn ends up at either Iowa State or UNLV those programs are clearly crooked.  Honest to god, the prestige rankings over there are something like:
1. Michigan State
2.  Ohio State
3. Indiana
4. Michigan
5.  Duke
6.  North Carolina
7.  Louisville (shot up the rankings this year)
8.  Kansas
9.  Minnesota

Seriously.  Then there's a huge gap and everyone else is in the 100s with Iowa State at the very bottom.  That place has gotten damn near unreadable due to all the Minnesota high school talent for 2014.  Did you know that any Minnesota kid, or any kid considering Minnesota, who ends up going to a different school was clearly enticed by some sort of illegal or shady benefit?  It's true.

-  Should I elaborate on my Wisconsin thoughts a bit?  Yeah, probably since I'm saying they're going to be really good but I hate them.  Assuming Josh Gasser is fully back, he and Ben Brust give the Badgers one of the best back courts in the country.  Wait let me clarify.  I don't mean one of the best back courts in the country in terms of talent or ability or anything like that, I mean best back courts as in best fits for their team's system.  Their boring, boring system.  I don't remember the last time they had two guards who fit this well, but this is like if Jordan Taylor and Trevon Hughes played together and were white.

Then you bring in Sam Dekker, who I think is going to be an absolute monster, and this is a crazy, crazy talented team for a Wisconsin club.  The only real concern is in the front court, except that's never a concern for Wisconsin because there's always some giant hulking shlub who can go from nothing to 10 & 8 in no time flat because Bo Ryan has some sort of grinchy magical powers when it comes to 6-8 frumps.  I don't know if it'll be an old guy (Frank Kaminsky/Zach Bohanon/Evan Anderson) or a new guy (Nigel Hayes) but the last thing you ever need to worry about when it comes to Wisconsin is them getting front court production.  Add in their best 3-man back court I can remember and their boring, boring system of boring their opponent to death and the Badgers are sneaky dangerous this year.  And that sucks.

-  Overall the Big 10 is going to be tough this year, but I see four pretty distinct tiers:
TIER 1:  Michigan State
TIER 2:  Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Iowa
TIER 3:  Illinois, Indiana, Purdue, Minnesota
TIER 4:  Northwestern, Nebraska, Penn State

There's some chance for movement between these of course - Michigan State, Ohio State, or Wisconsin could end up as good as Michigan State.  Iowa or Illinois could drop.  Northwestern could jump up, but pretty much this is how I see it so I guess I'm saying the Gophers could finish anywhere from 6th to 10th, and because their schedule is so weak this year it's going to be an uphill battle to get to the NCAA Tournament again.  Obviously not impossible or anything, but keep an eye on the Maui tournament - the results there could end up being huge for the Gophers' RPI.





-  Your most likely high profile coach to get canned this year is Rick Barnes at Texas which makes sense because he's a terrible game coach.  He was always a hell of a recruiter and rode those abilities to a stretch of five Sweet 16s in eight years, but the Longhorns missed the NCAA Tournament last year (for the first time since 1998, but still it was pretty bad) with a losing season and they're poised to have an even worse year this season.  Myck Kabongo left for the NBA (or wherever, considering he didn't get drafted) and Julien Lewis and Shelden McClellan transferred, Ioannis Papapetrou signed to play pro ball overseas, and Javan Felix is injured and out for an indefinite amount of time.  With a not very strong recruiting class coming in this is going to be an ugly year.  Maybe his past success combined with the current rough circumstances will buy him some more time, but Texas is not a very patient school and also Rick Barnes is almost worse than Bruce Weber.

-  As far as Kentucky goes this year, I know a lot of people are ready to hand them the title since they have the best recruiting class of all-time coming in and some established talent already in place and frankly it's not a bad call.  It really is the greatest collection of talent I can remember in college basketball in the early entry era, at least on paper.  Calipari showed how this kind of plan can work two years ago when he won the national title, but he's had the same basic play every since he came to Kentucky and still only has the one title in four years, while missing the tournament altogether last season.

I'm not saying they shouldn't be the favorite, but there is some truth to the old saying, "not enough basketballs to go around."  That Kentucky team that won the National Championship was supremely talented, but that talent came mainly in the form of players who could impact the game without needing the ball.  Anthony Davis was a defensive force, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist was an all-around stud, Marquis Teague was happy to let others take the shots, and even Doron Lamb and Terrence Jones had no problem taking a back seat when necessary for the good of the team.  That was the problem with the John Wall team (a team that, granted, made the Elite 8) - Wall, Eric Bledsoe, Patrick Patterson, and DeMarcus Cousins were all ball dominating players.  I'm interested to see where this new group falls, because the talent level really is insane, and like nothing we've ever seen before.


-   One of the unintended consequences of all this conference realignment stuff going on is the complete weakening of the mid-majors as the bigger conference get stronger by pilfering the top programs from all over the country.  The only mid-majors worth a damn (WCC, A-10, Missouri Valley, and Mountain West if you consider them a mid-major) were either strengthened or completely untouched by realignment.  Look at once strong conferences like Conference USA, the Colonial, and the Horizon have been gutted. 

C-USA has become 16 crappy teams, everyone has fled the Colonial to the point where the team that just joined up, College of Charleston, is probably the most historically successful program in the conference, and the Horizon is now looking at Wright State and Cleveland State as it's shining stars.  Perhaps the worst is the WAC, which was never you know, awesome or anything, but it has been completely gutted.  The #1 team is now New Mexico State, but even worse the #2 squad is Idaho or Cal State Bakersfield.  Bakersfield!  I'm not even sure if any of these teams here outside of NMSU have ever been to the NCAA Tournament.  I mean they probably have or something, but I'll be damned if I remember.  Sure, this all makes for better games in the major conferences, but I'm a little sad about how crappy all the mid-majors are now.  Well, I'm over it now.

-   There is now a team in D-I basketball called the University of the Incarnate Word Cardinals (of course they're the Cardinals).  They're ineligible for the NCAA Tournament this year as they make the transition to D-I, but they're joining the Southland along with Abilene Christian and Houston Baptist.  Soon it seems the Southland will be called the Holy Conference.  Or something more clever than that.  Shut up I'm tired.

-  Lastly, here's my shot at your projected NCAA Tournament teams by conference.  We'll see how I do:
ACC (5):  Duke, Syracuse, UNC, Virginia, Notre Dame
AAC (4):  Louisville, Memphis, UCONN, Cincinnati
A-10 (3):  VCU, LaSalle, St. Louis
America East (1):  Stony Brook
Atlantic Sun (1):  Florida Gulf Coast
Big East (5):  Georgetown, Marquette, Villanova, Creighton
Big 10 (5):  Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Iowa, Indiana
Big 12 (5):  Kansas, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Baylor, Iowa State
Big Sky (1):  Weber State
Big South (1):  High Point
Big West (1):  Long Beach
C-USA (1):  Louisiana Tech
Colonial (1):  Drexel
Horizon (1):  Wright State
Ivy (1):  Harvard
Mountain West (4):  New Mexico, UNLV, Utah State, Boise State
Missouri Valley (2):  Wichita State, Indiana State
MAC (1):  Akron
MAAC (1):  Manhattan
MEAC (1):  Morgan State
NEC (1):  Bryant
Ohio Valley (1):  Belmont
Pac-12 (5):  Arizona, Oregon, UCLA, Colorado, Stanford
Patriot (1):  Lafayette
SEC (6):  Kentucky, Florida, Tennessee, Alabama, LSU, Missouri
SoCon (1):  Elon
Southland (1):  Houston State
Summit (1):  Denver
Sun Belt (1):  Western Kentucky
SWAC (1):  Texas Southern
WAC (1):  New Mexico State
WCC (2):  Gonzaga, BYU
 
You know what's crazy?  When I did this without worrying about counting how many bids I was giving out on my first pass I came out with 67 teams.  Just had to add one to round it out.   I ended up making it Indiana which was perfect because I didn't feel good about just five teams coming out of the Big 10, but I have no idea who the sixth one will be.  Indiana, like I said, has a million question marks, I hate Illinois, and I don't think Purdue or Minnesota have the pieces.  Whatever.  I'm pretty dumb anyway so say la vee.

Welcome Back to the NCAA Tournament

Well the Gophers are back in the NCAA Tournament and I gotta say despite everything else it feels damn good.  I'm also pretty pleased with the 11 seed, because it keeps the Gophers away from the #1s and #2s as long as possible, although a possible second round match-up with Florida would probably be every bit the bloodbath you'd see against a #1 or #2.  I'll be back with a preview of UCLA on Wednesday night (and then will go radio silent (except twitter) until the next week as we take our annual trip to Chicago to watch all the games from the Dayton Bar with Bogart.)  I've also been informed that the Dayton Bar is also an Ole Miss bar so I'm looking forward to watching them hopefully beat the Badgers.

Anyway, here are the toughest things I'm struggling with as a fill out my bracket:

1)  Florida or Georgetown?  There were three teams I wanted to put in the final four for sure:  Louisville, Florida, or Georgetown.  Unfortunately, now I can't do that and need to make a choice between the Gators and Hoyas since they'd play in the Sweet 16 if everything holds.  I love Florida because they have so many weapons and can score inside or out, and they compliment that with great defense.  Georgetown is also an amazing defensive team, and they have Big East Player of the Year Otto Porter who is good enough to carry that offense on his back a la John Wallace or Kemba Walker.  I hate that I have to choose, but I'm going with the Gators.

2)  What do do with Wisconsin.  I hate this.  I was all set to have both Wisconsin (because I hate them) and Kansas State (because they, and Bruce Weber, suck) to lose in the first round, but it all broke wrong.  Wisconsin gets an Ole Miss team who I don't think can compete with them, and Kansas State gets the play-in winner of LaSalle and Boise State, neither of whom is very good at all.  I almost have to take K-State and Wisconsin to both win their first round match-up, and if that happens there's no way K-State can beat the Badgers because Ryan can coach circles around Weber and the Wildcats are perfectly undisciplined enough to fall right into Wisconsin's traps.  So I have Wisconsin in the Sweet 16.  Feels really wrong and icky and dirty, but since they're always the luckiest team in America you can't rule it out.  I'm still rooting against them though.  If you don't it means you hate America.

3)  Who comes out of the West?  In every other region it's come down to one or two difficult decisions between teams I think are good enough to make the Final Four, while in the West I'm decided who is least flawed among the contenders.  Gonzaga and New Mexico are good teams no doubt, but neither has been tested as often or as consistently.  Both have some good non-conference wins of course but Gonzaga ran through a pretty crappy conference and although New Mexico played in a good MWC I just don't know if I'm buying it.  That leaves Ohio State, about whom there are no questions regarding having been tested, but unless their offense continues to be about more than DeShaun Thomas they're going to struggle.  If anything wacky happens I'm betting it's in this region, because there are some really weak teams for their seed (Arizona, K-State, Wisco, etc.).  Right now I'm going to buy the Buckeyes.  The team's offense is coming together with Thomas finding plenty of help, the defense is top-notch as usual, and the coaching is solid.

4)  Can Louisville Survive?  I think the Cardinals are the best team in the NCAA and my pick to win it all, but holy hell is the Midwest Region a bitch.  I consider Oklahoma State, St. Louis, and Michigan State as dark horse Final Four candidates and sure enough, they're all here.  The only real saving grace is that Duke is the #2 here and Duke sucks so at least they catch a break there.  Even some of the really high seeds (#12 Oregon, #14 Valparaiso) are pretty dangerous.  Whoever gets out of this region is going to have to have done some seriously good work.  Luckily Louisville hits my check list - come in on a high note (not necessarily a conference tournament victory but just playing well), good guards who can make free throws, great defense, and a team who can shoot without being dependent on the 3.  So yeah, despite the tough region Louisville is my champ.

5)  Who upsets Kansas?  I know Kansas has kind of shed that choker label, what with the two Final Fours since 2008 and all, but there's no way this version of Kansas is Final Four bound so the question becomes where do they get bounced?  I'm betting they don't get out of the first weekend with North Carolina knocking them out as one of the toughest 8 seeds I can remember.  I know Carolina has been talked about as being "down" this year and maybe they are with 10 losses, but do you realize their worst loss this year was to Texas?  And after that their worst loss was to Butler?  The rest are 3 losses to Miami, 2 to Duke, and one each to Indiana, Virginia, and NC State which means the Heels don't have a single loss to a team outside of kenpom's top 100 teams.  They're probably a little too perimeter dependent to make a significant run, but they should dispatch Villanova with ease and then in a one-time game against Kansas?  It could happen, kids, it could happen.

6)  How good is Miami? That's an important question, because I don't believe in Indiana and I don't believe in Marquette, which means it's either Miami or Syracuse coming out of the East for me.  I do expect Syracuse to beat the Hoosiers and face the Canes with a Final Four berth on the line, so it becomes a matter if I think Miami is good enough to handle the Cuse.  As it turns out, I think they are.  They're experienced enough to not get rattled and they have the guard play needed to break down the Orange's zone with four guys who are lights out from three, and they play excellent defense, rebound well, and come in off an ACC Tournament Championship.  Their free throw shooting is a bit suspect, but otherwise Miami is another team who looks really, really good and I have them in my Final Four.

That's it for now, back later with a Gophers/UCLA preview.

And we're Spent

I was going to write about everything that happened today, but I write the previews and stuff first and then go back and write the introduction and I'm really quite tired and I don't think that's something that I'm going to do.

ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCEI still have fond memories of watching the ACC Tournament every March (on TV of course).  Those were the days of Randolph Childress and Dennis Scott and Curtis Staples when every ACC team, top-to-bottom, was awesome and the conference was head and shoulders above everyone else.  They're still a quality conference (kenpom ranks them 4th) but that's because they're strong at the top.  The bottom of the ACC is horrible, which makes the tournament much less fun since you can probably pencil in the top seeds to the semi-finals.  Except Duke.  Eff them.
FAVORITE:  Duke.  Of course it's Duke.  With Ryan Kelly back Duke is one of the top five teams in the country no matter how much you hate them (and you should).  It's easy to forget, but this team is 18-0 this year when Kelly is healthy (and 9-4 without him) with wins over Ohio State, Louisville, and Miami - all Final Four contenders.  Kelly kind of sucks at everything other than shooting but there's no doubt Duke is a much better team with him than without him.  Also did you know every single Duke basketball fan also roots for the Lakers, Cowboys, Yankees, and Notre Dame football?  It's science.
SLEEPER:  Virginia.  The Cavaliers probably need to do something here to secure at at-large bid, because despite their huge wins (Duke, NC State, Wisconsin) they've balanced them with some horrendous losses (George Mason, Delaware, and 5-25 Old Dominion) and an 11-7 conference record.  They're a bit of a Wisconsin clone with their style of play (BORING) but it can work, obviously, and they've beaten every other ACC Contender so far this year other than Miami, so they can certainly win this.
W's PICK:  Duke.  This is what Duke does.  They have a great regular season, win the ACC Tournament, and then lose in one of the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament.  And I love it every year.

ATLANTIC 10 CONFERENCE
Honestly I couldn't even tell you who is in the A-10 anymore.  And even if I could, it wouldn't matter because teams are leaving next year anyway.  And did you know there are actually 16 teams in the Atlantic-10?  So the Big 10 has 12 and is about to have 14, the Big 12 has 10 teams, and the Atlantic 10 has 16.  Gotta say, I think the whole idea of naming your conference after the number of teams is looking like a pretty crappy idea.  Hell at this point we can't even name them on their geographical region any more.  We're going to have to start naming conferences after things pretty soon, like the Lamp Conference.
FAVORITE:  St. Louis.  The Billikens are streaking.  They won 12 of their last 13 (with the loss being in overtime @ Xavier) with those wins including a win over VCU and a sweep of Butler, but even so they're sneaking up on everybody.  You watch, they're going to be anywhere from a 3-6 seed when the pairings come out and I'm betting nearly everybody will have them getting knock-off the first weekend.  They're a great defensive basketball team who spreads their scoring around with five guys averaging between 9.8 and 12.9 points per game- don't underrate them.
SLEEPER:  Xavier.  A rare down year for the Musketeers sees them tied for sixth in the A-10 with seven conference losses, but in a pretty wide open conference there are plenty of teams who could get hot and win the auto-bid.  Not only did Xavier just beat St. Louis in the second-to-last game of the season, they also beat Memphis a couple of weeks ago.
W's PICK:  VCU.  I can't help it, I love VCU.  They play the game like a bunch of crazy lunatics and, in the tradition of the old UNLV and Arkansas teams, it works.  They're a bit under the radar nationally this year since they have seven losses, but those seven are Duke and Missouri in the Bahamas, @ Richmond, LaSalle, @ St. Louis, and @ Temple.  That's a pretty good list.  It serves to give them a worse seeding, which will make them a genius pick to make the Final Four, although with all their recent success I'm sure plenty of others will feel the same so maybe the real genius pick will be to take them to lose in round one.

BIG WEST CONFERENCE
Big West teams always seem to grab a nice upset or two each year.  This year Cal Poly beat UCLA, Pacific beat Xavier and St. Mary's, and UC-Irvine beat USC.  The Big West lacks the big-time sleeper NCAA Tournament threat like they had the last couple of years with Santa Barbara and Long Beach, but there are a number of teams here who could get a victory if they get the right match-up.
FAVORITE:  Long Beach.  Say what you want about Dan Monson, and I have, but he knows how to build a program to dominate a terrible conference.  The 49ers are once again the #1 seed in the Big West, and even though they aren't as dangerous a team as they were last season they'll probably win this tournament.  Although things may be unraveling at the end of the season here a bit with LBSU losing three of their last four games.
SLEEPER: UC-Irvine.  The Anteaters were horrendous at the beginning of the year, starting out at 5-7 with ugly losses to Pepperdine and Sam Houston, but buttoned it up to close out the season, finishing out with a 10-5 swing which included wins over Long Beach, Pacific, and Cal-Poly - the top three Big West teams.  Plus they're the Anteaters - that's pretty sweet.
W's PICK:  Irvine.  There's nobody here who looks like they could run away with this thing, and with the Anteaters coming into the tournament as the hottest team I may as well pick them.  Plus they're Anteaters. 

BIG SKY CONFERENCE
The Big Sky has always been one of my favorite conferences, mainly because my wife and her entire family attended school there (for at least a semester) and I've been on their campus a bunch of times and have some hats and shirts and such and since they're the dominant program they're always relevant, at least for a low-major.  And this is a low major, at least this year.  Weber (24-5) and Montana (23-6) took care of business, but there isn't a single other school in the conference that finished better than .500.
FAVORITE:  Weber State.  Technically Montana is actually the #1 seed but they lost their leading scorer to a foot injury and although they've gone 4-1 without him (the loss was in overtime to Davidson) Weber State is probably the better team now.  The Wildcats have won eleven straight, including a 14-point victory over Montana and really they haven't missed Damian Lillard much at all this season thanks to three double-digit per game scorers and the nation's #1 three-point shooting team at 42%.
SLEEPER: Montana State.  Weber and Montana are much better than the rest of the field here, but if anybody is going to crash the party it will probably be Montana State.  While the majority of the conference was just getting beat up by the two top teams, the Bobcats were able to hang tough, actually beating Weber State at home and losing by just 8 on the road, and although they were swept by Montana the Grizzlies only beat them by 3 and 5 (in overtime). 
W's PICK:   Weber State.  It feels like the Wildcats have dominated this conference, but they actually haven't been to the NCAAs since 2007 since they can't get over the hump and actually win the conference tournament.  This year should be different, and hopefully Harold Arceneaux's ghost will come back and bring them to a first round upset.  Also, for your education, it's pronounced WEE-BER.  Don't you feel like a dummy?

BIG 12 CONFERENCE[NOTE: This apparently started Wednesday night.  I had no idea]
The Big 12 is actually shockingly deep this year.  With only ten teams they have six ranked in the Top 50 according to kenpom, which is awfully damn good for a conference I thought was pretty crappy.  Of course, the teams in the top 50 include Baylor, who sucks, and Oklahoma, who sucks, so maybe the ratings aren't exactly accurate.  Besides, games are played by real players on the court, not in your mom's basement using a computer, nerd.
FAVORITE:  Kansas.  The Jayhawks won the Big 12 for the ninth straight year and are the favorite once again, but unlike previous years they aren't a prohibitive favorite as the B12 is pretty wide open this year at the top.  Kansas had losses to Oklahoma, Baylor,  and Oklahoma State this year, should have had two losses to Iowa State, and lost to the worst team in the conference TCU.  They have one of the best guards in the country in Ben McLemore, one of the best centers in the country in Jeff Withey, and very little else.  KU is very vulnerable, and that goes for the NCAA Tournament as well.
SLEEPER:  Iowa State.  The Cyclones finished with the 5 seed and will probably be in the NCAAs as a 10 or 11, but it really should have been so much better.  They lost to Kansas once on a banked in KU three-pointer and once thanks to the worst call of the season (which even B12 officials said it was a blown call), and both at Texas and Oklahoma State on last second plays.  The shoot a ton of threes, make a ton of threes, and play at a fast pace - a really fun team to watch.
W's PICK:   Oklahoma State.  The Cowboys have gone ahead and transformed themselves into a dark horse Final Four contender.  They've won 11 of their last 13, the two losses were @ Iowa State (can't fight Hilton Magic) and a double-OT loss to Kansas, and included in those eleven wins were victories over Oklahoma, Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, and Iowa State.  All you really need to know is that OK State's third best player is LeBryan Nash and he'd probably be the best player on 90% of NCAA teams (when he's engaged and paying attention, sort of has a disappearing thing going on). 

BIG TEN CONFERENCE
Well here's the biggie, and I mean that not only because the stupid Gophers are in it, but because in reality I think it's hard to argue against this as the best conference in basketball.  I mentioned the Big 12 having a bunch of well rated teams at kenpom, but the Big Ten has nine of their twelve ranked in the top 62 and nobody worse than #146.  Add in that outside of Northwestern anybody can beat anybody else on any given day and this could really be wild.  The Gophers and Michigan are fading, while Iowa and Purdue are rising which bunches the teams together even further.  There are 8 teams who wouldn't shock me if they won this.
FAVORITE:  Indiana.  It's interesting to me that Indiana started as the big favorite in the conference, we spent the entire conference season wondering who was really number one and trying to figure out how good Indiana actually was, and now that we're done the Hoosiers come out as looking like pretty clearly the best team in the Big 10, don't they?  I don't know, for my money they're clearly the top team in the conference.
SLEEPER: Illinois.  If I wasn't a Minnesota fan I'd say the Gophers since they still have a really impressive list of good wins and have played well on neutral courts, but since I am a Gopher fan I know how freaking awful they've been so I refuse to support them in any way.  I also think Illinois really sucks, but Iowa sucks worse, and everybody else is either too good to be a sleeper or too crappy to have a prayer.  Illinois shoots so many stupid three-pointers they could conceivably get hot enough to win a couple of games, even if they don't have a chance of winning this thing.  The Gophers, on the other hand, actually do have a chance to win the B10 Tournament, but I refuse to care enough to care.   That's not a typo.
W's PICK:  Michigan.  Maybe this goes back to the old Steve Fisher days, but Michigan always strikes me as a damn good tournament type team.  The Fab Five never flamed out early and made two Final Fours when they were all together, they won the first ever Big Ten Tournament, and other than last year I can't remember them ever losing early in the NCAAs.  By the way, now that I look it up to try to avoid looking like an idiot, it turns out the reason I don't remember them flaming out early is because Michigan didn't make a single NCAA Tournament between 1998 and 2009.  For serious.  That is ridiculous.

Sorry if you were looking for more Gopher specific stuff, but I don't know what to write anymore.  They're good enough to beat anybody in the Big Ten and bad enough to lose to anybody in the Big Ten.  Illinois chucks a shitload of threes, and if they're making them the Gophers are screwed.  If not, the Gophers have to execute their half court offense to win.  Does any of that sound manageable?  I just don't even know anymore.  Here are my last thoughts on the Gophers.  This is all I got, bro.  At least until I see how they play against Illinois.

Hello from Utah

What's up, nerds?  Friday the family drove for 10 hours, stopped in Kearney, Nebraska for the night at a horrific Best Western, then continued on our way the next morning for another 11 hours before finally arriving in Utah to spend Thanksgiving here with the wife's family.  Some day when I own my own plane things are going to be much easier.  Anyway we'll be running around like crazy people I'm sure so I'm not exactly sure how much sports I'll get to watch, but there'll be downtime in the evenings so I'll be able to find time to check in once in a while.  Like right now.

-  Being in Utah means that the Big 10 Network is not available, and because we are "visiting family" the best I could do was check in on my phone, read texts from Snacks and Grand Slam, and check out the stats after the game.  The 72-57 win over Richmond is a good margin and actually an easy cover, but from the looks of things this wasn't nearly that comfortable of a win.

The 19 turnovers are a terrifying amount for a team with NCAA aspirations and on the flip side turning Richmond over just 8 times is unacceptable for a team that prides itself on defense.  Yeah, Richmond's two best players are their guards who both have plenty of experience handling pressure and I get that, but I still would have expected at least double digits.  On the bright side the Gophers overall shot defense was once again outstanding (Richmond shot just 33% from the field and 20% from three) and rebounding (Gophers won, 37-20) were the difference, as well as Minnesota hitting from the field at a 57% clip.

The Gophers head into the Battle 4 Atlantis undefeated at 4-0 and this was the only game they've been remotely tested in.  Although they responded nicely, outscoring Richmond by 14 in the second half, and in the process gave the Spiders' their first loss, but it was still against a Richmond team that will probably end up in the middle of the Atlantic 10 whose three wins so far were against terrible terrible horrible teams.  I am very impressed with the Gophers' defense and rebounding (rank as the 3rd best defensive team in the country at kenpom) and it's nice to see Tubby shorten the bench and turn Mbakwe loose (9 points & 12 boards) but Duke is going to be a whole new class of opponent.  I don't feel real good about this, but I can't say I'd be completely shocked if they end up pulling this off.  Either way I can't wait to read about it the day after.

-  Sticking with the Big 10, apparently the latest rumor is Maryland and Rutgers might be joining the conference.  Since I don't really care about tradition or any of that stupid stuff and really just want the best possible basketball conference I can get with little to no regard to football, I'm on board with Maryland and would prefer they pass on Rutgers.  What I've more recently heard is that if it becomes official that Maryland is joining that Syracuse might try to jump out of the ACC, which it just joined, to come over to the Big 10 instead which is far preferable to Rutgers.  I'll have more of a post on this at some point but that's about all I got for now.

-  Here's my posts from back in the day the first time I took in a Utah State game and the first time I visited Weber State. 

-  With the first slate of tournaments done here are some observations and notes to pay attention to because I know more than you.

•  Oklahoma State won the Puerto Rico Tip-off and was the most impressive team to me looking at their victories.  They struggled to beat Akron in the opener and based on that game I thought the Cowboys looked pretty awful, but after topping the Zips in overtime they ripped off wins over Tennessee (by 17) and NC State (by 20) and announced the LeBryan Nash and Marcus Smart back-court combination as one of the best in the country.   Nash is unstoppable when he posts up another guard because of his size and skill and it now looks like he's got a lot more talent around him than we thought.  Looks like a legit team.
• The other team who impressed was Colorado which probably made you think this post was all like pro-Big 12 and stuff because you forgot Colorado was in the Pac-12 now.  On their way to winning the Charleston Classic the Buffaloes beat Dayton (meh), Baylor (great win), and Murray State (good win).  Colorado looks like it has a budding star in sophomore Askia Booker and with a good amount of returning talent, including post stud Andre Roberson, and a weak Pac-12 the Buffaloes are gonna be at the top of the conference and should be able to secure another bid this year.  
• Future Gopher opponent Florida State won the Coaches vs. Cancer classic with wins over St. Joe's (good win) and BYU (very good win).  These go a long way towards wiping out that crazy horrendous loss earlier this year to South Alabama.   The Seminoles are back to being a really good team and a road win there would be a huge win on the Gophers' March resume.
• Penn State was the only Big 10 team involved at this point and they ended up going to the consolation game in the Puerto Rico game where they were stomped by Akron to finish in sixth place.  That's a 1-2 overall record (additional loss to NC State and a win over Providence) and an altogether not very impressive tournament.  But what'd you expect from Penn State?  I mean really?

Until the next time.....

DWG NCAA Basketball Preview: Teams #38-34

Way to go, Kyle Lohse.  You might as well just come to my house and steal my money.  And it's not just Lohse, it's everybody - not only the Cardinals but the entire National League.  The Giants suck.  I'm sorry, it's just a fact, but everyone seems to just lay down and die.  The Cards, a normally excellent fielding team, have given more free runs away this series than they've scored and suddenly the Cards can't hit Barry Zito?  I can't believe I'm going to have to be a Tiger fan for the Series.  Gross.  But I sure as shit can't root for the Giants.  I feel sick.  Whatever.  Let's look at some chicks and talk some roundball.

38.  Texas Longhorns.  Similar to last year's team, this Texas squad will be deep and talented in the back court with major question marks in the front court.  Dissimilar to last year's team, they won't have last year's leading scorer in the Big 12 (at 20.1ppg) J'Covan Brown, who left the team to enter the NBA draft and then didn't get drafted like a genius.  Stupid name guy Myck Kabongo will be the key as the team's point guard and best player, but his status is currently in limbo due to some agent related nonsense.  Although the agent is the same guy who represents Tristan Thompson and Cory Joseph and Kabongo is also part of that bizarre Canada/Texas pipeline, so I'm pretty sure he's definitely guilty of whatever.  I believe suspension is the only answer.  

37.  Miami Hurricanes.  It's very possible I'm overrating the Canes since my ranking for them (particularly ahead of FSU) doesn't seem to jibe with most others I've seen, but I like a lot about this team.  Reggie Johnson and Kenny Kadji are both double-double threats at all times and averaged 22 points and 13 rebounds per game between them.  Johnson is 6-10, 292 lbs.  Kadji is 6-11, 242 lbs.  They're both seniors so they aren't about to fuck around this season.  They do lose two of last year's three starting guards, but they get by far the best one back in Durand Scott, and Shane Larkin (yes, Barry's kid) is going to be in his second year and can give the Canes a real live point guard for the first time in a while.  He was one of the best point guard prospects a year ago and had a decent freshman year, but it's time for him to step up to the plate and go yard from the duguot with a rosin bag before the Hurricanes boot one and strike out in the bottom of the ninth with the bases loaded.

36.  Valparaiso Crusaders.  Valpo won the Horizon regular season title last year before getting crushed by Detroit in the Horizon Tournament Final, but with their top two players and lots of seniors back they are the favorite to take the conference again, and hopefully (for them) not flame out again.  And if they make the tournament you'll hear way too much about them because, admittedly, they're kind of an interesting team.  The coach is Bryce Drew who hit the second greatest shot in NCAA Tournament history (behind that dude from Northwestern State who hit the shot to knock out Iowa because fuck Iowa).  Their best player (and last season's conference player of the year) was a finalist to make the Australian Olympic team.  Their second best player has played internationally for both the Canary Islands and the Netherlands.   They have a dude from Jamaica.  They have guys who transferred from Virginia Tech, Ole Miss, Indiana, Hawaii, Cal, South Florida, and Rice.  Seriously it's ridiculous.  I haven't seen this many transfers since Tark's days at Fresno.  Plus they have a guy with the last name Buggs, and since we all know Charles Buggs is going to be a superstar I can only assume the same for a guy who I assume is related.

35.  Oklahoma State Cowboys. The Cowboys season will basically come down to what kind of changes LeBryan Nash made this offseason.  Nash was the team's best player last season, should be again this year, and is probably the best player to suit up for OSU since JamesOn Curry.  The bad news, however, is that he shot an appalling 39% including just 24% from three despite jacking up the second most shots on the squad (behind the departed bomber Keiton Page).  He balanced out his poor shooting and shot selection by averaging just 1.5 assists per game and getting almost no steals.  He's insanely talented and if he can play smarter and maybe hit a jumper here and there these guys should be in line for an NCAA bid.  And hey, if everything works out he can become the next JamesOn Curry and enter the NBA draft after his junior year and then fail to get drafted in the first round.  It's good to have dreams.

 34.  Stanford Cardinal.  Yes, the dreaded Cardinal.  Enders of the Gophers season and world champions of the NIT.  And, as we all know, winning the NIT is a strong predictor of future success the following season.  I'm just kidding of course, it means exactly jack shit.  More than anything it's just says you were a crappy team that couldn't be bothered to get into the NCAA Tournament, and barring a stellar recruiting class coming in you're probably still terrible.  And they are.  They have a good back court in Chasson Randle and Aaron Bright and some decently experienced guys, but nothing really special.  Which is why they're ranked 34th and are incredibly boring.  Or maybe they're ranked 34th because they're boring?  I don't know.  I'm tired and hate Kyle Lohse.

Now that I think about it, Detroit gets to set their rotation with Verlander first and I assume Scherzer second and will have the option to go with JV three times.  The Giants will have to go with Lincecum and Zito to start it off and will only get to throw Cain once.  I'm thinking we make some money on the Tigers.  We goin' Sizzla.


Previous:
Teams #68-60
Teams #59-53
Teams #52-47 
Teams #46-39

Week in Review - 12/5/2011

There's a preview of Appalachian State, the Gophers next opponent, at the very bottom of this post.  Huzzah!

WHO WAS AWESOME

1.  Rodney Williams.  I've been waiting forever for some positive feelings about Williams, and now I am finally feeling them.  He seems like a completely different player at the 4.  It's like before he was Mikey in the beginning of Swingers and now he's like Mikey at the end doing the twirly-whirly dance with Heather Graham and hanging up on that manipulative bitch Michelle.  Really though, he's always had the tools like the bear - the big fangs and those fucking claws or whatever - and he just didn't know how to kill the bunny.  Now he knows how to kill the bunny and dunk right on it's stupid head.  Good god, that's the perfect analogy.  Sometimes you people who read this should really be sending me money for that kind of insight.



2. Ohio State Buckeyes.  Nobody cares that the beat UT-Pan American by 30 even without Sullinger because I mean, come on, it's UT-PA, but that win over Duke earlier this week was like woah.  I mean, I did expect the Buckeyes to win and a double-digit win wouldn't shock me, but this was a thoroughly kick their ass from tip to final whistle pick your score kind of game.  I was impressed by OSU after they beat Florida in kind of a grind it out game, but they didn't quite have the look of a National Champion in that one.  Not so against Duke, where they looked like the most complete team in the country.  Really, there's just so much talent here.  Take away their two best players (Sully and Buford) and they're still probably a top 10 team.  Ridiculous.  With Duke and Florida out of the way, only the game at Kansas on Saturday stands in the way of an undefeated non-conference slate.  And hell, they win that one they might very well finish the year unbeaten, because they're far and away better than anybody else in the Big 10.  Which probably means they'll lose to Northwestern or some such nonsense.

3. Xavier Musketeers.  I feel like I talk about Xavier too much but I just really like that program and what they do year after year, and I really really like Tu Holloway (although I liked him better when he went by Terrell).  Their win over Purdue at home on Saturday was more of a ho-hum kind of win, not because it's not a quality victory but because it's what they were supposed to do (although falling behind by 19 in the second half and coming back to win probably says some positive things), but add that in with a very nice win at Vanderbilt that included scoring the final 4 points of the game to send it to OT and then scoring the first 12 points of overtime.  Xavier is a perennial sweet 16 team, and I've kind of been waiting for that big breakthrough squad to get them into the Final Four.  Is this the year?  No.   

4.  Missouri Valley.  For some reason I've always disliked the MVC.  I don't know why since I like all the other smaller conferences.  It's just like a rainbow - nobody can explain why it happens, it just does.  With that being said, however, the MVC is looking tough and annoying again like the old days.  This past week alone Creighton went to San Diego State and got a tough road win (and they stomped Nebraska) and Wichita State beat UNLV by 20 - yes, the same Rebels who beat North Carolina.  Additionally, Northern Iowa has just one loss and Indiana State finished third in the Old Spice Classic.  Things fall off in a hurry after those four teams (sorry Drake guy), but at the very least both Creighton and Wichita should be in the hunt for an NCAA bid, while UNI and Ind State can get in the conversation with a strong run through the league.  All of which means we'll probably have to hear a bunch of annoying crap about how good the MVC always is.  Like this post, which I guess means I'm part of the problem.  Talk about self-loathing.

5.  Oklahoma State Cowboys.  Although part of me feels like I should give Indiana some propers to the Hoosiers for their 8-0 start and tough road win at NC State, I'm going to go with a more wait and see (as in let's see if they can keep it within 20 against Kentucky this weekend) and instead give some props to screwed over Oklahoma State footballers, who stomped the rival Oklahoma Sooners 44-10 in the Big 12 Championship to finish the year at 11-1 and will now have a shot at the National Title against LSU - except not really because the BCS is instead giving everyone a rematch of a game played earlier this year between LSU and Alabama and the Cowboys have to play Stanford in the who cares Bowl instead.  So stupid.  LSU already beat Alabama, so let's say Bama beats LSU - can they really claim to be the best team?  They split.  If LSU plays Okla State it's still not as good as a tournament, but still better than a damn rematch.  Honestly, the end of the year crap is probably reason #1 that I don't get into college football as much as I do college hoops or baseball.  Actually reason #1 is my wife would kill me, but the end of the year stuff is a strong #2.


WHO SUCKED

1.  Dayton Flyers. Jesus Christ, Dayton, could you guys fuck things up any further?  You're a terrible team and a terrible program with terrible fans and no matter you'll never be more than 2nd class in your own conference, but hey, winning the Old Spice Classic, although not against top tier talent, is still some nice momentum.  Then you turn around and lose to Buffalo AT HOME by 30!!  And then lose by 20 at Murray State?!?!?!!  Instead of fighting for an NCAA bid, this team will be lucky to get an invite to the CIT, and they're who beat the Gophers?  This is the shitty shit box team who destroyed Trevor Mbakwe's career and the hopes and dreams of all the children of the world?  Is there any doubt that Dayton = satan?  It even rhymes!  If I go to Chicago again for the NCAA Tournament I'm burning that Dayton bar to the ground.  After I have their tasty wings of course.

2.  Washington Huskies.  Pretty sad considering how much I love the brand of circus ball the Huskies play, but it's becoming clear this just isn't a very good team this year.  Well I suppose I could be overreacting because they are 4-2, but they've only had two opponents who even resemble good teams and they lost to them both - St. Louis a week or so ago and Nevada this weekend.  I suppose it's awfully difficult to replace Captain Circus Ball (Isaiah Thomas) and then keep playing the same kind of circus ball, especially when one of your new main ball handlers is a freshman (Tony Wroten, currently averaging 4.5 turnovers per game) and the other is still trying to work his way all the way back from an ACL tear (Abdul Gaddy).  But the good news is they still play stupid fast and the Pac-10 is awful so they'll probably be back in the NCAA Tournament to thrill us with a couple games that go 190+ combined.  Don't expect too much though, there's little chance they survive the first weekend.  No matter how much I want them to.

4.  Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets.  Why, oh why, does Georgia Tech always suck so bad?  I have such fond memories of Lethal Weapon 3 (the original - Anderson, Oliver, Scott - not the stupid imitation shitty South Carolina group who tried to steal the nickname) that I still have some leftover fandom for the Jackets, but they're just terrible this year - again.  They're 4-4 and we aren't even at conference play yet, and the losses are against St. Joe's (bad), LSU (terrible), Northwestern (ok), and Tulane (bad).  If it wasn't for that win over VCU in the Charleston Classic, they'd be in the running for worst BCS Conference team in the country.  I mean not only did they lose to Tulane, but they were actually the underdogs.  Embarrassing.  Freshmen Julian Royal, sophomore Jason Morris, and juniors Mfon Udofia, Glen Rice, and Kammeon Holsey are all top 100 types of recruits.  Talent - yes.  Experience - yes.  Results - emphatically no.  This would be why what's his face got fired.

5.  Houston Cougars.  It's like something out of a book or a movie, isn't it?  Lightly recruited QB out of high school goes to to his hometown school, the only D-I program to even offer him a scholarship.  After redshirting his first year, he's in a big QB competition his second year which he finally wins towards the end of the year, and then dominates his sophomore year, winning the Conference Player of the Year.  After another great season, he goes into his senior year with a chance to break all kinds of NCAA records, but ends up tearing his ACL.  After being granted a sixth year by the NCAA, he breaks those records and goes on to lead his undermanned team to a an undefeated season by directing the top scoring offense in the nation, and puts his team in a position to make a BCS Bowl for the first time I assume.  All that stands in their way is the Conference USA Championship Game at Southern Miss, so the QB takes his heavily favored squad up against the Golden Eagles and THEY GET FUCKING LIT UP like the Vikings in an NFC Championship Game.  Seriously, Houston got destroyed and scored the fewest points they have all year.  Nice job, Keenum.  Enjoy the CFL.


So anyway the Gophers play Appalachian State Tuesday night and yawn.  App State is actually supposed to be one of the best teams in the Southern Conference, but unfortunately this isn't the same SoCon from back when Davidson was Tournament Killer and Charleston was upsetting people all over the place, and the rest of the conference has become cupcake city.  In fact, the SoCon ranks as one of the handful of worst conference in America according to kenpom.com (23rd out of 32), and its best win outside of those two schools is Elon's upset of a terrible South Carolina team.

So yeah, a mid-tier team from a low tier conference.  Great.  The Mountaineers are 4-3 this year, but two of those wins are over non-D1 schools and the other two were versus Tennessee Tech and Greensboro.  Also the best team they've played this year is East Carolina who is awful and they beat Appalachian State by 20.  The only exciting part about the game, other than watching the Gophers of course, is that the Mountaineers do have preseason SoCon Player of the Year candidate Omar Carter, a senior guard whose scoring average so far this year would be his career low since he suddenly can't shoot anymore.  Although he has gone 15-26 shooting the past two games, so maybe he's on his way back.  I could go on and describe several other decent players, but who cares?  Cupcake city, baby.

Gophers 80, Mountaineers 53

Also I had a whole conversation with Bear about the Gophers and how good "Rodney White" has looked recently and he didn't realize until he sent me an email this morning that he had the name wrong lololololol.

NCAA Hoops Preview - The Big 12 or whatever

Remember how I said I was going to do a preview of a new conference each Wednesday or Friday and laid out that whole schedule?  Well forget all that.  I don't do organization well.  I'm just going to run 'em out there whenever I see fit in whatever order I fell like.

We're starting with the Big 12, a conference that will have a significantly different look this year and I don't just mean that they tossed two of their worst hoops programs in Colorado and Nebraska.  The real intrigue here is that the two tradition powers of the Big 12, Kansas and Texas, were both hit hard by graduations and early defections to the NBA if it ever exists again.  Between the two schools they lost 9 starters, and although both are capable of rebuilding quickly and still have plenty of talent, the conference is more wide open than it's been since I can remember.  Of course, it's looking like it won't exist for much longer, but for this season at least it will be interesting.  With an 18-game true round robin schedule, I expect these teams to beat up each other pretty good, and any school that can manage double digit wins is going to be in good shape.

1.  BAYLOR BEARS.  If he had entered the draft Perry Jones would have been a top-3 pick, so his return to Waco is huge for Baylor.  He's an absolute beast who is tough to handle inside but can also play the perimeter (although not much of a shooter) and is practically a lock for B12 player of the year, especially with Lace Dunn gone so he will become the absolute focal point of the offense.  They return everybody else inside and picked up a couple of stud freshman in wings Quincy Miller (#7 overall according to Rivals, spurned Duke to sign with the Bears) and Deuce Bello (#54 overall and has a sweet name) so they're pretty well loaded.  Their frontline of Jones, Miller, and Quincy Acy might be tops in the country.  If they can get solid PG play from either the returning A.J. Walton (meh) or JuCo transfer Pierre Jackson, who led his team to the JuCo championship, they're a major contender to win the whole thing.

2.  MISSOURI TIGERS.  With so much talent having vacated the conference the door is open for the Tigers and their five returning starters - yes five.  Of course, the biggest question is what happens when you take the players who are well suited to run Mike Anderson's crazy circus ball system and give them a new coach, one whose Miami team last year was one of the slowest in the NCAA.  Assuming Frank Haith has the brains to realize you fit your system to the players in this case, hopefully he turns them lose because with Marcus Denmon, Michael Dixon, and the Pressey brothers running the break with Ricardo Ratliffe, Laurence Bowers, and Kim English filling the lanes these guys are one of the most fun groups to watch in all of the NCAA.  Of course, if my knowledge of most coaches is right he'll try to force them to slow down and at least one player will quit or get suspended for "conduct detrimental to the team" which in this case will mean getting pissed at the coach.  This is just like Above the Rim.    

3.  KANSAS JAYHAWKS.  Kansas lost a ton of talent this year and 75% of their scoring from last year, so they'll rely heavily on Tyshawn Taylor and Thomas Robinson, and that's not necessarily a bad thing, assuming they can improve upon last year.  Both were solid players last year, but are going to have to become the main men on offense if Kansas is going to make any kind of run.  Sophomore guards Travis Releford and Elijah Johnson were top 100 guys coming out of high school, as are newcomers Naadir Tharpe and Ben McLemore, but they're all guards.  The biggest issue for Kansas is on the interior, because outside of Robinson they're paper thin.  They have a big seven-footer in Jeff Withey, but he's only played 207 minutes in his first two years in Lawrence.  The talent on the outside will get them to the NCAA Tournament, but I wouldn't expect much of a run unless somebody really steps up to help Robinson in the paint.

4.  TEXAS A&M AGGIES.  Khris Middleton is one of my favorite players to watch, and also one of my least favorite players to watch.  When things are going well he's a born scorer who can hit from outside, inside, or drive to the hole and get to the line.  However when the opposition makes a concerted effort to take him out of the game it works far, far too well, such as when he shot 0-9 and didn't even bother getting to the line because he just shot jumpers all game (I watched this one and it was lame).  But he's no doubt a special talent and he doubled his scoring average from his freshman to sophomore year, so if he worked that hard again this offseason you might be looking at a B12 player-of-the-year type season.   

5.  IOWA STATE CYCLONES.  What to think about Iowa State?  It's tough, partially because I'm biased since I consider them my second favorite college team, partially because how do you not like the mayor, partially because I love his strategy of not caring about a player's off the court baggage and just bringing in talent, and partially because when you ignore players' off the court baggage things can implode in a hurry.   I mean you know all about Royce White's talent and watched Chris Allen for what feels like 10 years, but did you realize transfer Anthony Booker from So Ill was ranked the #43 freshman in the country when he came into school?  And Chris Babb from Penn State averaged nearly 10 points per game as a sophomore?  They're going to struggle finding a ball handler with Diante Garrett graduating, but this could be a spectacular team.  Or they could end up with a couple of guys kicked out, a fight amongst their own team, and a massive flame out of a season.  Either way, this should be fun to watch. 

6.  OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS.  I've flipped these guys with Texas a few times, and that's mainly because I can't quite figure out what to think of OSU (or Texas, actually).  On the one hand, the bring in a freshman in wing LeBryan Nash who instantly becomes their best player (#6 overall recruit by Rivals) so that ups their talent level.  On the other hand, he needs the ball in his hands to be effective, their other stud recruit is a point guard Cezar Guerrero (#71 overall) who is described as more of a scorer than distributor, and their best returning player, Keiton Page, is a big-time chucker who led the team in shot attempts despite hitting just 37% of his shots.  See where I'm going with this?  They might be a more talented team this year, but I'd be concerned about if there are enough balls to go around. 

7.  TEXAS LONGHORNS.  I'm struggling to see any way they can compete this year.  I know Myck Kabongo is a total stud and basically pushed Cory Joseph out the door, but I am, everything is gone from last year and even though this year's recruiting class is very good it's not a ready made team like Kentucky seems to pull in each year.  I mean, literally the only returner of any consequence is J'Covan Brown and he averaged double figures scoring and went for over 20 in both NCAA tournament games, but that was as a complimentary player, and now he's going to have to be Mr. Offense.  I feeling like I might be selling them a bit short because it seems like no matter what the Longhorns are always able to end having a great team that flames out in the end, but I'm really not seeing it this year.  Seeing as how Rick Barnes isn't exactly known for coaching teams up, looks like 7th place and the NIT to me.

8.  KANSAS STATE WILDCATS.  So here's Kansas State.  A terrible program that never did anything, and Frank Martin manages to snag Michael Beasley, Bill Walker, and Jake Pullen - bam, instant contender.  Well guess what?  With Pullen's graduation they're all gone.  Some say Martin has turned K-State into a whole new program, one who can contend with the big boys in the conference (wherever they end up).  I say they're wrong, and K-State is heading back to dumpsville - unless they end up in C-USA or the Mountain West or some new conference made out of leftovers, but if they're in a major conference it's not going to be pretty, starting this year where I'd be stunned if they managed even an NIT bid.  Should have taken the Miami job, Frank.  A chance to go back to your home town right as your program is about to fall off a cliff?  Ouch.  This is like Shelly Long leaving Cheers, only kind of the opposite.

9.  OKLAHOMA SOONERS.  Ouch.  From 30 wins two years ago to just 27 in the past couple of seasons combined along with NCAA infractions and a new coach.  Also, if I told you there was much talent here I'd be lying.  Lon Kruger has a long road back to make Oklahoma relevant, but at least if they move on to the Pac-12 (14/16) they'll get to play those crappy teams a bunch of times, so that'll help.  Seriously, though the only guy I remember from Oklahoma last year is that Brian Cardinal wannabe Cade Davis and he's gone so you can just picture me shrugging my shoulders and we can move on.

10.  TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS.  Riddle me this - what happens when a terrible team loses four starters (it's four top scorers, top rebounder, and 3 top assist men) who accounted for over 2/3rds of the team's scoring and are replacing them with a JC dude and a transfer from Utah?  Well we're about to find out and I have a feeling it's not going to be pretty.  Assuming Billy Gillespie isn't drunk all the time I'm sure he'll improve their fortunes (wherever they end up), but this is going to be a rough year.  Good thing nobody gives a crap about this team.


Well there we are.  The first college basketball preview of the year.  As Brian Fantana would say, "It really revs my engine."  Seriously though, I need this.  I can't even watch the Twins anymore.  At like, 2pm this afternoon Snacks texted me something about how Parmalee can hit and I was like, "Dude, I totally forgot they were even playing a day game" and he was like, "I know.  I only even saw the score because I was going on mlb.com to check and see if the Red Sox were losing because it would be funny if they collapsed."  It's so funny and sad I'm going to go kick a baby.

Seriously though, Missouri at 75-1 to win the National Championship is worth throwing a couple bucks down.  They'll end up a 3-4 seed.

Big 12 College Basketball 2010 Preview

That's right kids, I'm back to give my NCAA basketball previews, conference by conference, for another year, because it's about that time, to bring forth the rhythm and the rhyme, I'm a get mine so get yours, I want to see sweat comin' out your pores.  I'm starting with the Big 12 this year because that's where my sleeper for the NCAA Championship resides.  Come on, swing it. 

1.  Baylor Bears.  And this would be that sleeper.  They did lose three starters off the Elite 8 team from last year, including lottery pick Ekpe Udoh and starting point man Tweety Carter, but the pieces are in place for a deep run by the Bears.  LaceDarius Dunn is back, might be the best guard in the nation, and is capable of taking over a game all by himself, and talented freshman center Perry Jones is the type of freshman who can carry a team and will be one of the top newcomers in the country.  The key to how far they'll be able to go will be the development of a couple of sophomore guards who were bit players last year but were both highly regarded recruits.  If either Nolan Dennis or A.J. Walton can fill that Tweety Carter role the Bears could absolutely be cutting down the nets at the conclusion of the season.  Actually I'd even go so far as to say probably.  They'll probably be cutting down the nets.  Current odds:  30-1.  You might want to throw a sawbuck on that.

2.  Kansas Jayhawks.  Like Baylor, the Jayhawks lose a lot of firepower from last year, but it's not like Kansas just goes around recruiting stiffs - there are a ton of very talented guys who will be asked to step up their contributions this year, and based on pedigree they shouldn't have a problem doing it.  Assuming Josh Selby ends up being declared eligible they will be a national contender, and even if he isn't they should be a quality, deep team.  I would guess he'll be cleared, being that this is Kansas and not Kentucky.  Expect Kansas to be one of the best teams in the country and a top seed, only to be upset in the tournament for something like the 9th time in the last 10 years, not counting that year they won of course.

3.  Kansas State Wildcats.  Expect these guys to be media darlings this year (one magazine I've looked at picked them first in the conference) due to their crazy eyed coach and Jake Pullen and his beard.  I absolutely love Pullen, and have written about him on this blog a couple of times, but it will be interesting to see how he responds without backcourt mate Denis Clemente this year.  Still, besides Pullen there are a bunch of athletic, talented big men and wings, and if a couple of them can improve upon last year (particularly Wally Judge, a top 20 recruit according to Rivals a year ago who played only 12 minutes per game last year) they could go far. Also you know that mafia looking coach of there's has mob ties, so if anybody hears anything about a fix involving K-State can you let me know so I can throw some dollars at it?

4.  Missouri Tigers.  Mizzou took a hit when prized recruit (#12 according to Rivals) Tony Mitchell was ruled ineligible for the fall semester, but there's still plenty of talent returning including the team's three top scorers from last year in guards Kim English and Marcus Denmon and forward Laurence Bowers.  They are pretty well stocked in both the backcourt and the frontcourt and have a very nice recruiting class coming in, even without Mitchell.  The Tigers traditionally play an awesomely fun 40-minutes of hell type of ball, and with their stockpile of guards and athletic wings they're loaded for a nice run.  Or, more accurately, 40 minutes of run per game. 

5.  Texas Longhorns.  It pains me to praise them after they stole Cory Joseph from the Gophers, but the Longhorns will be much the same - supremely talented - despite losing four starters.  Will that talent gel, like in 2008, or will it fizzle into disappointment as it did last year?  Don't know, but it should be fun to watch.  Joseph and Tristan Thompson are two of the top freshman in the country.  Jai Lucas was a highly touted PG out of high school who has disappointed but is looking for a new start.  Jordan Hamilton looks like a likely breakout star.  Gary Johnson has been an excellent sidekick for years, but will finally be a feature player.  Like I said, lots of talent.  Let's see if Rick Barnes screws this one up, because you know there's only three things in Texas:  steers, queers, and underachieving sports teams.

6.  Texas Tech Red Raiders.  I'm not sure how talented they are, but they are definitely experienced with five of their top six players returning, all of whom are going to be seniors.  Mike Singletary (not that one) was talented enough to score 43 against TAMU a two years ago and score 20 in a game ten times last year, and John Roberson led the Big 12 in assists last season.  With some good talent coming in to join  the experienced old people this team will probably end up being tough to beat.  They aren't going to be any kind of real contender for the national title or anything, but they'll probably upset some of the top conference contenders at home.

7.  Colorado Buffaloes.  Colorado actually has a chance to make the NCAA Tournament this year, which seems weird to say but they have a couple of supremely talented players in Alec Burks and Cory Higgins.  Burks actually flirted with the NBA draft this offseason after winning Big 12 Freshman of the Year, but ultimately returned for another year, and Higgins has been All-Big 12 third team twice in his career.  If these two get any help, any help at (from, say, former Gopher recruit Austin Dufault) all they'll threaten to make the NCAA Tournament and will be the best Buffaloes team in a long time.  Although I suppose that isn't saying much since they have just two tournament appearances (and one win) since 1970.  So they're due.

8.  Texas A&M Aggies.  While most of the other teams above them in this ranking seem to have at least one of their key contributors back, the Aggies are going to be looking for some role players to step up.  David Loubeau gets the most press as a possible breakout type, but Khris Middleton is the guy I expect to make major strides and become a star.  He hit double-figures in scoring in four of the Aggies last five games last season after getting there just six times prior, while hitting 12 of 22 three-pointers.  He's a three point marksman who is also an athletic scorer.  Or, as I like to call it, a perfect basketball player.  Yes, I'm saing Middleton basketball player heading towards multiple All-American teams and a likely Hall-of-Fame NBA career.  What of it? 

9.  Oklahoma State Cowboys.  James Anderson won't be easy to replace, and losing second leading scorer Obi Muonelo is an extra little kick in the teeth, but there is some good talent returning.  Marshall Moses showed some nice flashes last year, and Keiton Page is fun in that mad-bomber kind of way.  Still, the key to the season might be freshman Michael Cobbins, one of the top ranked power forwards in the country according to Rivals, and the kind of player, if as good as advertised, who could take this team from "meh" to "huh."

10.  Nebraska Cornhuskers.  We here in Big Ten country will get to see them just a bit more often in the future, and hopefully for them the move will help their talent level because this is one of the more moribund college hoops programs in the country.  That isn't to say there's no talent here - Brian Diaz is a nice seven-footer who is just a sophomore and had some high quality games for the Huskers last year- but it's not the kind of talent that's going to compete for anything meaningful.  Again.  Hopefully the conference move and a new stadium will help upgrade the talent level because, frankly, we've already got a Penn State.

11.  Iowa State Cyclones.  Freddy Hoiberg is certainly in for two very different years the next couple of seasons.  Next year, with an interesting recruiting class this year (including eligibility risk Calvin Godfrey) and next joining up with Big Ten problem children Royce White and Chris Allen there will be a lot of eyes looking to see how his "take a chance on anybody with talent, despite the baggage" strategy works out.  This year, however, there's no pressure and no worries because there isn't much talent (although I am a fan of Diante Garrett) and only four players are back from last year.  I am betting things turn around in a hurry with Hoiberg and his risk/reward strategy, however.  Or blow up in his face like Royce White at the Mall of America.

12.  Oklahoma Sooners.  Losing your three best players (Willie Warren, Tiny Gallon, Tommy Mason-Griffin) who made up basically your entire offense is going to hurt, but perhaps not as much as any possible ramifications coming down from the NCAA due to the Tiny Gallon situation.  Capel is an excellent young coach, but with nearly the entire starting lineup gone and nobody signed for after this season things aren't exactly looking up in Norman.  There is some talent in the large recruiting class coming in this year, with an elite-level player in Cameron Clark, so if they can squeak past the NCAA hit squad things could turn around, but for this year they'll probably be a scrappy, last-place team that scares a lot of conference opponents at times, but loses out on talent at the end.  Like Gopher football, except without the scaring opponents part.  Or the scrappy part.  

If you came here for baseball talk, what with the playoffs and all, don't worry your pretty little head. I'm cooking up a little ALDS primer, coming your way tomorrow. Or possibly Wednesday morning. Here's a preview: We're doomed.