Big 12 College Basketball 2010 Preview

That's right kids, I'm back to give my NCAA basketball previews, conference by conference, for another year, because it's about that time, to bring forth the rhythm and the rhyme, I'm a get mine so get yours, I want to see sweat comin' out your pores.  I'm starting with the Big 12 this year because that's where my sleeper for the NCAA Championship resides.  Come on, swing it. 

1.  Baylor Bears.  And this would be that sleeper.  They did lose three starters off the Elite 8 team from last year, including lottery pick Ekpe Udoh and starting point man Tweety Carter, but the pieces are in place for a deep run by the Bears.  LaceDarius Dunn is back, might be the best guard in the nation, and is capable of taking over a game all by himself, and talented freshman center Perry Jones is the type of freshman who can carry a team and will be one of the top newcomers in the country.  The key to how far they'll be able to go will be the development of a couple of sophomore guards who were bit players last year but were both highly regarded recruits.  If either Nolan Dennis or A.J. Walton can fill that Tweety Carter role the Bears could absolutely be cutting down the nets at the conclusion of the season.  Actually I'd even go so far as to say probably.  They'll probably be cutting down the nets.  Current odds:  30-1.  You might want to throw a sawbuck on that.

2.  Kansas Jayhawks.  Like Baylor, the Jayhawks lose a lot of firepower from last year, but it's not like Kansas just goes around recruiting stiffs - there are a ton of very talented guys who will be asked to step up their contributions this year, and based on pedigree they shouldn't have a problem doing it.  Assuming Josh Selby ends up being declared eligible they will be a national contender, and even if he isn't they should be a quality, deep team.  I would guess he'll be cleared, being that this is Kansas and not Kentucky.  Expect Kansas to be one of the best teams in the country and a top seed, only to be upset in the tournament for something like the 9th time in the last 10 years, not counting that year they won of course.

3.  Kansas State Wildcats.  Expect these guys to be media darlings this year (one magazine I've looked at picked them first in the conference) due to their crazy eyed coach and Jake Pullen and his beard.  I absolutely love Pullen, and have written about him on this blog a couple of times, but it will be interesting to see how he responds without backcourt mate Denis Clemente this year.  Still, besides Pullen there are a bunch of athletic, talented big men and wings, and if a couple of them can improve upon last year (particularly Wally Judge, a top 20 recruit according to Rivals a year ago who played only 12 minutes per game last year) they could go far. Also you know that mafia looking coach of there's has mob ties, so if anybody hears anything about a fix involving K-State can you let me know so I can throw some dollars at it?

4.  Missouri Tigers.  Mizzou took a hit when prized recruit (#12 according to Rivals) Tony Mitchell was ruled ineligible for the fall semester, but there's still plenty of talent returning including the team's three top scorers from last year in guards Kim English and Marcus Denmon and forward Laurence Bowers.  They are pretty well stocked in both the backcourt and the frontcourt and have a very nice recruiting class coming in, even without Mitchell.  The Tigers traditionally play an awesomely fun 40-minutes of hell type of ball, and with their stockpile of guards and athletic wings they're loaded for a nice run.  Or, more accurately, 40 minutes of run per game. 

5.  Texas Longhorns.  It pains me to praise them after they stole Cory Joseph from the Gophers, but the Longhorns will be much the same - supremely talented - despite losing four starters.  Will that talent gel, like in 2008, or will it fizzle into disappointment as it did last year?  Don't know, but it should be fun to watch.  Joseph and Tristan Thompson are two of the top freshman in the country.  Jai Lucas was a highly touted PG out of high school who has disappointed but is looking for a new start.  Jordan Hamilton looks like a likely breakout star.  Gary Johnson has been an excellent sidekick for years, but will finally be a feature player.  Like I said, lots of talent.  Let's see if Rick Barnes screws this one up, because you know there's only three things in Texas:  steers, queers, and underachieving sports teams.

6.  Texas Tech Red Raiders.  I'm not sure how talented they are, but they are definitely experienced with five of their top six players returning, all of whom are going to be seniors.  Mike Singletary (not that one) was talented enough to score 43 against TAMU a two years ago and score 20 in a game ten times last year, and John Roberson led the Big 12 in assists last season.  With some good talent coming in to join  the experienced old people this team will probably end up being tough to beat.  They aren't going to be any kind of real contender for the national title or anything, but they'll probably upset some of the top conference contenders at home.

7.  Colorado Buffaloes.  Colorado actually has a chance to make the NCAA Tournament this year, which seems weird to say but they have a couple of supremely talented players in Alec Burks and Cory Higgins.  Burks actually flirted with the NBA draft this offseason after winning Big 12 Freshman of the Year, but ultimately returned for another year, and Higgins has been All-Big 12 third team twice in his career.  If these two get any help, any help at (from, say, former Gopher recruit Austin Dufault) all they'll threaten to make the NCAA Tournament and will be the best Buffaloes team in a long time.  Although I suppose that isn't saying much since they have just two tournament appearances (and one win) since 1970.  So they're due.

8.  Texas A&M Aggies.  While most of the other teams above them in this ranking seem to have at least one of their key contributors back, the Aggies are going to be looking for some role players to step up.  David Loubeau gets the most press as a possible breakout type, but Khris Middleton is the guy I expect to make major strides and become a star.  He hit double-figures in scoring in four of the Aggies last five games last season after getting there just six times prior, while hitting 12 of 22 three-pointers.  He's a three point marksman who is also an athletic scorer.  Or, as I like to call it, a perfect basketball player.  Yes, I'm saing Middleton basketball player heading towards multiple All-American teams and a likely Hall-of-Fame NBA career.  What of it? 

9.  Oklahoma State Cowboys.  James Anderson won't be easy to replace, and losing second leading scorer Obi Muonelo is an extra little kick in the teeth, but there is some good talent returning.  Marshall Moses showed some nice flashes last year, and Keiton Page is fun in that mad-bomber kind of way.  Still, the key to the season might be freshman Michael Cobbins, one of the top ranked power forwards in the country according to Rivals, and the kind of player, if as good as advertised, who could take this team from "meh" to "huh."

10.  Nebraska Cornhuskers.  We here in Big Ten country will get to see them just a bit more often in the future, and hopefully for them the move will help their talent level because this is one of the more moribund college hoops programs in the country.  That isn't to say there's no talent here - Brian Diaz is a nice seven-footer who is just a sophomore and had some high quality games for the Huskers last year- but it's not the kind of talent that's going to compete for anything meaningful.  Again.  Hopefully the conference move and a new stadium will help upgrade the talent level because, frankly, we've already got a Penn State.

11.  Iowa State Cyclones.  Freddy Hoiberg is certainly in for two very different years the next couple of seasons.  Next year, with an interesting recruiting class this year (including eligibility risk Calvin Godfrey) and next joining up with Big Ten problem children Royce White and Chris Allen there will be a lot of eyes looking to see how his "take a chance on anybody with talent, despite the baggage" strategy works out.  This year, however, there's no pressure and no worries because there isn't much talent (although I am a fan of Diante Garrett) and only four players are back from last year.  I am betting things turn around in a hurry with Hoiberg and his risk/reward strategy, however.  Or blow up in his face like Royce White at the Mall of America.

12.  Oklahoma Sooners.  Losing your three best players (Willie Warren, Tiny Gallon, Tommy Mason-Griffin) who made up basically your entire offense is going to hurt, but perhaps not as much as any possible ramifications coming down from the NCAA due to the Tiny Gallon situation.  Capel is an excellent young coach, but with nearly the entire starting lineup gone and nobody signed for after this season things aren't exactly looking up in Norman.  There is some talent in the large recruiting class coming in this year, with an elite-level player in Cameron Clark, so if they can squeak past the NCAA hit squad things could turn around, but for this year they'll probably be a scrappy, last-place team that scares a lot of conference opponents at times, but loses out on talent at the end.  Like Gopher football, except without the scaring opponents part.  Or the scrappy part.  

If you came here for baseball talk, what with the playoffs and all, don't worry your pretty little head. I'm cooking up a little ALDS primer, coming your way tomorrow. Or possibly Wednesday morning. Here's a preview: We're doomed.

NCAA Basketball Preview: The Big 12

There are two teams here that are clearly head and shoulders above the rest of the conference, but most of the rest of the conference's teams are no slouches following them.  Other than a couple of bottom feeders, almost everybody should be in the mix for an NCAA bid at some point. 

1.  Kansas.  There are some loaded teams this year, but it would be hard to argue that another team out there is as talented or as loaded as the Jayhawks.  They have it inside with Cole Aldrich, who makes my heart hurt every time I see him.  They have it outside with Sherron Collins, who transition from supporting player to lead-dog brilliantly last season.  They have experience, with everybody back from last year's Sweet 16 team.  They have youth coming in, with three very talented sophomores who should be even better this year, as well as one of the top recruiting classes in the country coming in, topped by SG Xavier Henry, Rivals #8 prospect.  They deep at every position, with 8 guys who averaged more than 12 minutes per game last season.  Simply put, there's nothing not to like about Kansas this year, as long as they don't get in any more fist fights with the football team.

2.  Texas.  One of the few teams in the country who can legitimately claim they might have a better recruiting class this year than the Jayhawks, Texas brings in two Top 10 recruits in guards Avery Bradley and Jordan Hamilton, and two others in the top 75 as well.  If that's not enough, PG Jai Lucas, a top 50 recruit when he originally signed with Florida, has transferred in and should fit in well since he won't need to score.  The Longhorns only really significant loss was guard A.J. Abrams, who you will remember as the Gopher destroyer, but I don't think that will hurt much.  In a couple of the games I watched last year, their offense would some times get caught up in trying to force him the ball, and that won't be a concern this year.  Like Kansas, Texas is loaded in every way and everywhere.

3.  Oklahoma.  It's always tough to start over when you lose a guy like the genetically engineered in a lab Blake Griffin, and the Sooners also lose their Cooper Manning in Blake's brother Taylor as well as starting guard Austin Johnson and his freaky-deaky mohawk.  So why pick them third?  Simple:  Willie Warren (who I actually thought was Johnson at one point, mostly because I liked the 'hawk) and a recruiting class right on par with KU and Texas.  Warren is a complete guard who can score inside and out, and managed to average nearly 15 points per game in a role where his job was to compliment Griffin (Blake not Taylor), with him turned loose this season, he could be a superstar.  Tony Crocker and his stupid long-sleeved T-shirt are also back to annoy you.

4.  Oklahoma State.  The Cowboys finally broke through last year, reaching the NCAA Tournament (and beating Tennessee) after three straight NIT trips, and their reward is losing their entire starting back court.  Luckily for them, they will have two of their top players back, both wing types in James Anderson and Obi Muonelo.  Anderson is really impressive, a 40% three-point shooter who is also nearly impossible to stop when he's driving to the basket and plays his best against good teams (his two highest scoring outputs last season were 35 against Texas and 37 against Oklahoma).  His 1/1.4 asist to turnover ratio is troubling, however.  OSU also has a good recruiting class that would have been better if their top recruit wouldn't have been bounced for academics.  Three of the newcomers are point guards and one of them will have to be able to step in for departed PG Byron Eaton - that could be the key to their season.

5.  Kansas State.  A few short years ago, K-State picked up Beasely and Billy Walker and was suddenly relevant to the college basketball landscape.  Huggins then bolted for West Virginia, Beasley and Walker headed to the NBA, and the Wildcats were in danger of sinking back into obscurity.  Luckily for them, it turns out Frank Martin is a pretty good recruiter, too, and he brings in a very nice class.  The star is Rivals #19 recruit Wally Judge, a 6-9 power forward who was named a McDonald's All-American and will make a big impact.  He's joined by two other top 150 guys, as well as UCONN transfer small forward Curtis Kelly, who was a top 30 recruit in 2006.  Add in a good returning back court in Denis Clemente (who dropped 44 on Texas last year) and frustratingly awesome point guard Jacob Pullen, who is equally likely to score 20, dish ten assists, or go 1-13 and turn it over seven times (which he did against Texas), and KSU is going to be an interesting team.

6.  Texas A&M.  Every year I dismiss the Aggies as a fluky school that managed to somehow wrangle an NCAA bid despite being mediocre team.  Then I was doing some research for this, and read that they have now made the tournament four straight years, winning at least one game each year.  It may be time to pay more attention - especially because they have top shelf recruiting classes coming in 2009 and in 2010.  The most exciting newcomer to me is Khris Middleton, although not the highest ranked (two other guys rank above him).  He's gone from a non-ranked player to breaking into the Rivals 150 (#140) after averaging over 24 points a game his senior year.  He's 6-7 and the reports I have read describe him as a "slasher", an "athlete", and a "terrific outside shooter."  Sounds outstanding - I'm giddy and I'm not even a fan.  I'm so excited, I'm actually going to give him his own label.  Look below, it's there.  I might even have to try to find him on facebook.  They also have improving center Bryan Davis back, mostly known for looking like an older Shelden Williams.  You read that right.
  
7.  Baylor.  Man did this team break my heart last year.  They were my secret bargain futures bet at 40-1 to win the whole thing, with a team loaded with good guards, everybody back from an NCAA tournament team last year, and just a good vibe.  They beat both Providence and Arizona State, and hung tough with Wake in an early season tournament and I was feeling it.  Then they won just five conference games and didn't even make the big dance, settling for an NIT bid whereupon they got their collective shit together and made it to the championship game.  Too little, too late, asshats.  Anyway, they lose two of their good guards but still have two more back, and they gain something they haven't had in years - a big time inside defensive presence in Ekpe Udoh, a transfer from Michigan who you may remember as offensively challenged but a very good shotblocker.  They will need someone to become a third scorer, but with two very good recruiting classes the next two years (and another on the way in 2010), they should be just fine.

8.  Iowa State.  The Cyclones have probably the best player in the conference back in power forward Craig Brackins, who averaged 20.2 points (2nd in conf.) and 9.5 rebounds (3rd) per game last season and was a near-lock as a lottery pick for the NBA draft before he surprisingly decided to return to Ames, which is even more shocking since it seems every season since Jake Sullivan graduated has seen a mass exodus of players every offseason.  Not this year, since almost the entire team returns and should be much improved this season.  They are also joined by a couple of top 100 JuCo players, although that list can be a mixed bag at best, but both are described as very athletic and one was a highly regarded prospect coming out of high school and the other was named the Big 12 Preseason Newcomer of the Year.  McDermott seems to have Iowa State back on the right track, especially if the hometown squad can snag Harrison Barnes away from Duke or UNC - which is starting to sound less and less likely.

9.  Missouri.  A very fun team to watch last year, and a pretty fun program ever since the days of Rickey Paulding and Big Artie, I'm not sure what to make of the squad this season.  With Coach Mike Anderson back, you can expect them to continue with the "40 minutes of hell" style game plan, but they will have to do without last year's top three scorers, including star forwards Leo Lyons and DeMarre Carroll who were not only good players, but also fit the system perfectly.  Luckily, they are getting back all their main ballhandlers, including starters J.T. Tiller and Zaire Taylor and add in the Missouri High School Player of the Year in Michael Dixon, so the backcourt is in good shape - key for an uptempo attack.  They will just need somebody to stand out in the frontcourt, and while there are plenty of candidates, there's no obvious option.

10.  Texas Tech.  Pat Knight has done a hell of a job breaking down what daddy built in Lubbock, getting to the point where he described going into games as "going to a gun fight with a squirt gun."  Ouch.  And since he hasn't done much in terms of recruiting talent, he's turning to the JuCo ranks this year, which should be interesting at the very least.  The Red Raiders are bringing in and expecting significant contributions from three Jucos who ranked in the top 33 on Juco Junction's Top 150, highlighted by #7 Brad Reese who had originally signed with LSU.  Will it work?  Who the hell knows, junior college players are always a crapshoot, but it's an interesting strategy, especially for a team with three double-digit scorers returning.  That group includes forward Mike Singletary, who notched two double-doubles as well as a 43 point outburst in the team's last four games last year.

11.  Nebraska.  I know virtually nothing about Nebraska basketball outside of that little weiner guard a few years back who spelled his name Cochrane or something but pronounced all frenchy, but that's ok, because in my experience people in Nebraska don't know much about Husker basketball either.  When I had to go to Lincoln a couple of years ago for work, I started talking with the guy I was meeting with there about sports and mentioned that without a pro sports franchise in the state and only one major university, U of Nebraska sports must be pretty huge.  He affirmed this, and then started talking about Nebraska football.  Then Nebraska baseball.  Then women's volleyball.  Then swimming, track & field, and softball.  Didn't even mention basketball until I asked him, and then he talked about Creighton.  So, yeah, 11th place sounds about right.

12.  Colorado.  I'm really struggling to write something positive here, but I can't seem to come up with anything.  I can't remember the last time the Buffaloes were relevant, and the that includes the recent few years when they had Richard Roby, one of the better Big 12 players in his years at Boulder.  There's a sliver of hope here, with a good returning backcourt in All-Big 12 Third Teamer Cory Higgins and returning double-digit scorer Dwight Thorne, and with almost Wolves' head coach Jeff Bzdelik on board you have to think he'll get the program turned in the right direction, as he did at Air Force.  But really, the most exciting news is incoming freshman Shannon Sharpe, who obviously has a famous name, but even better is described in Athlon Magazine as "a Youtube sensation."  I haven't bothered to look him up or anything, but man, that sounds cool.


Holy crap is this conference deep this year.  There are about nine teams here with a reasonable hope for an NCAA Bid.  I don't remember who they play in their cross conference challenge thing (gun to my head I think it's the Pac 10), but I bet they end up winning it.

Other Previews
Conference USA
Atlantic 10 
Mountain West 
Atlantic Coast