Well the Gophers are back in the NCAA Tournament and I gotta say despite everything else it feels damn good. I'm also pretty pleased with the 11 seed, because it keeps the Gophers away from the #1s and #2s as long as possible, although a possible second round match-up with Florida would probably be every bit the bloodbath you'd see against a #1 or #2. I'll be back with a preview of UCLA on Wednesday night (and then will go radio silent (except twitter) until the next week as we take our annual trip to Chicago to watch all the games from the Dayton Bar with Bogart.) I've also been informed that the Dayton Bar is also an Ole Miss bar so I'm looking forward to watching them hopefully beat the Badgers.
Anyway, here are the toughest things I'm struggling with as a fill out my bracket:
1) Florida or Georgetown? There were three teams I wanted to put in the final four for sure: Louisville, Florida, or Georgetown. Unfortunately, now I can't do that and need to make a choice between the Gators and Hoyas since they'd play in the Sweet 16 if everything holds. I love Florida because they have so many weapons and can score inside or out, and they compliment that with great defense. Georgetown is also an amazing defensive team, and they have Big East Player of the Year Otto Porter who is good enough to carry that offense on his back a la John Wallace or Kemba Walker. I hate that I have to choose, but I'm going with the Gators.
2) What do do with Wisconsin. I hate this. I was all set to have both Wisconsin (because I hate them) and Kansas State (because they, and Bruce Weber, suck) to lose in the first round, but it all broke wrong. Wisconsin gets an Ole Miss team who I don't think can compete with them, and Kansas State gets the play-in winner of LaSalle and Boise State, neither of whom is very good at all. I almost have to take K-State and Wisconsin to both win their first round match-up, and if that happens there's no way K-State can beat the Badgers because Ryan can coach circles around Weber and the Wildcats are perfectly undisciplined enough to fall right into Wisconsin's traps. So I have Wisconsin in the Sweet 16. Feels really wrong and icky and dirty, but since they're always the luckiest team in America you can't rule it out. I'm still rooting against them though. If you don't it means you hate America.
3) Who comes out of the West? In every other region it's come down to one or two difficult decisions between teams I think are good enough to make the Final Four, while in the West I'm decided who is least flawed among the contenders. Gonzaga and New Mexico are good teams no doubt, but neither has been tested as often or as consistently. Both have some good non-conference wins of course but Gonzaga ran through a pretty crappy conference and although New Mexico played in a good MWC I just don't know if I'm buying it. That leaves Ohio State, about whom there are no questions regarding having been tested, but unless their offense continues to be about more than DeShaun Thomas they're going to struggle. If anything wacky happens I'm betting it's in this region, because there are some really weak teams for their seed (Arizona, K-State, Wisco, etc.). Right now I'm going to buy the Buckeyes. The team's offense is coming together with Thomas finding plenty of help, the defense is top-notch as usual, and the coaching is solid.
4) Can Louisville Survive? I think the Cardinals are the best team in the NCAA and my pick to win it all, but holy hell is the Midwest Region a bitch. I consider Oklahoma State, St. Louis, and Michigan State as dark horse Final Four candidates and sure enough, they're all here. The only real saving grace is that Duke is the #2 here and Duke sucks so at least they catch a break there. Even some of the really high seeds (#12 Oregon, #14 Valparaiso) are pretty dangerous. Whoever gets out of this region is going to have to have done some seriously good work. Luckily Louisville hits my check list - come in on a high note (not necessarily a conference tournament victory but just playing well), good guards who can make free throws, great defense, and a team who can shoot without being dependent on the 3. So yeah, despite the tough region Louisville is my champ.
5) Who upsets Kansas? I know Kansas has kind of shed that choker label, what with the two Final Fours since 2008 and all, but there's no way this version of Kansas is Final Four bound so the question becomes where do they get bounced? I'm betting they don't get out of the first weekend with North Carolina knocking them out as one of the toughest 8 seeds I can remember. I know Carolina has been talked about as being "down" this year and maybe they are with 10 losses, but do you realize their worst loss this year was to Texas? And after that their worst loss was to Butler? The rest are 3 losses to Miami, 2 to Duke, and one each to Indiana, Virginia, and NC State which means the Heels don't have a single loss to a team outside of kenpom's top 100 teams. They're probably a little too perimeter dependent to make a significant run, but they should dispatch Villanova with ease and then in a one-time game against Kansas? It could happen, kids, it could happen.
6) How good is Miami? That's an important question, because I don't believe in Indiana and I don't believe in Marquette, which means it's either Miami or Syracuse coming out of the East for me. I do expect Syracuse to beat the Hoosiers and face the Canes with a Final Four berth on the line, so it becomes a matter if I think Miami is good enough to handle the Cuse. As it turns out, I think they are. They're experienced enough to not get rattled and they have the guard play needed to break down the Orange's zone with four guys who are lights out from three, and they play excellent defense, rebound well, and come in off an ACC Tournament Championship. Their free throw shooting is a bit suspect, but otherwise Miami is another team who looks really, really good and I have them in my Final Four.
That's it for now, back later with a Gophers/UCLA preview.
Showing posts with label St. Louis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label St. Louis. Show all posts
Monday, March 18, 2013
Wednesday, March 13, 2013
And we're Spent
I was going to write about everything that happened today, but I write the previews and stuff first and then go back and write the introduction and I'm really quite tired and I don't think that's something that I'm going to do.
ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCEI still have fond memories of watching the ACC Tournament every March (on TV of course). Those were the days of Randolph Childress and Dennis Scott and Curtis Staples when every ACC team, top-to-bottom, was awesome and the conference was head and shoulders above everyone else. They're still a quality conference (kenpom ranks them 4th) but that's because they're strong at the top. The bottom of the ACC is horrible, which makes the tournament much less fun since you can probably pencil in the top seeds to the semi-finals. Except Duke. Eff them.
FAVORITE: Duke. Of course it's Duke. With Ryan Kelly back Duke is one of the top five teams in the country no matter how much you hate them (and you should). It's easy to forget, but this team is 18-0 this year when Kelly is healthy (and 9-4 without him) with wins over Ohio State, Louisville, and Miami - all Final Four contenders. Kelly kind of sucks at everything other than shooting but there's no doubt Duke is a much better team with him than without him. Also did you know every single Duke basketball fan also roots for the Lakers, Cowboys, Yankees, and Notre Dame football? It's science.
SLEEPER: Virginia. The Cavaliers probably need to do something here to secure at at-large bid, because despite their huge wins (Duke, NC State, Wisconsin) they've balanced them with some horrendous losses (George Mason, Delaware, and 5-25 Old Dominion) and an 11-7 conference record. They're a bit of a Wisconsin clone with their style of play (BORING) but it can work, obviously, and they've beaten every other ACC Contender so far this year other than Miami, so they can certainly win this.
W's PICK: Duke. This is what Duke does. They have a great regular season, win the ACC Tournament, and then lose in one of the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament. And I love it every year.
ATLANTIC 10 CONFERENCE
Honestly I couldn't even tell you who is in the A-10 anymore. And even if I could, it wouldn't matter because teams are leaving next year anyway. And did you know there are actually 16 teams in the Atlantic-10? So the Big 10 has 12 and is about to have 14, the Big 12 has 10 teams, and the Atlantic 10 has 16. Gotta say, I think the whole idea of naming your conference after the number of teams is looking like a pretty crappy idea. Hell at this point we can't even name them on their geographical region any more. We're going to have to start naming conferences after things pretty soon, like the Lamp Conference.
FAVORITE: St. Louis. The Billikens are streaking. They won 12 of their last 13 (with the loss being in overtime @ Xavier) with those wins including a win over VCU and a sweep of Butler, but even so they're sneaking up on everybody. You watch, they're going to be anywhere from a 3-6 seed when the pairings come out and I'm betting nearly everybody will have them getting knock-off the first weekend. They're a great defensive basketball team who spreads their scoring around with five guys averaging between 9.8 and 12.9 points per game- don't underrate them.
SLEEPER: Xavier. A rare down year for the Musketeers sees them tied for sixth in the A-10 with seven conference losses, but in a pretty wide open conference there are plenty of teams who could get hot and win the auto-bid. Not only did Xavier just beat St. Louis in the second-to-last game of the season, they also beat Memphis a couple of weeks ago.
W's PICK: VCU. I can't help it, I love VCU. They play the game like a bunch of crazy lunatics and, in the tradition of the old UNLV and Arkansas teams, it works. They're a bit under the radar nationally this year since they have seven losses, but those seven are Duke and Missouri in the Bahamas, @ Richmond, LaSalle, @ St. Louis, and @ Temple. That's a pretty good list. It serves to give them a worse seeding, which will make them a genius pick to make the Final Four, although with all their recent success I'm sure plenty of others will feel the same so maybe the real genius pick will be to take them to lose in round one.
BIG WEST CONFERENCE
Big West teams always seem to grab a nice upset or two each year. This year Cal Poly beat UCLA, Pacific beat Xavier and St. Mary's, and UC-Irvine beat USC. The Big West lacks the big-time sleeper NCAA Tournament threat like they had the last couple of years with Santa Barbara and Long Beach, but there are a number of teams here who could get a victory if they get the right match-up.
FAVORITE: Long Beach. Say what you want about Dan Monson, and I have, but he knows how to build a program to dominate a terrible conference. The 49ers are once again the #1 seed in the Big West, and even though they aren't as dangerous a team as they were last season they'll probably win this tournament. Although things may be unraveling at the end of the season here a bit with LBSU losing three of their last four games.
SLEEPER: UC-Irvine. The Anteaters were horrendous at the beginning of the year, starting out at 5-7 with ugly losses to Pepperdine and Sam Houston, but buttoned it up to close out the season, finishing out with a 10-5 swing which included wins over Long Beach, Pacific, and Cal-Poly - the top three Big West teams. Plus they're the Anteaters - that's pretty sweet.
W's PICK: Irvine. There's nobody here who looks like they could run away with this thing, and with the Anteaters coming into the tournament as the hottest team I may as well pick them. Plus they're Anteaters.
BIG SKY CONFERENCE
The Big Sky has always been one of my favorite conferences, mainly because my wife and her entire family attended school there (for at least a semester) and I've been on their campus a bunch of times and have some hats and shirts and such and since they're the dominant program they're always relevant, at least for a low-major. And this is a low major, at least this year. Weber (24-5) and Montana (23-6) took care of business, but there isn't a single other school in the conference that finished better than .500.
FAVORITE: Weber State. Technically Montana is actually the #1 seed but they lost their leading scorer to a foot injury and although they've gone 4-1 without him (the loss was in overtime to Davidson) Weber State is probably the better team now. The Wildcats have won eleven straight, including a 14-point victory over Montana and really they haven't missed Damian Lillard much at all this season thanks to three double-digit per game scorers and the nation's #1 three-point shooting team at 42%.
SLEEPER: Montana State. Weber and Montana are much better than the rest of the field here, but if anybody is going to crash the party it will probably be Montana State. While the majority of the conference was just getting beat up by the two top teams, the Bobcats were able to hang tough, actually beating Weber State at home and losing by just 8 on the road, and although they were swept by Montana the Grizzlies only beat them by 3 and 5 (in overtime).
W's PICK: Weber State. It feels like the Wildcats have dominated this conference, but they actually haven't been to the NCAAs since 2007 since they can't get over the hump and actually win the conference tournament. This year should be different, and hopefully Harold Arceneaux's ghost will come back and bring them to a first round upset. Also, for your education, it's pronounced WEE-BER. Don't you feel like a dummy?
BIG 12 CONFERENCE[NOTE: This apparently started Wednesday night. I had no idea]
The Big 12 is actually shockingly deep this year. With only ten teams they have six ranked in the Top 50 according to kenpom, which is awfully damn good for a conference I thought was pretty crappy. Of course, the teams in the top 50 include Baylor, who sucks, and Oklahoma, who sucks, so maybe the ratings aren't exactly accurate. Besides, games are played by real players on the court, not in your mom's basement using a computer, nerd.
FAVORITE: Kansas. The Jayhawks won the Big 12 for the ninth straight year and are the favorite once again, but unlike previous years they aren't a prohibitive favorite as the B12 is pretty wide open this year at the top. Kansas had losses to Oklahoma, Baylor, and Oklahoma State this year, should have had two losses to Iowa State, and lost to the worst team in the conference TCU. They have one of the best guards in the country in Ben McLemore, one of the best centers in the country in Jeff Withey, and very little else. KU is very vulnerable, and that goes for the NCAA Tournament as well.
SLEEPER: Iowa State. The Cyclones finished with the 5 seed and will probably be in the NCAAs as a 10 or 11, but it really should have been so much better. They lost to Kansas once on a banked in KU three-pointer and once thanks to the worst call of the season (which even B12 officials said it was a blown call), and both at Texas and Oklahoma State on last second plays. The shoot a ton of threes, make a ton of threes, and play at a fast pace - a really fun team to watch.
W's PICK: Oklahoma State. The Cowboys have gone ahead and transformed themselves into a dark horse Final Four contender. They've won 11 of their last 13, the two losses were @ Iowa State (can't fight Hilton Magic) and a double-OT loss to Kansas, and included in those eleven wins were victories over Oklahoma, Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, and Iowa State. All you really need to know is that OK State's third best player is LeBryan Nash and he'd probably be the best player on 90% of NCAA teams (when he's engaged and paying attention, sort of has a disappearing thing going on).
BIG TEN CONFERENCE
Well here's the biggie, and I mean that not only because the stupid Gophers are in it, but because in reality I think it's hard to argue against this as the best conference in basketball. I mentioned the Big 12 having a bunch of well rated teams at kenpom, but the Big Ten has nine of their twelve ranked in the top 62 and nobody worse than #146. Add in that outside of Northwestern anybody can beat anybody else on any given day and this could really be wild. The Gophers and Michigan are fading, while Iowa and Purdue are rising which bunches the teams together even further. There are 8 teams who wouldn't shock me if they won this.
FAVORITE: Indiana. It's interesting to me that Indiana started as the big favorite in the conference, we spent the entire conference season wondering who was really number one and trying to figure out how good Indiana actually was, and now that we're done the Hoosiers come out as looking like pretty clearly the best team in the Big 10, don't they? I don't know, for my money they're clearly the top team in the conference.
SLEEPER: Illinois. If I wasn't a Minnesota fan I'd say the Gophers since they still have a really impressive list of good wins and have played well on neutral courts, but since I am a Gopher fan I know how freaking awful they've been so I refuse to support them in any way. I also think Illinois really sucks, but Iowa sucks worse, and everybody else is either too good to be a sleeper or too crappy to have a prayer. Illinois shoots so many stupid three-pointers they could conceivably get hot enough to win a couple of games, even if they don't have a chance of winning this thing. The Gophers, on the other hand, actually do have a chance to win the B10 Tournament, but I refuse to care enough to care. That's not a typo.
W's PICK: Michigan. Maybe this goes back to the old Steve Fisher days, but Michigan always strikes me as a damn good tournament type team. The Fab Five never flamed out early and made two Final Fours when they were all together, they won the first ever Big Ten Tournament, and other than last year I can't remember them ever losing early in the NCAAs. By the way, now that I look it up to try to avoid looking like an idiot, it turns out the reason I don't remember them flaming out early is because Michigan didn't make a single NCAA Tournament between 1998 and 2009. For serious. That is ridiculous.
Sorry if you were looking for more Gopher specific stuff, but I don't know what to write anymore. They're good enough to beat anybody in the Big Ten and bad enough to lose to anybody in the Big Ten. Illinois chucks a shitload of threes, and if they're making them the Gophers are screwed. If not, the Gophers have to execute their half court offense to win. Does any of that sound manageable? I just don't even know anymore. Here are my last thoughts on the Gophers. This is all I got, bro. At least until I see how they play against Illinois.
ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCEI still have fond memories of watching the ACC Tournament every March (on TV of course). Those were the days of Randolph Childress and Dennis Scott and Curtis Staples when every ACC team, top-to-bottom, was awesome and the conference was head and shoulders above everyone else. They're still a quality conference (kenpom ranks them 4th) but that's because they're strong at the top. The bottom of the ACC is horrible, which makes the tournament much less fun since you can probably pencil in the top seeds to the semi-finals. Except Duke. Eff them.
FAVORITE: Duke. Of course it's Duke. With Ryan Kelly back Duke is one of the top five teams in the country no matter how much you hate them (and you should). It's easy to forget, but this team is 18-0 this year when Kelly is healthy (and 9-4 without him) with wins over Ohio State, Louisville, and Miami - all Final Four contenders. Kelly kind of sucks at everything other than shooting but there's no doubt Duke is a much better team with him than without him. Also did you know every single Duke basketball fan also roots for the Lakers, Cowboys, Yankees, and Notre Dame football? It's science.
SLEEPER: Virginia. The Cavaliers probably need to do something here to secure at at-large bid, because despite their huge wins (Duke, NC State, Wisconsin) they've balanced them with some horrendous losses (George Mason, Delaware, and 5-25 Old Dominion) and an 11-7 conference record. They're a bit of a Wisconsin clone with their style of play (BORING) but it can work, obviously, and they've beaten every other ACC Contender so far this year other than Miami, so they can certainly win this.
W's PICK: Duke. This is what Duke does. They have a great regular season, win the ACC Tournament, and then lose in one of the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament. And I love it every year.
ATLANTIC 10 CONFERENCE
Honestly I couldn't even tell you who is in the A-10 anymore. And even if I could, it wouldn't matter because teams are leaving next year anyway. And did you know there are actually 16 teams in the Atlantic-10? So the Big 10 has 12 and is about to have 14, the Big 12 has 10 teams, and the Atlantic 10 has 16. Gotta say, I think the whole idea of naming your conference after the number of teams is looking like a pretty crappy idea. Hell at this point we can't even name them on their geographical region any more. We're going to have to start naming conferences after things pretty soon, like the Lamp Conference.
FAVORITE: St. Louis. The Billikens are streaking. They won 12 of their last 13 (with the loss being in overtime @ Xavier) with those wins including a win over VCU and a sweep of Butler, but even so they're sneaking up on everybody. You watch, they're going to be anywhere from a 3-6 seed when the pairings come out and I'm betting nearly everybody will have them getting knock-off the first weekend. They're a great defensive basketball team who spreads their scoring around with five guys averaging between 9.8 and 12.9 points per game- don't underrate them.
SLEEPER: Xavier. A rare down year for the Musketeers sees them tied for sixth in the A-10 with seven conference losses, but in a pretty wide open conference there are plenty of teams who could get hot and win the auto-bid. Not only did Xavier just beat St. Louis in the second-to-last game of the season, they also beat Memphis a couple of weeks ago.
W's PICK: VCU. I can't help it, I love VCU. They play the game like a bunch of crazy lunatics and, in the tradition of the old UNLV and Arkansas teams, it works. They're a bit under the radar nationally this year since they have seven losses, but those seven are Duke and Missouri in the Bahamas, @ Richmond, LaSalle, @ St. Louis, and @ Temple. That's a pretty good list. It serves to give them a worse seeding, which will make them a genius pick to make the Final Four, although with all their recent success I'm sure plenty of others will feel the same so maybe the real genius pick will be to take them to lose in round one.
BIG WEST CONFERENCE
Big West teams always seem to grab a nice upset or two each year. This year Cal Poly beat UCLA, Pacific beat Xavier and St. Mary's, and UC-Irvine beat USC. The Big West lacks the big-time sleeper NCAA Tournament threat like they had the last couple of years with Santa Barbara and Long Beach, but there are a number of teams here who could get a victory if they get the right match-up.
FAVORITE: Long Beach. Say what you want about Dan Monson, and I have, but he knows how to build a program to dominate a terrible conference. The 49ers are once again the #1 seed in the Big West, and even though they aren't as dangerous a team as they were last season they'll probably win this tournament. Although things may be unraveling at the end of the season here a bit with LBSU losing three of their last four games.
SLEEPER: UC-Irvine. The Anteaters were horrendous at the beginning of the year, starting out at 5-7 with ugly losses to Pepperdine and Sam Houston, but buttoned it up to close out the season, finishing out with a 10-5 swing which included wins over Long Beach, Pacific, and Cal-Poly - the top three Big West teams. Plus they're the Anteaters - that's pretty sweet.
W's PICK: Irvine. There's nobody here who looks like they could run away with this thing, and with the Anteaters coming into the tournament as the hottest team I may as well pick them. Plus they're Anteaters.
BIG SKY CONFERENCE
The Big Sky has always been one of my favorite conferences, mainly because my wife and her entire family attended school there (for at least a semester) and I've been on their campus a bunch of times and have some hats and shirts and such and since they're the dominant program they're always relevant, at least for a low-major. And this is a low major, at least this year. Weber (24-5) and Montana (23-6) took care of business, but there isn't a single other school in the conference that finished better than .500.
FAVORITE: Weber State. Technically Montana is actually the #1 seed but they lost their leading scorer to a foot injury and although they've gone 4-1 without him (the loss was in overtime to Davidson) Weber State is probably the better team now. The Wildcats have won eleven straight, including a 14-point victory over Montana and really they haven't missed Damian Lillard much at all this season thanks to three double-digit per game scorers and the nation's #1 three-point shooting team at 42%.
SLEEPER: Montana State. Weber and Montana are much better than the rest of the field here, but if anybody is going to crash the party it will probably be Montana State. While the majority of the conference was just getting beat up by the two top teams, the Bobcats were able to hang tough, actually beating Weber State at home and losing by just 8 on the road, and although they were swept by Montana the Grizzlies only beat them by 3 and 5 (in overtime).
W's PICK: Weber State. It feels like the Wildcats have dominated this conference, but they actually haven't been to the NCAAs since 2007 since they can't get over the hump and actually win the conference tournament. This year should be different, and hopefully Harold Arceneaux's ghost will come back and bring them to a first round upset. Also, for your education, it's pronounced WEE-BER. Don't you feel like a dummy?
BIG 12 CONFERENCE[NOTE: This apparently started Wednesday night. I had no idea]
The Big 12 is actually shockingly deep this year. With only ten teams they have six ranked in the Top 50 according to kenpom, which is awfully damn good for a conference I thought was pretty crappy. Of course, the teams in the top 50 include Baylor, who sucks, and Oklahoma, who sucks, so maybe the ratings aren't exactly accurate. Besides, games are played by real players on the court, not in your mom's basement using a computer, nerd.
FAVORITE: Kansas. The Jayhawks won the Big 12 for the ninth straight year and are the favorite once again, but unlike previous years they aren't a prohibitive favorite as the B12 is pretty wide open this year at the top. Kansas had losses to Oklahoma, Baylor, and Oklahoma State this year, should have had two losses to Iowa State, and lost to the worst team in the conference TCU. They have one of the best guards in the country in Ben McLemore, one of the best centers in the country in Jeff Withey, and very little else. KU is very vulnerable, and that goes for the NCAA Tournament as well.
SLEEPER: Iowa State. The Cyclones finished with the 5 seed and will probably be in the NCAAs as a 10 or 11, but it really should have been so much better. They lost to Kansas once on a banked in KU three-pointer and once thanks to the worst call of the season (which even B12 officials said it was a blown call), and both at Texas and Oklahoma State on last second plays. The shoot a ton of threes, make a ton of threes, and play at a fast pace - a really fun team to watch.
W's PICK: Oklahoma State. The Cowboys have gone ahead and transformed themselves into a dark horse Final Four contender. They've won 11 of their last 13, the two losses were @ Iowa State (can't fight Hilton Magic) and a double-OT loss to Kansas, and included in those eleven wins were victories over Oklahoma, Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, and Iowa State. All you really need to know is that OK State's third best player is LeBryan Nash and he'd probably be the best player on 90% of NCAA teams (when he's engaged and paying attention, sort of has a disappearing thing going on).
BIG TEN CONFERENCE
Well here's the biggie, and I mean that not only because the stupid Gophers are in it, but because in reality I think it's hard to argue against this as the best conference in basketball. I mentioned the Big 12 having a bunch of well rated teams at kenpom, but the Big Ten has nine of their twelve ranked in the top 62 and nobody worse than #146. Add in that outside of Northwestern anybody can beat anybody else on any given day and this could really be wild. The Gophers and Michigan are fading, while Iowa and Purdue are rising which bunches the teams together even further. There are 8 teams who wouldn't shock me if they won this.
FAVORITE: Indiana. It's interesting to me that Indiana started as the big favorite in the conference, we spent the entire conference season wondering who was really number one and trying to figure out how good Indiana actually was, and now that we're done the Hoosiers come out as looking like pretty clearly the best team in the Big 10, don't they? I don't know, for my money they're clearly the top team in the conference.
SLEEPER: Illinois. If I wasn't a Minnesota fan I'd say the Gophers since they still have a really impressive list of good wins and have played well on neutral courts, but since I am a Gopher fan I know how freaking awful they've been so I refuse to support them in any way. I also think Illinois really sucks, but Iowa sucks worse, and everybody else is either too good to be a sleeper or too crappy to have a prayer. Illinois shoots so many stupid three-pointers they could conceivably get hot enough to win a couple of games, even if they don't have a chance of winning this thing. The Gophers, on the other hand, actually do have a chance to win the B10 Tournament, but I refuse to care enough to care. That's not a typo.
W's PICK: Michigan. Maybe this goes back to the old Steve Fisher days, but Michigan always strikes me as a damn good tournament type team. The Fab Five never flamed out early and made two Final Fours when they were all together, they won the first ever Big Ten Tournament, and other than last year I can't remember them ever losing early in the NCAAs. By the way, now that I look it up to try to avoid looking like an idiot, it turns out the reason I don't remember them flaming out early is because Michigan didn't make a single NCAA Tournament between 1998 and 2009. For serious. That is ridiculous.
Sorry if you were looking for more Gopher specific stuff, but I don't know what to write anymore. They're good enough to beat anybody in the Big Ten and bad enough to lose to anybody in the Big Ten. Illinois chucks a shitload of threes, and if they're making them the Gophers are screwed. If not, the Gophers have to execute their half court offense to win. Does any of that sound manageable? I just don't even know anymore. Here are my last thoughts on the Gophers. This is all I got, bro. At least until I see how they play against Illinois.
Wednesday, October 24, 2012
DWG College Hoops Preview: Teams #33-26
Pablo Sandoval hits three home runs. Barry Zito not only is unhittable, but also knocks in a run against probably the best pitcher of this generation. Angel Pagan gets a double by hitting a routine bouncer that hits the third base bag. Tim Lincecum strikes everyone out in a season where he's basically been a pitching machine. Gregor Blanco can suddenly get to everything. Call me crazy, but are you getting a vibe that the Giants stole that Cardinal October magic? Good thing I got in on the Giants to win at +160 already. I know I said I was going to be rooting for the Tigers and thought they were the better team, but so much money poured in on Detroit that the +160 for the Giants was too juicy to pass up. Obviously. Any way, I wrote some more previews while watching the game.
33. Kansas State Wildcats. You know, K-State has a pretty good thing going lately and have morphed into one of the most consistently athletic teams in the country year-after-year, and that's not going to change this season. The Wildcats have most of last year's team back, including eight of their top nine scorers from last season, which means they'll most likely still be a god awful jump-shooting team (unless someone or someones went Eric Harris on it this offseason) but that's ok because they should make up for it, again, by being phenomenal at attacking the basket and grabbing a high percentage of all those bricks they throw up there. Of course, they just hired Bruce Weber and since we all know a coaching match-up between Weber and paper bag would be a toss-up we can probably expect this nice little run by K-State to fall by the wayside as they descend into mediocrity once again and Weber moves on to destroy yet another program.
32. St. Mary's Gaels. I know what you're worrying about, and yes don't worry floppy haired uber Beiber dork Matthew Dellavedova is back for one more year. And someone tell me if I'm totally crazy, but I'm getting a distinct Steve Nash vibe from this kid. Think about it. Floppy hair. From a foreign country that speaks a weird brand of English. Under the radar recruit who lands at a WCC school. Immediate impact as a freshman, then end up getting progressively better, developing into one of the best PGs in the land, and single-handedly leading their team to upsets against bigger (and better) teams. I really think we're in for a monster year from both Dellavedova and St. Mary's, if only to validate my Nash theory. But if St. Mary's ends up making the Sweet 16 this year I'd start finding ways to bet YES on things like "Someday Matthew Dellavedova will win two NBA MVP awards."
31. St. Louis Billikens. St. Louis has been on a slow build
since they hired Rick Majerus, so it'll be interesting to see if is
absence (taking a year off for some kind of medical leave) hurts them,
because this team has a chance to be very good this year. It's actually
kind of a an interesting case because they only lose one dude from last
year's team, but it's the dude that was kind of their leader who did
everything (1st in points, 2nd in rebs, 5th in assists, 4th in steals, 1st in FG%, 1st in FT%).
Talent-wise they're pretty loaded, but losing the head coach, the team
leader, and now their best returning player, Kwamain Mitchell, is out
for six weeks with a broken foot. I don't know, that seems like a lot
to deal with for a team who is supposed to be in good shape for this
season. Kind of makes me think of the Cincinnati Bengals for some
reason.
30. BYU Cougars. It's always interesting how the Mormon faith impacts college hoops. There's the scheduling, because BYU can't/won't play on Sundays which impacts the NCAA Tournament. Brandon Davies got suspended for the season two years ago because he had sex and then admitted it to his coach. And there's always the random Mormon mission that takes a player off the team mid-way through his career. This time, however, BYU is actually getting a big boost, because Tyler Haws back. Two seasons ago Haws averaged 11 points and 4 rebounds per game as a freshman and still has a 48-straight made free throw streak. Getting a guy back who has already proven he can play is golden, and add Haws to a mix that includes the 6-11 Davies (15 & 8 last year) and point guard Matt Carlino (12 & 5) and BYU won't even miss the loss of a couple of seniors and should have no problem grabbing an NCAA bid. Assuming everybody keeps their pants on, or at least has the common sense to not go running to their bishop about it.
29. Drexel Dragons. You know what's a really sweet team name? Dragons. Awesome. Anyway, the Dragons, who are routinely one of the best defensive squads in the country, are set up for success this year. The only lose one major contributor off last season's team that set a school record for victories, and with VCU now in the A-10 and Old Dominion ineligible for the conference title since they're bolting to C-USA after this season it's wide open for Drexel to take the league crown. As I mentioned Drexel is always nails defensively, but last year's edition could actually score some points as well and a Dragon team that can score is pretty scary for somebody in round 1 of the tournament. Like, scary like that Tiamat five-headed dragon from the Dungeons & Dragons cartoon. Yes I watched it as a kid and it was awesome. I also own a DVD with 10 episodes on it, what of it? No you're the nerd.
28. Wisconsin Badgers. Ok, I've learned my lesson. I don't know if it's my hatred of the Badgers because they're evil (I mean they even wear red, pay attention) or just because they're so boring, but every year I think the Badgers will be horrible and every year I'm wrong. Look at this season - Jordan Taylor is gone and there isn't a player on the roster who looks like they can replace his production, even by committee. Jared Berggren and Ryan Evans are the two best players coming back, and Evans should be a six man and Berggren is terrible. Their top guards are going to be Ben Brust and Josh Gasser and neither of them scares anybody. But of course, none of that matters. They're going to play so slow it puts everyone to sleep, bore everyone to death, never turn the ball over, grab all the available rebounds, and win way more games than I'd ever expect. Just like every year. It's like an evil version of college basketball Groundhog Day.
27. Marquette Golden Eagles. At first when I was ranking teams off the top of my head I think I had Marquette in the 40s or 50s simply because losing both Jae Crowder and Darius Johnson-Odom to the NBA is a crusher, but when I did more reading I realized there is plenty still here to work with (plus counting out Buzz Williams is like counting on Bruce Weber). Their back court is loaded with Junior Cadougan and Vander Blue, who is one of my favorite players because he has a sweet name, a sweet game, and he pissed on Wisconsin, and their returning leading scorer is a big man so they'll have a nice balance. The back court should be their strength, but that doesn't mean their shooting - the three returning guards shot combined 48-162 from 3 last year and that will probably hold them back from being a truly dangerous team. Still better than Wisconsin though.
26. Ohio Bobcats. You only need to know one thing - yes, D.J. Cooper is back.
You remember Cooper, right? He's the guy who pretty much beat
Georgetown two years ago and Michigan last year in the NCAA Tournament.
And he was pretty good against South Florida too, helping Ohio to the
Sweet 16. Yes, he's back and now a senior. As is last year's second
leading scorer Walter Offutt. And #3 Reggie Keely. #4 Nick Kellog is
back too, but he's only a junior. #5 Ivo Baltic is a senior though.
You see where I'm going with this? The Bobcats have their top nine
players back and all but one is a senior or junior. The have top end
talent in Cooper and Offutt. And they must have a pretty good chemistry
together because even though their coach left to take the Illinois job
nobody transferred out. This could be a very special year, which feels
weird to say about a MAC team. Plus DJ Cooper makes me think of D.B. Cooper and that's awesome. Of course since they are a MAC team,
it's pretty likely if they don't win their conference tournament they
don't go dancing at all. Which would suck like Nick Blackburn. Or Justin Verlander, I suppose.
Previous:
Teams #68-60
Teams #59-53
Teams #52-47
Teams #46-39
Teams #38-34
Previous:
Teams #68-60
Teams #59-53
Teams #52-47
Teams #46-39
Teams #38-34
Sunday, February 12, 2012
Week in Review - 2/13/2011
There are no word about the Gophers, or at least nothing more than a throwaway line here and there, in the below post. Mainly because they didn't play this weekend. I ripped off about 1,200 words after the loss to the dirty dirtball Sconnies, and I don't really feel the need to do it again when nothing has changed. Plus there was only one comment left after that post where I poured out my heart and thoughts and so you asshole don't deserve any more. You're lucky I post at all.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Kentucky Wildcats. I'm now starting to think that worrying about Kentucky being a young team and/or having a less than elite in-game coach doesn't really matter because good god thee guys are just not fair. What did Kentucky do this week? Well, they demolished their top contender in the conference by 20 (Florida, more on them later) and then went into Vandy, a pretty tough place to play, and beat the Commodore, probably the third best team in the conference. They've got unstoppable inside scorers (Anthony Davis, Terrence Jones), three-point shooters (Doron Lamb, Darius Miller), slashers (Jones, Michael Gilchrist), shot blockers (Davis, Jones), and lock down perimeter defenders (Miller, Gilchrist). Their "weak link" is point guard Marquis Teague, and he'd be the best player on 90% of college teams. Just sick. I have no idea how they're going to lose in March.
2. Austin Rivers. He's still got too much of a tendency to go one man show, and when he has the ball on the break you know he's taking the shot 80% of the time, but holy crap was Rivers awesome against North Carolina. 29 points with 6 three-pointers and everyone was big, including the game winner right in Tyler Zeller's stupid face. Reading what some fans of both teams have written and this might be the "best" win by Duke in this rivalry, coming at Chapel Hill versus one of UNC's most talented squads, at least in recent memory. And they basically did it because Austin Rivers' decided to breakout. I think going pro after this season will be best for everyone involved because Rivers game is an NBA game and he's struggled trying to adjust playing within the constraints of a tight system rather than, "go get 40 Austin", but man, he is the real deal.
3. Wichita State Shockers. I don't usually like to talk about the Missouri Valley on account of it sucks so bad, but Wichita's win over Creighton this weekend was truly a thing of beauty. See, at the beginning of the year Wichita was supposed to be this year's MVC darling, a team with a shot to knock off some good squads, have a successful conference season, and roll to an easy at-large bid with a chance to make some noise. Then they lost to both Alabama and Temple in Puerto Rico and everybody was like, meh, while Creighton raced out to a 21-2 start and has everyone's darling Doug McDermott and was like Lindsay Lohan stealing everything Rachel McAdams had. But then Wichita went to Creighton and completely destroyed the Blue Jays and no Creighton has lost three straight while Wichita can put this win with their win over UNLV and good computer numbers and are probably more likely to make it at-large than Creighton. So suck on that, Lohan.
4. St. Louis Billikens. I'm guessing reading about St. Louis doesn't exactly rank in the top 5 of anybody's favorite things to do list, but it' rare you see a team take care of business like they have and have jumped from the lower-mid bubble to near the top of it. The Billikens won on the road this week at both St. Joe's and LaSalle, two teams in contention for the Atlantic 10 crown, and now sit at 8-3, just a half game behind Temple, and that followed up a week where they beat St. Bonaventure and Dayton, two other teams towards the top of the A-10. Their non-conference strength of schedule is awful (213 in the country) but they do have win over Washington, Oklahoma, Boston College, and Villanova - not exactly the 1927 Yankees but a better lineup than the Gophers' can show. And they're trending up. Fully expect Majerus to finally be back in the big dance.
5. Cal Bears. Ye, the Pac-10 is still horrible and yes, there's a good chance it's a one bid conference, but that's exactly what makes a team actually going out and doing something worthwhile notable because nobody ever does it in this league. The Bears went on their road trip through Southern California and won at both USC and UCLA (their RPIs are 228 and 121, but remember it's the Pac-10 so we're on a different curve here). This now brings them to 10-3 and 20-6 overall, and at least getting near the middle of the bubble. Oh, and in case you're wondering Justin Cobbs had 28 point and 10 assists in those two wins. (Also noteworthy: Oregon also was 2-0 this week. Devoe had 29 points and 7 assists.) It's so funny I'm going to stab myself in the ankle with the bayonet I have sitting next to the couch.
WHO SUCKED
1. Florida Gators. Bit of a rough one for the Gators and those who at one point listed the Gators as a sleeper Final Four team. First, on Tuesday, the had a big chance to make a statement going into Lexington to play the #1 Kentucky Wildcats and walked out 20-point losers, and then on Saturday they took a home gimme win vs. Tennessee and somehow ended up losing by five. Actually I shouldn't say somehow, because it's pretty obvious than when a team is as dependent on the three-pointer the way Florida is (6th in the country in % of points coming from behind the line) when the shots aren't falling they're screwed. The Gators 17-56 from behind the arc in those two games, significantly worse than their season mark of nearly 40%. And a special shout-out to Erving Walker and Bradley Beal, who, along with Kenny Boynton, are basically the entire team and were 1-11 from 3 against Kentucky and 2-11 against Tennessee. That reliance on the three makes them both a threat to make a run in March and an early upset candidate. Guess I'm going to have to guess right.
2. William Buford. Buford actually had a pretty good game earlier in the week against Purdue (29 points on 10-17 shooting) which hurt the narrative a bit but he's been absolutely awful lately other than that game, and saved one of his worst for their big loss against Sparty, shooting 2-12 with 3 turnover (to 1 assist) for a grand total of 4 points. Looking back, outside of that game against Purdue the last time Buford shot 50% or better in a game was the first game of 2012, and he's shot 29-104 in those games, and has had 29 turnover versus 21 assists. Ohio State is really good and are absolutely a title contender, but if Buford doesn't get it figured out there's no way they're getting past the sweet 16.
3. Baylor Bears. I still like these guys a lot, but after they lost to both Kansas (at home) and Missouri (on the road) this week it might be time to take a harder look. Because they've now been swept by both those teams, and considering there are only three really good teams in the Big 12 (with apologies to Iowa State) that means that Baylor hasn't had a good win in quite some time. There's no doubt they're still a very good team with the resume to prove it (wins over Kansas State, Miss State, West Virginia, St. Mary's, BYU, and San Diego State), but there are alarm bells ringing all over the place after those two sweeps. Worth noting that Perry Jones scored 5 points against Kansas on 1-8 shooting and 4 points on 2-12 shooting against Missouri, which means he's only broken double digit scoring once in four game against these two teams. I'm going to go ahead and not do anymore research and just assume he's a choker in big games. Join me, won't you?
4. The Grammys. I'm thrilled they chose to award the Foo Fighters with basically every award they were up for, but I can't forgive them for slighting Wiz Khalifa for best rap performance and song. You're seriously going to give the Grammy to Jay-Z and "Mail it in" Kanye for Otis over the masterpiece Black & Yellow from Wiz and give the other one to some collaboration with like six singer/rappers? Joke. I suppose I should just be happy it was nominated, but it should have won, but the politics of not giving a grammy to such a power collaboration probably made this inevitable. The grammys used to mean something and be about the music but, much like when they stopped eating the groundhog in Punxatawney, we live in a sissified society. Shame. Check it:
5. Murray State and Harvard. I'm going to lump these two schools together because they both have an outside chance at an at-large berth, both stumbled this weekend (Murray lost to Tennessee State or Tech I'm not sure but I'm not looking it up and Harvard lost to Princeton), and both should probably do everything they can to win their league. Harvard still looks pretty good with only one Ivy loss, and now that I look apparently Murray State is a lock to get an at-large according to ESPN so maybe I'm stupid. I'm sorry, but how exactly are they a lock? Even at 21-1 their RPI is 57 (Gophers are 54, FYI), Strength of schedule is 292, and non-conference strength of schedule is 132. They only have four wins over the RPI top 150, and the two best are over Memphis and Southern Miss whose RPIs are top 25 but everyone know they suck. One more conference loss and I say ship 'em to the NIT. Plus maybe then I'll get to see them live at Williams' Arena, score!
Oh, and in case you're wondering if you missed him, no, I didn't write about Jeremy Lin because oh my god will you people shut up.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Kentucky Wildcats. I'm now starting to think that worrying about Kentucky being a young team and/or having a less than elite in-game coach doesn't really matter because good god thee guys are just not fair. What did Kentucky do this week? Well, they demolished their top contender in the conference by 20 (Florida, more on them later) and then went into Vandy, a pretty tough place to play, and beat the Commodore, probably the third best team in the conference. They've got unstoppable inside scorers (Anthony Davis, Terrence Jones), three-point shooters (Doron Lamb, Darius Miller), slashers (Jones, Michael Gilchrist), shot blockers (Davis, Jones), and lock down perimeter defenders (Miller, Gilchrist). Their "weak link" is point guard Marquis Teague, and he'd be the best player on 90% of college teams. Just sick. I have no idea how they're going to lose in March.
2. Austin Rivers. He's still got too much of a tendency to go one man show, and when he has the ball on the break you know he's taking the shot 80% of the time, but holy crap was Rivers awesome against North Carolina. 29 points with 6 three-pointers and everyone was big, including the game winner right in Tyler Zeller's stupid face. Reading what some fans of both teams have written and this might be the "best" win by Duke in this rivalry, coming at Chapel Hill versus one of UNC's most talented squads, at least in recent memory. And they basically did it because Austin Rivers' decided to breakout. I think going pro after this season will be best for everyone involved because Rivers game is an NBA game and he's struggled trying to adjust playing within the constraints of a tight system rather than, "go get 40 Austin", but man, he is the real deal.
3. Wichita State Shockers. I don't usually like to talk about the Missouri Valley on account of it sucks so bad, but Wichita's win over Creighton this weekend was truly a thing of beauty. See, at the beginning of the year Wichita was supposed to be this year's MVC darling, a team with a shot to knock off some good squads, have a successful conference season, and roll to an easy at-large bid with a chance to make some noise. Then they lost to both Alabama and Temple in Puerto Rico and everybody was like, meh, while Creighton raced out to a 21-2 start and has everyone's darling Doug McDermott and was like Lindsay Lohan stealing everything Rachel McAdams had. But then Wichita went to Creighton and completely destroyed the Blue Jays and no Creighton has lost three straight while Wichita can put this win with their win over UNLV and good computer numbers and are probably more likely to make it at-large than Creighton. So suck on that, Lohan.
4. St. Louis Billikens. I'm guessing reading about St. Louis doesn't exactly rank in the top 5 of anybody's favorite things to do list, but it' rare you see a team take care of business like they have and have jumped from the lower-mid bubble to near the top of it. The Billikens won on the road this week at both St. Joe's and LaSalle, two teams in contention for the Atlantic 10 crown, and now sit at 8-3, just a half game behind Temple, and that followed up a week where they beat St. Bonaventure and Dayton, two other teams towards the top of the A-10. Their non-conference strength of schedule is awful (213 in the country) but they do have win over Washington, Oklahoma, Boston College, and Villanova - not exactly the 1927 Yankees but a better lineup than the Gophers' can show. And they're trending up. Fully expect Majerus to finally be back in the big dance.
5. Cal Bears. Ye, the Pac-10 is still horrible and yes, there's a good chance it's a one bid conference, but that's exactly what makes a team actually going out and doing something worthwhile notable because nobody ever does it in this league. The Bears went on their road trip through Southern California and won at both USC and UCLA (their RPIs are 228 and 121, but remember it's the Pac-10 so we're on a different curve here). This now brings them to 10-3 and 20-6 overall, and at least getting near the middle of the bubble. Oh, and in case you're wondering Justin Cobbs had 28 point and 10 assists in those two wins. (Also noteworthy: Oregon also was 2-0 this week. Devoe had 29 points and 7 assists.) It's so funny I'm going to stab myself in the ankle with the bayonet I have sitting next to the couch.
WHO SUCKED
1. Florida Gators. Bit of a rough one for the Gators and those who at one point listed the Gators as a sleeper Final Four team. First, on Tuesday, the had a big chance to make a statement going into Lexington to play the #1 Kentucky Wildcats and walked out 20-point losers, and then on Saturday they took a home gimme win vs. Tennessee and somehow ended up losing by five. Actually I shouldn't say somehow, because it's pretty obvious than when a team is as dependent on the three-pointer the way Florida is (6th in the country in % of points coming from behind the line) when the shots aren't falling they're screwed. The Gators 17-56 from behind the arc in those two games, significantly worse than their season mark of nearly 40%. And a special shout-out to Erving Walker and Bradley Beal, who, along with Kenny Boynton, are basically the entire team and were 1-11 from 3 against Kentucky and 2-11 against Tennessee. That reliance on the three makes them both a threat to make a run in March and an early upset candidate. Guess I'm going to have to guess right.
2. William Buford. Buford actually had a pretty good game earlier in the week against Purdue (29 points on 10-17 shooting) which hurt the narrative a bit but he's been absolutely awful lately other than that game, and saved one of his worst for their big loss against Sparty, shooting 2-12 with 3 turnover (to 1 assist) for a grand total of 4 points. Looking back, outside of that game against Purdue the last time Buford shot 50% or better in a game was the first game of 2012, and he's shot 29-104 in those games, and has had 29 turnover versus 21 assists. Ohio State is really good and are absolutely a title contender, but if Buford doesn't get it figured out there's no way they're getting past the sweet 16.
3. Baylor Bears. I still like these guys a lot, but after they lost to both Kansas (at home) and Missouri (on the road) this week it might be time to take a harder look. Because they've now been swept by both those teams, and considering there are only three really good teams in the Big 12 (with apologies to Iowa State) that means that Baylor hasn't had a good win in quite some time. There's no doubt they're still a very good team with the resume to prove it (wins over Kansas State, Miss State, West Virginia, St. Mary's, BYU, and San Diego State), but there are alarm bells ringing all over the place after those two sweeps. Worth noting that Perry Jones scored 5 points against Kansas on 1-8 shooting and 4 points on 2-12 shooting against Missouri, which means he's only broken double digit scoring once in four game against these two teams. I'm going to go ahead and not do anymore research and just assume he's a choker in big games. Join me, won't you?
4. The Grammys. I'm thrilled they chose to award the Foo Fighters with basically every award they were up for, but I can't forgive them for slighting Wiz Khalifa for best rap performance and song. You're seriously going to give the Grammy to Jay-Z and "Mail it in" Kanye for Otis over the masterpiece Black & Yellow from Wiz and give the other one to some collaboration with like six singer/rappers? Joke. I suppose I should just be happy it was nominated, but it should have won, but the politics of not giving a grammy to such a power collaboration probably made this inevitable. The grammys used to mean something and be about the music but, much like when they stopped eating the groundhog in Punxatawney, we live in a sissified society. Shame. Check it:
5. Murray State and Harvard. I'm going to lump these two schools together because they both have an outside chance at an at-large berth, both stumbled this weekend (Murray lost to Tennessee State or Tech I'm not sure but I'm not looking it up and Harvard lost to Princeton), and both should probably do everything they can to win their league. Harvard still looks pretty good with only one Ivy loss, and now that I look apparently Murray State is a lock to get an at-large according to ESPN so maybe I'm stupid. I'm sorry, but how exactly are they a lock? Even at 21-1 their RPI is 57 (Gophers are 54, FYI), Strength of schedule is 292, and non-conference strength of schedule is 132. They only have four wins over the RPI top 150, and the two best are over Memphis and Southern Miss whose RPIs are top 25 but everyone know they suck. One more conference loss and I say ship 'em to the NIT. Plus maybe then I'll get to see them live at Williams' Arena, score!
Oh, and in case you're wondering if you missed him, no, I didn't write about Jeremy Lin because oh my god will you people shut up.
Sunday, November 20, 2011
Week in Review - 11/17/2011
My recap of the last Gopher game is here (the win over Fairfield). In summary, I thought that although it was a very ugly game and the offense was truly atrocious, I liked how the Gophers were able to grind out the win using tough defense and free throw shooting. That's something the teams of the past couple years wouldn't have been able to do. They haven't had any easy wins (that should change tonight), but each of their wins so far has shown something positive about this year's edition of the squad. I feel like I'm setting myself up for some serious disappointment with how I'm starting to think of this team. God I hope I'm wrong.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Iowa State. And I'm actually talking the football team here, because they were a 28 point underdog against the #2 team in the country on Friday night in Oklahoma State, one of the best offenses in the country, and they stayed with them step for step, tying the game up at 24 with 5 minutes to go in the fourth after a long ass drive culminating in a huge TD. After forcing a punt, OSU picked off the Clone QB and looked to have a shot to win, but they missed the field goal and we were headed to OT. Tied up after the first one, some LB dude who the announcer guys said was a superstar dove in front of a Brandon Weeden pass and tipped it up where some other ISU dude picked it off. All ISU had to do was run the ball straight ahead and kick the field goal to win, but instead every time they gave it to this big white dude OSU basically dove out of the way and then TD Iowa State storm the field woo-hoo! Seriously though it was pretty awesome, especially because the Cyclones haven't been to a bowl game since I think like 1945. Of course this also means the BCS Championship could end up being two SEC teams that have already met which would be yawn, but whatevs. Awesomely fun game to watch.
2. Purdue Boilermakers. Purdue didn't win the Puerto Rico Shootout (Alabama beat them in the title game), but they did answer some questions by winning their first two games over Iona and Temple. Temple is a clear tournament team and Purdue's win over them is the best win any Big 10 team has so far this year, and although people who are dumb like you are going to say "Iona? Who gives a crap about Iona?" in reality the Gaels are legit and should win the MAAC (they're much better than Fairfield) and that might be the second best win any Big 10 team has (Iona just blew out Maryland by 20+). So if you were worried about Purdue being bad, you don't really have to worry anymore. I'm glad I could make you feel better.
3. Kentucky Wildcats. It's not that what they did was super impressive or anything (winning the Hall-of-Fame tipoff tournament by beating Penn State and Old Dominion), but it's just watching this team is simply stunning. They are so freaking good. Anthony Davis is ridiculously athletic and at 6-10 has the ball handling skills of a guard and fellow freshman Marquis Teague and Michael Gilchrist are just as talented if not more so. Then they got Terrence Jones, who will probably be a top 3 pick if the NBA comes back, as well as Doron Lamb who would be the best player on almost any team in America. Add in do it all senior Darius Miller and another freshman in Kyle Wiltjer (who, by the way, just dropped 19 on Penn State) and they're just loaded. I mean it's ridiculous. Hopefully they fall apart at some point in the tournament against an opponent who can take advantage of it, because this is easily the best team in the country and I really don't want Calipari to win a title. But just wow.
4. St. Louis Billikens. It seems like Rick Majerus should have turned the St. Louis program around by now, but so far all they have to show for his four years of service is a second round appearance in the CBI. Every year St. Louis looks like they might have the players to finally contend in the A-10, and every year they don't. Maybe this is finally the seasons, because the Billikens knocked of Washington on Sunday, and although Washington isn't ranked or anything they should still be an NCAA Tournament team, so this is certainly a significant victory. Actually, looking back over Majerus's tenure there, his only other notable non-conference wins were over Nebraska and Boston College, so it's probably safe to say this is the biggest win they've had since he got there. The schedule is gooey soft until a game at New Mexico on New Year's Eve, so there's a very good chance the Billikens start off the season 11-0. There's also a very good chance they end up missing the tournament after that start, but hey, it's something.
5. Northwestern Wildcats. No it wasn't exactly murder's row, but beating LSU, Tulsa, and Seton Hall to win the Charleston Classic is still a nice accomplishment early in the year. It also made it clear that it's pretty much going to be Shurna and Crawford this year. The two were Northwestern's top two scorers in each of the three games, with both of them averaging 24 per game, and with the Wildcats averaging 79 points per game that means Shurna and Crawford accounted for 60% of the team's scoring. Actually besides those two only Luka Mirkovic and Dave Sobolewski managed to hit for double figures in any single game. And you know what they say, only having two reliable scorers is always a recipe for long term success.
WHO SUCKED
1. UCLA. Holy effing meltdown. First they lost their season opener to Loyola Marymount, which is not good but not 100% terrible. Then coach Ben Howland suspended the team's best player Reeves Nelson for basically being a whiny bitch, and the team responded by getting whooped by 20 at home by Middle freaking Tennessee State in what would easily be the most embarrassing lost of the year so far if it wasn't for Cincinnati (see below). It's ridiculous, UCLA should be good. Here's a list of the top 100 recruits currently on the roster - Norman Powell, Tyler Lamb, Josh Smith, Reeves Nelson, Brendan Lane, Jerime Anderson, David Wear, and Travis Wear - damn near the entire roster! And yet, here we are. And next up? The Maui Invitational, which means they'll probably (probably!) beat Chaminade in the opener since they got lucky there and then get their doors blown off twice and start the year 1-4. Fire Howland? Fire Howland.
2. Virginia Commonwealth. And this, Shaka Smart, is why you should have taken one of those coaching offers at a power school. When you catch lightning in a bottle like last year, as opposed to Butler who slowly built their way up, you need to parlay that into a nice step up and a big payday, lest you fade away in bolivian. VCU went down to the Charleston Classic and walked out with a shiny 7th place finish after losing to Seton Hall and Georgia Tech and then beating an incredibly shitty Western Kentucky team. Seriously, it was a nice run and a great story, but with the fluky way it happened and losing 4 of their top 5 players Smart needed to bolt. He may never get this chance again. Not a very "smart" decision, Shaka. God I'm clever.
3. Akron. When you're a good team in a terrible conference, you need to do everything in your power to boost your NCAA profile because even 1-2 conference losses makes it tough to get a bid unless you have some high profile, quality victories outside of conference. So when you're the Zips and you beat Mississippi State (at MSU, even) you're all like "dude, sweet!" Then you go to some tournament held at Valparaiso for some reason and what do you do? Lose to Valparaiso and Duquesne, two non-tournament teams. Literally, assuming you don't count things like getting hit by a meteor or the whole team dying of Gonorrhea, this is the worst thing that could have possibly happened. Considering the best teams left on the schedule are Detroit, West Virginia, and Cleveland State, Akron nearly has to run the table or damn near to get a bid. Four games into the season and it's already over. It's like the Gophers of basketball. Or something. I don't know.
4. Cincinnati. Well there's no easy way to intro this, so I'll just come out and say it: the Bearcats, who were ranked 20th in the country, lost to Presbyterian. Presbyterian, who are a D-I squad for just the fifth year. Presbyterian, who have won a total of 37 games over the last five seasons, and six of those were over non D-I schools including a win over Carver Bible College. Presbyterian, whose biggest win in history was probably the one over Wake Forest last year, the worst Big 6 NCAAB team ever I'm pretty sure. Presbyterian, who lost to Duke by 31 already this year and got beat by Western Carolina who lost to South Carolina (who lost to Elon) by 25. Presbyterian, whose nickname is the Blue Hose for the love of christ. Yes, that Presbyterian. This is an awful, awful, awful, awful, awful loss. Awful. If the Gophers were 0-3 right now they wouldn't have hurt their NCAA chances as much as Cincinnati did on Saturday. Just wow.
5. Eli Manning. Holy jesus does this guy suck. Seriously he's got to be the worst quarterback in the NFL outside of Christian Ponder. It's unbelievable that this guy won a Super Bowl, and not only won one but beat maybe the best team in NFL history in doing so. God I hope he sends David Tyree a really kick-ass Christmas present every single year, or at least let's him live in his basement. Seriously if Peyton Manning's neck is all effed up and they like, end up having to put a Frankenstein bolt through his neck and he can't turn his head at all he'd still be a way be QB than Eli. Cooper is probably better, too. And Marqueis Gray.
And I'm not writing a preview for the freaking Mount Saint Mary's game. Seriously, it's a middling team from one of the worst conferences in America whose big goal for the year is to finish .500 in conference play. This needs to be a 30 point victory.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Iowa State. And I'm actually talking the football team here, because they were a 28 point underdog against the #2 team in the country on Friday night in Oklahoma State, one of the best offenses in the country, and they stayed with them step for step, tying the game up at 24 with 5 minutes to go in the fourth after a long ass drive culminating in a huge TD. After forcing a punt, OSU picked off the Clone QB and looked to have a shot to win, but they missed the field goal and we were headed to OT. Tied up after the first one, some LB dude who the announcer guys said was a superstar dove in front of a Brandon Weeden pass and tipped it up where some other ISU dude picked it off. All ISU had to do was run the ball straight ahead and kick the field goal to win, but instead every time they gave it to this big white dude OSU basically dove out of the way and then TD Iowa State storm the field woo-hoo! Seriously though it was pretty awesome, especially because the Cyclones haven't been to a bowl game since I think like 1945. Of course this also means the BCS Championship could end up being two SEC teams that have already met which would be yawn, but whatevs. Awesomely fun game to watch.
2. Purdue Boilermakers. Purdue didn't win the Puerto Rico Shootout (Alabama beat them in the title game), but they did answer some questions by winning their first two games over Iona and Temple. Temple is a clear tournament team and Purdue's win over them is the best win any Big 10 team has so far this year, and although people who are dumb like you are going to say "Iona? Who gives a crap about Iona?" in reality the Gaels are legit and should win the MAAC (they're much better than Fairfield) and that might be the second best win any Big 10 team has (Iona just blew out Maryland by 20+). So if you were worried about Purdue being bad, you don't really have to worry anymore. I'm glad I could make you feel better.
3. Kentucky Wildcats. It's not that what they did was super impressive or anything (winning the Hall-of-Fame tipoff tournament by beating Penn State and Old Dominion), but it's just watching this team is simply stunning. They are so freaking good. Anthony Davis is ridiculously athletic and at 6-10 has the ball handling skills of a guard and fellow freshman Marquis Teague and Michael Gilchrist are just as talented if not more so. Then they got Terrence Jones, who will probably be a top 3 pick if the NBA comes back, as well as Doron Lamb who would be the best player on almost any team in America. Add in do it all senior Darius Miller and another freshman in Kyle Wiltjer (who, by the way, just dropped 19 on Penn State) and they're just loaded. I mean it's ridiculous. Hopefully they fall apart at some point in the tournament against an opponent who can take advantage of it, because this is easily the best team in the country and I really don't want Calipari to win a title. But just wow.
4. St. Louis Billikens. It seems like Rick Majerus should have turned the St. Louis program around by now, but so far all they have to show for his four years of service is a second round appearance in the CBI. Every year St. Louis looks like they might have the players to finally contend in the A-10, and every year they don't. Maybe this is finally the seasons, because the Billikens knocked of Washington on Sunday, and although Washington isn't ranked or anything they should still be an NCAA Tournament team, so this is certainly a significant victory. Actually, looking back over Majerus's tenure there, his only other notable non-conference wins were over Nebraska and Boston College, so it's probably safe to say this is the biggest win they've had since he got there. The schedule is gooey soft until a game at New Mexico on New Year's Eve, so there's a very good chance the Billikens start off the season 11-0. There's also a very good chance they end up missing the tournament after that start, but hey, it's something.
5. Northwestern Wildcats. No it wasn't exactly murder's row, but beating LSU, Tulsa, and Seton Hall to win the Charleston Classic is still a nice accomplishment early in the year. It also made it clear that it's pretty much going to be Shurna and Crawford this year. The two were Northwestern's top two scorers in each of the three games, with both of them averaging 24 per game, and with the Wildcats averaging 79 points per game that means Shurna and Crawford accounted for 60% of the team's scoring. Actually besides those two only Luka Mirkovic and Dave Sobolewski managed to hit for double figures in any single game. And you know what they say, only having two reliable scorers is always a recipe for long term success.
WHO SUCKED
1. UCLA. Holy effing meltdown. First they lost their season opener to Loyola Marymount, which is not good but not 100% terrible. Then coach Ben Howland suspended the team's best player Reeves Nelson for basically being a whiny bitch, and the team responded by getting whooped by 20 at home by Middle freaking Tennessee State in what would easily be the most embarrassing lost of the year so far if it wasn't for Cincinnati (see below). It's ridiculous, UCLA should be good. Here's a list of the top 100 recruits currently on the roster - Norman Powell, Tyler Lamb, Josh Smith, Reeves Nelson, Brendan Lane, Jerime Anderson, David Wear, and Travis Wear - damn near the entire roster! And yet, here we are. And next up? The Maui Invitational, which means they'll probably (probably!) beat Chaminade in the opener since they got lucky there and then get their doors blown off twice and start the year 1-4. Fire Howland? Fire Howland.
2. Virginia Commonwealth. And this, Shaka Smart, is why you should have taken one of those coaching offers at a power school. When you catch lightning in a bottle like last year, as opposed to Butler who slowly built their way up, you need to parlay that into a nice step up and a big payday, lest you fade away in bolivian. VCU went down to the Charleston Classic and walked out with a shiny 7th place finish after losing to Seton Hall and Georgia Tech and then beating an incredibly shitty Western Kentucky team. Seriously, it was a nice run and a great story, but with the fluky way it happened and losing 4 of their top 5 players Smart needed to bolt. He may never get this chance again. Not a very "smart" decision, Shaka. God I'm clever.
3. Akron. When you're a good team in a terrible conference, you need to do everything in your power to boost your NCAA profile because even 1-2 conference losses makes it tough to get a bid unless you have some high profile, quality victories outside of conference. So when you're the Zips and you beat Mississippi State (at MSU, even) you're all like "dude, sweet!" Then you go to some tournament held at Valparaiso for some reason and what do you do? Lose to Valparaiso and Duquesne, two non-tournament teams. Literally, assuming you don't count things like getting hit by a meteor or the whole team dying of Gonorrhea, this is the worst thing that could have possibly happened. Considering the best teams left on the schedule are Detroit, West Virginia, and Cleveland State, Akron nearly has to run the table or damn near to get a bid. Four games into the season and it's already over. It's like the Gophers of basketball. Or something. I don't know.
4. Cincinnati. Well there's no easy way to intro this, so I'll just come out and say it: the Bearcats, who were ranked 20th in the country, lost to Presbyterian. Presbyterian, who are a D-I squad for just the fifth year. Presbyterian, who have won a total of 37 games over the last five seasons, and six of those were over non D-I schools including a win over Carver Bible College. Presbyterian, whose biggest win in history was probably the one over Wake Forest last year, the worst Big 6 NCAAB team ever I'm pretty sure. Presbyterian, who lost to Duke by 31 already this year and got beat by Western Carolina who lost to South Carolina (who lost to Elon) by 25. Presbyterian, whose nickname is the Blue Hose for the love of christ. Yes, that Presbyterian. This is an awful, awful, awful, awful, awful loss. Awful. If the Gophers were 0-3 right now they wouldn't have hurt their NCAA chances as much as Cincinnati did on Saturday. Just wow.
5. Eli Manning. Holy jesus does this guy suck. Seriously he's got to be the worst quarterback in the NFL outside of Christian Ponder. It's unbelievable that this guy won a Super Bowl, and not only won one but beat maybe the best team in NFL history in doing so. God I hope he sends David Tyree a really kick-ass Christmas present every single year, or at least let's him live in his basement. Seriously if Peyton Manning's neck is all effed up and they like, end up having to put a Frankenstein bolt through his neck and he can't turn his head at all he'd still be a way be QB than Eli. Cooper is probably better, too. And Marqueis Gray.
And I'm not writing a preview for the freaking Mount Saint Mary's game. Seriously, it's a middling team from one of the worst conferences in America whose big goal for the year is to finish .500 in conference play. This needs to be a 30 point victory.
Monday, September 26, 2011
NCAA Basketball Preview - The Atlantic 10
Here's what you're going to want to do - watch "New Girl" from Fox. It debuted on Tuesday night and I think me and the missus laughed more than we've ever laughed at the first episode of anything, and that includes Parks and Rec. It stars one of my big crushes, Zooey Deschanel, and although she's always been quirky funny she really, truly can carry a show as the funny lead and she knocks it out of the park here. Then there's three dumb guys who she moves in with who I've never heard of but actually do an adequate job.
So watch it. It's on every Tuesday at 8pm, and they're replaying the pilot on Saturday October 1st so do it. If you've ever trusted my judgement about anything, watch this show. But also know that I have dibs on Zooey. I've been into her since her Almost Famous and The Good Girl, so back off. I have dibs on her sister too.
I have a lot of dibs. Anyways, here comes the A-10!!!!!
1. XAVIER MUSKETEERS. Tu Holloway (who sounded cooler when he was going by Terrell) is back after nearly jumping to the NBA so that pretty much automatically makes Xavier the favorite because he's so retardedly good, but he's got plenty of help. Mark Lyons joins him in the backcourt and nearly doubled his scoring average last year all the way up to 13.6, and Kenny Frease is back to man the middle. All of which means X has their top three scorers back. They're also adding three top 140 recruits including Dezmine Wells, a SF who ranked #76 on Rivals list and is all but guaranteed to be the next Musketeer superstar. They also imported Travis Taylor who is not a crappy receiver from Florida but is in fact a power forward who transferred from Monmouth where he lit it up for nearly 18 points per game. I'm comfortable at this point saying Xavier doesn't rebuild, they just reload.
2. TEMPLE OWLS. If the back court is what really makes good teams good then Temple is off to a good start despite losing power forward Lavoy Allen who averaged 12 and 9 last year. Back is SG Ramone Moore, last year's leading scorer at over 15 per game, as well as Juan Fernandez. You remember Fernandez as the hipster pot head looking guy who killed Talor Battle with his off-balance miracle shot in the NCAA Tournament. He's super annoying to look at, really irritating to watch, and really his numbers aren't even that great and he can't really shoot, but somehow he has that annoying knack for making the plays when they're needed.
3. ST LOUIS BILLIKENS. I suppose it didn't make sense to think Rick Majerus would turn St. Louis around super fastly but I did because I love that fat-ass. But after a good year two seasons ago (11-5 A-10) they regressed hard last year, finishing at 6-10 last year, not in small part because their two best players - Willie Reed and Kwamain Mitchell - missed all of last season because of sexual assault charges. Both were cleared - Reed bolted for the NBA (undrafted, nice job genius), but getting Mitchell back is huge for a Billiken team that returns all five starters and their 8 top scorers from last season. If this isn't the year St. Louis makes the NCAA Tournament it's probably time to just end the program all together. Maybe all the other A-10 coaches could have fun little luau where they roast Majerus for food and invite A.C. Slater and it would be fun for all. Except Majerus.
4. GEORGE WASHINGTON COLONIALS. GW went an impressive 10-6 in the A-10 last season. Unfortunately that didn't remotely get them in the conversation for an NCAA bid because they didn't even come close to playing anybody in the non-conference slate and didn't beat any of the league's good teams during conference play. Still it's a good jumping off point for this season, and with only one starter gone from last year's team and getting back Lasan Kromah, who was second on the team in scoring two years ago as a freshman before missing last year with a foot injury, GW might be in contention to reach the NCAA Tournament. Tony Taylor is a player of the year candidate, and with a tougher schedule that includes games against Cal, Syracuse, and VCU, they have a shot.
5. CHARLOTTE 49ERS. The 49ers return four starters from last year's squad, but I'm not sure that's a good thing. Last year they couldn't shoot, turned the ball over like crazy, never registered assists, and couldn't play defense. All that led to a 10-20 record with just 2 conference wins. There is, however, reason to have some hope because three of those 10 wins came over Xavier, Tennessee, and Georgia Tech, so when things do come together for Charlotte they can play well, it just didn't happen with any regularity last year. Of those returners, three scored in double figures last year, including their top two assist and steal guys. If they can shoot a little better, take care of the ball a little better, and play better defense they could be dangerous. Yes, that's a lot of ifs and I don't know why I believe they'll be better. Maybe I just like green uniforms.
6. ST JOE'S HAWKS. I've seen St. Joe's referenced as a potential A-10 sleeper, but I'm not sure I really see it. Yes, they only lost one starter and not a very good one at that, but this is also a team that was beaten by the Gophers at home last year so how good can they be? Still, they have a couple of good guards including Carl Jones who is the third leading returning scorer in the conference with 17 per game, along with sophomore center C.J. Aiken who was ranked the #8 incoming freshman center in the country last season. Although Aiken is a bit of a project on offense he's already a killer on defense and averaged 3.5 blocks per game last season which led the conference and was second nationally. So I guess they do have some talent. But still, the Gophers.
7. DAYTON FLYERS. I've spent plenty of time in other A-10 previews talking about how Dayton has terrible fans so I won't rehash that here, especially since this year is going to be a toughie for the Flyers. Not only did they lose their coach, but they also lost leading scorer Chris Wright to graduation and freshman point guard Juwan Staten, who led the A-10 in assists, decided to transfer after realizing how much Dayton sucked. They still have Chris Johnson, a guy I really like who is an all-around kind of guy and superior athlete, and PG Kevin Dillard, a transfer from So Ill, led the MVC in assists his sophomore year so he's not a monster step down from Staten, but the talent level has definitely waned in Dayton. Gregory got out at the right time.
8. ST BONAVENTURE BONNIES. What St. Bonnie's has going for them is maybe the best player in the conference in Andrew Nicholson. What they don't have going for them is everything else. Nicholson is now a senior, and has gone from a 2-star center from Canada whose only D-I Scholarship offer came from St. Bonnie's to a guy who led the conference in scoring at 22 per game last year. All he needs is a little help and there's a couple of other returners who averaged in double-figures, but let's be honest St. Bonnie's has never been on tv so who am I kidding trying to write about them?
9. UMASS MINUTEMEN. They lose their best player and top scorer in Anthony Gurley, but return everybody else. The problem is that nobody besides Gurley averaged more than 8.5 points per game, so what you're left with is nine different players who averaged between 4.3 and 8.5 points per game last year, and I have no idea how that's going to shake itself out. If multiple players step up their game and become double digit scorers and all-conference types they could finish significantly higher than this. On the other hand, if nobody takes a leap and improves from last season they could be bottom dwellers. Obviously, I think neither of those things will happen and they'll just float here at #9. Go me!
10. DUQUESNE DUKES. The Dukes chance to shine was last year, but they came up a bit short. After starting the conference season 8-0, Duquesne limped to the finish at 2-6 and then were dropped in the first round of the A-10 tourney by crappy St. Joe's and ended up in the CBI since their non-conference resume was basically non-existent. Now both Damian Saunders and Bill Clark, two of the best players in Duquesne history, are gone and although there's still some talent here they certainly aren't in the same class they were in (or could have been in) last year. They return three pretty good guards, including A-10 rookie of the year T.J. McConnell, and since they play an extreme uptempo style that's a good start and they should end up ok, but they definitely whiffed on a big opportunity last season.
11. RICHMOND SPIDERS. After reaching the sweet 16 last year and setting a school record for victories, the Spiders have been massacred by graduations, losing four starters who accounted for nearly 70% of the team's scoring last year and over half of their rebounds and assists, including Kevin Anderson and Justin Harper who were both All A-10 first team selections last year. So yeah, they have a lot of uncertainty going on. Richmond has begun to establish itself as one of the elite basketball schools in the conference, but it's going to take some big years from unexpected places to keep them there.
12. FORDHAM RAMS. The sad thing about Fordham, other than the fact that their win totals have been three, two, and seven the past three years (and those are total wins, not conference wins), is that they actually have one of the best players in the conference in power forward Chris Gaston, who was the only A-10 player to average a double-double at 15.9 points and 11.3 rebounds (4th in the nation). The problem is he has zero help, so defenses really do nothing other than throw double and triple teams at him and it works because they are terrible at everything, and there's really no reason to think they're going to be much better. They lose their second leading scorer, but return two other double digit scorers in Branden Frazier (from Dudley Do-Right) and Alberto Estwick. If either of those guys can take some pressure of Gaston, maybe they could get to a CIT bid. Aim high.
13. RHODE ISLAND RAMS. Remember Jimmy Baron? The coaches son who played for the Rams a couple of years ago and rained down 8 three-pointers in Cameron and almost single-handedly beat Duke? He's been gone now for a couple of years, but little brother Billy just transferred in from Virginia and he profiles as a similar player. Which is good, because most of the excitement left Rhodey after last year with three of their top four scorers, including second team A-10 selection Delroy James. Joining Baron will be a couple returnees who are also excellent outside shooters and any time a team has a couple of outside threats they can also manage an upset or two, but that's about all the Rams will be good for this year.
14. LASALLE EXPLORERS. When Aaric Murray, who was ranked as the #35 overall recruit and #5 center in the country coming into school in 2009, it was a huge, huge deal. Here was a hometown kid from just outside Philly who was going to return the Explorers to the glory days of Lionel Simmons. Well. Insert fart sound. LaSalle went 4-12 and 6-10 in A-10 games the last two years, and although Murray put up good numbers he was also benched for poor effort last season and has now transferred to West Virgina with nary a post-season berth on the record. With two other double-digit scorers lost to graduation LaSalle finds itself in a position similar to the Minnesota Twins - no hope and no prospects, and one of the worst teams in the country.
Other Previews:
Big 12
ACC
So watch it. It's on every Tuesday at 8pm, and they're replaying the pilot on Saturday October 1st so do it. If you've ever trusted my judgement about anything, watch this show. But also know that I have dibs on Zooey. I've been into her since her Almost Famous and The Good Girl, so back off. I have dibs on her sister too.
I have a lot of dibs. Anyways, here comes the A-10!!!!!
1. XAVIER MUSKETEERS. Tu Holloway (who sounded cooler when he was going by Terrell) is back after nearly jumping to the NBA so that pretty much automatically makes Xavier the favorite because he's so retardedly good, but he's got plenty of help. Mark Lyons joins him in the backcourt and nearly doubled his scoring average last year all the way up to 13.6, and Kenny Frease is back to man the middle. All of which means X has their top three scorers back. They're also adding three top 140 recruits including Dezmine Wells, a SF who ranked #76 on Rivals list and is all but guaranteed to be the next Musketeer superstar. They also imported Travis Taylor who is not a crappy receiver from Florida but is in fact a power forward who transferred from Monmouth where he lit it up for nearly 18 points per game. I'm comfortable at this point saying Xavier doesn't rebuild, they just reload.
2. TEMPLE OWLS. If the back court is what really makes good teams good then Temple is off to a good start despite losing power forward Lavoy Allen who averaged 12 and 9 last year. Back is SG Ramone Moore, last year's leading scorer at over 15 per game, as well as Juan Fernandez. You remember Fernandez as the hipster pot head looking guy who killed Talor Battle with his off-balance miracle shot in the NCAA Tournament. He's super annoying to look at, really irritating to watch, and really his numbers aren't even that great and he can't really shoot, but somehow he has that annoying knack for making the plays when they're needed.
3. ST LOUIS BILLIKENS. I suppose it didn't make sense to think Rick Majerus would turn St. Louis around super fastly but I did because I love that fat-ass. But after a good year two seasons ago (11-5 A-10) they regressed hard last year, finishing at 6-10 last year, not in small part because their two best players - Willie Reed and Kwamain Mitchell - missed all of last season because of sexual assault charges. Both were cleared - Reed bolted for the NBA (undrafted, nice job genius), but getting Mitchell back is huge for a Billiken team that returns all five starters and their 8 top scorers from last season. If this isn't the year St. Louis makes the NCAA Tournament it's probably time to just end the program all together. Maybe all the other A-10 coaches could have fun little luau where they roast Majerus for food and invite A.C. Slater and it would be fun for all. Except Majerus.
4. GEORGE WASHINGTON COLONIALS. GW went an impressive 10-6 in the A-10 last season. Unfortunately that didn't remotely get them in the conversation for an NCAA bid because they didn't even come close to playing anybody in the non-conference slate and didn't beat any of the league's good teams during conference play. Still it's a good jumping off point for this season, and with only one starter gone from last year's team and getting back Lasan Kromah, who was second on the team in scoring two years ago as a freshman before missing last year with a foot injury, GW might be in contention to reach the NCAA Tournament. Tony Taylor is a player of the year candidate, and with a tougher schedule that includes games against Cal, Syracuse, and VCU, they have a shot.
5. CHARLOTTE 49ERS. The 49ers return four starters from last year's squad, but I'm not sure that's a good thing. Last year they couldn't shoot, turned the ball over like crazy, never registered assists, and couldn't play defense. All that led to a 10-20 record with just 2 conference wins. There is, however, reason to have some hope because three of those 10 wins came over Xavier, Tennessee, and Georgia Tech, so when things do come together for Charlotte they can play well, it just didn't happen with any regularity last year. Of those returners, three scored in double figures last year, including their top two assist and steal guys. If they can shoot a little better, take care of the ball a little better, and play better defense they could be dangerous. Yes, that's a lot of ifs and I don't know why I believe they'll be better. Maybe I just like green uniforms.
6. ST JOE'S HAWKS. I've seen St. Joe's referenced as a potential A-10 sleeper, but I'm not sure I really see it. Yes, they only lost one starter and not a very good one at that, but this is also a team that was beaten by the Gophers at home last year so how good can they be? Still, they have a couple of good guards including Carl Jones who is the third leading returning scorer in the conference with 17 per game, along with sophomore center C.J. Aiken who was ranked the #8 incoming freshman center in the country last season. Although Aiken is a bit of a project on offense he's already a killer on defense and averaged 3.5 blocks per game last season which led the conference and was second nationally. So I guess they do have some talent. But still, the Gophers.
7. DAYTON FLYERS. I've spent plenty of time in other A-10 previews talking about how Dayton has terrible fans so I won't rehash that here, especially since this year is going to be a toughie for the Flyers. Not only did they lose their coach, but they also lost leading scorer Chris Wright to graduation and freshman point guard Juwan Staten, who led the A-10 in assists, decided to transfer after realizing how much Dayton sucked. They still have Chris Johnson, a guy I really like who is an all-around kind of guy and superior athlete, and PG Kevin Dillard, a transfer from So Ill, led the MVC in assists his sophomore year so he's not a monster step down from Staten, but the talent level has definitely waned in Dayton. Gregory got out at the right time.
8. ST BONAVENTURE BONNIES. What St. Bonnie's has going for them is maybe the best player in the conference in Andrew Nicholson. What they don't have going for them is everything else. Nicholson is now a senior, and has gone from a 2-star center from Canada whose only D-I Scholarship offer came from St. Bonnie's to a guy who led the conference in scoring at 22 per game last year. All he needs is a little help and there's a couple of other returners who averaged in double-figures, but let's be honest St. Bonnie's has never been on tv so who am I kidding trying to write about them?
9. UMASS MINUTEMEN. They lose their best player and top scorer in Anthony Gurley, but return everybody else. The problem is that nobody besides Gurley averaged more than 8.5 points per game, so what you're left with is nine different players who averaged between 4.3 and 8.5 points per game last year, and I have no idea how that's going to shake itself out. If multiple players step up their game and become double digit scorers and all-conference types they could finish significantly higher than this. On the other hand, if nobody takes a leap and improves from last season they could be bottom dwellers. Obviously, I think neither of those things will happen and they'll just float here at #9. Go me!
10. DUQUESNE DUKES. The Dukes chance to shine was last year, but they came up a bit short. After starting the conference season 8-0, Duquesne limped to the finish at 2-6 and then were dropped in the first round of the A-10 tourney by crappy St. Joe's and ended up in the CBI since their non-conference resume was basically non-existent. Now both Damian Saunders and Bill Clark, two of the best players in Duquesne history, are gone and although there's still some talent here they certainly aren't in the same class they were in (or could have been in) last year. They return three pretty good guards, including A-10 rookie of the year T.J. McConnell, and since they play an extreme uptempo style that's a good start and they should end up ok, but they definitely whiffed on a big opportunity last season.
11. RICHMOND SPIDERS. After reaching the sweet 16 last year and setting a school record for victories, the Spiders have been massacred by graduations, losing four starters who accounted for nearly 70% of the team's scoring last year and over half of their rebounds and assists, including Kevin Anderson and Justin Harper who were both All A-10 first team selections last year. So yeah, they have a lot of uncertainty going on. Richmond has begun to establish itself as one of the elite basketball schools in the conference, but it's going to take some big years from unexpected places to keep them there.
12. FORDHAM RAMS. The sad thing about Fordham, other than the fact that their win totals have been three, two, and seven the past three years (and those are total wins, not conference wins), is that they actually have one of the best players in the conference in power forward Chris Gaston, who was the only A-10 player to average a double-double at 15.9 points and 11.3 rebounds (4th in the nation). The problem is he has zero help, so defenses really do nothing other than throw double and triple teams at him and it works because they are terrible at everything, and there's really no reason to think they're going to be much better. They lose their second leading scorer, but return two other double digit scorers in Branden Frazier (from Dudley Do-Right) and Alberto Estwick. If either of those guys can take some pressure of Gaston, maybe they could get to a CIT bid. Aim high.
13. RHODE ISLAND RAMS. Remember Jimmy Baron? The coaches son who played for the Rams a couple of years ago and rained down 8 three-pointers in Cameron and almost single-handedly beat Duke? He's been gone now for a couple of years, but little brother Billy just transferred in from Virginia and he profiles as a similar player. Which is good, because most of the excitement left Rhodey after last year with three of their top four scorers, including second team A-10 selection Delroy James. Joining Baron will be a couple returnees who are also excellent outside shooters and any time a team has a couple of outside threats they can also manage an upset or two, but that's about all the Rams will be good for this year.
14. LASALLE EXPLORERS. When Aaric Murray, who was ranked as the #35 overall recruit and #5 center in the country coming into school in 2009, it was a huge, huge deal. Here was a hometown kid from just outside Philly who was going to return the Explorers to the glory days of Lionel Simmons. Well. Insert fart sound. LaSalle went 4-12 and 6-10 in A-10 games the last two years, and although Murray put up good numbers he was also benched for poor effort last season and has now transferred to West Virgina with nary a post-season berth on the record. With two other double-digit scorers lost to graduation LaSalle finds itself in a position similar to the Minnesota Twins - no hope and no prospects, and one of the worst teams in the country.
Other Previews:
Big 12
ACC
Monday, October 25, 2010
Atlantic 10 College Basketball 2010 Preview
1. Xavier Musketeers. Take note, Dayton dorks, because this is what you call a dynasty. I remember last year, I think I picked the Musketeers fourth in the A-10 because of who was graduating, and they went ahead and won the conference, again, and made a nice run in the tournament, again. This year, they once again look like they might be down with Jordan Crawford off to the NBA, but Terrell Holloway is back and I love that little guy. His development from out of control spaz as a freshman (think Kevin Clark, any year) to stone cold killer has been fun to see, and now in his junior year this is clearly his team and I can't wait to see if he'll be better than Jake Pullen, or merely as good. With two other starters back, Mark Lyons and a slimmed down Kenny Frease ready to step in and start, and top25-type recruiting class coming in it wouldn't be a shock at all to see them in the sweet 16 for the fourth straight year.
2. Temple Owls. On paper this team is probably better than Xavier, but I learned my lesson last year about doubting the Musketeers. That said, Temple should easily hit their fourth straight NCAA Tournament, and they are certainly back to a perenially good program now under Fran Dunphy. The Owls lose leading scorer Ryan Brooks, but have enough pieces in place that it shouldn't hurt them. Juan Fernandez is an oustanding point guard who I really want to compare to Pepe Sanchez, but that's lazy since they're both hispanic so instead I'll say he reminds me a lot of Greivis Vasquez. With Lavoy Allen also back to dominate the inside, and last year's A-10 sixth man of the year Ramone Moore ready to slide in for Brooks, they're in great shape.
3. Richmond Spiders. Of all the graduating players in the conference, nobody is going to miss their guy more than the Spiders will miss David Gonzalvez. They still have point guard and A-10 player of the year Kevin Anderson back, but he and Gonzalvez formed a nearly unstoppable backcourt duo, averaging 32.4 points between the two of them - 46% of the team's scoring - and were the top two assist and steal guys to boot. Beyond finding someone to fill in for Gonzalvez, the big key for the season is the continued improvement of PF Justin Harper, who is suddenly getting "potential NBA pick" buzz, as well as if Dan Geriot can get back to close to what he was before he hurt his knee. He was a double-digit scorer and a beast inside before the injury, but averaged less the 7 points per game last year. If he is recoverd in year 2 post-surgery, this team goes from a good team to a great team.
4. St. Louis Billikens. Majerus's team was one of the youngest in the country last year, but came together and closed strong, finishing 11-5 in the A-10 and denied an NCAA berth due to a very weak non-conference schedule. This year the schedule has been upgraded along with the expectations, because with their top six scorers back - all of whom were unerclassmen last year - they are in position to get to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2000. Kwamain Mitchell (16 points, 3 rebs, 3 assists per game), Willie Reed (12 pts, 8 rebs, 2 blks), and Cody Ellis (11 pts, 5 rebs) are a dynamic trio, and the Billikens were one of the toughest defensive teams in the country last year. Pay attention to their game November 20th vs. Georgia - the result of that one will help give a gauge on how "for real" this team is. [NOTE: I have since been informed that Mitchell and Reed have been suspended due to some chick framing them for some kind of sex allegation. This obviously means that they're screwed.]
5. Dayton Flyers. I've talked about this on here before, but is there a more overrated program than the Flyers? They continually get praised as if they've accomplished something, but they've only made one NCAA Tournament in the last six years, and they continually underachieve. Once again this year they'll be built around an overrated power forward who can't stay healthy and a bunch of guards with gigantic question marks surrounded them . Either way I still have a special place in my heart for Dayton fans, who are almost identical to Packer fans. They have the same mix of delusion, overconfidence, and entitlement, mixed with a dash of overconfidence and a sprinkle of questionable personal hygiene and mental problems.
6. Charlotte 49ers. Interesting team here. They were cruising towards an NCAA berth last year at 18-5 and 8-1 in conference play before a 1-7 close to the season, including losses to G. Washington and UMass, left them out of postseason play altogether. Last year's point guard (Dijuan Harris) is gone and there's some concern about if anybody on the roster can replac ehim, but they return most of last year's team, including the dynamic inside duo of Shamari Spears (16 ppg/6 rpg last year) and Chris Braswell (10 and 9). New coach Alan Major has a reputation for getting the most out of post players, so this sounds like a good combo to me. Not like those pizzeria pretzel combos. Seriously, who thought that one up? Gross.
7. Rhode Island Rams. The Rams might not make the NCAA Tournament all that often, but they are always a tough, tough, tough matchup, and there's no reason for that not to be the case again this year. They lose two double-digit scorers from last year's team, but that doesn't mean they aren't still in good shape. The three returning starters are all good players and give you an excellent balance of a ball-handler (Marquis Jones - 4.1 assists per game, third in A-10), an athletic wing (Delroy James - 13.2ppg, and second on team in 3-pointers despite being 6-8), and a big man in seven-footer Will Martell (8pts, 5 rebs). Martell needs to improve because his rebounds and blocks are low for a seven-footer and he's the man down low this year.
8. Duquesne Dukes. The Dukes return one of the best players you've never heard of in Damian Saunders, a double-double machine who doesn't mind blocking your shot right back in your stupid face if you were dumb enough to bring it to his house. With four other big-time contributors back, including #2 leading scorer in guard Bill Clark and point guard Eric Evans, this will probably be the best Duquesne team in 30 years, not that it's exactly a huge feat, but you gotta start somewhere. The Dukes made the NIT two years ago but dropped back into the CBI last season - their first back-to-back postseasons since 1980-1981. Time to take that next step, boy-os. Do it for Mike James.
10. UMass Minutemen. Leading scorer Ricky Harris is gone and UMass won just twelve games last year, but there is some reason to be optimistic based on what's coming back. Anthony Gurley, Terrell Vinson, and Freddie Riley are all good all-around wing types who averaged over or close to double-digits in scoring last year and all showed at different times that they are capable of taking over a game against a quality opponent - they just all have to bring that A game at the same time. If they can find some consistent point guard play (overall UMass had more turnovers than assists) they could finish higher than this. You could almost call them a sleeper, except they aren't quite good enough.
10. George Washington Colonials. GW has ten of last year's twelve contributors back, but one of the guys who is missing is last seasons leading scorer, Damian Hollis, and they weren't exactly world beaters last year, going just 16-13 (6-10 in A10), and it was an empty 16 wins without a single good victory in there anywhere that I could find. So how do you rate experience coming back, but save a couple of guys, subpar talent? 10th, apparently.
11. LaSalle Explorers. If you ever want proof that I'm an idiot, you can look at my picking this team to be one of the top teams in the A-10 last year - probably my biggest whiff ever. Rodney Green was a superstar and Aaric Murray was a top recruit and I thought they'd surprise. Well, they did. They surprised the hell out of me by being a bunch of worthless sucks who sucked. Now Green is gone, Murray is overrated, and I'll never trust these guys again. At least until Lionel Simmons II comes to town.
12. St. Joseph's Hawks. I don't believe it would be possible to pick a worse time to have a home-and-home with the Hawks, because they were brutal last year and this year ain't fixin' to get much better. Remember these guys last year? The team the Gophers beat 97-74 and won just five conference games? Well, it's basically the same team as last year, except their two best players graduated. Actually, there is reason for optimism and a good reason to look forward to watching them play, and that's freshman center C.J. Aiken, who was ranked by Rivals as the #8 center who should play immediately. They also added a couple other solidly ranked, athletic freshman to give them one of the better classes in the conference, that just won't make much of a difference this year.
13. St. Bonaventure Bonnies. The good news is that stud big man Andrew Nicholson is back, and last year as a sophomore he was good enough to average 16 points and 7 rebounds per game while shooting 56% from the field. Pretty awesome. The bad news is that Jonathan Hall and Chris Matthews (no relation to Eric and Cory) graduated and took over 25% of the team's scoring with them (nearly 50% of the non-Nicholson points) and starting point guard Malcolm Eleby is gone after getting into a fight on-campus. Why that couldn't have happened to Lawrence Westbrook I'll never know.
14. Fordham Rams. This is familiar. Two years ago Fordham was terrible, but Jio Fontan had a huge year and was the only bright spot. Then he transferred. Last year, the Rams were again terrible, but Chris Gaston was a monster, notching 19 double-doubles, and going 30 & 10 three times. No, he hasn't transferred, but Fordham promises to be awful once again, so he'd have every right to in my book. Loyalty is admirable, but who wants to play for at team that's won five games the last two season combined. Yes, combined. And I mean five total wins, not five conference wins. It ain't easy being one of the worst offensive and worst defensive teams in the country, Fordham just makes it look easy.
Other Previews:
Other Previews:
Pac-10 College Basketball 2010 Preview
ACC College Basketball 2010 Preview
Big 12 College Basketball 2010 Preview
Big East College Basketball 2010 Preview
2. Temple Owls. On paper this team is probably better than Xavier, but I learned my lesson last year about doubting the Musketeers. That said, Temple should easily hit their fourth straight NCAA Tournament, and they are certainly back to a perenially good program now under Fran Dunphy. The Owls lose leading scorer Ryan Brooks, but have enough pieces in place that it shouldn't hurt them. Juan Fernandez is an oustanding point guard who I really want to compare to Pepe Sanchez, but that's lazy since they're both hispanic so instead I'll say he reminds me a lot of Greivis Vasquez. With Lavoy Allen also back to dominate the inside, and last year's A-10 sixth man of the year Ramone Moore ready to slide in for Brooks, they're in great shape.
3. Richmond Spiders. Of all the graduating players in the conference, nobody is going to miss their guy more than the Spiders will miss David Gonzalvez. They still have point guard and A-10 player of the year Kevin Anderson back, but he and Gonzalvez formed a nearly unstoppable backcourt duo, averaging 32.4 points between the two of them - 46% of the team's scoring - and were the top two assist and steal guys to boot. Beyond finding someone to fill in for Gonzalvez, the big key for the season is the continued improvement of PF Justin Harper, who is suddenly getting "potential NBA pick" buzz, as well as if Dan Geriot can get back to close to what he was before he hurt his knee. He was a double-digit scorer and a beast inside before the injury, but averaged less the 7 points per game last year. If he is recoverd in year 2 post-surgery, this team goes from a good team to a great team.
4. St. Louis Billikens. Majerus's team was one of the youngest in the country last year, but came together and closed strong, finishing 11-5 in the A-10 and denied an NCAA berth due to a very weak non-conference schedule. This year the schedule has been upgraded along with the expectations, because with their top six scorers back - all of whom were unerclassmen last year - they are in position to get to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2000. Kwamain Mitchell (16 points, 3 rebs, 3 assists per game), Willie Reed (12 pts, 8 rebs, 2 blks), and Cody Ellis (11 pts, 5 rebs) are a dynamic trio, and the Billikens were one of the toughest defensive teams in the country last year. Pay attention to their game November 20th vs. Georgia - the result of that one will help give a gauge on how "for real" this team is. [NOTE: I have since been informed that Mitchell and Reed have been suspended due to some chick framing them for some kind of sex allegation. This obviously means that they're screwed.]
5. Dayton Flyers. I've talked about this on here before, but is there a more overrated program than the Flyers? They continually get praised as if they've accomplished something, but they've only made one NCAA Tournament in the last six years, and they continually underachieve. Once again this year they'll be built around an overrated power forward who can't stay healthy and a bunch of guards with gigantic question marks surrounded them . Either way I still have a special place in my heart for Dayton fans, who are almost identical to Packer fans. They have the same mix of delusion, overconfidence, and entitlement, mixed with a dash of overconfidence and a sprinkle of questionable personal hygiene and mental problems.
6. Charlotte 49ers. Interesting team here. They were cruising towards an NCAA berth last year at 18-5 and 8-1 in conference play before a 1-7 close to the season, including losses to G. Washington and UMass, left them out of postseason play altogether. Last year's point guard (Dijuan Harris) is gone and there's some concern about if anybody on the roster can replac ehim, but they return most of last year's team, including the dynamic inside duo of Shamari Spears (16 ppg/6 rpg last year) and Chris Braswell (10 and 9). New coach Alan Major has a reputation for getting the most out of post players, so this sounds like a good combo to me. Not like those pizzeria pretzel combos. Seriously, who thought that one up? Gross.
7. Rhode Island Rams. The Rams might not make the NCAA Tournament all that often, but they are always a tough, tough, tough matchup, and there's no reason for that not to be the case again this year. They lose two double-digit scorers from last year's team, but that doesn't mean they aren't still in good shape. The three returning starters are all good players and give you an excellent balance of a ball-handler (Marquis Jones - 4.1 assists per game, third in A-10), an athletic wing (Delroy James - 13.2ppg, and second on team in 3-pointers despite being 6-8), and a big man in seven-footer Will Martell (8pts, 5 rebs). Martell needs to improve because his rebounds and blocks are low for a seven-footer and he's the man down low this year.
8. Duquesne Dukes. The Dukes return one of the best players you've never heard of in Damian Saunders, a double-double machine who doesn't mind blocking your shot right back in your stupid face if you were dumb enough to bring it to his house. With four other big-time contributors back, including #2 leading scorer in guard Bill Clark and point guard Eric Evans, this will probably be the best Duquesne team in 30 years, not that it's exactly a huge feat, but you gotta start somewhere. The Dukes made the NIT two years ago but dropped back into the CBI last season - their first back-to-back postseasons since 1980-1981. Time to take that next step, boy-os. Do it for Mike James.
10. UMass Minutemen. Leading scorer Ricky Harris is gone and UMass won just twelve games last year, but there is some reason to be optimistic based on what's coming back. Anthony Gurley, Terrell Vinson, and Freddie Riley are all good all-around wing types who averaged over or close to double-digits in scoring last year and all showed at different times that they are capable of taking over a game against a quality opponent - they just all have to bring that A game at the same time. If they can find some consistent point guard play (overall UMass had more turnovers than assists) they could finish higher than this. You could almost call them a sleeper, except they aren't quite good enough.
10. George Washington Colonials. GW has ten of last year's twelve contributors back, but one of the guys who is missing is last seasons leading scorer, Damian Hollis, and they weren't exactly world beaters last year, going just 16-13 (6-10 in A10), and it was an empty 16 wins without a single good victory in there anywhere that I could find. So how do you rate experience coming back, but save a couple of guys, subpar talent? 10th, apparently.
11. LaSalle Explorers. If you ever want proof that I'm an idiot, you can look at my picking this team to be one of the top teams in the A-10 last year - probably my biggest whiff ever. Rodney Green was a superstar and Aaric Murray was a top recruit and I thought they'd surprise. Well, they did. They surprised the hell out of me by being a bunch of worthless sucks who sucked. Now Green is gone, Murray is overrated, and I'll never trust these guys again. At least until Lionel Simmons II comes to town.
12. St. Joseph's Hawks. I don't believe it would be possible to pick a worse time to have a home-and-home with the Hawks, because they were brutal last year and this year ain't fixin' to get much better. Remember these guys last year? The team the Gophers beat 97-74 and won just five conference games? Well, it's basically the same team as last year, except their two best players graduated. Actually, there is reason for optimism and a good reason to look forward to watching them play, and that's freshman center C.J. Aiken, who was ranked by Rivals as the #8 center who should play immediately. They also added a couple other solidly ranked, athletic freshman to give them one of the better classes in the conference, that just won't make much of a difference this year.
13. St. Bonaventure Bonnies. The good news is that stud big man Andrew Nicholson is back, and last year as a sophomore he was good enough to average 16 points and 7 rebounds per game while shooting 56% from the field. Pretty awesome. The bad news is that Jonathan Hall and Chris Matthews (no relation to Eric and Cory) graduated and took over 25% of the team's scoring with them (nearly 50% of the non-Nicholson points) and starting point guard Malcolm Eleby is gone after getting into a fight on-campus. Why that couldn't have happened to Lawrence Westbrook I'll never know.
14. Fordham Rams. This is familiar. Two years ago Fordham was terrible, but Jio Fontan had a huge year and was the only bright spot. Then he transferred. Last year, the Rams were again terrible, but Chris Gaston was a monster, notching 19 double-doubles, and going 30 & 10 three times. No, he hasn't transferred, but Fordham promises to be awful once again, so he'd have every right to in my book. Loyalty is admirable, but who wants to play for at team that's won five games the last two season combined. Yes, combined. And I mean five total wins, not five conference wins. It ain't easy being one of the worst offensive and worst defensive teams in the country, Fordham just makes it look easy.
Other Previews:
Other Previews:
Pac-10 College Basketball 2010 Preview
ACC College Basketball 2010 Preview
Big 12 College Basketball 2010 Preview
Big East College Basketball 2010 Preview
Monday, March 1, 2010
Week in Review - 3/1/2010
Well that was a pretty good win. Not good as in pretty, or good as in they finally figured out how to close out a game, but good as in that was a season saver. I can't really give you the usual brilliant, in-depth analysis you've come to expect because I was watching the game while at a beer bust, but I saw enough to know my prediction of a big gopher lead early, a gopher lead late, and a Illinois comeback and win damn near came true. That's not the important thing, however. The important thing is that they did get this win, and now are in ok shape for a tournament bid, even showing up on the "last four out" for Joe Lunardi. Win at Michigan and beat Iowa here, then win one big ten tournament game and it's very interesting.
If you just compare the Gophers and Illinois quick, they have basically the same record, although Illinois is two games better in conference play. The Gophers have the better RPI (70 to 74) and better Strength of Schedule (37 to 61). Both teams have two wins over top 25 RPI teams, while Illinois has a total of four over top 50 teams compared to just three for the Gophers and they have nearly identical records against the top 100. The Gophers have three bad losses (vs. teams over 100 in the RPI) while Illinois has two. The Gophers are 4-8 in road/neutral games, while Illinois is 6-8. The best win by either of the two teams goes to the Gophers with their win over Butler, and both team's have beaten Wisconsin.
I know the bids supposedly don't compare teams within the conference like this and look at the team's as an overall whole, but it's useful to know where the Gophers stand in comparison to the Illini. It also serves as a depressing reminder that if you reverse almost any loss on the Gopher schedule, they are ahead of Illinois, but as it stands right now they are probably slightly behind. In any case, it's time to win. There's no room for error.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Notre Dame. Bill Simmons' Ewing Theory in full effect? Seriously, has anybody has as impressive a week all year as Notre Dame had this week? They beat both Pitt and Georgetown, both by double-digits, and have gone from "probably out" to "probably in" all in a four day span - and they've done it without Luke Harangody. Since he's been out it's just been a bunch of role-players just used to deferring to him, but maybe we're finding out they aren't role players (even if Tory Jackson has the decision-making skills of a rock). Ben Hansbrough has stepped up his scoring since Harangody went out, averaging 15 per game (compared to 12), but the guy who has really helped out is junior forward Carleton Scott, who is averaging 9.3 points and 6.3 rebounds per game since the injury compared to 3.5 of each beforehand. Basically the Irish have played really well since Luke went down, and now find themselves in good shape for an NCAA bid. Which means he'll come back next week, they'll lose two, bow out early in the Big East tournament, and find themselves in the NIT again.
2. Syracuse. Wow. And also, wow. What an impressive victory over Villanova, the alleged #8 team in the land. The Orange smoked Scottie Reynolds and the rest of those dorks 95-77 which followed up their road win earlier in the week over Providence. To go out and annihilate another top ten team like the Wildcats is impressive, and I'm starting to think the Orange are the team to beat in March. I was pretty clearly wrong about Wes Johnson, who is an absolute stud, and I think Andy Rautins used my criticism of him from last year as a motivational tool because he's somehow become a top flight point guard and he's not even a point guard. I was talking to a friend who is a Syracuse alum, and he said that this isn't the Cuse's most talented team, but it is their best. He said usually they have a focal point guy who a lot of times undermines the whole team concept - it worked with Carmelo, didn't with Donte Greene - but this year it's just seven guys who have bought in to the team concept. Really good team. Right now, they're probably my #1.
3. New Mexico. If you kind of thought New Mexico wasn't anything special and just kept rising in the polls because they were basically just chillin' in the Mountain West, you aren't alone. If you still think that, you're an idiot. The Lobos put the word out that they are the real deal, going into Provo and beat BYU 83-81, the Cougars first home loss this year and one of only a handful the last few years. The win clinches at least a tie for the MWC crown for the Lobos, and brings New Mexico to 6-0 this year against ranked teams. That's right, 6-0. They've beaten BYU twice, UNLV, Cal, Texas Tech, and Texas A&M, and also have wins over decent teams like Dayton, Louisiana Tech, and New Mexico State. Three of this team's top four players are of the 6-5 to 6-8 athletic wing types, and the other dude gives them the strong and experience point play you need in March. This team is a threat.
4. Marquette. Now this is how a bubble team is supposed to respond to a challenge in late March. Marquette was probably right in the middle of the bubble, but with two wins this week, both on the road, both in overtime, and one over fellow bubble team Seton Hall, they're probably in for sure. First, the Eagles beat St. John's in their place 63-61 on a Jimmy Butler jumper as time expired in overtime, and then they went to Seton Hall and knocked the Pirates out of NCAA contention 84-83. I didn't expect much out of Marquette this year, not after losing three starting guards who were basically the whole team, but Lazar Hayward has gotten even better and Butler and Darius Johnson-Odom are very good players. And Marquette is probably better than the 19-9 record would indicate. Other than an inexplicable loss to DePaul and an early season loss to NC State every loss on the record has been by single-digits to an NCAA-caliber team.
5. Tay Waller. I know you don't know who this is, but that's why I'm here, to be nerdy enough about college hoops to know who people like Tay Waller are. And also he's on my fantasy team, which has now made the finals. Anyway, Waller had a big week but you won't hear about because he plays for crappy Auburn. The 6-2 senior guard for the Tigers was a top 10 JuCo player back in 2008 coming out of NW Florida Community College, and after being pretty solid for his year and three-quarters (way better than Bostick) he's really hit his stride, scoring more than 26 in each of Auburn's last three games, scoring 29 against Ole Miss in a loss and then 26 to lead the Tigers to a win over LSU this week. He's not on any NBA radars or anything, but he'll probably end up making a nice living overseas, and he deserves to be recognized even if he plays for the shitbox that is the Auburn Tigers. Plus, he probably gets to roll around with broads like these all the time.
WHO SUCKED
1. Wake Forest. Probably the worst week any team has had in the history of basketball. No joke. The Demon Deacons started off the week by losing at ACC bottom-feeder North Carolina State, and then followed that up by getting embarrassed at home by the embarrassing Carolina Tar Heels. To put this in Big Ten terms, that would be like losing at Indiana and then losing at home to Michigan. [NOTE: I just realized what I did there. hahahahahahahahahaha kill me.] And I had the misfortune to watch a good chunk of that Carolina game, and holy crap is Wake awful. I've never seen a team play so lazily and selfishly all at the same time. It was like watching five Westbrooks. I refuse to believe this team is 8-6 in the ACC, and was 8-3 at one point. This is a first-round upset waiting to happen, I don't care if they draw Bethune-Cookman in round one.
2. John Wall. Has the phenom hit the proverbial wall? His raw numbers are ok - 12 pts, 5 rebounds, 4 assists in a 20-point win over South Carolina and 19-5-6 in the loss to Tennessee, but if you look deeper he had a pretty sub-par week. He shot just 10-31 overall and was 0-7 from three-point range, and he turned the ball over 11 times in the two games - yes, that's more turnovers than field goals made this week. And although he has always been a bit of a turnover machine (averaging 4.0 per game) his shooting is what would really concern me - he hasn't shot better than 50% in a game since February 2nd. Maybe it's just a simple fluctuation of his numbers, but if I was a Kentucky fan I'd be pretty concerned that he seems to be struggling a bit at this time of the year. In any case, there's no way a team this young (three of the top four players are freshmen) and this volatile (both Cousins and Wall are crazy) with that coach is going to the final four. You go ahead and pick them there, but they're going to get knocked off by some seven seed. Just watch.
3. Virginia Tech. When your hopes for an at-large bid are best described as "little margin for error and only in decent shape because of an impressive ACC record" one thing you really shouldn't do is go out the next week and drop two ACC games - one at home (to Maryland) and one to a bottom-tier team (Boston College). The Hokies are still 21-7 overall and 8-6 in conference play, but there's not a whole lot to be impressed with. They have a win over Clemson, one over Wake, and a non-conference win over Seton Hall, and that's it. Everything else is against a bottom tier team. I don't know what to think about their chances, they're a super confusing team. You could make a pretty good argument spanning anywhere from "they should be easily in" to "they have no chance." Take your pick.
4. The Atlantic 10. Going into this week there were seven teams in the A-10 that had a shot at getting an at-large bid to the tournament, but things are not breaking the right way and it's starting to look more and more likely that the conference will end up with three teams going (Temple, Xavier, and Richmond are all basically locks). Dayton is probably fourth on the list, but at 8-6 in the conference might not have enough juice, and they had a huge chance to knock of Temple this week and whiffed. Another team that had a chance at a big upset and missed out was St. Louis, who has a nice 10-4 conference record but is lacking big wins, which makes their loss to Xavier this week even more damaging. Charlotte and Rhode Island both looked to have an inside track at a bid earlier this year, but both have faded coming down the stretch and both knocked themselves out of bid contention with losses they couldn't have this weekend - Charlotte lost to George Washington, Rhode Island to St. Bonaventure. So the A-10 will likely have just three teams dancing, maybe four if Dayton gets it together, which isn't bad, but isn't as lofty as it could have been. Also, Richmond and Temple are going down quickly, Xavier is the only team here that can make a run. Mark it down.
5. Purdue. Ruh roh. You kind of had to wonder just how the Boilers would respond with Robbie Hummel out. They still have E'Twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson which still gives them one of the better 1-2 punches in the country, but Hummel was kind of the glue guy, along with being a top scorer. They certainly didn't have any time to ease into, welcoming Michigan State to Keady Court right off the bat, and the results weren't pretty. The only managed 44 points, shot just 30%, and were out-rebounded 44-16 as the Spartans won 53-44. Yes by the way, those numbers are correct they were out-rebounded 44-16. I think they'll end up being a lot better without Hummel than they showed on Sunday, and they have games against Penn State and Indiana this coming week to work on some things, but this has to be a pretty big concern for Boiler Nation.
I guess there was also some kind of big whoopity-doo hockey game between the Americans and the Commies or something, but I didn't really pay attention. I heard the commies won, so I expect Canada to start taking over Red Dawn style anytime now. WOLVERINES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (but not on Tuesday)
BUBBLE GAMES OF NOTE:
Fresno State @ Utah State. I've written about them before, but the beat rolls on. USU needs to win and keep winning. Even at 23-6 they can't really afford a loss because, outside of a win over BYU, there's not much there in the non-conference profile. They would probably be ok if they lost in the WAC final to either New Mexico State or Louisiana Tech, but any loss short of that will keep likely knock them out of at-large consideration
If you just compare the Gophers and Illinois quick, they have basically the same record, although Illinois is two games better in conference play. The Gophers have the better RPI (70 to 74) and better Strength of Schedule (37 to 61). Both teams have two wins over top 25 RPI teams, while Illinois has a total of four over top 50 teams compared to just three for the Gophers and they have nearly identical records against the top 100. The Gophers have three bad losses (vs. teams over 100 in the RPI) while Illinois has two. The Gophers are 4-8 in road/neutral games, while Illinois is 6-8. The best win by either of the two teams goes to the Gophers with their win over Butler, and both team's have beaten Wisconsin.
I know the bids supposedly don't compare teams within the conference like this and look at the team's as an overall whole, but it's useful to know where the Gophers stand in comparison to the Illini. It also serves as a depressing reminder that if you reverse almost any loss on the Gopher schedule, they are ahead of Illinois, but as it stands right now they are probably slightly behind. In any case, it's time to win. There's no room for error.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Notre Dame. Bill Simmons' Ewing Theory in full effect? Seriously, has anybody has as impressive a week all year as Notre Dame had this week? They beat both Pitt and Georgetown, both by double-digits, and have gone from "probably out" to "probably in" all in a four day span - and they've done it without Luke Harangody. Since he's been out it's just been a bunch of role-players just used to deferring to him, but maybe we're finding out they aren't role players (even if Tory Jackson has the decision-making skills of a rock). Ben Hansbrough has stepped up his scoring since Harangody went out, averaging 15 per game (compared to 12), but the guy who has really helped out is junior forward Carleton Scott, who is averaging 9.3 points and 6.3 rebounds per game since the injury compared to 3.5 of each beforehand. Basically the Irish have played really well since Luke went down, and now find themselves in good shape for an NCAA bid. Which means he'll come back next week, they'll lose two, bow out early in the Big East tournament, and find themselves in the NIT again.
2. Syracuse. Wow. And also, wow. What an impressive victory over Villanova, the alleged #8 team in the land. The Orange smoked Scottie Reynolds and the rest of those dorks 95-77 which followed up their road win earlier in the week over Providence. To go out and annihilate another top ten team like the Wildcats is impressive, and I'm starting to think the Orange are the team to beat in March. I was pretty clearly wrong about Wes Johnson, who is an absolute stud, and I think Andy Rautins used my criticism of him from last year as a motivational tool because he's somehow become a top flight point guard and he's not even a point guard. I was talking to a friend who is a Syracuse alum, and he said that this isn't the Cuse's most talented team, but it is their best. He said usually they have a focal point guy who a lot of times undermines the whole team concept - it worked with Carmelo, didn't with Donte Greene - but this year it's just seven guys who have bought in to the team concept. Really good team. Right now, they're probably my #1.
3. New Mexico. If you kind of thought New Mexico wasn't anything special and just kept rising in the polls because they were basically just chillin' in the Mountain West, you aren't alone. If you still think that, you're an idiot. The Lobos put the word out that they are the real deal, going into Provo and beat BYU 83-81, the Cougars first home loss this year and one of only a handful the last few years. The win clinches at least a tie for the MWC crown for the Lobos, and brings New Mexico to 6-0 this year against ranked teams. That's right, 6-0. They've beaten BYU twice, UNLV, Cal, Texas Tech, and Texas A&M, and also have wins over decent teams like Dayton, Louisiana Tech, and New Mexico State. Three of this team's top four players are of the 6-5 to 6-8 athletic wing types, and the other dude gives them the strong and experience point play you need in March. This team is a threat.
4. Marquette. Now this is how a bubble team is supposed to respond to a challenge in late March. Marquette was probably right in the middle of the bubble, but with two wins this week, both on the road, both in overtime, and one over fellow bubble team Seton Hall, they're probably in for sure. First, the Eagles beat St. John's in their place 63-61 on a Jimmy Butler jumper as time expired in overtime, and then they went to Seton Hall and knocked the Pirates out of NCAA contention 84-83. I didn't expect much out of Marquette this year, not after losing three starting guards who were basically the whole team, but Lazar Hayward has gotten even better and Butler and Darius Johnson-Odom are very good players. And Marquette is probably better than the 19-9 record would indicate. Other than an inexplicable loss to DePaul and an early season loss to NC State every loss on the record has been by single-digits to an NCAA-caliber team.
5. Tay Waller. I know you don't know who this is, but that's why I'm here, to be nerdy enough about college hoops to know who people like Tay Waller are. And also he's on my fantasy team, which has now made the finals. Anyway, Waller had a big week but you won't hear about because he plays for crappy Auburn. The 6-2 senior guard for the Tigers was a top 10 JuCo player back in 2008 coming out of NW Florida Community College, and after being pretty solid for his year and three-quarters (way better than Bostick) he's really hit his stride, scoring more than 26 in each of Auburn's last three games, scoring 29 against Ole Miss in a loss and then 26 to lead the Tigers to a win over LSU this week. He's not on any NBA radars or anything, but he'll probably end up making a nice living overseas, and he deserves to be recognized even if he plays for the shitbox that is the Auburn Tigers. Plus, he probably gets to roll around with broads like these all the time.
WHO SUCKED
1. Wake Forest. Probably the worst week any team has had in the history of basketball. No joke. The Demon Deacons started off the week by losing at ACC bottom-feeder North Carolina State, and then followed that up by getting embarrassed at home by the embarrassing Carolina Tar Heels. To put this in Big Ten terms, that would be like losing at Indiana and then losing at home to Michigan. [NOTE: I just realized what I did there. hahahahahahahahahaha kill me.] And I had the misfortune to watch a good chunk of that Carolina game, and holy crap is Wake awful. I've never seen a team play so lazily and selfishly all at the same time. It was like watching five Westbrooks. I refuse to believe this team is 8-6 in the ACC, and was 8-3 at one point. This is a first-round upset waiting to happen, I don't care if they draw Bethune-Cookman in round one.
2. John Wall. Has the phenom hit the proverbial wall? His raw numbers are ok - 12 pts, 5 rebounds, 4 assists in a 20-point win over South Carolina and 19-5-6 in the loss to Tennessee, but if you look deeper he had a pretty sub-par week. He shot just 10-31 overall and was 0-7 from three-point range, and he turned the ball over 11 times in the two games - yes, that's more turnovers than field goals made this week. And although he has always been a bit of a turnover machine (averaging 4.0 per game) his shooting is what would really concern me - he hasn't shot better than 50% in a game since February 2nd. Maybe it's just a simple fluctuation of his numbers, but if I was a Kentucky fan I'd be pretty concerned that he seems to be struggling a bit at this time of the year. In any case, there's no way a team this young (three of the top four players are freshmen) and this volatile (both Cousins and Wall are crazy) with that coach is going to the final four. You go ahead and pick them there, but they're going to get knocked off by some seven seed. Just watch.
3. Virginia Tech. When your hopes for an at-large bid are best described as "little margin for error and only in decent shape because of an impressive ACC record" one thing you really shouldn't do is go out the next week and drop two ACC games - one at home (to Maryland) and one to a bottom-tier team (Boston College). The Hokies are still 21-7 overall and 8-6 in conference play, but there's not a whole lot to be impressed with. They have a win over Clemson, one over Wake, and a non-conference win over Seton Hall, and that's it. Everything else is against a bottom tier team. I don't know what to think about their chances, they're a super confusing team. You could make a pretty good argument spanning anywhere from "they should be easily in" to "they have no chance." Take your pick.
4. The Atlantic 10. Going into this week there were seven teams in the A-10 that had a shot at getting an at-large bid to the tournament, but things are not breaking the right way and it's starting to look more and more likely that the conference will end up with three teams going (Temple, Xavier, and Richmond are all basically locks). Dayton is probably fourth on the list, but at 8-6 in the conference might not have enough juice, and they had a huge chance to knock of Temple this week and whiffed. Another team that had a chance at a big upset and missed out was St. Louis, who has a nice 10-4 conference record but is lacking big wins, which makes their loss to Xavier this week even more damaging. Charlotte and Rhode Island both looked to have an inside track at a bid earlier this year, but both have faded coming down the stretch and both knocked themselves out of bid contention with losses they couldn't have this weekend - Charlotte lost to George Washington, Rhode Island to St. Bonaventure. So the A-10 will likely have just three teams dancing, maybe four if Dayton gets it together, which isn't bad, but isn't as lofty as it could have been. Also, Richmond and Temple are going down quickly, Xavier is the only team here that can make a run. Mark it down.
5. Purdue. Ruh roh. You kind of had to wonder just how the Boilers would respond with Robbie Hummel out. They still have E'Twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson which still gives them one of the better 1-2 punches in the country, but Hummel was kind of the glue guy, along with being a top scorer. They certainly didn't have any time to ease into, welcoming Michigan State to Keady Court right off the bat, and the results weren't pretty. The only managed 44 points, shot just 30%, and were out-rebounded 44-16 as the Spartans won 53-44. Yes by the way, those numbers are correct they were out-rebounded 44-16. I think they'll end up being a lot better without Hummel than they showed on Sunday, and they have games against Penn State and Indiana this coming week to work on some things, but this has to be a pretty big concern for Boiler Nation.
I guess there was also some kind of big whoopity-doo hockey game between the Americans and the Commies or something, but I didn't really pay attention. I heard the commies won, so I expect Canada to start taking over Red Dawn style anytime now. WOLVERINES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (but not on Tuesday)
BUBBLE GAMES OF NOTE:
Fresno State @ Utah State. I've written about them before, but the beat rolls on. USU needs to win and keep winning. Even at 23-6 they can't really afford a loss because, outside of a win over BYU, there's not much there in the non-conference profile. They would probably be ok if they lost in the WAC final to either New Mexico State or Louisiana Tech, but any loss short of that will keep likely knock them out of at-large consideration
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