Story of the year for the Gophers, right? Play a much better, more talented team extremely close for a portion of the game and come up short. Yeah, I suppose the other stories of the year are beating a few good teams at Williams and also losing to some teams that they should beat, but this Michigan game from the tip seemed like a narrative of the year to the point where I could have written the game story before they even tipped off.
Rather than go into a whole thing where I could once again point out defensive lapses, stupid turnovers, and a seemingly pathological inability to get a loose ball, let's step back and see where the Gophers stand right now in the big picture, and try to figure out what they need to do to get a NCAA tournament bid because at this point they are basically the poster child for a bubble team.
And by the way, if I was going to write about the Michigan, and I'm not, I would definitely point out that when a defense constantly doubles the ball handler on ball screens it's pretty important for the offense to exploit that because, fun fact, if two guys are guarding one guy that means three guys are guarding four guys and if an offense has proper spacing and the ball handler has good enough anticipation and vision and the other offensive players can move the ball quickly there should be a lot of open shots. With an exception or two the Gopher offense was rarely able to take advantage of this situation, which came up a lot, and that could have made a big difference in the game. But again, I'm not going to talk about that instead let's look at some stuff.
The Gophers are now 17-12 and 7-10 in conference play, neither of which is very impressive. The RPI is 47 and the Strength of Schedule is 3, and those numbers are pretty good combined. All of which means the Gophers are squarely on the middle of the bubble, which feels way to god damn familiar. The Gophers have 2 wins over the RPI top 25 and 6 over the top 100 with no really truly bad losses, as horrific as the Illinois and Northwestern home losses feel. Basically this can still go either way. I see four distinct ways this breaks:
1) Gophers beat Penn State, lose early in the tournament (defined as first round game).
2) Gophers beat Penn State, go on a run in the tournament (defined as 2 or more wins).
3) Gophers lose to Penn State, lose early in the tournament.
4) Gophers lose to Penn State, go on a run in the tournament.
#3 isn't worth talking about because they have no shot at getting a bid in this scenario. #2 I will pass on as well because I think a three game winning streak to close it out, which would include a win over somebody good like Wisconsin, and they're comfortably in. The other two scenarios are where things get icky.
Let's say the Gophers beat Penn State, draw Illinois in the first round of the B10 tournament, and then lose to Ohio State. Is that enough? 8-10 in a very good league with an PRI likely in the low 40s? IF they had done anything at all on the road or on a neutral court this year I'd say this would probably be safe, but the committee won't look favorably on that road//neutral column. This probably makes for a really uncomfortable Selection Sunday.
How about if the Gophers lose at home against Penn State to drop to 7-11 in the Conference, but then beat Illinois and Wisconsin in the tournament? Will that be enough? Adding a quality win on a neutral court to the ledger can only help, but I feel like that loss to PSU in this scenario and the horrendous 7-11 conference record would keep them out. In this scenario I think they'd have to win the next game too against like, Michigan. Possible, but unlikely.
Three ways I see the Gophers have a shot:
1. Beat Penn State, win 2 games in the B10 Tournament. In this scenario I say they're 90% in. Probably a 9-10ish seed.
2. Beat Penn State, win 1 game in the B10 Tournament. This I would call 50/50 and would be pretty heavily dependent on how some of the conference tournaments break. Go Wichita. Probably a 12ish seed if they get in this situation.
3. Lose to Penn State, win 3 games in the B10 Tournament. This I would say is also 50/50 to get a bid. The lost to the Nittany Lions would be a pretty bad black mark, but winning three tournament games would net the Gophers two more high quality wins. In this case, even though I think it would be 50/50, if they did get in I'd guess they'd be around a 10 seed. I think the committee will either focus on the number of good wins and they'll be comfortably in, or focus on the horrible conference record and keep them way the hell out.
So I guess I'm counting on 3 straight wins to close out the season. I'm super optimistic.
Showing posts with label Bubble Watch. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bubble Watch. Show all posts
Sunday, March 2, 2014
Monday, February 3, 2014
Northwestern 55, Gophers 54
Am I really supposed to write about this game? I've now had an entire day, including a very unsatisfying Super Bowl, to get over the disappointment and I still don't want to write about. However I am pretty sure if I pass on writing on this game I will just quit altogether and as much as I'd like to do that I don't want to do that. So here is a very quick 10 Things I Liked and Didn't Like. Unless I do that thing I sometimes do where I just vomit words all over the screen, then it won't be short.
1. Meet the old boss, same as the new boss? There are a whole lot of things I like about Richard Pitino when compared directly to Tubby Smith. Energy. Players improving. Uptempo game. More imaginative offense. Gameplanning for specific opponents. I am a fan. A big fan. But what is this shit where February is just a shit bath every year? I don't care that Northwestern has some good wins lately and is looking frisky, you don't lose to them at home. There recent success has seen their RPI creep up into the top 100 (#83) so technically this won't go down as a bad loss, but this was a bad loss. I will get into NCAA bid chances later, but even if this one didn't hurt as much as you'd think because of that non-horrible RPI, it really hurts because this is a game you just don't lose if you're an NCAA team.
2. The Gophers got shredded by a terrible offense. Northwestern has shown some success lately due to their tough defense, not a good offense. The Wildcats scored 1.02 points per possession and shot 48% from two and 38% from three. Their season numbers are 0.96, 46.5%, and 30%. Their in-conference numbers are 0.87, 45%, and 27%. They have been awful all year and even worse in Big Ten play, and they lit the Gophers up (at least comparatively). I will grant that Northwestern seemed to hit an awful lot of tough shots, but that shouldn't make a difference. Horrendous defense, and it's been a problem all year. This, however, was the worst.
3. Whining about the refs is really not the way to go. Did the refs miss a foul call on Mathieu and/or Walker at the conclusion of the game? Seems like a strong possibility. I haven't gone back and watched it because I have better things to do like impale each of my fingers with a bamboo skewer, but I've read enough, even from none raging homers, that it sounds like a case can be made that both were fouled. Doesn't matter. First of all, they both had lay-ups and even with a minor foul those shots need to be made. Secondly, the Gophers played so shitty that leaving the final result to the refs is their own fault for letting it get to that point. There are one billion things to worry about from this game before you get to the refs. Not an exaggeration.
4. This team is still way too careless with the ball. I know it seems weird to complain about turnovers after a game where the Gophers only turned it over 8 times and on a percentage basis were below their season average and even below Northwestern's defensive season average, but they're just so careless sometimes. There are turnovers where a team's pressure forces you into bad situations, and then there are turnovers where you just give the ball away for no real reason at all and the Gophers' turnovers yesterday were almost exclusively the latter. I mean you just can't turn the ball over on a simple post entry when the defender isn't even attempting to deny the pass, and that happened at least 3 times with two passes going through Mo Walker's legs like he was some shitty hockey goalie guy. Northwestern doesn't care if they turn you over, so there's no reason to help them out.
5. On the positive side, Austin Hollis appears to be registering a pulse again. 13 points on 5-10 shooting, five rebounds, two assists, and three steals with zero turnovers. Most importantly he looked confident again. Starting with the open scrimmage thing and carrying into the early season Hollins was carrying himself with some serious senior swagger and in general that bodes well for a breakout type final year. I have no idea what happened or when, but he lost all that. The crazy thing about watching college kids is you never quite know what's happening. His girlfriend could have broken up with him or he's struggling in chemistry or he discovered weed (Sammy J -> hi), it could be anything but he just didn't look the same on the court. He still can't shoot for shit, but he's finally doing that thing where he flies all over the floor and grabs boards and gets steals. That's a bunch of games in a row now where he's looked like the old Austin, and with Dre still out hopefully he keeps that up and forgets about that devil woman or derivatives or precipitates or whatever.
6. Daquein McNeil looked pretty good. I was impressed. He played a career high of 24 minutes on Saturday (previous high was 13) and although the box score doesn't jump out at your stupid face if you watched him he looked good for an unheralded freshman. He's clearly passed Maverick on the point guard depth chart, which is a good thing considering outside of a wide open shot Mav is basically a complete disaster with the ball in his hands, and after some early season jitters he seems to have settled in and belies a calm beyond his years. I mentioned to Snacks that McNeil was started to look like he might end up a pretty decent Big Ten player, and we wondered how good he would have ended up being in the Sun Belt or wherever the hell FIU plays. There was a lot of understandable skepticism about a Sun Belt recruit suddenly being taken to the Big Ten and I wasn't sure about it myself, but I'm now glad he ended up a Gopher. I'm sure Dawger still prefers Maverick, but he also thinks Cal Ripken was overrated so what are you gonna do?
7. The Gophers have developed a couple of pet plays and I like them both a lot. The first is pretty basic, but you have to have the right personnel and the Gophers do with Mo Walker. A guard simply enters the ball to Walker at the free throw line and he turns and looks for a baseline cutter. Walker has the basketball savvy and passing skill to make this work (skills that were evident his freshman year as well, unlike his sudden ability to dominate the paint and score like it's his job). This worked a few times against Northwestern which was surprising considering how fundamentally sound they usually are. If the Gophers had won I would probably go back and rewatch these to see how it happened, but as it stands I'd rather rewatch World War Z than this game so forget it. The other play they will break out 2-3 times a game and it's the one they used to get Malik Smith that huge three pointer against Michigan. Dre Mathieu will drive from the right side and take the ball baseline, while two shooters spot up on the opposite side - one in the corner and the other on the wing. With the defense collapsing to stop the drive one of them almost always seems to be open. It seemed to be the corner guy earlier in the season, but as teams have gotten more tape on the play usually it's the wing guy these days, and luckily Mathieu seems to make the right decision. It would be a better play if anybody could shoot on this team, but I like it anyway.
8. Tre Demps is a stone cold assassin. Demps is becoming the kind of guy who you can look at the stats and laugh and stuff but god damn would I love him on my team. Much like Malik Smith is a chucker but he's our chucker, Demps is the same for Northwestern except he's been hitting huge shot after huge shot. Three pointer against the Gophers in a tie game with 54 seconds remaining. Five points and three assists in a four minute span against Wisconsin to give Northwestern control of the game. Game tying 3-pointer with a minute left in overtime against Purdue and then 4-4 on free throws in double OT to close it out. Thirteen straight points at the end of the game against Indiana. Three 3-pointers in a row down the stretch against Illinois. In every single Northwestern Big Ten win this year, and there are a shocking number of them, you can find a stretch where Demps controlled the game for the Wildcats, whether it was a single huge shot or a stretch where he carried their offense. Guy is just owning the Big Ten right now.
9. This team desperately needs Andre Hollins back. It sounds like it's possible he'll be back for Purdue, but more likely Indiana and it can't happen soon enough. I love DeAndre Mathieu a lot, but he's better when he's not forced into being the only creator, and with Hollins down he's the only one who can get into the paint off the dribble. Not to mention he's your best shooter, one of your top defenders, and the clear team leader. I was hoping the team could tread water while they waited for him to get healthy, but this has been more like treading bricks.
10. NCAA hopes aren't dead or anything so calm down nancy. This loss was definitely a hit, but as it currently stands (per ESPN) the RPI is 37 and Strength of Schedule still a robust #6. The Gophers are 2-3 vs. the RPI Top 25, 4-4 vs. the Top 50, and 5-8 vs. the Top 100 - these are all good numbers. Thanks to Northwestern's RPI jump, the Gophers still don't have a bad loss (outside the Top 100), and that's probably just as relevant as anything else on their resume. The issue now is that the home game vs. Northwestern was one everyone was counting on as a win, and with them dropping the game at Nebraska as well suddenly the margin for error is razor thin. The Gophers probably need five more wins, and now only the home games against Penn State and Illinois look like "sure" wins. The next two games are huge, @Purdue and home vs. Indiana. The Gophers don't necessarily need to win both, but it would be awfully nice and then they'd only need to "steal" one of the remaining five games, which is doable. On the one hand, it's nice to even worry about this because I wasn't sure the Gophers would even be a bubble team at the start of the year. On the other hand, this sucks because one week ago the Gophers weren't a bubble team but were solidly in the tournament. Looks like this year is going to be like every other, down to the bubble wire. I really need a year where this isn't the case.
1. Meet the old boss, same as the new boss? There are a whole lot of things I like about Richard Pitino when compared directly to Tubby Smith. Energy. Players improving. Uptempo game. More imaginative offense. Gameplanning for specific opponents. I am a fan. A big fan. But what is this shit where February is just a shit bath every year? I don't care that Northwestern has some good wins lately and is looking frisky, you don't lose to them at home. There recent success has seen their RPI creep up into the top 100 (#83) so technically this won't go down as a bad loss, but this was a bad loss. I will get into NCAA bid chances later, but even if this one didn't hurt as much as you'd think because of that non-horrible RPI, it really hurts because this is a game you just don't lose if you're an NCAA team.
2. The Gophers got shredded by a terrible offense. Northwestern has shown some success lately due to their tough defense, not a good offense. The Wildcats scored 1.02 points per possession and shot 48% from two and 38% from three. Their season numbers are 0.96, 46.5%, and 30%. Their in-conference numbers are 0.87, 45%, and 27%. They have been awful all year and even worse in Big Ten play, and they lit the Gophers up (at least comparatively). I will grant that Northwestern seemed to hit an awful lot of tough shots, but that shouldn't make a difference. Horrendous defense, and it's been a problem all year. This, however, was the worst.
3. Whining about the refs is really not the way to go. Did the refs miss a foul call on Mathieu and/or Walker at the conclusion of the game? Seems like a strong possibility. I haven't gone back and watched it because I have better things to do like impale each of my fingers with a bamboo skewer, but I've read enough, even from none raging homers, that it sounds like a case can be made that both were fouled. Doesn't matter. First of all, they both had lay-ups and even with a minor foul those shots need to be made. Secondly, the Gophers played so shitty that leaving the final result to the refs is their own fault for letting it get to that point. There are one billion things to worry about from this game before you get to the refs. Not an exaggeration.
4. This team is still way too careless with the ball. I know it seems weird to complain about turnovers after a game where the Gophers only turned it over 8 times and on a percentage basis were below their season average and even below Northwestern's defensive season average, but they're just so careless sometimes. There are turnovers where a team's pressure forces you into bad situations, and then there are turnovers where you just give the ball away for no real reason at all and the Gophers' turnovers yesterday were almost exclusively the latter. I mean you just can't turn the ball over on a simple post entry when the defender isn't even attempting to deny the pass, and that happened at least 3 times with two passes going through Mo Walker's legs like he was some shitty hockey goalie guy. Northwestern doesn't care if they turn you over, so there's no reason to help them out.
5. On the positive side, Austin Hollis appears to be registering a pulse again. 13 points on 5-10 shooting, five rebounds, two assists, and three steals with zero turnovers. Most importantly he looked confident again. Starting with the open scrimmage thing and carrying into the early season Hollins was carrying himself with some serious senior swagger and in general that bodes well for a breakout type final year. I have no idea what happened or when, but he lost all that. The crazy thing about watching college kids is you never quite know what's happening. His girlfriend could have broken up with him or he's struggling in chemistry or he discovered weed (Sammy J -> hi), it could be anything but he just didn't look the same on the court. He still can't shoot for shit, but he's finally doing that thing where he flies all over the floor and grabs boards and gets steals. That's a bunch of games in a row now where he's looked like the old Austin, and with Dre still out hopefully he keeps that up and forgets about that devil woman or derivatives or precipitates or whatever.
6. Daquein McNeil looked pretty good. I was impressed. He played a career high of 24 minutes on Saturday (previous high was 13) and although the box score doesn't jump out at your stupid face if you watched him he looked good for an unheralded freshman. He's clearly passed Maverick on the point guard depth chart, which is a good thing considering outside of a wide open shot Mav is basically a complete disaster with the ball in his hands, and after some early season jitters he seems to have settled in and belies a calm beyond his years. I mentioned to Snacks that McNeil was started to look like he might end up a pretty decent Big Ten player, and we wondered how good he would have ended up being in the Sun Belt or wherever the hell FIU plays. There was a lot of understandable skepticism about a Sun Belt recruit suddenly being taken to the Big Ten and I wasn't sure about it myself, but I'm now glad he ended up a Gopher. I'm sure Dawger still prefers Maverick, but he also thinks Cal Ripken was overrated so what are you gonna do?
7. The Gophers have developed a couple of pet plays and I like them both a lot. The first is pretty basic, but you have to have the right personnel and the Gophers do with Mo Walker. A guard simply enters the ball to Walker at the free throw line and he turns and looks for a baseline cutter. Walker has the basketball savvy and passing skill to make this work (skills that were evident his freshman year as well, unlike his sudden ability to dominate the paint and score like it's his job). This worked a few times against Northwestern which was surprising considering how fundamentally sound they usually are. If the Gophers had won I would probably go back and rewatch these to see how it happened, but as it stands I'd rather rewatch World War Z than this game so forget it. The other play they will break out 2-3 times a game and it's the one they used to get Malik Smith that huge three pointer against Michigan. Dre Mathieu will drive from the right side and take the ball baseline, while two shooters spot up on the opposite side - one in the corner and the other on the wing. With the defense collapsing to stop the drive one of them almost always seems to be open. It seemed to be the corner guy earlier in the season, but as teams have gotten more tape on the play usually it's the wing guy these days, and luckily Mathieu seems to make the right decision. It would be a better play if anybody could shoot on this team, but I like it anyway.
8. Tre Demps is a stone cold assassin. Demps is becoming the kind of guy who you can look at the stats and laugh and stuff but god damn would I love him on my team. Much like Malik Smith is a chucker but he's our chucker, Demps is the same for Northwestern except he's been hitting huge shot after huge shot. Three pointer against the Gophers in a tie game with 54 seconds remaining. Five points and three assists in a four minute span against Wisconsin to give Northwestern control of the game. Game tying 3-pointer with a minute left in overtime against Purdue and then 4-4 on free throws in double OT to close it out. Thirteen straight points at the end of the game against Indiana. Three 3-pointers in a row down the stretch against Illinois. In every single Northwestern Big Ten win this year, and there are a shocking number of them, you can find a stretch where Demps controlled the game for the Wildcats, whether it was a single huge shot or a stretch where he carried their offense. Guy is just owning the Big Ten right now.
9. This team desperately needs Andre Hollins back. It sounds like it's possible he'll be back for Purdue, but more likely Indiana and it can't happen soon enough. I love DeAndre Mathieu a lot, but he's better when he's not forced into being the only creator, and with Hollins down he's the only one who can get into the paint off the dribble. Not to mention he's your best shooter, one of your top defenders, and the clear team leader. I was hoping the team could tread water while they waited for him to get healthy, but this has been more like treading bricks.
10. NCAA hopes aren't dead or anything so calm down nancy. This loss was definitely a hit, but as it currently stands (per ESPN) the RPI is 37 and Strength of Schedule still a robust #6. The Gophers are 2-3 vs. the RPI Top 25, 4-4 vs. the Top 50, and 5-8 vs. the Top 100 - these are all good numbers. Thanks to Northwestern's RPI jump, the Gophers still don't have a bad loss (outside the Top 100), and that's probably just as relevant as anything else on their resume. The issue now is that the home game vs. Northwestern was one everyone was counting on as a win, and with them dropping the game at Nebraska as well suddenly the margin for error is razor thin. The Gophers probably need five more wins, and now only the home games against Penn State and Illinois look like "sure" wins. The next two games are huge, @Purdue and home vs. Indiana. The Gophers don't necessarily need to win both, but it would be awfully nice and then they'd only need to "steal" one of the remaining five games, which is doable. On the one hand, it's nice to even worry about this because I wasn't sure the Gophers would even be a bubble team at the start of the year. On the other hand, this sucks because one week ago the Gophers weren't a bubble team but were solidly in the tournament. Looks like this year is going to be like every other, down to the bubble wire. I really need a year where this isn't the case.
Thursday, January 23, 2014
Gophers 81, Badgers 68
Great win. Fun win. Quickly on to the ten things I liked and didn't like:
1. What kind of 5-9 guy takes the ball right at a 7-footer and scores (twice!)? What more can we say about DeAndre Mathieu at this point? Guy is incredible. Try to imagine a guy 15 inches taller than you with enough athletic ability to be a major college major sport athlete, then try to imagine doing literally anything with him trying to stop you, yet Honey Gopher took it right at Frank Kaminsky twice at the rim and scored. Add in his ballhandling, passing ability, the best mid range jumper on the team, and his defense and I'm not so sure we should be talking about Andre Hollins as the best player on this team. There just are no words left for Mathieu. I think I've written positively about him after every single game. It's incredible that he was late JuCo signee. He's just so good.
2. Please baby santa jesus let Andre Hollins be ok. Yes that was a great win without him, and it didn't have the feel of a "uh oh our best player is hurt everybody raise your game" kind of emotional win, just a straight out outplayed a good team win. That makes me think that even worst case scenario, which I think I have already mentally prepared myself for, the Gophers will at least be ok. That being said, obviously this team will be in much better shape for any kind of March run with Dre on the court so please please please let him be ok. The timing is a bit of a break (I probably shouldn't use this word) because they just went through the toughest part of the schedule and have a relatively easier stretch coming, not to mention only one game in the next nine days so hopefully the rest will help. He's getting an MRI today, so hope for some good news [EDIT: I just read that the MRI came back negative. Whew. Hopefully he can rest up and only miss a game or two].
3. It would be impossible to talk about this game without mentioning Mo Walker. Wow, I never saw that coming. With Elliot Eliason in early foul trouble and most ineffective, Walker absolutely dominated the paint. He fought for post up position and when he got the ball he attacked the rim, especially whenever he had a smaller player on him, and off the ball he was all over the offensive glass. We got a glimpse of this against Ohio State when he had that miracle 60 seconds or whatever, but he put a full game together against Wisconsin and it was glorious. I'm not quite ready to say he's arrived - his footwork is still only so so and he has a tendency to wait to long to actually go up for the shot - but he's at least on the bus and on the way. Do you realize he had the second most shot attempts on the team in that game? No idea where that aggressiveness has suddenly come from, but I'm a big fan.
4. Speaking of big men, Nigel Hayes is going to be a nightmare. As good as Walker was, I came away more impressed with Hayes than anyone else outside Honey Gopher last night. That's about as polished a post game as I can remember seeing in a freshman in quite some time, and he's already nailing the mid range jump shot, and since he's a Badger you know that will eventually evolve into a 3-point shot a la Jon Leuer and countless others. He needs some defensive work as most freshman do, and he'll eventually become more aggressive, but he's already got the offensive game to be a force. Hopefully Bo Ryan does that thing where he makes him fall in love with the three pointer and stay off the block. That would really be ideal for everyone other than the Badgers and Badger fans and screw them.
5. I could not be more impressed with this team's offense. The Gophers scored 1.40 points per possession and once again crushed it on two point shots, shooting 59%. I've talked before about how I love a creative offense, but Pitino has gone completely away from that and with the team buying in it's working. It's basically become pick and rolls with the goal dribble penetration, and picks in the lane to help the big guys established good position on the block. They have pretty much become an attack the rim type team and a more patient team, and I'm in favor. I love how against bad teams they spread the floor and shot a bunch of threes, to where I believe they were at about 40% of all attempts were three pointers. Now in Big Ten play that number is just 33%, 7th in the conference. The Gophers only took 7 three pointers last night, and seeing as how they aren't a great shooting team using that shot when it's there rather than making it a main offensive weapon seems like a good way to go.
6. Related, the defense was....ok. Not to great, allowed 1.17 points per possession, but considering Wisconsin's season number is 1.20 I suppose we'll take it. I actually had trouble figuring out what exactly the Gophers were running, and at one point I thought it might have been a match-up zone. The more I watched, the more I realized it was a simple man-to-man but with extreme sagging into the lane away from the ball. That's good as far as taking away dribble penetration, which has killed the Gophers, but you're playing with fire against a good three point shooting team with basically at least four shooters on the floor at all times. Luckily the defensive energy was high and the Gophers were able to close out effectively when needed and the rotations were solid. It helped that the Badgers missed a few open looks, but all in all a decent defensive performance against a very, very good offensive team.
7. Malik Smith is a really valuable player. He's just steady, a rare quality for a chucker and it might even remove him from chucker status altogether. Do you know he has the best turnover rate on the team and one of the better ones for a guard in the conference? Sure he takes some shots that really can only be described as "kind of dumb" and sure when he tries to drive the lane it can sometimes look like the way fourth graders drive the lane (although that was working for him last night) but he seems to be a calming influence, and kind of a leader out there which I really wasn't expecting. He's learned how to fit into an offense where he isn't the #1 option, and has really dialed back his three point attempts. He even tries on defense. I thought I'd like him for his chuckeration, but I just like him as an overall piece of the team instead.
8. Joey King simply has to be better in the post. He's just fine as a spot up shooter and fits the stretch four role Pitino loves well in that regard, but a couple of times against Wisconsin he found himself on the block guarded by Ben Brust or Josh Gasser and when he got the ball he was unable to score and did so horribly. It's actually an improvement that he didn't travel. This needs to be his #1 offseason project. For all his faults, Oto Osenieks has become the clear best option at PF, although if he's ever the trigger man on a pick-and-roll again (which he was once last night, with predictable results) the entire team should be immediately benched for allowing that to happen.
9. Maybe the weirdest part of all this, is I never worried. Really. Usually a double digit second half lead has me wondering just how the Gophers are going to screw everything up. Usually an offense that's humming a long beautifully has me waiting for the six minute scoreless stretch that is bound to come up. And yeah I know that happened against Michigan and against Michigan State, but yesterday had a different feel. This team is fun to watch and they're confident, and they just seem to know what they're doing. Maybe that's faint praise, but watching this team is night and day from last season.
10. As of right now, the Gophers would be in the "Should be in" category of a Bubble Watch. As it stands right now, the Gophers would be pretty comfortably in the NCAA Tournament. An RPI of 21 (per ESPN) with the #4 Strength of Schedule, 3 wins over Top 20 RPI teams, and zero losses outside the Top 100 is pretty much a slam dunk case. That is why this next stretch is so important - we've seen Gopher teams rack up impressive computer numbers early, but we haven't seen one take care of business down the stretch in quite some time. The Gophers will be favored in six of the next seven games (@Nebraska, Northwestern, @Purdue, Indiana, @Northwestern, Illinois) with only a game in Madison to break up a relatively comfortable swing. 5-2 in this stretch would basically guarantee an NCAA bid, while 4-3 would still have them in good shape since they close with Penn State at home. This Gopher team has a chance to give Gopher fans a comfortable Selection Sunday, but that's something many Gopher teams have had an opportunity to provide, hopefully this is the one that actually comes through.
Up next is Nebraska in Lincoln, which is actually a pretty tough game. I will try to have a preview up at some point before tip-off.
1. What kind of 5-9 guy takes the ball right at a 7-footer and scores (twice!)? What more can we say about DeAndre Mathieu at this point? Guy is incredible. Try to imagine a guy 15 inches taller than you with enough athletic ability to be a major college major sport athlete, then try to imagine doing literally anything with him trying to stop you, yet Honey Gopher took it right at Frank Kaminsky twice at the rim and scored. Add in his ballhandling, passing ability, the best mid range jumper on the team, and his defense and I'm not so sure we should be talking about Andre Hollins as the best player on this team. There just are no words left for Mathieu. I think I've written positively about him after every single game. It's incredible that he was late JuCo signee. He's just so good.
2. Please baby santa jesus let Andre Hollins be ok. Yes that was a great win without him, and it didn't have the feel of a "uh oh our best player is hurt everybody raise your game" kind of emotional win, just a straight out outplayed a good team win. That makes me think that even worst case scenario, which I think I have already mentally prepared myself for, the Gophers will at least be ok. That being said, obviously this team will be in much better shape for any kind of March run with Dre on the court so please please please let him be ok. The timing is a bit of a break (I probably shouldn't use this word) because they just went through the toughest part of the schedule and have a relatively easier stretch coming, not to mention only one game in the next nine days so hopefully the rest will help. He's getting an MRI today, so hope for some good news [EDIT: I just read that the MRI came back negative. Whew. Hopefully he can rest up and only miss a game or two].
3. It would be impossible to talk about this game without mentioning Mo Walker. Wow, I never saw that coming. With Elliot Eliason in early foul trouble and most ineffective, Walker absolutely dominated the paint. He fought for post up position and when he got the ball he attacked the rim, especially whenever he had a smaller player on him, and off the ball he was all over the offensive glass. We got a glimpse of this against Ohio State when he had that miracle 60 seconds or whatever, but he put a full game together against Wisconsin and it was glorious. I'm not quite ready to say he's arrived - his footwork is still only so so and he has a tendency to wait to long to actually go up for the shot - but he's at least on the bus and on the way. Do you realize he had the second most shot attempts on the team in that game? No idea where that aggressiveness has suddenly come from, but I'm a big fan.
4. Speaking of big men, Nigel Hayes is going to be a nightmare. As good as Walker was, I came away more impressed with Hayes than anyone else outside Honey Gopher last night. That's about as polished a post game as I can remember seeing in a freshman in quite some time, and he's already nailing the mid range jump shot, and since he's a Badger you know that will eventually evolve into a 3-point shot a la Jon Leuer and countless others. He needs some defensive work as most freshman do, and he'll eventually become more aggressive, but he's already got the offensive game to be a force. Hopefully Bo Ryan does that thing where he makes him fall in love with the three pointer and stay off the block. That would really be ideal for everyone other than the Badgers and Badger fans and screw them.
5. I could not be more impressed with this team's offense. The Gophers scored 1.40 points per possession and once again crushed it on two point shots, shooting 59%. I've talked before about how I love a creative offense, but Pitino has gone completely away from that and with the team buying in it's working. It's basically become pick and rolls with the goal dribble penetration, and picks in the lane to help the big guys established good position on the block. They have pretty much become an attack the rim type team and a more patient team, and I'm in favor. I love how against bad teams they spread the floor and shot a bunch of threes, to where I believe they were at about 40% of all attempts were three pointers. Now in Big Ten play that number is just 33%, 7th in the conference. The Gophers only took 7 three pointers last night, and seeing as how they aren't a great shooting team using that shot when it's there rather than making it a main offensive weapon seems like a good way to go.
6. Related, the defense was....ok. Not to great, allowed 1.17 points per possession, but considering Wisconsin's season number is 1.20 I suppose we'll take it. I actually had trouble figuring out what exactly the Gophers were running, and at one point I thought it might have been a match-up zone. The more I watched, the more I realized it was a simple man-to-man but with extreme sagging into the lane away from the ball. That's good as far as taking away dribble penetration, which has killed the Gophers, but you're playing with fire against a good three point shooting team with basically at least four shooters on the floor at all times. Luckily the defensive energy was high and the Gophers were able to close out effectively when needed and the rotations were solid. It helped that the Badgers missed a few open looks, but all in all a decent defensive performance against a very, very good offensive team.
7. Malik Smith is a really valuable player. He's just steady, a rare quality for a chucker and it might even remove him from chucker status altogether. Do you know he has the best turnover rate on the team and one of the better ones for a guard in the conference? Sure he takes some shots that really can only be described as "kind of dumb" and sure when he tries to drive the lane it can sometimes look like the way fourth graders drive the lane (although that was working for him last night) but he seems to be a calming influence, and kind of a leader out there which I really wasn't expecting. He's learned how to fit into an offense where he isn't the #1 option, and has really dialed back his three point attempts. He even tries on defense. I thought I'd like him for his chuckeration, but I just like him as an overall piece of the team instead.
8. Joey King simply has to be better in the post. He's just fine as a spot up shooter and fits the stretch four role Pitino loves well in that regard, but a couple of times against Wisconsin he found himself on the block guarded by Ben Brust or Josh Gasser and when he got the ball he was unable to score and did so horribly. It's actually an improvement that he didn't travel. This needs to be his #1 offseason project. For all his faults, Oto Osenieks has become the clear best option at PF, although if he's ever the trigger man on a pick-and-roll again (which he was once last night, with predictable results) the entire team should be immediately benched for allowing that to happen.
9. Maybe the weirdest part of all this, is I never worried. Really. Usually a double digit second half lead has me wondering just how the Gophers are going to screw everything up. Usually an offense that's humming a long beautifully has me waiting for the six minute scoreless stretch that is bound to come up. And yeah I know that happened against Michigan and against Michigan State, but yesterday had a different feel. This team is fun to watch and they're confident, and they just seem to know what they're doing. Maybe that's faint praise, but watching this team is night and day from last season.
10. As of right now, the Gophers would be in the "Should be in" category of a Bubble Watch. As it stands right now, the Gophers would be pretty comfortably in the NCAA Tournament. An RPI of 21 (per ESPN) with the #4 Strength of Schedule, 3 wins over Top 20 RPI teams, and zero losses outside the Top 100 is pretty much a slam dunk case. That is why this next stretch is so important - we've seen Gopher teams rack up impressive computer numbers early, but we haven't seen one take care of business down the stretch in quite some time. The Gophers will be favored in six of the next seven games (@Nebraska, Northwestern, @Purdue, Indiana, @Northwestern, Illinois) with only a game in Madison to break up a relatively comfortable swing. 5-2 in this stretch would basically guarantee an NCAA bid, while 4-3 would still have them in good shape since they close with Penn State at home. This Gopher team has a chance to give Gopher fans a comfortable Selection Sunday, but that's something many Gopher teams have had an opportunity to provide, hopefully this is the one that actually comes through.
Up next is Nebraska in Lincoln, which is actually a pretty tough game. I will try to have a preview up at some point before tip-off.
Monday, March 11, 2013
Tournament Season now Hits the Big Guys
Ok I missed the Monday tournaments. That's okay though, because I'm going to cover them today along with Tuesday's kick-offs which is when some of the big dogs come out to play. I know many of you were lost on Monday night, wondering about the MAC and the MEAC and for that I apologize, but like a beacon in the dark I am here to walk you through.
Lots of stuff happened this weekend, including Kentucky, Baylor, and Boise got the big wins they needed while Iowa State, Ole Miss, and Cincy avoided what would have been crushing losses. Belmont made there be one less bubble team by winning the autobid in the OVC (Davidson won the SoCon's autobid last night but they probably weren't getting an at-large in any case), and Oklahoma (probably still in), Colorado (probably still in), and Louisiana Tech (needs autobid now) picked up ugly losses along with the Gophers.
What does this all mean? Well, along with the pairings coming out and showing the Gophers taking on Illinois in the opening round of the Big Ten Tournament it means the Gophers are in no matter what. Illinois's RPI is 42, which means a loss is just fine and a win would be a very good win. With most projectionists putting the Gophers in the 8-10 range there's no way a good loss knocks them out. So congratulations?
Ideally the Gophers would beat Illinois and Indiana and jump up to a six seed to avoid facing a 1 or 2 in a quasi-home game situation, but to be honest I'm just hoping they don't embarrass themselves again. It's good to have goals. On to the tournaments!
MID-AMERICAN CONFERENCE
For most of the season Akron was a fringe-y bubble team. They had dominated the MAC, going 13-0 with just four out-of-conference losses (3 in overtime) marring an otherwise perfect record - losses to Oklahoma State, Detroit, and Creighton are acceptable, losing to Coastal Carolina is not. Unfortunately a non-conference slate then with only a win over Middle Tennessee and a whole slew of cupcakes kept them from serious at-large consideration, and a loss to Buffalo last Saturday (RPI #226), the suspension of starting point guard and leading assist man Alex Abreu for possession of five pounds of pot, and a follow up loss to Kent State (RPI #146) have the Zips not only on the outside looking in of an at-large bid, but no longer the favorite in this tournament.
FAVORITE: Ohio. With Akron's issues with Smokey the Bobcats, who despite finishing out MAC play at 14-2 would have to describe this season as disappointing. This is an exciting team with a kick-ass point guard in D.J. Cooper (and the money he took) who will look for answers but that ain't fun so he'll get in the pit and try to love someone. Seriously though this is basically the same team who beat Georgetown in the tournament two years ago and made the Sweet 16 last season, they just whiffed on every opportunity to get a good win and had a super shitty schedule, thus win or in. Dangerous team. I hope they win.
SLEEPER: Eastern Michigan. Kent State probably has a better chance of winning but I wouldn't really consider them a sleeper the way EMU is. They 7 seed, the Eagles interest me because they are the top MAC team in 3-point defense, shot blocking, and stealing the ball. They're a pretty dynamic defensive team so you never know. They're also horrific offensively so you kind of do.
W's PICK: Ohio. Bawitdaba da bang a dang diggy diggy diggy said the boogy said up jump the boogy.
MID-EASTERN ATLANTIC CONFERENCE
Let's just get this out of the way: the MEAC is terrible, and they're terrible every year. Outside of the SWAC there's no other conference more guaranteed to end up in the play-in game. On one of the old college basketball games on playstation I used to have you had an option to to start from a bottom of the barrel program and try to work your way up by winning enough games - of the 10 options at least five of them were MEAC schools and it might have been more. That being said, of the six #15 seeds to knock off a #2 in round 1 two of them (Coppin State and Norfolk State) were MEAC schools. So I guess that's something.
FAVORITE: Norfolk State. Despite losing their top two scorers from last year's Missouri beating squad, the Spartans crushed the MEAC going 16-0. For some reason I now have a very uneasy feeling that if Tubby is let go by the Gophers Norfolk's State guy is going to come up far too often for my tastes.
SLEEPER: North Carolina Central. Interesting that Norfolk went 16-0, UNCC went 15-1, and they never played each other. They also don't have a single win between the two that remotely resembles a quality victory, but that's far less surprising. UNCC could be tricky because they are the top ranked defense in the conference in almost every single advanced metric. Of the eight main ones the Eagles (what's with all the Eagles, man?) rank 1st in six of them. Seems relevant.
W's PICK: Norfolk State. I've spent too much time on this conference as is, so I'll just take the team that's been there before and has the #1 seed. Why complicate things?
WESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE
If you remember when I wrote about the Sun Belt (this would make you kind of a weirdo) I said I was rooting so hard for Middle Tennessee because I wasn't sure they'd get an at-large if they lost and I really wanted to see them in the tournament (they lost in the semis and it's looking dicey). This is relevant because before last week Louisiana Tech looked a lot like Middle Tennessee but less fancy. They were 16-0 in the conference and 26-3 overall, and even if the computer numbers weren't in their favor they were going to be tough to ignore if they ran the table and then fell in the WAC Tournament Final. Luckily for the seeding committee they decided to go in the tank and got crushed by both New Mexico State (by 18) and Denver (by 24) and that is that.
FAVORITE: Denver. Although La Tech retained the #1 seed despite that late swoon, Vegas recognizes them for the pretender they were and installed Denver as the favorite. With good reason, considering the Pioneers rank tops in the conference in both offensive and defensive efficiency. It could all be fraudulent since Denver is another team that fits the Wisconsin/Virginia mold, but they're an interesting team who would absolutely have a chance to bore a team into a loss if they make the NCAAs.
SLEEPER: Utah State. I'm a huge fan of the Aggies, as you would know if you paid more attention to me you asshole, and this is a bit of an off year for them since they usually dominate these WAC dorks. You can't really count out a Stew Morrill led USU team, can you? Other than this year, I mean.
W's PICK: Louisiana Tech. Yes, the Bulldogs only played one non-shitty team in non-conference and lost to Texas A&M by 12. Yes, they somehow lost to McNeese State and Northwestern State. Yes, when they had a bye mid-week late in the season they scheduled Central Baptist College and won by 70 rather than having a decent team on the docket. Maybe, I'm starting to rethink this pick but it's too late to go back now.
BIG EAST CONFERENCE
And here we go. Big time conferences get rolling starting with the old Big East in it's last hurrah. Plenty still to play for, as Georgetown has as shot at a #1 while Louisville could possibly get it as well depending on what happens around the country. Syracuse is looking to find whatever it seems to have lost and Marquette wants to show it's more than just a home court bully, while both Villanova and Cincinnati are looking to shore up their at-large bids.
FAVORITE: Georgetown. The Hoyas, Louisville, and Marquette tied a top the conference at 14-4 with G-Town getting the favorable draw thanks to tie-breakers. They should also be considered the favorite because they are also coming in hot. The Hoya defense is coming on strong (the last team to score 70+ in non-overtime against the Hoyas was Pitt on January 8th) and Otto Porter is starting to give off a big John Wallace type vibe where I can see him putting the team's offense on his back and the Hoyas riding the defense deep into the tourney. I'm having a hell of a time trying to convince myself not to put them in the Final Four.
SLEEPER: Providence. They're a bit of a deep sleeper what with the 9 seed and all, but with so many good teams to find a true sleeper can be a little bit tougher in a conference like this. The Friars boast the league's leading scorer in Bryce Cotton and after a rough start to the season that included losses to Penn State, Brown, and DePaul they've started to really come together. Providence has won seven of its last nine with the only losses to Syracuse and UCONN on the road. Winning four games is probably a bit much but, you know, it's happened before.
W's PICK: Louisville. The number one defensive team in the country who both causes a ton of turnovers and holds opponents to terrible shooting percentages. Their record this year is 26-5, and the five losses are to potential number 1 seed Duke by 5 (neutral site), by 2 to Syracuse when they were still good, by 9 at Villanova when the Wildcats were on that tear where they also beat Cuse, at potential #1 seed Georgetown by 2, and at Notre Dame in five Overtimes. There may be more exciting teams and more upside-y teams, but the absolute safest bet, regardless of 1 or 2 seed, to get to the Final Four this year is the Cardinals.
MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERENCE
The conference that has risen the most in national rankings over the last few years, the MWC actually ranks third at kenpom behind the Big Ten and Big East. As good as it is, however, there's not really much to play for here. New Mexico, UNLV, Colorado State, and San Diego State are already locked in, and Boise State, by way of wins over SDSU and CSU in the last week and a half is probably in as well, and with an opening round match-up against the Aztecs again they can't hurt themselves.
FAVORITE: New Mexico. Believe it or not this a damn good league, and the Lobos going 13-3 in league play is damn impressive. There are nine teams in this league and five of them rank in the top 50 (kenpom) with two more in the top 100. The Lobos not only rolled the league, but also picked up wins over Davidson, UCONN, Valpo, and Cincy this year. You're going to be tempted to underrate New Mexico when you fill out your bracket, but I'd disrecommend that.
SLEEPER: Air Force. It's tough to find a sleeper in a league where the top 5 teams are awesome and the bottom two suck (well, Wyoming has sucked after a great start after kicking leading scorer Luke Martinez off the team for something as innocent as getting a 15-yard running start before kicking an unconscious person in the head in a bar fight), but Air Force fits the bill well enough. They play in the Wisconsin/Virginia style of slow but efficient play and that can always fuck people up and they've beaten four out of the five top teams in the MWC this year. They've also been terrible outside Colorado Springs, and the tournament is not in Colorado Springs, so they're probably hosed.
W's PICK: UNLV. The tournament is not in Colorado Springs but it is in Las Vegas, and more specifically at the Thomas & Mack Center which just so happens to be the Runnin' Rebels' home gym. In a league that tightly packed at the top home court could make all the difference. Plus I had this picture.
Lots of stuff happened this weekend, including Kentucky, Baylor, and Boise got the big wins they needed while Iowa State, Ole Miss, and Cincy avoided what would have been crushing losses. Belmont made there be one less bubble team by winning the autobid in the OVC (Davidson won the SoCon's autobid last night but they probably weren't getting an at-large in any case), and Oklahoma (probably still in), Colorado (probably still in), and Louisiana Tech (needs autobid now) picked up ugly losses along with the Gophers.
What does this all mean? Well, along with the pairings coming out and showing the Gophers taking on Illinois in the opening round of the Big Ten Tournament it means the Gophers are in no matter what. Illinois's RPI is 42, which means a loss is just fine and a win would be a very good win. With most projectionists putting the Gophers in the 8-10 range there's no way a good loss knocks them out. So congratulations?
Ideally the Gophers would beat Illinois and Indiana and jump up to a six seed to avoid facing a 1 or 2 in a quasi-home game situation, but to be honest I'm just hoping they don't embarrass themselves again. It's good to have goals. On to the tournaments!
MID-AMERICAN CONFERENCE
For most of the season Akron was a fringe-y bubble team. They had dominated the MAC, going 13-0 with just four out-of-conference losses (3 in overtime) marring an otherwise perfect record - losses to Oklahoma State, Detroit, and Creighton are acceptable, losing to Coastal Carolina is not. Unfortunately a non-conference slate then with only a win over Middle Tennessee and a whole slew of cupcakes kept them from serious at-large consideration, and a loss to Buffalo last Saturday (RPI #226), the suspension of starting point guard and leading assist man Alex Abreu for possession of five pounds of pot, and a follow up loss to Kent State (RPI #146) have the Zips not only on the outside looking in of an at-large bid, but no longer the favorite in this tournament.
FAVORITE: Ohio. With Akron's issues with Smokey the Bobcats, who despite finishing out MAC play at 14-2 would have to describe this season as disappointing. This is an exciting team with a kick-ass point guard in D.J. Cooper (and the money he took) who will look for answers but that ain't fun so he'll get in the pit and try to love someone. Seriously though this is basically the same team who beat Georgetown in the tournament two years ago and made the Sweet 16 last season, they just whiffed on every opportunity to get a good win and had a super shitty schedule, thus win or in. Dangerous team. I hope they win.
SLEEPER: Eastern Michigan. Kent State probably has a better chance of winning but I wouldn't really consider them a sleeper the way EMU is. They 7 seed, the Eagles interest me because they are the top MAC team in 3-point defense, shot blocking, and stealing the ball. They're a pretty dynamic defensive team so you never know. They're also horrific offensively so you kind of do.
W's PICK: Ohio. Bawitdaba da bang a dang diggy diggy diggy said the boogy said up jump the boogy.
MID-EASTERN ATLANTIC CONFERENCE
Let's just get this out of the way: the MEAC is terrible, and they're terrible every year. Outside of the SWAC there's no other conference more guaranteed to end up in the play-in game. On one of the old college basketball games on playstation I used to have you had an option to to start from a bottom of the barrel program and try to work your way up by winning enough games - of the 10 options at least five of them were MEAC schools and it might have been more. That being said, of the six #15 seeds to knock off a #2 in round 1 two of them (Coppin State and Norfolk State) were MEAC schools. So I guess that's something.
FAVORITE: Norfolk State. Despite losing their top two scorers from last year's Missouri beating squad, the Spartans crushed the MEAC going 16-0. For some reason I now have a very uneasy feeling that if Tubby is let go by the Gophers Norfolk's State guy is going to come up far too often for my tastes.
SLEEPER: North Carolina Central. Interesting that Norfolk went 16-0, UNCC went 15-1, and they never played each other. They also don't have a single win between the two that remotely resembles a quality victory, but that's far less surprising. UNCC could be tricky because they are the top ranked defense in the conference in almost every single advanced metric. Of the eight main ones the Eagles (what's with all the Eagles, man?) rank 1st in six of them. Seems relevant.
W's PICK: Norfolk State. I've spent too much time on this conference as is, so I'll just take the team that's been there before and has the #1 seed. Why complicate things?
WESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE
If you remember when I wrote about the Sun Belt (this would make you kind of a weirdo) I said I was rooting so hard for Middle Tennessee because I wasn't sure they'd get an at-large if they lost and I really wanted to see them in the tournament (they lost in the semis and it's looking dicey). This is relevant because before last week Louisiana Tech looked a lot like Middle Tennessee but less fancy. They were 16-0 in the conference and 26-3 overall, and even if the computer numbers weren't in their favor they were going to be tough to ignore if they ran the table and then fell in the WAC Tournament Final. Luckily for the seeding committee they decided to go in the tank and got crushed by both New Mexico State (by 18) and Denver (by 24) and that is that.
FAVORITE: Denver. Although La Tech retained the #1 seed despite that late swoon, Vegas recognizes them for the pretender they were and installed Denver as the favorite. With good reason, considering the Pioneers rank tops in the conference in both offensive and defensive efficiency. It could all be fraudulent since Denver is another team that fits the Wisconsin/Virginia mold, but they're an interesting team who would absolutely have a chance to bore a team into a loss if they make the NCAAs.
SLEEPER: Utah State. I'm a huge fan of the Aggies, as you would know if you paid more attention to me you asshole, and this is a bit of an off year for them since they usually dominate these WAC dorks. You can't really count out a Stew Morrill led USU team, can you? Other than this year, I mean.
W's PICK: Louisiana Tech. Yes, the Bulldogs only played one non-shitty team in non-conference and lost to Texas A&M by 12. Yes, they somehow lost to McNeese State and Northwestern State. Yes, when they had a bye mid-week late in the season they scheduled Central Baptist College and won by 70 rather than having a decent team on the docket. Maybe, I'm starting to rethink this pick but it's too late to go back now.
BIG EAST CONFERENCE
And here we go. Big time conferences get rolling starting with the old Big East in it's last hurrah. Plenty still to play for, as Georgetown has as shot at a #1 while Louisville could possibly get it as well depending on what happens around the country. Syracuse is looking to find whatever it seems to have lost and Marquette wants to show it's more than just a home court bully, while both Villanova and Cincinnati are looking to shore up their at-large bids.
FAVORITE: Georgetown. The Hoyas, Louisville, and Marquette tied a top the conference at 14-4 with G-Town getting the favorable draw thanks to tie-breakers. They should also be considered the favorite because they are also coming in hot. The Hoya defense is coming on strong (the last team to score 70+ in non-overtime against the Hoyas was Pitt on January 8th) and Otto Porter is starting to give off a big John Wallace type vibe where I can see him putting the team's offense on his back and the Hoyas riding the defense deep into the tourney. I'm having a hell of a time trying to convince myself not to put them in the Final Four.
SLEEPER: Providence. They're a bit of a deep sleeper what with the 9 seed and all, but with so many good teams to find a true sleeper can be a little bit tougher in a conference like this. The Friars boast the league's leading scorer in Bryce Cotton and after a rough start to the season that included losses to Penn State, Brown, and DePaul they've started to really come together. Providence has won seven of its last nine with the only losses to Syracuse and UCONN on the road. Winning four games is probably a bit much but, you know, it's happened before.
W's PICK: Louisville. The number one defensive team in the country who both causes a ton of turnovers and holds opponents to terrible shooting percentages. Their record this year is 26-5, and the five losses are to potential number 1 seed Duke by 5 (neutral site), by 2 to Syracuse when they were still good, by 9 at Villanova when the Wildcats were on that tear where they also beat Cuse, at potential #1 seed Georgetown by 2, and at Notre Dame in five Overtimes. There may be more exciting teams and more upside-y teams, but the absolute safest bet, regardless of 1 or 2 seed, to get to the Final Four this year is the Cardinals.
MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERENCE
The conference that has risen the most in national rankings over the last few years, the MWC actually ranks third at kenpom behind the Big Ten and Big East. As good as it is, however, there's not really much to play for here. New Mexico, UNLV, Colorado State, and San Diego State are already locked in, and Boise State, by way of wins over SDSU and CSU in the last week and a half is probably in as well, and with an opening round match-up against the Aztecs again they can't hurt themselves.
FAVORITE: New Mexico. Believe it or not this a damn good league, and the Lobos going 13-3 in league play is damn impressive. There are nine teams in this league and five of them rank in the top 50 (kenpom) with two more in the top 100. The Lobos not only rolled the league, but also picked up wins over Davidson, UCONN, Valpo, and Cincy this year. You're going to be tempted to underrate New Mexico when you fill out your bracket, but I'd disrecommend that.
SLEEPER: Air Force. It's tough to find a sleeper in a league where the top 5 teams are awesome and the bottom two suck (well, Wyoming has sucked after a great start after kicking leading scorer Luke Martinez off the team for something as innocent as getting a 15-yard running start before kicking an unconscious person in the head in a bar fight), but Air Force fits the bill well enough. They play in the Wisconsin/Virginia style of slow but efficient play and that can always fuck people up and they've beaten four out of the five top teams in the MWC this year. They've also been terrible outside Colorado Springs, and the tournament is not in Colorado Springs, so they're probably hosed.
W's PICK: UNLV. The tournament is not in Colorado Springs but it is in Las Vegas, and more specifically at the Thomas & Mack Center which just so happens to be the Runnin' Rebels' home gym. In a league that tightly packed at the top home court could make all the difference. Plus I had this picture.
Wednesday, March 6, 2013
Sick of the Gophers
First of all, just let me say I have no idea what was going on with Tubby's substitution patterns tonight. I also don't know what is going on with the Hollinses, but they were inexplicably terrible tonight. This game was everything we saw against Northwestern, Iowa, Nebraska, and Illinois all over again and reminded me of how frustratingly bad this team can be. They're probably still in the NCAA Tournament but at this point barring a huge Big 10 Tournament run they'll be somewhere in the 7-10 range which means even if they somehow won their first round game they'll just get smoked in round 2. Just. I don't know. I should write more but I'm sick and after watching that game I really don't feel like it. So here's what I wrote before the game, previews and stuff.
MISSOURI VALLEY CONFERENCE
Oddly this is the only tournament kicking off Thursday, particularly since I remember Thursday always used to be the biggest day of the week. It seems a lot of the conferences have switched to Friday or Saturday starts (particularly the SoCon and the Colonial) in order to maximize their attendance and revenue which makes total sense for them but sucks for me so I hate it. Anyway, there's no real intrigue here because Wichita and Creighton are probably both in even if they get dropped in the first round, and nobody else has a chance at an at-large (Indiana State was borderline for a while, but dropped 5 of 6 to close out the season). Even so there should be some good basketball in this one.
FAVORITE: Creighton. At the beginning of the year Creighton was the big swinging dick of the MVC, then they hit a bit of a rough patch and all of a sudden Wichita was the bee knees, then the Blue Jays gave the Shockers a nice beatdown to not only reassert dominance, but also to grab the #1 seed in the tourney. By the way I still haven't figured out how good Doug McDermott really is and I have no idea what I'm going to do with Creighton when the brackets come out - which I guess is the same as every other team because I'm kind of an idiot.
SLEEPER: Illinois State. The Redbirds were supposed to be a MVC sleeper this year, and appeared to be good enough to make my top 68 teams preview at #52, but they struggled a smidge in conference play, dropping their first six MVC games. They finished out at 8-4 and with Jackie Carmichael have the guy who'd be a shoo-in for conference player-of-the-year if Doug McDermott didn't exist, and he's not even the leading scorer on his own team.
W's PICK: Northern Iowa. The MVC is loaded this year (9th best conference) and with the top two squads already assured of NCAA bids you can be the rest of the teams will be in crazy survival mode and that's when weird things happen. So why not take the team with the experienced coach (Ben Jacobson) and senior leadership (3 senior starters) who finished hot (won 7 of their final 8 conference games which included wins over Wichita, Creighton, and Illinois State)? Plus weird shit like this always seems to happen to annoying teams like Northern Iowa.
In meaningful games for Thursday night, we have Kentucky (@ Georgia) and Virginia (@ Florida State) both face pretty much must win road games to keep their bid chances alive, while Butler is on the road as well at UMass and even though they seem pretty solidly in at this point they'd be much better off not losing and giving the committee a reason to reconsider. The best game of the night (bubble wise) is Oregon @ Colorado in the Pac-12. Both are in solid shape, but the winner of this one pretty much punches their ticket, while the other will need to pick up another win elsewhere. Of course the real best game of the night is Wisconsin @ Michigan State, which will matter for seedings and all that jazz and should be entertaining as long as Wisconsin doesn't control pace and gets killed. Pretty slow for a Thursday, but there are games all day starting at 11am with the last one tipping off at 10:30pm, so who am I to complain? I love March.
MISSOURI VALLEY CONFERENCE
Oddly this is the only tournament kicking off Thursday, particularly since I remember Thursday always used to be the biggest day of the week. It seems a lot of the conferences have switched to Friday or Saturday starts (particularly the SoCon and the Colonial) in order to maximize their attendance and revenue which makes total sense for them but sucks for me so I hate it. Anyway, there's no real intrigue here because Wichita and Creighton are probably both in even if they get dropped in the first round, and nobody else has a chance at an at-large (Indiana State was borderline for a while, but dropped 5 of 6 to close out the season). Even so there should be some good basketball in this one.
FAVORITE: Creighton. At the beginning of the year Creighton was the big swinging dick of the MVC, then they hit a bit of a rough patch and all of a sudden Wichita was the bee knees, then the Blue Jays gave the Shockers a nice beatdown to not only reassert dominance, but also to grab the #1 seed in the tourney. By the way I still haven't figured out how good Doug McDermott really is and I have no idea what I'm going to do with Creighton when the brackets come out - which I guess is the same as every other team because I'm kind of an idiot.
SLEEPER: Illinois State. The Redbirds were supposed to be a MVC sleeper this year, and appeared to be good enough to make my top 68 teams preview at #52, but they struggled a smidge in conference play, dropping their first six MVC games. They finished out at 8-4 and with Jackie Carmichael have the guy who'd be a shoo-in for conference player-of-the-year if Doug McDermott didn't exist, and he's not even the leading scorer on his own team.
W's PICK: Northern Iowa. The MVC is loaded this year (9th best conference) and with the top two squads already assured of NCAA bids you can be the rest of the teams will be in crazy survival mode and that's when weird things happen. So why not take the team with the experienced coach (Ben Jacobson) and senior leadership (3 senior starters) who finished hot (won 7 of their final 8 conference games which included wins over Wichita, Creighton, and Illinois State)? Plus weird shit like this always seems to happen to annoying teams like Northern Iowa.
In meaningful games for Thursday night, we have Kentucky (@ Georgia) and Virginia (@ Florida State) both face pretty much must win road games to keep their bid chances alive, while Butler is on the road as well at UMass and even though they seem pretty solidly in at this point they'd be much better off not losing and giving the committee a reason to reconsider. The best game of the night (bubble wise) is Oregon @ Colorado in the Pac-12. Both are in solid shape, but the winner of this one pretty much punches their ticket, while the other will need to pick up another win elsewhere. Of course the real best game of the night is Wisconsin @ Michigan State, which will matter for seedings and all that jazz and should be entertaining as long as Wisconsin doesn't control pace and gets killed. Pretty slow for a Thursday, but there are games all day starting at 11am with the last one tipping off at 10:30pm, so who am I to complain? I love March.
Tuesday, March 5, 2013
Gophers vs. Huskers Preview + Wednesday Tournaments
The Gophers play Nebraska in Lincoln, and although some of the pressure has been alleviated by the wins over Indiana and Penn State, which locked the Gophers into the NCAA Tournament, they can still close strong and get maybe as high as a 3 seed, or crash and end up around a 10. My hope is they get to a six to avoid the 1-2 seed in the second round if they advance, and I think two more wins would do it - whether the last two regular season games or one of them and a B10 tournament win - so this is still a pretty important game.
Since the last time the Gophers played Nebraska the Huskers have gone 2-5 with the two wins home games vs. Iowa and Penn State. In that time they've also played Ohio State and Michigan State at home, losing both by less than ten (7 and 9) so they're not exactly a juggernaut, but road games in the Big 10 are never easy even if Nebraska doesn't really have any impressive home upsets to point to.
Overall Nebraska is a pretty terrible team. They don't do anything particularly well other than take care of the basketball, are thoroughly mediocre on defense, and area terrible shooting team. You remember when the Gophers smoked them at Williams, right? The talent disparity between the two teams is glaring, and the only thing that kept Nebraska at all in the game (and the Gophers won by 19) was Ray Gallegos going coo-coo from three and scoring 30 points. Could that happen again but like, way more dramatic? I suppose, but Gallegos has only scored more than 11 points once in the seven games since then, everyone else on Nebraska sucks, and the Gophers look like they've finally figured things out again. If you're going to have a lull like the Gophers did, have it in the middle of the season, not the end. I choose to believe they're back.
Minnesota 70, Nebraska 53
Now on to Wednesday's tournaments.
ATLANTIC SUN
Another pretty terrible conference like the Big South, but the one thing the A-Sun has going for it is two dominant teams in Mercer and Florida Gulf Coast who are both in the top two in the conference in both offensive and defensive efficiency. When you're dealing with a low major you can forget about having a balanced, deep league and you just have to hope you have a squad or two that is good enough to grab some name recognition by beating, or at least scaring, its first round NCAA foe. Both these teams have a least a chance.
FAVORITE: Mercer. The Bears take the one seed by a game over FGC, but I'm not sure they're the better team. The Bears have a nice non-conference win over Florida State, but FGC beat Miami. Both come in hot with Mercer finishing out at 9-1 and the Eagles at 9-2, and the Eagles won their last meeting last week by 3. This is one of those conference tournaments where if the favorites win out and Mercer meets FGC in the Final it will be worth your time to watch. Probably.
SLEEPER: North Florida. Well, probably not, but they do have Will Wilson, who you may remember as the point guard who never ever ever scores. You will be happy to know that Wilson, who played 31.5 minutes per game this year, upped his scoring average to 3.6 per game, a career high, while upping his assists to 6.1 per game. His total points this season were 112, nearly doubling his career point total which stood at 121 coming into the year. And he did, in fact, finally break double figures in a game this year notching 13 against Jacksonville so congratulations. Will Wilson, we salute you.
W's PICK: Florida Gulf Coast. The Eagles are just more tested, having played four tournament teams this year (Miami, Duke, Iowa State, VCU) while Mercer has just New Mexico. Granted that all happened a long time ago and is pretty much irrelevant, but like I said, it's awfully tough to separate these teams.
PATRIOT LEAGUE
I know you're thinking whoopity-doo another terrible conference and you're right, but you're also sort of wrong too. This might be the best version of the Patriot League I can recall (although they're still ranked as just the 17th best conference by kenpom). Bucknell and Lehigh are top 100 teams with two others in the 100s and only Navy falling past #300. Might not sound like much, but it's a step in the right direction and you can see the difference finally allowing athletic scholarships can make.
FAVORITE: Bucknell. Unfortunately C.J. McCollum broke his foot in a game against VCU this winter (a game Lehigh lost by only four) so the Bison won the league crown and the #1 seed. That's not a slam on Bucknell, who are a very good team with wins over Purdue and LaSalle this season, it's just a bummer because most of the Lehigh team that beat Duke was back this year and McCollum is an amazing player. Even so, Bucknell's Mike Muscala is a stud as well who averaged a double-double while leading the conference in scoring and rebounding, and if the Bison get through they're absolutely a threat to steal a win in the tournament.
SLEEPER: Army. The Black Knights play at a pace considerably fast than anyone else in the Patriot and do so while shooting, and making, a ton of three pointers. That's the kind of team I like for a sleeper.
W's PICK: Bucknell. If McCollum returns from injury (even as of 3 days ago, the most recent article I could find, things are still up in the air) things get more interesting, but if he doesn't I expect Bucknell to run the table pretty easily.
OHIO VALLEY
Belmont moving in to the OVC was supposed to create a two-headed monster at the top of the conference with the Bruins and Murray State. The only problem was the Racers didn't hold up their end of the bargain, whiffing on their only real out of conference chance to get a big win against Colorado (and what a horrible schedule they put together) and going just 10-6 in conference. Belmont still has an outside chance at an at-large given good computer numbers and a 14-2 conference record but it's an outside shot at best and the OVC will most likely remain a one-bid league.
FAVORITE: Belmont. These guys have been relevant long enough that I can even tell you their two best players without looking it up - Ian Clark and Kerron Johnson - a pair of senior guards who have been this team's leaders forever. Their are three other upperclassmen starters as well and those five play the majority of the team's minutes and basically score all their points. They've been in the last two NCAA Tournaments but haven't broken through for a win yet. With that experience now could this be the year.
SLEEPER: Eastern Kentucky. Given Murray State's rough year and not even ranking in kenpom's Top 25 they might be a more appropriate sleeper than EKU - the team that finished with the second best record in the league and only team in the top 2 in both O and D efficiency in the OVC - but I'm pretty sure Murray is still the sexier pick since the media has bludgeoned us all over the head with them for years. The Colonels create a ton of turnovers but don't defend all that well, which is generally death to teams who play the Bruins. Still, they've probably got the best shot to knock them off.
W's PICK: Belmont. I feel like I'm picking a lot of favorites, but that's kind of how it works in these conferences. Also, to answer my earlier rhetorical question, no it's not the year. Belmont won't win an NCAA Tournament game again.
WEST COAST CONFERENCE
A pretty uninteresting conference tournament but in an interesting way. There are two possible NCAA teams here: Gonzaga (locked in, possible #1 seed) and St. Mary's (right on the bubble). What St. Mary's could really use is another quality win, but the only way to get one at this point in the WCC is to beat Gonzaga. However, because of their seeds, beating Gonzaga is only possible in the WCC Tournament Final, which would put the Gaels in automatically. So either St. Mary's wins their way in, or they've already done enough to get the invite. Uninteresting in an interesting way, which is what I said if you had been paying attention.
FAVORITE: Gonzaga. Although the WCC is far better than a lot of other conferences I have or will be previewing (ranking 10th) there might not be a more prohibitive favorite in any conference than Gonzaga. The Zags are in line for a possible #1 seed, are 16-0 in conference play, and rank as the #4 team in the country according to kenpom. Sure, St. Mary's (rank #19), BYU (#71), and Santa Clara (#87) are quality teams with their eyes on the upset, but Gonzaga has crushed all three of these teams this year.
SLEEPER: San Francisco. It's not easy to pick a sleeper here when the top four just beat up on each other and killed everyone else (between the four good teams only three of their losses came to other teams) so I'll go with the team that picked up one of those (over BYU) and has an interesting statistical profile. The Dons, who are coached by Rex Walters which feels relevant for some reason, hit 40.2% of their three pointers this year, good for 9th best in the nation. So that's something. Although the way the WCC sets things up it's almost guaranteed to be either Gonzaga or St. Mary's coming out of here.
W's PICK: St. Mary's. This isn't an indictment of Gonzaga, because I do think they're a Final Four contender who deserves a one seed, but St. Mary's is going to be playing as if their lives depend on it in this game - and their tournament lives very well might. I think they're flying under the radar a bit, especially since Gonzaga swept them, and I don't want to have to stop watching Matthew Dellavedova yet. If loving that floppy haired little muppet is wrong I don't want to be right.
NORTHEASTERN CONFERENCE
You want to talk about a conference only a mother could love, let's go with the NEC. They're consistently ranked in the bottom quartile for conference strength, and if you look at the list of teams I don't know that they've ever even been close in an NCAA Tournament game, much less won one. There are a handful of other conferences who can never rise out of the bottom of the barrel as a whole, but outside of the SWAC I can recall each one of those conferences at least being competitive with many of them actually winning games here and there. Not so the NEC. Where have you gone, Charles Jones?
FAVORITE: Robert Morris. The closest thing the NEC puts out as a power program, the Colonials have missed the NCAA Tournament each of the last two seasons despite winning at least 12 conference games each year and advancing to the NEC Tournament Championship game. Both years they lost to LIU-Brooklyn, which is once again a viable scenario this season. Also researching that led me to the box score that reminded me that Robert Morris took Villanova to overtime as a 15 seed three years ago which just goes to show that I don't know what the hell I'm talking about.
SLEEPER: Bryant. "Who?" is what your asking and I don't blame you. As far back as 2008 Bryant was still in D-II before starting to transition to Division I. Four terrible years later (20 total wins including 2 last year) here are the Bulldogs in their first season eligible for the NCAA Tournament and sitting at 12-6 in the conference (good for a number 2 seed). Cool story, bro.
W's PICK: Bryant. It's too good of a story, although if they do make it and it gets crammed down our throats like everything else ESPN latches on too I'm going to regret rooting for this to happen. The Bulldogs aren't just a novelty - they rank #1 in the NEC in offensive efficiency and have two 17+ ppg scorers who cover you on the perimeter and in the paint with three other 9+ point scorers. They probably play too crappy on the defensive side to threaten anybody in the NCAA Tournament but as far as the NEC goes? It's in play. Sorry Robert Morris, maybe fourth time is the charm?
As far as Tuesday's results, Arkansas - a pretty big longshot as it stood - got crushed by Missouri which should take them out of the running for an at-large. Southern Miss lost by just four to Marshall, but that pretty much kilt them as well. Notre Dame probably sealed it with a win over St. Johns, while Iowa kept the dream alive by beating Illinois (who is probably safe either way). In the big elimination game between Ole Miss and Alabama the Rebels took care of business, beating Bama by four in a game they basically controlled from the tip so they're still alive, while Memphis locked up their bid, if they hadn't already, by taking down UTEP on the road. Meanwhile Boise State looked every bit a tournament team at UNLV, but because they didn't get the win they remain an absolutely difficult read. Just looking at season results and eye test they seem legit, but are about as hard on the bubble as possible. Interesting team to watch.
Wednesday's action features a nice mix of teams who really could use a big win - Villanova (vs. Georgetown), Iowa State (vs. Oklahoma State), Maryland (vs. UNC) - can lock up a bid with a win - Oklahoma (@ WVU), Cal (vs. Stanford), San Diego State (vs. Air Force), Minnesota (@ Nebraska) - and team's on shaky ground who can't afford a loss to an inferior opponent - Temple (@ Fordham), LaSalle (vs. G. Washington), and VCU (vs. Richmond). In other words, there's a ton going on that could shift a whole bunch of teams a whole bunch of lines. Should be fun night. I'll spend it watching the Gophers instead.
Since the last time the Gophers played Nebraska the Huskers have gone 2-5 with the two wins home games vs. Iowa and Penn State. In that time they've also played Ohio State and Michigan State at home, losing both by less than ten (7 and 9) so they're not exactly a juggernaut, but road games in the Big 10 are never easy even if Nebraska doesn't really have any impressive home upsets to point to.
Overall Nebraska is a pretty terrible team. They don't do anything particularly well other than take care of the basketball, are thoroughly mediocre on defense, and area terrible shooting team. You remember when the Gophers smoked them at Williams, right? The talent disparity between the two teams is glaring, and the only thing that kept Nebraska at all in the game (and the Gophers won by 19) was Ray Gallegos going coo-coo from three and scoring 30 points. Could that happen again but like, way more dramatic? I suppose, but Gallegos has only scored more than 11 points once in the seven games since then, everyone else on Nebraska sucks, and the Gophers look like they've finally figured things out again. If you're going to have a lull like the Gophers did, have it in the middle of the season, not the end. I choose to believe they're back.
Minnesota 70, Nebraska 53
Now on to Wednesday's tournaments.
ATLANTIC SUN
Another pretty terrible conference like the Big South, but the one thing the A-Sun has going for it is two dominant teams in Mercer and Florida Gulf Coast who are both in the top two in the conference in both offensive and defensive efficiency. When you're dealing with a low major you can forget about having a balanced, deep league and you just have to hope you have a squad or two that is good enough to grab some name recognition by beating, or at least scaring, its first round NCAA foe. Both these teams have a least a chance.
FAVORITE: Mercer. The Bears take the one seed by a game over FGC, but I'm not sure they're the better team. The Bears have a nice non-conference win over Florida State, but FGC beat Miami. Both come in hot with Mercer finishing out at 9-1 and the Eagles at 9-2, and the Eagles won their last meeting last week by 3. This is one of those conference tournaments where if the favorites win out and Mercer meets FGC in the Final it will be worth your time to watch. Probably.
SLEEPER: North Florida. Well, probably not, but they do have Will Wilson, who you may remember as the point guard who never ever ever scores. You will be happy to know that Wilson, who played 31.5 minutes per game this year, upped his scoring average to 3.6 per game, a career high, while upping his assists to 6.1 per game. His total points this season were 112, nearly doubling his career point total which stood at 121 coming into the year. And he did, in fact, finally break double figures in a game this year notching 13 against Jacksonville so congratulations. Will Wilson, we salute you.
W's PICK: Florida Gulf Coast. The Eagles are just more tested, having played four tournament teams this year (Miami, Duke, Iowa State, VCU) while Mercer has just New Mexico. Granted that all happened a long time ago and is pretty much irrelevant, but like I said, it's awfully tough to separate these teams.
PATRIOT LEAGUE
I know you're thinking whoopity-doo another terrible conference and you're right, but you're also sort of wrong too. This might be the best version of the Patriot League I can recall (although they're still ranked as just the 17th best conference by kenpom). Bucknell and Lehigh are top 100 teams with two others in the 100s and only Navy falling past #300. Might not sound like much, but it's a step in the right direction and you can see the difference finally allowing athletic scholarships can make.
FAVORITE: Bucknell. Unfortunately C.J. McCollum broke his foot in a game against VCU this winter (a game Lehigh lost by only four) so the Bison won the league crown and the #1 seed. That's not a slam on Bucknell, who are a very good team with wins over Purdue and LaSalle this season, it's just a bummer because most of the Lehigh team that beat Duke was back this year and McCollum is an amazing player. Even so, Bucknell's Mike Muscala is a stud as well who averaged a double-double while leading the conference in scoring and rebounding, and if the Bison get through they're absolutely a threat to steal a win in the tournament.
SLEEPER: Army. The Black Knights play at a pace considerably fast than anyone else in the Patriot and do so while shooting, and making, a ton of three pointers. That's the kind of team I like for a sleeper.
W's PICK: Bucknell. If McCollum returns from injury (even as of 3 days ago, the most recent article I could find, things are still up in the air) things get more interesting, but if he doesn't I expect Bucknell to run the table pretty easily.
OHIO VALLEY
Belmont moving in to the OVC was supposed to create a two-headed monster at the top of the conference with the Bruins and Murray State. The only problem was the Racers didn't hold up their end of the bargain, whiffing on their only real out of conference chance to get a big win against Colorado (and what a horrible schedule they put together) and going just 10-6 in conference. Belmont still has an outside chance at an at-large given good computer numbers and a 14-2 conference record but it's an outside shot at best and the OVC will most likely remain a one-bid league.
FAVORITE: Belmont. These guys have been relevant long enough that I can even tell you their two best players without looking it up - Ian Clark and Kerron Johnson - a pair of senior guards who have been this team's leaders forever. Their are three other upperclassmen starters as well and those five play the majority of the team's minutes and basically score all their points. They've been in the last two NCAA Tournaments but haven't broken through for a win yet. With that experience now could this be the year.
SLEEPER: Eastern Kentucky. Given Murray State's rough year and not even ranking in kenpom's Top 25 they might be a more appropriate sleeper than EKU - the team that finished with the second best record in the league and only team in the top 2 in both O and D efficiency in the OVC - but I'm pretty sure Murray is still the sexier pick since the media has bludgeoned us all over the head with them for years. The Colonels create a ton of turnovers but don't defend all that well, which is generally death to teams who play the Bruins. Still, they've probably got the best shot to knock them off.
W's PICK: Belmont. I feel like I'm picking a lot of favorites, but that's kind of how it works in these conferences. Also, to answer my earlier rhetorical question, no it's not the year. Belmont won't win an NCAA Tournament game again.
WEST COAST CONFERENCE
A pretty uninteresting conference tournament but in an interesting way. There are two possible NCAA teams here: Gonzaga (locked in, possible #1 seed) and St. Mary's (right on the bubble). What St. Mary's could really use is another quality win, but the only way to get one at this point in the WCC is to beat Gonzaga. However, because of their seeds, beating Gonzaga is only possible in the WCC Tournament Final, which would put the Gaels in automatically. So either St. Mary's wins their way in, or they've already done enough to get the invite. Uninteresting in an interesting way, which is what I said if you had been paying attention.
FAVORITE: Gonzaga. Although the WCC is far better than a lot of other conferences I have or will be previewing (ranking 10th) there might not be a more prohibitive favorite in any conference than Gonzaga. The Zags are in line for a possible #1 seed, are 16-0 in conference play, and rank as the #4 team in the country according to kenpom. Sure, St. Mary's (rank #19), BYU (#71), and Santa Clara (#87) are quality teams with their eyes on the upset, but Gonzaga has crushed all three of these teams this year.
SLEEPER: San Francisco. It's not easy to pick a sleeper here when the top four just beat up on each other and killed everyone else (between the four good teams only three of their losses came to other teams) so I'll go with the team that picked up one of those (over BYU) and has an interesting statistical profile. The Dons, who are coached by Rex Walters which feels relevant for some reason, hit 40.2% of their three pointers this year, good for 9th best in the nation. So that's something. Although the way the WCC sets things up it's almost guaranteed to be either Gonzaga or St. Mary's coming out of here.
W's PICK: St. Mary's. This isn't an indictment of Gonzaga, because I do think they're a Final Four contender who deserves a one seed, but St. Mary's is going to be playing as if their lives depend on it in this game - and their tournament lives very well might. I think they're flying under the radar a bit, especially since Gonzaga swept them, and I don't want to have to stop watching Matthew Dellavedova yet. If loving that floppy haired little muppet is wrong I don't want to be right.
NORTHEASTERN CONFERENCE
You want to talk about a conference only a mother could love, let's go with the NEC. They're consistently ranked in the bottom quartile for conference strength, and if you look at the list of teams I don't know that they've ever even been close in an NCAA Tournament game, much less won one. There are a handful of other conferences who can never rise out of the bottom of the barrel as a whole, but outside of the SWAC I can recall each one of those conferences at least being competitive with many of them actually winning games here and there. Not so the NEC. Where have you gone, Charles Jones?
FAVORITE: Robert Morris. The closest thing the NEC puts out as a power program, the Colonials have missed the NCAA Tournament each of the last two seasons despite winning at least 12 conference games each year and advancing to the NEC Tournament Championship game. Both years they lost to LIU-Brooklyn, which is once again a viable scenario this season. Also researching that led me to the box score that reminded me that Robert Morris took Villanova to overtime as a 15 seed three years ago which just goes to show that I don't know what the hell I'm talking about.
SLEEPER: Bryant. "Who?" is what your asking and I don't blame you. As far back as 2008 Bryant was still in D-II before starting to transition to Division I. Four terrible years later (20 total wins including 2 last year) here are the Bulldogs in their first season eligible for the NCAA Tournament and sitting at 12-6 in the conference (good for a number 2 seed). Cool story, bro.
W's PICK: Bryant. It's too good of a story, although if they do make it and it gets crammed down our throats like everything else ESPN latches on too I'm going to regret rooting for this to happen. The Bulldogs aren't just a novelty - they rank #1 in the NEC in offensive efficiency and have two 17+ ppg scorers who cover you on the perimeter and in the paint with three other 9+ point scorers. They probably play too crappy on the defensive side to threaten anybody in the NCAA Tournament but as far as the NEC goes? It's in play. Sorry Robert Morris, maybe fourth time is the charm?
As far as Tuesday's results, Arkansas - a pretty big longshot as it stood - got crushed by Missouri which should take them out of the running for an at-large. Southern Miss lost by just four to Marshall, but that pretty much kilt them as well. Notre Dame probably sealed it with a win over St. Johns, while Iowa kept the dream alive by beating Illinois (who is probably safe either way). In the big elimination game between Ole Miss and Alabama the Rebels took care of business, beating Bama by four in a game they basically controlled from the tip so they're still alive, while Memphis locked up their bid, if they hadn't already, by taking down UTEP on the road. Meanwhile Boise State looked every bit a tournament team at UNLV, but because they didn't get the win they remain an absolutely difficult read. Just looking at season results and eye test they seem legit, but are about as hard on the bubble as possible. Interesting team to watch.
Wednesday's action features a nice mix of teams who really could use a big win - Villanova (vs. Georgetown), Iowa State (vs. Oklahoma State), Maryland (vs. UNC) - can lock up a bid with a win - Oklahoma (@ WVU), Cal (vs. Stanford), San Diego State (vs. Air Force), Minnesota (@ Nebraska) - and team's on shaky ground who can't afford a loss to an inferior opponent - Temple (@ Fordham), LaSalle (vs. G. Washington), and VCU (vs. Richmond). In other words, there's a ton going on that could shift a whole bunch of teams a whole bunch of lines. Should be fun night. I'll spend it watching the Gophers instead.
Monday, March 4, 2013
Conference Tournament Previews (Tuesday Editiion)
It's March, which means I'll do what I do every year at this time. Well, actually what I do every year at this time is obsess over the Bubble and try to figure out exactly how many games the Gophers need to win to get a bid or if they're already out unless they win the B10 Tournament. Since I don't have to worry about that this year (they're in, nerds) I'll concentrate more on the other thing I do every year at the beginning of March - celebrate the smaller conference tournaments and rejoice in day action. So here's we go.
These tournaments kick-off the action, beginning on Tuesday:
[ED. NOTE: I stepped all over TRE's Gopher hockey post, so make sure to check it out.]
BIG SOUTH
Wow. What a way to kick things off. The Big South has traditionally been pretty bad, but usually one of the teams is at least a threat. In recent years Winthrop, UNC-Asheville, and Gardner Webb have at least been a threat to win a first round game (with Winthrop pretty much being a mid-major darling) but those days are gone. This is a bad conference (ranks #29 out of #31 NCAA eligible conferences.
FAVORITE: Charleston Southern. Both the Buccaneers and High Point finished the conference schedule at 12-4, but the Bucs get the #1 seed thanks to beating the Panthers in their only meeting this season. Although these two teams are the best of the Big South by a wide margin they still aren't very good, combining to beat just three teams ranked better than #200 in kenpom's ratings (and none better than #189) and they have a combined five wins over non D-I teams between them.
SLEEPER: Virginia Military Academy. I believe in all the years I've been doing this I've picked VMI as the sleeper in the Big South regardless of their record (8-8 this year) because they play such an interesting style - run, run, run, score, no defense. It hasn't really worked this year, outside of a 4-0 start to conference play, but despite that pace the Keydets rarely turn the ball over so they get off tons of shots. They just need to get hot and they can make a run, although that hasn't happened much this season.
W's PICK: High Point. This is rough. Every one of these teams has some pretty glaring flaws, even compared to their peers. I'll go with the Panthers who have the league's #1 most efficient offense top defensive squad vs. three-pointers, but really anybody could come out of here to get crushed later.
HORIZON LEAGUE
It's a definite change to not just write Butler in here, but these are the winds of change and so go the days of our lives or something. And now Butler might be joining that new basketball only conference with the Catholic 7 from the Big East? Or formerly Big East or new Big East? I can't keep up. I enjoyed the first few rounds of conference realignment as much as the next guy, but seriously can we take our foot of the gas so I can figure out who goes where for a year or two?
FAVORITE: Valparaiso. Despite the loss of the star power of Butler, there are still a couple of stacked teams in the Horizon in Valpo and Detroit, who both made my preseason list of Top 68 teams (at #36 and #46, respectively). Although neither is in the at-large conversation anymore, both have enough ability to pull off a first round upset in the NCAA Tournament.
SLEEPER: UW-Green Bay. The Phoenix (lol) have non-conference wins over NDSU and Marquette, two of just four wins this conference managed against Kenpom Top 100 teams this year (none of which came from Valpo or Detroit, it's worth noting). They probably aren't a major threat this year but UWGB is a really young team with only one senior, so expect the Phoenix to rise to the top of the standings in the next year or two. You like that? Expect the Phoenix to rise? God I'm Rick Reilly.
W's PICK: Valparaiso. It actually pains me a little to pick against Detroit and Ray McCallum who will be in the NBA someday and is super awesome, but Valpo is stacked. Their trio of Bobby Capobianco (formerly of Indiana), Ryan Broekhoff, and Kevin van Wijk give them a combination of size, ability, and experience that few mid-majors can match. Assuming they can get somebody - anybody - to give them capable guard play and this is a dangerous March team.
Last night in college basketball nothing really interesting happened. Louisville crushed Cincinnati, which was supposed to happen, and Kansas super-crushed Texas Tech, which was definitely supposed to happen. This helps Kansas creep closer to a one seed as well as putting more pressure on Cincy who was looking like a definite NCAA team earlier this year but has sputtered lately. As long as they don't blow their last game against South Florida they should still be ok, but they've lost four of their last five and six of their last eight, so there's definitely some pressure involved in that last game.
The biggest bubble news of the night was Baylor's loss at Texas, which pretty much ends the Bears hope for an at-large. Has anybody ever done less with more than Scott Drew? Well I guess that's a little rough considering he has two Elite Eights since 2010, but those teams seemed to succeed in spite of Drew, not because of him. Right?
As far as bubble action tonight Arkansas is probably in the biggest must win situation here (@ Missouri) with a too high RPI and this being a big chance to get a signature win to help bring that down, although Boise State could really, really use a win at UNLV. Notre Dame is probably already in but it would behoove them to not lose at home to St. John's. Illinois probably puts themselves solidly in if they win at Iowa, while a loss isn't a killer, while Memphis faces a similar game at UTEP but a loss would hurt the Tigers quite a bit more. Lastly, we have a true elimination game with Alabama @ Ole Miss. It's very possible neither team gets in, but the winner definitely won't (barring an SEC Tournament title). Fun time of year, especially when I'm not worried about the Gophers every single day. Neat.
These tournaments kick-off the action, beginning on Tuesday:
[ED. NOTE: I stepped all over TRE's Gopher hockey post, so make sure to check it out.]
BIG SOUTH
Wow. What a way to kick things off. The Big South has traditionally been pretty bad, but usually one of the teams is at least a threat. In recent years Winthrop, UNC-Asheville, and Gardner Webb have at least been a threat to win a first round game (with Winthrop pretty much being a mid-major darling) but those days are gone. This is a bad conference (ranks #29 out of #31 NCAA eligible conferences.
FAVORITE: Charleston Southern. Both the Buccaneers and High Point finished the conference schedule at 12-4, but the Bucs get the #1 seed thanks to beating the Panthers in their only meeting this season. Although these two teams are the best of the Big South by a wide margin they still aren't very good, combining to beat just three teams ranked better than #200 in kenpom's ratings (and none better than #189) and they have a combined five wins over non D-I teams between them.
SLEEPER: Virginia Military Academy. I believe in all the years I've been doing this I've picked VMI as the sleeper in the Big South regardless of their record (8-8 this year) because they play such an interesting style - run, run, run, score, no defense. It hasn't really worked this year, outside of a 4-0 start to conference play, but despite that pace the Keydets rarely turn the ball over so they get off tons of shots. They just need to get hot and they can make a run, although that hasn't happened much this season.
W's PICK: High Point. This is rough. Every one of these teams has some pretty glaring flaws, even compared to their peers. I'll go with the Panthers who have the league's #1 most efficient offense top defensive squad vs. three-pointers, but really anybody could come out of here to get crushed later.
HORIZON LEAGUE
It's a definite change to not just write Butler in here, but these are the winds of change and so go the days of our lives or something. And now Butler might be joining that new basketball only conference with the Catholic 7 from the Big East? Or formerly Big East or new Big East? I can't keep up. I enjoyed the first few rounds of conference realignment as much as the next guy, but seriously can we take our foot of the gas so I can figure out who goes where for a year or two?
FAVORITE: Valparaiso. Despite the loss of the star power of Butler, there are still a couple of stacked teams in the Horizon in Valpo and Detroit, who both made my preseason list of Top 68 teams (at #36 and #46, respectively). Although neither is in the at-large conversation anymore, both have enough ability to pull off a first round upset in the NCAA Tournament.
SLEEPER: UW-Green Bay. The Phoenix (lol) have non-conference wins over NDSU and Marquette, two of just four wins this conference managed against Kenpom Top 100 teams this year (none of which came from Valpo or Detroit, it's worth noting). They probably aren't a major threat this year but UWGB is a really young team with only one senior, so expect the Phoenix to rise to the top of the standings in the next year or two. You like that? Expect the Phoenix to rise? God I'm Rick Reilly.
W's PICK: Valparaiso. It actually pains me a little to pick against Detroit and Ray McCallum who will be in the NBA someday and is super awesome, but Valpo is stacked. Their trio of Bobby Capobianco (formerly of Indiana), Ryan Broekhoff, and Kevin van Wijk give them a combination of size, ability, and experience that few mid-majors can match. Assuming they can get somebody - anybody - to give them capable guard play and this is a dangerous March team.
Last night in college basketball nothing really interesting happened. Louisville crushed Cincinnati, which was supposed to happen, and Kansas super-crushed Texas Tech, which was definitely supposed to happen. This helps Kansas creep closer to a one seed as well as putting more pressure on Cincy who was looking like a definite NCAA team earlier this year but has sputtered lately. As long as they don't blow their last game against South Florida they should still be ok, but they've lost four of their last five and six of their last eight, so there's definitely some pressure involved in that last game.
The biggest bubble news of the night was Baylor's loss at Texas, which pretty much ends the Bears hope for an at-large. Has anybody ever done less with more than Scott Drew? Well I guess that's a little rough considering he has two Elite Eights since 2010, but those teams seemed to succeed in spite of Drew, not because of him. Right?
As far as bubble action tonight Arkansas is probably in the biggest must win situation here (@ Missouri) with a too high RPI and this being a big chance to get a signature win to help bring that down, although Boise State could really, really use a win at UNLV. Notre Dame is probably already in but it would behoove them to not lose at home to St. John's. Illinois probably puts themselves solidly in if they win at Iowa, while a loss isn't a killer, while Memphis faces a similar game at UTEP but a loss would hurt the Tigers quite a bit more. Lastly, we have a true elimination game with Alabama @ Ole Miss. It's very possible neither team gets in, but the winner definitely won't (barring an SEC Tournament title). Fun time of year, especially when I'm not worried about the Gophers every single day. Neat.
Sunday, February 24, 2013
Where do the Gophers stand?
As of Sunday morning, the Gophers RPI is a robust 15 with the number 1 strength of schedule. I know what you're thinking, "Number 1 SoS? Get out of here", but it's the truth. Whether by design, luck, or something in between the Gophers managed to face very few true cupcakes this year. Going by RPI, only American (#286) and North Florida (#224) rank outside the top 200, which is cupcake territory. Every other opponent was at least decent, and having faced Duke (#1), Indiana (#6), Michigan State x 2 (#7), Michigan (#9), Memphis (#18), Ohio State (#23), Wisconsin x 2 (#24), Illinois x 2 (#33), Stanford (#67), Florida State (#68), Richmond (#80), South Dakota State (#84), North Dakota State (#86), Iowa x 2 (#90), Nebraska (#97), and USC (#100) you can see how they have the #1 SoS - I mean that is a pretty brutal slate. That's 20 games against the RPI top 100, and for comparison sake the #2 (Duke) and #3 (Miami) team's in SoS have played 18 and 16 games against that kind of competition.
Make no mistake, the Gophers computer numbers are extraordinarily strong. The only team to ever miss the tournament with anything resembling the Gophers' RPI was Missouri State in 2006 with an RPI of 21, but that was the year the Missouri Valley had 4 other teams get in and I'm guessing the committee wasn't about to put five teams in from a mid-major. Plus with 6 conference losses, no impressive out of conference wins, and a first round loss in the MVC Tournament they weren't really that strong of a team anyway - the situation is in no way comparable to the Gophers.
Breaking down the Gophers' results further, they've gone 3-6 against the RPI Top 25, 4-7 against the Top 50, and 12-8 against the top 100 - these are all really, really strong results. Add in road/neutral wins against Memphis, Illinois, Stanford, and FSU (all top 100 teams) and everything about their resume on paper says this is absolutely a tournament team. On paper.
As you know since you are reading this and I assume you're a Gopher fan, the Gophers haven't done anything worth noting in over a month outside of an extremely lucky OT win versus Wisconsin. They're currently in a 3-8 skid, and the last two losses have been really, really ugly - that matters. Right now the Gophers are on the bubble, but they're on the right side of the bubble. Joe Lunardi at ESPN has them as a 10 seed right now, but I'm guessing even a guy who somehow makes a living projecting the tournament field has no idea what to do with such a bizarre profile where the on court results and computer numbers don't match up.
I think for the Gophers to make it in the tournament it's pretty simple - they just need to finish strong. Whether it's beating Indiana, as unlikely as that feels right now, or by winning their final three games (Penn State, @Nebraska, @Purdue), a strong finish likely puts them in regardless of the results in the B10 Tournament. But fail to beat Indiana and drop one of those three games (I'm not even going to speculate on what would happen if they lost more than one, because that's pretty much season's over)? Suddenly the B10 Tournament becomes very important.
Let's assume they end up finishing 7th. The first round match-up would be against probably either Nebraska or Northwestern (Nebraska would be better since they're a top 100 RPI team right now). After that if they won the Gophers would play somebody like Michigan State who would probably just crush them. So, basically, the Gophers really need to take care of business to finish up the season.
There are plenty of other teams out there who are on the bubble and in similar shape to the Gophers, but it's not really worth worrying about them just yet because Minnesota's path is clear - finish strong. Beat Indiana and they're probably in even if they lose on of the last three. Lose to Indiana but finish out with three wins and they're in. Get to 9-9 in conference play one way or another and not only will we not have to sweat selection sunday, but the B10 Tournament becomes pretty meaningless as well. At 8-10 though? Well, then things get awfully tight.
I'd prefer to tackle the "fire Tubby or not" question in the offseason. For now, I'd just like to see the Gophers back in the tournament. Maybe even get a win. A boy can dream, can't he?
Make no mistake, the Gophers computer numbers are extraordinarily strong. The only team to ever miss the tournament with anything resembling the Gophers' RPI was Missouri State in 2006 with an RPI of 21, but that was the year the Missouri Valley had 4 other teams get in and I'm guessing the committee wasn't about to put five teams in from a mid-major. Plus with 6 conference losses, no impressive out of conference wins, and a first round loss in the MVC Tournament they weren't really that strong of a team anyway - the situation is in no way comparable to the Gophers.
Breaking down the Gophers' results further, they've gone 3-6 against the RPI Top 25, 4-7 against the Top 50, and 12-8 against the top 100 - these are all really, really strong results. Add in road/neutral wins against Memphis, Illinois, Stanford, and FSU (all top 100 teams) and everything about their resume on paper says this is absolutely a tournament team. On paper.
As you know since you are reading this and I assume you're a Gopher fan, the Gophers haven't done anything worth noting in over a month outside of an extremely lucky OT win versus Wisconsin. They're currently in a 3-8 skid, and the last two losses have been really, really ugly - that matters. Right now the Gophers are on the bubble, but they're on the right side of the bubble. Joe Lunardi at ESPN has them as a 10 seed right now, but I'm guessing even a guy who somehow makes a living projecting the tournament field has no idea what to do with such a bizarre profile where the on court results and computer numbers don't match up.
I think for the Gophers to make it in the tournament it's pretty simple - they just need to finish strong. Whether it's beating Indiana, as unlikely as that feels right now, or by winning their final three games (Penn State, @Nebraska, @Purdue), a strong finish likely puts them in regardless of the results in the B10 Tournament. But fail to beat Indiana and drop one of those three games (I'm not even going to speculate on what would happen if they lost more than one, because that's pretty much season's over)? Suddenly the B10 Tournament becomes very important.
Let's assume they end up finishing 7th. The first round match-up would be against probably either Nebraska or Northwestern (Nebraska would be better since they're a top 100 RPI team right now). After that if they won the Gophers would play somebody like Michigan State who would probably just crush them. So, basically, the Gophers really need to take care of business to finish up the season.
There are plenty of other teams out there who are on the bubble and in similar shape to the Gophers, but it's not really worth worrying about them just yet because Minnesota's path is clear - finish strong. Beat Indiana and they're probably in even if they lose on of the last three. Lose to Indiana but finish out with three wins and they're in. Get to 9-9 in conference play one way or another and not only will we not have to sweat selection sunday, but the B10 Tournament becomes pretty meaningless as well. At 8-10 though? Well, then things get awfully tight.
I'd prefer to tackle the "fire Tubby or not" question in the offseason. For now, I'd just like to see the Gophers back in the tournament. Maybe even get a win. A boy can dream, can't he?
Friday, March 2, 2012
Weekend Tournaments (and early next week)
When I said at the bottom of yesterday's post that there weren't really any games with bubble implications last night, I was counting Virginia as a lock. After blowing a home game to Florida State last night they're suddenly looking a wee bit shakier. They're probably still in good shape (losing to FSU isn't anywhere near a bad loss), but absolutely need to win at Maryland this weekend or the ACC Tournament is going to be nerve-wracking. Elsewhere Washington avoided a bad loss by smoking USC on the road and Oregon won a bubble elimination game by knocking of Colorado at home. Oregon is still not anywhere near in, but they are still in the conversation. And that's about it.
BIG SKY (saturday):
My third team I root for (behind Minnesota, then Iowa State) resides here in Weber State, and they look solid once again this year. Unfortunately it's a pretty down year in the mountains, with only Weber and Montana having anything resembling good seasons. Not that it really matters, I'm not sure if I can recall the Big Sky ever getting an at-large, and that's not likely to change any time soon.
Favorite: Montana. The Grizzlies win over Weber on Tuesday bumped them a game ahead of the Wildcats and into first place. Not that it really matters, because only six teams make the tournament and the 1 and 2 seeds get byes, so it's win one each and then Montana and Weber face off again.
Sleeper: Eastern Washington. There's not really anything special about the Eagles, but they play at a fast pace and don't turn it over so they'll get plenty of shots. Unfortunately they can't shoot. But what if they could? Think about that.
W's Pick: Weber State. Of course I'm going to pick Weber, but in this case it makes sense. Their best player is point guard Damian Lillard who's second in the country in scoring at 24.5 per game, and he's good enough to take over and bring the Wildcats back to the tournament where we could have Harold Arceneaux part II: Shorter and Whiter.
MID-AMERICAN (monday):
Seems as if every year the MAC is almost a two-bid league. Like, every year either Akron or Kent State is close but they can't get over the hump, and by not over the hump I mean they can't even get themselves on the Bubble. But somehow they always seem to have a team that's close. I don't know, maybe I'm a weirdo.
Favorite: Akron. And, once again, the Zips would be that team this year. Coming into their bracket buster game against Oral Roberts they were 19-7 and 11-1 in league with no real bad losses, and a win over ORU would have probably moved them from off the bubble to the bottom of it. Instead they lost to the Golden Eagles and followed that up by losing two of the next three. They're still the class of the league at 12-3 (pending Friday night's regular season finale at Kent State) and the definite favorite.
Sleeper: Ohio. This was supposed to be a big year for the Bobcats who were returning six of their top 8 scorers plus adding a couple "impact" transfers and some good freshmen. It hasn't quite worked out to be their year, but Ohio is still the best defensive team in the MAC and D.J. Cooper is still around, the point man who was instrumental in leading Ohio to a MAC Tourney win as a freshman, not to mention scoring 23 with 8 assists in their first round upset over Georgetown.
W's Pick: Ohio. I remember Cooper and what he did as a freshman and it wouldn't shock me to see it happen again. Plus, if it wasn't for a couple of bizarre mid-season losses to Eastern Michigan and Toledo the Bobcats would be 12-3 and tied with Akron for first place, not to mention they just pasted the Zips by 24 a week ago.
MID-EASTERN ATLANTIC (monday):
One of the worst conferences, and always one of the worst conferences (never ranked better than 30th in the land according to kenpom.com), the MEAC nonetheless can produce some interesting stuff. Like Reggie Holmes. How could you forget Reggie Holmes? Simply put, the best chucker I've ever seen - and by best I don't mean most skilled, although he did nearly lead the nation in scoring. So that's why, no matter what, I will always partially love the MEAC. That and they have Bethune-Cookman, which is still my favorite name for a college ever.
Favorite: Savannah State. In 2005 Savannah State finished the year 0-28, the first winless D-I team since 1992. A few short years later they set the record for fewest points in a half after scoring just 4 against Kansas State on 1-23 shooting in the second half. Now they're the #1 seed in the MEAC Tournament after going 14-2 this year. Quite the turnaround. Also there's a chance they're not 100% D-I eligible yet so it's actually possible they might not be playing in this tournament in which case they're not really the #1 seed, obviously. I kind of tried to look it up but after searching for like, a minute I couldn't find anything so I quit.
Sleeper: Coppin State. In a league that's just bad you end up with a whole ton of horrid offensive teams. Coppin State is the exception. They rank 53rd in the NCAA in points per game and 124th in offensive efficiency, which may not sound like much but it's the best in the conference by far and only Delaware State is even close.
W's Pick: Coppin State. I don't know, it seems like they always win. Plus they at least shoot the three-pointer well which means they might be a halfway interesting 16 seed, assuming they win their play-in game.
SUMMIT LEAGUE (saturday):
You know who loves the Summit League? All the dorky Gopher fans who have already bailed on the team and have decided to throw all their support behind South Dakota State and their little boyfriend Nate Wolters, just like all those same dorks were all behind NDSU that one year when they made the tournament. Well you know who hates teams like those? Yeah, I do. Screw those nerds. I hate all teams from all states that border this one except Iowa State.
Favorite: Oral Roberts. The Golden Eagles are actually not that far off of the bubble thanks to an RPI of 44 and a 26-5 overall record. It's very doubtful they get a bid even if they make the final but lose, but the Golden Eagles have wins over Xavier and Akron and held tough with Gonzaga and West Virginia. I very much hope they make it because they could give somebody a nice tussle in round one.
Sleeper: Oakland. The Golden Grizzlies (really? Two "golden" teams in the same conference?) had a bit of a fall-off after losing Keith Benson from last year's super good team that somehow couldn't even beat Texas, but they still finished third in the league this year and have Reggie Hamilton back. Hamilton is the leading scorer in the nation while still managing to chip in 5.1 assists per game and he had an absolutely monster Summit tourney last year and had a great game against Texas. He's absolutely capable of carrying this team to a title.
W's Pick: South Dakota State. I'd love to see ORU or Oakland have a chance to take a run at somebody, but because life loves irritating me I'm sure the stupid Jackrabbits will end up making it. At least my cousin will be happy since she's alumni. Unless she went to USD. I have to be honest, I'm not exactly sure. Maybe I'm not the best cousin.
SUN BELT (saturday):
For much of the year Middle Tennessee State was bringing back the memories of when the Sun Belt used to be good with Courtney Lee and Taco Hawk running around for Western Kentucky and whoever used to be on South Alabama doing good things and all that jazz. Then they lost to that same WKU team in the regular season finale, and since WKU's RPI is in the sub-200 range and MTSU had basically zero margin for error, they really better win this tournament.
Favorite: Middle Tennessee. I just said that, dummy, pay attention. The Blue Raiders might not have any "holy shit" type wins, but they did beat Ole Miss, Akron, Belmont, and Loyola Marymount and crushed UCLA (which sounded better earlier in the year, but still). They also rank in kenpom's top 100 for both offensive and defensive efficiency, and you know how many teams can say that? Well, a lot, actually, but not too many from conferences like the Sun Belt.
Sleeper: Denver. If I remember correctly, Denver was the preseason favorite to win the Sun Belt, and after some early season issues they've won their last four to close out the year and finish 11-5, and also beat MTSU in their last meeting.
W's Pick: Denver. Check these stats: The Pioneers shoot 40.1% from three, 11th in the country, and compliment that by shooting 55.9% from two, which is second best in the nation (behind Missouri). They also play at a really slow pace (326th) so if they could just stop somebody they'd be money. I'd really like to see them get in because I think they'd be a fascinating first round match-up.
Plenty of bubble stuff going on this weekend, and that's without even counting the conference tournament stuff. Harvard has a big weekend starting tonight. If they can sweep Columbia and Cornell on the road they'll lock up at least a tie for the Ivy Title, and those two wins might be enough to get them in anyway. Texas has a huge chance to get the giant win they desperately need at Kansas, although that might be too tall an order. Teams like UCONN (vs. Pitt), Memphis (@ Tulsa), St. Louis (@ Duquesne), Kansas State (vs. Okla State), Washington (@ UCLA), Cincy (@ Nova), Miami (vs. BC), Miss State (vs Arkansas), Seton Hall (@DePaul), Oregon (vs. Utah), Virginia (@ Maryland), and Arizona (@ ASU) need to avoid a loss, while Southern Miss is probably fine either way but a win @ Marshall would go a long way. Perhaps the biggest bubble game of the weekend is WVU @ South Florida - the winner is probably in, the loser will need to make a decent run in the Big East tournament.
Also Mrs. W just got back from an early screening of Project X and told me it was like a combination of Superbad, Hangover, and Can't Hardly Wait. She then told me it was a terrible movie. lolwut? Those are like, three of the best movies of all-time, can't possibly see how this would be terrible. I think she might be a bit touched in the head, but don't tell her I said that.
BIG SKY (saturday):
My third team I root for (behind Minnesota, then Iowa State) resides here in Weber State, and they look solid once again this year. Unfortunately it's a pretty down year in the mountains, with only Weber and Montana having anything resembling good seasons. Not that it really matters, I'm not sure if I can recall the Big Sky ever getting an at-large, and that's not likely to change any time soon.
Favorite: Montana. The Grizzlies win over Weber on Tuesday bumped them a game ahead of the Wildcats and into first place. Not that it really matters, because only six teams make the tournament and the 1 and 2 seeds get byes, so it's win one each and then Montana and Weber face off again.
Sleeper: Eastern Washington. There's not really anything special about the Eagles, but they play at a fast pace and don't turn it over so they'll get plenty of shots. Unfortunately they can't shoot. But what if they could? Think about that.
W's Pick: Weber State. Of course I'm going to pick Weber, but in this case it makes sense. Their best player is point guard Damian Lillard who's second in the country in scoring at 24.5 per game, and he's good enough to take over and bring the Wildcats back to the tournament where we could have Harold Arceneaux part II: Shorter and Whiter.
MID-AMERICAN (monday):
Seems as if every year the MAC is almost a two-bid league. Like, every year either Akron or Kent State is close but they can't get over the hump, and by not over the hump I mean they can't even get themselves on the Bubble. But somehow they always seem to have a team that's close. I don't know, maybe I'm a weirdo.
Favorite: Akron. And, once again, the Zips would be that team this year. Coming into their bracket buster game against Oral Roberts they were 19-7 and 11-1 in league with no real bad losses, and a win over ORU would have probably moved them from off the bubble to the bottom of it. Instead they lost to the Golden Eagles and followed that up by losing two of the next three. They're still the class of the league at 12-3 (pending Friday night's regular season finale at Kent State) and the definite favorite.
Sleeper: Ohio. This was supposed to be a big year for the Bobcats who were returning six of their top 8 scorers plus adding a couple "impact" transfers and some good freshmen. It hasn't quite worked out to be their year, but Ohio is still the best defensive team in the MAC and D.J. Cooper is still around, the point man who was instrumental in leading Ohio to a MAC Tourney win as a freshman, not to mention scoring 23 with 8 assists in their first round upset over Georgetown.
W's Pick: Ohio. I remember Cooper and what he did as a freshman and it wouldn't shock me to see it happen again. Plus, if it wasn't for a couple of bizarre mid-season losses to Eastern Michigan and Toledo the Bobcats would be 12-3 and tied with Akron for first place, not to mention they just pasted the Zips by 24 a week ago.
MID-EASTERN ATLANTIC (monday):
One of the worst conferences, and always one of the worst conferences (never ranked better than 30th in the land according to kenpom.com), the MEAC nonetheless can produce some interesting stuff. Like Reggie Holmes. How could you forget Reggie Holmes? Simply put, the best chucker I've ever seen - and by best I don't mean most skilled, although he did nearly lead the nation in scoring. So that's why, no matter what, I will always partially love the MEAC. That and they have Bethune-Cookman, which is still my favorite name for a college ever.
Favorite: Savannah State. In 2005 Savannah State finished the year 0-28, the first winless D-I team since 1992. A few short years later they set the record for fewest points in a half after scoring just 4 against Kansas State on 1-23 shooting in the second half. Now they're the #1 seed in the MEAC Tournament after going 14-2 this year. Quite the turnaround. Also there's a chance they're not 100% D-I eligible yet so it's actually possible they might not be playing in this tournament in which case they're not really the #1 seed, obviously. I kind of tried to look it up but after searching for like, a minute I couldn't find anything so I quit.
Sleeper: Coppin State. In a league that's just bad you end up with a whole ton of horrid offensive teams. Coppin State is the exception. They rank 53rd in the NCAA in points per game and 124th in offensive efficiency, which may not sound like much but it's the best in the conference by far and only Delaware State is even close.
W's Pick: Coppin State. I don't know, it seems like they always win. Plus they at least shoot the three-pointer well which means they might be a halfway interesting 16 seed, assuming they win their play-in game.
SUMMIT LEAGUE (saturday):
You know who loves the Summit League? All the dorky Gopher fans who have already bailed on the team and have decided to throw all their support behind South Dakota State and their little boyfriend Nate Wolters, just like all those same dorks were all behind NDSU that one year when they made the tournament. Well you know who hates teams like those? Yeah, I do. Screw those nerds. I hate all teams from all states that border this one except Iowa State.
Favorite: Oral Roberts. The Golden Eagles are actually not that far off of the bubble thanks to an RPI of 44 and a 26-5 overall record. It's very doubtful they get a bid even if they make the final but lose, but the Golden Eagles have wins over Xavier and Akron and held tough with Gonzaga and West Virginia. I very much hope they make it because they could give somebody a nice tussle in round one.
Sleeper: Oakland. The Golden Grizzlies (really? Two "golden" teams in the same conference?) had a bit of a fall-off after losing Keith Benson from last year's super good team that somehow couldn't even beat Texas, but they still finished third in the league this year and have Reggie Hamilton back. Hamilton is the leading scorer in the nation while still managing to chip in 5.1 assists per game and he had an absolutely monster Summit tourney last year and had a great game against Texas. He's absolutely capable of carrying this team to a title.
W's Pick: South Dakota State. I'd love to see ORU or Oakland have a chance to take a run at somebody, but because life loves irritating me I'm sure the stupid Jackrabbits will end up making it. At least my cousin will be happy since she's alumni. Unless she went to USD. I have to be honest, I'm not exactly sure. Maybe I'm not the best cousin.
SUN BELT (saturday):
For much of the year Middle Tennessee State was bringing back the memories of when the Sun Belt used to be good with Courtney Lee and Taco Hawk running around for Western Kentucky and whoever used to be on South Alabama doing good things and all that jazz. Then they lost to that same WKU team in the regular season finale, and since WKU's RPI is in the sub-200 range and MTSU had basically zero margin for error, they really better win this tournament.
Favorite: Middle Tennessee. I just said that, dummy, pay attention. The Blue Raiders might not have any "holy shit" type wins, but they did beat Ole Miss, Akron, Belmont, and Loyola Marymount and crushed UCLA (which sounded better earlier in the year, but still). They also rank in kenpom's top 100 for both offensive and defensive efficiency, and you know how many teams can say that? Well, a lot, actually, but not too many from conferences like the Sun Belt.
Sleeper: Denver. If I remember correctly, Denver was the preseason favorite to win the Sun Belt, and after some early season issues they've won their last four to close out the year and finish 11-5, and also beat MTSU in their last meeting.
W's Pick: Denver. Check these stats: The Pioneers shoot 40.1% from three, 11th in the country, and compliment that by shooting 55.9% from two, which is second best in the nation (behind Missouri). They also play at a really slow pace (326th) so if they could just stop somebody they'd be money. I'd really like to see them get in because I think they'd be a fascinating first round match-up.
Plenty of bubble stuff going on this weekend, and that's without even counting the conference tournament stuff. Harvard has a big weekend starting tonight. If they can sweep Columbia and Cornell on the road they'll lock up at least a tie for the Ivy Title, and those two wins might be enough to get them in anyway. Texas has a huge chance to get the giant win they desperately need at Kansas, although that might be too tall an order. Teams like UCONN (vs. Pitt), Memphis (@ Tulsa), St. Louis (@ Duquesne), Kansas State (vs. Okla State), Washington (@ UCLA), Cincy (@ Nova), Miami (vs. BC), Miss State (vs Arkansas), Seton Hall (@DePaul), Oregon (vs. Utah), Virginia (@ Maryland), and Arizona (@ ASU) need to avoid a loss, while Southern Miss is probably fine either way but a win @ Marshall would go a long way. Perhaps the biggest bubble game of the weekend is WVU @ South Florida - the winner is probably in, the loser will need to make a decent run in the Big East tournament.
Also Mrs. W just got back from an early screening of Project X and told me it was like a combination of Superbad, Hangover, and Can't Hardly Wait. She then told me it was a terrible movie. lolwut? Those are like, three of the best movies of all-time, can't possibly see how this would be terrible. I think she might be a bit touched in the head, but don't tell her I said that.
Thursday, March 1, 2012
Thursday - Friday Tourneys
There were some games with major bubble implications last night, and in most cases they've moved teams closer towards the good. Both Cincinnati (over Marquette) and South Florida (over Louisville) picked up major, major victories against top level RPI teams (Marquette = 7, L'Ville = 28) which, fortunately, is exactly what both teams needed. You can also add Colorado State to the "doin' good things" list, because by beating UNLV at home that gives them another huge win (UNLV RPI = 11). You can probably move all three teams to locks, or at least pretty close to it. Speaking of locks, Alabama and Purdue move into that territory, if the weren't already there, with wins over Auburn and Penn State (thus avoiding a late bad loss). Southern Miss also avoided a bad loss by taking down SMU. With just Marshall left the Eagles are in good shape as long as they don't drop one too early in the C-USA Tournament, and Mississippi State (win over South Carolina in OT) and Texas (win over Oklahoma) stayed alive.
It wasn't all sunshine and puppy dogs, however, with the biggest heartbreak coming from Evanston, where Northwestern made a furious comeback to tie the game only to have Ohio State score with 3 seconds left to steal back the victory. The loss doesn't crush the Wildcats NCAA bid hopes and hopefully doesn't crush their spirit, because getting that win would have all but guaranteed them a bid. Miami also picked up a hurtful loss, losing at NC State. It hurts more than the Wildcats loss to Ohio State, even if it doesn't feel like it
AMERICA EAST (Thurs):
One of the worst conferences in the country (kenpom.com ranks it 29th out of 32), but that's mainly due to the deadweight at the bottom (including 1-28 Binghampton). The top couple of teams are decent, and this conference has given us some memorable March moments over the years like Vermont's win over Syacuse in the first round and Albany's near upset of #1 seed UCONN.
Favorite: Stony Brook. The Seawolves ended Vermont's three-year run as regular season champions (which resulted in only one NCAA Tournament appearance). They rank as team #122 on kenpom, which puts them in the same class as Penn State, for whatever that's worth.
Sleeper: Albany. The Greyhounds (great nicknames in this conference, seriously) finished fourth and boast the leagues best offense, including two of the top-5 scorers in the league. Teams like that can get hot and light things up in a short tournament.
W's Pick: Vermont. It would be kind of poetic to see the 2nd place Catamounts beat Stony Brook for the bid, since the same scenario happened last year with the team's flip-flopped. Plus Vermont finished the season out
MISSOURI VALLEY (Thurs):
Remember back when the MVC was the darlings of the NCAA and then became incredibly overrated and then just plain sucked? Well they're back with a couple of sweet 16 caliber teams including one team I think could make a Final Four run, and a whole bunch of decent teams who could surprise. Wichita State and Creighton are both locks to get at-large bids if they fall, but everybody else is going to need to win in St. Louis to make the dance.
Favorite: Wichita State. I have to be honest, I've come to love this team and seriously think they have Final four potential. Super efficient on offense, great defensively, with a very balanced team featuring seven big-time contributors, all of whom are juniors or seniors. And look at their four losses this year: Alabama, Temple (in OT), Creighton, and Drake (3 OT). Not a bad loss among them even if Drake is a little iffy. Love this team.
Sleeper: Northern Iowa. There are a whole mess of teams at 9-9 and you could pick any one of them here, but since nobody beat both Wichita and Creighton I'm going to just pick Northern Iowa here, solely because they shoot a ton of threes and they shoot them well - always a good combo for a sleeper run.
W's Pick: Creighton. Even though I think Wichita is the better team I have a feeling about Creighton for this tournament. Doug McDermott is a beast and Antoine Young can change a game all by himself. Plus I'd rather see Wichita with a lower seed because then when I put them in the Elite 8 I'll be the only one in the country who does. Sucka MC!
NORTHEAST CONFERENCE (Thurs):
A bit of an up year for the NEC, due to some decent out of conference wins (not good wins as we define them for bubble teams, but good for the NEC) with Wagner beating Pitt, Princeton, and Penn, Long Island knocking off Vermont, and Robert Morris beating LaSalle, Duquesne, and Ohio. So, you know, good for them.
Favorite: LIU-Brooklyn. The Blackbirds, who are also Miles Tarver's favorite team, didn't have as good a non-conference schedule as fellow top of the leaguers Wagner and RMU, but they did roll through league play and finished 16-2. And they're doing it by getting to line, as they have taken 49.5% as many free throws as they have field goal attempts, which is surprising 2nd in the nation, and they make them at a 73% clip, good for 55th. Such a weird stat.
Sleeper: Central Connecticut State. I don't know if they're any good, but I wanted to talk about them here simply because they have three players in the top 4 in the league in scoring: Kyle Horton is second in the league at 18.7ppg, Kyle Vinales is third at 18.0, and Robby Ptacek is fourth at 17.6. So weird. Those three score 78% of their team's points. I've never seen anything like that before.
W's Pick: Central Connecticut State. I can't get over it. It's incredible. They're all guards and two of them are seniors so a run is possible, plus it's just so cool. The three of them have combined to take 1,211 shots this season. The rest of the team has taken just 419, which is less than the Vinales guy and slightly more than either of the other two. This is the coolest thing I've ever heard of.
COLONIAL (friday):
Super interesting conference this year, at least if you ask a nerd like me, because there are two teams here fighting for bids: Drexel and VCU. If either team makes it to the final and loses they'll probably make it in (or if they win it, of course) but if either loses prior to that they're probably out. And in a deep league like the CAA with five teams among kenpom's top 110, it's going to take a very good team to make it to the final.
Favorite: Drexel. The Dragons won the league thanks to a 17-game win streak. They win because of their defense, which is absolutely stifling and the 7th hardest in the country to make shots against (the rest of the top 7 are all tournament locks). They don't turn you over, but they don't give up many good looks and don't allow second chances.
Sleeper: Georgia State. Old Dominion, George Mason, and Delaware are all probably more likely to win than Georgia State, but the Panthers were the only team this year to beat both VCU and Drexel, and that's gotta count for something.
W's Pick: Drexel. I already talked about their defense, but in a league with a heavy emphasis on that side of the ball (five teams in the CAA rank in the top 40 toughest defenses to make shots against), the Dragons sport the most effective offense and can score against these other squads. In fact, only Drexel and VCU rank in kenpom's top 150 in offensive efficiency. So really the CAA is a lot like the Big 10.
METRO ATLANTIC (friday):
Iona is the new Manhattan, which instantly reminds me of how much fun it was to have Luis Flores leading the Jaspers around. There was a time not so long ago when the only conferences that played Friday nights were the MAAC and the Ivy, and since the Ivy was boring what were a couple of gambling degenerates supposed to do but play the MAAC games. Man, Bogart and I knew just about everything there was to know about that conference back then. The glory days, I like to call them.
Favorite: Iona. The Gaels are in pretty solid shape to grab an NCAA at-large bid even if they don't win the tournament, but they'd be better off getting to the final because a loss prior to that is a loss against a RPI sub-100 team, and that could put just enough doubt in the committee's mind that they'll screw it up and leave Iona out.
Sleeper: Fairfield. The Stags were supposed to be right with Iona at the top of the conference with a shot at securing at at-large. It hasn't quite worked out with Fairfield finishing fourth in the conference at 12-6 and an overall record of just 17-13, but they still have a good enough backcourt to be dangerous.
W's Pick: Iona. I have to pick the Gaels because it would just be a shame to have them not make the tournament. I mean, Scott Machado leads the country with 10.1 assists per game! You know the last time somebody finished the year with double-digit assists per game? Well I don't because ESPN's stat archive thing only goes back to 2001, but it's been at least that long.
SOUTHERN (friday):
This conference is pretty bad these days. Davidson is solid again after a few post-Curry down years, but teams like Charleston and Wofford are significantly worse than last year (losing Noah Dahlman and Andrew Goudelock will do that), and the bottom of the conference is the pits. Despite Wofford and Charleston's step backs, they're still the clear #2 and #3 in the league.
Favorite: Davidson. Unfortunately for the Wildcats, two losses in a league this down is bad, and one of those losses coming to Samford (RPI 266) is a killer, particularly with too many questionable losses and not enough good wins outside of that stunner at Kansas. Hard to believe a team that won in Kansas City needs to win their conference tournament to get into the NCAAs, but here we are.
Sleeper: UNC-Greensboro. Davidson is head and shoulders above everybody else so it's hard to pin down any other team with a chance to beat them, but how about the Spartans? After starting the season 2-14, they went on a 10-1 tear to win the North Division. Of course, they're now on a 3-game losing streak, but hey, I gotta pick somebody.
W's Pick: Davidson. Yep, another favorite. They're just so much better than everyone else. I mean, Kansas's losses this year are against Kentucky, Duke, Missouri, Iowa State, and Davidson.
In a really weird scenario I can never remember seeing before this close to selection Sunday there's almost nothing tonight that affects the bubble. The only two games that matter are Washington @ USC and Colorado @ Oregon, and that last one barely does. Every other game tonight involves teams that are already solidly in or are completely out. I guess you could toss the Michigan @ Illinois game in there and say if Illinois wins they still have a very outside shot, so I guess we'll do that and call it three games of note.
It wasn't all sunshine and puppy dogs, however, with the biggest heartbreak coming from Evanston, where Northwestern made a furious comeback to tie the game only to have Ohio State score with 3 seconds left to steal back the victory. The loss doesn't crush the Wildcats NCAA bid hopes and hopefully doesn't crush their spirit, because getting that win would have all but guaranteed them a bid. Miami also picked up a hurtful loss, losing at NC State. It hurts more than the Wildcats loss to Ohio State, even if it doesn't feel like it
AMERICA EAST (Thurs):
One of the worst conferences in the country (kenpom.com ranks it 29th out of 32), but that's mainly due to the deadweight at the bottom (including 1-28 Binghampton). The top couple of teams are decent, and this conference has given us some memorable March moments over the years like Vermont's win over Syacuse in the first round and Albany's near upset of #1 seed UCONN.
Favorite: Stony Brook. The Seawolves ended Vermont's three-year run as regular season champions (which resulted in only one NCAA Tournament appearance). They rank as team #122 on kenpom, which puts them in the same class as Penn State, for whatever that's worth.
Sleeper: Albany. The Greyhounds (great nicknames in this conference, seriously) finished fourth and boast the leagues best offense, including two of the top-5 scorers in the league. Teams like that can get hot and light things up in a short tournament.
W's Pick: Vermont. It would be kind of poetic to see the 2nd place Catamounts beat Stony Brook for the bid, since the same scenario happened last year with the team's flip-flopped. Plus Vermont finished the season out
MISSOURI VALLEY (Thurs):
Remember back when the MVC was the darlings of the NCAA and then became incredibly overrated and then just plain sucked? Well they're back with a couple of sweet 16 caliber teams including one team I think could make a Final Four run, and a whole bunch of decent teams who could surprise. Wichita State and Creighton are both locks to get at-large bids if they fall, but everybody else is going to need to win in St. Louis to make the dance.
Favorite: Wichita State. I have to be honest, I've come to love this team and seriously think they have Final four potential. Super efficient on offense, great defensively, with a very balanced team featuring seven big-time contributors, all of whom are juniors or seniors. And look at their four losses this year: Alabama, Temple (in OT), Creighton, and Drake (3 OT). Not a bad loss among them even if Drake is a little iffy. Love this team.
Sleeper: Northern Iowa. There are a whole mess of teams at 9-9 and you could pick any one of them here, but since nobody beat both Wichita and Creighton I'm going to just pick Northern Iowa here, solely because they shoot a ton of threes and they shoot them well - always a good combo for a sleeper run.
W's Pick: Creighton. Even though I think Wichita is the better team I have a feeling about Creighton for this tournament. Doug McDermott is a beast and Antoine Young can change a game all by himself. Plus I'd rather see Wichita with a lower seed because then when I put them in the Elite 8 I'll be the only one in the country who does. Sucka MC!
NORTHEAST CONFERENCE (Thurs):
A bit of an up year for the NEC, due to some decent out of conference wins (not good wins as we define them for bubble teams, but good for the NEC) with Wagner beating Pitt, Princeton, and Penn, Long Island knocking off Vermont, and Robert Morris beating LaSalle, Duquesne, and Ohio. So, you know, good for them.
Favorite: LIU-Brooklyn. The Blackbirds, who are also Miles Tarver's favorite team, didn't have as good a non-conference schedule as fellow top of the leaguers Wagner and RMU, but they did roll through league play and finished 16-2. And they're doing it by getting to line, as they have taken 49.5% as many free throws as they have field goal attempts, which is surprising 2nd in the nation, and they make them at a 73% clip, good for 55th. Such a weird stat.
Sleeper: Central Connecticut State. I don't know if they're any good, but I wanted to talk about them here simply because they have three players in the top 4 in the league in scoring: Kyle Horton is second in the league at 18.7ppg, Kyle Vinales is third at 18.0, and Robby Ptacek is fourth at 17.6. So weird. Those three score 78% of their team's points. I've never seen anything like that before.
W's Pick: Central Connecticut State. I can't get over it. It's incredible. They're all guards and two of them are seniors so a run is possible, plus it's just so cool. The three of them have combined to take 1,211 shots this season. The rest of the team has taken just 419, which is less than the Vinales guy and slightly more than either of the other two. This is the coolest thing I've ever heard of.
COLONIAL (friday):
Super interesting conference this year, at least if you ask a nerd like me, because there are two teams here fighting for bids: Drexel and VCU. If either team makes it to the final and loses they'll probably make it in (or if they win it, of course) but if either loses prior to that they're probably out. And in a deep league like the CAA with five teams among kenpom's top 110, it's going to take a very good team to make it to the final.
Favorite: Drexel. The Dragons won the league thanks to a 17-game win streak. They win because of their defense, which is absolutely stifling and the 7th hardest in the country to make shots against (the rest of the top 7 are all tournament locks). They don't turn you over, but they don't give up many good looks and don't allow second chances.
Sleeper: Georgia State. Old Dominion, George Mason, and Delaware are all probably more likely to win than Georgia State, but the Panthers were the only team this year to beat both VCU and Drexel, and that's gotta count for something.
W's Pick: Drexel. I already talked about their defense, but in a league with a heavy emphasis on that side of the ball (five teams in the CAA rank in the top 40 toughest defenses to make shots against), the Dragons sport the most effective offense and can score against these other squads. In fact, only Drexel and VCU rank in kenpom's top 150 in offensive efficiency. So really the CAA is a lot like the Big 10.
METRO ATLANTIC (friday):
Iona is the new Manhattan, which instantly reminds me of how much fun it was to have Luis Flores leading the Jaspers around. There was a time not so long ago when the only conferences that played Friday nights were the MAAC and the Ivy, and since the Ivy was boring what were a couple of gambling degenerates supposed to do but play the MAAC games. Man, Bogart and I knew just about everything there was to know about that conference back then. The glory days, I like to call them.
Favorite: Iona. The Gaels are in pretty solid shape to grab an NCAA at-large bid even if they don't win the tournament, but they'd be better off getting to the final because a loss prior to that is a loss against a RPI sub-100 team, and that could put just enough doubt in the committee's mind that they'll screw it up and leave Iona out.
Sleeper: Fairfield. The Stags were supposed to be right with Iona at the top of the conference with a shot at securing at at-large. It hasn't quite worked out with Fairfield finishing fourth in the conference at 12-6 and an overall record of just 17-13, but they still have a good enough backcourt to be dangerous.
W's Pick: Iona. I have to pick the Gaels because it would just be a shame to have them not make the tournament. I mean, Scott Machado leads the country with 10.1 assists per game! You know the last time somebody finished the year with double-digit assists per game? Well I don't because ESPN's stat archive thing only goes back to 2001, but it's been at least that long.
SOUTHERN (friday):
This conference is pretty bad these days. Davidson is solid again after a few post-Curry down years, but teams like Charleston and Wofford are significantly worse than last year (losing Noah Dahlman and Andrew Goudelock will do that), and the bottom of the conference is the pits. Despite Wofford and Charleston's step backs, they're still the clear #2 and #3 in the league.
Favorite: Davidson. Unfortunately for the Wildcats, two losses in a league this down is bad, and one of those losses coming to Samford (RPI 266) is a killer, particularly with too many questionable losses and not enough good wins outside of that stunner at Kansas. Hard to believe a team that won in Kansas City needs to win their conference tournament to get into the NCAAs, but here we are.
Sleeper: UNC-Greensboro. Davidson is head and shoulders above everybody else so it's hard to pin down any other team with a chance to beat them, but how about the Spartans? After starting the season 2-14, they went on a 10-1 tear to win the North Division. Of course, they're now on a 3-game losing streak, but hey, I gotta pick somebody.
W's Pick: Davidson. Yep, another favorite. They're just so much better than everyone else. I mean, Kansas's losses this year are against Kentucky, Duke, Missouri, Iowa State, and Davidson.
In a really weird scenario I can never remember seeing before this close to selection Sunday there's almost nothing tonight that affects the bubble. The only two games that matter are Washington @ USC and Colorado @ Oregon, and that last one barely does. Every other game tonight involves teams that are already solidly in or are completely out. I guess you could toss the Michigan @ Illinois game in there and say if Illinois wins they still have a very outside shot, so I guess we'll do that and call it three games of note.
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