With the next 2-3 weeks really nothing but meaningless games it's doubtful I'll be writing any game previews or recaps. When somebody goes rogue transfer like Martin I'll hit it and when/if Diedhiou becomes eligible that's post worthy, but there probably won't be a whole lot of Gopher specific stuff until a wrap up/preview before conference play starts. For now, I'll do more fun stuff, and what's more fun than checking in on our chuckers for Power Ranking #2. Last week's rank in parenthesis.
1. TRE DEMPS, Northwestern (1). Demps remains the master, shooting 7-27 in his last three games with a 1-7 and 1-8 mixed in. On the season he's now taking 29% of Northwestern's shots when he's in the game with a 37% hit rate on 2s and 29% on 3s. His 2-1 assist-to-turnover rate is the only thing holding him back from being one of the most perfect chuckers in history. He's fifth in the conference in missed shots, and only attempts 11 per game. That's impressive. Bonus points because he usually becomes super good towards the end of close games. It's quite a super power.
2. MIKE WILLIAMS, Rutgers (8). I had no idea who Williams was at the beginning of the year, but he's really growing on me. Just a freshman, he burst onto the scene shooting 7-29 in his first four career games, and he hasn't gotten much better, shooting just 33% on twos and 24% on threes on the season. He's taking 25% of his team's shots when he's on the floor on a team with two clear senior leaders (Myles Mack and Kadeem Jack), and he's averaging more shots per game (8.8) than points (7.3) which is pretty fantastic. From the volume shooting to the inability to make any baskets, Williams is a really strong contender. And we get three more years. [2-6 on Tuesday. Don't get shy, Mike.]
3. TERRAN PETTEWAY, Nebraska (7). It's time to talk about Petteway. Fantastic player, obviously. He's averaging 21 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists, a steal, and a block per game this year, outstanding numbers. Make no mistake though - he's a chucker. He's taking 35% of the Huskers shots when he's on the floor (which ranks 24th in the entire country and 4th among major conference schools) and hitting 47% from two and 36% from three which puts his eFG% under 50%. He's also turning the ball over nearly 4 times per game, and threw up a game where he shot 5-18 and turned it over 8 times earlier this year. So yeah, he's a fantastic player, but he's also a big time chucker. Never forget.
4. CARLOS MORRIS, Minnesota (4). Morris has an unfair advantage because I get to watch almost all his games, but he definitely belongs. A couple of really efficient games have bumped his eFG% up to 46% which is getting a little too close to respectability for my tastes (combined 13-19 shooting in his last two is no good), but his refusal to pass the ball is as strong as ever. He does average 2.0 assists per game, but that's against 2.4 turnovers and considering he's a wing on a team that ranks 9th in the country with an assist on 66% of their made baskets that's not very impressive. Plus, just watch him sometime. [5-9 Monday. Continues to be efficient. Not going to drop him much until I see it against a good team, but we could really use more chucking here.]
5. KENDALL STEPHENS, Purdue (NR). I said at the beginning of the year that Purdue was set up to have at least one guy on this list, and right now it looks like Stephens is the guy. I had Bryson Scott on here for both of my first two lists, but he just doesn't shoot enough (though a 1-6 in 12 minutes recently is nice). Stephens, however, is starting to look like a more than worthy replacement. His shot percentage is a solid 26%, and though his eFG% is higher than I'd like at 52% he's started to put up much better chucker looking numbers with a 1-9, 2-11, and 2-7 in his last three outings. Add in that 70% of his attempts are from three and somehow he's shooting an insane 19% from two this year (4-22) and I think he's the Boiler for the job. [5-11 Monday. Good shot amount in 22 minutes. Could be a high riser.]
6. KADEEM JACK, Rutgers (NR). Jack has always been a high usage player for the Scarlet Knights, and he's kept it up this year (31% shots) but he's added a new wrinkle to his game - he can't make anything. He missed the first two games of the year but has made up for it with some seriously prolific chucking including an 8-23 performance against Vandy and a ridiculous 3-15 vs. Seton Hall, leading to a 37% shooting percentage and a scoring average more than 2 points lower than last season. He's never been much for passing (his average of 1.5 assists per game this year is a career high) but his season total of 9 assists vs. 17 turnovers is worth noting. If his shot doesn't come back he could challenge for the crown. [3-9 Tuesday with 7 turnovers to boot. Something could be brewing here.]
7. BRYANT MCINTOSH, Northwestern (9). When I put McIntosh on here last time I said I figured he wouldn't last long. So far, at least, I was wrong. Since my last post (5 games) he's shot 15-48 including a 1-10 game against Georgia Tech, and I just can't ignore that kind of non-production no matter how good he is at passing - and he is, averaging 5 assists per game (against 2.5 TOs) with an assist rate ranking in the top 40 in the country. He's still taking 23% of his team's shots when he's on the floor, and as long as he keeps up that volume while being unable to actually put the ball in the basket it'll be tough to keep him off this list. There are plenty of good distributors who are terrible shooters, most of them don't heave the ball at the hoop this often. And that's why he's a chucker.
8. KAMERON CHATMAN, Michigan (NR). Another freshman who just DGAF, the most impressive thing about Chatman is how he's 6-7 and he just hates the paint. Loathes it. Treats it like my kids treat the floor when they do that thing where the floor is hot lava. I say that because I perusing the sweet site hoop-math.com, and Chatman has taken 6% of his shots at the rim this year. I will just tell you that is insanely low. For reference there is no Gopher under 10%, and no other Wolverine under 15% - it's a really low number, especially for someone who is 6-7. I also noticed that 100% of his baskets at the rim are assisted, which means he never drives, he just stands around and chucks jumpers, like when he shot 0-6 in their hilariously awesome loss to NJIT. On the season he's now at 34% on twos and 21% on threes, and if he continues to be allergic to the rim he could be one to watch. [0-2 Tuesday. [Shot amount is unfortunate, but at least he missed them both.]
9. BRANDON TAYLOR, Penn State (NR). Taylor's actually similar to Chatman in that he hates scoring in the paint too (10.5%), but he has fewer excuses. He's not a skinny freshman like Chatman, he's a 6-6, 225 lb. junior who averages 6.4 rebounds per game, so it's not like he's incapable of playing in the paint, he just doesn't want to. Now, granted, this can be a valid plan and has worked for many players in the past. It does not, however, generally work when you're shooting just 29% from three (15-51) especially when you're taking more threes than twos. Nothing new for Taylor since in his three seasons he's averaged 3.5 or more 3 attempts per game each year and failed to ever break better than 32% accuracy. I really should have had him on the list earlier.
10. JARROD UTHOFF, Iowa (NR). Uthoff likes to shoot (25% shot percentage) and he's not particularly horrible at it (40% twos, 39% threes) but his eFG is still just 48% so he qualifies, and he deserves mention on this list because of that horrendous 40% twos for a 6-9 player. I checked a handful of other teams and the only other guy who combines that kind of volume and ineptitude with that height is Kadeem Jack, number 6 on this list. Special shout out to his 2-13 game against North Carolina, though in fairness he also grabbed 11 rebounds. I don't see Uthoff sticking on this list for very long, but I wanted to recognize him while he's not hot. [6-11 Tuesday. Vs. Alcorn State. So meh.]
Notable feats in chucking around the country:
1. CAZMON HAYES, Delaware. If we are looking for the best chucker in the nation, we might not have to look any further. Just look at this line: 15.4ppg, 29% field goal percentage, 0.7 assists per game. Glorious. He has a 3-18 and a 4-21 shooting on the year. Also a 6-21. His best shooting game he went 4-9 and I assume he must have been in foul trouble to only get off 9 shots. He has five assists the entire season. He's shooting 9 threes per game despite hitting just 29%. Even better, last year he only averaged 10 minutes and two shots per game. Get yours, Caz, get yours.
2. KYLE WILTJER, Gonzaga. Wiltjer transferred from Kentucky in order to get out under the shackles of a tightly called and tightly run Calipari offense, and he's certainly had free reign to chuck away since becoming a Zag (35% shot percentage). Never was that more evident than against Georgia when he put up 26 shots. It's really hard to shoot 26 times in one game, especially when your team shoots 52. Some quick math tells me that's half the team's attempts, which I don't think is how most offenses are supposed to be run. He did make 14 which is not chucker like, but when you take half your team's shots and put up the second most attempts of any player in a game this year (behind DJ Newbill who took 33 in a 2OT game) it's worth noting.
3. DAMON LYNN, NJIT. This is a pretty good one, because Lynn had a god awful chucker level game against Marquette not long after the last Chucker Update, shooting 4-20 with five turnovers in a game the Highlanders lost by just five, a game they might have won if Lynn makes a few more shots. Then came the big upset win over Michigan which was pretty awesome, and Lynn is the hero, hitting 7-16 (6-10 on threes) and coming up huge, nailing that huge, soul crushing, monster three pointer with about two minutes left when Michigan looked like they might be about to retake the game. Chucker redemption at its finest.
4. MARCELLUS BARKSDALE, IUPUI. Though he did put up back-to-back performances worthy of a call out (4-14 and 2-11 shooting), he's mainly just here because I saw his name pop up in my top secret chucker formula and actually said "holy shit" out loud. What a sweet name. Marcellus Wallace and Avon Barksdale had a baby, and he loves throwing the ball in the basic direction of the hoop. Also, I love Pulp Fiction (duh) and I just finished season 4 of The Wire so I'm still in that "holy crap you guys The Wire is so good I can't believe I never watched it" mode. Seriously though, holy crap you guys The Wire is so good I can't believe I never watched it.
5. PHIL FORTE, Oklahoma State. Phil has carried on the Forte tradition of being an excellent college basketball player started by Joe and Jason and probably Matt. He's not here because he's a terrible shooter, because he's generally pretty good. He is, however, a 3-point bomber with two thirds of his shots coming from behind the arc at a clip of over 8 attempts per game. He's around a 40% shooter from there in his career so he's a pretty valuable weapon. However with a weapon like that, occasionally things can go drastically wrong. Forte fell apart against South Carolina on Saturday, going 1-14 from the field and 1-10 from three as the Cowboys got blasted 75-49. It was pretty much disaster all around as the team shot sub 25% for the game. It is hard to win that way.
Showing posts with label Tre Demps. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tre Demps. Show all posts
Tuesday, December 9, 2014
Thursday, November 20, 2014
B10 Chucker Power Rankings, Week 1
Big Ten Chucker Power Rankings after (roughly) Week 1. This was tough, because a lot of the high volume shooters are also very efficient so far because most of these teams are playing cupcakes right now, and a lot of the guys I tabbed in my preseason preview as ones to watch are either not shooting as much as they should or are making too many shots. This list looks very different than the preseason list, and I suspect a lot different than the final list as well. That being said, we need a starting point so here we go. Preseason Rank in parenthesis.
1. Tre Demps, Northwestern (1). No change at the top, as Demps has put up an 0-7 shooting night and a 4-13 shooting night, putting him at a robust 23% eFG% while taking 27% of his team's shots when he's on the floor. The man is a machine. Just think if he turned the ball over too. Alas, he takes care of it with just one TO so far this year and one of the best turnover rates in the country. I guess you can't have everything.
2. Bryn Forbes, Michigan State (NR). Skyrocketing in from nowhere is Forbes, who I totally missed in my preview because I forgot about him transferring in from Cleveland State. He was known as a shooter but his accuracy seems to have deserted him. He opened in grand style by shooting 1-8 (1-6 from three) vs. Navy and then followed that up with a 3-9 (3-8 from three) against Duke, managing to avoid picking up a single assist in the process. Forbes is tied for 7th in the conference in missed field goals despite coming off the bench. You just can't teach that.
3. Bryson Scott, Purdue (4). It wouldn't hurt him to shoot more often with just 9 shot attempts through two games, but at the same time that's 27% of his team's shots while he's on the floor so I guess you can't ask for too much more. No complaints whatsoever about his inefficiency though, as he's made just 3 of those shot attempts while turning the ball over five times versus just one assist. Stellar. I put Forbes ahead of him because of the volume shooting which is the #1 characteristic of chucking, but Scott has real potential if he'd just get more aggressive.
4. Carlos Morris, Minnesota (NR). Probably should have seen this coming since he's a JuCo who was going to be handed a starting role and a bunch of minutes. He's taking 26.5% of the shots when he's on the court and is shooting just 6-19, chipping in with 3 assists versus 2 turnovers. Plus, and you can't quantify this unfortunately, but watching him play both games this year (plus the exhibition) and seeing him get lost defensively over and over again is just bonus points.
5. John Johnson, Penn State (2). He's not shooting as much as I'd like with just 11 attempts through two games and a sub 20% shot percentage, but on the bright side he still can't hit the broad side of a barn if he fell out of a boat. He's made just 3 of those 11 attempts for a 27% shooting percentage, and you just can't argue with brickability like that. He needs to get himself over that 20% of shots barrier, or he's going to have to start dropping.
6. Melo Trimble, Maryland (NR). I'm always impressed by chucking point guards who turn it over as much as they assist their teammates (3 to 4 for him), not to mention averaging just 2.0 assists per game in 25 minutes when you're a point guard. Add in taking 26% of your team's shots while you're on the floor despite going just 6-17 this year and you've got yourself a nice little chucker. Could settle down since he's a freshman and all, but that's an impressive debut.
7. Terran Petteway, Nebraska (10). Even though Pettaway has been effective, averaging 24 points per game on 47% shooting, he simply has to be here for volume reasons. Petteway is taking 43% of Nebraska's shots when he's on the floor, a number that is simply unheard of. It puts him seventh on the leaderboard this season and he's one of only four players from a major conference (1 of 2 if you don't consider the American or Mountain West major) to be north of 40% shot percentage. That 43% would be an all-time record (dating back 2004, kenpom.com) for anyone in any conference. His 1.0 assist per game average vs. 2.0 turnovers doesn't hurt, either. I mean, his chucker score per game ins a full 50% higher than the #2 guy. That means something.
8. Mike Williams, Rutgers (NR). I don't know who this guy is but I stumbled across him and he's taken a staggering 30.2% of his team's shots when he's on the floor (if you remember from the preview it's rare to cross 30% in a major conference) and has hit just five out of fifteen attempts. I'm also very encouraged by his 1-7 game against Fairleigh Dickinson. Could be a real sleeper.
9. Bryant McIntosh, Northwestern (NR). Say you're some nerd freshman, what do you do when the basketball season first starts up? If you're McIntosh you just say bombs away and fire that ball in the direction of the hoop. He shot 5-11 in first game (pretty good) but put up a 2-10 in game 2, and through two games leads the Wildcats, a team with Tre Demps, in shot attempts. He's only taken five of his 21 attempts from three so far, so he's either a long two machine or a reckless driver - either way I like it. He's down the list because he has a really good assist to turnover ratio (to good to be a real chucker) so I suspect he'll fall of this list soon, but I wanted to give some recognition because that's some impressive work.
10. Denzel Valentine and Travis Trice, MSU (8). I treated them as one in the preview because I wasn't sure which would emerge as the chucker (if any) and I'm still not sure because they're both showing half the chucker traits, but neither is all the way there. Trice is shooting a ton, 30% shot percentage, but he's also making most of them and has a great assist to turnover ratio. Valentine can't shoot at all this year so far, but he needs to shoot a bit more to take over this spot as his own. Odds are this spot become's Valentine's on his own sooner rather than later, but I don't want to dismiss Trice just yet simply because he's jacking up so many shots.
Other notable feats of chucking around the nation:
1. Zay Jackson, SE Louisiana. The six-foot junior guard set a high bar in the first game of the year, scoring 16 points on 6-24 shooting (3-13 from three) with 4 assists and 8 (8!) turnovers. According to my highly proprietary formula (no, I'm not only basing these lists on that formula) Jackson's score of 102.5 is the highest of the season by a wide margin. If anybody can beat this, well, wow. Jackson followed that up with a 2-8 with 9 (9?) turnover performance so he's really one to keep an eye on.
2. Rashad Vaughn, UNLV. There were plenty of more egregious games than what Vaughn did his first week, but hey, if I took all the worst games it would pretty much just be guys nobody has heard of and that's no fun. Neither game is all that horrendous by itself, but back-to-backs of 8-18 and 7-19 shooting with two turnovers versus three total assists is setting a nice baseline. He also ranks 8th in the nation at percentage of his teams shots taken when he's on the floor at 43%. At some point this year he's going to put up an epic stinker. It's coming.
3. Joseph Young, Oregon. Read this conference preview. Or just scroll down to the Most Frustrating Player part. Or just trust me when I tell you that a near perfect chucking storm has been created around Young, with a guy who averaged 13 shots per game last season suddenly finding himself in a situation where the team has been completely gutted by graduations, transfers, and dudes kicked off the team and he has no choice but to shoot constantly, and he's going to love it. He's basically the Kobe Bryant of the Pacific Northwest and it showed on Monday when he shot 7-23 including 1-12 from three (1-12!) with five turnovers (and 4 assists). We'll probably see his name here a few times this year.
4. Wesley Person, Jr, Troy. Oh my god it makes me so happy there's a Wes Person Junior, and even better he made this list. He probably shouldn't quite make the list considering his most chuckery game this year (of 2) was a 5-14 shooting performance where he also made 10 free throws and scored 25 points, but hey, it's Wes Person's kid, he needs to be on here. Also he's shooting a cool 32% on the year, 21 of his 28 attempts this year are from three, and his last game he had 0 rebounds, 0 assists, 0 steals, and 0 blocks in 37 minutes. I'd say he qualifies.
5. Wayne Sparrow, UMBC. This one's great because it's who the Gophers play Saturday night, so maybe we're in for a chucker treat. He put up a fantastic line in their game against Loyola Maryland on Wednesday: 4-19 shooting (2-10 from 3) with 4 turnovers vs. 1 assist. That's quality work. He only took 8 shots in their opener and only averaged 4 shots per game last season so this one was quite an aberration. Fluke game, or birth of a brand new all-star chucker? Hopefully we find out Saturday, and hopefully it's the latter.
1. Tre Demps, Northwestern (1). No change at the top, as Demps has put up an 0-7 shooting night and a 4-13 shooting night, putting him at a robust 23% eFG% while taking 27% of his team's shots when he's on the floor. The man is a machine. Just think if he turned the ball over too. Alas, he takes care of it with just one TO so far this year and one of the best turnover rates in the country. I guess you can't have everything.
2. Bryn Forbes, Michigan State (NR). Skyrocketing in from nowhere is Forbes, who I totally missed in my preview because I forgot about him transferring in from Cleveland State. He was known as a shooter but his accuracy seems to have deserted him. He opened in grand style by shooting 1-8 (1-6 from three) vs. Navy and then followed that up with a 3-9 (3-8 from three) against Duke, managing to avoid picking up a single assist in the process. Forbes is tied for 7th in the conference in missed field goals despite coming off the bench. You just can't teach that.
3. Bryson Scott, Purdue (4). It wouldn't hurt him to shoot more often with just 9 shot attempts through two games, but at the same time that's 27% of his team's shots while he's on the floor so I guess you can't ask for too much more. No complaints whatsoever about his inefficiency though, as he's made just 3 of those shot attempts while turning the ball over five times versus just one assist. Stellar. I put Forbes ahead of him because of the volume shooting which is the #1 characteristic of chucking, but Scott has real potential if he'd just get more aggressive.
4. Carlos Morris, Minnesota (NR). Probably should have seen this coming since he's a JuCo who was going to be handed a starting role and a bunch of minutes. He's taking 26.5% of the shots when he's on the court and is shooting just 6-19, chipping in with 3 assists versus 2 turnovers. Plus, and you can't quantify this unfortunately, but watching him play both games this year (plus the exhibition) and seeing him get lost defensively over and over again is just bonus points.
5. John Johnson, Penn State (2). He's not shooting as much as I'd like with just 11 attempts through two games and a sub 20% shot percentage, but on the bright side he still can't hit the broad side of a barn if he fell out of a boat. He's made just 3 of those 11 attempts for a 27% shooting percentage, and you just can't argue with brickability like that. He needs to get himself over that 20% of shots barrier, or he's going to have to start dropping.
6. Melo Trimble, Maryland (NR). I'm always impressed by chucking point guards who turn it over as much as they assist their teammates (3 to 4 for him), not to mention averaging just 2.0 assists per game in 25 minutes when you're a point guard. Add in taking 26% of your team's shots while you're on the floor despite going just 6-17 this year and you've got yourself a nice little chucker. Could settle down since he's a freshman and all, but that's an impressive debut.
7. Terran Petteway, Nebraska (10). Even though Pettaway has been effective, averaging 24 points per game on 47% shooting, he simply has to be here for volume reasons. Petteway is taking 43% of Nebraska's shots when he's on the floor, a number that is simply unheard of. It puts him seventh on the leaderboard this season and he's one of only four players from a major conference (1 of 2 if you don't consider the American or Mountain West major) to be north of 40% shot percentage. That 43% would be an all-time record (dating back 2004, kenpom.com) for anyone in any conference. His 1.0 assist per game average vs. 2.0 turnovers doesn't hurt, either. I mean, his chucker score per game ins a full 50% higher than the #2 guy. That means something.
8. Mike Williams, Rutgers (NR). I don't know who this guy is but I stumbled across him and he's taken a staggering 30.2% of his team's shots when he's on the floor (if you remember from the preview it's rare to cross 30% in a major conference) and has hit just five out of fifteen attempts. I'm also very encouraged by his 1-7 game against Fairleigh Dickinson. Could be a real sleeper.
9. Bryant McIntosh, Northwestern (NR). Say you're some nerd freshman, what do you do when the basketball season first starts up? If you're McIntosh you just say bombs away and fire that ball in the direction of the hoop. He shot 5-11 in first game (pretty good) but put up a 2-10 in game 2, and through two games leads the Wildcats, a team with Tre Demps, in shot attempts. He's only taken five of his 21 attempts from three so far, so he's either a long two machine or a reckless driver - either way I like it. He's down the list because he has a really good assist to turnover ratio (to good to be a real chucker) so I suspect he'll fall of this list soon, but I wanted to give some recognition because that's some impressive work.
10. Denzel Valentine and Travis Trice, MSU (8). I treated them as one in the preview because I wasn't sure which would emerge as the chucker (if any) and I'm still not sure because they're both showing half the chucker traits, but neither is all the way there. Trice is shooting a ton, 30% shot percentage, but he's also making most of them and has a great assist to turnover ratio. Valentine can't shoot at all this year so far, but he needs to shoot a bit more to take over this spot as his own. Odds are this spot become's Valentine's on his own sooner rather than later, but I don't want to dismiss Trice just yet simply because he's jacking up so many shots.
Other notable feats of chucking around the nation:
1. Zay Jackson, SE Louisiana. The six-foot junior guard set a high bar in the first game of the year, scoring 16 points on 6-24 shooting (3-13 from three) with 4 assists and 8 (8!) turnovers. According to my highly proprietary formula (no, I'm not only basing these lists on that formula) Jackson's score of 102.5 is the highest of the season by a wide margin. If anybody can beat this, well, wow. Jackson followed that up with a 2-8 with 9 (9?) turnover performance so he's really one to keep an eye on.
2. Rashad Vaughn, UNLV. There were plenty of more egregious games than what Vaughn did his first week, but hey, if I took all the worst games it would pretty much just be guys nobody has heard of and that's no fun. Neither game is all that horrendous by itself, but back-to-backs of 8-18 and 7-19 shooting with two turnovers versus three total assists is setting a nice baseline. He also ranks 8th in the nation at percentage of his teams shots taken when he's on the floor at 43%. At some point this year he's going to put up an epic stinker. It's coming.
3. Joseph Young, Oregon. Read this conference preview. Or just scroll down to the Most Frustrating Player part. Or just trust me when I tell you that a near perfect chucking storm has been created around Young, with a guy who averaged 13 shots per game last season suddenly finding himself in a situation where the team has been completely gutted by graduations, transfers, and dudes kicked off the team and he has no choice but to shoot constantly, and he's going to love it. He's basically the Kobe Bryant of the Pacific Northwest and it showed on Monday when he shot 7-23 including 1-12 from three (1-12!) with five turnovers (and 4 assists). We'll probably see his name here a few times this year.
4. Wesley Person, Jr, Troy. Oh my god it makes me so happy there's a Wes Person Junior, and even better he made this list. He probably shouldn't quite make the list considering his most chuckery game this year (of 2) was a 5-14 shooting performance where he also made 10 free throws and scored 25 points, but hey, it's Wes Person's kid, he needs to be on here. Also he's shooting a cool 32% on the year, 21 of his 28 attempts this year are from three, and his last game he had 0 rebounds, 0 assists, 0 steals, and 0 blocks in 37 minutes. I'd say he qualifies.
5. Wayne Sparrow, UMBC. This one's great because it's who the Gophers play Saturday night, so maybe we're in for a chucker treat. He put up a fantastic line in their game against Loyola Maryland on Wednesday: 4-19 shooting (2-10 from 3) with 4 turnovers vs. 1 assist. That's quality work. He only took 8 shots in their opener and only averaged 4 shots per game last season so this one was quite an aberration. Fluke game, or birth of a brand new all-star chucker? Hopefully we find out Saturday, and hopefully it's the latter.
Tuesday, November 11, 2014
Big 10 Chucker Power Ranking Preview
Hi friends. It's time we do a little something new, and a little something fun here at DWG, and that's celebrate my love of chuckers. Who doesn't love the guy who comes in the game for 11 minutes and gets up 15 shots, making 3? Who doesn't love the guard who thinks he has to do everything for his team and ends up with 7 assists and 90 turnovers on the season? It's annoying when you're playing with that guy at the park or the Y, it's maddening when he's on your team, but when it's an opposing player? Good freaking times, as anyone who remembers watching Morgan State's Reggie Holmes will remember.
To quickly recap, Holmes played four years at shooting guard for Morgan State and lived up to the position's name. He averaged 15.4 points per game in his career, including 21.4 his senior season. He did this while shooting a dismal 38% from the floor over those four years, which yes, means he shot the ball a shit load - 15.8 times per game his senior year and 12.1 over his career, good enough to finish 3rd All-Time in career MEAC shot attempts after finishing top 3 in each of his final three years. He topped it off by refusing to pass, putting up just 76 career assists in four seasons for a whopping 0.6 per game average. This versus 156 turnovers which is actually a really good number for someone who handled the ball that much but it looks silly compared to his assist number. Reggie Holmes might have been the most perfect chucker ever. We're looking for the next one.
This season I'll be doing a ranking each week of the top chuckers. I haven't decided if it'll be a week-to-week thing or a running season long ranking, but likely it will be a blend of both. I also was trying to come up with some kind of chucker formula, but I realized it's the kind of thing you can't really define, you just know it when you see it - like a penguin. Anyway, there are four things that go into making a really good chucker, in descending order of importance:
1. Takes a ton of shots. A ton. It doesn't matter if the guy plays 35 minutes or 10, it's all about how many times you can jack that pill towards the goal.
2. Is a terrible shooter. Someone who shoots a ton but makes a respectable amount is just a good player. It's gotta be someone who just clangs clangs clangs bricks all over the place who makes you say geez we should gather up all these bricks and build a shelter for the homeless so your mother has a place to stay tonight. Seriously, I want your mother and sister out of my house.
3. Hates passing. Yogi Ferrell shoots the ball like a chucker, but he ruins the whole thing by passing a lot (and actually he's a little too accurate throwing the ball in the direction of the hoop to really qualify). You need a guy who feels a little bit physically ill when he gives up the ball. If you see a guy refuse to pass out of a double team in a situation where the other team is trying to foul because he wants those free throws and those precious, precious points you may be looking at a primo chucker.
4. Turns the ball over a lot. This is the least important of the four, but it still counts. A lot of chuckers don't turn the ball over much because they basically shoot it before they catch it, and most chuckers love that ball more than their mother so they're loathe to give it up to an opponent (or a teammate). But there are others who rack up the TOs by trying to dribble through people or make fancy stupid passes. Those guys are sweet.
It's rare to find someone who hits all four but we're going to try.
So in this preview I'm going to cover your potential top chuckers in the Big Ten. Although the power rankings will cover all of college basketball I'm just going to do our favorite conference here because seriously there are a lot of teams in D-I.
I looked all the players last year and dug out those who took more than 20% of their team's shots when they were on the floor (so more than their share) and who put up an effective field goal percentage of less than 50% (metric to smooth in 3-pointers since 50% from 2 and 33% from 3 are equivalent). I didn't use true shooting percentage since it folds in free throws and I don't want to miss out on someone good/bad who shoots 95% from the line or something. Plus most chuckers are good free throwers because they want all the points, and those are good ways to get easy points.
So without further ado, here are my top candidates for B10 Chucker of the Year Award.
1. TRE DEMPS, Northwestern (26.3% shots, 45.7 eFG%). Nearly a perfect chucker, with that great chucker mentality that he can make every shot, no shot is a bad shot, and that his range is infinity (note: it's actually less than that). With Drew Crawford gone there'll be even more shots available for him to poach. If he can push his shot rate to 30% and continue to convert at the same levels the award is his for the taking. The prohibitive favorite to win.
BEST GAME LY: 5pts on 1-10 shooting (0-5 from 3) with 2 assists and 2 turnovers vs. Penn State.
2. JOHN JOHNSON, Penn State (22.6% shots, 45.6% eFG%). He transferred into Penn State last year from Pitt with a reputation as a shooter, and though he shot plenty when he was on the court he didn't shoot well, hitting just 32% from three and 44% from two. With Tim Frazier gone he should see a few more minutes, and though he shot more twos than threes last year (69 vs. 66) hopefully he'll take on more of the perimeter shooting burden and throw up a bunch of bricks.
BEST GAME LY: 3pts on 1-8 shooting with 2 assists and 2 turnovers vs. Siena.
3. MARC LOVING, Ohio State (23.2% shots, 43.2% eFG%). He's a bit under the radar since he played just 11 minutes per game last year, but those chucker statistics are sweet. With LaQuinton Ross (31% of shots), Lenzelle Smith (23%), and Aaron Craft (15%) gone there are a whole lot of shots available this season. The Buckeyes have a lot of other talent, both returning and new, so there's no guarantee he morphs into a chucker supreme, but here's hoping he decides he needs to be THE MAN and does just that.
BEST GAME LY: No one game stands out since his minutes were so limited, but he did go on an 0-12 three pointer streak mid-conference spanning 14 games.
4. BRYSON SCOTT, Purdue (23.1% shots, 37.4% eFG%). Purdue is an interesting case seeing as they had six players last year who fit the chucker criteria (which explains why they were so terrible). The good news is three of those six are now gone, so somebody is going to be a fixture in the chucker rankings and the best bet is Scott and his horrendous 36% 2-point field goal percentage. He didn't shoot many threes last year (just 13) and hit a respectable 39%, so here's hoping he decides to shoot more and does it more poorly. That eFG% is a thing of beauty, worst among all the qualified chuckers last season.
BEST GAME LY: 13pts on 4-13 shooting with 3 assists and 5 turnovers vs. Washington State
5. RAYVONTE RICE, Illinois (28.2% shots, 48.1% eFG%). I don't love having him on here since he does so much for that team, but his chucker numbers are fantastic, not to mention a pathetically low assist rate for a guard who has the ball in his hands so much (11%, 1.5 per game). With all the talent the Illini have already and the 3 new key pieces there might be too many mouths to feed for a true chucker to emerge, but I have faith that his chuckerish instincts will prevail. It's really too bad Tracy Abrams blew out his knee, because he had even better numbers (24% shots, 38% eFG%). That's one to stash away for your chucker keeper league.
BEST GAME LY: 19pts on 7-21 (1-5 on threes) shooting with 1 turnover vs. Wisconsin, or 8pts on 2-11 (1-4 on threes) shooting with 2 assists and 2 turnovers vs. Northwestern, or 10 points on 3-13 (1-5 threes) shooting with 1 assist and 2 turnovers vs. Nebraska.
6. PETER JOK, Iowa (25.1% shots, 48.4% eFG%). Another off the bench chucker, but this one doesn't have as clear a path to more playing time since Iowa's guards are all back so he'll have to do his damage in a limited time - which he can. Twice last season he had more field goal attempts than minutes played in a game, which is both terrifying and admirable.
BEST GAME LY: 3pts on 1-6 shooting (1-4 from 3) in 5 minutes (5 minutes!) vs. Villanova.
7. DRE HOLLINS, Minnesota (24.7% shots, 47.0% eFG%). Don't pretend like this can't happen, I mean look at those chucker stats - they're legit. Last year Hollins got a bit too comfy shooting jumpers instead of trying to get to the rim, and though it's easy to believe it was mostly injury related, what if it wasn't? What if he decides to let Mathieu and Mason do the driving and he just wants to fire away from the outisde? He finished out the year (last 6 games) 14-63, which is 22%, and put up some chuckeriffic games in that stretch. I hope he falls off this list quickly.
BEST GAME LY: 8pts on 2-14 shooting (2-7 from 3) with no assists and 2 turnovers vs. Wisconsin
8. TRAVIS TRICE (18.4% shots, 54.8% eFG%) or DENZEL VALENTINE (16.9% shots, 48.9% eFG%), Michigan State. Keith Appling, Adreian Payne, and Gary Harris are all gone which means someone has to step up offensively and both the freshmen and most of the returnees are pretty meh. There are three clear guys who need to have big years and that's Trice, Valentine, and Branden Dawson. Dawson is too efficient to end up on this list so it's either going to be Trice or Valentine. Neither qualified last year under my completely arbitrary criteria, but the team dynamic is so different I have faith one of these two is going to become a trainwreck. Smart money is on Valentine since he just seems more likely to become overconfident, but it's pretty close to 50/50. OMG what if it's both? That would be awesome, as Chris Farley once said.
BEST GAMES LY: Trice - not a high volume shooter, but 0pts on 0-5 shooting (0-3 from 3) with 2 assists and 3 turnovers in just 16 minutes vs. Georgetown shows some potential. Valentine - also not high volume last year, but I do like his 3pts on 1-6 shooting (1-5 from 3) with 4 assists and 5 turnovers vs. Illinois game.
9. STANFORD ROBINSON, Indiana (22.6% shots, 45.8 eFG%). Yogi Ferrell is gonna shoot a ton because Yogi be Yogi and Crean be Crean and there's a bunch of other talent on the perimeter coming in so he could be squeezed for minutes, but Robinson has some real potential, especially if he shoots more threes (3-16 last year). He shoots more twos than I'd like (149 vs. 16) and is a little too efficient (48%), hence the low rating, but getting suspended for failing a drug test is a good start to the year. I don't know that drugs and chucking correlate, but it seems like it's probably not a bad sign.
BEST GAME LY: 0pts on 0-7 shooting with 2 assists and 3 turnovers vs. Purdue. No one should have had their worst game (best game) vs. Purdue last year.
10. TERRAN PETTAWAY, Nebraska (32% shots, 48.2% eFG%). Seems pretty silly to have him here given he's a top candidate for player of the year in the conference, but it's hard to ignore that shot % number of 32%, which is the kind of number usually reserved for small conference stars. The only major conference guys with a higher shot % last year were Marshall Henderson (maybe the best chucker in history) and Jabari Parker (just dominated the ball, but efficiently). Nebraska's rotation should be relatively unchanged this season, but the guys lost did shoot a ton so it's possible Pettaway takes his shot percentage number into another stratosphere. Considering most of his value comes from his scoring if he has a bad shooting year man it could be epic.
BEST GAME LY: 13pts on 5-18 shooting (1-6 from 3) with 3 assists and 3 turnovers vs. Illinois.
This is gonna be great.
To quickly recap, Holmes played four years at shooting guard for Morgan State and lived up to the position's name. He averaged 15.4 points per game in his career, including 21.4 his senior season. He did this while shooting a dismal 38% from the floor over those four years, which yes, means he shot the ball a shit load - 15.8 times per game his senior year and 12.1 over his career, good enough to finish 3rd All-Time in career MEAC shot attempts after finishing top 3 in each of his final three years. He topped it off by refusing to pass, putting up just 76 career assists in four seasons for a whopping 0.6 per game average. This versus 156 turnovers which is actually a really good number for someone who handled the ball that much but it looks silly compared to his assist number. Reggie Holmes might have been the most perfect chucker ever. We're looking for the next one.
This season I'll be doing a ranking each week of the top chuckers. I haven't decided if it'll be a week-to-week thing or a running season long ranking, but likely it will be a blend of both. I also was trying to come up with some kind of chucker formula, but I realized it's the kind of thing you can't really define, you just know it when you see it - like a penguin. Anyway, there are four things that go into making a really good chucker, in descending order of importance:
1. Takes a ton of shots. A ton. It doesn't matter if the guy plays 35 minutes or 10, it's all about how many times you can jack that pill towards the goal.
2. Is a terrible shooter. Someone who shoots a ton but makes a respectable amount is just a good player. It's gotta be someone who just clangs clangs clangs bricks all over the place who makes you say geez we should gather up all these bricks and build a shelter for the homeless so your mother has a place to stay tonight. Seriously, I want your mother and sister out of my house.
3. Hates passing. Yogi Ferrell shoots the ball like a chucker, but he ruins the whole thing by passing a lot (and actually he's a little too accurate throwing the ball in the direction of the hoop to really qualify). You need a guy who feels a little bit physically ill when he gives up the ball. If you see a guy refuse to pass out of a double team in a situation where the other team is trying to foul because he wants those free throws and those precious, precious points you may be looking at a primo chucker.
4. Turns the ball over a lot. This is the least important of the four, but it still counts. A lot of chuckers don't turn the ball over much because they basically shoot it before they catch it, and most chuckers love that ball more than their mother so they're loathe to give it up to an opponent (or a teammate). But there are others who rack up the TOs by trying to dribble through people or make fancy stupid passes. Those guys are sweet.
It's rare to find someone who hits all four but we're going to try.
So in this preview I'm going to cover your potential top chuckers in the Big Ten. Although the power rankings will cover all of college basketball I'm just going to do our favorite conference here because seriously there are a lot of teams in D-I.
I looked all the players last year and dug out those who took more than 20% of their team's shots when they were on the floor (so more than their share) and who put up an effective field goal percentage of less than 50% (metric to smooth in 3-pointers since 50% from 2 and 33% from 3 are equivalent). I didn't use true shooting percentage since it folds in free throws and I don't want to miss out on someone good/bad who shoots 95% from the line or something. Plus most chuckers are good free throwers because they want all the points, and those are good ways to get easy points.
So without further ado, here are my top candidates for B10 Chucker of the Year Award.
1. TRE DEMPS, Northwestern (26.3% shots, 45.7 eFG%). Nearly a perfect chucker, with that great chucker mentality that he can make every shot, no shot is a bad shot, and that his range is infinity (note: it's actually less than that). With Drew Crawford gone there'll be even more shots available for him to poach. If he can push his shot rate to 30% and continue to convert at the same levels the award is his for the taking. The prohibitive favorite to win.
BEST GAME LY: 5pts on 1-10 shooting (0-5 from 3) with 2 assists and 2 turnovers vs. Penn State.
2. JOHN JOHNSON, Penn State (22.6% shots, 45.6% eFG%). He transferred into Penn State last year from Pitt with a reputation as a shooter, and though he shot plenty when he was on the court he didn't shoot well, hitting just 32% from three and 44% from two. With Tim Frazier gone he should see a few more minutes, and though he shot more twos than threes last year (69 vs. 66) hopefully he'll take on more of the perimeter shooting burden and throw up a bunch of bricks.
BEST GAME LY: 3pts on 1-8 shooting with 2 assists and 2 turnovers vs. Siena.
3. MARC LOVING, Ohio State (23.2% shots, 43.2% eFG%). He's a bit under the radar since he played just 11 minutes per game last year, but those chucker statistics are sweet. With LaQuinton Ross (31% of shots), Lenzelle Smith (23%), and Aaron Craft (15%) gone there are a whole lot of shots available this season. The Buckeyes have a lot of other talent, both returning and new, so there's no guarantee he morphs into a chucker supreme, but here's hoping he decides he needs to be THE MAN and does just that.
BEST GAME LY: No one game stands out since his minutes were so limited, but he did go on an 0-12 three pointer streak mid-conference spanning 14 games.
4. BRYSON SCOTT, Purdue (23.1% shots, 37.4% eFG%). Purdue is an interesting case seeing as they had six players last year who fit the chucker criteria (which explains why they were so terrible). The good news is three of those six are now gone, so somebody is going to be a fixture in the chucker rankings and the best bet is Scott and his horrendous 36% 2-point field goal percentage. He didn't shoot many threes last year (just 13) and hit a respectable 39%, so here's hoping he decides to shoot more and does it more poorly. That eFG% is a thing of beauty, worst among all the qualified chuckers last season.
BEST GAME LY: 13pts on 4-13 shooting with 3 assists and 5 turnovers vs. Washington State
5. RAYVONTE RICE, Illinois (28.2% shots, 48.1% eFG%). I don't love having him on here since he does so much for that team, but his chucker numbers are fantastic, not to mention a pathetically low assist rate for a guard who has the ball in his hands so much (11%, 1.5 per game). With all the talent the Illini have already and the 3 new key pieces there might be too many mouths to feed for a true chucker to emerge, but I have faith that his chuckerish instincts will prevail. It's really too bad Tracy Abrams blew out his knee, because he had even better numbers (24% shots, 38% eFG%). That's one to stash away for your chucker keeper league.
BEST GAME LY: 19pts on 7-21 (1-5 on threes) shooting with 1 turnover vs. Wisconsin, or 8pts on 2-11 (1-4 on threes) shooting with 2 assists and 2 turnovers vs. Northwestern, or 10 points on 3-13 (1-5 threes) shooting with 1 assist and 2 turnovers vs. Nebraska.
6. PETER JOK, Iowa (25.1% shots, 48.4% eFG%). Another off the bench chucker, but this one doesn't have as clear a path to more playing time since Iowa's guards are all back so he'll have to do his damage in a limited time - which he can. Twice last season he had more field goal attempts than minutes played in a game, which is both terrifying and admirable.
BEST GAME LY: 3pts on 1-6 shooting (1-4 from 3) in 5 minutes (5 minutes!) vs. Villanova.
7. DRE HOLLINS, Minnesota (24.7% shots, 47.0% eFG%). Don't pretend like this can't happen, I mean look at those chucker stats - they're legit. Last year Hollins got a bit too comfy shooting jumpers instead of trying to get to the rim, and though it's easy to believe it was mostly injury related, what if it wasn't? What if he decides to let Mathieu and Mason do the driving and he just wants to fire away from the outisde? He finished out the year (last 6 games) 14-63, which is 22%, and put up some chuckeriffic games in that stretch. I hope he falls off this list quickly.
BEST GAME LY: 8pts on 2-14 shooting (2-7 from 3) with no assists and 2 turnovers vs. Wisconsin
8. TRAVIS TRICE (18.4% shots, 54.8% eFG%) or DENZEL VALENTINE (16.9% shots, 48.9% eFG%), Michigan State. Keith Appling, Adreian Payne, and Gary Harris are all gone which means someone has to step up offensively and both the freshmen and most of the returnees are pretty meh. There are three clear guys who need to have big years and that's Trice, Valentine, and Branden Dawson. Dawson is too efficient to end up on this list so it's either going to be Trice or Valentine. Neither qualified last year under my completely arbitrary criteria, but the team dynamic is so different I have faith one of these two is going to become a trainwreck. Smart money is on Valentine since he just seems more likely to become overconfident, but it's pretty close to 50/50. OMG what if it's both? That would be awesome, as Chris Farley once said.
BEST GAMES LY: Trice - not a high volume shooter, but 0pts on 0-5 shooting (0-3 from 3) with 2 assists and 3 turnovers in just 16 minutes vs. Georgetown shows some potential. Valentine - also not high volume last year, but I do like his 3pts on 1-6 shooting (1-5 from 3) with 4 assists and 5 turnovers vs. Illinois game.
9. STANFORD ROBINSON, Indiana (22.6% shots, 45.8 eFG%). Yogi Ferrell is gonna shoot a ton because Yogi be Yogi and Crean be Crean and there's a bunch of other talent on the perimeter coming in so he could be squeezed for minutes, but Robinson has some real potential, especially if he shoots more threes (3-16 last year). He shoots more twos than I'd like (149 vs. 16) and is a little too efficient (48%), hence the low rating, but getting suspended for failing a drug test is a good start to the year. I don't know that drugs and chucking correlate, but it seems like it's probably not a bad sign.
BEST GAME LY: 0pts on 0-7 shooting with 2 assists and 3 turnovers vs. Purdue. No one should have had their worst game (best game) vs. Purdue last year.
10. TERRAN PETTAWAY, Nebraska (32% shots, 48.2% eFG%). Seems pretty silly to have him here given he's a top candidate for player of the year in the conference, but it's hard to ignore that shot % number of 32%, which is the kind of number usually reserved for small conference stars. The only major conference guys with a higher shot % last year were Marshall Henderson (maybe the best chucker in history) and Jabari Parker (just dominated the ball, but efficiently). Nebraska's rotation should be relatively unchanged this season, but the guys lost did shoot a ton so it's possible Pettaway takes his shot percentage number into another stratosphere. Considering most of his value comes from his scoring if he has a bad shooting year man it could be epic.
BEST GAME LY: 13pts on 5-18 shooting (1-6 from 3) with 3 assists and 3 turnovers vs. Illinois.
This is gonna be great.
Thursday, October 2, 2014
Big Ten Basketball Preview: #12 Northwestern Wildcats
Well it was a run. Northwestern did everything they could do grab that elusive (to them, not to anyone else) first ever NCAA Tournament bid and fell short year after year. Now there's no John Shurna. There's no Drew Crawford. There's no Juice Thompson. There's no Luka Mirkovic. There's just Dave Sobolewski and his lesbian haircut. Well there's also hope because of this new coach guy you maybe heard about, Chris Collins. Yeah the weiner from Duke. No not Wojo, he's at Marquette. The other one, the one with some talent, and he's already making a difference because he signed Vic Law, ESPN's 66th ranked prospect for 2014, as well as a handful of other quality recruits between 2014 and 2015. This year, however, Northwestern probably isn't looking at that first bid, but they do have enough to remain dangerous.
The biggest reason for this danger is Tre Demps, who is a great chucker (26% of team shots when on the floor despite a 45.7% eFG%) but is also made of stone balls. Here's what he did in Northwestern's conference wins last season: Three pointer against the Gophers in a tie game with 54 seconds remaining. Five points and three assists in a four minute span against Wisconsin to give Northwestern control of the game. Game tying 3-pointer with a minute left in overtime against Purdue and then 4-4 on free throws in double OT to close it out. Thirteen straight points at the end of the game against Indiana. Three 3-pointers in a row down the stretch against Illinois. He's a chucker for sure, and his overall numbers don't make you squeal from last year (11.0ppg, 38% FG) he clearly has an ability to step up in the the big moment. So, you know, I'd recommend the Gophers don't, you know, let Northwestern hang around until Demps just goes ahead and wins the game for them.
Demps will be joined on the wing by JerShon Cobb, the team's leading returning scorer at 12.2 points per game. He's more consistent and efficient than Demps, and will likely be their go to guy for the majority of the game until Demps decides he wants to rip some hearts out. Cobb was a pretty big deal recruit back when, but has had injury problems his whole career including leg problems that shut him down early last season. If he can stay healthy he has All-Big 10 type talent, as evidenced by his four 20+ point games against quality opponents last season, but that's a big if.
With Demps, Cobb, and Law the Wildcats should be solid and athletic on the wing, which will help their league best defense from last season return, but that's about where the good news ends. Alex Olah will be the starting center though he's limited on offense and a horrendous rebounder for a 7-footer, though 6-10 transfer from Yale Jeremiah Kreisberg might end up stealing that spot. It's probably best for Northwestern if he does. There's decent, if unproven, depth with Sanjay Lumpkin and Nathan Taphorn. Taphorn should inherit the "wander around and shoot some threes" role from the departed Kale Abrahamson.
Point guard is a real issue, as Dave Sobolewski just fell off a cliff last season, putting up some truly hideous shooting numbers (18% from 3, 26% overall) and putting up the worst turnover and foul rates of his career. He did suffer a concussion midseason, missing four games in a row and genearlly having trouble getting back into the swing of things, but he was having a rough year prior to that anyway and with Collins playing more man-to-man than Carmody did, Sobolewski's contributions may be limited. That either means Demps plays more point (super chucker alert!) or freshman Bryant McIntosh takes over. McIntosh is a fringe top 200 kid, but he should fit in well at Northwestern because he just looks so freaking annoying. Seriously.
It's an interesting time, and probably a fun one, to be a Northwestern fan as they've managed to take a string of failed seasons and recycle them back into optimism with an exciting new coach who is bringing in a whole slew of new players. It'll be interesting to see how and if Collins changes the program (and how long he sticks around, if successful). He seems to be recruiting a more athletic player, so the slow down game may shortly be a thing of the past. Lotta hope in Evanston, and with good reason, even if everyone still misses Luka.
Other Previews:
#13 PURDUE BOILERMAKERS
#14 RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS
The biggest reason for this danger is Tre Demps, who is a great chucker (26% of team shots when on the floor despite a 45.7% eFG%) but is also made of stone balls. Here's what he did in Northwestern's conference wins last season: Three pointer against the Gophers in a tie game with 54 seconds remaining. Five points and three assists in a four minute span against Wisconsin to give Northwestern control of the game. Game tying 3-pointer with a minute left in overtime against Purdue and then 4-4 on free throws in double OT to close it out. Thirteen straight points at the end of the game against Indiana. Three 3-pointers in a row down the stretch against Illinois. He's a chucker for sure, and his overall numbers don't make you squeal from last year (11.0ppg, 38% FG) he clearly has an ability to step up in the the big moment. So, you know, I'd recommend the Gophers don't, you know, let Northwestern hang around until Demps just goes ahead and wins the game for them.
Demps will be joined on the wing by JerShon Cobb, the team's leading returning scorer at 12.2 points per game. He's more consistent and efficient than Demps, and will likely be their go to guy for the majority of the game until Demps decides he wants to rip some hearts out. Cobb was a pretty big deal recruit back when, but has had injury problems his whole career including leg problems that shut him down early last season. If he can stay healthy he has All-Big 10 type talent, as evidenced by his four 20+ point games against quality opponents last season, but that's a big if.
With Demps, Cobb, and Law the Wildcats should be solid and athletic on the wing, which will help their league best defense from last season return, but that's about where the good news ends. Alex Olah will be the starting center though he's limited on offense and a horrendous rebounder for a 7-footer, though 6-10 transfer from Yale Jeremiah Kreisberg might end up stealing that spot. It's probably best for Northwestern if he does. There's decent, if unproven, depth with Sanjay Lumpkin and Nathan Taphorn. Taphorn should inherit the "wander around and shoot some threes" role from the departed Kale Abrahamson.
Point guard is a real issue, as Dave Sobolewski just fell off a cliff last season, putting up some truly hideous shooting numbers (18% from 3, 26% overall) and putting up the worst turnover and foul rates of his career. He did suffer a concussion midseason, missing four games in a row and genearlly having trouble getting back into the swing of things, but he was having a rough year prior to that anyway and with Collins playing more man-to-man than Carmody did, Sobolewski's contributions may be limited. That either means Demps plays more point (super chucker alert!) or freshman Bryant McIntosh takes over. McIntosh is a fringe top 200 kid, but he should fit in well at Northwestern because he just looks so freaking annoying. Seriously.
 |
| So Punchable. Plus his name is Bryant McIntosh for pete's sake. |
It's an interesting time, and probably a fun one, to be a Northwestern fan as they've managed to take a string of failed seasons and recycle them back into optimism with an exciting new coach who is bringing in a whole slew of new players. It'll be interesting to see how and if Collins changes the program (and how long he sticks around, if successful). He seems to be recruiting a more athletic player, so the slow down game may shortly be a thing of the past. Lotta hope in Evanston, and with good reason, even if everyone still misses Luka.
Other Previews:
#13 PURDUE BOILERMAKERS
#14 RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS
Monday, February 3, 2014
Northwestern 55, Gophers 54
Am I really supposed to write about this game? I've now had an entire day, including a very unsatisfying Super Bowl, to get over the disappointment and I still don't want to write about. However I am pretty sure if I pass on writing on this game I will just quit altogether and as much as I'd like to do that I don't want to do that. So here is a very quick 10 Things I Liked and Didn't Like. Unless I do that thing I sometimes do where I just vomit words all over the screen, then it won't be short.
1. Meet the old boss, same as the new boss? There are a whole lot of things I like about Richard Pitino when compared directly to Tubby Smith. Energy. Players improving. Uptempo game. More imaginative offense. Gameplanning for specific opponents. I am a fan. A big fan. But what is this shit where February is just a shit bath every year? I don't care that Northwestern has some good wins lately and is looking frisky, you don't lose to them at home. There recent success has seen their RPI creep up into the top 100 (#83) so technically this won't go down as a bad loss, but this was a bad loss. I will get into NCAA bid chances later, but even if this one didn't hurt as much as you'd think because of that non-horrible RPI, it really hurts because this is a game you just don't lose if you're an NCAA team.
2. The Gophers got shredded by a terrible offense. Northwestern has shown some success lately due to their tough defense, not a good offense. The Wildcats scored 1.02 points per possession and shot 48% from two and 38% from three. Their season numbers are 0.96, 46.5%, and 30%. Their in-conference numbers are 0.87, 45%, and 27%. They have been awful all year and even worse in Big Ten play, and they lit the Gophers up (at least comparatively). I will grant that Northwestern seemed to hit an awful lot of tough shots, but that shouldn't make a difference. Horrendous defense, and it's been a problem all year. This, however, was the worst.
3. Whining about the refs is really not the way to go. Did the refs miss a foul call on Mathieu and/or Walker at the conclusion of the game? Seems like a strong possibility. I haven't gone back and watched it because I have better things to do like impale each of my fingers with a bamboo skewer, but I've read enough, even from none raging homers, that it sounds like a case can be made that both were fouled. Doesn't matter. First of all, they both had lay-ups and even with a minor foul those shots need to be made. Secondly, the Gophers played so shitty that leaving the final result to the refs is their own fault for letting it get to that point. There are one billion things to worry about from this game before you get to the refs. Not an exaggeration.
4. This team is still way too careless with the ball. I know it seems weird to complain about turnovers after a game where the Gophers only turned it over 8 times and on a percentage basis were below their season average and even below Northwestern's defensive season average, but they're just so careless sometimes. There are turnovers where a team's pressure forces you into bad situations, and then there are turnovers where you just give the ball away for no real reason at all and the Gophers' turnovers yesterday were almost exclusively the latter. I mean you just can't turn the ball over on a simple post entry when the defender isn't even attempting to deny the pass, and that happened at least 3 times with two passes going through Mo Walker's legs like he was some shitty hockey goalie guy. Northwestern doesn't care if they turn you over, so there's no reason to help them out.
5. On the positive side, Austin Hollis appears to be registering a pulse again. 13 points on 5-10 shooting, five rebounds, two assists, and three steals with zero turnovers. Most importantly he looked confident again. Starting with the open scrimmage thing and carrying into the early season Hollins was carrying himself with some serious senior swagger and in general that bodes well for a breakout type final year. I have no idea what happened or when, but he lost all that. The crazy thing about watching college kids is you never quite know what's happening. His girlfriend could have broken up with him or he's struggling in chemistry or he discovered weed (Sammy J -> hi), it could be anything but he just didn't look the same on the court. He still can't shoot for shit, but he's finally doing that thing where he flies all over the floor and grabs boards and gets steals. That's a bunch of games in a row now where he's looked like the old Austin, and with Dre still out hopefully he keeps that up and forgets about that devil woman or derivatives or precipitates or whatever.
6. Daquein McNeil looked pretty good. I was impressed. He played a career high of 24 minutes on Saturday (previous high was 13) and although the box score doesn't jump out at your stupid face if you watched him he looked good for an unheralded freshman. He's clearly passed Maverick on the point guard depth chart, which is a good thing considering outside of a wide open shot Mav is basically a complete disaster with the ball in his hands, and after some early season jitters he seems to have settled in and belies a calm beyond his years. I mentioned to Snacks that McNeil was started to look like he might end up a pretty decent Big Ten player, and we wondered how good he would have ended up being in the Sun Belt or wherever the hell FIU plays. There was a lot of understandable skepticism about a Sun Belt recruit suddenly being taken to the Big Ten and I wasn't sure about it myself, but I'm now glad he ended up a Gopher. I'm sure Dawger still prefers Maverick, but he also thinks Cal Ripken was overrated so what are you gonna do?
7. The Gophers have developed a couple of pet plays and I like them both a lot. The first is pretty basic, but you have to have the right personnel and the Gophers do with Mo Walker. A guard simply enters the ball to Walker at the free throw line and he turns and looks for a baseline cutter. Walker has the basketball savvy and passing skill to make this work (skills that were evident his freshman year as well, unlike his sudden ability to dominate the paint and score like it's his job). This worked a few times against Northwestern which was surprising considering how fundamentally sound they usually are. If the Gophers had won I would probably go back and rewatch these to see how it happened, but as it stands I'd rather rewatch World War Z than this game so forget it. The other play they will break out 2-3 times a game and it's the one they used to get Malik Smith that huge three pointer against Michigan. Dre Mathieu will drive from the right side and take the ball baseline, while two shooters spot up on the opposite side - one in the corner and the other on the wing. With the defense collapsing to stop the drive one of them almost always seems to be open. It seemed to be the corner guy earlier in the season, but as teams have gotten more tape on the play usually it's the wing guy these days, and luckily Mathieu seems to make the right decision. It would be a better play if anybody could shoot on this team, but I like it anyway.
8. Tre Demps is a stone cold assassin. Demps is becoming the kind of guy who you can look at the stats and laugh and stuff but god damn would I love him on my team. Much like Malik Smith is a chucker but he's our chucker, Demps is the same for Northwestern except he's been hitting huge shot after huge shot. Three pointer against the Gophers in a tie game with 54 seconds remaining. Five points and three assists in a four minute span against Wisconsin to give Northwestern control of the game. Game tying 3-pointer with a minute left in overtime against Purdue and then 4-4 on free throws in double OT to close it out. Thirteen straight points at the end of the game against Indiana. Three 3-pointers in a row down the stretch against Illinois. In every single Northwestern Big Ten win this year, and there are a shocking number of them, you can find a stretch where Demps controlled the game for the Wildcats, whether it was a single huge shot or a stretch where he carried their offense. Guy is just owning the Big Ten right now.
9. This team desperately needs Andre Hollins back. It sounds like it's possible he'll be back for Purdue, but more likely Indiana and it can't happen soon enough. I love DeAndre Mathieu a lot, but he's better when he's not forced into being the only creator, and with Hollins down he's the only one who can get into the paint off the dribble. Not to mention he's your best shooter, one of your top defenders, and the clear team leader. I was hoping the team could tread water while they waited for him to get healthy, but this has been more like treading bricks.
10. NCAA hopes aren't dead or anything so calm down nancy. This loss was definitely a hit, but as it currently stands (per ESPN) the RPI is 37 and Strength of Schedule still a robust #6. The Gophers are 2-3 vs. the RPI Top 25, 4-4 vs. the Top 50, and 5-8 vs. the Top 100 - these are all good numbers. Thanks to Northwestern's RPI jump, the Gophers still don't have a bad loss (outside the Top 100), and that's probably just as relevant as anything else on their resume. The issue now is that the home game vs. Northwestern was one everyone was counting on as a win, and with them dropping the game at Nebraska as well suddenly the margin for error is razor thin. The Gophers probably need five more wins, and now only the home games against Penn State and Illinois look like "sure" wins. The next two games are huge, @Purdue and home vs. Indiana. The Gophers don't necessarily need to win both, but it would be awfully nice and then they'd only need to "steal" one of the remaining five games, which is doable. On the one hand, it's nice to even worry about this because I wasn't sure the Gophers would even be a bubble team at the start of the year. On the other hand, this sucks because one week ago the Gophers weren't a bubble team but were solidly in the tournament. Looks like this year is going to be like every other, down to the bubble wire. I really need a year where this isn't the case.
1. Meet the old boss, same as the new boss? There are a whole lot of things I like about Richard Pitino when compared directly to Tubby Smith. Energy. Players improving. Uptempo game. More imaginative offense. Gameplanning for specific opponents. I am a fan. A big fan. But what is this shit where February is just a shit bath every year? I don't care that Northwestern has some good wins lately and is looking frisky, you don't lose to them at home. There recent success has seen their RPI creep up into the top 100 (#83) so technically this won't go down as a bad loss, but this was a bad loss. I will get into NCAA bid chances later, but even if this one didn't hurt as much as you'd think because of that non-horrible RPI, it really hurts because this is a game you just don't lose if you're an NCAA team.
2. The Gophers got shredded by a terrible offense. Northwestern has shown some success lately due to their tough defense, not a good offense. The Wildcats scored 1.02 points per possession and shot 48% from two and 38% from three. Their season numbers are 0.96, 46.5%, and 30%. Their in-conference numbers are 0.87, 45%, and 27%. They have been awful all year and even worse in Big Ten play, and they lit the Gophers up (at least comparatively). I will grant that Northwestern seemed to hit an awful lot of tough shots, but that shouldn't make a difference. Horrendous defense, and it's been a problem all year. This, however, was the worst.
3. Whining about the refs is really not the way to go. Did the refs miss a foul call on Mathieu and/or Walker at the conclusion of the game? Seems like a strong possibility. I haven't gone back and watched it because I have better things to do like impale each of my fingers with a bamboo skewer, but I've read enough, even from none raging homers, that it sounds like a case can be made that both were fouled. Doesn't matter. First of all, they both had lay-ups and even with a minor foul those shots need to be made. Secondly, the Gophers played so shitty that leaving the final result to the refs is their own fault for letting it get to that point. There are one billion things to worry about from this game before you get to the refs. Not an exaggeration.
4. This team is still way too careless with the ball. I know it seems weird to complain about turnovers after a game where the Gophers only turned it over 8 times and on a percentage basis were below their season average and even below Northwestern's defensive season average, but they're just so careless sometimes. There are turnovers where a team's pressure forces you into bad situations, and then there are turnovers where you just give the ball away for no real reason at all and the Gophers' turnovers yesterday were almost exclusively the latter. I mean you just can't turn the ball over on a simple post entry when the defender isn't even attempting to deny the pass, and that happened at least 3 times with two passes going through Mo Walker's legs like he was some shitty hockey goalie guy. Northwestern doesn't care if they turn you over, so there's no reason to help them out.
5. On the positive side, Austin Hollis appears to be registering a pulse again. 13 points on 5-10 shooting, five rebounds, two assists, and three steals with zero turnovers. Most importantly he looked confident again. Starting with the open scrimmage thing and carrying into the early season Hollins was carrying himself with some serious senior swagger and in general that bodes well for a breakout type final year. I have no idea what happened or when, but he lost all that. The crazy thing about watching college kids is you never quite know what's happening. His girlfriend could have broken up with him or he's struggling in chemistry or he discovered weed (Sammy J -> hi), it could be anything but he just didn't look the same on the court. He still can't shoot for shit, but he's finally doing that thing where he flies all over the floor and grabs boards and gets steals. That's a bunch of games in a row now where he's looked like the old Austin, and with Dre still out hopefully he keeps that up and forgets about that devil woman or derivatives or precipitates or whatever.
6. Daquein McNeil looked pretty good. I was impressed. He played a career high of 24 minutes on Saturday (previous high was 13) and although the box score doesn't jump out at your stupid face if you watched him he looked good for an unheralded freshman. He's clearly passed Maverick on the point guard depth chart, which is a good thing considering outside of a wide open shot Mav is basically a complete disaster with the ball in his hands, and after some early season jitters he seems to have settled in and belies a calm beyond his years. I mentioned to Snacks that McNeil was started to look like he might end up a pretty decent Big Ten player, and we wondered how good he would have ended up being in the Sun Belt or wherever the hell FIU plays. There was a lot of understandable skepticism about a Sun Belt recruit suddenly being taken to the Big Ten and I wasn't sure about it myself, but I'm now glad he ended up a Gopher. I'm sure Dawger still prefers Maverick, but he also thinks Cal Ripken was overrated so what are you gonna do?
7. The Gophers have developed a couple of pet plays and I like them both a lot. The first is pretty basic, but you have to have the right personnel and the Gophers do with Mo Walker. A guard simply enters the ball to Walker at the free throw line and he turns and looks for a baseline cutter. Walker has the basketball savvy and passing skill to make this work (skills that were evident his freshman year as well, unlike his sudden ability to dominate the paint and score like it's his job). This worked a few times against Northwestern which was surprising considering how fundamentally sound they usually are. If the Gophers had won I would probably go back and rewatch these to see how it happened, but as it stands I'd rather rewatch World War Z than this game so forget it. The other play they will break out 2-3 times a game and it's the one they used to get Malik Smith that huge three pointer against Michigan. Dre Mathieu will drive from the right side and take the ball baseline, while two shooters spot up on the opposite side - one in the corner and the other on the wing. With the defense collapsing to stop the drive one of them almost always seems to be open. It seemed to be the corner guy earlier in the season, but as teams have gotten more tape on the play usually it's the wing guy these days, and luckily Mathieu seems to make the right decision. It would be a better play if anybody could shoot on this team, but I like it anyway.
8. Tre Demps is a stone cold assassin. Demps is becoming the kind of guy who you can look at the stats and laugh and stuff but god damn would I love him on my team. Much like Malik Smith is a chucker but he's our chucker, Demps is the same for Northwestern except he's been hitting huge shot after huge shot. Three pointer against the Gophers in a tie game with 54 seconds remaining. Five points and three assists in a four minute span against Wisconsin to give Northwestern control of the game. Game tying 3-pointer with a minute left in overtime against Purdue and then 4-4 on free throws in double OT to close it out. Thirteen straight points at the end of the game against Indiana. Three 3-pointers in a row down the stretch against Illinois. In every single Northwestern Big Ten win this year, and there are a shocking number of them, you can find a stretch where Demps controlled the game for the Wildcats, whether it was a single huge shot or a stretch where he carried their offense. Guy is just owning the Big Ten right now.
9. This team desperately needs Andre Hollins back. It sounds like it's possible he'll be back for Purdue, but more likely Indiana and it can't happen soon enough. I love DeAndre Mathieu a lot, but he's better when he's not forced into being the only creator, and with Hollins down he's the only one who can get into the paint off the dribble. Not to mention he's your best shooter, one of your top defenders, and the clear team leader. I was hoping the team could tread water while they waited for him to get healthy, but this has been more like treading bricks.
10. NCAA hopes aren't dead or anything so calm down nancy. This loss was definitely a hit, but as it currently stands (per ESPN) the RPI is 37 and Strength of Schedule still a robust #6. The Gophers are 2-3 vs. the RPI Top 25, 4-4 vs. the Top 50, and 5-8 vs. the Top 100 - these are all good numbers. Thanks to Northwestern's RPI jump, the Gophers still don't have a bad loss (outside the Top 100), and that's probably just as relevant as anything else on their resume. The issue now is that the home game vs. Northwestern was one everyone was counting on as a win, and with them dropping the game at Nebraska as well suddenly the margin for error is razor thin. The Gophers probably need five more wins, and now only the home games against Penn State and Illinois look like "sure" wins. The next two games are huge, @Purdue and home vs. Indiana. The Gophers don't necessarily need to win both, but it would be awfully nice and then they'd only need to "steal" one of the remaining five games, which is doable. On the one hand, it's nice to even worry about this because I wasn't sure the Gophers would even be a bubble team at the start of the year. On the other hand, this sucks because one week ago the Gophers weren't a bubble team but were solidly in the tournament. Looks like this year is going to be like every other, down to the bubble wire. I really need a year where this isn't the case.
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