Conference Tournament Previews (Tuesday Editiion)

It's March, which means I'll do what I do every year at this time.  Well, actually what I do every year at this time is obsess over the Bubble and try to figure out exactly how many games the Gophers need to win to get a bid or if they're already out unless they win the B10 Tournament.  Since I don't have to worry about that this year (they're in, nerds) I'll concentrate more on the other thing I do every year at the beginning of March - celebrate the smaller conference tournaments and rejoice in day action.  So here's we go.

These tournaments kick-off the action, beginning on Tuesday:

[ED. NOTE:  I stepped all over TRE's Gopher hockey post, so make sure to check it out.]

BIG SOUTH
Wow.  What a way to kick things off.  The Big South has traditionally been pretty bad, but usually one of the teams is at least a threat.  In recent years Winthrop, UNC-Asheville, and Gardner Webb have at least been a threat to win a first round game (with Winthrop pretty much being a mid-major darling) but those days are gone.  This is a bad conference (ranks #29 out of #31 NCAA eligible conferences.
FAVORITE:  Charleston Southern.  Both the Buccaneers and High Point finished the conference schedule at 12-4, but the Bucs get the #1 seed thanks to beating the Panthers in their only meeting this season.  Although these two teams are the best of the Big South by a wide margin they still aren't very good, combining to beat just three teams ranked better than #200 in kenpom's ratings (and none better than #189) and they have a combined five wins over non D-I teams between them.
SLEEPER:  Virginia Military Academy.  I believe in all the years I've been doing this I've picked VMI as the sleeper in the Big South regardless of their record (8-8 this year) because they play such an interesting style - run, run, run, score, no defense.  It hasn't really worked this year, outside of a 4-0 start to conference play, but despite that pace the Keydets rarely turn the ball over so they get off tons of shots.  They just need to get hot and they can make a run, although that hasn't happened much this season.
W's PICK:  High Point.  This is rough.  Every one of these teams has some pretty glaring flaws, even compared to their peers.  I'll go with the Panthers who have the league's #1 most efficient offense top defensive squad vs. three-pointers, but really anybody could come out of here to get crushed later.

HORIZON LEAGUE
It's a definite change to not just write Butler in here, but these are the winds of change and so go the days of our lives or something.  And now Butler might be joining that new basketball only conference with the Catholic 7 from the Big East?  Or formerly Big East or new Big East?  I can't keep up.  I enjoyed the first few rounds of conference realignment as much as the next guy, but seriously can we take our foot of the gas so I can figure out who goes where for a year or two?
FAVORITE:  Valparaiso.  Despite the loss of the star power of Butler, there are still a couple of stacked teams in the Horizon in Valpo and Detroit, who both made my preseason list of Top 68 teams (at #36 and #46, respectively).  Although neither is in the at-large conversation anymore, both have enough ability to pull off a first round upset in the NCAA Tournament.
SLEEPER:  UW-Green Bay.  The Phoenix (lol) have non-conference wins over NDSU and Marquette, two of just four wins this conference managed against Kenpom Top 100 teams this year (none of which came from Valpo or Detroit, it's worth noting).  They probably aren't a major threat this year but UWGB is a really young team with only one senior, so expect the Phoenix to rise to the top of the standings in the next year or two.  You like that?  Expect the Phoenix to rise?  God I'm Rick Reilly.
W's PICK:  Valparaiso.  It actually pains me a little to pick against Detroit and Ray McCallum who will be in the NBA someday and is super awesome, but Valpo is stacked.  Their trio of Bobby Capobianco (formerly of Indiana), Ryan Broekhoff, and Kevin van Wijk give them a combination of size, ability, and experience that few mid-majors can match.  Assuming they can get somebody - anybody - to give them capable guard play and this is a dangerous March team.

Last night in college basketball nothing really interesting happened.  Louisville crushed Cincinnati, which was supposed to happen, and Kansas super-crushed Texas Tech, which was definitely supposed to happen.  This helps Kansas creep closer to a one seed as well as putting more pressure on Cincy who was looking like a definite NCAA team earlier this year but has sputtered lately.  As long as they don't blow their last game against South Florida they should still be ok, but they've lost four of their last five and six of their last eight, so there's definitely some pressure involved in that last game.

The biggest bubble news of the night was Baylor's loss at Texas, which pretty much ends the Bears hope for an at-large.  Has anybody ever done less with more than Scott Drew?  Well I guess that's a little rough considering he has two Elite Eights since 2010, but those teams seemed to succeed in spite of Drew, not because of him.  Right?

As far as bubble action tonight Arkansas is probably in the biggest must win situation here (@ Missouri) with a too high RPI and this being a big chance to get a signature win to help bring that down, although Boise State could really, really use a win at UNLV.  Notre Dame is probably already in but it would behoove them to not lose at home to St. John's.  Illinois probably puts themselves solidly in if they win at Iowa, while a loss isn't a killer, while Memphis faces a similar game at UTEP but a loss would hurt the Tigers quite a bit more.  Lastly, we have a true elimination game with Alabama @ Ole Miss.  It's very possible neither team gets in, but the winner definitely won't (barring an SEC Tournament title).  Fun time of year, especially when I'm not worried about the Gophers every single day.  Neat.

DWG College Basketball Preview: Teams #46-39

Man weather is such a dick.  The Cards/Giants are still sitting there, like 3 hours after their delay started, waiting to resume play in the 8th and the Yanks/Tigers has been postponed now until tomorrow.  Sucks.  So here's something else that's a thing you could do:

46.  Detroit Titans.  Ray McCallum is still there.  Three years ago two big-time recruits signed with smaller schools to play for their dads.  One (Trey Ziegler at CMU) saw his father fired after two dismal seasons and bolted to Pitt, the other is McCallum and after advancing to the NCAA Tournament by winning the Horizon tournament last year the Titans are looking to do even more.  There are some notable losses, particularly size-wise in Eli Holman, but there are a couple of senior forwards capable of putting up good numbers who should help balance things with McCallum.  Plus they got Juwon Howard, Jr. this year.  Juwon Howard Junior!  Hell yeah!

45.  Tennessee Volunteers.  Bruce Pearl left Tennessee looking like a mess, but behind some solid leadership from Cuonzo Martin (CUONZO!) they actually had a pretty solid year last season (NIT berth) and now return almost the entire team for another go at it.  And guys, their PF Jeronne Maymon is just a monster, and out of nowhere, too.  He was nothing, and then he just exploded into a guy who had double figure points or rebounds (or both) in the Vols last 15 games last year and put up double doubles against three of the teams toughest opponents last season (Kentucky, Memphis, and Duke) including a 32 point, 20 rebound performance against Memphis.  He's very Mbakwellian on the glass, just attacking every rebound as if his very life, nay, the fate of the planet, rested on him getting that ball.  Tennessee was always able to recruit under Pearl but he was such as shitty coach they were chronically underachieved.  Martin is a far better coach, and if he continues to get the same caliber of players to come to Tennessee this team is going to be a major player going forward. 

44.  UCONN Huskies.  UCONN can't play in the postseason this year because of I don't know grades or some dumb arbitrary NCAA rule that punishes players who had nothing to do with the infraction, and as a result of that had to watch Alex Oriakhi and Roscoe Smith bolt to Missouri and UNLV respectively (along with Andre Drummond and Jeremy Lamb to the NBA) and will be going with a new coach in Kevin Ollie, but there's still plenty of talent here to screw over at least a Big East team or two's at-large hopes with some big wins.  That is, of course, if DeAndre Daniels can become what he was supposed to become.  Daniels was a top-10 recruit last season who chose UCONN over Kentucky, Florida, Duke, and Kansas but ended up buried on the bench much of last season.  If he can blossom with a bigger role and mesh with outstanding guard tandem Ryan Boatright and Shabazz Napier the Huskies could be awfully good.  Of course without cheater Calhoun who knows how this all shakes out.  They could win four games and I wouldn't be surprised.

43.  Davidson Wildcats.  Davidson is a little bit annoying to me in their consistency, but here they are, back again, heavy favorites to win the SoCon and just good enough to scare or beat a team or two once they inevitably get to the NCAA Tournament as an 11 seed.  Pretty much the entire team returns from last season when they put a scare in Louisville in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, but what's interesting about this iteration of the Wildcats is rather than being overly dependent on guards and 3-pointers, their two best players are a pair of forwards (including the SoCon Player of the Year and the other guy might actually be better) who can hit it, but don't need to.  They leave that to the 200 guards Davidson has running around.  Again.

42.  Harvard Crimson.  Well Tommy Amaker's got a nice little thing going here.  In 2010 they made the CIT.  In 2011, the NIT after tying for the Ivy League crown and losing in a one game playoff.  Then last year they won the Ivy to make the NCAA Tournament, losing to fifth-seeded Vanderbilt by nine (yes, I picked Harvard).  They do lose last year's Ivy League Player of the Year, but have everybody else back and Nevermind somehow I missed that Harvard has a bunch of guys embroiled in an academic scandal including their best player and both co-captains who are no longer on the team so drop these guys off the list, bump everyone up one, and throw Northwestern at the end or something.  Gotta have some nerds, somehow.

41.  Florida State Seminoles.  Maybe I'm way off on FSU because they are 24th in the first Coaches' Poll that just came out, but I'm not seeing it.  Losing four starters including your entire inside presence in Bernard James and Xavier Gibson is, like sticking a paperclip into a power outlet, no picnic.  Yeah, they still have Michael Snaer and you know they'll be tenacious on defense and won't back down, but you know who else is tenacious and never backs down?  My two-year old, and by the end of most days he's either run into a wall face first or fallen off some random piece of furniture and landed on his head.  Every once in a while, however, he'll get a big win by throwing a matchbox car and hitting Mrs. W right in the face. 

40.  Murray State Racers.  Things could be a bit tougher for the Racers this year, what with losing three starters and having to deal with Belmont's move to the OVC, but Murray State has developed a "Gonzaga-lite" reputation for a reason.  They have a whole bunch of experienced seniors and generally play a deep bench so even if these guys don't have impressive stats you can bet they can play, and Murray State keeps bringing in solid recruiting classes to keep that pipeline going as well.  Not to mention they still have Isaiah Canaan who led them to the tournament last year, winning the OVC Player of the Year Award, and then promptly sucked (8-30 in two NCAA Tourney games).  Now a senior, Canaan should be able to do more assuming they get to that point again, because everyone knows that noted chokers always get better over time, right A-Rod?

39.  St. Joe's Hawks.  I actually feel like I might be underrating these guys a bit, because this team kind of has that feeling of building something that might be cresting this season.  Last season the Hawks won 20 games (9 in A-10 play) and snagged an NIT berth, not bad considering the two previous years they won 22 games combined.  Carl Jones, C.J. Aiken, and Langston Galloway (who you remember from such games as against the Gophers two straight years) are now in their third year playing together with Aiken growing into a force in the paint, Galloway developing into a dead-eye shooter from the wing, and Jones, well, he's pretty much the same chucker he's always been since he arrived in Philly and maybe these guys will be even better when he's gone next season (the other two are juniors) but whatever.  St. Joe's' has been crappy since Jameer Nelson and Delonte West left and now they have hope.  Can't you just let them have hope with their cheesesteaks?


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Teams #68-60
Teams #59-53
Teams #52-47