Well the Gophers are back in the NCAA Tournament and I gotta say despite everything else it feels damn good. I'm also pretty pleased with the 11 seed, because it keeps the Gophers away from the #1s and #2s as long as possible, although a possible second round match-up with Florida would probably be every bit the bloodbath you'd see against a #1 or #2. I'll be back with a preview of UCLA on Wednesday night (and then will go radio silent (except twitter) until the next week as we take our annual trip to Chicago to watch all the games from the Dayton Bar with Bogart.) I've also been informed that the Dayton Bar is also an Ole Miss bar so I'm looking forward to watching them hopefully beat the Badgers.
Anyway, here are the toughest things I'm struggling with as a fill out my bracket:
1) Florida or Georgetown? There were three teams I wanted to put in the final four for sure: Louisville, Florida, or Georgetown. Unfortunately, now I can't do that and need to make a choice between the Gators and Hoyas since they'd play in the Sweet 16 if everything holds. I love Florida because they have so many weapons and can score inside or out, and they compliment that with great defense. Georgetown is also an amazing defensive team, and they have Big East Player of the Year Otto Porter who is good enough to carry that offense on his back a la John Wallace or Kemba Walker. I hate that I have to choose, but I'm going with the Gators.
2) What do do with Wisconsin. I hate this. I was all set to have both Wisconsin (because I hate them) and Kansas State (because they, and Bruce Weber, suck) to lose in the first round, but it all broke wrong. Wisconsin gets an Ole Miss team who I don't think can compete with them, and Kansas State gets the play-in winner of LaSalle and Boise State, neither of whom is very good at all. I almost have to take K-State and Wisconsin to both win their first round match-up, and if that happens there's no way K-State can beat the Badgers because Ryan can coach circles around Weber and the Wildcats are perfectly undisciplined enough to fall right into Wisconsin's traps. So I have Wisconsin in the Sweet 16. Feels really wrong and icky and dirty, but since they're always the luckiest team in America you can't rule it out. I'm still rooting against them though. If you don't it means you hate America.
3) Who comes out of the West? In every other region it's come down to one or two difficult decisions between teams I think are good enough to make the Final Four, while in the West I'm decided who is least flawed among the contenders. Gonzaga and New Mexico are good teams no doubt, but neither has been tested as often or as consistently. Both have some good non-conference wins of course but Gonzaga ran through a pretty crappy conference and although New Mexico played in a good MWC I just don't know if I'm buying it. That leaves Ohio State, about whom there are no questions regarding having been tested, but unless their offense continues to be about more than DeShaun Thomas they're going to struggle. If anything wacky happens I'm betting it's in this region, because there are some really weak teams for their seed (Arizona, K-State, Wisco, etc.). Right now I'm going to buy the Buckeyes. The team's offense is coming together with Thomas finding plenty of help, the defense is top-notch as usual, and the coaching is solid.
4) Can Louisville Survive? I think the Cardinals are the best team in the NCAA and my pick to win it all, but holy hell is the Midwest Region a bitch. I consider Oklahoma State, St. Louis, and Michigan State as dark horse Final Four candidates and sure enough, they're all here. The only real saving grace is that Duke is the #2 here and Duke sucks so at least they catch a break there. Even some of the really high seeds (#12 Oregon, #14 Valparaiso) are pretty dangerous. Whoever gets out of this region is going to have to have done some seriously good work. Luckily Louisville hits my check list - come in on a high note (not necessarily a conference tournament victory but just playing well), good guards who can make free throws, great defense, and a team who can shoot without being dependent on the 3. So yeah, despite the tough region Louisville is my champ.
5) Who upsets Kansas? I know Kansas has kind of shed that choker label, what with the two Final Fours since 2008 and all, but there's no way this version of Kansas is Final Four bound so the question becomes where do they get bounced? I'm betting they don't get out of the first weekend with North Carolina knocking them out as one of the toughest 8 seeds I can remember. I know Carolina has been talked about as being "down" this year and maybe they are with 10 losses, but do you realize their worst loss this year was to Texas? And after that their worst loss was to Butler? The rest are 3 losses to Miami, 2 to Duke, and one each to Indiana, Virginia, and NC State which means the Heels don't have a single loss to a team outside of kenpom's top 100 teams. They're probably a little too perimeter dependent to make a significant run, but they should dispatch Villanova with ease and then in a one-time game against Kansas? It could happen, kids, it could happen.
6) How good is Miami? That's an important question, because I don't believe in Indiana and I don't believe in Marquette, which means it's either Miami or Syracuse coming out of the East for me. I do expect Syracuse to beat the Hoosiers and face the Canes with a Final Four berth on the line, so it becomes a matter if I think Miami is good enough to handle the Cuse. As it turns out, I think they are. They're experienced enough to not get rattled and they have the guard play needed to break down the Orange's zone with four guys who are lights out from three, and they play excellent defense, rebound well, and come in off an ACC Tournament Championship. Their free throw shooting is a bit suspect, but otherwise Miami is another team who looks really, really good and I have them in my Final Four.
That's it for now, back later with a Gophers/UCLA preview.
Showing posts with label Georgetown. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Georgetown. Show all posts
Monday, March 18, 2013
Monday, March 11, 2013
Tournament Season now Hits the Big Guys
Ok I missed the Monday tournaments. That's okay though, because I'm going to cover them today along with Tuesday's kick-offs which is when some of the big dogs come out to play. I know many of you were lost on Monday night, wondering about the MAC and the MEAC and for that I apologize, but like a beacon in the dark I am here to walk you through.
Lots of stuff happened this weekend, including Kentucky, Baylor, and Boise got the big wins they needed while Iowa State, Ole Miss, and Cincy avoided what would have been crushing losses. Belmont made there be one less bubble team by winning the autobid in the OVC (Davidson won the SoCon's autobid last night but they probably weren't getting an at-large in any case), and Oklahoma (probably still in), Colorado (probably still in), and Louisiana Tech (needs autobid now) picked up ugly losses along with the Gophers.
What does this all mean? Well, along with the pairings coming out and showing the Gophers taking on Illinois in the opening round of the Big Ten Tournament it means the Gophers are in no matter what. Illinois's RPI is 42, which means a loss is just fine and a win would be a very good win. With most projectionists putting the Gophers in the 8-10 range there's no way a good loss knocks them out. So congratulations?
Ideally the Gophers would beat Illinois and Indiana and jump up to a six seed to avoid facing a 1 or 2 in a quasi-home game situation, but to be honest I'm just hoping they don't embarrass themselves again. It's good to have goals. On to the tournaments!
MID-AMERICAN CONFERENCE
For most of the season Akron was a fringe-y bubble team. They had dominated the MAC, going 13-0 with just four out-of-conference losses (3 in overtime) marring an otherwise perfect record - losses to Oklahoma State, Detroit, and Creighton are acceptable, losing to Coastal Carolina is not. Unfortunately a non-conference slate then with only a win over Middle Tennessee and a whole slew of cupcakes kept them from serious at-large consideration, and a loss to Buffalo last Saturday (RPI #226), the suspension of starting point guard and leading assist man Alex Abreu for possession of five pounds of pot, and a follow up loss to Kent State (RPI #146) have the Zips not only on the outside looking in of an at-large bid, but no longer the favorite in this tournament.
FAVORITE: Ohio. With Akron's issues with Smokey the Bobcats, who despite finishing out MAC play at 14-2 would have to describe this season as disappointing. This is an exciting team with a kick-ass point guard in D.J. Cooper (and the money he took) who will look for answers but that ain't fun so he'll get in the pit and try to love someone. Seriously though this is basically the same team who beat Georgetown in the tournament two years ago and made the Sweet 16 last season, they just whiffed on every opportunity to get a good win and had a super shitty schedule, thus win or in. Dangerous team. I hope they win.
SLEEPER: Eastern Michigan. Kent State probably has a better chance of winning but I wouldn't really consider them a sleeper the way EMU is. They 7 seed, the Eagles interest me because they are the top MAC team in 3-point defense, shot blocking, and stealing the ball. They're a pretty dynamic defensive team so you never know. They're also horrific offensively so you kind of do.
W's PICK: Ohio. Bawitdaba da bang a dang diggy diggy diggy said the boogy said up jump the boogy.
MID-EASTERN ATLANTIC CONFERENCE
Let's just get this out of the way: the MEAC is terrible, and they're terrible every year. Outside of the SWAC there's no other conference more guaranteed to end up in the play-in game. On one of the old college basketball games on playstation I used to have you had an option to to start from a bottom of the barrel program and try to work your way up by winning enough games - of the 10 options at least five of them were MEAC schools and it might have been more. That being said, of the six #15 seeds to knock off a #2 in round 1 two of them (Coppin State and Norfolk State) were MEAC schools. So I guess that's something.
FAVORITE: Norfolk State. Despite losing their top two scorers from last year's Missouri beating squad, the Spartans crushed the MEAC going 16-0. For some reason I now have a very uneasy feeling that if Tubby is let go by the Gophers Norfolk's State guy is going to come up far too often for my tastes.
SLEEPER: North Carolina Central. Interesting that Norfolk went 16-0, UNCC went 15-1, and they never played each other. They also don't have a single win between the two that remotely resembles a quality victory, but that's far less surprising. UNCC could be tricky because they are the top ranked defense in the conference in almost every single advanced metric. Of the eight main ones the Eagles (what's with all the Eagles, man?) rank 1st in six of them. Seems relevant.
W's PICK: Norfolk State. I've spent too much time on this conference as is, so I'll just take the team that's been there before and has the #1 seed. Why complicate things?
WESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE
If you remember when I wrote about the Sun Belt (this would make you kind of a weirdo) I said I was rooting so hard for Middle Tennessee because I wasn't sure they'd get an at-large if they lost and I really wanted to see them in the tournament (they lost in the semis and it's looking dicey). This is relevant because before last week Louisiana Tech looked a lot like Middle Tennessee but less fancy. They were 16-0 in the conference and 26-3 overall, and even if the computer numbers weren't in their favor they were going to be tough to ignore if they ran the table and then fell in the WAC Tournament Final. Luckily for the seeding committee they decided to go in the tank and got crushed by both New Mexico State (by 18) and Denver (by 24) and that is that.
FAVORITE: Denver. Although La Tech retained the #1 seed despite that late swoon, Vegas recognizes them for the pretender they were and installed Denver as the favorite. With good reason, considering the Pioneers rank tops in the conference in both offensive and defensive efficiency. It could all be fraudulent since Denver is another team that fits the Wisconsin/Virginia mold, but they're an interesting team who would absolutely have a chance to bore a team into a loss if they make the NCAAs.
SLEEPER: Utah State. I'm a huge fan of the Aggies, as you would know if you paid more attention to me you asshole, and this is a bit of an off year for them since they usually dominate these WAC dorks. You can't really count out a Stew Morrill led USU team, can you? Other than this year, I mean.
W's PICK: Louisiana Tech. Yes, the Bulldogs only played one non-shitty team in non-conference and lost to Texas A&M by 12. Yes, they somehow lost to McNeese State and Northwestern State. Yes, when they had a bye mid-week late in the season they scheduled Central Baptist College and won by 70 rather than having a decent team on the docket. Maybe, I'm starting to rethink this pick but it's too late to go back now.
BIG EAST CONFERENCE
And here we go. Big time conferences get rolling starting with the old Big East in it's last hurrah. Plenty still to play for, as Georgetown has as shot at a #1 while Louisville could possibly get it as well depending on what happens around the country. Syracuse is looking to find whatever it seems to have lost and Marquette wants to show it's more than just a home court bully, while both Villanova and Cincinnati are looking to shore up their at-large bids.
FAVORITE: Georgetown. The Hoyas, Louisville, and Marquette tied a top the conference at 14-4 with G-Town getting the favorable draw thanks to tie-breakers. They should also be considered the favorite because they are also coming in hot. The Hoya defense is coming on strong (the last team to score 70+ in non-overtime against the Hoyas was Pitt on January 8th) and Otto Porter is starting to give off a big John Wallace type vibe where I can see him putting the team's offense on his back and the Hoyas riding the defense deep into the tourney. I'm having a hell of a time trying to convince myself not to put them in the Final Four.
SLEEPER: Providence. They're a bit of a deep sleeper what with the 9 seed and all, but with so many good teams to find a true sleeper can be a little bit tougher in a conference like this. The Friars boast the league's leading scorer in Bryce Cotton and after a rough start to the season that included losses to Penn State, Brown, and DePaul they've started to really come together. Providence has won seven of its last nine with the only losses to Syracuse and UCONN on the road. Winning four games is probably a bit much but, you know, it's happened before.
W's PICK: Louisville. The number one defensive team in the country who both causes a ton of turnovers and holds opponents to terrible shooting percentages. Their record this year is 26-5, and the five losses are to potential number 1 seed Duke by 5 (neutral site), by 2 to Syracuse when they were still good, by 9 at Villanova when the Wildcats were on that tear where they also beat Cuse, at potential #1 seed Georgetown by 2, and at Notre Dame in five Overtimes. There may be more exciting teams and more upside-y teams, but the absolute safest bet, regardless of 1 or 2 seed, to get to the Final Four this year is the Cardinals.
MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERENCE
The conference that has risen the most in national rankings over the last few years, the MWC actually ranks third at kenpom behind the Big Ten and Big East. As good as it is, however, there's not really much to play for here. New Mexico, UNLV, Colorado State, and San Diego State are already locked in, and Boise State, by way of wins over SDSU and CSU in the last week and a half is probably in as well, and with an opening round match-up against the Aztecs again they can't hurt themselves.
FAVORITE: New Mexico. Believe it or not this a damn good league, and the Lobos going 13-3 in league play is damn impressive. There are nine teams in this league and five of them rank in the top 50 (kenpom) with two more in the top 100. The Lobos not only rolled the league, but also picked up wins over Davidson, UCONN, Valpo, and Cincy this year. You're going to be tempted to underrate New Mexico when you fill out your bracket, but I'd disrecommend that.
SLEEPER: Air Force. It's tough to find a sleeper in a league where the top 5 teams are awesome and the bottom two suck (well, Wyoming has sucked after a great start after kicking leading scorer Luke Martinez off the team for something as innocent as getting a 15-yard running start before kicking an unconscious person in the head in a bar fight), but Air Force fits the bill well enough. They play in the Wisconsin/Virginia style of slow but efficient play and that can always fuck people up and they've beaten four out of the five top teams in the MWC this year. They've also been terrible outside Colorado Springs, and the tournament is not in Colorado Springs, so they're probably hosed.
W's PICK: UNLV. The tournament is not in Colorado Springs but it is in Las Vegas, and more specifically at the Thomas & Mack Center which just so happens to be the Runnin' Rebels' home gym. In a league that tightly packed at the top home court could make all the difference. Plus I had this picture.
Lots of stuff happened this weekend, including Kentucky, Baylor, and Boise got the big wins they needed while Iowa State, Ole Miss, and Cincy avoided what would have been crushing losses. Belmont made there be one less bubble team by winning the autobid in the OVC (Davidson won the SoCon's autobid last night but they probably weren't getting an at-large in any case), and Oklahoma (probably still in), Colorado (probably still in), and Louisiana Tech (needs autobid now) picked up ugly losses along with the Gophers.
What does this all mean? Well, along with the pairings coming out and showing the Gophers taking on Illinois in the opening round of the Big Ten Tournament it means the Gophers are in no matter what. Illinois's RPI is 42, which means a loss is just fine and a win would be a very good win. With most projectionists putting the Gophers in the 8-10 range there's no way a good loss knocks them out. So congratulations?
Ideally the Gophers would beat Illinois and Indiana and jump up to a six seed to avoid facing a 1 or 2 in a quasi-home game situation, but to be honest I'm just hoping they don't embarrass themselves again. It's good to have goals. On to the tournaments!
MID-AMERICAN CONFERENCE
For most of the season Akron was a fringe-y bubble team. They had dominated the MAC, going 13-0 with just four out-of-conference losses (3 in overtime) marring an otherwise perfect record - losses to Oklahoma State, Detroit, and Creighton are acceptable, losing to Coastal Carolina is not. Unfortunately a non-conference slate then with only a win over Middle Tennessee and a whole slew of cupcakes kept them from serious at-large consideration, and a loss to Buffalo last Saturday (RPI #226), the suspension of starting point guard and leading assist man Alex Abreu for possession of five pounds of pot, and a follow up loss to Kent State (RPI #146) have the Zips not only on the outside looking in of an at-large bid, but no longer the favorite in this tournament.
FAVORITE: Ohio. With Akron's issues with Smokey the Bobcats, who despite finishing out MAC play at 14-2 would have to describe this season as disappointing. This is an exciting team with a kick-ass point guard in D.J. Cooper (and the money he took) who will look for answers but that ain't fun so he'll get in the pit and try to love someone. Seriously though this is basically the same team who beat Georgetown in the tournament two years ago and made the Sweet 16 last season, they just whiffed on every opportunity to get a good win and had a super shitty schedule, thus win or in. Dangerous team. I hope they win.
SLEEPER: Eastern Michigan. Kent State probably has a better chance of winning but I wouldn't really consider them a sleeper the way EMU is. They 7 seed, the Eagles interest me because they are the top MAC team in 3-point defense, shot blocking, and stealing the ball. They're a pretty dynamic defensive team so you never know. They're also horrific offensively so you kind of do.
W's PICK: Ohio. Bawitdaba da bang a dang diggy diggy diggy said the boogy said up jump the boogy.
MID-EASTERN ATLANTIC CONFERENCE
Let's just get this out of the way: the MEAC is terrible, and they're terrible every year. Outside of the SWAC there's no other conference more guaranteed to end up in the play-in game. On one of the old college basketball games on playstation I used to have you had an option to to start from a bottom of the barrel program and try to work your way up by winning enough games - of the 10 options at least five of them were MEAC schools and it might have been more. That being said, of the six #15 seeds to knock off a #2 in round 1 two of them (Coppin State and Norfolk State) were MEAC schools. So I guess that's something.
FAVORITE: Norfolk State. Despite losing their top two scorers from last year's Missouri beating squad, the Spartans crushed the MEAC going 16-0. For some reason I now have a very uneasy feeling that if Tubby is let go by the Gophers Norfolk's State guy is going to come up far too often for my tastes.
SLEEPER: North Carolina Central. Interesting that Norfolk went 16-0, UNCC went 15-1, and they never played each other. They also don't have a single win between the two that remotely resembles a quality victory, but that's far less surprising. UNCC could be tricky because they are the top ranked defense in the conference in almost every single advanced metric. Of the eight main ones the Eagles (what's with all the Eagles, man?) rank 1st in six of them. Seems relevant.
W's PICK: Norfolk State. I've spent too much time on this conference as is, so I'll just take the team that's been there before and has the #1 seed. Why complicate things?
WESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE
If you remember when I wrote about the Sun Belt (this would make you kind of a weirdo) I said I was rooting so hard for Middle Tennessee because I wasn't sure they'd get an at-large if they lost and I really wanted to see them in the tournament (they lost in the semis and it's looking dicey). This is relevant because before last week Louisiana Tech looked a lot like Middle Tennessee but less fancy. They were 16-0 in the conference and 26-3 overall, and even if the computer numbers weren't in their favor they were going to be tough to ignore if they ran the table and then fell in the WAC Tournament Final. Luckily for the seeding committee they decided to go in the tank and got crushed by both New Mexico State (by 18) and Denver (by 24) and that is that.
FAVORITE: Denver. Although La Tech retained the #1 seed despite that late swoon, Vegas recognizes them for the pretender they were and installed Denver as the favorite. With good reason, considering the Pioneers rank tops in the conference in both offensive and defensive efficiency. It could all be fraudulent since Denver is another team that fits the Wisconsin/Virginia mold, but they're an interesting team who would absolutely have a chance to bore a team into a loss if they make the NCAAs.
SLEEPER: Utah State. I'm a huge fan of the Aggies, as you would know if you paid more attention to me you asshole, and this is a bit of an off year for them since they usually dominate these WAC dorks. You can't really count out a Stew Morrill led USU team, can you? Other than this year, I mean.
W's PICK: Louisiana Tech. Yes, the Bulldogs only played one non-shitty team in non-conference and lost to Texas A&M by 12. Yes, they somehow lost to McNeese State and Northwestern State. Yes, when they had a bye mid-week late in the season they scheduled Central Baptist College and won by 70 rather than having a decent team on the docket. Maybe, I'm starting to rethink this pick but it's too late to go back now.
BIG EAST CONFERENCE
And here we go. Big time conferences get rolling starting with the old Big East in it's last hurrah. Plenty still to play for, as Georgetown has as shot at a #1 while Louisville could possibly get it as well depending on what happens around the country. Syracuse is looking to find whatever it seems to have lost and Marquette wants to show it's more than just a home court bully, while both Villanova and Cincinnati are looking to shore up their at-large bids.
FAVORITE: Georgetown. The Hoyas, Louisville, and Marquette tied a top the conference at 14-4 with G-Town getting the favorable draw thanks to tie-breakers. They should also be considered the favorite because they are also coming in hot. The Hoya defense is coming on strong (the last team to score 70+ in non-overtime against the Hoyas was Pitt on January 8th) and Otto Porter is starting to give off a big John Wallace type vibe where I can see him putting the team's offense on his back and the Hoyas riding the defense deep into the tourney. I'm having a hell of a time trying to convince myself not to put them in the Final Four.
SLEEPER: Providence. They're a bit of a deep sleeper what with the 9 seed and all, but with so many good teams to find a true sleeper can be a little bit tougher in a conference like this. The Friars boast the league's leading scorer in Bryce Cotton and after a rough start to the season that included losses to Penn State, Brown, and DePaul they've started to really come together. Providence has won seven of its last nine with the only losses to Syracuse and UCONN on the road. Winning four games is probably a bit much but, you know, it's happened before.
W's PICK: Louisville. The number one defensive team in the country who both causes a ton of turnovers and holds opponents to terrible shooting percentages. Their record this year is 26-5, and the five losses are to potential number 1 seed Duke by 5 (neutral site), by 2 to Syracuse when they were still good, by 9 at Villanova when the Wildcats were on that tear where they also beat Cuse, at potential #1 seed Georgetown by 2, and at Notre Dame in five Overtimes. There may be more exciting teams and more upside-y teams, but the absolute safest bet, regardless of 1 or 2 seed, to get to the Final Four this year is the Cardinals.
MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERENCE
The conference that has risen the most in national rankings over the last few years, the MWC actually ranks third at kenpom behind the Big Ten and Big East. As good as it is, however, there's not really much to play for here. New Mexico, UNLV, Colorado State, and San Diego State are already locked in, and Boise State, by way of wins over SDSU and CSU in the last week and a half is probably in as well, and with an opening round match-up against the Aztecs again they can't hurt themselves.
FAVORITE: New Mexico. Believe it or not this a damn good league, and the Lobos going 13-3 in league play is damn impressive. There are nine teams in this league and five of them rank in the top 50 (kenpom) with two more in the top 100. The Lobos not only rolled the league, but also picked up wins over Davidson, UCONN, Valpo, and Cincy this year. You're going to be tempted to underrate New Mexico when you fill out your bracket, but I'd disrecommend that.
SLEEPER: Air Force. It's tough to find a sleeper in a league where the top 5 teams are awesome and the bottom two suck (well, Wyoming has sucked after a great start after kicking leading scorer Luke Martinez off the team for something as innocent as getting a 15-yard running start before kicking an unconscious person in the head in a bar fight), but Air Force fits the bill well enough. They play in the Wisconsin/Virginia style of slow but efficient play and that can always fuck people up and they've beaten four out of the five top teams in the MWC this year. They've also been terrible outside Colorado Springs, and the tournament is not in Colorado Springs, so they're probably hosed.
W's PICK: UNLV. The tournament is not in Colorado Springs but it is in Las Vegas, and more specifically at the Thomas & Mack Center which just so happens to be the Runnin' Rebels' home gym. In a league that tightly packed at the top home court could make all the difference. Plus I had this picture.
Wednesday, October 10, 2012
NCAA Hoops Preview: Teams 59-53
I could sit here and write up some thoughts on the baseball playoffs, but I'm going to save all that jazz for one big post maybe later this week. Instead, here are some more NCAAB Previews, teams #59-#53.
59. NEW MEXICO LOBOS. Losing double-double machine Drew Gordon is going to be tough to handle, but the Lobos get their entire back court back from last season's NCAA team and Alford has turned these guys into kind of a MWC dynasty - or at least in the mix at the top every year. This season will depend largely on just how good Kendall Williams can be. He's had two very good years so far in Albuquerque, and if he can take the next step and become one of the best players in the league they should be back in the running for a league title and/or an at-large bid. Plus Williams is from Ranco Cucamonga and if you don't think that's a fun city name to say then you're probably already dead.
58. GEORGETOWN HOYAS. G-Town loses a ton of talent in three departing starters (their three top scorers last year), including Henry Sims who took over for Greg Monroe as the big man with guard skills. Luckily they've got a heck of a player back in Otto Porter who had a stellar freshman year and now becomes the Hoyas alpha dog. He doesn't have the ball-handling or outside touch that Sims and Monroe displayed, but he is already an excellent passer and smart player with the ball so he could easily develop into that same mold. In the last two seasons the Hoyas have lost all of their big 3 guards and their two best post players so they're going to be looking for somebody to become a true playmaker. If you play fantasy college basketball (TREVOR DON'T READ THIS) look at Markel Starks as a sleeper. He's shown he can be an explosive scorer at times and this season he'll be their #1 perimeter option.
57. LEHIGH MOUNTAIN HAWKS. Naturally everyone loved Lehigh beating Duke because Duke is satan and hitler all in one, but Lehigh has the look of a team that isn't done quite yet. They have four of their starters back from last year (their four top scorers) including last year's Patriot League player of the year and hero to all C.J. McCollum (30 pts vs. Duke) as well as Gabe Knutson (17 & 8 vs. Duke). Can a team from the Patriot get an at-large bid? It would be incredibly difficult and I don't think it's ever happened, but maybe this is the year. Although the league RPI will be way down and thus drag Lehigh's down, they will have some chances to pick-up big wins they'll need to have a chance. They open at Baylor, then if they can get past Robert Morris in the Preseason NIT (no sure thing) they would get Pitt and a win their would send them to Madison Square Garden for two more cracks at big-time schools (Michigan, Kansas State, Virginia). They also play North Texas and Quinnipiac who could both end up as RPI Top 100 schools, as could conference foe Bucknell. Win enough of those games and then lose only 1-2 in conference/conf. tournament play? Probably better to win the conference tournament, but watch that Lehigh/Pitt game, could be huge for the little guys.
56. PITT PANTHERS. Hey, speaking of Pitt, here they are. And if you're sick of the Gophers having a terrible non-conference schedule you should get a look at Pitt's. If they don't get to Madison Square Garden that is absolutely brutally bad other than Detroit. I suppose they'll play plenty of good teams in conference play, but man having Bethune-Cookman, Delaware State, and Kennesaw State all on the same schedule should be outlawed. Also it seems Travon Woodall now goes by Tray, which is not as irritating as Terrell Holloway going by Tu, Michael Gilchrist or Maurice Drew adding an extra hyphenated last name, or especially Titus Young adding SR. to the back of his jersey after having a son named Titus, but it's still irritating and I hope Pitt loses every game. I never liked them anyway. Brandin Knight sucked and Carl Krauser was even worse. [NOTE: Somehow I completely missed that Trey Ziegler transferred here from CMU and is eligible this year, so bump them up a few spots.]
55. MARYLAND TERRAPINS. Maryland loses leading scorer Terrell Stoglin to, well, not the NBA since he didn't get drafted but to somewhere, but this might be one of those addition by subtraction kind of situations which yes is possible just look here smart guy: (-2)-(-4) = 2 IN YOUR FACE. But what that means for the Terps is that a bunch of guys who are used to standing around watching Stoglin jack shots (38% of shots taken by Maryland last year with him on the floor were his, 3rd highest in the NCAA) are suddenly going to have freedom to play ball and will be like a bunch of college freshman living away from their parents for the first time and will probably go a little nuts. Of course, they're also pretty unproven due to never getting the ball, so Maryland should be a mixed bag this year. Like your mom.
54. UTEP MINERS. I know what you're thinking, and to be honest I'm not really sure why I have UTEP this high either, but I liked watching this team (the couple of times I found them on TV last year) and I think there may be something brewing here. They're a really young team and John Bohannon may be the best center you've never heard of. He made a huge leap from his freshman to sophomore year, and if he does something similar again this season he could be the best center in Conference USA that I can think of right now. They also get their point guard back who was one of the top assisters in the conference and I don't know man. They're young and fun like Kate Upton right now, and the way the team is constructed kind of reminds me of those awesome Memphis teams. Or something. I don't know, but now you're thinking about Kate Upton so it doesn't really matter what I say anymore.
53. TEMPLE OWLS. The Owls lose two thirds of their back court to graduation, but should still contend at the top of the A-10 because returning guard Khalif Wyatt may be the best player in the conference. I also like him because Temple is kind of a consistently successful but boring program, and Wyatt threw a little excitement out there this summer when he was arrested for soliciting a prostitute in Atlantic City. He cooperated and only had to pay a fine and do some community service so he'll back and ready to play, but I can't wait to see some of the signs and hear some nice chants when Temple is on the road. Should be fun.
Friday, October 28, 2011
NCAA Basketball Preview - Big East
Ok, conference realignment has officially become out-of-control. The Big East already has 16 teams, but now because they're losing Syracuse (sad) and Pitt (who cares) and have now seen TCU pull out of joining to become a Big 12 team instead they overreact in the opposite direction and add Houston, Southern Methodist, Central Florida, Air Force, and Boise State. Except Air Force and Boise State will only be joining for football. This move does absolutely nothing for basketball except to further weaken a Big East already weakened by the defections, unless you think the recent strong recruiting seen by Houston is sustainable - and I don't.
At first I thought all this conference realignment stuff was kind of cool, but at this point it's just gotten completely out of hand. I don't even know who went where or who didn't or what's merging. Like that Conference USA/Mountain West merger - does that effect hoops in any way? I don't know. It's too confusing. I think it's time to just to to one big conference. Easier that way.
1. UCONN HUSKIES. How are they #1 in a tough conference despite losing Kemba Walker? Because everybody else is back, including Jeremy Lamb (who started to look like a star at the end of last year) and Alex Oriakhi (who is always solid defensively and now his offense is coming along), as well as a group of sophomores (of which Lamb is a part) who were ranked as the #20 recruiting class in the country last season by ESPN. Oh, and they have one of the best classes in the country coming in with PG Ryan Boatright (#42 rivals), SF DeAndre Daniels (#10), and C Andre Drummond (#2). Drummond is ridiculous and he's probably going to make people cry, and will likely be the #1 overall pick in next year's NBA Draft if it happens. Seriously, UCONN is a big-time threat to win back-to-back titles. Doubtful, yes, but a better chance than most.
2. SYRACUSE ORANGE. God Boeheim is just incredible - great class after great class after great class. He's followed up last year's top five class with a top 10 class this year, adding SG Michael Carter-Williams (Rivals #29 overall) and C Rakeem Christmas (#27) to last year's group that included C Fab Melo (#16), SF C.J. Fair (#94), and SG Dion Waiters (#29). Scoop Jardine and Brandon Triche will be back on the perimeter to run things and awkwardly heave the ball at the rim, and scoring machine Kris Joseph is back for more. The only real question is if Christmas (freshman) or Melo (super-subpar first year) can fill in for Rick "Automatic Double-Double" Jackson. If they can, this is a national title contender. If not, they'll be lucky to make it out of the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament.
3. LOUISVILLE CARDINALS. I have a feeling about this Louisville team, and it's not necessarily a good one. I do think they'll be good and a legit Final Four contender, but I also think they're very ripe for some ugly nights. It will basically all come down to Peyton Siva and how well he can control the offense, because with Preston Knowles gone he's now in charge of a whole bunch of talent, but a whole bunch of talent that's a little bit crazy. The Cards have everything you'd need - excellent point guard, dead-eye shooting, perimeter and interior defense, and three incoming swingmen who all rank on in Rivals Top 70 (and a center as well), so really it's going to come down to how well they mesh - and that is going to depend on Siva.
4. PITT PANTHERS. I think at some point Pitt turned itself into kind of a minor dynasty (conference only). They somehow shed the legacy of crappy overrated point guards like Brandin Knight, Carl Krauer, and LeVance Fields and are now actually acquiring good, quality players like Ashton Gibbs who is probably the best player in the conference. They do lose quite a bit with three starters (including the giant version of kid from Kid N Play which makes me sad), and Gibbs biggest help now is a guy who is already hurt and missing most/all the preseason practice time, a point guard who makes LeVance Fields look like Craig Hodges, and a former big time recruit whose failed to average more than 5 points per game in his two seasons at Pitt. But you watch, Gibbs will find a way, and Pitt will break into the top 10 at some point this year. Big fan of this kid.
5. VILLANOVA WILDCATS. Villanova is turning into Chucker University, and this year is shaping up to be no exception as Maalik Wayns looks to become the next in the recent line of all-time great chuckers following Scottie Reynolds, the two Coreys, Allen Ray, and Randy Foye. The real great news is that Wayns looks like he has a chance to be the greatest of them all. His shooting percentage of 40% last year and 3-point percentage of just 27% were some of the worst numbers any of these chuckers put up at any point in their careers, but that didn't stop Wayns from taking the third most shots (and 3-pointers) on the team behind the two Coreys. Really, the stars could be aligning for a spectacular two final years of his career. I'm so excited.
6. CINCINNATI BEARCATS. Why do I have some trouble believing in Cincy? It could be because there best player is named Yancy, but really there's a lot to like about the Bearcats this year. Besides the aforementioned Yancy Gates, their leading scorer and rebounder last year, they also return essentially every player from last year's team that knocked off a very good Missouri team in the NCAA Tournament last year, and also add Shaquille Thomas and Jermaine Sanders, two athletic wings who will fit well in Mick Cronin's hyper-defensive system. The biggest issue here will be Cashmere Wright, who is back to play the point for a third year. Except he can't shoot, turns the ball over too much, and isn't a great distributor. So I guess they got that goin' for 'em.
7. MARQUETTE EAGLES. Jimmy Butler was a do-everything type player and he's gone, but luckily for Marquette Darius Johnson-Odom is back and he's a do-everything type as well who was pretty much just as good as Butler last year and has a chance to be an absolute super star this year without having to share touches with Butler. Jae Crowder lived up to his billing as one of the better JuCo players last season, looking unstoppable on the block at times despite a shaky shooting percentage and could be a big-time player this year. The biggest key for Marquette will be the backcourt with Vander Blue coming off a disappointing freshman year where he had more turnovers than assists and shot at a worse percentage than Maalik Wayns. Junior Cadougan is serviceable but not a star, so they really need Blue to live up to his pre-college hype.
8. WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS. Joel Mazzulla, captain bricklayer himself, is gone along with their best scorer in Casey Mitchell and their best defender, or at least one of, in John Flowers. Even so, Huggy Bear will have these guys in contention for an NCAA bid because they're always going to play tough defense and Kevin Jones is back and ripe for a Big East player of the year type season. The biggest key will be Truck Bryant, who will have to pretty much main the point alone with Maz gone. Assuming he can avoid running into cars this season, WVU should be ok.
9. NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH. Obviously most of these previews are me combining my limited knowledge on these teams with what I can read, both online and in print, and trying to come up with some decent conclusions. So basically a lot of guessing. One thing I'm not guessing about, however, and I'll make it a guarantee, is that you're going to be sick of hearing about Tim Abromaitis by the end of this season. Seriously, between him and Scott Martin the Irish are going to once again be the great white hope, except now the third wheel in little Hansbrough is gone and I have this crazy feeling Abromaitis is going to have a Harangody like season, only less behemoth-y. Put on your gritty, hustly, heady, smart player shoes because it's going to be a rough year if you watch any of there games. And god help you if they actually end up good. God. Help. You.
10. GEORGETOWN HOYAS. For the last several years the Hoyas have been a big-time March threat - at least on paper - and it's been on the strength of their guard play. Unfortunately for them, they're in the habit of getting bounced to early and two of their three stud guards are now gone. The one remaining, Jason Clark, was more of the third wheel type, and will now have to become the #1 option, and basically the difference for the Hoyas between a good or bad season, because between him and Hollis Thompson - who is the only offensive big man of consequence who is returning, they're going to have to be most of the offense for this team. There are three highly regarded freshmen big men coming in, but other than throwing a right hook at some chinaman who knows if they'll be worth a damn.
11. RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS. Ever since Quincy Douby left Rutgers hasn't been able to build any momentum. Even when they snag a great recruiting class with two Top 50 players like they did in 2008 things fall apart and both players ended up transferring before the end of their careers. That being said, a new coach and another excellent class (ranked #24 nationally and 6th in the conference by Rivals) has hope welling up once again in Jersey. If they ever get good the RAC gives them a nice home court advantage, so remember that when you're gambling.
12. SOUTH FLORIDA BULLS. You remember Anthony Crater? The point guard who came aboard at Ohio State in the same class that netted the Buckeyes B.J. Mullens and William Buford, then quit 2 months into the season after shooting 3-15 from the floor in 10 games because he didn't get to start (keep in mind OSU's guards were Evan Turner, Buford, David Lighty, Jon Diebler, and Jeremie Simmons)? He's played at USF the last two seasons and averaged less than 4 points per game both years despite playing over 25 minutes per game, and was kicked off the team in May for "violating team rules." I don't know why, but that story makes me laugh. Probably because he seemed like such a douche.
13. SETON HALL PIRATES. I don't know why I'm so drawn to Seton Hall. Maybe it's because I fell in love with Shaheen Holloway, or maybe it's because a dude I played against (and got crushed by) in high school ended up going there (Darius Lane), but I also half-root for the Pirates and actually have a Seton Hall hat somewhere. Unfortunately this year is going to be a rough one for the Pirates with Jeremy Hazell, the Big East's third leading scorer last year, and Jeff Robinson, the team's second leading scorer, both gone along with a whole bunch of supporting bits. Herb Pope is still a freaking stud with bullets in his body and Jordan Theodore can score, but there just isn't much here unless Pope goes insane. More than usual, I mean.
14. ST. JOHNS RED STORM. They would be higher, seeing as how Lavin came in and immediately grabbed a top 3 class to come play in NYC, but then things unraveled and three of the newcomers were ruled ineligible, and they just happened to be the #23, #51, and #68 recruits in the country. There's still good talent coming in, but St. John's is trying to replace essentially everybody from last year and losing those three hurts, especially because the #51 guy - Jakarr Sampson - has already transferred out (maybe the other's have too but I'm not looking it up because I've already spent too much time on this one). Lavin will turn things around in a hurry, maybe just in slightly less of a hurry than it looked. I wonder if he's gone crooked yet or if he's waiting another year.
15. PROVIDENCE FRIARS. Marshon Brooks was really, really good at scoring. He was also the rare player who was kind of a chucker, but was an efficient chucker. I'm not really sure why I'm talking about him because he's now in the NBA if there was an NBA, but it's probably because I don't know anything else about Providence. They do have two other double-digit scorers back from last year. Shrug.
16. DEPAUL BLUE DEMONS. Talk about horrible. I read somewhere that DePaul has gone 2-52 in Big East play over the last three seasons. I knew they were bad, but assumed that was a misprint and looked it up myself. Sure enough, they're 2-52. And it's not fixing to change. Despite being in the heart of Chicago, a nice high school hoops town, they can't get anybody to attend DePaul because of Dumpster Arena. I just don't know how they're going to get out of this mess. I guess they have a little momentum, what with Cleveland Melvin winning Big East Rookie of the Year last year and stealing DeJuan Marrero away from the Gophers recently, but yuck. You'd think one of Illinois, Northwestern, DePaul, or UIC would have to be good, but here we are.
At first I thought all this conference realignment stuff was kind of cool, but at this point it's just gotten completely out of hand. I don't even know who went where or who didn't or what's merging. Like that Conference USA/Mountain West merger - does that effect hoops in any way? I don't know. It's too confusing. I think it's time to just to to one big conference. Easier that way.
1. UCONN HUSKIES. How are they #1 in a tough conference despite losing Kemba Walker? Because everybody else is back, including Jeremy Lamb (who started to look like a star at the end of last year) and Alex Oriakhi (who is always solid defensively and now his offense is coming along), as well as a group of sophomores (of which Lamb is a part) who were ranked as the #20 recruiting class in the country last season by ESPN. Oh, and they have one of the best classes in the country coming in with PG Ryan Boatright (#42 rivals), SF DeAndre Daniels (#10), and C Andre Drummond (#2). Drummond is ridiculous and he's probably going to make people cry, and will likely be the #1 overall pick in next year's NBA Draft if it happens. Seriously, UCONN is a big-time threat to win back-to-back titles. Doubtful, yes, but a better chance than most.
2. SYRACUSE ORANGE. God Boeheim is just incredible - great class after great class after great class. He's followed up last year's top five class with a top 10 class this year, adding SG Michael Carter-Williams (Rivals #29 overall) and C Rakeem Christmas (#27) to last year's group that included C Fab Melo (#16), SF C.J. Fair (#94), and SG Dion Waiters (#29). Scoop Jardine and Brandon Triche will be back on the perimeter to run things and awkwardly heave the ball at the rim, and scoring machine Kris Joseph is back for more. The only real question is if Christmas (freshman) or Melo (super-subpar first year) can fill in for Rick "Automatic Double-Double" Jackson. If they can, this is a national title contender. If not, they'll be lucky to make it out of the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament.
3. LOUISVILLE CARDINALS. I have a feeling about this Louisville team, and it's not necessarily a good one. I do think they'll be good and a legit Final Four contender, but I also think they're very ripe for some ugly nights. It will basically all come down to Peyton Siva and how well he can control the offense, because with Preston Knowles gone he's now in charge of a whole bunch of talent, but a whole bunch of talent that's a little bit crazy. The Cards have everything you'd need - excellent point guard, dead-eye shooting, perimeter and interior defense, and three incoming swingmen who all rank on in Rivals Top 70 (and a center as well), so really it's going to come down to how well they mesh - and that is going to depend on Siva.
4. PITT PANTHERS. I think at some point Pitt turned itself into kind of a minor dynasty (conference only). They somehow shed the legacy of crappy overrated point guards like Brandin Knight, Carl Krauer, and LeVance Fields and are now actually acquiring good, quality players like Ashton Gibbs who is probably the best player in the conference. They do lose quite a bit with three starters (including the giant version of kid from Kid N Play which makes me sad), and Gibbs biggest help now is a guy who is already hurt and missing most/all the preseason practice time, a point guard who makes LeVance Fields look like Craig Hodges, and a former big time recruit whose failed to average more than 5 points per game in his two seasons at Pitt. But you watch, Gibbs will find a way, and Pitt will break into the top 10 at some point this year. Big fan of this kid.
5. VILLANOVA WILDCATS. Villanova is turning into Chucker University, and this year is shaping up to be no exception as Maalik Wayns looks to become the next in the recent line of all-time great chuckers following Scottie Reynolds, the two Coreys, Allen Ray, and Randy Foye. The real great news is that Wayns looks like he has a chance to be the greatest of them all. His shooting percentage of 40% last year and 3-point percentage of just 27% were some of the worst numbers any of these chuckers put up at any point in their careers, but that didn't stop Wayns from taking the third most shots (and 3-pointers) on the team behind the two Coreys. Really, the stars could be aligning for a spectacular two final years of his career. I'm so excited.
6. CINCINNATI BEARCATS. Why do I have some trouble believing in Cincy? It could be because there best player is named Yancy, but really there's a lot to like about the Bearcats this year. Besides the aforementioned Yancy Gates, their leading scorer and rebounder last year, they also return essentially every player from last year's team that knocked off a very good Missouri team in the NCAA Tournament last year, and also add Shaquille Thomas and Jermaine Sanders, two athletic wings who will fit well in Mick Cronin's hyper-defensive system. The biggest issue here will be Cashmere Wright, who is back to play the point for a third year. Except he can't shoot, turns the ball over too much, and isn't a great distributor. So I guess they got that goin' for 'em.
7. MARQUETTE EAGLES. Jimmy Butler was a do-everything type player and he's gone, but luckily for Marquette Darius Johnson-Odom is back and he's a do-everything type as well who was pretty much just as good as Butler last year and has a chance to be an absolute super star this year without having to share touches with Butler. Jae Crowder lived up to his billing as one of the better JuCo players last season, looking unstoppable on the block at times despite a shaky shooting percentage and could be a big-time player this year. The biggest key for Marquette will be the backcourt with Vander Blue coming off a disappointing freshman year where he had more turnovers than assists and shot at a worse percentage than Maalik Wayns. Junior Cadougan is serviceable but not a star, so they really need Blue to live up to his pre-college hype.
8. WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS. Joel Mazzulla, captain bricklayer himself, is gone along with their best scorer in Casey Mitchell and their best defender, or at least one of, in John Flowers. Even so, Huggy Bear will have these guys in contention for an NCAA bid because they're always going to play tough defense and Kevin Jones is back and ripe for a Big East player of the year type season. The biggest key will be Truck Bryant, who will have to pretty much main the point alone with Maz gone. Assuming he can avoid running into cars this season, WVU should be ok.
9. NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH. Obviously most of these previews are me combining my limited knowledge on these teams with what I can read, both online and in print, and trying to come up with some decent conclusions. So basically a lot of guessing. One thing I'm not guessing about, however, and I'll make it a guarantee, is that you're going to be sick of hearing about Tim Abromaitis by the end of this season. Seriously, between him and Scott Martin the Irish are going to once again be the great white hope, except now the third wheel in little Hansbrough is gone and I have this crazy feeling Abromaitis is going to have a Harangody like season, only less behemoth-y. Put on your gritty, hustly, heady, smart player shoes because it's going to be a rough year if you watch any of there games. And god help you if they actually end up good. God. Help. You.
10. GEORGETOWN HOYAS. For the last several years the Hoyas have been a big-time March threat - at least on paper - and it's been on the strength of their guard play. Unfortunately for them, they're in the habit of getting bounced to early and two of their three stud guards are now gone. The one remaining, Jason Clark, was more of the third wheel type, and will now have to become the #1 option, and basically the difference for the Hoyas between a good or bad season, because between him and Hollis Thompson - who is the only offensive big man of consequence who is returning, they're going to have to be most of the offense for this team. There are three highly regarded freshmen big men coming in, but other than throwing a right hook at some chinaman who knows if they'll be worth a damn.
11. RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS. Ever since Quincy Douby left Rutgers hasn't been able to build any momentum. Even when they snag a great recruiting class with two Top 50 players like they did in 2008 things fall apart and both players ended up transferring before the end of their careers. That being said, a new coach and another excellent class (ranked #24 nationally and 6th in the conference by Rivals) has hope welling up once again in Jersey. If they ever get good the RAC gives them a nice home court advantage, so remember that when you're gambling.
12. SOUTH FLORIDA BULLS. You remember Anthony Crater? The point guard who came aboard at Ohio State in the same class that netted the Buckeyes B.J. Mullens and William Buford, then quit 2 months into the season after shooting 3-15 from the floor in 10 games because he didn't get to start (keep in mind OSU's guards were Evan Turner, Buford, David Lighty, Jon Diebler, and Jeremie Simmons)? He's played at USF the last two seasons and averaged less than 4 points per game both years despite playing over 25 minutes per game, and was kicked off the team in May for "violating team rules." I don't know why, but that story makes me laugh. Probably because he seemed like such a douche.
13. SETON HALL PIRATES. I don't know why I'm so drawn to Seton Hall. Maybe it's because I fell in love with Shaheen Holloway, or maybe it's because a dude I played against (and got crushed by) in high school ended up going there (Darius Lane), but I also half-root for the Pirates and actually have a Seton Hall hat somewhere. Unfortunately this year is going to be a rough one for the Pirates with Jeremy Hazell, the Big East's third leading scorer last year, and Jeff Robinson, the team's second leading scorer, both gone along with a whole bunch of supporting bits. Herb Pope is still a freaking stud with bullets in his body and Jordan Theodore can score, but there just isn't much here unless Pope goes insane. More than usual, I mean.
14. ST. JOHNS RED STORM. They would be higher, seeing as how Lavin came in and immediately grabbed a top 3 class to come play in NYC, but then things unraveled and three of the newcomers were ruled ineligible, and they just happened to be the #23, #51, and #68 recruits in the country. There's still good talent coming in, but St. John's is trying to replace essentially everybody from last year and losing those three hurts, especially because the #51 guy - Jakarr Sampson - has already transferred out (maybe the other's have too but I'm not looking it up because I've already spent too much time on this one). Lavin will turn things around in a hurry, maybe just in slightly less of a hurry than it looked. I wonder if he's gone crooked yet or if he's waiting another year.
15. PROVIDENCE FRIARS. Marshon Brooks was really, really good at scoring. He was also the rare player who was kind of a chucker, but was an efficient chucker. I'm not really sure why I'm talking about him because he's now in the NBA if there was an NBA, but it's probably because I don't know anything else about Providence. They do have two other double-digit scorers back from last year. Shrug.
16. DEPAUL BLUE DEMONS. Talk about horrible. I read somewhere that DePaul has gone 2-52 in Big East play over the last three seasons. I knew they were bad, but assumed that was a misprint and looked it up myself. Sure enough, they're 2-52. And it's not fixing to change. Despite being in the heart of Chicago, a nice high school hoops town, they can't get anybody to attend DePaul because of Dumpster Arena. I just don't know how they're going to get out of this mess. I guess they have a little momentum, what with Cleveland Melvin winning Big East Rookie of the Year last year and stealing DeJuan Marrero away from the Gophers recently, but yuck. You'd think one of Illinois, Northwestern, DePaul, or UIC would have to be good, but here we are.
Monday, January 31, 2011
Week in Review 1.31.2011
Can somebody please explain to me what is going in college basketball this year? Michigan State, a final four team last year that lost nothing more than Raymar Morgan and replaced him with more talent, is in danger of missing the NCAA Tournament and lost to Michigan for the first time in 23 years, and at home. Which was Michigan's first road win all year. Syracuse, who started the season at 18-0, has now lost four straight, which included losses to two other top 10 teams in Pitt and Villanova. Teams who both lost this week - Villanova twice. Duke, who looked nearly unstoppable most of the year, lost to St. Johns, the same team that lost to both St. Bonaventure and Fordham. BYU gave San Diego State it's first loss on the year, and then turned around and got beat by New Mexico, Texas A&M lost to lowly Nebraska, and UCONN completely blew a home game they had in hand against Louisville. Two of the top five, 3 of the top 10, and 5 of the top 15 teams in the preseason poll aren't even ranked right now. It's insane. I know it's great for a fun season and an even better NCAA Tournament, but it's been hell on my bank account so let's just knock this crap off.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. St. Johns Red Storm. If ever a team could have used a win like this it's St. Johns, and beating Duke by 15 is an awfully nice chip to have in your pocket when March rolls around. They're in good shape RPI-wise thanks to a very tough strength of schedule, and a 4-5 Big East is probably ok, but this game gives them a huge marquee win and stops a three-game skid, not to mention the shot of confidence they probably get considering they just completely blew the doors off the Blue Devils. The schedule gets easier going forward here, so you can expect to see the Red Storm with a bid for the NCAA Tournament. Which is what I called, way back in October. Seriously, sometimes it's hard being so smart.
2. Penn State Nittany Lions. You gotta admit, they're doing what they can. It's an uphill climb considering they're just 12-8 and missed every chance to get a quality non-conference win, but they're now 5-4 in a good Big Ten, the RPI is moving up (now #45), the strength of schedule is good (#6), the win over Duquesne is looking better and better, and, even if Michigan State is free-falling, the wins over Illinois and Wisconsin will hold up nicely. Talor Battle is getting help from PSU's trio of senior forwards - David Jackson, Andrew Jones, and especially Jeff Brooks - and that makes this team very dangerous. Their home court advantage has been quite strong this year, if they can steal a game or two on the road they'll be in the big dance.
3. Duquesne Dukes. At the beginning of the year, the Atlantic 10 was supposed to be very strong at the top with Xavier, Temple, Dayton, and Richmond, and the rest of the schools kind of blah. Three of the four have been good, but Dayton has sucked (which they deserve) and Duquesne has not only snuck into their spot, but might be the best team in the conference. They beat Temple earlier this year, and after shellacking Dayton on Saturday are now 7-0 in conference play and tied with Xavier at the top. The schedule is favorable, with Xavier still to come at home and both Dayton and Richmond on the road, but everything else is against pretty bad squads. I don't know if they can get an at-large - the RPI sits at #89 despite the gaudy record, but it would be a shame if they fall short because this is a really fun team to watch. Or at least it was fun watching them destroy the most hated team in the country. I'm referring to Dayton and it's dirty hippie fans.
4. Darius Morris. I said he's the best point guard in the country and he really helps bolster my argument when he does things like he did against Iowa on Sunday: 12 pts, 11 assists, 10 rebounds for just the third triple-double in Michigan history (Manny Harris, Gary Grant). Considering Kalin Lucas and Talor Battle are not point guards, and I have no idea what McCamey is but he sure as hell isn't a PG (more later), that leaves Morris up against Jordan Taylor, Michael Thompson, Al Nolen, Bryce Cartwright, Aaron Craft, Lewis Jackson, and Jordan Hulls. Not a bad group, and Craft might end up the best of the bunch eventually, but I'd take Morris for sure over every other one of those guys except maybe Jordan Taylor. That one would be close, but if you need a pure distributor Morris is your man. If you need more scoring go with Taylor. Or roofies.
5. Georgetown Hoyas. I'm not sure if there's a tougher team to figure out than the Hoyas. They're clearly good, but are they GOOD or just good? They have three awesome guards and a suspect interior, so are they are March sleeper because of their guard play or a March quick out because of a weak interior? I don't know either, but they are looking like they might be hitting their stride, so if you want to jump on the wagon I'd do it now. Their win over St. Johns was expected, but doing it by 25 was not, and then going to Villanova and knocking off the #7 Wildcats wasn't. Austin Freeman is a stone cold pimp (scored 10 of G-Town's last 12 against Nova, and assisted on the other 2), Jason Clark is a dead-eye from deep, and Chris Wright just makes it all happen. If they get anything from their post guys they're a final four team. Although they could also go out in the first round. Just like every other god damn team in this crazy stupid year.
WHO SUCKED
1. Syracuse Orange. First their defense was exploited on the road at Pitt, then Villanova shot the lights out to beat them in Syracuse, then they were shredded by Seton Hall - in Syracuse - and followed that up by dropping yet another game to Marquette. So that makes four straight losses piggybacking their 18-0 start. Three of the four losses are explainable, even if the home loss to Nova is unfortunate, but that loss at home to Seton Hall is troubling and rather inexplicable - especially since they lost by 22. The Hall had only two prior conference wins, over bottom feeders DePaul and South Florida, but they roll into the Carrier Dome and run the Orange out of it. Here's what I think happened - Pitt exploited the zone and showed how athletic guards with some size could dribble-penetrate into the gaps and either score or find open teammates and everybody else has copied them. Each team they've lost to on this skid has guards who can do just that. They're done. Cooked. Over.
2. Michigan State Spartans. Well you knew this was coming, and these guys are just a mess. A home loss to Michigan and an comeback overtime one-point win against Indiana, also at home, say that this isn't a team that's starting slowly and will peak in March. No, this is more like a team that sucks and will be lucky to sniff the NCAA tournament, let alone peak during it. Suddenly, despite being nearly the same team that made the Final Four last year, they're turning the ball over like crazy and playing nearly zero defense - not a great combination. Their strength of schedule is good, which will keep them in the postseason picture if they can turn it around or at least play like an average team, but it's looking less and less likely that it's even a possibility. If Wisconsin doesn't implode late in the game in East Lansing, Jeremiah Rivers doesn't miss free throws down the stretch, and Northwestern doesn't blow a lead with 30 seconds to play, the Spartans are 2-7 and in 10th place. I know that's a lot of IFs, but it just underscores how awful they've been. And I really don't have a clue why.
3. Demetri McCamey. I've said it a million times, but I'll say it again: Demetri McCamey is not a point guard and Illinois will not win their first round NCAA game with him running the show. He proved me right yet again in the Illini's awful loss @ Indiana this week - Indiana's first win over a ranked team in their last 20 tries. McCamey's line: 6 points on 2-11 shooting (2-7 from three, nice job getting in the lane, guy), with 3 assists and 5 turnovers. Even worse, down the stretch Illinois had Brandon Paul running the point, who isn't a point guard either. Trust me you guys, I know the numbers look like something a good PG would put up (15 pts and 7 assists per game), but just watch him. Or watch Illinois in any late game situation, several of which they've screwed up already this year. He's awful. Please, I beg you, pick against them in round 1 of the tournament. It's a lock.
4. Butler Bulldogs. I'm actually really sick of writing about Butler, but they keep showing up here because they are a huge disappointment and they suck. This week they did an absolute awesome job of making sure they don't get an at-large bid, losing to both Milwaukee (at home) and Valparaiso (on the road), dropping their Horizon record to 6-4, overall record to 14-8, and chances of getting an at-large to about 1.4%. Of course, I'm sure they'll win their conference tournament and sneak in, and everybody will think they are a trendy upset pick, but you'll know they suck and pick against them. I swear to god if there's a first round Butler/Illinois matchup I'm going to the light something on fire.
5. The Coreys. No, not Haim and Feldman. Those guys rocked in everything, even Dream a Little Dream and that Lost Boys movie with that hot chick from the final season of the O.C. (pictured). I mean the stupid fake Coreys from Villanova, who are less irritating than Scottie Reynolds but still make me want to punch my own nuts with a pepper grinder. Villanova had a rough week, losing to Providence on the road and then at home to Georgetown, dropping them to 5-3 in the Big East, and fake Corey Haim and fake Corey Feldman didn't help. Corey Fisher (Feldman) shot 7-20 in the two games, while Corey Stokes (Haim), whose only identifiable skill is scoring (shooting heroin) went 4-23 (Four. For. Twenty. Three) and registered four turnovers against just one assist. Those two aren't the only reason they went 0-2 this week, because the whole team sucked outside of Maalik Wayns (who we'll call Nicole Eggert), but the Corey's are what make this team go. Just like grandpa's cadillac. Probably end up about the same, too.
Oh, and I missed the second half of the Gopher game because I was at a kids' birthday party, so my thoughts on that are: did you really expect them to win @ Purdue? Just worry about the games they could/should win. Let's just win in Bloomington here, mmmmkay? This one is terrifying.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. St. Johns Red Storm. If ever a team could have used a win like this it's St. Johns, and beating Duke by 15 is an awfully nice chip to have in your pocket when March rolls around. They're in good shape RPI-wise thanks to a very tough strength of schedule, and a 4-5 Big East is probably ok, but this game gives them a huge marquee win and stops a three-game skid, not to mention the shot of confidence they probably get considering they just completely blew the doors off the Blue Devils. The schedule gets easier going forward here, so you can expect to see the Red Storm with a bid for the NCAA Tournament. Which is what I called, way back in October. Seriously, sometimes it's hard being so smart.
2. Penn State Nittany Lions. You gotta admit, they're doing what they can. It's an uphill climb considering they're just 12-8 and missed every chance to get a quality non-conference win, but they're now 5-4 in a good Big Ten, the RPI is moving up (now #45), the strength of schedule is good (#6), the win over Duquesne is looking better and better, and, even if Michigan State is free-falling, the wins over Illinois and Wisconsin will hold up nicely. Talor Battle is getting help from PSU's trio of senior forwards - David Jackson, Andrew Jones, and especially Jeff Brooks - and that makes this team very dangerous. Their home court advantage has been quite strong this year, if they can steal a game or two on the road they'll be in the big dance.
3. Duquesne Dukes. At the beginning of the year, the Atlantic 10 was supposed to be very strong at the top with Xavier, Temple, Dayton, and Richmond, and the rest of the schools kind of blah. Three of the four have been good, but Dayton has sucked (which they deserve) and Duquesne has not only snuck into their spot, but might be the best team in the conference. They beat Temple earlier this year, and after shellacking Dayton on Saturday are now 7-0 in conference play and tied with Xavier at the top. The schedule is favorable, with Xavier still to come at home and both Dayton and Richmond on the road, but everything else is against pretty bad squads. I don't know if they can get an at-large - the RPI sits at #89 despite the gaudy record, but it would be a shame if they fall short because this is a really fun team to watch. Or at least it was fun watching them destroy the most hated team in the country. I'm referring to Dayton and it's dirty hippie fans.
4. Darius Morris. I said he's the best point guard in the country and he really helps bolster my argument when he does things like he did against Iowa on Sunday: 12 pts, 11 assists, 10 rebounds for just the third triple-double in Michigan history (Manny Harris, Gary Grant). Considering Kalin Lucas and Talor Battle are not point guards, and I have no idea what McCamey is but he sure as hell isn't a PG (more later), that leaves Morris up against Jordan Taylor, Michael Thompson, Al Nolen, Bryce Cartwright, Aaron Craft, Lewis Jackson, and Jordan Hulls. Not a bad group, and Craft might end up the best of the bunch eventually, but I'd take Morris for sure over every other one of those guys except maybe Jordan Taylor. That one would be close, but if you need a pure distributor Morris is your man. If you need more scoring go with Taylor. Or roofies.
5. Georgetown Hoyas. I'm not sure if there's a tougher team to figure out than the Hoyas. They're clearly good, but are they GOOD or just good? They have three awesome guards and a suspect interior, so are they are March sleeper because of their guard play or a March quick out because of a weak interior? I don't know either, but they are looking like they might be hitting their stride, so if you want to jump on the wagon I'd do it now. Their win over St. Johns was expected, but doing it by 25 was not, and then going to Villanova and knocking off the #7 Wildcats wasn't. Austin Freeman is a stone cold pimp (scored 10 of G-Town's last 12 against Nova, and assisted on the other 2), Jason Clark is a dead-eye from deep, and Chris Wright just makes it all happen. If they get anything from their post guys they're a final four team. Although they could also go out in the first round. Just like every other god damn team in this crazy stupid year.
WHO SUCKED
1. Syracuse Orange. First their defense was exploited on the road at Pitt, then Villanova shot the lights out to beat them in Syracuse, then they were shredded by Seton Hall - in Syracuse - and followed that up by dropping yet another game to Marquette. So that makes four straight losses piggybacking their 18-0 start. Three of the four losses are explainable, even if the home loss to Nova is unfortunate, but that loss at home to Seton Hall is troubling and rather inexplicable - especially since they lost by 22. The Hall had only two prior conference wins, over bottom feeders DePaul and South Florida, but they roll into the Carrier Dome and run the Orange out of it. Here's what I think happened - Pitt exploited the zone and showed how athletic guards with some size could dribble-penetrate into the gaps and either score or find open teammates and everybody else has copied them. Each team they've lost to on this skid has guards who can do just that. They're done. Cooked. Over.
2. Michigan State Spartans. Well you knew this was coming, and these guys are just a mess. A home loss to Michigan and an comeback overtime one-point win against Indiana, also at home, say that this isn't a team that's starting slowly and will peak in March. No, this is more like a team that sucks and will be lucky to sniff the NCAA tournament, let alone peak during it. Suddenly, despite being nearly the same team that made the Final Four last year, they're turning the ball over like crazy and playing nearly zero defense - not a great combination. Their strength of schedule is good, which will keep them in the postseason picture if they can turn it around or at least play like an average team, but it's looking less and less likely that it's even a possibility. If Wisconsin doesn't implode late in the game in East Lansing, Jeremiah Rivers doesn't miss free throws down the stretch, and Northwestern doesn't blow a lead with 30 seconds to play, the Spartans are 2-7 and in 10th place. I know that's a lot of IFs, but it just underscores how awful they've been. And I really don't have a clue why.
3. Demetri McCamey. I've said it a million times, but I'll say it again: Demetri McCamey is not a point guard and Illinois will not win their first round NCAA game with him running the show. He proved me right yet again in the Illini's awful loss @ Indiana this week - Indiana's first win over a ranked team in their last 20 tries. McCamey's line: 6 points on 2-11 shooting (2-7 from three, nice job getting in the lane, guy), with 3 assists and 5 turnovers. Even worse, down the stretch Illinois had Brandon Paul running the point, who isn't a point guard either. Trust me you guys, I know the numbers look like something a good PG would put up (15 pts and 7 assists per game), but just watch him. Or watch Illinois in any late game situation, several of which they've screwed up already this year. He's awful. Please, I beg you, pick against them in round 1 of the tournament. It's a lock.
4. Butler Bulldogs. I'm actually really sick of writing about Butler, but they keep showing up here because they are a huge disappointment and they suck. This week they did an absolute awesome job of making sure they don't get an at-large bid, losing to both Milwaukee (at home) and Valparaiso (on the road), dropping their Horizon record to 6-4, overall record to 14-8, and chances of getting an at-large to about 1.4%. Of course, I'm sure they'll win their conference tournament and sneak in, and everybody will think they are a trendy upset pick, but you'll know they suck and pick against them. I swear to god if there's a first round Butler/Illinois matchup I'm going to the light something on fire.
5. The Coreys. No, not Haim and Feldman. Those guys rocked in everything, even Dream a Little Dream and that Lost Boys movie with that hot chick from the final season of the O.C. (pictured). I mean the stupid fake Coreys from Villanova, who are less irritating than Scottie Reynolds but still make me want to punch my own nuts with a pepper grinder. Villanova had a rough week, losing to Providence on the road and then at home to Georgetown, dropping them to 5-3 in the Big East, and fake Corey Haim and fake Corey Feldman didn't help. Corey Fisher (Feldman) shot 7-20 in the two games, while Corey Stokes (Haim), whose only identifiable skill is scoring (shooting heroin) went 4-23 (Four. For. Twenty. Three) and registered four turnovers against just one assist. Those two aren't the only reason they went 0-2 this week, because the whole team sucked outside of Maalik Wayns (who we'll call Nicole Eggert), but the Corey's are what make this team go. Just like grandpa's cadillac. Probably end up about the same, too.
Oh, and I missed the second half of the Gopher game because I was at a kids' birthday party, so my thoughts on that are: did you really expect them to win @ Purdue? Just worry about the games they could/should win. Let's just win in Bloomington here, mmmmkay? This one is terrifying.
Monday, January 10, 2011
Week in Review - 01.10.11
A loss by just three, on the road against one of the best team's in the country, is definitely nothing to be ashamed of. If you look at the Gophers three Big Ten losses, all three to road teams and all three competitive games, you really don't have anything to worry about because they should be fine. I'm still a bit nervous because I don't think they've looked good and they should/could be playing better, but I can see why people could be optimistic. I don't really think we can evaluate this team until after Thursday's game, when they play Purdue at home. It will be their first time playing a Big Ten contender at home, and if they win we can all smile and say everything is going to be alright.
Of course, what is not alright is the play Tubby drew up at the end of that game against the Buckeyes. Gophers down three with 15 seconds to play and the ball, and a huge opportunity. So they run a play that consists of a single screen for Hoffarber, who, don't forget, is the only person on the team who can shoot and who everybody, including one of the best defensive teams in the country, knows is going to be the the guy they're going to run the play for. When Ohio State jumped the screen and Hoff wasn't open, nobody knew what to do because nobody was doing anything else. There was no other option on the play. It was a silly, ridiculous, and stupid play with no options other than the obvious, and no back-up plan after the Buckeyes predictably focused all their efforts on stopping Blake. Is everybody still sure that losing Devoe (heading to Oregon, BTW) isn't such a big deal?
Good final result, terrible final play. Moving on.....
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Cincinnati Bearcats. Every year, the Cincinnati vs. Xavier game is one of the most hotly contested games of the year. The "Crosstown Shootout" isn't as well known as some other rivalries, but that doesn't make it any less intense (including a double-OT thriller with multiple technicals and benches clearing last year). And lately, it's been dominated by Xavier, who had won the last three. Not this year, because the suddenly relevant Bearcats have done the old "addition by subtraction" routine, and are now 15-1 on the season after blowing out X by 20 (and losing to Nova on Sunday), despite the loss of super star Lance Stephenson to the NBA after last season. I guess he can't really have been that much of a star, if you really think about it.
2. Jeff Brooks. I've talked on here before about how Penn State missed every chance to get a signature - or even quality - win in their non-conference schedule and how that made their margin of error razor thin if they wanted to get Talor Battle into an NCAA Tournament before he graduated. An early road loss to Michigan made it look like they could forget it, but they picked up a very big win over the weekend against Michigan State that means they are still alive, and it's mainly thanks to Brooks, who had 17 points and 12 boards against Sparty, following up another double-double earlier in the week against Purdue. Brooks first three seasons at PSU were pretty nondescript, but he's taken this break-out senior thing to another level, averaging 14 points and 8 rebounds per game on the year and giving Battle a legitimate threat to take some pressure off of him. I mean, there's still pretty much no way they're going to make the NCAA Tournament, but at least they're trying.
3. Colorado Buffaloes. Colorado had been pegged as a bit of a sleeper coming into the year due to their two NBA-type players, Alec Burks and Cory Higgins, but they struggled a bit out of the gate with early losses to Georgia, San Francisco, and Harvard and it was starting to look like those two weren't going to be able to do enough to push Colorado to a bid. This weekend, however, they picked up a huge win, beating #8 Missouri 89-76 behind a combined 54 points and 18 rebounds from their two stars (who are both guards, by the way). The Big 12 should be good enough this year where if Colorado can beat everybody but Kansas at home - and Missouri was the next biggest obstacle - and beat the bad teams on the road they should be able to grab the program's first NCAA bid since Chauncey Billups was running around Boulder.
4. Georgia Bulldogs. Similar to Colorado, Georgia was another borderline tournament sleeper type team. And similarly to the Buffaloes, the Bulldogs didn't really get off to a great start. They didn't have any bad losses, but they took part in the Old Spice Classic and walked away with nothing more than a win over Manhattan after losing in OT to Notre Dame and getting dropped by Temple. Since then they've won nine straight, but there were no real good wins, and a few struggles against bad teams (1 pt win over Georgia Tech, 3 pt win over Mercer, 7 pt win over Eastern Kentucky) and were generally unimpressive. Well, they finally picked up their signature win on Saturday, knocking off the 11th ranked (though overrated) Kentucky Wildcats. And I'm going to tell you something: if you get a chance to watch Georgia, take it. Their small forward, Travis Leslie, is the kind of guy whose athleticism rivals and may surpass Rodney Williams. Plus he averages 14 points and 8 rebounds per game, and probably never gets pulled in crunch-time on the road against a nationally ranked team for a freshman.
5. Missouri State Bears. The Bears (coached by Cuonzo Martin, FYI) won a huge statement game last night, beating Wichita State in Wichita to move to 5-0 in the conference, now a game ahead of the Shockers and the Creighton Blue Jays - another team they've already beat on the road. In fact, the Bears also won at Northern Iowa, which means they've already traveled to, and beaten, three of the top 5-6 teams in the conference, so they are definitely in the driver's seat to win the Missouri Valley. Of course, it's starting to look more and more like the MVC is going to be a one-bid conference this year, so none of this really matters at all and the only thing that matters is who gets hot in March. Kind of anti-climactic and waste of time-y, if you ask me.
WHO SUCKED
1. Florida State Seminoles. Here is a list of team's Auburn has lost to this year: UNC-Asheville, Samford, Campbell, Jacksonville, Rutgers, South Florida, and Presbyterian. Only the South Florida game was on the road, which is why it is so shocking that Florida State, an NCAA Tournament caliber team, went to Auburn and lost to the Tigers this week, and then followed that up with an understandable but unfortunate loss at Virginia Tech. And all this coming on the heels of a fabulous upset win over Baylor. I think it's fairly safe to say nobody really knows what is going on with this team, other than that they play great defense and are putrid offensively. A real recipe for success.
2. Georgetown Hoyas. Losing to West Virginia isn't exactly the most embarrassing thing in the world, even if it is at home, but I'm putting the Hoyas here this week because doesn't it seem like they do this every single year? They start out hot and get themselves ranked inside or near the top 10, drop a bunch of games they should win in conference play but win enough to keep a relatively high ranking, and then get housed in the NCAA tournament. It really feels like they do this all the time to me, so I never really buy into the Hoyas. I will say that this year, rather than relying on a big, plodding center they have three very, very good guards, which is a much better recipe for success, but I think I've put G-Town in the same category as Kansas and Duke - other than an exception once in a while, they nearly always fail to perform to expectations in March.
3. David Akers. Excellent work, Akers. Way to have the worst game of your career in a the playoffs, in a game where your two missed kicks (from 41 and 34, distances that are almost automatic for him) absolutely made a massive difference in this game. It's very likely the Eagles win this game if he makes those two kicks. Instead we have to put up with the stupid Packers for another week, at least. Thanks Akers. You may now consider yourself an enemy of this blog. Make your time.
4. Butler Bulldogs. There are certain things that just can't happen when you're a mid-major trying to get a bid. One of the biggest is that you can't lose by over 20 to a conference foe who is not a contender for the league crown. So guess what Butler did? Yep, they got their clocks cleaned by Milwaukee, a team sitting at 8-9 overall with several ugly losses. So let's look at Butler. Right now the are 12-5, with an RPI of 23 and Strength of Schedule of 16. Wins over Florida State and Washington State are good, while the loss to Milwaukee and an earlier loss to Evansville are bad. Knowing that the SoS and RPI will go down as conference play continues, and knowing that Butler really doesn't have another chance at a big-time win (I don't think they're in bracket busters this year), they are very, very close to having to win out to grab at at-large. I wouldn't say they're quite there yet, but they'd do well to avoid more than 1 or 2 more losses.
5. Kansas City Chiefs. I don't even know who to blame here the most. Dwayne Bowe for not being a part of the offense (zero catches)? Matt Cassell for not even throwing to him (zero targets) and throwing three picks? Or Todd Haley for being unable to design a game plan which would find ways to get Bowe the ball, and, at the same time, when the passing game wasn't working he still managed to only give the ball to Jamaal Charles nine times. And don't forget the defense for surrendering 30 points to team known more for defense than offense. In any case, just a complete implosion by a team playing their first playoff game in like 80 years. Well done.
Honorable mention for awesomeness goes to the Seattle Seahawks. After getting down early it would have been easy to roll-over and die, but they fought back and ended up kicking the crap out of New Orleans. Although in retrospect we should have seen this coming - home team, massive underdog, not only did they get no respect, they got no respect in a "we need to change the rules because this team is too shitty to be in the playoffs" kind of no respect, and that's the worst kind. Very good win, and this run here by Marshawn Lynch is like whoa:
Of course, what is not alright is the play Tubby drew up at the end of that game against the Buckeyes. Gophers down three with 15 seconds to play and the ball, and a huge opportunity. So they run a play that consists of a single screen for Hoffarber, who, don't forget, is the only person on the team who can shoot and who everybody, including one of the best defensive teams in the country, knows is going to be the the guy they're going to run the play for. When Ohio State jumped the screen and Hoff wasn't open, nobody knew what to do because nobody was doing anything else. There was no other option on the play. It was a silly, ridiculous, and stupid play with no options other than the obvious, and no back-up plan after the Buckeyes predictably focused all their efforts on stopping Blake. Is everybody still sure that losing Devoe (heading to Oregon, BTW) isn't such a big deal?
Good final result, terrible final play. Moving on.....
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Cincinnati Bearcats. Every year, the Cincinnati vs. Xavier game is one of the most hotly contested games of the year. The "Crosstown Shootout" isn't as well known as some other rivalries, but that doesn't make it any less intense (including a double-OT thriller with multiple technicals and benches clearing last year). And lately, it's been dominated by Xavier, who had won the last three. Not this year, because the suddenly relevant Bearcats have done the old "addition by subtraction" routine, and are now 15-1 on the season after blowing out X by 20 (and losing to Nova on Sunday), despite the loss of super star Lance Stephenson to the NBA after last season. I guess he can't really have been that much of a star, if you really think about it.
2. Jeff Brooks. I've talked on here before about how Penn State missed every chance to get a signature - or even quality - win in their non-conference schedule and how that made their margin of error razor thin if they wanted to get Talor Battle into an NCAA Tournament before he graduated. An early road loss to Michigan made it look like they could forget it, but they picked up a very big win over the weekend against Michigan State that means they are still alive, and it's mainly thanks to Brooks, who had 17 points and 12 boards against Sparty, following up another double-double earlier in the week against Purdue. Brooks first three seasons at PSU were pretty nondescript, but he's taken this break-out senior thing to another level, averaging 14 points and 8 rebounds per game on the year and giving Battle a legitimate threat to take some pressure off of him. I mean, there's still pretty much no way they're going to make the NCAA Tournament, but at least they're trying.
3. Colorado Buffaloes. Colorado had been pegged as a bit of a sleeper coming into the year due to their two NBA-type players, Alec Burks and Cory Higgins, but they struggled a bit out of the gate with early losses to Georgia, San Francisco, and Harvard and it was starting to look like those two weren't going to be able to do enough to push Colorado to a bid. This weekend, however, they picked up a huge win, beating #8 Missouri 89-76 behind a combined 54 points and 18 rebounds from their two stars (who are both guards, by the way). The Big 12 should be good enough this year where if Colorado can beat everybody but Kansas at home - and Missouri was the next biggest obstacle - and beat the bad teams on the road they should be able to grab the program's first NCAA bid since Chauncey Billups was running around Boulder.
4. Georgia Bulldogs. Similar to Colorado, Georgia was another borderline tournament sleeper type team. And similarly to the Buffaloes, the Bulldogs didn't really get off to a great start. They didn't have any bad losses, but they took part in the Old Spice Classic and walked away with nothing more than a win over Manhattan after losing in OT to Notre Dame and getting dropped by Temple. Since then they've won nine straight, but there were no real good wins, and a few struggles against bad teams (1 pt win over Georgia Tech, 3 pt win over Mercer, 7 pt win over Eastern Kentucky) and were generally unimpressive. Well, they finally picked up their signature win on Saturday, knocking off the 11th ranked (though overrated) Kentucky Wildcats. And I'm going to tell you something: if you get a chance to watch Georgia, take it. Their small forward, Travis Leslie, is the kind of guy whose athleticism rivals and may surpass Rodney Williams. Plus he averages 14 points and 8 rebounds per game, and probably never gets pulled in crunch-time on the road against a nationally ranked team for a freshman.
5. Missouri State Bears. The Bears (coached by Cuonzo Martin, FYI) won a huge statement game last night, beating Wichita State in Wichita to move to 5-0 in the conference, now a game ahead of the Shockers and the Creighton Blue Jays - another team they've already beat on the road. In fact, the Bears also won at Northern Iowa, which means they've already traveled to, and beaten, three of the top 5-6 teams in the conference, so they are definitely in the driver's seat to win the Missouri Valley. Of course, it's starting to look more and more like the MVC is going to be a one-bid conference this year, so none of this really matters at all and the only thing that matters is who gets hot in March. Kind of anti-climactic and waste of time-y, if you ask me.
WHO SUCKED
1. Florida State Seminoles. Here is a list of team's Auburn has lost to this year: UNC-Asheville, Samford, Campbell, Jacksonville, Rutgers, South Florida, and Presbyterian. Only the South Florida game was on the road, which is why it is so shocking that Florida State, an NCAA Tournament caliber team, went to Auburn and lost to the Tigers this week, and then followed that up with an understandable but unfortunate loss at Virginia Tech. And all this coming on the heels of a fabulous upset win over Baylor. I think it's fairly safe to say nobody really knows what is going on with this team, other than that they play great defense and are putrid offensively. A real recipe for success.
2. Georgetown Hoyas. Losing to West Virginia isn't exactly the most embarrassing thing in the world, even if it is at home, but I'm putting the Hoyas here this week because doesn't it seem like they do this every single year? They start out hot and get themselves ranked inside or near the top 10, drop a bunch of games they should win in conference play but win enough to keep a relatively high ranking, and then get housed in the NCAA tournament. It really feels like they do this all the time to me, so I never really buy into the Hoyas. I will say that this year, rather than relying on a big, plodding center they have three very, very good guards, which is a much better recipe for success, but I think I've put G-Town in the same category as Kansas and Duke - other than an exception once in a while, they nearly always fail to perform to expectations in March.
3. David Akers. Excellent work, Akers. Way to have the worst game of your career in a the playoffs, in a game where your two missed kicks (from 41 and 34, distances that are almost automatic for him) absolutely made a massive difference in this game. It's very likely the Eagles win this game if he makes those two kicks. Instead we have to put up with the stupid Packers for another week, at least. Thanks Akers. You may now consider yourself an enemy of this blog. Make your time.
4. Butler Bulldogs. There are certain things that just can't happen when you're a mid-major trying to get a bid. One of the biggest is that you can't lose by over 20 to a conference foe who is not a contender for the league crown. So guess what Butler did? Yep, they got their clocks cleaned by Milwaukee, a team sitting at 8-9 overall with several ugly losses. So let's look at Butler. Right now the are 12-5, with an RPI of 23 and Strength of Schedule of 16. Wins over Florida State and Washington State are good, while the loss to Milwaukee and an earlier loss to Evansville are bad. Knowing that the SoS and RPI will go down as conference play continues, and knowing that Butler really doesn't have another chance at a big-time win (I don't think they're in bracket busters this year), they are very, very close to having to win out to grab at at-large. I wouldn't say they're quite there yet, but they'd do well to avoid more than 1 or 2 more losses.
5. Kansas City Chiefs. I don't even know who to blame here the most. Dwayne Bowe for not being a part of the offense (zero catches)? Matt Cassell for not even throwing to him (zero targets) and throwing three picks? Or Todd Haley for being unable to design a game plan which would find ways to get Bowe the ball, and, at the same time, when the passing game wasn't working he still managed to only give the ball to Jamaal Charles nine times. And don't forget the defense for surrendering 30 points to team known more for defense than offense. In any case, just a complete implosion by a team playing their first playoff game in like 80 years. Well done.
Honorable mention for awesomeness goes to the Seattle Seahawks. After getting down early it would have been easy to roll-over and die, but they fought back and ended up kicking the crap out of New Orleans. Although in retrospect we should have seen this coming - home team, massive underdog, not only did they get no respect, they got no respect in a "we need to change the rules because this team is too shitty to be in the playoffs" kind of no respect, and that's the worst kind. Very good win, and this run here by Marshawn Lynch is like whoa:
Tuesday, November 30, 2010
NCAA Basketball: Thanksgiving Tournament Wrap
A hell of a lot of good basketball just wrapped up with the pre-Thanksgiving and Thanksgiving tournaments the last two weeks, so much so that it would be easy to miss some of the important stuff, especially with all the drinking and eating and football watching and generally being a complete moron doing really stupid stuff going on. So I'm here to help. Tournament by tournament, here's what you need to know:
PUERTO RICO TIP OFF
Championship: Minnesota Gophers over West Virginia Mountaineers
Biggest positive: Minnesota. I wasn't really sure where they'd fall in the Big Ten pecking order. Somewhere in the middle, likely, but towards the top of that middle or towards the bottom? Well, wins over three potential tournament teams help answer that and push the Gophers towards the top of the conference.
Biggest negative: North Carolina Tar Heels. A year after the worst season for UNC in recent memory, the Tar Heels started this year with a lot of positivity and a lofty #8 ranking the country, but losses to both Minnesota and Vanderbilt show that this team isn't quite there yet. A loss to one or the other could be shrugged off, since both are possible NCAA Tournament teams, but losses to both sends up a bit of a red flag.
Also of note: Davidson 64, Western Kentucky 51. This game, as well as WKU's narrow 2-point win over Hofstra, say that the Hilltoppers aren't going to be making the NCAA Tournament as at at-large.
NIT SEASON TIP OFF
Championship: Tennessee Volunteers over Villanova Wildcats
Biggest positive: Tennessee. All their losses from last season had me convinced they were badly overrated and would be in the NIT at best this year, and then all the Bruce Pearl nonsense solidified that thought for me. Turns out their better than I gave them credit for, and the combination of super freshman Tobias Harris on the inside and dynamic scorers Cameron Tatum and Scotty Hopson on the wings is looking like enough to drive the Vols to success.
Biggest negative: Wake Forest Demon Deacons. "Wait, I didn't see them in New York" is what you might be saying, and you're right, but that's because they got bounced out of the qualifying round - the "gimme" round held on their home floor. Of course they also drew Virginia Commonwealth who was probably the favorite to come out of that region, but it just confirms that this is going to be a dark, dark year in Winston-Salem. If this loss to VCU (by 21, if I didn't mention it) doesn't cement it, the earlier loss to Stetson and subsequent loss to Winthrop (both also at home) are pretty big clues. But the biggest clue? Iowa was favored over them in their ACC/Big Ten Challenge matchup tonight, and the game was at Wake.
Also of note: VCU 89, UCLA 85. Not content with just getting to New York, VCU then went ahead and beat UCLA to nab a third-place finish. That's going to go a long way in getting the Colonial multiple bids this year.
COACHES VS CANCER CLASSIC
Championship: Pitt Panthers over Texas Longhorns
Biggest positive: Texas. Last year the Longhorns had all the talent in the world, were ranked #1 at one point, and then death spiraled down and didn't even receive an NCAA bid. This year saw a lot of turnover, and I'm not sure anybody really knew what to expect, as usual with a Rick Barnes team. Beating Illinois and then hanging right with Pitt before losing by two shows they have some talent, it's just a matter of if they put it all together.
Biggest negative: Cory Joseph. In the two games in New York, Joseph shot just 3-13, including 0-4 from three, with 5 assists and 3 turnovers, and threw up a ridiculous shot at the end of the final with the Longhorns down two when he thought he had been fouled in an attempt to get to free throw line. The ref disagreed, and he threw away Texas's chance to win.
Also of note: Maryland Terrapins. They went 0-2 in New York, but they weren't expected to win either game. Losing to Pitt by nine and to Illinois by four bodes well for the Terps' chances in ACC play.
MAUI INVITATIONAL
Championship: Connecticut Huskies over Kentucky Wildcats
Biggest positive: Kemba Walker. Coming into this tournament nobody was really sure what to make of UCONN. Sure, they'd be a middle of the road Big East team most likely, but where would that really put them in the overall pecking order? Well, Walker carried them on his back to the title here with games of 31, 30, and 29 points, and made sure everybody knew that he was good enough, and had enough talent around him, to make the Huskies a threat.
Biggest negative: Oklahoma Sooners. Eesh. The Sooners looked decent in their opener, hanging with Kentucky, but completely fell apart from there. First, they lost by 18 to a terrible Virginia squad who just go rolled by Washington by 40+, then they lost to Chaminade, the little host school who had won just five times in the 26 years prior of the tournament's existence. Not only did they go down, but they went down bickering amongst themselves. This is going to be a long year in Norman.
Also of note: Wichita State goes 2-1, but leaves disappointed after blowing their opening round game against UCONN, a game they led by four with just four minutes to go. It would end up being the only resume-building opportunity the Shockers would get, matching up against Virginia and Chaminade in their final two. That could hurt come Selection Sunday.
CBE CLASSIC
Championship: Duke Blue Devils over Kansas State Wildcats
Biggest positive: Duke. I have no idea how anybody is going to beat this team. Marquette tried to go small to match Duke's quickness and whichever Plumlee it was destroyed them inside, then K-State tried to run with them and Duke ran 'em out of the gym. They are good inside (Plumlees), have great guards (Nolan Smith, the unguardable Kyrie Irving), and have dead-eye shooters who you can't leave to go help (Andre Dawkins, Seth Curry). And that's all without bothering to mention the ACC pre-season player of the year in Kyle Singler. Look out, because they have a chance to go undefeated. No, I'm not crazy.
Biggest negative: Duke. The exact paragraph I just wrote is actually more of a negative because I, and everybody with a soul, hates Duke.
Also of note: Gonzaga 66, Marquette 63. Marquette lost both games in Kansas City, first to Duke by five and then this one to the Zags by 3. Though those are both big missed opportunities, they also signal that for the second straight year a down year in Marquette might not be as down as we think.
OLD SPICE CLASSIC
Championship: Notre Dame Fighting Irish over Wisconsin Badgers
Biggest positive: Notre Dame. The Irish picked up two wins over NCAA caliber teams, beating both the Badgers for the title and Georgia in the opening round. It's very likely Temple and Texas A&M were the only other teams to even pick up one in Orlando.
Biggest negative: Temple. As noted, the Owls did pick up a win over Georgia that looks good, but losses to both Cal and Texas A&M are huge negatives. A&M might be a bubble team, so that one will hurt, and Cal is likely to be a bottom of the barrel Pac-10 team while the Pac-10 is likely to be a bottom of the barrel conference. The Owls were supposed to be the class of the A-10, but they sure didn't play like it.
Also of note: Notre Dame 58, Wisconsin 51. The Badgers came into Orlando with a chance to pick up some nice victories, but Boston College's win over Texas A&M took that game off the board, and Wisconsin blew their chance against the Irish. They come without a high profile win to show-off in March.
CHARLESTON CLASSIC
Championship: Georgetown Hoyas over North Carolina State Wolfpack
Biggest positive: Georgetown. This wasn't exactly a murderer's row of teams, but beating Big South favorite Coastal Carolina by 19, SoCon favorite Wofford by 15, and a very good NC State team by 15 is a pretty nice weekend. The Hoyas will be good, and in an odd-twist, guard dominated - their three top scorers are all guards.
Biggest negative: George Mason Patriots. There's been a lot of early season success out of the Colonial Conference so far this year (VCU, Old Dominion), but George Mason whiffed on their chance to join in by losing to Wofford in the third-place game. It's not an awful loss, but when you're a mid-major you need to win every one of these types of games to have a shot at a bid.
Also of note: Wofford 82, George Mason 79. I already mentioned this above as a negative for GMU, but it's a definite positive for the Terriers. They have a brutal early schedule, but unfortunately missed out on a chance for an even bigger win by losing to Xavier in triple-overtime last week. The 2-5 record also includes a loss to lowly Air Force, so an ambitious schedule goes for naught and Wofford will need to win their way in if they want to play in the NCAAs.
PARADISE JAM
Championship: Old Dominion Monarchs over Xavier Musketeers
Biggest positive: ODU. This is what you need to do if you're a mid-major hoping to be in at-large consideration come March. The Monarchs won the Paradise Jam Championship, beating St. Peter's (doesn't matter), Clemson (possible tournament team), and Xavier (very likely tournament team). That is two huge wins, and assuming they don't falter in a strong Colonial ODU is in great shape.
Biggest negative: Alabama Crimson Tide. From NCAA possibilities to the bottom of the league, the Tide embarrassed themselves, losing to Seton Hall (acceptable), Iowa (not acceptable), and St. Peter's (abominable). Remember in Monson's last year or almost last year when the Gophers went to the Old Spice Classic and went 0-3, including a loss to Montana? This is like that.
Also of note: Clemson 64, Seton Hall 58. Two teams that will likely find themselves in similar spots come year's end, this third place game could mean the difference between NCAA and NIT.
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND INVITATIONAL
Championship: BYU Cougars over St. Mary's Gaels
Biggest positive: BYU. It's questionable how much the two wins BYU picked up will really help them because I'm not sure South Florida or St. Mary's are tournament teams, but the way in which the Cougars won could be valuable in March. The win over South Florida went to double OT before BYU hit a game-winner, and then the win over the Gaels was a one point victory on a 3-pointer by the Jimmer with 10 seconds left. That kind of late game experience could pay-off big.
Biggest negative: Texas Tech. The obvious choice as a downer since they were the team that went 0-2, it's sad for Tech because they have an experienced team with postseason aspirations, but getting blown out by St. Mary's and then blowing the lead against USF late says they suck.
Also of note: Liberty 67, Chicago State 65. This tournament has two brackets, a good one and a crappy one, and Liberty won the crappy one. I can't think of a single reason why that's remotely noteworthy.
76 CLASSIC
Championship: UNLV Runnin' Rebels over Virginia Tech Hokies
Biggest positive: UNLV. Wins over both Virginia Tech and Oklahoma State give the Rebels two quality victories. Since the Mountain West is likely to be very solid again with four very good teams, even if they beat up on each other the Rebels are in good position to nab an NCAA bid once again.
Biggest negative: Murray State Racers. Murray State has been tabbed as this year's Butler - not a bad call considering there stellar play in March last year and that they have essentially that whole team back - but they missed out on a big opportunity here. After beating Stanford in round 1 they lost to both UNLV and Oklahoma State in the next two rounds, and neither game was close. With their earlier loss to Ole Miss and nothing really left on the schedule outside of the Ohio Valley conference games their hopes at an at-large disappeared this weekend.
Also of note: Virginia Tech 56, Oklahoma State 51. The Hokies have missed the tournament the past two years due to weak non-conference scheduling and a lack of quality out-of-conference wins. This at least gives them one good victory - more than they had either of the last two years.
CHICAGO INVITATIONAL CHALLENGE
Championship: Richmond Spiders over Purdue Boilermakers
Biggest positive: Richmond. The Spiders were supposed to be at the top of the Atlantic-10 this year and were considered a very likely NCAA Tournament team. An early loss to Iona, however, had experts like me questioning if this was just another in a long line of A-10 "sleepers" who were actually not very good. This win over Purdue helps put some of that unease to rest.
Biggest negative: Purdue. No surprise here, this was set-up as basically a coronation for Purdue, but Richmond spoiled that, and that's not good for the Boilers.
Also of note: Wright State 82, Oakland 79. Oakland (which is in Michigan) is supposed to be a mid-major sleeper due to the presence of seven-footer Keith Benson, but if you can't even beat Wright State...I mean, come on.
LEGENDS CLASSIC
Championship: Syracuse Orange over Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Biggest positive: Georgia Tech. They aren't going to make the NCAA tournament or anything, but the Yellow Jackets needed some positives after losing to lowly Kennesaw State early this year and looking like they might be nothing more than a big joke this season. Blowing out Albany and Niagara in the early rounds, beating UTEP in the semis, and then losing to the Cuse by just four in the final is a step in the right direction.
Biggest negative: Michigan Wolverines. Michigan started the year playing well, beating up on the cupcakes and then even hung tough with Syracuse in the semis, leading for most of the game before losing by just four. Unfortunately, instead of still salvaging something they ended up losing to UTEP in the third place game instead.
Also of note: Detroit Titans. There was a second, consolation regional held in Michigan, and Detroit won it by beating Albany, Bowling Green, and Niagara in consecutive days. Even if it's not exactly a murderer's row of opponents it's still a nice little run and was highlighted by former Indiana Hoosier Eli Holman who put up a double-double in each game. Detroit is a nice little sleeper in the Horizon.
LAS VEGAS INVITATIONAL
Championship: Kansas Jayhawks over Arizona Wildcats
Biggest positive: Kansas. The Jayhawks stomped MAC favorite Ohio, easily handled a very good Arizona team, now rank sixth in the polls and first according to Ken Pomeroy's tempo-free stats (www.kenpom.com). And they've done all this without the services of their top recruit Josh Selby. When he finally starts playing this team is an instant title contender. Of course, some times a high profile freshman disrupts chemistry to a point where the team gets worse, so let's hope for a little Kris Humphries/Stephon Marbury from Selby.
Biggest negative: Nobody, really. Everybody finished where they should, the good teams stomped the bad, and nobody's play stood out as exceptionally poor. If you had to pick one negative, go with Ohio. Last year's upset winner over Georgetown in the first round of the tournament was picked to win their conference again, and losing by 57 to Kansas is certainly not what they had in mind.
Also of note: Solomon Hill. Arizona has one of the best player's in the country in Derrick Williams, but he can't do it himself. If Hill can play like he did against Santa Clara (20 pts) rather than how he did against Kansas (9 pts) more often, Arizona will have a much better chance of getting back to the NCAA Tournament.
GREAT ALASKA SHOOTOUT
Championship: St. Johns Red Storm over Arizona State Sun Devils
Biggest positive: St. Johns, my Big East sleeper pick, started the season questionably enough, losing to St. Mary's, but handled themselves nicely in Alaska by going 3-0. With no other possible NCAA Tournament teams in this field, the Red Storm basically had to win this tournament. And they did.
Biggest negative: Ball State. Not that Ball State is supposed to be anything (it's been a long time since Theron Smith), but it's never good to lose to non-Division I squad, and the Cardinals were dropped by the host Alaska-Anchorage, and in embarrassing fashion, 62-44.
Also of note: Weber State 82, Drake 81. Weber State won't be an at-large NCAA team, but they are considered the favorites to come out of the Big Sky, and taking third place in Alaska is a solid outing for this team. Plus Mrs. W went to Weber State for a year and I visit Ogden almost yearly, so it's always nice to give them a little pub.
And that should pretty well cover it. There were a few others, but really nobody cares who wins the Cancun Challenge or the Philly Hoop Group Classic because the teams involved are irrelevant, and I think I've typed just about enough for one evening. There are a bunch more of these tournaments coming up around Christmas-time, including a couple involving Big Ten representation (Northwestern in the MSG Holiday Festival and Indiana in the Las Vegas Classic) so I might recap them after the holidays. By then I'm pretty sure there will be nothing left to care about as far as the Gophers are concerned. That team is absolute garbage.
PUERTO RICO TIP OFF
Championship: Minnesota Gophers over West Virginia Mountaineers
Biggest positive: Minnesota. I wasn't really sure where they'd fall in the Big Ten pecking order. Somewhere in the middle, likely, but towards the top of that middle or towards the bottom? Well, wins over three potential tournament teams help answer that and push the Gophers towards the top of the conference.
Biggest negative: North Carolina Tar Heels. A year after the worst season for UNC in recent memory, the Tar Heels started this year with a lot of positivity and a lofty #8 ranking the country, but losses to both Minnesota and Vanderbilt show that this team isn't quite there yet. A loss to one or the other could be shrugged off, since both are possible NCAA Tournament teams, but losses to both sends up a bit of a red flag.
Also of note: Davidson 64, Western Kentucky 51. This game, as well as WKU's narrow 2-point win over Hofstra, say that the Hilltoppers aren't going to be making the NCAA Tournament as at at-large.
NIT SEASON TIP OFF
Championship: Tennessee Volunteers over Villanova Wildcats
Biggest positive: Tennessee. All their losses from last season had me convinced they were badly overrated and would be in the NIT at best this year, and then all the Bruce Pearl nonsense solidified that thought for me. Turns out their better than I gave them credit for, and the combination of super freshman Tobias Harris on the inside and dynamic scorers Cameron Tatum and Scotty Hopson on the wings is looking like enough to drive the Vols to success.
Biggest negative: Wake Forest Demon Deacons. "Wait, I didn't see them in New York" is what you might be saying, and you're right, but that's because they got bounced out of the qualifying round - the "gimme" round held on their home floor. Of course they also drew Virginia Commonwealth who was probably the favorite to come out of that region, but it just confirms that this is going to be a dark, dark year in Winston-Salem. If this loss to VCU (by 21, if I didn't mention it) doesn't cement it, the earlier loss to Stetson and subsequent loss to Winthrop (both also at home) are pretty big clues. But the biggest clue? Iowa was favored over them in their ACC/Big Ten Challenge matchup tonight, and the game was at Wake.
Also of note: VCU 89, UCLA 85. Not content with just getting to New York, VCU then went ahead and beat UCLA to nab a third-place finish. That's going to go a long way in getting the Colonial multiple bids this year.
COACHES VS CANCER CLASSIC
Championship: Pitt Panthers over Texas Longhorns
Biggest positive: Texas. Last year the Longhorns had all the talent in the world, were ranked #1 at one point, and then death spiraled down and didn't even receive an NCAA bid. This year saw a lot of turnover, and I'm not sure anybody really knew what to expect, as usual with a Rick Barnes team. Beating Illinois and then hanging right with Pitt before losing by two shows they have some talent, it's just a matter of if they put it all together.
Biggest negative: Cory Joseph. In the two games in New York, Joseph shot just 3-13, including 0-4 from three, with 5 assists and 3 turnovers, and threw up a ridiculous shot at the end of the final with the Longhorns down two when he thought he had been fouled in an attempt to get to free throw line. The ref disagreed, and he threw away Texas's chance to win.
Also of note: Maryland Terrapins. They went 0-2 in New York, but they weren't expected to win either game. Losing to Pitt by nine and to Illinois by four bodes well for the Terps' chances in ACC play.
MAUI INVITATIONAL
Championship: Connecticut Huskies over Kentucky Wildcats
Biggest positive: Kemba Walker. Coming into this tournament nobody was really sure what to make of UCONN. Sure, they'd be a middle of the road Big East team most likely, but where would that really put them in the overall pecking order? Well, Walker carried them on his back to the title here with games of 31, 30, and 29 points, and made sure everybody knew that he was good enough, and had enough talent around him, to make the Huskies a threat.
Biggest negative: Oklahoma Sooners. Eesh. The Sooners looked decent in their opener, hanging with Kentucky, but completely fell apart from there. First, they lost by 18 to a terrible Virginia squad who just go rolled by Washington by 40+, then they lost to Chaminade, the little host school who had won just five times in the 26 years prior of the tournament's existence. Not only did they go down, but they went down bickering amongst themselves. This is going to be a long year in Norman.
Also of note: Wichita State goes 2-1, but leaves disappointed after blowing their opening round game against UCONN, a game they led by four with just four minutes to go. It would end up being the only resume-building opportunity the Shockers would get, matching up against Virginia and Chaminade in their final two. That could hurt come Selection Sunday.
CBE CLASSIC
Championship: Duke Blue Devils over Kansas State Wildcats
Biggest positive: Duke. I have no idea how anybody is going to beat this team. Marquette tried to go small to match Duke's quickness and whichever Plumlee it was destroyed them inside, then K-State tried to run with them and Duke ran 'em out of the gym. They are good inside (Plumlees), have great guards (Nolan Smith, the unguardable Kyrie Irving), and have dead-eye shooters who you can't leave to go help (Andre Dawkins, Seth Curry). And that's all without bothering to mention the ACC pre-season player of the year in Kyle Singler. Look out, because they have a chance to go undefeated. No, I'm not crazy.
Biggest negative: Duke. The exact paragraph I just wrote is actually more of a negative because I, and everybody with a soul, hates Duke.
Also of note: Gonzaga 66, Marquette 63. Marquette lost both games in Kansas City, first to Duke by five and then this one to the Zags by 3. Though those are both big missed opportunities, they also signal that for the second straight year a down year in Marquette might not be as down as we think.
OLD SPICE CLASSIC
Championship: Notre Dame Fighting Irish over Wisconsin Badgers
Biggest positive: Notre Dame. The Irish picked up two wins over NCAA caliber teams, beating both the Badgers for the title and Georgia in the opening round. It's very likely Temple and Texas A&M were the only other teams to even pick up one in Orlando.
Biggest negative: Temple. As noted, the Owls did pick up a win over Georgia that looks good, but losses to both Cal and Texas A&M are huge negatives. A&M might be a bubble team, so that one will hurt, and Cal is likely to be a bottom of the barrel Pac-10 team while the Pac-10 is likely to be a bottom of the barrel conference. The Owls were supposed to be the class of the A-10, but they sure didn't play like it.
Also of note: Notre Dame 58, Wisconsin 51. The Badgers came into Orlando with a chance to pick up some nice victories, but Boston College's win over Texas A&M took that game off the board, and Wisconsin blew their chance against the Irish. They come without a high profile win to show-off in March.
CHARLESTON CLASSIC
Championship: Georgetown Hoyas over North Carolina State Wolfpack
Biggest positive: Georgetown. This wasn't exactly a murderer's row of teams, but beating Big South favorite Coastal Carolina by 19, SoCon favorite Wofford by 15, and a very good NC State team by 15 is a pretty nice weekend. The Hoyas will be good, and in an odd-twist, guard dominated - their three top scorers are all guards.
Biggest negative: George Mason Patriots. There's been a lot of early season success out of the Colonial Conference so far this year (VCU, Old Dominion), but George Mason whiffed on their chance to join in by losing to Wofford in the third-place game. It's not an awful loss, but when you're a mid-major you need to win every one of these types of games to have a shot at a bid.
Also of note: Wofford 82, George Mason 79. I already mentioned this above as a negative for GMU, but it's a definite positive for the Terriers. They have a brutal early schedule, but unfortunately missed out on a chance for an even bigger win by losing to Xavier in triple-overtime last week. The 2-5 record also includes a loss to lowly Air Force, so an ambitious schedule goes for naught and Wofford will need to win their way in if they want to play in the NCAAs.
PARADISE JAM
Championship: Old Dominion Monarchs over Xavier Musketeers
Biggest positive: ODU. This is what you need to do if you're a mid-major hoping to be in at-large consideration come March. The Monarchs won the Paradise Jam Championship, beating St. Peter's (doesn't matter), Clemson (possible tournament team), and Xavier (very likely tournament team). That is two huge wins, and assuming they don't falter in a strong Colonial ODU is in great shape.
Biggest negative: Alabama Crimson Tide. From NCAA possibilities to the bottom of the league, the Tide embarrassed themselves, losing to Seton Hall (acceptable), Iowa (not acceptable), and St. Peter's (abominable). Remember in Monson's last year or almost last year when the Gophers went to the Old Spice Classic and went 0-3, including a loss to Montana? This is like that.
Also of note: Clemson 64, Seton Hall 58. Two teams that will likely find themselves in similar spots come year's end, this third place game could mean the difference between NCAA and NIT.
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND INVITATIONAL
Championship: BYU Cougars over St. Mary's Gaels
Biggest positive: BYU. It's questionable how much the two wins BYU picked up will really help them because I'm not sure South Florida or St. Mary's are tournament teams, but the way in which the Cougars won could be valuable in March. The win over South Florida went to double OT before BYU hit a game-winner, and then the win over the Gaels was a one point victory on a 3-pointer by the Jimmer with 10 seconds left. That kind of late game experience could pay-off big.
Biggest negative: Texas Tech. The obvious choice as a downer since they were the team that went 0-2, it's sad for Tech because they have an experienced team with postseason aspirations, but getting blown out by St. Mary's and then blowing the lead against USF late says they suck.
Also of note: Liberty 67, Chicago State 65. This tournament has two brackets, a good one and a crappy one, and Liberty won the crappy one. I can't think of a single reason why that's remotely noteworthy.
76 CLASSIC
Championship: UNLV Runnin' Rebels over Virginia Tech Hokies
Biggest positive: UNLV. Wins over both Virginia Tech and Oklahoma State give the Rebels two quality victories. Since the Mountain West is likely to be very solid again with four very good teams, even if they beat up on each other the Rebels are in good position to nab an NCAA bid once again.
Biggest negative: Murray State Racers. Murray State has been tabbed as this year's Butler - not a bad call considering there stellar play in March last year and that they have essentially that whole team back - but they missed out on a big opportunity here. After beating Stanford in round 1 they lost to both UNLV and Oklahoma State in the next two rounds, and neither game was close. With their earlier loss to Ole Miss and nothing really left on the schedule outside of the Ohio Valley conference games their hopes at an at-large disappeared this weekend.
Also of note: Virginia Tech 56, Oklahoma State 51. The Hokies have missed the tournament the past two years due to weak non-conference scheduling and a lack of quality out-of-conference wins. This at least gives them one good victory - more than they had either of the last two years.
CHICAGO INVITATIONAL CHALLENGE
Championship: Richmond Spiders over Purdue Boilermakers
Biggest positive: Richmond. The Spiders were supposed to be at the top of the Atlantic-10 this year and were considered a very likely NCAA Tournament team. An early loss to Iona, however, had experts like me questioning if this was just another in a long line of A-10 "sleepers" who were actually not very good. This win over Purdue helps put some of that unease to rest.
Biggest negative: Purdue. No surprise here, this was set-up as basically a coronation for Purdue, but Richmond spoiled that, and that's not good for the Boilers.
Also of note: Wright State 82, Oakland 79. Oakland (which is in Michigan) is supposed to be a mid-major sleeper due to the presence of seven-footer Keith Benson, but if you can't even beat Wright State...I mean, come on.
LEGENDS CLASSIC
Championship: Syracuse Orange over Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Biggest positive: Georgia Tech. They aren't going to make the NCAA tournament or anything, but the Yellow Jackets needed some positives after losing to lowly Kennesaw State early this year and looking like they might be nothing more than a big joke this season. Blowing out Albany and Niagara in the early rounds, beating UTEP in the semis, and then losing to the Cuse by just four in the final is a step in the right direction.
Biggest negative: Michigan Wolverines. Michigan started the year playing well, beating up on the cupcakes and then even hung tough with Syracuse in the semis, leading for most of the game before losing by just four. Unfortunately, instead of still salvaging something they ended up losing to UTEP in the third place game instead.
Also of note: Detroit Titans. There was a second, consolation regional held in Michigan, and Detroit won it by beating Albany, Bowling Green, and Niagara in consecutive days. Even if it's not exactly a murderer's row of opponents it's still a nice little run and was highlighted by former Indiana Hoosier Eli Holman who put up a double-double in each game. Detroit is a nice little sleeper in the Horizon.
LAS VEGAS INVITATIONAL
Championship: Kansas Jayhawks over Arizona Wildcats
Biggest positive: Kansas. The Jayhawks stomped MAC favorite Ohio, easily handled a very good Arizona team, now rank sixth in the polls and first according to Ken Pomeroy's tempo-free stats (www.kenpom.com). And they've done all this without the services of their top recruit Josh Selby. When he finally starts playing this team is an instant title contender. Of course, some times a high profile freshman disrupts chemistry to a point where the team gets worse, so let's hope for a little Kris Humphries/Stephon Marbury from Selby.
Biggest negative: Nobody, really. Everybody finished where they should, the good teams stomped the bad, and nobody's play stood out as exceptionally poor. If you had to pick one negative, go with Ohio. Last year's upset winner over Georgetown in the first round of the tournament was picked to win their conference again, and losing by 57 to Kansas is certainly not what they had in mind.
Also of note: Solomon Hill. Arizona has one of the best player's in the country in Derrick Williams, but he can't do it himself. If Hill can play like he did against Santa Clara (20 pts) rather than how he did against Kansas (9 pts) more often, Arizona will have a much better chance of getting back to the NCAA Tournament.
GREAT ALASKA SHOOTOUT
Championship: St. Johns Red Storm over Arizona State Sun Devils
Biggest positive: St. Johns, my Big East sleeper pick, started the season questionably enough, losing to St. Mary's, but handled themselves nicely in Alaska by going 3-0. With no other possible NCAA Tournament teams in this field, the Red Storm basically had to win this tournament. And they did.
Biggest negative: Ball State. Not that Ball State is supposed to be anything (it's been a long time since Theron Smith), but it's never good to lose to non-Division I squad, and the Cardinals were dropped by the host Alaska-Anchorage, and in embarrassing fashion, 62-44.
Also of note: Weber State 82, Drake 81. Weber State won't be an at-large NCAA team, but they are considered the favorites to come out of the Big Sky, and taking third place in Alaska is a solid outing for this team. Plus Mrs. W went to Weber State for a year and I visit Ogden almost yearly, so it's always nice to give them a little pub.
And that should pretty well cover it. There were a few others, but really nobody cares who wins the Cancun Challenge or the Philly Hoop Group Classic because the teams involved are irrelevant, and I think I've typed just about enough for one evening. There are a bunch more of these tournaments coming up around Christmas-time, including a couple involving Big Ten representation (Northwestern in the MSG Holiday Festival and Indiana in the Las Vegas Classic) so I might recap them after the holidays. By then I'm pretty sure there will be nothing left to care about as far as the Gophers are concerned. That team is absolute garbage.
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