NCAA Basketball Preview - The Atlantic 10

Here's what you're going to want to do - watch "New Girl" from Fox.  It debuted on Tuesday night and I think me and the missus laughed more than we've ever laughed at the first episode of anything, and that includes Parks and Rec.  It stars one of my big crushes, Zooey Deschanel, and although she's always been quirky funny she really, truly can carry a show as the funny lead and she knocks it out of the park here.  Then there's three dumb guys who she moves in with who I've never heard of but actually do an adequate job.

So watch it.  It's on every Tuesday at 8pm, and they're replaying the pilot on Saturday October 1st so do it.  If you've ever trusted my judgement about anything, watch this show.  But also know that I have dibs on Zooey.  I've been into her since her Almost Famous and The Good Girl, so back off.  I have dibs on her sister too.

I have a lot of dibs.  Anyways, here comes the A-10!!!!!

1.  XAVIER MUSKETEERS.  Tu Holloway (who sounded cooler when he was going by Terrell) is back after nearly jumping to the NBA so that pretty much automatically makes Xavier the favorite because he's so retardedly good, but he's got plenty of help.  Mark Lyons joins him in the backcourt and nearly doubled his scoring average last year all the way up to 13.6, and Kenny Frease is back to man the middle.  All of which means X has their top three scorers back.   They're also adding three top 140 recruits including Dezmine Wells, a SF who ranked #76 on Rivals list and is all but guaranteed to be the next Musketeer superstar.  They also imported Travis Taylor who is not a crappy receiver from Florida but is in fact a power forward who transferred from Monmouth where he lit it up for nearly 18 points per game.  I'm comfortable at this point saying Xavier doesn't rebuild, they just reload.

2.  TEMPLE OWLS.  If the back court is what really makes good teams good then Temple is off to a good start despite losing power forward Lavoy Allen who averaged 12 and 9 last year.  Back is SG Ramone Moore, last year's leading scorer at over 15 per game, as well as Juan Fernandez.  You remember Fernandez as the hipster pot head looking guy who killed Talor Battle with his off-balance miracle shot in the NCAA Tournament.  He's super annoying to look at, really irritating to watch, and really his numbers aren't even that great and he can't really shoot, but somehow he has that annoying knack for making the plays when they're needed. 

3.  ST LOUIS BILLIKENS.  I suppose it didn't make sense to think Rick Majerus would turn St. Louis around super fastly but I did because I love that fat-ass.  But after a good year two seasons ago (11-5 A-10) they regressed hard last year, finishing at 6-10 last year, not in small part because their two best players - Willie Reed and Kwamain Mitchell - missed all of last season because of sexual assault charges.  Both were cleared - Reed bolted for the NBA (undrafted, nice job genius), but getting Mitchell back is huge for a Billiken team that returns all five starters and their 8 top scorers from last season.  If this isn't the year St. Louis makes the NCAA Tournament it's probably time to just end the program all together.  Maybe all the other A-10 coaches could have fun little luau where they roast Majerus for food and invite A.C. Slater and it would be fun for all.  Except Majerus.

4.  GEORGE WASHINGTON COLONIALS.  GW went an impressive 10-6 in the A-10 last season.  Unfortunately that didn't remotely get them in the conversation for an NCAA bid because they didn't even come close to playing anybody in the non-conference slate and didn't beat any of the league's good teams during conference play.  Still it's a good jumping off point for this season, and with only one starter gone from last year's team and getting back Lasan Kromah, who was second on the team in scoring two years ago as a freshman before missing last year with a foot injury, GW might be in contention to reach the NCAA Tournament.  Tony Taylor is a player of the year candidate, and with a tougher schedule that includes games against Cal, Syracuse, and VCU, they have a shot.

5.  CHARLOTTE 49ERS.  The 49ers return four starters from last year's squad, but I'm not sure that's a good thing.  Last year they couldn't shoot, turned the ball over like crazy, never registered assists, and couldn't play defense.  All that led to a 10-20 record with just 2 conference wins.  There is, however, reason to have some hope because three of those 10 wins came over Xavier, Tennessee, and Georgia Tech, so when things do come together for Charlotte they can play well, it just didn't happen with any regularity last year.  Of those returners, three scored in double figures last year, including their top two assist and steal guys.  If they can shoot a little better, take care of the ball a little better, and play better defense they could be dangerous.  Yes, that's a lot of ifs and I don't know why I believe they'll be better.  Maybe I just like green uniforms.

6.  ST JOE'S HAWKS.   I've seen St. Joe's referenced as a potential A-10 sleeper, but I'm not sure I really see it.  Yes, they only lost one starter and not a very good one at that, but this is also a team that was beaten by the Gophers at home last year so how good can they be?  Still, they have a couple of good guards including Carl Jones who is the third leading returning scorer in the conference with 17 per game, along with sophomore center C.J. Aiken who was ranked the #8 incoming freshman center in the country last season.  Although Aiken is a bit of a project on offense he's already a killer on defense and averaged 3.5 blocks per game last season which led the conference and was second nationally.  So I guess they do have some talent.  But still, the Gophers.

7.  DAYTON FLYERS.  I've spent plenty of time in other A-10 previews talking about how Dayton has terrible fans so I won't rehash that here, especially since this year is going to be a toughie for the Flyers.  Not only did they lose their coach, but they also lost leading scorer Chris Wright to graduation and freshman point guard Juwan Staten, who led the A-10 in assists, decided to transfer after realizing how much Dayton sucked.  They still have Chris Johnson, a guy I really like who is an all-around kind of guy and superior athlete, and PG Kevin Dillard, a transfer from So Ill, led the MVC in assists his sophomore year so he's not a monster step down from Staten, but the talent level has definitely waned in Dayton.  Gregory got out at the right time.

8.  ST BONAVENTURE BONNIES.  What St. Bonnie's has going for them is maybe the best player in the conference in Andrew Nicholson.  What they don't have going for them is everything else.  Nicholson is now a senior, and has gone from a 2-star center from Canada whose only D-I Scholarship offer came from St. Bonnie's to a guy who led the conference in scoring at 22 per game last year.  All he needs is a little help and there's a couple of other returners who averaged in double-figures, but let's be honest St. Bonnie's has never been on tv so who am I kidding trying to write about them?

9.  UMASS MINUTEMEN.  They lose their best player and top scorer in Anthony Gurley, but return everybody else.  The problem is that nobody besides Gurley averaged more than 8.5 points per game, so what you're left with is nine different players who averaged between 4.3 and 8.5 points per game last year, and I have no idea how that's going to shake itself out.  If multiple players step up their game and become double digit scorers and all-conference types they could finish significantly higher than this.  On the other hand, if nobody takes a leap and improves from last season they could be bottom dwellers.  Obviously, I think neither of those things will happen and they'll just float here at #9.  Go me!

10.  DUQUESNE DUKES.  The Dukes chance to shine was last year, but they came up a bit short.  After starting the conference season 8-0, Duquesne limped to the finish at 2-6 and then were dropped in the first round of the A-10 tourney by crappy St. Joe's and ended up in the CBI since their non-conference resume was basically non-existent.  Now both Damian Saunders and Bill Clark, two of the best players in Duquesne history, are gone and although there's still some talent here they certainly aren't in the same class they were in (or could have been in) last year.  They return three pretty good guards, including A-10 rookie of the year T.J. McConnell, and since they play an extreme uptempo style that's a good start and they should end up ok, but they definitely whiffed on a big opportunity last season. 

11.  RICHMOND SPIDERS.  After reaching the sweet 16 last year and setting a school record for victories, the Spiders have been massacred by graduations, losing four starters who accounted for nearly 70% of the team's scoring last year and over half of their rebounds and assists, including Kevin Anderson and Justin Harper who were both All A-10 first team selections last year.  So yeah, they have a lot of uncertainty going on.  Richmond has begun to establish itself as one of the elite basketball schools in the conference, but it's going to take some big years from unexpected places to keep them there.

12.  FORDHAM RAMS.  The sad thing about Fordham, other than the fact that their win totals have been three, two, and seven the past three years (and those are total wins, not conference wins), is that they actually have one of the best players in the conference in power forward Chris Gaston, who was the only A-10 player to average a double-double at 15.9 points and 11.3 rebounds (4th in the nation).  The problem is he has zero help, so defenses really do nothing other than throw double and triple teams at him and it works because they are terrible at everything, and there's really no reason to think they're going to be much better.  They lose their second leading scorer, but return two other double digit scorers in Branden Frazier (from Dudley Do-Right) and Alberto Estwick.  If either of those guys can take some pressure of Gaston, maybe they could get to a CIT bid.  Aim high.

13.  RHODE ISLAND RAMS.  Remember Jimmy Baron?  The coaches son who played for the Rams a couple of years ago and rained down 8 three-pointers in Cameron and almost single-handedly beat Duke?  He's been gone now for a couple of years, but little brother Billy just transferred in from Virginia and he profiles as a similar player.  Which is good, because most of the excitement left Rhodey after last year with three of their top four scorers, including second team A-10 selection Delroy James.  Joining Baron will be a couple returnees who are also excellent outside shooters and any time a team has a couple of outside threats they can also manage an upset or two, but that's about all the Rams will be good for this year.  

14.  LASALLE EXPLORERS.  When Aaric Murray,  who was ranked as the #35 overall recruit and #5 center in the country coming into school in 2009, it was a huge, huge deal.  Here was a hometown kid from just outside Philly who was going to return the Explorers to the glory days of Lionel Simmons.  Well.  Insert fart sound.  LaSalle went 4-12 and 6-10 in A-10 games the last two years, and although Murray put up good numbers he was also benched for poor effort last season and has now transferred to West Virgina with nary a post-season berth on the record.  With two other double-digit scorers lost to graduation LaSalle finds itself in a position similar to the Minnesota Twins - no hope and no prospects, and one of the worst teams in the country.

Other Previews:
Big 12
ACC

Week in Review - 02.21.2011

Well, we're in crunch time now, eh?  All that cushion, all that certainty, all that "should be in" stuff that the Gophers built up with those good wins over UNC and West Virginia is now gone and we are into do or die time.  It shouldn't be too much of an issue, because the next four aren't exactly going against world beaters:  Michigan State and Michigan at home, at Northwestern, and then back home against Penn State.  Win three - and they should win three - and they'll be 9-9, which, when combined with their non-conference wins and computer numbers would probably get them in.  Win all four, which is possible, and they're guaranteed in.  But win just 2, and you'll need a nice run in the B10 tournament.  Any less than that, and then turn out the lights - but not at Williams, because we'll be seeing a home game or two for the prestigious NIT.  Really, it's in the teams' hands and in their control.  Win the games you're supposed to win and you're in.  That's it.  Simple, really.  Practically guaranteed.  The Gophers would never let me down.

WHO WAS AWESOME

1.  Purdue Boilermakers.  I think beating the two best teams in your conference qualifies as having a pretty awesome week, and they certainly made their case that they, not Wisconsin, should be considered the second best team in the Big Ten.  Really, though, it doesn't get much more impressive than beating two top 10 ranked teams and conference foes at that, even if they were at home.  E'Twaun Moore had some big-time struggles in mid-season but he's hit his stride big time, hitting for at least 19 in his last four games, capping it off with a career high 38 against Ohio State on Sunday, a game in which he hit 13 of 18 shots and basically dominated the #1 team in the country or whatever they were ranked.  This is a whole different team when he's on (JaJuan Johnson is always on) and they pretty emphatically answered the question, "Who has Purdue really beaten?"  Big Ten actually looking pretty good for possibly three Sweet 16 teams.  But probably zero.

2.  Jake Pullen.  There's little doubt who picked up the biggest win of the week, even if it was way back on Monday night and already feels like it happened a long time ago.  K-State was basically drifting aimlessly, having taken their preseason top 10 (top 5?) ranking and basically pissed it away thanks to complacency and a crazy amount of turnovers, but there's never been any doubt they were talented.  Thanks to Pullen, who scored 38 in that big win over Kansas and followed up with 27 more in a blowout win over Oklahoma, they may be making a late push towards an NCAA bid.  ESPN's bracketology had them as a 10 seed after they beat the Jayhawks, with some late success - like a home win over Mizzou - they could end up a 6 or so seed.  Talk about a dangerous 6 seed, wow.

3.  The Colonial Athletic Conference.  There were four big winners in Bracket Busters:  George Mason, Virginia Commonwealth, Old Dominion, and Utah State.  All four of those teams picked up a quality win, which means each of them moved that much closer to grabbed an at-large bid.  Notice anything three of those teams have in common?  Yep, GMU, VCU, and ODU are all members of the CAA, and they TCB ASAP FYI, and can probably now RSVP for NCAA MM, although if either of them go FUBAR and lose to an inferior opponent they'll probably drop to the wrong side of the bubble, but right now it's actually looking fairly likely that the CAA will end up with three bids.  That's awesome. 

4. Cincinnati Bearcats.  You know how it seems like the Big Ten teams who are right on the edge of getting a bid seem to just play like garbage (Illinois, Minnesota, Northwestern)?  Teams from the Big East apparently don't subscribe to that style of perpetual disappointment, and Cincy is the latest team from that conference to go from outside the bubble to inside with a very nice week.  First they beat Louisville at home, and in convincing fashion, and then they followed it up by winning a very tough trap game @ Providence, going into overtime before blowing the Friars out by 12.  That moves them to 8-6 now in conference play, and that's big because their last four games are all very tough (@G-Town, UCONN, @ Marquette, G-Town).  This sets them up where they only need to win one of the four to get in.  Still not easy by any means, but if they can't win at least one of those four they don't really deserve it anyway.

5.  NBA All-Star Game.  I'm just kidding, I'm not retarded enough to watch that crap.  

5.  Tu Holloway.  Even though it's pretty retarded to change your name from Terrell to Tu I love this guy anyway. He notched a triple-double on Saturday in a surprisingly competitive game against Fordham, tallying 26 points, 11 rebounds, and 10 assists.  And he did it with zero turnovers and 8-11 shooting from the floor.  That's ridiculous.  That has to be one of the most efficient games of all-time.  I assume there is someway to look that up, but I'm drunk and tired and I'm not going to do it.  Somebody do it for me.  That's what the comments are for.  Let's assume our lists is 1.  That Bill Walton game, 2.  That christian laettner game, and 3.  Holloway's triple-double.  What else?


WHO SUCKED


1.  St. Mary's Gaels.  If there was an award for most effective killing of your at-large chances in a single week, St. Mary's would stand an awful good chance at winning that award this year, and possibly even for the entire decade.  They started the week in "almost certainly in" status, lost to a terrible, terrible, terrible San Diego team which knocked them to "probably out" status, and then blew there big chance to jump back in, losing at home to Utah State.  With Gonzaga so down this year it's difficult for the Gaels to get quality wins and as of right now their early season win over St. John's is the only real impressive win on their resume.  If they can close with home wins over Gonzaga and Portland, two of the better teams in the league, they would end up at 14-2 in WCC play.  I would guess if they can then at least get to the final in the conference tournament that would probably get them in, but man, did they ever plummet down the S-curve.


2.  Virginia Tech Hokies.  Oopsies.  Honestly, as frustrating as it is to be a Gopher fan - and it's damn frustrating let me tell you what - being a Hokie fan would be a nightmare.  Two straight years of being just barely on the wrong side of the bubble due to softer than Ralph Sampson non-conference scheduling, followed this year by a much better schedule which resulted in losing nearly every meaningful non-conf game and now probably losing one too many conference games they really couldn't afford to lose after dropping a game to Virginia on Saturday.  That gives the Hokies five conference losses:  Virginia, Georgia Tech, BC, UNC, and Virginia - yes, they were swept by Virginia.  Take those two losses plus the GT loss and they're going to need to basically be perfect from here on.  Hopefully not though because their coach is a douche. 


3.  Missouri Valley Conference.  If the MVC wasn't already a one-bid league, it certainly is now as Bracket Busters was not kind to teams from the Valley.  Or, more accurately, teams from the Valley just plain sucked.  Northern Iowa, who needed a win to have a shot at a bid, lost to George Mason (at home).  Wichita State, who needed a win to have a shot at a bid, lost to VCU (at home).  Missouri State, who needed a win to have a shot at a bid, lost to Valpo.  Actually, nine MVC teams played in Bracket Busters this weekend and they managed just three total wins, none of which came from teams with post-season aspirations outside of a possible NIT berth.  Just a terrible showing overall.  This feels more like something the Twins would do.  Somehow.   

4.  Duquesne Dukes.  Oh Duquesne you're breaking my heart.  A surprisingly hot start in Atlantic 10 play had the Dukes at 8-0 and atop conference play, but even more exciting they were looking like a fringe bubble candidate for an at-large bid.  It would be their first appearance since 1977 and behind a potent offense and a stingy defense they looked legit.  Of course, they did nothing in non-conference play so their margin of error was small, and it's now non-existent after they lost to American's most hated team, the Dayton Flyers, a game they led by six late before letting the evil Flyers go on a 10-0 run.  That's now the Dukes third loss in four games with Xavier being the only loss that didn't hurt.  Now Duquesne will need to win the A-10 tournament to make a bid.  I'm sure that will happen.

5.  Baylor Bears.  Well that ought to do it.  Although you could definitely argue that Michigan State or Kansas State are the most disappointing teams this season they are both still alive for an NCAA Tournament berth.  The same can't be said for Baylor anymore, who completely what can only be described as a four-month long dump on their own shoes by losing by 9 to Texas Tech.  AT HOME.  That's Texas Tech, record 12-15, Big 12 record 4-8, and RPI 139.  That's unforgivable.  Although that actually might not even be Baylor's worst loss this year, because they also dropped games to Oklahoma (12-13 (4-8), #132) and Iowa State (14-13 (1-11), #147.  Any one of those losses would be enough to cast a pretty big shadow on their chances in March.  Combine the three, and they're cooked.  Looks like I was right that their 30-1 number to win the championship was way off.  Just turns out I was wrong in the wrong direction.


I didn't have room for him here because too many teams shit the bed this week, but I also want to point out that Durrell Summers shot all of 1-8 this entire week (two games), mainly because in their game against Ohio State he was so bad he only played 16 minutes and in the game against Illinois he shot 1-7.  He should probably just quit and transfer.  I hear Ames is quite nice.

Want to know what else sucks?  When you think you put down on Aaron Baddeley to win the Northern Trust Open at 66-1, and you think you meant to because you specifically checked each book you have an account at to find the best odds. And then you watch the tournament all week and see he's in contention, and then when he's up 2 with just 2 holes to go and you pretty much have the win in the bag you go to check on what the exact amount you're about to win is and it turns out someway, somehow that bet isn't there and you can't blame anybody but yourself because you know damn well you were drinking Wednesday night and probably completely spaced on hitting "confirm" that final time.

FML.

Week in Review 1.31.2011

 Can somebody please explain to me what is going in college basketball this year?  Michigan State, a final four team last year that lost nothing more than Raymar Morgan and replaced him with more talent, is in danger of missing the NCAA Tournament and lost to Michigan for the first time in 23 years, and at home.  Which was Michigan's first road win all year.   Syracuse, who started the season at 18-0, has now lost four straight, which included losses to two other top 10 teams in Pitt and Villanova.  Teams who both lost this week - Villanova twice.  Duke, who looked nearly unstoppable most of the year, lost to St. Johns, the same team that lost to both St. Bonaventure and Fordham.  BYU gave San Diego State it's first loss on the year, and then turned around and got beat by New Mexico, Texas A&M lost to lowly Nebraska, and UCONN completely blew a home game they had in hand against Louisville.  Two of the top five, 3 of the top 10, and 5 of the top 15 teams in the preseason poll aren't even ranked right now.  It's insane.  I know it's great for a fun season and an even better NCAA Tournament, but it's been hell on my bank account so let's just knock this crap off.


WHO WAS AWESOME

1.  St. Johns Red Storm.   If ever a team could have used a win like this it's St. Johns, and beating Duke by 15 is an awfully nice chip to have in your pocket when March rolls around.  They're in good shape RPI-wise thanks to a very tough strength of schedule, and a 4-5 Big East is probably ok, but this game gives them a huge marquee win and stops a three-game skid, not to mention the shot of confidence they probably get considering they just completely blew the doors off the Blue Devils.  The schedule gets easier going forward here, so you can expect to see the Red Storm with a bid for the NCAA Tournament.  Which is what I called, way back in October.  Seriously, sometimes it's hard being so smart.

2.  Penn State Nittany Lions. You gotta admit, they're doing what they can.  It's an uphill climb considering they're just 12-8 and missed every chance to get a quality non-conference win, but they're now 5-4 in a good Big Ten, the RPI is moving up (now #45), the strength of schedule is good (#6), the win over Duquesne is looking better and better, and, even if Michigan State is free-falling, the wins over Illinois and Wisconsin will hold up nicely.  Talor Battle is getting help from PSU's trio of senior forwards - David Jackson, Andrew Jones, and especially Jeff Brooks - and that makes this team very dangerous.  Their home court advantage has been quite strong this year, if they can steal a game or two on the road they'll be in the big dance.

3.  Duquesne Dukes.  At the beginning of the year, the Atlantic 10 was supposed to be very strong at the top with Xavier, Temple, Dayton, and Richmond, and the rest of the schools kind of blah.  Three of the four have been good, but Dayton has sucked (which they deserve) and Duquesne has not only snuck into their spot, but might be the best team in the conference.  They beat Temple earlier this year, and after shellacking Dayton on Saturday are now 7-0 in conference play and tied with Xavier at the top.  The schedule is favorable, with Xavier still to come at home and both Dayton and Richmond on the road, but everything else is against pretty bad squads.  I don't know if they can get an at-large - the RPI sits at #89 despite the gaudy record, but it would be a shame if they fall short because this is a really fun team to watch.  Or at least it was fun watching them destroy the most hated team in the country.  I'm referring to Dayton and it's dirty hippie fans.

4.  Darius Morris.  I said he's the best point guard in the country and he really helps bolster my argument when he does things like he did against Iowa on Sunday:  12 pts, 11 assists, 10 rebounds for just the third triple-double in Michigan history (Manny Harris, Gary Grant).  Considering Kalin Lucas and Talor Battle are not point guards, and I have no idea what McCamey is but he sure as hell isn't a PG (more later), that leaves Morris up against Jordan Taylor, Michael Thompson, Al Nolen, Bryce Cartwright, Aaron Craft, Lewis Jackson, and Jordan Hulls.  Not a bad group, and Craft might end up the best of the bunch eventually, but I'd take Morris for sure over every other one of those guys except maybe Jordan Taylor.  That one would be close, but if you need a pure distributor Morris is your man.  If you need more scoring go with Taylor.  Or roofies.

5.  Georgetown Hoyas.  I'm not sure if there's a tougher team to figure out than the Hoyas.  They're clearly good, but are they GOOD or just good?  They have three awesome guards and a suspect interior, so are they are March sleeper because of their guard play or a March quick out because of a weak interior?  I don't know either, but they are looking like they might be hitting their stride, so if you want to jump on the wagon I'd do it now.  Their win over St. Johns was expected, but doing it by 25 was not, and then going to Villanova and knocking off the #7 Wildcats wasn't.  Austin Freeman is a stone cold pimp (scored 10 of G-Town's last 12 against Nova, and assisted on the other 2), Jason Clark is a dead-eye from deep, and Chris Wright just makes it all happen.  If they get anything from their post guys they're a final four team.  Although they could also go out in the first round.  Just like every other god damn team in this crazy stupid year.



WHO SUCKED

1.  Syracuse Orange.  First their defense was exploited on the road at Pitt, then Villanova shot the lights out to beat them in Syracuse, then they were shredded by Seton Hall - in Syracuse - and followed that up by dropping yet another game to Marquette.  So that makes four straight losses piggybacking their 18-0 start.  Three of the four losses are explainable, even if the home loss to Nova is unfortunate, but that loss at home to Seton Hall is troubling and rather inexplicable - especially since they lost by 22.  The Hall had only two prior conference wins, over bottom feeders DePaul and South Florida, but they roll into the Carrier Dome and run the Orange out of it.  Here's what I think happened - Pitt exploited the zone and showed how athletic guards with some size could dribble-penetrate into the gaps and either score or find open teammates and everybody else has copied them.  Each team they've lost to on this skid has guards who can do just that.  They're done.  Cooked.  Over.

2.  Michigan State Spartans.  Well you knew this was coming, and these guys are just a mess.  A home loss to Michigan and an comeback overtime one-point win against Indiana, also at home, say that this isn't a team that's starting slowly and will peak in March.  No, this is more like a team that sucks and will be lucky to sniff the NCAA tournament, let alone peak during it.  Suddenly, despite being nearly the same team that made the Final Four last year, they're turning the ball over like crazy and playing nearly zero defense - not a great combination.  Their strength of schedule is good, which will keep them in the postseason picture if they can turn it around or at least play like an average team, but it's looking less and less likely that it's even a possibility.  If Wisconsin doesn't implode late in the game in East Lansing, Jeremiah Rivers doesn't miss free throws down the stretch, and Northwestern doesn't blow a lead with 30 seconds to play, the Spartans are 2-7 and in 10th place.  I know that's a lot of IFs, but it just underscores how awful they've been.  And I really don't have a clue why.

3.  Demetri McCamey. I've said it a million times, but I'll say it again:  Demetri McCamey is not a point guard and Illinois will not win their first round NCAA game with him running the show.  He proved me right yet again in the Illini's awful loss @ Indiana this week - Indiana's first win over a ranked team in their last 20 tries.  McCamey's line:  6 points on 2-11 shooting (2-7 from three, nice job getting in the lane, guy), with 3 assists and 5 turnovers.  Even worse, down the stretch Illinois had Brandon Paul running the point, who isn't a point guard either.  Trust me you guys, I know the numbers look like something a good PG would put up (15 pts and 7 assists per game), but just watch him.  Or watch Illinois in any late game situation, several of which they've screwed up already this year.  He's awful.  Please, I beg you, pick against them in round 1 of the tournament.  It's a lock. 

4.  Butler Bulldogs.  I'm actually really sick of writing about Butler, but they keep showing up here because they are a huge disappointment and they suck.  This week they did an absolute awesome job of making sure they don't get an at-large bid, losing to both Milwaukee (at home) and Valparaiso (on the road), dropping their Horizon record to 6-4, overall record to 14-8, and chances of getting an at-large to about 1.4%.  Of course, I'm sure they'll win their conference tournament and sneak in, and everybody will think they are a trendy upset pick, but you'll know they suck and pick against them.  I swear to god if there's a first round Butler/Illinois matchup I'm going to the light something on fire.

5.  The Coreys.  No, not Haim and Feldman.  Those guys rocked in everything, even Dream a Little Dream and that Lost Boys movie with that hot chick from the final season of the O.C. (pictured).  I mean the stupid fake Coreys from Villanova, who are less irritating than Scottie Reynolds but still make me want to punch my own nuts with a pepper grinder.  Villanova had a rough week, losing to Providence on the road and then at home to Georgetown, dropping them to 5-3 in the Big East, and fake Corey Haim and fake Corey Feldman didn't help.  Corey Fisher (Feldman) shot 7-20 in the two games, while Corey Stokes (Haim), whose only identifiable skill is scoring (shooting heroin) went 4-23 (Four.  For. Twenty.  Three) and registered four turnovers against just one assist.  Those two aren't the only reason they went 0-2 this week, because the whole team sucked outside of Maalik Wayns (who we'll call Nicole Eggert), but the Corey's are what make this team go.  Just like grandpa's cadillac.  Probably end up about the same, too.

Oh, and I missed the second half of the Gopher game because I was at a kids' birthday party, so my thoughts on that are:  did you really expect them to win @ Purdue?  Just worry about the games they could/should win.  Let's just win in Bloomington here, mmmmkay?  This one is terrifying.

Atlantic 10 College Basketball 2010 Preview

1.  Xavier Musketeers.  Take note, Dayton dorks, because this is what you call a dynasty.  I remember last year, I think I picked the Musketeers fourth in the A-10 because of who was graduating, and they went ahead and won the conference, again, and made a nice run in the tournament, again.  This year, they once again look like they might be down with Jordan Crawford off to the NBA, but Terrell Holloway is back and I love that little guy.  His development from out of control spaz as a freshman (think Kevin Clark, any year) to stone cold killer has been fun to see, and now in his junior year this is clearly his team and I can't wait to see if he'll be better than Jake Pullen, or merely as good.  With two other starters back, Mark Lyons and a slimmed down Kenny Frease ready to step in and start, and top25-type recruiting class coming in it wouldn't be a shock at all to see them in the sweet 16 for the fourth straight year.

2.  Temple Owls.  On paper this team is probably better than Xavier, but I learned my lesson last year about doubting the Musketeers.  That said, Temple should easily hit their fourth straight NCAA Tournament, and they are certainly back to a perenially good program now under Fran Dunphy.   The Owls lose leading scorer Ryan Brooks, but have enough pieces in place that it shouldn't hurt them.  Juan Fernandez is an oustanding point guard who I really want to compare to Pepe Sanchez, but that's lazy since they're both hispanic so instead I'll say he reminds me a lot of Greivis Vasquez.  With Lavoy Allen also back to dominate the inside, and last year's A-10 sixth man of the year Ramone Moore ready to slide in for Brooks, they're in great shape.

3.  Richmond Spiders.  Of all the graduating players in the conference, nobody is going to miss their guy more than the Spiders will miss David Gonzalvez.  They still have point guard and A-10 player of the year Kevin Anderson back, but he and Gonzalvez formed a nearly unstoppable backcourt duo, averaging 32.4 points between the two of them - 46% of the team's scoring - and were the top two assist and steal guys to boot.  Beyond finding someone to fill in for Gonzalvez, the big key for the season is the continued improvement of PF Justin Harper, who is suddenly getting "potential NBA pick" buzz, as well as if Dan Geriot can get back to close to what he was before he hurt his knee.  He was a double-digit scorer and a beast inside before the injury, but averaged less the 7 points per game last year.  If he is recoverd in year 2 post-surgery, this team goes from a good team to a great team.

4.  St. Louis Billikens.  Majerus's team was one of the youngest in the country last year, but came together and closed strong, finishing 11-5 in the A-10 and denied an NCAA berth due to a very weak non-conference schedule.   This year the schedule has been upgraded along with the expectations, because with their top six scorers back - all of whom were unerclassmen last year - they are in position to get to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2000.  Kwamain Mitchell (16 points, 3 rebs, 3 assists per game), Willie Reed (12 pts, 8 rebs, 2 blks), and Cody Ellis (11 pts, 5 rebs) are a dynamic trio, and the Billikens were one of the toughest defensive teams in the country last year.  Pay attention to their game November 20th vs. Georgia - the result of that one will help give a gauge on how "for real" this team is.  [NOTE:  I have since been informed that Mitchell and Reed have been suspended due to some chick framing them for some kind of sex allegation.  This obviously means that they're screwed.]   

5.  Dayton Flyers.  I've talked about this on here before, but is there a more overrated program than the Flyers?  They continually get praised as if they've accomplished something, but they've only made one NCAA Tournament in the last six years, and they continually underachieve.  Once again this year they'll be built around an overrated power forward who can't stay healthy and a bunch of guards with gigantic question marks surrounded them .  Either way I still have a special place in my heart for Dayton fans, who are almost identical to Packer fans.  They have the same mix of delusion, overconfidence, and entitlement, mixed with a dash of overconfidence and a sprinkle of questionable personal hygiene and mental problems.

6.  Charlotte 49ers.  Interesting team here.  They were cruising towards an NCAA berth last year at 18-5 and 8-1 in conference play before a 1-7 close to the season,  including losses to G. Washington and UMass, left them out of postseason play altogether.  Last year's point guard (Dijuan Harris) is gone and there's some concern about if anybody on the roster can replac ehim, but they return most of last year's team, including the dynamic inside duo of Shamari Spears (16 ppg/6 rpg last year) and Chris Braswell (10 and 9).  New coach Alan Major has a reputation for getting the most out of post players, so this sounds like a good combo to me.  Not like those pizzeria pretzel combos.  Seriously, who thought that one up?  Gross.

7.  Rhode Island Rams.  The Rams might not make the NCAA  Tournament all that often, but they are always a tough, tough, tough matchup, and there's no reason for that not to be the case again this year.  They lose two double-digit scorers from last year's team, but that doesn't mean they aren't still in good shape.  The three returning starters are all good players and give you an excellent balance of a ball-handler (Marquis Jones - 4.1 assists per game, third in A-10), an athletic wing (Delroy James - 13.2ppg, and second on team in 3-pointers despite being 6-8), and a big man in seven-footer Will Martell (8pts, 5 rebs).  Martell needs to improve because his rebounds and blocks are low for a seven-footer and he's the man down low this year.     

 
8.  Duquesne Dukes.  The Dukes return one of the best players you've never heard of in Damian Saunders, a double-double machine who doesn't mind blocking your shot right back in your stupid face if you were dumb enough to bring it to his house.  With four other big-time contributors back, including #2 leading scorer in guard Bill Clark and point guard Eric Evans, this will probably be the best Duquesne team in 30 years, not that it's exactly a huge feat, but you gotta start somewhere.  The Dukes made the NIT two years ago but dropped back into the CBI last season - their first back-to-back postseasons since 1980-1981.  Time to take that next step, boy-os.  Do it for Mike James.

10.  UMass Minutemen.  Leading scorer Ricky Harris is gone and UMass won just twelve games last year, but there is some reason to be optimistic based on what's coming back.   Anthony Gurley, Terrell Vinson, and Freddie Riley are all good all-around wing types who averaged over or close to double-digits in scoring last year and all showed at different times that they are capable of taking over a game against a quality opponent - they just all have to bring that A game at the same time.  If they can find some consistent point guard play (overall UMass had more turnovers than assists) they could finish higher than this.  You could almost call them a sleeper, except they aren't quite good enough.

10.  George Washington Colonials.  GW has ten of last year's twelve contributors back, but one of the guys who is missing is last seasons leading scorer, Damian Hollis, and they weren't exactly world beaters last year, going just 16-13 (6-10 in A10), and it was an empty 16 wins without a single good victory in there anywhere that I could find.  So how do you rate experience coming back, but save a couple of guys, subpar talent?  10th, apparently.

11.  LaSalle Explorers.  If you ever want proof that I'm an idiot, you can look at my picking this team to be one of the top teams in the A-10 last year - probably my biggest whiff ever.  Rodney Green was a superstar and Aaric Murray was a top recruit and I thought they'd surprise.  Well, they did.  They surprised the hell out of me by being a bunch of worthless sucks who sucked.  Now Green is gone, Murray is overrated, and I'll never trust these guys again.  At least until Lionel Simmons II comes to town.

12.  St. Joseph's Hawks.  I don't believe it would be possible to pick a worse time to have a home-and-home with the Hawks, because they were brutal last year and this year ain't fixin' to get much better.  Remember these guys last year?  The team the Gophers beat 97-74 and won just five conference games?  Well, it's basically the same team as last year, except their two best players graduated.  Actually, there is reason for optimism and a good reason to look forward to watching them play, and that's freshman center C.J. Aiken, who was ranked by Rivals as the #8 center who should play immediately.  They also added a couple other solidly ranked, athletic freshman to give them one of the better classes in the conference, that just won't make much of a difference this year.

13.  St. Bonaventure Bonnies.  The good news is that stud big man Andrew Nicholson is back, and last year as a sophomore he was good enough to average 16 points and 7 rebounds per game while shooting 56% from the field.  Pretty awesome.  The bad news is that Jonathan Hall and Chris Matthews (no relation to Eric and Cory) graduated and took over 25% of the team's scoring with them (nearly 50% of the non-Nicholson points) and starting point guard Malcolm Eleby is gone after getting into a fight on-campus.  Why that couldn't have happened to Lawrence Westbrook I'll never know.

14.  Fordham Rams.  This is familiar.  Two years ago Fordham was terrible, but Jio Fontan had a huge year and was the only bright spot.  Then he transferred.  Last year, the Rams were again terrible, but Chris Gaston was a monster, notching 19 double-doubles, and going 30 & 10 three times.  No, he hasn't transferred, but Fordham promises to be awful once again, so he'd have every right to in my book.  Loyalty is admirable, but who wants to play for at team that's won five games the last two season combined.  Yes, combined.  And I mean five total wins, not five conference wins.  It ain't easy being one of the worst offensive and worst defensive teams in the country, Fordham just makes it look easy.


Other Previews:

Other Previews:
Pac-10 College Basketball 2010 Preview
ACC College Basketball 2010 Preview
Big 12 College Basketball 2010 Preview
Big East College Basketball 2010 Preview

NCAA Basketball Preview: Atlantic 10

Just a fascinating conference, which always seems to have one elite team (Xavier for while, St. Joe's before them, GW before them), a handful of decent teams, and some serious dead weight at the bottom.  The problem is that the good teams always beat up on each other while the bottom dwellers drag the overall conference profile down, and the A-10 never gets as many bids as it probably should.


1.  DAYTON.  It looks like it's time for a change at the top, with Xavier taking a step back and the Flyers moving on up.  They have everybody back from the team that beat West Virginia in the first round of the NCAAs last year, which I remember vividly because I had to sit and watch that game in a Dayton bar in Chicago that was packed to the rafters with hippy Dayton fans who were worse than Gopher fans when it comes to the constant ref cheating conspiracy theories and are basically complete hipster doofus morons.  Anyway, they're fortunate because Chris Wright is back and is probably the best player in the A-10 as well as being an absolute beast inside, along with something like 95% of the team's scoring from last year.  If they improve their outside shooting (11th in 3 pt. FG % in the A-10, which has 14 teams) they could make some national noise.

2.  LASALLE.  If Chris Wright isn't the best player in the A-10, it might be LaSalle slasher Rodney Green, who is the second highest returning scorer in the conference at 17.8 ppg last season.  Green isn't a great outside shooter, but he's been remarkably consistent, improving both his three-point shooting as well as his scoring average all three seasons in his career.  He's also not one to disapper in games, as he scored in double-digits in the Explorer's last 26 games in 2008-2009.  He'll be helped by not only three other returning starters, but also by the top ranked incoming recruit in the conference in 6-10 center Aaric Murray, who is #35 on the Rivals Top 150 and the top ranked recruit to play for a non-BCS school this season.  That signing, and a good chance at an NCAA bid this year, mean LaSalle might be relevant for the first time since Lionel Simmons.

3.  RICHMOND.  It seems like Richmond has been the pesky A-10 team for the last couple of years, but not the good kind of pesky because they have nothing but two invitations to the CBI to show for it.  This year things are set up for a run at an NCAA bid.  Their top three scorers are back, including the entire starting backcourt, but more importantly center Dan Geriot returns from a knee injury that caused him to miss all last season.  Geriot led the spiders in both scoring and rebounding two years ago when he was all Atlantic 10.  If he's fully recovered, and with a very tough non-conference schedule, Richmond is set up well for a postseason berth. 

4.  XAVIER.   A new coach and losing boatloads of talent - including over 50% of last year's scoring - means that this will be the toughest year for the Musketeers in a while.  They still have talent coming back.  Guards Terrell Holloway and Mark Lyons and center Kenny Frease were all top 150 recruits when they came out last year, and they add Indiana transfer Jordan Crawford (and if you aren't already sick of the "Crawford dunked on Lebron" story, expect it to get much worse during college basketball season.  They're still talented, but their step back combined with other teams improving means they'll have work to do to win another A-10 crown.

5.  UMASS.  The Minutemen are hurt by departing talent, including A-10 defensive player of the year Tony Gaffney and starting point guard and last year's A-10 second leading assist man Chris Lowe, but the combination of talent returning and new talent should keep them competitive.  The returning talent includes bring back shooting guard Ricky Harris, the leading returning scorer in the conference at 18.2 ppg, as well as fellow double-digit scorer Anthony Gurley, who was originally the #79 recruit on Rivals 150 for 2006 when he comitted to Wake Forest before transferring back.  Joining them is a class universally praised as the best of the Atlantic 10 this season, highlighted by combo forward Terrell Vinson, the #90 prospect this year, as well as four other three-star players.

6.  DUQUENSE.   It's tough to know what to make of the Dukes this season.  On the one hand, they made a run to the A-10 title game last year, finished with a winning conference record for the first time since 1991, made the postseason (NIT) for the first time since 1993, and have everyone coming back with the exception of one guy.  On the other hand, that one guy was guard Aaron Jackson, who led the team in scoring and assists and was second in rebounding and steals.  They were a very efficient offensive team last year (tops in the A-10), and have four guys returning who averaged 9.8 points per game or better, but must get better on defense (13th in the A-10) if they want to gain their first NCAA bid in 33 years.

7. CHARLOTTE.  The 49ers are another team hit hard by graduation, losing top player Lamont Mack among others, but have a very nice influx of talent joining up this year.  Start with dead-eye shooter Shamarr Bowden, an original commit of Virgina Tech who led Charlotte in scoring last offseason during through Canada before getting injured and being forced to redshirt last season.  He'll be back and looking to play off little 5-9 point guard DiJuan Harris who led the conference in assists last season.  Also incoming are #83 prospect PF Chris Braswell and transfer from B.C. Shamari Spears.  Adding these guys to a solid group of returnees means the 49ers could make a little noise this season.

8.  RHODE ISLAND.  Yet another team hit by graduation, the Rams lose their top two scorers from last season, and while they don't have the incoming talent of Charlotte, they do have a good group coming back.  Keith Cothran can't shoot like the departing Jimmy Baron, but he can score in bunches, and Delroy James has similar size, similar numbers, and a similar game to Kahiem Seawright.  Point guard should be fine in the hands of either returning starter Marquis Jones or incoming frosh Akeem Richmond, and if somebody can step up and become the third scorer the Rams will be in good shape.

9.  TEMPLE.  I've seen some previews that have Temple as a league champion contender, but I'm just not seeing it.  They are losing three players, including superstar Dionte Christmas, who led the A-10 in scoring three consecutive seasons and was probably the A-10 player of the year but for the love of god I can't find this information anywhere to confirm or deny.  With no major freshmen influx of talent, they will need somebody to become the go to guy with Christmas gone.  Forward Lavoy Allen seems most likely.  He's their leading returning scorer and was a top 150 talent when he comitted to the Owls. 

10.  ST BONNIE'S.  The Bonnies were in a complete shambles not all that long ago but are starting to get near respectability, going 15-15 last season, their first time with double-digit victories since 2002-2003.  This year could be even more of an improvement, with three double-figure scorers back including last year's A-10 Rookie of the Year in 6-9 Andrew Nicholson.  The Bonnies were one of the fastest teams last season (#22 Tempo), but played scattershot, ending up as one of the least efficient offensive teams (#238) due to poor shooting (#285 in 3pt pct) and horrendous ball control (#305 in turnovers).  If they are going to keep improving, that needs to be addressed.

11.  ST LOUIS.  This Rick Majerus turn-around is taking longer than expected, and might not get started quite yet again this year with the Billikens losing their starting backcourt, Tommie Liddell and Kevin Lisch, who both averaged double-figures in scoring for four straight years and have been the top-2 Billiken scorers for the last three.  Majerus has been stockpiling some talent, at least, including two players from Australia this season which I think is a good sign - foreign players were a hallmark of his excellent teams at Utah, who will join last year's class of four 4-star players.  Notable from that class are PG Kwamain Mitchell, the team's only returning double-figure scorer and leading assist man, and center Brett Thompson, who was ranked #107 by Rivals two years ago but must step up [ED. NOTE:  Fine, I get it.  I'm an idiot.  He's not on SLU any more]. 

12.  SAINT JOE'S.  Free fall.  The Hawks lose their top two players, Ahmad Nivens and Tasheed Carr, who accounted for nearly half of the teams points and rebounds a third of their assists, and there ain't much in the hopper.  Shooting guard Darrin Govens is the leading returning scorer and he's a chucker extraordinaire, flinging up 208 three-point attempts (6th in the A-10, first on the team by nearly 100) despite hitting under 35%.  With no other scorers on the team, we could reach Robert Vaden levels of chuckitude.  Help is on the way, however, with the Hawks having already gained comittments from two top 120 recruits for 2010.

13.  GEORGE WASHINGTON.  It was just four seasons ago the Colonials were loaded and finished the season 27-3, but they have fallen hard and it might be tough to duplicate even last season's 4-12 conference record.  GW loses three of it's top four scorers, and is going to be leaning heavily on it's six newcomers, none of whom are real standouts.  Senior forward Damian Hollis will be the main man and did score 20-plus in two of the team's last four games, but he's no Pops Mensah-Bonsu, that's for sure. 

14.  FORDHAM.  There isn't an OOF big enough to describe what is going on at Fordham.  For starters, they were just 3-25 last year (NOTE:  not a typo), and last in the conference in essentially every statistical category.  Secondly, three of their top four players either transferred or graduated.  Finally, and most bizarre, their best player and former Rivals 150 guy Jio Fontan attempted to transfer, but in something that I can't recall every hearing happen, the school refused to give him his release so now he's stuck.  I have no idea how that is even possible or legal, but apparently it is, so Jio is stuck with an even worse team than last year.  I'm sure he will give his top effort all season long and not become a locker room problem at all. 


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Conference USA