Four more conference tournaments wrapped up last night with North Dakota State taking the Summit (called it!), Robert Morris the NEC (called it!), Valpo the Horizon, and Gonzaga the West Coast (called it!). Gonzaga is obviously good and will be a 1 or 2 seed depending on how some other tournaments shake out, but I don't really see any way any of the other three win a first round game. Maybe Valpo if they get a team that doesn't shoot well. North Carolina would be fun.
Anyway, there are one million tournaments kicking off today so no need for preamble. God knows there'll be enough words for you to read.
ATLANTIC 10:
When did the A-10 become all competitive and deep and fun? This conference has five 20+ game winners already, three more teams with at 17 wins, and eight of fourteen teams finished with a winning record in conference play. They also have four Top 50 teams in kenpom's rankings, and two more in the top 75 with a few more just outside the Top 100. This tournament is going to be wild.
FAVORITE: Davidson. The Wildcats stormed to the #1 seed by winning their final 9 games with four of those wins coming over fellow contenders. Davidson has one of the most fun offenses in the country, playing fast but taking care of the ball, whipping it around the perimeter and draining threes. The register a ton of assists (61% of baskets, ranks 28th), get forty percent of their points from three (ranks 5th), and score 1.9 points per possession (6th in country). All this while playing fast. Super, super fun team.
SLEEPER: VCU. There's no mistaking it - when Briante Weber went down with a knee injury VCU's season derailed. They lost that game and then went 5-5 the rest of the way without any kind of good win. However this is a really talented team with an extremely good coach. Weber was a huge key on both sides of the ball for the Rams, obviously, but would it really surprise you to see Shaka Smart figure something out and go on a run?
THE PICK: Dayton. I can't shake the memory of that run Dayton went on in the NCAAs last year. Yes, each year is different so this isn't the exact same team, but Jordan Sibert and Dyshawn Pierre are both back and looking at their season long results (23-7) they only have one bad loss. Dayton also pretty much shuts down the 3-point line so if it comes down to a Davidson vs. Dayton match-up the Flyers should be able to hang. Though Davidson did beat them by 17 earlier while hitting 12-23 threes. Well, too late to change the pick now.
BIG EAST:
Everyone loves to complain about how the old Big East is no more, and with good reason because those old tournaments were awesome (stupid football). But the new Big East is pretty good. Creighton was a great story last year, and this year Villanova would be getting all kind of attention if it wasn't for Kentucky. The Wildcats (Nova version) have won 12 in row, are 29-2 overall, have played one bad game all year, and have six guys who average between nine and fourteen points per game. Georgetown, Butler, Xavier, Providence, and St. John's are all really good too. You can take away the football schools, but the Big East is still a hell of a basketball conference.
FAVORITE: Villanova. I guess I kind of wrote them up above, but this is a really good team. In that 12 game winning streak to close the season they beat Georgetown, Butler, and St. John's while sweeping Creighton and Providence. That's not beating up on the dregs of the conference, that's just whooping up everybody.
SLEEPER: Providence. This team should be better than it has been, and it's been pretty good (21-10, 11-7). LaDontae Henton is a 20 point per game scorer, and Kris Dunn has triple double potential every time out (15.5 points, 5.6 rebs, 7.4 assists per game). For whatever reason they just lose to every really good team they play. Maybe that's who they are and they're actually just a slightly above average team. Maybe they just need something to spark.
THE PICK: Villanova. Not really sure what else to write here. These guys are really good. They shoot the ball well from everywhere, they take care of the basketball, they get to the free throw line a lot, and they're one of the top assist teams in the country. They also play very good defense, create turnovers, don't foul, and have size and experience. The only real weakness is they aren't a great rebounding team and maybe that bites them in the NCAA Tournament at some point, and Butler could be a bit of a problem but they won't face them until the championship, if they get there. This team's really good.
BIG TEN:
Hey, you've probably heard of these guys. It's kind of a weird year in the Big Ten, because I only really see one Final Four contender. Plenty of Sweet 16 type teams, but other than the stupid Badgers I don't see anyone else advancing past early in the second week at best. Maryland doesn't seem good enough to be a 3 seed from what I've seen, Michigan State certainly has the talent and the Izzo to possibly do that thing Tom Izzo always does, and De'Angelo Russell is good enough to carry the team John Wallace style, but in general I think the Sweet 16 is the ceiling for most of these teams.
FAVORITE: Wisconsin. Like I said, the Badgers are pretty prohibitive favorite here. The won the conference by two games, and by 4+ over everyone except Maryland. This year's version of the Badgers is basically the same as always - play slow, take care of the ball, shoot well and immediately get back on defense to limit transition opportunities, play good defense without taking any chances, allow few offensive rebounds and don't foul (comes with no chances, also no turnovers). This year's version is the most perfect version Bo Ryan has put together, that offensive is the #1 in the country in points per possession, and they have a legitimate star in Frank Kaminsky. As an added wrinkle they actually have some athletic ability with both Sam Dekker and Nigel Hayes, and Bronson Koenig has stepped in for Traveon Jackson with no issue - and Jackson might be back. Yuck.
SLEEPER: Minnesota. Homer alert, yes I know, but hear me out. The Gophers possess a couple of the main characteristics I've outlined in all these previews for a potential sleeper: they have a trait different from most of the rest of the conference (they're the fastest team in the B10), and they have a skill that, if everything breaks right, can win a game all on it's own in their ability to force turnovers (they rank 8th). They've also been right there in almost every game they've lost - the only games that were basically over prior to the endgame were @Maryland, @Indiana, and the two Wisconsin games. I know watching this team all year has you rolling your eyes and shaking your head and I'm with you, but they profile as a sleeper and they wouldn't have to face Wisconsin until a potential final. Stranger things have happened. Probably.
THE PICK: Michigan State. Though Wisconsin is the best team, they also seem to usually take the Big Ten Tournament off having one just once since 2008, and the Spartans seem the best bet to step in and win. The Spartans have that incredible trio of Dawson, Trice, and Valentine and Izzo seems to have the team peaking at the end of the year, as per usual. Sparty closed out 8-3, and even though one of those losses was against the Gophers, I'll give them a pass.
BIG 12:
Everyone says this is the best conference this year, kenpom has them well clear of everyone else, and maybe they're right. Kansas, Oklahoma, Baylor, and Iowa State all have a chance at the Final Four, and I guess you can't forget about West Virginia. You can, however, forget about Oklahoma State if you want. They've completely faded, losing five of their last six. ESPN still has them in as an 11 seed, but unless something changes they have no chance at upsetting anyone.
FAVORITE: Kansas. The Jayhawks are the most confusing team to me this year. At times, I've thought I'd probably pick them to make the Final Four. At other times, they look like a first round upset candidate. At their best they're a hyper athletic bunch with an inside presence, good perimeter shooting, and a bunch of guys who can defend all over the court. At others, they look lost, struggle in the half court offense, and get crushed on the boards. This is why you have a team who can go 13-5 in the best conference in basketball who also got absolutely crushed by Temple. I'm clueless.
SLEEPER: West Virginia. When I think of teams jumping up and doing unexpected things I usually figure they're a team with a star who can carry the team (Juwan Staten?), a team who does one thing so exceptionally well they can swing a game just on that alone (WVU #1 in forcing turnovers in the country), and a team who plays a pace, either slow or fast, that can make other teams uncomfortable (26th fastest team). WVU checks those boxes. Their actual shooting and defense are pretty suspect so It'd probably have to be pretty fluky, but they could do it.
THE PICK: Oklahoma. Some teams just seem built for a tournament type run, call it the eye test or what have you, but for me both Oklahoma and Iowa State seem like those kind of teams to me. They're both very athletic, fast teams who play a hectic pace, while Iowa State excels on offense and Oklahoma on defense. I'm giving the nod to the Sooners because they're a better offensive team than Iowa State is defensive, and Oklahoma's star, Buddy Hield, seems to be trending up while Iowa State's, Georges Niang, is trending down.
CONFERENCE USA:
This is another conference that got rocked by realignment, losing Louisville, Memphis, Cincinnati, and Marquette (among others) over the last ten years - basically every one of their flagship programs. Louisiana Tech has been on the fringe of an at large bid the last couple of years and Old Dominion is near the bubble this year, but I don't think C-USA has been a multi-bid conference in a while. They're still a young conference, so maybe they'll grow into the MVC someday, but they're closer to a low major than a mid major right now.
FAVORITE: Louisiana Tech. This is the third straight year the Bulldogs have won a regular season title - the last two in C-USA and the prior season in the WAC. Yet they haven't been to the NCAA Tournament since 1991 because they've bombed out in the conference tournament every year. Coach Michael White (sounds made up) has established his system in Louisiana, and every year the Bulldogs play fast, play good defense, and create a ton of turnovers while limiting their own. It's worked in the regular season, but like Billy Beane so far his shit doesn't work in the playoffs. Hopefully this is finally the year.
SLEEPER: Western Kentucky. They've won the conference tournament two of the last three years, and won five times in the 2000s in the Sun Belt so they know what they're doing at the end of the year. WKU seems to jump up and become an NCAA Tournament sleeper every few years, led by a star like Courtney Lee, Orlando Mendez-Valdez, or A.J. Slaughter. They certainly have another candidate this year in senior guard T.J. Price, who led the conference in scoring at 17.6 points per game while hitting 42% of his threes. He could certainly carry this team, and he's got three other double digit scorers to help out. Of course, it's hard to believe a team that lost to the Gophers could go on to have any success.
THE PICK: UTEP. I liked UTEP to start the year, and although they haven't done anything to make me say hey wow look at UTEP, they haven't bombed out either. 13-5 in conference play with the #2 offense and #3 defense in CUSA, they're a definite contender, and an early nonconference win over Xavier is better than anything else anyone in the conference can point to. The Miners did get swept by La Tech, but they won't have to face them unless they both make the final, and Tech is flawed enough they might not make it. UTEP can handle anyone else.
MOUNTAIN WEST:
Well it was a run Mountain West Conference. After ranking as a Top 10 Conference by kenpom from 2002-2014, the Mountain West dropped to 12th this year. That might not seem like a big deal, but another way to look at it is after easily putting multiple teams in the tournament year after year, the MWC might be a one bid league this year.
FAVORITE: San Diego State. The only MWC team guaranteed of a bid this year, the Aztecs have a little bit of a dynasty going on here under Steve Fisher with four regular season titles in the last five seasons, though they've only won one conference tournament in that time. This year will also mark their sixth straight NCAA Tournament appearance, with the Aztecs advancing past the first round three times, including a Sweet 16 appearance last season. It's the same team as every other year, although this year might be Fisher's most extreme - it's his best offense and his worst defense in this run of success. Eventually you gotta score. Unlike you in high school.
SLEEPER: Wyoming. Everything started out great for the Cowboys. They came out of the gate at 15-2, including a 4-0 conference start which included wins over Colorado, Colorado State, and Boise State. Then an understandable loss to San Diego State, and two overtime wins and they were 17-3 and 6-1 and dreams of an NCAA bid, their first since 2002, appeared. And then the bottom fell. The Cowboys won just 5 the rest of the way against six losses and the at large dream disappeared. They did lose leading scorer and rebounder Larry Nance Jr. for four games to injury but he's back now, and although Wyoming has gone just 1-3 since his return if they can refind that early season form they could make a run.
THE PICK: Boise State. Similar to Wyoming, Boise State started out well at 10-2 with losses to just Wisconsin and NC State. Similar to Wyoming, they dealt with an injury to last season's leading scorer Anthony Drmic, only he was out for the season. They had a mid-season hiccup, a four game losing streak that killed any at large chances, but since then they've been on fire, going 14-1 to close out the season. The Broncos' second leading scorer last year, Derrick Marks, has completely put this team on his back, averaging over 20 points per game over this stretch, hitting 30 points three times. Oh yeah, they also swept SDSU. So there's that.
PAC 12:
Talk about a top heavy league. Arizona and Utah are top 8 teams per kenpom, then next up is Stanford at #44 (though they seem to be tanking with a 2-5 close to the season). The Wildcats and Utes are both Top 25 in the country in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and the only other team to reach Top 25 in either is Oregon State on defense. Unfortunately, in my opinion, both those teams are super vulnerable. Could be another bad year for the Pac 12. Or Arizona could win the title. What am I, Nostradamus?
FAVORITE: Arizona. So Arizona is 28-3 with a Top 11 mark in both O and D efficiency, so what's my problem? I just haven't been impressed. Nobody on the team seems to be a reliable bet to show up all the time. Just look at their losses this year: UNLV, Oregon State, and Arizona State. Now way around it, those are all three bad losses. Their top end play is as good as it gets with sweeps of Utah, Stanford, and Oregon with non-conference wins over Gonzaga and San Diego State, but how to explain those losses?
SLEEPER: Oregon. Tough to find a sleeper in such a top heavy conference with so many horrible teams at the bottom, but the Ducks stand out. The closed the season 11-2 and mixed a win over Utah in there. They had a shaky start to the season but looking back other than a disastrous trip out to Washington where they got swept their worst loss is to Michigan, so they've mainly taken care of business against bad teams. Joseph Young is the type who can carry a team to a conference title on his own, and if he can't he'll certainly shoot enough to try.
THE PICK: Arizona. I can also completely see them flaming out in their first game, but who else am I going to pick? I should probably trust Utah more than I do looking at their profile and advanced stats, but they just seem to be missing something. Stanford is terrible now, and Oregon just has too many flaws. UCLA is the only other team under consideration, but they've mostly spent the year beating bad and average teams and losing to good ones. Then again, I suppose they need these games more than anyone else so maybe they'll win. I don't know.
SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE:
There was a time, and I think it was true, where John Calipari was a pretty terrible coach. He won because he could recruit, but to call him a great coach was a pretty big stretch. When he won his first national title with that Kentucky team I thought "Man he's lucky. All the best talent and they're all unselfish too. He's lucky Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist don't care about getting the ball." Now, however, he's done it again with an even more talented group. It's clear he's got a skill here. You can boil down a coach to three basic pieces: recruiting, roster management (including player development), and game planning. Calipari has aced two of the three, and is probably average at the third. Hard to argue he shouldn't be called a great coach at this point.
FAVORITE: Kentucky. Duh. Besides the undefeated record, Kentucky finished #1 in both offensive and defensive efficiency in SEC play, and #1 and #8 in DE and OE in the entire country for the season. Kenpom's top 5 players in the conference is made up of 4 Kentucky guys. Yeah, they got pushed to OT by inferior foes in Ole Miss and Texas A&M, but that was back in early January. Since then they've only had five of sixteen games end with a margin in single digits. They're the most talented team in the country and they're peaking. Great.
SLEEPER: Florida. Simply because it's hard for me to believe a Billy Donovan led Gator team could be this bad. I mean their final record was 15-16, which means they aren't even eligible for the NIT. Bizarre. They can still play defense, just .907 points per possession, which ranks 9th in the country this year, and most of their losses have been extremely close so they're not too far from turning it around - only Kentucky has beaten them by double figures since mid-January. A lot of bad luck for this team, maybe things tip here.
THE PICK: Kentucky. Duh. Again. It's going to take some extraordinary circumstances for Kentucky to lose this year. The most interesting game for them will be in round 2, where they will probably face the best team they've played since Arkansas over a month ago. The eight or nine seed will be someone along the lines of North Carolina State or Ohio State, and they'd be a second or third place team in the SEC. I'm interested to see Kentucky against some top competition again, but I can't fathom not picking them to not only win the SEC Tournament, but the NCAA Tournament as well.
SOUTHLAND:
The Southland is not dissimilar to the Ohio Valley - there's a great team here, one that dominated the conference, in this case going 17-1. A team that rates well at kenpom at #43 (Murray State is #77), and a team that has no chance at an at-large bid because of the weak conference competition and a bad non-conference schedule (though they do have a win over Memphis and an overtime loss to Northern Iowa). Yes, Stephen F. Austin is essentially Murray State all over again - they can win a game or two in the NCAA Tournament, but they have no margin for error to get there.
FAVORITE: Stephen F Austin. The Lumberjacks are back again, once again dominating the Southland by playing pressing like crazy (#4 in creating turnovers this year), and passing (#4 in assist percentage) and shooting the ball well (#10 in eFG). Last year they finished the regular season 29-2 and 18-0 in conference, won the conference tournament, and went on to beat VCU in an overtime thriller in round 1. Hopefully they can get through again, because this could legitimately be a Sweet 16 team. No lie.
SLEEPER: Northwestern State. Even though SFA swept Northwestern State this season, the Demons game looks like it could give the Lumberjacks fits. They're the fastest team in the conference so SFA's pace won't throw them (though the majority of the conference is pretty fast anyway), they don't turn the ball over at all, so that could cut Austin's advantage down, and they're a super efficient scoring team so they could score enough points to keep up with the Lumberjacks. Now, their defense is horrible so they'll have to score a ton to keep up with what SFA will put up, but still I'd rather see Northwestern State knocked off before they get a shot at Austin in the semifinals.
THE PICK: Stephen F Austin. We've already lost two potential giant killers in Iona and Murray State, please don't take our Lumberjacks away from us as well. With two of their big scorers back from last year's team we need these guys back in the tournament - they're fun as hell.
SWAC:
Pretty much always the bottom ranked conference at kenpom year after year and usually with some teams not eligible for the post season because of ARP issues, this year the SWAC is the bottom ranked conference at kenpom and is dealing with some teams not being eligible for the postseason due to ARP issues. There are 10 teams in this mess of a conference, and four of them - Southern, Arkansas Pine Bluff, Mississippi Valley State, and Grambling - are ineligible for post season play. They all get to participate in the SWAC Tournament, though Southern, the second place team in the league, is the only one with much of a chance to win. And then send the loser of the championship to the NCAAs. Unless they're ineligible too. Then I don't know what happens. Just disband the SWAC already.
FAVORITE: Texas Southern. Last season the Tigers rode LaSalle and WVU transfer Aaric Murray and a few other transfers to a SWAC Ttile and a berth in the First Four (lost to Cal Poly). This year, the returning Madarious Gibbs is joined by a handful of transfers, and despite a whole lot of roster turnover they're in position to make it back to the First Four. Don't forget, Texas Southern hasn't just beaten up on their conference foes - they have wins this year over Michigan State and Kansas State. I'm not sure how though. They're terrible at everything.
SLEEPER: Alabama State. The Hornets were #2 in both offensive and defensive efficiency in SWAC play this year, while Texas Southern was #1 in offensive but #5 in defensive. They did get swept by Texas Southern this year, but they pretty much handled everyone else.
THE PICK: Texas Southern. Their stat sheet looks horrible, but they have those wins over Michigan State and Kansas State and they did win the regular season crown. Anything can happen with teams that are this bad, so sticking with the chalk makes sense. Or just throw a dart, but make sure it doesn't hit an ineligible team.
Whew. That was a lot. I'm tired.
Showing posts with label Atlantic 10. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Atlantic 10. Show all posts
Wednesday, March 11, 2015
Monday, September 26, 2011
NCAA Basketball Preview - The Atlantic 10
Here's what you're going to want to do - watch "New Girl" from Fox. It debuted on Tuesday night and I think me and the missus laughed more than we've ever laughed at the first episode of anything, and that includes Parks and Rec. It stars one of my big crushes, Zooey Deschanel, and although she's always been quirky funny she really, truly can carry a show as the funny lead and she knocks it out of the park here. Then there's three dumb guys who she moves in with who I've never heard of but actually do an adequate job.
So watch it. It's on every Tuesday at 8pm, and they're replaying the pilot on Saturday October 1st so do it. If you've ever trusted my judgement about anything, watch this show. But also know that I have dibs on Zooey. I've been into her since her Almost Famous and The Good Girl, so back off. I have dibs on her sister too.
I have a lot of dibs. Anyways, here comes the A-10!!!!!
1. XAVIER MUSKETEERS. Tu Holloway (who sounded cooler when he was going by Terrell) is back after nearly jumping to the NBA so that pretty much automatically makes Xavier the favorite because he's so retardedly good, but he's got plenty of help. Mark Lyons joins him in the backcourt and nearly doubled his scoring average last year all the way up to 13.6, and Kenny Frease is back to man the middle. All of which means X has their top three scorers back. They're also adding three top 140 recruits including Dezmine Wells, a SF who ranked #76 on Rivals list and is all but guaranteed to be the next Musketeer superstar. They also imported Travis Taylor who is not a crappy receiver from Florida but is in fact a power forward who transferred from Monmouth where he lit it up for nearly 18 points per game. I'm comfortable at this point saying Xavier doesn't rebuild, they just reload.
2. TEMPLE OWLS. If the back court is what really makes good teams good then Temple is off to a good start despite losing power forward Lavoy Allen who averaged 12 and 9 last year. Back is SG Ramone Moore, last year's leading scorer at over 15 per game, as well as Juan Fernandez. You remember Fernandez as the hipster pot head looking guy who killed Talor Battle with his off-balance miracle shot in the NCAA Tournament. He's super annoying to look at, really irritating to watch, and really his numbers aren't even that great and he can't really shoot, but somehow he has that annoying knack for making the plays when they're needed.
3. ST LOUIS BILLIKENS. I suppose it didn't make sense to think Rick Majerus would turn St. Louis around super fastly but I did because I love that fat-ass. But after a good year two seasons ago (11-5 A-10) they regressed hard last year, finishing at 6-10 last year, not in small part because their two best players - Willie Reed and Kwamain Mitchell - missed all of last season because of sexual assault charges. Both were cleared - Reed bolted for the NBA (undrafted, nice job genius), but getting Mitchell back is huge for a Billiken team that returns all five starters and their 8 top scorers from last season. If this isn't the year St. Louis makes the NCAA Tournament it's probably time to just end the program all together. Maybe all the other A-10 coaches could have fun little luau where they roast Majerus for food and invite A.C. Slater and it would be fun for all. Except Majerus.
4. GEORGE WASHINGTON COLONIALS. GW went an impressive 10-6 in the A-10 last season. Unfortunately that didn't remotely get them in the conversation for an NCAA bid because they didn't even come close to playing anybody in the non-conference slate and didn't beat any of the league's good teams during conference play. Still it's a good jumping off point for this season, and with only one starter gone from last year's team and getting back Lasan Kromah, who was second on the team in scoring two years ago as a freshman before missing last year with a foot injury, GW might be in contention to reach the NCAA Tournament. Tony Taylor is a player of the year candidate, and with a tougher schedule that includes games against Cal, Syracuse, and VCU, they have a shot.
5. CHARLOTTE 49ERS. The 49ers return four starters from last year's squad, but I'm not sure that's a good thing. Last year they couldn't shoot, turned the ball over like crazy, never registered assists, and couldn't play defense. All that led to a 10-20 record with just 2 conference wins. There is, however, reason to have some hope because three of those 10 wins came over Xavier, Tennessee, and Georgia Tech, so when things do come together for Charlotte they can play well, it just didn't happen with any regularity last year. Of those returners, three scored in double figures last year, including their top two assist and steal guys. If they can shoot a little better, take care of the ball a little better, and play better defense they could be dangerous. Yes, that's a lot of ifs and I don't know why I believe they'll be better. Maybe I just like green uniforms.
6. ST JOE'S HAWKS. I've seen St. Joe's referenced as a potential A-10 sleeper, but I'm not sure I really see it. Yes, they only lost one starter and not a very good one at that, but this is also a team that was beaten by the Gophers at home last year so how good can they be? Still, they have a couple of good guards including Carl Jones who is the third leading returning scorer in the conference with 17 per game, along with sophomore center C.J. Aiken who was ranked the #8 incoming freshman center in the country last season. Although Aiken is a bit of a project on offense he's already a killer on defense and averaged 3.5 blocks per game last season which led the conference and was second nationally. So I guess they do have some talent. But still, the Gophers.
7. DAYTON FLYERS. I've spent plenty of time in other A-10 previews talking about how Dayton has terrible fans so I won't rehash that here, especially since this year is going to be a toughie for the Flyers. Not only did they lose their coach, but they also lost leading scorer Chris Wright to graduation and freshman point guard Juwan Staten, who led the A-10 in assists, decided to transfer after realizing how much Dayton sucked. They still have Chris Johnson, a guy I really like who is an all-around kind of guy and superior athlete, and PG Kevin Dillard, a transfer from So Ill, led the MVC in assists his sophomore year so he's not a monster step down from Staten, but the talent level has definitely waned in Dayton. Gregory got out at the right time.
8. ST BONAVENTURE BONNIES. What St. Bonnie's has going for them is maybe the best player in the conference in Andrew Nicholson. What they don't have going for them is everything else. Nicholson is now a senior, and has gone from a 2-star center from Canada whose only D-I Scholarship offer came from St. Bonnie's to a guy who led the conference in scoring at 22 per game last year. All he needs is a little help and there's a couple of other returners who averaged in double-figures, but let's be honest St. Bonnie's has never been on tv so who am I kidding trying to write about them?
9. UMASS MINUTEMEN. They lose their best player and top scorer in Anthony Gurley, but return everybody else. The problem is that nobody besides Gurley averaged more than 8.5 points per game, so what you're left with is nine different players who averaged between 4.3 and 8.5 points per game last year, and I have no idea how that's going to shake itself out. If multiple players step up their game and become double digit scorers and all-conference types they could finish significantly higher than this. On the other hand, if nobody takes a leap and improves from last season they could be bottom dwellers. Obviously, I think neither of those things will happen and they'll just float here at #9. Go me!
10. DUQUESNE DUKES. The Dukes chance to shine was last year, but they came up a bit short. After starting the conference season 8-0, Duquesne limped to the finish at 2-6 and then were dropped in the first round of the A-10 tourney by crappy St. Joe's and ended up in the CBI since their non-conference resume was basically non-existent. Now both Damian Saunders and Bill Clark, two of the best players in Duquesne history, are gone and although there's still some talent here they certainly aren't in the same class they were in (or could have been in) last year. They return three pretty good guards, including A-10 rookie of the year T.J. McConnell, and since they play an extreme uptempo style that's a good start and they should end up ok, but they definitely whiffed on a big opportunity last season.
11. RICHMOND SPIDERS. After reaching the sweet 16 last year and setting a school record for victories, the Spiders have been massacred by graduations, losing four starters who accounted for nearly 70% of the team's scoring last year and over half of their rebounds and assists, including Kevin Anderson and Justin Harper who were both All A-10 first team selections last year. So yeah, they have a lot of uncertainty going on. Richmond has begun to establish itself as one of the elite basketball schools in the conference, but it's going to take some big years from unexpected places to keep them there.
12. FORDHAM RAMS. The sad thing about Fordham, other than the fact that their win totals have been three, two, and seven the past three years (and those are total wins, not conference wins), is that they actually have one of the best players in the conference in power forward Chris Gaston, who was the only A-10 player to average a double-double at 15.9 points and 11.3 rebounds (4th in the nation). The problem is he has zero help, so defenses really do nothing other than throw double and triple teams at him and it works because they are terrible at everything, and there's really no reason to think they're going to be much better. They lose their second leading scorer, but return two other double digit scorers in Branden Frazier (from Dudley Do-Right) and Alberto Estwick. If either of those guys can take some pressure of Gaston, maybe they could get to a CIT bid. Aim high.
13. RHODE ISLAND RAMS. Remember Jimmy Baron? The coaches son who played for the Rams a couple of years ago and rained down 8 three-pointers in Cameron and almost single-handedly beat Duke? He's been gone now for a couple of years, but little brother Billy just transferred in from Virginia and he profiles as a similar player. Which is good, because most of the excitement left Rhodey after last year with three of their top four scorers, including second team A-10 selection Delroy James. Joining Baron will be a couple returnees who are also excellent outside shooters and any time a team has a couple of outside threats they can also manage an upset or two, but that's about all the Rams will be good for this year.
14. LASALLE EXPLORERS. When Aaric Murray, who was ranked as the #35 overall recruit and #5 center in the country coming into school in 2009, it was a huge, huge deal. Here was a hometown kid from just outside Philly who was going to return the Explorers to the glory days of Lionel Simmons. Well. Insert fart sound. LaSalle went 4-12 and 6-10 in A-10 games the last two years, and although Murray put up good numbers he was also benched for poor effort last season and has now transferred to West Virgina with nary a post-season berth on the record. With two other double-digit scorers lost to graduation LaSalle finds itself in a position similar to the Minnesota Twins - no hope and no prospects, and one of the worst teams in the country.
Other Previews:
Big 12
ACC
So watch it. It's on every Tuesday at 8pm, and they're replaying the pilot on Saturday October 1st so do it. If you've ever trusted my judgement about anything, watch this show. But also know that I have dibs on Zooey. I've been into her since her Almost Famous and The Good Girl, so back off. I have dibs on her sister too.
I have a lot of dibs. Anyways, here comes the A-10!!!!!
1. XAVIER MUSKETEERS. Tu Holloway (who sounded cooler when he was going by Terrell) is back after nearly jumping to the NBA so that pretty much automatically makes Xavier the favorite because he's so retardedly good, but he's got plenty of help. Mark Lyons joins him in the backcourt and nearly doubled his scoring average last year all the way up to 13.6, and Kenny Frease is back to man the middle. All of which means X has their top three scorers back. They're also adding three top 140 recruits including Dezmine Wells, a SF who ranked #76 on Rivals list and is all but guaranteed to be the next Musketeer superstar. They also imported Travis Taylor who is not a crappy receiver from Florida but is in fact a power forward who transferred from Monmouth where he lit it up for nearly 18 points per game. I'm comfortable at this point saying Xavier doesn't rebuild, they just reload.
2. TEMPLE OWLS. If the back court is what really makes good teams good then Temple is off to a good start despite losing power forward Lavoy Allen who averaged 12 and 9 last year. Back is SG Ramone Moore, last year's leading scorer at over 15 per game, as well as Juan Fernandez. You remember Fernandez as the hipster pot head looking guy who killed Talor Battle with his off-balance miracle shot in the NCAA Tournament. He's super annoying to look at, really irritating to watch, and really his numbers aren't even that great and he can't really shoot, but somehow he has that annoying knack for making the plays when they're needed.
3. ST LOUIS BILLIKENS. I suppose it didn't make sense to think Rick Majerus would turn St. Louis around super fastly but I did because I love that fat-ass. But after a good year two seasons ago (11-5 A-10) they regressed hard last year, finishing at 6-10 last year, not in small part because their two best players - Willie Reed and Kwamain Mitchell - missed all of last season because of sexual assault charges. Both were cleared - Reed bolted for the NBA (undrafted, nice job genius), but getting Mitchell back is huge for a Billiken team that returns all five starters and their 8 top scorers from last season. If this isn't the year St. Louis makes the NCAA Tournament it's probably time to just end the program all together. Maybe all the other A-10 coaches could have fun little luau where they roast Majerus for food and invite A.C. Slater and it would be fun for all. Except Majerus.
4. GEORGE WASHINGTON COLONIALS. GW went an impressive 10-6 in the A-10 last season. Unfortunately that didn't remotely get them in the conversation for an NCAA bid because they didn't even come close to playing anybody in the non-conference slate and didn't beat any of the league's good teams during conference play. Still it's a good jumping off point for this season, and with only one starter gone from last year's team and getting back Lasan Kromah, who was second on the team in scoring two years ago as a freshman before missing last year with a foot injury, GW might be in contention to reach the NCAA Tournament. Tony Taylor is a player of the year candidate, and with a tougher schedule that includes games against Cal, Syracuse, and VCU, they have a shot.
5. CHARLOTTE 49ERS. The 49ers return four starters from last year's squad, but I'm not sure that's a good thing. Last year they couldn't shoot, turned the ball over like crazy, never registered assists, and couldn't play defense. All that led to a 10-20 record with just 2 conference wins. There is, however, reason to have some hope because three of those 10 wins came over Xavier, Tennessee, and Georgia Tech, so when things do come together for Charlotte they can play well, it just didn't happen with any regularity last year. Of those returners, three scored in double figures last year, including their top two assist and steal guys. If they can shoot a little better, take care of the ball a little better, and play better defense they could be dangerous. Yes, that's a lot of ifs and I don't know why I believe they'll be better. Maybe I just like green uniforms.
6. ST JOE'S HAWKS. I've seen St. Joe's referenced as a potential A-10 sleeper, but I'm not sure I really see it. Yes, they only lost one starter and not a very good one at that, but this is also a team that was beaten by the Gophers at home last year so how good can they be? Still, they have a couple of good guards including Carl Jones who is the third leading returning scorer in the conference with 17 per game, along with sophomore center C.J. Aiken who was ranked the #8 incoming freshman center in the country last season. Although Aiken is a bit of a project on offense he's already a killer on defense and averaged 3.5 blocks per game last season which led the conference and was second nationally. So I guess they do have some talent. But still, the Gophers.
7. DAYTON FLYERS. I've spent plenty of time in other A-10 previews talking about how Dayton has terrible fans so I won't rehash that here, especially since this year is going to be a toughie for the Flyers. Not only did they lose their coach, but they also lost leading scorer Chris Wright to graduation and freshman point guard Juwan Staten, who led the A-10 in assists, decided to transfer after realizing how much Dayton sucked. They still have Chris Johnson, a guy I really like who is an all-around kind of guy and superior athlete, and PG Kevin Dillard, a transfer from So Ill, led the MVC in assists his sophomore year so he's not a monster step down from Staten, but the talent level has definitely waned in Dayton. Gregory got out at the right time.
8. ST BONAVENTURE BONNIES. What St. Bonnie's has going for them is maybe the best player in the conference in Andrew Nicholson. What they don't have going for them is everything else. Nicholson is now a senior, and has gone from a 2-star center from Canada whose only D-I Scholarship offer came from St. Bonnie's to a guy who led the conference in scoring at 22 per game last year. All he needs is a little help and there's a couple of other returners who averaged in double-figures, but let's be honest St. Bonnie's has never been on tv so who am I kidding trying to write about them?
9. UMASS MINUTEMEN. They lose their best player and top scorer in Anthony Gurley, but return everybody else. The problem is that nobody besides Gurley averaged more than 8.5 points per game, so what you're left with is nine different players who averaged between 4.3 and 8.5 points per game last year, and I have no idea how that's going to shake itself out. If multiple players step up their game and become double digit scorers and all-conference types they could finish significantly higher than this. On the other hand, if nobody takes a leap and improves from last season they could be bottom dwellers. Obviously, I think neither of those things will happen and they'll just float here at #9. Go me!
10. DUQUESNE DUKES. The Dukes chance to shine was last year, but they came up a bit short. After starting the conference season 8-0, Duquesne limped to the finish at 2-6 and then were dropped in the first round of the A-10 tourney by crappy St. Joe's and ended up in the CBI since their non-conference resume was basically non-existent. Now both Damian Saunders and Bill Clark, two of the best players in Duquesne history, are gone and although there's still some talent here they certainly aren't in the same class they were in (or could have been in) last year. They return three pretty good guards, including A-10 rookie of the year T.J. McConnell, and since they play an extreme uptempo style that's a good start and they should end up ok, but they definitely whiffed on a big opportunity last season.
11. RICHMOND SPIDERS. After reaching the sweet 16 last year and setting a school record for victories, the Spiders have been massacred by graduations, losing four starters who accounted for nearly 70% of the team's scoring last year and over half of their rebounds and assists, including Kevin Anderson and Justin Harper who were both All A-10 first team selections last year. So yeah, they have a lot of uncertainty going on. Richmond has begun to establish itself as one of the elite basketball schools in the conference, but it's going to take some big years from unexpected places to keep them there.
12. FORDHAM RAMS. The sad thing about Fordham, other than the fact that their win totals have been three, two, and seven the past three years (and those are total wins, not conference wins), is that they actually have one of the best players in the conference in power forward Chris Gaston, who was the only A-10 player to average a double-double at 15.9 points and 11.3 rebounds (4th in the nation). The problem is he has zero help, so defenses really do nothing other than throw double and triple teams at him and it works because they are terrible at everything, and there's really no reason to think they're going to be much better. They lose their second leading scorer, but return two other double digit scorers in Branden Frazier (from Dudley Do-Right) and Alberto Estwick. If either of those guys can take some pressure of Gaston, maybe they could get to a CIT bid. Aim high.
13. RHODE ISLAND RAMS. Remember Jimmy Baron? The coaches son who played for the Rams a couple of years ago and rained down 8 three-pointers in Cameron and almost single-handedly beat Duke? He's been gone now for a couple of years, but little brother Billy just transferred in from Virginia and he profiles as a similar player. Which is good, because most of the excitement left Rhodey after last year with three of their top four scorers, including second team A-10 selection Delroy James. Joining Baron will be a couple returnees who are also excellent outside shooters and any time a team has a couple of outside threats they can also manage an upset or two, but that's about all the Rams will be good for this year.
14. LASALLE EXPLORERS. When Aaric Murray, who was ranked as the #35 overall recruit and #5 center in the country coming into school in 2009, it was a huge, huge deal. Here was a hometown kid from just outside Philly who was going to return the Explorers to the glory days of Lionel Simmons. Well. Insert fart sound. LaSalle went 4-12 and 6-10 in A-10 games the last two years, and although Murray put up good numbers he was also benched for poor effort last season and has now transferred to West Virgina with nary a post-season berth on the record. With two other double-digit scorers lost to graduation LaSalle finds itself in a position similar to the Minnesota Twins - no hope and no prospects, and one of the worst teams in the country.
Other Previews:
Big 12
ACC
Tuesday, March 8, 2011
Championship Week, part II
Sometimes I love the first part of Championship Week(s) the most, when the smaller conferences are battling for their tournament lives, do or die, with smaller schools and lesser known players that only hardcore nerds like me know anything about. Other times I prefer Week II, this week, with the higher profile, higher skilled teams - and lots and lots of day action to wager on. In any case, I love all of it. These tournaments get rolling today:
ATLANTIC 10: Thought at the beginning of the year to be one of the "high mid-major" conferences to really breakthrough this year, that never quite happened. Still, they're likely to be sending at least three teams to the NCAAs, and all three look legit enough that they could make a Sweet 16 run.
FAVORITE: Xavier. The Musketeers won the regular season title once again, despite once again looking like they lost too much fire power from last year's team. They've made three straight sweet 16s, and it doesn't seem to matter who the coach is they are just tough when it comes to tournament play. Tu Holloway is the kind of dude who can just carry a team.
SLEEPER: George Washington. The top three (Xavier, Temple, Richmond) have a pretty good stranglehold on this league and Duquesne has completely fallen off the map, so the nominal role of sleeper goes to the Colonials. Although they went 0-4 against the top teams, they did manage to go 10-2 against everybody else. So that's something.
W's PICK: Xavier. You'd be a fool to pick against Xavier in any kind of tournament setting. And I'm not no fool.
WHO'S DANCING: Xavier, Richmond, Temple
Congrats to Gonzaga, Old Dominion, St. Peter's, and Wofford for cashing in last night and winning their conference tournaments. All of them, with the exception of St. Pete's, are threats to win a first round matchup next week, with the Zags and Monarchs legit Sweet 16 type teams. As far as the losers go, both St. Mary's and VCU have a chance at receiving an at-large bid and I think both should. For St. Mary's, however, the weird game they schedule for this Friday against Weber State looms large. Lose that and they're probably out. Truly a no-win/big lose situation for them. Weird choice.
As far as tonight goes, there are three games you want to keep your eye on: Marquette vs. Providence, Oakland vs. Oral Roberts, and Butler vs. Milwaukee. Marquette is probably in regardless, but a win over Providence would seal it, while a loss would make for a nervous selection Sunday for the Eagles. Butler might be in might not, but Milwaukee definitely isn't so they need to win the Horizon title, and Oakland is in the same boat. The Golden Grizzlies are definitely a threat in March and this entire season has felt like a mission specifically designed to get in, and get wins in, the NCAA Tournament. They have to get passed ORU, however, in order to do it. Also, I guess Princeton @ Penn. If Princeton wins they tie Harvard atop the Ivy standings and there will be a one-game playoff. If they lose, Harvard is in. Fun night of games.
ATLANTIC 10: Thought at the beginning of the year to be one of the "high mid-major" conferences to really breakthrough this year, that never quite happened. Still, they're likely to be sending at least three teams to the NCAAs, and all three look legit enough that they could make a Sweet 16 run.
FAVORITE: Xavier. The Musketeers won the regular season title once again, despite once again looking like they lost too much fire power from last year's team. They've made three straight sweet 16s, and it doesn't seem to matter who the coach is they are just tough when it comes to tournament play. Tu Holloway is the kind of dude who can just carry a team.
SLEEPER: George Washington. The top three (Xavier, Temple, Richmond) have a pretty good stranglehold on this league and Duquesne has completely fallen off the map, so the nominal role of sleeper goes to the Colonials. Although they went 0-4 against the top teams, they did manage to go 10-2 against everybody else. So that's something.
W's PICK: Xavier. You'd be a fool to pick against Xavier in any kind of tournament setting. And I'm not no fool.
WHO'S DANCING: Xavier, Richmond, Temple
BIG EAST: Remember all that "how many bids can the Big East get" talk? And remember at one point the media starting mentioning things like "Can the Big East get 11 bids" and it all sounding so ridiculous? Well they've got 10 definite locks and assuming Marquette doesn't somehow lose to Providence in the opening round they'll have 11. Really though, there isn't much at stake here other than seeding since most teams have their bids wrapped up already. Both Pitt and Notre Dame are playing for a one seed. Villanova sucks.
FAVORITE: Pitt. I wrote about how I think Notre Dame is upset proof, but Pitt is the Big East team I think is the best and the most likely to win the national title. Offense, defense, inside, outside - very solid all-around team.
SLEEPER: Seton Hall. I'll avoid picking any of the NCAA teams as a potential sleeper and go with the Hall. They're a very good defensive team (14th best in the country according to kenpom) that has struggled offensively, leading to a disappointing season. They do, however, have Jeremy Hazell, the kind of player who can get hot and carry a team on a run. They won't be able to run the table in this tough of a league, but it wouldn't shock me if they knocked off a team or two.
W's PICK: St. Johns. With pretty much every team already having a bid locked up it's all about who has the fire to win a somewhat meaningless gauntlet of games - who has the fire and will to show up each day and bring their best in a game that barely matters against a quality opponent, knowing it's going to be a physical battle? I like the Red Storm here because they're a senior laden squad getting their first tastes of meaningful play and they love the Garden.
WHO'S DANCING: Syracuse, UCONN, St. John's, Pitt, Notre Dame, Marquette, Cincinnati, Georgetown, West Virginia, Louisville, Villanova.
MID-AMERICAN: Shouldn't the MAC be better? I feel like it really should be, but they haven't sent multiple teams to the NCAA Tournament since 1999. That isn't going to change this year and there aren't exactly signs that it will be changing any time soon. Unfortunately this conference has fallen into the bottom half of the NCAA at this point. Aren't you just pumped for this tournament now?
FAVORITE: Kent State. They won the league with a 12-4 record, and two of their losses were in overtime so it's safe to say they did a pretty solid job of dominating this year.
SLEEPER: Central Michigan. The Chippewas were a bit of a disappointment this year, finishing just 7-9 in MAC play, but there is enough talent here to make a run. Freshman Trey Ziegler might be the most talented player in the league and is the best on this team (top-2 in pts, rebs, and assists) and if he and Jalin Thomas get hot at the same time they could definitely do some damage.
W's PICK: Ohio. Kent State has the best record, CMU has the best player, but Ohio has the best stats - as in they rank the highest at kenpom.com at #97, and it's not even close (Kent is #163). There are enough guys back from last year's team that improbably won the MAC Tournament and then knocked off Georgetown that they could go on another run. Plus there best player is named D.J. Cooper, which is just close enough to D.B. Cooper to be cool. And he averages 7.4 assists per game to go with his 16 points per. You gotta like that.
MID-EASTERN ATLANTIC: The winner of this conference usually makes an appearance in the play-in game. Since there will be two play-in games for the worst four qualifiers and the MEAC ranks as the second worst conference that gets a bid this year, I feel safe saying that whoever wins should make plans to be in Dayton on Tuesday.
FAVORITE: Bethune-Cookman. BCU has always been one of my favorite schools, mainly because way back in the day when the Gophers played them I couldn't stop laughing at the name because it just seemed so ridiculous, so it makes me happy to see them at the top of the conference. The only other thing I can tell you about this school is that it's traditionally so bad that when you did a career mode on NCAA Hoops 2k8, which means they had you start as a coach at one of the worst schools in the country, Bethune-Cookman was one of your ten choices to begin your coaching career. They're bad. This would be a big deal if they seal the deal.
SLEEPER: Hampton. Really these teams are so bad that all it would take is one team getting hot and they could take the whole thing down. I'll go with Hampton as a sleeper because they are actually a pretty decent defensive team - something unique to them amongst these teams.
W's PICK: Bethune-Cookman. It's gotta be. It would be huge for them. Their wikipedia page only talks about baseball, golf, and football - doesn't even mention the basketball squad. No respect.
MOUNTAIN WEST: One of the biggest questions facing bracket-filler-outers this year is how good is the Mountain West? BYU and SDSU are going to end up with top 3 seeds most likely, so do you believe it, or not? Personally I do, at least in the case of SDSU. I would probably feel the same about BYU, but I'm not really what to make of them sans Brandon Davies and his terrible horrible crime.
FAVORITE: BYU. Still gotta go with the Cougars here even without Davies since they swept San Diego State, but without him I just don't know if they can hang. He's basically their entire inside presence, and I fear that they've gone from a Final Four contender to a team with an upside of the Sweet 16. Too bad. As a wise man once said, you gotta stay away from women, boys. All they want is your man juice.
SLEEPER: New Mexico. They were an NCAA first-round winner last year, and although they lost a ton off that team they've still been solid this year behind former Cyclone Dairese Gary and former Bruin Drew Gordon. Although they were a disappointing 8-8 in conference play they did well against the big boys, sweeping BYU (their only two conference losses) and, although they were swept by UNLV the two losses were by 1 and by 3 in overtime. This was a talented, yet underachieving team. Those are always dangerous in March.
W's PICK: San Diego State. They are just so much more talented than every other team in this conference. BYU was on the same level, but without Davies I just don't see how they can contain the inside play of SDSU. I also feel like the Aztecs are being overlooked just a bit. Don't do that. They are a legit Sweet 16 or better squad.
WHO'S DANCING: SDSU, BYU, UNLV
Congrats to Gonzaga, Old Dominion, St. Peter's, and Wofford for cashing in last night and winning their conference tournaments. All of them, with the exception of St. Pete's, are threats to win a first round matchup next week, with the Zags and Monarchs legit Sweet 16 type teams. As far as the losers go, both St. Mary's and VCU have a chance at receiving an at-large bid and I think both should. For St. Mary's, however, the weird game they schedule for this Friday against Weber State looms large. Lose that and they're probably out. Truly a no-win/big lose situation for them. Weird choice.
As far as tonight goes, there are three games you want to keep your eye on: Marquette vs. Providence, Oakland vs. Oral Roberts, and Butler vs. Milwaukee. Marquette is probably in regardless, but a win over Providence would seal it, while a loss would make for a nervous selection Sunday for the Eagles. Butler might be in might not, but Milwaukee definitely isn't so they need to win the Horizon title, and Oakland is in the same boat. The Golden Grizzlies are definitely a threat in March and this entire season has felt like a mission specifically designed to get in, and get wins in, the NCAA Tournament. They have to get passed ORU, however, in order to do it. Also, I guess Princeton @ Penn. If Princeton wins they tie Harvard atop the Ivy standings and there will be a one-game playoff. If they lose, Harvard is in. Fun night of games.
Monday, December 6, 2010
Week in Review - 12.06.2010
Back by popular demand - the week in review. I would have had this up for your Monday morning consumption, however Comcast decided to make sure nobody in the midwest who uses their service was able to access the internet. I was caught in their evil web of lies and evil. Luckily, we're back, so let's go.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Trevor Mbakwe. I'm starting to think calling him Reign Man II was maybe the most accurate thing I've ever done. Freakishly athletic? Check. Strong dunker? Check. Incredible rebounder? Check. Unable to score from further than 8 feet from the rim? Check. Commits dumb fouls? Check. Seriously, all he needs is a bunch of kids by different ladies and a bunch less IQ points and he'd be Shawn Kemp, and I mean that as a total compliment because Kemp was one of my all-time favorites. Really maybe the lone bright spot in a pretty crappy week for your favorite team, Mbakwe put up 18 and 11 against Virginia, and nearly brought the Gophers back in that game, and then followed it up with 12 and 16 vs. Cornell. It will be interesting to see how he fares against the other Big Ten bigs, but so far he looks like he's on a whole different level out there - something the Gophers haven't seen at PF since......Courtney James, I guess?
2. LaceDarius Dunn. The Baylor star guard has simply been on fire since being cleared on a domestic assault charge that was clearly a case of either mistaken identity or someone trying to frame him. In his three games back he's scored 24, 20, and 24 and averaged 4.3 rebound and 3.3 assists to go along with that while shooting 53% from the floor and going 16-31 from three, including 6-12 in Thursday's win over Arizona State. The Bears are looking good with Lace looking primed for a big year, stud recruit Perry Jones living up to the hype, and the guys the needed to step up (A.J. Walton, Quincy Acy) have played well. They've had a candy soft schedule so far, but keep an eye open for their December 18th game against Gonzaga, that one should give an idea of just how good Baylor can be. They're still 30-1 to win the whole thing. I suggest you grab some of that action now.
3. Jon Leuer. Of all the Minnesota high school players who the Gophers have lost out on, Leuer might end up hurting the most. He joins a nice list of high school greats who spurned Dan Monson and found success elsewhere (Troy Bell, Cole Aldrich, Cory Johnson, Ryan Amoroso, Kammron Taylor, Lawrence McKenzie (initially), and Isaiah Dahlman (just kidding) to name a few) but if his stats so far this year are any indication Leuer might be the best of the bunch. He dominated in both games this week, both in the big win over NC State (22 pts, 11 rebs, 2 stls, 2 blks, 2 assists) and in the easy win over South Dakota (29 pts, 9 rebs, 4 blks, 2 steals, 2 assists), and his overall numbers are certainly Big Ten POY worthy (20/8/2/1/2 with 50% shooting). Pretty depressing. He's like Mike Bauer if he actually kept improving instead of falling in love with the three-pointer and ignoring everything else.
4. North Carolina Tar Heels. I wouldn't exactly say they're going to be alright, but the win over Kentucky shows they can at least beat a quality, if overrated, team. Tyler Zeller looks like an absolute player and he absolutely dominated the Wildcats, putting up 27 points (on 8-13 shooting), 11 boards, and 5 blocks and teamed with John Henson to block 8 shots and force Terrence Jones, a super-stud as a freshman so far this, into 3-17 shooting, basically confusing him, not allowing him to get any clean looks in the paint, and basically winning the game for the Heels because their guards and Barnes are still meh. I don't know if they can get into the NCAA Tournament, but every quality win they can get helps the Gophers' chances so let's go Heels.
5. San Diego State Aztecs. A couple of very solid wins this week for SDSU, who continue to cruise. This week they played a couple of other quality mid-majors - St. Mary's and Wichita State - and had zero problems. They beat both teams by 14, and now sit and 8-0 with a quality win over Gonzaga on their resume already. They've got a pretty easy road until they hit Mountain West play, and the MWC should be strong enough this year that SDSU should cruise to a bid as long as they don't complete crash and burn, and there's no reason to suspect that they might. They have enough balance (6 guys score at least 8 per game) to handle a bad night from anybody, and the star power in Kawhi Leonard to carry them far in March. Consider them a solid sleeper. And I have them at 100-1. Holla.
WHO SUCKED
1. Minnesota Gophers Perimeter Defense. Once is a fluke, twice is a problem, and a season-long issue is a major major problem that is going to kill this team at some point. Virginia shot 10-13 from behind the arc and Cornell followed that up going 14-33, and the Gophers are now allowing their opponents to shoot 38.8% from three for the season, which ranks 296th in the country and dead last in the Big Ten. Making the alarm bells right a wee bit harder is the fact that Northwestern, Michigan State, and Illinois all rank in the top 25 in three-point shooting in the country, and every Big Ten team outside of Penn State, Iowa, and Michigan shoot better than the D-I average. So basically we're looking at two choices - learn how to defend the perimeter, whether through scheme, hard work, smarter decisions, or some combination, or get shredded all season long. Not exactly Sophie's Choice here. And if Tubby can't fix this, we have to start questioning him a bit, don't we?
2. The Pac 10. USC did manage to beat Texas on Sunday, but prior to that the Pac-10 was cruising towards a second straight year of terribleness. Just this week USC lost to TCU, Oregon State lost to Utah Valley (and got crushed by Colorado), and UCLA lost to Montana - and you can find a handful of games just like that for the conference each and every week. Washington is looking like a Final Four type team and Arizona looks solid, but that's pretty much it. UCLA and Washington State each have a shot at a bid depending on how things go, but it's very likely we're looking at just two tournament teams here.
3. Atlantic 10. If you pay way too much attention to this blog you know I probably like the A-10 a little bit more than I really should (with the exception of Dayton, which is full of whiny poser pansies), so it is with great pain I must announce that the A-10 is most certainly down this year. There were supposed to be four very strong teams (Xavier, Dayton, Richmond, and Temple) along with a handful of sleeper candidates (St. Louis, Charlotte, and Rhode Island) - unfortunately it's not quite looking that way. Just this week, St. Louis got smoked by Portland, Charlotte was downed by East Carolina, Xavier got rolled by Miami (OH), East Tennessee State came into Dayton and beat the Flyers, and Richmond, the one team that's looking good so far, lost to Old Dominion. With the exception of the ODU game those are all bad, bad losses. I'm thinking two bids might be the best case scenario here. Shame. And it would be a double shame if one of them went to Dayton.
4. Virginia Tech Hokies. The past two years have ended the same way for the Hokies: Coach Seth Greenberg whining and bitching because Va Tech didn't get an NCAA tournament bid despite a good conference season because they would schedule an insanely weak non-conference slate. This year they finally scheduled up, but that doesn't help if you can't win, and they can't win. So far they've lost to Kansas State, UNLV, Purdue, and Virginia - the last two this week alone - and are now just 4-4 with only a win over Oklahoma State to show for their efforts. They still have shots coming up against Penn State and Mississippi State, but man, they better do something. Special shout-out to Hokie star Malcolm Delaney for shooting 2-18 (TWO FOR EIGHTEEN!!lol) and committing the fourth of his turnovers on the final play of the game to lose the game. Bravo.
5. North Carolina State Wolfpack. Not so much for their loss to Syracuse on Saturday, because the Orange are a very good team and NC State hung tough until the end, but for their embarrassing destruction by Wisconsin in their Big-10/ACC Challenge match-up. They lost by 39, shot 32% while allowing 50% from Wisconsin, were out-rebounded 40-26, turned it over 13 times to just 9 assists, and forced just six turnovers. In short, a total disaster. They are certainly a talented team, but still very young, so a game like this was probably inevitable, but they need to start grabbing some quality wins here in order to justify my faith in them. They have a game coming up in a couple weeks against Arizona. Better win that one.
Honorable mention to Old Dominion, who were basically following a perfect blueprint on how to get an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament as a mid-major until this weekend when they lost to Delaware in their conference opener. The Fightin' Blue Hens are expected to be a factor in the CAA race or any race, really, so this loss is going to hurt. ODU has probably done enough to buy themselves some breathing room, but this loss cuts that cushion way, way down. Way to go, jerks!
Also, can we please calm down about Michael Jordan's kid? Thanks.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Trevor Mbakwe. I'm starting to think calling him Reign Man II was maybe the most accurate thing I've ever done. Freakishly athletic? Check. Strong dunker? Check. Incredible rebounder? Check. Unable to score from further than 8 feet from the rim? Check. Commits dumb fouls? Check. Seriously, all he needs is a bunch of kids by different ladies and a bunch less IQ points and he'd be Shawn Kemp, and I mean that as a total compliment because Kemp was one of my all-time favorites. Really maybe the lone bright spot in a pretty crappy week for your favorite team, Mbakwe put up 18 and 11 against Virginia, and nearly brought the Gophers back in that game, and then followed it up with 12 and 16 vs. Cornell. It will be interesting to see how he fares against the other Big Ten bigs, but so far he looks like he's on a whole different level out there - something the Gophers haven't seen at PF since......Courtney James, I guess?
2. LaceDarius Dunn. The Baylor star guard has simply been on fire since being cleared on a domestic assault charge that was clearly a case of either mistaken identity or someone trying to frame him. In his three games back he's scored 24, 20, and 24 and averaged 4.3 rebound and 3.3 assists to go along with that while shooting 53% from the floor and going 16-31 from three, including 6-12 in Thursday's win over Arizona State. The Bears are looking good with Lace looking primed for a big year, stud recruit Perry Jones living up to the hype, and the guys the needed to step up (A.J. Walton, Quincy Acy) have played well. They've had a candy soft schedule so far, but keep an eye open for their December 18th game against Gonzaga, that one should give an idea of just how good Baylor can be. They're still 30-1 to win the whole thing. I suggest you grab some of that action now.
3. Jon Leuer. Of all the Minnesota high school players who the Gophers have lost out on, Leuer might end up hurting the most. He joins a nice list of high school greats who spurned Dan Monson and found success elsewhere (Troy Bell, Cole Aldrich, Cory Johnson, Ryan Amoroso, Kammron Taylor, Lawrence McKenzie (initially), and Isaiah Dahlman (just kidding) to name a few) but if his stats so far this year are any indication Leuer might be the best of the bunch. He dominated in both games this week, both in the big win over NC State (22 pts, 11 rebs, 2 stls, 2 blks, 2 assists) and in the easy win over South Dakota (29 pts, 9 rebs, 4 blks, 2 steals, 2 assists), and his overall numbers are certainly Big Ten POY worthy (20/8/2/1/2 with 50% shooting). Pretty depressing. He's like Mike Bauer if he actually kept improving instead of falling in love with the three-pointer and ignoring everything else.
4. North Carolina Tar Heels. I wouldn't exactly say they're going to be alright, but the win over Kentucky shows they can at least beat a quality, if overrated, team. Tyler Zeller looks like an absolute player and he absolutely dominated the Wildcats, putting up 27 points (on 8-13 shooting), 11 boards, and 5 blocks and teamed with John Henson to block 8 shots and force Terrence Jones, a super-stud as a freshman so far this, into 3-17 shooting, basically confusing him, not allowing him to get any clean looks in the paint, and basically winning the game for the Heels because their guards and Barnes are still meh. I don't know if they can get into the NCAA Tournament, but every quality win they can get helps the Gophers' chances so let's go Heels.
5. San Diego State Aztecs. A couple of very solid wins this week for SDSU, who continue to cruise. This week they played a couple of other quality mid-majors - St. Mary's and Wichita State - and had zero problems. They beat both teams by 14, and now sit and 8-0 with a quality win over Gonzaga on their resume already. They've got a pretty easy road until they hit Mountain West play, and the MWC should be strong enough this year that SDSU should cruise to a bid as long as they don't complete crash and burn, and there's no reason to suspect that they might. They have enough balance (6 guys score at least 8 per game) to handle a bad night from anybody, and the star power in Kawhi Leonard to carry them far in March. Consider them a solid sleeper. And I have them at 100-1. Holla.
WHO SUCKED
1. Minnesota Gophers Perimeter Defense. Once is a fluke, twice is a problem, and a season-long issue is a major major problem that is going to kill this team at some point. Virginia shot 10-13 from behind the arc and Cornell followed that up going 14-33, and the Gophers are now allowing their opponents to shoot 38.8% from three for the season, which ranks 296th in the country and dead last in the Big Ten. Making the alarm bells right a wee bit harder is the fact that Northwestern, Michigan State, and Illinois all rank in the top 25 in three-point shooting in the country, and every Big Ten team outside of Penn State, Iowa, and Michigan shoot better than the D-I average. So basically we're looking at two choices - learn how to defend the perimeter, whether through scheme, hard work, smarter decisions, or some combination, or get shredded all season long. Not exactly Sophie's Choice here. And if Tubby can't fix this, we have to start questioning him a bit, don't we?
2. The Pac 10. USC did manage to beat Texas on Sunday, but prior to that the Pac-10 was cruising towards a second straight year of terribleness. Just this week USC lost to TCU, Oregon State lost to Utah Valley (and got crushed by Colorado), and UCLA lost to Montana - and you can find a handful of games just like that for the conference each and every week. Washington is looking like a Final Four type team and Arizona looks solid, but that's pretty much it. UCLA and Washington State each have a shot at a bid depending on how things go, but it's very likely we're looking at just two tournament teams here.
3. Atlantic 10. If you pay way too much attention to this blog you know I probably like the A-10 a little bit more than I really should (with the exception of Dayton, which is full of whiny poser pansies), so it is with great pain I must announce that the A-10 is most certainly down this year. There were supposed to be four very strong teams (Xavier, Dayton, Richmond, and Temple) along with a handful of sleeper candidates (St. Louis, Charlotte, and Rhode Island) - unfortunately it's not quite looking that way. Just this week, St. Louis got smoked by Portland, Charlotte was downed by East Carolina, Xavier got rolled by Miami (OH), East Tennessee State came into Dayton and beat the Flyers, and Richmond, the one team that's looking good so far, lost to Old Dominion. With the exception of the ODU game those are all bad, bad losses. I'm thinking two bids might be the best case scenario here. Shame. And it would be a double shame if one of them went to Dayton.
4. Virginia Tech Hokies. The past two years have ended the same way for the Hokies: Coach Seth Greenberg whining and bitching because Va Tech didn't get an NCAA tournament bid despite a good conference season because they would schedule an insanely weak non-conference slate. This year they finally scheduled up, but that doesn't help if you can't win, and they can't win. So far they've lost to Kansas State, UNLV, Purdue, and Virginia - the last two this week alone - and are now just 4-4 with only a win over Oklahoma State to show for their efforts. They still have shots coming up against Penn State and Mississippi State, but man, they better do something. Special shout-out to Hokie star Malcolm Delaney for shooting 2-18 (TWO FOR EIGHTEEN!!lol) and committing the fourth of his turnovers on the final play of the game to lose the game. Bravo.
5. North Carolina State Wolfpack. Not so much for their loss to Syracuse on Saturday, because the Orange are a very good team and NC State hung tough until the end, but for their embarrassing destruction by Wisconsin in their Big-10/ACC Challenge match-up. They lost by 39, shot 32% while allowing 50% from Wisconsin, were out-rebounded 40-26, turned it over 13 times to just 9 assists, and forced just six turnovers. In short, a total disaster. They are certainly a talented team, but still very young, so a game like this was probably inevitable, but they need to start grabbing some quality wins here in order to justify my faith in them. They have a game coming up in a couple weeks against Arizona. Better win that one.
Honorable mention to Old Dominion, who were basically following a perfect blueprint on how to get an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament as a mid-major until this weekend when they lost to Delaware in their conference opener. The Fightin' Blue Hens are expected to be a factor in the CAA race or any race, really, so this loss is going to hurt. ODU has probably done enough to buy themselves some breathing room, but this loss cuts that cushion way, way down. Way to go, jerks!
Also, can we please calm down about Michael Jordan's kid? Thanks.
Monday, October 25, 2010
Atlantic 10 College Basketball 2010 Preview
1. Xavier Musketeers. Take note, Dayton dorks, because this is what you call a dynasty. I remember last year, I think I picked the Musketeers fourth in the A-10 because of who was graduating, and they went ahead and won the conference, again, and made a nice run in the tournament, again. This year, they once again look like they might be down with Jordan Crawford off to the NBA, but Terrell Holloway is back and I love that little guy. His development from out of control spaz as a freshman (think Kevin Clark, any year) to stone cold killer has been fun to see, and now in his junior year this is clearly his team and I can't wait to see if he'll be better than Jake Pullen, or merely as good. With two other starters back, Mark Lyons and a slimmed down Kenny Frease ready to step in and start, and top25-type recruiting class coming in it wouldn't be a shock at all to see them in the sweet 16 for the fourth straight year.
2. Temple Owls. On paper this team is probably better than Xavier, but I learned my lesson last year about doubting the Musketeers. That said, Temple should easily hit their fourth straight NCAA Tournament, and they are certainly back to a perenially good program now under Fran Dunphy. The Owls lose leading scorer Ryan Brooks, but have enough pieces in place that it shouldn't hurt them. Juan Fernandez is an oustanding point guard who I really want to compare to Pepe Sanchez, but that's lazy since they're both hispanic so instead I'll say he reminds me a lot of Greivis Vasquez. With Lavoy Allen also back to dominate the inside, and last year's A-10 sixth man of the year Ramone Moore ready to slide in for Brooks, they're in great shape.
3. Richmond Spiders. Of all the graduating players in the conference, nobody is going to miss their guy more than the Spiders will miss David Gonzalvez. They still have point guard and A-10 player of the year Kevin Anderson back, but he and Gonzalvez formed a nearly unstoppable backcourt duo, averaging 32.4 points between the two of them - 46% of the team's scoring - and were the top two assist and steal guys to boot. Beyond finding someone to fill in for Gonzalvez, the big key for the season is the continued improvement of PF Justin Harper, who is suddenly getting "potential NBA pick" buzz, as well as if Dan Geriot can get back to close to what he was before he hurt his knee. He was a double-digit scorer and a beast inside before the injury, but averaged less the 7 points per game last year. If he is recoverd in year 2 post-surgery, this team goes from a good team to a great team.
4. St. Louis Billikens. Majerus's team was one of the youngest in the country last year, but came together and closed strong, finishing 11-5 in the A-10 and denied an NCAA berth due to a very weak non-conference schedule. This year the schedule has been upgraded along with the expectations, because with their top six scorers back - all of whom were unerclassmen last year - they are in position to get to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2000. Kwamain Mitchell (16 points, 3 rebs, 3 assists per game), Willie Reed (12 pts, 8 rebs, 2 blks), and Cody Ellis (11 pts, 5 rebs) are a dynamic trio, and the Billikens were one of the toughest defensive teams in the country last year. Pay attention to their game November 20th vs. Georgia - the result of that one will help give a gauge on how "for real" this team is. [NOTE: I have since been informed that Mitchell and Reed have been suspended due to some chick framing them for some kind of sex allegation. This obviously means that they're screwed.]
5. Dayton Flyers. I've talked about this on here before, but is there a more overrated program than the Flyers? They continually get praised as if they've accomplished something, but they've only made one NCAA Tournament in the last six years, and they continually underachieve. Once again this year they'll be built around an overrated power forward who can't stay healthy and a bunch of guards with gigantic question marks surrounded them . Either way I still have a special place in my heart for Dayton fans, who are almost identical to Packer fans. They have the same mix of delusion, overconfidence, and entitlement, mixed with a dash of overconfidence and a sprinkle of questionable personal hygiene and mental problems.
6. Charlotte 49ers. Interesting team here. They were cruising towards an NCAA berth last year at 18-5 and 8-1 in conference play before a 1-7 close to the season, including losses to G. Washington and UMass, left them out of postseason play altogether. Last year's point guard (Dijuan Harris) is gone and there's some concern about if anybody on the roster can replac ehim, but they return most of last year's team, including the dynamic inside duo of Shamari Spears (16 ppg/6 rpg last year) and Chris Braswell (10 and 9). New coach Alan Major has a reputation for getting the most out of post players, so this sounds like a good combo to me. Not like those pizzeria pretzel combos. Seriously, who thought that one up? Gross.
7. Rhode Island Rams. The Rams might not make the NCAA Tournament all that often, but they are always a tough, tough, tough matchup, and there's no reason for that not to be the case again this year. They lose two double-digit scorers from last year's team, but that doesn't mean they aren't still in good shape. The three returning starters are all good players and give you an excellent balance of a ball-handler (Marquis Jones - 4.1 assists per game, third in A-10), an athletic wing (Delroy James - 13.2ppg, and second on team in 3-pointers despite being 6-8), and a big man in seven-footer Will Martell (8pts, 5 rebs). Martell needs to improve because his rebounds and blocks are low for a seven-footer and he's the man down low this year.
8. Duquesne Dukes. The Dukes return one of the best players you've never heard of in Damian Saunders, a double-double machine who doesn't mind blocking your shot right back in your stupid face if you were dumb enough to bring it to his house. With four other big-time contributors back, including #2 leading scorer in guard Bill Clark and point guard Eric Evans, this will probably be the best Duquesne team in 30 years, not that it's exactly a huge feat, but you gotta start somewhere. The Dukes made the NIT two years ago but dropped back into the CBI last season - their first back-to-back postseasons since 1980-1981. Time to take that next step, boy-os. Do it for Mike James.
10. UMass Minutemen. Leading scorer Ricky Harris is gone and UMass won just twelve games last year, but there is some reason to be optimistic based on what's coming back. Anthony Gurley, Terrell Vinson, and Freddie Riley are all good all-around wing types who averaged over or close to double-digits in scoring last year and all showed at different times that they are capable of taking over a game against a quality opponent - they just all have to bring that A game at the same time. If they can find some consistent point guard play (overall UMass had more turnovers than assists) they could finish higher than this. You could almost call them a sleeper, except they aren't quite good enough.
10. George Washington Colonials. GW has ten of last year's twelve contributors back, but one of the guys who is missing is last seasons leading scorer, Damian Hollis, and they weren't exactly world beaters last year, going just 16-13 (6-10 in A10), and it was an empty 16 wins without a single good victory in there anywhere that I could find. So how do you rate experience coming back, but save a couple of guys, subpar talent? 10th, apparently.
11. LaSalle Explorers. If you ever want proof that I'm an idiot, you can look at my picking this team to be one of the top teams in the A-10 last year - probably my biggest whiff ever. Rodney Green was a superstar and Aaric Murray was a top recruit and I thought they'd surprise. Well, they did. They surprised the hell out of me by being a bunch of worthless sucks who sucked. Now Green is gone, Murray is overrated, and I'll never trust these guys again. At least until Lionel Simmons II comes to town.
12. St. Joseph's Hawks. I don't believe it would be possible to pick a worse time to have a home-and-home with the Hawks, because they were brutal last year and this year ain't fixin' to get much better. Remember these guys last year? The team the Gophers beat 97-74 and won just five conference games? Well, it's basically the same team as last year, except their two best players graduated. Actually, there is reason for optimism and a good reason to look forward to watching them play, and that's freshman center C.J. Aiken, who was ranked by Rivals as the #8 center who should play immediately. They also added a couple other solidly ranked, athletic freshman to give them one of the better classes in the conference, that just won't make much of a difference this year.
13. St. Bonaventure Bonnies. The good news is that stud big man Andrew Nicholson is back, and last year as a sophomore he was good enough to average 16 points and 7 rebounds per game while shooting 56% from the field. Pretty awesome. The bad news is that Jonathan Hall and Chris Matthews (no relation to Eric and Cory) graduated and took over 25% of the team's scoring with them (nearly 50% of the non-Nicholson points) and starting point guard Malcolm Eleby is gone after getting into a fight on-campus. Why that couldn't have happened to Lawrence Westbrook I'll never know.
14. Fordham Rams. This is familiar. Two years ago Fordham was terrible, but Jio Fontan had a huge year and was the only bright spot. Then he transferred. Last year, the Rams were again terrible, but Chris Gaston was a monster, notching 19 double-doubles, and going 30 & 10 three times. No, he hasn't transferred, but Fordham promises to be awful once again, so he'd have every right to in my book. Loyalty is admirable, but who wants to play for at team that's won five games the last two season combined. Yes, combined. And I mean five total wins, not five conference wins. It ain't easy being one of the worst offensive and worst defensive teams in the country, Fordham just makes it look easy.
Other Previews:
Other Previews:
Pac-10 College Basketball 2010 Preview
ACC College Basketball 2010 Preview
Big 12 College Basketball 2010 Preview
Big East College Basketball 2010 Preview
2. Temple Owls. On paper this team is probably better than Xavier, but I learned my lesson last year about doubting the Musketeers. That said, Temple should easily hit their fourth straight NCAA Tournament, and they are certainly back to a perenially good program now under Fran Dunphy. The Owls lose leading scorer Ryan Brooks, but have enough pieces in place that it shouldn't hurt them. Juan Fernandez is an oustanding point guard who I really want to compare to Pepe Sanchez, but that's lazy since they're both hispanic so instead I'll say he reminds me a lot of Greivis Vasquez. With Lavoy Allen also back to dominate the inside, and last year's A-10 sixth man of the year Ramone Moore ready to slide in for Brooks, they're in great shape.
3. Richmond Spiders. Of all the graduating players in the conference, nobody is going to miss their guy more than the Spiders will miss David Gonzalvez. They still have point guard and A-10 player of the year Kevin Anderson back, but he and Gonzalvez formed a nearly unstoppable backcourt duo, averaging 32.4 points between the two of them - 46% of the team's scoring - and were the top two assist and steal guys to boot. Beyond finding someone to fill in for Gonzalvez, the big key for the season is the continued improvement of PF Justin Harper, who is suddenly getting "potential NBA pick" buzz, as well as if Dan Geriot can get back to close to what he was before he hurt his knee. He was a double-digit scorer and a beast inside before the injury, but averaged less the 7 points per game last year. If he is recoverd in year 2 post-surgery, this team goes from a good team to a great team.
4. St. Louis Billikens. Majerus's team was one of the youngest in the country last year, but came together and closed strong, finishing 11-5 in the A-10 and denied an NCAA berth due to a very weak non-conference schedule. This year the schedule has been upgraded along with the expectations, because with their top six scorers back - all of whom were unerclassmen last year - they are in position to get to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2000. Kwamain Mitchell (16 points, 3 rebs, 3 assists per game), Willie Reed (12 pts, 8 rebs, 2 blks), and Cody Ellis (11 pts, 5 rebs) are a dynamic trio, and the Billikens were one of the toughest defensive teams in the country last year. Pay attention to their game November 20th vs. Georgia - the result of that one will help give a gauge on how "for real" this team is. [NOTE: I have since been informed that Mitchell and Reed have been suspended due to some chick framing them for some kind of sex allegation. This obviously means that they're screwed.]
5. Dayton Flyers. I've talked about this on here before, but is there a more overrated program than the Flyers? They continually get praised as if they've accomplished something, but they've only made one NCAA Tournament in the last six years, and they continually underachieve. Once again this year they'll be built around an overrated power forward who can't stay healthy and a bunch of guards with gigantic question marks surrounded them . Either way I still have a special place in my heart for Dayton fans, who are almost identical to Packer fans. They have the same mix of delusion, overconfidence, and entitlement, mixed with a dash of overconfidence and a sprinkle of questionable personal hygiene and mental problems.
6. Charlotte 49ers. Interesting team here. They were cruising towards an NCAA berth last year at 18-5 and 8-1 in conference play before a 1-7 close to the season, including losses to G. Washington and UMass, left them out of postseason play altogether. Last year's point guard (Dijuan Harris) is gone and there's some concern about if anybody on the roster can replac ehim, but they return most of last year's team, including the dynamic inside duo of Shamari Spears (16 ppg/6 rpg last year) and Chris Braswell (10 and 9). New coach Alan Major has a reputation for getting the most out of post players, so this sounds like a good combo to me. Not like those pizzeria pretzel combos. Seriously, who thought that one up? Gross.
7. Rhode Island Rams. The Rams might not make the NCAA Tournament all that often, but they are always a tough, tough, tough matchup, and there's no reason for that not to be the case again this year. They lose two double-digit scorers from last year's team, but that doesn't mean they aren't still in good shape. The three returning starters are all good players and give you an excellent balance of a ball-handler (Marquis Jones - 4.1 assists per game, third in A-10), an athletic wing (Delroy James - 13.2ppg, and second on team in 3-pointers despite being 6-8), and a big man in seven-footer Will Martell (8pts, 5 rebs). Martell needs to improve because his rebounds and blocks are low for a seven-footer and he's the man down low this year.
8. Duquesne Dukes. The Dukes return one of the best players you've never heard of in Damian Saunders, a double-double machine who doesn't mind blocking your shot right back in your stupid face if you were dumb enough to bring it to his house. With four other big-time contributors back, including #2 leading scorer in guard Bill Clark and point guard Eric Evans, this will probably be the best Duquesne team in 30 years, not that it's exactly a huge feat, but you gotta start somewhere. The Dukes made the NIT two years ago but dropped back into the CBI last season - their first back-to-back postseasons since 1980-1981. Time to take that next step, boy-os. Do it for Mike James.
10. UMass Minutemen. Leading scorer Ricky Harris is gone and UMass won just twelve games last year, but there is some reason to be optimistic based on what's coming back. Anthony Gurley, Terrell Vinson, and Freddie Riley are all good all-around wing types who averaged over or close to double-digits in scoring last year and all showed at different times that they are capable of taking over a game against a quality opponent - they just all have to bring that A game at the same time. If they can find some consistent point guard play (overall UMass had more turnovers than assists) they could finish higher than this. You could almost call them a sleeper, except they aren't quite good enough.
10. George Washington Colonials. GW has ten of last year's twelve contributors back, but one of the guys who is missing is last seasons leading scorer, Damian Hollis, and they weren't exactly world beaters last year, going just 16-13 (6-10 in A10), and it was an empty 16 wins without a single good victory in there anywhere that I could find. So how do you rate experience coming back, but save a couple of guys, subpar talent? 10th, apparently.
11. LaSalle Explorers. If you ever want proof that I'm an idiot, you can look at my picking this team to be one of the top teams in the A-10 last year - probably my biggest whiff ever. Rodney Green was a superstar and Aaric Murray was a top recruit and I thought they'd surprise. Well, they did. They surprised the hell out of me by being a bunch of worthless sucks who sucked. Now Green is gone, Murray is overrated, and I'll never trust these guys again. At least until Lionel Simmons II comes to town.
12. St. Joseph's Hawks. I don't believe it would be possible to pick a worse time to have a home-and-home with the Hawks, because they were brutal last year and this year ain't fixin' to get much better. Remember these guys last year? The team the Gophers beat 97-74 and won just five conference games? Well, it's basically the same team as last year, except their two best players graduated. Actually, there is reason for optimism and a good reason to look forward to watching them play, and that's freshman center C.J. Aiken, who was ranked by Rivals as the #8 center who should play immediately. They also added a couple other solidly ranked, athletic freshman to give them one of the better classes in the conference, that just won't make much of a difference this year.
13. St. Bonaventure Bonnies. The good news is that stud big man Andrew Nicholson is back, and last year as a sophomore he was good enough to average 16 points and 7 rebounds per game while shooting 56% from the field. Pretty awesome. The bad news is that Jonathan Hall and Chris Matthews (no relation to Eric and Cory) graduated and took over 25% of the team's scoring with them (nearly 50% of the non-Nicholson points) and starting point guard Malcolm Eleby is gone after getting into a fight on-campus. Why that couldn't have happened to Lawrence Westbrook I'll never know.
14. Fordham Rams. This is familiar. Two years ago Fordham was terrible, but Jio Fontan had a huge year and was the only bright spot. Then he transferred. Last year, the Rams were again terrible, but Chris Gaston was a monster, notching 19 double-doubles, and going 30 & 10 three times. No, he hasn't transferred, but Fordham promises to be awful once again, so he'd have every right to in my book. Loyalty is admirable, but who wants to play for at team that's won five games the last two season combined. Yes, combined. And I mean five total wins, not five conference wins. It ain't easy being one of the worst offensive and worst defensive teams in the country, Fordham just makes it look easy.
Other Previews:
Other Previews:
Pac-10 College Basketball 2010 Preview
ACC College Basketball 2010 Preview
Big 12 College Basketball 2010 Preview
Big East College Basketball 2010 Preview
Monday, March 1, 2010
Week in Review - 3/1/2010
Well that was a pretty good win. Not good as in pretty, or good as in they finally figured out how to close out a game, but good as in that was a season saver. I can't really give you the usual brilliant, in-depth analysis you've come to expect because I was watching the game while at a beer bust, but I saw enough to know my prediction of a big gopher lead early, a gopher lead late, and a Illinois comeback and win damn near came true. That's not the important thing, however. The important thing is that they did get this win, and now are in ok shape for a tournament bid, even showing up on the "last four out" for Joe Lunardi. Win at Michigan and beat Iowa here, then win one big ten tournament game and it's very interesting.
If you just compare the Gophers and Illinois quick, they have basically the same record, although Illinois is two games better in conference play. The Gophers have the better RPI (70 to 74) and better Strength of Schedule (37 to 61). Both teams have two wins over top 25 RPI teams, while Illinois has a total of four over top 50 teams compared to just three for the Gophers and they have nearly identical records against the top 100. The Gophers have three bad losses (vs. teams over 100 in the RPI) while Illinois has two. The Gophers are 4-8 in road/neutral games, while Illinois is 6-8. The best win by either of the two teams goes to the Gophers with their win over Butler, and both team's have beaten Wisconsin.
I know the bids supposedly don't compare teams within the conference like this and look at the team's as an overall whole, but it's useful to know where the Gophers stand in comparison to the Illini. It also serves as a depressing reminder that if you reverse almost any loss on the Gopher schedule, they are ahead of Illinois, but as it stands right now they are probably slightly behind. In any case, it's time to win. There's no room for error.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Notre Dame. Bill Simmons' Ewing Theory in full effect? Seriously, has anybody has as impressive a week all year as Notre Dame had this week? They beat both Pitt and Georgetown, both by double-digits, and have gone from "probably out" to "probably in" all in a four day span - and they've done it without Luke Harangody. Since he's been out it's just been a bunch of role-players just used to deferring to him, but maybe we're finding out they aren't role players (even if Tory Jackson has the decision-making skills of a rock). Ben Hansbrough has stepped up his scoring since Harangody went out, averaging 15 per game (compared to 12), but the guy who has really helped out is junior forward Carleton Scott, who is averaging 9.3 points and 6.3 rebounds per game since the injury compared to 3.5 of each beforehand. Basically the Irish have played really well since Luke went down, and now find themselves in good shape for an NCAA bid. Which means he'll come back next week, they'll lose two, bow out early in the Big East tournament, and find themselves in the NIT again.
2. Syracuse. Wow. And also, wow. What an impressive victory over Villanova, the alleged #8 team in the land. The Orange smoked Scottie Reynolds and the rest of those dorks 95-77 which followed up their road win earlier in the week over Providence. To go out and annihilate another top ten team like the Wildcats is impressive, and I'm starting to think the Orange are the team to beat in March. I was pretty clearly wrong about Wes Johnson, who is an absolute stud, and I think Andy Rautins used my criticism of him from last year as a motivational tool because he's somehow become a top flight point guard and he's not even a point guard. I was talking to a friend who is a Syracuse alum, and he said that this isn't the Cuse's most talented team, but it is their best. He said usually they have a focal point guy who a lot of times undermines the whole team concept - it worked with Carmelo, didn't with Donte Greene - but this year it's just seven guys who have bought in to the team concept. Really good team. Right now, they're probably my #1.
3. New Mexico. If you kind of thought New Mexico wasn't anything special and just kept rising in the polls because they were basically just chillin' in the Mountain West, you aren't alone. If you still think that, you're an idiot. The Lobos put the word out that they are the real deal, going into Provo and beat BYU 83-81, the Cougars first home loss this year and one of only a handful the last few years. The win clinches at least a tie for the MWC crown for the Lobos, and brings New Mexico to 6-0 this year against ranked teams. That's right, 6-0. They've beaten BYU twice, UNLV, Cal, Texas Tech, and Texas A&M, and also have wins over decent teams like Dayton, Louisiana Tech, and New Mexico State. Three of this team's top four players are of the 6-5 to 6-8 athletic wing types, and the other dude gives them the strong and experience point play you need in March. This team is a threat.
4. Marquette. Now this is how a bubble team is supposed to respond to a challenge in late March. Marquette was probably right in the middle of the bubble, but with two wins this week, both on the road, both in overtime, and one over fellow bubble team Seton Hall, they're probably in for sure. First, the Eagles beat St. John's in their place 63-61 on a Jimmy Butler jumper as time expired in overtime, and then they went to Seton Hall and knocked the Pirates out of NCAA contention 84-83. I didn't expect much out of Marquette this year, not after losing three starting guards who were basically the whole team, but Lazar Hayward has gotten even better and Butler and Darius Johnson-Odom are very good players. And Marquette is probably better than the 19-9 record would indicate. Other than an inexplicable loss to DePaul and an early season loss to NC State every loss on the record has been by single-digits to an NCAA-caliber team.
5. Tay Waller. I know you don't know who this is, but that's why I'm here, to be nerdy enough about college hoops to know who people like Tay Waller are. And also he's on my fantasy team, which has now made the finals. Anyway, Waller had a big week but you won't hear about because he plays for crappy Auburn. The 6-2 senior guard for the Tigers was a top 10 JuCo player back in 2008 coming out of NW Florida Community College, and after being pretty solid for his year and three-quarters (way better than Bostick) he's really hit his stride, scoring more than 26 in each of Auburn's last three games, scoring 29 against Ole Miss in a loss and then 26 to lead the Tigers to a win over LSU this week. He's not on any NBA radars or anything, but he'll probably end up making a nice living overseas, and he deserves to be recognized even if he plays for the shitbox that is the Auburn Tigers. Plus, he probably gets to roll around with broads like these all the time.
WHO SUCKED
1. Wake Forest. Probably the worst week any team has had in the history of basketball. No joke. The Demon Deacons started off the week by losing at ACC bottom-feeder North Carolina State, and then followed that up by getting embarrassed at home by the embarrassing Carolina Tar Heels. To put this in Big Ten terms, that would be like losing at Indiana and then losing at home to Michigan. [NOTE: I just realized what I did there. hahahahahahahahahaha kill me.] And I had the misfortune to watch a good chunk of that Carolina game, and holy crap is Wake awful. I've never seen a team play so lazily and selfishly all at the same time. It was like watching five Westbrooks. I refuse to believe this team is 8-6 in the ACC, and was 8-3 at one point. This is a first-round upset waiting to happen, I don't care if they draw Bethune-Cookman in round one.
2. John Wall. Has the phenom hit the proverbial wall? His raw numbers are ok - 12 pts, 5 rebounds, 4 assists in a 20-point win over South Carolina and 19-5-6 in the loss to Tennessee, but if you look deeper he had a pretty sub-par week. He shot just 10-31 overall and was 0-7 from three-point range, and he turned the ball over 11 times in the two games - yes, that's more turnovers than field goals made this week. And although he has always been a bit of a turnover machine (averaging 4.0 per game) his shooting is what would really concern me - he hasn't shot better than 50% in a game since February 2nd. Maybe it's just a simple fluctuation of his numbers, but if I was a Kentucky fan I'd be pretty concerned that he seems to be struggling a bit at this time of the year. In any case, there's no way a team this young (three of the top four players are freshmen) and this volatile (both Cousins and Wall are crazy) with that coach is going to the final four. You go ahead and pick them there, but they're going to get knocked off by some seven seed. Just watch.
3. Virginia Tech. When your hopes for an at-large bid are best described as "little margin for error and only in decent shape because of an impressive ACC record" one thing you really shouldn't do is go out the next week and drop two ACC games - one at home (to Maryland) and one to a bottom-tier team (Boston College). The Hokies are still 21-7 overall and 8-6 in conference play, but there's not a whole lot to be impressed with. They have a win over Clemson, one over Wake, and a non-conference win over Seton Hall, and that's it. Everything else is against a bottom tier team. I don't know what to think about their chances, they're a super confusing team. You could make a pretty good argument spanning anywhere from "they should be easily in" to "they have no chance." Take your pick.
4. The Atlantic 10. Going into this week there were seven teams in the A-10 that had a shot at getting an at-large bid to the tournament, but things are not breaking the right way and it's starting to look more and more likely that the conference will end up with three teams going (Temple, Xavier, and Richmond are all basically locks). Dayton is probably fourth on the list, but at 8-6 in the conference might not have enough juice, and they had a huge chance to knock of Temple this week and whiffed. Another team that had a chance at a big upset and missed out was St. Louis, who has a nice 10-4 conference record but is lacking big wins, which makes their loss to Xavier this week even more damaging. Charlotte and Rhode Island both looked to have an inside track at a bid earlier this year, but both have faded coming down the stretch and both knocked themselves out of bid contention with losses they couldn't have this weekend - Charlotte lost to George Washington, Rhode Island to St. Bonaventure. So the A-10 will likely have just three teams dancing, maybe four if Dayton gets it together, which isn't bad, but isn't as lofty as it could have been. Also, Richmond and Temple are going down quickly, Xavier is the only team here that can make a run. Mark it down.
5. Purdue. Ruh roh. You kind of had to wonder just how the Boilers would respond with Robbie Hummel out. They still have E'Twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson which still gives them one of the better 1-2 punches in the country, but Hummel was kind of the glue guy, along with being a top scorer. They certainly didn't have any time to ease into, welcoming Michigan State to Keady Court right off the bat, and the results weren't pretty. The only managed 44 points, shot just 30%, and were out-rebounded 44-16 as the Spartans won 53-44. Yes by the way, those numbers are correct they were out-rebounded 44-16. I think they'll end up being a lot better without Hummel than they showed on Sunday, and they have games against Penn State and Indiana this coming week to work on some things, but this has to be a pretty big concern for Boiler Nation.
I guess there was also some kind of big whoopity-doo hockey game between the Americans and the Commies or something, but I didn't really pay attention. I heard the commies won, so I expect Canada to start taking over Red Dawn style anytime now. WOLVERINES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (but not on Tuesday)
BUBBLE GAMES OF NOTE:
Fresno State @ Utah State. I've written about them before, but the beat rolls on. USU needs to win and keep winning. Even at 23-6 they can't really afford a loss because, outside of a win over BYU, there's not much there in the non-conference profile. They would probably be ok if they lost in the WAC final to either New Mexico State or Louisiana Tech, but any loss short of that will keep likely knock them out of at-large consideration
If you just compare the Gophers and Illinois quick, they have basically the same record, although Illinois is two games better in conference play. The Gophers have the better RPI (70 to 74) and better Strength of Schedule (37 to 61). Both teams have two wins over top 25 RPI teams, while Illinois has a total of four over top 50 teams compared to just three for the Gophers and they have nearly identical records against the top 100. The Gophers have three bad losses (vs. teams over 100 in the RPI) while Illinois has two. The Gophers are 4-8 in road/neutral games, while Illinois is 6-8. The best win by either of the two teams goes to the Gophers with their win over Butler, and both team's have beaten Wisconsin.
I know the bids supposedly don't compare teams within the conference like this and look at the team's as an overall whole, but it's useful to know where the Gophers stand in comparison to the Illini. It also serves as a depressing reminder that if you reverse almost any loss on the Gopher schedule, they are ahead of Illinois, but as it stands right now they are probably slightly behind. In any case, it's time to win. There's no room for error.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Notre Dame. Bill Simmons' Ewing Theory in full effect? Seriously, has anybody has as impressive a week all year as Notre Dame had this week? They beat both Pitt and Georgetown, both by double-digits, and have gone from "probably out" to "probably in" all in a four day span - and they've done it without Luke Harangody. Since he's been out it's just been a bunch of role-players just used to deferring to him, but maybe we're finding out they aren't role players (even if Tory Jackson has the decision-making skills of a rock). Ben Hansbrough has stepped up his scoring since Harangody went out, averaging 15 per game (compared to 12), but the guy who has really helped out is junior forward Carleton Scott, who is averaging 9.3 points and 6.3 rebounds per game since the injury compared to 3.5 of each beforehand. Basically the Irish have played really well since Luke went down, and now find themselves in good shape for an NCAA bid. Which means he'll come back next week, they'll lose two, bow out early in the Big East tournament, and find themselves in the NIT again.
2. Syracuse. Wow. And also, wow. What an impressive victory over Villanova, the alleged #8 team in the land. The Orange smoked Scottie Reynolds and the rest of those dorks 95-77 which followed up their road win earlier in the week over Providence. To go out and annihilate another top ten team like the Wildcats is impressive, and I'm starting to think the Orange are the team to beat in March. I was pretty clearly wrong about Wes Johnson, who is an absolute stud, and I think Andy Rautins used my criticism of him from last year as a motivational tool because he's somehow become a top flight point guard and he's not even a point guard. I was talking to a friend who is a Syracuse alum, and he said that this isn't the Cuse's most talented team, but it is their best. He said usually they have a focal point guy who a lot of times undermines the whole team concept - it worked with Carmelo, didn't with Donte Greene - but this year it's just seven guys who have bought in to the team concept. Really good team. Right now, they're probably my #1.
3. New Mexico. If you kind of thought New Mexico wasn't anything special and just kept rising in the polls because they were basically just chillin' in the Mountain West, you aren't alone. If you still think that, you're an idiot. The Lobos put the word out that they are the real deal, going into Provo and beat BYU 83-81, the Cougars first home loss this year and one of only a handful the last few years. The win clinches at least a tie for the MWC crown for the Lobos, and brings New Mexico to 6-0 this year against ranked teams. That's right, 6-0. They've beaten BYU twice, UNLV, Cal, Texas Tech, and Texas A&M, and also have wins over decent teams like Dayton, Louisiana Tech, and New Mexico State. Three of this team's top four players are of the 6-5 to 6-8 athletic wing types, and the other dude gives them the strong and experience point play you need in March. This team is a threat.
4. Marquette. Now this is how a bubble team is supposed to respond to a challenge in late March. Marquette was probably right in the middle of the bubble, but with two wins this week, both on the road, both in overtime, and one over fellow bubble team Seton Hall, they're probably in for sure. First, the Eagles beat St. John's in their place 63-61 on a Jimmy Butler jumper as time expired in overtime, and then they went to Seton Hall and knocked the Pirates out of NCAA contention 84-83. I didn't expect much out of Marquette this year, not after losing three starting guards who were basically the whole team, but Lazar Hayward has gotten even better and Butler and Darius Johnson-Odom are very good players. And Marquette is probably better than the 19-9 record would indicate. Other than an inexplicable loss to DePaul and an early season loss to NC State every loss on the record has been by single-digits to an NCAA-caliber team.
5. Tay Waller. I know you don't know who this is, but that's why I'm here, to be nerdy enough about college hoops to know who people like Tay Waller are. And also he's on my fantasy team, which has now made the finals. Anyway, Waller had a big week but you won't hear about because he plays for crappy Auburn. The 6-2 senior guard for the Tigers was a top 10 JuCo player back in 2008 coming out of NW Florida Community College, and after being pretty solid for his year and three-quarters (way better than Bostick) he's really hit his stride, scoring more than 26 in each of Auburn's last three games, scoring 29 against Ole Miss in a loss and then 26 to lead the Tigers to a win over LSU this week. He's not on any NBA radars or anything, but he'll probably end up making a nice living overseas, and he deserves to be recognized even if he plays for the shitbox that is the Auburn Tigers. Plus, he probably gets to roll around with broads like these all the time.
WHO SUCKED
1. Wake Forest. Probably the worst week any team has had in the history of basketball. No joke. The Demon Deacons started off the week by losing at ACC bottom-feeder North Carolina State, and then followed that up by getting embarrassed at home by the embarrassing Carolina Tar Heels. To put this in Big Ten terms, that would be like losing at Indiana and then losing at home to Michigan. [NOTE: I just realized what I did there. hahahahahahahahahaha kill me.] And I had the misfortune to watch a good chunk of that Carolina game, and holy crap is Wake awful. I've never seen a team play so lazily and selfishly all at the same time. It was like watching five Westbrooks. I refuse to believe this team is 8-6 in the ACC, and was 8-3 at one point. This is a first-round upset waiting to happen, I don't care if they draw Bethune-Cookman in round one.
2. John Wall. Has the phenom hit the proverbial wall? His raw numbers are ok - 12 pts, 5 rebounds, 4 assists in a 20-point win over South Carolina and 19-5-6 in the loss to Tennessee, but if you look deeper he had a pretty sub-par week. He shot just 10-31 overall and was 0-7 from three-point range, and he turned the ball over 11 times in the two games - yes, that's more turnovers than field goals made this week. And although he has always been a bit of a turnover machine (averaging 4.0 per game) his shooting is what would really concern me - he hasn't shot better than 50% in a game since February 2nd. Maybe it's just a simple fluctuation of his numbers, but if I was a Kentucky fan I'd be pretty concerned that he seems to be struggling a bit at this time of the year. In any case, there's no way a team this young (three of the top four players are freshmen) and this volatile (both Cousins and Wall are crazy) with that coach is going to the final four. You go ahead and pick them there, but they're going to get knocked off by some seven seed. Just watch.
3. Virginia Tech. When your hopes for an at-large bid are best described as "little margin for error and only in decent shape because of an impressive ACC record" one thing you really shouldn't do is go out the next week and drop two ACC games - one at home (to Maryland) and one to a bottom-tier team (Boston College). The Hokies are still 21-7 overall and 8-6 in conference play, but there's not a whole lot to be impressed with. They have a win over Clemson, one over Wake, and a non-conference win over Seton Hall, and that's it. Everything else is against a bottom tier team. I don't know what to think about their chances, they're a super confusing team. You could make a pretty good argument spanning anywhere from "they should be easily in" to "they have no chance." Take your pick.
4. The Atlantic 10. Going into this week there were seven teams in the A-10 that had a shot at getting an at-large bid to the tournament, but things are not breaking the right way and it's starting to look more and more likely that the conference will end up with three teams going (Temple, Xavier, and Richmond are all basically locks). Dayton is probably fourth on the list, but at 8-6 in the conference might not have enough juice, and they had a huge chance to knock of Temple this week and whiffed. Another team that had a chance at a big upset and missed out was St. Louis, who has a nice 10-4 conference record but is lacking big wins, which makes their loss to Xavier this week even more damaging. Charlotte and Rhode Island both looked to have an inside track at a bid earlier this year, but both have faded coming down the stretch and both knocked themselves out of bid contention with losses they couldn't have this weekend - Charlotte lost to George Washington, Rhode Island to St. Bonaventure. So the A-10 will likely have just three teams dancing, maybe four if Dayton gets it together, which isn't bad, but isn't as lofty as it could have been. Also, Richmond and Temple are going down quickly, Xavier is the only team here that can make a run. Mark it down.
5. Purdue. Ruh roh. You kind of had to wonder just how the Boilers would respond with Robbie Hummel out. They still have E'Twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson which still gives them one of the better 1-2 punches in the country, but Hummel was kind of the glue guy, along with being a top scorer. They certainly didn't have any time to ease into, welcoming Michigan State to Keady Court right off the bat, and the results weren't pretty. The only managed 44 points, shot just 30%, and were out-rebounded 44-16 as the Spartans won 53-44. Yes by the way, those numbers are correct they were out-rebounded 44-16. I think they'll end up being a lot better without Hummel than they showed on Sunday, and they have games against Penn State and Indiana this coming week to work on some things, but this has to be a pretty big concern for Boiler Nation.
I guess there was also some kind of big whoopity-doo hockey game between the Americans and the Commies or something, but I didn't really pay attention. I heard the commies won, so I expect Canada to start taking over Red Dawn style anytime now. WOLVERINES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (but not on Tuesday)
BUBBLE GAMES OF NOTE:
Fresno State @ Utah State. I've written about them before, but the beat rolls on. USU needs to win and keep winning. Even at 23-6 they can't really afford a loss because, outside of a win over BYU, there's not much there in the non-conference profile. They would probably be ok if they lost in the WAC final to either New Mexico State or Louisiana Tech, but any loss short of that will keep likely knock them out of at-large consideration
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