Wednesday Tournament Preview - Here Come the Big Dogs

Four more conference tournaments wrapped up last night with North Dakota State taking the Summit (called it!), Robert Morris the NEC (called it!), Valpo the Horizon, and Gonzaga the West Coast (called it!).  Gonzaga is obviously good and will be a 1 or 2 seed depending on how some other tournaments shake out, but I don't really see any way any of the other three win a first round game.  Maybe Valpo if they get a team that doesn't shoot well.  North Carolina would be fun.

Anyway, there are one million tournaments kicking off today so no need for preamble.  God knows there'll be enough words for you to read.

ATLANTIC 10:
When did the A-10 become all competitive and deep and fun?  This conference has five 20+ game winners already, three more teams with at 17 wins, and eight of fourteen teams finished with a winning record in conference play.  They also have four Top 50 teams in kenpom's rankings, and two more in the top 75 with a few more just outside the Top 100.  This tournament is going to be wild.

FAVORITE:  Davidson.  The Wildcats stormed to the #1 seed by winning their final 9 games with four of those wins coming over fellow contenders.  Davidson has one of the most fun offenses in the country, playing fast but taking care of the ball, whipping it around the perimeter and draining threes.  The register a ton of assists (61% of baskets, ranks 28th), get forty percent of their points from three (ranks 5th), and score 1.9 points per possession (6th in country).  All this while playing fast.  Super, super fun team.

SLEEPER:  VCU.  There's no mistaking it - when Briante Weber went down with a knee injury VCU's season derailed.  They lost that game and then went 5-5 the rest of the way without any kind of good win.  However this is a really talented team with an extremely good coach.  Weber was a huge key on both sides of the ball for the Rams, obviously, but would it really surprise you to see Shaka Smart figure something out and go on a run?

THE PICK:  Dayton.  I can't shake the memory of that run Dayton went on in the NCAAs last year.  Yes, each year is different so this isn't the exact same team, but Jordan Sibert and Dyshawn Pierre are both back and looking at their season long results (23-7) they only have one bad loss.  Dayton also pretty much shuts down the 3-point line so if it comes down to a Davidson vs. Dayton match-up the Flyers should be able to hang.  Though Davidson did beat them by 17 earlier while hitting 12-23 threes.  Well, too late to change the pick now.


BIG EAST:
Everyone loves to complain about how the old Big East is no more, and with good reason because those old tournaments were awesome (stupid football).  But the new Big East is pretty good.  Creighton was a great story last year, and this year Villanova would be getting all kind of attention if it wasn't for Kentucky.  The Wildcats (Nova version) have won 12 in row, are 29-2 overall, have played one bad game all year, and have six guys who average between nine and fourteen points per game.  Georgetown, Butler, Xavier, Providence, and St. John's are all really good too.  You can take away the football schools, but the Big East is still a hell of a basketball conference.

FAVORITE:  Villanova.  I guess I kind of wrote them up above, but this is a really good team.  In that 12 game winning streak to close the season they beat Georgetown, Butler, and St. John's while sweeping Creighton and Providence.  That's not beating up on the dregs of the conference, that's just whooping up everybody.

SLEEPER:  Providence.  This team should be better than it has been, and it's been pretty good (21-10, 11-7).  LaDontae Henton is a 20 point per game scorer, and Kris Dunn has triple double potential every time out (15.5 points, 5.6 rebs, 7.4 assists per game).  For whatever reason they just lose to every really good team they play.  Maybe that's who they are and they're actually just a slightly above average team.  Maybe they just need something to spark.

THE PICK:  Villanova.  Not really sure what else to write here.  These guys are really good.  They shoot the ball well from everywhere, they take care of the basketball, they get to the free throw line a lot, and they're one of the top assist teams in the country.  They also play very good defense, create turnovers, don't foul, and have size and experience.  The only real weakness is they aren't a great rebounding team and maybe that bites them in the NCAA Tournament at some point, and Butler could be a bit of a problem but they won't face them until the championship, if they get there.  This team's really good.


BIG TEN:
Hey, you've probably heard of these guys.  It's kind of a weird year in the Big Ten, because I only really see one Final Four contender.  Plenty of Sweet 16 type teams, but other than the stupid Badgers I don't see anyone else advancing past early in the second week at best.  Maryland doesn't seem good enough to be a 3 seed from what I've seen, Michigan State certainly has the talent and the Izzo to possibly do that thing Tom Izzo always does, and De'Angelo Russell is good enough to carry the team John Wallace style, but in general I think the Sweet 16 is the ceiling for most of these teams.

FAVORITE:  Wisconsin.  Like I said, the Badgers are pretty prohibitive favorite here.  The won the conference by two games, and by 4+ over everyone except Maryland.  This year's version of the Badgers is basically the same as always - play slow, take care of the ball, shoot well and immediately get back on defense to limit transition opportunities, play good defense without taking any chances, allow few offensive rebounds and don't foul (comes with no chances, also no turnovers).  This year's version is the most perfect version Bo Ryan has put together, that offensive is the #1 in the country in points per possession, and they have a legitimate star in Frank Kaminsky.  As an added wrinkle they actually have some athletic ability with both Sam Dekker and Nigel Hayes, and Bronson Koenig has stepped in for Traveon Jackson with no issue - and Jackson might be back.  Yuck.

SLEEPER:  Minnesota.  Homer alert, yes I know, but hear me out.  The Gophers possess a couple of the main characteristics I've outlined in all these previews for a potential sleeper:  they have a trait different from most of the rest of the conference (they're the fastest team in the B10), and they have a skill that, if everything breaks right, can win a game all on it's own in their ability to force turnovers (they rank 8th).  They've also been right there in almost every game they've lost - the only games that were basically over prior to the endgame were @Maryland, @Indiana, and the two Wisconsin games.  I know watching this team all year has you rolling your eyes and shaking your head and I'm with you, but they profile as a sleeper and they wouldn't have to face Wisconsin until a potential final.  Stranger things have happened.  Probably.

THE PICK:  Michigan State.  Though Wisconsin is the best team, they also seem to usually take the Big Ten Tournament off having one just once since 2008, and the Spartans seem the best bet to step in and win.  The Spartans have that incredible trio of Dawson, Trice, and Valentine and Izzo seems to have the team peaking at the end of the year, as per usual.  Sparty closed out 8-3, and even though one of those losses was against the Gophers, I'll give them a pass.


BIG 12:
Everyone says this is the best conference this year, kenpom has them well clear of everyone else, and maybe they're right.  Kansas, Oklahoma, Baylor, and Iowa State all have a chance at the Final Four, and I guess you can't forget about West Virginia.  You can, however, forget about Oklahoma State if you want.  They've completely faded, losing five of their last six.  ESPN still has them in as an 11 seed, but unless something changes they have no chance at upsetting anyone.

FAVORITE:  Kansas.  The Jayhawks are the most confusing team to me this year.  At times, I've thought I'd probably pick them to make the Final Four.  At other times, they look like a first round upset candidate.  At their best they're a hyper athletic bunch with an inside presence, good perimeter shooting, and a bunch of guys who can defend all over the court.  At others, they look lost, struggle in the half court offense, and get crushed on the boards.  This is why you have a team who can go 13-5 in the best conference in basketball who also got absolutely crushed by Temple.  I'm clueless.

SLEEPER:  West Virginia.  When I think of teams jumping up and doing unexpected things I usually figure they're a team with a star who can carry the team (Juwan Staten?), a team who does one thing so exceptionally well they can swing a game just on that alone (WVU #1 in forcing turnovers in the country), and a team who plays a pace, either slow or fast, that can make other teams uncomfortable (26th fastest team).  WVU checks those boxes.  Their actual shooting and defense are pretty suspect so It'd probably have to be pretty fluky, but they could do it.

THE PICK:  Oklahoma.  Some teams just seem built for a tournament type run, call it the eye test or what have you, but for me both Oklahoma and Iowa State seem like those kind of teams to me.  They're both very athletic, fast teams who play a hectic pace, while Iowa State excels on offense and Oklahoma on defense.  I'm giving the nod to the Sooners because they're a better offensive team than Iowa State is defensive, and Oklahoma's star, Buddy Hield, seems to be trending up while Iowa State's, Georges Niang, is trending down.


CONFERENCE USA:
This is another conference that got rocked by realignment, losing Louisville, Memphis, Cincinnati, and Marquette (among others) over the last ten years - basically every one of their flagship programs.  Louisiana Tech has been on the fringe of an at large bid the last couple of years and Old Dominion is near the bubble this year, but I don't think C-USA has been a multi-bid conference in a while.  They're still a young conference, so maybe they'll grow into the MVC someday, but they're closer to a low major than a mid major right now.

FAVORITE:  Louisiana Tech.  This is the third straight year the Bulldogs have won a regular season title - the last two in C-USA and the prior season in the WAC.  Yet they haven't been to the NCAA Tournament since 1991 because they've bombed out in the conference tournament every year.  Coach Michael White (sounds made up) has established his system in Louisiana, and every year the Bulldogs play fast, play good defense, and create a ton of turnovers while limiting their own.  It's worked in the regular season, but like Billy Beane so far his shit doesn't work in the playoffs.  Hopefully this is finally the year.

SLEEPER:  Western Kentucky.  They've won the conference tournament two of the last three years, and won five times in the 2000s in the Sun Belt so they know what they're doing at the end of the year.  WKU seems to jump up and become an NCAA Tournament sleeper every few years, led by a star like Courtney Lee, Orlando Mendez-Valdez, or A.J. Slaughter.  They certainly have another candidate this year in senior guard T.J. Price, who led the conference in scoring at 17.6 points per game while hitting 42% of his threes.  He could certainly carry this team, and he's got three other double digit scorers to help out.  Of course, it's hard to believe a team that lost to the Gophers could go on to have any success.

THE PICK:  UTEP.  I liked UTEP to start the year, and although they haven't done anything to make me say hey wow look at UTEP, they haven't bombed out either.  13-5 in conference play with the #2 offense and #3 defense in CUSA, they're a definite contender, and an early nonconference win over Xavier is better than anything else anyone in the conference can point to.  The Miners did get swept by La Tech, but they won't have to face them unless they both make the final, and Tech is flawed enough they might not make it.  UTEP can handle anyone else.


MOUNTAIN WEST:
Well it was a run Mountain West Conference.  After ranking as a Top 10 Conference by kenpom from 2002-2014, the Mountain West dropped to 12th this year.  That might not seem like a big deal, but another way to look at it is after easily putting multiple teams in the tournament year after year, the MWC might be a one bid league this year.

FAVORITE:  San Diego State.  The only MWC team guaranteed of a bid this year, the Aztecs have a little bit of a dynasty going on here under Steve Fisher with four regular season titles in the last five seasons, though they've only won one conference tournament in that time.  This year will also mark their sixth straight NCAA Tournament appearance, with the Aztecs advancing past the first round three times, including a Sweet 16 appearance last season.  It's the same team as every other year, although this year might be Fisher's most extreme - it's his best offense and his worst defense in this run of success.  Eventually you gotta score.  Unlike you in high school.

SLEEPER:  Wyoming.  Everything started out great for the Cowboys.  They came out of the gate at 15-2, including a 4-0 conference start which included wins over Colorado, Colorado State, and Boise State.  Then an understandable loss to San Diego State, and two overtime wins and they were 17-3 and 6-1 and dreams of an NCAA bid, their first since 2002, appeared.  And then the bottom fell.  The Cowboys won just 5 the rest of the way against six losses and the at large dream disappeared.  They did lose leading scorer and rebounder Larry Nance Jr. for four games to injury but he's back now, and although Wyoming has gone just 1-3 since his return if they can refind that early season form they could make a run.

THE PICK:  Boise State.  Similar to Wyoming, Boise State started out well at 10-2 with losses to just Wisconsin and NC State.  Similar to Wyoming, they dealt with an injury to last season's leading scorer Anthony Drmic, only he was out for the season.  They had a mid-season hiccup, a four game losing streak that killed any at large chances, but since then they've been on fire, going 14-1 to close out the season.  The Broncos' second leading scorer last year, Derrick Marks, has completely put this team on his back, averaging over 20 points per game over this stretch, hitting 30 points three times.  Oh yeah, they also swept SDSU.  So there's that.


PAC 12:
Talk about a top heavy league.  Arizona and Utah are top 8 teams per kenpom, then next up is Stanford at #44 (though they seem to be tanking with a 2-5 close to the season).  The Wildcats and Utes are both Top 25 in the country in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and the only other team to reach Top 25 in either is Oregon State on defense.  Unfortunately, in my opinion, both those teams are super vulnerable.  Could be another bad year for the Pac 12.  Or Arizona could win the title.  What am I, Nostradamus?

FAVORITE:  Arizona.  So Arizona is 28-3 with a Top 11 mark in both O and D efficiency, so what's my problem?  I just haven't been impressed.  Nobody on the team seems to be a reliable bet to show up all the time.  Just look at their losses this year:  UNLV, Oregon State, and Arizona State.  Now way around it, those are all three bad losses.  Their top end play is as good as it gets with sweeps of Utah, Stanford, and Oregon with non-conference wins over Gonzaga and San Diego State, but how to explain those losses?

SLEEPER:  Oregon.  Tough to find a sleeper in such a top heavy conference with so many horrible teams at the bottom, but the Ducks stand out.  The closed the season 11-2 and mixed a win over Utah in there.  They had a shaky start to the season but looking back other than a disastrous trip out to Washington where they got swept their worst loss is to Michigan, so they've mainly taken care of business against bad teams.  Joseph Young is the type who can carry a team to a conference title on his own, and if he can't he'll certainly shoot enough to try.

THE PICK:  Arizona.  I can also completely see them flaming out in their first game, but who else am I going to pick?  I should probably trust Utah more than I do looking at their profile and advanced stats, but they just seem to be missing something.  Stanford is terrible now, and Oregon just has too many flaws.  UCLA is the only other team under consideration, but they've mostly spent the year beating bad and average teams and losing to good ones.  Then again, I suppose they need these games more than anyone else so maybe they'll win.  I don't know.


SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE:
There was a time, and I think it was true, where John Calipari was a pretty terrible coach.  He won because he could recruit, but to call him a great coach was a pretty big stretch.  When he won his first national title with that Kentucky team I thought "Man he's lucky.  All the best talent and they're all unselfish too.  He's lucky Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist don't care about getting the ball."  Now, however, he's done it again with an even more talented group.  It's clear he's got a skill here.  You can boil down a coach to three basic pieces:  recruiting, roster management (including player development), and game planning.  Calipari has aced two of the three, and is probably average at the third.  Hard to argue he shouldn't be called a great coach at this point.

FAVORITE:  Kentucky.  Duh.  Besides the undefeated record, Kentucky finished #1 in both offensive and defensive efficiency in SEC play, and #1 and #8 in DE and OE in the entire country for the season.  Kenpom's top 5 players in the conference is made up of 4 Kentucky guys.  Yeah, they got pushed to OT by inferior foes in Ole Miss and Texas A&M, but that was back in early January.  Since then they've only had five of sixteen games end with a margin in single digits.  They're the most talented team in the country and they're peaking.  Great.

SLEEPER:  Florida.  Simply because it's hard for me to believe a Billy Donovan led Gator team could be this bad.  I mean their final record was 15-16, which means they aren't even eligible for the NIT.  Bizarre.  They can still play defense, just .907 points per possession, which ranks 9th in the country this year, and most of their losses have been extremely close so they're not too far from turning it around - only Kentucky has beaten them by double figures since mid-January.  A lot of bad luck for this team, maybe things tip here.

THE PICK:  Kentucky.  Duh.  Again.  It's going to take some extraordinary circumstances for Kentucky to lose this year.  The most interesting game for them will be in round 2, where they will probably face the best team they've played since Arkansas over a month ago.  The eight or nine seed will be someone along the lines of North Carolina State or Ohio State, and they'd be a second or third place team in the SEC.  I'm interested to see Kentucky against some top competition again, but I can't fathom not picking them to not only win the SEC Tournament, but the NCAA Tournament as well.


SOUTHLAND:
The Southland is not dissimilar to the Ohio Valley - there's a great team here, one that dominated the conference, in this case going 17-1.  A team that rates well at kenpom at #43 (Murray State is #77), and a team that has no chance at an at-large bid because of the weak conference competition and a bad non-conference schedule (though they do have a win over Memphis and an overtime loss to Northern Iowa).  Yes, Stephen F. Austin is essentially Murray State all over again - they can win a game or two in the NCAA Tournament, but they have no margin for error to get there.

FAVORITE:  Stephen F Austin.  The Lumberjacks are back again, once again dominating the Southland by playing pressing like crazy (#4 in creating turnovers this year), and passing (#4 in assist percentage) and shooting the ball well (#10 in eFG).  Last year they finished the regular season 29-2 and 18-0 in conference, won the conference tournament, and went on to beat VCU in an overtime thriller in round 1.  Hopefully they can get through again, because this could legitimately be a Sweet 16 team.  No lie.

SLEEPER:  Northwestern State.  Even though SFA swept Northwestern State this season, the Demons game looks like it could give the Lumberjacks fits.  They're the fastest team in the conference so SFA's pace won't throw them (though the majority of the conference is pretty fast anyway), they don't turn the ball over at all, so that could cut Austin's advantage down, and they're a super efficient scoring team so they could score enough points to keep up with the Lumberjacks.  Now, their defense is horrible so they'll have to score a ton to keep up with what SFA will put up, but still I'd rather see Northwestern State knocked off before they get a shot at Austin in the semifinals.

THE PICK:  Stephen F Austin.  We've already lost two potential giant killers in Iona and Murray State, please don't take our Lumberjacks away from us as well.  With two of their big scorers back from last year's team we need these guys back in the tournament - they're fun as hell.


SWAC:
Pretty much always the bottom ranked conference at kenpom year after year and usually with some teams not eligible for the post season because of ARP issues, this year the SWAC is the bottom ranked conference at kenpom and is dealing with some teams not being eligible for the postseason due to ARP issues.  There are 10 teams in this mess of a conference, and four of them - Southern, Arkansas Pine Bluff, Mississippi Valley State, and Grambling - are ineligible for post season play.  They all get to participate in the SWAC Tournament, though Southern, the second place team in the league, is the only one with much of a chance to win.  And then send the loser of the championship to the NCAAs.  Unless they're ineligible too.  Then I don't know what happens.  Just disband the SWAC already.

FAVORITE:  Texas Southern.  Last season the Tigers rode LaSalle and WVU  transfer Aaric Murray and  a few other transfers to a SWAC Ttile and a berth in the First Four (lost to Cal Poly).  This year, the returning Madarious Gibbs is joined by a handful of transfers, and despite a whole lot of roster turnover they're in position to make it back to the First Four.  Don't forget, Texas Southern hasn't just beaten up on their conference foes - they have wins this year over Michigan State and Kansas State.  I'm not sure how though.  They're terrible at everything.

SLEEPER:  Alabama State.  The Hornets were #2 in both offensive and defensive efficiency in SWAC play this year, while Texas Southern was #1 in offensive but #5 in defensive.  They did get swept by Texas Southern this year, but they pretty much handled everyone else.

THE PICK:  Texas Southern.  Their stat sheet looks horrible, but they have those wins over Michigan State and Kansas State and they did win the regular season crown.  Anything can happen with teams that are this bad, so sticking with the chalk makes sense.  Or just throw a dart, but make sure it doesn't hit an ineligible team.



Whew.  That was a lot.  I'm tired.

NCAA Basketball Preview - The Mountain West

With BYU heading for the weirder pastures of the West Coast Conference, Utah shipping out to the Pac-12, and TCU heading to the Big 12 via the Big East, the Mountain West is looking less and less recognizable.  BYU and Utah are both gone already (meaning the Mountain West is now Utah-less), with TCU heading out next year.  Boise State is already in place, and starting next season Fresno State, Hawaii (football only), and Nevada will jump on board to bring the MWC to 10 (at least for basketball, assuming Boise stays here for basketball and doesn't do something weird after the football team gets invited into the Big East).  It's all very confusing, but it boils down to trading TCU, Utah, and BYU for Boise, Hawaii (football only), Fresno, and Nevada.  Not exactly a great trade for the MWC, and this conference is already on the way down.  More than 2 bids would be fairly miraculous.

1.  NEW MEXICO LOBOS.  This team is going to be a monster.  Last year they won 22 games and just missed out on an NCAA bid, and this year they return basically their whole team including basically automatic MWC Player of the Year as long as he doesn't go crazy or get suspended or anything in Drew Gordon.  The only player they're missing off last year's squad is Dairese Gary, which is actually a big deal because he was there point guard and was all-conference last season, but they have a great nucleus back and plenty of options to take over the point, including Demetrius Walker, a combo guard who transferred from USC and was the main subject of the recent book about AAU ball.  Really though, assuming they get competent point guard play this should be a sweet 16 team.

2. UNLV RUNNIN' REBELS.  The Rebels lose Tre'Von Willis and Derrick Jasper and they will be missed, Willis especially, but UNLV has plenty coming back and anything less than an NCAA bid will be a big-time failure for first year coach Dave Rice.  Combo guard Oscar Bellfield is a potential stud, especially since he'll be playing more SG with Willis out plus the emergence of Anthony Marshall, and Chace Stanback is probably the best player in the conference outside of Drew Gordon and can do it all.  The teams biggest issue, and the real problem for them all year, will be in the frontcourt.  They were weak there last year as well and made due, but five of their six leading rebounders last year were perimeter players.  I'm predicting first round NCAA exit here.

NOTE:  This is an Aztec tramp stamp

3.  SAN DIEGO STATE AZTECS.  Last year the stars aligned for the Aztecs with several key players hitting their peak at the same time and it resulted in a very fun and likeable team and an appearance in the Sweet 16.  Now four starters are gone, including stud Kawhi Leonard who left early, but things aren't completely barren in San Diego - although it would be a rather large shocker if they made the NCAA Tournament again.  In typical MWC fashion, the main additions to the team come via transfer - Garrett Green from LSU, Deshawn Stephens from a JUCO, and Xavier Thames from Washington State.  None are instant superstars (like Gordon was for New Mexico) but all should be solid with potential.  Add that to the talent they have coming back, much of it from a reserve role of course, and they should be decent.  Remember this name:  LaBradford Franklin. 

4.  COLORADO STATE RAMS.   You know how when the Gophers were looking for a coach everybody was all like "Tim Miles blah blah blah" and mostly it was just because NDSU beat Monson's Gophers?  Well maybe he's pretty decent, because the Rams have gone from 0-16 in conference play a few years ago, to a CBI berth two seasons ago, to an NIT bid last year.  That may not sound all that great, but remember this is a CSU program that hasn't done shit since 2003.  This year could be tough because they lose their two leading scorers and front court starters, so it will be up to some reserves to step up - or this could be a breakout season for redshirt freshman center Chad Calcaterra, a name you probably recognize because he either spurned the Gophers or they spurned him, I don't remember.  And this is probably too many words about CSU already so I'll just say there's enough talent on the perimeter to get them to fourth and another probably NIT bid - tough to see an NCAA bid coming just yet.

5.  AIR FORCE FALCONS.  Air Force has gone from 0 conference wins, to one, and then jumped to six last season and thank god because while a super slow paced team that wins is kind of beautiful in a weird Betty White kind of way, a super slow paced terrible team is like spending time in a nursing home.  I don't remember where I was going with this.  Go Air Force!

7.  TCU HORNED FROGS.  TCU has something the two teams below them don't have, and that's a standout player and that's good enough for 7th place.  The Horned Frogs have Hank Thorns who led the country in assists at 7.0 per game and did it with an impressive 2.71 assist-to-turnover ratio, all while averaging double figures in points per game.  He's not much of a shooter, but he did notch 4 double-doubles last year of the points/assists variety which I'm going to assume led the nation.  Unfortunately TCU's actual best player, and Thorns back court mate, Ronnie Moss was suspended last year and transferred out, or this would have been a legitimately exciting and intriguing back court.  Oh well.  Not like anybody cares if it isn't football anyway.

7.  BOISE STATE COWBOYS.  If you're anything like me, and god help you if you are, you don't know dick about Boise State's basketball program because other than Utah State and Magnum Rolle nobody pays attention to the WAC.  According to what I read, they were a CBI team last year but are losing their top 4 scorers from last season and returning just one guy who played more than 18 minutes per game last season.  There's a bunch of blah blah newcomers, but really it's going to be a rough one for Boise.  They're stepping up in class conference-wise at the same time their team is taking a step backwards, but at least they aren't last.

8.  WYOMING COWBOYS.  In all my years of college basketball watching I'm almost positive I've never seen a Wyoming game. That's probably a good thing.  The good news is that they hired a new coach, Larry Shyatt, who was part of the mini-Florida dynasty that was going on.  The bad news is that when they hired him their best two players decided to split.  Basically they're now relying on a midget point guard, a guy who has had two knee surgeries in as many years, and Larry Nance's kid.  I don't think I'll be seeing them on TV any time soon. 

Other previews:
Big 12
ACC
Atlantic 10
Pac 12 
SEC 
C-USA

Mountain West College Basketball 2010 Preview

1.  San Diego State Aztecs.  I don't want to oversell a Mountain West team, because then I'd end up looking like some kind of jackass who pimps Dayton as a dynasty, but this Aztec team is loaded, and if you're looking for a final four sleeper from a non-BCS conference, look no further.  Kawhi Leonard is a complete stud, a potential NBA draft pick, and is top five amongst returnees in the conference in points, rebounds and steals and top 20 in blocks, assists, and field goal percentage.  Mean amongst boys, you might say, and he has his whole posse coming back with him.  You got his buddies down low in Malcolm Thomas, a double-digit scorer who was top 5 in rebounding, blocks, and FG% last year, and Billy White, another double-digit scorer who led the league in FG percentage at 59%.  And you get your starting back court back in double-figure scorer D.J. Gay (ha ha) and Chase Tapley.  Really the only thing they need is a true point guard (Gay is more of a combo) and a shooter.  Well, they signed a top point guard prospect in LaBradford Franklin, so really all they need is a shooter - if they need anything at all.  In case you can't tell, I'm high on SDSU this year.  Got 'em at 100-1, baby.  We goin' sizzla'.

2.  BYU Cougars.  Jimmer is back, and Jimmer is Jimmer, but he unfortunately loses his boy Tyler Haws to his weird mormon mission, what with the strange underwear and the weird supplementary bible works.  That's not to say Jimmer is on his own, because his third little buddy in the back court, Jackson Emery, is back, as is Noah Hartsock to man the lane.  The losses will hurt (along with Haws the Cougars also lose do-everything forward Jonathan Tavernari and starting center Chris Miles), but there is enough talent surrounding Jimmer that BYU should be dancing again this year, if dancing was allowed by the Mormon religion.  And by the way, Jimmer is totally a Utah/Mormon name.  My wife was raised mormon, and her family is bonkers.  She has cousins who named their kids Londyn, Brooklyn, Okland, Dagon, Presley, Daxton, Lindy, Maximus, and Braden.  I swear to god I'm not kidding.

3.  UNLV Runnin' Rebels.  The Rebels looked like the were going to be in great shape, getting all five starters back from last year's NCAA Tournament team, but then Tre'Von Willis choked some chick (that's frowned upon), Matt Shaw was booted after failing a drug test, and Kendall Wallace tore his ACL and is out for the year.  Ouch.  Luckily (for the team and Willis, not so much for the girl) Willis is only going to miss three games, and he'll be joined by Chace Stanback and Oscar Bellfield, as well as Derrick Jasper assuming he's back from his own knee injury.  That's enough to be near the top in the MWC but bad luck and dumb choices knock them down from loaded to merely good.

4.  New Mexico Lobos.  Usually when a program like New Mexico loses a couple of guys like Darington Hobson and Roman Martinez from a team that went 30-5 and reached the second round of the NCAA Tournament you can count on a down period to follow.  Luckily for Lobo fans, Steve Alford has them looking like the kind of team where a letdown still means an NCAA bid.  Stepping in for those two are Drew Gordon, the transfer from UCLA who played well in Westwood before heading to the desert, and Alex Kirk (who the Gophers were looking at at one point) who is the one of only two Rivals Top 150 recruit coming to the MWC (he's #116, the other is BYU's Kyle Collinsworth at #134).   It's not an even trade, of course, because Martinez and Hobson were do-it-all wings while Gordon and Kirk are post players, but it's the kind of influx of talent that will help, along with returning point guard Dairese Gary - particularly if Gordon has his head on straight.  Don't forget, he was a top 50 player as a freshman, and was averaging double-figures in points and 2 blocks per game last year.  He's still got the talent to be a star.

5.  Colorado State Rams.  Tim Miles has done a hell of a job, Travis Busch signing notwithstanding (and by the way, I heard he likes to hang out by himself in bars near the campus on Saturday mornings - true story), and he has the Rams solidly turned around from "shitbox" to "mediocre."  I don't know that they can turn the corner just yet, but there is some talent here.  Andy Ogide returns to man the paint for the Rams and he was top five in the league in both rebounding and field goal percentage, and Dorian Green had a very nice freshman season at point for CSU last year, averaging 12 points and 3 assists per game.  And don't forget this is where one-time Gopher PF target Chad Calcaterra landed.  He'll have a chance to contribute right away, but this team isn't quite ready to compete for an NCAA berth yet.  If only they had Travis Busch for one more year, that kind of hustle cures all ills.    

6.  Wyoming Cowboys.  The success (it's a relative term) of the Cowboys' season this year pretty much rests on the health of Afam Mujoeke's knee.  Two seasons ago Mujoeke won the MWC Freshman of the Year award, and then last year he was having a fine season averaging 17 points per game before he blew out his patella tendon, which sounds pretty terrible.  If he's back at full strength he'll join sophomore Desmar Jackson to give the Cowboys a nice one-two scoring punch, and make them viable enough that they will at least threaten to upset a team or two.  If he's not all the way back, it's going to be a long year in Laramie.  Or longer, at least.  I mean, I assume it's always a long year in Wyoming, what with all the long hours baling hay and milking cows before class and what not.

7.  Utah Utes.  This will be the last season for the Utes in the Mountain West, and it's probably about time to leave before they tarnish their legacy, because after being the dominant force in the conference since it's inception in 1999, winning five of the first seven league titles, they've fallen off, finishing better than 5th just once in the last five seasons and gaining just one NCAA berth.  That probably won't get much better this year.  Both of last year's two leading scorers are transferring (Carlon Brown to Colorado, Marshall Henderson to Texas Tech), and a host of bench fodder is leaving as well (missions and what have you) and the Utes will have a whole slew of new faces.  If some of those new guys turn out to be good guards Utah could finish higher than this because they do have a lot of size in 7-3 David Foster and 7-0 Jason Washburn, both of whom finished in the top five in blocked shots in the MWC with Foster finishing fourth nationally.  So they're big.  And probably slow since I assume the whole team is white.

8.  TCU Horned Frogs.  Well if we want to start with something nice, let's talk about TCU's back court because it's actually quite solid.  Ronnie Moss is an excellent all-around player who led the team in scoring (14.9 per game) and assists (5.9 per game, good for 1st in the conference and 9th nationally) and also chipped in with more than 3 rebounds and almost a steal per game.  He's not exactly a wizard with the jump shot (just 40% shooting last year) and he turns it over way too much (3.8 per game) but still - he's a heck of a player.  Joining him in the back court this year will be Hank Thorns, a transfer from Virginia Tech who had some limited success in his two years as a Hokie, hampered only by the fact that he can't shoot (30% from the field as a sophomore).  And speaking of can't shoot the third guard and second leading returning scorer, Greg Hill, shot just 41% last year, which actually makes him the marksman of the group.  So the guards are good but they can't shoot.  Now let me tell you all the good things about their front court players:  at least they aren't Air Force. 

9.  Air Force Falcons.  Remember when Air Force was kind of good for a minute there, using that slower-than-a-Vickers-Gunbus-offense?  They actually made the tournament in 2004 and 2006, but things have fallen off faster than Maverick after Goose died, and the Falcons have won just won conference game combined the last two seasons - lost that lovin' feeling indeed.  I'd love to sit here and make Top Gun/Fighter Jet jokes for another few sentences, but researching the Falcons makes me feel like Cougar after getting missile locked, and there's no Viper to be my wingman.  Great Balls of Fire!!

Week in Review - 3/21/2010

 Well, we made it back from Chicago and everyone is still alive.  Sorry for the lateness of this post, but believe me after pulling consecutive days with 12+ hours logged at the bar, the last thing I could manage when I got back on Sunday was writing some stupid crap for this stupid blog.  But now that I'm back, even though I still feel like crap, I figure I should at least put up some kind of half-assed Week in Review (well, more half-assed than usual, I mean.) 

Quickly, two things that stood out from the Chicago weekend:

1)  A Colombian man openly weeping in the middle of the Dayton bar while listening to latin music on his pink Ipod.

2)  Loud, obnoxious Kansas fan yelling "yes" when Kansas hit that meaningless three with 0.4 left in the game.  He either forgot the actual score or has no idea how basketball works, and I'm not sure which way is funnier but I know he had all of us rolling in the back room after we heard him. 

Anyway, on to the usual garbage:


WHO WAS AWESOME

1.  Xavier.  It's hard to blame the Gophers too much for the loss on Friday, particularly when the Musketeers were the far better team, and they continued to show that by beating Pitt on Sunday to advance to the Sweet 16 for the third consecutive season - one of just two teams (Michigan State is the other) who can make that claim.  Sure, there were things the Gophers could have done better/differently, but the entire game it seemed as if the Gophers were doing everything in their power just to keep it close, and I don't really remember ever thinking they had a chance to pull it out.  Jordan Crawford was by far the best player on the court with his 28 point, 6 rebound, 5 assist performance (which he followed up with 27-6-6 against Pitt) and the Gophers had no idea how to keep Love and McLean off the boards.  Xavier has enough talent to take down Kansas State and could advance to the Elite 8 this week.  I don't think they have enough juice to beat Syracuse, but once you get this deep, anything can happen.

2.  Joe Mauer.  Or Bill Smith or Ron Shapiro or whoever you want to give the credit too.  The important thing is that Mauer is signed  Even if he regresses a bit, his downside is probably something like .310/.390/.480 with 15 homers, and from a gold glove catcher even that is probably worth close to what he's getting paid.  Add in his upside, MVP-potential, and what he means to this town, and it had to be done.  I'd say this is all they had left to do, but with Nathan now out for the year I think they need to make another move.  This team is really good and right on the verge, and I'm afraid if they don't do something it's going to be a disaster.  Tell me you don't see them going closer-by-committee, having it become a disaster, and not realizing or trying to make a change until it's too late.  That's exactly something the Twins would do.  I read somewhere that the Padres want Perkins and two "good" prospects for Heath Bell.  Now, if that "good" level means guys like Ben Revere and Wilson Ramos I'd tell the Padres to go screw, but if they're talking like Trevor Plouffe and Steven Tolleson then it's time to run, not walk, to make this deal. 

3.  Ali Farokhmanesh.  The biggest upset of the tournament thus far has got to be UNI's victory over Kansas (well, Ohio over G-Town was probably bigger, but essentially meaningless), and the hero was without question Cedar Falls' version of Jamal Abu Shamala in Farokmanesh.  That monster three pointer he hit with 30 seconds left was the stupidest, dumbest, ballsiest shot I've ever seen, and since it went down and ended up being the game winner, Farok goes down as a hero rather than a goat, and is going to end up being a tournament legend who is talked about long after his playing days are done a la Bryce Drew.  Add in the fact that he also hit a three with under five seconds to go to give the Panthers their opening round win over UNLV, and this kid had one hell of a weekend.  It's just unfortunate that he's a terrorist.

4.  Cornell.  Remember all that "under-seeded" talk?  Well, two wins and a sweet 16 berth says that wasn't just crazy talk.  I still contend the Big Red caught a nice break in running up against two team's that play a similar style and weren't going to out-athletic them, but you can't really talk down to an Ivy League team that ends up playing in the second week of the tournament.  Even though Ryan Wittman gets most of the press, especially here with his Minnesota connection, seven-footer Jeff Foote might end up being the key against Kentucky.  He's not just some big ole seven-footer who plays because he's seven feet tall in the Ivy League, he has some legit skill and good footwork and is going to need it all against Kentucky.  This is going to be a real tester, since Kentucky is playing as well as it has all year.  I'd love to see Calipari go down, no matter how unlikely it may be.

5.  Michigan State.  How annoying are the Spartans?  It's the same thing every year, they look mediocre all through the Big Ten season, end up with a middle-high type seed, you think they're ripe for the upset, and then they just keep winning.  That monstrously entertaining win over Maryland on Sunday gave Michigan State their third Sweet-16 in as many years (meanwhile the Gophers haven't made it that far in over ten years) and showed once again why you never, ever doubt Izzo.  I read that there is a 90% chance Sparty will be without Kalin Lucas against Northern Iowa, and normally I'd say that is a pretty big deal, but it doesn't seem to matter who is there or gone on Izzo's teams, so they'll probably win by ten.  Oh, and Durrell Summers is absolutely going to be a huge star next season.  All Big-10 First Team.


WHO SUCKED

1.  Scottie Reynolds.  There's not much as enjoyable as watching a truly overrated chucker nearly shoot his team to a loss in the first round against a 15-seed and then, after his team manages to escape thanks to an NCAA mandate to the refs that Robert Morris isn't allowed to win, doing the same thing 48 hours later, but this time they couldn't escape and were dropped by the suddenly super popular Omar Samhan and St. Mary's 75-68.  I'm not kidding either.  Your precious All-American shot 2-15 in the first game and was 2-11 in the second, going 4-26 in what has to be a record in futility from someone who idiotic fans love because they're stupid.  He makes Stephen Curry look like Magic Johnson.  I'm almost sad he's graduating, just because he's so fun to root against, but I will enjoy not having to hear about him anymore.  Maybe the most overrated player in history.

2.  The Big East.  Speaking of overrated, what do we think of the Big East?  Eight teams with bids, called the best conference in all the land for the second-year in a row, and yet only two teams (Syracuse and West Virginia) are still alive for the Sweet 16.  It's really not that bad if you think about how they made up 1/8th of the invitees and still make up 1/8th of the remaining teams, but they were set up for a lot more success.  Both Villanova and Georgetown had Final Four aspirations and Pitt was a three-seed, Marquette and Notre Dame as six seeds were picked by some to make the Sweet 16 but lost in the first round, and Louisville was thought to be a challenge for Duke in round two but couldn't even get past Cal.  That's currently a 6-6 record for the conference by my count, which sounds ok until you think about how they had a 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 6, 6, and 9 seed.  Seriously, pretty embarrassing.

3.  The Mountain West.  Well, if we're going to talk about disappointing conferences we can't very well ignore the Mountain West, which had three teams invited, two with a good chance at getting to the Sweet 16, but instead ended up going just 2-3, with their top team (New Mexico) getting bounced hard in round 2 by Washington by 20 and BYU refusing to even show up in their second round guy against Kansas State after just squeaking by a Florida team that probably didn't even deserve a bid.  Not that I necessarily thought these guys were great, but this certainly doesn't help my argument that high-mid-major teams from conferences like the A-10 and MWC can be valid sleepers in the NCAA tournament.  Apparently you have to go to smaller conferences like the Ivy or Missouri Valley to have a prayer.

4.  Richmond.  Hey, speaking of teams that suck and aren't valid sleepers, let's give it up for my most disappointing team of the dance - The Richmond Spiders.  I was so fired up for these guys to make a run.  They closed out winning twelve of their last fourteen including a huge win over Xavier in the A-10 tournament, and even though I knew St. Mary's was a dangerous 10 seed I was still expecting a Richmond win followed by another win over Villanova.  Obviously not.  And they would have beaten Villanova, too, just like the Gaels did, but they decided not to show up for their first game.  Seriously, have to seen this stat?  Richmond was out-rebounded 39-16?  How is that even possible?  The earlier mentioned Samhan had twelve boards all by himself, which means he damned near out-rebounded the Spiders all by himself.  Ridiculous.  And such a good team, too.  I mean, they just had 35 rebounds in a game against Xavier the prior week.  Such a shame. 

5.  Blake Hoffarber. I'm sick of Hoffarber.  Actually that's not exactly true, I'm just sick of an offense that relies so heavily on someone who can't create his own shot.  Hoff is just fine.  He's a great shooter (unless he's too open), he's a good rebounder for his size and lack of athleticism, and he's a smart player.  I'm just sick of watching all these good teams and all these good players and we're stuck watching the Gophers and their two players who can create their own shot, one of whom is likely functionally retarded.  I want better players, dammit.  Get on it, Tubby.  You need to get this program turned all the way around before you bolt to Auburn.  Don't you betray me, too.  I'm still trying to recover from Rico Tucker turning his back on me.