Ok so I was wrong. Wake did get to the line a ton but didn't shoot well once there, the Gophers controlled their rebounding, and the Gophers shot the bell well and got a great night out of Andre Hollins. Wake was as bad as I thought and the Gophers were just better. It's nice to see them take care of business against an inferior opponent on the road, not that they'll have to do that again for a month or so. Anyway, here's ten things.
1. Can we get this Dre Hollins all the time? Man is he fun to watch when he gets going like tonight. It seems like it's been a rough go with him lately, what with his regression to chucker and turnover machine status so far this year, but tonight he had it all working again and it was glorious. His shot was so on he was NBA Jam On Fire in the second half and he was active the whole game, resulting in 7 boards. He did have 3 turnovers but that's acceptable, even against 0 assists because he's just not a point guard anymore. It's pretty much Mathieu or Mason getting the ball handling work, and I'm actually more comfortable with either of them than with Dre, so it works for me. He's a scorer, so go be a scorer.
2. The press continues to work. You can't say Pitino hasn't changed this team's style, that's for sure. They're fast - last night's game ended up at 77 possessions, just shy of the Louisville game and helped speed Wake up to a faster pace than they generally like, which ended up in sloppy possessions and a whole mess of Gopher turnovers once again. Wake gave the ball away on 23% of their possessions with the Gophers stealing the ball 13 times (18 total TOs), an incredible number which upped their % to 14.7% on the year, 7th highest in the country. It's worth mentioning that last night's press was more aggressive with trapping than the press usually is, suggesting Pitino knew Wake was a questionable ball handling team and intentionally upped the pressure. It's a little thing and may seem obvious, but I know other coaches here didn't make little adjustments like that from game to game. It's nice to see that attention to detail and willingness to tweak things based on opponent.
3. The Gopher guards do a really nice job against ball screens. Aaron Craft got a lot of pub last year about how he's the best defender ever and stuff like that, and he was good, but one of the things he was exceptional at was slithering over the top of a ball screen (Shannon Scott too, which is why OSU was so good defensively last year). If you can slip between the screener and the ball handler, nobody has to hedge or help or switch or rotate, and it becomes a wasted motion by the offense that takes up time but does nothing towards getting the offensive team closer to scoring. It's a valuable skill, and the Gopher guards are good at it (not Craft or Scott good, but good enough to be mentioned). Mathieu is on that Scott/Craft level, Hollins can do it every time if his offensive game is clicking (yes, sorry, but his offensive game triggers his defensive level of effort, it's true), and I've seen Mason do it more often than you'd expect a freshman too. It's not a stat and doesn't show up in the paper or our fantasy league, but it's a really valuable skill and three Gopher guards have it. Nice.
4. I'm going to say something nice about Carlos Morris. There are parts of his undisciplined JuCo wild approach that work because of his athleticism. Eight steals last night is awesome, and yes, many of them game with him gambling and taking chances (which is fine) and there were times he missed the steal and gave Wake an easy path to the basket or to break the press (which happens) but as long as his gambles are paying off with 8 steals, I'll take it. I also really like how when he gets a rebound he'll just turn and book it down court. Mathieu is the only other one who does that. They just fly and then assess if they should continue to attack or pull back once they cross the timeline rather than let the defense get back and get set right away. I love it, and I think more Gophers should do it when they get a board (NOT Joey King). I didn't like Morris's shot selection, six turnovers, or that time he went up for a (ill advised) jumper and chucked the ball straight backwards, but I've been hammering on him and he's not really all bad, he just needs to be controlled a little bit - like a pet alligator.
5. Beyond just Morris, this team turns into a really dumb team sometimes. I really hate dumb teams. As an avid gambler one of my biggest rules is "never bet on a dumb team." It's one of my strongest rules along with "never take an under on Marcus Paige or Yogi Ferrell" and "don't ever bet on a football team who can't throw". Sometimes, however, you don't know who is a dumb team, and sometimes smart teams turn into dumb teams, and all this is just me finding a way to say that I'm starting to fear that this Gopher team is dumb. Dumb teams take stupid shots, make dumb turnovers, foul too much and at stupid times, miss tons of free throws, and give up easy buckets with defensive lapses including but not limited to not getting back in transition which the Gophers did like 117 times last game (I didn't count). So far this year the Gophers take stupid shots, make dumb turnovers, foul too much and at stupid times, miss tons of free throws, and give up easy buckets with defensive lapses including but not limited to not getting back in transition. I'm absolutely terrified for the rest of this year.
6. The Gophers kept going to a pretty simple play, and it kept resulting in 3 points. It's nothing special, really, but they used it several times and Hollins got two three-pointers out of it and King got one. Shooter guy starts on one wing and just sprints to the opposite corner or wing, rubbing off a back pick on the near wing and a second pick on the opposite block. It's basically just two picks, but it worked early for the Gophers and they kept going back to it, rightly so since it worked several times. They also ran a modified version for Carlos Morris where instead of going to the corner or wing for a jumper he turned it into a curl cut where he's already moving towards the bucket when he receives the ball. Good modification. Good play.
7. Josh Martin is going to be a really good rebounder some day. His box score looks pretty brutal with just six minutes played and 1 rebound (to go with one missed shot, two turnovers, and two fouls) but I paid attention to Martin last night and I saw some promising things, mainly around rebounding. Offensive or defensive, he was always in good position and got his hand on 2-3 other rebounds that he couldn't corral because his positioning was perfect. He also got shoved almost all the way under the basket by some Wake guy on a free throw so we're still a little ways off, but he'll get there. I'm going to say one year in the future he'll average as many as EIGHT rebounds per game. You heard it here first.
8. Mo Walker, rim protector? Walker is never going to be confused for Antoine Broxsie or Jerome Holman when it comes to shot blocking, what with 37 career blocks coming into this season, but suddenly he's a different defender. The combination of the weight loss, recovery from injury, and the confidence he's gained after a successful season last year have him as active as I've ever seen defensively and it's paying off big time. I always considered Eliason the defensive presence and Walker the offensive banger, but this year Walker is averaging 1.6 blocks in 20 minutes per game, blocking 9.8% of the opponents shot attempts while he's on the floor. That's an incredible number that's doubled from last season and is almost 3 times higher than Eliason, and it ranks as the 42nd best percentage in DI (behind only A.J. Hammons, Alex Olah, and Michal Cekovsky in the B10). I didn't notice this until last night when he was challenging, and blocking, shots but man, what a huge development.
9. The Gophers look really good in transition, thanks to Mathieu. Boy is this team fun to watch in transition. I love when Mathieu just takes off and guys are sprinting to fill lanes. He's incredibly good at being able to observe the defenders at 100mph and know when to go to the rim, when to pull back, and my favorite is when he'll kind of drift towards the off ball defender, knowing a teammate is screaming up the opposite wing and he can hit him with either pass leading towards the rim or a kick out for an open three attempt. He struggles against teams who can challenge his quickness, but when he has it going like last night (8 assists) it's a thing of beauty. I still wish he'd look for his shot a bit more since he is a quality shooter but he's down a full 2 shot attempts per game this year. Don't worry, that's not a complaint. Love this guy.
10. So by my count the Big Ten now leads the challenge 6-2. That's good! They only need two more wins to win this thing which would be the sixth straight year of the Big Ten not losing after losing the first ten iterations of this thing. Normally I'm not one who cares about rooting for your conference and usually I hope any and all rivals face ruthless and humiliating defeats whenever possible, but in this case Big Ten wins help the Gophers. It bumps up any winning team's RPI, and by extension the whole conference's RPI, and if the B10 does well it helps the national perception of the teams which can only help in March when those nerds go into their sealed room and start talking about NCAA Tournament bids. So yeah, in general I root for the Big Ten in these games, except for Iowa and I hope a black hole opens up in Madison tonight and swallows Wisconsin, Duke, and all the fans of those teams in attendance into Bolivian. Who wouldn't want that?
So that's it for meaningful games until the conference slate opens on New Year's Eve at Purdue. Until then it's a bunch of garbage. Next up is Western Carolina on Wednesday, and other than Kevin Martin possibly showing up (it's his alma mater and the Wolves are in town, though they play the Rockets and I don't know the rules like if he has to be there when he's hurt or if he can go to the Gopher game) there's not a whole lot to be excited about. Really not the Martin thing either because meh.
Showing posts with label Wake Forest. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Wake Forest. Show all posts
Wednesday, December 3, 2014
Monday, December 1, 2014
Game Preview: Gophers vs. Wake Forest
This Wake game just sucks. Really sucks. It's a total no win, big loss situation. Wake Forest is not a very good team and they just lost at home to a horrendous Delaware State club so they shouldn't be scary. That also means a win against them will mean nothing for their March hopes, and a loss will be a big black mark. They'll be on the road, where they're always shaky, against an ACC opponent with one very strong skill (they're one of the best rebounding teams in the country and tops overall on not allowing offensive rebounds) in a game they can't afford to lose. Doesn't seem fair. They're going to be a 5 point favorite in a game where a loss is a major resume killer. Sucks. So I guess yeah just win.
The reason the Deacons control the boards mainly lies with the talents of 6-9 junior forward Devin Thomas, who 4th in the country in defensive rebounding percentage, grabbing 36% of all opponent missed shots when he's on the floor, adding up to 10.3 rebounds per game. He's not a huge scorer (11.7ppg) but he's capable, having put up 19 against Arkansas, the best defensive team Wake has faced this year. He mainly hangs around the bucket and is shooting 51% this year and he'll be a handful for Eliason and Walker to handle. He also excels at getting to the line, drawing over 7 fouls per 40 minutes and having taken nearly as many free throws as field goals on the season. I seriously doubt both, if any, of those two can avoid hacking away so that means we may see a hearty dose of Bakary Konate. Sink or swim, kid, sink or swim.
The other Demon Deacon who deserves his own call out is Codi McIntyre-Miller, and not just because he spells his first name with an I. He's a bit of an odd duck as a 6-3 guard who doesn't shoot 3-pointers (just 7 attempts this year), but's still managed to average 11.3 points per game this year though on 39% shooting. He's the play maker and point guard for the team, though his assist numbers have taken a bit of a tumble this year and his turnovers have jumped up a bit. The best news of all is that he's taking over 30% of his team's shots when he's on the floor with an eFG% of 39% and you know what that means - CHUCKER ALERT! Always fun.
Behind those two there's a mishmash of 7 other guys who play 13 or more minutes per game, but none really standout. Mitchell Wilbekin (6.9ppg, 1.6spg), brother of Scottie, is the other starting guard and a plus defender and the team's top three point threat (44% on about 4 attempts per game). Cornelius Hudson (7ppg, 4.3rpg) starts on the wing and he's another great rebounder on this team, and Michael Crabtree's brother. Down low Darius Leonard starts next to Thomas (6.6ppg, 3.4rpg). He's not scary, though if it goes as expected and Joey King ends up guarding him who knows. Off the bench Wake gets some scoring pop from 6-10 freshman Konstantinos Mitoglou (8.1ppg and 5.6rpg in just 18.1mpg) and 6-1 junior guard Madison Jones (7.1ppg, 2.9apg), another point guard who doesn't shoot threes. There's a bunch of other guys here but Danny Manning mixes and matches a lot of guys, trying to find a workable and winning combination. The seven I touched on here are the ones who should really impact the game.
Overall, Wake is a pretty bad team. But they have a couple of big advantages: They are a much better rebounding team than the Gophers and could end up getting a ton of o-boards while allowing Minnesota to grab zero of them, and they get to the line regularly and that's been the Gophers major weakness. On the flippity flop, the Gophers create a ton of turnovers and Wake has been really sloppy with the ball this year, and even better most of their turnovers are coming via the steal and the Gophers are rocking the thefts this year. Neither team can shoot though both share the ball well, so that's a push. The way I see it, if you look at the four factors most highly correlated with winning basketball, there's one push (shooting), one where the Gophers have the edge (turnovers), and two go to Wake (rebounding, free throws). Add in Wake having home court and I struggle to see this going well for Minnesota. Someone push the panic button.
Wake Forest 64, Minnesota 60.
The reason the Deacons control the boards mainly lies with the talents of 6-9 junior forward Devin Thomas, who 4th in the country in defensive rebounding percentage, grabbing 36% of all opponent missed shots when he's on the floor, adding up to 10.3 rebounds per game. He's not a huge scorer (11.7ppg) but he's capable, having put up 19 against Arkansas, the best defensive team Wake has faced this year. He mainly hangs around the bucket and is shooting 51% this year and he'll be a handful for Eliason and Walker to handle. He also excels at getting to the line, drawing over 7 fouls per 40 minutes and having taken nearly as many free throws as field goals on the season. I seriously doubt both, if any, of those two can avoid hacking away so that means we may see a hearty dose of Bakary Konate. Sink or swim, kid, sink or swim.
The other Demon Deacon who deserves his own call out is Codi McIntyre-Miller, and not just because he spells his first name with an I. He's a bit of an odd duck as a 6-3 guard who doesn't shoot 3-pointers (just 7 attempts this year), but's still managed to average 11.3 points per game this year though on 39% shooting. He's the play maker and point guard for the team, though his assist numbers have taken a bit of a tumble this year and his turnovers have jumped up a bit. The best news of all is that he's taking over 30% of his team's shots when he's on the floor with an eFG% of 39% and you know what that means - CHUCKER ALERT! Always fun.
Behind those two there's a mishmash of 7 other guys who play 13 or more minutes per game, but none really standout. Mitchell Wilbekin (6.9ppg, 1.6spg), brother of Scottie, is the other starting guard and a plus defender and the team's top three point threat (44% on about 4 attempts per game). Cornelius Hudson (7ppg, 4.3rpg) starts on the wing and he's another great rebounder on this team, and Michael Crabtree's brother. Down low Darius Leonard starts next to Thomas (6.6ppg, 3.4rpg). He's not scary, though if it goes as expected and Joey King ends up guarding him who knows. Off the bench Wake gets some scoring pop from 6-10 freshman Konstantinos Mitoglou (8.1ppg and 5.6rpg in just 18.1mpg) and 6-1 junior guard Madison Jones (7.1ppg, 2.9apg), another point guard who doesn't shoot threes. There's a bunch of other guys here but Danny Manning mixes and matches a lot of guys, trying to find a workable and winning combination. The seven I touched on here are the ones who should really impact the game.
Overall, Wake is a pretty bad team. But they have a couple of big advantages: They are a much better rebounding team than the Gophers and could end up getting a ton of o-boards while allowing Minnesota to grab zero of them, and they get to the line regularly and that's been the Gophers major weakness. On the flippity flop, the Gophers create a ton of turnovers and Wake has been really sloppy with the ball this year, and even better most of their turnovers are coming via the steal and the Gophers are rocking the thefts this year. Neither team can shoot though both share the ball well, so that's a push. The way I see it, if you look at the four factors most highly correlated with winning basketball, there's one push (shooting), one where the Gophers have the edge (turnovers), and two go to Wake (rebounding, free throws). Add in Wake having home court and I struggle to see this going well for Minnesota. Someone push the panic button.
Wake Forest 64, Minnesota 60.
Sunday, November 30, 2014
Gophers finished third in NIT Tip-Off! (out of 4).
First they were in total charge of the St. John's game, until they weren't, and ended up losing. Then they were in total charge of the Georgia game, until they weren't, but ended up winning. Overall the event did more to make me pessimistic about the rest of the season than optimistic, but that doesn't mean there weren't some positives. Up front I will tell you I watched the St. John's game at the bar which is a much less conducive environment to trying to make semi-interesting or fairly entertaining observations, so much of this will refer more to the Georgia game. It's doubtful it's semi-interesting or fairly entertaining anyway, as per usual. Anyway, here's ten things.
1. Free throws are killing me. I'm talking both sides of the ball here. After FT shooting nights of 9-16 against St. John's and 12-23 versus Georgia, the Gophers are now shooting a robust 55.2% for the season. That 55.2% ranks 343rd in the entire NCAA. There are 351 teams in Division I. UNLV is the only other major conference team anywhere near the Gophers in terms of being that horrible at free throws which, in case you'rs unsure, are completely unguarded shots by rule. There's more. The Gophers rank 318th in opponents FT attempts per FG attempt, which means they are constantly putting their opponents at the free throw line where they get to shoot without any defense. Usually this kind of profile belongs to an undersized, undermanned team and all the teams near the Gophers here are small schools or crappy teams like Oregon State and Boston College. The Gophers are giving up a ridiculous amount of free points while failing to take advantage of the same. Opponents are scoring 27% of their points at the line (rank #309), while the Gophers score 17% of their points from there (290th). This is a really good way to lose a lot of games you probably shouldn't, and is a major, major red flag. I'm pretty scared. Keep an eye on this one.
2. Nate Mason continues to impress. He led the team in scoring against the Red Storm with 15 and though he struggled shooting against Georgia he chipped in with 3 assists and 3 rebounds and has clearly emerged as the top player off the bench. Much of what he does is obvious when you watch him, but I want to point out something that might not stand out - he's an incredible rebounder. He's averaging 4.3 per game, and considering he's not playing starter's minutes it's even more impressive. His defensive rebounding rate is 20.8%, meaning he grabs one out of every five missed shots on the defensive end when he's on the court. That number ranks 216th in the country and I don't mean just for guards, I mean for everyone, and he's a 6-1 guard. He's probably going to average a triple double his senior year, if he's not already in the NBA.
3. Richard Pitino's beloved pressure defense is working. Mostly, at least, as the Gophers rank 31st in the country in defensive efficiency, giving up just .92 points per possession. They're mainly winning by causing turnovers, ranking 10th in the country and turning over their opponents 27.1% of the time, a ridiculous number that's just behind Rick Pitino and Louisville's 27.5%. The Gophers are also playing at the pace of 70.2 possessions per game (52nd in the country) which is identical to Louisville, so I think it's safe to say the system is pretty much in place. How well it ends up working against B10 competition is up in the air as it can lead to easy shots by the opponent as the Gophers rank just 127th in opponents' two point FG percentage, but as long as the turnovers keep coming you can handle a little trade off there. Georgia certainly did their part by giving the ball away 18 times, as did St. John's on Wednesday. It's a fun brand of basketball, and even more fun when they win.
4. Another thing that is fun so far is how well the Gophers are passing the basketball. With one glaring, notable exception (see below) the Gophers are moving the ball really well and it's fun to watch. Dre Mathieu is one of the best in the country at getting into the lane because he's so quick, and he's been exceptional this year at hitting open teammates when he does. Mason has mostly been a pass first kind of guy this year, Dre Hollins is an excellent passer when he wants to be, and both Joey King and Mo Walker are above average passers for big men. This has led to the Gophers registering an assist on 64.5% of their baskets this year, a number that ranks 21st in the nation and (somehow) 4th in the Big Ten behind Iowa, Purdue (?), and Michigan State. Of course, there's someone who is trying to destroy all that fun.
5. Pitino has got to reign in Carlos Morris. Last year writing about DeAndre Matheiu I said I like my guards a little bit out of control, and I do, but Morris is not a little bit out of control he's just straight up damaging when he's on the court. Poor defensive rotations, ball stopping, and bad shots are three of the most harmful things you can bring to a team and he's an expert at all three. His only good game this year was against Franklin Pierce, he's taking one shot attempt per point this year, and has as many turnovers as assists. It hasn't been good, though I'm not ready to give up because he has serious athletic potential, it just needs to be harnessed. There was one possession in the Georgia game where the team was moving the ball around the perimeter pretty well until it got to Morris at the top of the key. His defender was playing off him just enough to dare him shoot so Morris did, but not before holding the ball and just staring at the defensive dude for like 3 seconds, no joke. Naturally the result of the shot was an airball. The whole thing was a perfect encapsulation of his season so far. Let's hope we can look back on this as growing pains by year's end, because Morris is going to get a ton of minutes, and the less damage he can do the better.
6. Charles Buggs could be a solid contributor. I don't think there have ever been any questions about his shooting and he's shooting well again this season (5-10 on threes), but for Buggs to really crack the rotation he needed to work on other things. With the McNeil situation he's going to get a lot more rope, and he's going to get time at the 3 spot which, to me, is more his natural fit if he can play defense. So far this year he's looked better defensively, though not a standout by any means but he's not getting lost nearly as often. He's rebounding a little bit better, and most importantly he's slashed his turnovers from a horrendous 27% to an outstanding 10%. He's even grabbed a couple of steals (literally two) and gone to the line a handful of times. Buggs was pretty clearly a long term project from the moment he stepped on campus, but he's looked considerably better this year to the point where he might be able to give them 10-15 minutes per game which is going to be badly needed now. What more could you ask for?
7. I actually really like Bob Knight as an announcer. Sure he gets stuck on certain ideas and won't let them go, such as shot fakes and not having Eliason or Walker set picks so far away from the basket, but I really like the coach's perspective he brings to being the color man. I know plenty of other announcers are former coaches, but they all seem to have at least shifted some towards "being entertaining" from "being informative" (with varying degrees of success) but Knight is still in coach/educator mode. He's always pointing out positioning on defense or rebounding or discussing plays more in depth than your average guy, and he does it in a deadpan voice that pretty much tells you he's not interested in being your trained monkey there for entertainment. I also like how he kept referring to Walker and Eliason as "the big kids." I don't know. I dig it.
8. Dre Hollins has turned into a turnover machine. And I don't like it one bit. Twelve turnovers in the two tournament games bring his season total to 18 against 19 assists. His assist rate is actually up this year compared to last after plummeting from his sophomore season, which is to be expected with Mathieu on board and taking up most of the point guard minutes, but his turnover rate has absolutely sky rocketed to 27%, worse even than his wild freshman year. The only players in the conference who play major minutes with a worse turnover rate are ball handlers new to the league (Lourawls Nairn (34%), freshman), Tai Webster (30%, his second year), Bishop Daniels (28%, juco transfer)) or big men with questionable handles (A.J. Hammons (28%), Mo Walker (29%), Ross Travis (28%)). I mean, that's a really crappy number. Take that turnover number and add in 41% shooting from the floor and that's an awful lot of wasted possessions. He's in chucker territory. Please stop doing that.
9. I finally made sriracha fried rice and it was awesome. I've had it at a couple of Thai places and it's like, the best thing ever, so I finally decided to give it a shot and I'm damn glad I did. It's one of the most delicious things ever. It's great too, because for the veggies you can just use whatever you have. One time I had green pepper so I used it, another time (yes I made it twice this weekend) we were out of pepper so I used about a quarter bag of frozen peas and it worked out just fine. Here's the recipe. You're welcome.
2 c. cooked rice (I just used minute rice)
2 celery stalks, chopped or slivered
1 carrot, peeled and chopped or slivered
1/2 green pepper, diced
1/4 bag frozen peas
1/4 t dried ginger (if you have fresh it's probably better, I didn't)
1 t toasted sesame oil
2 T soy sauce
2 T sriracha
1-2 garlic cloves
some green onions, chopped with the white and green separated
1. Heat a skillet or wok on medium high until hot, pour in some olive oil and garlic and saute for 30 seconds
2. add the veggies except the green part of the green onion and saute for about 3 minutes
3. add the rice and ginger and saute about 3 minutes, rice should start to change color a little
4. add the soy sauce, sesame oil, and sriracha and mix until everything is combined
5. remove from heat and eat.
So good.
10. This Wake game is the last one that's going to matter for a while. I'm not really sure if Wake Forest is any good (tune in tomorrow) but it's the last threat to the Gophers for about a month, and the last game that will could potentially have any positive impact on the Gophers' future NCAA Tournament resume. The next six games after the Deacons are just brutal. The best teams according to kenpom are teams like Western Carolina, Seattle, and UNC-Wilmington who aren't even contenders in their own conferences and who rank in the mid-200s. The NCAA selection committee doesn't use kenpom at all (I don't think) but I'm pretty sure there's some sort of correlation when it comes to RPI and none of these clown shoes teams are going to help. One huge advantage Tubby's staff had over Pitino's is they had figured out how to make a schedule full of non-threatening games which still kept their SOS and RPI in good shape. i don't think this schedule is going to do that. Which means the Big 10 season is going to be even more important than in previous years, which terrifies me. Beat Wake.
1. Free throws are killing me. I'm talking both sides of the ball here. After FT shooting nights of 9-16 against St. John's and 12-23 versus Georgia, the Gophers are now shooting a robust 55.2% for the season. That 55.2% ranks 343rd in the entire NCAA. There are 351 teams in Division I. UNLV is the only other major conference team anywhere near the Gophers in terms of being that horrible at free throws which, in case you'rs unsure, are completely unguarded shots by rule. There's more. The Gophers rank 318th in opponents FT attempts per FG attempt, which means they are constantly putting their opponents at the free throw line where they get to shoot without any defense. Usually this kind of profile belongs to an undersized, undermanned team and all the teams near the Gophers here are small schools or crappy teams like Oregon State and Boston College. The Gophers are giving up a ridiculous amount of free points while failing to take advantage of the same. Opponents are scoring 27% of their points at the line (rank #309), while the Gophers score 17% of their points from there (290th). This is a really good way to lose a lot of games you probably shouldn't, and is a major, major red flag. I'm pretty scared. Keep an eye on this one.
2. Nate Mason continues to impress. He led the team in scoring against the Red Storm with 15 and though he struggled shooting against Georgia he chipped in with 3 assists and 3 rebounds and has clearly emerged as the top player off the bench. Much of what he does is obvious when you watch him, but I want to point out something that might not stand out - he's an incredible rebounder. He's averaging 4.3 per game, and considering he's not playing starter's minutes it's even more impressive. His defensive rebounding rate is 20.8%, meaning he grabs one out of every five missed shots on the defensive end when he's on the court. That number ranks 216th in the country and I don't mean just for guards, I mean for everyone, and he's a 6-1 guard. He's probably going to average a triple double his senior year, if he's not already in the NBA.
3. Richard Pitino's beloved pressure defense is working. Mostly, at least, as the Gophers rank 31st in the country in defensive efficiency, giving up just .92 points per possession. They're mainly winning by causing turnovers, ranking 10th in the country and turning over their opponents 27.1% of the time, a ridiculous number that's just behind Rick Pitino and Louisville's 27.5%. The Gophers are also playing at the pace of 70.2 possessions per game (52nd in the country) which is identical to Louisville, so I think it's safe to say the system is pretty much in place. How well it ends up working against B10 competition is up in the air as it can lead to easy shots by the opponent as the Gophers rank just 127th in opponents' two point FG percentage, but as long as the turnovers keep coming you can handle a little trade off there. Georgia certainly did their part by giving the ball away 18 times, as did St. John's on Wednesday. It's a fun brand of basketball, and even more fun when they win.
4. Another thing that is fun so far is how well the Gophers are passing the basketball. With one glaring, notable exception (see below) the Gophers are moving the ball really well and it's fun to watch. Dre Mathieu is one of the best in the country at getting into the lane because he's so quick, and he's been exceptional this year at hitting open teammates when he does. Mason has mostly been a pass first kind of guy this year, Dre Hollins is an excellent passer when he wants to be, and both Joey King and Mo Walker are above average passers for big men. This has led to the Gophers registering an assist on 64.5% of their baskets this year, a number that ranks 21st in the nation and (somehow) 4th in the Big Ten behind Iowa, Purdue (?), and Michigan State. Of course, there's someone who is trying to destroy all that fun.
5. Pitino has got to reign in Carlos Morris. Last year writing about DeAndre Matheiu I said I like my guards a little bit out of control, and I do, but Morris is not a little bit out of control he's just straight up damaging when he's on the court. Poor defensive rotations, ball stopping, and bad shots are three of the most harmful things you can bring to a team and he's an expert at all three. His only good game this year was against Franklin Pierce, he's taking one shot attempt per point this year, and has as many turnovers as assists. It hasn't been good, though I'm not ready to give up because he has serious athletic potential, it just needs to be harnessed. There was one possession in the Georgia game where the team was moving the ball around the perimeter pretty well until it got to Morris at the top of the key. His defender was playing off him just enough to dare him shoot so Morris did, but not before holding the ball and just staring at the defensive dude for like 3 seconds, no joke. Naturally the result of the shot was an airball. The whole thing was a perfect encapsulation of his season so far. Let's hope we can look back on this as growing pains by year's end, because Morris is going to get a ton of minutes, and the less damage he can do the better.
6. Charles Buggs could be a solid contributor. I don't think there have ever been any questions about his shooting and he's shooting well again this season (5-10 on threes), but for Buggs to really crack the rotation he needed to work on other things. With the McNeil situation he's going to get a lot more rope, and he's going to get time at the 3 spot which, to me, is more his natural fit if he can play defense. So far this year he's looked better defensively, though not a standout by any means but he's not getting lost nearly as often. He's rebounding a little bit better, and most importantly he's slashed his turnovers from a horrendous 27% to an outstanding 10%. He's even grabbed a couple of steals (literally two) and gone to the line a handful of times. Buggs was pretty clearly a long term project from the moment he stepped on campus, but he's looked considerably better this year to the point where he might be able to give them 10-15 minutes per game which is going to be badly needed now. What more could you ask for?
7. I actually really like Bob Knight as an announcer. Sure he gets stuck on certain ideas and won't let them go, such as shot fakes and not having Eliason or Walker set picks so far away from the basket, but I really like the coach's perspective he brings to being the color man. I know plenty of other announcers are former coaches, but they all seem to have at least shifted some towards "being entertaining" from "being informative" (with varying degrees of success) but Knight is still in coach/educator mode. He's always pointing out positioning on defense or rebounding or discussing plays more in depth than your average guy, and he does it in a deadpan voice that pretty much tells you he's not interested in being your trained monkey there for entertainment. I also like how he kept referring to Walker and Eliason as "the big kids." I don't know. I dig it.
8. Dre Hollins has turned into a turnover machine. And I don't like it one bit. Twelve turnovers in the two tournament games bring his season total to 18 against 19 assists. His assist rate is actually up this year compared to last after plummeting from his sophomore season, which is to be expected with Mathieu on board and taking up most of the point guard minutes, but his turnover rate has absolutely sky rocketed to 27%, worse even than his wild freshman year. The only players in the conference who play major minutes with a worse turnover rate are ball handlers new to the league (Lourawls Nairn (34%), freshman), Tai Webster (30%, his second year), Bishop Daniels (28%, juco transfer)) or big men with questionable handles (A.J. Hammons (28%), Mo Walker (29%), Ross Travis (28%)). I mean, that's a really crappy number. Take that turnover number and add in 41% shooting from the floor and that's an awful lot of wasted possessions. He's in chucker territory. Please stop doing that.
9. I finally made sriracha fried rice and it was awesome. I've had it at a couple of Thai places and it's like, the best thing ever, so I finally decided to give it a shot and I'm damn glad I did. It's one of the most delicious things ever. It's great too, because for the veggies you can just use whatever you have. One time I had green pepper so I used it, another time (yes I made it twice this weekend) we were out of pepper so I used about a quarter bag of frozen peas and it worked out just fine. Here's the recipe. You're welcome.
2 c. cooked rice (I just used minute rice)
2 celery stalks, chopped or slivered
1 carrot, peeled and chopped or slivered
1/2 green pepper, diced
1/4 bag frozen peas
1/4 t dried ginger (if you have fresh it's probably better, I didn't)
1 t toasted sesame oil
2 T soy sauce
2 T sriracha
1-2 garlic cloves
some green onions, chopped with the white and green separated
1. Heat a skillet or wok on medium high until hot, pour in some olive oil and garlic and saute for 30 seconds
2. add the veggies except the green part of the green onion and saute for about 3 minutes
3. add the rice and ginger and saute about 3 minutes, rice should start to change color a little
4. add the soy sauce, sesame oil, and sriracha and mix until everything is combined
5. remove from heat and eat.
So good.
10. This Wake game is the last one that's going to matter for a while. I'm not really sure if Wake Forest is any good (tune in tomorrow) but it's the last threat to the Gophers for about a month, and the last game that will could potentially have any positive impact on the Gophers' future NCAA Tournament resume. The next six games after the Deacons are just brutal. The best teams according to kenpom are teams like Western Carolina, Seattle, and UNC-Wilmington who aren't even contenders in their own conferences and who rank in the mid-200s. The NCAA selection committee doesn't use kenpom at all (I don't think) but I'm pretty sure there's some sort of correlation when it comes to RPI and none of these clown shoes teams are going to help. One huge advantage Tubby's staff had over Pitino's is they had figured out how to make a schedule full of non-threatening games which still kept their SOS and RPI in good shape. i don't think this schedule is going to do that. Which means the Big 10 season is going to be even more important than in previous years, which terrifies me. Beat Wake.
Thursday, May 1, 2014
Thursday Thoughts
- So the "big" news of the day in Gopher land is that the Big 10/ACC Challenge match-ups were announced and the Gophers got screwed. No, it's not Florida State for the 12th time, but they ended up getting slated to go on the road to Wake Forest. Despite finishing 7th in the league, the Gophers get last season's 11th place Demon Deacons who are probably going to be even worse. At the same time, the 6th place Hawkeyes get North Carolina, and Illinois and Indiana, who both finished below the Gophers, get much more favorable match-ups in Miami and Pitt, and last place Purdue got a fun match-up in NC State. This is horseshit.
There are 14 Big Ten teams. There are 15 ACC teams. Should be pretty straight forward, although with the realignment I suppose they had some leeway to play with things, but this is bullshit. No chance in hell Purdue, 12th in the Big Ten, should get NC State, who finished tied for 7th. If things were fair, horrible shit box Virginia Tech sits out (not Notre Dame) and based on records you get:
Virginia vs. Michigan
Louisville vs. Wisconsin
Syracuse vs. Michigan State
Duke vs. Nebraska
UNC vs. Ohio State
Pitt vs. Iowa
Clemson vs. Maryland
NC State vs. Minnesota
FSU vs. Illinois
Miami vs. Indiana
Wake vs. Penn State
Georgia Tech vs. Northwestern
Notre Dame vs. Purdue
BC vs. Rutgers
Way better and much more fair. Fucking NCAA Fascist bastards. Wake sucks, and they might even be worse next year. One of their top bench guys is transferring, and they're losing two starters. It's probably not all bad because their two leading scorers are back and they've got some decent young players, but I'm crabby so I'm bitching because the Gophers clearly got screwed because they're looked at as a bottom tier Big Ten program. Maybe they are but shit, you don't have to out of your way to fucking remind me. I need a drink.
- Going with Knob Creek.
- A little more news that might be of interest to Gopher fans is that Naadir Tharpe is transferring from Kansas. You may remember Tharpe from blogs such as this one because at one point he was ranked #90 overall and the #20 point guard in the country and all things pointed to him being a Gopher. If you don't feel like reading back, Tharpe had a two school list of Minnesota and Rutgers and then Rutgers signed Myles Mack so he canceled his official to Rutgers and the Gophers were in the driver's seat. Then Josiah Turner signed with Arizona (which did not work out well - DUI, kicked off team, transfer, reneg on transfer enter NBA draft, not drafted) which meant Kansas didn't have a point guard in their incoming class so they called Tharpe and about five minutes later, without even a visit, he was a Jayhawk. Once again, I don't need to be reminded constantly how the Gopher program ranks nationally. Thanks again, Tum Tum Nairn (who did almost the same thing).
Now, after 3 so so years in which he's made pretty good progress each year (1ppg/1apg to 6ppg/3apg to 9ppg/5apg) he's out. Kansas is fairly loaded at guard, and Tharpe actually lost his starting spot for a few games, but Tharpe is transferring to be closer to his daughter in Massachusetts (I think) who has been having some health issues. I would assume BC, UMass, and any of those Rhode Island schools are in play, and who knows, maybe UCONN. This is a pretty clear case of somebody who deserves a hardship waiver to be immediately eligible. So he's probably 50/50. The NCAA is neat.
- It's been awfully hard to keep up with the Twins this year considering they never seem to play, when they do it's almost always day games, my vpn trick to make mlb.com think I'm in California so I can watch their games on my computer has stopped working, and the pitching staff is once again horrible. Who could have possibly predicted that trying to upgrade the starters by signing two mediocre or worse starters and resigning a terrible one wouldn't have worked?
The team's starters post an ERA of 6.08, a WHIP of 1.64, a FIP of 4.74, and a xFIP of 4.95, numbers that are second worst, worst, second worst, and worst in the majors and this was coming into the day not even accounting for Pelfrey getting destroyed. Every single one of those numbers is worse than last year. Look at this rotation (ERA/FIP/xFIP/WHIP):
They're clawing around .500 thanks to an offense that has been putting up a shocking amount of runs ranking fifth in the majors, but man does that ever feel like fool's gold. Second in the majors in walks (after finishing 7th last season) should hold up and the team likely will keep putting runners on base, but there feels like to much fluky, timely hitting bringing in all those runs especially since they were a bottom six run scoring team last year. Sam Fuld (who I thought was brought in to be a fifth/sixth outfielder, not an every day starter), Trevor Plouffe, and Chris Colabello are all probably playing way over their heads, and I find it unlikely that Brian Dozier really has the kind of power he's showing so far. Now Joe Mauer and Aaron Hicks should probably be better than they're showing (can you believe Chris Herrmann pinch hit for Hicks today? Talk about a career low point) so it could kind of even out a bit, but if this team's going to do anything it's with pitching. And this pitching sucks. At least
- The Kentucky Derby is this weekend, and I'm always big fan and have given you jerks picks each of the last four years. Four years ago I hit Super Saver and two years ago my wife picked the winner with I'll Have Another, so you know what that means - I'm practically guaranteed to pick the winning horse.
My favorite bet is Intense Holiday at 16/1. He fits the profile of your typical derby winner - solid year at age 2 with improvement at age 3. He's also one of the best closers in the field. If he can stay middle of the pack for most of the race he should be able to make a late charge. Like this horse a lot. Also put down on Danza at 9/1 and Medal Count at 25/1. Danza is coming in hot and is a fast horse, but also has a lot of stamina in his pedigree, could very well be a wire to wire winner. Medal Count is similar to Danza in that he has a lot of stamina, but similar to Intense Holiday in that his best bet is to win with a late charge because he's not as fast as Danza. Long shot to win but I'll take a closer with stamina at 25/1. My kids chose Candy Boy (25/1) because hey, candy, and the wife went with Vicar's in Trouble because "he sounds British." So there you go. I'll probably do some kind of trifecta or exacta or something with my three horses and one of the front runners. Looking to win big this year.
BOATLOADS!
(ended up doing an trifecta box with Danza, Intense Holiday, California Chrome, Commanding Curve, and Wildcat Red)
There are 14 Big Ten teams. There are 15 ACC teams. Should be pretty straight forward, although with the realignment I suppose they had some leeway to play with things, but this is bullshit. No chance in hell Purdue, 12th in the Big Ten, should get NC State, who finished tied for 7th. If things were fair, horrible shit box Virginia Tech sits out (not Notre Dame) and based on records you get:
Virginia vs. Michigan
Louisville vs. Wisconsin
Syracuse vs. Michigan State
Duke vs. Nebraska
UNC vs. Ohio State
Pitt vs. Iowa
Clemson vs. Maryland
NC State vs. Minnesota
FSU vs. Illinois
Miami vs. Indiana
Wake vs. Penn State
Georgia Tech vs. Northwestern
Notre Dame vs. Purdue
BC vs. Rutgers
Way better and much more fair. Fucking NCAA Fascist bastards. Wake sucks, and they might even be worse next year. One of their top bench guys is transferring, and they're losing two starters. It's probably not all bad because their two leading scorers are back and they've got some decent young players, but I'm crabby so I'm bitching because the Gophers clearly got screwed because they're looked at as a bottom tier Big Ten program. Maybe they are but shit, you don't have to out of your way to fucking remind me. I need a drink.
- Going with Knob Creek.
- A little more news that might be of interest to Gopher fans is that Naadir Tharpe is transferring from Kansas. You may remember Tharpe from blogs such as this one because at one point he was ranked #90 overall and the #20 point guard in the country and all things pointed to him being a Gopher. If you don't feel like reading back, Tharpe had a two school list of Minnesota and Rutgers and then Rutgers signed Myles Mack so he canceled his official to Rutgers and the Gophers were in the driver's seat. Then Josiah Turner signed with Arizona (which did not work out well - DUI, kicked off team, transfer, reneg on transfer enter NBA draft, not drafted) which meant Kansas didn't have a point guard in their incoming class so they called Tharpe and about five minutes later, without even a visit, he was a Jayhawk. Once again, I don't need to be reminded constantly how the Gopher program ranks nationally. Thanks again, Tum Tum Nairn (who did almost the same thing).
Now, after 3 so so years in which he's made pretty good progress each year (1ppg/1apg to 6ppg/3apg to 9ppg/5apg) he's out. Kansas is fairly loaded at guard, and Tharpe actually lost his starting spot for a few games, but Tharpe is transferring to be closer to his daughter in Massachusetts (I think) who has been having some health issues. I would assume BC, UMass, and any of those Rhode Island schools are in play, and who knows, maybe UCONN. This is a pretty clear case of somebody who deserves a hardship waiver to be immediately eligible. So he's probably 50/50. The NCAA is neat.
- It's been awfully hard to keep up with the Twins this year considering they never seem to play, when they do it's almost always day games, my vpn trick to make mlb.com think I'm in California so I can watch their games on my computer has stopped working, and the pitching staff is once again horrible. Who could have possibly predicted that trying to upgrade the starters by signing two mediocre or worse starters and resigning a terrible one wouldn't have worked?
The team's starters post an ERA of 6.08, a WHIP of 1.64, a FIP of 4.74, and a xFIP of 4.95, numbers that are second worst, worst, second worst, and worst in the majors and this was coming into the day not even accounting for Pelfrey getting destroyed. Every single one of those numbers is worse than last year. Look at this rotation (ERA/FIP/xFIP/WHIP):
- Ricky Nolasco: 6.67/5.36/4.32/1.75
- Phil Hughes: 5.14/3.42/3.72/1.39
- Kevin Correia: 7.33/4.21/5.24/1.67
- Mike Pelfrey: 7.32/8.22/6.87/1.88
- Kyle Gibson: 4.34/3.55/4.79/1.55
As Ian Malcolm once said, "that is one big pile of shit." Gibson's the only one who has looked halfway decent but his last two outings have been pretty bad and I fear his hot start was mostly fluky. Hughes has been far and away the second best starter on this team so far. Phil Hughes! The good news is most of these guys aren't quite as bad as they've looked since with one exception their FIPs and xFIPS are lower than their ERA, which suggests that either luck or bad defense is making things worse and considering the team's horrendous corner outfielders it could be that, but they aren't suddenly going to get better. The bad news is that Mike Pelfrey might actually be worse than he's looked. Worse!
They're clawing around .500 thanks to an offense that has been putting up a shocking amount of runs ranking fifth in the majors, but man does that ever feel like fool's gold. Second in the majors in walks (after finishing 7th last season) should hold up and the team likely will keep putting runners on base, but there feels like to much fluky, timely hitting bringing in all those runs especially since they were a bottom six run scoring team last year. Sam Fuld (who I thought was brought in to be a fifth/sixth outfielder, not an every day starter), Trevor Plouffe, and Chris Colabello are all probably playing way over their heads, and I find it unlikely that Brian Dozier really has the kind of power he's showing so far. Now Joe Mauer and Aaron Hicks should probably be better than they're showing (can you believe Chris Herrmann pinch hit for Hicks today? Talk about a career low point) so it could kind of even out a bit, but if this team's going to do anything it's with pitching. And this pitching sucks. At least
- The Kentucky Derby is this weekend, and I'm always big fan and have given you jerks picks each of the last four years. Four years ago I hit Super Saver and two years ago my wife picked the winner with I'll Have Another, so you know what that means - I'm practically guaranteed to pick the winning horse.
My favorite bet is Intense Holiday at 16/1. He fits the profile of your typical derby winner - solid year at age 2 with improvement at age 3. He's also one of the best closers in the field. If he can stay middle of the pack for most of the race he should be able to make a late charge. Like this horse a lot. Also put down on Danza at 9/1 and Medal Count at 25/1. Danza is coming in hot and is a fast horse, but also has a lot of stamina in his pedigree, could very well be a wire to wire winner. Medal Count is similar to Danza in that he has a lot of stamina, but similar to Intense Holiday in that his best bet is to win with a late charge because he's not as fast as Danza. Long shot to win but I'll take a closer with stamina at 25/1. My kids chose Candy Boy (25/1) because hey, candy, and the wife went with Vicar's in Trouble because "he sounds British." So there you go. I'll probably do some kind of trifecta or exacta or something with my three horses and one of the front runners. Looking to win big this year.
BOATLOADS!
(ended up doing an trifecta box with Danza, Intense Holiday, California Chrome, Commanding Curve, and Wildcat Red)
Wednesday, September 21, 2011
NCAA Hoops Preview - The ACC
As much as the idea of Syracuse not being in the Big East kind of churns my stomach, the upside that at least there will be a team in the conference capable of challenging UNC and Duke once in a while. I know they've traditionally been the best 2 teams, but things have just been ridiculous lately and might be topping (bottoming) out this year because nearly ever team has been killed by graduations and can't reload like those two nancies, so Duke and UNC are Final Four contenders at the same time you can't definitively point to any other ACC squad and say "that's a tournament team."
So I guess there's that.
1. NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS. For most teams losing a guy like Leslie McDonald for the season to a knee injury would be a big blow, but not this year's Heels. That is basically the only loss they suffered from their roster. Harrison Barnes, last year's #2 recruit and potential top 3 pick in the NBA draft last year, decided to return for another year of seasoning and, after a rough start to his career, began to flourish at the end, scoring 18+ points in 9 of the team's last 10 games. Tyler Zeller is still there and his offensive game is really turning into a thing of beauty, and the defense of John Henson will be there as well to block more shots than jesus. They also have their point guard back in Kendall Marshall, who is already turning into one of the best PGs in UNC History (although nobody will ever be better than Ed Cota). In case you want more, they also bring in a couple of new studs in F James McAdoo (#8 by Rivals) and P.J. Hairston (#13 and called the best shooter in this class), and have a bunch of other former top recruit types from the last couple of years who I haven't even mentioned. Yes, they're loaded. There's a reason why they're 3-1 to win the whole thing (sucker bet).
2. DUKE BLUE DEVILS. Kyrie Irving, Kyle Singler, and Nolan Smith is a huge amount of production and talent to lose, but you know the drill - unfortunately for every one who doesn't worship Satan, they just replace talent with talent are look to once again be one of the best teams in the nation. That isn't to say they won't have some weaknesses, however, because I refuse to believe that no matter how many Plumlees you have (and Duke is now up to 3) those aren't the type of bigs who are going to take you to a National Championship. Not counting, of course, the one they won 2 years ago, but that was really all Brian Zoubek. The three most interesting story lines to me are whether or not Seth Curry can be a team player and not end up a massive chuck monster like his brother, whether or not Austin Rivers (#1 freshman in the country) can integrate himself into a real (and good) team when his whole high school career has been him having to score 40 to carry a lackluster supporting cast, and just how gay is Duke, anyway?
3. MIAMI HURRICANES. The Canes are one of the few teams that were not hit hard by graduations/defections and return a couple of dynamic guards in Durand Scott and Malcolm Grant along with double-double machine Reggie Johnson who pretty much destroyed Duke last year since those pansies can't handle big, strong post players. And I'm sure you remember Scott and Grant, seeing as how they combined for 36 points against the Gophers two seasons ago in Florida completing the teams 3-game collapse after faltering in Anaheim and completely buzzkilling all the good feelings after they beat Butler. Yeah, I hate Miami.
4. VIRGINIA CAVALIERS. Mike Scott and his 16 and 10 averages are back after red-shirting last year due to an injury, and I like their plan of going with Scott and spreading a bunch of shooters out on the floor. And no, it's not just because Virginia shot 10-13 from three last year to kill the Gophers, they legitimately have some good shooters (Joe Harris, K.T. Harrell, and Sammy Zeglinski can all shoot it and both incoming freshmen can hit from outside) and Mike Scott is a legitimate beast. Overall Virginia was 19th in the country in 3-pt percentage and 23rd in % of points coming from behind the line, and that was with Scott only around for 10 games. I don't know. Maybe it is my memories of that game coloring my opinion, but I see the Cavs as a dangerous team this year.
5. FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES. FSU is likely a near guarantee for an NCAA bid because their defense is always so good it's unlikely they'll completely implode, but you can't quite trust them because they are never offensively a good team and this year they don't have a real PG. They didn't last year either and things worked out, but last year they had Chris Singleton (most of the year) and Derwin Kitchen, both of whom could actually score once in a while and both of whom are gone. You know the defense will be there and you know they'll probably beat either UNC or Duke in Tallahassee, but it will be up to the offense whether this is a good team or a very good team. They're bringing in three top 150 recruits, all of whom are supposedly offensive players, so if any of them can get going right away that'll be a big boost. Remember the name Antwan Space. Just do it.
6. CLEMSON TIGERS. Not unlike the Seminoles, Clemson was hit hard by graduation, losing Demontez Stitt (leading scorer and assist man) and Jerai Grant (second leading scorer and leading rebounder) but they are such a solid defensive squad under Brad Brownell that they'll still be in the hunt for an NCAA bid, although at this point in the ACC most of these teams could finish anywhere from 5th to 10th. Still, the Tigers will have some talent including Devin Booker, the younger brother of former Clemson All-ACC performer Trevor. He hasn't quite made the same splash that Trevor did in his first two years, but the potential is probably there I'd assume. And speaking of potential, they actually have a McDonald's All-American on their roster in Milton Jennings. He managed 4 double-doubles last season, which makes Trevor Mbakwe laugh, but he could end up being the x-factor for Clemson. Whatever that means. I don't know, I'm just typing, man.
7. VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES. The Hokies have a couple huge holes to fill, losing both Malcolm Delaney and Jeff Allen who basically did everything for them. Fortunately, the have plenty of options to fill those holes, including two other returning double-digit scorers and a nice big recruiting class that includes some likely future stars - PF C.J. Barksdale, SG Robert Brown, and SF Dorian Finney-Smith are all top 100 on Rivals list with Finney-Smith topping the list at #31. So yeah, there are some big losses for the Hokies, but they might end up better in the long run. They had some serious choke jobs the last couple of years, and Delaney was a big part - mainly because he wanted the ball and everybody knew he was getting the ball. Perhaps a little balance could work in V-Tech's favor? Whatever it takes so we don't have to listen to Seth Greenberg whine about the selection committee again. My least favorite spring ritual.
8. NC STATE WOLFPACK. Losing Tracy Smith is tough, but losing both your point guards - including emerging star Ryan Harrow (who transferred to Kentucky after the coaching change from Lowe to Gottfried) is going to be tougher. State still has one of the most exciting players in the conference in PF C.J. Leslie, who was the #14 recruit in the nation his freshman year and averaged 11 & 7, along with a couple of other nice players in SG Lorenzo Brown (#37 last year) and dead-eye shooter Scott Wood so they'll be middle of the road with some chances to surprise people. If Brown can handle the point - or incoming CS-Bakersfield transfer guy can - they could finish significantly higher than this. I really love me some C.J. Leslie.
9. GEORGIA TECH YELLOW JACKETS. Do you think Glen Rice Jr. might have to look at a picture or two of Sarah Palin when Tech travels to Cameron or the Dean Dome or really anywhere? Hopefully for them he'll be able to block it out, because he's going to be the main offensive weapon on this team and has the talent and situation to potentially blossom into an All-ACC type of player, particularly with Iman Shumpert leaving for the NBA and Brian Oliver transferring to Seton Hall. Maybe the best news for Tech, however, is that Paul Hewitt is finally gone because even though he was a hell of a recruiter the guy was routinely out coached and over matched. Brian Gregory turned the garbage dumpster of Dayton into something reasonably mediocre and Tech is a much better program so he'll likely have them turned around sooner rather than later.
10. MARYLAND TERRAPINS. Yet another team that got hit hard by graduation, not only did Maryland lose a ton off last year's team but when Gary Williams decided to quit coaching an a pretty inopportune time like some kind of sweaty rhinoceros he didn't do the team any favors because most of the recruits he'd signed, and there were some good ones, jumped ship. They did manage to hold on to Nick Faust, a hometown kid who is a very good player (#48 rivals) and will make this team's strength - the back court - even stronger. The biggest questions will be on the interior. With the beast that was Jordan Williams and his double-double average off to the NBA and no notable additions with size, they'll have to turn to unproven upperclassmen to play in the paint. That always works well.
11. WAKE FOREST DEMON DEACONS. Wake might have been the worst major conference team in 300 years last season, so they can only get better. You'd think. Unfortunately lack of talent continues to meet up with knuckleheadism, with former top 100 recruit J.T. Terrell leaving the team after getting arrested for a DWI and fellow top 100 recruit Melvin Tabb currently suspended indefinitely for some ambiguous reason. The one big bright spot is SF Travis McKie who led the team in both scoring and rebounding last season. And this is where I'd write a sentence to tie all of that together, but every time I tried to watch a Wake game last year they were losing by 25 in the first half so I didn't really pay all that much attention.
12. BOSTON COLLEGE EAGLES. I don't know that I've ever seen something this dramatic, and it's hard to believe in this conference this year, but the Eagles come into this season with 92% of last year's scoring gone. 92%, yo. That means I got a 92% chance of embarrassing myself. I'll roll up on some shorty and be like "whats' up, yo" and she'll be like, "you don't know 20 ways to make me call you big poppa" because I don't, yo. I just typed that from memory so it might not be dead on but it's definitely close. Anyway, BC has 9 freshmen this year and I've never heard of any of them and they aren't on any lists so let's be honest, the quote was a much better use of our time.
Other Previews:
Big 12
So I guess there's that.
1. NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS. For most teams losing a guy like Leslie McDonald for the season to a knee injury would be a big blow, but not this year's Heels. That is basically the only loss they suffered from their roster. Harrison Barnes, last year's #2 recruit and potential top 3 pick in the NBA draft last year, decided to return for another year of seasoning and, after a rough start to his career, began to flourish at the end, scoring 18+ points in 9 of the team's last 10 games. Tyler Zeller is still there and his offensive game is really turning into a thing of beauty, and the defense of John Henson will be there as well to block more shots than jesus. They also have their point guard back in Kendall Marshall, who is already turning into one of the best PGs in UNC History (although nobody will ever be better than Ed Cota). In case you want more, they also bring in a couple of new studs in F James McAdoo (#8 by Rivals) and P.J. Hairston (#13 and called the best shooter in this class), and have a bunch of other former top recruit types from the last couple of years who I haven't even mentioned. Yes, they're loaded. There's a reason why they're 3-1 to win the whole thing (sucker bet).
2. DUKE BLUE DEVILS. Kyrie Irving, Kyle Singler, and Nolan Smith is a huge amount of production and talent to lose, but you know the drill - unfortunately for every one who doesn't worship Satan, they just replace talent with talent are look to once again be one of the best teams in the nation. That isn't to say they won't have some weaknesses, however, because I refuse to believe that no matter how many Plumlees you have (and Duke is now up to 3) those aren't the type of bigs who are going to take you to a National Championship. Not counting, of course, the one they won 2 years ago, but that was really all Brian Zoubek. The three most interesting story lines to me are whether or not Seth Curry can be a team player and not end up a massive chuck monster like his brother, whether or not Austin Rivers (#1 freshman in the country) can integrate himself into a real (and good) team when his whole high school career has been him having to score 40 to carry a lackluster supporting cast, and just how gay is Duke, anyway?
3. MIAMI HURRICANES. The Canes are one of the few teams that were not hit hard by graduations/defections and return a couple of dynamic guards in Durand Scott and Malcolm Grant along with double-double machine Reggie Johnson who pretty much destroyed Duke last year since those pansies can't handle big, strong post players. And I'm sure you remember Scott and Grant, seeing as how they combined for 36 points against the Gophers two seasons ago in Florida completing the teams 3-game collapse after faltering in Anaheim and completely buzzkilling all the good feelings after they beat Butler. Yeah, I hate Miami.
4. VIRGINIA CAVALIERS. Mike Scott and his 16 and 10 averages are back after red-shirting last year due to an injury, and I like their plan of going with Scott and spreading a bunch of shooters out on the floor. And no, it's not just because Virginia shot 10-13 from three last year to kill the Gophers, they legitimately have some good shooters (Joe Harris, K.T. Harrell, and Sammy Zeglinski can all shoot it and both incoming freshmen can hit from outside) and Mike Scott is a legitimate beast. Overall Virginia was 19th in the country in 3-pt percentage and 23rd in % of points coming from behind the line, and that was with Scott only around for 10 games. I don't know. Maybe it is my memories of that game coloring my opinion, but I see the Cavs as a dangerous team this year.
5. FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES. FSU is likely a near guarantee for an NCAA bid because their defense is always so good it's unlikely they'll completely implode, but you can't quite trust them because they are never offensively a good team and this year they don't have a real PG. They didn't last year either and things worked out, but last year they had Chris Singleton (most of the year) and Derwin Kitchen, both of whom could actually score once in a while and both of whom are gone. You know the defense will be there and you know they'll probably beat either UNC or Duke in Tallahassee, but it will be up to the offense whether this is a good team or a very good team. They're bringing in three top 150 recruits, all of whom are supposedly offensive players, so if any of them can get going right away that'll be a big boost. Remember the name Antwan Space. Just do it.
6. CLEMSON TIGERS. Not unlike the Seminoles, Clemson was hit hard by graduation, losing Demontez Stitt (leading scorer and assist man) and Jerai Grant (second leading scorer and leading rebounder) but they are such a solid defensive squad under Brad Brownell that they'll still be in the hunt for an NCAA bid, although at this point in the ACC most of these teams could finish anywhere from 5th to 10th. Still, the Tigers will have some talent including Devin Booker, the younger brother of former Clemson All-ACC performer Trevor. He hasn't quite made the same splash that Trevor did in his first two years, but the potential is probably there I'd assume. And speaking of potential, they actually have a McDonald's All-American on their roster in Milton Jennings. He managed 4 double-doubles last season, which makes Trevor Mbakwe laugh, but he could end up being the x-factor for Clemson. Whatever that means. I don't know, I'm just typing, man.
7. VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES. The Hokies have a couple huge holes to fill, losing both Malcolm Delaney and Jeff Allen who basically did everything for them. Fortunately, the have plenty of options to fill those holes, including two other returning double-digit scorers and a nice big recruiting class that includes some likely future stars - PF C.J. Barksdale, SG Robert Brown, and SF Dorian Finney-Smith are all top 100 on Rivals list with Finney-Smith topping the list at #31. So yeah, there are some big losses for the Hokies, but they might end up better in the long run. They had some serious choke jobs the last couple of years, and Delaney was a big part - mainly because he wanted the ball and everybody knew he was getting the ball. Perhaps a little balance could work in V-Tech's favor? Whatever it takes so we don't have to listen to Seth Greenberg whine about the selection committee again. My least favorite spring ritual.
8. NC STATE WOLFPACK. Losing Tracy Smith is tough, but losing both your point guards - including emerging star Ryan Harrow (who transferred to Kentucky after the coaching change from Lowe to Gottfried) is going to be tougher. State still has one of the most exciting players in the conference in PF C.J. Leslie, who was the #14 recruit in the nation his freshman year and averaged 11 & 7, along with a couple of other nice players in SG Lorenzo Brown (#37 last year) and dead-eye shooter Scott Wood so they'll be middle of the road with some chances to surprise people. If Brown can handle the point - or incoming CS-Bakersfield transfer guy can - they could finish significantly higher than this. I really love me some C.J. Leslie.
9. GEORGIA TECH YELLOW JACKETS. Do you think Glen Rice Jr. might have to look at a picture or two of Sarah Palin when Tech travels to Cameron or the Dean Dome or really anywhere? Hopefully for them he'll be able to block it out, because he's going to be the main offensive weapon on this team and has the talent and situation to potentially blossom into an All-ACC type of player, particularly with Iman Shumpert leaving for the NBA and Brian Oliver transferring to Seton Hall. Maybe the best news for Tech, however, is that Paul Hewitt is finally gone because even though he was a hell of a recruiter the guy was routinely out coached and over matched. Brian Gregory turned the garbage dumpster of Dayton into something reasonably mediocre and Tech is a much better program so he'll likely have them turned around sooner rather than later.
10. MARYLAND TERRAPINS. Yet another team that got hit hard by graduation, not only did Maryland lose a ton off last year's team but when Gary Williams decided to quit coaching an a pretty inopportune time like some kind of sweaty rhinoceros he didn't do the team any favors because most of the recruits he'd signed, and there were some good ones, jumped ship. They did manage to hold on to Nick Faust, a hometown kid who is a very good player (#48 rivals) and will make this team's strength - the back court - even stronger. The biggest questions will be on the interior. With the beast that was Jordan Williams and his double-double average off to the NBA and no notable additions with size, they'll have to turn to unproven upperclassmen to play in the paint. That always works well.
11. WAKE FOREST DEMON DEACONS. Wake might have been the worst major conference team in 300 years last season, so they can only get better. You'd think. Unfortunately lack of talent continues to meet up with knuckleheadism, with former top 100 recruit J.T. Terrell leaving the team after getting arrested for a DWI and fellow top 100 recruit Melvin Tabb currently suspended indefinitely for some ambiguous reason. The one big bright spot is SF Travis McKie who led the team in both scoring and rebounding last season. And this is where I'd write a sentence to tie all of that together, but every time I tried to watch a Wake game last year they were losing by 25 in the first half so I didn't really pay all that much attention.
12. BOSTON COLLEGE EAGLES. I don't know that I've ever seen something this dramatic, and it's hard to believe in this conference this year, but the Eagles come into this season with 92% of last year's scoring gone. 92%, yo. That means I got a 92% chance of embarrassing myself. I'll roll up on some shorty and be like "whats' up, yo" and she'll be like, "you don't know 20 ways to make me call you big poppa" because I don't, yo. I just typed that from memory so it might not be dead on but it's definitely close. Anyway, BC has 9 freshmen this year and I've never heard of any of them and they aren't on any lists so let's be honest, the quote was a much better use of our time.
Other Previews:
Big 12
Monday, March 1, 2010
Week in Review - 3/1/2010
Well that was a pretty good win. Not good as in pretty, or good as in they finally figured out how to close out a game, but good as in that was a season saver. I can't really give you the usual brilliant, in-depth analysis you've come to expect because I was watching the game while at a beer bust, but I saw enough to know my prediction of a big gopher lead early, a gopher lead late, and a Illinois comeback and win damn near came true. That's not the important thing, however. The important thing is that they did get this win, and now are in ok shape for a tournament bid, even showing up on the "last four out" for Joe Lunardi. Win at Michigan and beat Iowa here, then win one big ten tournament game and it's very interesting.
If you just compare the Gophers and Illinois quick, they have basically the same record, although Illinois is two games better in conference play. The Gophers have the better RPI (70 to 74) and better Strength of Schedule (37 to 61). Both teams have two wins over top 25 RPI teams, while Illinois has a total of four over top 50 teams compared to just three for the Gophers and they have nearly identical records against the top 100. The Gophers have three bad losses (vs. teams over 100 in the RPI) while Illinois has two. The Gophers are 4-8 in road/neutral games, while Illinois is 6-8. The best win by either of the two teams goes to the Gophers with their win over Butler, and both team's have beaten Wisconsin.
I know the bids supposedly don't compare teams within the conference like this and look at the team's as an overall whole, but it's useful to know where the Gophers stand in comparison to the Illini. It also serves as a depressing reminder that if you reverse almost any loss on the Gopher schedule, they are ahead of Illinois, but as it stands right now they are probably slightly behind. In any case, it's time to win. There's no room for error.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Notre Dame. Bill Simmons' Ewing Theory in full effect? Seriously, has anybody has as impressive a week all year as Notre Dame had this week? They beat both Pitt and Georgetown, both by double-digits, and have gone from "probably out" to "probably in" all in a four day span - and they've done it without Luke Harangody. Since he's been out it's just been a bunch of role-players just used to deferring to him, but maybe we're finding out they aren't role players (even if Tory Jackson has the decision-making skills of a rock). Ben Hansbrough has stepped up his scoring since Harangody went out, averaging 15 per game (compared to 12), but the guy who has really helped out is junior forward Carleton Scott, who is averaging 9.3 points and 6.3 rebounds per game since the injury compared to 3.5 of each beforehand. Basically the Irish have played really well since Luke went down, and now find themselves in good shape for an NCAA bid. Which means he'll come back next week, they'll lose two, bow out early in the Big East tournament, and find themselves in the NIT again.
2. Syracuse. Wow. And also, wow. What an impressive victory over Villanova, the alleged #8 team in the land. The Orange smoked Scottie Reynolds and the rest of those dorks 95-77 which followed up their road win earlier in the week over Providence. To go out and annihilate another top ten team like the Wildcats is impressive, and I'm starting to think the Orange are the team to beat in March. I was pretty clearly wrong about Wes Johnson, who is an absolute stud, and I think Andy Rautins used my criticism of him from last year as a motivational tool because he's somehow become a top flight point guard and he's not even a point guard. I was talking to a friend who is a Syracuse alum, and he said that this isn't the Cuse's most talented team, but it is their best. He said usually they have a focal point guy who a lot of times undermines the whole team concept - it worked with Carmelo, didn't with Donte Greene - but this year it's just seven guys who have bought in to the team concept. Really good team. Right now, they're probably my #1.
3. New Mexico. If you kind of thought New Mexico wasn't anything special and just kept rising in the polls because they were basically just chillin' in the Mountain West, you aren't alone. If you still think that, you're an idiot. The Lobos put the word out that they are the real deal, going into Provo and beat BYU 83-81, the Cougars first home loss this year and one of only a handful the last few years. The win clinches at least a tie for the MWC crown for the Lobos, and brings New Mexico to 6-0 this year against ranked teams. That's right, 6-0. They've beaten BYU twice, UNLV, Cal, Texas Tech, and Texas A&M, and also have wins over decent teams like Dayton, Louisiana Tech, and New Mexico State. Three of this team's top four players are of the 6-5 to 6-8 athletic wing types, and the other dude gives them the strong and experience point play you need in March. This team is a threat.
4. Marquette. Now this is how a bubble team is supposed to respond to a challenge in late March. Marquette was probably right in the middle of the bubble, but with two wins this week, both on the road, both in overtime, and one over fellow bubble team Seton Hall, they're probably in for sure. First, the Eagles beat St. John's in their place 63-61 on a Jimmy Butler jumper as time expired in overtime, and then they went to Seton Hall and knocked the Pirates out of NCAA contention 84-83. I didn't expect much out of Marquette this year, not after losing three starting guards who were basically the whole team, but Lazar Hayward has gotten even better and Butler and Darius Johnson-Odom are very good players. And Marquette is probably better than the 19-9 record would indicate. Other than an inexplicable loss to DePaul and an early season loss to NC State every loss on the record has been by single-digits to an NCAA-caliber team.
5. Tay Waller. I know you don't know who this is, but that's why I'm here, to be nerdy enough about college hoops to know who people like Tay Waller are. And also he's on my fantasy team, which has now made the finals. Anyway, Waller had a big week but you won't hear about because he plays for crappy Auburn. The 6-2 senior guard for the Tigers was a top 10 JuCo player back in 2008 coming out of NW Florida Community College, and after being pretty solid for his year and three-quarters (way better than Bostick) he's really hit his stride, scoring more than 26 in each of Auburn's last three games, scoring 29 against Ole Miss in a loss and then 26 to lead the Tigers to a win over LSU this week. He's not on any NBA radars or anything, but he'll probably end up making a nice living overseas, and he deserves to be recognized even if he plays for the shitbox that is the Auburn Tigers. Plus, he probably gets to roll around with broads like these all the time.
WHO SUCKED
1. Wake Forest. Probably the worst week any team has had in the history of basketball. No joke. The Demon Deacons started off the week by losing at ACC bottom-feeder North Carolina State, and then followed that up by getting embarrassed at home by the embarrassing Carolina Tar Heels. To put this in Big Ten terms, that would be like losing at Indiana and then losing at home to Michigan. [NOTE: I just realized what I did there. hahahahahahahahahaha kill me.] And I had the misfortune to watch a good chunk of that Carolina game, and holy crap is Wake awful. I've never seen a team play so lazily and selfishly all at the same time. It was like watching five Westbrooks. I refuse to believe this team is 8-6 in the ACC, and was 8-3 at one point. This is a first-round upset waiting to happen, I don't care if they draw Bethune-Cookman in round one.
2. John Wall. Has the phenom hit the proverbial wall? His raw numbers are ok - 12 pts, 5 rebounds, 4 assists in a 20-point win over South Carolina and 19-5-6 in the loss to Tennessee, but if you look deeper he had a pretty sub-par week. He shot just 10-31 overall and was 0-7 from three-point range, and he turned the ball over 11 times in the two games - yes, that's more turnovers than field goals made this week. And although he has always been a bit of a turnover machine (averaging 4.0 per game) his shooting is what would really concern me - he hasn't shot better than 50% in a game since February 2nd. Maybe it's just a simple fluctuation of his numbers, but if I was a Kentucky fan I'd be pretty concerned that he seems to be struggling a bit at this time of the year. In any case, there's no way a team this young (three of the top four players are freshmen) and this volatile (both Cousins and Wall are crazy) with that coach is going to the final four. You go ahead and pick them there, but they're going to get knocked off by some seven seed. Just watch.
3. Virginia Tech. When your hopes for an at-large bid are best described as "little margin for error and only in decent shape because of an impressive ACC record" one thing you really shouldn't do is go out the next week and drop two ACC games - one at home (to Maryland) and one to a bottom-tier team (Boston College). The Hokies are still 21-7 overall and 8-6 in conference play, but there's not a whole lot to be impressed with. They have a win over Clemson, one over Wake, and a non-conference win over Seton Hall, and that's it. Everything else is against a bottom tier team. I don't know what to think about their chances, they're a super confusing team. You could make a pretty good argument spanning anywhere from "they should be easily in" to "they have no chance." Take your pick.
4. The Atlantic 10. Going into this week there were seven teams in the A-10 that had a shot at getting an at-large bid to the tournament, but things are not breaking the right way and it's starting to look more and more likely that the conference will end up with three teams going (Temple, Xavier, and Richmond are all basically locks). Dayton is probably fourth on the list, but at 8-6 in the conference might not have enough juice, and they had a huge chance to knock of Temple this week and whiffed. Another team that had a chance at a big upset and missed out was St. Louis, who has a nice 10-4 conference record but is lacking big wins, which makes their loss to Xavier this week even more damaging. Charlotte and Rhode Island both looked to have an inside track at a bid earlier this year, but both have faded coming down the stretch and both knocked themselves out of bid contention with losses they couldn't have this weekend - Charlotte lost to George Washington, Rhode Island to St. Bonaventure. So the A-10 will likely have just three teams dancing, maybe four if Dayton gets it together, which isn't bad, but isn't as lofty as it could have been. Also, Richmond and Temple are going down quickly, Xavier is the only team here that can make a run. Mark it down.
5. Purdue. Ruh roh. You kind of had to wonder just how the Boilers would respond with Robbie Hummel out. They still have E'Twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson which still gives them one of the better 1-2 punches in the country, but Hummel was kind of the glue guy, along with being a top scorer. They certainly didn't have any time to ease into, welcoming Michigan State to Keady Court right off the bat, and the results weren't pretty. The only managed 44 points, shot just 30%, and were out-rebounded 44-16 as the Spartans won 53-44. Yes by the way, those numbers are correct they were out-rebounded 44-16. I think they'll end up being a lot better without Hummel than they showed on Sunday, and they have games against Penn State and Indiana this coming week to work on some things, but this has to be a pretty big concern for Boiler Nation.
I guess there was also some kind of big whoopity-doo hockey game between the Americans and the Commies or something, but I didn't really pay attention. I heard the commies won, so I expect Canada to start taking over Red Dawn style anytime now. WOLVERINES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (but not on Tuesday)
BUBBLE GAMES OF NOTE:
Fresno State @ Utah State. I've written about them before, but the beat rolls on. USU needs to win and keep winning. Even at 23-6 they can't really afford a loss because, outside of a win over BYU, there's not much there in the non-conference profile. They would probably be ok if they lost in the WAC final to either New Mexico State or Louisiana Tech, but any loss short of that will keep likely knock them out of at-large consideration
If you just compare the Gophers and Illinois quick, they have basically the same record, although Illinois is two games better in conference play. The Gophers have the better RPI (70 to 74) and better Strength of Schedule (37 to 61). Both teams have two wins over top 25 RPI teams, while Illinois has a total of four over top 50 teams compared to just three for the Gophers and they have nearly identical records against the top 100. The Gophers have three bad losses (vs. teams over 100 in the RPI) while Illinois has two. The Gophers are 4-8 in road/neutral games, while Illinois is 6-8. The best win by either of the two teams goes to the Gophers with their win over Butler, and both team's have beaten Wisconsin.
I know the bids supposedly don't compare teams within the conference like this and look at the team's as an overall whole, but it's useful to know where the Gophers stand in comparison to the Illini. It also serves as a depressing reminder that if you reverse almost any loss on the Gopher schedule, they are ahead of Illinois, but as it stands right now they are probably slightly behind. In any case, it's time to win. There's no room for error.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Notre Dame. Bill Simmons' Ewing Theory in full effect? Seriously, has anybody has as impressive a week all year as Notre Dame had this week? They beat both Pitt and Georgetown, both by double-digits, and have gone from "probably out" to "probably in" all in a four day span - and they've done it without Luke Harangody. Since he's been out it's just been a bunch of role-players just used to deferring to him, but maybe we're finding out they aren't role players (even if Tory Jackson has the decision-making skills of a rock). Ben Hansbrough has stepped up his scoring since Harangody went out, averaging 15 per game (compared to 12), but the guy who has really helped out is junior forward Carleton Scott, who is averaging 9.3 points and 6.3 rebounds per game since the injury compared to 3.5 of each beforehand. Basically the Irish have played really well since Luke went down, and now find themselves in good shape for an NCAA bid. Which means he'll come back next week, they'll lose two, bow out early in the Big East tournament, and find themselves in the NIT again.
2. Syracuse. Wow. And also, wow. What an impressive victory over Villanova, the alleged #8 team in the land. The Orange smoked Scottie Reynolds and the rest of those dorks 95-77 which followed up their road win earlier in the week over Providence. To go out and annihilate another top ten team like the Wildcats is impressive, and I'm starting to think the Orange are the team to beat in March. I was pretty clearly wrong about Wes Johnson, who is an absolute stud, and I think Andy Rautins used my criticism of him from last year as a motivational tool because he's somehow become a top flight point guard and he's not even a point guard. I was talking to a friend who is a Syracuse alum, and he said that this isn't the Cuse's most talented team, but it is their best. He said usually they have a focal point guy who a lot of times undermines the whole team concept - it worked with Carmelo, didn't with Donte Greene - but this year it's just seven guys who have bought in to the team concept. Really good team. Right now, they're probably my #1.
3. New Mexico. If you kind of thought New Mexico wasn't anything special and just kept rising in the polls because they were basically just chillin' in the Mountain West, you aren't alone. If you still think that, you're an idiot. The Lobos put the word out that they are the real deal, going into Provo and beat BYU 83-81, the Cougars first home loss this year and one of only a handful the last few years. The win clinches at least a tie for the MWC crown for the Lobos, and brings New Mexico to 6-0 this year against ranked teams. That's right, 6-0. They've beaten BYU twice, UNLV, Cal, Texas Tech, and Texas A&M, and also have wins over decent teams like Dayton, Louisiana Tech, and New Mexico State. Three of this team's top four players are of the 6-5 to 6-8 athletic wing types, and the other dude gives them the strong and experience point play you need in March. This team is a threat.
4. Marquette. Now this is how a bubble team is supposed to respond to a challenge in late March. Marquette was probably right in the middle of the bubble, but with two wins this week, both on the road, both in overtime, and one over fellow bubble team Seton Hall, they're probably in for sure. First, the Eagles beat St. John's in their place 63-61 on a Jimmy Butler jumper as time expired in overtime, and then they went to Seton Hall and knocked the Pirates out of NCAA contention 84-83. I didn't expect much out of Marquette this year, not after losing three starting guards who were basically the whole team, but Lazar Hayward has gotten even better and Butler and Darius Johnson-Odom are very good players. And Marquette is probably better than the 19-9 record would indicate. Other than an inexplicable loss to DePaul and an early season loss to NC State every loss on the record has been by single-digits to an NCAA-caliber team.
5. Tay Waller. I know you don't know who this is, but that's why I'm here, to be nerdy enough about college hoops to know who people like Tay Waller are. And also he's on my fantasy team, which has now made the finals. Anyway, Waller had a big week but you won't hear about because he plays for crappy Auburn. The 6-2 senior guard for the Tigers was a top 10 JuCo player back in 2008 coming out of NW Florida Community College, and after being pretty solid for his year and three-quarters (way better than Bostick) he's really hit his stride, scoring more than 26 in each of Auburn's last three games, scoring 29 against Ole Miss in a loss and then 26 to lead the Tigers to a win over LSU this week. He's not on any NBA radars or anything, but he'll probably end up making a nice living overseas, and he deserves to be recognized even if he plays for the shitbox that is the Auburn Tigers. Plus, he probably gets to roll around with broads like these all the time.
WHO SUCKED
1. Wake Forest. Probably the worst week any team has had in the history of basketball. No joke. The Demon Deacons started off the week by losing at ACC bottom-feeder North Carolina State, and then followed that up by getting embarrassed at home by the embarrassing Carolina Tar Heels. To put this in Big Ten terms, that would be like losing at Indiana and then losing at home to Michigan. [NOTE: I just realized what I did there. hahahahahahahahahaha kill me.] And I had the misfortune to watch a good chunk of that Carolina game, and holy crap is Wake awful. I've never seen a team play so lazily and selfishly all at the same time. It was like watching five Westbrooks. I refuse to believe this team is 8-6 in the ACC, and was 8-3 at one point. This is a first-round upset waiting to happen, I don't care if they draw Bethune-Cookman in round one.
2. John Wall. Has the phenom hit the proverbial wall? His raw numbers are ok - 12 pts, 5 rebounds, 4 assists in a 20-point win over South Carolina and 19-5-6 in the loss to Tennessee, but if you look deeper he had a pretty sub-par week. He shot just 10-31 overall and was 0-7 from three-point range, and he turned the ball over 11 times in the two games - yes, that's more turnovers than field goals made this week. And although he has always been a bit of a turnover machine (averaging 4.0 per game) his shooting is what would really concern me - he hasn't shot better than 50% in a game since February 2nd. Maybe it's just a simple fluctuation of his numbers, but if I was a Kentucky fan I'd be pretty concerned that he seems to be struggling a bit at this time of the year. In any case, there's no way a team this young (three of the top four players are freshmen) and this volatile (both Cousins and Wall are crazy) with that coach is going to the final four. You go ahead and pick them there, but they're going to get knocked off by some seven seed. Just watch.
3. Virginia Tech. When your hopes for an at-large bid are best described as "little margin for error and only in decent shape because of an impressive ACC record" one thing you really shouldn't do is go out the next week and drop two ACC games - one at home (to Maryland) and one to a bottom-tier team (Boston College). The Hokies are still 21-7 overall and 8-6 in conference play, but there's not a whole lot to be impressed with. They have a win over Clemson, one over Wake, and a non-conference win over Seton Hall, and that's it. Everything else is against a bottom tier team. I don't know what to think about their chances, they're a super confusing team. You could make a pretty good argument spanning anywhere from "they should be easily in" to "they have no chance." Take your pick.
4. The Atlantic 10. Going into this week there were seven teams in the A-10 that had a shot at getting an at-large bid to the tournament, but things are not breaking the right way and it's starting to look more and more likely that the conference will end up with three teams going (Temple, Xavier, and Richmond are all basically locks). Dayton is probably fourth on the list, but at 8-6 in the conference might not have enough juice, and they had a huge chance to knock of Temple this week and whiffed. Another team that had a chance at a big upset and missed out was St. Louis, who has a nice 10-4 conference record but is lacking big wins, which makes their loss to Xavier this week even more damaging. Charlotte and Rhode Island both looked to have an inside track at a bid earlier this year, but both have faded coming down the stretch and both knocked themselves out of bid contention with losses they couldn't have this weekend - Charlotte lost to George Washington, Rhode Island to St. Bonaventure. So the A-10 will likely have just three teams dancing, maybe four if Dayton gets it together, which isn't bad, but isn't as lofty as it could have been. Also, Richmond and Temple are going down quickly, Xavier is the only team here that can make a run. Mark it down.
5. Purdue. Ruh roh. You kind of had to wonder just how the Boilers would respond with Robbie Hummel out. They still have E'Twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson which still gives them one of the better 1-2 punches in the country, but Hummel was kind of the glue guy, along with being a top scorer. They certainly didn't have any time to ease into, welcoming Michigan State to Keady Court right off the bat, and the results weren't pretty. The only managed 44 points, shot just 30%, and were out-rebounded 44-16 as the Spartans won 53-44. Yes by the way, those numbers are correct they were out-rebounded 44-16. I think they'll end up being a lot better without Hummel than they showed on Sunday, and they have games against Penn State and Indiana this coming week to work on some things, but this has to be a pretty big concern for Boiler Nation.
I guess there was also some kind of big whoopity-doo hockey game between the Americans and the Commies or something, but I didn't really pay attention. I heard the commies won, so I expect Canada to start taking over Red Dawn style anytime now. WOLVERINES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (but not on Tuesday)
BUBBLE GAMES OF NOTE:
Fresno State @ Utah State. I've written about them before, but the beat rolls on. USU needs to win and keep winning. Even at 23-6 they can't really afford a loss because, outside of a win over BYU, there's not much there in the non-conference profile. They would probably be ok if they lost in the WAC final to either New Mexico State or Louisiana Tech, but any loss short of that will keep likely knock them out of at-large consideration
Friday, October 9, 2009
College Basketball Preview: ACC
Remember at the end of the Mountain West Review where I said I was going to get less fact, number, and research intensive? Yeah, I'm still going to keep that going. It's much easier for me, and probably a better read for you. Plus, it lessons the chances of me getting attacked by rabid fans of whichever conference I review, and my feelings are already a little bruised after a Dayton fan said I probably live in a trailer. I'm still trying to get over that one. Why don't people realize that words hurt?
1. Duke. More like Puke, am I right? Seriously I hate putting these guys first, I just hate it, but I think they're the team to beat while the Heels figure out their new team. In a bit of a switch, the Devils will be thin in the back court this season, with just Nolan Smith, Jon Scheyer, and graduated from high school a year early guy and big time recruit Andre Dawkins. Luckily for them they have a whole bunch of big tall white guys who like to play on the perimeter and are comfortable handling the ball, as usual, so lack of guard depth shouldn't hurt in the half court, at least. That group includes Kyle Singler, the preseason favorite for ACC Player of the Year.
2. North Carolina. Losing Hansbrough, Lawson, Ellington, and Green gives the Heels a lot to replace, but as you would expect there's a whole other group here ready to step in. How good can Ed Davis be? We'll find out. I remember last recruiting season it was Ed Davis this and Ed Davis that and blah blah blah. He will be counted on to be a big part of the offense. The Heels recruiting class is loaded, with all five guys in the Rivals top 70. Carolina will be loaded with big guys, with leading returning scorer Deon Thompson back, Davis, and three of the recruits 6-10 or bigger, headlined by John Henson who was described by Athlon as a "game-changing talent." The key might be PG Larry Drew, the only real PG on the roster and a top recruit two seasons ago who was sheltered behind Lawson.
3. Georgia Tech. "Georgia Tech?" is probably what you are saying right now, but you best believe the Jackets are ready to make a run. They bring in an outstanding recruiting class, including Rivals #3 overall Derrick Favors, a 6-9 center out of Georgia and the next Ralph Sampson III, as well as two guys the Gophers were looking at: PG Mfon Udofia (#32) and Glen Rice, Jr. (#45). With Gani Lawal's surprise decision to not enter the NBA draft and Iman Shumpert also back, the Jackets have as much talent as anybody (well, other than UNC or Duke). Sadly, there is not a point guard from NYC on the roster, but one of the other newcomers this year is named Brian Oliver, so they got that going for them.
4. Maryland. Grievis Vasquez is still around?!!?!?! Guy is on the Wade Lookingbill/Brian Cardinal program apparently - except he's talented. Very talented, very good all-around player, and a flat-out stud, as shown by his triple-double against North Carolina last year, as well as several other near triple doubles. The Terps have almost everybody back from last year, but don't have a secondary star to compliment Vasquez. If one of the returners or top 100 recruit Jordan Williams can elevate their game to help him, Maryland might have a sweet 16 run in them.
5. Clemson. It's tough to know what to make of the Tigers. Losing both K.C. Rivers and his-range-starts-when-he-enters-the-gym-type Terrence Oglesby weakens their perimeter, but they still bring back superstud post player Trevor Booker. He can not only score, but he's one of the best rebounders in the country. McDonald's All-American Milton Jennings joins up to help solidify the paint, but, like UNC, point guard play will determine how far Clemson can go. Hopefully Oglesby enjoys Europe, his loss certainly weakens their hopes.
6. Florida State. Toney Douglas is gone. Wow, how weird is that? Dude seemed like he had been around forever, but I never got sick of him - now the Seminoles need to start life without him and they have a pretty good base to work from. As usual they will still have a bunch of athletes, starting with 6-9 wing Chris Singleton and 7-1 beast inside Soloman Alabi. Perhaps most exciting, however, is #7 recruit in the country Michael Snaer, a combo guard who was the California Player of the Year, will be lacing them up for FSU despite offers from UCLA and Kansas. He should give Henson and Favors a run for ACC Freshman of the Year, and gives the Seminoles a chance to win on any night.
7. Virginia Tech. This is a team that I can see ending up higher than 7th, but right now I'm putting them here because this is where they ended up and I don't feel like cutting and pasting anything right now. They lose their leading scorer in A.D. Vassallo, but returning guard Malcolm Delaney is a pimp and forward Jeff Allen is a beast down low, giving them an excellent inside-outside tandem. The Hokies have been an NIT staple the last few years (other than '07), but if those two can get a little help from someone else the NCAA Tournament is certainly within reach.
8. Wake Forest. Last year the Demon Deacons raced out to a 16-0 record and a #1 ranking in the polls before coming back to earth and then flaming out in the NCAA tournament with a first round loss to Cleveland State. This year they will have a tougher road ahead, losing their two leading scorers, James Johnson and Jeff Teague, off to the NBA. Luckily, they still have hyper athletic and likely lottery pick next year Al-Farouq Aminu to work with. They should be a very athletic team once again this year, but a mediocre recruiting class on top of losing their two studs means a step back.
9. Miami. I'm going to have to be honest with you here - I don't think I've seen a Miami game in two years. Usually I've seen almost ever team, particularly from the power conferences, at least once or so a year, but somehow I've missed the Canes. I know they lose Jack McClinton, who was their stud for a couple of years, and that certainly can't help. The things I'm reading say that they have some pretty talented pieces and might be better than they were last year, but since I've never heard of any of these people I don't really know. and I assume they'll lose a player or two to some sort of suspension since Miami is full of criminals. Wow, I should really get to know this team better before they play the Gophers December 2nd.
10. Boston College. The Eagles were in a lot of ways a one-man show last season, and with Tyrese Rice now gone, some of those bit parts need to become major cogs. BC does have two really interesting players, both oversized wing guys who can score inside or out in 6-8 Joe Trapani and 6-5 Rakim Sanders - who was a big part of their upset win of UNC at Chapel Hill last year. Their issue is with lackluster post play, and with no new signees for this season they'll be relying on the same guys; foul-prone center Josh Southern and undersized PF Corey Raji, whose improvement might be the key for this season.
11. Virginia. Tony Bennett is the new coach in Virginia, so you can expect the Cavaliers to get very slow and very boring in the near future. For now, Sylvan Landesburg is an incredible player, but he needs a J.R. Reynolds to go with his Sean Singletary, or a Curtis Staples to go with his Harold Deane. Yes, I'm trying to say he needs help. Top 100 recruit Tristan Spurlock, a 6-8 wing from Virginia who was recruited hard by Georgetown, could be what he needs, but I don't see much improvement this year. Bennett will make a difference, as boring as he his, but it will take time.
12. NC State. Man, has the this program taken a down turn in the last three years, and with their top three scorers gone to graduation it's not going to get any better this year. Tracy Smith looks like he's going to end up being a very good player, but there's not much else here to get excited about. Sid Lowe is still around, and he brings in good size and a couple highly regarded players in PF Richard Howell (Rivals #61) and C DeShawn Painter (#127), but took a big hit when PG Lorenzo Brown (#37) failed to qualify academically and had to go to prep school. The school seems to believe in Lowe, and with girls like those above I doubt anybody is even paying attention to the court.
So there you have it. The ACC is always competitive, always tough, and always one of the best conferences in the nation and it should be the same again last year. And with that I'm off to Portland for a well-deserved vacation until Wednesday, so I won't be around to either comment on the Twins/Yankees series or defend myself against the inevitable hate mail that will follow from this preview. Hopefully Dawger, Snake, or Sidler will write a Twins post or two, but those guys are pretty much lazy sacks of crap who are borderline illiterate, so I wouldn't bet on it.
Other Previews:
Conference USA
Atlantic 10
Mountain West
1. Duke. More like Puke, am I right? Seriously I hate putting these guys first, I just hate it, but I think they're the team to beat while the Heels figure out their new team. In a bit of a switch, the Devils will be thin in the back court this season, with just Nolan Smith, Jon Scheyer, and graduated from high school a year early guy and big time recruit Andre Dawkins. Luckily for them they have a whole bunch of big tall white guys who like to play on the perimeter and are comfortable handling the ball, as usual, so lack of guard depth shouldn't hurt in the half court, at least. That group includes Kyle Singler, the preseason favorite for ACC Player of the Year.
2. North Carolina. Losing Hansbrough, Lawson, Ellington, and Green gives the Heels a lot to replace, but as you would expect there's a whole other group here ready to step in. How good can Ed Davis be? We'll find out. I remember last recruiting season it was Ed Davis this and Ed Davis that and blah blah blah. He will be counted on to be a big part of the offense. The Heels recruiting class is loaded, with all five guys in the Rivals top 70. Carolina will be loaded with big guys, with leading returning scorer Deon Thompson back, Davis, and three of the recruits 6-10 or bigger, headlined by John Henson who was described by Athlon as a "game-changing talent." The key might be PG Larry Drew, the only real PG on the roster and a top recruit two seasons ago who was sheltered behind Lawson.
3. Georgia Tech. "Georgia Tech?" is probably what you are saying right now, but you best believe the Jackets are ready to make a run. They bring in an outstanding recruiting class, including Rivals #3 overall Derrick Favors, a 6-9 center out of Georgia and the next Ralph Sampson III, as well as two guys the Gophers were looking at: PG Mfon Udofia (#32) and Glen Rice, Jr. (#45). With Gani Lawal's surprise decision to not enter the NBA draft and Iman Shumpert also back, the Jackets have as much talent as anybody (well, other than UNC or Duke). Sadly, there is not a point guard from NYC on the roster, but one of the other newcomers this year is named Brian Oliver, so they got that going for them.
4. Maryland. Grievis Vasquez is still around?!!?!?! Guy is on the Wade Lookingbill/Brian Cardinal program apparently - except he's talented. Very talented, very good all-around player, and a flat-out stud, as shown by his triple-double against North Carolina last year, as well as several other near triple doubles. The Terps have almost everybody back from last year, but don't have a secondary star to compliment Vasquez. If one of the returners or top 100 recruit Jordan Williams can elevate their game to help him, Maryland might have a sweet 16 run in them.
5. Clemson. It's tough to know what to make of the Tigers. Losing both K.C. Rivers and his-range-starts-when-he-enters-the-gym-type Terrence Oglesby weakens their perimeter, but they still bring back superstud post player Trevor Booker. He can not only score, but he's one of the best rebounders in the country. McDonald's All-American Milton Jennings joins up to help solidify the paint, but, like UNC, point guard play will determine how far Clemson can go. Hopefully Oglesby enjoys Europe, his loss certainly weakens their hopes.
7. Virginia Tech. This is a team that I can see ending up higher than 7th, but right now I'm putting them here because this is where they ended up and I don't feel like cutting and pasting anything right now. They lose their leading scorer in A.D. Vassallo, but returning guard Malcolm Delaney is a pimp and forward Jeff Allen is a beast down low, giving them an excellent inside-outside tandem. The Hokies have been an NIT staple the last few years (other than '07), but if those two can get a little help from someone else the NCAA Tournament is certainly within reach.
8. Wake Forest. Last year the Demon Deacons raced out to a 16-0 record and a #1 ranking in the polls before coming back to earth and then flaming out in the NCAA tournament with a first round loss to Cleveland State. This year they will have a tougher road ahead, losing their two leading scorers, James Johnson and Jeff Teague, off to the NBA. Luckily, they still have hyper athletic and likely lottery pick next year Al-Farouq Aminu to work with. They should be a very athletic team once again this year, but a mediocre recruiting class on top of losing their two studs means a step back.
9. Miami. I'm going to have to be honest with you here - I don't think I've seen a Miami game in two years. Usually I've seen almost ever team, particularly from the power conferences, at least once or so a year, but somehow I've missed the Canes. I know they lose Jack McClinton, who was their stud for a couple of years, and that certainly can't help. The things I'm reading say that they have some pretty talented pieces and might be better than they were last year, but since I've never heard of any of these people I don't really know. and I assume they'll lose a player or two to some sort of suspension since Miami is full of criminals. Wow, I should really get to know this team better before they play the Gophers December 2nd.
10. Boston College. The Eagles were in a lot of ways a one-man show last season, and with Tyrese Rice now gone, some of those bit parts need to become major cogs. BC does have two really interesting players, both oversized wing guys who can score inside or out in 6-8 Joe Trapani and 6-5 Rakim Sanders - who was a big part of their upset win of UNC at Chapel Hill last year. Their issue is with lackluster post play, and with no new signees for this season they'll be relying on the same guys; foul-prone center Josh Southern and undersized PF Corey Raji, whose improvement might be the key for this season.
11. Virginia. Tony Bennett is the new coach in Virginia, so you can expect the Cavaliers to get very slow and very boring in the near future. For now, Sylvan Landesburg is an incredible player, but he needs a J.R. Reynolds to go with his Sean Singletary, or a Curtis Staples to go with his Harold Deane. Yes, I'm trying to say he needs help. Top 100 recruit Tristan Spurlock, a 6-8 wing from Virginia who was recruited hard by Georgetown, could be what he needs, but I don't see much improvement this year. Bennett will make a difference, as boring as he his, but it will take time.
12. NC State. Man, has the this program taken a down turn in the last three years, and with their top three scorers gone to graduation it's not going to get any better this year. Tracy Smith looks like he's going to end up being a very good player, but there's not much else here to get excited about. Sid Lowe is still around, and he brings in good size and a couple highly regarded players in PF Richard Howell (Rivals #61) and C DeShawn Painter (#127), but took a big hit when PG Lorenzo Brown (#37) failed to qualify academically and had to go to prep school. The school seems to believe in Lowe, and with girls like those above I doubt anybody is even paying attention to the court.
So there you have it. The ACC is always competitive, always tough, and always one of the best conferences in the nation and it should be the same again last year. And with that I'm off to Portland for a well-deserved vacation until Wednesday, so I won't be around to either comment on the Twins/Yankees series or defend myself against the inevitable hate mail that will follow from this preview. Hopefully Dawger, Snake, or Sidler will write a Twins post or two, but those guys are pretty much lazy sacks of crap who are borderline illiterate, so I wouldn't bet on it.
Other Previews:
Conference USA
Atlantic 10
Mountain West
Sunday, March 22, 2009
Weekend Review
Hello all, back from Chicago and we all made it home alive. It was an excellent weekend that involved watching Dayton beat West Virginia at a Dayton bar and realizing all Dayton fans are idiots like the guy who usually sits next to us at Williams, playing Yahtzee for three hours at the bar, a lot of discussion of westerns, trainwrecks, boxcars, and other deviant behaviors, some excellent wings, several threatening text messages from Mama Dawger, a Madden draft, Dawger passing out at the bar by 9pm the first night, me losing two elite 8 teams in the first round, Bogart going 5-0 on his $100 bets but still barely breaking even due to his inability to get an OVER/UNDER right, and playing Madden on a 12 foot TV.
I won't spend much time breaking it down, but I do want to relay one specific story, however, and it's the way the trip kicked off. Dawger and Snake came to the airport together, although Dawger was on a different flight than Snake and I. I was surprised when I saw Dawg because I thought he was flying Southwest, and they fly out of the Humphrey terminal. So I said, "Aren't you flying out of Humphrey?" and I get a look back like I'm an idiot and a "No, dummy." well guess what? Yep, he ended up having to run all the way to what he thought was his gate at Lindbergh because he waited too long to head down there, and then they told him he was supposed to fly out of Humphrey. This was about 10 minutes before his flight was scheduled to take off.
So he's got to run all the way to the shuttle, take the shuttle from terminal to terminal, and then get through security again and get to his gate. Naturally, that's impossible. So instead he had to pay to switch to a later flight. Then, when Bogart picked up Snake and I at the airport, we decided not to wait around for Dawger to finally show, so he had to take a cab to Bogart's mansion. He pretty much spent somewhere in the ballpark of $100, all because he's an idiot. Good stuff.
On to the sports,
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. The Big East. Seven teams invited to the tournament, five in the sweet 16 with a sixth (Marquette) who took a third-seeded Missouri team right down to the wire without it's possibly best player. Every said the Big East was the best conference, and that put a lot of pressure on the teams to play up to that standard. They certainly have. Although unlikely, because Syracuse would have to beat not only Oklahoma but also likely North Carolina, we could be heading for an all-Big East Final Four. Louisville, UCONN, and Pitt have the inside track, but Villanova could also surprise.
2. Cole Aldrich. Just in case you didn't already feel enough pain every time you hear his name mentioned, Aldrich got to play in the Metrodome for the first two rounds and put on a show in front of the home crowd. He had a good game in the Jayhawks ten point win over North Dakota State with 23 points and 13 rebounds, and then followed that up with a dominating 13 points, 20 rebounds, and 10 blocks in a stomping of Dayton to put Kansas in the sweet sixteen. It was just the sixth triple double in NCAA Tournament history since steals, blocks, and assists became official stats in 1986, and the first since Dwayne Wade in 2003. Interestingly, both of the last two were at the metrodome, both had Snacks and Old Man W in attendance, and both I went out of town instead of going to the game in person.
3. Blake Griffin. I don't know if you noticed or not, but this guy is really, really, good. Seriously, it's like watching old footage of Wilt Chamberlain dominated poor slow white guys when you watch Griffin play. His combination of size, strength, athleticism, pimpitude, and speed is rarely seen, and if he's not the first overall pick in the NBA draft it'll automatically become the worst pick ever. Griffin put up 28 points and 13 rebounds in the Sooners' opening round win over poor little Morgan State, and he then followed it up with 33 points and 17 rebounds in their surprisingly tough 73-63 win over Michigan. He's so good, the over/under line for his total rebounds was set at 14.5 for the Michigan game. Crazy Papa Griffin (have you seen this guy? Yikes) must be so proud - until he looks over at older brother Tito Griffin.
4. Orlando Mendez-Valdez. Enough of the big guys, let's talk point guards. One of the most impressive guys we watched over the weekend was Mendez-Valdez, aka Taco Hawk aka Magic Taco, the point guard for Western Kentucky who almost single-handedly knocked Gonzaga out of the tournament. He had a good game in the first round upset of Illinois, going for 11 points, 7 rebounds and 6 assists, but then torched Gonzaga in round 2 with 25 points (including 7-10 on three pointers) and 7 assists to just one turnover. Unfortunately the Hilltoppers couldn't quite pull off a second upset, as Jeremy Pargo hit a leaner at the end to finish WKU's run, and Taco Hawk's career, with the Bulldgos pulling it out 83-81. Godspeed Magic Taco. We hardly knew you, but you will be missed.
5. A.J. Price. Watching UCONN destroy Chattanooga 103-47 and then Texas A&M 92-66 one thing is clear; the rest of the country is damn lucky Jerome Dyson got hurt. Even without him, the Huskies might be the favorite to win the whole thing, and point guard AJ Price is a big reason. He lit up Chattanooga for 20 in just 27 minutes, and then followed it up by hitting A&M for 27 points and 8 assists. UCONN will have a very tough elite 8 game against either Missouri or Memphis (assuming they beat Purdue) but if I had to pick all over again, they would be my choice to win - which pretty much guarantees a Purdue upset.
WHO SUCKED
1. The Pac 10. Honest to god, I didn't watch nearly enough Pac 10 games this year because if I had realized they played this piss poor of defense I would never had picked even one team to advance. Watching UCLA give up layup after layup to Villanova was like watching team of retarded fourth graders play the globetrotters. Also had a chance to watch Arizona State against Syracuse, and they were just as bad. Ugly. The Pac had six invites, and only the team that probably shouldn't have gotten one, Arizona, made it out of the weekend.
Cal was seeded higher than Maryland but let the Terps shoot 49% and lost. UCLA beat VCU thanks to them having zero idea what to do down 1 with ten seconds left and the ball, but then got the absolute shit kicked out of them by Nova, giving up 46% shooting which should have been higher but towards the end the Wildcats just started chucking up anything for fun. Washington was one of only two teams seeded #4 or better to not make it out of the weekend, thanks to a loss to Purdue, and even though USC and Arizona St won their first games and were then expected to lose their second, the way these guys play out west is soft and weak. Really wish I had known that before I put ASU and UCLA in the sweet 16.
2. James Harden. Speaking of Arizona State, other than their piss poor girl style defense, they also had no chance of winning thanks to James Harden, likely a top five pick in the NBA draft who refused to show up this weekend. They won their first round game over Temple despite Harden, who shot just 1-8 and scored only 9 points. They were then bounced by an infinitely better Syracuse team, with Harden once again not showing up, going just 2-10 and scoring just 10 points. Unacceptable, especially since he led his team with 20.1ppg in the regular season, and shot over 50%. Even more troubling is that Harden scored 10 points or less six times this season and three of those are in the Sun Devils last three games. Maybe he's a choker, or maybe he's broken, but if I'm going to draft him into the NBA, I'm very nervous.
3. Wake Forest. The only top four team to lose in the first round, the former #1 ranked Demon Deacons not only got beat by Cleveland State, but they straight up got their asses beat, losing 84-69 in a game that honestly probably wasn't that close, ending the year on a 2-game losing streak after losing in their first game of the ACC tournament as well. How ugly was it? Wake's 18 turnovers weren't even the worst part, nor were the 7 by Jeff Teague alone. Wake's defense was the truly awful part, allowing Cleveland State to shoot 48% from the floor, when they shot just 43% for the season, and turning them over just 10 times when they averaged 14 per game during the season. Even worse, the 84 points the Vikings scored was their highest total this season. With Teague, Al-Faroque Aminu, and Josh Johnson all possibly going pro, who knows what direction the program is heading.
4. The State of Utah. Three NCAA bids for the six Utah D-I teams, which should have been four if Weber State hadn't choked in the Big Sky Tournament, and zero wins, zero teams advancing. Utah State looked like absolute garbage other than a little run towards the end when it was pretty much too late, losing to Marquette while refusing to make a shot and not giving it to the Big Ginger enough. Utah, although catching a bit of a bad break by getting the best of the 12 seeds, was still a favorite and probably shouldn't have let Arizona shoot 55%, and BYU was a favorite over Texas A&M (8 over a 9) but got rolled 79-66, losing to the Aggies in the first round for the second year in a row. I'd also like to point out once again that the state of Utah has six division I basketball programs, and Minnesota still has just the one for some reason.
5. Clemson. It wouldn't have been too hard to just include the ACC here, since Wake (see above), Clemson, Florida State, and Boston College all managed to disappoint with first round losses, but Maryland's nice win and the success of UNC and Duke will keep them from being labeled a disappointment - at least for now. Clemson, however, is most definitely a disappointment and continues to come up short, year-after-year. This year, the 7th seeded Tigers, who started 16-0 and at one point were ranked 10th in the country, lost to who we know is a pretty bad Michigan team to end their season early. This season is similar to last year, when they Tigers started 12-1 and were ranked as highly as #15, then limped to a 5 seed and lost to Villanova in the first round. Which was similar to the previous season, when they started 17-0, were ranked 14th, and then crashed and missed the NCAA tournament altogether. Which was similar to the previous season when they started 11-0 and didn't make the tournament. Seriously, I think it's time to just stop taking them seriously.
That's it for now. I head to New Jersey for two nights tomorrow, so I'm sure I'll be back writing one if not both of them. Stay tuned.
Monday, March 16, 2009
Here's What's Going to Happen: Midwest Region
Before I get started with this, I just want to say I fully expect this tournament to be one of the most unpredictable in years, and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see zero #1 seeds in the Final Four - well, it would surprise me, but not shock me. That being said, I'm sure my picks will suck hard, but so will yours jackass.
FIRST ROUND
#1 Louisville over #16 Alabama St/Morehead St: Naturally.
#8 Ohio State over #9 Siena: It seems weird to me to be picking the Buckeyes here after I pimped Siena all year, but I don't feel right picking the Saints. They had a good year, but not a great one, and although they played a whole bunch of good teams, they never beat anybody, although they did play Kansas tough. They aren't a good defensive team, which hurts in the NCAAs, but they do have good guard play, which helps. I just think Ohio State is starting to peak at the right time, and their guards can handle Siena's.
#5 Utah over #12 Arizona. Picking Arizona is the trendy upset pick this year, but I'm not buying it. While I really think Budinger, Wise, and Hill are really an excellent trio for Arizona, there's a reason why they were #62 in the RPI while Utah is #9, and they are #39 on KenPom while Utah is #25. Need more? How about Arizona is 132nd in defensive efficiency - just seven tournament teams are worse. They also allow opponents to shoot almost 36% from three, one of the worse marks in the country. Utah, yep, you guessed it; white boys shoot 38%, one of the better marks in the country. So go ahead and pick your trendy upset - you'll be wrong.
#4 Wake Forest over #13 Cleveland State. There are two schools of thought here. The first is that Wake Forest, who was once ranked as the #1 team in the country, is much better than a four seed and is a sleeper final four contender. The other is that Cleveland State and their super slow tempo and solid defense will be troubling for a team like Wake, who is a bit overrated thanks to their hot start and is horrible at taking care of the ball (200th in turnover %) and whose best player and point guard sports a 1-1 Ast/TO ratio. I am closer to camp #2 than camp #1, but I can't quite pull the trigger on an upset here.
#6 West Virginia over #11 Dayton. I really like West Virginia this year, despite Huggy Bear's track record of early round flameouts. And as much as I liked the A-10 this year, there's no way I can pick Dayton to beat the #8 team in the country according to KenPom. Oh, yeah, WVU is the #8 team in the country using Ken's ratings. I KNEW they were that good.
#3 Kansas over #14 North Dakota State. Give it up Bison fans, give it up. You're going to get destroyed. Almost a home game? What do you think it will be for Kansas? Do you really think Sherron Collins will let precious little gnome/elf/leprechaun Ben Woodside go off? Can those weak little girly armed sissy boys NDSU calls forwards handle Aldrich? Give me a break, nerds.
#7 BC over #10 USC. Looking at stats, I should probably be picking USC here. They are better defensively, and even though the Trojans turn it over way too much, BC doesn't force any turnovers. So the Trojans should probably be the pick. But how can I pick against big-game Tyrese Rice, as a senior in his last chance to shine? I looked, and in his junior and senior seasons he always played well in big games. This is another chance.
#2 Michigan State over #15 Robert Morris. Meh. Robert Morris isn't good enough to make this even remotely interesting.
SECOND ROUND
#1 Louisville over #8 Ohio State. Ohio State might be peaking at the right time, but so is Louisville, and the Cards are infinitely better than the Buckeyes. Yes, infinitely. Seriously, there isn't a single position where the Bucks have an advantage, except possibly backup center. Even OSU's best player, Evan Turner, can't compare to Earl Clark or Terrence Williams - whichever one you want to call the small forward.
#4 Wake over #5 Utah. Probably the toughest pick for me of the entire bracket. I really don't think Wake is that bad, and I think Utah is better than most think. Plus, Wake's strength is their athleticism, and Utah hasn't had much trouble with athletic teams (beat LSU and hung right with Cal). However Wake is better than either of those teams. And Wake's weakness is turnovers, but Utah sucks at forcing them. In the end, the matchup just favors Wake too much and hurts Utah, but I think overall Utah is every bit as good as Wake.
#6 West Virginia over #3 Kansas. There's no doubt Kansas has been super impressive this year, especially with all the talent they lost from last year's team. However, I think it's been a bit of a mirage due to the Big Twelve being down this year. The only good teams the Jayhawks beat in non-conference were Washington and Tennessee, a couple of pretty overrated teams themselves. This could go the other way if they can't stop Aldrich, but I'm going with the Mountaineers.
#2 Michigan State over #7 BC. I mentioned that it was tough to bet against Tyrese Rice, but when he has to go up against Kalin Lucas it's actually not that tough at all.
SWEET SIXTEEN
#1 Louisville over #4 Wake. Here's where I can finally pick against Wake, who should consider themselves fortunate for the draw they got. Remember how the Demon Deacons turn it over too much? Well, the Cardinals are the first team they are going to play who are good at forcing turnovers. Beyond that, they are the second best defensive team in the country according to defensive efficiency (behind Memphis-who played an easier schedule). The Deacs are a quality defensive unit themselves, but struggle against good offensive teams - which the Cards are.
#6 West Virginia over #2 Michigan State. Yep, that's right. Guess how many teams rank in the top 15 in both offensive and defensive efficiency? Two. Gonzaga and WVU, and Gonzaga has the added bonus of playing in a poor conference to pad their stats. And we aren't just stats-related here, believe it or not, the Mountaineers are a really good team. They get scoring from four players, with a healthy mix of inside and out. They're very athletic, but don't turn it over much. Although there's no seven footer here, they have good size including a 6-6 shooting guard. Everybody rebounds, and they do it really well, particularly on the offensive end. Remember this name: Devin Ebanks. He will be this year's Derrick Rose - but without the final four appearance, because...
ELITE 8
#1 Louisville over #6 West Virginia. So pretty much everything I said about West Virginia applies to Louisville, except they're much better in every facet of the game. The biggest difference here will be the fact that WVU doesn't shoot the ball well, and Louisville is one of the best in the world at not letting people shoot the ball well. The opposite applies, but I can't take a Bobby Huggins team any further, especially when they run up against Rick Pitino. Louisville swept WVU in the regular season, but only by a total of nine points so expect this one to be a war, with the Cards pulling it out in the end.
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