Well, we're in crunch time now, eh? All that cushion, all that certainty, all that "should be in" stuff that the Gophers built up with those good wins over UNC and West Virginia is now gone and we are into do or die time. It shouldn't be too much of an issue, because the next four aren't exactly going against world beaters: Michigan State and Michigan at home, at Northwestern, and then back home against Penn State. Win three - and they should win three - and they'll be 9-9, which, when combined with their non-conference wins and computer numbers would probably get them in. Win all four, which is possible, and they're guaranteed in. But win just 2, and you'll need a nice run in the B10 tournament. Any less than that, and then turn out the lights - but not at Williams, because we'll be seeing a home game or two for the prestigious NIT. Really, it's in the teams' hands and in their control. Win the games you're supposed to win and you're in. That's it. Simple, really. Practically guaranteed. The Gophers would never let me down.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Purdue Boilermakers. I think beating the two best teams in your conference qualifies as having a pretty awesome week, and they certainly made their case that they, not Wisconsin, should be considered the second best team in the Big Ten. Really, though, it doesn't get much more impressive than beating two top 10 ranked teams and conference foes at that, even if they were at home. E'Twaun Moore had some big-time struggles in mid-season but he's hit his stride big time, hitting for at least 19 in his last four games, capping it off with a career high 38 against Ohio State on Sunday, a game in which he hit 13 of 18 shots and basically dominated the #1 team in the country or whatever they were ranked. This is a whole different team when he's on (JaJuan Johnson is always on) and they pretty emphatically answered the question, "Who has Purdue really beaten?" Big Ten actually looking pretty good for possibly three Sweet 16 teams. But probably zero.
2. Jake Pullen. There's little doubt who picked up the biggest win of the week, even if it was way back on Monday night and already feels like it happened a long time ago. K-State was basically drifting aimlessly, having taken their preseason top 10 (top 5?) ranking and basically pissed it away thanks to complacency and a crazy amount of turnovers, but there's never been any doubt they were talented. Thanks to Pullen, who scored 38 in that big win over Kansas and followed up with 27 more in a blowout win over Oklahoma, they may be making a late push towards an NCAA bid. ESPN's bracketology had them as a 10 seed after they beat the Jayhawks, with some late success - like a home win over Mizzou - they could end up a 6 or so seed. Talk about a dangerous 6 seed, wow.
3. The Colonial Athletic Conference. There were four big winners in Bracket Busters: George Mason, Virginia Commonwealth, Old Dominion, and Utah State. All four of those teams picked up a quality win, which means each of them moved that much closer to grabbed an at-large bid. Notice anything three of those teams have in common? Yep, GMU, VCU, and ODU are all members of the CAA, and they TCB ASAP FYI, and can probably now RSVP for NCAA MM, although if either of them go FUBAR and lose to an inferior opponent they'll probably drop to the wrong side of the bubble, but right now it's actually looking fairly likely that the CAA will end up with three bids. That's awesome.
4. Cincinnati Bearcats. You know how it seems like the Big Ten teams who are right on the edge of getting a bid seem to just play like garbage (Illinois, Minnesota, Northwestern)? Teams from the Big East apparently don't subscribe to that style of perpetual disappointment, and Cincy is the latest team from that conference to go from outside the bubble to inside with a very nice week. First they beat Louisville at home, and in convincing fashion, and then they followed it up by winning a very tough trap game @ Providence, going into overtime before blowing the Friars out by 12. That moves them to 8-6 now in conference play, and that's big because their last four games are all very tough (@G-Town, UCONN, @ Marquette, G-Town). This sets them up where they only need to win one of the four to get in. Still not easy by any means, but if they can't win at least one of those four they don't really deserve it anyway.
5. NBA All-Star Game. I'm just kidding, I'm not retarded enough to watch that crap.
5. Tu Holloway. Even though it's pretty retarded to change your name from Terrell to Tu I love this guy anyway. He notched a triple-double on Saturday in a surprisingly competitive game against Fordham, tallying 26 points, 11 rebounds, and 10 assists. And he did it with zero turnovers and 8-11 shooting from the floor. That's ridiculous. That has to be one of the most efficient games of all-time. I assume there is someway to look that up, but I'm drunk and tired and I'm not going to do it. Somebody do it for me. That's what the comments are for. Let's assume our lists is 1. That Bill Walton game, 2. That christian laettner game, and 3. Holloway's triple-double. What else?
WHO SUCKED
1. St. Mary's Gaels. If there was an award for most effective killing of your at-large chances in a single week, St. Mary's would stand an awful good chance at winning that award this year, and possibly even for the entire decade. They started the week in "almost certainly in" status, lost to a terrible, terrible, terrible San Diego team which knocked them to "probably out" status, and then blew there big chance to jump back in, losing at home to Utah State. With Gonzaga so down this year it's difficult for the Gaels to get quality wins and as of right now their early season win over St. John's is the only real impressive win on their resume. If they can close with home wins over Gonzaga and Portland, two of the better teams in the league, they would end up at 14-2 in WCC play. I would guess if they can then at least get to the final in the conference tournament that would probably get them in, but man, did they ever plummet down the S-curve.
2. Virginia Tech Hokies. Oopsies. Honestly, as frustrating as it is to be a Gopher fan - and it's damn frustrating let me tell you what - being a Hokie fan would be a nightmare. Two straight years of being just barely on the wrong side of the bubble due to softer than Ralph Sampson non-conference scheduling, followed this year by a much better schedule which resulted in losing nearly every meaningful non-conf game and now probably losing one too many conference games they really couldn't afford to lose after dropping a game to Virginia on Saturday. That gives the Hokies five conference losses: Virginia, Georgia Tech, BC, UNC, and Virginia - yes, they were swept by Virginia. Take those two losses plus the GT loss and they're going to need to basically be perfect from here on. Hopefully not though because their coach is a douche.
3. Missouri Valley Conference. If the MVC wasn't already a one-bid league, it certainly is now as Bracket Busters was not kind to teams from the Valley. Or, more accurately, teams from the Valley just plain sucked. Northern Iowa, who needed a win to have a shot at a bid, lost to George Mason (at home). Wichita State, who needed a win to have a shot at a bid, lost to VCU (at home). Missouri State, who needed a win to have a shot at a bid, lost to Valpo. Actually, nine MVC teams played in Bracket Busters this weekend and they managed just three total wins, none of which came from teams with post-season aspirations outside of a possible NIT berth. Just a terrible showing overall. This feels more like something the Twins would do. Somehow.
4. Duquesne Dukes. Oh Duquesne you're breaking my heart. A surprisingly hot start in Atlantic 10 play had the Dukes at 8-0 and atop conference play, but even more exciting they were looking like a fringe bubble candidate for an at-large bid. It would be their first appearance since 1977 and behind a potent offense and a stingy defense they looked legit. Of course, they did nothing in non-conference play so their margin of error was small, and it's now non-existent after they lost to American's most hated team, the Dayton Flyers, a game they led by six late before letting the evil Flyers go on a 10-0 run. That's now the Dukes third loss in four games with Xavier being the only loss that didn't hurt. Now Duquesne will need to win the A-10 tournament to make a bid. I'm sure that will happen.
5. Baylor Bears. Well that ought to do it. Although you could definitely argue that Michigan State or Kansas State are the most disappointing teams this season they are both still alive for an NCAA Tournament berth. The same can't be said for Baylor anymore, who completely what can only be described as a four-month long dump on their own shoes by losing by 9 to Texas Tech. AT HOME. That's Texas Tech, record 12-15, Big 12 record 4-8, and RPI 139. That's unforgivable. Although that actually might not even be Baylor's worst loss this year, because they also dropped games to Oklahoma (12-13 (4-8), #132) and Iowa State (14-13 (1-11), #147. Any one of those losses would be enough to cast a pretty big shadow on their chances in March. Combine the three, and they're cooked. Looks like I was right that their 30-1 number to win the championship was way off. Just turns out I was wrong in the wrong direction.
I didn't have room for him here because too many teams shit the bed this week, but I also want to point out that Durrell Summers shot all of 1-8 this entire week (two games), mainly because in their game against Ohio State he was so bad he only played 16 minutes and in the game against Illinois he shot 1-7. He should probably just quit and transfer. I hear Ames is quite nice.
Want to know what else sucks? When you think you put down on Aaron Baddeley to win the Northern Trust Open at 66-1, and you think you meant to because you specifically checked each book you have an account at to find the best odds. And then you watch the tournament all week and see he's in contention, and then when he's up 2 with just 2 holes to go and you pretty much have the win in the bag you go to check on what the exact amount you're about to win is and it turns out someway, somehow that bet isn't there and you can't blame anybody but yourself because you know damn well you were drinking Wednesday night and probably completely spaced on hitting "confirm" that final time.
FML.
Showing posts with label E'Twaun Moore. Show all posts
Showing posts with label E'Twaun Moore. Show all posts
Sunday, February 20, 2011
Sunday, January 16, 2011
Week in Review - 10.17.2011
Guess who has two thumbs and kicked ass in their Golden Globes pool?
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Minnesota Gopher Basketball. Not for the Iowa game, because that was very meh and actually shameful in parts, but for the win over Purdue earlier this week. I said before that game that it wasn't necessarily a must-win but was a must-compete, but really it was pretty close to a must win and they won. Jesus that sentence sucks, I'm too distracted by this Washington game and the Golden Globes. Replace that with something that makes more sense. Go read www.thedailygopher.com. And, um, go gophers.
2. Florida State Seminoles. What is it about FSU? Why do they just completely own Duke? This was the third time since 2002 they've beaten Duke when the Blue Devils were ranked #1, and this time was certainly impressive. This wasn't a win because they caught Duke on a bad night, this was a win where they just outplayed them and controlled the game from the beginning. In mid-second half, Duke was down 40-29 before going on a 13-2 run to tie the game up. Rather than folding, the Seminoles responded with a 10-3 run of their own (with 8 of those points coming from Derwin Kitchen). Every time Duke would pull close, Florida State would score (again, usually Kitchen). Their trademark stingy defense (#6 in the country) held Duke to 31% shooting, and on this night was joined by an efficient offense to pick up a huge, and badly needed win. This completely wipes out that loss to Auburn last week, and puts FSU back on course for an NCAA bid.
3. Penn State Nittany Lions. It looks to me like the Big Ten just got deeper. You got your good teams (Wisconsin, Purdue, Ohio State), your pretty good teams (Illinois, Minnesota, Michigan State), and your might be good teams (Northwestern, and now Penn State). Penn State now has to be considered a threat for an NCAA bid. Earlier this week they beat Illinois to grab to two consecutive wins over ranked teams (they beat Michigan State last week). They were starting to look like a dangerous home team, and that's it, but on Saturday they went to Columbus and gave Ohio State everything they could handle before falling 69-66. Make no mistake, if PSU plays that exact same game on the road they will beat nearly every other Big Ten team, and that includes your precious Gophers. We are now at the point where a road win in State College will be a minor miracle.
4. Texas Longhorns. Texas has had bigger wins this year (Illinois, Michigan State) but this week's victory over Texas Tech in impressive fashion (30 point win on the road) is the one that finally won me over and is forcing me to admit that this year Texas might have it all put together. Tech is actually pretty bad this year, but the disappointing Texas teams the last few years always had a tendency to struggle or lose these kinds of games on the road. To come out and completely destroy the Red Raiders on their home floor is a very good sign. They also killed Oklahoma, but I'm pretty sure five random guys who read this blog could do that.
5. Mississippi State Bulldogs. Miss State had enough talent to be picked by many to be a top SEC team thsi year, but started off crappy enough to be featured as "WHO SUCKED" multiple times and generally looked like crap, including a fist fight in the stands between two of their players. Renardo Sidney is back from suspension from that fight, however, and now Dee Bost has returned after the NCAA's bizarre decisions to reinstate someone who entered the NBA draft and withdrew well after the deadline and things might be starting to come together, Pepper. Not that beating Ole Miss and Auburn at home is necessarily some sort of meaningful run, but when you've lost to Hawaii, East Tennessee State, and Florida Atlantic this year, you'll take anything.
WHO SUCKED
1. Oregon Ducks. Not because they lost to Auburn in the title game, but because of that goofy foo-foo offense they trot out there. Seriously, it's not even football. It's like watching a flag football game up at UMD. Nobody lines up normally, there are like six guys in motion, and it's more ballet than anything else. I kept expecting them to bust out the weave. And really, if that's your offense, fine. But when you have the ball inside the five-yard line, just line up like a normal team. Bring in two tight ends and a full back and give the ball to LaMichael James and have him run up the middle. There's a reason why everybody does that on the goal line - because it works. Serves 'em right getting goal line standed. Cut the cute crap. And Auburn wasn't much better, they subscribe to the same theory of offensive retardetry. God damn circus football. AND STAY OFF MY LAWN!!!
2. Baylor Bears. This isn't easy for me, since I've pimped Baylor as a National Title Contender from here to White Castle, but it's looking more and more like Baylor is more pretender than contender. You just don't get rolled by Iowa State if you're a good team - no offense to the Cyclones. Really, look at their results. Who is their best win over? Texas Tech? Oklahoma? Arizona State? Oof. They've lost basically every single game against anybody decent all year. You want to know their problem? Point guard play. Last year they were one of the most efficient offenses in the country, ranking 3rd. This year turnovers are killing them, and they're turning it over on 22.7% of their possessions, 273rd in the country. Who could have known Tweety freaking Carter was so important? Probably not even Tweety Carter's mom.
3. Central Florida Knights. Ok, can we please all settle down about UCF and Mike Jordan's son? There was never any serious doubt that UCF was overrated, and thank god they finally went and proved it this week losing to both Houston and Southern Miss, the former a loss to a non-tournament team and the latter a blow-out by 17. They're still a good team with pretty decent shot at an NCAA bid, but that's all they are and now that they aren't undefeated anymore maybe ESPN can cool their jets a bit. Although with Marcus Jordan, yes Michael's stupid son, leading the team in scoring you can fully expect a disproportionate amount of attention to be paid to UCF. And he's only a sophomore, which means we can expect two more years of this.
4. E'Twaun Moore. Holy geez, guy is trainwrecking all over the place. Purdue went 0-2 this week with losses to the Gophers and West Virginia and since the Boilers are basically a two man team, and JaJuan Johnson is blowing up and could have been in the WHO WAS AWESOME category (averaged 27.5 and 9 in the two games), guess who is killing them right now? In their two games this week he shot 2-14 and 6-18, which takes his shooting in their last four games to a robust 15-57 (26%). Now, he definitely does a ton for them outside of scoring (23 rebounds and 20 assists in those four games) but Purdue can't win without him scoring. They don't have enough pop beyond their two studs to do any damage whatsoever if either of them fail to show, and now Moore has done exactly that four games in a row. To sum up: that's bad.
5. The ACC. God this is sad. The best conference, by far, when I was growing up has now become a conference where you can't even point at a second team and say "that's an NCAA team." Other than Duke, what do you have? North Carolina, who has struggled most of the year but seemed to be finally putting it together lost to lowly Georgia Tech yesterday. Maryland blew a twelve-point second half lead at Villanova and threw away a chance for a non-Duke ACC team to grab a meaningful non-conference win. NC State and Virginia Tech were supposed to be in the mix but have been big disappointments, and Boston College, who was suddenly looking like they were making a run at a bid, just lost to Miami. You know they're going to get 2-3 at large teams in, but at this point it's impossible to pick who the teams will be, outside of Duke. They're looking more like the Pac-10 than the ACC I know and love, and I don't like it.
Happy MLK day, everybody. I hope you all have the day off, as I do. If you don't you kind of suck.
Get it?
Lastly, I want to call your attention to a new Minnesota themed basketball blog, Rise and Fire, which has already changed names once. They're new, and who knows if they'll stick around or flame out like so many others, but so far I'm picking up where they're putting down. And also they list me as a "great hoops link", so they have great taste. And are probably deranged or not all that bright. Maybe both.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Minnesota Gopher Basketball. Not for the Iowa game, because that was very meh and actually shameful in parts, but for the win over Purdue earlier this week. I said before that game that it wasn't necessarily a must-win but was a must-compete, but really it was pretty close to a must win and they won. Jesus that sentence sucks, I'm too distracted by this Washington game and the Golden Globes. Replace that with something that makes more sense. Go read www.thedailygopher.com. And, um, go gophers.
2. Florida State Seminoles. What is it about FSU? Why do they just completely own Duke? This was the third time since 2002 they've beaten Duke when the Blue Devils were ranked #1, and this time was certainly impressive. This wasn't a win because they caught Duke on a bad night, this was a win where they just outplayed them and controlled the game from the beginning. In mid-second half, Duke was down 40-29 before going on a 13-2 run to tie the game up. Rather than folding, the Seminoles responded with a 10-3 run of their own (with 8 of those points coming from Derwin Kitchen). Every time Duke would pull close, Florida State would score (again, usually Kitchen). Their trademark stingy defense (#6 in the country) held Duke to 31% shooting, and on this night was joined by an efficient offense to pick up a huge, and badly needed win. This completely wipes out that loss to Auburn last week, and puts FSU back on course for an NCAA bid.
3. Penn State Nittany Lions. It looks to me like the Big Ten just got deeper. You got your good teams (Wisconsin, Purdue, Ohio State), your pretty good teams (Illinois, Minnesota, Michigan State), and your might be good teams (Northwestern, and now Penn State). Penn State now has to be considered a threat for an NCAA bid. Earlier this week they beat Illinois to grab to two consecutive wins over ranked teams (they beat Michigan State last week). They were starting to look like a dangerous home team, and that's it, but on Saturday they went to Columbus and gave Ohio State everything they could handle before falling 69-66. Make no mistake, if PSU plays that exact same game on the road they will beat nearly every other Big Ten team, and that includes your precious Gophers. We are now at the point where a road win in State College will be a minor miracle.
4. Texas Longhorns. Texas has had bigger wins this year (Illinois, Michigan State) but this week's victory over Texas Tech in impressive fashion (30 point win on the road) is the one that finally won me over and is forcing me to admit that this year Texas might have it all put together. Tech is actually pretty bad this year, but the disappointing Texas teams the last few years always had a tendency to struggle or lose these kinds of games on the road. To come out and completely destroy the Red Raiders on their home floor is a very good sign. They also killed Oklahoma, but I'm pretty sure five random guys who read this blog could do that.
5. Mississippi State Bulldogs. Miss State had enough talent to be picked by many to be a top SEC team thsi year, but started off crappy enough to be featured as "WHO SUCKED" multiple times and generally looked like crap, including a fist fight in the stands between two of their players. Renardo Sidney is back from suspension from that fight, however, and now Dee Bost has returned after the NCAA's bizarre decisions to reinstate someone who entered the NBA draft and withdrew well after the deadline and things might be starting to come together, Pepper. Not that beating Ole Miss and Auburn at home is necessarily some sort of meaningful run, but when you've lost to Hawaii, East Tennessee State, and Florida Atlantic this year, you'll take anything.
WHO SUCKED
1. Oregon Ducks. Not because they lost to Auburn in the title game, but because of that goofy foo-foo offense they trot out there. Seriously, it's not even football. It's like watching a flag football game up at UMD. Nobody lines up normally, there are like six guys in motion, and it's more ballet than anything else. I kept expecting them to bust out the weave. And really, if that's your offense, fine. But when you have the ball inside the five-yard line, just line up like a normal team. Bring in two tight ends and a full back and give the ball to LaMichael James and have him run up the middle. There's a reason why everybody does that on the goal line - because it works. Serves 'em right getting goal line standed. Cut the cute crap. And Auburn wasn't much better, they subscribe to the same theory of offensive retardetry. God damn circus football. AND STAY OFF MY LAWN!!!
2. Baylor Bears. This isn't easy for me, since I've pimped Baylor as a National Title Contender from here to White Castle, but it's looking more and more like Baylor is more pretender than contender. You just don't get rolled by Iowa State if you're a good team - no offense to the Cyclones. Really, look at their results. Who is their best win over? Texas Tech? Oklahoma? Arizona State? Oof. They've lost basically every single game against anybody decent all year. You want to know their problem? Point guard play. Last year they were one of the most efficient offenses in the country, ranking 3rd. This year turnovers are killing them, and they're turning it over on 22.7% of their possessions, 273rd in the country. Who could have known Tweety freaking Carter was so important? Probably not even Tweety Carter's mom.
3. Central Florida Knights. Ok, can we please all settle down about UCF and Mike Jordan's son? There was never any serious doubt that UCF was overrated, and thank god they finally went and proved it this week losing to both Houston and Southern Miss, the former a loss to a non-tournament team and the latter a blow-out by 17. They're still a good team with pretty decent shot at an NCAA bid, but that's all they are and now that they aren't undefeated anymore maybe ESPN can cool their jets a bit. Although with Marcus Jordan, yes Michael's stupid son, leading the team in scoring you can fully expect a disproportionate amount of attention to be paid to UCF. And he's only a sophomore, which means we can expect two more years of this.
4. E'Twaun Moore. Holy geez, guy is trainwrecking all over the place. Purdue went 0-2 this week with losses to the Gophers and West Virginia and since the Boilers are basically a two man team, and JaJuan Johnson is blowing up and could have been in the WHO WAS AWESOME category (averaged 27.5 and 9 in the two games), guess who is killing them right now? In their two games this week he shot 2-14 and 6-18, which takes his shooting in their last four games to a robust 15-57 (26%). Now, he definitely does a ton for them outside of scoring (23 rebounds and 20 assists in those four games) but Purdue can't win without him scoring. They don't have enough pop beyond their two studs to do any damage whatsoever if either of them fail to show, and now Moore has done exactly that four games in a row. To sum up: that's bad.
5. The ACC. God this is sad. The best conference, by far, when I was growing up has now become a conference where you can't even point at a second team and say "that's an NCAA team." Other than Duke, what do you have? North Carolina, who has struggled most of the year but seemed to be finally putting it together lost to lowly Georgia Tech yesterday. Maryland blew a twelve-point second half lead at Villanova and threw away a chance for a non-Duke ACC team to grab a meaningful non-conference win. NC State and Virginia Tech were supposed to be in the mix but have been big disappointments, and Boston College, who was suddenly looking like they were making a run at a bid, just lost to Miami. You know they're going to get 2-3 at large teams in, but at this point it's impossible to pick who the teams will be, outside of Duke. They're looking more like the Pac-10 than the ACC I know and love, and I don't like it.
Happy MLK day, everybody. I hope you all have the day off, as I do. If you don't you kind of suck.
Get it?
Lastly, I want to call your attention to a new Minnesota themed basketball blog, Rise and Fire, which has already changed names once. They're new, and who knows if they'll stick around or flame out like so many others, but so far I'm picking up where they're putting down. And also they list me as a "great hoops link", so they have great taste. And are probably deranged or not all that bright. Maybe both.
Thursday, January 13, 2011
Live Game Blog: Minnesota Gophers vs. Purdue Boilermakers
Alright, I'm not a true fan. It's now 8:00pm, and I'm about to watch the Gopher/Purdue game. I couldn't watch it live because I'm stupid enough to have two kids, and said kids take up too much of my attention for me to be able to pay any kind of attention to the game, so I Tivo and I wait. Such is life. So now I'm here with my remote, a box of Turning Leaf chadonnay, and a bowl full of beef-flavored ramen. Since I'm clearly living the high life, I thought I'd invite you along with me. I'm really hoping the Gophers can pull this one out.
19:28 - Colton Iverson (starting for Trevor Mbakwe) with a really nice move, taking the ball from the free-throw line to the block with two dribbles, backing in on whoever Purdue's dorky white center is, faking to the left and tossing up a nice jump hook to the right. Swish. Honestly that whole thing was a thing of beauty. It's amazing how he can do that and then look like the fat kid who quit hockey to play basketball on the 8th grade B team the next trip. I coached 8th grade B team once. I know of what I speak, and it ain't pretty.
19:04 - Rodney draws E'Twaun Moore. I love this. Challenge Rodney and hope he steps up.
18:18 - Ok, JaJuan Johnson has now hit a three-pointer and an 18-footer to give Purdue a 5-4 lead. Hopefully Ralph will soon realize that you have to guard him on the perimeter as if he was a guard, not a typical plodding center. And he just hit a turnaround 12-footer over Iverson. This is ridiculous. We on this blog have been calling him "The college KG" since his sophomore year (because we have such an eye for talent), but that might not be high enough praise.
16:58 - And he hits a turnaround over Ralph. This is just ridiculous. I think "The college Jesus" might not be high enough praise.
16:16 - Trevor Mbakwe in to a nice ovation. I approve of that.
15:53 - Rodney and Nolen can't decide if there's supposed to be a switch on a pick, leading to a wide open three-pointer for Purdue and a 12-6 lead. I don't know if the Gopher players are dumb or if Tubby just can't coach, but this shit happens way too often.
15:50 - By the way, how about everybody out there pays attention to flights from MSP to Chicago (either airport) leaving either the 17th or 18th of March and returning the 20th and then email me if you find something cheap. Sound good? Thanks guys, you're the best.
14:59 - Mbakwe draws the foul inside and that might have been against Johnson. I'd know for certain if this announcing team was remotely competent, but instead they're busy telling us that the only way to stop E'Twaun Moore is to hope he gets food poisoning. Really, jackass? I know you're trying to be cute but it turns out you're just a retard.
14:30 - Austin Hollins with a nice take for a lay-up and the foul, cutting the lead to 14-12 (13 if he makes the free-throw). Where the hell has he been? And he misses the free-throw. Hollins has been awfully non-descript for several weeks. I know that's probably typical, but I liked it better when he was a tish more dynamic.
12:53 - Looking like a white-boy shooting battle might be breaking out between Blake and Ryne Smith. My money's on Blake.
12:03 - Noeln for three! And we're tied at 17. Do you remember in my preview of this game how I said D.J. Byrd was the new Brian Cardinal. Well, he's in the game and he's rockin' black socks, a shooting sleeve, and some sort of tank top under his jersey. He just looks annoying.
11:44 - I love how they have Magic Johnson talking about "content of character." I love the guy, he's still my favorite all-time NBA player besides Billy Hoyle, but this is the guy who cheated on his wife for years and years to the point where he contracted HIV and was damn lucky he didn't end up giving it to her or his kid. I really don't think a "content of character" piece is really the place for the Magic Man.
10:17 - This announcer is so bad I seriously want to kill him. My head is literally exploding right now.
9:43 - God damn this ramen is hot! Why you gotta play me like that, ramen?
9:00 - Nolen airballs a three. That's more like it. 22-21 Purdue thanks to a DJ Dickface three-pointer.
8:31 - Chip Armelin just stole Moe Hargrow's move. He got the ball on the break on a 2-on-2 situation, saw the Purdue's guy guarding him was a white dude, and just took it right at him and ended up scoring. Hargrow used to do that every time.
7:48 - Lewis Jackson now abusing Al Nolen for back to back lay-ups. That's not supposed to happen. I thought Nolen was a better defender than that.
6:54 - Jackson splits the top of the zone (Nolen & Armelin) and finds Moore for a wide open three. I know the guy is quick, but that's just awful. Just awful. Once again, either these guys are kind of dumb or Tubby is an overrated coach.
5:26 - Nobody bothers to pick up Barlow on the wing and he coasts in for a lay-up. The amount of mistakes this team makes on a nightly basis is mind-boggling. I'm starting to think they're more talented than I give them credit for, just because they can actually compete despite making so many dumb plays.
3:23 - Sampson gives the Gophers the lead back at 34-33 with a jump hook over Johnson, but the importantly is that he got the ball on teh block, ignored the double-team, and aggressively went for the bucket. I don't even care that he made it, just showing that kind of aggressiveness is a good sign.
2:45 - Jackson tried driving on Nolen again, but this time Nolen blocks his shot and causes the jump ball. Much better.
1:21 - Rodney misses an alley-oop dunk. Freaking awesome.
HALF - Gophers lead 41-40, and that was a great, great half of basketball on the offensive end. Even their half-court sets are looking smooth and and working. JaJuan Johnson (18 pts already) is ridiculously hot and making everything, but they've managed to take E'Twaun Moore out of the game for the most part (1-8 shooting). If the Gophers keep playing like this the rest of the game, they're going to take this one. That Lewis Jackson/Al Nolen match-up might be the key to the game.
19:42 - That play where Blake comes from the corner off a double-pick and curls to the free-throw line seemingly works every time. I'm thinking his rep as a guy who only shoots threes leads to poor defenders on him, and when he takes that cut further inside they can't keep up. With a sample size of tonight, that certainly looks to be the case, because Ryne Smith isn't going to win any defensive awards.
18:41 - Sampson goes to the deck to dig out a steal, and it leads to a three-pointer by Blake to give the Gophers a 46-40 lead. They just have more energy right now, and Purdue seems near meltdown mode. Of course, this is usually where the rug gets pulled out and the Boilers go on a 11-2 run.
16:59 - Lewis Jackson just hit a fadeaway three-pointer. Lewis Jackson can't shoot, and never shoots threes, and only chucked up that one because of the shot clock about to expire. Great. And just to add insult to injury, announcer guy tells us that Jackson is back from injury and healthy and is hitting 45% of this three-pointers this year. But, in reality, he's 1-5 on the season. So this guy is still a jackdonkey.
16:11 - Hoff from 28 feet. Dude is dialed tonight. I'm hoping we get a heat-check from 35, Jake Sullivan style.
15:14 - Hoff hits the jumper on that same curl pick play, and is fouled. Tonight is his night, folks.
15:14 - Of course he misses the free throw, because that makes total sense. 53-45 Gophers.
14:53 - Jackson beats Nolen again for the lay-up. This is embarrassing for Al, for real. It's also embarrassing for everybody else. Where the hell is the help every time this guy gets in the lane. He's 5 foot 9, somebody slide over and make him pass it, jesus christ. I think I learned that in third grade.
13:37 - Purdue just took the lead 54-53 on two Johnson free throws. Yes, they made up 8 points in a minute and a half. I'd go into detail but it's depressing. Let's just say that after a near flawless night from the team overall they've suddenly decided to do stupid crap on offense and stop playing defense. My mood is darkening.
12:48 - Nolen just passed up a wide-open three-pointer because he missed his last two attempts. God damn it's hard to win with a PG who can't/won't shoot. And, as I type, he then steals a pass for an easy dunk to give them back the lead. The love/hate is strong with this one. He's the Sam to my Diane.
11:37 - Iverson with literally the worst defensive play I've ever seen to give Johnson a three-point play. He's half-fronting him and decides to try to steal the entry lob but half-way there realizes he can't get it and stops, but by then he's so far out of position he's really just rubbing up on Johnson's hip and giving Johnson a wide open layup and instead of saying "Fuck it, I fucked up" and letting him score, he kind of pelvis-checks him but not hard enough so he can't score, just perfectly hard enough to get called for a foul. Brilliant.
10:51 - You know what would be really god damn awesome? If they could avoid allowing Johnson to catch the ball when he's already in the lane. You're allowed to push him out before the ball gets there, girls.
10:09 - Nolen again passes up the wide open three. Even if he misses he really, really needs to shoot that shot.
9:44 - Sampson might actually be retarded.
8:14 - Chip Armelin is suddenly everywhere. Announcer guy wants us to know that Chip Armelin "did a great job of pulling out." That's what Mrs. W said last night.
7:47 - Steal by Nolen, then Rodney decides to just glide with the ball and not really bothering putting it on the floor. Turns out the refs don't like that very much. We're tied here at 61 folks. Barn-burner. Need more expensive fancy wine.
7:25 - Remember in Major League how Willie Mays Hayes had to do pushups every time he hit the ball in the air? I'm starting to think Mbakwe should do push-ups every time he doesn't get a rebound. Good lord.
7:00 - Nolen with his patented "drive into the lane pick up the dribble with no idea what to do and turn it over." I don't like this Nolen. I like the gooder Nolen.
5:55 - Nolen with the rip right out of Moore's hands, leading to a lay-up and possible three point play by Rodney. This is the Nolen which is the good one. He's like some kind of god damn two-face. In fact, I'm going to roll with it. He even kind of looks like him:
4:35 - Sampson gives the Gophers the lead with a nice hook in the lane, which naturally leads to these announcers having to gush about his dad and then show footage of him from when he played for Virginia. I can't even express how old that has gotten, I can't even imagine how much our Ralph must hate that. I'm surprised he hasn't gone all Oedipal yet.
4:12 - We're down to 14 on the shot clock before Nolen passes the ball. Timeout, Gophers. Thank god. Tubby is a master at drawing up out-of-bounds plays after a time-out (see: Ohio State game). This is sure to lead to points.
4:00 - Apparently the play was for Sampson to can an 18-footer. Ok then. Sampson jumpers are kind of like a handjob from a fat chick. It's not really what you want, there are better options, and it's not the way things are supposed to go, but if it works you'll take it and be happy.
3:34 - Tied again. Time to figure out a way to get the Hoff a look. Or Nolen, who had another wide open three and this time didn't turn it down, and buried that sumbitch. Hey, if Lewis freaking Jackson is going to be perfect from the free-throw line even though he only shoots 60% on the year and is going to hit a fall-away three, we get to have Nolen hit a couple treys. It's only right.
2:05 - Gophers 70, Purdue 67, Boilers ball and a timeout. Great googily moogily, this game reminds me why I love college ball and specifically the Gophers. Please don't make me remember why I hate them.
1:45 - After Ryne Smith misses a wide open three (thank you), Purdue grabs the board and it leads to Moore with an open three from about 23 feet. He hits backboard first and it clangs away. Seriously, something is wrong with Moore. This is three straight just awful shooting games. I mean, it's good for the Gophers and all, but wow.
1:12 - Hoff drops the ball out of bounds. Shit. Still a three-point game. Wow, not off Hoff. Should have been a foul and if not should have been Gopher ball. Yuck.
0:53 - Rodney blocks Jackson's shot and it ends up Gopher ball. Remember how I talked about how when Jackson drives there needed to be people coming to help? If you don't recognize how I'm a bonafide god damn genius I'm going to drive to your house and shoot you to death. With logic and trivia.
0:30 - White guy on Nolen! White guy on Nolen! Drive! Drive!
0:27 - Yes! He drives and is fouled. Ha ha, stupid white people. Go play hockey.
0:25 - Naturally, Nolen misses. Did I mention it was 1-and-1? Freaking great. Guaranteed E'Twaun Moore three-pointer here, even though he hasn't hit shit all night.
0:10 - Timeout Purdue because the Boilers are running around like a bunch of guys playing in an intramural league who decided to go get blitzed before their game. Which I assume is all of them.
0:10 - Announcer guy's big plan is for Ryne Smith, the smallest guy on the court other than Lew-Jack, to set a single screen to get JaJuan open for a three-pointer, even though he's not actually a three-point shooter. God this guy is a freakin' idiot.
0:00 - Ball game. Gophers win 70-67. Apparently Matt Painer went to the Tubby Smith school of drawing up plays because Purdue ended up with DJ freaking Byrd shooting up a forced three pointer. Brilliant.
Awesome awesome win for the Gophers. I said this wasn't a must-win, but getting it here is just so big. Not only does it give them another marquee win, but it proves that they are a quality team, something that has been in question since Puerto Rico. I'm a very happy guy right now.
And by the way, check out what this guy predicted this game's score to be (at the bottom).
19:28 - Colton Iverson (starting for Trevor Mbakwe) with a really nice move, taking the ball from the free-throw line to the block with two dribbles, backing in on whoever Purdue's dorky white center is, faking to the left and tossing up a nice jump hook to the right. Swish. Honestly that whole thing was a thing of beauty. It's amazing how he can do that and then look like the fat kid who quit hockey to play basketball on the 8th grade B team the next trip. I coached 8th grade B team once. I know of what I speak, and it ain't pretty.
19:04 - Rodney draws E'Twaun Moore. I love this. Challenge Rodney and hope he steps up.
18:18 - Ok, JaJuan Johnson has now hit a three-pointer and an 18-footer to give Purdue a 5-4 lead. Hopefully Ralph will soon realize that you have to guard him on the perimeter as if he was a guard, not a typical plodding center. And he just hit a turnaround 12-footer over Iverson. This is ridiculous. We on this blog have been calling him "The college KG" since his sophomore year (because we have such an eye for talent), but that might not be high enough praise.
16:58 - And he hits a turnaround over Ralph. This is just ridiculous. I think "The college Jesus" might not be high enough praise.
16:16 - Trevor Mbakwe in to a nice ovation. I approve of that.
15:53 - Rodney and Nolen can't decide if there's supposed to be a switch on a pick, leading to a wide open three-pointer for Purdue and a 12-6 lead. I don't know if the Gopher players are dumb or if Tubby just can't coach, but this shit happens way too often.
15:50 - By the way, how about everybody out there pays attention to flights from MSP to Chicago (either airport) leaving either the 17th or 18th of March and returning the 20th and then email me if you find something cheap. Sound good? Thanks guys, you're the best.
14:59 - Mbakwe draws the foul inside and that might have been against Johnson. I'd know for certain if this announcing team was remotely competent, but instead they're busy telling us that the only way to stop E'Twaun Moore is to hope he gets food poisoning. Really, jackass? I know you're trying to be cute but it turns out you're just a retard.
14:30 - Austin Hollins with a nice take for a lay-up and the foul, cutting the lead to 14-12 (13 if he makes the free-throw). Where the hell has he been? And he misses the free-throw. Hollins has been awfully non-descript for several weeks. I know that's probably typical, but I liked it better when he was a tish more dynamic.
12:53 - Looking like a white-boy shooting battle might be breaking out between Blake and Ryne Smith. My money's on Blake.
12:03 - Noeln for three! And we're tied at 17. Do you remember in my preview of this game how I said D.J. Byrd was the new Brian Cardinal. Well, he's in the game and he's rockin' black socks, a shooting sleeve, and some sort of tank top under his jersey. He just looks annoying.
11:44 - I love how they have Magic Johnson talking about "content of character." I love the guy, he's still my favorite all-time NBA player besides Billy Hoyle, but this is the guy who cheated on his wife for years and years to the point where he contracted HIV and was damn lucky he didn't end up giving it to her or his kid. I really don't think a "content of character" piece is really the place for the Magic Man.
10:17 - This announcer is so bad I seriously want to kill him. My head is literally exploding right now.
9:43 - God damn this ramen is hot! Why you gotta play me like that, ramen?
9:00 - Nolen airballs a three. That's more like it. 22-21 Purdue thanks to a DJ Dickface three-pointer.
8:31 - Chip Armelin just stole Moe Hargrow's move. He got the ball on the break on a 2-on-2 situation, saw the Purdue's guy guarding him was a white dude, and just took it right at him and ended up scoring. Hargrow used to do that every time.
7:48 - Lewis Jackson now abusing Al Nolen for back to back lay-ups. That's not supposed to happen. I thought Nolen was a better defender than that.
6:54 - Jackson splits the top of the zone (Nolen & Armelin) and finds Moore for a wide open three. I know the guy is quick, but that's just awful. Just awful. Once again, either these guys are kind of dumb or Tubby is an overrated coach.
5:26 - Nobody bothers to pick up Barlow on the wing and he coasts in for a lay-up. The amount of mistakes this team makes on a nightly basis is mind-boggling. I'm starting to think they're more talented than I give them credit for, just because they can actually compete despite making so many dumb plays.
3:23 - Sampson gives the Gophers the lead back at 34-33 with a jump hook over Johnson, but the importantly is that he got the ball on teh block, ignored the double-team, and aggressively went for the bucket. I don't even care that he made it, just showing that kind of aggressiveness is a good sign.
2:45 - Jackson tried driving on Nolen again, but this time Nolen blocks his shot and causes the jump ball. Much better.
1:21 - Rodney misses an alley-oop dunk. Freaking awesome.
HALF - Gophers lead 41-40, and that was a great, great half of basketball on the offensive end. Even their half-court sets are looking smooth and and working. JaJuan Johnson (18 pts already) is ridiculously hot and making everything, but they've managed to take E'Twaun Moore out of the game for the most part (1-8 shooting). If the Gophers keep playing like this the rest of the game, they're going to take this one. That Lewis Jackson/Al Nolen match-up might be the key to the game.
19:42 - That play where Blake comes from the corner off a double-pick and curls to the free-throw line seemingly works every time. I'm thinking his rep as a guy who only shoots threes leads to poor defenders on him, and when he takes that cut further inside they can't keep up. With a sample size of tonight, that certainly looks to be the case, because Ryne Smith isn't going to win any defensive awards.
18:41 - Sampson goes to the deck to dig out a steal, and it leads to a three-pointer by Blake to give the Gophers a 46-40 lead. They just have more energy right now, and Purdue seems near meltdown mode. Of course, this is usually where the rug gets pulled out and the Boilers go on a 11-2 run.
16:59 - Lewis Jackson just hit a fadeaway three-pointer. Lewis Jackson can't shoot, and never shoots threes, and only chucked up that one because of the shot clock about to expire. Great. And just to add insult to injury, announcer guy tells us that Jackson is back from injury and healthy and is hitting 45% of this three-pointers this year. But, in reality, he's 1-5 on the season. So this guy is still a jackdonkey.
16:11 - Hoff from 28 feet. Dude is dialed tonight. I'm hoping we get a heat-check from 35, Jake Sullivan style.
15:14 - Hoff hits the jumper on that same curl pick play, and is fouled. Tonight is his night, folks.
15:14 - Of course he misses the free throw, because that makes total sense. 53-45 Gophers.
14:53 - Jackson beats Nolen again for the lay-up. This is embarrassing for Al, for real. It's also embarrassing for everybody else. Where the hell is the help every time this guy gets in the lane. He's 5 foot 9, somebody slide over and make him pass it, jesus christ. I think I learned that in third grade.
13:37 - Purdue just took the lead 54-53 on two Johnson free throws. Yes, they made up 8 points in a minute and a half. I'd go into detail but it's depressing. Let's just say that after a near flawless night from the team overall they've suddenly decided to do stupid crap on offense and stop playing defense. My mood is darkening.
12:48 - Nolen just passed up a wide-open three-pointer because he missed his last two attempts. God damn it's hard to win with a PG who can't/won't shoot. And, as I type, he then steals a pass for an easy dunk to give them back the lead. The love/hate is strong with this one. He's the Sam to my Diane.
11:37 - Iverson with literally the worst defensive play I've ever seen to give Johnson a three-point play. He's half-fronting him and decides to try to steal the entry lob but half-way there realizes he can't get it and stops, but by then he's so far out of position he's really just rubbing up on Johnson's hip and giving Johnson a wide open layup and instead of saying "Fuck it, I fucked up" and letting him score, he kind of pelvis-checks him but not hard enough so he can't score, just perfectly hard enough to get called for a foul. Brilliant.
10:51 - You know what would be really god damn awesome? If they could avoid allowing Johnson to catch the ball when he's already in the lane. You're allowed to push him out before the ball gets there, girls.
10:09 - Nolen again passes up the wide open three. Even if he misses he really, really needs to shoot that shot.
9:44 - Sampson might actually be retarded.
8:14 - Chip Armelin is suddenly everywhere. Announcer guy wants us to know that Chip Armelin "did a great job of pulling out." That's what Mrs. W said last night.
7:47 - Steal by Nolen, then Rodney decides to just glide with the ball and not really bothering putting it on the floor. Turns out the refs don't like that very much. We're tied here at 61 folks. Barn-burner. Need more expensive fancy wine.
7:25 - Remember in Major League how Willie Mays Hayes had to do pushups every time he hit the ball in the air? I'm starting to think Mbakwe should do push-ups every time he doesn't get a rebound. Good lord.
7:00 - Nolen with his patented "drive into the lane pick up the dribble with no idea what to do and turn it over." I don't like this Nolen. I like the gooder Nolen.
5:55 - Nolen with the rip right out of Moore's hands, leading to a lay-up and possible three point play by Rodney. This is the Nolen which is the good one. He's like some kind of god damn two-face. In fact, I'm going to roll with it. He even kind of looks like him:
4:35 - Sampson gives the Gophers the lead with a nice hook in the lane, which naturally leads to these announcers having to gush about his dad and then show footage of him from when he played for Virginia. I can't even express how old that has gotten, I can't even imagine how much our Ralph must hate that. I'm surprised he hasn't gone all Oedipal yet.
4:12 - We're down to 14 on the shot clock before Nolen passes the ball. Timeout, Gophers. Thank god. Tubby is a master at drawing up out-of-bounds plays after a time-out (see: Ohio State game). This is sure to lead to points.
4:00 - Apparently the play was for Sampson to can an 18-footer. Ok then. Sampson jumpers are kind of like a handjob from a fat chick. It's not really what you want, there are better options, and it's not the way things are supposed to go, but if it works you'll take it and be happy.
3:34 - Tied again. Time to figure out a way to get the Hoff a look. Or Nolen, who had another wide open three and this time didn't turn it down, and buried that sumbitch. Hey, if Lewis freaking Jackson is going to be perfect from the free-throw line even though he only shoots 60% on the year and is going to hit a fall-away three, we get to have Nolen hit a couple treys. It's only right.
2:05 - Gophers 70, Purdue 67, Boilers ball and a timeout. Great googily moogily, this game reminds me why I love college ball and specifically the Gophers. Please don't make me remember why I hate them.
1:45 - After Ryne Smith misses a wide open three (thank you), Purdue grabs the board and it leads to Moore with an open three from about 23 feet. He hits backboard first and it clangs away. Seriously, something is wrong with Moore. This is three straight just awful shooting games. I mean, it's good for the Gophers and all, but wow.
1:12 - Hoff drops the ball out of bounds. Shit. Still a three-point game. Wow, not off Hoff. Should have been a foul and if not should have been Gopher ball. Yuck.
0:53 - Rodney blocks Jackson's shot and it ends up Gopher ball. Remember how I talked about how when Jackson drives there needed to be people coming to help? If you don't recognize how I'm a bonafide god damn genius I'm going to drive to your house and shoot you to death. With logic and trivia.
0:30 - White guy on Nolen! White guy on Nolen! Drive! Drive!
0:27 - Yes! He drives and is fouled. Ha ha, stupid white people. Go play hockey.
0:25 - Naturally, Nolen misses. Did I mention it was 1-and-1? Freaking great. Guaranteed E'Twaun Moore three-pointer here, even though he hasn't hit shit all night.
0:10 - Timeout Purdue because the Boilers are running around like a bunch of guys playing in an intramural league who decided to go get blitzed before their game. Which I assume is all of them.
0:10 - Announcer guy's big plan is for Ryne Smith, the smallest guy on the court other than Lew-Jack, to set a single screen to get JaJuan open for a three-pointer, even though he's not actually a three-point shooter. God this guy is a freakin' idiot.
0:00 - Ball game. Gophers win 70-67. Apparently Matt Painer went to the Tubby Smith school of drawing up plays because Purdue ended up with DJ freaking Byrd shooting up a forced three pointer. Brilliant.
Awesome awesome win for the Gophers. I said this wasn't a must-win, but getting it here is just so big. Not only does it give them another marquee win, but it proves that they are a quality team, something that has been in question since Puerto Rico. I'm a very happy guy right now.
And by the way, check out what this guy predicted this game's score to be (at the bottom).
Wednesday, January 12, 2011
Game Preview: Minnesota Gophers vs. Purdue Boilermakers
Can you be an NCAA title contender with two stars and a bunch of role-players? I was one of many to write off the Boilers chances after Robbie Hummel went down with yet another injury, but they are looking awfully good thus far this year. And although I can't remember the last team that was so reliant on two players (JaJuan Johnson and E'Twaun Moore score 50% of the team's points), those two might be good enough and might have the perfect complimentary pieces around them to make a big run come March.
Johnson, the best player in the Big Ten in my estimation, is the team's leading scorer (19.4 per game), rebounder (8.3 per game), and shot-blocker (2.5 per game). He is so versatile with the ball that he's nearly impossible to stop. He has a variety of moves on the inside, can hit a stand-still jumper out to 18 feet, and has a really nice turnaround that's very reminiscent of Hakim Warrick. He's also one of the best rebounders in the conference, on either end, and he's going to make Sampson/Mbakwe work and work hard on both sides of the ball. Really the only weakness I can think of is that I don't recall him being particularly adept at putting the ball on the floor, so if the Gopher defenders can get out on him on the perimeter and force him to give up the ball, then try to keep him off the block, the Gophers do have at least an outside shot at controlling him - although he's scored in double digits every game this year.
Moore (18.8 pts, 6.0 rebs, 3.1 assists, 1.7 steals per game) is just as big a concern, if not bigger given the Gophers' lack of perimeter defense this year. Moore can score from anywhere - he's an excellent shooter from three (42%), has a quality mid-range game, and can put the ball on the ground and drive. He's struggled the last two games from the outside (1-8 from three combined, just 15 total points), and the Gophers will need that to keep up. Even if his shot isn't falling, however, he does enough other things on the court with his rebounding and ability to find open teammates that he can still have a big impact on the game.
Simply put, limit those two and you have a chance. There is, however, one other major concern I'll point out, and that's junior guard Ryne Smith. Simply put, he's Hoffarber/Diebler in black (uniform, not skin). Since fellow shooter John Hart went down to injury, Smith has really stepped up his game. Since Big Ten play started, he's been unconscious. In Purdue's four conference games he's shot 5-6, 2-7, 5-5, and 6-9 from behind the line for a 67% accuracy mark, and is averaging 17 points per game in those four contests. All he does is shoot threes, but he does it extremely well (52% overall for the season). With all the attention that Johnson and Moore draw, he's going to get open looks. Against a team like Minnesota and their poor perimeter defense, he's going to get even more.
The last two individuals I want to mention for Purdue and Lewis Jackson and D.J. Byrd. Jackson is the lightning quick midget point guard who is almost impossible to keep out of the lane. He's not much for shooting (just 1-5 on threes this year), but uses his quickness to get lay-ups and short floaters as well as set up teammates for open looks (4.2 assists per game). He's basically a slightly better offensive version of Al Nolen without the defense. Byrd, on the other hand, is the next in the Brian Cardinal/Chris Kramer line. I mention him here not for you to fear him, but rather to warn you that you are going to be annoyed by him.
As a team, the Boilers are formidable as well. They rank 24th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 2nd in defensive, and the only thing they don't do well is that they're slightly below the national average in free-throw percentage (68.1% vs. 68.6%). In fact, they are so solid on defense the only metrics they don't rank in the top 50 nationally in are blocked shot percentage (86th) and steal percentage (153rd), but that doesn't really matter since apparently they just make you throw the ball out of bounds all day (24th in turnover percentage). It's going to be tough going on the offensive end for your beloved rodents.
It's going to be tough all around. Purdue is an outstanding team, and their would be no shame in losing this one, which is why it's not a "must-win" game. It is, however, a "must-compete" game. All we've seen out of this team since the West Virginia game (other than controversy) is poor performances against bad teams at home, and decent showings against good teams on the road. This is the Gophers' first opportunity to take on a good team at home, and they need to come out strong, play well, and keep this one tight if not win it. A three-point loss will convince me we have an NCAA caliber team, while a 15-point loss will have me making my NIT ticket reservations.
If the Gophers can limit at least one of Johnson or Moore while keeping the three-point line in check, continue to be a strong rebounding team, get out in transition and run whenever they can to avoid the half-court game, and get the ball into the bigs in the paint when they are in the half-court offense, they can win this. A lot of ifs, yes, but this is the kind of game a good team can use to make a statement. I am positive I am making a mistake, but something tells me this is exactly what the Gophers are going to do. It goes against everything in my pessimistic nature, but:
Minnesota 70, Purdue 66.
Johnson, the best player in the Big Ten in my estimation, is the team's leading scorer (19.4 per game), rebounder (8.3 per game), and shot-blocker (2.5 per game). He is so versatile with the ball that he's nearly impossible to stop. He has a variety of moves on the inside, can hit a stand-still jumper out to 18 feet, and has a really nice turnaround that's very reminiscent of Hakim Warrick. He's also one of the best rebounders in the conference, on either end, and he's going to make Sampson/Mbakwe work and work hard on both sides of the ball. Really the only weakness I can think of is that I don't recall him being particularly adept at putting the ball on the floor, so if the Gopher defenders can get out on him on the perimeter and force him to give up the ball, then try to keep him off the block, the Gophers do have at least an outside shot at controlling him - although he's scored in double digits every game this year.
Moore (18.8 pts, 6.0 rebs, 3.1 assists, 1.7 steals per game) is just as big a concern, if not bigger given the Gophers' lack of perimeter defense this year. Moore can score from anywhere - he's an excellent shooter from three (42%), has a quality mid-range game, and can put the ball on the ground and drive. He's struggled the last two games from the outside (1-8 from three combined, just 15 total points), and the Gophers will need that to keep up. Even if his shot isn't falling, however, he does enough other things on the court with his rebounding and ability to find open teammates that he can still have a big impact on the game.
Simply put, limit those two and you have a chance. There is, however, one other major concern I'll point out, and that's junior guard Ryne Smith. Simply put, he's Hoffarber/Diebler in black (uniform, not skin). Since fellow shooter John Hart went down to injury, Smith has really stepped up his game. Since Big Ten play started, he's been unconscious. In Purdue's four conference games he's shot 5-6, 2-7, 5-5, and 6-9 from behind the line for a 67% accuracy mark, and is averaging 17 points per game in those four contests. All he does is shoot threes, but he does it extremely well (52% overall for the season). With all the attention that Johnson and Moore draw, he's going to get open looks. Against a team like Minnesota and their poor perimeter defense, he's going to get even more.
The last two individuals I want to mention for Purdue and Lewis Jackson and D.J. Byrd. Jackson is the lightning quick midget point guard who is almost impossible to keep out of the lane. He's not much for shooting (just 1-5 on threes this year), but uses his quickness to get lay-ups and short floaters as well as set up teammates for open looks (4.2 assists per game). He's basically a slightly better offensive version of Al Nolen without the defense. Byrd, on the other hand, is the next in the Brian Cardinal/Chris Kramer line. I mention him here not for you to fear him, but rather to warn you that you are going to be annoyed by him.
As a team, the Boilers are formidable as well. They rank 24th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 2nd in defensive, and the only thing they don't do well is that they're slightly below the national average in free-throw percentage (68.1% vs. 68.6%). In fact, they are so solid on defense the only metrics they don't rank in the top 50 nationally in are blocked shot percentage (86th) and steal percentage (153rd), but that doesn't really matter since apparently they just make you throw the ball out of bounds all day (24th in turnover percentage). It's going to be tough going on the offensive end for your beloved rodents.
It's going to be tough all around. Purdue is an outstanding team, and their would be no shame in losing this one, which is why it's not a "must-win" game. It is, however, a "must-compete" game. All we've seen out of this team since the West Virginia game (other than controversy) is poor performances against bad teams at home, and decent showings against good teams on the road. This is the Gophers' first opportunity to take on a good team at home, and they need to come out strong, play well, and keep this one tight if not win it. A three-point loss will convince me we have an NCAA caliber team, while a 15-point loss will have me making my NIT ticket reservations.
If the Gophers can limit at least one of Johnson or Moore while keeping the three-point line in check, continue to be a strong rebounding team, get out in transition and run whenever they can to avoid the half-court game, and get the ball into the bigs in the paint when they are in the half-court offense, they can win this. A lot of ifs, yes, but this is the kind of game a good team can use to make a statement. I am positive I am making a mistake, but something tells me this is exactly what the Gophers are going to do. It goes against everything in my pessimistic nature, but:
Minnesota 70, Purdue 66.
Monday, May 10, 2010
Week in Review - 5/10/2010
Well the Players Championship was pretty lame. Nobody within sniffing distance of the lead played well on Sunday with the exception of Tim Clark, letting that weird little midget and his gay-ass long putter to end up taking the win. I refuse to acknowledge he is awesome despite the fact that I was planning on bestowing that status on whoever won at Sawgrass, because I refuse to compliment anyone who uses a long putter - and little people creep me out. Also amongst the things done by creepy little people that I won't be acknowledging is Dallas Braden's perfect game against the Rays on Sunday. To throw a perfecto against that lineup would normally be amazing, but every since his little 12-year-old-boy-like outburst against A-Rod for "stepping on my mount" I can't stand the little guy. Plus his name is Dallas.
Actually, I suppose I could just put an entry for "Dwarves" in the Who Was Awesome section and talk about these two, but I don't really want to get into it because I have a couple of small friends and I'm not sure what side of the normal/freaky line they fall on. So let's just ignore these oompa loompas this week and move on. Agreed? Agreed.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Nick Blackburn. Pretty tough to ignore the week Blacky pulled out, going 2-0 with a complete game against Detroit earlier this week and then following it up with seven shutout innings on Sunday against Baltimore. I really don't know what to make of him. He doesn't strike anyone out (just 9 this year in 40 innings), but he doesn't walk anybody (11) either, and when he keeps the ball down and gets batters to keep it on the ground he can be very effective, like in that CG against Detroit where he got 22 ground balls to just 11 fly balls. Of course, when he's bad and batters are hitting the ball in the air, he generally gets shelled. All said, he's a good middle of the rotation starter, just like every other Twins' pitcher not named Liriano. In other words, he's good enough to win more than he loses, and with this team's offense should have a solid year.
2. LeBron James. Wow, talk about making a statement. After the Celtics stole game 2 in Cleveland to even the series at 1-1 there was a lot of chatter about how the Celtics were going to win, and the Cavs choked and were likely to choke the series away and blah blah blah. I'm guessing LeBron heard that, because he absolutely took the Celtics behind the woodshed on Friday and showed them his dark secret. He scored 21 points in the first quarter on something like 9-11 shooting, grabbed every rebound, and assisted on several other Cav baskets in route to a huge 1st quarter lead that ended up in becoming a huge blowout win. I've really never seen anything like it. Against a very good defensive team, James could literally do anything he wanted. I don't watch a ton of NBA, but now I know what all those NBA dorks are talking about with the "greatest ever" talk. Just wow. Of course.....
3. Rajon Rondo. Thanks to Rondo, you can't count the Celtics out just yet, because just as when LeBron is on nobody on the Celtics can stop him, the Cavs don't have anyone on their roster who can stop Rondo when he gets it going either. Paul Pierce absolutely sucked on Sunday, but it didn't matter since Rondo basically became LeBron (who, by the way, gets every single call to the point of embarrassment), putting up 29 points, grabbing 18 rebounds, and dishing 13 assists. Like James in the previous game, Rondo could do whatever he wanted, whenever he wanted. And as impressive as LeBron was, there's still a sense that he could do it whenever he wanted and sometimes coasts on his jumper. With Rondo it was more impressive, because you really got that "raising his game" vibe. Very fun to watch.
4. Purdue. With JaJuan Johnson and E'Twaun Moore having put themselves in the NBA draft but not hiring an agent, there was a pretty clear best and worst case scenario here. If Johnson and Moore stayed in the draft, the Boilers would become Robbie Hummel plus talented question-marks and would likely be a fringe NCAA type team with a Sweet 16 upside and an NIT downside. If those two pulled out of the draft, the become a national title contender where a Sweet 16 elimination would be a failure. Since I'm putting this team in the Awesome category, you can probably guess that Moore and Johnson have decided to return. Actually, with Talor Battle, Mike Davis, and Demetri McCamey all doing the right thing and coming back to school, the Big Ten is only losing Evan Turner and that dumbass Manny Harris to early entry. Great. I love it when the conference gets stronger.
5. Vladimir Guerrero. Monster week for Vlad. It seemed like every time I was watching Sportscenter they were showing a Vlad home run this week. And he certainly was ripping the ball, hitting .360 and slugging .840 this week with 4 home runs and 13 ribbies in the 7 games, probably because he's feeling threatened by the awesomeness that is Justin Smoak. Whether it's Smoak-related, the change of scenery to Tejas, or health related, it's working. After a disastrous 2009 where he hit just .295 and OPSed .794 with 15 home runs (all career worsts) , his stats this year are at a much more robust .348 average with an OPS of .941, numbers much more suited to his prime years. Ponce de Leon was wrong. The Fountain of Youth isn't in Florida. It's in Texas. At the Alamo. In the Basement.
WHO SUCKED
1. Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw, a big-time SP propect for the Dodgers, had a very, very nice season last year - his second in the bigs. He was just 8-8, which doesn't really matter, and in 171 innings pitched he allowed just 119 hits while striking out 185. Those are pretty incredible numbers, which makes his struggles this year even more confusing. Going into Sunday he was sporting a 4.99 ERA this year (it was 2.79 last season) and a WHIP of 1.70 (it was 1.23 last year), and he hit his nadir (at least thus far) in a disaster of an outing last week against Milwaukee, where he lasted just 1 and 1/3 innings, giving up five hits and seven runs before getting yanked. I've watched Kershaw pitch a couple of times, and the kid has electric stuff. I'm not sure what the issue is, but I'm sure he'll get it figured out and start making morons look like fools at the plate again soon. Or he's in a death spiral and will be out of the league in two years. Since he actually bounced back with a really nice outing on Sunday and out-dueled Ubaldo, I'm betting against the death spiral thing.
2. Atlanta.. Starting with the Hawks, who are now down 0-3 to the Magic, and haven't even been close in a game yet, losing by 43, 14, and 30, and I literally watched three Hawks watch a missed Orlando three pointer bounce right back to the shooter, then continue watching as he waltzed in for an uncontested dunk. They can't shoot either, with their best shooting performance in the three games has been just 40%, and "star" Joe Johnson has practically torn-up the max contract someone was going to give him this offseason by chucking it up some stinkers: 10 pts (4-11 shooting) and 5 TOs in game 1, 5-16 shooting and just 2 rebounds in game 2, and just 8 points on 3-15 shooting in game 3. He's helped to guarantee that this is the most boringest series of the most boringest NBA playoffs ever. Seriously, three of the four series suck. At least Phoenix/LA and Cleveland/Orlando should make for a pretty good Final Four - as long as LA doesn't win again. And although the Braves haven't been terrible, they did toss out a couple of clunkers this week. First, they almost get perfected by Scott Olsen on Tuesday, and then on Friday night they let old man Moyer toss a complete game two-hitter against them, just his second shutout in the last seven years. And don't forget, this is the team that was no-hit by Ubaldo earlier this season as well. The Braves might not be a horrible team overall, but at their worst, they hit like a collection of nine Puntos. Or Kubels, at this point, jesus.
3. Tiger Woods. Well he made the cut at the Players, which is good, but had to withdraw in the middle of the fourth round due to a neck injury, which is bad. And his swing right now is all kinds of F'd up. Not only can he not hit a fairway to save his life (he only 6 last week at Quail Hollow), but he can't hit for distance either - he was dead last in driving distance this week at just 258 yards. Seriously, Brad Faxon thinks Tiger hits the ball like a girl. Clearly, he rushed himself back a bit early, and if he's smart he'll shut it down for a bit and maybe target the PGA Championship for his return. Of course, he won't be able to stay away from the rest of the majors, at a minimum, but I really think he needs to take a lot of time, and get himself back into the same shape he was before his wife lost her mind. He's at a very interesting crossroads, that's for sure. Can't wait to see how this goes down.
4. San Antonio Spurs. Speaking of boring series, I knew the Spurs window was closing, but I wasn't expecting it be slammed shut on their fingers with a 4-0 sweep by the Suns. I guess when, except for a couple of guys, every contributor on the team is either old or white Father Time can catch up pretty quickly. You might be tempted to chalk it up to the fact that they were playing the Suns and their unusual-ish style, but the Spurs have basically owned the Spurs over the years. Getting swept by the Sun in round 2 is probably more damaging and soul-baring than getting swept in the first round by the Mavs would have been. Realistically, they can hold on and be a non-threatening playoff team for a couple of years, but if they're smart it's time to start trying to get all the value they can out of whichever pieces they can move, otherwise they'll be looking at a long fall down the line.
5. Jason Kubel. As you probably know, I am Kubel's biggest fan. However, he is starting to lose even me, going just 3-15 this week and is still hitting just .209 this year and is still sitting on two home runs - the same amount as Orlando Hudson. He's still walking, which shows he hasn't completely lost it, and he isn't striking out significantly more often, but he just isn't hitting. I haven't seen a lot of hard hit balls right at people or miraculous plays to rob hits, it's more a bunch of super weak tappers at infielders and infield pop ups (he's doubled his IF popup % from last year) and he's now losing at-bats to Thome. I know one of these days he'll be back, and when he does he's going to be white hot, you can count on it. I just don't know when. So I'm going to try to jump start his season for him - we'll be benching him in fantasy this week. That practically guarantees he's going to break out. Or at least he better. I don't want to have to burn my Kubel shirt. It cost me like fifteen bucks.
Finally I'd like to add a couple more people that are awesome in honor of Mother's Day: Mama W and Grandma W. You both rock, and have been a huge influence on the person I have become.
Shame on you.
Actually, I suppose I could just put an entry for "Dwarves" in the Who Was Awesome section and talk about these two, but I don't really want to get into it because I have a couple of small friends and I'm not sure what side of the normal/freaky line they fall on. So let's just ignore these oompa loompas this week and move on. Agreed? Agreed.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Nick Blackburn. Pretty tough to ignore the week Blacky pulled out, going 2-0 with a complete game against Detroit earlier this week and then following it up with seven shutout innings on Sunday against Baltimore. I really don't know what to make of him. He doesn't strike anyone out (just 9 this year in 40 innings), but he doesn't walk anybody (11) either, and when he keeps the ball down and gets batters to keep it on the ground he can be very effective, like in that CG against Detroit where he got 22 ground balls to just 11 fly balls. Of course, when he's bad and batters are hitting the ball in the air, he generally gets shelled. All said, he's a good middle of the rotation starter, just like every other Twins' pitcher not named Liriano. In other words, he's good enough to win more than he loses, and with this team's offense should have a solid year.
2. LeBron James. Wow, talk about making a statement. After the Celtics stole game 2 in Cleveland to even the series at 1-1 there was a lot of chatter about how the Celtics were going to win, and the Cavs choked and were likely to choke the series away and blah blah blah. I'm guessing LeBron heard that, because he absolutely took the Celtics behind the woodshed on Friday and showed them his dark secret. He scored 21 points in the first quarter on something like 9-11 shooting, grabbed every rebound, and assisted on several other Cav baskets in route to a huge 1st quarter lead that ended up in becoming a huge blowout win. I've really never seen anything like it. Against a very good defensive team, James could literally do anything he wanted. I don't watch a ton of NBA, but now I know what all those NBA dorks are talking about with the "greatest ever" talk. Just wow. Of course.....
3. Rajon Rondo. Thanks to Rondo, you can't count the Celtics out just yet, because just as when LeBron is on nobody on the Celtics can stop him, the Cavs don't have anyone on their roster who can stop Rondo when he gets it going either. Paul Pierce absolutely sucked on Sunday, but it didn't matter since Rondo basically became LeBron (who, by the way, gets every single call to the point of embarrassment), putting up 29 points, grabbing 18 rebounds, and dishing 13 assists. Like James in the previous game, Rondo could do whatever he wanted, whenever he wanted. And as impressive as LeBron was, there's still a sense that he could do it whenever he wanted and sometimes coasts on his jumper. With Rondo it was more impressive, because you really got that "raising his game" vibe. Very fun to watch.
4. Purdue. With JaJuan Johnson and E'Twaun Moore having put themselves in the NBA draft but not hiring an agent, there was a pretty clear best and worst case scenario here. If Johnson and Moore stayed in the draft, the Boilers would become Robbie Hummel plus talented question-marks and would likely be a fringe NCAA type team with a Sweet 16 upside and an NIT downside. If those two pulled out of the draft, the become a national title contender where a Sweet 16 elimination would be a failure. Since I'm putting this team in the Awesome category, you can probably guess that Moore and Johnson have decided to return. Actually, with Talor Battle, Mike Davis, and Demetri McCamey all doing the right thing and coming back to school, the Big Ten is only losing Evan Turner and that dumbass Manny Harris to early entry. Great. I love it when the conference gets stronger.
5. Vladimir Guerrero. Monster week for Vlad. It seemed like every time I was watching Sportscenter they were showing a Vlad home run this week. And he certainly was ripping the ball, hitting .360 and slugging .840 this week with 4 home runs and 13 ribbies in the 7 games, probably because he's feeling threatened by the awesomeness that is Justin Smoak. Whether it's Smoak-related, the change of scenery to Tejas, or health related, it's working. After a disastrous 2009 where he hit just .295 and OPSed .794 with 15 home runs (all career worsts) , his stats this year are at a much more robust .348 average with an OPS of .941, numbers much more suited to his prime years. Ponce de Leon was wrong. The Fountain of Youth isn't in Florida. It's in Texas. At the Alamo. In the Basement.
WHO SUCKED
1. Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw, a big-time SP propect for the Dodgers, had a very, very nice season last year - his second in the bigs. He was just 8-8, which doesn't really matter, and in 171 innings pitched he allowed just 119 hits while striking out 185. Those are pretty incredible numbers, which makes his struggles this year even more confusing. Going into Sunday he was sporting a 4.99 ERA this year (it was 2.79 last season) and a WHIP of 1.70 (it was 1.23 last year), and he hit his nadir (at least thus far) in a disaster of an outing last week against Milwaukee, where he lasted just 1 and 1/3 innings, giving up five hits and seven runs before getting yanked. I've watched Kershaw pitch a couple of times, and the kid has electric stuff. I'm not sure what the issue is, but I'm sure he'll get it figured out and start making morons look like fools at the plate again soon. Or he's in a death spiral and will be out of the league in two years. Since he actually bounced back with a really nice outing on Sunday and out-dueled Ubaldo, I'm betting against the death spiral thing.
2. Atlanta.. Starting with the Hawks, who are now down 0-3 to the Magic, and haven't even been close in a game yet, losing by 43, 14, and 30, and I literally watched three Hawks watch a missed Orlando three pointer bounce right back to the shooter, then continue watching as he waltzed in for an uncontested dunk. They can't shoot either, with their best shooting performance in the three games has been just 40%, and "star" Joe Johnson has practically torn-up the max contract someone was going to give him this offseason by chucking it up some stinkers: 10 pts (4-11 shooting) and 5 TOs in game 1, 5-16 shooting and just 2 rebounds in game 2, and just 8 points on 3-15 shooting in game 3. He's helped to guarantee that this is the most boringest series of the most boringest NBA playoffs ever. Seriously, three of the four series suck. At least Phoenix/LA and Cleveland/Orlando should make for a pretty good Final Four - as long as LA doesn't win again. And although the Braves haven't been terrible, they did toss out a couple of clunkers this week. First, they almost get perfected by Scott Olsen on Tuesday, and then on Friday night they let old man Moyer toss a complete game two-hitter against them, just his second shutout in the last seven years. And don't forget, this is the team that was no-hit by Ubaldo earlier this season as well. The Braves might not be a horrible team overall, but at their worst, they hit like a collection of nine Puntos. Or Kubels, at this point, jesus.
3. Tiger Woods. Well he made the cut at the Players, which is good, but had to withdraw in the middle of the fourth round due to a neck injury, which is bad. And his swing right now is all kinds of F'd up. Not only can he not hit a fairway to save his life (he only 6 last week at Quail Hollow), but he can't hit for distance either - he was dead last in driving distance this week at just 258 yards. Seriously, Brad Faxon thinks Tiger hits the ball like a girl. Clearly, he rushed himself back a bit early, and if he's smart he'll shut it down for a bit and maybe target the PGA Championship for his return. Of course, he won't be able to stay away from the rest of the majors, at a minimum, but I really think he needs to take a lot of time, and get himself back into the same shape he was before his wife lost her mind. He's at a very interesting crossroads, that's for sure. Can't wait to see how this goes down.
4. San Antonio Spurs. Speaking of boring series, I knew the Spurs window was closing, but I wasn't expecting it be slammed shut on their fingers with a 4-0 sweep by the Suns. I guess when, except for a couple of guys, every contributor on the team is either old or white Father Time can catch up pretty quickly. You might be tempted to chalk it up to the fact that they were playing the Suns and their unusual-ish style, but the Spurs have basically owned the Spurs over the years. Getting swept by the Sun in round 2 is probably more damaging and soul-baring than getting swept in the first round by the Mavs would have been. Realistically, they can hold on and be a non-threatening playoff team for a couple of years, but if they're smart it's time to start trying to get all the value they can out of whichever pieces they can move, otherwise they'll be looking at a long fall down the line.
5. Jason Kubel. As you probably know, I am Kubel's biggest fan. However, he is starting to lose even me, going just 3-15 this week and is still hitting just .209 this year and is still sitting on two home runs - the same amount as Orlando Hudson. He's still walking, which shows he hasn't completely lost it, and he isn't striking out significantly more often, but he just isn't hitting. I haven't seen a lot of hard hit balls right at people or miraculous plays to rob hits, it's more a bunch of super weak tappers at infielders and infield pop ups (he's doubled his IF popup % from last year) and he's now losing at-bats to Thome. I know one of these days he'll be back, and when he does he's going to be white hot, you can count on it. I just don't know when. So I'm going to try to jump start his season for him - we'll be benching him in fantasy this week. That practically guarantees he's going to break out. Or at least he better. I don't want to have to burn my Kubel shirt. It cost me like fifteen bucks.
Finally I'd like to add a couple more people that are awesome in honor of Mother's Day: Mama W and Grandma W. You both rock, and have been a huge influence on the person I have become.
Shame on you.
Tuesday, February 23, 2010
Beat the Boilers
Like I said in my post from yesterday I can't believe how geeked out I am for this game, especially since Purdue is probably going to win by twenty. But I just can't help it. I can't wait for the game. I guess I'm a bit like Jennifer Aniston. She just knows that whatever guy she gets with is going to get sick of her and break her heart, but she keeps flinging herself at dudes anyway. That's me. But instead of dudes it means Gopher basketball. As far as you know.
On to your preview.
1. Mediocre team that desperately needs a win at home vs. a final four contender - what usually happens? Well, I detailed in the last post how UCONN beat WVU Monday night in a very similar position to what the Gophers are in. Checking back to last year, I found nine similar situations, where a team on the bubble is visited by a top 10 team: Maryland vs. #3 North Carolina, Cincinnati vs. #7 Louisville, Georgetown vs. #6 Louisville, Maryland vs. #7 Duke, UAB vs. #4 Memphis, VA Tech vs. #7 Duke, Maryland vs. #10 Wake Forest, Va Tech vs. #2 North Carolina, and West Virginia vs. #6 Louisville. The bubble team's record in those games: 1-9. Gulp. But hey, thanks to UCONN Bubble teams are undefeated in this type of game this year, so it's practically a lock for your precious Gophers.
2. How good is the big three of Purdue? Really, really good and getting better. E'Twaun Moore might be emerging as the real go-to guy on this team and he absolutely took over the game against Michigan State. JaJuan Johnson has added a 19-foot pull-up jumper to his already Hakim Warrick like game, and Robbie Hummel is steady as they come (except for his shooting slump the last three games which hopefully will continue). The three combine to score 65% of Purdue's points and grab 52% of the team's rebounds, and Hummel and Johnson are two of the most offensively efficient players in the country according to Ken Pom, and Moore has a higher effective field goal percentage than either of them. Oh, and Lewis Jackson is back and has seemingly solved his turnover issues from last year. Yeah, this all sounds real good.
3. What's been working for the Gophers the last two games? Offensive flow, keeping the ball moving in the half court, and the high/low. Against the Badgers they shot 48% while turning it over just 11 times and against the Hoosiers it was 56% and again just 11 turnovers, this time against 23 assists. That ball movement and just overall efficient offense is leading to a lot of open shots, as evidenced by the team's 14-29 three point shooting in the last two. Of course, Purdue is a better defensive team (6th in def. efficiency) than Wisconsin (20th) or Indiana (153rd), and I can't envision how the high/low would possibly work against the Boilers and their size, but moving the ball and finding open shots is going to be a huge key - as it is in pretty much every game of basketball since Naismith and his peach basket.
Defensively this new 3-2 zone has been very effective. Indiana and Wisconsin combined to shoot just 33% from three and 30% from two, and according to Myron Medcalf of the Star Tribune the two teams combined to score just 22 points in the paint. That's all well and good, and there's not doubt a properly executed zone with good athletes - which the Gophers have - can be a devastating defensive weapon, but Purdue ain't Wisconsin or Indiana. The Badgers are more reliant on the three for offense than Craig Hodges and Indiana flat out sucks. The Boilers don't rely on the three, and Moore, Johnson, and Hummel all attack the paint. We'll see just how good that zone is, and we'll see it in a hurry.
4. Who needs to step up? Honestly, everyone. This game isn't remotely close on talent, so it's going to take effort, smart-play, hustle, and some luck if the team is going to pull this one out. Hummel has shot just 8-26 in the last three so if he keeps that up it would be huge, but I'm not that worried about the defense, it's the scoring points part that concerns me. Westbrook is going to have to avoid the temptation to revert back to "the man", and in such a high-profile game you better believe he's going to be tempted. That's probably the #1 key to the game, how Westbrook plays within the offense. I mean, Devoe is going to have to play one of his best games of his career, Sampson is going to have to continue his evolution towards Big Man of the Century and check Johnson, Hoff is going to have to find open shots, and there will probably have to be a surprise hero here somewhere, but the Westbrook thing trumps all. If he's in "showcase my talent" mode, nothing else is going to matter.
5. Well, what do we think? I may be amped up for the game and even feeling a bit optimistic, but I am a realist at heart. Checking kenpom.com, they give the Gophers a 45% of winning this game and predict a one-point Purdue win. That's probably not too generous towards Minnesota. I think if the Gophers and Boilers play this game ten times, Purdue wins seven times - let's just hope this is one of the other three.
Purdue 66, Minnesota 62
As far as other bubble-related news goes, two huge developments last night. The first was Florida notching a huge win by beating Tennessee, and beating them by double-digits. This is everything the Gators needed, and gives them not only another win, but a big-time signature victory. They helped themselves out immensely.
Second, and even more impactful to the bubble, Northern Iowa lost to Evansville in a shocker. Not only was UNI a heavy favorite, but Evansville had lost 17 of its last 18 games and ranked #275 in the RPI going into last night's game. Prior to this all UNI would have had to do was win their last two MVC games against bottom feeders and it would have locked up a bid regardless of what happened in the conference tournament. Now? This is so huge UNI pretty much needs to get to conference final or it's going to be a very nerve-wracking Selection Sunday. What a huge whiff.
Elsewhere, Louisville didn't get a big win it was looking for against Georgetown but are still probably ok, while Illinois, Old Dominion, and Seton Hall all got wins they needed for one reason or another. Northeastern had slim, slim, slim at-large hopes, and those are now officially bye-bye with their loss at home against Hofstra.
WEDNESDAY'S BUBBLE GAMES OF NOTE:
South Florida @ Villanova - The Bulls have a couple of really good wins (beat Pitt and Georgetown earlier), but because the rest of the profile is pretty weak they could really use another.
San Diego State @ BYU - SDSU is probably about as much of a middle of the bubble team as there is. They could really use a high-profile win and this chance to beat the Cougars is as good as it gets.
Pitt @ Notre Dame - The Irish are as good as dead, any single-loss probably kills their chances and with Harangody still injured it will probably happen sooner rather than later.
Dayton @ Temple - The Flyers at-large chances are spiraling down, down, down, and they're probably fifth in the A-10 pecking order at this point. Stealing one from the Owls would help right the ship.
UTEP @ Southern Miss - The Miners lead C-USA, but are on pretty thin ice due to a weak non-conference profile. They can't afford a loss here.
Virginia Tech @ Boston College - If the Hokies lose here, they're done.
Florida State @ North Carolina - Florida State's profile is good but not great - they can't afford to lose to the craptastic Heels.
UAB @ Central Florida - I think UAB is nearing lock status for a bid, but they still have to win games like this one.
DePaul @ Cincinnati - A loss here ends the Bearcats chances.
Saint Joe's @ Charlotte - The 49ers are another team that can't afford a loss.
Marquette @ St Johns - I personally think the committee is going to reward Marquette for playing so many good teams tight even though they lost them all (Marquette has six losses against RPI top 50 teams by single-digits), but winning a game like this is still a must for the Eagles.
Xavier @ St. Louis - X is already in, but the Billikens are making a late push. Something like, say, a win over the Musketeers would be an immense help.
Auburn @ Ole Miss - Lunardi says the Rebels are out. I'm not necessarily agreeing with that, but they definitely have to win out to have a prayer.
Memphis @ Houston - Memphis probably needs to win at least three of its last four and make a run in the CUSA tournament to have a chance.
Wichita State @ Bradley - Any loss short of in the MVC Tournament final ends the Shockers' hopes.
Alabama @ Mississippi State - Varnado and company have an empty profile when it comes to big time victories, so their only chance is win a lot of games.
TCU @ UNLV - The only way UNLV doesn't get in is by losing games like this one.
Sheesh, busy night. Hopefully the Gophers win and all these other teams lose.
On to your preview.
1. Mediocre team that desperately needs a win at home vs. a final four contender - what usually happens? Well, I detailed in the last post how UCONN beat WVU Monday night in a very similar position to what the Gophers are in. Checking back to last year, I found nine similar situations, where a team on the bubble is visited by a top 10 team: Maryland vs. #3 North Carolina, Cincinnati vs. #7 Louisville, Georgetown vs. #6 Louisville, Maryland vs. #7 Duke, UAB vs. #4 Memphis, VA Tech vs. #7 Duke, Maryland vs. #10 Wake Forest, Va Tech vs. #2 North Carolina, and West Virginia vs. #6 Louisville. The bubble team's record in those games: 1-9. Gulp. But hey, thanks to UCONN Bubble teams are undefeated in this type of game this year, so it's practically a lock for your precious Gophers.
2. How good is the big three of Purdue? Really, really good and getting better. E'Twaun Moore might be emerging as the real go-to guy on this team and he absolutely took over the game against Michigan State. JaJuan Johnson has added a 19-foot pull-up jumper to his already Hakim Warrick like game, and Robbie Hummel is steady as they come (except for his shooting slump the last three games which hopefully will continue). The three combine to score 65% of Purdue's points and grab 52% of the team's rebounds, and Hummel and Johnson are two of the most offensively efficient players in the country according to Ken Pom, and Moore has a higher effective field goal percentage than either of them. Oh, and Lewis Jackson is back and has seemingly solved his turnover issues from last year. Yeah, this all sounds real good.
3. What's been working for the Gophers the last two games? Offensive flow, keeping the ball moving in the half court, and the high/low. Against the Badgers they shot 48% while turning it over just 11 times and against the Hoosiers it was 56% and again just 11 turnovers, this time against 23 assists. That ball movement and just overall efficient offense is leading to a lot of open shots, as evidenced by the team's 14-29 three point shooting in the last two. Of course, Purdue is a better defensive team (6th in def. efficiency) than Wisconsin (20th) or Indiana (153rd), and I can't envision how the high/low would possibly work against the Boilers and their size, but moving the ball and finding open shots is going to be a huge key - as it is in pretty much every game of basketball since Naismith and his peach basket.
Defensively this new 3-2 zone has been very effective. Indiana and Wisconsin combined to shoot just 33% from three and 30% from two, and according to Myron Medcalf of the Star Tribune the two teams combined to score just 22 points in the paint. That's all well and good, and there's not doubt a properly executed zone with good athletes - which the Gophers have - can be a devastating defensive weapon, but Purdue ain't Wisconsin or Indiana. The Badgers are more reliant on the three for offense than Craig Hodges and Indiana flat out sucks. The Boilers don't rely on the three, and Moore, Johnson, and Hummel all attack the paint. We'll see just how good that zone is, and we'll see it in a hurry.
4. Who needs to step up? Honestly, everyone. This game isn't remotely close on talent, so it's going to take effort, smart-play, hustle, and some luck if the team is going to pull this one out. Hummel has shot just 8-26 in the last three so if he keeps that up it would be huge, but I'm not that worried about the defense, it's the scoring points part that concerns me. Westbrook is going to have to avoid the temptation to revert back to "the man", and in such a high-profile game you better believe he's going to be tempted. That's probably the #1 key to the game, how Westbrook plays within the offense. I mean, Devoe is going to have to play one of his best games of his career, Sampson is going to have to continue his evolution towards Big Man of the Century and check Johnson, Hoff is going to have to find open shots, and there will probably have to be a surprise hero here somewhere, but the Westbrook thing trumps all. If he's in "showcase my talent" mode, nothing else is going to matter.
5. Well, what do we think? I may be amped up for the game and even feeling a bit optimistic, but I am a realist at heart. Checking kenpom.com, they give the Gophers a 45% of winning this game and predict a one-point Purdue win. That's probably not too generous towards Minnesota. I think if the Gophers and Boilers play this game ten times, Purdue wins seven times - let's just hope this is one of the other three.
Purdue 66, Minnesota 62
As far as other bubble-related news goes, two huge developments last night. The first was Florida notching a huge win by beating Tennessee, and beating them by double-digits. This is everything the Gators needed, and gives them not only another win, but a big-time signature victory. They helped themselves out immensely.
Second, and even more impactful to the bubble, Northern Iowa lost to Evansville in a shocker. Not only was UNI a heavy favorite, but Evansville had lost 17 of its last 18 games and ranked #275 in the RPI going into last night's game. Prior to this all UNI would have had to do was win their last two MVC games against bottom feeders and it would have locked up a bid regardless of what happened in the conference tournament. Now? This is so huge UNI pretty much needs to get to conference final or it's going to be a very nerve-wracking Selection Sunday. What a huge whiff.
Elsewhere, Louisville didn't get a big win it was looking for against Georgetown but are still probably ok, while Illinois, Old Dominion, and Seton Hall all got wins they needed for one reason or another. Northeastern had slim, slim, slim at-large hopes, and those are now officially bye-bye with their loss at home against Hofstra.
WEDNESDAY'S BUBBLE GAMES OF NOTE:
South Florida @ Villanova - The Bulls have a couple of really good wins (beat Pitt and Georgetown earlier), but because the rest of the profile is pretty weak they could really use another.
San Diego State @ BYU - SDSU is probably about as much of a middle of the bubble team as there is. They could really use a high-profile win and this chance to beat the Cougars is as good as it gets.
Pitt @ Notre Dame - The Irish are as good as dead, any single-loss probably kills their chances and with Harangody still injured it will probably happen sooner rather than later.
Dayton @ Temple - The Flyers at-large chances are spiraling down, down, down, and they're probably fifth in the A-10 pecking order at this point. Stealing one from the Owls would help right the ship.
UTEP @ Southern Miss - The Miners lead C-USA, but are on pretty thin ice due to a weak non-conference profile. They can't afford a loss here.
Virginia Tech @ Boston College - If the Hokies lose here, they're done.
Florida State @ North Carolina - Florida State's profile is good but not great - they can't afford to lose to the craptastic Heels.
UAB @ Central Florida - I think UAB is nearing lock status for a bid, but they still have to win games like this one.
DePaul @ Cincinnati - A loss here ends the Bearcats chances.
Saint Joe's @ Charlotte - The 49ers are another team that can't afford a loss.
Marquette @ St Johns - I personally think the committee is going to reward Marquette for playing so many good teams tight even though they lost them all (Marquette has six losses against RPI top 50 teams by single-digits), but winning a game like this is still a must for the Eagles.
Xavier @ St. Louis - X is already in, but the Billikens are making a late push. Something like, say, a win over the Musketeers would be an immense help.
Auburn @ Ole Miss - Lunardi says the Rebels are out. I'm not necessarily agreeing with that, but they definitely have to win out to have a prayer.
Memphis @ Houston - Memphis probably needs to win at least three of its last four and make a run in the CUSA tournament to have a chance.
Wichita State @ Bradley - Any loss short of in the MVC Tournament final ends the Shockers' hopes.
Alabama @ Mississippi State - Varnado and company have an empty profile when it comes to big time victories, so their only chance is win a lot of games.
TCU @ UNLV - The only way UNLV doesn't get in is by losing games like this one.
Sheesh, busy night. Hopefully the Gophers win and all these other teams lose.
Monday, January 4, 2010
To the Boiler Room
Get it? Boilers? Boiler Room? Freddy Krueger? Actually this bit would have worked out a lot better if I knew how to use the picture software on my computer. I was going to paste in a Purdue jersey over Freddy's shirt so it was like he was Chris Kramer, but my computer kept telling me "Error: Source and Destination File Name is the Same" which is total BS because the one file is called "purduejersey" and the other is called "freddykrueger" so how can those be the same? I once kind of knew how to use computers. Now I'm like an 80-year old asking how to use "The Google." Let's just get to something else I'm bad at - basketball analysis.
I've decided to try to add a little bit of structure to my game previews, and as such I'm going to start using a stupid gimmick that I like to call "5 Questions."
1. How are the Gophers going to deal with the next KG? Purdue has a ton of weapons - specifically three - but I am more worried about JaJuan Johnson than either E'Twaun Moore or Robbie Hummel. Not that Moore and Hummel are going to be easily stopped, but Johnson's skill set is prefect to take advantage of Iverson and/or Sampson. He's got the range to pull them out to the perimeter and the ability to go around them from there, or on the block he has a nice turnaround and good moves and footwork to get himself open shots. Not to mention he is an oustanding offensive rebounder, and the Gophers aren't great at preventing them.
The one weakness I see is that Johnson does have a tendency to bring the ball down when he gets it inside rather than keeping the ball high. If the guards and other assorted wing-types can get down there and double before he can get into a move and/or grab the ball when it's down low they can keep him down. Of course, that could lead to open three-pointers, but we'll have to take that chance.
2. What is Hoffarber's role going to be? It's an interesting situation with the Hoff, who has basically become the Gophers top offensive weapon lately, but he can be taken advantage of on the defensive side of the ball by certain teams - and Purdue is probably one of them. He doesn't fare badly against less athletic teams and can actually be a "force" on the boards in those situations, but I don't know how he fits in against Purdue. When Ryne Smith is in the game he should be able to handle him, but every other wing on the Boilers would go right around him.
Still, they are going to need him in the game for his offense, and especially in this game because Purdue's one defensive weakness is defending the three-pointer. They allow opponents to shoot 38.8% from three, 305th in the country. Whether they play a lot of zone or find other ways to help him out, he's going to need to be in the game. And if he can go off like he has lately, that gives the Gophers a good chance to steal one.
3. Any chance that with the Boilers coming off the huge win over West Virginia and then traveling to Madison this weekend that they are overlooking this game? Well, if you want to make that up and use it for bulletin board material go ahead, but I don't think so. No matter how lofty the team's goals - and the Boilers have got to believe they are final four bound - here in the Big Ten I don't think anybdoy overlooks anybody else, particularly not a Tubby Smith coached opponent. I don't think the Gophers are quite looked at as highly as they should be and eventually will be, but I also don't think they are going to be ignored by Painter and Co. Just for kicks, I checked out Purdue in what you could call "trap" games between two biggies the last several years and I can't find even one single instance of them sleeping on a team they should have beaten in between two big games. So there goes that sliver of hope.
4. Which Lawrence Westbrook will show up? It is clear that Westbrook is the go-to scorer on this team. Yes, Hoffarber has been the biggest weapon, but his inability to create his own shot makes me too much of a liability to be "the man." Devoe can create his own shot, but he isn't quite their yet either, so that leaves it to L-Dub to be the alpha dog on this team, and when it works it's a thing of beauty; both Wisconsin games last year, this year's Penn State game were examples of what he can do when he's on. But, as any Gopher fan can tell you, he has been incredible inconsistent throughout his career, and this year has been no exception. In games against top 50 teams as defined at kenpom.com, Westbrook is playing significantly worse than his overall season averages. Points per game: 9 vs. 14. Field Goal Percentage: 41% vs. 52%. Assists per game: 0 vs. 2. Turnovers per game: 3 vs. 1.7. Steals: 0.3 vs. 1.5.
If the Gophers are to do anything in conference play this year Westbrook is going to start bringing his A game against the tough opponents with more regularity. Purdue, Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Ohio State are all in the top 50 and Northwestern and Illinois are just outside of it. I predicted that Westbrook would have a "special" senior season and he got it off to a good start with that Penn State game. If he can keep it going with a huge game against the Boilers that would go a long way towards a possible upset.
5. Can the Gophers beat Purdue in West Lafayette? Short answer: no. Long answer: probably not. Any time you play defense as well as the Gophers, and make no mistake this is one of the best defensive teams in the country, you always have a chance to win anywhere. Although with Purdue being nearly as good on that end (they are 7th to the Gophers 5th in defensive efficieny) and with the Boilers having little trouble with Wake Forest, another top 15 defensive team, earlier this year it doesn't seem really likely.
Still, with a defense that is that good and a team that showed they can win tough road games (@ Madison last year), I don't expect this to be an embarrassment.
Purdue 60, Minnesota 54.
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
Minnesota/Purdue - Let's Get This Over With
The Gophers are a very gaudy 16-2 on the season thus far, and there's no doubt all fans should be very happy with the way things are going. Tubby has made the program relevant already in just two years, and has pulled in a top 25 recruiting class in both of the past two seasons. Beyond that, his game coaching ability reminds me every game how much I hate Dan Monson and Ron Gardenhire, as he seems to be able to come up with an answer to almost everything. The teams' two losses were due to facing a more athletic team in Michigan State, tough to coach against that, and against a team with a disciplined, frustrating defense in Northwestern. What do you get if you combine those two teams? Purdue. Great.
Starting with the defense, Purdue is one of the best defensive teams in the country, ranking fifth in the country, not conference, in overall defensive efficiency (Northwestern is 42nd). They also first in the nation in adjusted field goal percentage, mainly due to their complete and total lockdown on 2 points shots, where they allow opponents to shoot just 38%, ranking second in the country behind just Vanderbilt. They aren't exactly weak guarding the three either, allowing opponents to hit just 32% of their threes. They also block their opponents shot 14% of the time (20th) and turn the opponent over 24% of the time (35th). In other words, pack a lunch.
As far as being more athletic I suppose that's at least a little debatable this year, which is a huge improvement from Monson's days, but no matter what kind of homer glasses you're wearing, the Boilers have the better players, starting with Big Ten POY candidate Robbie Hummel.
Hummel doesn't quite look the part of an elite athlete, but he plays like one. He's an excellent all-around player, and can hurt you in a whole bunch of different ways. He leads the Boilers and the Big Ten in rebounding at 7.9 per game, and also ranks second on the team in scoring at 13.8 per game, and chips in with 2.4 assists and a steal, while shooting 41% from three. He might not quite get the respect he deserves because of his Northwesternian looks and not eye popping numbers, but he will be a major factor Thursday night, even if you don't notice him. He can dominate game without it being obvious, as he doesn't need to take a lot of shots (season high of just 14, Steve Curry's season high is 33). He's very important to the Boilers; in there two Big Ten losses he was hurt, against Penn State he didn't play and against Illinois he only scored seven points. I have no idea how the Gophers will handle him.
I'm not exactly sure how they'll handle Purdue's leading scorer, E'Twaun Moore at 13.9 per game, either. Westbrook can probably handle him since he's shown he can handle bigger guards and Moore stands at 6-4. Although the best plan might be to just let him have the ball and go nuts. This season he can't shoot (41% from the floor, 34% from three) or take care of the ball (1-1 Assist/TO ratio) and put up a 1-12 against Wisconsin and a 2-8 with 7 turnovers against Northwestern. The Gophers don't force turnovers this season quite to the pace they did last year, but they are still in the top 41 teams in the country in doing so. If they can get after Moore, it will go a long way towards helping them to a win.
A major concern going into this game is the Gophers' rebounding woes, and it's amplified in a game against a team like this, who rank second in the Big Ten in rebounding per game. It's not just due to Hummel, either, as they also have misspelled name guy JaJuan Johnson, an athletic jumping bean 6-10 type who more than doubled his scoring from last year (from 5.4 to 12.5 per game) and blocked shots (1.0 to 2.3) and increased his rebounding from 3.1 to 5.7 per game, all while shooting 55% this year (up from 42% last year). I know that's a lot of numbers to throw out at you math challenged retards, but let's just say he was good and has gotten a lot better. I'm actually pretty excited to see how Ralph Sampson handles him, I think they match up fairly well, with Johnson having a bit of an advantage athletically and with his experience. I am not looking forward to how Johnson matches up with Iverson, because he will destroy him and probably steal his girlfriend.
Finally, because I'm getting bored and drunk (on Cranberry & Vodkas - with Lime), I'll talk about the three non-E'Twaun guards; Lewis Jackson, Chris Kramer, and Keaton Grant.
I'll start with Kramer, since you probably know who he is since he's been around for twelve years. I thought I saw where he got hurt this year, but unfortunately it wasn't serious because it would appear he's back. Kramer is basically the new version of Brian Cardinal, but a shorter, slightly less annoying version. You know the type, he gets props for his tough defense and hustle when really all it is is hustle and lack of ability - like Dusty Rychart. Expect him to be irritating.
Lewis Jackson is the main triggerman for the offense, he's started the last 11 games for the Boilers and leads the team in assists with 3.3 per game, and the freshman tied a career high with 6 assists in the Boilers last game against Iowa, not an easy team to get assists against. I'd say more, but in the two Purdue games I've watched this year I don't remember him. I'm assuming Al Nolen can make him cry.
Finally, Keaton Grant who is kind of depressing. Last season, he was a huge part of the Boilers success averaging 11.2 points and leading the team with 66 three pointers made. Then he had knee surgery in the off-season, and has struggled to find his old form. His scoring is down to 8.0, and he's only beat his average from last season twice this year, and more importantly is only shooting 34% from the field this season. In the games I've seen him play this year, he seemed to be a step slower but could still get to the rim; the real problem was he couldn't finish - unlike me with your sister. He did play maybe his best game of the season in their last game against Iowa, with 12 points thanks to four three-pointers, so maybe he's turning it around. And, seeing as how the Gophers are next up, I'm going to assume he's hit his stride.
Overall, we have a team with a shut-down defense and some really good offensive players starting to become the team everyone thought they were going to be after some early season struggles going against a very young team that has had some real success, but may have overachieved and is starting to deal with some serious questions. I know how this ended up in Hoosiers, but there's no Jimmy Chitwood here, no matter how Norman Dale Tubby might be. Purdue 71, Minnesota 60.
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Purdue vs. Minnesota
Suddenly, I realized the Gophers are playing at Purdue tonight, and it is my duty to at least make a half-assed attempt at a preview. Then I realized, I haven't really seen much of Purdue this year. A top 20 team in both polls, at the top of the Big Ten Standings, #29 in RPI and #24 in Pythagorean winning percentage, and I haven't seen them much. I was hoping one of the other Gopher bloggers would have a preview up, so I could just reword their preview and sound smart, but no such luck. Although over at From the Barn there was this nugget of goodness, which reads, in part, "Forward Dan Coleman has taken his game to the next level under Smith" which, quite literally, made me burst out laughing.
But on to the stuff that matters. Purdue is really having a tremendous season at 21-6 and 12-2 in the Big Ten. They are a lock for the NCAA tournament, with a shot at a top 3 seed, and have an impressive win over Louisville on the resume (although the Cards weren't at full strength that game). The Boilers had one of the top recruiting classes this season, and although there were some growing pains - losing at home to Wofford, giving away a game at Clemson - they are here, they're queer, deal with it.
The Boilers have a lot of guys who can hurt you, and are balanced in all areas. Such as:
9 guys play at least 15.6 minutes (Gophers 7)
7 guys score at least 5.6 points (Gophers 6)
8 guys grab at least 3 rebounds (Gophers 4)
6 guys dish at least 1.2 assists (Gophers 6)
5 guys nab at least 1 steal (Gophers 5)
7 guys have made at least ten threes this season (Gophers 5)
So they're balanced, and they're deep. The good news, is the gophers are also balanced and deep. Change around some of those arbitrary cutoffs used above, and they could probably match up even better. It's my personal opinion that Purdue is more talented, as Robbie Hummel and E'Twaun Moore are both lightyears better than anybody the Gophers can trot out there, but we've seen this Minnesota team grind it out with better teams and keep it tight until they blow it at the end.
That's once again what will probably happen tonight. I'm fully expected a close, entertaining battle right down until about the 6 minute mark where the Gophers decide to run around like a bunch of idiots while Purdue calmly takes a close game and turns it into a 10 point win.
A couple of keys for the Gophers:
1. Three pointers. Yes, Minnesota is an excellent three point shooting team, tops in the Big Ten and 55th in the country at 38.1%. However, there is a tendency to fall in love with the three and stop getting in the paint. Against an excellent defensive team like Purdue (18th in defensive efficiency) who is also mediocre defending the three (160th nationally) it will be even easier to fall in love with the three ball. I'm not saying to avoid it, because I think it will be a key if the Gophers want to pull off an upset tonight, but there has to be some penetration and transition baskets as well.
2. Turnovers. Both teams are outstanding at turning their opponents over, with Minnesota ranking 8th and Purdue 9th in the country. However, Purdue is excellent at not turning it over on offense, 42nd in the country, while the Gophers come in 175th. If the Gophers can't take care of the ball, this is going to be disastrous.
3. The Big Three. Not the Gophers' guys. The Gophers don't have a big three. They have like a 1.5 sometimes. I mean Moore, Hummel, and Keaton Grant from Purdue. Although the Boilers are balanced, those are the top three scorers and the guys who scare you. They can all blow up, and blow up in a hurry, and all three shoot better than 40% from three point land, where the Gophers are only ok defensively. Moore has scored in double digits 9 straight games, including 28 against Northwestern. He can be limited, however, as Indiana held him to 3-15 shooting and Michigan State to 5-14. The Gophers will have to do the same. Keaton Grant can score inside and out, and had back-to-back 22 point games against Illinois and Iowa last month. I expect Westbrook to lock him down. Robbie Hummel, on the other hand, is an absolute nightmare matchup. He plays his best against good teams (17 against Indiana, 21 against Wisconsin, and a 24 point/11 rebound monster against Michigan State) and ranks 12th in the entire country in offensive rating. He comes in at 128.1, and according to Pomeroy "anything over 120 is excellent." He shoots 51% overall, including 46% from three and 86% from the line. Let's just hope the Gophers aren't good enough to keep him interested.
So there you have it. Purdue 77, Minnesota 67.
Penn State -3.5 vs. Iowa (L)
Miami +8.5 @ Clemson (L)
Cincinnati +11.5 @ Pitt (W)
Tex Tech/Texas A&M UNDER 131.5 (L)
Illinois State -3.5 vs. Creighton (W)
UAB +1 @ UTEP (W)
Baylor -4 @ Colorado (W)
Kansas -13.5 @ Iowa State (L)
Duke -15 vs. Georgia Tech (L)
West Virginia -5.5 @ DePaul (W)
Yesterday: 5-4
Season: 364-336
Monday, September 17, 2007
#45 PURDUE BOILERMAKERS
#45 PURDUE BOILERMAKERS
Last Season: 22-12 (9-7), beat Arizona and lost to Florida in NCAA tournament
Key Losses: F Carl Landry (18.9 ppg/7.3 rpg), G David Teague (14.3 ppg/5.0 rpg)
Key Adds: G E'Twaun Moore (#8 SG), F/C JaJuan Johnson (#11 PF), F Robbie Hummel (#12 SF), F Scott Martin (#4 SF)
BACKCOURT:
I've mentioned before how it's bizarre that Purdue ended up with the #5 recruiting class in the nation according to Athlon, and the one place they didn't get help was at point guard. Senior Tarrance Crump and sophomore Chris Kramer will look to battle it out. Crump struggled last season, his first in D-I, while Kramer was the opposite, finishing second in the Big Ten in steals with 2.1 per game and scoring 7.2 points per game. I'd bet on Kramer.
Shooting guard will likely go to one of Purdue's highly ranked freshman in E'Twaun Moore. Coach Matt Painter describes Moore as Purdue's top recruit since Glenn Robinson in 1993. Moore is already an excellent defensive player, and has improved his perimeter game. Moore is a combo guard, who could end up playing some point if nobody else steps up.
Depth in the backcourt will come from sophomores Keaton Grant and Marcus Green, as well as freshman Greg Hill.
FRONTCOURT:
Painter was able to snag a couple of very good small forwards, who were also high school teammates, in Robbie Hummel and Scott Martin, the #29 and #51 overall prospects in the country. Martin is a big (6-7), lanky (190 lbs.) lefty who can really shoot the ball. He'll need to get stronger to handle the Big Ten, but his offensive game is top notch. Hummel is a smart player who can influence a game without taking a lot of shots.
Purdue is going to have some big shoes to fill with Carl Landry graduating. Even though Martin and Hummel are more wing-type players, they may have to swing down and play in the paint, as the only size Purdue has coming back this year is 6-6 Gordon Watt, who started 33 games last season but is a bit undersized for PF. He's a tough, dirty work type player though, so don't count him out.
The final freshman in the mix could end up starting as well in 6-10 JaJuan Johnson, #47 overall prospect. Like Martin and Hummel, Johnson needs to bulk up (weighs only 200 lbs) but he can impact a game on the defensive end right now. No much of a scorer, but he's an excellent shot blocker and rebounder.
OVERALL:
Purdue is a tough team to evaluate. They lost their two best players in David Teague and Carl Landry, but they have the #5 recruiting class in the country, with four immediate impact type freshmen. You can't ignore this kind of class. I think they'll be a bubble team for the NCAA tournament, with significant upside.
Tuesday, July 3, 2007
Top Big Ten Freshmen
It's probably a bit early, but I'm starting to feel the itch for the new college basketball season, and thought I'd kick it off by taking a look at the top Freshmen in the Big Ten this coming season:
1. Eric Gordon, SG, Indiana: The #1 ranked SG in the country by both Rivals and Scout, and Rivals has him as the #2 overall freshman. Would easily have been a lottery pick if High Schoolers were still eligible to come out, and likely would have gone top 5, possibly as high as #3. Is really an incredible, game-changing type player. Struggled with his shot a bit in the McDonald's All-American game, but you could see how good he's going to be. Wouldn't surprise me to see him end up all-conference next season.
2. Kosta Koufos, C, Ohio State: The Buckeyes lose Oden and the rest, but pick up a very intriguing player in this seven-footer with Greek Heritage. Koufos really impressed me at the McDonald's game as well as the shooting contests before it. A big man who can play down-low, but also has a very nice touch from outside, extending all the way to the three-point line. Ranked #16 overall by Rivals.
3. Durrell Summers, SF, Michigan State: Summers is a player who really shot up the rankings his junior summer, much like Rodney Williams is this year. An incredible athlete, he's a slasher who can get to the basket with ease and joins that with a nice jumper from the perimeter.
4. Kalin Lucas, PG, Michigan State: Yes, another Spartan. He should be able to step in and handle the point to take some of the pressure of Drew Neitzel. He can really push the pace of the game, and is an excellent creator. Needs some work on shooting and scoring, but will have the Spartans running and gunning.
5. E'Twaun Moore, SG, Pudure: I know, Purdue with a top five incoming freshman in the Big Ten? It's weird, but it's true - Moore is ranked as the #35 prospect by Rivals. Is already a terrific defender, and has improved his perimeter shot, which was weakness. Has a ton of potential, and could continue to get better.
HONORABLE MENTION: Chris Allen - Mich St, Corperryale Harris - Michigan, JaJuan Johnson - Purdue, Evan Turner - OSU, Jon Diebler, OSU, Demetri McCamey - Illinois, Robbie Hummell - Purdue, Scott Martin - Purdue, Jon Leuer - Wisconsin (Minnesota boy)
1. Eric Gordon, SG, Indiana: The #1 ranked SG in the country by both Rivals and Scout, and Rivals has him as the #2 overall freshman. Would easily have been a lottery pick if High Schoolers were still eligible to come out, and likely would have gone top 5, possibly as high as #3. Is really an incredible, game-changing type player. Struggled with his shot a bit in the McDonald's All-American game, but you could see how good he's going to be. Wouldn't surprise me to see him end up all-conference next season.
2. Kosta Koufos, C, Ohio State: The Buckeyes lose Oden and the rest, but pick up a very intriguing player in this seven-footer with Greek Heritage. Koufos really impressed me at the McDonald's game as well as the shooting contests before it. A big man who can play down-low, but also has a very nice touch from outside, extending all the way to the three-point line. Ranked #16 overall by Rivals.
3. Durrell Summers, SF, Michigan State: Summers is a player who really shot up the rankings his junior summer, much like Rodney Williams is this year. An incredible athlete, he's a slasher who can get to the basket with ease and joins that with a nice jumper from the perimeter.
4. Kalin Lucas, PG, Michigan State: Yes, another Spartan. He should be able to step in and handle the point to take some of the pressure of Drew Neitzel. He can really push the pace of the game, and is an excellent creator. Needs some work on shooting and scoring, but will have the Spartans running and gunning.
5. E'Twaun Moore, SG, Pudure: I know, Purdue with a top five incoming freshman in the Big Ten? It's weird, but it's true - Moore is ranked as the #35 prospect by Rivals. Is already a terrific defender, and has improved his perimeter shot, which was weakness. Has a ton of potential, and could continue to get better.
HONORABLE MENTION: Chris Allen - Mich St, Corperryale Harris - Michigan, JaJuan Johnson - Purdue, Evan Turner - OSU, Jon Diebler, OSU, Demetri McCamey - Illinois, Robbie Hummell - Purdue, Scott Martin - Purdue, Jon Leuer - Wisconsin (Minnesota boy)
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
