Game Preview: Gophers vs. Southern Miss

So the Gophers are still playing.  In all the NCAA gambling and brackets and game watching I kind of forgot about them, and didn't even realize they were playing St. Mary's until mid second half, and when I switched over I still paid more attention to the Wichita/Kentucky game I was streaming on the ipad.  I know, I'm a great blogger.  So they are still playing, and that's good, and on Tuesday night they'll welcome Southern Miss to the Barn with the winner heading to Madison Square Garden for the NIT Final Four.  Joy.

With all the good teams having fled Conference USA, Southern Miss is probably the jewel of the (severely weakened) conference, having won 20+ games in each of the last five years and making the NCAA Tournament as a 9 seed in 2012 as an at-large before losing to Kansas State.  This year's squad has gone 29-6 overall and was 13-3 in Conference USA, losing to Louisiana Tech in the conference tournament semi-finals.  To get here the Golden Eagles beat Toledo at home and Missouri on the road with that win over Mizzou one of their most impressive this season.  They also beat NCAA team North Dakota State as well as quality opponent Georgia State in non-conference, and had a season sweep of LA Tech but that's basically it as far as good victories go with the rest coming against a shitty conference or really bad teams out of conference.  This is not a juggernaut, but the win over Missouri is significant.

Looking at the stats, Southern Miss has four major strengths:  they cause a lot of turnovers, they grab a lot of offensive rebounds, they pass well, and they get to the free throw line a lot.  Their weaknesses are not shooting or defending shots very well, giving up a lot of assists, fouling a lot, and allowing an absolutely absurd amount of three pointers.  I haven't seen So Miss play this year, but this statistical profile is basically textbook for a team that plays an aggressive high pressure zone (Syracuse's profile is similar).  I also know that Southern Miss employs a full court press pretty much at all times, though I don't know if it's regular man-to-man or if there is a lot of trapping.  The game comes down to:

• Taking care of the ball.  High pressure zone and full court press are terrifying for the Gophers considering how the turnover bug has reared it's head at times this year.  The Gophers have played games where they take phenomenal care of the ball and others where they seem to be intentionally giving it away.  They will need to do the former to win this game.  On the flip side, Southern Miss is really good at giving the ball away, and hopefully the Gophers can ratchet up the pressure to take advantage.
• Rebounding.  Southern Miss is an outstanding rebounding team and as we know the Gophers are.....challenged, in that area.  Creating turnovers and forcing missed shots are meaningless if the other team just gets another crack at it with an offensive board.  This is Southern Miss's biggest strength, and probably the #1 key to the game.  The Gophers are a bigger team than the Golden Eagles, so this should be doable with effort and proper technique.
• Creating fouls while avoiding them.  Southern Miss loves to get to the line and they get there a ton, even if they aren't very good at foul shots.  With only two real big men, it's imperative at least one if not both of Eliason and Walker stay out of foul trouble.  On the other side Southern Miss really only goes 6-7 guys deep, so getting any of them in foul trouble, and as a team they commit a lot of fouls, could help stretch their bench further than they want to go.
• Hitting shots.  An aggressive zone can be easily defeated by good ball movement and hitting open shots.  35.1% of points scored against Southern Miss this year have come via three-pointer, the 3rd highest percentage in the country.  Related, opponents scored off an assist on 63.5% of their baskets, also the 3rd highest percentage in the country.  It's obvious what you need to do to beat this team, it's just a matter of doing it.

Personnel-wise, the Golden Eagles aren't deep but they are balanced within who plays.  They have five players averaging between 9.7 and 11.5 points per game who also average between 3.6 and 7.6 rebounds.

5-11 senior point guard Neil Watson is probably the leader of the team, averaging 10.7 pts and 3.9 assists per game.  He put up 18 points and 7 assists against Missouri, so he seems to be doing the whole I'm a senior and I don't want my career to be over yet thing.  He only takes 16% of his shots at the rim so he's a clear jump shooter, but he does it well hitting 40% of his twos and 37% of his threes.  He also hit 92% of his free throws this year, and buried with Missouri with four threes (on 9 attempts).

If Watson is the leader on the perimeter then 6-5 forward Michael Craig is the leader in the paint, leading the team in both scoring (11.5) and rebounding (7.6).  His range doesn't extend too far, but he's an excellent scorer in the lane for somebody that short.  He's their go to scorer and is an excellent passer out of the post - something to watch for.

Their other three main players are 6-7 senior Daveon Boardingham (9.9ppg/4.8rpg and a terrible name), former Temple transfer and 6-5 junior Aaron Brown (10.0ppg/4.3rpg), and 6-0 senior Jerrold Brooks (9.7ppg/2.5apg).  Man they have a lot of upperclassmen.  Boardingham is the closest thing they have to a center and leads the team with a whole 1.0 block per game, Brown is probably the scariest of these three just because he can score in a variety of ways and has had a few explosive games this year, and Brooks is their big time three point shooter (along with Watson) though he did hit just 33% this season.

Other than that they have some bit parts, one of which is our former good buddy Chip Armelin.  Armelin played just 13.4 minutes per game this year (actually slightly less than his last year with the Gophers) and averaged 4.7ppg and 1.9rpg.  In general he looks to be the same kind of player he was back then, although he's gotten much more efficient with his two pointers, hitting 60% this year compared to 46% back in 2012 mainly due to attacking the basket more.  He's also turning it over more than he did back then, but that could be a product of the system.  He's also nabbing more steals but again, product of the system.  Anyway, I'm happy to see Chip back.  I always had high hopes for him.  It will be interesting to see what happens next season with four seniors departing Southern Miss, and Chip will have to step in to a bigger role.

It boils down to this being one of the more easy games to analyze that I can remember.  The Golden Eagles are a decent team who can score, but a lot of their offense is predicated on getting turnovers and offensive rebounds, things the Gophers can control or limit.  Offensively there's a clear blue print to beating Southern Miss - move the ball and knock down open shots.  It's all about if the Gophers can execute.  I'm not exactly sure why, but I have a bad feeling.

Southern Miss 70, Minnesota 65

Week in Review: 2-20-2012

 Jesus what a completely pathetic defensive effort.  You name it, the Gophers did or didn't do it.  They didn't close out on shooters.  They got confused on their defensive scheme which led to not switching when they were supposed to and open lay-ups for Northwestern.  The continually went under screens instead of over the top and then made no real strong effort to get in a shooters face.  They got lost on back cuts.  They allowed offensive rebounds like candy, including on missed free throws which should be grounds for a lawsuit in some way I don't know I'm not a lawyer.  A five foot nothin' lesbian ball boy was able to get to the rim at will.  Just a completely putrid effort.  Combine that with an offense that seemed confused in the second half and completely went away from what worked in the first game and the half (can anyone actually tell me why they completely quit going inside when it's the whole reason they won the first game?).  Credit Northwestern with playing better defense and knocking down all those wide open shots, but this was a truly terrible game by the Gophers.  Now they need to win 2 of the next three (Michigan State, Indiana, @Wisconsin).  LOL.  Can't wait for baseball!


WHO WAS AWESOME

1.  Murray State Racers.  I've gone on record here as saying I'm not remotely a believer in Murray State, but after they waxed St. Mary's with ease in their Bracket Busters game on Saturday I've definitely seen a bit of a tick in the "I believe" direction on my "Do I believe in Murray State"-inator which I always wear on my wrist.  They just completely dominated the game from beginning to end, and St. Mary's is a very good team.  They did turn it over 15 times, but overcame that by shooting the lights out and winning by 14.  I can't quite throw my support behind them yet as being for real and I'd love to see them play one more good team to get a real sense of how good they are, but sadly they won't play another good team until the tournament.  The tournament which, by the way, they are an absolute lock for now no matter what else happens. 

2.  Other Bracket Buster winners.  Besides Murray State some other teams picked up very big wins this weekend.  Wichita State moves into lock territory after knocking off Davidson, while VCU (beat Northern Iowa), Drexel (crushed Cleveland State on the road), George Mason (over Lamar), Weber State (over UT-Arlington) and Iona (beat Nevada) all jump up from "probably not" to "we better take a look" status thanks to their wins.  Their were some huge wins outside of Bracket Busters as well, and probably none bigger than Kansas State's win over Baylor which is absolutely a monster for their profile.  Middle Tennessee State continued to roll through the the Sun Belt (they can afford zero losses prior to the Sun Belt Championship game), while South Florida has now moved to 10-4 in the Big East after an easy win at Pitt.  The overall profile is still a bit lacking but you can't ignore them anymore.  And finally, although they're not in consideration for an at-large, Loyola Marymount had a huge week, beating St. Mary's and then winning their Bracket Buster match-up against Valpo and that now gives them three wins over RPI Top 50 teams.  Which is pretty much their entire resume, so yeah.  Oh, and Harvard beat Yale, so that was good too.

3.  Oakland A's.  When I first saw the news that the A's had signed Yoenis Cespedes, the cuban defecting outfielder and supposed superstar, I was just stunned and was wondering what the hell Billy Beane was doing.  I mean, a team that basically just gutted it's entire roster outbidding everyone else to get a Cuban dude who has never faced major league quality pitching?  Bizarre.  But when I really stopped to think, it actually makes a lot of sense and is a worthwhile gamble.  They got him for 4 years/$36 million which is far less than it was originally thought he'd sign for ($50 mill+), and because of their situation they don't need him to come in a play right away and he can take some time in the minors to assimilate himself.  The A's suck now, but are primed to be a contender in a couple of years thanks to a farm system Keith Law ranked as the 9th best in baseball (and that was before this signing) with five guys in Law's Top 100 including three pitchers who project as top of the rotation type guys.  Add some hitters, like Cespedes, and Oakland becomes a contender.  And seriously, would you rather have Cespedes and his potential at $9 million per year, or Cuddyer at $10+?  Cespedes is basically a bargain - a gamble, but a bargain.

4.  New Mexico.  I'm not entirely certain if a team has EVER had as good a week as the Lobos just did.  There are two teams considered as "elite" in the MWC - San Diego State and UNLV.  New Mexico, due to a couple of shitty early season losses (to New Mex State and Santa Clara) and losses to both those teams, was considered a step below.  Well no more, because this week alone the Lobos beat SDSU at their place by 10 and then stomped UNLV at home by 20 to lock up a bid to the NCAA Tournament and assure the Mountain West will be sending three teams (at least) once again.  They're awfully good, and have a great point guard who can control the game in Kendall Williams, plus a star in Drew Gordon (finally) who put up 27 & 20 against the Rebels.  Hopefully they don't run the table and then win the MWC Tournament, because I want them to have a lower seed for sleeper potential.  

5.  Tyus Jones.  Jones scored 45 points in a game against some team earlier this week to go along with 7 assists, 7 steals, and 7 rebounds.  He also received a scholarship offer from Duke.  That now means the Gophers are competing against not only Ohio State and Michigan State but now the freakin' Blue Devils, and Jones has zero interest in staying home and the Gophers' continual mediocrity isn't going to win him over any time soon.  If you still believe Jones may end up a Gopher, just remember Naadir Tharpe who looked like he was all set to join the Gophers before Kansas suddenly swooped in out of nowhere with an offer which Tharpe accepted within the week.  The Gophers, at present, simply cannot compete for that type of player, and when that player is from here and they still can't get him it just reinforces how big of a wasteland the program is right now.  Man do I miss Clem.  Sure he cheated, but at least he made the team relevant.  I'd kill for relevancy.  I'm going to light matches and see how long I can hold my finger in the flame, just so I can feel something.


WHO SUCKED

1.  Ralph Sampson.  I truly believe this is the last time I'll ever write about Sampson because I think we're pretty much done here.  Whether it's his fault or Tubby's (well, probably both) nothing has changed since Day 1 and I think even his most ardent supporters, yours truly, have realized that he's going to go down with Rick Rickert as the biggest disappointment in team history.  His numbers are virtually unchanged from his freshman year.  He wasn't progressing as much as anybody had hoped, but there was a bit of a progression so you could still hold out hope he would have a monster senior year, and when Mbakwe went down the door was wide open.  Rather than going through, however, Ralph timidly shut it and, with a shrug of the shoulders, said "No thank you." 

He's never shown any drive or any aggressiveness, and never improved in any way (in fact he's regressed in every possible way other than shooting percentage).  He never refined his hook shot, nor added a second move in four years.  Seriously he never added another move.  And, for all his outside shot promise, he never delivered on that either.  I suspect Ralph had the talent, but spent his off seasons not in the gym, but playing nintendo or dominoes or dungeons and dragons or whatever kids do these days.  His downside should have been Sam Perkins, but he never even got there.  This pretty much sums it up.  I'm just pissed I didn't think of it first.

2.  Illinois Fighting Illini.  As disappointing as the Tubby era has been, at least he's not Bruce Weber.  After a pretty rough home loss to Purdue on Wednesday that made four straight defeats and a record of 1-7 in their last 8, Weber gave interviews where he sounded alternately confused (bad look for a coach) and defeated (even worse) and his boss gave an interview where he pretty much went out of his way to say Weber was still his guy.  So, naturally, rather than rallying around their coach and coming out all fired up against Nebraska the Illini did what you'd expect them to do and rolled over like a bunch of two-bit hookers.  I mean they lost to Nebraska by 23 and it wasn't even that close.  The Huskers had walk-ons in with like 3 minutes left in the game.  Brandon Paul shot 1-7 and scored 2 points.  Terrible game, and it's basically guaranteed that Weber is gone after this year.  Illinois has a continual pipeline of talent in Chicago so they'll always be dangerous, so as a Gopher fan I'm very sorry to see Weber go, because with him at the helm you always knew you never had to worry about the Illini. 

3.  Conference USA.  When I did my bubble watch I counted both Southern Miss and Memphis as IN along with a group of other teams with the caveat that none of those teams could handle more than 1 more loss.  Well, C-USA, poised to possibly get more than one team in the dance for the first time since 1998*, just kicked itself square in the balls because both Southern Miss and Memphis - the only two teams in the conference with at-large chances - both lost to bad teams this weekend.  So Miss lost to Houston and their RPI of 220, while Memphis got dropped by UTEP (RPI 149).  If both teams manage to get to the C-USA championship game without another loss I'd expect both to still get in.  But if either picks up another loss things are going to be very dicey.  I was feel bad for C-USA.  It was formed to compete with the big boys and was competitive for a bit, but then was completely raided, is now losing Memphis, and will dissolve and form with the leftovers from the Mountain West and is going to be just completely brutal.  Don't forget, Cincinnati, Marquette, and Louisville all used to be C-USA schools, and now the jewel will be what, Marshall?  UTEP?  Gross.  This is like being the black sheep of your family and then quitting your shitty job to join a cult.  And not one of the good ones either, more like one that forbids group sex (which I assume is the only reason anyone joins a cult). 

4.  Mississippi State Tigers.  Remember like, not all that long ago when Mississippi State was 6-3 in SEC play and had a non-conference win over West Virginia (RPI 37) and no bad (RPI sub-100) losses and everything was hunky dorey?  Well a three game losing streak has included losses to Auburn (RPI 123) and Georgia (RPI 107) and they're now 6-3 and in a wee spot of trouble.  They have four games left before the SEC Tournament and one is home against Kentucky and another is on the road at Alabama (which is a very tough game if their dudes are reinstated).  And it's sad because any team with Dee Bost, Arnett Moultrie, Rodney Hood, and Renardo Sidney should coast to a bid - I mean there's a reason this team was ranked 15th at one point this year.  Although Sidney is still way fat and his game has taken a pretty significant step backwards this year, so that doesn't help.  Of course, beating Kentucky this week will solve all ills.

5.  NC State Wolfpack.  This week was a monster of the Wolfpack who were right on the cusp of the bubble and just needed a marquee win or two to push them towards the top, and the opportunities were there with a game at Duke and then a home contest against Florida State.  Everything was looking good as NC State raced out to a 16-point lead at the half and were up 19 with 11 minutes left to play, but then they remembered they aren't supposed to win at Cameron and the refs also must have gotten a little jolt in their brain implanted microchips because Duke ended up winning thanks in part to 16 free throw attempts in the final 10 minutes compared to just seven for NC State and three NC Staters fouled out.  So that sucked, but even worse they let that hangover drift into Saturday's game against FSU and got their doors blown off.  They still have UNC at home this week, but that's their last chance to get a real good win prior to the ACC Tournament.  They're looking like they're a year away, and I say that because their recruiting class next year contains Rivals recruits #6, #23, and #55 and ranks as the fourth best in the country for 2012.  And yet Tubby's class for that year contains two 3-star guys.  It's like impossible to follow college basketball as closely as I do and not get depressed at least three times about the Gophers.


Two additional quick points and then I'll shut-up:

1.  The Gophers weren't the only team who took their NCAA bid hopes and pissed all over them this week.  Other than Illinois, Miss State, NC State, and the C-USA teams mentioned above, you also had Davidson (loss to Wichita) who is now done along with Akron (loss to Oral Roberts), and Nevada (loss to Iona).  Long Beach is still in pretty solid shape as long as there aren't any major slip-ups, but if they had won at Creighton (lost at the buzzer) they would have punched their ticket.  And a few major conference teams, although not killing their chances, hurt them badly including Texas (got smoked by a shitty Oklahoma Stat team) and Arizona (lost to Washington).  That win for Washington moves them to12-3 in the Pac-10, but the conference is so incredibly shitty that doesn't guarantee them a bid, not even a little.  I read somewhere that the Pac-10 overall was something like 2-25 against the RPI Top 50 outside of conference.  That's ridiculous.  So bad it's like Tubby Smith's record against them since coming to the Gophers. lol.

2.  I really like the A.J. Burnett trade for both sides.  The Pirates add a veteran arm who undeniably has some talent to a rotation where almost nobody can name a single starter while not giving up any prospects of particular note while the Yankees pay for most of the contract.  The Yankees get rid of a guy who clearly struggled with both the AL East and the NY spotlight and saved enough in the process to turn around and sign Raul Ibanez - a RH DH they desperately needed.  And Burnett gets out of New York into a non-pressure and no lose situation, not to mention he gets out to the AL (and specifically the AL East) which can only help.  win-win-win.

* = I completely made this up because I didn't feel like actually looking it up

NCAA Basketball Preview: C-USA

 So what's the deal now?  Conference USA is merging with The Mountain West, but only for football or something like that?  Seriously, I can't keep all this crap straight.  Too hard.  I need a flow chart or a Venn diagram or just someone to come sit with me for 20 minutes and explain what's going on.

I guess it doesn't really matter though because that's football and everybody knows basketball is way more important, and I don't think that merger or whatever touches hoops in any way, so C-USA is safe.  Well, kind of safe, as long as you don't count Houston and UCF going to the Big East (I think UCF is part of that, right?), and I don't know if that's like, just football or what.  I think it's a full on move.

Oh never mind.  Let's just get to the boring previews.

1.  MEMPHIS TIGERS.  After a couple of meh seasons, at least by Memphis standards, the Tigers are most definitely back and despite what's looking like and "up" version of C-USA this year it wouldn't be stunning to see them run the table in conference play.  They lose only one contributor from last year's team, which means at this point the team is loaded with ten guys on the roster who were Rivals Top 150s when they came to college.  Actually, with seven players who averaged between 6.6 and 12.3 points per game back from last season (and nobody over that 12.3) this reminds me a lot of those Calipari teams where they were just loaded with super athletic, super talented, interchangeable parts.  Good thing for those who hate Memphis that Pastner is looking like he's on the same "game coach" level as Calipari.

2.  CENTRAL FLORIDA KNIGHTS.  There are some very interesting things happening with UCF, and none of them involve either of the overrated Jordan brothers.  The most interesting thing, to me, is Keith Clanton, who made a huge leap in his sophomore year and was among the C-USA leaders in points, blocks, boards, and FG %.   Guy is a monster, and the Knights will be able to put Michael Chandler, the fifth best incoming center in the country according to Rivals, right next to him this year - and he picked UCF over Kentucky.  With those two, the Jordans, their starting point guard back, and some talented transfers, UCF has a very good chance at grabbing an NCAA bid - or starting out hot as fire and then collapsing like a dying star like last season.

3.  MARSHALL THUNDERING HERD.  It's been two years since Hassan Whiteside jumped to the NBA D-League, but somehow, improbably, Marshall is actually like, really really talented this year (for a C-USA team).  DeAndre Kane was freshman of the year last season, and Justin Coleman was stolen away from Louisville and then did this at their big not Midnight Madness event:  

And I'll just leave it at that.


4.  RICE OWLS.  You probably aren't smart enough to know this, but this is actually a really ballsy call.  Rice has been one of the worst college basketball teams in the world the last few seasons, but last year managed to win five conference games - which equaled their combined total for the previous 3 seasons.  A small step, but still a step in the right direction, and they still have Arsalan Kazemi, who is not that Lion from the Jesus movies but might be the best player in the conference outside of Memphis.  They also add a truly excellent mid-level play-making point guard in Dylan Ennis, who had offers from basically every mid-major and chose to become an Owl.  It's a down year in C-USA this season, so maybe Rice can actually make a postseason tournament.  WHAT AN ADVENTURE!

5.  TULSA GOLDEN HURRICANE.  Justin Hurtt led C-USA in scoring last season and has graduated, but it looks like Tulsa has a player already waiting to take over for him in Jordan Clarkson who scored 12 per game as a freshman last year and closed out last year with seven straight games in double-figures.  Tulsa also returns two other double figure scorers including former UCONN transfer Scottie Haralson, who is the best long-range threat on the Hurricane, and Steven Idlet who gives them an inside presence.  I might actually be underselling them a bit with that much back, but it will take a while to adjust to not having Hurtt around.  Probably one of those teams that is a lot better in February than in November. 

6.  UAB BLAZERS.  The Blazers are a lot like several other C-USA teams in that they have an awful lot of talent from last year that's no longer available - in this case their three top guards are all history - but they have an advantage over many of the other squads because they have a solid base with a couple of very good post players, including Cameron Moore who was their second leading scorer and #2 rebounder in the conference last season, and rather than relying on freshmen or transfers to fill in for the departed they have a bunch of sophomores with some experience.  I don't really see an NCAA berth here, but I wouldn't rule it out either.  I'm like Peter King.  MAYBE.

7.  SOUTHERN MISS EAGLES.  Another team dealing with some major losses, the Eagles will have to replace leading scorer and rebounder Gary Flowers as well as two of their three starting guards.  Larry Eustachy did what guys like Larry Eustachy do, and went out and grabbed a ton of JuCo players to team up with starting point guard Angelo Johnson - yes the Minnesota kid - who led the team in assists last season.  The JuCos being brought in look good with three guys ranking in the top 150 JuCo players according to Rivals, including #2 Keith DeWitt who was originally a Missouri commit, but you never know what you're getting with Juco players - don't forget this same list had Devron Bostick ranked as a top 5 player (which he could have been if Tubby knew how to use him properly - arg.)

8.  SOUTHERN METHODIST MUSTANGS.  Despite losing one of the best players in C-USA last year, Papa Dia, SMU should still be competitive thanks to four other returning starters.  Robert Nyakundi is clearly the best returner - he was second on the team with 14.3 points and 4.3 rebounds per game last season, and even though he is an excellent outside shooter, hitting 50% from three last seasons, he doesn't live out there and can score from anywhere, not to mention being an excellent rebounder.  Then there's some other guys too.

9.  UTEP MINERS.  UTEP was a pretty fun team to watch last year.  Randy Culpepper could score in bunches and I'm pretty sure is one of the all-time leading scorers for the Miners, Christian Polk had one of the most incredible games I've ever seen against Memphis in the C-USA Championship (27 pts on 11-14 shooting), Julyan Stone was a defensive standout and awesome rebounder, and Jeremy Williams was the team's third leading scorer who I don't remember  Now those guys are all gone.   Basically the whole team is new guys, either from high school or transfers, either JuCo or otherwise, and who knows that'll probably make them competitive here and there but it'll be a tough year. 

10.  TULANE GREEN WAVE.  Tulane loses three starters from last season, but the good news for them is they are at least retaining the most important two - swingman Kendall Timmons and point guard Jordan Callahan (who is probably related to that little wiener from South Dakota State).  Timmons led the team in scoring, rebounding, steals, and blocks last year and can do it all, while Callahan was second in scoring and led the team (and was fifth in C-USA) in assists, so Tulane at least has a good backcourt to build around.  Of course I'm not sure what they're building around them with, since there are only two other returnees from last year's team on the roster.  Josh Davis is a transfer from NC State where he played in all 31 games as a freshman two seasons ago, so that's a good start, and those two guards are going to be good enough to engineer at upset or two at some point this year.

11.  EAST CAROLINA PIRATES.  By ECU standards, last season was a smashing success - they beat Memphis for the first time ever, won two CUSA Tournament games, and were granted an invite to the collegeinsider.com post-season tournament, their first postseason berth since 1992.  Of course, as it goes with these kinds of programs, that was the big shot and now three of their top four players are gone to graduation and it's back to the depths of the conference for the Pirates.  Although there is some reason for optimism - ECU landed transfers from both South Carolina and Missouri.  If ECU can become an attractive "second-chance" transfer school that might be their way to climb up the C-USA pecking order.

12.  HOUSTON COUGARS.  You know what's never good?  When you go 12-18 and lose all three of your double-digit scorers.  Welcome to Houston.   The good news here, however, is that nobody really cares about this year because this is just year #2 for their new coach and he's got recruiting moving in a very good direction.  The Cougars bring in a Rivals Top 150 recruit this year in PF TaShawn Thomas (#113) and have two more on their way next season in PF Chicken Knowles (#47), who chose the Cougars over Missouri and Baylor, and an incredible get in PF Danuel House (#15) who went with Houston and spurned Arizona, Kansas, Ohio State, and Texas amongst others to become a Cougar.  Very impressive stuff here, and maybe a hint that Houston could actually survive in the Big East.

Weekend Review - 02.14.2011

Damn you Turtle Lake.  You win this round.  At least I'm killing it with BetUS’ college basketball predictions so I don't have to worry about moving into the poor house.  At least not yet.  Onto your college hoops report:


WHO WAS AWESOME

1.  Minnesota Gophers.  Wow.  That was pretty awesome.  Not the loss to Illinois of course, which was pretty disappointing, but I was becoming convinced this team was coming apart at the seams and that they were going to lose to Iowa, sounding the death knell on the season.  Instead, they went out and beat the Hawkeyes soundly by a final margin of 62-45 in a game that wasn't even that close and was never in doubt.  This tells me that the team should be good enough to hang on to their NCAA bid, and hopefully Nolen will come back in March, and then we'll just see what we'll see.

Special shout-outs to Colt Iverson, Rodney Williams, and Maverick Ahanmisi for their play last night.  Iverson looked like a 6-11 point guard in his role in the middle of the Gopher offense against the Iowa zone, consistently finding the open man and helping the team get open shots.  He only ended up with 1 assists but he definitely was a big reason the Gophers shot well and controlled the game.  Williams took over the game for a stretch, showing the actualization of his near limitless potential, even if it was too short-lived.  Finally, Ahanmisi played his best 11 minutes as a collegian, scoring 7 points, dishing 2 assists, and most importantly looking like a legitimate Big Ten point guard.  I'm not sure I'm quite ready to hand over the keys to him for next season, but I'm sold on him as a backup and he might end up pretty good later in his career.

So, yeah, Iowa is a bad team and this win isn't exactly like beating an NCAA tournament team or even an NIT team, but at least we know they aren't in a death spiral here, and should most likely still end up in the dance.  And then hey, who knows, am I right?

2.  Xavier Musketeers.  Huge week for X, which starting off with them beating an NCAA bubble team in Georgia and ended wit them reasserting their A-10 dominance by knocking off Duquesne, the team they were tied with at the top of the conference standings, and they did it at Duquesne's place - whatever it's called and actually I don't even know where Duquesne is.  I'm going to guess Massachusetts.  Anyway, Xavier has overcome a rough start and is starting to round into form.  Either they just needed some time to adjust at the beginning of the year or they really aren't that good - it's just that the A-10 is down this year.  Tread lightly.

3.  Wisconsin Badgers.  Giving Ohio State their first loss will get you a mention here.  And now they're 9-3 in the Big Ten, have basically solidified themselves as the second best team in the conference, and are looking like they're a Sweet 16 team with upside.  Great.  I still hate them.  Seriously, how can they be this good with guys like Tim Jarmusz, Keaton Nankivil, and Mike Bruesewitz as integral cogs?  Bo Ryan is a freaking wizard.  Crap.  I think I accidentally realized I respect him.  Still hate him though.

4.  Pitt Panthers.  It's a wide open year with about 15-20 legit final four contenders, and nearly every team has some pretty severe flaws that could end up knocking them out early.  The one exception I've found is Pitt, a very balanced team who showed some serious moxie this week, winning on the road at both West Virginia and Villanova, the first loss for Nova at home since 2007.  And they did it without leading scorer and point guard Ashton Gibbs.  They're a good offensive team, a good defensive team, they score inside, they score outside, and they have great guards - everything you could want for success in March.  If I didn't hate the Pitt program so much, I'd be a huge fan.  Damn you Carl Krauser. 

5.  St. Johns Red Storm.  I feel like I'm writing about these guys almost every week, but this was another monster week for the resurgent storm, dismantling UCONN at home and then winning a very big bubble implications type of game on the road at Cincinnati.  I don't know exactly where they rank on the bubble and a 14-9 overall record isn't pretty, but a 7-5 Big East record with wins now over Georgetown, Notre Dame, UCONN, and Duke tells me that based on talent this is absolutely an NCAA Tournament team, and an RPI of 20 with a strength of schedule ranked #2 says the same.  They still have two gimmes in home games versus DePaul and South Florida, so at minimum they should end up at 9-9 in conference play.  That's got to be good enough.



WHO SUCKED

1.  Northwestern Wildcats.  They seem to land here almost every week, don't they?  I'm not even sure what else there is to write anymore, but they're just so hard to ignore because jesus.  This week they lost to a bad Michigan team by 9 after allowing 52% shooting by the Wolverines, one of the poorer shooting teams in the conference and that wasn't nearly the more embarrassing loss of the two they registered this week.  They got smoked by Penn State by 24 in a game where they mustered just 41 points in a brick city effort, shooting just 18-52 and 2-21 from three.  Basically they can't shoot or play defense and are 4-9 in the Big Ten, just one game out of the cellar.  I'm not even sure they're a NIT team.  Maybe CBI.  Sorry Loretta8.

2.  Syracuse Orange.  Another team that seems to find it's way into this section quite a bit lately, the Orange had yet another rough week, this time dropping a home game to Georgetown and then losing on the road at Louisville.  That makes them 2-6 now since starting the year at 18-0, and although they aren't really in any danger of missing the NCAA Tournament their seed has slid rapidly, going from a possible #1 to #4 in the latest bracketology.  They have two guaranteed wins in their final five games (DePaul and Rutgers at home), but a quick exit from the Big East tournament could get them down to a #5 and a matchup with a dreaded 12.  If they end up against a team with quick, penetrating guards they're going to be in trouble.  Actually, they're pretty much screwed and I don't see any way they make it out of the first weekend alive.

3.  Missouri Valley Conference.  Guess which conference basically guaranteed that they won't have an at-large team this year?  Assuming you aren't a retard you probably figured out I'm talking about the Missouri Valley.  Wichita State, the conference leader and a team that's 20-5, lost a home game to Southern Illinois, a team that you think is good until you remember that it's actually not 2005 anymore, and Northern Iowa, the third best team in the MVC, lost to Wichita as well as Evansville, continuing a losing streak that starting last week with a loss to Drake.  UNI is definitely out, while Wichita's win over the Panthers keeps them barely hanging on by a string.  They would probably need to win out and then make the MVC Tournament final to have a chance.  Missouri State also has a chance, but they too would need to finish very, very strong.  Looking more and more like a 1-bid league this year, even with a weak bubble and expanded field.


4.  Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles.  The weekend loss to Memphis really puts the Eagles in a bad spot, now a full game back atop the C-USA standings of co-leaders UAB and UTEP, and with only one win this year over an RPI Top 50 team their at large chances are fading.  They still have home matches against both leaders and need to win those games and take care of business against the various other conference also-rans, but road games against UCF and Tulsa aren't going to be easy.  Larry Eustachy has made USM relevant again within the conference, but will need a strong finish to make them relevant on a national level.

5.  Utah State Aggies.  So are we just going to have zero mid-major at-larges this year?  Butler, Gonzaga, and Memphis were all givens in the past but most likely will all have to win their conference tournament, and now Utah State kicked away their chance at a bid on Wednesday by losing to Idaho.  It sucks that they are basically eliminated from at-large consideration since they are 23-3, but it's their own fault.  Their best win out of those 23 is probably their win over Long Beach, who ranks 116 in the RPI and 101 at kenpom.com.  Yes, that's right, Utah State doesn't have a single win over an RPI top 100 foe, and they've only played two (Georgetown and BYU), leading to a ridiculous strength of schedule rank of 157.  They get to play St. Mary's in Bracket Busters coming up here on Saturday which will help, but this loss to Idaho (RPI 156) is extremely damaging.  Like crawling through a tunnel covered with razor wire and sharks.



For those who like Twins talk stick around.  I'm aiming to get a Twins post up here on Tuesday.

NCAA Hoops Preview: CONFERENCE USA

Calipari is gone, taking most of an incredible recruiting class with him, and Memphis lost enough talent to be a top 10 team all on their own, meanwhile three other C-USA teams are geared up for a run at the title.  What this means is that looking at this conference is not as simple as penciling in Memphis for the first time in a whole lot of years.  It's wide open.



1. MEMPHIS.  It was very tempting to pick one of the other schools that look poised to knock off the Tigers, but don't forget the guys they have coming back were still signed by Calipari when he could get nearly anyone he wanted, you just don't remember because they were behind so much other talent.  Wes Witherspoon is a 6-8 combo guard/forward play anywhere do anything type guy, and he was #34 on the Rivals 150 when he came out.  Junior guards Willie Kemp and Doneal Mack were #s 53 and 47 when they came out, and forward Pierre Niles was #117.  And don't forget Elliot Williams who transferred from Duke - he was #16.  So yeah, there's plenty gone, but there's still plenty around.   

2.  TULSA.  If you were going to put up a blueprint for a mid-major to make some noise in a season, the Golden Hurricane would be it.  Senior point guard who can score and control a game?  Check, Ben Uzoh.  Monster center who dominates the paint, offensively and defensively?  Check, Jerome Jordan.  A bunch of juniors and seniors who are quality role players and know their responsibilites?  Yep, all over the place.  They have gotten a little press already (I think Katz or somebody had them on their early Top 25), and it's worth noting that the C-USA tournament is in Tulsa this year.

3.  UTEP.  I almost had the Miners in first (which explains why I had a UTEP photo at the ready), but then I remembered that I was mostly putting them there because I have an irrational love of Derrick Caracter, the fat discipline problem who got booted from Louisville - yes, he's at UTEP now.  If he has it together, they will be very tough on the front line, and also return Randy Culpepper, a 17.5 point per game scorer who, although being very Robet Vaden-like, really seemed to hit his stride in the Miners' run to the CBI championship game.

4.  HOUSTON.  I'm not a huge fan of the Cougs this year, but any time a team returns two 18+ ppg senior guards you at least have to pay attention.  Of course, they also lose all the size they had without much coming back to replace it, but you know Penders can coach, you know they're going to play up tempo, and you know they will probably give a few teams fits this year.  Houston is playing in the Great Alaskan Shootout this year, which will be a good litmus test to see where they stand.

5.  MARSHALL.  Randy Moss U returns four starters from last season's 6th place team, although they do lose their top scorer.  The Thundering Herd's strength lies in the backcourt, where they get most of their scoring including Chris Lutz who scored 37 against Tulane and recently won a roster spot on the Phillipines' National Team (note:  I have no idea how impressive this is or isn't.)  Marshall also brings in the best recruit in C-USA not going to Memphis in center Hassan Whiteside (#87 rivals 150), a 6-11 center who should compliment the perimeter guys, although it sounds like his academics might not be in order.

6.  TULANE.  At this point it's now a total crapshoot, as the remaining teams are all pretty much bottom of the barrel.  The Green Wave get the nod at the top of the scrap heap simply because they are the best defensive team of the bunch, and they return a three-year do everything starter at point guard in Kevin Sims.  They also add Juco transfer wing Aaron Holmes, who was ranked #117 on Rivals list coming out of high school in 2006.

7.  SOUTHERN METHODIST.   Slightly better than the rest due to a returning backcourt of Paul McCoy and Derek Williams, who averaged over 25 points between the two of them last year and both of whom had positive assist-to-turnover ratios, a rarity amongst the guards in the bottom tier of this conference.  They also return power forward and former transfer from Georgia Tech Mouhammad Faye, who closed out last season with four straight games scoring in double figures and played for Senegal in the FIBA Africa Championships, averaging 17 points per game.  Oh, and if you were expecting Matt Doherty to turn SMU around through recruiting, it ain't happening thus far.

8.  SOUTHERN MISS.  Partyboy Larry Eustachy seemed to have the Golden Eagles moving in the right direction, but then 3-time All C-USA guard Jeremy Wise decided to jump into the NBA draft (note:  he wasn't drafted) and that knocks the team back down a peg.  With three other starters gone, the new talent Eustachy is bringing in has to help immediately.  Minneapolis boy Angelo Johnson will likely start at the point right away, and there are three new JuCo players who are all ranked in the top 60 by Juco Junction, with Gary Flowers ranked #1 in the country.  As with all Jucos, you never know what you're gonna get.

9.  CENTRAL FLORIDA.  UCF loses Jermaine Taylor, last year's C-USA scoring leader at 26.2 ppg and returns not much outside of 3-point specialist Isaac Sosa, who shot 45% behind the line last year to lead the conference.  The Knights do bring in a nice class, including a trio of 3-star players who collectively had offers from teams such as South Carolina, Alabama, Providence, Iowa, Stanford, and Butler.  One of the newcomers will bring increased media attention - Michael Jordan's son Marcus.  At least until he quits like his quitter brother.

10.  RICE.  Do you know who Rice's coach is?  It's Ben Braun.  The same Ben Braun who had a good amount of success with Cal not that long ago.  It's going to be quite a task to turn the Owls around (they were 10-22 last year, Braun's first season), but he's already starting to make inroads.  He signed a couple of three-stars this year (no small feat for Rice) in PG Tamir Jackson, who also had an offer from UAB, and power forward and likely terrorist Arsalan Kazemi from Iran, who had offers from Cincinnati and Maryland and may or may not be related to the lion from Narnia.  It's still a long road ahead, but looking to get better.

10.  UAB.  Everything was aligned for UAB to make a run at Memphis last year, and at least make the NCAA tournament.  Oops.  And now everybody is gone, with the Blazers losing more than 75% of their scoring from last season and 90% of their shots with Robert Vaden finally graduating.  The recruiting class fell apart as well.  UAB had a verbal from both Rivals #2 DeMarcus Cousins and were thought to be in the lead for hometown PG and #23 prospect Eric Bledsoe, but both ending up signing with Kentucky, as Mike Davis still can't beat Calipari.  After losing out on almost every other recruiting battle, the cupboard is pretty bare.  Transfer Elijah Milsap, who I think is Paul's brother, transferred in from LA-Lafayette and will pretty much instantly become the Blazers' best player.

12.  EAST CAROLINA.  One of the worst defensive teams in all of college basketball last year (ranking 336/344 in defensive efficiency) did very little to address that, at least in terms of signing anybody of relevance.  They also lost their two best players to graduation, with not much behind them to step up.  The bright side is they have junior point guard Brock Young who was second in the country in assists last season with 7.6 per game - the only problem is there is nobody left to score.


So there you have it.  Will C-USA be a multi-bid league this year?  Will Memphis finally be dethroned or can Josh Pastner pick up right where Calipari left off?  Has Derrick Caracter finally grown up?  With coaches like Tom Penders, Ben Braun, Matt Doherty, and Larry Eustachy in the conference, when will it's national profile start to rise?  Will Arsalan Kazemi blow up a stadium?

It's going to be an interesting year in C-USA.