Thursday, November 15, 2007

Week 11 NFL Picks

So of course, after having a great week at 11-2 in week 9, I follow it up by going 3-11 in week 10. Stupid gambling. Couple things:

1. The Gophers right now are ranked as the #15 recruiting class in the country for next season. How badass is that? Sure, there are plenty of unsigned guys who can move the rankings up and down, but some of those unsigned guys have interest in the Gophers. Devoe Joseph is looking good, the competition for him sounds like it's Vanderbilt (yeah right, nobody goes to Vanderbilt) and Kansas, but Kansas already signed a SG for this class, and are chasing another one ahead of Devoe. I can't believe the impact Tubby Smith has had already. I knew he would turn the program around, but I didn't think he'd be able to swoop in and pick up a top 20 class in his first season. Awesome, just awesome.

2. Heading to Chicago tomorrow for a weekend of too much drinking with Maddog and JC. Arriving tomorrow at 1:30 and leaving Sunday at 6:00. It's very possible I may be drunk for 48+ consecutive hours. My biggest concern is being to drunk to drive home from the airport after the short flight. Good thing somebody is picking me up. Also going to check out the Northwestern @ DePaul basketball game on Saturday, so I'll have a killer scouting report on the Wildcats.

3. I seriously can't take all the anti-A-Rod crap anymore. Seriously, the guy is the best hitter in the majors today, maybe ever. Yes, his career postseason numbers don't match his regular season numbers, but keep in mind it's a small sample size. 61% of fans in an poll said they wouldn't want A-Rod on their team. If the reason is monetary, and you have a limited budget and need to get more help than just one player, that I can understand. But if your reasons are anything to do with clutchness, chemistry, or David Eckstein-ness, you should stop watching baseball.

4. College hoops lines for today (went 3-4 yesterday after adding two late Pac10 games, making the season 5-10):

Arkansas -15 vs. Charleston (W)
UCONN -14 vs. Gardner-Webb (L)
Michigan +14.5 @ Georgetown (L)
Utah St +3 @ Cal-Poly (L)
Miami -10 vs. Marist (W)
Memphis -7.5 vs. Oklahoma (W)
Oregon St -6 vs. Colorado St. (L)

On to the picks:

Cincinnati -3 vs. Arizona:
I still don't really trust Cincinnati. They won at Baltimore last week, but that may have been more of a function of the Ravens sucking so bad. They weren't able to get in the endzone, winning with 7 FGs, and couldn't run the ball, only 2.1 per rush. But Arizona is a terrible road team, and with Rudi back, maybe the whole Cincy offense is back as well. We'll find out.

Carolina +9.5 @ Green Bay: Nine and a half points, huh? Wow. That was the Vikings they just stomped, not a real NFL team.

Baltimore +2.5 vs. Cleveland: Well, it looks like Vegas has finally caught on, and realized the Ravens suck. Only problem is, I think they went too far. Baltimore is still the kind of team that can win at home, and Cleveland is not a very good road team, despite hanging in against the Steelers last week.

Indianapolis -14.5 vs. Kansas City: After the past two weeks, you just have to feel like Indy is going to explode on somebody, and the Chiefs feel about right. This would be a great pick in a survivor type league, if I only hadn't gotten bounced out by the flippin' Saints losing last week to damn winless Rams at home. That should have been in the bag, no problem. Dumb.

Miami +10 @ Philadelphia: Philly shouldn't be favored by 10 over anybody.

New Orleans +1 @ Houston:
The Saints loss to the Rams made very little sense. It made so little sense, that the only way to explain it is that it was a fluke thing, and just to pretend it never happened. Also, this is where Reggie Bush and Ron Dayne get to meet up and talk about how awesome they were in college and try to figure out why they both suck in the NFL.

Oakland +5 @ Minnesota: T-Jax back at QB, no AP, and a pissed off Daunte Culpepper ready to take it out on a Vikings secondary that gives up career passing days to pretty much any QB who plays them. In his revenge game against Miami, he accounted for five TDs - even with only 75 passing yards. How much does this Peterson injury suck? I mean, Chuck Taylor is a good runner and all, but AP was clearly on a whole other level. He was the first Viking since Moss left who gave you that feeling that the Vikes could score on any play. There is really zero reason to even watch this team the rest of the year until he gets back.

San Diego +3 @ Jacksonville: I refuse to believe that the Jaguars are a good team.

Tampa -3 @ Atlanta: It wasn't that long ago it looked like Tampa might be a nice sleeper, now everybody's has forgotten about them. And, after Atlanta has won two straight with Joey Harrington, they're going to go back to Leftwich this week. Sounds like a disaster.

Detroit +2.5 vs. NY Giants: This game is going to tell us a tremendous amount about the Lions. If they win, they go to 7-3, continue their home dominance, take the driver's seat for a wild card spot, and if they win 2 of their 3 remaining home games, even if they lose all their road games, they are at 9 wins. If they lose, not only does it hurt the record, but they've become a fringe playoff team, who can't handle the big boys even at home, and still struggles on the road. So, yeah, they should try to win.

NY Jets +9.5 vs. Pittsburgh: I can't give 9.5 on the road in the NFL unless the Patriots, Colts, Dolphins, or Falcons are involved.

Dallas -10.5 vs. Washington: I think I've alternated all year thinking Washington was garbage, then a contender, then garbage, then a contender. This week I'm pretty sure they're garbage.

St. Louis -2.5 @ San Fran:
How bad are you if you are an underdog at home against a team that just won it's first game in week 10? Wow. I caught some of the Monday Night whilst drinking in the hotel, and Alex Smith looks god awful. If the Niners offered Smith straight up for T-Jax, I'm not sure you pull the trigger.

Chicago +5.5 @ Seattle: Hey Seattle, congratulations on destroying the 49ers. Guess what? You still suck.

Buffalo +16 vs. New England: I know, it's crazy to pick against New England at this point, but I have three good reasons:
1) Giving sixteen points to a home dog is insane. This doesn't matter that much in this case because the Patriots have already covered a similar spread @ Miami.
2) The last time the Bills had a home game against a heavy favorite, they battled the Cowboys and probably should have won until an improbable collapse at the end of the game. Who's to say they can't do it again.
3) I know Bill Belicheck is the jesus of football coaches and what not, but don't you think there's going to be some inevitable let down here? I know they have been rolling through the season sending a message and smashing people's heads, but in some way, didn't it feel like it was all leading up to the Colts game? There has to be an automatic sense of relaxation and exhalation a little bit now that it's in the books, no? And I know they had the bye week to get it out of their system, but I can't help but think it's still there. You'll see.

Denver -2 vs. Tennessee: I honestly just flipped a coin here. These two teams are completely unpredictable. And this whole Travis Henry thing, what if it somehow turns out that he is innocent? Every single positive pot test from here on out will end up in a three month circus, even if the guy is dead guilty. How intriguing.

FYI - From the time I started this post until now (I got distracted by stupid work) - Miami has outscored Marist 64-36, and there are ten minutes left. 1-0 is looking good.

SEASON: 69-64-9

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