Wednesday, October 31, 2007

Week 9 NFL Picks

1. On Sportscenter yesterday, two people were actually arguing over which was the bigger loss, Schilling from the Red Sox or A-Rod from the Yankees. Seriously. I don't want to get into a whole thing here, but looking at runs created vs. the average player (or runs prevented for Schilling) it's about the same differential as asking which would be the bigger loss for the Twins: losing Morneau AND Cuddyer, or losing Nick Punto. Dumbest argument ever.

2. I heard the Rockies owner say he still thinks his team is better than the Red Sox. Dude, you got swept by a combined score of 29-10. Give it up.

3. Please, please, please let the Twins trade Santana. They aren't going to spend the money and make the signings to be a world series contender, so trade your best piece when you get can three top-tier prospects for him. And do it now, in the off-season, don't wait until the trade deadline approaches when you have zero leverage. Just do it. Or sign A-Rod.

On to the picks:

Tennessee -4 vs. Carolina: The Titans just seem to get it done, especially at home. Carolina is 4-0 on the road this year, but it's against the Rams, Falcons, Saints (when they sucked), and Arizona.

Buffalo +1 vs. Cincinnati: I have zero idea what happened to the Bengals, although if all the Chad Johnson drama gets him traded, I know a few teams that could use him.

Detroit -3 vs. Denver: The Lions are 5-2, and I'm a believer. With Kevin Jones back, they have a really stellar offensive attack. Their defense still gives up yards and points, but when the Broncos' top offensive weapons are Cutler, Selvin Young, and Brandon Marshall they can shut them down. The shut down the Bears, and are Griese, Benson, and Berrian really that much worse that what Denver has?

Green Bay +2 @ Kansas City: Not really sure why. Guess I don't think the Chiefs are anything special, even at home, and the Pack are the kind of team this year that keeps finding ways to win.

New Orleans -3.5 vs. Jacksonville: Brees and company will face a tougher test to see if their offense is really back in Jacksonville versus the past few weeks. And consider me not a believer in Quinn Gray or whoever the Jags QB is, still not sure how they beat Tampa last week. Also, nice to see Colston show up this year.

San Diego -7 @ Minnesota: I know the Vikes have stayed close in most of their losses this year, but San Diego has really hit their stride since that near disastrous start. Plus, I don't even know who the Vikes QB is going to be, but I know whoever it is he can't throw anything more complicated that a 7-yard out (unless it's Jeff George). Also, when you can't throw at all, and teams are stacking the box to take away your best player, why not try a screen pass or two, and maybe a swing out to flat to get him the ball with some room to run? AP total catches last week = 0.

Atlanta -3 vs. San Fran: Yuck. I'll take the home team and the points.

Washington -3.5 @ NY Jets: Redskins shouldn't have a problem bouncing back from that ass-handing from the Patriots. They were embarrassed and will be angry, and have a nice juicy Jets' defense to take out their frustrations on.

Tampa -3.5 vs. Arizona: Somehow the Bucs lose at home to the Jags and Quinn Gray? Huh. I'm going to call that a weird aberration. Plus, Arizona - other than a weird fluky win over the Steelers, has been brutal.

Cleveland -1 vs. Seattle: I'm a believer in the Browns, and I think the Seahawks are garbage. This is a pretty easy call.

Houston +3 @ Oakland: Another crap factory of a game. The Raiders seem just slightly more screwed up right now than the Texans

Dallas -3 @ Philly: It's always a little scary taking a road favorite in a division/rivalry game, but Philly is crap.

Indianapolis +6 vs. New England: You realize the Colts are the defending champs, are undefeated, and are at home, right? Have to take them on general principle. This line also opened at 3, and is now at 6, so people are hammering the Patriots. As you should know by now, people are idiots. There will be a nice post up shortly from The Sidler breaking down this game.

Pittsburgh -9 vs. Baltimore: Baltimore is bad. Steelers are good. This should be the game that finally exposes just how bad the Ravens actually are.

Last Week: 5-8
Season: 55-51-9

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