Thursday, October 4, 2007

Week 5 NFL Picks

Had a great week last week, coming in at 11-3. Hopefully I can keep it going this week.

Arizona -3 @ St. Louis: I was really tempted to go with the Rams here, since their at home, and a QB switch might give them the spark they need to get back on track. Then I realized I was talking about Gus Frerotte, and my brain went back to normal. Plus, Leinart seems to be gaining some confidence and Arizona just stomped on the Steelers.

Atlanta +8 @ Tennessee: I believe the Titans are the kind of team that won't lose to the Falcons, but I also don't think they're the kind of team that destroys people. Eight is too much.

New Orleans -3 vs. Carolina: With the Saints coming off their bye week and Carolina starting David Carr, this might be the week the Saints get back a little rhythm and confidence. If they can't do it here, they might as well pack it in for the season.

Cleveland +17 @ New England: Well, this gives you an idea of how good the Patriots are. Playing a team that is 2-1 since a QB change, with wins over preseason playoff favorites Cincy and Baltimore, and the Pats are favored by 17. And it's a tough call.

Detroit +3.5 @ Washington: I believe in the Lions. I don't believe in the Redskins, and now they likely won't have Santana Moss. And how awesome is it that with Moss hurt, they decide to sign Keenan McCardell? Take one of the fastest receivers in the league, and replace him with a 37 year old man who hasn't scored a TD since 2005. Isn't this why you have back ups, so you don't have to do this? Actually, I just checked and holy crap, other than Moss and Randle-El, no other WR on the Skins has a single catch. It's just those two, tight ends, and RBs. How bizarre. Nice freakin' team.

Kansas City +2 vs. Jacksonville: Two straight wins and showing some serious signs of life for the Chiefs, thanks in part to the Dwayne Bowe Show. Remember how everybody thought Maurice Drew was going to be a stud this year? I guess Fred Taylor's not dead yet.

Houston -5.5 vs. Miami: I think I'll probably just keep picking against Miami until they actually cover, which might never happen. But how weird is it that on such a bad team, Ronnie Brown is putting up the numbers I thought LT would have this year? Ronnie Brown?

Giants -3 vs. Jets: This is one of those games where I just don't get the line. The Giants, winners of two in a row over division opponents, against the Jets, who just lost to the Bills. I figured this would be more like a 7-8 point line, not three. Of course, anytime I think I'm smarter than the line, it usually means I get this game wrong.

Pittsburgh -6 vs. Seattle: I'm not exactly sure why, but I have a feeling Seattle is holding this season together with duct tape. I'm waiting for the implosion, I really feel like it's coming. The Steelers should be fine after that little hiccup against the Cards.

Indy -10 vs. Tampa:
Tampa is better than expected, and can handle a lot of teams, but the Colts are on a whole different level than the rest of the NFL other than the Pats. With or without Harrison & Addai, the Colts still have plenty of firepower.

San Francisco +3 vs. Baltimore: Apparently, people haven't got on to the fact that the Ravens aren't very good just yet. San Fran certainly isn't anything special, and might be going with Dilfer at QB, but they're at home and the Ravens aren't very good.

San Diego +1 @ Denver:
I have to believe that as bad as things were, getting rolled at home by the Chiefs should be enough to slap the Chargers in the face and wake them up. There's way too much talent here to be this bad, and it can't all be the new coach.

Green Bay -3 vs. Chicago: You know what would be great? Brett Favre leads the Pack to the Super Bowl for one last hurrah, and then goes 7-27 for 88 yards with 0 TDs and 5 interceptions. I can't even describe how much I would enjoy that.

Buffalo +10 vs. Dallas: Maybe Trent Edwards will turn this team around. And by turn around, I just mean bring them from bottom of the barrel to mediocre. I was clearly wrong about JP Losman. I'm not completely sold on the Cowboys though. Their four opponents so far are a combined 3-13, and now they get the 1-3 Bills. Next week is going to be interesting when they play the Pats, going from the bottom of the NFL to the very top.

Last Week: 11-3
Season-to-Date: 30-27-5

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