Thursday, September 27, 2007

Week 4 NFL Picks

I should probably stop doing this, as I'm clearly a big giant idiot, but I'm going to carry on anyway. It can't get any worse than the last two weeks, right?

Browns +4.5 vs. Ravens:
I never understood why everyone thought the Ravens were going to be good this year, and still think they're a bunch of frauds. They've beat the lowly Jets by 7, the Cardinals by 3, and lost to a Bengal team that's been exposed as pretty mediocre itself. Put the Browns at home, and showing some life now with D. Anderson behind center, and I can see the Brownies winning outright.

Lions +3 vs. Chicago:
I'm not really even sure why Chicago is favored in this game. Yes, they have a very good defense, a defense so good, it got torched by Dallas to the tune of 431 yards and 34 points. I think Detroit just got hit by a buzzsaw that was a pissed off Eagles squad, and should be just fine going forward. Their defense is not very good, but Chicago sucks on offense and is now going to have Brian freakin' Griese at QB. Not good times in the Windy City.

Packers -1.5 @ Minnesota:
Sorry fans, but not even the Favre/Metrodome curse is going to be able to save the purple in this one. Packers defense is looking good, Favre has calmed down and is playing out of his mind, and the Vikings are still the Vikings.

Texans -2.5 @ Atlanta:
This might be my least favorite line of the week. If Atlanta is the kind of team that could end up 0-16, this is a pick for the Texans. If they are more of a 1-4 win team, this is the kind of game they would probably win. The Texans already won on the road at Carolina in impressive fashion, but don't have Andre Johnson this time. Even so, it's Atlanta and Joey Harrington.

Buffalo +4 vs. NY Jets:
Ok, so clearly I was wrong about JP Losman. He sucked, and now he's hurt and someone named Trent Edwards who I have never heard of is starting in his place. And Lee Evans has disappeared. He's having about the same kind of season so far as Robert Ferguson for the Vikes, if that tells you anything. But still, they're playing the Jets, and they're at open, and Marshawn Lynch looks like he's going to be good, and the Jets can't stop the run.

Oakland +4 @ Miami
I've flip-flopped on this game a couple of times. Miami is an 0-3 team, but they're laying 4 points? I don't get it. Is it the uncertainty at QB for Oakland? Because Culpepper looks like he'll probably start, and he played well last week. Miami showed a little bit of life by only losting by 3 to a horrible Jets team. I actually had Miami as my pick when I started typing, but I'm switching to Oakland and the points.

Dallas -12.5 vs. St. Louis
What has happened to the Rams? Is it all because of Orlando Pace's injury? How is it possible that one offensive lineman can make a team completely collapse upon itself? And now no Stephen Jackson. It's getting on towards desperation time in St. Louis, and now they have to travel to one of the hottest teams in football to play. This could get ugly.

Seattle -2 @ San Francisco:
I know taking a road favorite in a division matchup can be a pretty dumb move, but I don't think so this time. Both teams are 2-1, but San Fran has squeaked out wins over Arizona and St. Louis, while Seattle has beaten better teams in Tampa and Cincy. Yes, the Hawks lost on the road to Arizona, and that makes me nervous, but SF is a 2-1 team with a negative point differential, those teams always fall back to the pack.

Tampa +3 @ Carolina:
Delhomme is listed as day-to-day, but he missed practice yesterday and I'm thinking it's going to be David Carr out there going against a re-energized Bucs defense. And all Jeff Garcia does is win.

Denver +11 @ Indianapolis:
In years past, it seemed New England would always just score enough to win, and the Colts would blow teams out. This year, that trend seems to have reversed itself.

Kansas City +11.5 @ San Diego:
This game is going to go one of two ways. Either San Diego is going to be pissed off and lay a Philly vs. Detroit sized whooping on KC, or San Diego is hurting even worse than we thought and struggles to a win. Watching some of the post game reactions of San Diego players after last week, they seem more confused and lost than angry.

Steelers -6 @ Cardinals:
The Cards are looking like they might have some life, but have lost two heartbreakers. The Steelers have just been destroying people. I think they will continue on that path.

NY Giants +3 vs. Philly:
Are the Eagles back to being contenders? No, no they're not. I think they were pissed off and caught a lousy defense at the exact right time. The Giants are better than you think. Yes, they started 0-2, but their losses were to Dallas and the Packers, two of the remaining unbeatens.

New England -7 @ Cincinnati:
Seven points seems like a lot to give on the road to a team like the Bengals, until you realize that the Bengals might not be the team I thought they would be. They might just suck. For years the Patriots have been winning, but I never got that feeling like they were the kings of the league and could just dominate people. Now I do. They may very well go undefeated. I really wish I had drafted Moss in my fantasy league.

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