Friday, April 25, 2008

Some Other Prospects


There are a lot of Twins' prospects you hear about, and quite a few who you really don't. Since we pretty much know Carlos Gomez is a poor man's Vince Coleman, Delmon Young is really Jacque Jones, Boof Bonser's only chance is as an innings eater type, Kevin Slowey gives up too many homeruns, Scott Baker is boring, and Nick Blackburn is the new Jesus, I'm going to attempt to take a look at some guys who haven't hit the bigs yet.


1. P Deolis Guerra.
You probably recognize Guerra's name, as he was the other key piece to the Santana deal. Guerra is currenly ranked the #1 prospect in the Twins system, and is putting up the numbers to back it up at Fort Myers. In 19 innings over 4 starts, Guerra has given up 14 hits and 9 walks for a WHIP of 1.21 and only three runs, leaving his ERA at 1.42. He's struck out 15 (good) and given up two homeruns (ok). He's also impressed scouts, despite a fastball that is currently hitting only about 88 on the gun. He has a plus curveball and a plus-plus changeup, which is already considered an average changeup for a big league pitcher. Considering Guerra is just 19 years old, if he picks up some speed on the fastball he could be a star. Even as is, he has the tools to be a big league pitcher, if just a 4/5 type - which the Twins are loaded with.

2. OF Ben Revere.
The Twins' 2007 first round pick ran through the Gulf Coast League last year, to the tune of 21 steals in 30 tries in just fifty games. He was already known for his speed, but showed a excellent ability to drive the ball (.461 slugging including 10 triples in just 191 ABs), plate patience (13 BB/20 K, OBP of .388), and hit for average (.325). All these stats point to an excellent player, and hopefully in about 2-3 years he'll be playing CF and leading off for the Twins.

3. P Anthony Swarzak. With all the hype surrounding Garza, Baker, Slowey, and Bonser you never heard much about Swarzak, but he's turned into a top prospect while putting up excellent numbers each year. Swarzak followed up last year's 1.18 WHIP between A and AA with a hot start at AA New Britain, posting a WHIP of 1.00 and an ERA of 1.35 in four starts covering 20 innings. He doesn't give up many HRs (0 this year), he strikes out a good amount (24 in 20ip) and doesn't walk many guys (4 this year). Keep your eye on Swarzak, either this year or next he should be making his big debut.

4. P Tyler Robertson. A big (6-5) lefty down at Class A Fort Myers, Robertson is a guy jumped up Twins' prospect lists last season. After an uninspiring initial season in Rookie Ball, Robertson pitched very well at Class A Beloit last year. At just 19 years old, he pitched 102 innings, giving up just 87 hits, 3 homeruns, and 33 walks compared to 123 strikeouts on his way to a 1.17 WHIP and a 2.29 ERA. He's been a bit shakier so far this season at High A Fort Myers, posting a 1.60 WHIP through four starts and 19 innnings, but he still hasn't given up a homerun this year and posts an excellent K/9 of 9.94. Big lefties are always good to have around, so rest assured Robertson will get his chance.

5. SS Trevor Plouffe. Plouffe is a guy I'm very interested in, seeing as he's a shortstop and the position has pretty much been a black hole for the Twins for years and years, other than a handful of average seasons from Jason Bartlett, Greg Gagne, and Pat Meares and one hellaciously awesome season from Cristian Guzman. Of course, other than being a SS, Plouffe is fairl unremarkable. However he is an excellent fielder, with good range either way and a great arm. His hitting is suspect at best, as he's never hit better than .283 in a full minor league season, although he's up to .284 this season so far in AA. He shows decent plate patience and has fairly good speed. If he can develop a better bat, he could be a nice player. Ranked as the #11 prospect in the system, he has potential.

Other names you may not know: P Jeff Manship, P Jeff Duensing, OF Joe Benson

Oh, and if you're wondering about the other two 'tards from the Santana trade, they're both at AAA Rochester, where Kevin Mulvey has been lights out (1.16 ERA/1.16 WHIP) and Phil Humber has gotten absolutel lit up (5.09/1.70).

12 comments:

Dharma Bum said...

When you are as nerdly as me you have heard of all those people. I'm glad Revere is doing well. I hated that pick at the time because it was just because he was a cheap sign. Anyways, here is a good essay on why OBP is so important.
http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2008/04/north_siders_ma.php

minnemike said...

Love that you guys are talking Twins, you go pretty deep here too, a little above my level, but I like it nonetheless. I love basketball, but I still find time to cheer on the Twins.

Can't wait for the new ballpark to open in 2010. Although, we may regret not putting a roof on it.

Go Twins!

WWWWWW said...

You'll find that although we are technically a gopher blog, nothing gets the chatter flowing like Twins talk.

You'll also find that Dawg is kind of an idiot.

Dawg said...

WWWWWWise ass - An idiot is somebody (WWW) that rents a movie to see Helen Hunt's tits for 1 second while she rides a cripple. Maybe that was poor use of the word idiot. I would like to substitute loser for idiot.

Minnemike - These frauds use trendy baseball stats such as OPS+ but have no idea how to calculate them or interpret them (ie Kubel = Ordonez; jackass). Don't be intimidated.

Let me just say its nice to have some new blood to this blog even if you are against college hockey players drinking.

WWWWWW said...

The sheer amount of misinformation in that post is monumental even for you Dawger.

Yes, that movie was rented on my account, but Brady is the one who insisted on getting it. Helen Hunt doesn't even crack my top 500. And I know how to calculate OPS+, I misread the year column, and somehow didn't catch my own mistake. It would help you tremendously in your baseball analysis if you could gain even an elementary understanding of stats beyond average, rbi, wins, and ERA.

Dawg said...

WWWWW - You are a moron that makes a pathetic attempt at sounding intellectual. Either OPS+ is a useless stat or you are a useless twit. How else do you explain comparing a guy that had a monster offensive season to a guy that had an slightly above 2nd half of a season.I'm guessing that one of the following things was going through your head before you posted your ridiculous OPS+ comparison;

A) This stat is completely worthless if it has these 2 night and day players within 5 points.

or

B) I have no idea what this stat actually represents but I will still try to pass it off as being a legitimate measure of performance.

C) All the above and WWWWWW is a jackass.

WWWWWW said...

Holy crap. Just when I thought you couldn't get any dumber.

I clearly stated, more than once including above, that I misread the year column. Ordonez was well above Kubel in OPS+ last year, as it should be. I read the wrong year for Ordonez when I typed that up. Please try to read what I write more slowly so you can comprehend.

Again, there is nothing wrong with the stat, and I know exactly what it represents. I made a reading mistake, something you should be familiar with.

Dawg said...

Do you read what you write? You can blame making the comparison on misreading a column but didn't a blaring alarm go off in your head while you were typing Maglio Ordonez and his monsterous year only had a 5 point higher OPS+ then Jason Kubel?

The misread doesn't make you a moron but not double checking such a glaringly obvious brain fart does make you a complete dipshit.

You are a poser and have no grasp of OPS+. If your "misread" didn't even cause you to bat an eye lash before posting it then you obviously shouldn't be using those stats because they are above your comprehension level.

If you were a stat wizzard as you claim then that almost criminal assertion what have made any logical person do a double take before using it as a bench mark in the argument of frumpy Kubel's mediocre season.

That would be like the Bear arguing Cust is a contact hitter when he struck out 164 times last season (1st in the AL).

Eat it!

WWWWWW said...

I was posting in a hurry and somehow Mags monster year completely slipped my mind. If this disqualifies me from being allowed to talk baseball, so be it.

Bear said...

You're right I'm an idiot. Bremer was correct on 1 of his 4 assertions of Cust. Christ I feel so stupid. Dick I'm sorry.

P.S. In 08, with Cust's disastrous beginning to the season (yes, I know, insert steroid joke here), he still has a .373 OBP, which would lead the Twins.

J. Vavra said...

Walks are for pussies!!! No one wears out middle infielders like the Twins!

Dale Jr. said...

Cust is only hanging his hat on OBP because he can't hit. I would also stand up at the plate and pray for balls if I was batting well below the Mendoza line. His OBP a reflection of the piss poor pitching in the majors more than his plate discipline.

Bear, did you just bow your head and admit defeat to the dawg? It is a new day at DWG!

Did someone really compare Magglio to Kubel? I don't care what the stats look like or say, that just isn't right.