Monday, March 17, 2008

Here's What's Going to Happen: Midwest Region

FIRST ROUND

#1 Kansas over #16 Portland State: PSU has a good little guard in Jeremiah Dominguez, but Kansas has an assload of good guards to go along with a plethora of good big men. Plus, they've blown out bad teams all year. This one won't be even close to being close.

#9 Kent State over #8 UNLV: Yes, UNLV won the MWC tournament, but it was on their home floor. Yes, UNLV went to the sweet sixteen last year, but four of the five top guys from that team aren't back. Kent State is one of the top defensive teams in the country, and have a great inside/outside balance that the Rebels won't be able to handle.

#5 Clemson over #12 Villanova: Villanova shouldn't even be here, but since they are, you can watch one of the most overrated guards in the country in Scottie Reynolds. He shoots 40% from the field, 36% from three, and a 1.1 Assist/Turnover ratio. Yet, people want to make out with him, give me a break. Oh, and Clemson is really good.

#13 Siena over #4 Vanderbilt: Call me crazy, but I do not believe in Vandy this year. They started out 15-0, but finished 11-7, including 2-7 on the road. Well guess what? They aren't playing this game at Vandy Arena or whatever it's called. Siena is an excellent offensive team, and really take care of the basketball. The Saints matchup well with Vandy, and against their leading scorer Shan Foster. As long as they can control 6-11 freshman center A.J. Ogilvy, and I think they can, Siena can win this game.

#2 Georgetown over #15 UM-Baltimore County: UMBC had a very good season, but running into to the Hoyas is a very bad thing.

#10 Davidson over #7 Gonzaga: I've been saying all along that Gonzaga is overrated this year, and you'll see that when they take on Stephen Curry and Davidson. This should be a very entertaining matchup that could be in the nineties. Curry will be the difference, as I don't know how can matchup with him. If Pargo can't do it, it will be a long day for the bulldogs.

#3 Wisconsin over #14 CS-Fullerton: Fullerton catches a tough break getting Wisconsin in round 1. The Badgers are the top defensive team in the country, and are also very efficient on the offensive end. Fullerton is good offensively, but is one of the worst defensive teams around and that will make all the difference. Will be an interesting contrast in styles, as the Badgers are one of the slowest teams in the country and the Titans one of the fastest.

#6 USC over #11 Kansas State: I don't know if the committee intentionally creates interesting matchups or not, but this is certainly one of them, with two of the countrys top freshmen squaring off. Beasley is definitely good enough to carry K-State to win, but I don't see it. USC's defense will make the difference. Davon Jefferson and Taj Gibson can handle Beasley (relatively) and Walker, but I'm not sure who K-State has to handle Daniel Gibson, OJ Mayo, and Angelo Johnson.

ROUND TWO

#1 Kansas over #9 Kent State: I wrote earlier that the Golden Flashes were balanced inside and out, and that's what would lift them over UNLV. Well, bad news for Kent State - Kansas is just as balanced, twice as deep, and five times more talented.

#5 Clemson over #13 Siena: Siena moved on in round one mainly due to Vanderbilt's overratedness. Clemson has no such issues. The Tigers have more depth and all-around talent than the Saints, although I expect them to hang around.

#2 Georgetown over #10 Davidson: I love Davidson, and I think Georgetown is a tad overrated, but I don't think the Wildcats have a prayer against the Hoyas - unless Curry is absolutely unconscious. The Hoyas are a top ten defensive team in the country, and hold teams to 40% shooting and 30% three point shooting. Additionally, the Wildcats don't have the size to handle Hibbert, Summers, and Ewing. Sorry Davidson.

#6 USC over #3 Wisconsin: Bad matchup for the Badgers in round two, as USC plays essentially the same style as Wisconsin, but are more talented. I think Wisconsin is better coached, but I don't think that will be enough to get them past the Trojans. The only way I see USC losing this game is if OJ Mayo gets all spastic on the big stage, and starts to force his own shots rather than staying within the Trojans' system.

REGIONAL SEMIFINALS

#1 Kansas over #5 Clemson: Tough matchup for Clemson, and, similar to the Jayhawks' game against Kent State, Clemson is a very balanced squad - but Kansas is just as balanced, deeper, and much more talented. Unfortunately for the Tigers, Kansas is just too good - they rank #1 in the country in offensive efficiency and #3 in defensive efficiency, that's just sick.

#6 USC over #2 Georgetown: In a game that probably won't get out of the fifties, the Trojans knock off the Hoyas. USC has enough size to handle the Hoyas inside, and I think the Trojans have just enough on the outside to put them over the top here. This will be one of the closest games in the tournament.

REGIONAL FINAL


#1 Kansas over #6 USC: The Trojans' great run through the tournament ends when the smack into the juggernaut Jayhawks. Kansas is talented enough and disciplined enough to handle the Trojans tough defense, and are good enough to lock down on Mayo and USC's offense as the Jayhawks head to the Final Four.

East Region

4 comments:

Bear said...

W - I watched some TV program, years ago, about the selection committee, they do like to create "interesting matchups."

WWWWWW said...

It seems to happen almost every year, but I thought I remembered them denying that it was a consideration. I'll take your word for it, because I make stuff up a lot.

From the Barn said...

KSU has the quasi-home court. Something to think about.

WWWWWW said...

I considered it, but I don't think it will matter.