Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Adios Johan + Site News

So it's official, Johan to the Mets, and the Twins didn't get back top prospect OF Fernando Martinez, or top young pitcher Mike Pelphrey. Superb. Not to mention no Wright and no Reyes, but I think we gave up on that bit a long time ago.

The guys they ended up getting are a solid package but not getting a marquee name like Martinez, Phil Hughes, Jon Lester, or Jacoby Ellsbury hurts.

OF Carlos Gomez has the best combination of potential and major league ready right now abilities. He was the Mets #3 prospect, and is a top flight center fielder and a very fast runner. His hitting isn't quite major league ready yet, but because of his other skills the Twins might very well try him this year. He never did hit for a very high average or take very many walks, even in the minors, but he can steal bases like a MoFo. Baseball Prospectus projects him as a .260-.280 hitter with 20-50 steals and a .700-.750 OPS each season. Sounds like the perfect throw-in to a big trade, not the freakin' center piece.

P Deolis Guerra was the Mets #2 prospect, and might be the most intriguing. He's only 18, and already has a major-league ready changeup. However his fastball is inconsistent, and he doesn't have a reliable curve as yet. He did post a 1.17 WHIP at the Mets high A league last season. He'll need to develop into something special to make this trade even close to worthwhile.

The other two pitchers, Kevin Mulvey and Philip Humber, were #4 and #7 in the Mets organization, but it's not clear how much upside they really have. Mulvey pitched well in the minors the past two seasons, posting a 1.07 WHIP between rookie and AA two years ago and 1.21 last season between AA and AAA. According to scouts, he has three good pitches, but no great pitch, which limits him to an upside of back of the rotation type. Hopefully, scouts are wrong. Humber used to be looked at as a #2 pitcher type, but after Tommy John surgery he's lost command of his curveball and looks to be a 4/5 type pitcher as well. Oh good. That's what we need. Two more back of the rotation guys.

I have no idea how real the Red Sox and Yankees' offers as reported by the media were. It is very possible that those were never on the table, and were just rumors. It is also very possible, that Billy Smith was trying to play them off each other, and get other teams involved, and he bluffed the wrong guys. Either Red Sox offer (Lester or Ellsbury plus others) or the Yankees offer (Hughes, Cabrera +, even without Kennedy) would have been preferable to this. The best pitcher in the game, and they get very little back. I know there were few teams willing to pony up the money, but it just seems wrong.

So here's the rotation now:
1. Francisco Liriano (IF he's back - key to the season)
2. Boof Bonser
3. Scott Baker
4. Kevin Slowey
5. Kevin Mulvey/Phil Humber


SITE NEWS: Starting next Wednesday, there will be a PGA post each week from our new PGA guy, looking at the weekend that was and previewing the upcoming tournament. Look for it next week.


Dharma Bum said...

Did you read Keith Law on before you wrote this?

Also, have you read Joe Peiouwzoaszsomechecknameiorski's piece about it? Basically it says that the people he knows that know baseball were all over the board on this one. We could get nothing or we could get 2 stars and two regulars. Gomez could be awesome or he could be Jason Tyner. Well, actually I don't think he could be that bad, but I wanted to make a point that we don't know. Guerra could be a great pitcher but he could (just as likely for an 18 year old) never reach the bigs. We won't know how good this trade was for 5 years probably. I would have loved to have one of the big names but I've talked myself into this one. I don't think we have a chance in hell this year and there is no way Santana was going to be a twin in 09. Better to roll the dice, man.

WWWWWW said...

Read Law, but not Joe whatever you said.

If this was the best they could do, then fine. It was clear they needed to trade Santana, so hopefully somebody out of this bit ends up being a good to great player.

Dawg said...

WWW - I think both Blackburn and Perkins have a more realistic chance at the 5 spot over those 2 taints. I've also heard that Liriano may be headed to AAA to start the season.

This will be a tough year but on the brightside tickets will be cheap and plentiful unless some other jackass like Cal Ripken Jr (God I hate that bastard) has a chance to get his 3000th hit here.

Has anybody heard if the Twins are planning on going after anybody with their sudden surplus of payroll. They should be down like 20 mil from last season. If your free agent news is Kenny Lofton please save it because that is too depressing and uninspiring to listen to this morning.

WWWWWW said...

If they wanted to bring in a veteran pitcher (please god no) they could go after Kris Benson, Kyle Lohse, Freddy Garcia, or even Eric Milton, but I'm guessing all those guys are going to get overpaid.

The only hitter out there I'd want to even consider is Dallas McPherson.

snacks said...

bottom line is they had to trade santana or risk getting nothing but a couple of draft picks for him. i'm sure they took what they felt was the best offer and that they wouldn't get as much (or he would invoke his no trade clause) if they waited until the trade deadline. they weren't going to win it all anyway this year and are probably looking to set themselves up for a run when the new stadium opens

Dr. Acula!. said...

I clicked on both the links so you can earn some dough. You owe me a beer.

FYI, Lunndale and I took down Theory and PeeWee at GT after you left.

WWWWWW said...

Thanks, friend.

Dharma Bum said...

Ok, now I read Rob Neyer and just threw up in my mouth. Did we get anyone good in the Rule 5 draft?

Bear said...

"They had to trade him." No they didn't!

Santana made 13M last season. The rumor is/was that the Twins offered him 4/80, but he wanted 6/120. If Santana had come to the Twins and offered to sign for 6/90 (15 per) the Twins would have done it in an instant. So the Twins are hung up on 30 million dollars over 6 years? 12M just came off the books for Hunter. They also could have saved at least 5M by trading Nathan. A new deal would have also given them the option to trade him down the road.

They put themselves in a terrible position and have know one to blame but themselves. If they hadn't insulted Santana with a two year extension, he wouldn't have forced them into making this move immediately. The fact remains that they could get a better deal down the road, one way or another.

(Picture me at my most condescending, "Hey look at me, I'm Bill Smith, I just traded the best pitcher in baseball to the Mets and didn't demand their best prospect.") Ass!

One last thing. After all of the shit Pohlad has pulled on the fans of the Twins, don't you think, as a fan, you should demand a little more? Threatening to move them, threatening to have them contracted, all of the shenanigans with previous stadium proposals, to finally demanding a stadium so the team could afford to keep it's star players, only to then we watch two of them leave in the off-season. Anyone who steps into that new park is nothing more than an enabler, you are no better than the idiots who fill up Wrigley Field every season and pay good money to watch a inferior product.

Have fun watching a team with 5 number 3 starters pitch in that bandbox. Not only will you have to suffer by watching a shitty product on the field, but you will be forced to suffer through the smell of shit while you are sitting in your $35 seat. Oh the irony.

WWWWWW said...

Quality Rant.

snacks said...

That was pretty good. Especially the fact that he actually had a point to what he was saying as opposed to just blatantly insulting people.

Theory said...

Dr. Acula failed to mention that I beat all three of them at GT. But, with teams (PeeWee and I), we lost. High five to PeeWee.

Oh, and that sucks we had to trade Johan.