Preseason Top 25 - Reactions

Hey the Preseason Top 25 polls just came out.  You know what that means, time to write about how bad all these teams suck.  I'm taking a look at the AP poll instead of the Coaches poll because I chose it at random.  Spoiler alert:  The Gophers aren't in here.


1.  NORTH CAROLINA.  They only lose J.P. Tokoto who entered the NBA Draft for some reason but that's fine because I think he mostly made people mad at his shooting. Marcus Paige is back and he's really good when he's not being terrible.  They had zero outside shooting other than him last year, and unless one of the freshman can shoot (one supposedly can) or somebody else learned how to hit a 3-pointer in the offseason this is not the best team in basketball.  Also I just read Paige is out for 3-4 weeks with an injury so maybe that will lead to somebody else being good.  SPOILER:  nope.

2.  KENTUCKY.  Hell I don't know.

3.  MARYLAND.  It's hard to wrap my head around Maryland being this high, but I can't argue with it.  They were a 4 seed in the tournament last year and even though they didn't make it out of the weekend they were still a solid team.  Melo Trimble came back and might be the best player in the conference, they added two big time transfers, and got a late commitment from Diamond Stone who is supposed to be awesome despite the ridiculous name and fills their only real hole.  Still, three seems really freaking high.

4.  KANSAS.  Want to hear something that will blow your mind?  Perry Ellis is back for another year.  Even so, these guys are my pick for title winner.  Ellis sucks but he's not completely useless, and even if he is Kansas has everybody back (except Kelly Oubre who was meh anyway) and they're adding two McDonald's All Americans who are both forwards.  This team is deep as all hell, all they need is someone to make the leap.  With so many above average players in both ability and pedigree you'd think somebody's going to do it, and if two or more do these guys will be really, really good.  Bet on them.  Do it.  Go do it.  They're like 10-1.  Do it.

5.  DUKE.  Uh, you guys know they lost Tyus, Okafor, and Justice Winslow, right?  This is all because Grayson Allen, who makes J.J. Redick look downright lovable, had that good stretch in the National Championship game, isn't it?  Does he really seem like the kind of player who can carry a team for a while season.  NOT BLOODY LIKELY.  Good luck with him and one million freshmen.  Oh, right, they got a transfer from Rice coming in too.  Yes, Rice.  The college.  If you read any preview of Duke this year they call out a transfer from Rice as a huge positive.  I am currently making a dismissive wanking motion.

6.  VIRGINIA.  Hoops nerds like to tell you that if you think Virginia basketball is boring, you don't really understand basketball.  Well I understand basketball and I know what the pack line defense is and all that and I'm telling you - Virginia basketball is freaking boring as all hell.  And basically the whole team is back again to be boring and annoying and get handjobs from announcers.  Ugh.  Stop already.

7.  IOWA STATE.  If you asked me to guess where Iowa State was rated I would have said like I don't know, maybe mid-20s or something so this is a bit of a surprise.  But I guess Georges Niang is back which seems impossible and possibly illegal, and, you're not going to believe this, but the Cyclones get a couple of big deal transfers from other programs.  Add that to almost the whole team being back and I guess I see why they're this high.  They should be really fun and pretty good until one of their players gets suspended.

8.  OKLAHOMA.  The opposite of Virginia, these guys are fun as hell to watch and since Buddy Hield, who is basically a lock to lead the Big 12 in scoring, is back they probably will be again.  They also ranked 8th in defensive points per possession, so it is actually possible to play fast, fun, and good defense all at the same time.  Take notes, Cavaliers.  Also, this is way too high for these guys.

9.  GONZAGA.  Lots of people say stuff like man Gonzaga is overrated, they stomp the WCC, get all this Final Four type buzz, and then flame out.  Last year they finally made the Elite 8, which is definitely an accomplishment, but also just the second time they've gotten that far, the last coming in 1999.  So I don't know that they've proved that they're anything more than a small conference bully.  They've got a rock solid front court, but lose their entire back court so things could be rough early.  This section was extremely boring.

10.  WICHITA STATE.  They have Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet back.  That right there is enough to win the Missouri Valley.  No really, you take those two and Greg Marshall and you could roll out of their with three toddlers and the Shockers would roll.  Unfortunately it is both unsafe and illegal to play with toddlers so Wichita State will use real players to complement those two.  I don't really feel like looking up who any of those players are, but since Wichita has been good for so long at this point I'm guessing they're probably pretty good.

11.  VILLANOVA.  God that sucked when these guys got bounced last year, and not just because they were my non-Kentucky pick to win.  They were so freaking good.  Then a dopey NC State team knocks them off.  I suppose I shouldn't be surprised, that's kind of Villanova's thing.  Also their thing:  guards.  And they have a bunch of them again.  So expect the Wildcats to shoot a ton of three pointers, own the Big East, grab a high seed, and flame out early.  It's what they do.  Lesson learned.

12.  ARIZONA.  Stanley Johnson, T.J. McConnell, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, and Brandon Ashley are all gone.  That is a lot of people to be gone.  However Arizona is Arizona, and it must be nice to be Arizona, because they get a star transfer from Boston College and picked up one hell of a recruiting class, including stealing Allonzo Trier from the Gophers.  Also, they still have Kaleb Tarczewski and he is awesome and looks like he would fight you.  And you would die.

13.  MICHIGAN STATE.  Another team with a couple of big losses which catches a break with a big time transfer, ready to step right in.  For Sparty it's Eron Harris who only scored over 17 points per game in his last season at West Virginia, no big whoop.  I'm really fascinated by Lourawls Nairn (remember him?) here.  He only took 8.5% of the team's shots when he was on the floor.  The lowest Gopher with any real minutes played was Bakary Konate at 11.1%, which is actually way higher than Nairn.  I only found two other Big Ten players under 10% last year (Jaylon Tate of Illinois and Jeremiah Kreisberg of Northwestern) but both played far fewer minutes than Nairn.  So like, is that his thing?  What does he do if nobody guards him?  He's the anti-chucker, which in a way, is as fun as a real chucker.  I love watching how teams guard Rajon Rondo - they don't.  I hope that's what happens with Nairn.

14.  CAL.  This team could be like whoa.  I bet them at 60-1 to win the whole thing this summer, and I still like them now down all the way at 20-1.  They have a ton back from last year's team, not a great year, admittedly, and add two Top 10 recruits.  Yes, that's TWO top 10 recruits.  If the name on the jersey was Duke instead of Cal this would be a Top 5 team.  Plus, I like Cuonzo Martin as a coach.  This is my favorite sleeper this year.

15.  INDIANA.  Oh come on!  Do we not play defense any more in basketball, because if this is offense only I would say the Hoosiers are too low, but overall?  No chance.  It's the same team.  The only difference is they got some stud recruit center, but can one player suddenly take a swiss cheese defense and make it good?  Or even passable?  No.  Maybe Antoine Broxsie back in the day, but nobody can make Yogi Ferrell look good on defense.  Should score a lot of points though.  Gopher/Hoosier games should be in the 160s.

16.  UTAH.  I know they have at least one, and maybe two, big giant tall guys, and that's generally a good start when it comes to basketsball.  Ok I decided to check and they only have one, but he's really good you guys!  His name is Jakob Poetl and he's a possible lottery pick who held Jahlil Okafor to 6 points and 4 turnovers in March.  He can score, rebound, and block shots and now that Delon Wright is gone he should be the offenses focal point.  Should be fun.  No idea about all these other guys.

17.  WISCONSIN.  Oh come on!  You're kidding me.  Look, I love Nigel Hayes, I love him as much as I could ever love a Badger.  I think he's most likely a more skilled Noah Vonleh and I loved Noah Vonleh and thanked Jehova every day that Tom Crean was such a terrible coach.  But the Badgers are basically Hayes, Bronson Koenig who is whatever fine, and then nobody else.  I know people say it's stupid to bet against the Badgers and Bo Ryan, but people like blood sausage too.  People are morons.  Badgers suck this year.

18.  VANDERBILT.  Here's another team I like, although I can also see them sucking.  On paper it looks good - a potential lottery pick at center (Damian Jones) surrounded by shooters (Riley Lachance (remember him) and Wade Baldwin (him too) among others, and a team that really gelled as the season went on with most of the team back.  Vandy started out 1-7 in SEC play, but closed out 8-2 and looked really good, so yeah, on paper this looks good.  In reality, it's Vanderbilt so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

19.  NOTRE DAME.  Jerian Grant is gone, which is a fairly huge deal considering the game plan was generally "hey Jerian, go do everything for us."  The back-up for that was, hey Pat Connaughton, you go do stuff instead but oops, he gone.  Zach Auguste is a super stud, I'll give you that, and he's probably going to be better than Noah Vonleh, but somebody has to get him the ball.  In summation, these guys suck.

20.  UCONN.  They have Amida Brimah who I love because he blocks like, every shot ever taken, and their transfer train is rolling, picking up Sterling Gibbs (who is kind of a dick) from Seton Hall to go with Rodney Purvis whom they stole from NC State last year or maybe the year before.  Actually looking at this roster I've heard of like, everybody which seems goodish.  How the hell is Omar Calhoun still in college basketball?  That's insane.  Also, I probably watch too much basketball.

21.  LSU.  One of my favorite sleepers this year.  Tons of guard play back and they're bringing in the #1 recruit in the country and another big deal new guy too who just got eligible.  As far as negatives go, I have a short list of what I call "dumb teams to never ever bet on" who are always dumb and do stupid stuff and lose when they shouldn't because they are dumb every year no matter what.  LSU is on that list.

22.  BAYLOR.  Baylor still?  I figured they'd drop off the face of the map with recruiting violations or something by now, but here we are.  The front court has a monster in Rico Gathers who is basically a bigger Montrezl Harrell (yes bigger) without the jump shot, but their entire back court is gone.  Oh what's that?  A really young back court coached by Scott Drew?  I smell some early season anti-Baylor wagers.

23.  PURDUE.  Another team I like, mainly because facing them is like going against a bunch of gigantic monsters from a Goosebumps book.  A.J. Hammons is seven feet tall, 261 lbs., Isaac Haas is 7-2, 297 lbs., and incoming freshman Caleb Swanigan is 6-9, 260 lbs..  It would be pretty sweet if they figured out a way to play all three at the same time.  I mean, it wouldn't make a lick of sense, but it would be pretty sweet.  Anyway, Purdue plays pretty good defense, and it's probably going to be even better next season.  They also can't shoot at all.  So there are going to be some ugly, ugly games.

24.  BUTLER.  I tried to write about Butler like 4 times.  That's probably enough.

25.  MICHIGAN.  Michigan loses nobody from last year's team, and that's good even though last year's team missed the tournament.  That was more because Caris LeVert and Derrick Walton played only 37 combined games than Michigan being an actually crappy team, because I am learning John Beilein is a wizard who doesn't make crappy teams.  They're still basically lacking any kind of skilled or capable big man and Zak Irvin is kind of wild out there, but this should be a pretty good team.  Probably better than this ranking.  Man, if Purdue could trade one of their big dudes for a shooter from Michigan, that would be pretty sweet.  College sports needs trading, would be so awesome.  Not like they care about the kids anyway, which is ok because neither do I.  PLAY GAMES FOR MY AMUSEMENT!!!

Previewing the Sweet 16 - Thursday

Calm down I'm here. Sorry. Unfortunately, the day after Selection Sunday we found out Mrs' W's grandpa died out in Utah, so it was a whirlwind of activity figuring out how to get out there, how to get the kids taken care of, and actually being there and seeing family and going from function to function and what not so I haven't been able to post anything about the Tournament. Luckily, however, the games were always on in the background and I'm really good at tuning out mindless conversation, so I know everything that happened. And, as a compulsive gambler, I probably know even more than you. Here's what's going on Thursday:


Wichita State vs. Notre Dame: Here we have that age old classic matchup of offense vs. offense, with Notre Dame averaging 1.21 points per possession (3rd in NCAA) and Wichita averaging 1.14 (16th). At first glance, Wichita seems more likely to be able to hold the Irish down than vice versa since their defense ranks much better, but playing in a weaker conference like the Missouri Valley can sometimes prop that up.  In the Shockers first two tournament games they allowed 76 points (1.1ppp) and 65 points (0.94), higher numbers than the 0.92 on the season - though the Kansas game was mighty impressive.

Notre Dame was pointed out by many as an upset prone type of team because of their reliance on the three pointer and suspect defense, and though they've shown a little better profile in the games so far (only 6 threes attempted against Northeastern, a good defensive effort vs. Butler) two three point wins, one in OT, don't have me convinced they're any less vulnerable.  Wichita is vulnerable to the three, but you have to work hard to get open shots against that defense, and they do an excellent job defending inside.  The Irish don't get offensive rebounds and don't create turnovers so they're going to have to hit open shots to score - which they are certainly capable of.

One of the most impressive things about the Shockers is they are super balanced in their inside/outside scoring.  They aren't dependent on the 3, but they can hit a ton of them if you leave it open - they beat Indiana hitting just two threes, they beat Kansas hitting ten.  The Shockers are an incredibly balanced team with no major weaknesses and a lot of strengths.  I mentioned before how a team's stats can be inflated going against inferior competition, and that's certainly a possibility here, but I think Wichita's results in the tournament the last two seasons show they aren't some overrated mid-major.  

Bet:  Wichita State -1.5 (2 UNITS), Over 137 (2 UNITS)



Wisconsin vs. North Carolina: This is a horrible matchup for the Heels. This is a team that can’t shoot, but thrives in transition and creates second chances for itself by absolutely owning the offensive boards (5th in the country). They don’t create rurnovers either, so they absolutey need those boards to score if they can’t get out and run. Now Kennedy Meeks, one of their two big time rebounders could be hurt or at least limited, and they’re about to go up against Frank Kaminsky. Yikes.

Seems pretty straight forward on the Badger end of things. Offensively they’re pretty much content to go one shot and be done, but always get that one shot. They won’t turn it over and the UNC defense doesn’t force turnovers, so most likely the Badgers will finish in single digits. They shoot the ball well enough that they won’t have to worry about creating second shot opportunities, and I expect to see four, if not five, Badgers sprinting to get back on defense as soon as a shot goes up. With everyone back and no or limited turnovers, the transition chances for the Tar Heels are going to be close to nil.

Generally the Badgers try to limit their opponents three point chances, but unfortunately Bo Ryan is smart enough to know that’s the exact opposite tact to take against North Carolina. The Badgers will likely pack the defense in and go under all screens (possible exception against Marcus Paige), forcing Carolina to make outside shots, something they’ve been horrible at this year. With Meeks status up in the air they’ll be even more limited in the paint anyway, so for them to have a chance someone like Justin Jackson or Nate Britt is going to have to suddenly learn how to shoot the lights out, or Brice Johnson will have to have the game of his life - seems unlikely. The Badgers, who hate to fast break like a fat kids hates asparagus, will send all five defensive players to the boards as well to take away as many second chance points from UNC as possible.

What does this all add up to? A slow it down, one shot each time down the court for each team kind of game. Does that sound more like a North Carolina kind of game, or a Wisconsin kind of game? I’ll give you a hint: Meeks leads the Heels in eFG% at 56.6% - four of the Badger starters are better than that, and Bronson Koenig would be if his 2-point % wasn’t so awful.

Bet: Wisconsin -5 (2 UNITS), Under 144 (5 UNITS).



West Virginia vs. Kentucky:  In order to beat Kentucky, several things have to happen and yes, all of them need to happen.  First, you have to be able to limit the monsters on the blocks.  Karl-Anthony Towns and Trey Lyles are huge, natural scoring machines, Willie Cauley-Stein is an athletic freak who's learning how to score, and Dakari Johnson is seven-feet tall and can jump over everyone's head.  Keeping them contained is no easy task, but it can be done with big, physical defenders and strategic double teams.  West Virginia doesn't defend the two well, has limited big men and only one shot blocker.  Not off to a great start.

Second, you have to hope the guards miss their outside shots and then rebound when they do.  Kentucky's one weakness is they don't have great perimeter shooting, and though they're usually smart enough to pound the ball inside the Harrison twins and Devin Booker can occasionally fall in love with the jumper shot. You'd much rather take your chances there than letting the big guys go to work in the paint, you just have to get the rebounds - easier said than done with UK rebounding 40% of their misses this season.  Kentucky's guards will have a significant size advantage over the Mountaineer guards so when they double and then close out the Wildcat shooters will be able to shoot over them, they'll just have to hope they miss and then rebound.  They're an average defensive rebounding team, so this could go either way.

Third, you have to be able to score.  Kentucky is a great, yes great, defensive team and they can shut teams down.  The good news for WVU is that they can score in some unconventional ways by excelling at getting themselves extra possessions.  The Mountaineers are #1 in the country at forcing turnovers and #4 in the country in offensive rebounding - that's a whole lot of extra shots.  They're a terrible shooting team, but they've gotten this far by creating extra scoring chances for themselves, something that will be the key to the game.  Kentucky doesn't turn the ball over much and they handled Arkansas pretty well, but they're surprisingly vulnerable to opponents' offensive rebounding. 

This will be an interesting game, because it's a team with an unconventional profile taking on Kentucky, a team they'll have to play against in a completely different way than they're used to.  Another wrinkle is Bob Huggins being involved, because no matter what you think of the guy as a person he's one hell of a coach.  Don't forget, the last time these teams matched up in the NCAA Tournament was when that John Wall/Demarcus Cousins Kentucky team looked unstoppable, and WVU won.  

Bet:  West Virginia +13.5 (2 UNITS), Under 136 (1 UNIT)



Xavier vs. Arizona:  Arizona is clearly the more talented team here.  The Wildcats have three or four future NBA draft picks on their team, one guaranteed in the lottery, and another guy who made the All Pac-12 First Team.  The Musketeers' best player is the guy everyone is making jokes about how he looks like a guy playing at the Y and is an Uber driver in his spare time.  In many ways this is your classic glitz and glamor vs. grit and hustle match-up, until you realize Arizona works its collective ass off and is one of the best defensive teams in the country so they're pretty damn gritty hustley too, just more talented.  So can Xavier keep this one close?

I think it's going to depend on if Arizona can hit threes.  Xavier tends to play a more packed in defense, giving up more three point attempts than average, and then hit the boards hard to limit second chances.  Arizona is not a great three point shooting team, although they do hit a good percentage.  The Wildcats prefer to get the ball inside, and then take threes when they're open.  Only Stanley Johnson and Gabe York took over 100 shots from behind the arc on the team this year, though they did hit each hit better than 37% so daring them to shoot is playing with fire.  There's no real easy way to stop Arizona, but keeping them out of the lane as much as possible is a good start.

Xavier is very well coached team, and as such I expect they'll realize they can't win an uptempo game against an Arizona team that thrives in transition.  This game will likely turn into a half court kind of affair, and with the Musketeers ability to keep Arizona off the offensive glass and their likely emphasis on getting back on defense rather than getting their own misses means the game will come down to Xavier not turning it over, and Xavier making enough shots to keep up with Arizona (X will likely not turn over Zona much).  The Musketeers played great offensively against both Ole Miss and Georgia State, and though Arizona is on a completely different level, Xavier so far has that look of a team that both knows it is not supposed to have gotten this far, and also knows it has nothing to lose.  Sounds kind of stupid, but it's also kind of a thing.

Bet:  Xavier +11 (1 UNIT), Under 136 (2 UNITS)

Back tomorrow for Friday's games.  

Tuesday Talkers

 I hate this time of year.  Not because of Christmas because I love Christmas because hey, no work, but because there's so little going on.  College basketball is just so slow.  There might be an interesting game or two, but in general it's pretty boring.  And next week is even worse with Christmas and stuff.  I have no idea why college kids can't play basketball over Christmas week.  I doubt they like their families anyway.  So since I have nothing else to write about and I just did a movie blog, here's just some stuff.


- Things should be a bit more entertaining when Rutgers joins the Big 10 than previously hoped.  Not because they're any good, because they're still pretty terrible at 5-7 this year (with a loss to William & Mary!) but because former Hoya Greg Whittington has committed to play for the Scarlet Knights after getting kicked off the team at Georgetown.  Whittington is a solid player who averaged 12 points and 7 rebounds per game for Georgetown last season before being ruled ineligible.  Of course I suppose it's a a question of if he ever actually arrives there considering that being ruled ineligible and then getting kicked off the team, not to mention he's dealing with ACL tear right now.  And I don't know when he'd be eligible to play or how many years he'll have left since his circumstances are a bit weird.  Hooray for information!

-  North Carolina is a fascinating team this year, and I don't just mean because they've beaten Louisville, Michigan State, and Kentucky while losing to Belmont and UAB, although that's pretty crazy in and of itself.  I mean because they're playing a completely different style than anyone else in basketball.  The average basketball team takes 32.5% of their field goal attempts from behind the 3-point arc, and scores 26% of it's total points on three-pointers.  The Tar Heels take just 15.9% of their shots from three, and that shot makes up just 10.7% of their points - both of those are dead last in the NCAA.  The team in front of them in % of attempts (Lamar) takes 19.8% of their shots from three, and the team in front of them for % of points from three (Bowling Green) gets 14.3% of their points from deep.  So North Carolina ignores the three point shot to at extent that nobody else can even touch, and it's intentional because almost every year under Roy Williams they've ranked in the 330s in those metrics (I had no idea).  It's probably a good thing since they shoot under 30% and Marcus Paige is their only halfway reliable shooter, but isn't that weird.  I think it's weird.  And I'm sharing it with you because you deserve to know weird things that are weird.

-  If you're wondering about the Gophers, and I'm sure you are since this is allegedly a Gopher blog, they take 39.6% of their shots from three (48th) and get 32.1% of their points from there (54th), shooting an above average 35.7% (vs. 33.9% national average).  These numbers are all up considerably from last season when the Gophers were ranked in the 270s, which makes sense both given the change in roster make up and Pitino's emphasis on the 3-ball.  Plus, it's way more fun.

-  Semi-Gopher related, but if Rashad Vaughn ends up at Iowa State (I said if!!) he's in for a monster year.  Hoiberg gives his guards so much freedom offensively and such little responsibility defensively that he'll end up averaging like 25 a game.  I don't know that it's the best thing for his development, but it's not like a bad defensive year will suddenly drop him out of the first round of the draft.  I really hope he's a Gopher next season, but I can see the Iowa State appeal no doubt.

-  Apparently Miramax is going to be producing a sequel to Rounders and will be turning Good Will Hunting into a television series.  These both sound like horrible ideas.  Rounders 2 could be good depending on where they take the characters, but for some reason I'm picturing a version of the Hangover with more gambling, and I suppose that could be entertaining even if it isn't necessarily "good" if you know what I mean.  The Good Will Hunting series is baffling.  I have no idea what they'd even do with it.  Hopefully someone smarter than me has that one figured out already.

- Tons of stuff going down in baseball with the winter meetings and everything, way too much to comment on in depth even for me, but I'll tackle a couple things:

• The Twins signed Phil Hughes, Ricky Nolasco, and Mike Pelfrey and are still chasing Bronson Arroyo.  I read one comment along the lines of, "I've never seen a team retool by chasing so much mediocrity" and that may be true, but mediocrity is a huge upgrade for this team.  Twins' starters had an ERA of 5.26 last season, worst in the majors by nearly half a run (0.45 to be precise).  They were the second worst in 2012 with an ERA of 5.40, better than only the Rockies.  2011?  Fifth worst at 4.64.  From 2011-2013 Twins' starters' ERA was 5.08, worst in the majors.  So yeah, Hughes, Nolasco, Pelfrey, and Arroyo might be mediocre, but they almost can't be worse than what they've been trotting out there.  Right?  RIGHT?
• Jason Kubel is back with the Twins, and that's cool because he was always one of my favorites and I even had a Kubel shirt which I have since gotten rid of (waa waa).   He signed a minor league contract with an invite to spring training, and it surprised me they got him so cheap.  Yes he was brutal last year, but in 2012 he hit 30 homers and OPS+ed 120.  He's become even more useless against lefties, but he should be a solid platoon player against right handed pitchers.  Considering Doumit hits lefties pretty well that could be a pretty good DH combo.  Of course there's no chance of that actually happening because Gardy.
• Speaking of the AL Central, I am really not liking what the White Sox are doing.  Everyone has ranked them for years as having the worst farm system, so the thought was they'd be terrible for like a decade and that made me smile because fuck the White Sox, right?  Well now all of a sudden they've acquired a young promising outfielder in Avisail Garica, a young promising outfielder in Adam Eaton, a young promising third baseman in Matt Davidson, and the latest big swinging Cuban in 1B/DH guy Jose Abreu.  The pitching is still a huge question mark behind Chris Sale, but I liked it better when Kenny Williams was burning the team down by trading away all youth and trying to fix problems by throwing money at them.  I can't remember this new guys name but he's been making a lot of mostly under the radar, smart moves and I don't like it one bit.  Now, with the two new guys, Alejandro de Aza is suddenly available, and this stupid guy will probably do something smart with him.  Sucks.
• By the way, Eaton is 5-8 and describes himself as "gritty dirt bag" kind of player.  So that should be a blast.  Hawk will probably have an orgasm on the air at some point.

-  Finally got all subscribed up with Netflix and we started watching Orange is the New Black.  Really good show.  In a world where I'm having more and more trouble finding new good shows and even some of my old favorites seem to be heading off the rails, it was refreshing to find a show that is both well made and entertaining since there are like 3 of those left.  Check it out.  It's not Breaking Bad, but what is?  Nothing.  Nothing is.  God such a good show I miss it so much.  Magnets, bitch!

-  Plus, it brings Amazonian hot Laura Prepon back in my life, which is a solid plus.

-   Semi-Gopher related, but it seems Syracuse fans have little to no interest in traveling to Houston for the Texas Bowl against the Gophers.  Instead, the fantastic Syracuse blog Troy Nunes is an Absolute Magician is organizing a donation drive among readers/fans to send under privileged Houston area kids to the game for free, with a goal of getting tickets for 200 kids (plus a hotdog, soda, and a freaking Cuse shirt).  I don't know if it's the Christmas season or getting older or having my own kids or what, but I thought this was really, really cool.  Or maybe it's just the Gopher connection.  Let's go with that.

-  I love Jay Cutler.

-  If you don't know the story behind this, it's here.

-  I know the last thing anybody really wants to hear about is someone else's fantasy woes (Jay Cutler would weight in on this one) but indulge me for a moment.  Due to Andrew Luck falling off a cliff post Reggie Wayne injury and Alex Smith suddenly lighting the world on fire I benched Luck for Smith two weekends ago in our quarterfinal.  Ended up losing by 2 points on Brandon Marshall's last catch Monday night, and would have won easily if I had kept Luck in there.  Then I would have won easily this week, so I should be in the championship, but I'm not instead at sitting around like a loser.  Fantasy football is really stupid.  And so are you.

-  I took this quiz and got 198/200 (missed Tony Allen and Brian Scalabrine).  I feel both proud and slightly embarrassed.

-  Good news for the Gophers, Florida State absolutely crushed Charlotte tonight.  The same Charlotte squad who beat Michigan earlier this year, and, with a certainly possible good year in a weak Conference USA, could end up a top 100 RPI team.  Thus, since Florida State beats them and the Gophers beat Florida State through osmosis that helps the Gophers' RPI.  Or something.  I don't know.  I'm not that bright.

-  I was gonna right more but first I got distracted by Orange is the New Black and then I realized I really hate you.

Welcome Back to the NCAA Tournament

Well the Gophers are back in the NCAA Tournament and I gotta say despite everything else it feels damn good.  I'm also pretty pleased with the 11 seed, because it keeps the Gophers away from the #1s and #2s as long as possible, although a possible second round match-up with Florida would probably be every bit the bloodbath you'd see against a #1 or #2.  I'll be back with a preview of UCLA on Wednesday night (and then will go radio silent (except twitter) until the next week as we take our annual trip to Chicago to watch all the games from the Dayton Bar with Bogart.)  I've also been informed that the Dayton Bar is also an Ole Miss bar so I'm looking forward to watching them hopefully beat the Badgers.

Anyway, here are the toughest things I'm struggling with as a fill out my bracket:

1)  Florida or Georgetown?  There were three teams I wanted to put in the final four for sure:  Louisville, Florida, or Georgetown.  Unfortunately, now I can't do that and need to make a choice between the Gators and Hoyas since they'd play in the Sweet 16 if everything holds.  I love Florida because they have so many weapons and can score inside or out, and they compliment that with great defense.  Georgetown is also an amazing defensive team, and they have Big East Player of the Year Otto Porter who is good enough to carry that offense on his back a la John Wallace or Kemba Walker.  I hate that I have to choose, but I'm going with the Gators.

2)  What do do with Wisconsin.  I hate this.  I was all set to have both Wisconsin (because I hate them) and Kansas State (because they, and Bruce Weber, suck) to lose in the first round, but it all broke wrong.  Wisconsin gets an Ole Miss team who I don't think can compete with them, and Kansas State gets the play-in winner of LaSalle and Boise State, neither of whom is very good at all.  I almost have to take K-State and Wisconsin to both win their first round match-up, and if that happens there's no way K-State can beat the Badgers because Ryan can coach circles around Weber and the Wildcats are perfectly undisciplined enough to fall right into Wisconsin's traps.  So I have Wisconsin in the Sweet 16.  Feels really wrong and icky and dirty, but since they're always the luckiest team in America you can't rule it out.  I'm still rooting against them though.  If you don't it means you hate America.

3)  Who comes out of the West?  In every other region it's come down to one or two difficult decisions between teams I think are good enough to make the Final Four, while in the West I'm decided who is least flawed among the contenders.  Gonzaga and New Mexico are good teams no doubt, but neither has been tested as often or as consistently.  Both have some good non-conference wins of course but Gonzaga ran through a pretty crappy conference and although New Mexico played in a good MWC I just don't know if I'm buying it.  That leaves Ohio State, about whom there are no questions regarding having been tested, but unless their offense continues to be about more than DeShaun Thomas they're going to struggle.  If anything wacky happens I'm betting it's in this region, because there are some really weak teams for their seed (Arizona, K-State, Wisco, etc.).  Right now I'm going to buy the Buckeyes.  The team's offense is coming together with Thomas finding plenty of help, the defense is top-notch as usual, and the coaching is solid.

4)  Can Louisville Survive?  I think the Cardinals are the best team in the NCAA and my pick to win it all, but holy hell is the Midwest Region a bitch.  I consider Oklahoma State, St. Louis, and Michigan State as dark horse Final Four candidates and sure enough, they're all here.  The only real saving grace is that Duke is the #2 here and Duke sucks so at least they catch a break there.  Even some of the really high seeds (#12 Oregon, #14 Valparaiso) are pretty dangerous.  Whoever gets out of this region is going to have to have done some seriously good work.  Luckily Louisville hits my check list - come in on a high note (not necessarily a conference tournament victory but just playing well), good guards who can make free throws, great defense, and a team who can shoot without being dependent on the 3.  So yeah, despite the tough region Louisville is my champ.

5)  Who upsets Kansas?  I know Kansas has kind of shed that choker label, what with the two Final Fours since 2008 and all, but there's no way this version of Kansas is Final Four bound so the question becomes where do they get bounced?  I'm betting they don't get out of the first weekend with North Carolina knocking them out as one of the toughest 8 seeds I can remember.  I know Carolina has been talked about as being "down" this year and maybe they are with 10 losses, but do you realize their worst loss this year was to Texas?  And after that their worst loss was to Butler?  The rest are 3 losses to Miami, 2 to Duke, and one each to Indiana, Virginia, and NC State which means the Heels don't have a single loss to a team outside of kenpom's top 100 teams.  They're probably a little too perimeter dependent to make a significant run, but they should dispatch Villanova with ease and then in a one-time game against Kansas?  It could happen, kids, it could happen.

6)  How good is Miami? That's an important question, because I don't believe in Indiana and I don't believe in Marquette, which means it's either Miami or Syracuse coming out of the East for me.  I do expect Syracuse to beat the Hoosiers and face the Canes with a Final Four berth on the line, so it becomes a matter if I think Miami is good enough to handle the Cuse.  As it turns out, I think they are.  They're experienced enough to not get rattled and they have the guard play needed to break down the Orange's zone with four guys who are lights out from three, and they play excellent defense, rebound well, and come in off an ACC Tournament Championship.  Their free throw shooting is a bit suspect, but otherwise Miami is another team who looks really, really good and I have them in my Final Four.

That's it for now, back later with a Gophers/UCLA preview.

DWG College Hoops Preview: Teams #18-#12

I wasn't able to go to the Gopher game tonight, so instead here are a few more NCAA Hoop Previews (we're almost done!).  But first, a quick check on the Big 10 teams and how they've done in the exhibitions that have been played so far.

Illinois 79-47 over Lewis and 75-66 over West Chester.   The Illini had 21 turnovers vs. just 7 assists against West Chester.  Safe to say their issues with ball-handling haven't been resolved just yet.

Indiana 86-57 over Wesleyan.  Maurice Creek led the Hoosiers in scoring with 12.  I would have sworn that dude had graduated already.

Iowa 100-54 over Quincy.  Hawks forced 31 turnovers in this game, and based on possessions in the game it looks like Iowa might be converted over to a run-and-gun, press the whole game type of team.  Tom Davis would be proud.

Michigan 83-47 over Northern Michigan.  Trey Burke was suspended for this one which clearly didn't matter.  Two of the three vaunted freshmen hit double figures.  Tim Hardaway had 5 assists and zero turnovers.  Luckily he still shoots like shit.

Michigan State 85-47 over Northwood and 62-49 over St. Cloud State.  Derrick Nix looking like he's come to play this year with a 13 & 8 and 14 & 7 in these two.  Then again, I doubt teams of that caliber have anyone who can handle someone as wide as Nix in the paint.

Nebraska:  yet to play.  They can't even figure out scheduling properly.

Northwestern:  yet to play.  You'll never make the NCAA Tournament this way.

Ohio State 83-71 over Walsh.  DeShaun Thomas scored 25 and got up 17 shots with nobody else on OSU putting up more than 9.  The man is just a scoring machine.  Breathtaking.

Penn State 79-54 over Philadelphia.  D.J. Newbill, a transfer from Southern Miss, scored 15 them and Tim Frazier scored 17 with 8 assists.  Frazier is insane.  How he can put up the kind of numbers he did last year with no help is baffling.

Purdue 70-61 over Montevallo and 109-68 over Newberry.  They have three guys named Johnson (Ronnie, Terone, and Anthony) who were the three leading scorers against Montevallo.  That's hilarious.

Wisconsin:  yet to play.  Slackers.

Anyway, on with it.  And don't forget to check out the post directly below this one for TRE's Western Conference Preview which I totally just stepped all over.

18.  Creighton Blue Jays.  You're going to hear a sickening amount about Creighton this year, and not without reason, but you know how much ESPN loves their little teams that could and Creighton is the top qualifier this year (since Gonzaga and Memphis have done it so long and no longer qualify - well maybe Gonzaga).   This is a team that beat Alabama in the first round of the NCAA Tournament last season and has nine of its top ten guys back including Doug McDermott who is somehow a National Player of the Year candidate.  The guy they lose is a big one in Antoine Young who has been their PG for three years, but he didn't even lead the team in assists last year so they'll probably be ok.  The real problem is that schedule.  They have a couple of so-so teams on there (North Texas, Cal, St. Joe's) but the only real team is Wisconsin and they just lost their PG for the season.  So it's very likely they will enter the MVC schedule undefeated and should run through there with only 1-2 losses.  Can you hear the media coverage already?  Can't you already hear Dickie V screaming about McDermott and Creighton?  Ugh.  I'm sick of it already and it hasn't even started yet.

17.  Kansas Jayhawks.  These guys rank 7th in both polls so I might be underrating them, but losing both Tyshawn Taylor and Thomas Robinson is huge - that's 34 points, 14 boards, and 7 assists just gone.  Then again, the year prior they lost the Morris twins and made the Championship Game, and the year before that they lost Sherron Collins (what happened to that guy?), Cole Aldrich, and Xavier Henry and still made the elite 8.  So I guess, what, Kansas is kind of a basketball factory?  Man, why am I always the last to know?  You know they're going to be involved on some level because you know they're always going to play defense, and even more fun is that big dopey surfer dude, Jeff Withey, is back with his 3.6 blocks per game from last year.  Man I love shotblockers.  Remember Antoine Broxsie?  God was I excited when he transferred to the Gophers.  Whiffed on that one.  He's the starting PF on my all-disappointing Gopher team (PG: Adam Boone, SG: Rico Tucker, SF: Rick Rickert , PF Broxsie, C Ralph Sampson, and Voshon Lenard's senior year should be on here somewhere too)

16.  Arizona Wildcats.  Arizona looks to be back, finally, and I for one am happy about it.  To have the alma mater of Sean Elliott and Sean Rooks be a giant suckhole was not good for my brain, man, but they're back.  A monster recruiting class (ranked #3 in the country by ESPN with four dudes in their top 100), a big-time transfer (Mark Lyons from Xavier who averaged 15 points and 3 assists per game last year and is immediately eligible thanks to that post-graduate rule that everyone who has ever used has been doing in order to further their academic career), and a couple of studs in waiting back will have Arizona back in the NCAA Tournament after their streak of I don't know like 25 years in a row or something ended last season.  FUN FACT:  Lyons was recruited to Xavier by then head coach Sean Miller.  Sean Miller is now Arizona's coach.  Good thing Arizona offered a post-grad degree Lyons was after that Xavier didn't.  What a happy coincidence. 

15.  Gonzaga Bulldogs.  I've come way around on the Bulldogs.  When they started winning a bunch of games I initially hated them the same way I currently hate Davidson - an annoying little brother winning a few too many games after hitting a lucky streak that the national media wants to make out with at all times - but now I've decided I'm a big fan.  You can't have this run of success by accident, and it's impressive how they've managed to keep it going and, stop me if you've heard this before, this season might be their best.  As per usual they're loaded in the back court with Kevin Pangos and Gary Bell, and these guys are just sophomores so you can expect them to be good for at least another few seasons, and Elias Harris is back and was good again last year so there's no reason to think he won't jump up another level in his final college year.  The key to this team's success may end up being center Sam Dower, a junior from Osseo (yes, Osseo, MN) who apparently the Gophers didn't need.  He's had a couple of nice seasons as a back-up and with Robert Sacre gone he's primed for a breakout year.  Gonzaga highlights on SportsCenter are literally going to kill me this year.  Yes, I said literally.

14.  North Carolina Tar Heels.  Normally a team starting two freshmen and two guys coming back off knee surgery would be cause for concern, but you know the deal once you start getting to this caliber of team - these aren't exactly mediocre talents.  James McAdoo, who for some reason is always called James Michael McAdoo which I am not going to do because it's annoying, could have been a Top 10 NBA pick last season if he had left despite playing just 15 minutes per game with UNC because apparently nobody remembers Marvin Williams, but he chose to stay and is immediately one of the favorites for ACC Player of the Year.  Seriously these guys will be fine.  The back-ups who played 10 minutes per game last year were all like, Top 50 recruits who were just biding their time, and they bring in the 8th ranked recruiting class which included stealing two guys (Marcus Paige from Iowa, J.P. Tokoto from Wisconsin) out of the midwest so seriously F these guys.  The only reason not to completely hate Carolina is because at least they aren't Duke.

13.  Memphis Tigers.  Guess which team hasn't won an NCAA Tournament game the last three years (no not the Gophers I mean a team that's supposed to win those games)?  Well obviously it's Memphis otherwise why would I bring it up?  That will have to change if Sam Weir look-a-like Josh Pastner wants to stay comfortable as Memphis jumps to the Big East next season, because this Memphis team is finally loaded the way those all Caliparian teams were.  They've got a very talented back court including former McDonald's All-American Shoeless Joe Jackson, Adonis Thomas (another former McD's AA who was hurt the majority of last season) is also back and healthy, and in the paint they grabbed another McD's AA in Shaq Thomas.  So yeah, I'd say Pastner's recruiting has finally caught up to what Calipari was doing when he was at Memphis.  Expect sanctions any day.

12.  Baylor Bears.  It's pretty incredible that Baylor can lose Perry Jones, Quincy Acy, and Quincy Miller all to the NBA and still have a shot at being a top 10 team this year, but Baylor has turned into a pretty incredible program.  Pierre Jackson is back to run the show after being named Honorable Mention All-American last season and was tabbed as the Big 12 Preseason Player of the Year, and his back court mate Brady Heslip is back as well to knock down a billion threes.  Add in Deuce Bello, A.J. Walton, and Gary Franklin and it's safe to say there are no questions about Baylor's guard play.  Losing the entire front court could hurt, but Baylor could easily go three guards and there's plenty of incoming talent as well.  Particularly Isaiah Austin who is the best incoming center in the country and a top-5 overall recruit - the kind of guy lesser schools would call a "program changer" but just business as usual at Baylor.  Plus J'mison Morgan is somehow still around.  I swear that dude is older than Mbakwe.


Previous:
Teams #68-60
Teams #59-53
Teams #52-47 
Teams #46-39 
Teams #38-34 
Teams #33-26 
Teams #25-20 
Team #19 (GOPHERS)

Week in Review - 3/5/2012

So MLB in their infinite wisdom has decided to add a second wild card team beginning this season whereby the first round of the playoffs will consist on one game in each league between the two wild card teams, in an attempt to cash in on the excitement the Game 163s have generated the last few years in a move that was almost certainly driven by the almighty dollar.

That being said, I like it.  Not only does it give more teams a chance to be relevant late into the season (which, face it, as a Twins fan is a big selling point) but it finally gives a meaningful advantage to the teams that win their division over the Wildcard winner.  Before the only difference was home field advantage, now winning a wild card means you play one game for your playoff life while the division winners know they have a full series coming up.  I'm 100% on board, thanks for asking.



WHO WAS AWESOME


1.  Chip Armelin.  I know the clearest sign of a terrible college season for a team is to start evaluating players in terms of their futures before the year is even over, but here we are, and Armelin played a great game against Nebraska. It was nice to see a player actually attempt to score, not to mention that scoring seemed to be the #1 thing on his mind - a true rarity on the Gopher teams of the Tubby Smith era.  He even took a heat check after he made those three treys, and as a huge fan of the heat check it was nice to see because nobody else ever does it on this team.  I'm not exactly sure how to project him going forward (assuming he stays with Minnesota) but with him, Dre Hollins, and Joe Coleman the team at least has three guard types who are aggressive with the ball and aren't afraid to attack the rim and attempt to score.  For now, at least, until Tubby beats them into submission and they start being afraid to drive. 

2.  Colonial Conference.  Well, the Colonial teams did what they were supposed to do.  The CAA had two teams in the mix for an at-large bid in VCU and Drexel, and both made it through to the CAA Final this week.  Obviously whichever team wins gets the auto-bid and the other will have to wait for Sunday and hope they get called, but they've done what the both needed to at this point.  Both are so on the bubble that it's really tough to say if they'd get in with a loss and might need to catch a few breaks but with Murray State and Creighton getting autobids that's two at-larges that are safe.  I'm hoping the committee does the right thing and let's them both in over crappy big 6 teams like Arizona, Seton Hall, or Miami, but that big conference bias has reared it's head in the past, so I'm skeptical at best.  [NOTE:  VCU ended up winning, and even though it was a close game that pretty much went down to the wire I came away less impressed with Drexel than I was the last time I watched them.  I still think they're a good, tough mid-major but I no longer think it'll be a travesty if they don't get a bid.  They'll probably just beat the Gophers in NIT round 1.]

3.  Indiana Hoosiers.  When Indiana started out the year hot I wasn't buying it.  Then they beat Kentucky and Ohio State and I was like ok maybe.  Then they lost three straight including a home loss to the Gophers and on the road at Nebraska and I was like ha ha I knew it.  Then they just kind of did what decent big ten teams always do (win at home, lose on the road, beat who you should, don't get upset, blah blah) and it was boring, but this week might have won me over.  The beat both Michigan State and Purdue handily and as everyone who was talking about anything about basketball last week made sure to let you know that's three top-five teams they've now beaten this year.  What really won me over was in watching good size chunks of both of those games they're more athletic than I thought.  They still won't be confused for Kentucky, but guys like Sheehey and Oladipo are really good athletes, and Hulls and Watford move around better than I remembered.  I still don't think they can get any further than the Sweet 16, but not long ago I was penciling them in as being upset in round 1, so they've made me rethink things a bit.

4.  Cincinnati Bearcats.  Well that's certainly how you make a run when you're stuck on the bubble come late February.  The Bearcats beat Marquette and Villanova this week (at Nova) to finish the regular season with five wins in the last six including wins over three teams in the top 56 RPI and the only loss to South Florida on the road (RPI 45).  You still can't quite guarantee they're in because that horrendous strength of schedule (#321 non-conference SOS with 9 games against sub-200 RPI teams) and the ugly loss against Presbyterian (RPI 246) which has a good chance to be the worst loss by any tournament team this year, but they're now up to 5-4 against the RPI Top 50 and 7-5 road/neutral and they simply just belong.  Their RPI is held back by that SOS and is shaky at 66 right now, but a few weeks ago they were in the mid-80s, so this is a solid run that's kind of inspiring in the same way the Gophers falling from solidly in to no shot in one short month is inspiring but the opposite.

5.  North Carolina Tar Heels.  Ruh roh.  I think everybody has known all year the Heels were behind only Kentucky in pure talent, but for whatever reason seemed to not quite be able to put it together and kind of drifted along, as double digit losses to UNLV and Florida State attest to.  I mean sure, they won lots of games and all, but they were definitely not living up to their talent level.  And then Duke won in Chapel Hill.  And something snapped.  The Heels have won their last seven, including absolutely crushing Duke's soul in Durham and easy road wins against three possible tournament teams in Virginia (lock), Miami (likely), NC State (very unlikely).  I was hoping they wouldn't figure it out so I could trust them to lose early, but looks like no such luck, and Kendall Marshall was just snubbed for ACC first team so, well, yeah, there's that.  And keep in mind that Roy Williams has no interest in conference tournaments so if/when UNC flames out early in the ACC tourney don't let that affect your NCAA picks.  Or let it.  More sweet sweet delicious sexy money for me sex.


WHO SUCKED

1.  St. Louis Cardinals.  Lemme get this straight.  First, you lose your best player, maybe the best player of his generation and the face of your franchise because you can't afford to pay him.  Then you turn around and give your catcher $15mm per year?  So let's see.  Pujols got 10 years, $240 million from the Angels for an average salary of $24 million each season.  From what I can find, the biggest offer the Cardinals put on the table was 9 years, $205 million - or $22.78 million per.  You're telling me you couldn't take a few extra million you offered Molina and use it to re-sign Pujols and then offer Molina $13 per instead of $15?  You're telling me he wouldn't take that?  Seems like knee jerk reaction to make sure you don't lose your second most beloved player after botching it on the first.  Then again, my favorite team gave their catcher 800 bajillion dollars to sit on the bench, so who am I to talk.

2.  Wichita State.  Losing in the semis of a middle tier conference tournament to a non-descript Illinois State team is never a good thing, but in this case it doesn't really bother me nor my love for the Shockers (the team, not the act).  First of all and most importantly they're already guaranteed an at-large bid thanks to a very good resume, so this loss doesn't knock them out.  Some people will say they'll be more rested but I don't really care about that because a couple of days doesn't make much difference to a 20-year old college athlete, but what I really like is this will knock their seed down a peg.  If they're a 5 or 6 instead of a 3 or 4 fewer people will pick them to make the sweet 16 and even fewer will pick them to make the Elite 8 so when I do and they do I will be the winner and the money will be mine all mine oh sweet money yes I want the money oh yes. 

3.  The Pac-12.  I'm starting to think they should just go ahead and not invite anyone from the Pac-10, including the conference winner.  Arizona starts to look like they're in decent shape and they lose to atrocious Arizona State (RPI 248) to knock them out of the running for a bid.  Washington starts to look like they could maybe get comfortable and they lose to UCLA (RPI 112).  Cal nearly has a bid completely sewn up, but they lose to Stanford (RPI 95), and suddenly nobody is anywhere near a lock.  If Cal and/or Washington get to the Pac-12 final they're probably ok, especially with all the chalk winning the conference tourneys so far, but if they come up short this might really be a one bid league.  At this point the right move might be to just give it to Oregon, because they at least seem like they want to make it and have won four straight.  Don't be shocked if the Ducks end up taking this tournament and the only Pac-12 bid this year.

4.  Iona Gaels.  Well shit.  I couldn't be more bummed about the Gaels losing in the quarters of the MAAC Tournament, because this is a really good, fun, dangerous team and suddenly they're probably not going to get a bid to the NCAAs.  That loss (to Fairfield) gives Iona they're fourth loss to a sub-100 RPI team with two of those teams being sub-200, and that's not going to help, especially considering there's only one win over a top 50 team (Nevada).  They 5-3 record over the Top 100 is fine and the RPI is ok at 46, but there's an awful lot of questions about the profile here.  If they had made the conference final and lost to Loyola (RPI 85) they'd be in a lot better shape, but if ifs and buts were candy and nuts every day would be Erntedankfest.

5. Seton Hall Pirates.  As much as Cincinnati might be the poster team for doing things the right way to get a bid, Seton Hall might be your classic team that does something awesome to make their fans think they're going to do it and then fuck it all up, or as I like to call it, "pulling a Gopher."  Really though, since beating Georgetown and making everybody say "well shit this Seton Hall team might be the goods" the Pirates have lost to Rutgers (RPI 153) and DePaul (RPI 193) which is like LOL.  They play Providence tomorrow (today, if you're reading this instead of doing work) and although the Friars aren't exactly good or anything like that, they do own wins this year over Louisville and UCONN so it's not like they're a piece of crap.  Plus I'd rather have Providence win so we can forget all about this shitty team who sucks and maybe they can get Iona in there instead.  Do it for the children.



And with that I'm out of here.  Off to the great state of Florida with the family to be closely followed by a trip to Chicago to watch the NCAA Tournament with Bogart, Dawger, and Snake.  Probably drink some beer, some vodka, some redbull, and eat a few wings, too.  So I have no idea if/when I'll be posting again.  I'll try to get something up when I'm in Florida, but god willing I'll be too busy.  Then again, the whole family will be there so maybe I'll have to pretend to "work" and blog it up.  You hope.

Lastly I want to mention that I won our Big 10 Fantasy League, beating Bogart in a thriller in the championship and a big thank you to Drew Crawford.  Dawger finished dead last.

My look at the Top 25 (part I - with bonus book review)

Ok I admit it - that Gopher loss to Iowa has completely drained me of my caringnessitude about this season.  I'll be back if they beat Wisconsin, but right now I don't see anything in this team that makes me believe they're going to snag an NCAA bid, and that's the whole point of the season.  That's why I took a nap on Sunday instead of watching them play Nebraska - I couldn't bear to watch another road implosion.  Luckily and happily for me, they ended up winning which is good.  Now it's time to play an extremely overrated Wisconsin team and if they can't win this one, that'll pretty much do it for the season.  I may write a preview and I may not, but you know what you're getting from the Badgers anyway.  Instead, I'm going to focus on the National Picture a bit, and give my thoughts on the Top 25.  I did this last year and it was a big hit with me and I don't really care about anyone else.  These are the rankings in the ESPN/USA today poll, not my personal rankings.

1. Kentucky Wildcats.  I think there are four teams this year that are head and shoulders above everybody else in terms of pure talent (Kentucky, Missouri, Baylor, and UNC) but Kentucky is head and shoulders above the other three who are head and shoulders above the rest and they're playing up to their talent this year.  Only loss is that 1-pointer at Indiana, and they've won 8 of their last 10 by at least double digits.  You're always at risk in the tournament with a young team and a coach who is 95% recruiter/5% game coach, but Doron Lamb, Terrence Jones, and Darius Miller have been there before and can give you some leadership where Calipari fails.  They also only go 6.5 deep even with all the blowouts so that's a concern (and I have no idea why Cal isn't giving more run to some other guys in these big wins to help hedge against possible foul trouble in a tournament game when you need someone to step in).  Plenty of worries here, but I'm going to have an awfully hard time picking anybody else as my national champion come bracket fill-out time. 

2.  Syracuse Orange.  I didn't list the Cuse as one of those top-4 talented teams this year but that's no slight to them because I think they do the best job of playing as an overall "team" (along with Mizzou).  Now that the Fab Melo situation has been figured out they've got a rare mix of players where they can dominate you in the paint, on the perimeter, or slashing to the hole and with their athlete's this year Boeheim's zone might be one of his best ever.  Opponent's do kill them on the offensive boards which can spell doom in a tight one, and I'm having trouble buying them completely because they lack any single win you can point to and say "holy shit Cuse is the goods", but they aren't 23-1 by accident.  Probably the one top team where I'm just not quite sure what to think.

3.  Ohio State Buckeyes.  Ohio State is a team I think is flying a little bit under the radar right now, as much as that's possible for a team ranked third in the country.  They beat Wisconsin this weekend in a slow-it-down, plodding game and just a couple of weeks ago beat Indiana in a more uptempo game.  Their ability to win without having to dictate the pace of the game is a huge positive, not to mention that in William Buford and Jared Sullinger they have what might be the best inside-outside scoring duo in the country right now.  They're a bit suspect from a big man stand point outside of Sullinger and, as usual, don't have much depth, but unless DeShaun Thomas shoots them right out of a game they have a great chance at another Final Four berth.

4.  Missouri Tigers.  One of the only teams I consider both supremely talented and supremely "team-y" for lack of a better term, Mizzou would be my clear pick to take the whole thing in March if it wasn't for damn Kentucky.  The Tigers have a reputation as a high-scoring, fast-paced team and they are high-scoring, but they score a ton of points not because they play so fast (105th in the country in tempo) but because they're so efficient (#1 in offensive efficiency).  Simply put, they make a lot of shots (#2 in the country in effective FG%) and they take a lot of shots because they rarely turn the ball over (#4 in the country) - thus they score a ton of points and force you to keep up.  They have the best back court in the nation and although they look a little weak on the front line since they only really have one true forward in Ricardo Ratliffe, their win going into Baylor and taking on maybe the best front court in college tells me everything I know - it's either going to be Missouri or Kentucky cutting down the nets at the end.

5.  North Carolina Tar Heels.  Probably the second most talented team in the NCAA behind Kentucky, but they seem to missing every single intangible quality possible - nothing new for a Roy Williams led team.  There's no leadership, no hustle, no killer instinct, and no drive.  I know they only have three losses, but in two of those they were absolutely crushed (by UNLV and Florida State).  And really, outside of the season opening win against Michigan State on a boat do they have a really good win?  Wisconsin is overrated, Texas is terrible, and although Long Beach is a very good mid-major that's still all they are.  I can't really guarantee an early exit because there is so much talent here, but Harrison Barnes, Kendall Marshall, and Tyler Zeller are all quite types who are looking for someone to follow - one of them needs to become THE guy or we're looking at a non-sweet 16 team here.

6.  Baylor Bears.  I have a feeling this is going to be the trendy pick for the Final Four (say they're a two seed) to come out of whatever region they end up in and it's tough to argue with - their two losses have been to Missouri and Kansas and that's it.  One underrated aspect of Baylor is they are one of the best free throw shooting teams in the country at 74.2% (35th in the nation) and that's helped them win a lot of close ones (six wins over major conference foes of 5 pts or fewer) and could be a difference maker in March.  The big worry is although Pierre Jackson has helped them out with the ball-handling this year Baylor is still one of the worst teams in the country in turning the ball over, and as we know one bad game and you're done.

7.  Florida Gators.  I still think Florida is a Final Four contender because they have such a good back court, but neither Patric Young nor Erik Murphy has become a consistent inside force and that's what they'll need to make a run because despite being perimeter oriented they aren't very good defensively.  Erving Walker has settled down and become less chucker and more distributor and he's really allowed Boynton and Beal to flourish.  I would love to see a Florida/Missouri match-up - the over/under would be about 170.

8.  Murray State Racers.  Please.  They've played nobody, and I mean nobody.  Their strength of schedule is 251, and non-conference it's 119.  The only teams they've played that are "real" teams are Memphis (won by 4), Southern Miss (won in double OT), and Dayton (won by 17) and there's a good chance non of them make the NCAA Tournament, which would make Murray State 0-0 against NCAA Tournament teams.  It's a cute team and a cute story, but not only have they not played anyone they aren't even beating the bad teams all that convincingly.  They shoot over 40% from three so you can't completely write them off, but I have a pretty strong feeling they're a first game loss.

9.  Duke Blue Devils.  Same year same basic soft Duke team where all you really need is a strong inside dude who can push their finesse big guys around and some guards who can get said big man the ball as well as defend the three.  It's why they lost to Florida State and why they lost to Miami on Sunday.  Mike Kryzkyzkewski loves pansies - it's true.

SIDE BAR:  I just finished up reading this book - The Last Great Game by Gene Wojciechowski who, to the best of my knowledge, is not related to that little Duke wiener, and I rather enjoyed it despite half the book being about Duke.  That might have been the best part, because it basically proved that Christian Laettner really was an asshole, Bobby Hurley really was a whiner, and that Duke team was one of the least likeable teams in the history of history.   The Kentucky half of the book is even better, since I was young enough at that time I didn't really realize how crazy it was that UK was even in that position considering the massive sanctions they were under in the few years prior.  To get Pitino from the NBA, keep several of their recruits from fleeing despite the team being banned from the postseason, and for Pitino to get a recruit the caliber of Jamal Mashburn despite him knowing he couldn't play in the tournament is all just crazy.  And Wojo (this one, not the annoying little rat) either has really old notes or a lot of these guys have incredible memories, because he paints a very vivid and detailed picture.  Really, if you dig on college hoops books - as I do - I put this right up there with Feinstein's best work.

10.  Kansas Jayhawks.  The Jayhawks are interesting because even though I'm not necessarily impressed with them so far this year, they are the only team other than Kentucky who ranks in the top 10 in Ken Pomeroy's both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings.  Maybe I should be, but I always worry about team's that are so reliant on two players (Thomas Robinson and Tyshawn Taylor use a combined nearly 60% of KU's possessions).  I know that those two are worthy of that kind of reliance - both are probably top 10 National Player of the Year candidates right now - but a bad game from either of them probably dooms them. 

11.  Georgetown Hoyas.  Georgetown certainly wasn't supposed to be here after losing three starters from last year's team, but Henry Sims has really stepped up in his senior year (tripled his scoring and doubled or nearly doubled everything else) and they've gotten major contributions from some unheralded freshmen and have ridden their defense to a surprising 18-4 record.  And that's really all I got, because watching a Georgetown game makes me sleepy.

12.  Michigan State Spartans.  I could be wrong, but I think this might be one of Izzo's best teams.  Sure, they've lost a couple road games in the Big Ten but that's to be expected.  Don't forget after they lost to UNC and Duke to open the season they went on a 15-game winning streak which included wins over Florida State and Gonzaga, as well as Indiana and Wisconsin if you're impressed by that sort of thing.  The emergence in the second part of the season of Keith Appling has taken a lot of pressure off Draymond Green who is a lot better when he can concentrate on rebounding and facilitating the offense and let his points come naturally rather than having to carry the full offensive load.  Looking at this group and with Izzo's March history they could be a Final Four team with the right draw.

13.  St. Mary's Gaels.  I didn't even realize St. Mary's was all that good this year, but the whitey whitersons are 11-0 in the WCC (and don't forget, BYU is here now too) and are 6-2 against the RPI Top 100.  And Matthew Dellavedova doesn't just have one of the coolest names and sexiest hair in the NCAA, he's one of the best all-around guards as well.  I really need to catch one of their games this year before the tournament (maybe the Bracket Busters game against Murray State) so I can really evaluate them but it's clear they can light it up, and that always makes 'em dangerous.

14.  San Diego State Aztecs.  Even more surprising than G-Town being ranked highly is SDSU being up here because they lost almost everything from last year's team and it was looking like it'd be another case of a mid-major having everything come together and then crashing down after graduations/early defections, but Jamaal Franklin has gone from bit player to superstar, while Chase Tapley has gone from afterthought to star and SDSU is 6-1 in a tough Mountain West and already has wins over the other two major players in UNLV and New Mexico.  Next week is a monster because they play the Rebels Saturday and New Mexico the following Wednesday so if they handle that it may be time to start looking at them as a legit Final Four contender.

15.  Creighton Blue Jays.  These guys are really annoying because everyone is slobbering all over them, but what I see is a terrible defensive team playing in a way down Missouri Valley whose only significant non-conference win is over the aforementioned SDSU.  They're going to be somewhere in that 4-7 range for a seed and I have a feeling they're going to end up being a pretty trendy Sweet 16 pick (or more).  It could happen, because they do have a player of the year candidate who could carry them in Doug McDermott and they can really shoot the lights out, but if they end up going against a 13-10 seed who can score with them they could be a first round casualty - Iona or Oral Roberts would be a terrible matchup for them. 



So that's part 1.  I was going to do it all at once but then I got about 8 teams deep and I was all like oh god this is a lot of teams.  So I'm cutting her off at 15 for now.  I might do the next 10 (+ some notables who received votes) tomorrow night but I might go out to the bar instead.  Hell, I might be do both because I'm just crazy like that.

Also on the numbers me, Snacks, and Old Man split we had 8-7 for the Super Bowl so if Bradshaw doesn't score and the Giants instead kick a field goal two win 18-17 we would have won BOATLOADS divided by three.  But alas, I sit here.  Still poor.