Previewing the Sweet 16 - Thursday

Calm down I'm here. Sorry. Unfortunately, the day after Selection Sunday we found out Mrs' W's grandpa died out in Utah, so it was a whirlwind of activity figuring out how to get out there, how to get the kids taken care of, and actually being there and seeing family and going from function to function and what not so I haven't been able to post anything about the Tournament. Luckily, however, the games were always on in the background and I'm really good at tuning out mindless conversation, so I know everything that happened. And, as a compulsive gambler, I probably know even more than you. Here's what's going on Thursday:


Wichita State vs. Notre Dame: Here we have that age old classic matchup of offense vs. offense, with Notre Dame averaging 1.21 points per possession (3rd in NCAA) and Wichita averaging 1.14 (16th). At first glance, Wichita seems more likely to be able to hold the Irish down than vice versa since their defense ranks much better, but playing in a weaker conference like the Missouri Valley can sometimes prop that up.  In the Shockers first two tournament games they allowed 76 points (1.1ppp) and 65 points (0.94), higher numbers than the 0.92 on the season - though the Kansas game was mighty impressive.

Notre Dame was pointed out by many as an upset prone type of team because of their reliance on the three pointer and suspect defense, and though they've shown a little better profile in the games so far (only 6 threes attempted against Northeastern, a good defensive effort vs. Butler) two three point wins, one in OT, don't have me convinced they're any less vulnerable.  Wichita is vulnerable to the three, but you have to work hard to get open shots against that defense, and they do an excellent job defending inside.  The Irish don't get offensive rebounds and don't create turnovers so they're going to have to hit open shots to score - which they are certainly capable of.

One of the most impressive things about the Shockers is they are super balanced in their inside/outside scoring.  They aren't dependent on the 3, but they can hit a ton of them if you leave it open - they beat Indiana hitting just two threes, they beat Kansas hitting ten.  The Shockers are an incredibly balanced team with no major weaknesses and a lot of strengths.  I mentioned before how a team's stats can be inflated going against inferior competition, and that's certainly a possibility here, but I think Wichita's results in the tournament the last two seasons show they aren't some overrated mid-major.  

Bet:  Wichita State -1.5 (2 UNITS), Over 137 (2 UNITS)



Wisconsin vs. North Carolina: This is a horrible matchup for the Heels. This is a team that can’t shoot, but thrives in transition and creates second chances for itself by absolutely owning the offensive boards (5th in the country). They don’t create rurnovers either, so they absolutey need those boards to score if they can’t get out and run. Now Kennedy Meeks, one of their two big time rebounders could be hurt or at least limited, and they’re about to go up against Frank Kaminsky. Yikes.

Seems pretty straight forward on the Badger end of things. Offensively they’re pretty much content to go one shot and be done, but always get that one shot. They won’t turn it over and the UNC defense doesn’t force turnovers, so most likely the Badgers will finish in single digits. They shoot the ball well enough that they won’t have to worry about creating second shot opportunities, and I expect to see four, if not five, Badgers sprinting to get back on defense as soon as a shot goes up. With everyone back and no or limited turnovers, the transition chances for the Tar Heels are going to be close to nil.

Generally the Badgers try to limit their opponents three point chances, but unfortunately Bo Ryan is smart enough to know that’s the exact opposite tact to take against North Carolina. The Badgers will likely pack the defense in and go under all screens (possible exception against Marcus Paige), forcing Carolina to make outside shots, something they’ve been horrible at this year. With Meeks status up in the air they’ll be even more limited in the paint anyway, so for them to have a chance someone like Justin Jackson or Nate Britt is going to have to suddenly learn how to shoot the lights out, or Brice Johnson will have to have the game of his life - seems unlikely. The Badgers, who hate to fast break like a fat kids hates asparagus, will send all five defensive players to the boards as well to take away as many second chance points from UNC as possible.

What does this all add up to? A slow it down, one shot each time down the court for each team kind of game. Does that sound more like a North Carolina kind of game, or a Wisconsin kind of game? I’ll give you a hint: Meeks leads the Heels in eFG% at 56.6% - four of the Badger starters are better than that, and Bronson Koenig would be if his 2-point % wasn’t so awful.

Bet: Wisconsin -5 (2 UNITS), Under 144 (5 UNITS).



West Virginia vs. Kentucky:  In order to beat Kentucky, several things have to happen and yes, all of them need to happen.  First, you have to be able to limit the monsters on the blocks.  Karl-Anthony Towns and Trey Lyles are huge, natural scoring machines, Willie Cauley-Stein is an athletic freak who's learning how to score, and Dakari Johnson is seven-feet tall and can jump over everyone's head.  Keeping them contained is no easy task, but it can be done with big, physical defenders and strategic double teams.  West Virginia doesn't defend the two well, has limited big men and only one shot blocker.  Not off to a great start.

Second, you have to hope the guards miss their outside shots and then rebound when they do.  Kentucky's one weakness is they don't have great perimeter shooting, and though they're usually smart enough to pound the ball inside the Harrison twins and Devin Booker can occasionally fall in love with the jumper shot. You'd much rather take your chances there than letting the big guys go to work in the paint, you just have to get the rebounds - easier said than done with UK rebounding 40% of their misses this season.  Kentucky's guards will have a significant size advantage over the Mountaineer guards so when they double and then close out the Wildcat shooters will be able to shoot over them, they'll just have to hope they miss and then rebound.  They're an average defensive rebounding team, so this could go either way.

Third, you have to be able to score.  Kentucky is a great, yes great, defensive team and they can shut teams down.  The good news for WVU is that they can score in some unconventional ways by excelling at getting themselves extra possessions.  The Mountaineers are #1 in the country at forcing turnovers and #4 in the country in offensive rebounding - that's a whole lot of extra shots.  They're a terrible shooting team, but they've gotten this far by creating extra scoring chances for themselves, something that will be the key to the game.  Kentucky doesn't turn the ball over much and they handled Arkansas pretty well, but they're surprisingly vulnerable to opponents' offensive rebounding. 

This will be an interesting game, because it's a team with an unconventional profile taking on Kentucky, a team they'll have to play against in a completely different way than they're used to.  Another wrinkle is Bob Huggins being involved, because no matter what you think of the guy as a person he's one hell of a coach.  Don't forget, the last time these teams matched up in the NCAA Tournament was when that John Wall/Demarcus Cousins Kentucky team looked unstoppable, and WVU won.  

Bet:  West Virginia +13.5 (2 UNITS), Under 136 (1 UNIT)



Xavier vs. Arizona:  Arizona is clearly the more talented team here.  The Wildcats have three or four future NBA draft picks on their team, one guaranteed in the lottery, and another guy who made the All Pac-12 First Team.  The Musketeers' best player is the guy everyone is making jokes about how he looks like a guy playing at the Y and is an Uber driver in his spare time.  In many ways this is your classic glitz and glamor vs. grit and hustle match-up, until you realize Arizona works its collective ass off and is one of the best defensive teams in the country so they're pretty damn gritty hustley too, just more talented.  So can Xavier keep this one close?

I think it's going to depend on if Arizona can hit threes.  Xavier tends to play a more packed in defense, giving up more three point attempts than average, and then hit the boards hard to limit second chances.  Arizona is not a great three point shooting team, although they do hit a good percentage.  The Wildcats prefer to get the ball inside, and then take threes when they're open.  Only Stanley Johnson and Gabe York took over 100 shots from behind the arc on the team this year, though they did hit each hit better than 37% so daring them to shoot is playing with fire.  There's no real easy way to stop Arizona, but keeping them out of the lane as much as possible is a good start.

Xavier is very well coached team, and as such I expect they'll realize they can't win an uptempo game against an Arizona team that thrives in transition.  This game will likely turn into a half court kind of affair, and with the Musketeers ability to keep Arizona off the offensive glass and their likely emphasis on getting back on defense rather than getting their own misses means the game will come down to Xavier not turning it over, and Xavier making enough shots to keep up with Arizona (X will likely not turn over Zona much).  The Musketeers played great offensively against both Ole Miss and Georgia State, and though Arizona is on a completely different level, Xavier so far has that look of a team that both knows it is not supposed to have gotten this far, and also knows it has nothing to lose.  Sounds kind of stupid, but it's also kind of a thing.

Bet:  Xavier +11 (1 UNIT), Under 136 (2 UNITS)

Back tomorrow for Friday's games.  

What did we Learn from the Marathon?

Unfortunately I couldn't make it to the Gophers latest butt whooping of Toledo but that doesn't stop me from having a couple of quick thoughts on the team and yes it feels a bit weird to have concerns about a team that's 2-0 with wins by 36 and 26 but here we are.  I have 3.

1.  I want to know what's going on with Trevor Mbakwe.  His line looked better in this Toledo game (6 pts - 7 boards - 2 blks) but he still only played 14 minutes which is the same number of minutes he played in the game against American.  Is he still hurt?  Is this some sort of punishment?  I'd really like to know.

2.  Nineteen turnovers against Toledo?  Gross.  Loyola-Illinois, who is terrible, turned it over just 15 times against Toledo.

3.  Is Andre Hollins ok?  Maybe all the expectations are getting to him and he's pressing a bit (2-15 shooting so far, 4 TOs vs. 1 assist vs. Toledo) or maybe he's got something else going on in his head that's hurting his concentration (the shooting, plus five missed free throws already this year vs. just nine all of last season).

 It's early and the team is winning, but all three of these need to get figured out before they start playing real games or they're going to be in trouble.  This Thursday's game against Tennessee State is a losable game, so they may as well start playing better ASAP.  The defense and rebounding have been absolutely outstanding, however, and that's a very good sign even against this level of competition.  Small sample size and all, but kenpom rates the Gophers as the 8th best defensive team in the country statistically (includes rebounding) and that does take quality of competition into account (for example, American shot 24% against the Gophers and 53% in their next game against Quinnipiac - that bodes well for the Gophers). 

Also, in case you were unaware somehow, ESPN just did a 24-hour college basketball marathon.  Thanks to a flexible work environment that allows working from home and the miracle of internet access I was able to take in a decent amount of it.  Here's what I thought was worth noting.

1.  I watched the first half of Youngstown/Georgia (not part of the marathon) and figured Georgia's first half performance (3-24 shooting) would be the ugliest thing I saw all week, but I was wrong because West Virginia looked absolutely god awful in getting destroyed by Gonzaga.  The Bulldogs also looked pretty good and definitely had something to do with it, but WVU just got destroyed on every level.  Gonzaga had open shot after open shot (52% Shooting, 56% from 3) while WVU just threw up bricks (shot 27%, 11% from 3) and I saw at least two times in the first half where a Mountaineer 3-point attempt hit the backboard before it hit the rim.  I'm sure WVU will end up being not this terrible since they're relying on three transfers to pretty much carry the team this year and that always seems to take a while to gel, but that was one of the ugliest performances I can remember watching from a team that was supposed to at least be in the mix for an at-large bid since every Gopher game ever.

2. Kendall Williams (New Mexico) is a stud PG.  I didn't stay up late enough to watch this one after WVU put me to sleep, but Williams put up a line of 17 pts - 6 rebs - 7 assists - 0 turnovers.  Nice. 

3.  The Gophers could have used Siyani Chambers.  The freshman point guard from Hopkins ended up at Harvard because that was basically the only school that recruited him and oh my did he look good against UMass, nearly leading the Crimson to a big upset playing all 40 minutes and finishing with 14 pts, 5 rebs, and 7 assists to just 1 turnover and even more impressive than the stats was just watching him.  He completely controlled the game when Harvard had the ball (his defense, on the other hand, was pretty atrocious).  It got to the point where UMass won the game by doing everything possible to keep the ball out of his hands when they ran their press and then the Harvard dopes turned it over twice in the final minute leading to a pretty surprising comeback win for the Minutemen when it looked like this game was in the bag for Harvard.  Anyway, this kids poise and ability to run an offense was shocking considering it was just his second game ever.  I know we think we're in good shape with Andre Hollins, but I gotta say this looks like a whiff for Tubby (assuming he figures out  the defense thing).

4. The Horizon race should be pretty good this year.  Valpo killed Northern Illinois (not like that's hard) and Detroit was giving it to St. John's pretty good before they fell apart.  I could see either team winning a game or two in the NCAA Tournament.  Of course seeing as how those two teams are head and shoulders above the rest of the conference it probably means we can expect Cleveland State or something to get the auto-bid.

5.  I thought this might be the worst version of Xavier we've seen in a very long time.  Turns out it looks like this might be the worst version of Butler we've seen in a long time.  I'm interested to see how this turns out with Brad Stevens if Butler bombs again.  I realize he's built up all kinds of leeway with the back-to-back Finals runs, but the last couple of years have been really bad (if I'm right about this year) and if Butler doesn't get back to the tournament soon he's going to go from being known as a wunderkind to just another guy at a small school.  He's already been replaced by Shaka Smart as the small school program builder who doesn't bolt du juor and with Tim Miles and John Groce (among others) taking advantage of March runs to move up in the world I wonder if Stevens has already blown his chance.  Considering he was born in Indiana and never left he might not even care, which is good because soon he might not have a choice.

6. Michigan State and Kansas are going to be just fine.  Not that there was ever much doubt, but both teams lost significant, and I mean significant, players from last season so there was part of me that wondered if they'd struggle but both looked very good in Michigan State's 67-64 victory.  Both teams were a little sloppy (31 combined turnovers) but both offenses look to be almost in prime shape already.  Keith Appling was sick (19 points and an insane lay-up to put MSU up 3 with 15 secs left) and Gary Harris joined him in the back court (18 points) to make the Spartans look like they might actually have the best guards in the Big 10 and Branden Dawson looks like he's all the way back from a knee injury.  For Kansas it's much the same story with Ben McLemore and Elijah Johnson looking like they can step right in and be a very, very good pair of guards.  What an awesome game this was.  Although that final Kansas play looked very Tubby Smith-errific.

7.  I have no idea how VCU got beaten by Wichita.  VCU has their entire team back.  Wichita has nobody back.  I thought Wichita would finally fade away, but apparently they just re-load.  Must be sweet.

8.  Alex Poythress is ridiculous.  I have no idea why I didn't know how athletic this guy is but I'd put him up there with Michael Kidd-Gilchrist last year.  It's probably because his name sounds pretty nerdy.  Honestly I couldn't even have told you if he was white or black before tonight because I didn't know anything about him, I just thought he sounded kind of like a nerd.  He's not.  He just dunks on Duke nerds' heads.  He's like a taller Rico Tucker.

Realistically looking at the year prior (Championship) and the year after (have you seen that recruiting class?) this is the worst team of that three year span for Kentucky and it's not really even close, and yet I'd be shocked if they aren't in the Final Four this year again.  Betwixt Calipari's ability to recruit the one-and-done type talent and the mystique and allure (good stripper names, fyi) of Kentucky that place is set up to be the closest thing to a dynasty since UCLA in the 60s or 70s or whatever.  Maybe both.  Effing Kareem.

9.  The other day I went my whole family went to Joe's Crab Shack to celebrate my birthday and there was this dude at the table next to us who ate his corn on the cob with a fork.  And I don't mean like that he cut the kernels off with a knife and then ate them like niblets, I mean he straight up just used his fork to scoop it right off the cob.  I wasn't sure if it was impressive or not but then Snacks got his dainty thing on and was like "I hate corn on the cob because I don't like getting it in my teeth and stuff" and he tried it and couldn't do it.  So basically this dude had a lifetime of experience of scooping corn kernels off the cob with a knife.  He was like MacGyver crossed with Mr. Pitt.  I didn't know if I should laugh or be impressed, but I certainly made sure to have everyone look.  Changed my life.

Week in Review: 2-27/2012

I have no idea what to say or how to say it.  We've been down this road again and again and written this same recap again and again.  That was just an embarrassing loss, particularly when the season was on the line (as thin as that line may have been) and it was a home game against a team you've already beaten on the road.  To get absolutely blown out in a must-win home game sends pretty much the loudest message possible to the committee that you don't belong in the NCAA Tournament.  Even winning out the last two and making a run to the conference tournament final probably isn't enough anymore, but we don't really have to worry about it because there is zero chance this team can win at Wisconsin.  They've checked out.

I don't think they've checked out on Tubby, but they've certainly checked out on this season.  The body language says it all, and Ralph's 1-11 shooting performance on Sunday basically sums it up.  This is a defeated team, and Tubby feels it as well.  At this point these two games need to just end, then lose in the first round of the b10 tourney, and start planning for next year.  It's clear the players just want this season to end, and I can't blame them because it's been miserable these last couple of weeks.  But I'm not on the fire Tubby bandwagon, even if I've been critical of his game coaching abilities.  I remain critical of those, but he deserves one more year, but it's a make or break year.  If there's another season that goes similarly to this one, it's time to move on.  The important thing is to build a program, and if he misses another NCAA Tournament, well, there's no building going on.  One more year, Tubby.  Show us why we were all excited when the hiring was initially announced.  This is just sad.

I mean, look at Notre Dame this year.  Both the Gophers and Notre Dame received exactly one 25th place vote in a poll to start the season (Gophers in the AP, Notre Dame in the coaches).  Both teams lost their best player for the year, a senior power forward, early in the season (like Mbakwe for the Gophers, Tim Abromaitis led the team in both scoring and rebounding when he went down).  Neither team had any kind of real impact freshman coming in, so post-injury both schools looked to be in trouble.  But, where the Gophers have struggled and floundered and canceled out any flashes of brilliance with some terrible outings, Notre Dame has played together, executed well consistently, and completely bought in to Mike Brey's system and is 20-10 overall, 12-5 in the Big East, and a lock for the tournament.  Look at these two teams.  It's hard to say Notre Dame is significantly more talented, if at all, than the Gophers, and yet look at the results.  Unsettling, at best.

We move on....


WHO WAS AWESOME

1.  Iowa State Cyclones.  Well, for those of you out there who were complete idiots and were saying Fred Hoiberg was some kind of moron for collected talented yet troubled transfers (and you know who you are) how about you pour some Bacardi 151 in your butthole and chase it with a match?  Because Iowa State just won at Kansas State - the same K-State who just beat both Baylor and Missouri on the road - to move to 11-5 in Big 12 play and 21-8 overall.  They're now tied for 4th with Baylor in the Conference and have now 100% locked up an NCAA bid.  While the Gophers need a miracle.  I'm moving to Ames.  Plus they got craps there.

2.  Purdue Boilermakers.  While every other Big 10 team who was chasing a bid goes down faster than your mom on prom night, Purdue is taking a stand and doing what needs to be done like full grown men.  I'm just kidding about that sentence by the way, it's intentionally douchey (except for the mom joke, that's all me).  Anyway, while everyone else is pooping on their heads, Purdue went into Ann Arbor and beat Michigan, a team that was undefeated at home this year, was ranked #11 in the polls, #10 in the RPI, and #21 in kenpom's ratings.  That, my friends, is the definition of a signature win and puts Purdue firmly into tournament lock status.  And you know how they won?  Because Terone Johnson shot 9-12 for 22 points and carried the offense.  You know the last time an unsung-y Gopher like Johnson stepped up to carry the team to a victory?  Caddyshack.  Cue rimshot.

3.  Kansas Jayhawks.  I kind of feel like I've been underrating the Jayhawks all year, mainly because they're a two-man show and also because I hate them and have hated them since that little wiener Jeff Boschee was running around being wienery.  But they're about to win the Big 12 for the 9th straight year* after beating Missouri, and that win was a freaking ballsy ass win because they were down 19 and came back against an incredibly good team.  And Thomas Robinson?  Holy hell is this guy good.  He's nearly flawless in the low post, and because Missouri only has one low-post kind of defender in Ricardo Ratliffe (who, by the way, is completely awesome in his own way) they chose to single cover Robinson all game and he put on a clinic.  Now, this is hyperbole of the biggest fashion so don't jump down my throat, but watching him I actually was reminded of Hakeem Olajuwon.  I know, I know, but I was.  I can't help it.  Guy's legit.

4.  Miami Hurricanes. I've said it before and I'll say it again, I'm always impressed with teams on the Bubble who go out and get that big home win that they need (mainly because I don't know if I've ever seen it from my favorite team), and Miami did just that this weekend, taking down the #16 Seminoles 78-62 to jump up and likely grab themselves and NCAA bid.  Most impressive is that they did it without starting center and double-double guy Reggie Johnson, who was ruled ineligible by the NCAA due to some minor infractions that will hopefully be resolved quickly.  Not to mention that even without him they managed to put up 78 points on the usually defensively studly Seminoles, the first time a team has scored that much on them since January 7th.  Pretty sure Miami sucks and won't win a game in the tourney, but at least they're most likely going to make it.

5.  South Florida Bulls.  Speaking of college teams from the state of Florida who picked up huge wins with bubble ramifications over the weekend, USF knocked off fellow bubble team Cincinnati on Sunday and can pretty officially no longer be ignored.  The game wasn't pretty with the Bulls winning 46-45, both teams having just one player score in double figures, and the two teams combined to shoot 6-30 from 3-point land, but USF did what they needed to do and got a big victory.  South Florida is now 11-5 in the Big East, has bumped their RPI up to 45 (right behind K-State), and now has a 4-1 record against teams between 40-100 in the RPI.  Of course, they are also 0-7 vs. the RPI top 40 and have three losses against sub-100 teams, but closing out the season at 11-4 is pretty solid.  You'd have to think if they can finish out 1-1 (@Louisville, vs. WVU) and then win their Big East Tourny opener they'd be in - a far cry from the team that started the year 7-7 and lost to Penn State (among other craptastic squads).


WHO SUCKED


1.  Seton Hall Pirates.  Are you shitting me Seton Hall?  So they beat Georgetown for one of the most meaningful bubble wins this year and it's all like oh hell yes sweet what a great win awesome to see a team actually step up when they have to.  And how do they follow it up?  By losing at home to freaking Rutgers.  Rutgers of the four conference wins and #149 RPI.  Seriously, I mean if this doesn't completely wipe out all the good they did by beating the Hoyas it's damn close.  I swear to god this is exactly what I expect from the Gophers or Northwestern, not a real team from the Big East.  Shaheen Holloway is probably rolling over in his sports grave.

2.  West Virginia Mountaineers.  Even though there are plenty of teams doing everything they can to avoid getting invited to the NCAA Tournament, I don't know if anybody is doing a better job of tanking than West Virginia.  On January 21 they were 15-5 and 5-2 in the Big East after beating Cincinnati.  Since then they've gone 2-7 (with one of the wins taking overtime to beat Providence).  This week may have been the worst, first going to Notre Dame and getting beat by 30, then taking on a Marquette squad that suspended three starters for the first half, building an 11-point half-time lead, and then blowing it and losing by one.  A team that looked like an easy lock for the NCAA Tournament a month ago is now completely floundering, and with just games vs. DePaul and @ South Florida left a 2-0 finish is now an absolute must, and they might need a win or two in the Big East Tournament to get in.  Seriously, if Huggins is going to find a way to cheat he might as well get started pretty quick.

3.  Florida Gators.   Jeez this seems like a very Florida-y week in review, which I guess is kind of appropriate since I'm going to Florida for a family vacation starting next Tuesday and that's kind of on my mind, but it's been a very Florda-centric week for being awesome and sucking so here we are.  Anyway, the Gators continue to show how vulnerable they are because of their reliance on the perimeter jumper, and Georgia took advantage taking them down 76-62 with the Gators shooting just 5-23 from three.  39% of Florida's points come from three-pointers, the 3rd most in the country, and 44.6% of their shot attempts come from behind the arc (6th in the nation).  Even though they do shoot them well (39.4%, 16th in the country) relying on something that can disappear in any given game, combined with a pretty bad defense (94th in Defensive efficiency) is a recipe for any early March exit. 

4.   Ohio State Buckeyes.  Obviously there are varying degrees of sucking because I would kill your mother if it meant the Gophers would even approach Ohio State's success, but for a team that was/is supposed to be a national title contender there are some major concerns right now, with Ohio State 2-3 in their last five games including two home losses (to Michigan State and Wisconsin, but still).  The Buckeyes were supposed to cruise to a Big 10 title and even with Michigan State having a tremendous year they should still be the class of the conference, but all of a sudden they're showing a whole bunch of chinks in their armor (wait, are we allowed to say that?)  Buford has just been plain off most of the year, Craft hasn't turned into anything on the offensive end, and suddenly Sullinger is disappearing in games (17 total points in the last two, plus 1-7 from the free throw line when he's a 74% shooter this season).  Still plenty of talent here and they're probably still one of the 10 best teams in the country, but suddenly an early round loss in the tournament doesn't seem like the impossibility it once did.


5.  Cal Golden Bears.  I don't know why I obsess about the Pac-10's mediocrity so much, but it's just mind boggling that a conference with schools like UCLA, USC, Washington, Cal, etc. can be so bad at basketball for so long.  Every year there's a point where it looks like the Pac-12 might only get one bid, and although I don't think it's actually happened yet it's amazing how close it gets every year.  And once again this season just when it looks like both Cal and Washington are safe, Cal goes out and gets destroyed by Colorado 70-57.  Both Washington and Cal will probably still get in and everything, but jeez man, it's just amazing how much they suck.  Also, in a semi-related note, with all the conference realignment going on I think what makes the most sense is for the Gophers to move into the Pac-12.  It's common sense, really.


With conference tournaments starting up this week I need to get to work on the small conference tournament previews, so you'll have to do without your pithy outro this week.  You know, the outro nobody reads because they've usually bailed on my post halfway through or so because it's too long and/or boring?  Yeah, that.

* = I made this up because I was too drunk tired to actually look it up

Week in Review - 11/7/2011

Missouri to the SEC?  West Virginia to the Big 12?  I think I'm officially old or maybe just completely sick of all the moving because what was once kind of exciting and neato is now annoying and I just want it to go away, not unlike my kids.  Whatever.  I am just confused as to why the hell the SEC would want Missouri.  Makes little sense to me.  I get the WVU and Big 12 merger - the B12 needs to grab whoever they can (academics be damned, apparently) and WVU is a good program stuck in a suddenly dying conference after the Cuse and Pitt defections and needs to find more stable ground.  Makes sense for everyone.  But Missouri to the SEC?  I'm not even sure I get it for Missouri.  You're going to sell midwest kids by telling them they their parents can come see them play if they fly all the way to the SE USA?  I don't know.  But I know I don't know and I'm dumb about this stuff so whatever let's move on.  


WHO WAS AWESOME:

1.  MarQueis Gray.  By some kind of weird accident I ended up watching most of the Gopher football game, and I have to say Gray impressed the crap out of me and looked like a whole new player (NOTE:  we're throwing out the 4th quarter which was mostly just bad decisions and passes that made it 85% of the way to their target all wrapped up with a final pass that was 25 yards from any Gopher).  I saw him look to a second read instead of just tucking and running, and I even saw him go to a third read at one point.  And some of those throws my god who was that?  His third TD to McKnight (the one in the 3rd quarter) was an absolutely beautiful throw, and he had one on the final drive where the threaded the needle quite nicely as well.  I don't know, I've been convinced Gray had no real future as a QB, but suddenly I'm not so sure.  Of course I don't mean a real QB here, obviously, I mean a college QB.  Also I think you're racist.

2.  Michigan Wolverines.  Not the football team (although we'll get there), but the basketball team, specifically recruiting-wise, because they just secured a commitment from 2012 power forward Mitch McGary, who is basically worshiped by anybody and everybody who follows high school hoops (side bar:  can you believe worshiped only has one 'p'?  Weird.).  McGary is listed as either a power forward or a center depending on who you ask, but, since John Beilein was after him you know damn well he has perimeter skills, but unlike a guy like Pittsnoggle or those white nerds on Michigan right now, McGary has the inside game to go with it.  Really, I mean the guy is #2 overall in the class according to both ESPN and Scout and is #3 according to Rivals - this is a really really huge deal for the Wolverines and actually the Big 10 overall.  I mean, Michigan's top competition for McGary was Duke, and the other competition was Kentucky, Florida, and North Carolina.  Just a ridiculous get.  Take notes, Tubby.  Beilein has Michigan on their way (also has commits from the #34 and #79 recruits in that same class) and they're positioned to be a national contender soon.  Started in the same year as Tubby.  Just sayin'


3.  Trent Richardson.  Ok so this one might seem kind of weird because his stat line isn't all that good and he pretty much did nothing in the second half vs. LSU, but I thought this guy was kind of slow and probably going to be a flop in the NFL.  After watching the game saturday night I am fully revising that prediction to future stud.  Yeah, he's big and strong, which probably meant he'd be at least a decent NFL rusher, but he caught a couple of passes in the flat against LSU where he made a whole mess of people miss him with a little juke here and a little juke there - and LSU is an excellent defensive team.  It wasn't pretty or shifty like Barry Sanders or LeSean McCoy, but it was certainly quick enough to be effective.  Combine that with his power and he's going to be a major contributor at some point for some NFL team.  I don't know, maybe like a faster Brandon Jacobs who can catch.  Something like that but better.

4.  DeMarco Murray.  I like that Murray comes right after Richardson because I can never remember who played/plays for Alabama and who played/plays for Oklahoma.  But anyway I think it's pretty clear at this point that Murray is the goods.  After his debut as a starter, where he ran for 253 yards, you could probably talk yourself into thinking that was some kind of fluke.  Then last week he rushed for 74 yards, but did it on only 8 carries because of how the game was going.  This week he once again impressed, going for 139 rushing and another 47 receiving and just generally looking like a stud.  He's fast (enough), strong (enough), and very shifty, not to mention being a great receiver - at least according to his scouting report coming out of college.  I haven't been this impressed with a young back since LeSean McCoy.  Of course, I now have McCoy, Murray, and Ray Rice on my keeper team and we only start two RBs, so I should probably figure out something to do with all that.

5.  Green Bay Packers.  God damn it.  These fuckers are going to go undefeated, aren't they?  And I'm going to have to sit here and choke on it.  After beating San Diego, which should have been a completely losable game, they are now 8-0.  Looking at the schedule there are three games they can't possibly lose (vs. Oakland, vs. Minnesota, vs. Chicago) and another one that is essentially unlosable but because it's on the road I can't quite call it that (@ Kansas City).  So that's a guaranteed 12 wins.  Two of the other four games they'll be a pretty good sized favorite, maybe around a TD or so (vs. Detroit, vs. Tampa), and one other (@ New York Giants) they'll be probably around a 3 point favorite.  The only game where they might be an underdog is @ Detroit on Thanksgiving, and god help us all if Stafford can't pull that one out because I'm pretty sure I can't survive in a world where the Packers go undefeated and win another Super Bowl.  Seriously my hatred for Green Bay makes my hatred for the Badgers look like my hatred for chicken wings which is weird because I don't care about the NFL all that much.  I think if the Packers were a college I'd probably go all Charles Whitman on it. 


WHO SUCKED

1.  Alabama Kickers.  What the mother hell was that?  Four missed field goals in the biggest game of the year and probably your career?  Just brutal.  Although I guess asking college kickers to make field goals of 40-50 yards is pretty ridiculous, so it's not like the Tide was exactly putting their dudes in positions to succeed.  I don't know, the whole thing was just ugly and ridiculous and kind of funny.  I was actually looking forward to them trotting out the kicker each time they went for a field goal.  And seriously, bringing that dude out for a 52 yarder in OT when he'd already missed two on the night?  Nobody, and I mean nobody, thought that one was going to go through.  Kickers, lol.  Probably should just amend the rule book to get rid of field goals in college, Chip Lohmiller be damned.

2.  Denard Robinson.  And this is why, no matter how successful your run first QB is in college (and Robinson has already been benched this year so there's that) you can never feel comfortable with a dude who can't really throw.  Michigan, down by 8, ball on the 3, first down, 30 seconds or something left.  First play - some kind of mini-up-and-out on the outside - receiver marginally open - Robinson throws it completely out of bounds.  Second down - floater in the middle of nowhere, throw without really even looking at the defense - still almost caught but receiver was out-of-bounds.  Much like the pizza at Donatelli's.  Third down - little scramble play - throw comes up short - actually probably should have been caught.  But I've typed too much to turn back.  Fourth Down - hike and throw timing play with no options which is actually really stupid because if you have a dude like Denard you want there to be a lot of options and this play has zero.  This should probably be ripping on whoever the Michigan coach is.  But 1.  I don't know who that is and 2. I'm drunk on Saturday night whilst typing this and I don't feel like doing whatever. 

3.  Philip Rivers.  He always puts up monster numbers, like his 385 yards and 4 TDs against Green Bay on Sunday, but he's just a train wreck of inconsistency, as his 3 picks with two brought back for Packer touchdowns attests too.  He's not like Romo, who will always choke in a big game, but he's just all over the place and will always make just as many terrible throws/decisions as he does good ones. Seriously, he throws interceptions in the playoffs/big games like that's his actual job, he just masks it by also throwing for a couple TDs and 350+ yards so nobody really notices.  Seriously, if you had to pick a "good" QB to start a game that he had to win or you would die Rivers would be the second worst guy you could pick, behind Romo of course.  Because he's a big time choker.  Like that dude from Kung Fu or Albert DeSalvo (supposedly). 

I have nothing to add.  I just like this picture.

4.  West Virginia.  The Mountaineers lost their exhibition game versus d-2 Northern Kentucky on Saturday, which doesn't necessarily mean disaster for the season but it's kind of hard to think of this as a good sign.  No, they weren't the only team to lose to a D-2 team this week - Butler lost to Northern State and Arizona lost to Seattle Pacific - but everyone else had mitigating circumstances that could at least explain it.  Butler lost their top 2 players from last year and have to deal with that while Arizona is trying to break in a freshman point guard and lost their do everything player, but WVU shouldn't have those issues.  I mean yeah, they lost last year's leading scorer in Casey Mitchell, but with do everything Kevin Jones and point guard Truck Bryant back there's no reason for them to lose this game.  Most troubling is they allowed Northern Kentucky to shoot 52% from the floor for the game.  I don't know if this is a fluke or a terrible sign and harbinger of doom, but it ain't good.

5.  Jim Thome.  Tell me this isn't completely bizarre.  I mean the contract makes total sense - 1 year for $1.25 million with AB incentives that can push it to $1.5.  Perfect for everybdoy.  And I even get how Thome likes Philly from when he played there before and Philly likes Thome because if you don't like Thome you're probably evil in your black heart.  Again, makes sense.  But let's think about this, and realize that Philadelphia is in the national league and unless something changed they don't have a designated hitter in that league.  Thome proved with the Twins that he can't field - at all- which is why Mike Cuddyer, Luke Hughes, Trevor Plouffe, Joe Mauer, Matt Tolbert, Brendan Harris, and Jose Morales have all played 1st in the last two years.  So he's signing on to the Phils to get a max of 162 plate appearances next year.  I mean sure, he'll probably get all 162 since it's the NL, but I can't see any way he gets more than that unless there's a rule change allowing double pinch-hits.   I mean maybe that's what Thome is looking for now, it's a pretty sweet life making seven figures to eat some seeds or chew some Redman before taking a couple hacks late in the game, but I always got the impression he wanted to start once in a while.  Also this probably doesn't belong in the "who sucks" thing but I didn't really want to make another post about it so fuck it. 



Three Final Things:

1 .  The greatest sport in the world starts tonight with college hoops kicking off with the Coaches vs. Cancer Classic.  Three games tonight (Valpo @ Arizona, William & Mary @ St. Johns, and Eastern Kentucky @ Mississippi State) and then three more Wednesday (Duquesne @ Arizona, Liberty @ Texas A&M, and Lehigh @ St. John's) get us all kicked off leading to the big day on Friday when there are 126 games.  I'm stoked, and if you're looking for a wager tonight the only game I have a feel for is Miss State -17 vs. EKU, so just do it.  Also, here is my fantasy college basketball roster:

G - Dee Bost, Miss State
G - Allen Crabbe, Cal
G - Abdul Gaddy, Washington
G - Andre Young, Clemson
G - Glen Rice, Georgia Tech
G - Faisal Aden, Wash State
G - Lorenzo Brown, NC State
G - BJ Young, Arkansas
G - Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Georgia
G/F - Drew Crawford, Northwestern
F - Trevor Mbakwe, Minnesota
F - Drew Gordon, New Mexico
F - Chris Johnson, Dayton
F - Brandon Davies, BYU
F - Malik Cooke, South Carolina
F - Dwight Powell, Stanford
C - Josh Smith, UCLA
C - Andrew Smith, Butler
C - Meyers Leonard, Illinois
C - Krys Faber, DePaul

I smell championship.

2.  Since I'm feeling generous here is a kick-ass soup recipe, which you can make as either beef or chicken:

1 lb. chicken breast or stew meat cut into cubes (depending on if you want chicken or beef soup, obvs)
2 potatoes, cubed
2 small carrots, diced
1/2 c. chopped onion
1/2 c. chopped celery
1 1/2 c. frozen corn kernels
2 T horseradish mustard (dijon works too)
1/4 t. black pepper
1/4 t. cayenne pepper
1/2 t. garlic powder
1/2 t. salt
2 1/2 c. vegetable juice like v-8
1 1/2 c. chicken broth (or beef if making beef soup)

Combine and cook in a crockpot for 7-9 hours.  Hell yes.

3.  I got distracted and I can't remember what #3 was now.  Ok then bye.

NCAA Basketball Preview - Big East

Ok, conference realignment has officially become out-of-control.  The Big East already has 16 teams, but now because they're losing Syracuse (sad) and Pitt (who cares) and have now seen TCU pull out of joining to become a Big 12 team instead they overreact in the opposite direction and add Houston, Southern Methodist, Central Florida, Air Force, and Boise State.  Except Air Force and Boise State will only be joining for football.  This move does absolutely nothing for basketball except to further weaken a Big East already weakened by the defections, unless you think the recent strong recruiting seen by Houston is sustainable - and I don't.

At first I thought all this conference realignment stuff was kind of cool, but at this point it's just gotten completely out of hand.  I don't even know who went where or who didn't or what's merging.  Like that Conference USA/Mountain West merger - does that effect hoops in any way?  I don't know.  It's too confusing.  I think it's time to just to to one big conference.  Easier that way.

1.  UCONN HUSKIES.  How are they #1 in a tough conference despite losing Kemba Walker?  Because everybody else is back, including Jeremy Lamb (who started to look like a star at the end of last year) and Alex Oriakhi (who is always solid defensively and now his offense is coming along), as well as a group of sophomores (of which Lamb is a part) who were ranked as the #20 recruiting class in the country last season by ESPN.  Oh, and they have one of the best classes in the country coming in with PG Ryan Boatright (#42 rivals), SF DeAndre Daniels (#10), and C Andre Drummond (#2).  Drummond is ridiculous and he's probably going to make people cry, and will likely be the #1 overall pick in next year's NBA Draft if it happens.  Seriously, UCONN is a big-time threat to win back-to-back titles.  Doubtful, yes, but a better chance than most.

2. SYRACUSE ORANGE.  God Boeheim is just incredible - great class after great class after great class.  He's followed up last year's top five class with a top 10 class this year, adding SG Michael Carter-Williams (Rivals #29 overall) and C Rakeem Christmas (#27) to last year's group that included C Fab Melo (#16), SF C.J. Fair (#94), and SG Dion Waiters (#29).  Scoop Jardine and Brandon Triche will be back on the perimeter to run things and awkwardly heave the ball at the rim, and scoring machine Kris Joseph is back for more.  The only real question is if Christmas (freshman) or Melo (super-subpar first year) can fill in for Rick "Automatic Double-Double" Jackson.  If they can, this is a national title contender.  If not, they'll be lucky to make it out of the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament.

3.  LOUISVILLE CARDINALS.  I have a feeling about this Louisville team, and it's not necessarily a good one.  I do think they'll be good and a legit Final Four contender, but I also think they're very ripe for some ugly nights.  It will basically all come down to Peyton Siva and how well he can control the offense, because with Preston Knowles gone he's now in charge of a whole bunch of talent, but a whole bunch of talent that's a little bit crazy.  The Cards have everything you'd need - excellent point guard, dead-eye shooting, perimeter and interior defense, and three incoming swingmen who all rank on in Rivals Top 70 (and a center as well), so really it's going to come down to how well they mesh - and that is going to depend on Siva.

4.  PITT PANTHERS.  I think at some point Pitt turned itself into kind of a minor dynasty (conference only).  They somehow shed the legacy of crappy overrated point guards like Brandin Knight, Carl Krauer, and LeVance Fields and are now actually acquiring good, quality players like Ashton Gibbs who is probably the best player in the conference.  They do lose quite a bit with three starters (including the giant version of kid from Kid N Play which makes me sad), and Gibbs biggest help now is a guy who is already hurt and missing most/all the preseason practice time, a point guard who makes LeVance Fields look like Craig Hodges, and a former big time recruit whose failed to average more than 5 points per game in his two seasons at Pitt.  But you watch, Gibbs will find a way, and Pitt will break into the top 10 at some point this year.  Big fan of this kid.

5.  VILLANOVA WILDCATS.  Villanova is turning into Chucker University, and this year is shaping up to be no exception as Maalik Wayns looks to become the next in the recent line of all-time great chuckers following Scottie Reynolds, the two Coreys, Allen Ray, and Randy Foye.  The real great news is that Wayns looks like he has a chance to be the greatest of them all.  His shooting percentage of 40% last year and 3-point percentage of just 27% were some of the worst numbers any of these chuckers put up at any point in their careers, but that didn't stop Wayns from taking the third most shots (and 3-pointers) on the team behind the two Coreys.  Really, the stars could be aligning for a spectacular two final years of his career.  I'm so excited.

6.  CINCINNATI BEARCATS.  Why do I have some trouble believing in Cincy?  It could be because there best player is named Yancy, but really there's a lot to like about the Bearcats this year.  Besides the aforementioned Yancy Gates, their leading scorer and rebounder last year, they also return essentially every player from last year's team that knocked off a very good Missouri team in the NCAA Tournament last year, and also add Shaquille Thomas and Jermaine Sanders, two athletic wings who will fit well in Mick Cronin's hyper-defensive system.  The biggest issue here will be Cashmere Wright, who is back to play the point for a third year.  Except he can't shoot, turns the ball over too much, and isn't a great distributor.  So I guess they got that goin' for 'em.

7.  MARQUETTE EAGLES.  Jimmy Butler was a do-everything type player and he's gone, but luckily for Marquette Darius Johnson-Odom is back and he's a do-everything type as well who was pretty much just as good as Butler last year and has a chance to be an absolute super star this year without having to share touches with Butler.  Jae Crowder lived up to his billing as one of the better JuCo players last season, looking unstoppable on the block at times despite a shaky shooting percentage and could be a big-time player this year.  The biggest key for Marquette will be the backcourt with Vander Blue coming off a disappointing freshman year where he had more turnovers than assists and shot at a worse percentage than Maalik Wayns.  Junior Cadougan is serviceable but not a star, so they really need Blue to live up to his pre-college hype.

8.  WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS.  Joel Mazzulla, captain bricklayer himself, is gone along with their best scorer in Casey Mitchell and their best defender, or at least one of, in John Flowers.  Even so, Huggy Bear will have these guys in contention for an NCAA bid because they're always going to play tough defense and Kevin Jones is back and ripe for a Big East player of the year type season.  The biggest key will be Truck Bryant, who will have to pretty much main the point alone with Maz gone.  Assuming he can avoid running into cars this season, WVU should be ok.

9.  NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH.  Obviously most of these previews are me combining my limited knowledge on these teams with what I can read, both online and in print, and trying to come up with some decent conclusions.  So basically a lot of guessing.  One thing I'm not guessing about, however, and I'll make it a guarantee, is that you're going to be sick of hearing about Tim Abromaitis by the end of this season.  Seriously, between him and Scott Martin the Irish are going to once again be the great white hope, except now the third wheel in little Hansbrough is gone and I have this crazy feeling Abromaitis is going to have a Harangody like season, only less behemoth-y.  Put on your gritty, hustly, heady, smart player shoes because it's going to be a rough year if you watch any of there games.  And god help you if they actually end up good.  God.  Help.  You.

10.  GEORGETOWN HOYAS.  For the last several years the Hoyas have been a big-time March threat - at least on paper - and it's been on the strength of their guard play.  Unfortunately for them, they're in the habit of getting bounced to early and two of their three stud guards are now gone.  The one remaining, Jason Clark, was more of the third wheel type, and will now have to become the #1 option, and basically the difference for the Hoyas between a good or bad season, because between him and Hollis Thompson - who is the only offensive big man of consequence who is returning, they're going to have to be most of the offense for this team.  There are three highly regarded freshmen big men coming in, but other than throwing a right hook at some chinaman who knows if they'll be worth a damn. 

11.  RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS.  Ever since Quincy Douby left Rutgers hasn't been able to build any momentum.  Even when they snag a great recruiting class with two Top 50 players like they did in 2008 things fall apart and both players ended up transferring before the end of their careers.  That being said, a new coach and another excellent class (ranked #24 nationally and 6th in the conference by Rivals) has hope welling up once again in Jersey.  If they ever get good the RAC gives them a nice home court advantage, so remember that when you're gambling.

12.  SOUTH FLORIDA BULLS.  You remember Anthony Crater?  The point guard who came aboard at Ohio State in the same class that netted the Buckeyes B.J. Mullens and William Buford, then quit 2 months into the season after shooting 3-15 from the floor in 10 games because he didn't get to start (keep in mind OSU's guards were Evan Turner, Buford, David Lighty, Jon Diebler, and Jeremie Simmons)?  He's played at USF the last two seasons and averaged less than 4 points per game both years despite playing over 25 minutes per game, and was kicked off the team in May for "violating team rules."  I don't know why, but that story makes me laugh.  Probably because he seemed like such a douche.

13.  SETON HALL PIRATES.  I don't know why I'm so drawn to Seton Hall.  Maybe it's because I fell in love with Shaheen Holloway, or maybe it's because a dude I played against (and got crushed by) in high school ended up going there (Darius Lane), but I also half-root for the Pirates and actually have a Seton Hall hat somewhere.  Unfortunately this year is going to be a rough one for the Pirates with Jeremy Hazell, the Big East's third leading scorer last year, and Jeff Robinson, the team's second leading scorer, both gone along with a whole bunch of supporting bits.  Herb Pope is still a freaking stud with bullets in his body and Jordan Theodore can score, but there just isn't much here unless Pope goes insane.  More than usual, I mean.

14.  ST. JOHNS RED STORM.   They would be higher, seeing as how Lavin came in and immediately grabbed a top 3 class to come play in NYC, but then things unraveled and three of the newcomers were ruled ineligible, and they just happened to be the #23, #51, and #68 recruits in the country.  There's still good talent coming in, but St. John's is trying to replace essentially everybody from last year and losing those three hurts, especially because the #51 guy - Jakarr Sampson - has already transferred out (maybe the other's have too but I'm not looking it up because I've already spent too much time on this one).  Lavin will turn things around in a hurry, maybe just in slightly less of a hurry than it looked.  I wonder if he's gone crooked yet or if he's waiting another year.

15.  PROVIDENCE FRIARS.  Marshon Brooks was really, really good at scoring.  He was also the rare player who was kind of a chucker, but was an efficient chucker.  I'm not really sure why I'm talking about him because he's now in the NBA if there was an NBA, but it's probably because I don't know anything else about Providence.  They do have two other double-digit scorers back from last year.  Shrug.

16.  DEPAUL BLUE DEMONS.  Talk about horrible.  I read somewhere that DePaul has gone 2-52 in Big East play over the last three seasons.  I knew they were bad, but assumed that was a misprint and looked it up myself.  Sure enough, they're 2-52.  And it's not fixing to change.  Despite being in the heart of Chicago, a nice high school hoops town, they can't get anybody to attend DePaul because of Dumpster Arena.  I just don't know how they're going to get out of this mess.  I guess they have a little momentum, what with Cleveland Melvin winning Big East Rookie of the Year last year and stealing DeJuan Marrero away from the Gophers recently, but yuck.  You'd think one of Illinois, Northwestern, DePaul, or UIC would have to be good, but here we are.

Minnesota Gophers Basketball Team Heads to Puerto Rico: A Primer

I'll assume you already know all about your Minnesota Gophers basketball squad, but since they head to Puerto Rico for the 2010 version of the Tip-Off and matchups will be coming too fast and furious to do a preview of each game, here's a primer on all the possible teams the Gophers could face.

We'll start with Thursday's opponent, the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers.  Names like Orlando "Taco Hawk" Mendez-Valdez, Courtney Lee, Tyrone Brazelton, and A.J. Slaughter might not exactly be known in households across America, but hoop heads should recognize them and know that the Hilltoppers are a perennial contender in the Sun Belt and the program has been built into a mid-major power - 20 wins in 9 of the last 10 seasons and a sweet 16 appearance.

This year is no exception, and the team is led by three senior wings in Sergio Kerusch, Steffphon Pettigrew, and Oklahoma transfer Juan Patillo.  Those three are all averaging at least 18 points per game through the Hilltopper's first two games and are scoring over half the team's points, while Patillo has been a beast on the boards, grabbing twelve in each game.  WKU is also hitting over 43% of their threes this year, so it's not just going to be an outside game.    

Make no mistake, the Gophers can't look past this game to a potential second-round matchup against North Carolina, and they have to contain that trio.  If one of them gets off like Clarence Jackson did in the Siena game they're in trouble, and if two of them do it's going to be lights out.  Minnesota took care of business against both Wofford and the Saints - both preseason contenders in their mid-major conferences - so they should be able to do it here, but this is going to be a tough matchup.

If they do manage to get through it, it should set up a second-round dogfight against the Tar Heels of North Carolina, who famously underachieved last year, although did start to put it together in the end and were NIT runner-ups.  Point guard play was a big weakness for UNC last year, and once again this year their point guards look a bit shaky.  Returning starter Larry Drew and freshman Kendall Marshall combined for just four assists against five turnovers in a mere 14 point win over Lipscomb in UNC's only game thus far, and that should be a weakness to exploit for the Gophers.  John Henson and Tyler Zeller played well and give the Heels good size to go against the Gophers, but this is another area where Minnesota should have the advantage with Sampson, Mbakwe, and Iverson.

The X-factor will be freshman and pre-season All-American Harrison Barnes, who is essentially being anointed as the greatest player of all-time.  Assuming he and Rodney Williams are matched up on each other it's going to be time for Rodney to grow up in a hurry and become the defensive stopper he has the potential to be, or his ass will be shredded faster than if he put it into E. Honda's Slap Chop.

The Heels have a lofty ranking at 8th in the country, but I'm telling you right now it's not deserved - the Gophers are the better team.

If something weird happens the Gophers other potential second-round game would be against the Hofstra Pride.  Not a bad team by any stretch, but stuck in the middle of a pretty good Colonial Conference once again this season.  They do have a pretty dynamic player in 6-3 senior guard Charles Jenkins who put up 26 points, 8 rebounds, 8 assists, 4 steals, and 2 blocks in their opening game win over Farmingdale State (of course, the team scored 102, so how much can you really take from that game?)  Still, he 21-5-4-2 last year, so he can take over a game, but with Al Nolen on the Gophers side if they do face Hofstra they shouldn't have much trouble.

They could end up facing any of the other four teams depending on how everything shakes out, but assuming they win their first and everything holds according to plan they would likely face either the West Virginia Mountaineers or Vanderbilt Commodores, whether it's in the Championship or the Third Place Game - hopefully WVU in the championship.

The Mountaineers lost quite a bit from last year's Final Four team but are still expected to be an NCAA Tournament team based on the talent that is back, and are the team I would make the favorite to win this thing.  Not only do they have a potential superstar in Kevin Jones, who was second on the team in scoring and rebounding last year while leading them in FG and 3-pt shooting percentage - and stands 6-8, but they bring back two point guards and enough size to tangle with the Gophers, should they meet.  The guards, Truck Bryant and Joe Mazzulla, will help negate the Gophers tough perimeter defense, while Jones and the other bigs could handle Ralph and the boys in the paint.  This would be an absolutely outstanding game.  Let's hope it happens.

If not the Mountaineers, the most likely third opponent for the Gophers would be Vandy, a tournament team last year who needs to figure out how to replace their starting point guard and center (who were the top 2 scorers) from last year.  It's only one game in, but they look like they're on the right track.  New point guard Brad Tinlsey opened the year with a triple-double (albeit against Presbyterian), while new center Festus Ezeli (who the Gophers were recruiting for a while) chipped in with 14 pts and 6 rebounds.  And, lest you think they have no talent returning, their two best players are their wings:  6-7 do everything Jeffrey Taylor and 6-4 lights out shooter John Jenkins, both of whom were named to the All-SEC Freshman team last year.  Taylor is a possible SEC player of the year, while Jenkins is on basically every list of "best shooter in the NCAA" I've seen.  This one wouldn't be easy either.

What would be easy, and disappointing, is if the Gophers lose their first game, end up in the loser's bracket, and play either the Nebraska Cornhuskers or Davidson Wildcats in the consolation game (or worse).  No offense to either school, but this would mean something has gone horribly, horribly wrong and Minnesota took a big NCAA resume building opportunity and turned it into a loss to WKU and two meaningless wins, missing out on a couple of shots at big-time teams who will end up with very nice RPIs.  Nebraska is going to finish at the bottom of the Big 12 and Davidson hasn't been able to recapture the magic of two years ago and is no longer a dangerous mid-major team, so neither will do anything to build up a resume or give a good idea of how good the Gophers are/can be.

So is it fair to say this game against Western Kentucky is the most important non-conference game of the year?  I'd say yes, without question.  A win over the Hilltoppers all but guarantees two cracks and getting a big marquee win, and even two losses will at least help the RPI a bit.  A loss all but guarantees two games against teams that don't help if you win, but are killers if you lose.  So, basically, don't freaking lose this game.

College Basketball Preview: The Big East

 1.  Villanova Wildcats.  I'm very glad Scottie Reynolds, one of my top five most hated college players of all-time, is gone, because I can go back to not hating Villanova right as they look to finally be balanced enough to be a real national title contender - and I mean a real threat, not a media-driven threat that was obviously going to flame out early - thanks again to Reynolds.  Perimeter driven for years, this year Jay Wright and the Wildcats will have a balanced attack. Antonio Pena has made a huge leap from where he was as a freshman to become an excellent inside scoring threat and two sophomores (Mouphtaou Yarou and Isaiah Armwood) were highly regarding coming in last year and had very nice freshman years - and of course Nova is loaded with guards as they always are.  So I guess is what I'm saying is we actually have to worry about Villanova and I don't like it one bit. 

2.  Syracuse Orange.  The Orange lose a lot - again, but Jim Boeheim just reloads - again.  Losing Andy Rautins, Arinze Onuaku, and Wes Johnson would cripple most teams and send them into rebuilding mode, but not the Cuse.  Fab Melo (#2 center) is a better Onuaku, and SF C.J. Fair (#94 overall) and SG Dion Waiters (#29 overall) may not be the equal of Johnson and Rautins, but they'll ease their loss.  Biggest keys to Orange success will be how Kris Joseph develops, and he is looking like he could end up being the next Syracuse star, and finding a shooter to replace Rautins and Johnson, who made 61% of the team's three balls between them at a combined 41% clip.  This is where Mookie Jones (45% last year) can fit in.  Plus, you (and everyone) need a little more Mookie in your life.  You know it's true.

3.  Pittsburgh Panthers.  I've never seen a Pitt team I liked, and I'm not going to start now, but it's impossible to deny that they look pretty loaded this year.  The real question is if Ashton Gibbs is a bonifide star or just another in a long line of Pitt point guards who got a disproportionate amount of praise for their skill  level and couldn't shoot.  Look it up, but from Brandin Knight to Carl Krauser to Levance Fields, Pitt always has point guards who couldn't hit a jump shot if they were in an empty gym, but were universally loved and praised by the media.  I'm afraid Gibbs, who shot under 40% from the field last year, is yet another one and is going to cause my anti-Pitt rage to fire itself back up again, despite all the anti-rage medication I'm on.

4.  Georgetown Hoyas.  Georgetown is going to look a little weird this year because they're going to be missing the most Georgetowny thing - a good, big center.  From Ewing, Mourning, and Mutumbo to Hibbert and Monroe, they always seem to have a good center (not counting all those years between Mutumbo and Hibbert), but not this year.  What they do have, however, is a trio of very good guards in Chris Wright (scored 20 in 3 of team's last 4 games), Austin Freeman (leading scorer last year at 16.5 per game), and Jason Clark (42% three-point shooter).  It seems like the Hoyas have disappointed every year since their Final Four year, so maybe this is another breakthrough coming since they say guard play is the key in March.  And, in case you're really concerned, they did sign 6-10 Moses Abraham, the #11 center in the country for 2010, and he could eventually develop into a top flight center in a year or two.  Long live tradition.

5.  West Virginia Mountaineers.  Devin Ebanks and Da'Sean Butler are massive losses, particularly Butler who wasn't only their best player but also a stone cold end of game killer, but there's still enough here to make the Mountaineers an NCAA Tournament team.  Kevin Jones was basically Butler's understudy all year and is a very similar player who I expect to take a big leap forward and help lead this team, and they get both of their point guards back in Joel Mazzulla (who can't shoot) and Truck Bryant (who seems to alternate between being injured and being in trouble).  There are a lot of questions on the interior and a lot of pressure will be on John Flowers and Deniz Kilicli (and Kevin Noreen, who is from Minneapolis and the Gophers had zero interest in so that will be interesting to see how that works out).  Also Noah Cottrill (freshman PG) looks just like the Professor and as such I love him.


6.  St. Johns Red Storm.  Might be a little high, but optimism reigns in NYC for a once proud program who has fallen into irrelevance, and I'm buying into it.  New coach Steve Lavin finally left the booth for this job, and he's hit the ground running already landing a couple of big time recruits for 2011.  But don't think the only optimism is for the future, this year's squad returns nearly everybody from last year's NIT team, and they have a good mix of inside and outside scoring.  I'm not saying we're heading back to the glory days of Felipe Lopez and Zendon Hamilton or anything, but don't be surprised if they surprise some people (but not you because I just told you they'd be good.)

7.  Connecticut Huskies.  I've got a weird feeling about UCONN, and I am starting to think their run as a top flight college hoops program might be coming to a close.  Now, they're still good now and should make the NCAA Tournament this year (although they should have been one of the best team's in the country last year and that didn't exactly work out) and they continue to get good recruiting classes, but there's a lot going on here.  Calhoun's health issues, the new NCAA infractions (that have led to two assistant coaches getting canend), Ater Majok leaving...I don't know, it just feels like bad news coming, whether the NCAA hammers the program or not.  In any case, they'll be good this year and Kemba Walker is a stud.  At least until he gets arrested.

8.  Notre Dame Fighting Irish.  Better without Harangody?  Yep, and if you recall, they made their late run at an NCAA bid when he was on the shelf last year, winning their last four regular season games, including wins over 2 ranked teams and 2 bubble teams, then winning two in the Big East tournament to grab an NCAA berth.  This year white guy central and top two players Ben Hansbrough and Tim Abromaitis will add a third top white guy in Purdue transfer Scott Martin.  You may remember him as the fourth member of Purdue's E'Twaun Moore/JaJuan Johnson/Robbie Hummel class who was actually ranked similarly to Hummel by Rivals.  He had a solid freshman year, then transferred (and had to sit out), and then blew out his knee before last season began, so this will actually be his first action since 2007 (much like my good friend Theory).  The biggest question, however, is can they find a point guard to get all these white shooters the ball?

9.  Marquette Eagles.  Marquette was supposed to be down last year after losing their kick-ass guard trio, but Lazar Hayward (T-Wolves, what up?) was a beast and Jimmy Butler made huge leaps and helped carry the Golden Eagles to the NCAA Tournament where they just barely dropped their first round game to Washington.  Hayward is gone, as are starting guards David Cubillon and Maurice Acker, but Butler returns along with third leading scorer Darius Johnson-Odom.  If they get can good point play from either sophomore Junior Cadougan or freshman Vander Blue they might surprise some people.  As long as they beat Wisconsin (they play every year, don't they?) I'll be happy.  Go to hell, Badgers, go to hell.

10.  Seton Hall Pirates.  This might actually be a bit low for the Pirates, as I think they have real sleeper potential - in the conference, not necessarily nationally - but they also have a high chance of implosion as well.  Herb Pope is as talented as anyone but is essentially a walking injury risk, Jeremy Hazell is a scoring machine but is also a tremendous chucker, Keon Lawrence was very good for Missouri but had a terrible year last season in his first as a Pirate, and Jeff Robinson - well, I have nothing really to say there.  But the moral of the story is the Pirates have their top four players back, but with a new coach and some volatile personalities this story can go either way.  I'm rooting for things to go well, I do own a Seton Hall hat after all, but it will be interesting.  Last year, coach Bobby Gonzalez played a wide-open, uptempo style, but new coach Kevin Willard's Iona was a slow-down, deliberate team.  Interesting to see how that all ends up shaking out.

11.  Louisville Cardinals.  Another down year is in the cards for the cards before things start to turn around with a great class Pitino is bringing in for 2011.  Louisville loses its top three scorers from last season in Samardo Samuels, Edgar Sosa, and Jerry Smith, along with fellow starter , leaving the team with a whole lot of role players and no star power.  I don't know, I guess Terrence Jennings was supposed to be the next Earl Clark/Terrence Williams/Francisco Garcia, but man Pitino already has a very good 2011 class coming in, even after missing on a couple of key targets, so this is going to be a transition year and probably not very fun.  Except maybe for Rick, assuming he finds another team employee's wife to hump around with.

12.  South Florida Bulls.  Dominique Jones was completely awesome, and losing him is a big blow, but there's still some talent here in Tampa.  Gus Gilchrist and Jarrid Famous are both over 6-10, and both are excellent interior scorers and good rebounders.  That kind of size and talent is going to give some teams fits.  Former Ohio State problem child Anthony Crater is still getting in trouble now that he's a Bull, and didn't exactly light it up when he did play, but he was once a pretty highly regarded point guard coming out of high school with a lot of good offers from a lot of good programs.  You know what they always say, if you give a headcase enough chances, he will always come through for you in the end and never, ever end up a huge disappointment. 

13.  Cincinnati Bearcats.  This was my sleeper team last year, but their inability to close in tight games killed them and they ended up in the NIT (where they lost to freaking Dayton) instead of in the Final Four.  With Lance Stephenson and Deonta Vaughn now gone, there are major holes to fill and with the incoming class very meh it's going to be up to the returnees if Cincy is going to be something other than a cellar dweller.  I watched a lot of Cincy ball last year, since I had a crush on them, and center Yancy Gates is the only one who was remotely impressive last year.  Other than that they are a bunch of solid players but no real stars, and "point guard" Cashmere Wright was awful.  Remember Kerwin Fleming?  Throw out that improbable run he had in the NIT after Monson let him play streetball and you have Wright, except he's expected to start and lead the team.  Yeah. 

14.  Providence Friars.  In reading up on the Big East, I discovered that this team was really, really bad defensively last year.  In fact, they ranked 237th in Ken Pomeroy's defensive efficiency ratings, which put them at dead last amongst all BCS conference teams.  They accomplished this by allowing opponents to shoot 52.2% on 2-pointers (327th), only turning their opponents over 18% of the time (290th), and allowing an offensive rebound on 36.6% of their opponents misses (309th).  So, to recap, the Friars almost always allowed their opponent to get a shot off, and it almost always went in, and when it didn't go in, they usually allowed them to have a second chance at it.  That is not good.  On the bright side, their offense was actually quite efficient.  This will all probably happen again. 

15.  Rutgers Scarlet Knights.  The big signing of Mike Rosario a few couple years ago didn't exactly turn the Scarlet Knights around, and now he's transferred out to Florida and the team's second best player, Greg Echenique has left as well to go play at Creighton.  New coach Mike Rice has already made some big moves on the recruiting trail and things are looking up, but this year will be tough with nobody over 6-8 on the roster.  Talented sophomore Dane Miller is back, but Rutgers will struggle to win more than a couple of games in conference play this year, the talent level just isn't there, despite an awesome home arena.  Quincy Douby is rolling over in his grave. 


16.  DePaul Blue Demons.  The team with the worst arena in college ball will once again be the worst major college team in the land, except I think this makes three years in a row.  Things might be looking up a bit with a new coach in Oliver Purnell, who has built programs up before (Dayton/Clemson), but this year is going to be another rough one.  Last year the team was built around two players (Mac Koshwal and Will Walker) who scored over half the team's points on a per game basis, and now both are gone.  With not much here and a less than imposing incoming class, it's going to be a rough year.  These guys are like the football Minnesota Gophers of college basketball.


Other Previews:
Pac-10
ACC
Big 12

Week in Review - 4/4/2010

Baseball baseball baseball baseball baseball.  Seriously, this NCAA hoops championship matchup really sucks, but at least we have baseball.  Hell, I even enjoyed the hell out of the Yankees/Red Sox last night, and usually I'd rather die than watch those two teams play.  Now, if some of their fans want to go at it, who am I to stand in the way?

God bless baseball.

WHO WAS AWESOME

1.  Harrison Barnes.  Did you happen to check out any of the McDonald's All-Star festivities this week?  If you did, you would have definitely noticed Harrison Barnes.  First was all the goofy stuff, in which Mr. Barnes finished third in the three-point competition and third in the skills competition while eschewing the dunk contest because he was too pimp and knows that dunk contests are for the same people who love monster truck rallies and Big Buck Hunter.  Then he went out and dominated the actual all-star game, scoring 18 points and grabbing I think something like 40 rebounds.  He is going to be a beast.  Remember the part where I said he finished third in both the skills competition and the three-point contest?  Yeah, he's also 6-7.  And I read where somebody called him "the most competitive high-school player since Kobe Bryant."  I have no idea what that means since I never saw Kobe in high school, but I have to imagine it's some kind of compliment.  Should've picked the Gophers, Harrison.  Your bad.

I should also mention that soon to be Duke PG Kyrie Irving's favorite book is Catcher in the Rye, which automatically means I'm a big fan of his and he's now my second all-time favorite Dookie behind Ricky Price, who was god on Coach K for the Genesis.

2.  Missouri State/Virginia Commonwealth.  Congrats to these two teams for winning their tournaments, Mizz State the CIT and VCU the CBI.  Unlike the NIT you can actually take pride in winning these two tournaments (more on that below).  Your team sucked and wasn't worthy of an NCAA bid and probably had no shot since day one, but you get to keep playing against other semi-crappy teams and if you win you've proven you're the best of the lousiest.  Hey, it's something.  Better than being Iowa.

3.  Eric Hayes.  I know you don't know who this is, so I'll just tell you.  He's a graduating senior guard on Maryland who averaged 11 pts and 4 assists per game this season, but more importantly he took his 45% three-point shooting to the NCAA Three-point contest earlier this week and won the whole thing, and dominated while doing it.  He posted the best score in each of the three rounds while shooting his way past guys like Ryan Wittman, Jason Bohannon, and other assorted whities to grab the title and join the prestigious list of past winners which includes nobody who I can remember right now.  And that's really I have to say about Eric Hayes.  You can expect Blake to be in this thing next year.

4.  Butler.  I have no idea why I'm not solidly behind Butler.  I mean, I'll be rooting for them since they're playing Duke who are all gays or jerks or gay jerks, but I'm just not buying into the whole underdog thing.  Maybe it's too much of being shoved down my throat and all the retarded comparisons to Hoosiers.  I don't know.  I just know that I'm not a Butler fan.  Except for tonight.  Tonight I will be praying to god that Butler wins, and you know God cares about this one because everybody knows Duke is Satan's team.

5.  The Taco Hawks.  Seriously you guys, me and Snake's Fantasy Baseball team (named after former WKU star Orlando Mendez-Valdez) is just stacked.  Check this out:
C - Matt Wieters.  See here
1B - Justin Morneau - 30 homers + fun factor?  Perfect.
2B - Rickie Weeks - he walks often and has power, expect a big year after his injury last season
3B - Evan Longoria - you know you have a crush on him too
SS - Jason Bartlett - last year wasn't a fluke.  Nice trade, Twins.
OF - Matt Kemp - 30/30 is his downside
OF - BJ Upton - he's back, baby.
OF - Jason Kubel - yet another MVP candidate on our team
UT - Billy Butler - keeps getting better

SP - Zach Grienke - will probably win 20 even on that shitty team
SP - Cole Hamels - thanks for letting him slide, draft-mates
SP - Chad Billingsley - a lock for 20 wins
SP - Tommy Hansen - stud
SP - Matt Garza - yes, that's five Cy Young candidates on our team
RP - Rafael Soriano - plenty of chances for saves with the Rays
RP - Jon Rauch - Believe it.

And that's without even getting into the potential breakout pitchers on our bench - Stephen Strasburg, Homer Bailey, and Madison Bumgarner.

I told you - we're stacked..  And we did it without a single Yankee, Red Sock, or White Sock, so there are no dirty feelings.  Although you should know Snake was pushing to take Jeter around the fourth or fifth round.  Ick.


WHO SUCKED

1.  J'mison Morgan.  No, he's not here for that horrendous spelling of his name, but because he seems like he might be following the Jaron Rush school of squandering your talent.  Morgan was the #25 recruit coming out two years ago and the #4 center in his class.  Since signing with UCLA, however, he hasn't done much and was dismissed from the team earlier this week.  Morgan was suspended for a game in early March for missing a meeting and didn't play in either of the Bruins Pac-10 Tournament games, and pretty much struggled with being fat all season long.  When he did play he didn't do much, averaging just 2.1 points and 1.1 rebounds per game over his two years, with career highs of 8 points and 4 rebounds.  UCLA has now lost Morgan and Drew Gordon this season, but honestly they're probably better off.  Howland really needs to recalibrate his recruitilizer before he ends up without a team.  I hear Monson is gunning for the UCLA job.  Also nice name, jackass.

2.  Dayton.  I know that I've ever said anything good about Dayton, and I'm not going to start now just because they won the NIT.  Hey morons, how about you play like this during the season, actually live up to expectations and make the NCAA Tournament instead of winning something that almost ten people in the whole world even know is going on.  Chris Wright, Marcus Johnson, and Chris Johnson all had a couple of really nice games in Madison Square Garden in the Flyers' wins over Ole Miss and UNC, but where were you all season long?  If you were a little more consistent you wouldn't have lost to St. Louis.  Or Duquesne.  Or St. Joe's.  I swear winning the NIT is nothing more than a reminder that your team shit the bed and way underachieved all season long.

3.  West Virginia.  Da'Sean Butler didn't bother to show up until the game was mostly out of hand, the Mountaineers played basically zero defense and little offense, they couldn't keep Zoubek off the glass, and for some unfathomable reason Bobby Huggins never went with the 1-3-1, despite the fact that it was the team's go-to defense all year long and that man-to-man was doing nothing but giving Duke wide open looks.  If you were worried about going zone against a team with shooters like Duke, trust me, they couldn't have gotten more open.  Just an ugly, crappy, shitty game by a Mountaineer team that on Saturday didn't come close to resembling the team they were all season long.  Ugly. 

4.  Chicago Cubs.  Guess who the Cubbies' fourth starter is this year?  Come on, guess.  You'll never get it.  It's Carlos Silva.  It seems he's not only still in baseball, which seemed unlikely enough, but also beat out Jeff Samardzjia and Sean Marshall, which means those two should probably start considering killing themselves - or, failing that obvious move, retire.  I can't even come up with anything else to say here.  Carlos Silva won the fourth spot in the Cubs' rotation really just speaks for itself.

5.  Red Sox.  They actually allowed the Yankees to pull off the double steal, first and third thing.  Seriously, what is this, little league?


Finally, I leave you with the following:

"The one constant through all the years has been baseball. America has rolled by like an army of steamrollers. It's been erased like a blackboard, rebuilt, and erased again. But baseball has marked the time. This field, this game, is a part of our past. It reminds us of all that once was good, and what could be again."