So MLB in their infinite wisdom has decided to add a second wild card team beginning this season whereby the first round of the playoffs will consist on one game in each league between the two wild card teams, in an attempt to cash in on the excitement the Game 163s have generated the last few years in a move that was almost certainly driven by the almighty dollar.
That being said, I like it. Not only does it give more teams a chance to be relevant late into the season (which, face it, as a Twins fan is a big selling point) but it finally gives a meaningful advantage to the teams that win their division over the Wildcard winner. Before the only difference was home field advantage, now winning a wild card means you play one game for your playoff life while the division winners know they have a full series coming up. I'm 100% on board, thanks for asking.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Chip Armelin. I know the clearest sign of a terrible college season for a team is to start evaluating players in terms of their futures before the year is even over, but here we are, and Armelin played a great game against Nebraska. It was nice to see a player actually attempt to score, not to mention that scoring seemed to be the #1 thing on his mind - a true rarity on the Gopher teams of the Tubby Smith era. He even took a heat check after he made those three treys, and as a huge fan of the heat check it was nice to see because nobody else ever does it on this team. I'm not exactly sure how to project him going forward (assuming he stays with Minnesota) but with him, Dre Hollins, and Joe Coleman the team at least has three guard types who are aggressive with the ball and aren't afraid to attack the rim and attempt to score. For now, at least, until Tubby beats them into submission and they start being afraid to drive.
2. Colonial Conference. Well, the Colonial teams did what they were supposed to do. The CAA had two teams in the mix for an at-large bid in VCU and Drexel, and both made it through to the CAA Final this week. Obviously whichever team wins gets the auto-bid and the other will have to wait for Sunday and hope they get called, but they've done what the both needed to at this point. Both are so on the bubble that it's really tough to say if they'd get in with a loss and might need to catch a few breaks but with Murray State and Creighton getting autobids that's two at-larges that are safe. I'm hoping the committee does the right thing and let's them both in over crappy big 6 teams like Arizona, Seton Hall, or Miami, but that big conference bias has reared it's head in the past, so I'm skeptical at best. [NOTE: VCU ended up winning, and even though it was a close game that pretty much went down to the wire I came away less impressed with Drexel than I was the last time I watched them. I still think they're a good, tough mid-major but I no longer think it'll be a travesty if they don't get a bid. They'll probably just beat the Gophers in NIT round 1.]
3. Indiana Hoosiers. When Indiana started out the year hot I wasn't buying it. Then they beat Kentucky and Ohio State and I was like ok maybe. Then they lost three straight including a home loss to the Gophers and on the road at Nebraska and I was like ha ha I knew it. Then they just kind of did what decent big ten teams always do (win at home, lose on the road, beat who you should, don't get upset, blah blah) and it was boring, but this week might have won me over. The beat both Michigan State and Purdue handily and as everyone who was talking about anything about basketball last week made sure to let you know that's three top-five teams they've now beaten this year. What really won me over was in watching good size chunks of both of those games they're more athletic than I thought. They still won't be confused for Kentucky, but guys like Sheehey and Oladipo are really good athletes, and Hulls and Watford move around better than I remembered. I still don't think they can get any further than the Sweet 16, but not long ago I was penciling them in as being upset in round 1, so they've made me rethink things a bit.
4. Cincinnati Bearcats. Well that's certainly how you make a run when you're stuck on the bubble come late February. The Bearcats beat Marquette and Villanova this week (at Nova) to finish the regular season with five wins in the last six including wins over three teams in the top 56 RPI and the only loss to South Florida on the road (RPI 45). You still can't quite guarantee they're in because that horrendous strength of schedule (#321 non-conference SOS with 9 games against sub-200 RPI teams) and the ugly loss against Presbyterian (RPI 246) which has a good chance to be the worst loss by any tournament team this year, but they're now up to 5-4 against the RPI Top 50 and 7-5 road/neutral and they simply just belong. Their RPI is held back by that SOS and is shaky at 66 right now, but a few weeks ago they were in the mid-80s, so this is a solid run that's kind of inspiring in the same way the Gophers falling from solidly in to no shot in one short month is inspiring but the opposite.
5. North Carolina Tar Heels. Ruh roh. I think everybody has known all year the Heels were behind only Kentucky in pure talent, but for whatever reason seemed to not quite be able to put it together and kind of drifted along, as double digit losses to UNLV and Florida State attest to. I mean sure, they won lots of games and all, but they were definitely not living up to their talent level. And then Duke won in Chapel Hill. And something snapped. The Heels have won their last seven, including absolutely crushing Duke's soul in Durham and easy road wins against three possible tournament teams in Virginia (lock), Miami (likely), NC State (very unlikely). I was hoping they wouldn't figure it out so I could trust them to lose early, but looks like no such luck, and Kendall Marshall was just snubbed for ACC first team so, well, yeah, there's that. And keep in mind that Roy Williams has no interest in conference tournaments so if/when UNC flames out early in the ACC tourney don't let that affect your NCAA picks. Or let it. More sweet sweet delicious sexy money for me sex.
WHO SUCKED
1. St. Louis Cardinals. Lemme get this straight. First, you lose your best player, maybe the best player of his generation and the face of your franchise because you can't afford to pay him. Then you turn around and give your catcher $15mm per year? So let's see. Pujols got 10 years, $240 million from the Angels for an average salary of $24 million each season. From what I can find, the biggest offer the Cardinals put on the table was 9 years, $205 million - or $22.78 million per. You're telling me you couldn't take a few extra million you offered Molina and use it to re-sign Pujols and then offer Molina $13 per instead of $15? You're telling me he wouldn't take that? Seems like knee jerk reaction to make sure you don't lose your second most beloved player after botching it on the first. Then again, my favorite team gave their catcher 800 bajillion dollars to sit on the bench, so who am I to talk.
2. Wichita State. Losing in the semis of a middle tier conference tournament to a non-descript Illinois State team is never a good thing, but in this case it doesn't really bother me nor my love for the Shockers (the team, not the act). First of all and most importantly they're already guaranteed an at-large bid thanks to a very good resume, so this loss doesn't knock them out. Some people will say they'll be more rested but I don't really care about that because a couple of days doesn't make much difference to a 20-year old college athlete, but what I really like is this will knock their seed down a peg. If they're a 5 or 6 instead of a 3 or 4 fewer people will pick them to make the sweet 16 and even fewer will pick them to make the Elite 8 so when I do and they do I will be the winner and the money will be mine all mine oh sweet money yes I want the money oh yes.
3. The Pac-12. I'm starting to think they should just go ahead and not invite anyone from the Pac-10, including the conference winner. Arizona starts to look like they're in decent shape and they lose to atrocious Arizona State (RPI 248) to knock them out of the running for a bid. Washington starts to look like they could maybe get comfortable and they lose to UCLA (RPI 112). Cal nearly has a bid completely sewn up, but they lose to Stanford (RPI 95), and suddenly nobody is anywhere near a lock. If Cal and/or Washington get to the Pac-12 final they're probably ok, especially with all the chalk winning the conference tourneys so far, but if they come up short this might really be a one bid league. At this point the right move might be to just give it to Oregon, because they at least seem like they want to make it and have won four straight. Don't be shocked if the Ducks end up taking this tournament and the only Pac-12 bid this year.
4. Iona Gaels. Well shit. I couldn't be more bummed about the Gaels losing in the quarters of the MAAC Tournament, because this is a really good, fun, dangerous team and suddenly they're probably not going to get a bid to the NCAAs. That loss (to Fairfield) gives Iona they're fourth loss to a sub-100 RPI team with two of those teams being sub-200, and that's not going to help, especially considering there's only one win over a top 50 team (Nevada). They 5-3 record over the Top 100 is fine and the RPI is ok at 46, but there's an awful lot of questions about the profile here. If they had made the conference final and lost to Loyola (RPI 85) they'd be in a lot better shape, but if ifs and buts were candy and nuts every day would be Erntedankfest.
5. Seton Hall Pirates. As much as Cincinnati might be the poster team for doing things the right way to get a bid, Seton Hall might be your classic team that does something awesome to make their fans think they're going to do it and then fuck it all up, or as I like to call it, "pulling a Gopher." Really though, since beating Georgetown and making everybody say "well shit this Seton Hall team might be the goods" the Pirates have lost to Rutgers (RPI 153) and DePaul (RPI 193) which is like LOL. They play Providence tomorrow (today, if you're reading this instead of doing work) and although the Friars aren't exactly good or anything like that, they do own wins this year over Louisville and UCONN so it's not like they're a piece of crap. Plus I'd rather have Providence win so we can forget all about this shitty team who sucks and maybe they can get Iona in there instead. Do it for the children.
And with that I'm out of here. Off to the great state of Florida with the family to be closely followed by a trip to Chicago to watch the NCAA Tournament with Bogart, Dawger, and Snake. Probably drink some beer, some vodka, some redbull, and eat a few wings, too. So I have no idea if/when I'll be posting again. I'll try to get something up when I'm in Florida, but god willing I'll be too busy. Then again, the whole family will be there so maybe I'll have to pretend to "work" and blog it up. You hope.
Lastly I want to mention that I won our Big 10 Fantasy League, beating Bogart in a thriller in the championship and a big thank you to Drew Crawford. Dawger finished dead last.
Showing posts with label Seton Hall. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Seton Hall. Show all posts
Monday, March 5, 2012
Monday, February 27, 2012
Week in Review: 2-27/2012
I have no idea what to say or how to say it. We've been down this road again and again and written this same recap again and again. That was just an embarrassing loss, particularly when the season was on the line (as thin as that line may have been) and it was a home game against a team you've already beaten on the road. To get absolutely blown out in a must-win home game sends pretty much the loudest message possible to the committee that you don't belong in the NCAA Tournament. Even winning out the last two and making a run to the conference tournament final probably isn't enough anymore, but we don't really have to worry about it because there is zero chance this team can win at Wisconsin. They've checked out.
I don't think they've checked out on Tubby, but they've certainly checked out on this season. The body language says it all, and Ralph's 1-11 shooting performance on Sunday basically sums it up. This is a defeated team, and Tubby feels it as well. At this point these two games need to just end, then lose in the first round of the b10 tourney, and start planning for next year. It's clear the players just want this season to end, and I can't blame them because it's been miserable these last couple of weeks. But I'm not on the fire Tubby bandwagon, even if I've been critical of his game coaching abilities. I remain critical of those, but he deserves one more year, but it's a make or break year. If there's another season that goes similarly to this one, it's time to move on. The important thing is to build a program, and if he misses another NCAA Tournament, well, there's no building going on. One more year, Tubby. Show us why we were all excited when the hiring was initially announced. This is just sad.
I mean, look at Notre Dame this year. Both the Gophers and Notre Dame received exactly one 25th place vote in a poll to start the season (Gophers in the AP, Notre Dame in the coaches). Both teams lost their best player for the year, a senior power forward, early in the season (like Mbakwe for the Gophers, Tim Abromaitis led the team in both scoring and rebounding when he went down). Neither team had any kind of real impact freshman coming in, so post-injury both schools looked to be in trouble. But, where the Gophers have struggled and floundered and canceled out any flashes of brilliance with some terrible outings, Notre Dame has played together, executed well consistently, and completely bought in to Mike Brey's system and is 20-10 overall, 12-5 in the Big East, and a lock for the tournament. Look at these two teams. It's hard to say Notre Dame is significantly more talented, if at all, than the Gophers, and yet look at the results. Unsettling, at best.
We move on....
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Iowa State Cyclones. Well, for those of you out there who were complete idiots and were saying Fred Hoiberg was some kind of moron for collected talented yet troubled transfers (and you know who you are) how about you pour some Bacardi 151 in your butthole and chase it with a match? Because Iowa State just won at Kansas State - the same K-State who just beat both Baylor and Missouri on the road - to move to 11-5 in Big 12 play and 21-8 overall. They're now tied for 4th with Baylor in the Conference and have now 100% locked up an NCAA bid. While the Gophers need a miracle. I'm moving to Ames. Plus they got craps there.
2. Purdue Boilermakers. While every other Big 10 team who was chasing a bid goes down faster than your mom on prom night, Purdue is taking a stand and doing what needs to be done like full grown men. I'm just kidding about that sentence by the way, it's intentionally douchey (except for the mom joke, that's all me). Anyway, while everyone else is pooping on their heads, Purdue went into Ann Arbor and beat Michigan, a team that was undefeated at home this year, was ranked #11 in the polls, #10 in the RPI, and #21 in kenpom's ratings. That, my friends, is the definition of a signature win and puts Purdue firmly into tournament lock status. And you know how they won? Because Terone Johnson shot 9-12 for 22 points and carried the offense. You know the last time an unsung-y Gopher like Johnson stepped up to carry the team to a victory? Caddyshack. Cue rimshot.
3. Kansas Jayhawks. I kind of feel like I've been underrating the Jayhawks all year, mainly because they're a two-man show and also because I hate them and have hated them since that little wiener Jeff Boschee was running around being wienery. But they're about to win the Big 12 for the 9th straight year* after beating Missouri, and that win was a freaking ballsy ass win because they were down 19 and came back against an incredibly good team. And Thomas Robinson? Holy hell is this guy good. He's nearly flawless in the low post, and because Missouri only has one low-post kind of defender in Ricardo Ratliffe (who, by the way, is completely awesome in his own way) they chose to single cover Robinson all game and he put on a clinic. Now, this is hyperbole of the biggest fashion so don't jump down my throat, but watching him I actually was reminded of Hakeem Olajuwon. I know, I know, but I was. I can't help it. Guy's legit.
4. Miami Hurricanes. I've said it before and I'll say it again, I'm always impressed with teams on the Bubble who go out and get that big home win that they need (mainly because I don't know if I've ever seen it from my favorite team), and Miami did just that this weekend, taking down the #16 Seminoles 78-62 to jump up and likely grab themselves and NCAA bid. Most impressive is that they did it without starting center and double-double guy Reggie Johnson, who was ruled ineligible by the NCAA due to some minor infractions that will hopefully be resolved quickly. Not to mention that even without him they managed to put up 78 points on the usually defensively studly Seminoles, the first time a team has scored that much on them since January 7th. Pretty sure Miami sucks and won't win a game in the tourney, but at least they're most likely going to make it.
5. South Florida Bulls. Speaking of college teams from the state of Florida who picked up huge wins with bubble ramifications over the weekend, USF knocked off fellow bubble team Cincinnati on Sunday and can pretty officially no longer be ignored. The game wasn't pretty with the Bulls winning 46-45, both teams having just one player score in double figures, and the two teams combined to shoot 6-30 from 3-point land, but USF did what they needed to do and got a big victory. South Florida is now 11-5 in the Big East, has bumped their RPI up to 45 (right behind K-State), and now has a 4-1 record against teams between 40-100 in the RPI. Of course, they are also 0-7 vs. the RPI top 40 and have three losses against sub-100 teams, but closing out the season at 11-4 is pretty solid. You'd have to think if they can finish out 1-1 (@Louisville, vs. WVU) and then win their Big East Tourny opener they'd be in - a far cry from the team that started the year 7-7 and lost to Penn State (among other craptastic squads).
WHO SUCKED
1. Seton Hall Pirates. Are you shitting me Seton Hall? So they beat Georgetown for one of the most meaningful bubble wins this year and it's all like oh hell yes sweet what a great win awesome to see a team actually step up when they have to. And how do they follow it up? By losing at home to freaking Rutgers. Rutgers of the four conference wins and #149 RPI. Seriously, I mean if this doesn't completely wipe out all the good they did by beating the Hoyas it's damn close. I swear to god this is exactly what I expect from the Gophers or Northwestern, not a real team from the Big East. Shaheen Holloway is probably rolling over in his sports grave.
2. West Virginia Mountaineers. Even though there are plenty of teams doing everything they can to avoid getting invited to the NCAA Tournament, I don't know if anybody is doing a better job of tanking than West Virginia. On January 21 they were 15-5 and 5-2 in the Big East after beating Cincinnati. Since then they've gone 2-7 (with one of the wins taking overtime to beat Providence). This week may have been the worst, first going to Notre Dame and getting beat by 30, then taking on a Marquette squad that suspended three starters for the first half, building an 11-point half-time lead, and then blowing it and losing by one. A team that looked like an easy lock for the NCAA Tournament a month ago is now completely floundering, and with just games vs. DePaul and @ South Florida left a 2-0 finish is now an absolute must, and they might need a win or two in the Big East Tournament to get in. Seriously, if Huggins is going to find a way to cheat he might as well get started pretty quick.
3. Florida Gators. Jeez this seems like a very Florida-y week in review, which I guess is kind of appropriate since I'm going to Florida for a family vacation starting next Tuesday and that's kind of on my mind, but it's been a very Florda-centric week for being awesome and sucking so here we are. Anyway, the Gators continue to show how vulnerable they are because of their reliance on the perimeter jumper, and Georgia took advantage taking them down 76-62 with the Gators shooting just 5-23 from three. 39% of Florida's points come from three-pointers, the 3rd most in the country, and 44.6% of their shot attempts come from behind the arc (6th in the nation). Even though they do shoot them well (39.4%, 16th in the country) relying on something that can disappear in any given game, combined with a pretty bad defense (94th in Defensive efficiency) is a recipe for any early March exit.
4. Ohio State Buckeyes. Obviously there are varying degrees of sucking because I would kill your mother if it meant the Gophers would even approach Ohio State's success, but for a team that was/is supposed to be a national title contender there are some major concerns right now, with Ohio State 2-3 in their last five games including two home losses (to Michigan State and Wisconsin, but still). The Buckeyes were supposed to cruise to a Big 10 title and even with Michigan State having a tremendous year they should still be the class of the conference, but all of a sudden they're showing a whole bunch of chinks in their armor (wait, are we allowed to say that?) Buford has just been plain off most of the year, Craft hasn't turned into anything on the offensive end, and suddenly Sullinger is disappearing in games (17 total points in the last two, plus 1-7 from the free throw line when he's a 74% shooter this season). Still plenty of talent here and they're probably still one of the 10 best teams in the country, but suddenly an early round loss in the tournament doesn't seem like the impossibility it once did.
5. Cal Golden Bears. I don't know why I obsess about the Pac-10's mediocrity so much, but it's just mind boggling that a conference with schools like UCLA, USC, Washington, Cal, etc. can be so bad at basketball for so long. Every year there's a point where it looks like the Pac-12 might only get one bid, and although I don't think it's actually happened yet it's amazing how close it gets every year. And once again this season just when it looks like both Cal and Washington are safe, Cal goes out and gets destroyed by Colorado 70-57. Both Washington and Cal will probably still get in and everything, but jeez man, it's just amazing how much they suck. Also, in a semi-related note, with all the conference realignment going on I think what makes the most sense is for the Gophers to move into the Pac-12. It's common sense, really.
With conference tournaments starting up this week I need to get to work on the small conference tournament previews, so you'll have to do without your pithy outro this week. You know, the outro nobody reads because they've usually bailed on my post halfway through or so because it's too long and/or boring? Yeah, that.
* = I made this up because I was toodrunk tired to actually look it up
I don't think they've checked out on Tubby, but they've certainly checked out on this season. The body language says it all, and Ralph's 1-11 shooting performance on Sunday basically sums it up. This is a defeated team, and Tubby feels it as well. At this point these two games need to just end, then lose in the first round of the b10 tourney, and start planning for next year. It's clear the players just want this season to end, and I can't blame them because it's been miserable these last couple of weeks. But I'm not on the fire Tubby bandwagon, even if I've been critical of his game coaching abilities. I remain critical of those, but he deserves one more year, but it's a make or break year. If there's another season that goes similarly to this one, it's time to move on. The important thing is to build a program, and if he misses another NCAA Tournament, well, there's no building going on. One more year, Tubby. Show us why we were all excited when the hiring was initially announced. This is just sad.
I mean, look at Notre Dame this year. Both the Gophers and Notre Dame received exactly one 25th place vote in a poll to start the season (Gophers in the AP, Notre Dame in the coaches). Both teams lost their best player for the year, a senior power forward, early in the season (like Mbakwe for the Gophers, Tim Abromaitis led the team in both scoring and rebounding when he went down). Neither team had any kind of real impact freshman coming in, so post-injury both schools looked to be in trouble. But, where the Gophers have struggled and floundered and canceled out any flashes of brilliance with some terrible outings, Notre Dame has played together, executed well consistently, and completely bought in to Mike Brey's system and is 20-10 overall, 12-5 in the Big East, and a lock for the tournament. Look at these two teams. It's hard to say Notre Dame is significantly more talented, if at all, than the Gophers, and yet look at the results. Unsettling, at best.
We move on....
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Iowa State Cyclones. Well, for those of you out there who were complete idiots and were saying Fred Hoiberg was some kind of moron for collected talented yet troubled transfers (and you know who you are) how about you pour some Bacardi 151 in your butthole and chase it with a match? Because Iowa State just won at Kansas State - the same K-State who just beat both Baylor and Missouri on the road - to move to 11-5 in Big 12 play and 21-8 overall. They're now tied for 4th with Baylor in the Conference and have now 100% locked up an NCAA bid. While the Gophers need a miracle. I'm moving to Ames. Plus they got craps there.
2. Purdue Boilermakers. While every other Big 10 team who was chasing a bid goes down faster than your mom on prom night, Purdue is taking a stand and doing what needs to be done like full grown men. I'm just kidding about that sentence by the way, it's intentionally douchey (except for the mom joke, that's all me). Anyway, while everyone else is pooping on their heads, Purdue went into Ann Arbor and beat Michigan, a team that was undefeated at home this year, was ranked #11 in the polls, #10 in the RPI, and #21 in kenpom's ratings. That, my friends, is the definition of a signature win and puts Purdue firmly into tournament lock status. And you know how they won? Because Terone Johnson shot 9-12 for 22 points and carried the offense. You know the last time an unsung-y Gopher like Johnson stepped up to carry the team to a victory? Caddyshack. Cue rimshot.
3. Kansas Jayhawks. I kind of feel like I've been underrating the Jayhawks all year, mainly because they're a two-man show and also because I hate them and have hated them since that little wiener Jeff Boschee was running around being wienery. But they're about to win the Big 12 for the 9th straight year* after beating Missouri, and that win was a freaking ballsy ass win because they were down 19 and came back against an incredibly good team. And Thomas Robinson? Holy hell is this guy good. He's nearly flawless in the low post, and because Missouri only has one low-post kind of defender in Ricardo Ratliffe (who, by the way, is completely awesome in his own way) they chose to single cover Robinson all game and he put on a clinic. Now, this is hyperbole of the biggest fashion so don't jump down my throat, but watching him I actually was reminded of Hakeem Olajuwon. I know, I know, but I was. I can't help it. Guy's legit.
4. Miami Hurricanes. I've said it before and I'll say it again, I'm always impressed with teams on the Bubble who go out and get that big home win that they need (mainly because I don't know if I've ever seen it from my favorite team), and Miami did just that this weekend, taking down the #16 Seminoles 78-62 to jump up and likely grab themselves and NCAA bid. Most impressive is that they did it without starting center and double-double guy Reggie Johnson, who was ruled ineligible by the NCAA due to some minor infractions that will hopefully be resolved quickly. Not to mention that even without him they managed to put up 78 points on the usually defensively studly Seminoles, the first time a team has scored that much on them since January 7th. Pretty sure Miami sucks and won't win a game in the tourney, but at least they're most likely going to make it.
5. South Florida Bulls. Speaking of college teams from the state of Florida who picked up huge wins with bubble ramifications over the weekend, USF knocked off fellow bubble team Cincinnati on Sunday and can pretty officially no longer be ignored. The game wasn't pretty with the Bulls winning 46-45, both teams having just one player score in double figures, and the two teams combined to shoot 6-30 from 3-point land, but USF did what they needed to do and got a big victory. South Florida is now 11-5 in the Big East, has bumped their RPI up to 45 (right behind K-State), and now has a 4-1 record against teams between 40-100 in the RPI. Of course, they are also 0-7 vs. the RPI top 40 and have three losses against sub-100 teams, but closing out the season at 11-4 is pretty solid. You'd have to think if they can finish out 1-1 (@Louisville, vs. WVU) and then win their Big East Tourny opener they'd be in - a far cry from the team that started the year 7-7 and lost to Penn State (among other craptastic squads).
WHO SUCKED
1. Seton Hall Pirates. Are you shitting me Seton Hall? So they beat Georgetown for one of the most meaningful bubble wins this year and it's all like oh hell yes sweet what a great win awesome to see a team actually step up when they have to. And how do they follow it up? By losing at home to freaking Rutgers. Rutgers of the four conference wins and #149 RPI. Seriously, I mean if this doesn't completely wipe out all the good they did by beating the Hoyas it's damn close. I swear to god this is exactly what I expect from the Gophers or Northwestern, not a real team from the Big East. Shaheen Holloway is probably rolling over in his sports grave.
2. West Virginia Mountaineers. Even though there are plenty of teams doing everything they can to avoid getting invited to the NCAA Tournament, I don't know if anybody is doing a better job of tanking than West Virginia. On January 21 they were 15-5 and 5-2 in the Big East after beating Cincinnati. Since then they've gone 2-7 (with one of the wins taking overtime to beat Providence). This week may have been the worst, first going to Notre Dame and getting beat by 30, then taking on a Marquette squad that suspended three starters for the first half, building an 11-point half-time lead, and then blowing it and losing by one. A team that looked like an easy lock for the NCAA Tournament a month ago is now completely floundering, and with just games vs. DePaul and @ South Florida left a 2-0 finish is now an absolute must, and they might need a win or two in the Big East Tournament to get in. Seriously, if Huggins is going to find a way to cheat he might as well get started pretty quick.
3. Florida Gators. Jeez this seems like a very Florida-y week in review, which I guess is kind of appropriate since I'm going to Florida for a family vacation starting next Tuesday and that's kind of on my mind, but it's been a very Florda-centric week for being awesome and sucking so here we are. Anyway, the Gators continue to show how vulnerable they are because of their reliance on the perimeter jumper, and Georgia took advantage taking them down 76-62 with the Gators shooting just 5-23 from three. 39% of Florida's points come from three-pointers, the 3rd most in the country, and 44.6% of their shot attempts come from behind the arc (6th in the nation). Even though they do shoot them well (39.4%, 16th in the country) relying on something that can disappear in any given game, combined with a pretty bad defense (94th in Defensive efficiency) is a recipe for any early March exit.
4. Ohio State Buckeyes. Obviously there are varying degrees of sucking because I would kill your mother if it meant the Gophers would even approach Ohio State's success, but for a team that was/is supposed to be a national title contender there are some major concerns right now, with Ohio State 2-3 in their last five games including two home losses (to Michigan State and Wisconsin, but still). The Buckeyes were supposed to cruise to a Big 10 title and even with Michigan State having a tremendous year they should still be the class of the conference, but all of a sudden they're showing a whole bunch of chinks in their armor (wait, are we allowed to say that?) Buford has just been plain off most of the year, Craft hasn't turned into anything on the offensive end, and suddenly Sullinger is disappearing in games (17 total points in the last two, plus 1-7 from the free throw line when he's a 74% shooter this season). Still plenty of talent here and they're probably still one of the 10 best teams in the country, but suddenly an early round loss in the tournament doesn't seem like the impossibility it once did.
5. Cal Golden Bears. I don't know why I obsess about the Pac-10's mediocrity so much, but it's just mind boggling that a conference with schools like UCLA, USC, Washington, Cal, etc. can be so bad at basketball for so long. Every year there's a point where it looks like the Pac-12 might only get one bid, and although I don't think it's actually happened yet it's amazing how close it gets every year. And once again this season just when it looks like both Cal and Washington are safe, Cal goes out and gets destroyed by Colorado 70-57. Both Washington and Cal will probably still get in and everything, but jeez man, it's just amazing how much they suck. Also, in a semi-related note, with all the conference realignment going on I think what makes the most sense is for the Gophers to move into the Pac-12. It's common sense, really.
With conference tournaments starting up this week I need to get to work on the small conference tournament previews, so you'll have to do without your pithy outro this week. You know, the outro nobody reads because they've usually bailed on my post halfway through or so because it's too long and/or boring? Yeah, that.
* = I made this up because I was too
Friday, October 28, 2011
NCAA Basketball Preview - Big East
Ok, conference realignment has officially become out-of-control. The Big East already has 16 teams, but now because they're losing Syracuse (sad) and Pitt (who cares) and have now seen TCU pull out of joining to become a Big 12 team instead they overreact in the opposite direction and add Houston, Southern Methodist, Central Florida, Air Force, and Boise State. Except Air Force and Boise State will only be joining for football. This move does absolutely nothing for basketball except to further weaken a Big East already weakened by the defections, unless you think the recent strong recruiting seen by Houston is sustainable - and I don't.
At first I thought all this conference realignment stuff was kind of cool, but at this point it's just gotten completely out of hand. I don't even know who went where or who didn't or what's merging. Like that Conference USA/Mountain West merger - does that effect hoops in any way? I don't know. It's too confusing. I think it's time to just to to one big conference. Easier that way.
1. UCONN HUSKIES. How are they #1 in a tough conference despite losing Kemba Walker? Because everybody else is back, including Jeremy Lamb (who started to look like a star at the end of last year) and Alex Oriakhi (who is always solid defensively and now his offense is coming along), as well as a group of sophomores (of which Lamb is a part) who were ranked as the #20 recruiting class in the country last season by ESPN. Oh, and they have one of the best classes in the country coming in with PG Ryan Boatright (#42 rivals), SF DeAndre Daniels (#10), and C Andre Drummond (#2). Drummond is ridiculous and he's probably going to make people cry, and will likely be the #1 overall pick in next year's NBA Draft if it happens. Seriously, UCONN is a big-time threat to win back-to-back titles. Doubtful, yes, but a better chance than most.
2. SYRACUSE ORANGE. God Boeheim is just incredible - great class after great class after great class. He's followed up last year's top five class with a top 10 class this year, adding SG Michael Carter-Williams (Rivals #29 overall) and C Rakeem Christmas (#27) to last year's group that included C Fab Melo (#16), SF C.J. Fair (#94), and SG Dion Waiters (#29). Scoop Jardine and Brandon Triche will be back on the perimeter to run things and awkwardly heave the ball at the rim, and scoring machine Kris Joseph is back for more. The only real question is if Christmas (freshman) or Melo (super-subpar first year) can fill in for Rick "Automatic Double-Double" Jackson. If they can, this is a national title contender. If not, they'll be lucky to make it out of the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament.
3. LOUISVILLE CARDINALS. I have a feeling about this Louisville team, and it's not necessarily a good one. I do think they'll be good and a legit Final Four contender, but I also think they're very ripe for some ugly nights. It will basically all come down to Peyton Siva and how well he can control the offense, because with Preston Knowles gone he's now in charge of a whole bunch of talent, but a whole bunch of talent that's a little bit crazy. The Cards have everything you'd need - excellent point guard, dead-eye shooting, perimeter and interior defense, and three incoming swingmen who all rank on in Rivals Top 70 (and a center as well), so really it's going to come down to how well they mesh - and that is going to depend on Siva.
4. PITT PANTHERS. I think at some point Pitt turned itself into kind of a minor dynasty (conference only). They somehow shed the legacy of crappy overrated point guards like Brandin Knight, Carl Krauer, and LeVance Fields and are now actually acquiring good, quality players like Ashton Gibbs who is probably the best player in the conference. They do lose quite a bit with three starters (including the giant version of kid from Kid N Play which makes me sad), and Gibbs biggest help now is a guy who is already hurt and missing most/all the preseason practice time, a point guard who makes LeVance Fields look like Craig Hodges, and a former big time recruit whose failed to average more than 5 points per game in his two seasons at Pitt. But you watch, Gibbs will find a way, and Pitt will break into the top 10 at some point this year. Big fan of this kid.
5. VILLANOVA WILDCATS. Villanova is turning into Chucker University, and this year is shaping up to be no exception as Maalik Wayns looks to become the next in the recent line of all-time great chuckers following Scottie Reynolds, the two Coreys, Allen Ray, and Randy Foye. The real great news is that Wayns looks like he has a chance to be the greatest of them all. His shooting percentage of 40% last year and 3-point percentage of just 27% were some of the worst numbers any of these chuckers put up at any point in their careers, but that didn't stop Wayns from taking the third most shots (and 3-pointers) on the team behind the two Coreys. Really, the stars could be aligning for a spectacular two final years of his career. I'm so excited.
6. CINCINNATI BEARCATS. Why do I have some trouble believing in Cincy? It could be because there best player is named Yancy, but really there's a lot to like about the Bearcats this year. Besides the aforementioned Yancy Gates, their leading scorer and rebounder last year, they also return essentially every player from last year's team that knocked off a very good Missouri team in the NCAA Tournament last year, and also add Shaquille Thomas and Jermaine Sanders, two athletic wings who will fit well in Mick Cronin's hyper-defensive system. The biggest issue here will be Cashmere Wright, who is back to play the point for a third year. Except he can't shoot, turns the ball over too much, and isn't a great distributor. So I guess they got that goin' for 'em.
7. MARQUETTE EAGLES. Jimmy Butler was a do-everything type player and he's gone, but luckily for Marquette Darius Johnson-Odom is back and he's a do-everything type as well who was pretty much just as good as Butler last year and has a chance to be an absolute super star this year without having to share touches with Butler. Jae Crowder lived up to his billing as one of the better JuCo players last season, looking unstoppable on the block at times despite a shaky shooting percentage and could be a big-time player this year. The biggest key for Marquette will be the backcourt with Vander Blue coming off a disappointing freshman year where he had more turnovers than assists and shot at a worse percentage than Maalik Wayns. Junior Cadougan is serviceable but not a star, so they really need Blue to live up to his pre-college hype.
8. WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS. Joel Mazzulla, captain bricklayer himself, is gone along with their best scorer in Casey Mitchell and their best defender, or at least one of, in John Flowers. Even so, Huggy Bear will have these guys in contention for an NCAA bid because they're always going to play tough defense and Kevin Jones is back and ripe for a Big East player of the year type season. The biggest key will be Truck Bryant, who will have to pretty much main the point alone with Maz gone. Assuming he can avoid running into cars this season, WVU should be ok.
9. NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH. Obviously most of these previews are me combining my limited knowledge on these teams with what I can read, both online and in print, and trying to come up with some decent conclusions. So basically a lot of guessing. One thing I'm not guessing about, however, and I'll make it a guarantee, is that you're going to be sick of hearing about Tim Abromaitis by the end of this season. Seriously, between him and Scott Martin the Irish are going to once again be the great white hope, except now the third wheel in little Hansbrough is gone and I have this crazy feeling Abromaitis is going to have a Harangody like season, only less behemoth-y. Put on your gritty, hustly, heady, smart player shoes because it's going to be a rough year if you watch any of there games. And god help you if they actually end up good. God. Help. You.
10. GEORGETOWN HOYAS. For the last several years the Hoyas have been a big-time March threat - at least on paper - and it's been on the strength of their guard play. Unfortunately for them, they're in the habit of getting bounced to early and two of their three stud guards are now gone. The one remaining, Jason Clark, was more of the third wheel type, and will now have to become the #1 option, and basically the difference for the Hoyas between a good or bad season, because between him and Hollis Thompson - who is the only offensive big man of consequence who is returning, they're going to have to be most of the offense for this team. There are three highly regarded freshmen big men coming in, but other than throwing a right hook at some chinaman who knows if they'll be worth a damn.
11. RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS. Ever since Quincy Douby left Rutgers hasn't been able to build any momentum. Even when they snag a great recruiting class with two Top 50 players like they did in 2008 things fall apart and both players ended up transferring before the end of their careers. That being said, a new coach and another excellent class (ranked #24 nationally and 6th in the conference by Rivals) has hope welling up once again in Jersey. If they ever get good the RAC gives them a nice home court advantage, so remember that when you're gambling.
12. SOUTH FLORIDA BULLS. You remember Anthony Crater? The point guard who came aboard at Ohio State in the same class that netted the Buckeyes B.J. Mullens and William Buford, then quit 2 months into the season after shooting 3-15 from the floor in 10 games because he didn't get to start (keep in mind OSU's guards were Evan Turner, Buford, David Lighty, Jon Diebler, and Jeremie Simmons)? He's played at USF the last two seasons and averaged less than 4 points per game both years despite playing over 25 minutes per game, and was kicked off the team in May for "violating team rules." I don't know why, but that story makes me laugh. Probably because he seemed like such a douche.
13. SETON HALL PIRATES. I don't know why I'm so drawn to Seton Hall. Maybe it's because I fell in love with Shaheen Holloway, or maybe it's because a dude I played against (and got crushed by) in high school ended up going there (Darius Lane), but I also half-root for the Pirates and actually have a Seton Hall hat somewhere. Unfortunately this year is going to be a rough one for the Pirates with Jeremy Hazell, the Big East's third leading scorer last year, and Jeff Robinson, the team's second leading scorer, both gone along with a whole bunch of supporting bits. Herb Pope is still a freaking stud with bullets in his body and Jordan Theodore can score, but there just isn't much here unless Pope goes insane. More than usual, I mean.
14. ST. JOHNS RED STORM. They would be higher, seeing as how Lavin came in and immediately grabbed a top 3 class to come play in NYC, but then things unraveled and three of the newcomers were ruled ineligible, and they just happened to be the #23, #51, and #68 recruits in the country. There's still good talent coming in, but St. John's is trying to replace essentially everybody from last year and losing those three hurts, especially because the #51 guy - Jakarr Sampson - has already transferred out (maybe the other's have too but I'm not looking it up because I've already spent too much time on this one). Lavin will turn things around in a hurry, maybe just in slightly less of a hurry than it looked. I wonder if he's gone crooked yet or if he's waiting another year.
15. PROVIDENCE FRIARS. Marshon Brooks was really, really good at scoring. He was also the rare player who was kind of a chucker, but was an efficient chucker. I'm not really sure why I'm talking about him because he's now in the NBA if there was an NBA, but it's probably because I don't know anything else about Providence. They do have two other double-digit scorers back from last year. Shrug.
16. DEPAUL BLUE DEMONS. Talk about horrible. I read somewhere that DePaul has gone 2-52 in Big East play over the last three seasons. I knew they were bad, but assumed that was a misprint and looked it up myself. Sure enough, they're 2-52. And it's not fixing to change. Despite being in the heart of Chicago, a nice high school hoops town, they can't get anybody to attend DePaul because of Dumpster Arena. I just don't know how they're going to get out of this mess. I guess they have a little momentum, what with Cleveland Melvin winning Big East Rookie of the Year last year and stealing DeJuan Marrero away from the Gophers recently, but yuck. You'd think one of Illinois, Northwestern, DePaul, or UIC would have to be good, but here we are.
At first I thought all this conference realignment stuff was kind of cool, but at this point it's just gotten completely out of hand. I don't even know who went where or who didn't or what's merging. Like that Conference USA/Mountain West merger - does that effect hoops in any way? I don't know. It's too confusing. I think it's time to just to to one big conference. Easier that way.
1. UCONN HUSKIES. How are they #1 in a tough conference despite losing Kemba Walker? Because everybody else is back, including Jeremy Lamb (who started to look like a star at the end of last year) and Alex Oriakhi (who is always solid defensively and now his offense is coming along), as well as a group of sophomores (of which Lamb is a part) who were ranked as the #20 recruiting class in the country last season by ESPN. Oh, and they have one of the best classes in the country coming in with PG Ryan Boatright (#42 rivals), SF DeAndre Daniels (#10), and C Andre Drummond (#2). Drummond is ridiculous and he's probably going to make people cry, and will likely be the #1 overall pick in next year's NBA Draft if it happens. Seriously, UCONN is a big-time threat to win back-to-back titles. Doubtful, yes, but a better chance than most.
2. SYRACUSE ORANGE. God Boeheim is just incredible - great class after great class after great class. He's followed up last year's top five class with a top 10 class this year, adding SG Michael Carter-Williams (Rivals #29 overall) and C Rakeem Christmas (#27) to last year's group that included C Fab Melo (#16), SF C.J. Fair (#94), and SG Dion Waiters (#29). Scoop Jardine and Brandon Triche will be back on the perimeter to run things and awkwardly heave the ball at the rim, and scoring machine Kris Joseph is back for more. The only real question is if Christmas (freshman) or Melo (super-subpar first year) can fill in for Rick "Automatic Double-Double" Jackson. If they can, this is a national title contender. If not, they'll be lucky to make it out of the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament.
3. LOUISVILLE CARDINALS. I have a feeling about this Louisville team, and it's not necessarily a good one. I do think they'll be good and a legit Final Four contender, but I also think they're very ripe for some ugly nights. It will basically all come down to Peyton Siva and how well he can control the offense, because with Preston Knowles gone he's now in charge of a whole bunch of talent, but a whole bunch of talent that's a little bit crazy. The Cards have everything you'd need - excellent point guard, dead-eye shooting, perimeter and interior defense, and three incoming swingmen who all rank on in Rivals Top 70 (and a center as well), so really it's going to come down to how well they mesh - and that is going to depend on Siva.
4. PITT PANTHERS. I think at some point Pitt turned itself into kind of a minor dynasty (conference only). They somehow shed the legacy of crappy overrated point guards like Brandin Knight, Carl Krauer, and LeVance Fields and are now actually acquiring good, quality players like Ashton Gibbs who is probably the best player in the conference. They do lose quite a bit with three starters (including the giant version of kid from Kid N Play which makes me sad), and Gibbs biggest help now is a guy who is already hurt and missing most/all the preseason practice time, a point guard who makes LeVance Fields look like Craig Hodges, and a former big time recruit whose failed to average more than 5 points per game in his two seasons at Pitt. But you watch, Gibbs will find a way, and Pitt will break into the top 10 at some point this year. Big fan of this kid.
5. VILLANOVA WILDCATS. Villanova is turning into Chucker University, and this year is shaping up to be no exception as Maalik Wayns looks to become the next in the recent line of all-time great chuckers following Scottie Reynolds, the two Coreys, Allen Ray, and Randy Foye. The real great news is that Wayns looks like he has a chance to be the greatest of them all. His shooting percentage of 40% last year and 3-point percentage of just 27% were some of the worst numbers any of these chuckers put up at any point in their careers, but that didn't stop Wayns from taking the third most shots (and 3-pointers) on the team behind the two Coreys. Really, the stars could be aligning for a spectacular two final years of his career. I'm so excited.
6. CINCINNATI BEARCATS. Why do I have some trouble believing in Cincy? It could be because there best player is named Yancy, but really there's a lot to like about the Bearcats this year. Besides the aforementioned Yancy Gates, their leading scorer and rebounder last year, they also return essentially every player from last year's team that knocked off a very good Missouri team in the NCAA Tournament last year, and also add Shaquille Thomas and Jermaine Sanders, two athletic wings who will fit well in Mick Cronin's hyper-defensive system. The biggest issue here will be Cashmere Wright, who is back to play the point for a third year. Except he can't shoot, turns the ball over too much, and isn't a great distributor. So I guess they got that goin' for 'em.
7. MARQUETTE EAGLES. Jimmy Butler was a do-everything type player and he's gone, but luckily for Marquette Darius Johnson-Odom is back and he's a do-everything type as well who was pretty much just as good as Butler last year and has a chance to be an absolute super star this year without having to share touches with Butler. Jae Crowder lived up to his billing as one of the better JuCo players last season, looking unstoppable on the block at times despite a shaky shooting percentage and could be a big-time player this year. The biggest key for Marquette will be the backcourt with Vander Blue coming off a disappointing freshman year where he had more turnovers than assists and shot at a worse percentage than Maalik Wayns. Junior Cadougan is serviceable but not a star, so they really need Blue to live up to his pre-college hype.
8. WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS. Joel Mazzulla, captain bricklayer himself, is gone along with their best scorer in Casey Mitchell and their best defender, or at least one of, in John Flowers. Even so, Huggy Bear will have these guys in contention for an NCAA bid because they're always going to play tough defense and Kevin Jones is back and ripe for a Big East player of the year type season. The biggest key will be Truck Bryant, who will have to pretty much main the point alone with Maz gone. Assuming he can avoid running into cars this season, WVU should be ok.
9. NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH. Obviously most of these previews are me combining my limited knowledge on these teams with what I can read, both online and in print, and trying to come up with some decent conclusions. So basically a lot of guessing. One thing I'm not guessing about, however, and I'll make it a guarantee, is that you're going to be sick of hearing about Tim Abromaitis by the end of this season. Seriously, between him and Scott Martin the Irish are going to once again be the great white hope, except now the third wheel in little Hansbrough is gone and I have this crazy feeling Abromaitis is going to have a Harangody like season, only less behemoth-y. Put on your gritty, hustly, heady, smart player shoes because it's going to be a rough year if you watch any of there games. And god help you if they actually end up good. God. Help. You.
10. GEORGETOWN HOYAS. For the last several years the Hoyas have been a big-time March threat - at least on paper - and it's been on the strength of their guard play. Unfortunately for them, they're in the habit of getting bounced to early and two of their three stud guards are now gone. The one remaining, Jason Clark, was more of the third wheel type, and will now have to become the #1 option, and basically the difference for the Hoyas between a good or bad season, because between him and Hollis Thompson - who is the only offensive big man of consequence who is returning, they're going to have to be most of the offense for this team. There are three highly regarded freshmen big men coming in, but other than throwing a right hook at some chinaman who knows if they'll be worth a damn.
11. RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS. Ever since Quincy Douby left Rutgers hasn't been able to build any momentum. Even when they snag a great recruiting class with two Top 50 players like they did in 2008 things fall apart and both players ended up transferring before the end of their careers. That being said, a new coach and another excellent class (ranked #24 nationally and 6th in the conference by Rivals) has hope welling up once again in Jersey. If they ever get good the RAC gives them a nice home court advantage, so remember that when you're gambling.
12. SOUTH FLORIDA BULLS. You remember Anthony Crater? The point guard who came aboard at Ohio State in the same class that netted the Buckeyes B.J. Mullens and William Buford, then quit 2 months into the season after shooting 3-15 from the floor in 10 games because he didn't get to start (keep in mind OSU's guards were Evan Turner, Buford, David Lighty, Jon Diebler, and Jeremie Simmons)? He's played at USF the last two seasons and averaged less than 4 points per game both years despite playing over 25 minutes per game, and was kicked off the team in May for "violating team rules." I don't know why, but that story makes me laugh. Probably because he seemed like such a douche.
13. SETON HALL PIRATES. I don't know why I'm so drawn to Seton Hall. Maybe it's because I fell in love with Shaheen Holloway, or maybe it's because a dude I played against (and got crushed by) in high school ended up going there (Darius Lane), but I also half-root for the Pirates and actually have a Seton Hall hat somewhere. Unfortunately this year is going to be a rough one for the Pirates with Jeremy Hazell, the Big East's third leading scorer last year, and Jeff Robinson, the team's second leading scorer, both gone along with a whole bunch of supporting bits. Herb Pope is still a freaking stud with bullets in his body and Jordan Theodore can score, but there just isn't much here unless Pope goes insane. More than usual, I mean.
14. ST. JOHNS RED STORM. They would be higher, seeing as how Lavin came in and immediately grabbed a top 3 class to come play in NYC, but then things unraveled and three of the newcomers were ruled ineligible, and they just happened to be the #23, #51, and #68 recruits in the country. There's still good talent coming in, but St. John's is trying to replace essentially everybody from last year and losing those three hurts, especially because the #51 guy - Jakarr Sampson - has already transferred out (maybe the other's have too but I'm not looking it up because I've already spent too much time on this one). Lavin will turn things around in a hurry, maybe just in slightly less of a hurry than it looked. I wonder if he's gone crooked yet or if he's waiting another year.
15. PROVIDENCE FRIARS. Marshon Brooks was really, really good at scoring. He was also the rare player who was kind of a chucker, but was an efficient chucker. I'm not really sure why I'm talking about him because he's now in the NBA if there was an NBA, but it's probably because I don't know anything else about Providence. They do have two other double-digit scorers back from last year. Shrug.
16. DEPAUL BLUE DEMONS. Talk about horrible. I read somewhere that DePaul has gone 2-52 in Big East play over the last three seasons. I knew they were bad, but assumed that was a misprint and looked it up myself. Sure enough, they're 2-52. And it's not fixing to change. Despite being in the heart of Chicago, a nice high school hoops town, they can't get anybody to attend DePaul because of Dumpster Arena. I just don't know how they're going to get out of this mess. I guess they have a little momentum, what with Cleveland Melvin winning Big East Rookie of the Year last year and stealing DeJuan Marrero away from the Gophers recently, but yuck. You'd think one of Illinois, Northwestern, DePaul, or UIC would have to be good, but here we are.
Wednesday, October 20, 2010
College Basketball Preview: The Big East
1. Villanova Wildcats. I'm very glad Scottie Reynolds, one of my top five most hated college players of all-time, is gone, because I can go back to not hating Villanova right as they look to finally be balanced enough to be a real national title contender - and I mean a real threat, not a media-driven threat that was obviously going to flame out early - thanks again to Reynolds. Perimeter driven for years, this year Jay Wright and the Wildcats will have a balanced attack. Antonio Pena has made a huge leap from where he was as a freshman to become an excellent inside scoring threat and two sophomores (Mouphtaou Yarou and Isaiah Armwood) were highly regarding coming in last year and had very nice freshman years - and of course Nova is loaded with guards as they always are. So I guess is what I'm saying is we actually have to worry about Villanova and I don't like it one bit.
2. Syracuse Orange. The Orange lose a lot - again, but Jim Boeheim just reloads - again. Losing Andy Rautins, Arinze Onuaku, and Wes Johnson would cripple most teams and send them into rebuilding mode, but not the Cuse. Fab Melo (#2 center) is a better Onuaku, and SF C.J. Fair (#94 overall) and SG Dion Waiters (#29 overall) may not be the equal of Johnson and Rautins, but they'll ease their loss. Biggest keys to Orange success will be how Kris Joseph develops, and he is looking like he could end up being the next Syracuse star, and finding a shooter to replace Rautins and Johnson, who made 61% of the team's three balls between them at a combined 41% clip. This is where Mookie Jones (45% last year) can fit in. Plus, you (and everyone) need a little more Mookie in your life. You know it's true.
3. Pittsburgh Panthers. I've never seen a Pitt team I liked, and I'm not going to start now, but it's impossible to deny that they look pretty loaded this year. The real question is if Ashton Gibbs is a bonifide star or just another in a long line of Pitt point guards who got a disproportionate amount of praise for their skill level and couldn't shoot. Look it up, but from Brandin Knight to Carl Krauser to Levance Fields, Pitt always has point guards who couldn't hit a jump shot if they were in an empty gym, but were universally loved and praised by the media. I'm afraid Gibbs, who shot under 40% from the field last year, is yet another one and is going to cause my anti-Pitt rage to fire itself back up again, despite all the anti-rage medication I'm on.
4. Georgetown Hoyas. Georgetown is going to look a little weird this year because they're going to be missing the most Georgetowny thing - a good, big center. From Ewing, Mourning, and Mutumbo to Hibbert and Monroe, they always seem to have a good center (not counting all those years between Mutumbo and Hibbert), but not this year. What they do have, however, is a trio of very good guards in Chris Wright (scored 20 in 3 of team's last 4 games), Austin Freeman (leading scorer last year at 16.5 per game), and Jason Clark (42% three-point shooter). It seems like the Hoyas have disappointed every year since their Final Four year, so maybe this is another breakthrough coming since they say guard play is the key in March. And, in case you're really concerned, they did sign 6-10 Moses Abraham, the #11 center in the country for 2010, and he could eventually develop into a top flight center in a year or two. Long live tradition.
5. West Virginia Mountaineers. Devin Ebanks and Da'Sean Butler are massive losses, particularly Butler who wasn't only their best player but also a stone cold end of game killer, but there's still enough here to make the Mountaineers an NCAA Tournament team. Kevin Jones was basically Butler's understudy all year and is a very similar player who I expect to take a big leap forward and help lead this team, and they get both of their point guards back in Joel Mazzulla (who can't shoot) and Truck Bryant (who seems to alternate between being injured and being in trouble). There are a lot of questions on the interior and a lot of pressure will be on John Flowers and Deniz Kilicli (and Kevin Noreen, who is from Minneapolis and the Gophers had zero interest in so that will be interesting to see how that works out). Also Noah Cottrill (freshman PG) looks just like the Professor and as such I love him.
6. St. Johns Red Storm. Might be a little high, but optimism reigns in NYC for a once proud program who has fallen into irrelevance, and I'm buying into it. New coach Steve Lavin finally left the booth for this job, and he's hit the ground running already landing a couple of big time recruits for 2011. But don't think the only optimism is for the future, this year's squad returns nearly everybody from last year's NIT team, and they have a good mix of inside and outside scoring. I'm not saying we're heading back to the glory days of Felipe Lopez and Zendon Hamilton or anything, but don't be surprised if they surprise some people (but not you because I just told you they'd be good.)
7. Connecticut Huskies. I've got a weird feeling about UCONN, and I am starting to think their run as a top flight college hoops program might be coming to a close. Now, they're still good now and should make the NCAA Tournament this year (although they should have been one of the best team's in the country last year and that didn't exactly work out) and they continue to get good recruiting classes, but there's a lot going on here. Calhoun's health issues, the new NCAA infractions (that have led to two assistant coaches getting canend), Ater Majok leaving...I don't know, it just feels like bad news coming, whether the NCAA hammers the program or not. In any case, they'll be good this year and Kemba Walker is a stud. At least until he gets arrested.
8. Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Better without Harangody? Yep, and if you recall, they made their late run at an NCAA bid when he was on the shelf last year, winning their last four regular season games, including wins over 2 ranked teams and 2 bubble teams, then winning two in the Big East tournament to grab an NCAA berth. This year white guy central and top two players Ben Hansbrough and Tim Abromaitis will add a third top white guy in Purdue transfer Scott Martin. You may remember him as the fourth member of Purdue's E'Twaun Moore/JaJuan Johnson/Robbie Hummel class who was actually ranked similarly to Hummel by Rivals. He had a solid freshman year, then transferred (and had to sit out), and then blew out his knee before last season began, so this will actually be his first action since 2007 (much like my good friend Theory). The biggest question, however, is can they find a point guard to get all these white shooters the ball?
9. Marquette Eagles. Marquette was supposed to be down last year after losing their kick-ass guard trio, but Lazar Hayward (T-Wolves, what up?) was a beast and Jimmy Butler made huge leaps and helped carry the Golden Eagles to the NCAA Tournament where they just barely dropped their first round game to Washington. Hayward is gone, as are starting guards David Cubillon and Maurice Acker, but Butler returns along with third leading scorer Darius Johnson-Odom. If they get can good point play from either sophomore Junior Cadougan or freshman Vander Blue they might surprise some people. As long as they beat Wisconsin (they play every year, don't they?) I'll be happy. Go to hell, Badgers, go to hell.
10. Seton Hall Pirates. This might actually be a bit low for the Pirates, as I think they have real sleeper potential - in the conference, not necessarily nationally - but they also have a high chance of implosion as well. Herb Pope is as talented as anyone but is essentially a walking injury risk, Jeremy Hazell is a scoring machine but is also a tremendous chucker, Keon Lawrence was very good for Missouri but had a terrible year last season in his first as a Pirate, and Jeff Robinson - well, I have nothing really to say there. But the moral of the story is the Pirates have their top four players back, but with a new coach and some volatile personalities this story can go either way. I'm rooting for things to go well, I do own a Seton Hall hat after all, but it will be interesting. Last year, coach Bobby Gonzalez played a wide-open, uptempo style, but new coach Kevin Willard's Iona was a slow-down, deliberate team. Interesting to see how that all ends up shaking out.
11. Louisville Cardinals. Another down year is in the cards for the cards before things start to turn around with a great class Pitino is bringing in for 2011. Louisville loses its top three scorers from last season in Samardo Samuels, Edgar Sosa, and Jerry Smith, along with fellow starter , leaving the team with a whole lot of role players and no star power. I don't know, I guess Terrence Jennings was supposed to be the next Earl Clark/Terrence Williams/Francisco Garcia, but man Pitino already has a very good 2011 class coming in, even after missing on a couple of key targets, so this is going to be a transition year and probably not very fun. Except maybe for Rick, assuming he finds another team employee's wife to hump around with.
12. South Florida Bulls. Dominique Jones was completely awesome, and losing him is a big blow, but there's still some talent here in Tampa. Gus Gilchrist and Jarrid Famous are both over 6-10, and both are excellent interior scorers and good rebounders. That kind of size and talent is going to give some teams fits. Former Ohio State problem child Anthony Crater is still getting in trouble now that he's a Bull, and didn't exactly light it up when he did play, but he was once a pretty highly regarded point guard coming out of high school with a lot of good offers from a lot of good programs. You know what they always say, if you give a headcase enough chances, he will always come through for you in the end and never, ever end up a huge disappointment.
13. Cincinnati Bearcats. This was my sleeper team last year, but their inability to close in tight games killed them and they ended up in the NIT (where they lost to freaking Dayton) instead of in the Final Four. With Lance Stephenson and Deonta Vaughn now gone, there are major holes to fill and with the incoming class very meh it's going to be up to the returnees if Cincy is going to be something other than a cellar dweller. I watched a lot of Cincy ball last year, since I had a crush on them, and center Yancy Gates is the only one who was remotely impressive last year. Other than that they are a bunch of solid players but no real stars, and "point guard" Cashmere Wright was awful. Remember Kerwin Fleming? Throw out that improbable run he had in the NIT after Monson let him play streetball and you have Wright, except he's expected to start and lead the team. Yeah.
14. Providence Friars. In reading up on the Big East, I discovered that this team was really, really bad defensively last year. In fact, they ranked 237th in Ken Pomeroy's defensive efficiency ratings, which put them at dead last amongst all BCS conference teams. They accomplished this by allowing opponents to shoot 52.2% on 2-pointers (327th), only turning their opponents over 18% of the time (290th), and allowing an offensive rebound on 36.6% of their opponents misses (309th). So, to recap, the Friars almost always allowed their opponent to get a shot off, and it almost always went in, and when it didn't go in, they usually allowed them to have a second chance at it. That is not good. On the bright side, their offense was actually quite efficient. This will all probably happen again.
15. Rutgers Scarlet Knights. The big signing of Mike Rosario a few couple years ago didn't exactly turn the Scarlet Knights around, and now he's transferred out to Florida and the team's second best player, Greg Echenique has left as well to go play at Creighton. New coach Mike Rice has already made some big moves on the recruiting trail and things are looking up, but this year will be tough with nobody over 6-8 on the roster. Talented sophomore Dane Miller is back, but Rutgers will struggle to win more than a couple of games in conference play this year, the talent level just isn't there, despite an awesome home arena. Quincy Douby is rolling over in his grave.
16. DePaul Blue Demons. The team with the worst arena in college ball will once again be the worst major college team in the land, except I think this makes three years in a row. Things might be looking up a bit with a new coach in Oliver Purnell, who has built programs up before (Dayton/Clemson), but this year is going to be another rough one. Last year the team was built around two players (Mac Koshwal and Will Walker) who scored over half the team's points on a per game basis, and now both are gone. With not much here and a less than imposing incoming class, it's going to be a rough year. These guys are like the football Minnesota Gophers of college basketball.
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2. Syracuse Orange. The Orange lose a lot - again, but Jim Boeheim just reloads - again. Losing Andy Rautins, Arinze Onuaku, and Wes Johnson would cripple most teams and send them into rebuilding mode, but not the Cuse. Fab Melo (#2 center) is a better Onuaku, and SF C.J. Fair (#94 overall) and SG Dion Waiters (#29 overall) may not be the equal of Johnson and Rautins, but they'll ease their loss. Biggest keys to Orange success will be how Kris Joseph develops, and he is looking like he could end up being the next Syracuse star, and finding a shooter to replace Rautins and Johnson, who made 61% of the team's three balls between them at a combined 41% clip. This is where Mookie Jones (45% last year) can fit in. Plus, you (and everyone) need a little more Mookie in your life. You know it's true.
3. Pittsburgh Panthers. I've never seen a Pitt team I liked, and I'm not going to start now, but it's impossible to deny that they look pretty loaded this year. The real question is if Ashton Gibbs is a bonifide star or just another in a long line of Pitt point guards who got a disproportionate amount of praise for their skill level and couldn't shoot. Look it up, but from Brandin Knight to Carl Krauser to Levance Fields, Pitt always has point guards who couldn't hit a jump shot if they were in an empty gym, but were universally loved and praised by the media. I'm afraid Gibbs, who shot under 40% from the field last year, is yet another one and is going to cause my anti-Pitt rage to fire itself back up again, despite all the anti-rage medication I'm on.
4. Georgetown Hoyas. Georgetown is going to look a little weird this year because they're going to be missing the most Georgetowny thing - a good, big center. From Ewing, Mourning, and Mutumbo to Hibbert and Monroe, they always seem to have a good center (not counting all those years between Mutumbo and Hibbert), but not this year. What they do have, however, is a trio of very good guards in Chris Wright (scored 20 in 3 of team's last 4 games), Austin Freeman (leading scorer last year at 16.5 per game), and Jason Clark (42% three-point shooter). It seems like the Hoyas have disappointed every year since their Final Four year, so maybe this is another breakthrough coming since they say guard play is the key in March. And, in case you're really concerned, they did sign 6-10 Moses Abraham, the #11 center in the country for 2010, and he could eventually develop into a top flight center in a year or two. Long live tradition.
5. West Virginia Mountaineers. Devin Ebanks and Da'Sean Butler are massive losses, particularly Butler who wasn't only their best player but also a stone cold end of game killer, but there's still enough here to make the Mountaineers an NCAA Tournament team. Kevin Jones was basically Butler's understudy all year and is a very similar player who I expect to take a big leap forward and help lead this team, and they get both of their point guards back in Joel Mazzulla (who can't shoot) and Truck Bryant (who seems to alternate between being injured and being in trouble). There are a lot of questions on the interior and a lot of pressure will be on John Flowers and Deniz Kilicli (and Kevin Noreen, who is from Minneapolis and the Gophers had zero interest in so that will be interesting to see how that works out). Also Noah Cottrill (freshman PG) looks just like the Professor and as such I love him.
6. St. Johns Red Storm. Might be a little high, but optimism reigns in NYC for a once proud program who has fallen into irrelevance, and I'm buying into it. New coach Steve Lavin finally left the booth for this job, and he's hit the ground running already landing a couple of big time recruits for 2011. But don't think the only optimism is for the future, this year's squad returns nearly everybody from last year's NIT team, and they have a good mix of inside and outside scoring. I'm not saying we're heading back to the glory days of Felipe Lopez and Zendon Hamilton or anything, but don't be surprised if they surprise some people (but not you because I just told you they'd be good.)
7. Connecticut Huskies. I've got a weird feeling about UCONN, and I am starting to think their run as a top flight college hoops program might be coming to a close. Now, they're still good now and should make the NCAA Tournament this year (although they should have been one of the best team's in the country last year and that didn't exactly work out) and they continue to get good recruiting classes, but there's a lot going on here. Calhoun's health issues, the new NCAA infractions (that have led to two assistant coaches getting canend), Ater Majok leaving...I don't know, it just feels like bad news coming, whether the NCAA hammers the program or not. In any case, they'll be good this year and Kemba Walker is a stud. At least until he gets arrested.
8. Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Better without Harangody? Yep, and if you recall, they made their late run at an NCAA bid when he was on the shelf last year, winning their last four regular season games, including wins over 2 ranked teams and 2 bubble teams, then winning two in the Big East tournament to grab an NCAA berth. This year white guy central and top two players Ben Hansbrough and Tim Abromaitis will add a third top white guy in Purdue transfer Scott Martin. You may remember him as the fourth member of Purdue's E'Twaun Moore/JaJuan Johnson/Robbie Hummel class who was actually ranked similarly to Hummel by Rivals. He had a solid freshman year, then transferred (and had to sit out), and then blew out his knee before last season began, so this will actually be his first action since 2007 (much like my good friend Theory). The biggest question, however, is can they find a point guard to get all these white shooters the ball?
9. Marquette Eagles. Marquette was supposed to be down last year after losing their kick-ass guard trio, but Lazar Hayward (T-Wolves, what up?) was a beast and Jimmy Butler made huge leaps and helped carry the Golden Eagles to the NCAA Tournament where they just barely dropped their first round game to Washington. Hayward is gone, as are starting guards David Cubillon and Maurice Acker, but Butler returns along with third leading scorer Darius Johnson-Odom. If they get can good point play from either sophomore Junior Cadougan or freshman Vander Blue they might surprise some people. As long as they beat Wisconsin (they play every year, don't they?) I'll be happy. Go to hell, Badgers, go to hell.
10. Seton Hall Pirates. This might actually be a bit low for the Pirates, as I think they have real sleeper potential - in the conference, not necessarily nationally - but they also have a high chance of implosion as well. Herb Pope is as talented as anyone but is essentially a walking injury risk, Jeremy Hazell is a scoring machine but is also a tremendous chucker, Keon Lawrence was very good for Missouri but had a terrible year last season in his first as a Pirate, and Jeff Robinson - well, I have nothing really to say there. But the moral of the story is the Pirates have their top four players back, but with a new coach and some volatile personalities this story can go either way. I'm rooting for things to go well, I do own a Seton Hall hat after all, but it will be interesting. Last year, coach Bobby Gonzalez played a wide-open, uptempo style, but new coach Kevin Willard's Iona was a slow-down, deliberate team. Interesting to see how that all ends up shaking out.
11. Louisville Cardinals. Another down year is in the cards for the cards before things start to turn around with a great class Pitino is bringing in for 2011. Louisville loses its top three scorers from last season in Samardo Samuels, Edgar Sosa, and Jerry Smith, along with fellow starter , leaving the team with a whole lot of role players and no star power. I don't know, I guess Terrence Jennings was supposed to be the next Earl Clark/Terrence Williams/Francisco Garcia, but man Pitino already has a very good 2011 class coming in, even after missing on a couple of key targets, so this is going to be a transition year and probably not very fun. Except maybe for Rick, assuming he finds another team employee's wife to hump around with.
14. Providence Friars. In reading up on the Big East, I discovered that this team was really, really bad defensively last year. In fact, they ranked 237th in Ken Pomeroy's defensive efficiency ratings, which put them at dead last amongst all BCS conference teams. They accomplished this by allowing opponents to shoot 52.2% on 2-pointers (327th), only turning their opponents over 18% of the time (290th), and allowing an offensive rebound on 36.6% of their opponents misses (309th). So, to recap, the Friars almost always allowed their opponent to get a shot off, and it almost always went in, and when it didn't go in, they usually allowed them to have a second chance at it. That is not good. On the bright side, their offense was actually quite efficient. This will all probably happen again.
15. Rutgers Scarlet Knights. The big signing of Mike Rosario a few couple years ago didn't exactly turn the Scarlet Knights around, and now he's transferred out to Florida and the team's second best player, Greg Echenique has left as well to go play at Creighton. New coach Mike Rice has already made some big moves on the recruiting trail and things are looking up, but this year will be tough with nobody over 6-8 on the roster. Talented sophomore Dane Miller is back, but Rutgers will struggle to win more than a couple of games in conference play this year, the talent level just isn't there, despite an awesome home arena. Quincy Douby is rolling over in his grave.
16. DePaul Blue Demons. The team with the worst arena in college ball will once again be the worst major college team in the land, except I think this makes three years in a row. Things might be looking up a bit with a new coach in Oliver Purnell, who has built programs up before (Dayton/Clemson), but this year is going to be another rough one. Last year the team was built around two players (Mac Koshwal and Will Walker) who scored over half the team's points on a per game basis, and now both are gone. With not much here and a less than imposing incoming class, it's going to be a rough year. These guys are like the football Minnesota Gophers of college basketball.
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Monday, January 4, 2010
Week In Review: 1/4/2009
God how bad does it suck to be back at work? This is the worst day of the year, every year. At least we had a great week for sports. Basketball teams are kicking off conference play, and we get an awesome string of bowl games including Ohio State finally standing up for itself and winning a BCS game, Joe Paterno and Bobby Bowden winning bowl games on the same day, and one of the most entertaining football games I can ever remember seeing in a the Outback Bowl. Very cool stuff. Well, except for the Sugar Bowl. That was so bad I can't even bring myself to list Cincinnati as a team that sucked. I'm going to give them a pass since their coach ripped their collective heart out - that and the fact they had no chance walking in, totally different talent levels. Like Minnesota vs. Iowa in basketball (or football, but reversed).
And speaking of the Gophers, that was a good win on Saturday. They jumped out to a big lead against an inferior team, and although their were a couple of times they almost let the Hawks drift back into it, once they did they put the throttle down again and just never let Iowa (or the crowed, sparse as it was) believe they had a chance. Obviously it would have been better to just blow them out by thirty, but I have no real complaints. Good start to the season, but I will feel better once we get to see them play a good team.
I also want to take a minute to mention Devan Bawinkel, who might be the most fascinating player I have seen play since Reggie Holmes. Did you know that Bawinkel ? How does that happen? Don't you have to accidentally get a layup once in a while? And it's not like this is new. Last year he attempted 144 shots, 139 of which were from three, and his freshman year he attempted 40, 37 from three. That means in his career, out of shots, he's only attempted a shot inside the three point line 8 times. That's amazing. How do you do that? Does he ever cross the three-point line on offense? Ever? What if there was a rebound that came bouncing to him, but to get it he would have to step forward and cross the line? Would he do it, or just sit and wait behind the line even if it meant an opponent was going to get the board? So bizarre.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Freddie Barnes. Bowling Green lost the Humanitarian Bowl to Idaho by one in a hell of a game, but who cares? Let's talk Barnes instead, who had an insane game (17 catches for 219 yards and 3 touchdowns) which gave him the record for catches in a single-season in D-I college football with 155 this year (previous record holder was some donk who played for Houston with 142). You may be thinking, like me, that 155 catches in a season is ridiculous since they only play like 13 games, and you're right - it is completely insane. It includes a 22 catch performance against Kent State, a 17 catch outing against Marshall, and a 15 grab day against Troy. Seriously, suddenly the whole "Weber to Decker" thing doesn't seem as ridiculous. You're probably, again like me, wondering what his pro prospects look like. According to what I'm seeing, he is projected to go around the fifth round with third round upside due to his size and projection as a slot receiver. I don't know, I feel like somebody is going to get a steal here.
2. New Mexico. I ripped these guys last week for choking on their high ranking and dropping a game to Oral Roberts, but they bounced back in a big way this week with two very good wins - over Dayton and over Texas Tech. Even though Tech is starting to look a tad overrated and Dayton may always have been, these are still very good wins that are going to shine come selection sunday. Now at 14-1 with those two wins plus wins over Cal and Texas A&M, New Mexico is nearly a lock for the NCAA Tournament. If they win their home games in conference and beat crappy teams like Wyoming, Air Force, and TCU on the road, that puts them at 11-5 in the MWC and 25-6 overall - like I said, a lock. And I finally got to watch them play - this team could make some noise in March, don't sleep on them.
3. Cincinnati. You should know by now I am following Cincinnati closely (now at to win the whole thing) so you're going to get frequent updates when things go well or fall apart, and this week was a very good week for the Bearcats. On Wednesday they pulled out a very nice upset win over UCONN on two free-throws by Lance Stephenson with less than a second left, and they followed it up on Saturday with a win at Rutgers, never an easy place to play. I've said it here before and I'll say it again - this a good team with a nice inside/outside balance, a lot of depth, a go-to shooter, and a freshman in Stephenson who could be this year's Carmelo Anthony. If the point guard play works itself out (whether it's Deonta Vaughn sliding over from the two or freshman Cashmere Wright) they are going to be a huge threat in March.
4. Oregon. It pretty much goes against everything I believe in to praise a Pac-10 team, but the Ducks deserve it after going into Washington and sweeping the two schools this week. The win over Washington State is good, but the win over Washington is great. The Huskies were ranked 16th and considered the favorite to win the Pac-10, and Oregon came in there and didn't just win, they completely controlled the game and blew the doors off the Huskies. The inside/outside attack with guards Tajuan Porter and Malcolm Armstead and center Michael Dunigan is working really well right now, even though it will inevitably fall apart because Porter is far too much of a chucker. Maybe this will be the third place team in the Pac. Who knows, they all suck but somebody has to finish third.
5. William & Mary. The Tribe has now won ten straight, and this might have been their best week yet with a win at Maryland and then following it up with a road win at league title contender Hofstra. This now gives W&M wins over not only Maryland, but also Richmond and Wake Forest, and their only losses are to UCONN and a pretty good Harvard squad. I don't know how many games they'll need to win in the Colonial, but their out of conference resume reads like an NCAA squad. If you want more info (and some fluff) about these guys and their boring ass Princeton offense, Andy Katz has a piece on the Tribe here.
WHO SUCKED
1. Case Keenum. I've resisted putting Keenum in the "awesome" category week after week because despite games like his 536 yard 5-TD performance against UTEP and his 559 and 5 game versus Southern Miss (or any of his other three 500+ yard days or two other five touchdown days) it was easy to dismiss because he plays for Houston. Houston, if you recall, is the team that runs a system that made David Klingler and Andre Ware stat monsters, so who knows if Keenum was legit, especially since the Cougars didn't really play any top-level opponents outside of a game vs. Oklahoma State (where Keenum put up a more legit 366-3). Enter Air Force, Houston's opponent in Armed Forces Bowl, and it would appear that Keenum has been figured out and he might just fall in line with that proud tradition of Houston QBs. In the Bowl (a 47-20 Air Force win), he threw for a season low 222 yards, completing a season low 58.5% of his passes, and tied a bowl record with 6 interceptions after throwing just nine all season. The good news for Houston fans is that he's only a junior, so he'll be back to rape a bunch of inferior opponents and put up ridiculous video game numbers for another year.
2. LaSalle. Whoa did I overrate these guys this year. I think I picked them at #2 in the Atlantic 10, and they've rewarded my faith by becoming the suckiest bunch of sucks who ever sucked. Really, in a year where the A-10 is coming up absolutely huge they've done a damn thing, losing every meaningful game and this week bottoming out with an 0-2 week with losses to Cornell (not that bad) and Binghampton (maybe the most embarrassing loss ever). That was just the Bearcats fifth win this season against ten losses, with two of those wins over non D-I teams and another over 1-11 Maris. Truly awful. The Explorers are going to get steamrolled in conference.
3. Houston. I believe the Cougars were supposed to be one of a group of team's vying to become the first team to win Conference USA since Memphis's incredible cheating-fueled run, but they have done nothing but torpedo their chances, and this week may have been the straw that broke Tom Penders's back. Just a real bang-up job this week, losing all three games they played. The loss to Iowa State is no big whoop, but the loss to Louisiana Tech is kind of an eyebrow raiser and the loss to UT-San Antonio is completely unacceptable. They've basically eliminated any chance they had of an at-large, short of running the C-USA table, by being a terrible, terrible defensive team (327th in the nation in defending two point field goals). They do have two big time scorers, including leading D-I scorer Aubrey Coleman at 25.5 per game, and as a team they have a good 1.6 Assist/Turnover ratio, but unless they start playing some defense the CBI is the best they can hope for.
4. Seton Hall. Oh, the Hall, such a trendy pick to contend in the Big East (not by me though, you'll see I said they were bad). They started out 9-1, but had no quality wins and were basically the definition of a paper tiger. They started out the conference slate with two home games and had chances to win both, but let West Virginia and Syracuse escape with victories, and then followed that up by blowing a good chance to get a quality non-conference victory by losing to Virginia Tech (and giving up 103 points in the process, including 23 in overtime). They aren't completely horrible, but in a better than expected Big East they're going to have to win every game they should and a few they shouldn't if they're going to get a bid. As it stands now their best win (and only win vs. a top 100 team) is against Cornell.
5. College Kickers. Holy crap are some of these guys awful. I watched the kicker from Northwestern miss three field goals and the kicker from ECU miss four. No wonder there are so few good kickers in the NFL - they have nothing to choose from. Is it really that hard? It can't be, considering I have no kicking in my background and yet was able to make a 40-yard field goal at the Rose Bowl a couple of years ago. Yes, that's right, I made a 40 yard field goal at the Rose Bowl. I still have eligibility. Brewster -> call me.
It was quite tough to narrow down the field to just five entities that sucked this week, honorable mentions go to Texas Tech for almost losing to McNeese State and for the whole Leach debacle, Syracuse for losing to a crappy Pitt team, Cincinnati football for getting their big shot and just getting destroyed, Nothern Illinois for getting rolled by South Florida and extending the MAC's bowl losing streak to something like 15, Boston College for losing to Maine (Maine!), Tennessee for having four hoop players arrested for stealing cars with guns and drugs or something (I didn't really read the story), Arizona State and USC for combining to barely score 100 points combined (and USC for being cheaters), Ryan Mallet for being the worst QB ever, Ohio State for failing to beat a bad, bad Michigan team when all they need to do is win the games they are supposed to and wait for Evan Turner to come back, and finally the gopher football team just for existing.
That was depressing. To cheer you up here is the video of Tiny Gallon exploding the backboard at Gonzaga. I was watching this live and this was quite unexpected to say the least.
And speaking of the Gophers, that was a good win on Saturday. They jumped out to a big lead against an inferior team, and although their were a couple of times they almost let the Hawks drift back into it, once they did they put the throttle down again and just never let Iowa (or the crowed, sparse as it was) believe they had a chance. Obviously it would have been better to just blow them out by thirty, but I have no real complaints. Good start to the season, but I will feel better once we get to see them play a good team.
I also want to take a minute to mention Devan Bawinkel, who might be the most fascinating player I have seen play since Reggie Holmes. Did you know that Bawinkel ? How does that happen? Don't you have to accidentally get a layup once in a while? And it's not like this is new. Last year he attempted 144 shots, 139 of which were from three, and his freshman year he attempted 40, 37 from three. That means in his career, out of shots, he's only attempted a shot inside the three point line 8 times. That's amazing. How do you do that? Does he ever cross the three-point line on offense? Ever? What if there was a rebound that came bouncing to him, but to get it he would have to step forward and cross the line? Would he do it, or just sit and wait behind the line even if it meant an opponent was going to get the board? So bizarre.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Freddie Barnes. Bowling Green lost the Humanitarian Bowl to Idaho by one in a hell of a game, but who cares? Let's talk Barnes instead, who had an insane game (17 catches for 219 yards and 3 touchdowns) which gave him the record for catches in a single-season in D-I college football with 155 this year (previous record holder was some donk who played for Houston with 142). You may be thinking, like me, that 155 catches in a season is ridiculous since they only play like 13 games, and you're right - it is completely insane. It includes a 22 catch performance against Kent State, a 17 catch outing against Marshall, and a 15 grab day against Troy. Seriously, suddenly the whole "Weber to Decker" thing doesn't seem as ridiculous. You're probably, again like me, wondering what his pro prospects look like. According to what I'm seeing, he is projected to go around the fifth round with third round upside due to his size and projection as a slot receiver. I don't know, I feel like somebody is going to get a steal here.
2. New Mexico. I ripped these guys last week for choking on their high ranking and dropping a game to Oral Roberts, but they bounced back in a big way this week with two very good wins - over Dayton and over Texas Tech. Even though Tech is starting to look a tad overrated and Dayton may always have been, these are still very good wins that are going to shine come selection sunday. Now at 14-1 with those two wins plus wins over Cal and Texas A&M, New Mexico is nearly a lock for the NCAA Tournament. If they win their home games in conference and beat crappy teams like Wyoming, Air Force, and TCU on the road, that puts them at 11-5 in the MWC and 25-6 overall - like I said, a lock. And I finally got to watch them play - this team could make some noise in March, don't sleep on them.
3. Cincinnati. You should know by now I am following Cincinnati closely (now at to win the whole thing) so you're going to get frequent updates when things go well or fall apart, and this week was a very good week for the Bearcats. On Wednesday they pulled out a very nice upset win over UCONN on two free-throws by Lance Stephenson with less than a second left, and they followed it up on Saturday with a win at Rutgers, never an easy place to play. I've said it here before and I'll say it again - this a good team with a nice inside/outside balance, a lot of depth, a go-to shooter, and a freshman in Stephenson who could be this year's Carmelo Anthony. If the point guard play works itself out (whether it's Deonta Vaughn sliding over from the two or freshman Cashmere Wright) they are going to be a huge threat in March.
4. Oregon. It pretty much goes against everything I believe in to praise a Pac-10 team, but the Ducks deserve it after going into Washington and sweeping the two schools this week. The win over Washington State is good, but the win over Washington is great. The Huskies were ranked 16th and considered the favorite to win the Pac-10, and Oregon came in there and didn't just win, they completely controlled the game and blew the doors off the Huskies. The inside/outside attack with guards Tajuan Porter and Malcolm Armstead and center Michael Dunigan is working really well right now, even though it will inevitably fall apart because Porter is far too much of a chucker. Maybe this will be the third place team in the Pac. Who knows, they all suck but somebody has to finish third.
5. William & Mary. The Tribe has now won ten straight, and this might have been their best week yet with a win at Maryland and then following it up with a road win at league title contender Hofstra. This now gives W&M wins over not only Maryland, but also Richmond and Wake Forest, and their only losses are to UCONN and a pretty good Harvard squad. I don't know how many games they'll need to win in the Colonial, but their out of conference resume reads like an NCAA squad. If you want more info (and some fluff) about these guys and their boring ass Princeton offense, Andy Katz has a piece on the Tribe here.
WHO SUCKED
1. Case Keenum. I've resisted putting Keenum in the "awesome" category week after week because despite games like his 536 yard 5-TD performance against UTEP and his 559 and 5 game versus Southern Miss (or any of his other three 500+ yard days or two other five touchdown days) it was easy to dismiss because he plays for Houston. Houston, if you recall, is the team that runs a system that made David Klingler and Andre Ware stat monsters, so who knows if Keenum was legit, especially since the Cougars didn't really play any top-level opponents outside of a game vs. Oklahoma State (where Keenum put up a more legit 366-3). Enter Air Force, Houston's opponent in Armed Forces Bowl, and it would appear that Keenum has been figured out and he might just fall in line with that proud tradition of Houston QBs. In the Bowl (a 47-20 Air Force win), he threw for a season low 222 yards, completing a season low 58.5% of his passes, and tied a bowl record with 6 interceptions after throwing just nine all season. The good news for Houston fans is that he's only a junior, so he'll be back to rape a bunch of inferior opponents and put up ridiculous video game numbers for another year.
2. LaSalle. Whoa did I overrate these guys this year. I think I picked them at #2 in the Atlantic 10, and they've rewarded my faith by becoming the suckiest bunch of sucks who ever sucked. Really, in a year where the A-10 is coming up absolutely huge they've done a damn thing, losing every meaningful game and this week bottoming out with an 0-2 week with losses to Cornell (not that bad) and Binghampton (maybe the most embarrassing loss ever). That was just the Bearcats fifth win this season against ten losses, with two of those wins over non D-I teams and another over 1-11 Maris. Truly awful. The Explorers are going to get steamrolled in conference.
3. Houston. I believe the Cougars were supposed to be one of a group of team's vying to become the first team to win Conference USA since Memphis's incredible cheating-fueled run, but they have done nothing but torpedo their chances, and this week may have been the straw that broke Tom Penders's back. Just a real bang-up job this week, losing all three games they played. The loss to Iowa State is no big whoop, but the loss to Louisiana Tech is kind of an eyebrow raiser and the loss to UT-San Antonio is completely unacceptable. They've basically eliminated any chance they had of an at-large, short of running the C-USA table, by being a terrible, terrible defensive team (327th in the nation in defending two point field goals). They do have two big time scorers, including leading D-I scorer Aubrey Coleman at 25.5 per game, and as a team they have a good 1.6 Assist/Turnover ratio, but unless they start playing some defense the CBI is the best they can hope for.
4. Seton Hall. Oh, the Hall, such a trendy pick to contend in the Big East (not by me though, you'll see I said they were bad). They started out 9-1, but had no quality wins and were basically the definition of a paper tiger. They started out the conference slate with two home games and had chances to win both, but let West Virginia and Syracuse escape with victories, and then followed that up by blowing a good chance to get a quality non-conference victory by losing to Virginia Tech (and giving up 103 points in the process, including 23 in overtime). They aren't completely horrible, but in a better than expected Big East they're going to have to win every game they should and a few they shouldn't if they're going to get a bid. As it stands now their best win (and only win vs. a top 100 team) is against Cornell.
5. College Kickers. Holy crap are some of these guys awful. I watched the kicker from Northwestern miss three field goals and the kicker from ECU miss four. No wonder there are so few good kickers in the NFL - they have nothing to choose from. Is it really that hard? It can't be, considering I have no kicking in my background and yet was able to make a 40-yard field goal at the Rose Bowl a couple of years ago. Yes, that's right, I made a 40 yard field goal at the Rose Bowl. I still have eligibility. Brewster -> call me.
It was quite tough to narrow down the field to just five entities that sucked this week, honorable mentions go to Texas Tech for almost losing to McNeese State and for the whole Leach debacle, Syracuse for losing to a crappy Pitt team, Cincinnati football for getting their big shot and just getting destroyed, Nothern Illinois for getting rolled by South Florida and extending the MAC's bowl losing streak to something like 15, Boston College for losing to Maine (Maine!), Tennessee for having four hoop players arrested for stealing cars with guns and drugs or something (I didn't really read the story), Arizona State and USC for combining to barely score 100 points combined (and USC for being cheaters), Ryan Mallet for being the worst QB ever, Ohio State for failing to beat a bad, bad Michigan team when all they need to do is win the games they are supposed to and wait for Evan Turner to come back, and finally the gopher football team just for existing.
That was depressing. To cheer you up here is the video of Tiny Gallon exploding the backboard at Gonzaga. I was watching this live and this was quite unexpected to say the least.
Monday, December 21, 2009
Week in Review - 12/21/09
I'm not going to bother with the Vikings or the fact that AP only got 12 carries last night (3 in the second half) against a terrible run defense when it was clearing that dropping back to pass only resulted in Julius Peppers destroying the pocket .2 seconds after the snap. Instead I'll just say it's pretty weird that Brittany Murphy died. $50 says Tiger Woods was involved somehow.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. The Atlantic 10. I've enjoyed ripping the A-10 here before, mostly because Dayton fans are such spazzes, but it's time to recognize that the A-10 is clearly better than the Pac, and might be better than the SEC at this point as well, and this weekend just put more evidence on the pile. On Saturday Richmond beat #13 Florida, Temple beat an undefeated Seton Hall, Umass beat Memphis, and Xavier lost controversially at the wire to Butler - the same Xavier team that already beat Cincinnati earlier this year. This saturday wasn't a fluke, either. Richmond has wins over Missouri and ODU (who beat Georgetown this weekend) to go with that win against the Gators. Temple beat Villanova earlier this week to pair with that win over Seton Hall and also beat Siena and Va Tech. Charlotte is 9-1 and has a win over Louisville. Dayton has wins over ODU and Georgia Tech, Rhode Island is 8-1 with wins over Boston College and Providence, Duquesne beat Iowa, St. Bonnie's beat Cleveland State, and while George Washington and LaSalle don't have signature wins, they do have good records. With the Pac sucking so hard and the SEC doing nothing of consequence outside of Kentucky, the A-10 might managed to snag 4-5 bids. Seriously.
2. Florida State. I'm starting to think you have to look at these guys as a nice sleeper, particularly after they went to Georgia Tech and walked out with a 66-59 victory (side note: Paul Hewitt might be the worst coach ever). That runs the Seminoles record to 10-2 with their only losses being on the road to good teams (Florida and Ohio State). And this is with star freshman Michael Snaer still trying to hit his stride (that 1-to-3 assist-to-turnover ratio is pretty horrendous). They turn the ball over way too much (18 per game), but play excellent defense (#6 in def. efficiency) and have great size (all major contributors over 6-4) to go along with great depth (9 guys play 14 minutes or more) and balanced scoring (five guys score 7 or more a game). The guard play is a little troublesome and somebody needs to step up to be the point guard here, but FSU is a team worth keeping an eye on.
3. Jon Scheyer. I truly hate praising any Dukie not named Ricky Price (Coach K Basketball on the Sega, check it out), but Scheyer has really done an incredible job this year. Not really a point guard but forced into it by Duke's lack of an actual ball-handler, he's been playing out of his mind this year and this past week is just representative of that. In Duke's wins this week over Gardner-Webb and Gonzaga (by a combined 189-109 score) he averaged 28 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 8.5 assists per game while shooting 64% from the field, 69% from three, and 94% from the free-throw line. And what's amazing is these numbers aren't that big of a jump from this season averages of 18-4-6 with just one TO per game. Yeah, I'd say he's having a pretty good season - he's 10th in the country in Ken Pomeroy's Offensive Efficiency Rating (Blakey is the top Gopher ranking 122nd). Will Duke be hurt, however, by not having a true point guard once we get to the tournament and thus get knocked out earlier than their seed would predict once again? Yes.
4. Hassan Whiteside. Ok, so a week when Marshall beats Brescia and High Point is maybe not the ideal team to write up their stud center, but I've been waiting on him every since I saw a top 50 recruit had inexplicably signed with the Thundering Herd and a week where he posted a triple-double seems like it's good enough. Oh yeah, I forgot to mention that Whiteside put up a 17 point, 14 rebound, 11 block game against Brecia (which, to be fair, was a 50 point win for Marshall, but still), and then followed that up against the hated High Point Panthers with a 13-10-6 performance (while the Herd won 109-76). His season averages of 12-9-5 are pretty incredible, although it's a bit troubling that in his only game against a decent opponent (ODU, Marshall's only loss) he put up a 4-5-1. It will be interesting to see how he and the team fare once C-USA play gets started, but we may get a bit of an idea Tuesday when Marshall plays North Carolina. For now, he's getting the coveted "underrated awesome player" alert status. I reserve the right to revoke this if he looks like garbage against the Heels.
5. Darrelle Revis. There's something fascinating going on here, and it's that Revis (of the NY Jets) has become the premier NFL coverage cornerback (sorry Champ), but I'm not sure how many people are aware of it. It's pretty unbelieveable, but if you look at it he covers the #1 receiver on the opposing team (different from how Bailey or Asomugha take one side of the field, he follows the other team's #1 where he goes) and shuts him down. Here are the Jets' opponents, the #1 receiver, and his stats that week going up against Revis:
1 - Houston - Andre Johnson - 4-35-0
2 - New England - Randy Moss - 4-24-0 (+1 pick)
3 - Tennessee - Justin Gage - 4-37-0
4 - New Orleans - Marques Colston - 2-33-0
5 - Miami - Davonne Bess - 3-18-0
6 - Buffalo - Terrell Owens - 3-13-0
7 - Oakland - Louis Murphy - 4-58-0 (+1 pick)
8 - Miami - Bess - 4-18-0
9 - Jacksonville - Mike Sims-Walker -3-49-1
10 - New England - Moss - 5-34-1
11 - Carolina - Steve Smith - 1-5-0 (+2 picks)
12 - Buffalo - Owens - 3-31-0 (+1 pick)
13 - Tampa - Antonio Bryant - 2-22-0 (+1 pick)
14 - Atlanta - Roddy White - 4-33-0
That's amazing. I didn't pay this close of attention to any of the other shutdown guys of the past (and like I said, Bailey and Asomugha covered sides not specific players), but I don't remember ever seeing something like this (was Deion this good?). I'm not going to go into all the play-by-plays or whatever and figure out exactly how many plays he was covering who and if all these catches were against or figuring out if any catches against him were made by other players, so let's just assume this is completely accurate. That would mean nobody this season caught more than five balls in a game against him, nobody gained more than 58 yards, and he only gave up two touchdowns all year while picking off six balls and taking one of them back for his own score, and he's also fifth on the team in solo tackles.
So I'm warning those of you who made your fantasy championship next week - don't start Reggie Wayne. Trust me.
WHO SUCKED
1. Tennessee. How the hell does this happen? And by this, I mean the Volunteers going to USC and getting absolutely destroyed by a terrible Trojan team who already sports losses to Nebraska and Loyola-Marymount on the season and barely beat Idaho State at home. Yet they were able to beat Tennessee by 22. I don't get it. USC is one of the worst shooting teams in major college basketball this year (42.8% this season, worst in the Pac 10) and Tennessee is a top 30 defensive based on total defensive efficiency, but the Trojans scored 77 while shooting 55% - makes zero sense. To make it worse, the Vols managed just five assists for the game and shot 2-22 from three despite USC having allowed opponents to shoot 39.6% from behind the line this year, 311th in the NCAA. I just don't get it sometimes. Trying to figure out college basketball is like trying to figure out a woman - it ain't gonna happen and you're just going to get frustrated, and trying to apply logic or reason just makes things worse.
2. Deonta Vaughn. Ok, you know I'm a huge Cincy fan, and despite their embarrassing loss to UAB earlier this week I still think they're a legit final four contender, but they sure as hell can't do it without Vaughn and it's time to stop ignoring what's going on here - especially because he's on my fantasy team. I know the team is deeper this year, and suddenly they have other guys who can be "the man" like Yancy Gates and Lance Stephenson, but Vaughn was the cold-blooded shooter last year who knocked down every big shot possible. But he's invisible now. His scoring is down from 15.3 per game last year to 10.2 this year, his assists are down, and he's shooting under 30% from three. This week was a perfect example, with Vaughn shooting 2-9 (1-7 from three) and scoring just 7 points and turning over five times, and then even against Lipscomb on Saturday he was only able to muster up just five points on, once again, 2-9 shooting (1-8 from three). Perhaps the worst part of this is he's turning into a Voshon Lenard - abandoning his all-around game to become nothing but a three-point jump shooter. Last year, 60% of his attempts were from three, and this year that number has risen to 66% - not much of a change, but the in the last two games 83% of his attempts are from behind the line, a disturbing trend, and something that needs to get straightened out if the Bearcats are going to cash my 200-1 bet.
3. Seton Hall. So much for all that Hall Hype, eh? I guess when you're 8-0 and scored 134 points in your last game people get a bit excited, even if that 134 came against VMI - a school morally opposed to playing defense - and your 8-0 includes exactly one decent win (over Cornell) and a bunch of wins over retarded schools. Well, the house of cards came crashing down on Saturday when the Hall lost at home to Temple, their first decent opponent of the year and they aren't even very good. Jeremy Hazell shot 4-17 and 1-11 from three, and Robert Mitchell was 1-8. This is the poster team for beating up on crappy cupcake teams. They are going to get destroyed in the Big East. I can't wait to bet against them.
4. Oregon State. Holy crap, how could this team have been picked in the fourth through sixth range by almost anybody who picks this kind of stuff? They dropped a game on Wednesday to the horrible UIC Flames, giving them a stellar 4-5 record (which is now 5-5 after they actually beat Miss Valley State on Saturday) which includes losses not only to the Flames (ranked #252 at kenpom.com), but also Sacramento State (#290) and Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (#116). Just an unrecoverable string of events. They have gone from cute little sleeper to make the NCAA Tournament for the first time in like a billion years to a bottom of the barrel team in a bottom of the barrel conference. Hey, here's a hint: if you're going to run the Princeton offense and minimize your possessions (tempo rank = 336th in the nation), you need to be efficient with them, you really can't turn the ball over 26.4% of the times you have it (340th in the country). That combination is so laughable, I almost wish I had made it up.
5. Anthony Tucker. Interesting and pretty not surprising news this weekend coming out of Iowa. In case you didn't hear, Anthony Tucker of Iowa (and formerly of a high school in Minnesota that I don't quite recall and don't feel like looking up) was arrested for public intoxication. No, you're not reliving groundhog day, this is a new story. Yes, he was arrested just 13 months ago on the same charge. If you recall, after returning to the team from that suspension he was hit with mono (allegedly) and missed a bunch of games, came back, and then got suspended for the rest of the year due to academics. Now he's suspended indefinitely, and according to the article I read his facebook status currently reads "I'm outta here."
Looks like another example of million-dollar talent with a five-cent head (actually, in Tucker's case it's probably more like $50,000 talent), and is yet another blow to an Iowa program that can't really afford another hit. Talk about a fall. Not that Iowa was ever considered an "elite" program, but they were very Gopher-like in that they seemed to fluctuate and made a decent run every 3-4 years or so (I mean Gopher-like pre-Monson, of course), but I'm not sure how they're getting out of this current sinkhole. It's been a mass exodus of players leaving Iowa City the last three years, from Tyler Smith and Tony Freeman to Jake Kelly and Jeff Peterson, and Lickliter seems to be restocking with quantity, not quality (between 2009 and 2010 classes he's bringing in seven 3-star and 1 2-star players). Actually, Iowa hasn't signed a four-star recruit since Smith in 2006. This is starting to feel a lot like a Monson situation down in Iowa City. I guess if I was in that mess I'd get drunk all the time too.
Oh who am I kidding, I do that anyway.
This picture is almost an almost perfect one of him, if only there was more beer:
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. The Atlantic 10. I've enjoyed ripping the A-10 here before, mostly because Dayton fans are such spazzes, but it's time to recognize that the A-10 is clearly better than the Pac, and might be better than the SEC at this point as well, and this weekend just put more evidence on the pile. On Saturday Richmond beat #13 Florida, Temple beat an undefeated Seton Hall, Umass beat Memphis, and Xavier lost controversially at the wire to Butler - the same Xavier team that already beat Cincinnati earlier this year. This saturday wasn't a fluke, either. Richmond has wins over Missouri and ODU (who beat Georgetown this weekend) to go with that win against the Gators. Temple beat Villanova earlier this week to pair with that win over Seton Hall and also beat Siena and Va Tech. Charlotte is 9-1 and has a win over Louisville. Dayton has wins over ODU and Georgia Tech, Rhode Island is 8-1 with wins over Boston College and Providence, Duquesne beat Iowa, St. Bonnie's beat Cleveland State, and while George Washington and LaSalle don't have signature wins, they do have good records. With the Pac sucking so hard and the SEC doing nothing of consequence outside of Kentucky, the A-10 might managed to snag 4-5 bids. Seriously.
2. Florida State. I'm starting to think you have to look at these guys as a nice sleeper, particularly after they went to Georgia Tech and walked out with a 66-59 victory (side note: Paul Hewitt might be the worst coach ever). That runs the Seminoles record to 10-2 with their only losses being on the road to good teams (Florida and Ohio State). And this is with star freshman Michael Snaer still trying to hit his stride (that 1-to-3 assist-to-turnover ratio is pretty horrendous). They turn the ball over way too much (18 per game), but play excellent defense (#6 in def. efficiency) and have great size (all major contributors over 6-4) to go along with great depth (9 guys play 14 minutes or more) and balanced scoring (five guys score 7 or more a game). The guard play is a little troublesome and somebody needs to step up to be the point guard here, but FSU is a team worth keeping an eye on.
3. Jon Scheyer. I truly hate praising any Dukie not named Ricky Price (Coach K Basketball on the Sega, check it out), but Scheyer has really done an incredible job this year. Not really a point guard but forced into it by Duke's lack of an actual ball-handler, he's been playing out of his mind this year and this past week is just representative of that. In Duke's wins this week over Gardner-Webb and Gonzaga (by a combined 189-109 score) he averaged 28 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 8.5 assists per game while shooting 64% from the field, 69% from three, and 94% from the free-throw line. And what's amazing is these numbers aren't that big of a jump from this season averages of 18-4-6 with just one TO per game. Yeah, I'd say he's having a pretty good season - he's 10th in the country in Ken Pomeroy's Offensive Efficiency Rating (Blakey is the top Gopher ranking 122nd). Will Duke be hurt, however, by not having a true point guard once we get to the tournament and thus get knocked out earlier than their seed would predict once again? Yes.
4. Hassan Whiteside. Ok, so a week when Marshall beats Brescia and High Point is maybe not the ideal team to write up their stud center, but I've been waiting on him every since I saw a top 50 recruit had inexplicably signed with the Thundering Herd and a week where he posted a triple-double seems like it's good enough. Oh yeah, I forgot to mention that Whiteside put up a 17 point, 14 rebound, 11 block game against Brecia (which, to be fair, was a 50 point win for Marshall, but still), and then followed that up against the hated High Point Panthers with a 13-10-6 performance (while the Herd won 109-76). His season averages of 12-9-5 are pretty incredible, although it's a bit troubling that in his only game against a decent opponent (ODU, Marshall's only loss) he put up a 4-5-1. It will be interesting to see how he and the team fare once C-USA play gets started, but we may get a bit of an idea Tuesday when Marshall plays North Carolina. For now, he's getting the coveted "underrated awesome player" alert status. I reserve the right to revoke this if he looks like garbage against the Heels.
5. Darrelle Revis. There's something fascinating going on here, and it's that Revis (of the NY Jets) has become the premier NFL coverage cornerback (sorry Champ), but I'm not sure how many people are aware of it. It's pretty unbelieveable, but if you look at it he covers the #1 receiver on the opposing team (different from how Bailey or Asomugha take one side of the field, he follows the other team's #1 where he goes) and shuts him down. Here are the Jets' opponents, the #1 receiver, and his stats that week going up against Revis:
1 - Houston - Andre Johnson - 4-35-0
2 - New England - Randy Moss - 4-24-0 (+1 pick)
3 - Tennessee - Justin Gage - 4-37-0
4 - New Orleans - Marques Colston - 2-33-0
5 - Miami - Davonne Bess - 3-18-0
6 - Buffalo - Terrell Owens - 3-13-0
7 - Oakland - Louis Murphy - 4-58-0 (+1 pick)
8 - Miami - Bess - 4-18-0
9 - Jacksonville - Mike Sims-Walker -3-49-1
10 - New England - Moss - 5-34-1
11 - Carolina - Steve Smith - 1-5-0 (+2 picks)
12 - Buffalo - Owens - 3-31-0 (+1 pick)
13 - Tampa - Antonio Bryant - 2-22-0 (+1 pick)
14 - Atlanta - Roddy White - 4-33-0
That's amazing. I didn't pay this close of attention to any of the other shutdown guys of the past (and like I said, Bailey and Asomugha covered sides not specific players), but I don't remember ever seeing something like this (was Deion this good?). I'm not going to go into all the play-by-plays or whatever and figure out exactly how many plays he was covering who and if all these catches were against or figuring out if any catches against him were made by other players, so let's just assume this is completely accurate. That would mean nobody this season caught more than five balls in a game against him, nobody gained more than 58 yards, and he only gave up two touchdowns all year while picking off six balls and taking one of them back for his own score, and he's also fifth on the team in solo tackles.
So I'm warning those of you who made your fantasy championship next week - don't start Reggie Wayne. Trust me.
WHO SUCKED
1. Tennessee. How the hell does this happen? And by this, I mean the Volunteers going to USC and getting absolutely destroyed by a terrible Trojan team who already sports losses to Nebraska and Loyola-Marymount on the season and barely beat Idaho State at home. Yet they were able to beat Tennessee by 22. I don't get it. USC is one of the worst shooting teams in major college basketball this year (42.8% this season, worst in the Pac 10) and Tennessee is a top 30 defensive based on total defensive efficiency, but the Trojans scored 77 while shooting 55% - makes zero sense. To make it worse, the Vols managed just five assists for the game and shot 2-22 from three despite USC having allowed opponents to shoot 39.6% from behind the line this year, 311th in the NCAA. I just don't get it sometimes. Trying to figure out college basketball is like trying to figure out a woman - it ain't gonna happen and you're just going to get frustrated, and trying to apply logic or reason just makes things worse.
2. Deonta Vaughn. Ok, you know I'm a huge Cincy fan, and despite their embarrassing loss to UAB earlier this week I still think they're a legit final four contender, but they sure as hell can't do it without Vaughn and it's time to stop ignoring what's going on here - especially because he's on my fantasy team. I know the team is deeper this year, and suddenly they have other guys who can be "the man" like Yancy Gates and Lance Stephenson, but Vaughn was the cold-blooded shooter last year who knocked down every big shot possible. But he's invisible now. His scoring is down from 15.3 per game last year to 10.2 this year, his assists are down, and he's shooting under 30% from three. This week was a perfect example, with Vaughn shooting 2-9 (1-7 from three) and scoring just 7 points and turning over five times, and then even against Lipscomb on Saturday he was only able to muster up just five points on, once again, 2-9 shooting (1-8 from three). Perhaps the worst part of this is he's turning into a Voshon Lenard - abandoning his all-around game to become nothing but a three-point jump shooter. Last year, 60% of his attempts were from three, and this year that number has risen to 66% - not much of a change, but the in the last two games 83% of his attempts are from behind the line, a disturbing trend, and something that needs to get straightened out if the Bearcats are going to cash my 200-1 bet.
3. Seton Hall. So much for all that Hall Hype, eh? I guess when you're 8-0 and scored 134 points in your last game people get a bit excited, even if that 134 came against VMI - a school morally opposed to playing defense - and your 8-0 includes exactly one decent win (over Cornell) and a bunch of wins over retarded schools. Well, the house of cards came crashing down on Saturday when the Hall lost at home to Temple, their first decent opponent of the year and they aren't even very good. Jeremy Hazell shot 4-17 and 1-11 from three, and Robert Mitchell was 1-8. This is the poster team for beating up on crappy cupcake teams. They are going to get destroyed in the Big East. I can't wait to bet against them.
4. Oregon State. Holy crap, how could this team have been picked in the fourth through sixth range by almost anybody who picks this kind of stuff? They dropped a game on Wednesday to the horrible UIC Flames, giving them a stellar 4-5 record (which is now 5-5 after they actually beat Miss Valley State on Saturday) which includes losses not only to the Flames (ranked #252 at kenpom.com), but also Sacramento State (#290) and Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (#116). Just an unrecoverable string of events. They have gone from cute little sleeper to make the NCAA Tournament for the first time in like a billion years to a bottom of the barrel team in a bottom of the barrel conference. Hey, here's a hint: if you're going to run the Princeton offense and minimize your possessions (tempo rank = 336th in the nation), you need to be efficient with them, you really can't turn the ball over 26.4% of the times you have it (340th in the country). That combination is so laughable, I almost wish I had made it up.
5. Anthony Tucker. Interesting and pretty not surprising news this weekend coming out of Iowa. In case you didn't hear, Anthony Tucker of Iowa (and formerly of a high school in Minnesota that I don't quite recall and don't feel like looking up) was arrested for public intoxication. No, you're not reliving groundhog day, this is a new story. Yes, he was arrested just 13 months ago on the same charge. If you recall, after returning to the team from that suspension he was hit with mono (allegedly) and missed a bunch of games, came back, and then got suspended for the rest of the year due to academics. Now he's suspended indefinitely, and according to the article I read his facebook status currently reads "I'm outta here."
Looks like another example of million-dollar talent with a five-cent head (actually, in Tucker's case it's probably more like $50,000 talent), and is yet another blow to an Iowa program that can't really afford another hit. Talk about a fall. Not that Iowa was ever considered an "elite" program, but they were very Gopher-like in that they seemed to fluctuate and made a decent run every 3-4 years or so (I mean Gopher-like pre-Monson, of course), but I'm not sure how they're getting out of this current sinkhole. It's been a mass exodus of players leaving Iowa City the last three years, from Tyler Smith and Tony Freeman to Jake Kelly and Jeff Peterson, and Lickliter seems to be restocking with quantity, not quality (between 2009 and 2010 classes he's bringing in seven 3-star and 1 2-star players). Actually, Iowa hasn't signed a four-star recruit since Smith in 2006. This is starting to feel a lot like a Monson situation down in Iowa City. I guess if I was in that mess I'd get drunk all the time too.
Oh who am I kidding, I do that anyway.
This picture is almost an almost perfect one of him, if only there was more beer:
Friday, October 23, 2009
NCAA Basketball Preview: The Big East
There are sixteen freaking teams in this conference. Sixteen!! No wonder they got eight or nine teams or whatever in the tournament last year. That's like the Big Ten getting five or six - no big whoop. Even so, there are a whole lot of quality teams here - the dominance of last year won't be repeated, but there are plenty of good teams in the Big East again and a final four contender or two.
1. West Virginia. There's no doubt Bob Huggins is leaving his stamp on this team, and not just with stellar recruiting and good overall coaching, but with lax disciplinary actions as well. The team's two point guards, Joe Mazzulla and Darryl Bryant, were both arrested this summer (Mazzulla on domestic battery charges - his second arrest following up last year's for assaulting a police officer, Bryant for two separate hit and run incidents, including "bumping" a pedestrian), but surprise, surprise, they are both back on Huggy Bear's squad. I'm kidding here, of course, I don't give a crap what any player does off the court and I hvae no problem with schools bending whatever rules possible to win - and win the Mountaineers should do. Da'Sean Butler is a monster, and Devin Ebanks is going to be an absolute superstar. Since it's Huggy, they'll probably flame out in the second round of the tournament, but they should be gold in the regular season.
2. Villanova. Scottie Reynolds coming back instead of staying in the NBA draft is a bit of a double-edged sword, for both the Wildcats and for me. For Nova, it gives them back their leading scorer, but also a bit of a wildcard who can go off in a bad way, chucking shots at every opportunity and sometimes shooting them right out of a game, and makes a crowded, yet talented, backcourt even more crowded. For me, I'm sort of happy I get another season to root against him, but on the other hand it would have been kind of fun to watch him not get drafted and end up languishing in Norwegian Basketball League or something. Oh well. Villanova is going to be very good again this year, and once again will be very perimeter-based with all those guards back. Plus they add two McDonald's All-Americans, both guards, in Maalik Wayns (#26 Rivals) and Dominic Cheek (#30). Their big concern is up front. Losing Dante Cunningham, Dwayne Anderson, and Shane Clark takes away nearly 50% of their rebounds from last year. Luckily, they have two other stud recruits, #10 Mouphtaou Yarou and #62 Isaiah Armwood coming in and both bring size and rebounding.
3. UCONN. Lots of talent leaves, but since Calhoun got this program all straightened out again after that brief dip into crappiness in 2007, you can bet their is plenty coming back and coming in as well. Kemba Walker and Jerome Dyson might be the best backcourt in the conference. Walker is quick as lightning and played very well down the stretch last year after Dyson got hurt. Speaking of Dyson, I love his game. Assuming he's all the way back from injury, I can see him making a run at First Team All Big East. Stanley Robinson is back as well, and he's an incredible athlete who also came into his own the second half of last year. If someone can step in and fill the up the paint with Thabeet and Adrien gone, either one of the seldom used veterans or freshman Alex Oriakhi, the #21 prospect according to Rivals, the Huskies could have an oustide shot at another Final Four appearance.
4. Cincinnati. I love the Bearcats this year. Love 'em. Deonta Vaughn is a stone-cold killer at guard, and he's back with more help. Yancy Gates is a big man who made the all Big East freshman team last year and is just going to get better, and there's plenty of other help here with four starters coming back, and after the fall semester will be joined in the paint by former Oklahoma State center Ibrahima Thomas, giving them another low post scorer and solid defender. Another big help will come from freshman Cashmere Wright, a top 100 prospect last year before hurting his knee and missing the entire season. Cincinnati is loaded with combo guard types, but Wright gives them a true point guard, which should help Vaughn score even more. The real wild card here is SF Lance Stephenson, a top 10 recruit, a McDonald's All-American, and the all-time leading scorer in New York High School basketball history. He's still a question mark on academics, and has been a bit of a handful in high school, getting in trouble for getting in a fight with a teammate as well as for "groping" a girl against her will in the hallway (you know she wanted it). His issues are such that high profile schools such as UNC and Kansas pulling out of his recruitment. If he gets eligible and can mesh with his new teammates, the sky is the limit for the Bearcats. If he doesn't, or if he's a discipline problem, they could end up anywhere from a good team to a disaster. At 200-1 to win the whole thing, this is a great option to put $5 down on.
5. Georgetown. Greg Monroe was insanely impressive last season, and despite averaging a fairly pedestrian 12.7 points and 6.5 rebounds last season he loooked ready to break out at any time. Trust me, if you watched him play at all he looks amazing. Already as a freshman he could handle the ball on the perimeter, and not just passing, I watched him put it on the floor and drive right passed several slower, less agile centers. He also already possessed a handful of moves on the block and a decent mid-range game, and is a capable defender. Last season you could see he was willing to play a more complimentary role, even though he probably shouldn't have. If he comes into this season with a more assertive attitude, there's no way the Hoyas end up without a bid and an inexplicably horrible record like they did last season. I'm telling you, if you have a chance to watch Monroe next season, take the time to check him out. He'll probably be a Wolf soon.
6. Louisville. Losing Terrence Williams and Earl Clark is not going to be easy. Those two did essentially everything for the Cardinals, outside of three point shooting. They were the top 2 scorers, rebounders, and assist men for Louisville last year, and so it's understandable to expect the team to take a step back. How far will mainly depend on Samardo Samuels, who couldn't even stop Travis Busch. Last year Samuels was the third option and played well, but this season he will need to become the man. Another important player, and massive head-scratcher, is point guard Edgar Sosa. As a freshman, he played brilliantly at times, put up very good numbers for a first year player, and looked like he was going to be the next "big-time PG from New York." Instead, he's taken a step backward after a step backward, and now goes into his senior year with just one more chance to try to recapture whatever it is he lost from his debut season. If he can't, freshman Peyton Siva is now on board, and was ranked #39 on the Rivals 150. He could easily end up taking Sosa's job - if Rick Pitino manages to stop banging broads long enough to pay attention.
7. Syracuse. Every where I turn it seems like there's a new article about how Iowa State transfer Wesley Johnson is like, the greatest transfer of all-time and he's going to carry the Orange and I don't get. Don't get me wrong, he's a good player and all (averaged 12 points and 4 rebounds his last year at ISU), but he's no savior. He wasn't highly recruited out of high school, and although he burst on the scene his freshman year he regressed quite a bit in year two. If Syracuse wasn't losing Paul Harris (one of my favorites the last few years), criminal Eric Devendorf, and Jonny Flynn, he might be the missing piece that vaults them to the top - but those guys are all gone. There is still some quality talent here, and I love watching Arinze Onuaku, who really doesn't mess around and try to get all fancy. He just gets the ball, knocks defenders over, and then dunks on their stupid heads. The Cuse should be good again, assuming they find some guard play somewhere, but let's calm down a wee tad on Wesley.
8. Notre Dame. Harangody is back - yes again - which makes the Irish dangerous in any given game, but the majority of his supporting cast is gone, and I'm not sure if that's good or bad after last year's total flame out. None of the incoming recruits are particularly impressive, with apologies to Minnesota's own Mike Broghammer, so it's going to fall on returning veterans to get the Irish back to the NCAA Tournament. They do have their starting point guard back in little Tory Jackson. He's very hard to keep out of the paint, but is not a good outside shooter and, although he's improved his free-throw shooting, can be a liability at the end of games. Two transfers were supposed to shore up the team this season, Ben Hansbrough from Mississippi State and Scott Martin from Purdue. Hansbrough will be key if they want to get to the NCAAs, but Martin got hurt and is going to miss the whole season.
9. Seton Hall. This is a really interesting team, and on paper they have a chance to be much better than 9th. It starts with their returning star, shooting guard Jeremy Hazell. He's a scoring machine who can get hot at a moment's notice, and averaged 22.7 points per game last season, second in the Big East, despite shooting just 42%. Less might be more here, and he should have more help this season, beyond even the two other returning double digit scorers returning to the Pirates in the form of a couple of interesting transfers, one inside and one outside. The perimeter guy is Keon Lawrence, who comes to the Hall via Missouri. Lawrence is an excellent scorer (he put up 9.7 and 11.0 ppg in his two years at Mizzou) who will help take some pressure off of Hazell, and is talented enough to shoulder the scoring load some nights (he put up 25 against Kansas one year). Power Forward Herb Pope, the other transfer - this time from New Mexico State, might be even more important since the Pirates a bit thin on the inside. Pope was a high school superstar - ranked #31 by Rivals and offered by Texas, Pitt, and Memphis - and averaged 11 points and 7 rebounds per game in his one season in the desert. If everything and everyone pulls together and meshes well, an NCAA Tournament bid isn't out of the question.
10. Pitt. Thank god Pitt is finally going to take a step back this year, I've been getting more tired of that program than I can possibly express in words. They lose pretty much everybody, which is good news for me because rotund irritant Levance Fields is finally gone, but is bad for Pitt. Their leading returning scorer, and only 20+ minute guy who is coming back, Jermaine Dixon, is more of a defensive specialist than any kind of offensive threat. Of course, Jamie Dixon couldn't just relax for a little bit, and he is bringing in a very good recruiting class - including Rivals #14 prospect Dante Taylor, who has a good chance to win Big East ROY - so this break from having Pitt up in your face every time you turn on ESPN will be short-lived. Enjoy it folks, I know I will.
11. Rutgers. I always find myself rooting for Rutgers and I think there are two reasons. The first, is that I liked watching Quincy "rolling a" Douby and that other guy whose name I can't remember right now when they were there and the Scarlet Knights were actually good. The second is that they have a great home court advantage when they are good, and they call the place the RAC which is pronounced like "rack", of which I am a big fan. So maybe I'm overrating them a tad but I think Rutgers could sneak up on a few people this season, especially at home. The program's first McDonald's All-American, Mike Rosario, paid immediate dividends, leading the team in scoring, but something more needs to happen if this is Rutgers return to prominence. They add a pretty decent batch of newcomers, which includes top 100 recruit SF Dane Miller, top 40 JuCo James Beatty - who will probably start at PG from day one, and a small forward transfer from Florida in Jonathan Mitchell, a top 100 recruit in 2006 and a bit player on Florida's second National Championship team. In a down Big East, maybe this is their year.
12. Marquette. Jerel McNeal, Dominic James, and Wes Matthews were without question on of the best three-man backcourts I have ever seen, and maybe the best since Lethal Weapon 3 (the aesome Georgia Tech one, not the craptacualrly overrated South Carolina nickname stealing one). But yeah, those guys are gone. Swingman Lazar Haywood is back at least, and despite being in the guards shadow a bit he's developed into an outstanding player - did you know that other than Luke Harangody, Haywood was the only Big East player to rank in the top 10 in both scoring and rebounding last season? I bet you had no idea he was that good, did you? There's some nice players coming in this year's recruiting class, with, no surprise, an emphasis on the perimeter, including Rivals #47 Jeronne Maymon, who the Gophers were looking at for a time, but unless Hayward has a super human year, I don't think we'll see the Golden Eagles back in the NCAA tournament.
13. St. Johns. The Redmen or Red Storm or Reds or whatever they are have an interesting group of talent this year - they should be deep, but I just don't know if they'll be good. They lose nobody off of their 6-12 Big East team from last year, and have plenty of balance with five players who scored between 9 and 15 points per game - although Anthony Mason only played 3 games last year. Mason is still hurt, and will be out 4-6 weeks, so it will be interesting to see what happens when he tries to return as lead dog and reintegrate with his teammates who will have played over a season's worth of games without him.
14. South Florida. Did you know that South Florida had one of the best all-around players in the Big East? Me neither, but they do and he's only a junior. Dominique Jones, a 6-4 guard out of Florida, was a bit underrated coming out of high school (3 stars, unranked, mid-major type offers), but he's certainly blossomed with the Bulls. He finished 9th in the conference in scoring (18.1 ppg), was 27th in rebounding (5.6 rpg), and was 12th in assists at 3.9 per game, and also led the Bulls in steals and was second in blocks while scoring in double figures in 55 of his 62 career games. Yeah, he's good. There's not a ton of help around him, but the best recruiting class the Bulls have had in a long time is coming in this year, and two transfers - PG Anthony Crater from Ohio State and C Jarrid Famous from a JuCo - bring hope, if nothing else. Crater is especially important because Jones won't have to worry about playing the point, and that should lead to a huge year.
15. Providence. I liked the Friars last year quite a bit, but they could never quite rise above "pesky" and fell just short of gaining an NCAA bid. Now five of the top seven guys are gone, and although Sharaud Curry and Marshon Brooks are good players, replacing two thirds of the team's scoring from last season is no easy feat, and a big burden will fall on a huge group of newcomers. The closest thing to a standout in the group is PG Johnnie Lacy (#143 according to Rivals), whose name you might remember because the Gophers had given him a scholarship offer. Unless a couple of juco guys work out really well, it will probably be a long year for the Friars, but with a good class this year and an even better one already in the works for next year, things should turn around, unlike
16. DePaul. The worst arena in the country hosts what might be, once again, the worst major conference team in the country. Seems fitting. The Blue Demons didn't win a single conference game (until a shocker of a win in the Big East tournament), and now see their best player leave for the NBA draft (note: he didn't get drafted). There's some talent here, Mac Koshwal is a great all around player and Will "Wheel" Walker is a good scorer, but that's about it. Krys Faber, who chose DePaul over Minnesota, is still here as well, and is probably going to be questioning his decision when he's watching the Gophers in the tournament from his dorm room, because I don't think DePaul even has as much as a CBI bid in them.
Other Previews
Conference USA
Atlantic 10
Mountain West
Atlantic Coast
Big Twelve
1. West Virginia. There's no doubt Bob Huggins is leaving his stamp on this team, and not just with stellar recruiting and good overall coaching, but with lax disciplinary actions as well. The team's two point guards, Joe Mazzulla and Darryl Bryant, were both arrested this summer (Mazzulla on domestic battery charges - his second arrest following up last year's for assaulting a police officer, Bryant for two separate hit and run incidents, including "bumping" a pedestrian), but surprise, surprise, they are both back on Huggy Bear's squad. I'm kidding here, of course, I don't give a crap what any player does off the court and I hvae no problem with schools bending whatever rules possible to win - and win the Mountaineers should do. Da'Sean Butler is a monster, and Devin Ebanks is going to be an absolute superstar. Since it's Huggy, they'll probably flame out in the second round of the tournament, but they should be gold in the regular season.
2. Villanova. Scottie Reynolds coming back instead of staying in the NBA draft is a bit of a double-edged sword, for both the Wildcats and for me. For Nova, it gives them back their leading scorer, but also a bit of a wildcard who can go off in a bad way, chucking shots at every opportunity and sometimes shooting them right out of a game, and makes a crowded, yet talented, backcourt even more crowded. For me, I'm sort of happy I get another season to root against him, but on the other hand it would have been kind of fun to watch him not get drafted and end up languishing in Norwegian Basketball League or something. Oh well. Villanova is going to be very good again this year, and once again will be very perimeter-based with all those guards back. Plus they add two McDonald's All-Americans, both guards, in Maalik Wayns (#26 Rivals) and Dominic Cheek (#30). Their big concern is up front. Losing Dante Cunningham, Dwayne Anderson, and Shane Clark takes away nearly 50% of their rebounds from last year. Luckily, they have two other stud recruits, #10 Mouphtaou Yarou and #62 Isaiah Armwood coming in and both bring size and rebounding.
3. UCONN. Lots of talent leaves, but since Calhoun got this program all straightened out again after that brief dip into crappiness in 2007, you can bet their is plenty coming back and coming in as well. Kemba Walker and Jerome Dyson might be the best backcourt in the conference. Walker is quick as lightning and played very well down the stretch last year after Dyson got hurt. Speaking of Dyson, I love his game. Assuming he's all the way back from injury, I can see him making a run at First Team All Big East. Stanley Robinson is back as well, and he's an incredible athlete who also came into his own the second half of last year. If someone can step in and fill the up the paint with Thabeet and Adrien gone, either one of the seldom used veterans or freshman Alex Oriakhi, the #21 prospect according to Rivals, the Huskies could have an oustide shot at another Final Four appearance.
4. Cincinnati. I love the Bearcats this year. Love 'em. Deonta Vaughn is a stone-cold killer at guard, and he's back with more help. Yancy Gates is a big man who made the all Big East freshman team last year and is just going to get better, and there's plenty of other help here with four starters coming back, and after the fall semester will be joined in the paint by former Oklahoma State center Ibrahima Thomas, giving them another low post scorer and solid defender. Another big help will come from freshman Cashmere Wright, a top 100 prospect last year before hurting his knee and missing the entire season. Cincinnati is loaded with combo guard types, but Wright gives them a true point guard, which should help Vaughn score even more. The real wild card here is SF Lance Stephenson, a top 10 recruit, a McDonald's All-American, and the all-time leading scorer in New York High School basketball history. He's still a question mark on academics, and has been a bit of a handful in high school, getting in trouble for getting in a fight with a teammate as well as for "groping" a girl against her will in the hallway (you know she wanted it). His issues are such that high profile schools such as UNC and Kansas pulling out of his recruitment. If he gets eligible and can mesh with his new teammates, the sky is the limit for the Bearcats. If he doesn't, or if he's a discipline problem, they could end up anywhere from a good team to a disaster. At 200-1 to win the whole thing, this is a great option to put $5 down on.
5. Georgetown. Greg Monroe was insanely impressive last season, and despite averaging a fairly pedestrian 12.7 points and 6.5 rebounds last season he loooked ready to break out at any time. Trust me, if you watched him play at all he looks amazing. Already as a freshman he could handle the ball on the perimeter, and not just passing, I watched him put it on the floor and drive right passed several slower, less agile centers. He also already possessed a handful of moves on the block and a decent mid-range game, and is a capable defender. Last season you could see he was willing to play a more complimentary role, even though he probably shouldn't have. If he comes into this season with a more assertive attitude, there's no way the Hoyas end up without a bid and an inexplicably horrible record like they did last season. I'm telling you, if you have a chance to watch Monroe next season, take the time to check him out. He'll probably be a Wolf soon.
6. Louisville. Losing Terrence Williams and Earl Clark is not going to be easy. Those two did essentially everything for the Cardinals, outside of three point shooting. They were the top 2 scorers, rebounders, and assist men for Louisville last year, and so it's understandable to expect the team to take a step back. How far will mainly depend on Samardo Samuels, who couldn't even stop Travis Busch. Last year Samuels was the third option and played well, but this season he will need to become the man. Another important player, and massive head-scratcher, is point guard Edgar Sosa. As a freshman, he played brilliantly at times, put up very good numbers for a first year player, and looked like he was going to be the next "big-time PG from New York." Instead, he's taken a step backward after a step backward, and now goes into his senior year with just one more chance to try to recapture whatever it is he lost from his debut season. If he can't, freshman Peyton Siva is now on board, and was ranked #39 on the Rivals 150. He could easily end up taking Sosa's job - if Rick Pitino manages to stop banging broads long enough to pay attention.
7. Syracuse. Every where I turn it seems like there's a new article about how Iowa State transfer Wesley Johnson is like, the greatest transfer of all-time and he's going to carry the Orange and I don't get. Don't get me wrong, he's a good player and all (averaged 12 points and 4 rebounds his last year at ISU), but he's no savior. He wasn't highly recruited out of high school, and although he burst on the scene his freshman year he regressed quite a bit in year two. If Syracuse wasn't losing Paul Harris (one of my favorites the last few years), criminal Eric Devendorf, and Jonny Flynn, he might be the missing piece that vaults them to the top - but those guys are all gone. There is still some quality talent here, and I love watching Arinze Onuaku, who really doesn't mess around and try to get all fancy. He just gets the ball, knocks defenders over, and then dunks on their stupid heads. The Cuse should be good again, assuming they find some guard play somewhere, but let's calm down a wee tad on Wesley.
8. Notre Dame. Harangody is back - yes again - which makes the Irish dangerous in any given game, but the majority of his supporting cast is gone, and I'm not sure if that's good or bad after last year's total flame out. None of the incoming recruits are particularly impressive, with apologies to Minnesota's own Mike Broghammer, so it's going to fall on returning veterans to get the Irish back to the NCAA Tournament. They do have their starting point guard back in little Tory Jackson. He's very hard to keep out of the paint, but is not a good outside shooter and, although he's improved his free-throw shooting, can be a liability at the end of games. Two transfers were supposed to shore up the team this season, Ben Hansbrough from Mississippi State and Scott Martin from Purdue. Hansbrough will be key if they want to get to the NCAAs, but Martin got hurt and is going to miss the whole season.
9. Seton Hall. This is a really interesting team, and on paper they have a chance to be much better than 9th. It starts with their returning star, shooting guard Jeremy Hazell. He's a scoring machine who can get hot at a moment's notice, and averaged 22.7 points per game last season, second in the Big East, despite shooting just 42%. Less might be more here, and he should have more help this season, beyond even the two other returning double digit scorers returning to the Pirates in the form of a couple of interesting transfers, one inside and one outside. The perimeter guy is Keon Lawrence, who comes to the Hall via Missouri. Lawrence is an excellent scorer (he put up 9.7 and 11.0 ppg in his two years at Mizzou) who will help take some pressure off of Hazell, and is talented enough to shoulder the scoring load some nights (he put up 25 against Kansas one year). Power Forward Herb Pope, the other transfer - this time from New Mexico State, might be even more important since the Pirates a bit thin on the inside. Pope was a high school superstar - ranked #31 by Rivals and offered by Texas, Pitt, and Memphis - and averaged 11 points and 7 rebounds per game in his one season in the desert. If everything and everyone pulls together and meshes well, an NCAA Tournament bid isn't out of the question.
10. Pitt. Thank god Pitt is finally going to take a step back this year, I've been getting more tired of that program than I can possibly express in words. They lose pretty much everybody, which is good news for me because rotund irritant Levance Fields is finally gone, but is bad for Pitt. Their leading returning scorer, and only 20+ minute guy who is coming back, Jermaine Dixon, is more of a defensive specialist than any kind of offensive threat. Of course, Jamie Dixon couldn't just relax for a little bit, and he is bringing in a very good recruiting class - including Rivals #14 prospect Dante Taylor, who has a good chance to win Big East ROY - so this break from having Pitt up in your face every time you turn on ESPN will be short-lived. Enjoy it folks, I know I will.
11. Rutgers. I always find myself rooting for Rutgers and I think there are two reasons. The first, is that I liked watching Quincy "rolling a" Douby and that other guy whose name I can't remember right now when they were there and the Scarlet Knights were actually good. The second is that they have a great home court advantage when they are good, and they call the place the RAC which is pronounced like "rack", of which I am a big fan. So maybe I'm overrating them a tad but I think Rutgers could sneak up on a few people this season, especially at home. The program's first McDonald's All-American, Mike Rosario, paid immediate dividends, leading the team in scoring, but something more needs to happen if this is Rutgers return to prominence. They add a pretty decent batch of newcomers, which includes top 100 recruit SF Dane Miller, top 40 JuCo James Beatty - who will probably start at PG from day one, and a small forward transfer from Florida in Jonathan Mitchell, a top 100 recruit in 2006 and a bit player on Florida's second National Championship team. In a down Big East, maybe this is their year.
12. Marquette. Jerel McNeal, Dominic James, and Wes Matthews were without question on of the best three-man backcourts I have ever seen, and maybe the best since Lethal Weapon 3 (the aesome Georgia Tech one, not the craptacualrly overrated South Carolina nickname stealing one). But yeah, those guys are gone. Swingman Lazar Haywood is back at least, and despite being in the guards shadow a bit he's developed into an outstanding player - did you know that other than Luke Harangody, Haywood was the only Big East player to rank in the top 10 in both scoring and rebounding last season? I bet you had no idea he was that good, did you? There's some nice players coming in this year's recruiting class, with, no surprise, an emphasis on the perimeter, including Rivals #47 Jeronne Maymon, who the Gophers were looking at for a time, but unless Hayward has a super human year, I don't think we'll see the Golden Eagles back in the NCAA tournament.
13. St. Johns. The Redmen or Red Storm or Reds or whatever they are have an interesting group of talent this year - they should be deep, but I just don't know if they'll be good. They lose nobody off of their 6-12 Big East team from last year, and have plenty of balance with five players who scored between 9 and 15 points per game - although Anthony Mason only played 3 games last year. Mason is still hurt, and will be out 4-6 weeks, so it will be interesting to see what happens when he tries to return as lead dog and reintegrate with his teammates who will have played over a season's worth of games without him.
14. South Florida. Did you know that South Florida had one of the best all-around players in the Big East? Me neither, but they do and he's only a junior. Dominique Jones, a 6-4 guard out of Florida, was a bit underrated coming out of high school (3 stars, unranked, mid-major type offers), but he's certainly blossomed with the Bulls. He finished 9th in the conference in scoring (18.1 ppg), was 27th in rebounding (5.6 rpg), and was 12th in assists at 3.9 per game, and also led the Bulls in steals and was second in blocks while scoring in double figures in 55 of his 62 career games. Yeah, he's good. There's not a ton of help around him, but the best recruiting class the Bulls have had in a long time is coming in this year, and two transfers - PG Anthony Crater from Ohio State and C Jarrid Famous from a JuCo - bring hope, if nothing else. Crater is especially important because Jones won't have to worry about playing the point, and that should lead to a huge year.
15. Providence. I liked the Friars last year quite a bit, but they could never quite rise above "pesky" and fell just short of gaining an NCAA bid. Now five of the top seven guys are gone, and although Sharaud Curry and Marshon Brooks are good players, replacing two thirds of the team's scoring from last season is no easy feat, and a big burden will fall on a huge group of newcomers. The closest thing to a standout in the group is PG Johnnie Lacy (#143 according to Rivals), whose name you might remember because the Gophers had given him a scholarship offer. Unless a couple of juco guys work out really well, it will probably be a long year for the Friars, but with a good class this year and an even better one already in the works for next year, things should turn around, unlike
16. DePaul. The worst arena in the country hosts what might be, once again, the worst major conference team in the country. Seems fitting. The Blue Demons didn't win a single conference game (until a shocker of a win in the Big East tournament), and now see their best player leave for the NBA draft (note: he didn't get drafted). There's some talent here, Mac Koshwal is a great all around player and Will "Wheel" Walker is a good scorer, but that's about it. Krys Faber, who chose DePaul over Minnesota, is still here as well, and is probably going to be questioning his decision when he's watching the Gophers in the tournament from his dorm room, because I don't think DePaul even has as much as a CBI bid in them.
Other Previews
Conference USA
Atlantic 10
Mountain West
Atlantic Coast
Big Twelve
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