NCAA Basketball Preview - The Pac 12

Here's what you need to know about the Pac-12 this year - they're going to be bad again.  Once again, the Pac teams have been hit hard by attrition and although they continue to pull in a good share of stud recruits, the players are leaving more quickly than they can be replaced.  If there was an easy way to look this up without having to straight count it or if there was a page with bids by conference by year, but there's not, so instead I'll just point out how the Pac has struggled even getting 2-3 teams bids in the last few seasons.

They've done so crappy in the non-conference slate that it's hard to build a profile back-up in a conference where seemingly everybody has a bad early loss.  Last year Oregon lost to San Jose State and Idaho, UCLA lost to Montana, USC lost to Rider, Bradley, Nebraska, and TCU, Stanford lost to Tulsa, Oregon State lost to Seattle, Texas Southern, and Utah Valley, and Arizona State lost to New Mexico.  Those are RPI killers and bring down the whole league.  They'll stabilize eventually because of the level of some of the programs, but this might be another rough one.

Oh well, at least they have hot chicks.

1.  CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS.  Unlike the majority of the team's in the Pac-12, Cal managed to avoid getting hit with the big curse of graduations/NBA defections and as such they should be the best team in the conference this year, despite the fact that Justin Cobbs is probably going to be their starting point guard.  And Cobbsy should have plenty of opportunity for assists with Cal bringing back a lot of fire power - Jorge Gutierrez, Harper Kamp, and Allen Crabbe are all back and all averaged over 13 points per game last season.  Of course, Cal was also a pretty terrible defensive team last year and lost their best inside presence, so it's not like they're going to run away with anything here.  And speaking of running.........

2.  UCLA BRUINS.  Just like Washington, UCLA was also hit pretty hard in the losing players department.  Replacing Malcolm Lee and Tyler Honeycutt won't be easy, but luckily the Bruins have plenty coming back and a bumper crop of newcomers to help ease the transition.   Interestingly, of the newcomers the only freshman is SG Norman Powell (#69 overall on Rivals), but he's been called a Jrue Holliday type athlete, so he should be pretty damn impressive.  The newcomers most key to the Bruins' season are the Wear twins, 6-10 former McDonald's All-Americans who transferred over from North Carolina.  Despite their identical size, their skill sets put one at the 4 and one at the 3, adding some extra flexibility.  As long as they get quality point guard play from Lazeric Jones they'll be at the top end of the Pac.  And I wrote all that without mentioning their best player, Reeves Nelson, who is like what Brian Cardinal or Dusty Rychart would have been if they had actual talent.  So yeah, UCLA is fairly loaded, much like myself (booze not money).

3.  WASHINGTON HUSKIES.  Washington was hit hard by graduations and early defections, losing their three best players in PG Isaiah "Captain Circus Ball" Thomas, Justin Holiday, and Matthew Bryan-Amaning.  No need to panic however, because with Lorenzo Romar still coaching and Abdul Gaddy still around the sweet Circus Ball days should continue.  And thank god.  Really, if you haven't taken in a Washington basketball game lately you owe it to yourself to.  Two of my favorite memories of the last 2 tournaments are watching them play New Mexico and North Carolina.  The tempo is just out of this world.  Oh, and Washington also signed another fast as hell guard in Tony Wroten, so fire up the band!    

4.  ARIZONA WILDCATS.  This sounds pretty familiar at this point, but Zona is yet another Pac-12 team losing a bunch of talent from last year with not only Derrick Williams but also Lamont Jones gone.  Fortunately they're bringing in an excellent class to help out, highlighted by the backcourt duo of PG Josiah Turner (#2 PG, #11 overall) and SG Nick Johnson (#4 SG, #18 overall).  Turner should keep Arizona's traditional of top PG play alive and I'd bet this is the best incoming backcourt in America, but Arizona's lack of impact returning players will hold them down, and their improvement will be the difference between the NCAA and NIT this year.

5.  STANFORD CARDINAL.  Stanford loses their leading scorer, Jeremy Green, to the NBA Draft even though he's a dummkopf and didn't get drafted, but luckily for them they have Chasson Randle (#78 recruit) coming on and ready to step in to his starting position after choosing the Cardinal over Illinois and Purdue probably because he's a nerd but didn't want to go to Northwestern because they're terrible at everything always.  Everyone else is back from last year's mediocre team, and Stanford will likely end up in the same mediocre position as last season unless somebody shows a vast jump in ability.  The most likely candidate is 6-8 PF Josh Owens, a fifth-year senior whose numbers nearly doubled last year.

6.  OREGON DUCKS.  I don't know if it's the attrition from other teams or improvement on the Ducks' part, but suddenly Oregon is looking a little frisky under second-year coach Dana Altman.  I'm just kidding - it's the attrition.  But things are looking up, starting with the end of last season's championship in the CBI. . What?  It counts.  Anyway, the Ducks lose their leading scorer and rebounder from last year and their starting point guard, but have a bunch of quality adds including guard Jabari Brown, the #19 freshman according to Rivals, and possibly the best incoming shooter on the West Coast who turned down UCONN, Kansas, and Washington to come to Eugene.  Of course, your boyfriend Devoe Joseph becomes eligible after the first semester and will add some scoring pop in a more uptempo system.  Of course, the smart move would have been to sit out this year so he could have played all of next season, when the Ducks will be better and, you know, he'd be eligible for the whole year.  Then again, I suppose Devoe has never been known for thinking things through.

7.  ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS.  There's nothing more fun than watching players from Minnesota light it up for other teams and this might be your best chance outside of Iowa State.  Trent Lockett led the Sun Devils in scoring last season at 13.4 per game, and with the team's 2nd, 3rd, and 4th leading scorers all gone ASU might look to Lockett to be less a part of the offense than the majority of the offense.  He doubled his scoring average from his freshman to sophomore year, so he could be up for the challenge.  The two guys who really need to step up are guard Kaela King and forward Carrick Felix.  King was a much heralded and celebrated get for the Sun Devils as the #26 recruit in the country going into last year, but really had a disappointing year scoring over 10 points in a game just twice.  Felix originally committed to Duke before pulling out and and coming to Tempe, and like King needs to live up to his pedigree if ASU is going to compete for an NCAA bid this year.

8.  WASHINGTON STATE COUGARS.  Losing a guy like Klay Thompson, who did everything for your team and led the conference in scoring, is always going to sting but you can try to prepare because it was pretty obvious odds were better than 50/50 he'd be heading to the NBA.  What makes it worse is when DeAngelo Castro - double-digit scorer, leading rebounder, and second in the conference in FG percentage - bolts as well to head play professionally in Turkey.  They still have some fire power with second leading scorer and noted chucker Faisel Aden returning to throw the ball at the rim, but the key will be to see if he and junior PG Reggie Moore can co-exist.  Moore looked like a future star in his freshman year, but after Aden arrived he regressed with both Aden and Thompson needing the ball constantly.  If Moore can figure out his role that could be the difference between my 9th place prediction and as high as 7th.

9.  OREGON STATE BEAVERS.  I thought last year the Beavers had a shot to return to relevance for the first time since the days of Corey Benjamin, but alas, it was not meant to be, but at least they had the decency to let everyone know right away by losing to Seattle, Texas Southern, and Utah Valley before the season was a month old.  Just like Gary Sinise I won't get fooled again, but it is hard not to like their guards in Roberto Nelson and Jared Cunningham who are about as athletic as can be with Cunningham averaging nearly three steals per game last season, good enough for fifth in the country.  Really though, this was a bad team last year who did almost nothing well (other than steal the ball), last year's leading assist man averaged just 2.4 per game and is a 280 lb. power forward, and they lost one of their best players from last season with nothing real impressive waiting to step in.  So yeah, not a sleeper.

10.  USC TROJANS.  Last year USC made the tournament on the backs of their twin towers Nikola Vucevic and Alex Stephenson and solid guard play from the trio of Jio Fontan, Maurice Jones, and Donte Smith.  Now both of the bigs are gone along with Smith, and Fontan broke his knee off during the team's trip to Brazil, leaving just Jones and 8 other scholarship players (they also have two transfers eating up schollys who won't be eligible until next year and a season-ending shoulder injury to another guy), only one of whom has played in more than 6 games in his career.  Jones will have a little bit of help coming in with former Iowa forward Aaron Fuller becoming eligible this year and a big JuCo center coming in to rave reviews, but the only way USC is going to do much this year is with their usual solid defense, but not even that will be enough to make them post season relevant this year.   

11.  COLORADO BUFFALOES.  Every so often things come together for even the most moribund of programs and unheralded players improve, diamonds in the rough shine, and for one brief year a school that rarely makes its mark on the basketball world has a huge year.  Unfortunately when that happened for Colorado they somehow managed to bumblefuck it up and ended up in the NIT.  Now their four leading scorers are gone, including two of the better players in school history in Alec Burks and Cory Higgins, and Colorado prepares for the basement once again, but at least it's a brand new shiny basement.  Andre Roberson is a great athlete who led the team in rebounding, blocks, and steals last year and that's pretty much where the positives stop.  I heard it's a fun town though.

12.  UTAH UTES.  Remember when Majerus had Utah running along as a major western power?  Well that's not really relevant here.  Utah fired their coach after four straight losing seasons, which then sent four major contributors from last year's team will eligibility remaining heading for the transfer door which, along with graduations, means a terrible Utah team will now be missing 5 of their top 6 scorers from last season.  They do get back #2 leading scorer Josh Watkins at 15 per game and have a couple of assets most teams don't in a pair of 7-footers in David Foster and Josh Washburn.  Neither is particularly athletic or skilled, but you can't teach size so they'll grab rebounds, block shots, and probably make at least 50% of their lay-ups.


Other previews:
Big 12
ACC
Atlantic 10

Pac-10 College Basketball 2010 Preview

Last year was nearly a disaster for the Pac-10, where getting even two teams NCAA bids was looking like it might not happen even late in the year, but this year things should be a little better.  Washington and Arizona should be among the elite teams in the nation, and a number of other teams should be improved.  Of course, that's basically the scouting report from last year, just replace Arizona with Cal, and that was a struggle, so who knows.  These guys play their games so late that nobody is watching anyway.  Except degenerate gamblers.  Hi.

1.  Washington Huskies.  One thing is for certain, the Huskies play an exciting brand of basketball.  I remember being in Chicago for their game against New Mexico, and just being mesmerized by how fast the pace of the game was.  Me, Bogart, and Snacks had all bet the over, so each time little tiny Isaiah Thomas got the ball, sprinted down court past all the Lobos and made a layup we cheered and fell in love with him a little bit more.  The game ended up being a blowout, so the pace slackened and that over never cashed, but the moral of the story is that Washington is awesome.  Quincy Pondexter is gone, but Justin Holiday should step in fine, and their three guard lineup of Thomas, Venoy Overton, and Abdul Gaddy are as good as it gets.  Rather than fighting for a bid like last year, the Huskies should have theirs locked up by January.

2.  Arizona Wildcats.  Arizona's streak of 25 straight NCAA Tournament bids was snapped last season, but they should be back again after losing only the disappointing Nic Wise, who never made the leap they were looking for last season.  Derrick Williams was terrific in his freshman season, averaging 16 pts and 7 boards per game while shooting 57% and looking straight dominant at times, with 23 points or more five times last season.  Williams is surrounded by plenty of other talent, but replacing Wise, who might not have been great but was certainly good, at the point is going to be the real key to the season.  Lamont Jones came in last season with a good pedigree but struggled at times.  If he hasn't improved this prediction is going to look awfully silly.  Might end up being the first prediction I've ever whiffed on - ever.

3.  UCLA Bruins.  Despite what seems to be near constant defections, whether to the NBA or to other programs, over the last few years, UCLA does seem to be on the way back.  Looking at just the stats of the returnees you wouldn't be impressed, but these guys have talent.  Tyler Honeycutt (last year's Rivals #28 overall) is well on his way to becoming a do everything type stud, Malcolm Lee really started to come into his own last year (12 pts, 3 ast per game), and nerdy Reeves Nelson (11pts, 6 rebs as a frosh) is already showing an impressive array of low-post moves. Add to that group Rivals #18 recruiting class and they're looking to be in good shape, assuming people stop transferring.  Plus in the good news department, their top recruit, center Josh Smith (#23 overall) who weighed in at 305 lbs. has reportedly lost a bunch of weight and is in (relatively) great shape.  Plus, don't you just feel better when UCLA is good?  It's just icky otherwise.  

4.  Washington State Cougars.  They're getting an awful lot of press due to Klay Thompson, which makes sense because he's probably the only player in the league who might be better than Derrick Williams from Zona.  His low shooting percentage (41%) and high turnovers (3.4 TO to 2.3 assists) are the only blemishes on his record, but those numbers should improve with better/improved teammates in Pullman this year.  The real question is will he have better teammates, because outside of point guard Reggie Moore everybody is a questions mark.  In a normal year in a normal conference, one great player, one good player, and a bunch of questions wouldn't make you the fourth best team, but the Pac-10 is down once again, so Wazzou should be in play for an NCAA berth.

5.  USC Trojans.  They definitely have a great inside tandem, maybe the best in the conference, with Nikola Vucevic and Alex Stepheson in the paint.  Vucevic was called "the best true center in the conference" in an article I saw, and his numbers bear that out as he averaged nearly a triple double last year (10.7 pts/9.4 rebs per) and blocked more than one shot per game, while Stepheson was one of the highest rated recruits in the country coming out of high school and on his way to North Carolina in 2006.  He hasn't quite put it all together yet, but he's got one last chance.  This team will be especially interesting when Jio Fontan, an outstanding point guard who transferred from Fordham and will be eligible mid-season, joins the team to balance out the inside strength with a perimeter threat.


6.  Stanford Cardinal.  Losing Landry Jones, who led the conference in scoring and was second in rebounding last year, is definitely a bit of a buzzkill, but at least they have Jeremy Green back to soften the blow (16.6 ppg) as well as three other starters, and they're going to need every bit of that experience because everybody else on the roster is either a walk-on, a benchwarmer, or a freshman.  There is certainly some talent mixed up with these freshman - PF Dwight Powell is Rivals #25 overall recruit, while SG Anthony Brown is #65 - so there's certainly some upside here.  If the youngsters are ready to play the Cardinal could move up a few spots.  Plus this conference sucks, so anybody with a pulse could move up a few spots.

7.  Arizona State Sun Devils.  They certainly like to shoot the three, leading the conference last year in attempts by over 100 over the second place team, and they also lost both their penetrating point guard and their only inside presence, and are left with just five scholarship players from last year back this year, two of whom are dandies who only shoot threes.  With your #1 PG and #1 post player gone, how open are those looks going to be?  Now, some of the newcomers have talent and could step in - Keala King is the #8 PG in the country according to rivals and could step in at the point immediately - but there is still a distinct lack of big men that will limit how much ASU can accomplish.  But at least they still have the hottest chicks in the land.  Seriously, check out the internet sometime.

8.  Oregon State Beavers.  They looked to have a little momentum going into last year and were considered a bit of a sleeper in a weak Pac-10, but unfortunately couldn't capitalize, and now nobody cares again.  That center with the weird name is gone, the Tarvers (no relation to Miles) are gone.  Calvin Haynes is apparently a very good offensive player but I wouldn't know because I don't think I've watched an OSU game since the days of Corey Benjamin, partially because they're never on TV and partially because they're usually boring and/or bad.  I have, however, giggled about the nickname Beavers recently.  Because I'm 12.

9.  California Golden Bears.  I'm not sure any team, outside of Kentucky, lost as much from last year as the Bears, and this year is going to be rough.  Jerome Randle and Patrick Christopher might have been the two best guards in the conference last season, and they're both gone, as are third-leading scorer Theo Robertson and only viable inside presence (and fourth leading scorer) Jamal Boykin.  But, as Denise Fleming (who is not a tampon) said in Can't Hardly Wait, "Don't look back, you should never look back", so instead let's talk about what the Bears have going for them this year.  It's nothing.

10.  Oregon Ducks.  I'll say this about the Pac, it's easy to pick the last place team because the Ducks are an absolute disaster right now - like Iowa, but worse.  After Ernie Kent was fired there was such a mass exodus of players that I can't even keep up, which is made extra difficult because I don't pay particular attention to Oregon basketball.  Four of the players transferring were bench players with varying degrees of playing time, but Michael Dunigan - who just signed to play in Israel - would have been their top returning post player.  The lack of depth will be exacerbated by de-commits by incoming freshman (I can't find a list anywhere, but I know there have been some) leaving the Ducks with just 9 scholarship players, most of which are pretty mediocre.  New coach Dana Altman has already signed a very good class for 2011, but according to NCAA rules none of those players can play this year.

Other Previews:
ACC
Big 12

Week in Review - 12/21/09

I'm not going to bother with the Vikings or the fact that AP only got 12 carries last night (3 in the second half) against a terrible run defense when it was clearing that dropping back to pass only resulted in Julius Peppers destroying the pocket .2 seconds after the snap.  Instead I'll just say it's pretty weird that Brittany Murphy died.  $50 says Tiger Woods was involved somehow.


WHO WAS AWESOME

1.  The Atlantic 10.  I've enjoyed ripping the A-10 here before, mostly because Dayton fans are such spazzes, but it's time to recognize that the A-10 is clearly better than the Pac, and might be better than the SEC at this point as well, and this weekend just put more evidence on the pile.  On Saturday Richmond beat #13 Florida, Temple beat an undefeated Seton Hall, Umass beat Memphis, and Xavier lost controversially at the wire to Butler - the same Xavier team that already beat Cincinnati earlier this year.  This saturday wasn't a fluke, either.  Richmond has wins over Missouri and ODU (who beat Georgetown this weekend) to go with that win against the Gators.  Temple beat Villanova earlier this week to pair with that win over Seton Hall and also beat Siena and Va Tech.  Charlotte is 9-1 and has a win over Louisville.  Dayton has wins over ODU and Georgia Tech, Rhode Island is 8-1 with wins over Boston College and Providence, Duquesne beat Iowa, St. Bonnie's beat Cleveland State, and while George Washington and LaSalle don't have signature wins, they do have good records.  With the Pac sucking so hard and the SEC doing nothing of consequence outside of Kentucky, the A-10 might managed to snag 4-5 bids.  Seriously.     

2.  Florida State.  I'm starting to think you have to look at these guys as a nice sleeper, particularly after they went to Georgia Tech and walked out with a 66-59 victory (side note:  Paul Hewitt might be the worst coach ever).  That runs the Seminoles record to 10-2 with their only losses being on the road to good teams (Florida and Ohio State).  And this is with star freshman Michael Snaer still trying to hit his stride (that 1-to-3 assist-to-turnover ratio is pretty horrendous).  They turn the ball over way too much (18 per game), but play excellent defense (#6 in def. efficiency) and have great size (all major contributors over 6-4) to go along with great depth (9 guys play 14 minutes or more) and balanced scoring (five guys score 7 or more a game).  The guard play is a little troublesome and somebody needs to step up to be the point guard here, but FSU is a team worth keeping an eye on. 

3.  Jon Scheyer.  I truly hate praising any Dukie not named Ricky Price (Coach K Basketball on the Sega, check it out), but Scheyer has really done an incredible job this year.  Not really a point guard but forced into it by Duke's lack of an actual ball-handler, he's been playing out of his mind this year and this past week is just representative of that.  In Duke's wins this week over Gardner-Webb and Gonzaga (by a combined 189-109 score) he averaged 28 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 8.5 assists per game while shooting 64% from the field, 69% from three, and 94% from the free-throw line.  And what's amazing is these numbers aren't that big of a jump from this season averages of 18-4-6 with just one TO per game.  Yeah, I'd say he's having a pretty good season - he's 10th in the country in Ken Pomeroy's Offensive Efficiency Rating (Blakey is the top Gopher ranking 122nd).  Will Duke be hurt, however, by not having a true point guard once we get to the tournament and thus get knocked out earlier than their seed would predict once again?  Yes.  

4.  Hassan Whiteside.   Ok, so a week when Marshall beats Brescia and High Point is maybe not the ideal team to write up their stud center, but I've been waiting on him every since I saw a top 50 recruit had inexplicably signed with the Thundering Herd and a week where he posted a triple-double seems like it's good enough.  Oh yeah, I forgot to mention that Whiteside put up a 17 point, 14 rebound, 11 block game against Brecia (which, to be fair, was a 50 point win for Marshall, but still), and then followed that up against the hated High Point Panthers with a 13-10-6 performance (while the Herd won 109-76).  His season averages of 12-9-5 are pretty incredible, although it's a bit troubling that in his only game against a decent opponent (ODU, Marshall's only loss) he put up a 4-5-1.  It will be interesting to see how he and the team fare once C-USA play gets started, but we may get a bit of an idea Tuesday when Marshall plays North Carolina.  For now, he's getting the coveted "underrated awesome player" alert status.  I reserve the right to revoke this if he looks like garbage against the Heels.

5.  Darrelle Revis.  There's something fascinating going on here, and it's that Revis (of the NY Jets) has become the premier NFL coverage cornerback (sorry Champ), but I'm not sure how many people are aware of it.  It's pretty unbelieveable, but if you look at it he covers the #1 receiver on the opposing team (different from how Bailey or Asomugha take one side of the field, he follows the other team's #1 where he goes) and shuts him down.  Here are the Jets' opponents, the #1 receiver, and his stats that week going up against Revis:

1 - Houston - Andre Johnson - 4-35-0
2 - New England - Randy Moss - 4-24-0 (+1 pick)
3 - Tennessee - Justin Gage - 4-37-0
4 - New Orleans - Marques Colston - 2-33-0
5 - Miami - Davonne Bess - 3-18-0
6 - Buffalo - Terrell Owens - 3-13-0
7 - Oakland - Louis Murphy - 4-58-0 (+1 pick)
8 - Miami - Bess - 4-18-0
9 - Jacksonville - Mike Sims-Walker -3-49-1
10 - New England - Moss - 5-34-1
11 - Carolina - Steve Smith - 1-5-0 (+2 picks)
12 - Buffalo - Owens - 3-31-0 (+1 pick)
13 - Tampa - Antonio Bryant - 2-22-0 (+1 pick)
14 - Atlanta - Roddy White - 4-33-0

That's amazing.  I didn't pay this close of attention to any of the other shutdown guys of the past (and like I said, Bailey and Asomugha covered sides not specific players), but I don't remember ever seeing something like this (was Deion this good?).  I'm not going to go into all the play-by-plays or whatever and figure out exactly how many plays he was covering who and if all these catches were against or figuring out if any catches against him were made by other players, so let's just assume this is completely accurate.  That would mean nobody this season caught more than five balls in a game against him, nobody gained more than 58 yards, and he only gave up two touchdowns all year while picking off six balls and taking one of them back for his own score, and he's also fifth on the team in solo tackles.

So I'm warning those of you who made your fantasy championship next week - don't start Reggie Wayne.  Trust me.


WHO SUCKED

1.  Tennessee.  How the hell does this happen?  And by this, I mean the Volunteers going to USC and getting absolutely destroyed by a terrible Trojan team who already sports losses to Nebraska and Loyola-Marymount on the season and barely beat Idaho State at home.  Yet they were able to beat Tennessee by 22.  I don't get it.  USC is one of the worst shooting teams in major college basketball this year (42.8% this season, worst in the Pac 10) and Tennessee is a top 30 defensive based on total defensive efficiency, but the Trojans scored 77 while shooting 55% - makes zero sense.  To make it worse, the Vols managed just five assists for the game and shot 2-22 from three despite USC having allowed opponents to shoot 39.6% from behind the line this year, 311th in the NCAA.  I just don't get it sometimes.  Trying to figure out college basketball is like trying to figure out a woman - it ain't gonna happen and you're just going to get frustrated, and trying to apply logic or reason just makes things worse.  

2.  Deonta Vaughn.  Ok, you know I'm a huge Cincy fan, and despite their embarrassing loss to UAB earlier this week I still think they're a legit final four contender, but they sure as hell can't do it without Vaughn and it's time to stop ignoring what's going on here - especially because he's on my fantasy team.  I know the team is deeper this year, and suddenly they have other guys who can be "the man" like Yancy Gates and Lance Stephenson, but Vaughn was the cold-blooded shooter last year who knocked down every big shot possible.  But he's invisible now.  His scoring is down from 15.3 per game last year to 10.2 this year, his assists are down, and he's shooting under 30% from three.  This week was a perfect example, with Vaughn shooting 2-9 (1-7 from three) and scoring just 7 points and turning over five times, and then even against Lipscomb on Saturday he was only able to muster up just five points on, once again, 2-9 shooting (1-8 from three).  Perhaps the worst part of this is he's turning into a Voshon Lenard - abandoning his all-around game to become nothing but a three-point jump shooter.  Last year,  60% of his attempts were from three, and this year that number has risen to 66% - not much of a change, but the in the last two games 83% of his attempts are from behind the line, a disturbing trend, and something that needs to get straightened out if the Bearcats are going to cash my 200-1 bet.

3.  Seton Hall.  So much for all that Hall Hype, eh?  I guess when you're 8-0 and scored 134 points in your last game people get a bit excited, even if that 134 came against VMI - a school morally opposed to playing defense - and your 8-0 includes exactly one decent win (over Cornell) and a bunch of wins over retarded schools.  Well, the house of cards came crashing down on Saturday when the Hall lost at home to Temple, their first decent opponent of the year and they aren't even very good.  Jeremy Hazell shot 4-17 and 1-11 from three, and Robert Mitchell was 1-8.  This is the poster team for beating up on crappy cupcake teams.  They are going to get destroyed in the Big East.  I can't wait to bet against them.

4.  Oregon State.  Holy crap, how could this team have been picked in the fourth through sixth range by almost anybody who picks this kind of stuff?  They dropped a game on Wednesday to the horrible UIC Flames, giving them a stellar 4-5 record (which is now 5-5 after they actually beat Miss Valley State on Saturday) which includes losses not only to the Flames (ranked #252 at kenpom.com), but also Sacramento State (#290) and Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (#116).  Just an unrecoverable string of events.  They have gone from cute little sleeper to make the NCAA Tournament for the first time in like a billion years to a bottom of the barrel team in a bottom of the barrel conference.  Hey, here's a hint:  if you're going to run the Princeton offense and minimize your possessions (tempo rank = 336th in the nation), you need to be efficient with them, you really can't turn the ball over 26.4% of the times you have it (340th in the country).  That combination is so laughable, I almost wish I had made it up. 

5.  Anthony Tucker.  Interesting and pretty not surprising news this weekend coming out of Iowa.  In case you didn't hear, Anthony Tucker of Iowa (and formerly of a high school in Minnesota that I don't quite recall and don't feel like looking up) was arrested for public intoxication.  No, you're not reliving groundhog day, this is a new story.  Yes, he was arrested just 13 months ago on the same charge.  If you recall, after returning to the team from that suspension he was hit with mono (allegedly) and missed a bunch of games, came back, and then got suspended for the rest of the year due to academics.  Now he's suspended indefinitely, and according to the article I read his facebook status currently reads "I'm outta here."

Looks like another example of million-dollar talent with a five-cent head (actually, in Tucker's case it's probably more like $50,000 talent), and is yet another blow to an Iowa program that can't really afford another hit.  Talk about a fall.  Not that Iowa was ever considered an "elite" program, but they were very Gopher-like in that they seemed to fluctuate and made a decent run every 3-4 years or so (I mean Gopher-like pre-Monson, of course), but I'm not sure how they're getting out of this current sinkhole.  It's been a mass exodus of players leaving Iowa City the last three years, from Tyler Smith and Tony Freeman to Jake Kelly and Jeff Peterson, and Lickliter seems to be restocking with quantity, not quality (between 2009 and 2010 classes he's bringing in seven 3-star and 1 2-star players).  Actually, Iowa hasn't signed a four-star recruit since Smith in 2006.  This is starting to feel a lot like a Monson situation down in Iowa City.  I guess if I was in that mess I'd get drunk all the time too.

Oh who am I kidding, I do that anyway. 

This picture is almost an almost perfect one of him, if only there was more beer:

NCAA Basketball Preview: The Pac 10

You know what I really dig about this conference, other than the beautiful weather and smoking hot chicks, is that every team is paired up with another from the same area, and they always play the same teams in the same week.  You have UCLA/USC, Arizona/Arizona St, Washington/Wash St., Oregon/Oregon St., and Cal/Stanford, and they always travel together.  So like UCLA would play Arizona on a Thursday and Arizona State on a Saturday, while USC would play Ariz State on the Thursday and Arizona on Saturday.  I don't know why, but I find that very cool and interesting.  Probably because I'm a nerd.

With all the Gopher news, the Gopher game, and the World Series going on this week, not to mention my award-winning interview with Larry and Magic, I haven't had a whole lot of research time, so this will be shorter than usual.  And let's be honest, nobody reads my previews anyway.  I could post bible verses for each team's synopsis and it would go unnoticed unless somebody was searching for "Thou shalt not suffer a witch to live", but that person would have plenty of other problems anyway.


1.  Washington.  I've been waiting for this team to make a big leap for a few years now, and with the Pac down overall this might be the year they finally pull it off.  The loss of Jon Brockman to graduation leaves them with a huge hole in the paint, but their guards should be top notch with Rivals #13 Abdul Gaddy joining sophomore Isaiah Thomas.  I'm a huge Quincy Pondexter, mainly because he has a funny name, but with those two distributing the ball he should be poised for a breakout year.

2.  California.  Completely unheralded, but with a very solid backcourt with Jerome Randle the penetrator/scorer/distributor and Patrick Christopher the shooter - both were all Pac-10 last season.  PF Jamal Boykin may be the key to them being an NCAA Tournament contender as opposed to just an NCAA Tournament team again.  He was a big time recruit who had signed on with Duke before transferring to Berkeley.  He hasn't exactly lived up to his potential, but he has improved every season thus far.  Now in his senior year, it's his last chance to shine.

3.  UCLA.  In terms of scoring and minutes returning, there's not much, and some communist is their leading returner in both.  In terms of talent, there's plenty here.  Four top 100 recruits this year join four top 50s from last year.  In other words, they are probably going to be very good, but also very inconsistent.  They also needed a three pointer with 16 seconds left to beat an NAIA school earlier this week in an exhibition, so looks like they're starting slow, but should be pretty solid by midseason or so.

4.  Oregon State.  Not a misprint.  The Beavers should be pretty decent this year, but I've never heard of a single player on that team, assuming Wes Washington and Corey Benjamin are gone.  I know that was years ago but come on, Vasquez is still on Maryland and I'm pretty sure his freshman year begin with 19.  They play the Princeton style offense.  Yawn.

5.  Arizona.  It was looking even worse for the Wildcats this year, but Sean Miller made some very big freshman signings in the late signing period, and it will be up to those freshmen how good Arizona will be this year.  They could be first, they could be 8th, but fifth sounds right.  Nic Wise could easily end up leading the conference in both scoring and assists. 

6.  Oregon.  The Ducks lost 23 games last year, in no small part because their point guard, Earl Boykins wannabe Tajuan Porter, shouldn't be a point guard, what with his more turnovers than assists - and just 1.8 assists per game and his aggressive shooting (7th in the conference in FG attempts despite under 40% shooting).  The good news is they are supposed to have some JuCo point guard who can come in and run the show.  Even so, Porter will need to avoid the 6-15 type nights that popped up regularly last year.

7.  USC.  The Trojans lost three players to the NBA draft and, amidst scandal, lost nearly every recruit they signed this offseason, but there is still some talent here.  They get their top scorer back in guard Dwight Lewis, who outscored Taj Gibson, Demar Derozan, and Daniel Hackett last season, as well as Marcus Johnson, a transfer from UCONN.  Power forwad Alex Stepheson was a top fifty player when he signed with North Carolina in 2006 and a minor contributor on the team before deciding to transfer back to L.A. to be closer to his family.  On a team this thin, he'll have every opportunity to justify that rank.

8.  Washington State.  The cougars crazy run of boring everybody to tears and winning when the other team fell asleep should finally come to an end, with three starters and major contributors leaving as well as captain boring Tony Bennett leaving for Virginia.  I did read somewhere that Klay Thompson is projected to be the best NBAer currently in the Pac 10, so if you have a chance to catch one of their games it sounds like that would be a good time.

9.  Arizona State.  I just read something that picked the Sun Devils as fourth in the Pac and I gotta tell ya I don't get it.  Losing James Harden and Jeff Pendergaph is a huge blow, especially to a team with a so-so recruiting class coming in.  Their only double-digit scorer coming back, Rihards Kuksiks, is a three point sniper who led the conference in made 3s while shooting 44%.  The only problem is that 80% of his attempts last year were from behind the arc, and you know what helps get open three point looks?  Playing with James Harden and Jeff Pendergraph.  I don't know man, I just don't see it.

10.  Stanford.  I've always hated this program, I still hate this program, and I hope they stay in last place forever. 



Other Previews
Conference USA
Atlantic 10 
Mountain West 
Atlantic Coast 
Big Twelve
Big East 
SEC

COLLEGE HOOPS PREVIEW: The Pac 10

Yep, another preview of another conference, and if you don't like it you can go straight to hell.

1. UCLA
Losing Westbrook, Love, and Mbah a Moute would cripple most teams, or at least get them to slow down, but UCLA just reloads with the #1 recruiting class in the nation and takes aim at a fourth consecutive Final Four. Darren Collison and Josh Shipp are back, so the back court is solid. If that's not enough, they'll add Jrue Holliday (#2 Rivals 150), Jerime Anderson (#37), and Malcolm Lee (#47) to give them one of the best groups of guards in the country. There are a few questions in the front court, where they have depth in James Keefe, Michael Roll, and Alfred Aboya, but it remains to be seen if any of them have star power. The most likely breakout player in the front court is yet another freshman, either center J'Mison Morgan (#25) or forward Drew Gordon (#45). Even if none of those guys are a major talent, this team is loaded.

2. USC
OJ Mayo is gone to the Wolves Grizzlies, along with Davon Jefferson and Angelo Johnson, who cried when coach Tim Floyd said he couldn't guarantee a starting spot, but they are being replaced by maybe the top freshman in the country in wing Demar DeRozan, who could be the second most athletic player in the country behind Rico Tucker. Daniel Hackett was at times the Trojans best player, and he's back along with force inside Taj Gibson, so they'll be loaded in all areas. Plus, they have little Romeo, so that's nice.

3. Washington
Yes, Washington. The Huskies were a very talented team last year (wins over UCLA and Arizona) but just couldn't quite seem to put forth the consistent effort needed to grab an NCAA berth. With just three point floppy haired jesus Ryan Appleby gone from last season, they're in a great position this year. Jon Brockman is back to own the paint, and guards Quincy Pondexter and Justin Dentmon are top talents just waiting to break out (of course, they've been waiting for two years). One of their biggest weaknesses was point guard play, but incoming freshman Isaiah Thomas (not that one) is a top 100 recruit and should help.

4. Arizona State
It feels weird to put the Sun Devils this high on the list, but they're here for a reason, mainly James Harden deciding to return for his sophomore season. Harden can score from outside or in, and shoots a very high percentage for a guard. One of the best players in the conference. Nearly the entire team is back from last year's bubble reject, highlighted by center Jeff Pendergraph and guard Ty Abbott. If Jerren Shipp can improve to near the level of his brothers, they'll be that much more dangerous.

5. Arizona
First Brandon Jennings heads to Europe, then Lute Olson retires followed by three high level recruits for 2009 dropping out their commitments. It's been a tough offseason for the Wildcats, but they still have enough this season to be in the NCAA conversation, led by Chase Budinger and Jordan Hill. Budinger is an elite scorer, but is a little soft, and Hill is an absolute beast in the paint. The keys this season will be the play of point guard Nic Wise, without Jerryd Bayless to help out, as well as freshman center Jeff Withey (#36 Rivals), the only real big man option beyond Hill.

6. Washington State
I'm only putting them this high because their style of play is maddeningly annoying and will certainly get them a handful of wins against teams that get frustrated, but the Cougars are in a bit of trouble this season after losing Robbie Cowgill, Derrick Low, and Kyle Weaver. Aron Baynes is big and almost as fat as that dude from Santa Clara, but he's effective. Taylor Rochestie is back as well, and will be asked to score more with all that firepower gone from last year. The recruiting class is deep, if not overly talented, with Mychal Thompson's son Clay the only real standout (#51).

7. Cal
How do you replace Ryan Anderson and Devon Hardin? You don't, you mostly just cry. Second leading scorer Patrick Christopher is back, but it will be interesting to see how he does being the #1 guy instead of being back in the back. Point guard Jerome Randle is also back, but his assist/turnover ratio of 1.2 shows he needs a lot of polish. The Golden Bears really need Duke transfer Jamal Boykin to live up to his potential. Freshman guard DJ Seeley (#58) is a scorer.

8. Stanford
The Lopez twins both bolted, even though if he stayed this would have absolutely become Robin's team, and that's pretty much all the Cardinal talent. Guards Anthony Goods and Mitch Johnson are adequate, but that's all they are. Forward Lawrence Hill is probably their best player, but his numbers dropped massively from his sophomore to junior year. He'll need to recapture his form of two years ago for Stanford to be at all relevant.

9. Oregon
Major talent leaving, with Malik Hairston, Maarty Leunen, and Bryce Taylor all gone. A very solid recruiting class, highlighted by big man Michael Dunigan and wing Matthew Humphrey gives hope, but the scoring load will fall to little man Tajuan Porter. If you've seen him play, he's only 5-6 but makes up for it by chucking the ball from three every single time he touches it. Without those other scorers and their leadership, expect him to lead the nation in three point attempts and ill advised shots, and probably turnovers too (1.0 A/TO last year) making Scottie Reynolds look under control. Fat Gopher reject Josh Crittle is a freshman here too.

10. Oregon State
Isn't it about time to transfer Oregon State to the Big West or the the WCC or something? You could bring in Gonzaga, except they don't play football so that doesn't work. What about BYU or Boise State? Not coastal enough? I don't know then, but something needs to be done. The Beavers haven't been relevant since Corey Benjamin was there, and I'm not even sure they were relevant then, other than in the McDonald's All-American Dunk Contest, which Benjamin even lost to Lester Earl. This year's team? Um, well, they have two starters with the last name Tarver, Seth and Josh, so let's pretend they're Miles Tarver's brothers. Recruiting class? Ranked dead last in the Pac 10.