Hey the Preseason Top 25 polls just came out. You know what that means, time to write about how bad all these teams suck. I'm taking a look at the AP poll instead of the Coaches poll because I chose it at random. Spoiler alert: The Gophers aren't in here.
1. NORTH CAROLINA. They only lose J.P. Tokoto who entered the NBA Draft for some reason but that's fine because I think he mostly made people mad at his shooting. Marcus Paige is back and he's really good when he's not being terrible. They had zero outside shooting other than him last year, and unless one of the freshman can shoot (one supposedly can) or somebody else learned how to hit a 3-pointer in the offseason this is not the best team in basketball. Also I just read Paige is out for 3-4 weeks with an injury so maybe that will lead to somebody else being good. SPOILER: nope.
2. KENTUCKY. Hell I don't know.
3. MARYLAND. It's hard to wrap my head around Maryland being this high, but I can't argue with it. They were a 4 seed in the tournament last year and even though they didn't make it out of the weekend they were still a solid team. Melo Trimble came back and might be the best player in the conference, they added two big time transfers, and got a late commitment from Diamond Stone who is supposed to be awesome despite the ridiculous name and fills their only real hole. Still, three seems really freaking high.
4. KANSAS. Want to hear something that will blow your mind? Perry Ellis is back for another year. Even so, these guys are my pick for title winner. Ellis sucks but he's not completely useless, and even if he is Kansas has everybody back (except Kelly Oubre who was meh anyway) and they're adding two McDonald's All Americans who are both forwards. This team is deep as all hell, all they need is someone to make the leap. With so many above average players in both ability and pedigree you'd think somebody's going to do it, and if two or more do these guys will be really, really good. Bet on them. Do it. Go do it. They're like 10-1. Do it.
5. DUKE. Uh, you guys know they lost Tyus, Okafor, and Justice Winslow, right? This is all because Grayson Allen, who makes J.J. Redick look downright lovable, had that good stretch in the National Championship game, isn't it? Does he really seem like the kind of player who can carry a team for a while season. NOT BLOODY LIKELY. Good luck with him and one million freshmen. Oh, right, they got a transfer from Rice coming in too. Yes, Rice. The college. If you read any preview of Duke this year they call out a transfer from Rice as a huge positive. I am currently making a dismissive wanking motion.
6. VIRGINIA. Hoops nerds like to tell you that if you think Virginia basketball is boring, you don't really understand basketball. Well I understand basketball and I know what the pack line defense is and all that and I'm telling you - Virginia basketball is freaking boring as all hell. And basically the whole team is back again to be boring and annoying and get handjobs from announcers. Ugh. Stop already.
7. IOWA STATE. If you asked me to guess where Iowa State was rated I would have said like I don't know, maybe mid-20s or something so this is a bit of a surprise. But I guess Georges Niang is back which seems impossible and possibly illegal, and, you're not going to believe this, but the Cyclones get a couple of big deal transfers from other programs. Add that to almost the whole team being back and I guess I see why they're this high. They should be really fun and pretty good until one of their players gets suspended.
8. OKLAHOMA. The opposite of Virginia, these guys are fun as hell to watch and since Buddy Hield, who is basically a lock to lead the Big 12 in scoring, is back they probably will be again. They also ranked 8th in defensive points per possession, so it is actually possible to play fast, fun, and good defense all at the same time. Take notes, Cavaliers. Also, this is way too high for these guys.
9. GONZAGA. Lots of people say stuff like man Gonzaga is overrated, they stomp the WCC, get all this Final Four type buzz, and then flame out. Last year they finally made the Elite 8, which is definitely an accomplishment, but also just the second time they've gotten that far, the last coming in 1999. So I don't know that they've proved that they're anything more than a small conference bully. They've got a rock solid front court, but lose their entire back court so things could be rough early. This section was extremely boring.
10. WICHITA STATE. They have Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet back. That right there is enough to win the Missouri Valley. No really, you take those two and Greg Marshall and you could roll out of their with three toddlers and the Shockers would roll. Unfortunately it is both unsafe and illegal to play with toddlers so Wichita State will use real players to complement those two. I don't really feel like looking up who any of those players are, but since Wichita has been good for so long at this point I'm guessing they're probably pretty good.
11. VILLANOVA. God that sucked when these guys got bounced last year, and not just because they were my non-Kentucky pick to win. They were so freaking good. Then a dopey NC State team knocks them off. I suppose I shouldn't be surprised, that's kind of Villanova's thing. Also their thing: guards. And they have a bunch of them again. So expect the Wildcats to shoot a ton of three pointers, own the Big East, grab a high seed, and flame out early. It's what they do. Lesson learned.
12. ARIZONA. Stanley Johnson, T.J. McConnell, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, and Brandon Ashley are all gone. That is a lot of people to be gone. However Arizona is Arizona, and it must be nice to be Arizona, because they get a star transfer from Boston College and picked up one hell of a recruiting class, including stealing Allonzo Trier from the Gophers. Also, they still have Kaleb Tarczewski and he is awesome and looks like he would fight you. And you would die.
13. MICHIGAN STATE. Another team with a couple of big losses which catches a break with a big time transfer, ready to step right in. For Sparty it's Eron Harris who only scored over 17 points per game in his last season at West Virginia, no big whoop. I'm really fascinated by Lourawls Nairn (remember him?) here. He only took 8.5% of the team's shots when he was on the floor. The lowest Gopher with any real minutes played was Bakary Konate at 11.1%, which is actually way higher than Nairn. I only found two other Big Ten players under 10% last year (Jaylon Tate of Illinois and Jeremiah Kreisberg of Northwestern) but both played far fewer minutes than Nairn. So like, is that his thing? What does he do if nobody guards him? He's the anti-chucker, which in a way, is as fun as a real chucker. I love watching how teams guard Rajon Rondo - they don't. I hope that's what happens with Nairn.
14. CAL. This team could be like whoa. I bet them at 60-1 to win the whole thing this summer, and I still like them now down all the way at 20-1. They have a ton back from last year's team, not a great year, admittedly, and add two Top 10 recruits. Yes, that's TWO top 10 recruits. If the name on the jersey was Duke instead of Cal this would be a Top 5 team. Plus, I like Cuonzo Martin as a coach. This is my favorite sleeper this year.
15. INDIANA. Oh come on! Do we not play defense any more in basketball, because if this is offense only I would say the Hoosiers are too low, but overall? No chance. It's the same team. The only difference is they got some stud recruit center, but can one player suddenly take a swiss cheese defense and make it good? Or even passable? No. Maybe Antoine Broxsie back in the day, but nobody can make Yogi Ferrell look good on defense. Should score a lot of points though. Gopher/Hoosier games should be in the 160s.
16. UTAH. I know they have at least one, and maybe two, big giant tall guys, and that's generally a good start when it comes to basketsball. Ok I decided to check and they only have one, but he's really good you guys! His name is Jakob Poetl and he's a possible lottery pick who held Jahlil Okafor to 6 points and 4 turnovers in March. He can score, rebound, and block shots and now that Delon Wright is gone he should be the offenses focal point. Should be fun. No idea about all these other guys.
17. WISCONSIN. Oh come on! You're kidding me. Look, I love Nigel Hayes, I love him as much as I could ever love a Badger. I think he's most likely a more skilled Noah Vonleh and I loved Noah Vonleh and thanked Jehova every day that Tom Crean was such a terrible coach. But the Badgers are basically Hayes, Bronson Koenig who is whatever fine, and then nobody else. I know people say it's stupid to bet against the Badgers and Bo Ryan, but people like blood sausage too. People are morons. Badgers suck this year.
18. VANDERBILT. Here's another team I like, although I can also see them sucking. On paper it looks good - a potential lottery pick at center (Damian Jones) surrounded by shooters (Riley Lachance (remember him) and Wade Baldwin (him too) among others, and a team that really gelled as the season went on with most of the team back. Vandy started out 1-7 in SEC play, but closed out 8-2 and looked really good, so yeah, on paper this looks good. In reality, it's Vanderbilt so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
19. NOTRE DAME. Jerian Grant is gone, which is a fairly huge deal considering the game plan was generally "hey Jerian, go do everything for us." The back-up for that was, hey Pat Connaughton, you go do stuff instead but oops, he gone. Zach Auguste is a super stud, I'll give you that, and he's probably going to be better than Noah Vonleh, but somebody has to get him the ball. In summation, these guys suck.
20. UCONN. They have Amida Brimah who I love because he blocks like, every shot ever taken, and their transfer train is rolling, picking up Sterling Gibbs (who is kind of a dick) from Seton Hall to go with Rodney Purvis whom they stole from NC State last year or maybe the year before. Actually looking at this roster I've heard of like, everybody which seems goodish. How the hell is Omar Calhoun still in college basketball? That's insane. Also, I probably watch too much basketball.
21. LSU. One of my favorite sleepers this year. Tons of guard play back and they're bringing in the #1 recruit in the country and another big deal new guy too who just got eligible. As far as negatives go, I have a short list of what I call "dumb teams to never ever bet on" who are always dumb and do stupid stuff and lose when they shouldn't because they are dumb every year no matter what. LSU is on that list.
22. BAYLOR. Baylor still? I figured they'd drop off the face of the map with recruiting violations or something by now, but here we are. The front court has a monster in Rico Gathers who is basically a bigger Montrezl Harrell (yes bigger) without the jump shot, but their entire back court is gone. Oh what's that? A really young back court coached by Scott Drew? I smell some early season anti-Baylor wagers.
23. PURDUE. Another team I like, mainly because facing them is like going against a bunch of gigantic monsters from a Goosebumps book. A.J. Hammons is seven feet tall, 261 lbs., Isaac Haas is 7-2, 297 lbs., and incoming freshman Caleb Swanigan is 6-9, 260 lbs.. It would be pretty sweet if they figured out a way to play all three at the same time. I mean, it wouldn't make a lick of sense, but it would be pretty sweet. Anyway, Purdue plays pretty good defense, and it's probably going to be even better next season. They also can't shoot at all. So there are going to be some ugly, ugly games.
24. BUTLER. I tried to write about Butler like 4 times. That's probably enough.
25. MICHIGAN. Michigan loses nobody from last year's team, and that's good even though last year's team missed the tournament. That was more because Caris LeVert and Derrick Walton played only 37 combined games than Michigan being an actually crappy team, because I am learning John Beilein is a wizard who doesn't make crappy teams. They're still basically lacking any kind of skilled or capable big man and Zak Irvin is kind of wild out there, but this should be a pretty good team. Probably better than this ranking. Man, if Purdue could trade one of their big dudes for a shooter from Michigan, that would be pretty sweet. College sports needs trading, would be so awesome. Not like they care about the kids anyway, which is ok because neither do I. PLAY GAMES FOR MY AMUSEMENT!!!
Showing posts with label Cal Bears. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Cal Bears. Show all posts
Thursday, November 5, 2015
Wednesday, October 21, 2015
Oh. Hello.
It has been a long damn time since I posted. A month. Not dead, just lazy. I do plan to be back full force once Gopher basketball gets going, I really do. For now, since at least 1 person is asking for a new post, I'll write something.
- Welcome aboard, Eric Curry! Quickly following up the Amir Coffey signing (yay!) the Gophers also picked up forward Eric Curry. He's a combo type forward from Arkansas, and while he's not ranked on Coffey's level he's well regarded in his own right: ranking #106 by 247sports national composite and the #21 ranked power forward. He ended up besties with Coffey and once Amir signed Curry was pretty likely to follow in what hopefully becomes a trend.
He's described as a combo forward, which generally means he's either too fast for PF and too strong for SF or too weak for PF and too slow for SF. Hopefully the former and it sounds good so far. Scouting reports tout his athleticism and he's already got a decent amount of polish posting up which will be a nice change for a Gopher team that hasn't had a true post up artists since, I dunno, Ralph Sampson I guess. Before you jump all over that remember Ralph had some moves. Curry's other highly touted attribute is his "high motor" which means the Sampson comparisons can pretty much end now.
His weaknesses are he needs to get stronger and he needs more of a perimeter game. Well, he's a high school senior right now, and I'm pretty sure the ESPN scouting report just rubber stamps "must get stronger" on early every recruit because that's a pretty common and understandable need. The perimeter game should come around because, get this, he's a 78% free throw shooter. Sign him up!
- The Twins season ended, you may have learned, and I struggle whether or not to say this was a successful season though I lean towards yes. We got to watch some meaningful baseball almost all the way to the final day of the season - that's good! Then again, they cratered and didn't get the Wildcard spot - that's bad! Though, they probably weren't as good as their record anyway - that's bad! But we got to see a glimpse of many of the future hopefully building blocks of future success - that's good! So I'll stick with slightly good. Here's some other Twins stuff:
1. Say good-bye to Trevor Plouffe. I found some sight the other day that gave projected arbitration salaries for players, and Plouffe is guessed at $7.7 million. I like Plouffe and he's a decent player who works hard and seems like a good dude and was part of some very bad teams without complaint, but at that salary, with Miguel Sano slated to be the third baseman for the next billion years, the world's most unmovable contract stuck at 1st, and a slew of younger, cheaper bats that need DH appearances and spot starts there's nowhere for him to play. Whether via trade or simply non-tendering him I just can't see him sticking around, which is unfortunate because he's WonderBaby (who is now 7)'s favorite player, though she calls him Treasure Poof.
2. Do the Twins need an ace? More on the need for an ace later, if I feel like and/or remember, but I don't think this is doable. They've tossed way too much money at Ricky Nolasco, Ervin Santana, and Phil Hughes lately to really go after it, unless they were going to pony up the big bucks and do it right by going after David Price or Jordan Zimmermann or something but I don't see that happening. With Hughes, Santana, Kyle Gibson, and a slew of young arms worth trying out I'm not even sure they need to do anything with the starting staff (but the bullpen? Fire everybody). There are enough decent names out there that if they can get a steal (a real steal, like that 2/$20 million contract the Cubs gave Jason Hammel) then it might be worth it. But please, no 4 year deal for Jeremy Guthrie. Please.
3. Overall the future here seems pretty neat. They need a catcher and a shortstop for sure and those are not very easy to fill so hopefully dudes who are already here can fill those roles, but other than Brian Dozier's second half cratering things seem pretty clear. I hated the Torii Hunter signing when it happened because that money could have been better spent, but hell, maybe there is something to clubhouse chemistry and veteran leadership. I'd be happy to see him back at a reduced rate assuming he's cool being the 4th outfielder at best. Next year should be pretty fun. Looking forward to it.
- Seems like we are heading towards a Royals vs. Mets World Series. I'm good with that. Of the playoff teams you had teams that were too successful (Cardinals), too evil (Yankees), too rich (Dodgers), too big of assholish fans (Toronto), too unlikable (Rangers), too it hurts because it should have been us (Astros), and the Pirates, Cubs, Royals, and Mets, and you have to eliminate the Cubs because the whole Back to the Future thing is already more irritating the constant DFS commercials.
- Wolves should be pretty fun. Rubio-LaVine-Wiggins-Towns-Dieng. Could be a lot worse, right? At least it should be fun. A legit shot at back-to-back Rookie of the Year winners, finding out if LaVine can be like, good, and seeing if Rubio can stay healthy is a good reason to at least occasionally watch. I mean, Rubio running a break with those two wings and Towns trailing? That's awesome.
And how good can Towns be? Rookie of the Year is pretty much a lock, the only question is can he challenge for MVP. I say yes. Did you see him hitting those threes against no defense this offseason? I mean, most guys can't do that. And have you seen his preseason stats? Averaging 10.7 pts, 6.7 rebs, and 1.0 blocks per game, but that's only in 21 minutes per game! If you extrapolate that out to a whole game it comes out to something like 35 pts, 18 rebounds, 9 assists, and 7 blocks per game. You know the last player to put up those kind of numbers? Yep, that's right - Hot Sauce. Towns is that good.
- I know what you're thinking - "this blog sucks now." But I know what else you're thinking, why is there no mention of this year's Gopher hoops team? Well, I'm not ready yet. I'll rip something off at some point, but right now it's like, no. I am not ready to write about Joey King just yet, and I don't really know how to spin the Bakary Konate/Gaston Diedhiou stuff into a positive, nor can I figure out how to look forward to Carlos Morris being a big key to the season. I'll get around to it, I swear. For now, let me write something quick about other NCAAB stuff.
- ACC is going to be garbage, relatively speaking. Only North Carolina looks poised to be good. Duke lost everybody and will now count on Grayson freaking Allen, Virginia I'm pretty sick of already so move on, Louisville lost literally their entire roster, Notre Dame without Jerian Grant is meaningless. Miami and FSU could be semi-interesting but in general I'm expecting the Big 10 to take the challenge thing.
- LSU is one of my big sleepers and you can still get them at 50/60-1 to win the National Championship. Yes, they lost Jordan Mickey and Jarrell Martin, but they have a ton of guard play coming back and two absolute stud recruits in do everything big man Ben Simmons (likely #1 pick in next year's draft) and swingman Antonio Blakeney (who is now linked to the Louisville "scandal"). There are a lot of questions about the front court, though Simmons can maybe do it all, but all those guards back and a monster recruiting class scream contender to me.
- Another team I like a lot is Cal (don't worry, Justin Cobbs is gone). They pick up the #4 and #7 players in the entire country, both front court guys, who join their three best players, all guards. Add in Cuonzo Martin, a really, really good coach, and you'd be a fool to pass them up at 20-1. A FOOL!!
- I might end up doing a Big Ten preview post, and if I do I promise I won't be like every other writer and say something like "based on talent the Badgers shouldn't be this high, but Bo Ryan blah blah blah barf" No! This is the year the Badgers suck ass. They are gutted. They have Nigel Hayes, who I love and is awesome, Bronson Koenig, who is annoying and super hateable and sucks, and that's it. All of their other players suck. They won't be bottom of the basement, but there's zero chance this team makes the NCAA Tournament. None. Zero. None.
- A Big Ten team I do like a ton this year is Purdue, though that seems like a not uncommon thought. And their games are going to suuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuck to watch. Massive rim protection in A.J. Hammons and Isaac Haas (Hammons is elite, Haas is 7-2 so should get there eventually) is joined by 6-9 Caleb Swanigan, one of the top couple center recruits in the country, and Raphael Davis is back who, you surely don't remember this, won B10 defensive player of the year. They also couldn't shoot for shit last year and there's no real reason that should change. I fully expect multiple games where they win without breaking 50 points.
- Oh yeah, speaking of points we have a new shot clock now at 30 seconds. Even better though they got rid of the 5-second closely guarded rule. I'm not sure if that's a positive change as far as the game goes, but it's going to be super fun to go to games this year and hear morons yell "5 seconds!" one billion times because nobody reads anymore. Also, speaking of going to games, Snacks and I were lining up our trip out to Sioux Falls with our sons to go check out the Gophers vs. Oklahoma State game and then right as we were figuring stuff out bam, it turns out my parents' have this dumb christmas party that same day where we are supposed to be blackjack dealers or something. Thanks a lot, mom and dad.
- Perry Ellis, the 37-year old Kansas power forward, is back for another year. He has now surpassed Wade Lookingbill, Jess Settles, and Brian Cardinal for longest tenured player in college basketball history.
- I don't know. I guess that's all for now.
- Oh yeah. Also Rick Pitino 100% knew there were sex parties for recruits and also that happens at every single school. Haven't you seen He Got Game?
- Welcome aboard, Eric Curry! Quickly following up the Amir Coffey signing (yay!) the Gophers also picked up forward Eric Curry. He's a combo type forward from Arkansas, and while he's not ranked on Coffey's level he's well regarded in his own right: ranking #106 by 247sports national composite and the #21 ranked power forward. He ended up besties with Coffey and once Amir signed Curry was pretty likely to follow in what hopefully becomes a trend.
He's described as a combo forward, which generally means he's either too fast for PF and too strong for SF or too weak for PF and too slow for SF. Hopefully the former and it sounds good so far. Scouting reports tout his athleticism and he's already got a decent amount of polish posting up which will be a nice change for a Gopher team that hasn't had a true post up artists since, I dunno, Ralph Sampson I guess. Before you jump all over that remember Ralph had some moves. Curry's other highly touted attribute is his "high motor" which means the Sampson comparisons can pretty much end now.
His weaknesses are he needs to get stronger and he needs more of a perimeter game. Well, he's a high school senior right now, and I'm pretty sure the ESPN scouting report just rubber stamps "must get stronger" on early every recruit because that's a pretty common and understandable need. The perimeter game should come around because, get this, he's a 78% free throw shooter. Sign him up!
- The Twins season ended, you may have learned, and I struggle whether or not to say this was a successful season though I lean towards yes. We got to watch some meaningful baseball almost all the way to the final day of the season - that's good! Then again, they cratered and didn't get the Wildcard spot - that's bad! Though, they probably weren't as good as their record anyway - that's bad! But we got to see a glimpse of many of the future hopefully building blocks of future success - that's good! So I'll stick with slightly good. Here's some other Twins stuff:
1. Say good-bye to Trevor Plouffe. I found some sight the other day that gave projected arbitration salaries for players, and Plouffe is guessed at $7.7 million. I like Plouffe and he's a decent player who works hard and seems like a good dude and was part of some very bad teams without complaint, but at that salary, with Miguel Sano slated to be the third baseman for the next billion years, the world's most unmovable contract stuck at 1st, and a slew of younger, cheaper bats that need DH appearances and spot starts there's nowhere for him to play. Whether via trade or simply non-tendering him I just can't see him sticking around, which is unfortunate because he's WonderBaby (who is now 7)'s favorite player, though she calls him Treasure Poof.
2. Do the Twins need an ace? More on the need for an ace later, if I feel like and/or remember, but I don't think this is doable. They've tossed way too much money at Ricky Nolasco, Ervin Santana, and Phil Hughes lately to really go after it, unless they were going to pony up the big bucks and do it right by going after David Price or Jordan Zimmermann or something but I don't see that happening. With Hughes, Santana, Kyle Gibson, and a slew of young arms worth trying out I'm not even sure they need to do anything with the starting staff (but the bullpen? Fire everybody). There are enough decent names out there that if they can get a steal (a real steal, like that 2/$20 million contract the Cubs gave Jason Hammel) then it might be worth it. But please, no 4 year deal for Jeremy Guthrie. Please.
3. Overall the future here seems pretty neat. They need a catcher and a shortstop for sure and those are not very easy to fill so hopefully dudes who are already here can fill those roles, but other than Brian Dozier's second half cratering things seem pretty clear. I hated the Torii Hunter signing when it happened because that money could have been better spent, but hell, maybe there is something to clubhouse chemistry and veteran leadership. I'd be happy to see him back at a reduced rate assuming he's cool being the 4th outfielder at best. Next year should be pretty fun. Looking forward to it.
- Seems like we are heading towards a Royals vs. Mets World Series. I'm good with that. Of the playoff teams you had teams that were too successful (Cardinals), too evil (Yankees), too rich (Dodgers), too big of assholish fans (Toronto), too unlikable (Rangers), too it hurts because it should have been us (Astros), and the Pirates, Cubs, Royals, and Mets, and you have to eliminate the Cubs because the whole Back to the Future thing is already more irritating the constant DFS commercials.
So really, Royals and Mets gives me probably two of my top three choices (with the Pirates). And yeah sure, the Mets are terribly run organization and the Royals are kind of dickish and have the most clueless manager in the playoffs, but you're never going to get perfect. It should be fun and I won't be annoyed no matter who wins. What's wrong with that? Plus the less R.A. Dickey there is to watch, the better. Though I will really miss watching Kyle Schwarber play outfield.
And I'm determined to do a live blog of at least one World Series game. I think I have almost every year, so I can't just stop now.
And I'm determined to do a live blog of at least one World Series game. I think I have almost every year, so I can't just stop now.
- Wolves should be pretty fun. Rubio-LaVine-Wiggins-Towns-Dieng. Could be a lot worse, right? At least it should be fun. A legit shot at back-to-back Rookie of the Year winners, finding out if LaVine can be like, good, and seeing if Rubio can stay healthy is a good reason to at least occasionally watch. I mean, Rubio running a break with those two wings and Towns trailing? That's awesome.
And how good can Towns be? Rookie of the Year is pretty much a lock, the only question is can he challenge for MVP. I say yes. Did you see him hitting those threes against no defense this offseason? I mean, most guys can't do that. And have you seen his preseason stats? Averaging 10.7 pts, 6.7 rebs, and 1.0 blocks per game, but that's only in 21 minutes per game! If you extrapolate that out to a whole game it comes out to something like 35 pts, 18 rebounds, 9 assists, and 7 blocks per game. You know the last player to put up those kind of numbers? Yep, that's right - Hot Sauce. Towns is that good.
- I know what you're thinking - "this blog sucks now." But I know what else you're thinking, why is there no mention of this year's Gopher hoops team? Well, I'm not ready yet. I'll rip something off at some point, but right now it's like, no. I am not ready to write about Joey King just yet, and I don't really know how to spin the Bakary Konate/Gaston Diedhiou stuff into a positive, nor can I figure out how to look forward to Carlos Morris being a big key to the season. I'll get around to it, I swear. For now, let me write something quick about other NCAAB stuff.
- ACC is going to be garbage, relatively speaking. Only North Carolina looks poised to be good. Duke lost everybody and will now count on Grayson freaking Allen, Virginia I'm pretty sick of already so move on, Louisville lost literally their entire roster, Notre Dame without Jerian Grant is meaningless. Miami and FSU could be semi-interesting but in general I'm expecting the Big 10 to take the challenge thing.
- LSU is one of my big sleepers and you can still get them at 50/60-1 to win the National Championship. Yes, they lost Jordan Mickey and Jarrell Martin, but they have a ton of guard play coming back and two absolute stud recruits in do everything big man Ben Simmons (likely #1 pick in next year's draft) and swingman Antonio Blakeney (who is now linked to the Louisville "scandal"). There are a lot of questions about the front court, though Simmons can maybe do it all, but all those guards back and a monster recruiting class scream contender to me.
- Another team I like a lot is Cal (don't worry, Justin Cobbs is gone). They pick up the #4 and #7 players in the entire country, both front court guys, who join their three best players, all guards. Add in Cuonzo Martin, a really, really good coach, and you'd be a fool to pass them up at 20-1. A FOOL!!
- I might end up doing a Big Ten preview post, and if I do I promise I won't be like every other writer and say something like "based on talent the Badgers shouldn't be this high, but Bo Ryan blah blah blah barf" No! This is the year the Badgers suck ass. They are gutted. They have Nigel Hayes, who I love and is awesome, Bronson Koenig, who is annoying and super hateable and sucks, and that's it. All of their other players suck. They won't be bottom of the basement, but there's zero chance this team makes the NCAA Tournament. None. Zero. None.
- A Big Ten team I do like a ton this year is Purdue, though that seems like a not uncommon thought. And their games are going to suuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuck to watch. Massive rim protection in A.J. Hammons and Isaac Haas (Hammons is elite, Haas is 7-2 so should get there eventually) is joined by 6-9 Caleb Swanigan, one of the top couple center recruits in the country, and Raphael Davis is back who, you surely don't remember this, won B10 defensive player of the year. They also couldn't shoot for shit last year and there's no real reason that should change. I fully expect multiple games where they win without breaking 50 points.
- Oh yeah, speaking of points we have a new shot clock now at 30 seconds. Even better though they got rid of the 5-second closely guarded rule. I'm not sure if that's a positive change as far as the game goes, but it's going to be super fun to go to games this year and hear morons yell "5 seconds!" one billion times because nobody reads anymore. Also, speaking of going to games, Snacks and I were lining up our trip out to Sioux Falls with our sons to go check out the Gophers vs. Oklahoma State game and then right as we were figuring stuff out bam, it turns out my parents' have this dumb christmas party that same day where we are supposed to be blackjack dealers or something. Thanks a lot, mom and dad.
- Perry Ellis, the 37-year old Kansas power forward, is back for another year. He has now surpassed Wade Lookingbill, Jess Settles, and Brian Cardinal for longest tenured player in college basketball history.
- I don't know. I guess that's all for now.
- Oh yeah. Also Rick Pitino 100% knew there were sex parties for recruits and also that happens at every single school. Haven't you seen He Got Game?
Tuesday, July 30, 2013
Gopher 2013-2014 Basketball Schedule Revealed
The Gopher hoop non-conference schedule was revealed Tuesday. And here it is. Rankings are from last year.
11/8 vs. LEHIGH (RPI 107, kenpom 96): A possible top 100 team is always a solid way to kick-off the new year, however the Gophers are a year too late. The players responsible for that awesome Lehigh win over Duke in the NCAA Tournament two years ago have graduated, with C.J. McCollum in the NBA and Gabe Knutson probably like, filing taxes or something since Lehigh is a nerd school. Nerds and wrestling I think. Definitely not basketball.
11/12 vs. MONTANA (RPI 74, kenpom 160): Hey an NCAA Tournament team last year! Let's rock and roll! Actually the Grizzlies have a nice little program going with back-to-back Big Sky Championships and despite losing two of their top three scorers Montana is the most likely non-conference home opponent to end up in the NCAA Tournament this season. Yes, that is correct. I'm serious. No you shut up.
11/16 @ RICHMOND (RPI 91, kenpom 83): The back half of a home-and-home started by Tubby Smith, Richard Pitino honored the commitment so the Gopher will face the Spiders in their only true home game of the non-conference schedule. Richmond brings back three starters from last year's totally mediocre team, and not only might this be a road game but is likely to be the toughest Gopher opponent this year outside of the Maui Invitational. Richmond plays at a pretty slow pace under Chris Mooney so I really like this one as a test to see if the Gophers can impose their will and influence tempo in a tough environment. Could be a pretty good barometer for the entire season, although I believe it's pronounced thermometer.
11/19 vs. COASTAL CAROLINA (RPI 259, kenpom 226): Not really the Gophers' fault they got stuck with these guys as their "first round mainland opponent" in the Maui Invitational, but they weren't good last year and lost their starting back court so I'm guessing they aren't going to be good this year either. On the bright side, you can count on at least one member of the Twin Cities' sports media to bust out an article about what a Chanticleer is (besides tasty, terrific pizza). I predict Reusse, especially if the Gophers lose the previous game at Richmond. He loves that condescending shit, too bad he doesn't do it well.
11/21 vs. WOFFORD (RPI 250, kenpom 256): Wofford has really fallen off since the great Noah Dahlman brought the Terriers to back-to-back NCAA Tournaments (and near wins against Wisconsin and BYU), but at least they are bringing some firepower back from last year's terrible team. Plus they got a guy named Indiana Faithfull which is pretty fricking crazy.
11/25 vs. SYRACUSE (RPI 14, in Maui, kenpom 8): The jewel of the schedule without a doubt, because Syracuse should be in the mix to be a top 10 team again this year. Also, earlier when I wrote about this match-up I mentioned it would be the great back court of the Gophers vs. the great front court of Syracuse, but it turns out I forgot about Michael Gbinije. He's a combo guard who transferred to the Orange after one year at Duke. He was the #29 recruit in the country coming out of high school. He's also 6-7 and should play at the top of the most wing-spanny zone I've ever seen, which could have all five guys at 6-7 or taller at times. As that weird creepy witch said in the Robin Hood with Kevin Costner, "We're doomed."
11/26 vs. ARKANSAS (RPI 95/kenpom 71)(CAL (RPI 54/kenpom 56) in Maui: Cal should be the better match-up here with both teams saw their top player leave school early to enter the NBA Draft (Cal = Allen Crabbe, first round pick; Arkansas = B.J. Young, undrafted - ha ha!) because Cal brings back Justin Cobbs (back in more ways than one) and most of their team from last year while Arkansas also loses Marshawn Powell, the team's second leading scorer, who left the team to go play in Europe or something. This will either be an addition by subtraction year for Arkansas or subtraction by subtraction and probably that second one. Hope for Cal.
11/27 vs. Team 3 in Maui, anywhere from Gonzaga (RPI 6/kenpom 4) to Chaminade (not in D-I): Other options are Baylor (RPI 70/kenpom 26) and Dayton (RPI 114/kenpom 67). Obviously the better the opponent the better the potential results, but seeing as how it's not a random draw for each game you need to win to continue getting quality opponents. Syracuse will be tough, but losing to them and then beating Cal and Baylor or something would still be an outstanding result. Most likely results are a loss in round 1 and then a win over both Arkansas and Dayton. Not bad, but not great. Like a night with your mom.
12/3 vs. FLORIDA STATE (RPI 84/kenpom 124): Andrew Wiggins screwed up everything by choosing Kansas over the Seminoles and now this game is more yawn than not yawn. Last year was one of the worst year's these guys have had under Leonard Hamilton, and with Michael Snaer gone the question is if they'll be worse. Most the rest of the team is back and guys like Okaro White and Terrance Shannon could certainly take a leap, and there's a nice freshman coming in but Snaer was the do-everything team leader type that's tough to replace. Although given how little that mattered last season maybe it turns out chemistry is overrated after all. Don't tell Gardy.
12/7 vs. NEW ORLEANS (RPI 346/kenpom 346): Now things get really, really ugly. You could probably talk yourself into the schedule so far, but these last four games are just nasty, starting with the worst of the worst in the Privateers and yes I had to look that up. They're also in the Southland starting this year after being independent (looked that up) after they used to be D-I but somehow dropped back into D-II or something like that and then got reinstated (remembering this on my own). Should be a fun game though for the first half at least since they're one of the most uptempo teams in the nation. I got news for you though. Ervin Johnson isn't walking through that door.
12/10 vs. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (RPI 62/kenpom 103): I'm sure everyone is thrilled again because for some reason people love the stupid little teams from the Dakotas, but guess what? With Nate Wolters off to the NBA maybe SDSU just becomes a shitty little shithead team again. Remember when the Gophers played them last year without Wolters? Yeah it'll be like that again but probably worse because Jordan Dykstra probably still hasn't cut his hair. I don't know what he's waiting for. There is good news, however. According to their website there are ZERO Minnesota natives on the roster this year. So shut it already.
12/20 vs. NEBRASKA-OMAHA (RPI 285/kenpom 321): I think they've been a D-I team for like 2 years, which is usually a pretty bad sign. They kind of give the appearance of maybe being slightly interesting because 6 of their top 7 scorers from last season should be back. The first college hockey game I ever went to was UMD vs. Nebraska-Omaha. Their nickname is the Mavericks and they abbreviate their team NEOM. The college World Series is still in Omaha. I once had alligator in Omaha (not making that up...might have been Lincoln). I'm just writing random facts now. I once spent a night getting drunk in a hotel in Nebraska by myself. Here is what I wrote that night. Gripping.
12/28 vs. TEXAS A&M CORPUS CHRISTI (RPI 323/kenpom 309): Remember when these guys made the NCAA Tournament somehow and threw a little teeny tiny scare into Wisconsin before losing? Man that would have been awesome if they one, am I right? Since then they've had as many seasons with single-digit wins as double-digit, and I don't want to throw too many fancy stats at you or anything but not even winning 10 games in a season is a pretty good indicator of sucking and TAMUCC has back-to-back years with 6 total wins. I was going to try to find something good to say but I need to get a drink so let's just wrap this up.
The key to a good schedule is lots of games against teams in the 50-150 range and avoiding playing teams that are sub 200 and especially sub-300. The Gophers likely will have six or seven games against 200+ teams and might have three against teams in the top 100. A strong league can smooth that out but you have to, you know, win the games. It was always going to be an interesting season, but as Lewis Carroll once wrote, it's getting "interestinger and interestinger."
11/8 vs. LEHIGH (RPI 107, kenpom 96): A possible top 100 team is always a solid way to kick-off the new year, however the Gophers are a year too late. The players responsible for that awesome Lehigh win over Duke in the NCAA Tournament two years ago have graduated, with C.J. McCollum in the NBA and Gabe Knutson probably like, filing taxes or something since Lehigh is a nerd school. Nerds and wrestling I think. Definitely not basketball.
11/12 vs. MONTANA (RPI 74, kenpom 160): Hey an NCAA Tournament team last year! Let's rock and roll! Actually the Grizzlies have a nice little program going with back-to-back Big Sky Championships and despite losing two of their top three scorers Montana is the most likely non-conference home opponent to end up in the NCAA Tournament this season. Yes, that is correct. I'm serious. No you shut up.
11/16 @ RICHMOND (RPI 91, kenpom 83): The back half of a home-and-home started by Tubby Smith, Richard Pitino honored the commitment so the Gopher will face the Spiders in their only true home game of the non-conference schedule. Richmond brings back three starters from last year's totally mediocre team, and not only might this be a road game but is likely to be the toughest Gopher opponent this year outside of the Maui Invitational. Richmond plays at a pretty slow pace under Chris Mooney so I really like this one as a test to see if the Gophers can impose their will and influence tempo in a tough environment. Could be a pretty good barometer for the entire season, although I believe it's pronounced thermometer.
11/19 vs. COASTAL CAROLINA (RPI 259, kenpom 226): Not really the Gophers' fault they got stuck with these guys as their "first round mainland opponent" in the Maui Invitational, but they weren't good last year and lost their starting back court so I'm guessing they aren't going to be good this year either. On the bright side, you can count on at least one member of the Twin Cities' sports media to bust out an article about what a Chanticleer is (besides tasty, terrific pizza). I predict Reusse, especially if the Gophers lose the previous game at Richmond. He loves that condescending shit, too bad he doesn't do it well.
11/21 vs. WOFFORD (RPI 250, kenpom 256): Wofford has really fallen off since the great Noah Dahlman brought the Terriers to back-to-back NCAA Tournaments (and near wins against Wisconsin and BYU), but at least they are bringing some firepower back from last year's terrible team. Plus they got a guy named Indiana Faithfull which is pretty fricking crazy.
11/25 vs. SYRACUSE (RPI 14, in Maui, kenpom 8): The jewel of the schedule without a doubt, because Syracuse should be in the mix to be a top 10 team again this year. Also, earlier when I wrote about this match-up I mentioned it would be the great back court of the Gophers vs. the great front court of Syracuse, but it turns out I forgot about Michael Gbinije. He's a combo guard who transferred to the Orange after one year at Duke. He was the #29 recruit in the country coming out of high school. He's also 6-7 and should play at the top of the most wing-spanny zone I've ever seen, which could have all five guys at 6-7 or taller at times. As that weird creepy witch said in the Robin Hood with Kevin Costner, "We're doomed."
11/26 vs. ARKANSAS (RPI 95/kenpom 71)(CAL (RPI 54/kenpom 56) in Maui: Cal should be the better match-up here with both teams saw their top player leave school early to enter the NBA Draft (Cal = Allen Crabbe, first round pick; Arkansas = B.J. Young, undrafted - ha ha!) because Cal brings back Justin Cobbs (back in more ways than one) and most of their team from last year while Arkansas also loses Marshawn Powell, the team's second leading scorer, who left the team to go play in Europe or something. This will either be an addition by subtraction year for Arkansas or subtraction by subtraction and probably that second one. Hope for Cal.
11/27 vs. Team 3 in Maui, anywhere from Gonzaga (RPI 6/kenpom 4) to Chaminade (not in D-I): Other options are Baylor (RPI 70/kenpom 26) and Dayton (RPI 114/kenpom 67). Obviously the better the opponent the better the potential results, but seeing as how it's not a random draw for each game you need to win to continue getting quality opponents. Syracuse will be tough, but losing to them and then beating Cal and Baylor or something would still be an outstanding result. Most likely results are a loss in round 1 and then a win over both Arkansas and Dayton. Not bad, but not great. Like a night with your mom.
12/3 vs. FLORIDA STATE (RPI 84/kenpom 124): Andrew Wiggins screwed up everything by choosing Kansas over the Seminoles and now this game is more yawn than not yawn. Last year was one of the worst year's these guys have had under Leonard Hamilton, and with Michael Snaer gone the question is if they'll be worse. Most the rest of the team is back and guys like Okaro White and Terrance Shannon could certainly take a leap, and there's a nice freshman coming in but Snaer was the do-everything team leader type that's tough to replace. Although given how little that mattered last season maybe it turns out chemistry is overrated after all. Don't tell Gardy.
12/7 vs. NEW ORLEANS (RPI 346/kenpom 346): Now things get really, really ugly. You could probably talk yourself into the schedule so far, but these last four games are just nasty, starting with the worst of the worst in the Privateers and yes I had to look that up. They're also in the Southland starting this year after being independent (looked that up) after they used to be D-I but somehow dropped back into D-II or something like that and then got reinstated (remembering this on my own). Should be a fun game though for the first half at least since they're one of the most uptempo teams in the nation. I got news for you though. Ervin Johnson isn't walking through that door.
12/10 vs. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (RPI 62/kenpom 103): I'm sure everyone is thrilled again because for some reason people love the stupid little teams from the Dakotas, but guess what? With Nate Wolters off to the NBA maybe SDSU just becomes a shitty little shithead team again. Remember when the Gophers played them last year without Wolters? Yeah it'll be like that again but probably worse because Jordan Dykstra probably still hasn't cut his hair. I don't know what he's waiting for. There is good news, however. According to their website there are ZERO Minnesota natives on the roster this year. So shut it already.
12/20 vs. NEBRASKA-OMAHA (RPI 285/kenpom 321): I think they've been a D-I team for like 2 years, which is usually a pretty bad sign. They kind of give the appearance of maybe being slightly interesting because 6 of their top 7 scorers from last season should be back. The first college hockey game I ever went to was UMD vs. Nebraska-Omaha. Their nickname is the Mavericks and they abbreviate their team NEOM. The college World Series is still in Omaha. I once had alligator in Omaha (not making that up...might have been Lincoln). I'm just writing random facts now. I once spent a night getting drunk in a hotel in Nebraska by myself. Here is what I wrote that night. Gripping.
12/28 vs. TEXAS A&M CORPUS CHRISTI (RPI 323/kenpom 309): Remember when these guys made the NCAA Tournament somehow and threw a little teeny tiny scare into Wisconsin before losing? Man that would have been awesome if they one, am I right? Since then they've had as many seasons with single-digit wins as double-digit, and I don't want to throw too many fancy stats at you or anything but not even winning 10 games in a season is a pretty good indicator of sucking and TAMUCC has back-to-back years with 6 total wins. I was going to try to find something good to say but I need to get a drink so let's just wrap this up.
The key to a good schedule is lots of games against teams in the 50-150 range and avoiding playing teams that are sub 200 and especially sub-300. The Gophers likely will have six or seven games against 200+ teams and might have three against teams in the top 100. A strong league can smooth that out but you have to, you know, win the games. It was always going to be an interesting season, but as Lewis Carroll once wrote, it's getting "interestinger and interestinger."
Tuesday, March 12, 2013
Even More Tournament Information
Congrats go out to Long Island, South Dakota State, and Valpo for grabbing their league's autobids last night. Absolutely nothing else of significance happened. I, for one, can't wait to hear way too many stories about Nate Wolters as we wait for the real tournament to get going. Here's what's kicking off Wednesday.
PAC-12 CONFERENCE
Welcome back, Pac-12. After several years of crappy play and getting just 1-2 teams in the tournament, the Pac will likely have five teams receive bids this year. The teams are still mostly terrible, with the exception of UCLA who is talented but mind-boggling, and I am going to definitely take the UNDER on Pac-12 wins once the brackets are revealed and the lines come out, but it's at least a step back towards respectability.
FAVORITE: UCLA. Despite a rough start to the season that included an OT win versus UC-Irvine and a loss to Cal Poly the Bruins figured it out and won seven of their final nine games to take the conference regular season title. Good thing too, because they're easily the most talented team. Shabazz Muhammad is legitimately good enough to pull a Carmelo and take UCLA to the Final Four. The real problem is that Larry Drew is erratic enough to lead them to a first round loss.
SLEEPER: Washington. Tough to find a sleeper in a league this tightly bunched, but I'll go with Washington. Lorenzo Romar seems to get the Huskies to play well in March, and you can't go wrong rooting for circus ball.
W's PICK: Cal. They're annoying because they have Justin Cobbs, but they're also an NCAA Tournament team and one of few from the Pac-12 who I think might be able to make the Sweet 16 because of him. Cobbs and Allen Crabbe give the Bears two big-time scorers and assist guys and guards are gold when it comes to March basketball. They're ramping up as well, having won seven of their last eight heading to the tournament including wins over all four of the other NCAA bound Pac teams.
SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE
And as we speak about moving towards respectability we must also look at the other side of Two-Face and look at moving away from respectability and that's what's happened to the SEC. Outside of Florida these teams are awful. Missouri is the only other team who is solidly in the tournament last year and they've been horrendous and lost to a 15 seed last year and will probably be an early out again. Kentucky is down this year despite being talented because they aren't talented enough to overcome Calipari's inability to coach during a game and other than a rare decent year from Ole Miss every other program is in a major downward arc, with Mississippi State quite possibly the worst major conference team in history. I'm not kidding. They lost to Vanderbilt by 41. At home. Dontae Jones is rolling over in his grave.
FAVORITE: Florida. The Gators might be the heaviest favorite in any conference and that includes the smaller ones (maybe Davidson). Currently the #1 team on kenpom with a top 5 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and enough depth and balance to survive a rough night from any of their players. That being said, it's a bit concerning that Florida is 0-5 in games with a final margin in the single digits this year, so if "not knowing how to win the close ones" is a real thing they could be in trouble. Then again, they have 24 wins this year and every single one was by at least 11 points so maybe it doesn't really matter.
SLEEPER: Arkansas. The Razorbacks should have been better than 10-8 in a down SEC, and they showed how good they can be when they basically ran Florida out of the gym in Fayetteville. They struggled this year with "can't win away from home"-itis, but at home they beat not only Florida but also Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee, and Oklahoma - basically as the home team they were probably the second best team in the SEC. Unfortunately for them, the SEC Tournament isn't played in Arkansas so they're probably in trouble.
W's PICK: Ole Miss. The Rebels were looking good earlier this year at 17-2 and 6-0 in SEC play, but have limped down the stretch with a 5-6 finish that included ugly losses to South Carolina and Mississippi State that, along with a horrid non-conference schedule lacking any big wins, have them in rough shape to make the tournament. They benefit because Florida will gain very little with a win out and Billy Donovan knows it, where the Rebels need this more an anyone other than Tennessee.
SOUTHWESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE
College basketball is crazy year after year, but if there's one thing you can always count on it's the SWAC being terrible. In the last 10 years they've ranked as the worst conference eight times (kenpom) and second to last the other two. Looking at their schools I can't remember a single one of them being remotely relevant in the NCAA Tournament - ever. This year Grambling went 0-27 and ranked dead last in both offensive and defensive efficiency, which I'm pretty sure means they're the worst team of all-time. Using kenpom's metrics, he would predict that Penn State would beat Grambling 82-48, the Gophers would win 92-44, and Florida (#1 team) would win 96-39. Hell, the second worst team in the country (New Orleans) would have a projected victory of 72-57. This is a stunningly bad team. It's almost admirable.
FAVORITE: Southern. They finished in second place behind Texas Southern, but Texas Southern is ineligible for the postseason because of NCAA violations. Additionally the team who tied with Southern for second, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, is ineligible for the post-season due to low APR scores as is Mississippi Valley State. So basically these schools all suck at basketball and at academics and cheating. Are we sure these are even colleges?
SLEEPER: Jackson State. Ok I lied when I said Florida or Davidson might be the heaviest favorite because it's clearly Southern. With the only other two teams on their level banned from tournament play there really is no dark horse because Southern should walk. They're ranked 163rd at kenpom and the next best eligible team is #312. I picked Jackson as my sleeper simply because they're the only other team who finished at .500 or better who will be playing in this thing.
W's PICK: Southern. It doesn't matter because they're going to get blown out by whomever they play (if they get through the First Four) but they should at least have fun destroying teams in getting there.
SOUTHLAND CONFERENCE
Similar to the SWAC the Southland is pretty terrible and is every year, but the difference is the Southland occasionally develops a respectable team (and will more often since Oral Roberts moved there this year for financial/geographic reasons). This is one of those years with Stephen F. Austin actually looking like a pretty decent squad (they beat Oklahoma and Long Beach). They will try to continue the Southland's first round tradition of kind of scaring teams but then fading away in the second half, although I still thank baby santa jesus for this moment, which I believe to be the most linked video on this blog:
FAVORITE: Stephen F. Austin. The Lumberjacks are actually an outstanding defensive team - as in the 6th best team in the country in defensive efficiency. And they're really well rounded on that side of the ball as well - the defend the two and the three well, don't allow offensive rebounds or commit many fouls and they cause a bunch of turnovers. Unfortunately their offense is brutal.
SLEEPER: Northwestern State. Not only are the Demons awesome because of what they did to Iowa, but they're also awesome because they not only score the most points of any team per game in the NCAA but they also play the fastest pace of any team in the NCAA. You know how fun it would be to watch them play somebody like North Carolina? God that would be fun.
W's PICK: Northwestern State. SFA would actually have a much better chance of scoring an upset with their super slow pace and tough defense, but seriously if I wanted to watch that kind of basketball I'd just move to Wisconsin. The Demons would at least be fun - mostly for the other team and their fans - but what can I say I'm a sucker for circus ball and NW State fits the bill. I'm kind of excited for them already, so they better not let me down or there'll be hell to pay. Hell.
CONFERENCE USA
It's Memphis and everybody else. Again. Memphis, who you might remember the Gophers actually beat, rolled through conference play on the way to a 16-0 record and have locked up their at-large bid. What this means, since this is Memphis and Josh Pastner, is that they'll likely lose focus and interest in the conference tournament and somebody else will have a chance to win it. The only question is if anybody is actually good enough to do so, even with the Tigers chasing butterflies or whatever.
FAVORITE: Memphis. When it comes to talent the Tigers are on a completely different level than everybody else. The only other team who can play there way to a possible at-large is Southern Miss and they finished four games behind Memphis in the standings and the lost to the Tigers by 13 and 16 in their two meetings. Maybe Memphis is the biggest favorite of anybody in any conference tournament. This stuff is hard.
SLEEPER: Houston. If I had to pick a non-Memphis or Southern Miss team to win this I'd go with UTEP, but Houston is a better "sleeper" since they're a middle of the pack squad who comes in a bit hot after winning their final three regular season games. Normally you'd say that's not a big deal since it's only three games, but for a team this young (top four scorers are all freshmen or sophomores) with some real talent (at least one Rivals Top 150 recruit has signed with the Cougars each of the last two years) this could be a sign of them coming together and figuring it out. Probably not, but maybe.
W's PICK: Memphis. Honestly there are only a couple teams Memphis will even to try to beat in this tournament, and none of them are very good and this thing is so wide open they might all lose early. Good thing Memphis is finally leaving that shitty conference because it's just getting worse and worse. Probably time to shut 'er down.
PAC-12 CONFERENCE
Welcome back, Pac-12. After several years of crappy play and getting just 1-2 teams in the tournament, the Pac will likely have five teams receive bids this year. The teams are still mostly terrible, with the exception of UCLA who is talented but mind-boggling, and I am going to definitely take the UNDER on Pac-12 wins once the brackets are revealed and the lines come out, but it's at least a step back towards respectability.
FAVORITE: UCLA. Despite a rough start to the season that included an OT win versus UC-Irvine and a loss to Cal Poly the Bruins figured it out and won seven of their final nine games to take the conference regular season title. Good thing too, because they're easily the most talented team. Shabazz Muhammad is legitimately good enough to pull a Carmelo and take UCLA to the Final Four. The real problem is that Larry Drew is erratic enough to lead them to a first round loss.
SLEEPER: Washington. Tough to find a sleeper in a league this tightly bunched, but I'll go with Washington. Lorenzo Romar seems to get the Huskies to play well in March, and you can't go wrong rooting for circus ball.
W's PICK: Cal. They're annoying because they have Justin Cobbs, but they're also an NCAA Tournament team and one of few from the Pac-12 who I think might be able to make the Sweet 16 because of him. Cobbs and Allen Crabbe give the Bears two big-time scorers and assist guys and guards are gold when it comes to March basketball. They're ramping up as well, having won seven of their last eight heading to the tournament including wins over all four of the other NCAA bound Pac teams.
SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE
And as we speak about moving towards respectability we must also look at the other side of Two-Face and look at moving away from respectability and that's what's happened to the SEC. Outside of Florida these teams are awful. Missouri is the only other team who is solidly in the tournament last year and they've been horrendous and lost to a 15 seed last year and will probably be an early out again. Kentucky is down this year despite being talented because they aren't talented enough to overcome Calipari's inability to coach during a game and other than a rare decent year from Ole Miss every other program is in a major downward arc, with Mississippi State quite possibly the worst major conference team in history. I'm not kidding. They lost to Vanderbilt by 41. At home. Dontae Jones is rolling over in his grave.
FAVORITE: Florida. The Gators might be the heaviest favorite in any conference and that includes the smaller ones (maybe Davidson). Currently the #1 team on kenpom with a top 5 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and enough depth and balance to survive a rough night from any of their players. That being said, it's a bit concerning that Florida is 0-5 in games with a final margin in the single digits this year, so if "not knowing how to win the close ones" is a real thing they could be in trouble. Then again, they have 24 wins this year and every single one was by at least 11 points so maybe it doesn't really matter.
SLEEPER: Arkansas. The Razorbacks should have been better than 10-8 in a down SEC, and they showed how good they can be when they basically ran Florida out of the gym in Fayetteville. They struggled this year with "can't win away from home"-itis, but at home they beat not only Florida but also Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee, and Oklahoma - basically as the home team they were probably the second best team in the SEC. Unfortunately for them, the SEC Tournament isn't played in Arkansas so they're probably in trouble.
W's PICK: Ole Miss. The Rebels were looking good earlier this year at 17-2 and 6-0 in SEC play, but have limped down the stretch with a 5-6 finish that included ugly losses to South Carolina and Mississippi State that, along with a horrid non-conference schedule lacking any big wins, have them in rough shape to make the tournament. They benefit because Florida will gain very little with a win out and Billy Donovan knows it, where the Rebels need this more an anyone other than Tennessee.
SOUTHWESTERN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE
College basketball is crazy year after year, but if there's one thing you can always count on it's the SWAC being terrible. In the last 10 years they've ranked as the worst conference eight times (kenpom) and second to last the other two. Looking at their schools I can't remember a single one of them being remotely relevant in the NCAA Tournament - ever. This year Grambling went 0-27 and ranked dead last in both offensive and defensive efficiency, which I'm pretty sure means they're the worst team of all-time. Using kenpom's metrics, he would predict that Penn State would beat Grambling 82-48, the Gophers would win 92-44, and Florida (#1 team) would win 96-39. Hell, the second worst team in the country (New Orleans) would have a projected victory of 72-57. This is a stunningly bad team. It's almost admirable.
FAVORITE: Southern. They finished in second place behind Texas Southern, but Texas Southern is ineligible for the postseason because of NCAA violations. Additionally the team who tied with Southern for second, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, is ineligible for the post-season due to low APR scores as is Mississippi Valley State. So basically these schools all suck at basketball and at academics and cheating. Are we sure these are even colleges?
SLEEPER: Jackson State. Ok I lied when I said Florida or Davidson might be the heaviest favorite because it's clearly Southern. With the only other two teams on their level banned from tournament play there really is no dark horse because Southern should walk. They're ranked 163rd at kenpom and the next best eligible team is #312. I picked Jackson as my sleeper simply because they're the only other team who finished at .500 or better who will be playing in this thing.
W's PICK: Southern. It doesn't matter because they're going to get blown out by whomever they play (if they get through the First Four) but they should at least have fun destroying teams in getting there.
SOUTHLAND CONFERENCE
Similar to the SWAC the Southland is pretty terrible and is every year, but the difference is the Southland occasionally develops a respectable team (and will more often since Oral Roberts moved there this year for financial/geographic reasons). This is one of those years with Stephen F. Austin actually looking like a pretty decent squad (they beat Oklahoma and Long Beach). They will try to continue the Southland's first round tradition of kind of scaring teams but then fading away in the second half, although I still thank baby santa jesus for this moment, which I believe to be the most linked video on this blog:
FAVORITE: Stephen F. Austin. The Lumberjacks are actually an outstanding defensive team - as in the 6th best team in the country in defensive efficiency. And they're really well rounded on that side of the ball as well - the defend the two and the three well, don't allow offensive rebounds or commit many fouls and they cause a bunch of turnovers. Unfortunately their offense is brutal.
SLEEPER: Northwestern State. Not only are the Demons awesome because of what they did to Iowa, but they're also awesome because they not only score the most points of any team per game in the NCAA but they also play the fastest pace of any team in the NCAA. You know how fun it would be to watch them play somebody like North Carolina? God that would be fun.
W's PICK: Northwestern State. SFA would actually have a much better chance of scoring an upset with their super slow pace and tough defense, but seriously if I wanted to watch that kind of basketball I'd just move to Wisconsin. The Demons would at least be fun - mostly for the other team and their fans - but what can I say I'm a sucker for circus ball and NW State fits the bill. I'm kind of excited for them already, so they better not let me down or there'll be hell to pay. Hell.
CONFERENCE USA
It's Memphis and everybody else. Again. Memphis, who you might remember the Gophers actually beat, rolled through conference play on the way to a 16-0 record and have locked up their at-large bid. What this means, since this is Memphis and Josh Pastner, is that they'll likely lose focus and interest in the conference tournament and somebody else will have a chance to win it. The only question is if anybody is actually good enough to do so, even with the Tigers chasing butterflies or whatever.
FAVORITE: Memphis. When it comes to talent the Tigers are on a completely different level than everybody else. The only other team who can play there way to a possible at-large is Southern Miss and they finished four games behind Memphis in the standings and the lost to the Tigers by 13 and 16 in their two meetings. Maybe Memphis is the biggest favorite of anybody in any conference tournament. This stuff is hard.
SLEEPER: Houston. If I had to pick a non-Memphis or Southern Miss team to win this I'd go with UTEP, but Houston is a better "sleeper" since they're a middle of the pack squad who comes in a bit hot after winning their final three regular season games. Normally you'd say that's not a big deal since it's only three games, but for a team this young (top four scorers are all freshmen or sophomores) with some real talent (at least one Rivals Top 150 recruit has signed with the Cougars each of the last two years) this could be a sign of them coming together and figuring it out. Probably not, but maybe.
W's PICK: Memphis. Honestly there are only a couple teams Memphis will even to try to beat in this tournament, and none of them are very good and this thing is so wide open they might all lose early. Good thing Memphis is finally leaving that shitty conference because it's just getting worse and worse. Probably time to shut 'er down.
Tuesday, October 16, 2012
DWG's NCAA Basketball Preview: Teams #52-47
I know plenty of people are busy tonight with the debate and the Tigers/Yankees game, but I can only watch the debates 30 seconds at a time without falling asleep or dying of self-inflicted gangrene and it seems silly to write about the Tigers/Yankees game because I don't really feel like writing "Verlander gets another stupid Yankee out easily" twenty-seven times. Thus insteadly here are some NCAA Basketball previews. I hope you enjoy them.
I'm just kidding. I really don't give a crap. I know you're reading this at work and have nothing better to do with your time anyway.
52. Illinois State Redbirds. Creighton, Wichita State, and Northern Iowa seem to get most of the Missouri Valley headlines and hype, but this could end up being Illinois State's big year. Last year's team took Creighton down to the wire in the MVC Championship before losing in overtime, then beat Ole Miss in the NIT before falling to eventual champ Stanford (also in OT). That same team returns pretty much intact (including stud Jackie Carmichael who, according to anything you read on ISU on the internet "wowed" people at the LeBron Skills Academy). They do lose their starting point guard from last season who transferred to SMU to tag along with the Redbirds' coach last year, and nobody's sure if they have a player who can fill that role capably, but who cares? Their nickname is the Redbirds for christ's sake, and if the baseball playoffs have taught us anything (other than the Yankees suck) it's that Redbirds never die.
51. Marshall Thundering Herd. Marshall hasn't been to the NCAA Tournament since 1987 and has never won a game, but they've been awfully close lately which seems interesting or something I guess. Last year they were in the hunt until a killer loss to a terrible ECU team knocked them out of the at-large running and then they were crushed in the C-USA Tournament Championship game by Memphis. Two years prior they came out of the blocks at 15-2 before sucking the rest of the year. Will this be the year they finally break through? No.
50. Belmont Bruins. Belmont takes a big step up in the world this year, shifting from the Atlantic Sun to the Ohio Valley which means capturing an at-large bid goes from impossible to simply unlikely. And once again, this will be the same kind of hyper-efficient team that takes care of the basketball and shoots well, but likely lacks the athleticism to truly compete with the big-time programs and really good teams. And once again they'll probably end up in the NCAA Tournament matched up against somebody better, and everyone (myself included) will talk themselves into how Belmont could be a sweet 16 sleeper and end up picking them to beat a #4 seed in round one only to watch in horror as they get blown out by 20 and a have to put a big red X on my bracket before the first games of day 1 are out. Looking forward to it already.
49. Arkansas Razorbacks. What's the best way to rebound from John Pelphrey trying to run the program straight into the ground? Hire the sweet Mike Anderson, Nolan Richardson's protege, and let the Hogs run wild. It didn't quite kick in for year 1, but based on his track record at UAB and Missouri I'd imagine we'll see Arkansas back in the tournament in a year or two. Guard play is the key to running Anderson's system and Arkansas is plenty loaded here. B.J. Young, who flirted a bit with the Gophers (while, they more threw themselves at him and he didn't say no right away - like your sister at a kegger) had a monster freshman year and probably could have gone pro but stayed on for another year, and he's got plenty of other perimeter help. You know fun Missouri was to watch the last several years? Yeah, that's coming to Fayetteville. I wish I could bet on things like, Arkansas will be ranked in the top 10 at some point in the next 3 years. I'd totally win a bunch of money. Just like how Snacks will owe me fifty bucks when the Royals win the AL Central sometime by 2014 (a bet we made 2 years ago). Yeah. It's coming. I've already spent that money investing in pumpkins. They've been going up the month of October. I figure if I hold those babies until January and then cash out. BAM! BOATLOADS!
48. Colorado State Rams. I don't think anyone would dispute that losing Tim Miles (to Nebraska) is a blow considering how he builds programs, but if you're going to lose a guy like that (and it was inevitable) you could do a whole lot worse than hiring Larry Eustachy. I know it's easy to think about the scandal where he was busted partying with young college chicks but let's be honest who wouldn't want to do that, but don't forget the guy is a damn good coach. This is the same guy who just took a garbage program in Southern Miss to the NCAA Tournament last year and had lots of success at Iowa State, and he's also the guy who started Utah State's run of brilliance back in 1998 (hadn't been to the tournament in 10 years). And now he inherits a team that made the tournament last season and he gets most of the team back, plus Colton Iverson. Eustachy and Iverson! Count me in. That's like a modern day Balki and Cousin Larry.
47. Cal Bears. These guys could end up with one of the best backcourts in the Pac-12 and, sad and horrifying as it is, part of the reason is Justin Cobbs. Freed from the restraints of Tubby's molasses style offense Cobbs ended up averaging 12.6 points (16th in the conference) and 5.0 assists (2nd) per game last season, and he's probably not even the teams best guard - that would be Allen Crabbe. They have to figure out how to replace two big losses including their lead point guard and their best post player, but having two good guards and playing in the shitbox Pac-12 pretty much assures Cal will at least be in the running for an NCAA bid. Mother-effing Cobbs.
Previous:
Teams #68-60
Teams #59-53
I'm just kidding. I really don't give a crap. I know you're reading this at work and have nothing better to do with your time anyway.
Previous:
Teams #68-60
Teams #59-53
Monday, March 5, 2012
Week in Review - 3/5/2012
So MLB in their infinite wisdom has decided to add a second wild card team beginning this season whereby the first round of the playoffs will consist on one game in each league between the two wild card teams, in an attempt to cash in on the excitement the Game 163s have generated the last few years in a move that was almost certainly driven by the almighty dollar.
That being said, I like it. Not only does it give more teams a chance to be relevant late into the season (which, face it, as a Twins fan is a big selling point) but it finally gives a meaningful advantage to the teams that win their division over the Wildcard winner. Before the only difference was home field advantage, now winning a wild card means you play one game for your playoff life while the division winners know they have a full series coming up. I'm 100% on board, thanks for asking.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Chip Armelin. I know the clearest sign of a terrible college season for a team is to start evaluating players in terms of their futures before the year is even over, but here we are, and Armelin played a great game against Nebraska. It was nice to see a player actually attempt to score, not to mention that scoring seemed to be the #1 thing on his mind - a true rarity on the Gopher teams of the Tubby Smith era. He even took a heat check after he made those three treys, and as a huge fan of the heat check it was nice to see because nobody else ever does it on this team. I'm not exactly sure how to project him going forward (assuming he stays with Minnesota) but with him, Dre Hollins, and Joe Coleman the team at least has three guard types who are aggressive with the ball and aren't afraid to attack the rim and attempt to score. For now, at least, until Tubby beats them into submission and they start being afraid to drive.
2. Colonial Conference. Well, the Colonial teams did what they were supposed to do. The CAA had two teams in the mix for an at-large bid in VCU and Drexel, and both made it through to the CAA Final this week. Obviously whichever team wins gets the auto-bid and the other will have to wait for Sunday and hope they get called, but they've done what the both needed to at this point. Both are so on the bubble that it's really tough to say if they'd get in with a loss and might need to catch a few breaks but with Murray State and Creighton getting autobids that's two at-larges that are safe. I'm hoping the committee does the right thing and let's them both in over crappy big 6 teams like Arizona, Seton Hall, or Miami, but that big conference bias has reared it's head in the past, so I'm skeptical at best. [NOTE: VCU ended up winning, and even though it was a close game that pretty much went down to the wire I came away less impressed with Drexel than I was the last time I watched them. I still think they're a good, tough mid-major but I no longer think it'll be a travesty if they don't get a bid. They'll probably just beat the Gophers in NIT round 1.]
3. Indiana Hoosiers. When Indiana started out the year hot I wasn't buying it. Then they beat Kentucky and Ohio State and I was like ok maybe. Then they lost three straight including a home loss to the Gophers and on the road at Nebraska and I was like ha ha I knew it. Then they just kind of did what decent big ten teams always do (win at home, lose on the road, beat who you should, don't get upset, blah blah) and it was boring, but this week might have won me over. The beat both Michigan State and Purdue handily and as everyone who was talking about anything about basketball last week made sure to let you know that's three top-five teams they've now beaten this year. What really won me over was in watching good size chunks of both of those games they're more athletic than I thought. They still won't be confused for Kentucky, but guys like Sheehey and Oladipo are really good athletes, and Hulls and Watford move around better than I remembered. I still don't think they can get any further than the Sweet 16, but not long ago I was penciling them in as being upset in round 1, so they've made me rethink things a bit.
4. Cincinnati Bearcats. Well that's certainly how you make a run when you're stuck on the bubble come late February. The Bearcats beat Marquette and Villanova this week (at Nova) to finish the regular season with five wins in the last six including wins over three teams in the top 56 RPI and the only loss to South Florida on the road (RPI 45). You still can't quite guarantee they're in because that horrendous strength of schedule (#321 non-conference SOS with 9 games against sub-200 RPI teams) and the ugly loss against Presbyterian (RPI 246) which has a good chance to be the worst loss by any tournament team this year, but they're now up to 5-4 against the RPI Top 50 and 7-5 road/neutral and they simply just belong. Their RPI is held back by that SOS and is shaky at 66 right now, but a few weeks ago they were in the mid-80s, so this is a solid run that's kind of inspiring in the same way the Gophers falling from solidly in to no shot in one short month is inspiring but the opposite.
5. North Carolina Tar Heels. Ruh roh. I think everybody has known all year the Heels were behind only Kentucky in pure talent, but for whatever reason seemed to not quite be able to put it together and kind of drifted along, as double digit losses to UNLV and Florida State attest to. I mean sure, they won lots of games and all, but they were definitely not living up to their talent level. And then Duke won in Chapel Hill. And something snapped. The Heels have won their last seven, including absolutely crushing Duke's soul in Durham and easy road wins against three possible tournament teams in Virginia (lock), Miami (likely), NC State (very unlikely). I was hoping they wouldn't figure it out so I could trust them to lose early, but looks like no such luck, and Kendall Marshall was just snubbed for ACC first team so, well, yeah, there's that. And keep in mind that Roy Williams has no interest in conference tournaments so if/when UNC flames out early in the ACC tourney don't let that affect your NCAA picks. Or let it. More sweet sweet delicious sexy money for me sex.
WHO SUCKED
1. St. Louis Cardinals. Lemme get this straight. First, you lose your best player, maybe the best player of his generation and the face of your franchise because you can't afford to pay him. Then you turn around and give your catcher $15mm per year? So let's see. Pujols got 10 years, $240 million from the Angels for an average salary of $24 million each season. From what I can find, the biggest offer the Cardinals put on the table was 9 years, $205 million - or $22.78 million per. You're telling me you couldn't take a few extra million you offered Molina and use it to re-sign Pujols and then offer Molina $13 per instead of $15? You're telling me he wouldn't take that? Seems like knee jerk reaction to make sure you don't lose your second most beloved player after botching it on the first. Then again, my favorite team gave their catcher 800 bajillion dollars to sit on the bench, so who am I to talk.
2. Wichita State. Losing in the semis of a middle tier conference tournament to a non-descript Illinois State team is never a good thing, but in this case it doesn't really bother me nor my love for the Shockers (the team, not the act). First of all and most importantly they're already guaranteed an at-large bid thanks to a very good resume, so this loss doesn't knock them out. Some people will say they'll be more rested but I don't really care about that because a couple of days doesn't make much difference to a 20-year old college athlete, but what I really like is this will knock their seed down a peg. If they're a 5 or 6 instead of a 3 or 4 fewer people will pick them to make the sweet 16 and even fewer will pick them to make the Elite 8 so when I do and they do I will be the winner and the money will be mine all mine oh sweet money yes I want the money oh yes.
3. The Pac-12. I'm starting to think they should just go ahead and not invite anyone from the Pac-10, including the conference winner. Arizona starts to look like they're in decent shape and they lose to atrocious Arizona State (RPI 248) to knock them out of the running for a bid. Washington starts to look like they could maybe get comfortable and they lose to UCLA (RPI 112). Cal nearly has a bid completely sewn up, but they lose to Stanford (RPI 95), and suddenly nobody is anywhere near a lock. If Cal and/or Washington get to the Pac-12 final they're probably ok, especially with all the chalk winning the conference tourneys so far, but if they come up short this might really be a one bid league. At this point the right move might be to just give it to Oregon, because they at least seem like they want to make it and have won four straight. Don't be shocked if the Ducks end up taking this tournament and the only Pac-12 bid this year.
4. Iona Gaels. Well shit. I couldn't be more bummed about the Gaels losing in the quarters of the MAAC Tournament, because this is a really good, fun, dangerous team and suddenly they're probably not going to get a bid to the NCAAs. That loss (to Fairfield) gives Iona they're fourth loss to a sub-100 RPI team with two of those teams being sub-200, and that's not going to help, especially considering there's only one win over a top 50 team (Nevada). They 5-3 record over the Top 100 is fine and the RPI is ok at 46, but there's an awful lot of questions about the profile here. If they had made the conference final and lost to Loyola (RPI 85) they'd be in a lot better shape, but if ifs and buts were candy and nuts every day would be Erntedankfest.
5. Seton Hall Pirates. As much as Cincinnati might be the poster team for doing things the right way to get a bid, Seton Hall might be your classic team that does something awesome to make their fans think they're going to do it and then fuck it all up, or as I like to call it, "pulling a Gopher." Really though, since beating Georgetown and making everybody say "well shit this Seton Hall team might be the goods" the Pirates have lost to Rutgers (RPI 153) and DePaul (RPI 193) which is like LOL. They play Providence tomorrow (today, if you're reading this instead of doing work) and although the Friars aren't exactly good or anything like that, they do own wins this year over Louisville and UCONN so it's not like they're a piece of crap. Plus I'd rather have Providence win so we can forget all about this shitty team who sucks and maybe they can get Iona in there instead. Do it for the children.
And with that I'm out of here. Off to the great state of Florida with the family to be closely followed by a trip to Chicago to watch the NCAA Tournament with Bogart, Dawger, and Snake. Probably drink some beer, some vodka, some redbull, and eat a few wings, too. So I have no idea if/when I'll be posting again. I'll try to get something up when I'm in Florida, but god willing I'll be too busy. Then again, the whole family will be there so maybe I'll have to pretend to "work" and blog it up. You hope.
Lastly I want to mention that I won our Big 10 Fantasy League, beating Bogart in a thriller in the championship and a big thank you to Drew Crawford. Dawger finished dead last.
That being said, I like it. Not only does it give more teams a chance to be relevant late into the season (which, face it, as a Twins fan is a big selling point) but it finally gives a meaningful advantage to the teams that win their division over the Wildcard winner. Before the only difference was home field advantage, now winning a wild card means you play one game for your playoff life while the division winners know they have a full series coming up. I'm 100% on board, thanks for asking.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Chip Armelin. I know the clearest sign of a terrible college season for a team is to start evaluating players in terms of their futures before the year is even over, but here we are, and Armelin played a great game against Nebraska. It was nice to see a player actually attempt to score, not to mention that scoring seemed to be the #1 thing on his mind - a true rarity on the Gopher teams of the Tubby Smith era. He even took a heat check after he made those three treys, and as a huge fan of the heat check it was nice to see because nobody else ever does it on this team. I'm not exactly sure how to project him going forward (assuming he stays with Minnesota) but with him, Dre Hollins, and Joe Coleman the team at least has three guard types who are aggressive with the ball and aren't afraid to attack the rim and attempt to score. For now, at least, until Tubby beats them into submission and they start being afraid to drive.
2. Colonial Conference. Well, the Colonial teams did what they were supposed to do. The CAA had two teams in the mix for an at-large bid in VCU and Drexel, and both made it through to the CAA Final this week. Obviously whichever team wins gets the auto-bid and the other will have to wait for Sunday and hope they get called, but they've done what the both needed to at this point. Both are so on the bubble that it's really tough to say if they'd get in with a loss and might need to catch a few breaks but with Murray State and Creighton getting autobids that's two at-larges that are safe. I'm hoping the committee does the right thing and let's them both in over crappy big 6 teams like Arizona, Seton Hall, or Miami, but that big conference bias has reared it's head in the past, so I'm skeptical at best. [NOTE: VCU ended up winning, and even though it was a close game that pretty much went down to the wire I came away less impressed with Drexel than I was the last time I watched them. I still think they're a good, tough mid-major but I no longer think it'll be a travesty if they don't get a bid. They'll probably just beat the Gophers in NIT round 1.]
3. Indiana Hoosiers. When Indiana started out the year hot I wasn't buying it. Then they beat Kentucky and Ohio State and I was like ok maybe. Then they lost three straight including a home loss to the Gophers and on the road at Nebraska and I was like ha ha I knew it. Then they just kind of did what decent big ten teams always do (win at home, lose on the road, beat who you should, don't get upset, blah blah) and it was boring, but this week might have won me over. The beat both Michigan State and Purdue handily and as everyone who was talking about anything about basketball last week made sure to let you know that's three top-five teams they've now beaten this year. What really won me over was in watching good size chunks of both of those games they're more athletic than I thought. They still won't be confused for Kentucky, but guys like Sheehey and Oladipo are really good athletes, and Hulls and Watford move around better than I remembered. I still don't think they can get any further than the Sweet 16, but not long ago I was penciling them in as being upset in round 1, so they've made me rethink things a bit.
4. Cincinnati Bearcats. Well that's certainly how you make a run when you're stuck on the bubble come late February. The Bearcats beat Marquette and Villanova this week (at Nova) to finish the regular season with five wins in the last six including wins over three teams in the top 56 RPI and the only loss to South Florida on the road (RPI 45). You still can't quite guarantee they're in because that horrendous strength of schedule (#321 non-conference SOS with 9 games against sub-200 RPI teams) and the ugly loss against Presbyterian (RPI 246) which has a good chance to be the worst loss by any tournament team this year, but they're now up to 5-4 against the RPI Top 50 and 7-5 road/neutral and they simply just belong. Their RPI is held back by that SOS and is shaky at 66 right now, but a few weeks ago they were in the mid-80s, so this is a solid run that's kind of inspiring in the same way the Gophers falling from solidly in to no shot in one short month is inspiring but the opposite.
5. North Carolina Tar Heels. Ruh roh. I think everybody has known all year the Heels were behind only Kentucky in pure talent, but for whatever reason seemed to not quite be able to put it together and kind of drifted along, as double digit losses to UNLV and Florida State attest to. I mean sure, they won lots of games and all, but they were definitely not living up to their talent level. And then Duke won in Chapel Hill. And something snapped. The Heels have won their last seven, including absolutely crushing Duke's soul in Durham and easy road wins against three possible tournament teams in Virginia (lock), Miami (likely), NC State (very unlikely). I was hoping they wouldn't figure it out so I could trust them to lose early, but looks like no such luck, and Kendall Marshall was just snubbed for ACC first team so, well, yeah, there's that. And keep in mind that Roy Williams has no interest in conference tournaments so if/when UNC flames out early in the ACC tourney don't let that affect your NCAA picks. Or let it. More sweet sweet delicious sexy money for me sex.
WHO SUCKED
1. St. Louis Cardinals. Lemme get this straight. First, you lose your best player, maybe the best player of his generation and the face of your franchise because you can't afford to pay him. Then you turn around and give your catcher $15mm per year? So let's see. Pujols got 10 years, $240 million from the Angels for an average salary of $24 million each season. From what I can find, the biggest offer the Cardinals put on the table was 9 years, $205 million - or $22.78 million per. You're telling me you couldn't take a few extra million you offered Molina and use it to re-sign Pujols and then offer Molina $13 per instead of $15? You're telling me he wouldn't take that? Seems like knee jerk reaction to make sure you don't lose your second most beloved player after botching it on the first. Then again, my favorite team gave their catcher 800 bajillion dollars to sit on the bench, so who am I to talk.
2. Wichita State. Losing in the semis of a middle tier conference tournament to a non-descript Illinois State team is never a good thing, but in this case it doesn't really bother me nor my love for the Shockers (the team, not the act). First of all and most importantly they're already guaranteed an at-large bid thanks to a very good resume, so this loss doesn't knock them out. Some people will say they'll be more rested but I don't really care about that because a couple of days doesn't make much difference to a 20-year old college athlete, but what I really like is this will knock their seed down a peg. If they're a 5 or 6 instead of a 3 or 4 fewer people will pick them to make the sweet 16 and even fewer will pick them to make the Elite 8 so when I do and they do I will be the winner and the money will be mine all mine oh sweet money yes I want the money oh yes.
3. The Pac-12. I'm starting to think they should just go ahead and not invite anyone from the Pac-10, including the conference winner. Arizona starts to look like they're in decent shape and they lose to atrocious Arizona State (RPI 248) to knock them out of the running for a bid. Washington starts to look like they could maybe get comfortable and they lose to UCLA (RPI 112). Cal nearly has a bid completely sewn up, but they lose to Stanford (RPI 95), and suddenly nobody is anywhere near a lock. If Cal and/or Washington get to the Pac-12 final they're probably ok, especially with all the chalk winning the conference tourneys so far, but if they come up short this might really be a one bid league. At this point the right move might be to just give it to Oregon, because they at least seem like they want to make it and have won four straight. Don't be shocked if the Ducks end up taking this tournament and the only Pac-12 bid this year.
4. Iona Gaels. Well shit. I couldn't be more bummed about the Gaels losing in the quarters of the MAAC Tournament, because this is a really good, fun, dangerous team and suddenly they're probably not going to get a bid to the NCAAs. That loss (to Fairfield) gives Iona they're fourth loss to a sub-100 RPI team with two of those teams being sub-200, and that's not going to help, especially considering there's only one win over a top 50 team (Nevada). They 5-3 record over the Top 100 is fine and the RPI is ok at 46, but there's an awful lot of questions about the profile here. If they had made the conference final and lost to Loyola (RPI 85) they'd be in a lot better shape, but if ifs and buts were candy and nuts every day would be Erntedankfest.
5. Seton Hall Pirates. As much as Cincinnati might be the poster team for doing things the right way to get a bid, Seton Hall might be your classic team that does something awesome to make their fans think they're going to do it and then fuck it all up, or as I like to call it, "pulling a Gopher." Really though, since beating Georgetown and making everybody say "well shit this Seton Hall team might be the goods" the Pirates have lost to Rutgers (RPI 153) and DePaul (RPI 193) which is like LOL. They play Providence tomorrow (today, if you're reading this instead of doing work) and although the Friars aren't exactly good or anything like that, they do own wins this year over Louisville and UCONN so it's not like they're a piece of crap. Plus I'd rather have Providence win so we can forget all about this shitty team who sucks and maybe they can get Iona in there instead. Do it for the children.
And with that I'm out of here. Off to the great state of Florida with the family to be closely followed by a trip to Chicago to watch the NCAA Tournament with Bogart, Dawger, and Snake. Probably drink some beer, some vodka, some redbull, and eat a few wings, too. So I have no idea if/when I'll be posting again. I'll try to get something up when I'm in Florida, but god willing I'll be too busy. Then again, the whole family will be there so maybe I'll have to pretend to "work" and blog it up. You hope.
Lastly I want to mention that I won our Big 10 Fantasy League, beating Bogart in a thriller in the championship and a big thank you to Drew Crawford. Dawger finished dead last.
Monday, February 27, 2012
Week in Review: 2-27/2012
I have no idea what to say or how to say it. We've been down this road again and again and written this same recap again and again. That was just an embarrassing loss, particularly when the season was on the line (as thin as that line may have been) and it was a home game against a team you've already beaten on the road. To get absolutely blown out in a must-win home game sends pretty much the loudest message possible to the committee that you don't belong in the NCAA Tournament. Even winning out the last two and making a run to the conference tournament final probably isn't enough anymore, but we don't really have to worry about it because there is zero chance this team can win at Wisconsin. They've checked out.
I don't think they've checked out on Tubby, but they've certainly checked out on this season. The body language says it all, and Ralph's 1-11 shooting performance on Sunday basically sums it up. This is a defeated team, and Tubby feels it as well. At this point these two games need to just end, then lose in the first round of the b10 tourney, and start planning for next year. It's clear the players just want this season to end, and I can't blame them because it's been miserable these last couple of weeks. But I'm not on the fire Tubby bandwagon, even if I've been critical of his game coaching abilities. I remain critical of those, but he deserves one more year, but it's a make or break year. If there's another season that goes similarly to this one, it's time to move on. The important thing is to build a program, and if he misses another NCAA Tournament, well, there's no building going on. One more year, Tubby. Show us why we were all excited when the hiring was initially announced. This is just sad.
I mean, look at Notre Dame this year. Both the Gophers and Notre Dame received exactly one 25th place vote in a poll to start the season (Gophers in the AP, Notre Dame in the coaches). Both teams lost their best player for the year, a senior power forward, early in the season (like Mbakwe for the Gophers, Tim Abromaitis led the team in both scoring and rebounding when he went down). Neither team had any kind of real impact freshman coming in, so post-injury both schools looked to be in trouble. But, where the Gophers have struggled and floundered and canceled out any flashes of brilliance with some terrible outings, Notre Dame has played together, executed well consistently, and completely bought in to Mike Brey's system and is 20-10 overall, 12-5 in the Big East, and a lock for the tournament. Look at these two teams. It's hard to say Notre Dame is significantly more talented, if at all, than the Gophers, and yet look at the results. Unsettling, at best.
We move on....
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Iowa State Cyclones. Well, for those of you out there who were complete idiots and were saying Fred Hoiberg was some kind of moron for collected talented yet troubled transfers (and you know who you are) how about you pour some Bacardi 151 in your butthole and chase it with a match? Because Iowa State just won at Kansas State - the same K-State who just beat both Baylor and Missouri on the road - to move to 11-5 in Big 12 play and 21-8 overall. They're now tied for 4th with Baylor in the Conference and have now 100% locked up an NCAA bid. While the Gophers need a miracle. I'm moving to Ames. Plus they got craps there.
2. Purdue Boilermakers. While every other Big 10 team who was chasing a bid goes down faster than your mom on prom night, Purdue is taking a stand and doing what needs to be done like full grown men. I'm just kidding about that sentence by the way, it's intentionally douchey (except for the mom joke, that's all me). Anyway, while everyone else is pooping on their heads, Purdue went into Ann Arbor and beat Michigan, a team that was undefeated at home this year, was ranked #11 in the polls, #10 in the RPI, and #21 in kenpom's ratings. That, my friends, is the definition of a signature win and puts Purdue firmly into tournament lock status. And you know how they won? Because Terone Johnson shot 9-12 for 22 points and carried the offense. You know the last time an unsung-y Gopher like Johnson stepped up to carry the team to a victory? Caddyshack. Cue rimshot.
3. Kansas Jayhawks. I kind of feel like I've been underrating the Jayhawks all year, mainly because they're a two-man show and also because I hate them and have hated them since that little wiener Jeff Boschee was running around being wienery. But they're about to win the Big 12 for the 9th straight year* after beating Missouri, and that win was a freaking ballsy ass win because they were down 19 and came back against an incredibly good team. And Thomas Robinson? Holy hell is this guy good. He's nearly flawless in the low post, and because Missouri only has one low-post kind of defender in Ricardo Ratliffe (who, by the way, is completely awesome in his own way) they chose to single cover Robinson all game and he put on a clinic. Now, this is hyperbole of the biggest fashion so don't jump down my throat, but watching him I actually was reminded of Hakeem Olajuwon. I know, I know, but I was. I can't help it. Guy's legit.
4. Miami Hurricanes. I've said it before and I'll say it again, I'm always impressed with teams on the Bubble who go out and get that big home win that they need (mainly because I don't know if I've ever seen it from my favorite team), and Miami did just that this weekend, taking down the #16 Seminoles 78-62 to jump up and likely grab themselves and NCAA bid. Most impressive is that they did it without starting center and double-double guy Reggie Johnson, who was ruled ineligible by the NCAA due to some minor infractions that will hopefully be resolved quickly. Not to mention that even without him they managed to put up 78 points on the usually defensively studly Seminoles, the first time a team has scored that much on them since January 7th. Pretty sure Miami sucks and won't win a game in the tourney, but at least they're most likely going to make it.
5. South Florida Bulls. Speaking of college teams from the state of Florida who picked up huge wins with bubble ramifications over the weekend, USF knocked off fellow bubble team Cincinnati on Sunday and can pretty officially no longer be ignored. The game wasn't pretty with the Bulls winning 46-45, both teams having just one player score in double figures, and the two teams combined to shoot 6-30 from 3-point land, but USF did what they needed to do and got a big victory. South Florida is now 11-5 in the Big East, has bumped their RPI up to 45 (right behind K-State), and now has a 4-1 record against teams between 40-100 in the RPI. Of course, they are also 0-7 vs. the RPI top 40 and have three losses against sub-100 teams, but closing out the season at 11-4 is pretty solid. You'd have to think if they can finish out 1-1 (@Louisville, vs. WVU) and then win their Big East Tourny opener they'd be in - a far cry from the team that started the year 7-7 and lost to Penn State (among other craptastic squads).
WHO SUCKED
1. Seton Hall Pirates. Are you shitting me Seton Hall? So they beat Georgetown for one of the most meaningful bubble wins this year and it's all like oh hell yes sweet what a great win awesome to see a team actually step up when they have to. And how do they follow it up? By losing at home to freaking Rutgers. Rutgers of the four conference wins and #149 RPI. Seriously, I mean if this doesn't completely wipe out all the good they did by beating the Hoyas it's damn close. I swear to god this is exactly what I expect from the Gophers or Northwestern, not a real team from the Big East. Shaheen Holloway is probably rolling over in his sports grave.
2. West Virginia Mountaineers. Even though there are plenty of teams doing everything they can to avoid getting invited to the NCAA Tournament, I don't know if anybody is doing a better job of tanking than West Virginia. On January 21 they were 15-5 and 5-2 in the Big East after beating Cincinnati. Since then they've gone 2-7 (with one of the wins taking overtime to beat Providence). This week may have been the worst, first going to Notre Dame and getting beat by 30, then taking on a Marquette squad that suspended three starters for the first half, building an 11-point half-time lead, and then blowing it and losing by one. A team that looked like an easy lock for the NCAA Tournament a month ago is now completely floundering, and with just games vs. DePaul and @ South Florida left a 2-0 finish is now an absolute must, and they might need a win or two in the Big East Tournament to get in. Seriously, if Huggins is going to find a way to cheat he might as well get started pretty quick.
3. Florida Gators. Jeez this seems like a very Florida-y week in review, which I guess is kind of appropriate since I'm going to Florida for a family vacation starting next Tuesday and that's kind of on my mind, but it's been a very Florda-centric week for being awesome and sucking so here we are. Anyway, the Gators continue to show how vulnerable they are because of their reliance on the perimeter jumper, and Georgia took advantage taking them down 76-62 with the Gators shooting just 5-23 from three. 39% of Florida's points come from three-pointers, the 3rd most in the country, and 44.6% of their shot attempts come from behind the arc (6th in the nation). Even though they do shoot them well (39.4%, 16th in the country) relying on something that can disappear in any given game, combined with a pretty bad defense (94th in Defensive efficiency) is a recipe for any early March exit.
4. Ohio State Buckeyes. Obviously there are varying degrees of sucking because I would kill your mother if it meant the Gophers would even approach Ohio State's success, but for a team that was/is supposed to be a national title contender there are some major concerns right now, with Ohio State 2-3 in their last five games including two home losses (to Michigan State and Wisconsin, but still). The Buckeyes were supposed to cruise to a Big 10 title and even with Michigan State having a tremendous year they should still be the class of the conference, but all of a sudden they're showing a whole bunch of chinks in their armor (wait, are we allowed to say that?) Buford has just been plain off most of the year, Craft hasn't turned into anything on the offensive end, and suddenly Sullinger is disappearing in games (17 total points in the last two, plus 1-7 from the free throw line when he's a 74% shooter this season). Still plenty of talent here and they're probably still one of the 10 best teams in the country, but suddenly an early round loss in the tournament doesn't seem like the impossibility it once did.
5. Cal Golden Bears. I don't know why I obsess about the Pac-10's mediocrity so much, but it's just mind boggling that a conference with schools like UCLA, USC, Washington, Cal, etc. can be so bad at basketball for so long. Every year there's a point where it looks like the Pac-12 might only get one bid, and although I don't think it's actually happened yet it's amazing how close it gets every year. And once again this season just when it looks like both Cal and Washington are safe, Cal goes out and gets destroyed by Colorado 70-57. Both Washington and Cal will probably still get in and everything, but jeez man, it's just amazing how much they suck. Also, in a semi-related note, with all the conference realignment going on I think what makes the most sense is for the Gophers to move into the Pac-12. It's common sense, really.
With conference tournaments starting up this week I need to get to work on the small conference tournament previews, so you'll have to do without your pithy outro this week. You know, the outro nobody reads because they've usually bailed on my post halfway through or so because it's too long and/or boring? Yeah, that.
* = I made this up because I was toodrunk tired to actually look it up
I don't think they've checked out on Tubby, but they've certainly checked out on this season. The body language says it all, and Ralph's 1-11 shooting performance on Sunday basically sums it up. This is a defeated team, and Tubby feels it as well. At this point these two games need to just end, then lose in the first round of the b10 tourney, and start planning for next year. It's clear the players just want this season to end, and I can't blame them because it's been miserable these last couple of weeks. But I'm not on the fire Tubby bandwagon, even if I've been critical of his game coaching abilities. I remain critical of those, but he deserves one more year, but it's a make or break year. If there's another season that goes similarly to this one, it's time to move on. The important thing is to build a program, and if he misses another NCAA Tournament, well, there's no building going on. One more year, Tubby. Show us why we were all excited when the hiring was initially announced. This is just sad.
I mean, look at Notre Dame this year. Both the Gophers and Notre Dame received exactly one 25th place vote in a poll to start the season (Gophers in the AP, Notre Dame in the coaches). Both teams lost their best player for the year, a senior power forward, early in the season (like Mbakwe for the Gophers, Tim Abromaitis led the team in both scoring and rebounding when he went down). Neither team had any kind of real impact freshman coming in, so post-injury both schools looked to be in trouble. But, where the Gophers have struggled and floundered and canceled out any flashes of brilliance with some terrible outings, Notre Dame has played together, executed well consistently, and completely bought in to Mike Brey's system and is 20-10 overall, 12-5 in the Big East, and a lock for the tournament. Look at these two teams. It's hard to say Notre Dame is significantly more talented, if at all, than the Gophers, and yet look at the results. Unsettling, at best.
We move on....
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Iowa State Cyclones. Well, for those of you out there who were complete idiots and were saying Fred Hoiberg was some kind of moron for collected talented yet troubled transfers (and you know who you are) how about you pour some Bacardi 151 in your butthole and chase it with a match? Because Iowa State just won at Kansas State - the same K-State who just beat both Baylor and Missouri on the road - to move to 11-5 in Big 12 play and 21-8 overall. They're now tied for 4th with Baylor in the Conference and have now 100% locked up an NCAA bid. While the Gophers need a miracle. I'm moving to Ames. Plus they got craps there.
2. Purdue Boilermakers. While every other Big 10 team who was chasing a bid goes down faster than your mom on prom night, Purdue is taking a stand and doing what needs to be done like full grown men. I'm just kidding about that sentence by the way, it's intentionally douchey (except for the mom joke, that's all me). Anyway, while everyone else is pooping on their heads, Purdue went into Ann Arbor and beat Michigan, a team that was undefeated at home this year, was ranked #11 in the polls, #10 in the RPI, and #21 in kenpom's ratings. That, my friends, is the definition of a signature win and puts Purdue firmly into tournament lock status. And you know how they won? Because Terone Johnson shot 9-12 for 22 points and carried the offense. You know the last time an unsung-y Gopher like Johnson stepped up to carry the team to a victory? Caddyshack. Cue rimshot.
3. Kansas Jayhawks. I kind of feel like I've been underrating the Jayhawks all year, mainly because they're a two-man show and also because I hate them and have hated them since that little wiener Jeff Boschee was running around being wienery. But they're about to win the Big 12 for the 9th straight year* after beating Missouri, and that win was a freaking ballsy ass win because they were down 19 and came back against an incredibly good team. And Thomas Robinson? Holy hell is this guy good. He's nearly flawless in the low post, and because Missouri only has one low-post kind of defender in Ricardo Ratliffe (who, by the way, is completely awesome in his own way) they chose to single cover Robinson all game and he put on a clinic. Now, this is hyperbole of the biggest fashion so don't jump down my throat, but watching him I actually was reminded of Hakeem Olajuwon. I know, I know, but I was. I can't help it. Guy's legit.
4. Miami Hurricanes. I've said it before and I'll say it again, I'm always impressed with teams on the Bubble who go out and get that big home win that they need (mainly because I don't know if I've ever seen it from my favorite team), and Miami did just that this weekend, taking down the #16 Seminoles 78-62 to jump up and likely grab themselves and NCAA bid. Most impressive is that they did it without starting center and double-double guy Reggie Johnson, who was ruled ineligible by the NCAA due to some minor infractions that will hopefully be resolved quickly. Not to mention that even without him they managed to put up 78 points on the usually defensively studly Seminoles, the first time a team has scored that much on them since January 7th. Pretty sure Miami sucks and won't win a game in the tourney, but at least they're most likely going to make it.
5. South Florida Bulls. Speaking of college teams from the state of Florida who picked up huge wins with bubble ramifications over the weekend, USF knocked off fellow bubble team Cincinnati on Sunday and can pretty officially no longer be ignored. The game wasn't pretty with the Bulls winning 46-45, both teams having just one player score in double figures, and the two teams combined to shoot 6-30 from 3-point land, but USF did what they needed to do and got a big victory. South Florida is now 11-5 in the Big East, has bumped their RPI up to 45 (right behind K-State), and now has a 4-1 record against teams between 40-100 in the RPI. Of course, they are also 0-7 vs. the RPI top 40 and have three losses against sub-100 teams, but closing out the season at 11-4 is pretty solid. You'd have to think if they can finish out 1-1 (@Louisville, vs. WVU) and then win their Big East Tourny opener they'd be in - a far cry from the team that started the year 7-7 and lost to Penn State (among other craptastic squads).
WHO SUCKED
1. Seton Hall Pirates. Are you shitting me Seton Hall? So they beat Georgetown for one of the most meaningful bubble wins this year and it's all like oh hell yes sweet what a great win awesome to see a team actually step up when they have to. And how do they follow it up? By losing at home to freaking Rutgers. Rutgers of the four conference wins and #149 RPI. Seriously, I mean if this doesn't completely wipe out all the good they did by beating the Hoyas it's damn close. I swear to god this is exactly what I expect from the Gophers or Northwestern, not a real team from the Big East. Shaheen Holloway is probably rolling over in his sports grave.
2. West Virginia Mountaineers. Even though there are plenty of teams doing everything they can to avoid getting invited to the NCAA Tournament, I don't know if anybody is doing a better job of tanking than West Virginia. On January 21 they were 15-5 and 5-2 in the Big East after beating Cincinnati. Since then they've gone 2-7 (with one of the wins taking overtime to beat Providence). This week may have been the worst, first going to Notre Dame and getting beat by 30, then taking on a Marquette squad that suspended three starters for the first half, building an 11-point half-time lead, and then blowing it and losing by one. A team that looked like an easy lock for the NCAA Tournament a month ago is now completely floundering, and with just games vs. DePaul and @ South Florida left a 2-0 finish is now an absolute must, and they might need a win or two in the Big East Tournament to get in. Seriously, if Huggins is going to find a way to cheat he might as well get started pretty quick.
3. Florida Gators. Jeez this seems like a very Florida-y week in review, which I guess is kind of appropriate since I'm going to Florida for a family vacation starting next Tuesday and that's kind of on my mind, but it's been a very Florda-centric week for being awesome and sucking so here we are. Anyway, the Gators continue to show how vulnerable they are because of their reliance on the perimeter jumper, and Georgia took advantage taking them down 76-62 with the Gators shooting just 5-23 from three. 39% of Florida's points come from three-pointers, the 3rd most in the country, and 44.6% of their shot attempts come from behind the arc (6th in the nation). Even though they do shoot them well (39.4%, 16th in the country) relying on something that can disappear in any given game, combined with a pretty bad defense (94th in Defensive efficiency) is a recipe for any early March exit.
4. Ohio State Buckeyes. Obviously there are varying degrees of sucking because I would kill your mother if it meant the Gophers would even approach Ohio State's success, but for a team that was/is supposed to be a national title contender there are some major concerns right now, with Ohio State 2-3 in their last five games including two home losses (to Michigan State and Wisconsin, but still). The Buckeyes were supposed to cruise to a Big 10 title and even with Michigan State having a tremendous year they should still be the class of the conference, but all of a sudden they're showing a whole bunch of chinks in their armor (wait, are we allowed to say that?) Buford has just been plain off most of the year, Craft hasn't turned into anything on the offensive end, and suddenly Sullinger is disappearing in games (17 total points in the last two, plus 1-7 from the free throw line when he's a 74% shooter this season). Still plenty of talent here and they're probably still one of the 10 best teams in the country, but suddenly an early round loss in the tournament doesn't seem like the impossibility it once did.
5. Cal Golden Bears. I don't know why I obsess about the Pac-10's mediocrity so much, but it's just mind boggling that a conference with schools like UCLA, USC, Washington, Cal, etc. can be so bad at basketball for so long. Every year there's a point where it looks like the Pac-12 might only get one bid, and although I don't think it's actually happened yet it's amazing how close it gets every year. And once again this season just when it looks like both Cal and Washington are safe, Cal goes out and gets destroyed by Colorado 70-57. Both Washington and Cal will probably still get in and everything, but jeez man, it's just amazing how much they suck. Also, in a semi-related note, with all the conference realignment going on I think what makes the most sense is for the Gophers to move into the Pac-12. It's common sense, really.
With conference tournaments starting up this week I need to get to work on the small conference tournament previews, so you'll have to do without your pithy outro this week. You know, the outro nobody reads because they've usually bailed on my post halfway through or so because it's too long and/or boring? Yeah, that.
* = I made this up because I was too
Sunday, February 12, 2012
Week in Review - 2/13/2011
There are no word about the Gophers, or at least nothing more than a throwaway line here and there, in the below post. Mainly because they didn't play this weekend. I ripped off about 1,200 words after the loss to the dirty dirtball Sconnies, and I don't really feel the need to do it again when nothing has changed. Plus there was only one comment left after that post where I poured out my heart and thoughts and so you asshole don't deserve any more. You're lucky I post at all.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Kentucky Wildcats. I'm now starting to think that worrying about Kentucky being a young team and/or having a less than elite in-game coach doesn't really matter because good god thee guys are just not fair. What did Kentucky do this week? Well, they demolished their top contender in the conference by 20 (Florida, more on them later) and then went into Vandy, a pretty tough place to play, and beat the Commodore, probably the third best team in the conference. They've got unstoppable inside scorers (Anthony Davis, Terrence Jones), three-point shooters (Doron Lamb, Darius Miller), slashers (Jones, Michael Gilchrist), shot blockers (Davis, Jones), and lock down perimeter defenders (Miller, Gilchrist). Their "weak link" is point guard Marquis Teague, and he'd be the best player on 90% of college teams. Just sick. I have no idea how they're going to lose in March.
2. Austin Rivers. He's still got too much of a tendency to go one man show, and when he has the ball on the break you know he's taking the shot 80% of the time, but holy crap was Rivers awesome against North Carolina. 29 points with 6 three-pointers and everyone was big, including the game winner right in Tyler Zeller's stupid face. Reading what some fans of both teams have written and this might be the "best" win by Duke in this rivalry, coming at Chapel Hill versus one of UNC's most talented squads, at least in recent memory. And they basically did it because Austin Rivers' decided to breakout. I think going pro after this season will be best for everyone involved because Rivers game is an NBA game and he's struggled trying to adjust playing within the constraints of a tight system rather than, "go get 40 Austin", but man, he is the real deal.
3. Wichita State Shockers. I don't usually like to talk about the Missouri Valley on account of it sucks so bad, but Wichita's win over Creighton this weekend was truly a thing of beauty. See, at the beginning of the year Wichita was supposed to be this year's MVC darling, a team with a shot to knock off some good squads, have a successful conference season, and roll to an easy at-large bid with a chance to make some noise. Then they lost to both Alabama and Temple in Puerto Rico and everybody was like, meh, while Creighton raced out to a 21-2 start and has everyone's darling Doug McDermott and was like Lindsay Lohan stealing everything Rachel McAdams had. But then Wichita went to Creighton and completely destroyed the Blue Jays and no Creighton has lost three straight while Wichita can put this win with their win over UNLV and good computer numbers and are probably more likely to make it at-large than Creighton. So suck on that, Lohan.
4. St. Louis Billikens. I'm guessing reading about St. Louis doesn't exactly rank in the top 5 of anybody's favorite things to do list, but it' rare you see a team take care of business like they have and have jumped from the lower-mid bubble to near the top of it. The Billikens won on the road this week at both St. Joe's and LaSalle, two teams in contention for the Atlantic 10 crown, and now sit at 8-3, just a half game behind Temple, and that followed up a week where they beat St. Bonaventure and Dayton, two other teams towards the top of the A-10. Their non-conference strength of schedule is awful (213 in the country) but they do have win over Washington, Oklahoma, Boston College, and Villanova - not exactly the 1927 Yankees but a better lineup than the Gophers' can show. And they're trending up. Fully expect Majerus to finally be back in the big dance.
5. Cal Bears. Ye, the Pac-10 is still horrible and yes, there's a good chance it's a one bid conference, but that's exactly what makes a team actually going out and doing something worthwhile notable because nobody ever does it in this league. The Bears went on their road trip through Southern California and won at both USC and UCLA (their RPIs are 228 and 121, but remember it's the Pac-10 so we're on a different curve here). This now brings them to 10-3 and 20-6 overall, and at least getting near the middle of the bubble. Oh, and in case you're wondering Justin Cobbs had 28 point and 10 assists in those two wins. (Also noteworthy: Oregon also was 2-0 this week. Devoe had 29 points and 7 assists.) It's so funny I'm going to stab myself in the ankle with the bayonet I have sitting next to the couch.
WHO SUCKED
1. Florida Gators. Bit of a rough one for the Gators and those who at one point listed the Gators as a sleeper Final Four team. First, on Tuesday, the had a big chance to make a statement going into Lexington to play the #1 Kentucky Wildcats and walked out 20-point losers, and then on Saturday they took a home gimme win vs. Tennessee and somehow ended up losing by five. Actually I shouldn't say somehow, because it's pretty obvious than when a team is as dependent on the three-pointer the way Florida is (6th in the country in % of points coming from behind the line) when the shots aren't falling they're screwed. The Gators 17-56 from behind the arc in those two games, significantly worse than their season mark of nearly 40%. And a special shout-out to Erving Walker and Bradley Beal, who, along with Kenny Boynton, are basically the entire team and were 1-11 from 3 against Kentucky and 2-11 against Tennessee. That reliance on the three makes them both a threat to make a run in March and an early upset candidate. Guess I'm going to have to guess right.
2. William Buford. Buford actually had a pretty good game earlier in the week against Purdue (29 points on 10-17 shooting) which hurt the narrative a bit but he's been absolutely awful lately other than that game, and saved one of his worst for their big loss against Sparty, shooting 2-12 with 3 turnover (to 1 assist) for a grand total of 4 points. Looking back, outside of that game against Purdue the last time Buford shot 50% or better in a game was the first game of 2012, and he's shot 29-104 in those games, and has had 29 turnover versus 21 assists. Ohio State is really good and are absolutely a title contender, but if Buford doesn't get it figured out there's no way they're getting past the sweet 16.
3. Baylor Bears. I still like these guys a lot, but after they lost to both Kansas (at home) and Missouri (on the road) this week it might be time to take a harder look. Because they've now been swept by both those teams, and considering there are only three really good teams in the Big 12 (with apologies to Iowa State) that means that Baylor hasn't had a good win in quite some time. There's no doubt they're still a very good team with the resume to prove it (wins over Kansas State, Miss State, West Virginia, St. Mary's, BYU, and San Diego State), but there are alarm bells ringing all over the place after those two sweeps. Worth noting that Perry Jones scored 5 points against Kansas on 1-8 shooting and 4 points on 2-12 shooting against Missouri, which means he's only broken double digit scoring once in four game against these two teams. I'm going to go ahead and not do anymore research and just assume he's a choker in big games. Join me, won't you?
4. The Grammys. I'm thrilled they chose to award the Foo Fighters with basically every award they were up for, but I can't forgive them for slighting Wiz Khalifa for best rap performance and song. You're seriously going to give the Grammy to Jay-Z and "Mail it in" Kanye for Otis over the masterpiece Black & Yellow from Wiz and give the other one to some collaboration with like six singer/rappers? Joke. I suppose I should just be happy it was nominated, but it should have won, but the politics of not giving a grammy to such a power collaboration probably made this inevitable. The grammys used to mean something and be about the music but, much like when they stopped eating the groundhog in Punxatawney, we live in a sissified society. Shame. Check it:
5. Murray State and Harvard. I'm going to lump these two schools together because they both have an outside chance at an at-large berth, both stumbled this weekend (Murray lost to Tennessee State or Tech I'm not sure but I'm not looking it up and Harvard lost to Princeton), and both should probably do everything they can to win their league. Harvard still looks pretty good with only one Ivy loss, and now that I look apparently Murray State is a lock to get an at-large according to ESPN so maybe I'm stupid. I'm sorry, but how exactly are they a lock? Even at 21-1 their RPI is 57 (Gophers are 54, FYI), Strength of schedule is 292, and non-conference strength of schedule is 132. They only have four wins over the RPI top 150, and the two best are over Memphis and Southern Miss whose RPIs are top 25 but everyone know they suck. One more conference loss and I say ship 'em to the NIT. Plus maybe then I'll get to see them live at Williams' Arena, score!
Oh, and in case you're wondering if you missed him, no, I didn't write about Jeremy Lin because oh my god will you people shut up.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Kentucky Wildcats. I'm now starting to think that worrying about Kentucky being a young team and/or having a less than elite in-game coach doesn't really matter because good god thee guys are just not fair. What did Kentucky do this week? Well, they demolished their top contender in the conference by 20 (Florida, more on them later) and then went into Vandy, a pretty tough place to play, and beat the Commodore, probably the third best team in the conference. They've got unstoppable inside scorers (Anthony Davis, Terrence Jones), three-point shooters (Doron Lamb, Darius Miller), slashers (Jones, Michael Gilchrist), shot blockers (Davis, Jones), and lock down perimeter defenders (Miller, Gilchrist). Their "weak link" is point guard Marquis Teague, and he'd be the best player on 90% of college teams. Just sick. I have no idea how they're going to lose in March.
2. Austin Rivers. He's still got too much of a tendency to go one man show, and when he has the ball on the break you know he's taking the shot 80% of the time, but holy crap was Rivers awesome against North Carolina. 29 points with 6 three-pointers and everyone was big, including the game winner right in Tyler Zeller's stupid face. Reading what some fans of both teams have written and this might be the "best" win by Duke in this rivalry, coming at Chapel Hill versus one of UNC's most talented squads, at least in recent memory. And they basically did it because Austin Rivers' decided to breakout. I think going pro after this season will be best for everyone involved because Rivers game is an NBA game and he's struggled trying to adjust playing within the constraints of a tight system rather than, "go get 40 Austin", but man, he is the real deal.
3. Wichita State Shockers. I don't usually like to talk about the Missouri Valley on account of it sucks so bad, but Wichita's win over Creighton this weekend was truly a thing of beauty. See, at the beginning of the year Wichita was supposed to be this year's MVC darling, a team with a shot to knock off some good squads, have a successful conference season, and roll to an easy at-large bid with a chance to make some noise. Then they lost to both Alabama and Temple in Puerto Rico and everybody was like, meh, while Creighton raced out to a 21-2 start and has everyone's darling Doug McDermott and was like Lindsay Lohan stealing everything Rachel McAdams had. But then Wichita went to Creighton and completely destroyed the Blue Jays and no Creighton has lost three straight while Wichita can put this win with their win over UNLV and good computer numbers and are probably more likely to make it at-large than Creighton. So suck on that, Lohan.
4. St. Louis Billikens. I'm guessing reading about St. Louis doesn't exactly rank in the top 5 of anybody's favorite things to do list, but it' rare you see a team take care of business like they have and have jumped from the lower-mid bubble to near the top of it. The Billikens won on the road this week at both St. Joe's and LaSalle, two teams in contention for the Atlantic 10 crown, and now sit at 8-3, just a half game behind Temple, and that followed up a week where they beat St. Bonaventure and Dayton, two other teams towards the top of the A-10. Their non-conference strength of schedule is awful (213 in the country) but they do have win over Washington, Oklahoma, Boston College, and Villanova - not exactly the 1927 Yankees but a better lineup than the Gophers' can show. And they're trending up. Fully expect Majerus to finally be back in the big dance.
5. Cal Bears. Ye, the Pac-10 is still horrible and yes, there's a good chance it's a one bid conference, but that's exactly what makes a team actually going out and doing something worthwhile notable because nobody ever does it in this league. The Bears went on their road trip through Southern California and won at both USC and UCLA (their RPIs are 228 and 121, but remember it's the Pac-10 so we're on a different curve here). This now brings them to 10-3 and 20-6 overall, and at least getting near the middle of the bubble. Oh, and in case you're wondering Justin Cobbs had 28 point and 10 assists in those two wins. (Also noteworthy: Oregon also was 2-0 this week. Devoe had 29 points and 7 assists.) It's so funny I'm going to stab myself in the ankle with the bayonet I have sitting next to the couch.
WHO SUCKED
1. Florida Gators. Bit of a rough one for the Gators and those who at one point listed the Gators as a sleeper Final Four team. First, on Tuesday, the had a big chance to make a statement going into Lexington to play the #1 Kentucky Wildcats and walked out 20-point losers, and then on Saturday they took a home gimme win vs. Tennessee and somehow ended up losing by five. Actually I shouldn't say somehow, because it's pretty obvious than when a team is as dependent on the three-pointer the way Florida is (6th in the country in % of points coming from behind the line) when the shots aren't falling they're screwed. The Gators 17-56 from behind the arc in those two games, significantly worse than their season mark of nearly 40%. And a special shout-out to Erving Walker and Bradley Beal, who, along with Kenny Boynton, are basically the entire team and were 1-11 from 3 against Kentucky and 2-11 against Tennessee. That reliance on the three makes them both a threat to make a run in March and an early upset candidate. Guess I'm going to have to guess right.
2. William Buford. Buford actually had a pretty good game earlier in the week against Purdue (29 points on 10-17 shooting) which hurt the narrative a bit but he's been absolutely awful lately other than that game, and saved one of his worst for their big loss against Sparty, shooting 2-12 with 3 turnover (to 1 assist) for a grand total of 4 points. Looking back, outside of that game against Purdue the last time Buford shot 50% or better in a game was the first game of 2012, and he's shot 29-104 in those games, and has had 29 turnover versus 21 assists. Ohio State is really good and are absolutely a title contender, but if Buford doesn't get it figured out there's no way they're getting past the sweet 16.
3. Baylor Bears. I still like these guys a lot, but after they lost to both Kansas (at home) and Missouri (on the road) this week it might be time to take a harder look. Because they've now been swept by both those teams, and considering there are only three really good teams in the Big 12 (with apologies to Iowa State) that means that Baylor hasn't had a good win in quite some time. There's no doubt they're still a very good team with the resume to prove it (wins over Kansas State, Miss State, West Virginia, St. Mary's, BYU, and San Diego State), but there are alarm bells ringing all over the place after those two sweeps. Worth noting that Perry Jones scored 5 points against Kansas on 1-8 shooting and 4 points on 2-12 shooting against Missouri, which means he's only broken double digit scoring once in four game against these two teams. I'm going to go ahead and not do anymore research and just assume he's a choker in big games. Join me, won't you?
4. The Grammys. I'm thrilled they chose to award the Foo Fighters with basically every award they were up for, but I can't forgive them for slighting Wiz Khalifa for best rap performance and song. You're seriously going to give the Grammy to Jay-Z and "Mail it in" Kanye for Otis over the masterpiece Black & Yellow from Wiz and give the other one to some collaboration with like six singer/rappers? Joke. I suppose I should just be happy it was nominated, but it should have won, but the politics of not giving a grammy to such a power collaboration probably made this inevitable. The grammys used to mean something and be about the music but, much like when they stopped eating the groundhog in Punxatawney, we live in a sissified society. Shame. Check it:
5. Murray State and Harvard. I'm going to lump these two schools together because they both have an outside chance at an at-large berth, both stumbled this weekend (Murray lost to Tennessee State or Tech I'm not sure but I'm not looking it up and Harvard lost to Princeton), and both should probably do everything they can to win their league. Harvard still looks pretty good with only one Ivy loss, and now that I look apparently Murray State is a lock to get an at-large according to ESPN so maybe I'm stupid. I'm sorry, but how exactly are they a lock? Even at 21-1 their RPI is 57 (Gophers are 54, FYI), Strength of schedule is 292, and non-conference strength of schedule is 132. They only have four wins over the RPI top 150, and the two best are over Memphis and Southern Miss whose RPIs are top 25 but everyone know they suck. One more conference loss and I say ship 'em to the NIT. Plus maybe then I'll get to see them live at Williams' Arena, score!
Oh, and in case you're wondering if you missed him, no, I didn't write about Jeremy Lin because oh my god will you people shut up.
Monday, October 3, 2011
NCAA Basketball Preview - The Pac 12
Here's what you need to know about the Pac-12 this year - they're going to be bad again. Once again, the Pac teams have been hit hard by attrition and although they continue to pull in a good share of stud recruits, the players are leaving more quickly than they can be replaced. If there was an easy way to look this up without having to straight count it or if there was a page with bids by conference by year, but there's not, so instead I'll just point out how the Pac has struggled even getting 2-3 teams bids in the last few seasons.
They've done so crappy in the non-conference slate that it's hard to build a profile back-up in a conference where seemingly everybody has a bad early loss. Last year Oregon lost to San Jose State and Idaho, UCLA lost to Montana, USC lost to Rider, Bradley, Nebraska, and TCU, Stanford lost to Tulsa, Oregon State lost to Seattle, Texas Southern, and Utah Valley, and Arizona State lost to New Mexico. Those are RPI killers and bring down the whole league. They'll stabilize eventually because of the level of some of the programs, but this might be another rough one.
Oh well, at least they have hot chicks.
1. CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS. Unlike the majority of the team's in the Pac-12, Cal managed to avoid getting hit with the big curse of graduations/NBA defections and as such they should be the best team in the conference this year, despite the fact that Justin Cobbs is probably going to be their starting point guard. And Cobbsy should have plenty of opportunity for assists with Cal bringing back a lot of fire power - Jorge Gutierrez, Harper Kamp, and Allen Crabbe are all back and all averaged over 13 points per game last season. Of course, Cal was also a pretty terrible defensive team last year and lost their best inside presence, so it's not like they're going to run away with anything here. And speaking of running.........
2. UCLA BRUINS. Just like Washington, UCLA was also hit pretty hard in the losing players department. Replacing Malcolm Lee and Tyler Honeycutt won't be easy, but luckily the Bruins have plenty coming back and a bumper crop of newcomers to help ease the transition. Interestingly, of the newcomers the only freshman is SG Norman Powell (#69 overall on Rivals), but he's been called a Jrue Holliday type athlete, so he should be pretty damn impressive. The newcomers most key to the Bruins' season are the Wear twins, 6-10 former McDonald's All-Americans who transferred over from North Carolina. Despite their identical size, their skill sets put one at the 4 and one at the 3, adding some extra flexibility. As long as they get quality point guard play from Lazeric Jones they'll be at the top end of the Pac. And I wrote all that without mentioning their best player, Reeves Nelson, who is like what Brian Cardinal or Dusty Rychart would have been if they had actual talent. So yeah, UCLA is fairly loaded, much like myself (booze not money).
3. WASHINGTON HUSKIES. Washington was hit hard by graduations and early defections, losing their three best players in PG Isaiah "Captain Circus Ball" Thomas, Justin Holiday, and Matthew Bryan-Amaning. No need to panic however, because with Lorenzo Romar still coaching and Abdul Gaddy still around the sweet Circus Ball days should continue. And thank god. Really, if you haven't taken in a Washington basketball game lately you owe it to yourself to. Two of my favorite memories of the last 2 tournaments are watching them play New Mexico and North Carolina. The tempo is just out of this world. Oh, and Washington also signed another fast as hell guard in Tony Wroten, so fire up the band!
4. ARIZONA WILDCATS. This sounds pretty familiar at this point, but Zona is yet another Pac-12 team losing a bunch of talent from last year with not only Derrick Williams but also Lamont Jones gone. Fortunately they're bringing in an excellent class to help out, highlighted by the backcourt duo of PG Josiah Turner (#2 PG, #11 overall) and SG Nick Johnson (#4 SG, #18 overall). Turner should keep Arizona's traditional of top PG play alive and I'd bet this is the best incoming backcourt in America, but Arizona's lack of impact returning players will hold them down, and their improvement will be the difference between the NCAA and NIT this year.
5. STANFORD CARDINAL. Stanford loses their leading scorer, Jeremy Green, to the NBA Draft even though he's a dummkopf and didn't get drafted, but luckily for them they have Chasson Randle (#78 recruit) coming on and ready to step in to his starting position after choosing the Cardinal over Illinois and Purdue probably because he's a nerd but didn't want to go to Northwestern because they're terrible at everything always. Everyone else is back from last year's mediocre team, and Stanford will likely end up in the same mediocre position as last season unless somebody shows a vast jump in ability. The most likely candidate is 6-8 PF Josh Owens, a fifth-year senior whose numbers nearly doubled last year.
6. OREGON DUCKS. I don't know if it's the attrition from other teams or improvement on the Ducks' part, but suddenly Oregon is looking a little frisky under second-year coach Dana Altman. I'm just kidding - it's the attrition. But things are looking up, starting with the end of last season's championship in the CBI. . What? It counts. Anyway, the Ducks lose their leading scorer and rebounder from last year and their starting point guard, but have a bunch of quality adds including guard Jabari Brown, the #19 freshman according to Rivals, and possibly the best incoming shooter on the West Coast who turned down UCONN, Kansas, and Washington to come to Eugene. Of course, your boyfriend Devoe Joseph becomes eligible after the first semester and will add some scoring pop in a more uptempo system. Of course, the smart move would have been to sit out this year so he could have played all of next season, when the Ducks will be better and, you know, he'd be eligible for the whole year. Then again, I suppose Devoe has never been known for thinking things through.
7. ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS. There's nothing more fun than watching players from Minnesota light it up for other teams and this might be your best chance outside of Iowa State. Trent Lockett led the Sun Devils in scoring last season at 13.4 per game, and with the team's 2nd, 3rd, and 4th leading scorers all gone ASU might look to Lockett to be less a part of the offense than the majority of the offense. He doubled his scoring average from his freshman to sophomore year, so he could be up for the challenge. The two guys who really need to step up are guard Kaela King and forward Carrick Felix. King was a much heralded and celebrated get for the Sun Devils as the #26 recruit in the country going into last year, but really had a disappointing year scoring over 10 points in a game just twice. Felix originally committed to Duke before pulling out and and coming to Tempe, and like King needs to live up to his pedigree if ASU is going to compete for an NCAA bid this year.
8. WASHINGTON STATE COUGARS. Losing a guy like Klay Thompson, who did everything for your team and led the conference in scoring, is always going to sting but you can try to prepare because it was pretty obvious odds were better than 50/50 he'd be heading to the NBA. What makes it worse is when DeAngelo Castro - double-digit scorer, leading rebounder, and second in the conference in FG percentage - bolts as well to head play professionally in Turkey. They still have some fire power with second leading scorer and noted chucker Faisel Aden returning to throw the ball at the rim, but the key will be to see if he and junior PG Reggie Moore can co-exist. Moore looked like a future star in his freshman year, but after Aden arrived he regressed with both Aden and Thompson needing the ball constantly. If Moore can figure out his role that could be the difference between my 9th place prediction and as high as 7th.
9. OREGON STATE BEAVERS. I thought last year the Beavers had a shot to return to relevance for the first time since the days of Corey Benjamin, but alas, it was not meant to be, but at least they had the decency to let everyone know right away by losing to Seattle, Texas Southern, and Utah Valley before the season was a month old. Just like Gary Sinise I won't get fooled again, but it is hard not to like their guards in Roberto Nelson and Jared Cunningham who are about as athletic as can be with Cunningham averaging nearly three steals per game last season, good enough for fifth in the country. Really though, this was a bad team last year who did almost nothing well (other than steal the ball), last year's leading assist man averaged just 2.4 per game and is a 280 lb. power forward, and they lost one of their best players from last season with nothing real impressive waiting to step in. So yeah, not a sleeper.
10. USC TROJANS. Last year USC made the tournament on the backs of their twin towers Nikola Vucevic and Alex Stephenson and solid guard play from the trio of Jio Fontan, Maurice Jones, and Donte Smith. Now both of the bigs are gone along with Smith, and Fontan broke his knee off during the team's trip to Brazil, leaving just Jones and 8 other scholarship players (they also have two transfers eating up schollys who won't be eligible until next year and a season-ending shoulder injury to another guy), only one of whom has played in more than 6 games in his career. Jones will have a little bit of help coming in with former Iowa forward Aaron Fuller becoming eligible this year and a big JuCo center coming in to rave reviews, but the only way USC is going to do much this year is with their usual solid defense, but not even that will be enough to make them post season relevant this year.
11. COLORADO BUFFALOES. Every so often things come together for even the most moribund of programs and unheralded players improve, diamonds in the rough shine, and for one brief year a school that rarely makes its mark on the basketball world has a huge year. Unfortunately when that happened for Colorado they somehow managed to bumblefuck it up and ended up in the NIT. Now their four leading scorers are gone, including two of the better players in school history in Alec Burks and Cory Higgins, and Colorado prepares for the basement once again, but at least it's a brand new shiny basement. Andre Roberson is a great athlete who led the team in rebounding, blocks, and steals last year and that's pretty much where the positives stop. I heard it's a fun town though.
12. UTAH UTES. Remember when Majerus had Utah running along as a major western power? Well that's not really relevant here. Utah fired their coach after four straight losing seasons, which then sent four major contributors from last year's team will eligibility remaining heading for the transfer door which, along with graduations, means a terrible Utah team will now be missing 5 of their top 6 scorers from last season. They do get back #2 leading scorer Josh Watkins at 15 per game and have a couple of assets most teams don't in a pair of 7-footers in David Foster and Josh Washburn. Neither is particularly athletic or skilled, but you can't teach size so they'll grab rebounds, block shots, and probably make at least 50% of their lay-ups.
Other previews:
Big 12
ACC
Atlantic 10
They've done so crappy in the non-conference slate that it's hard to build a profile back-up in a conference where seemingly everybody has a bad early loss. Last year Oregon lost to San Jose State and Idaho, UCLA lost to Montana, USC lost to Rider, Bradley, Nebraska, and TCU, Stanford lost to Tulsa, Oregon State lost to Seattle, Texas Southern, and Utah Valley, and Arizona State lost to New Mexico. Those are RPI killers and bring down the whole league. They'll stabilize eventually because of the level of some of the programs, but this might be another rough one.
Oh well, at least they have hot chicks.
1. CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS. Unlike the majority of the team's in the Pac-12, Cal managed to avoid getting hit with the big curse of graduations/NBA defections and as such they should be the best team in the conference this year, despite the fact that Justin Cobbs is probably going to be their starting point guard. And Cobbsy should have plenty of opportunity for assists with Cal bringing back a lot of fire power - Jorge Gutierrez, Harper Kamp, and Allen Crabbe are all back and all averaged over 13 points per game last season. Of course, Cal was also a pretty terrible defensive team last year and lost their best inside presence, so it's not like they're going to run away with anything here. And speaking of running.........
2. UCLA BRUINS. Just like Washington, UCLA was also hit pretty hard in the losing players department. Replacing Malcolm Lee and Tyler Honeycutt won't be easy, but luckily the Bruins have plenty coming back and a bumper crop of newcomers to help ease the transition. Interestingly, of the newcomers the only freshman is SG Norman Powell (#69 overall on Rivals), but he's been called a Jrue Holliday type athlete, so he should be pretty damn impressive. The newcomers most key to the Bruins' season are the Wear twins, 6-10 former McDonald's All-Americans who transferred over from North Carolina. Despite their identical size, their skill sets put one at the 4 and one at the 3, adding some extra flexibility. As long as they get quality point guard play from Lazeric Jones they'll be at the top end of the Pac. And I wrote all that without mentioning their best player, Reeves Nelson, who is like what Brian Cardinal or Dusty Rychart would have been if they had actual talent. So yeah, UCLA is fairly loaded, much like myself (booze not money).
3. WASHINGTON HUSKIES. Washington was hit hard by graduations and early defections, losing their three best players in PG Isaiah "Captain Circus Ball" Thomas, Justin Holiday, and Matthew Bryan-Amaning. No need to panic however, because with Lorenzo Romar still coaching and Abdul Gaddy still around the sweet Circus Ball days should continue. And thank god. Really, if you haven't taken in a Washington basketball game lately you owe it to yourself to. Two of my favorite memories of the last 2 tournaments are watching them play New Mexico and North Carolina. The tempo is just out of this world. Oh, and Washington also signed another fast as hell guard in Tony Wroten, so fire up the band!
4. ARIZONA WILDCATS. This sounds pretty familiar at this point, but Zona is yet another Pac-12 team losing a bunch of talent from last year with not only Derrick Williams but also Lamont Jones gone. Fortunately they're bringing in an excellent class to help out, highlighted by the backcourt duo of PG Josiah Turner (#2 PG, #11 overall) and SG Nick Johnson (#4 SG, #18 overall). Turner should keep Arizona's traditional of top PG play alive and I'd bet this is the best incoming backcourt in America, but Arizona's lack of impact returning players will hold them down, and their improvement will be the difference between the NCAA and NIT this year.
5. STANFORD CARDINAL. Stanford loses their leading scorer, Jeremy Green, to the NBA Draft even though he's a dummkopf and didn't get drafted, but luckily for them they have Chasson Randle (#78 recruit) coming on and ready to step in to his starting position after choosing the Cardinal over Illinois and Purdue probably because he's a nerd but didn't want to go to Northwestern because they're terrible at everything always. Everyone else is back from last year's mediocre team, and Stanford will likely end up in the same mediocre position as last season unless somebody shows a vast jump in ability. The most likely candidate is 6-8 PF Josh Owens, a fifth-year senior whose numbers nearly doubled last year.
6. OREGON DUCKS. I don't know if it's the attrition from other teams or improvement on the Ducks' part, but suddenly Oregon is looking a little frisky under second-year coach Dana Altman. I'm just kidding - it's the attrition. But things are looking up, starting with the end of last season's championship in the CBI. . What? It counts. Anyway, the Ducks lose their leading scorer and rebounder from last year and their starting point guard, but have a bunch of quality adds including guard Jabari Brown, the #19 freshman according to Rivals, and possibly the best incoming shooter on the West Coast who turned down UCONN, Kansas, and Washington to come to Eugene. Of course, your boyfriend Devoe Joseph becomes eligible after the first semester and will add some scoring pop in a more uptempo system. Of course, the smart move would have been to sit out this year so he could have played all of next season, when the Ducks will be better and, you know, he'd be eligible for the whole year. Then again, I suppose Devoe has never been known for thinking things through.
7. ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS. There's nothing more fun than watching players from Minnesota light it up for other teams and this might be your best chance outside of Iowa State. Trent Lockett led the Sun Devils in scoring last season at 13.4 per game, and with the team's 2nd, 3rd, and 4th leading scorers all gone ASU might look to Lockett to be less a part of the offense than the majority of the offense. He doubled his scoring average from his freshman to sophomore year, so he could be up for the challenge. The two guys who really need to step up are guard Kaela King and forward Carrick Felix. King was a much heralded and celebrated get for the Sun Devils as the #26 recruit in the country going into last year, but really had a disappointing year scoring over 10 points in a game just twice. Felix originally committed to Duke before pulling out and and coming to Tempe, and like King needs to live up to his pedigree if ASU is going to compete for an NCAA bid this year.
8. WASHINGTON STATE COUGARS. Losing a guy like Klay Thompson, who did everything for your team and led the conference in scoring, is always going to sting but you can try to prepare because it was pretty obvious odds were better than 50/50 he'd be heading to the NBA. What makes it worse is when DeAngelo Castro - double-digit scorer, leading rebounder, and second in the conference in FG percentage - bolts as well to head play professionally in Turkey. They still have some fire power with second leading scorer and noted chucker Faisel Aden returning to throw the ball at the rim, but the key will be to see if he and junior PG Reggie Moore can co-exist. Moore looked like a future star in his freshman year, but after Aden arrived he regressed with both Aden and Thompson needing the ball constantly. If Moore can figure out his role that could be the difference between my 9th place prediction and as high as 7th.
9. OREGON STATE BEAVERS. I thought last year the Beavers had a shot to return to relevance for the first time since the days of Corey Benjamin, but alas, it was not meant to be, but at least they had the decency to let everyone know right away by losing to Seattle, Texas Southern, and Utah Valley before the season was a month old. Just like Gary Sinise I won't get fooled again, but it is hard not to like their guards in Roberto Nelson and Jared Cunningham who are about as athletic as can be with Cunningham averaging nearly three steals per game last season, good enough for fifth in the country. Really though, this was a bad team last year who did almost nothing well (other than steal the ball), last year's leading assist man averaged just 2.4 per game and is a 280 lb. power forward, and they lost one of their best players from last season with nothing real impressive waiting to step in. So yeah, not a sleeper.
10. USC TROJANS. Last year USC made the tournament on the backs of their twin towers Nikola Vucevic and Alex Stephenson and solid guard play from the trio of Jio Fontan, Maurice Jones, and Donte Smith. Now both of the bigs are gone along with Smith, and Fontan broke his knee off during the team's trip to Brazil, leaving just Jones and 8 other scholarship players (they also have two transfers eating up schollys who won't be eligible until next year and a season-ending shoulder injury to another guy), only one of whom has played in more than 6 games in his career. Jones will have a little bit of help coming in with former Iowa forward Aaron Fuller becoming eligible this year and a big JuCo center coming in to rave reviews, but the only way USC is going to do much this year is with their usual solid defense, but not even that will be enough to make them post season relevant this year.
11. COLORADO BUFFALOES. Every so often things come together for even the most moribund of programs and unheralded players improve, diamonds in the rough shine, and for one brief year a school that rarely makes its mark on the basketball world has a huge year. Unfortunately when that happened for Colorado they somehow managed to bumblefuck it up and ended up in the NIT. Now their four leading scorers are gone, including two of the better players in school history in Alec Burks and Cory Higgins, and Colorado prepares for the basement once again, but at least it's a brand new shiny basement. Andre Roberson is a great athlete who led the team in rebounding, blocks, and steals last year and that's pretty much where the positives stop. I heard it's a fun town though.
12. UTAH UTES. Remember when Majerus had Utah running along as a major western power? Well that's not really relevant here. Utah fired their coach after four straight losing seasons, which then sent four major contributors from last year's team will eligibility remaining heading for the transfer door which, along with graduations, means a terrible Utah team will now be missing 5 of their top 6 scorers from last season. They do get back #2 leading scorer Josh Watkins at 15 per game and have a couple of assets most teams don't in a pair of 7-footers in David Foster and Josh Washburn. Neither is particularly athletic or skilled, but you can't teach size so they'll grab rebounds, block shots, and probably make at least 50% of their lay-ups.
Other previews:
Big 12
ACC
Atlantic 10
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