Gophers vs. Huskers Preview + Wednesday Tournaments

The Gophers play Nebraska in Lincoln, and although some of the pressure has been alleviated by the wins over Indiana and Penn State, which locked the Gophers into the NCAA Tournament, they can still close strong and get maybe as high as a 3 seed, or crash and end up around a 10.  My hope is they get to a six to avoid the 1-2 seed in the second round if they advance, and I think two more wins would do it - whether the last two regular season games or one of them and a B10 tournament win - so this is still a pretty important game.

Since the last time the Gophers played Nebraska the Huskers have gone 2-5 with the two wins home games vs. Iowa and Penn State.  In that time they've also played Ohio State and Michigan State at home, losing both by less than ten (7 and 9) so they're not exactly a juggernaut, but road games in the Big 10 are never easy even if Nebraska doesn't really have any impressive home upsets to point to.

Overall Nebraska is a pretty terrible team.  They don't do anything particularly well other than take care of the basketball, are thoroughly mediocre on defense, and area terrible shooting team.  You remember when the Gophers smoked them at Williams, right?  The talent disparity between the two teams is glaring, and the only thing that kept Nebraska at all in the game (and the Gophers won by 19) was Ray Gallegos going coo-coo from three and scoring 30 points.  Could that happen again but like, way more dramatic?  I suppose, but Gallegos has only scored more than 11 points once in the seven games since then, everyone else on Nebraska sucks, and the Gophers look like they've finally figured things out again.  If you're going to have a lull like the Gophers did, have it in the middle of the season, not the end.  I choose to believe they're back.

Minnesota 70, Nebraska 53

Now on to Wednesday's tournaments.  

ATLANTIC SUN
Another pretty terrible conference like the Big South, but the one thing the A-Sun has going for it is two dominant teams in Mercer and Florida Gulf Coast who are both in the top two in the conference in both offensive and defensive efficiency.  When you're dealing with a low major you can forget about having a balanced, deep league and you just have to hope you have a squad or two that is good enough to grab some name recognition by beating, or at least scaring, its first round NCAA foe.  Both these teams have a least a chance.
FAVORITE:  Mercer.  The Bears take the one seed by a game over FGC, but I'm not sure they're the better team.  The Bears have a nice non-conference win over Florida State, but FGC beat Miami.  Both come in hot with Mercer finishing out at 9-1 and the Eagles at 9-2, and the Eagles won their last meeting last week by 3.  This is one of those conference tournaments where if the favorites win out and Mercer meets FGC in the Final it will be worth your time to watch.  Probably. 
SLEEPER:  North Florida.  Well, probably not, but they do have Will Wilson, who you may remember as the point guard who never ever ever scores.  You will be happy to know that Wilson, who played 31.5 minutes per game this year, upped his scoring average to 3.6 per game, a career high, while upping his assists to 6.1 per game.  His total points this season were 112, nearly doubling his career point total which stood at 121 coming into the year.  And he did, in fact, finally break double figures in a game this year notching 13 against Jacksonville so congratulations.  Will Wilson, we salute you.
W's PICK:  Florida Gulf Coast.  The Eagles are just more tested, having played four tournament teams this year (Miami, Duke, Iowa State, VCU) while Mercer has just New Mexico.  Granted that all happened a long time ago and is pretty much irrelevant, but like I said, it's awfully tough to separate these teams.

PATRIOT LEAGUE
I know you're thinking whoopity-doo another terrible conference and you're right, but you're also sort of wrong too.  This might be the best version of the Patriot League I can recall (although they're still ranked as just the 17th best conference by kenpom).   Bucknell and Lehigh are top 100 teams with two others in the 100s and only Navy falling past #300.  Might not sound like much, but it's a step in the right direction and you can see the difference finally allowing athletic scholarships can make.
FAVORITE:  Bucknell.  Unfortunately C.J. McCollum broke his foot in a game against VCU this winter (a game Lehigh lost by only four) so the Bison won the league crown and the #1 seed.  That's not a slam on Bucknell, who are a very good team with wins over Purdue and LaSalle this season, it's just a bummer because most of the Lehigh team that beat Duke was back this year and McCollum is an amazing player.  Even so, Bucknell's Mike Muscala is a stud as well who averaged a double-double while leading the conference in scoring and rebounding, and if the Bison get through they're absolutely a threat to steal a win in the tournament.
SLEEPER:  Army.  The Black Knights play at a pace considerably fast than anyone else in the Patriot and do so while shooting, and making, a ton of three pointers.  That's the kind of team I like for a sleeper.
W's PICK:  Bucknell.  If McCollum returns from injury (even as of 3 days ago, the most recent article I could find, things are still up in the air) things get more interesting, but if he doesn't I expect Bucknell to run the table pretty easily.

OHIO VALLEY
Belmont moving in to the OVC was supposed to create a two-headed monster at the top of the conference with the Bruins and Murray State.  The only problem was the Racers didn't hold up their end of the bargain, whiffing on their only real out of conference chance to get a big win against Colorado (and what a horrible schedule they put together) and going just 10-6 in conference.  Belmont still has an outside chance at an at-large given good computer numbers and a 14-2 conference record but it's an outside shot at best and the OVC will most likely remain a one-bid league.
FAVORITE:  Belmont.  These guys have been relevant long enough that I can even tell you their two best players without looking it up - Ian Clark and Kerron Johnson - a pair of senior guards who have been this team's leaders forever.  Their are three other upperclassmen starters as well and those five play the majority of the team's minutes and basically score all their points.  They've been in the last two NCAA Tournaments but haven't broken through for a win yet.  With that experience now could this be the year.
SLEEPER:  Eastern Kentucky.  Given Murray State's rough year and not even ranking in kenpom's Top 25 they might be a more appropriate sleeper than EKU - the team that finished with the second best record in the league and only team in the top 2 in both O and D efficiency in the OVC - but I'm pretty sure Murray is still the sexier pick since the media has bludgeoned us all over the head with them for years.  The Colonels create a ton of turnovers but don't defend all that well, which is generally death to teams who play the Bruins.  Still, they've probably got the best shot to knock them off.
W's PICK:  Belmont.  I feel like I'm picking a lot of favorites, but that's kind of how it works in these conferences. Also, to answer my earlier rhetorical question, no it's not the year.  Belmont won't win an NCAA Tournament game again.

 


WEST COAST CONFERENCE
A pretty uninteresting conference tournament but in an interesting way.  There are two possible NCAA teams here:  Gonzaga (locked in, possible #1 seed) and St. Mary's (right on the bubble).  What St. Mary's could really use is another quality win, but the only way to get one at this point in the WCC is to beat Gonzaga.  However, because of their seeds, beating Gonzaga is only possible in the WCC Tournament Final, which would put the Gaels in automatically.  So either St. Mary's wins their way in, or they've already done enough to get the invite.  Uninteresting in an interesting way, which is what I said if you had been paying attention.
FAVORITE:  Gonzaga.  Although the WCC is far better than a lot of other conferences I have or will be previewing (ranking 10th) there might not be a more prohibitive favorite in any conference than Gonzaga.  The Zags are in line for a possible #1 seed, are 16-0 in conference play, and rank as the #4 team in the country according to kenpom.  Sure, St. Mary's (rank #19), BYU (#71), and Santa Clara (#87) are quality teams with their eyes on the upset, but Gonzaga has crushed all three of these teams this year.
SLEEPER:  San Francisco.  It's not easy to pick a sleeper here when the top four just beat up on each other and killed everyone else (between the four good teams only three of their losses came to other teams) so I'll go with the team that picked up one of those (over BYU) and has an interesting statistical profile.  The Dons, who are coached by Rex Walters which feels relevant for some reason, hit 40.2% of their three pointers this year, good for 9th best in the nation.  So that's something.  Although the way the WCC sets things up it's almost guaranteed to be either Gonzaga or St. Mary's coming out of here.
W's PICK:  St. Mary's.  This isn't an indictment of Gonzaga, because I do think they're a Final Four contender who deserves a one seed, but St. Mary's is going to be playing as if their lives depend on it in this game - and their tournament lives very well might.  I think they're flying under the radar a bit, especially since Gonzaga swept them, and I don't want to have to stop watching Matthew Dellavedova yet.  If loving that floppy haired little muppet is wrong I don't want to be right.

NORTHEASTERN CONFERENCE
You want to talk about a conference only a mother could love, let's go with the NEC.  They're consistently ranked in the bottom quartile for conference strength, and if you look at the list of teams I don't know that they've ever even been close in an NCAA Tournament game, much less won one.  There are a handful of other conferences who can never rise out of the bottom of the barrel as a whole, but outside of the SWAC I can recall each one of those conferences at least being competitive with many of them actually winning games here and there.  Not so the NEC.  Where have you gone, Charles Jones?
FAVORITE:  Robert Morris.  The closest thing the NEC puts out as a power program, the Colonials have missed the NCAA Tournament each of the last two seasons despite winning at least 12 conference games each year and advancing to the NEC Tournament Championship game.  Both years they lost to LIU-Brooklyn, which is once again a viable scenario this season.  Also researching that led me to the box score that reminded me that Robert Morris took Villanova to overtime as a 15 seed three years ago which just goes to show that I don't know what the hell I'm talking about.
SLEEPER:  Bryant.  "Who?" is what your asking and I don't blame you.  As far back as 2008 Bryant was still in D-II before starting to transition to Division I.  Four terrible years later (20 total wins including 2 last year) here are the Bulldogs in their first season eligible for the NCAA Tournament and sitting at 12-6 in the conference (good for a number 2 seed).  Cool story, bro.
W's PICK:  Bryant.  It's too good of a story, although if they do make it and it gets crammed down our throats like everything else ESPN latches on too I'm going to regret rooting for this to happen.  The Bulldogs aren't just a novelty - they rank #1 in the NEC in offensive efficiency and have two 17+ ppg scorers who cover you on the perimeter and in the paint with three other 9+ point scorers.  They probably play too crappy on the defensive side to threaten anybody in the NCAA Tournament but as far as the NEC goes?  It's in play.  Sorry Robert Morris, maybe fourth time is the charm?

As far as Tuesday's results, Arkansas - a pretty big longshot as it stood - got crushed by Missouri which should take them out of the running for an at-large.  Southern Miss lost by just four to Marshall, but that pretty much kilt them as well.  Notre Dame probably sealed it with a win over St. Johns, while Iowa kept the dream alive by beating Illinois (who is probably safe either way).  In the big elimination game between Ole Miss and Alabama the Rebels took care of business, beating Bama by four in a game they basically controlled from the tip so they're still alive, while Memphis locked up their bid, if they hadn't already, by taking down UTEP on the road.  Meanwhile Boise State looked every bit a tournament team at UNLV, but because they didn't get the win they remain an absolutely difficult read. Just looking at season results and eye test they seem legit, but are about as hard on the bubble as possible.  Interesting team to watch.

Wednesday's action features a nice mix of teams who really could use a big win -  Villanova (vs. Georgetown), Iowa State (vs. Oklahoma State), Maryland (vs. UNC) - can lock up a bid with a win - Oklahoma (@ WVU), Cal (vs. Stanford), San Diego State (vs. Air Force), Minnesota (@ Nebraska) - and team's on shaky ground who can't afford a loss to an inferior opponent - Temple (@ Fordham), LaSalle (vs. G. Washington), and VCU (vs. Richmond).  In other words, there's a ton going on that could shift a whole bunch of teams a whole bunch of lines.  Should be fun night.  I'll spend it watching the Gophers instead.

DWG's NCAA Basketball Preview: Teams #52-47

I know plenty of people are busy tonight with the debate and the Tigers/Yankees game, but I can only watch the debates 30 seconds at a time without falling asleep or dying of self-inflicted gangrene and it seems silly to write about the Tigers/Yankees game because I don't really feel like writing "Verlander gets another stupid Yankee out easily" twenty-seven times.  Thus insteadly here are some NCAA Basketball previews.  I hope you enjoy them.

I'm just kidding.  I really don't give a crap.  I know you're reading this at work and have nothing better to do with your time anyway.

52.  Illinois State Redbirds.  Creighton, Wichita State, and Northern Iowa seem to get most of the Missouri Valley headlines and hype, but this could end up being Illinois State's big year.  Last year's team took Creighton down to the wire in the MVC Championship before losing in overtime, then beat Ole Miss in the NIT before falling to eventual champ Stanford (also in OT).  That same team returns pretty much intact (including stud Jackie Carmichael who, according to anything you read on ISU on the internet "wowed" people at the LeBron Skills Academy).  They do lose their starting point guard from last season who transferred to SMU to tag along with the Redbirds' coach last year, and nobody's sure if they have a player who can fill that role capably, but who cares?  Their nickname is the Redbirds for christ's sake, and if the baseball playoffs have taught us anything (other than the Yankees suck) it's that Redbirds never die.

51.  Marshall Thundering Herd.  Marshall hasn't been to the NCAA Tournament since 1987 and has never won a game, but they've been awfully close lately which seems interesting or something I guess.  Last year they were in the hunt until a killer loss to a terrible ECU team knocked them out of the at-large running and then they were crushed in the C-USA Tournament Championship game by Memphis.  Two years prior they came out of the blocks at 15-2 before sucking the rest of the year.  Will this be the year they finally break through?  No.

50.  Belmont Bruins.  Belmont takes a big step up in the world this year, shifting from the Atlantic Sun to the Ohio Valley which means capturing an at-large bid goes from impossible to simply unlikely.  And once again, this will be the same kind of hyper-efficient team that takes care of the basketball and shoots well, but likely lacks the athleticism to truly compete with the big-time programs and really good teams.  And once again they'll probably end up in the NCAA Tournament matched up against somebody better, and everyone (myself included) will talk themselves into how Belmont could be a sweet 16 sleeper and end up picking them to beat a #4 seed in round one only to watch in horror as they get blown out by 20 and a have to put a big red X on my bracket before the first games of day 1 are out.  Looking forward to it already.

49.  Arkansas Razorbacks.  What's the best way to rebound from John Pelphrey trying to run the program straight into the ground?  Hire the sweet Mike Anderson, Nolan Richardson's protege, and let the Hogs run wild.  It didn't quite kick in for year 1, but based on his track record at UAB and Missouri I'd imagine we'll see Arkansas back in the tournament in a year or two.  Guard play is the key to running Anderson's system and Arkansas is plenty loaded here.  B.J. Young, who flirted a bit with the Gophers (while, they more threw themselves at him and he didn't say no right away - like your sister at a kegger) had a monster freshman year and probably could have gone pro but stayed on for another year, and he's got plenty of other perimeter help.  You know fun Missouri was to watch the last several years?  Yeah, that's coming to Fayetteville.  I wish I could bet on things like, Arkansas will be ranked in the top 10 at some point in the next 3 years.  I'd totally win a bunch of money.  Just like how Snacks will owe me fifty bucks when the Royals win the AL Central sometime by 2014 (a bet we made 2 years ago).  Yeah.  It's coming.  I've already spent that money investing in pumpkins.  They've been going up the month of October.  I figure if I hold those babies until January and then cash out.  BAM!  BOATLOADS!

48.  Colorado State Rams.  I don't think anyone would dispute that losing Tim Miles (to Nebraska) is a blow considering how he builds programs, but if you're going to lose a guy like that (and it was inevitable) you could do a whole lot worse than hiring Larry Eustachy.  I know it's easy to think about the scandal where he was busted partying with young college chicks but let's be honest who wouldn't want to do that, but don't forget the guy is a damn good coach.  This is the same guy who just took a garbage program in Southern Miss to the NCAA Tournament last year and had lots of success at Iowa State, and he's also the guy who started Utah State's run of brilliance back in 1998 (hadn't been to the tournament in 10 years).  And now he inherits a team that made the tournament last season and he gets most of the team back, plus Colton Iverson.  Eustachy and Iverson!  Count me in.  That's like a modern day Balki and Cousin Larry.

47.  Cal Bears.  These guys could end up with one of the best backcourts in the Pac-12 and, sad and horrifying as it is, part of the reason is Justin Cobbs.  Freed from the restraints of Tubby's molasses style offense Cobbs ended up averaging 12.6 points (16th in the conference) and 5.0 assists (2nd) per game last season, and he's probably not even the teams best guard - that would be Allen Crabbe.  They have to figure out how to replace two big losses including their lead point guard and their best post player, but having two good guards and playing in the shitbox Pac-12 pretty much assures Cal will at least be in the running for an NCAA bid.  Mother-effing Cobbs.


Previous:
Teams #68-60
Teams #59-53

Week in Review - 03.07.2011

I can't think of a single relevant thing to say about Gopher basketball right now, other than this is easily the most disappointing season I can recall - period.  Injuries played a part and so did a couple big defections, no doubt, but even with what was left and based on the start to the year this team should have been able to get a bid into the NCAA Tournament.  At this point the NIT even looks shaky.  What's more prestigious, the CBI or the CIT?  Let's just move on.  Lots of good basketball going on.

WHO WAS AWESOME

1.  Belmont Bruins.  Yes!  I know Coastal Carolina lost to Asheville so they won't be in the tournament, but they were just the second most interesting small college in play - Belmont was #1.  I mentioned it in my conference tournament preview, but I don't think anyone actually reads those so I'll mention it here - Belmont is ranked as the 20th best team in the country by kenpom.com.  It's all math and there's no eye test involved here so Belmont jumps up because of it's complete domination of the Atlantic Sun (30-4, average margin of victory around 25 points), but it's intriguing just because of how bizarre it is.  For reference, last year's top non-major or mid-major team was Murray State who was ranked at #50.  The year prior it was Siena at #59.  Teams like Belmont are never ranked that high, and I'm intrigued.  They played three good teams this year (Vandy - lost by 9 and Tennessee twice - lost by 9 and by 1) so they don't have any real great wins, but I'm very, very excited to see what they can do in the first round.

2.  Jon Diebler.  As much as I hate to give credit to a guy with one skill, Deibler had a hell of a week shooting the basketball.  He was 10-12 from three in the Buckeyes 82-61 win over Penn State and then followed that up this weekend going 7-8 as they dismantled Wisconsin.  Ohio State is a dangerous team no matter what - maybe the best team in the nation - but when Diebler is on they're basically unstoppable.  Obviously nobody can keep up that level of shooting accuracy, but he won't need to.  If he can hit even 50% in the tournament they're going to be almost impossible to beat.  Can a team with only six players really win the national title?  I guess we'll find out.

3.  Virginia Commonwealth Rams.  I believe from what I've seen of VCU that they belong in the NCAA  Tournament, even if their resume maybe disagrees.  That's why it's awesome they beat George Mason in the Colonial semi-finals (the Patriots are in regardless), not only do they get a chance to play Old Dominion tonight for an auto bid, but even a loss might put them in thanks to the quality victory they picked up.  They're 22-10 and 13-6 in a very good CAA, with an RPI of 56 and a SoS of 99.  They have wins over UCLA, Wichita State, ODU, and now George Mason.  They do have a couple bad losses (Georgia State, South Florida) but in a year with a whole bunch of weak bubble teams they stick out to me.  It would serve them better, of course, just to beat the Monarchs again and get the auto bid, but I think they deserve to be regardless.  

4.  North Carolina Tar Heels.  Guess who is suddenly the hottest team in college ball?  Two hugely impressive wins this week (@ Florida State, vs. Duke) run their win streak to seven, and they're now 26-4 overall with an ACC record of 14-2, and are in line for a two seed.  Basically Harrison Barnes has figured it out (averaging 17 and 6 during the streak) and Kendall Marshall has really blossomed since Larry Drew departed (10 pts, 7.5 assists per game the last seven).  The Heels are suddenly looking really, really tough.  Makes me cry with anger that the Gophers beat them.  Why separate knob?!  Why separate knob?!!??!

5.  Notre Dame Fighting Irish.  I'm going to help you out with your bracket.  This is a guaranteed Elite 8 team.  I'd say Final Four, because I think they are, but I can't guarantee a win over Ohio State, Pitt, or Kansas.  Here's the important thing to remember though - they're upset proof.  Too smart, too good, too disciplined, and too balanced.  They aren't going to lose to a bad/mediocre team - they're just not.  And they just finished up the season on an 11-1 run through the Big East.  They very well might be the best team in the nation.  Go ahead and put them into your Elite 8 - in ink.  Guaranteed.


WHO SUCKED

1.  Virginia Tech Hokies.  Has any team every pissed away a huge win quicker than the Hokies did to their big victory over Duke?   That win gave them the signature win they needed desperately, and with just two games to play they looked to suddenly be in solid shape.  They had BC at home and then traveled to Clemson, two fellow bubble teams, needing to win just one in order to feel pretty confident in their chances to get a bid.  Of course because it's Va Tech, they couldn't just take care of business and lost both.  And they weren't close with BC beating them by 15 and Clemson by 9.  They lost to a mediocre BC at home by 15 in a must win game.  Yuck.  Now they likely have to win two in the ACC tournament to avoid just missing the NCAAs again.  But really, who cares?  If they get in over VCU I'm going to burn the whole system to the ground.

2.  Maryland Terrapins.  The Terps were sort of supposed to be a bit of an ACC sleeper this year, but that clearly never happened, and they couldn't have put more of an upside down exclamation point on their season than they did this week dropping games to both Miami and Virginia (both by 14) to drop to 7-9 in the conference and making damn sure nobody put them anywhere near any bubbles of any kind.  Just ugly.  Apparently Jordan Williams (16.9 points, 11.6 rebs per game) can't do it all, and you actually need guards of some kind in order to win.  I guess we maybe kind of saw some of that this year at Williams Arena.

3.  Baylor Bears.  There are a lot of disappointing teams out there this year:  Maryland, as mentioned.  The Gophers, who make me cry.  Michigan State, who might sneak into the tournament anyway, and plenty of others with NCAA bid aspirations who are going to fall short.  No team, however, was as bad as Baylor this year - a team with National Championship aspirations who isn't even going to make the tournament.  An elite 8 team last year losing just one key player but gaining a consensus top-5 in the nation freshman?  How could they lose?  Well, in every possible way, culminated by losing four of their final five including two this week, @ Oklahoma State and Texas at home.  One they couldn't lose and the other they needed to win, but of course neither happened.  The only good news about all this is that maybe we'll get a chance to see them in person at the Barn.  That's an NIT CBI game I would actually show up for.  

4.  Klay Thompson.  Let me see if I have this right.  You've just won a huge game over one of the better teams in your conference on the road, a big enough win that it takes your team from "no way is this an NCAA Tournament team" to "maybe this is an NCAA tournament team."  You have one game left against UCLA, one of the two best teams in your conference and a good enough team that if you beat them on the road you suddenly jump to "this is probably an NCAA tournament team."  Huge game.  Monster game.  You're also the best player on your team and it isn't even close.  So what do you do?  Get busted for marijuana possession ON YOUR WAY HOME FROM THE USC GAME.  Seriously?  Jesus Smokey, wait until you get to your hotel.  Suspended for the game, which Washington State lost in overtime.  Do you think Thompson, who averages 21-5-4 per game, would have made a difference in a tight one?  Nice work, Marley.

5.   Gopher basketball.  Just because I want to put them in here one last time.  Unfortunately there's nothing left to say.  I was impressed by Blake's transformation from one-trick pony to do it all everything guy, and nobody gave more to the team than him.  I loved watching Mbakwe's terror show in the paint, not since Courtney James have the Gophers had a power forward like him, and Trevor's even better.  I hope he's back for another year.  I liked what I saw from Chip Armelin - an incredible athlete with a drive to score.  On a team full of guys who wait for the game to come to them, he goes out and grabs it - a little over enthusiastically at times, but at least he does it.  And I though Maverick Ahanmisi showed he could end up being a decent back-up PG some day, which is far greater praise than I expected to be giving him.  And that's pretty much it.   I can't come up with any other positive words to say.  So I'll just stop.  For now.


Finally, a shout-out to the Optimator, who won our first ever Big Ten Fantasy College Basketball League, smoking Snacks in the Championship game.  His team of Jordan Taylor, Verdell Jones, Aaron Craft, JaJuan Johnson, and Jeff Brooks took it home.  Nice work, nerd.