Hey the Preseason Top 25 polls just came out. You know what that means, time to write about how bad all these teams suck. I'm taking a look at the AP poll instead of the Coaches poll because I chose it at random. Spoiler alert: The Gophers aren't in here.
1. NORTH CAROLINA. They only lose J.P. Tokoto who entered the NBA Draft for some reason but that's fine because I think he mostly made people mad at his shooting. Marcus Paige is back and he's really good when he's not being terrible. They had zero outside shooting other than him last year, and unless one of the freshman can shoot (one supposedly can) or somebody else learned how to hit a 3-pointer in the offseason this is not the best team in basketball. Also I just read Paige is out for 3-4 weeks with an injury so maybe that will lead to somebody else being good. SPOILER: nope.
2. KENTUCKY. Hell I don't know.
3. MARYLAND. It's hard to wrap my head around Maryland being this high, but I can't argue with it. They were a 4 seed in the tournament last year and even though they didn't make it out of the weekend they were still a solid team. Melo Trimble came back and might be the best player in the conference, they added two big time transfers, and got a late commitment from Diamond Stone who is supposed to be awesome despite the ridiculous name and fills their only real hole. Still, three seems really freaking high.
4. KANSAS. Want to hear something that will blow your mind? Perry Ellis is back for another year. Even so, these guys are my pick for title winner. Ellis sucks but he's not completely useless, and even if he is Kansas has everybody back (except Kelly Oubre who was meh anyway) and they're adding two McDonald's All Americans who are both forwards. This team is deep as all hell, all they need is someone to make the leap. With so many above average players in both ability and pedigree you'd think somebody's going to do it, and if two or more do these guys will be really, really good. Bet on them. Do it. Go do it. They're like 10-1. Do it.
5. DUKE. Uh, you guys know they lost Tyus, Okafor, and Justice Winslow, right? This is all because Grayson Allen, who makes J.J. Redick look downright lovable, had that good stretch in the National Championship game, isn't it? Does he really seem like the kind of player who can carry a team for a while season. NOT BLOODY LIKELY. Good luck with him and one million freshmen. Oh, right, they got a transfer from Rice coming in too. Yes, Rice. The college. If you read any preview of Duke this year they call out a transfer from Rice as a huge positive. I am currently making a dismissive wanking motion.
6. VIRGINIA. Hoops nerds like to tell you that if you think Virginia basketball is boring, you don't really understand basketball. Well I understand basketball and I know what the pack line defense is and all that and I'm telling you - Virginia basketball is freaking boring as all hell. And basically the whole team is back again to be boring and annoying and get handjobs from announcers. Ugh. Stop already.
7. IOWA STATE. If you asked me to guess where Iowa State was rated I would have said like I don't know, maybe mid-20s or something so this is a bit of a surprise. But I guess Georges Niang is back which seems impossible and possibly illegal, and, you're not going to believe this, but the Cyclones get a couple of big deal transfers from other programs. Add that to almost the whole team being back and I guess I see why they're this high. They should be really fun and pretty good until one of their players gets suspended.
8. OKLAHOMA. The opposite of Virginia, these guys are fun as hell to watch and since Buddy Hield, who is basically a lock to lead the Big 12 in scoring, is back they probably will be again. They also ranked 8th in defensive points per possession, so it is actually possible to play fast, fun, and good defense all at the same time. Take notes, Cavaliers. Also, this is way too high for these guys.
9. GONZAGA. Lots of people say stuff like man Gonzaga is overrated, they stomp the WCC, get all this Final Four type buzz, and then flame out. Last year they finally made the Elite 8, which is definitely an accomplishment, but also just the second time they've gotten that far, the last coming in 1999. So I don't know that they've proved that they're anything more than a small conference bully. They've got a rock solid front court, but lose their entire back court so things could be rough early. This section was extremely boring.
10. WICHITA STATE. They have Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet back. That right there is enough to win the Missouri Valley. No really, you take those two and Greg Marshall and you could roll out of their with three toddlers and the Shockers would roll. Unfortunately it is both unsafe and illegal to play with toddlers so Wichita State will use real players to complement those two. I don't really feel like looking up who any of those players are, but since Wichita has been good for so long at this point I'm guessing they're probably pretty good.
11. VILLANOVA. God that sucked when these guys got bounced last year, and not just because they were my non-Kentucky pick to win. They were so freaking good. Then a dopey NC State team knocks them off. I suppose I shouldn't be surprised, that's kind of Villanova's thing. Also their thing: guards. And they have a bunch of them again. So expect the Wildcats to shoot a ton of three pointers, own the Big East, grab a high seed, and flame out early. It's what they do. Lesson learned.
12. ARIZONA. Stanley Johnson, T.J. McConnell, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, and Brandon Ashley are all gone. That is a lot of people to be gone. However Arizona is Arizona, and it must be nice to be Arizona, because they get a star transfer from Boston College and picked up one hell of a recruiting class, including stealing Allonzo Trier from the Gophers. Also, they still have Kaleb Tarczewski and he is awesome and looks like he would fight you. And you would die.
13. MICHIGAN STATE. Another team with a couple of big losses which catches a break with a big time transfer, ready to step right in. For Sparty it's Eron Harris who only scored over 17 points per game in his last season at West Virginia, no big whoop. I'm really fascinated by Lourawls Nairn (remember him?) here. He only took 8.5% of the team's shots when he was on the floor. The lowest Gopher with any real minutes played was Bakary Konate at 11.1%, which is actually way higher than Nairn. I only found two other Big Ten players under 10% last year (Jaylon Tate of Illinois and Jeremiah Kreisberg of Northwestern) but both played far fewer minutes than Nairn. So like, is that his thing? What does he do if nobody guards him? He's the anti-chucker, which in a way, is as fun as a real chucker. I love watching how teams guard Rajon Rondo - they don't. I hope that's what happens with Nairn.
14. CAL. This team could be like whoa. I bet them at 60-1 to win the whole thing this summer, and I still like them now down all the way at 20-1. They have a ton back from last year's team, not a great year, admittedly, and add two Top 10 recruits. Yes, that's TWO top 10 recruits. If the name on the jersey was Duke instead of Cal this would be a Top 5 team. Plus, I like Cuonzo Martin as a coach. This is my favorite sleeper this year.
15. INDIANA. Oh come on! Do we not play defense any more in basketball, because if this is offense only I would say the Hoosiers are too low, but overall? No chance. It's the same team. The only difference is they got some stud recruit center, but can one player suddenly take a swiss cheese defense and make it good? Or even passable? No. Maybe Antoine Broxsie back in the day, but nobody can make Yogi Ferrell look good on defense. Should score a lot of points though. Gopher/Hoosier games should be in the 160s.
16. UTAH. I know they have at least one, and maybe two, big giant tall guys, and that's generally a good start when it comes to basketsball. Ok I decided to check and they only have one, but he's really good you guys! His name is Jakob Poetl and he's a possible lottery pick who held Jahlil Okafor to 6 points and 4 turnovers in March. He can score, rebound, and block shots and now that Delon Wright is gone he should be the offenses focal point. Should be fun. No idea about all these other guys.
17. WISCONSIN. Oh come on! You're kidding me. Look, I love Nigel Hayes, I love him as much as I could ever love a Badger. I think he's most likely a more skilled Noah Vonleh and I loved Noah Vonleh and thanked Jehova every day that Tom Crean was such a terrible coach. But the Badgers are basically Hayes, Bronson Koenig who is whatever fine, and then nobody else. I know people say it's stupid to bet against the Badgers and Bo Ryan, but people like blood sausage too. People are morons. Badgers suck this year.
18. VANDERBILT. Here's another team I like, although I can also see them sucking. On paper it looks good - a potential lottery pick at center (Damian Jones) surrounded by shooters (Riley Lachance (remember him) and Wade Baldwin (him too) among others, and a team that really gelled as the season went on with most of the team back. Vandy started out 1-7 in SEC play, but closed out 8-2 and looked really good, so yeah, on paper this looks good. In reality, it's Vanderbilt so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
19. NOTRE DAME. Jerian Grant is gone, which is a fairly huge deal considering the game plan was generally "hey Jerian, go do everything for us." The back-up for that was, hey Pat Connaughton, you go do stuff instead but oops, he gone. Zach Auguste is a super stud, I'll give you that, and he's probably going to be better than Noah Vonleh, but somebody has to get him the ball. In summation, these guys suck.
20. UCONN. They have Amida Brimah who I love because he blocks like, every shot ever taken, and their transfer train is rolling, picking up Sterling Gibbs (who is kind of a dick) from Seton Hall to go with Rodney Purvis whom they stole from NC State last year or maybe the year before. Actually looking at this roster I've heard of like, everybody which seems goodish. How the hell is Omar Calhoun still in college basketball? That's insane. Also, I probably watch too much basketball.
21. LSU. One of my favorite sleepers this year. Tons of guard play back and they're bringing in the #1 recruit in the country and another big deal new guy too who just got eligible. As far as negatives go, I have a short list of what I call "dumb teams to never ever bet on" who are always dumb and do stupid stuff and lose when they shouldn't because they are dumb every year no matter what. LSU is on that list.
22. BAYLOR. Baylor still? I figured they'd drop off the face of the map with recruiting violations or something by now, but here we are. The front court has a monster in Rico Gathers who is basically a bigger Montrezl Harrell (yes bigger) without the jump shot, but their entire back court is gone. Oh what's that? A really young back court coached by Scott Drew? I smell some early season anti-Baylor wagers.
23. PURDUE. Another team I like, mainly because facing them is like going against a bunch of gigantic monsters from a Goosebumps book. A.J. Hammons is seven feet tall, 261 lbs., Isaac Haas is 7-2, 297 lbs., and incoming freshman Caleb Swanigan is 6-9, 260 lbs.. It would be pretty sweet if they figured out a way to play all three at the same time. I mean, it wouldn't make a lick of sense, but it would be pretty sweet. Anyway, Purdue plays pretty good defense, and it's probably going to be even better next season. They also can't shoot at all. So there are going to be some ugly, ugly games.
24. BUTLER. I tried to write about Butler like 4 times. That's probably enough.
25. MICHIGAN. Michigan loses nobody from last year's team, and that's good even though last year's team missed the tournament. That was more because Caris LeVert and Derrick Walton played only 37 combined games than Michigan being an actually crappy team, because I am learning John Beilein is a wizard who doesn't make crappy teams. They're still basically lacking any kind of skilled or capable big man and Zak Irvin is kind of wild out there, but this should be a pretty good team. Probably better than this ranking. Man, if Purdue could trade one of their big dudes for a shooter from Michigan, that would be pretty sweet. College sports needs trading, would be so awesome. Not like they care about the kids anyway, which is ok because neither do I. PLAY GAMES FOR MY AMUSEMENT!!!
Showing posts with label Baylor. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Baylor. Show all posts
Thursday, November 5, 2015
Wednesday, March 26, 2014
Sweet 16 Thoughts - Thursday
So far things in the NCAA Tournament have gone pretty close to what I expected. All my Final Four teams are still alive (Florida, Louisville, Arizona, Michigan State - and yes I know that's a pretty popular combination), and I called Kansas going out early. My only real misses were believing in Creighton (or maybe not believing in Baylor), believing in Duke despite knowing how horrible their defense was (I have no idea why I didn't take Michigan here), and thinking Syracuse had figured out their issues. Overall, my bracket still has a chance to win, so thank you for asking. Anyway, here's what's happening on Thursday:
#11 Dayton vs. #10 Stanford.
There are many great looking games that will be played this weekend, and this game will also be played. There isn't a lot of shine to it because even though both teams are underdogs neither team is very sexy. Stanford is nerds and Dayton is Dayton. Although Dayton looks like the more athletic team with guys like Sibert, Sanford, and Pierre who can kind of do a little of everything, Stanford has not just size but skilled size in Dwight Powell and Stefan Nastic, as well as Josh Huestis who seems to play big.
It should be a close game, but unfortunately for lose who were hoping to experience a little schadenfreude at the expense of Reid Travis with Johnny Dawkins flaming out and getting fired (which clearly isn't happening now), I think he gets another big win. I'm on Stanford here laying the three.
#6 Baylor vs. #2 Wisconsin.
I know Scott Drew is a horrible coach. I know it all the way to the bottom of my tiny black heart, but I'm not so sure Bo Ryan is that much better, at least this year and Baylor is absolutely clicking at the right time. More than that, how the hell is Wisconsin going to deal with Baylor's size and athleticism? Cory Jefferson is what Nigel Hayes hopes to be in four years and he's having a great run to end his career. Isaiah Austin seems to finally be getting it, Rico Gathers is a rebounding machine, and the wings are Royce O'Neale and Taurean Prince who are 6-6 and 6-7. Frank Kaminsky might actually get killed. You realize Duje Dukan will likely have to be prominently involved here?
Wisconsin's only chance is if Scott Drew plays a zone, which is actually Baylor's preferred, and they get hot. Drew is dumb enough to do it, but even if he does their size might bother Wisconsin enough so it actually works. This is still my biggest bet of the weekend at five units to cover three and a half and another unit on the moneyline. Also taking the under 137 for a unit, as I think Wisconsin is going to play slower and hope Baylor is dumb enough to not be able to guard. Also possible.
#4 UCLA vs. #1 Florida.
Florida was my pick to win a couple months ago and still is, and I realize that's not really going out on a limb but I just can't find any weaknesses here. They have the second best defense in the country (on a per possession basis) behind Arizona and a top 20 offense as well. They have senior leadership that seems to count in March and excellent guard play with the SEC player of the year in Scottie Wilbekin. They have five guys who can have a blow up game so if anybody is off (maybe outside Wilbekin if we're talking things beyond shooting) oh well just move on to the next guy.
I like UCLA a lot and Kyle Anderson is one of my favorite players and if Zach LaVine and Norman Powell are clicking those three and Jordan Adams form a damn good four pack, but LaVine has been horrible lately. For UCLA to win you're going to be counting on the Wear twins and Tony Parker to check Florida's group of tight end looking guys who can come at you in waves. No chance. Florida -4.5 for three units. I also think there's a decent chance this goes over the 137 because UCLA likes to run and Florida can run with anybody, but I can also see a repeat of their game against Pitt where the Bruins can't score and the Gators just grind clock. Pass for now, but I'm sure I'll do something with it prior to tip because I'm an action junkie.
#4 San Diego State vs. #1 Arizona.
This has not been a kind tournament to defensive minded teams who are limited offensively - Kansas State, Ohio State, Cincinnati, and St. Louis are all gone. San Diego State fits that mold as well with one difference - Xavier Thames. You could try to make a similar argument in favor of Cincy and Sean Kilpatrick, but where it always seems like Kilpatrick has to struggle to score, Thames seems to do it much more effortlessly. I know that kind of sounds stupid since Kilpatrick averaged over 20 points per game this year, but I managed to watch a lot of Cincy and see SDSU a few times and it's just an impression I got, I can't really back it up. Just trust me I'm much smarter than you.
Yes, the Wildcats have the #1 point-per-possession defense in the field, and it's because they force opponents to take jump shots and pack the paint to take away almost anything driving to the rim. Well, Thames doesn't drive - he's taken only 17% of his shots this year at the rim but hits 40% on both two point and three point jumpers. Arizona is basically going to be daring an excellent jump shooter to shoot jump shots. I don't think that will be enough for the Aztecs to pull off an upset, but with that dynamic and a really, really good defense I expect this to be close. I know Arizona beat SDSU by 9 in San Diego earlier this year, but Arizona had Brandon Ashley in that game and SDSU didn't have Dwayne Polee so I'm on SDSU getting seven for two units. I also expect a real grind it out game, but the 122 is too low a number for me since it's a tournament game I figure to be close which could result in a lot of fouls, especially since my perception is in an elimination game losing teams continue to foul longer than they normally would. Instead I'm throwing two units on the first half line, under 55.5.
#11 Dayton vs. #10 Stanford.
There are many great looking games that will be played this weekend, and this game will also be played. There isn't a lot of shine to it because even though both teams are underdogs neither team is very sexy. Stanford is nerds and Dayton is Dayton. Although Dayton looks like the more athletic team with guys like Sibert, Sanford, and Pierre who can kind of do a little of everything, Stanford has not just size but skilled size in Dwight Powell and Stefan Nastic, as well as Josh Huestis who seems to play big.
It should be a close game, but unfortunately for lose who were hoping to experience a little schadenfreude at the expense of Reid Travis with Johnny Dawkins flaming out and getting fired (which clearly isn't happening now), I think he gets another big win. I'm on Stanford here laying the three.
#6 Baylor vs. #2 Wisconsin.
I know Scott Drew is a horrible coach. I know it all the way to the bottom of my tiny black heart, but I'm not so sure Bo Ryan is that much better, at least this year and Baylor is absolutely clicking at the right time. More than that, how the hell is Wisconsin going to deal with Baylor's size and athleticism? Cory Jefferson is what Nigel Hayes hopes to be in four years and he's having a great run to end his career. Isaiah Austin seems to finally be getting it, Rico Gathers is a rebounding machine, and the wings are Royce O'Neale and Taurean Prince who are 6-6 and 6-7. Frank Kaminsky might actually get killed. You realize Duje Dukan will likely have to be prominently involved here?
Wisconsin's only chance is if Scott Drew plays a zone, which is actually Baylor's preferred, and they get hot. Drew is dumb enough to do it, but even if he does their size might bother Wisconsin enough so it actually works. This is still my biggest bet of the weekend at five units to cover three and a half and another unit on the moneyline. Also taking the under 137 for a unit, as I think Wisconsin is going to play slower and hope Baylor is dumb enough to not be able to guard. Also possible.
#4 UCLA vs. #1 Florida.
Florida was my pick to win a couple months ago and still is, and I realize that's not really going out on a limb but I just can't find any weaknesses here. They have the second best defense in the country (on a per possession basis) behind Arizona and a top 20 offense as well. They have senior leadership that seems to count in March and excellent guard play with the SEC player of the year in Scottie Wilbekin. They have five guys who can have a blow up game so if anybody is off (maybe outside Wilbekin if we're talking things beyond shooting) oh well just move on to the next guy.
I like UCLA a lot and Kyle Anderson is one of my favorite players and if Zach LaVine and Norman Powell are clicking those three and Jordan Adams form a damn good four pack, but LaVine has been horrible lately. For UCLA to win you're going to be counting on the Wear twins and Tony Parker to check Florida's group of tight end looking guys who can come at you in waves. No chance. Florida -4.5 for three units. I also think there's a decent chance this goes over the 137 because UCLA likes to run and Florida can run with anybody, but I can also see a repeat of their game against Pitt where the Bruins can't score and the Gators just grind clock. Pass for now, but I'm sure I'll do something with it prior to tip because I'm an action junkie.
#4 San Diego State vs. #1 Arizona.
This has not been a kind tournament to defensive minded teams who are limited offensively - Kansas State, Ohio State, Cincinnati, and St. Louis are all gone. San Diego State fits that mold as well with one difference - Xavier Thames. You could try to make a similar argument in favor of Cincy and Sean Kilpatrick, but where it always seems like Kilpatrick has to struggle to score, Thames seems to do it much more effortlessly. I know that kind of sounds stupid since Kilpatrick averaged over 20 points per game this year, but I managed to watch a lot of Cincy and see SDSU a few times and it's just an impression I got, I can't really back it up. Just trust me I'm much smarter than you.
Yes, the Wildcats have the #1 point-per-possession defense in the field, and it's because they force opponents to take jump shots and pack the paint to take away almost anything driving to the rim. Well, Thames doesn't drive - he's taken only 17% of his shots this year at the rim but hits 40% on both two point and three point jumpers. Arizona is basically going to be daring an excellent jump shooter to shoot jump shots. I don't think that will be enough for the Aztecs to pull off an upset, but with that dynamic and a really, really good defense I expect this to be close. I know Arizona beat SDSU by 9 in San Diego earlier this year, but Arizona had Brandon Ashley in that game and SDSU didn't have Dwayne Polee so I'm on SDSU getting seven for two units. I also expect a real grind it out game, but the 122 is too low a number for me since it's a tournament game I figure to be close which could result in a lot of fouls, especially since my perception is in an elimination game losing teams continue to foul longer than they normally would. Instead I'm throwing two units on the first half line, under 55.5.
Tuesday, July 30, 2013
Gopher 2013-2014 Basketball Schedule Revealed
The Gopher hoop non-conference schedule was revealed Tuesday. And here it is. Rankings are from last year.
11/8 vs. LEHIGH (RPI 107, kenpom 96): A possible top 100 team is always a solid way to kick-off the new year, however the Gophers are a year too late. The players responsible for that awesome Lehigh win over Duke in the NCAA Tournament two years ago have graduated, with C.J. McCollum in the NBA and Gabe Knutson probably like, filing taxes or something since Lehigh is a nerd school. Nerds and wrestling I think. Definitely not basketball.
11/12 vs. MONTANA (RPI 74, kenpom 160): Hey an NCAA Tournament team last year! Let's rock and roll! Actually the Grizzlies have a nice little program going with back-to-back Big Sky Championships and despite losing two of their top three scorers Montana is the most likely non-conference home opponent to end up in the NCAA Tournament this season. Yes, that is correct. I'm serious. No you shut up.
11/16 @ RICHMOND (RPI 91, kenpom 83): The back half of a home-and-home started by Tubby Smith, Richard Pitino honored the commitment so the Gopher will face the Spiders in their only true home game of the non-conference schedule. Richmond brings back three starters from last year's totally mediocre team, and not only might this be a road game but is likely to be the toughest Gopher opponent this year outside of the Maui Invitational. Richmond plays at a pretty slow pace under Chris Mooney so I really like this one as a test to see if the Gophers can impose their will and influence tempo in a tough environment. Could be a pretty good barometer for the entire season, although I believe it's pronounced thermometer.
11/19 vs. COASTAL CAROLINA (RPI 259, kenpom 226): Not really the Gophers' fault they got stuck with these guys as their "first round mainland opponent" in the Maui Invitational, but they weren't good last year and lost their starting back court so I'm guessing they aren't going to be good this year either. On the bright side, you can count on at least one member of the Twin Cities' sports media to bust out an article about what a Chanticleer is (besides tasty, terrific pizza). I predict Reusse, especially if the Gophers lose the previous game at Richmond. He loves that condescending shit, too bad he doesn't do it well.
11/21 vs. WOFFORD (RPI 250, kenpom 256): Wofford has really fallen off since the great Noah Dahlman brought the Terriers to back-to-back NCAA Tournaments (and near wins against Wisconsin and BYU), but at least they are bringing some firepower back from last year's terrible team. Plus they got a guy named Indiana Faithfull which is pretty fricking crazy.
11/25 vs. SYRACUSE (RPI 14, in Maui, kenpom 8): The jewel of the schedule without a doubt, because Syracuse should be in the mix to be a top 10 team again this year. Also, earlier when I wrote about this match-up I mentioned it would be the great back court of the Gophers vs. the great front court of Syracuse, but it turns out I forgot about Michael Gbinije. He's a combo guard who transferred to the Orange after one year at Duke. He was the #29 recruit in the country coming out of high school. He's also 6-7 and should play at the top of the most wing-spanny zone I've ever seen, which could have all five guys at 6-7 or taller at times. As that weird creepy witch said in the Robin Hood with Kevin Costner, "We're doomed."
11/26 vs. ARKANSAS (RPI 95/kenpom 71)(CAL (RPI 54/kenpom 56) in Maui: Cal should be the better match-up here with both teams saw their top player leave school early to enter the NBA Draft (Cal = Allen Crabbe, first round pick; Arkansas = B.J. Young, undrafted - ha ha!) because Cal brings back Justin Cobbs (back in more ways than one) and most of their team from last year while Arkansas also loses Marshawn Powell, the team's second leading scorer, who left the team to go play in Europe or something. This will either be an addition by subtraction year for Arkansas or subtraction by subtraction and probably that second one. Hope for Cal.
11/27 vs. Team 3 in Maui, anywhere from Gonzaga (RPI 6/kenpom 4) to Chaminade (not in D-I): Other options are Baylor (RPI 70/kenpom 26) and Dayton (RPI 114/kenpom 67). Obviously the better the opponent the better the potential results, but seeing as how it's not a random draw for each game you need to win to continue getting quality opponents. Syracuse will be tough, but losing to them and then beating Cal and Baylor or something would still be an outstanding result. Most likely results are a loss in round 1 and then a win over both Arkansas and Dayton. Not bad, but not great. Like a night with your mom.
12/3 vs. FLORIDA STATE (RPI 84/kenpom 124): Andrew Wiggins screwed up everything by choosing Kansas over the Seminoles and now this game is more yawn than not yawn. Last year was one of the worst year's these guys have had under Leonard Hamilton, and with Michael Snaer gone the question is if they'll be worse. Most the rest of the team is back and guys like Okaro White and Terrance Shannon could certainly take a leap, and there's a nice freshman coming in but Snaer was the do-everything team leader type that's tough to replace. Although given how little that mattered last season maybe it turns out chemistry is overrated after all. Don't tell Gardy.
12/7 vs. NEW ORLEANS (RPI 346/kenpom 346): Now things get really, really ugly. You could probably talk yourself into the schedule so far, but these last four games are just nasty, starting with the worst of the worst in the Privateers and yes I had to look that up. They're also in the Southland starting this year after being independent (looked that up) after they used to be D-I but somehow dropped back into D-II or something like that and then got reinstated (remembering this on my own). Should be a fun game though for the first half at least since they're one of the most uptempo teams in the nation. I got news for you though. Ervin Johnson isn't walking through that door.
12/10 vs. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (RPI 62/kenpom 103): I'm sure everyone is thrilled again because for some reason people love the stupid little teams from the Dakotas, but guess what? With Nate Wolters off to the NBA maybe SDSU just becomes a shitty little shithead team again. Remember when the Gophers played them last year without Wolters? Yeah it'll be like that again but probably worse because Jordan Dykstra probably still hasn't cut his hair. I don't know what he's waiting for. There is good news, however. According to their website there are ZERO Minnesota natives on the roster this year. So shut it already.
12/20 vs. NEBRASKA-OMAHA (RPI 285/kenpom 321): I think they've been a D-I team for like 2 years, which is usually a pretty bad sign. They kind of give the appearance of maybe being slightly interesting because 6 of their top 7 scorers from last season should be back. The first college hockey game I ever went to was UMD vs. Nebraska-Omaha. Their nickname is the Mavericks and they abbreviate their team NEOM. The college World Series is still in Omaha. I once had alligator in Omaha (not making that up...might have been Lincoln). I'm just writing random facts now. I once spent a night getting drunk in a hotel in Nebraska by myself. Here is what I wrote that night. Gripping.
12/28 vs. TEXAS A&M CORPUS CHRISTI (RPI 323/kenpom 309): Remember when these guys made the NCAA Tournament somehow and threw a little teeny tiny scare into Wisconsin before losing? Man that would have been awesome if they one, am I right? Since then they've had as many seasons with single-digit wins as double-digit, and I don't want to throw too many fancy stats at you or anything but not even winning 10 games in a season is a pretty good indicator of sucking and TAMUCC has back-to-back years with 6 total wins. I was going to try to find something good to say but I need to get a drink so let's just wrap this up.
The key to a good schedule is lots of games against teams in the 50-150 range and avoiding playing teams that are sub 200 and especially sub-300. The Gophers likely will have six or seven games against 200+ teams and might have three against teams in the top 100. A strong league can smooth that out but you have to, you know, win the games. It was always going to be an interesting season, but as Lewis Carroll once wrote, it's getting "interestinger and interestinger."
11/8 vs. LEHIGH (RPI 107, kenpom 96): A possible top 100 team is always a solid way to kick-off the new year, however the Gophers are a year too late. The players responsible for that awesome Lehigh win over Duke in the NCAA Tournament two years ago have graduated, with C.J. McCollum in the NBA and Gabe Knutson probably like, filing taxes or something since Lehigh is a nerd school. Nerds and wrestling I think. Definitely not basketball.
11/12 vs. MONTANA (RPI 74, kenpom 160): Hey an NCAA Tournament team last year! Let's rock and roll! Actually the Grizzlies have a nice little program going with back-to-back Big Sky Championships and despite losing two of their top three scorers Montana is the most likely non-conference home opponent to end up in the NCAA Tournament this season. Yes, that is correct. I'm serious. No you shut up.
11/16 @ RICHMOND (RPI 91, kenpom 83): The back half of a home-and-home started by Tubby Smith, Richard Pitino honored the commitment so the Gopher will face the Spiders in their only true home game of the non-conference schedule. Richmond brings back three starters from last year's totally mediocre team, and not only might this be a road game but is likely to be the toughest Gopher opponent this year outside of the Maui Invitational. Richmond plays at a pretty slow pace under Chris Mooney so I really like this one as a test to see if the Gophers can impose their will and influence tempo in a tough environment. Could be a pretty good barometer for the entire season, although I believe it's pronounced thermometer.
11/19 vs. COASTAL CAROLINA (RPI 259, kenpom 226): Not really the Gophers' fault they got stuck with these guys as their "first round mainland opponent" in the Maui Invitational, but they weren't good last year and lost their starting back court so I'm guessing they aren't going to be good this year either. On the bright side, you can count on at least one member of the Twin Cities' sports media to bust out an article about what a Chanticleer is (besides tasty, terrific pizza). I predict Reusse, especially if the Gophers lose the previous game at Richmond. He loves that condescending shit, too bad he doesn't do it well.
11/21 vs. WOFFORD (RPI 250, kenpom 256): Wofford has really fallen off since the great Noah Dahlman brought the Terriers to back-to-back NCAA Tournaments (and near wins against Wisconsin and BYU), but at least they are bringing some firepower back from last year's terrible team. Plus they got a guy named Indiana Faithfull which is pretty fricking crazy.
11/25 vs. SYRACUSE (RPI 14, in Maui, kenpom 8): The jewel of the schedule without a doubt, because Syracuse should be in the mix to be a top 10 team again this year. Also, earlier when I wrote about this match-up I mentioned it would be the great back court of the Gophers vs. the great front court of Syracuse, but it turns out I forgot about Michael Gbinije. He's a combo guard who transferred to the Orange after one year at Duke. He was the #29 recruit in the country coming out of high school. He's also 6-7 and should play at the top of the most wing-spanny zone I've ever seen, which could have all five guys at 6-7 or taller at times. As that weird creepy witch said in the Robin Hood with Kevin Costner, "We're doomed."
11/26 vs. ARKANSAS (RPI 95/kenpom 71)(CAL (RPI 54/kenpom 56) in Maui: Cal should be the better match-up here with both teams saw their top player leave school early to enter the NBA Draft (Cal = Allen Crabbe, first round pick; Arkansas = B.J. Young, undrafted - ha ha!) because Cal brings back Justin Cobbs (back in more ways than one) and most of their team from last year while Arkansas also loses Marshawn Powell, the team's second leading scorer, who left the team to go play in Europe or something. This will either be an addition by subtraction year for Arkansas or subtraction by subtraction and probably that second one. Hope for Cal.
11/27 vs. Team 3 in Maui, anywhere from Gonzaga (RPI 6/kenpom 4) to Chaminade (not in D-I): Other options are Baylor (RPI 70/kenpom 26) and Dayton (RPI 114/kenpom 67). Obviously the better the opponent the better the potential results, but seeing as how it's not a random draw for each game you need to win to continue getting quality opponents. Syracuse will be tough, but losing to them and then beating Cal and Baylor or something would still be an outstanding result. Most likely results are a loss in round 1 and then a win over both Arkansas and Dayton. Not bad, but not great. Like a night with your mom.
12/3 vs. FLORIDA STATE (RPI 84/kenpom 124): Andrew Wiggins screwed up everything by choosing Kansas over the Seminoles and now this game is more yawn than not yawn. Last year was one of the worst year's these guys have had under Leonard Hamilton, and with Michael Snaer gone the question is if they'll be worse. Most the rest of the team is back and guys like Okaro White and Terrance Shannon could certainly take a leap, and there's a nice freshman coming in but Snaer was the do-everything team leader type that's tough to replace. Although given how little that mattered last season maybe it turns out chemistry is overrated after all. Don't tell Gardy.
12/7 vs. NEW ORLEANS (RPI 346/kenpom 346): Now things get really, really ugly. You could probably talk yourself into the schedule so far, but these last four games are just nasty, starting with the worst of the worst in the Privateers and yes I had to look that up. They're also in the Southland starting this year after being independent (looked that up) after they used to be D-I but somehow dropped back into D-II or something like that and then got reinstated (remembering this on my own). Should be a fun game though for the first half at least since they're one of the most uptempo teams in the nation. I got news for you though. Ervin Johnson isn't walking through that door.
12/10 vs. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (RPI 62/kenpom 103): I'm sure everyone is thrilled again because for some reason people love the stupid little teams from the Dakotas, but guess what? With Nate Wolters off to the NBA maybe SDSU just becomes a shitty little shithead team again. Remember when the Gophers played them last year without Wolters? Yeah it'll be like that again but probably worse because Jordan Dykstra probably still hasn't cut his hair. I don't know what he's waiting for. There is good news, however. According to their website there are ZERO Minnesota natives on the roster this year. So shut it already.
12/20 vs. NEBRASKA-OMAHA (RPI 285/kenpom 321): I think they've been a D-I team for like 2 years, which is usually a pretty bad sign. They kind of give the appearance of maybe being slightly interesting because 6 of their top 7 scorers from last season should be back. The first college hockey game I ever went to was UMD vs. Nebraska-Omaha. Their nickname is the Mavericks and they abbreviate their team NEOM. The college World Series is still in Omaha. I once had alligator in Omaha (not making that up...might have been Lincoln). I'm just writing random facts now. I once spent a night getting drunk in a hotel in Nebraska by myself. Here is what I wrote that night. Gripping.
12/28 vs. TEXAS A&M CORPUS CHRISTI (RPI 323/kenpom 309): Remember when these guys made the NCAA Tournament somehow and threw a little teeny tiny scare into Wisconsin before losing? Man that would have been awesome if they one, am I right? Since then they've had as many seasons with single-digit wins as double-digit, and I don't want to throw too many fancy stats at you or anything but not even winning 10 games in a season is a pretty good indicator of sucking and TAMUCC has back-to-back years with 6 total wins. I was going to try to find something good to say but I need to get a drink so let's just wrap this up.
The key to a good schedule is lots of games against teams in the 50-150 range and avoiding playing teams that are sub 200 and especially sub-300. The Gophers likely will have six or seven games against 200+ teams and might have three against teams in the top 100. A strong league can smooth that out but you have to, you know, win the games. It was always going to be an interesting season, but as Lewis Carroll once wrote, it's getting "interestinger and interestinger."
Monday, March 4, 2013
Conference Tournament Previews (Tuesday Editiion)
It's March, which means I'll do what I do every year at this time. Well, actually what I do every year at this time is obsess over the Bubble and try to figure out exactly how many games the Gophers need to win to get a bid or if they're already out unless they win the B10 Tournament. Since I don't have to worry about that this year (they're in, nerds) I'll concentrate more on the other thing I do every year at the beginning of March - celebrate the smaller conference tournaments and rejoice in day action. So here's we go.
These tournaments kick-off the action, beginning on Tuesday:
[ED. NOTE: I stepped all over TRE's Gopher hockey post, so make sure to check it out.]
BIG SOUTH
Wow. What a way to kick things off. The Big South has traditionally been pretty bad, but usually one of the teams is at least a threat. In recent years Winthrop, UNC-Asheville, and Gardner Webb have at least been a threat to win a first round game (with Winthrop pretty much being a mid-major darling) but those days are gone. This is a bad conference (ranks #29 out of #31 NCAA eligible conferences.
FAVORITE: Charleston Southern. Both the Buccaneers and High Point finished the conference schedule at 12-4, but the Bucs get the #1 seed thanks to beating the Panthers in their only meeting this season. Although these two teams are the best of the Big South by a wide margin they still aren't very good, combining to beat just three teams ranked better than #200 in kenpom's ratings (and none better than #189) and they have a combined five wins over non D-I teams between them.
SLEEPER: Virginia Military Academy. I believe in all the years I've been doing this I've picked VMI as the sleeper in the Big South regardless of their record (8-8 this year) because they play such an interesting style - run, run, run, score, no defense. It hasn't really worked this year, outside of a 4-0 start to conference play, but despite that pace the Keydets rarely turn the ball over so they get off tons of shots. They just need to get hot and they can make a run, although that hasn't happened much this season.
W's PICK: High Point. This is rough. Every one of these teams has some pretty glaring flaws, even compared to their peers. I'll go with the Panthers who have the league's #1 most efficient offense top defensive squad vs. three-pointers, but really anybody could come out of here to get crushed later.
HORIZON LEAGUE
It's a definite change to not just write Butler in here, but these are the winds of change and so go the days of our lives or something. And now Butler might be joining that new basketball only conference with the Catholic 7 from the Big East? Or formerly Big East or new Big East? I can't keep up. I enjoyed the first few rounds of conference realignment as much as the next guy, but seriously can we take our foot of the gas so I can figure out who goes where for a year or two?
FAVORITE: Valparaiso. Despite the loss of the star power of Butler, there are still a couple of stacked teams in the Horizon in Valpo and Detroit, who both made my preseason list of Top 68 teams (at #36 and #46, respectively). Although neither is in the at-large conversation anymore, both have enough ability to pull off a first round upset in the NCAA Tournament.
SLEEPER: UW-Green Bay. The Phoenix (lol) have non-conference wins over NDSU and Marquette, two of just four wins this conference managed against Kenpom Top 100 teams this year (none of which came from Valpo or Detroit, it's worth noting). They probably aren't a major threat this year but UWGB is a really young team with only one senior, so expect the Phoenix to rise to the top of the standings in the next year or two. You like that? Expect the Phoenix to rise? God I'm Rick Reilly.
W's PICK: Valparaiso. It actually pains me a little to pick against Detroit and Ray McCallum who will be in the NBA someday and is super awesome, but Valpo is stacked. Their trio of Bobby Capobianco (formerly of Indiana), Ryan Broekhoff, and Kevin van Wijk give them a combination of size, ability, and experience that few mid-majors can match. Assuming they can get somebody - anybody - to give them capable guard play and this is a dangerous March team.
Last night in college basketball nothing really interesting happened. Louisville crushed Cincinnati, which was supposed to happen, and Kansas super-crushed Texas Tech, which was definitely supposed to happen. This helps Kansas creep closer to a one seed as well as putting more pressure on Cincy who was looking like a definite NCAA team earlier this year but has sputtered lately. As long as they don't blow their last game against South Florida they should still be ok, but they've lost four of their last five and six of their last eight, so there's definitely some pressure involved in that last game.
The biggest bubble news of the night was Baylor's loss at Texas, which pretty much ends the Bears hope for an at-large. Has anybody ever done less with more than Scott Drew? Well I guess that's a little rough considering he has two Elite Eights since 2010, but those teams seemed to succeed in spite of Drew, not because of him. Right?
As far as bubble action tonight Arkansas is probably in the biggest must win situation here (@ Missouri) with a too high RPI and this being a big chance to get a signature win to help bring that down, although Boise State could really, really use a win at UNLV. Notre Dame is probably already in but it would behoove them to not lose at home to St. John's. Illinois probably puts themselves solidly in if they win at Iowa, while a loss isn't a killer, while Memphis faces a similar game at UTEP but a loss would hurt the Tigers quite a bit more. Lastly, we have a true elimination game with Alabama @ Ole Miss. It's very possible neither team gets in, but the winner definitely won't (barring an SEC Tournament title). Fun time of year, especially when I'm not worried about the Gophers every single day. Neat.
These tournaments kick-off the action, beginning on Tuesday:
[ED. NOTE: I stepped all over TRE's Gopher hockey post, so make sure to check it out.]
BIG SOUTH
Wow. What a way to kick things off. The Big South has traditionally been pretty bad, but usually one of the teams is at least a threat. In recent years Winthrop, UNC-Asheville, and Gardner Webb have at least been a threat to win a first round game (with Winthrop pretty much being a mid-major darling) but those days are gone. This is a bad conference (ranks #29 out of #31 NCAA eligible conferences.
FAVORITE: Charleston Southern. Both the Buccaneers and High Point finished the conference schedule at 12-4, but the Bucs get the #1 seed thanks to beating the Panthers in their only meeting this season. Although these two teams are the best of the Big South by a wide margin they still aren't very good, combining to beat just three teams ranked better than #200 in kenpom's ratings (and none better than #189) and they have a combined five wins over non D-I teams between them.
SLEEPER: Virginia Military Academy. I believe in all the years I've been doing this I've picked VMI as the sleeper in the Big South regardless of their record (8-8 this year) because they play such an interesting style - run, run, run, score, no defense. It hasn't really worked this year, outside of a 4-0 start to conference play, but despite that pace the Keydets rarely turn the ball over so they get off tons of shots. They just need to get hot and they can make a run, although that hasn't happened much this season.
W's PICK: High Point. This is rough. Every one of these teams has some pretty glaring flaws, even compared to their peers. I'll go with the Panthers who have the league's #1 most efficient offense top defensive squad vs. three-pointers, but really anybody could come out of here to get crushed later.
HORIZON LEAGUE
It's a definite change to not just write Butler in here, but these are the winds of change and so go the days of our lives or something. And now Butler might be joining that new basketball only conference with the Catholic 7 from the Big East? Or formerly Big East or new Big East? I can't keep up. I enjoyed the first few rounds of conference realignment as much as the next guy, but seriously can we take our foot of the gas so I can figure out who goes where for a year or two?
FAVORITE: Valparaiso. Despite the loss of the star power of Butler, there are still a couple of stacked teams in the Horizon in Valpo and Detroit, who both made my preseason list of Top 68 teams (at #36 and #46, respectively). Although neither is in the at-large conversation anymore, both have enough ability to pull off a first round upset in the NCAA Tournament.
SLEEPER: UW-Green Bay. The Phoenix (lol) have non-conference wins over NDSU and Marquette, two of just four wins this conference managed against Kenpom Top 100 teams this year (none of which came from Valpo or Detroit, it's worth noting). They probably aren't a major threat this year but UWGB is a really young team with only one senior, so expect the Phoenix to rise to the top of the standings in the next year or two. You like that? Expect the Phoenix to rise? God I'm Rick Reilly.
W's PICK: Valparaiso. It actually pains me a little to pick against Detroit and Ray McCallum who will be in the NBA someday and is super awesome, but Valpo is stacked. Their trio of Bobby Capobianco (formerly of Indiana), Ryan Broekhoff, and Kevin van Wijk give them a combination of size, ability, and experience that few mid-majors can match. Assuming they can get somebody - anybody - to give them capable guard play and this is a dangerous March team.
Last night in college basketball nothing really interesting happened. Louisville crushed Cincinnati, which was supposed to happen, and Kansas super-crushed Texas Tech, which was definitely supposed to happen. This helps Kansas creep closer to a one seed as well as putting more pressure on Cincy who was looking like a definite NCAA team earlier this year but has sputtered lately. As long as they don't blow their last game against South Florida they should still be ok, but they've lost four of their last five and six of their last eight, so there's definitely some pressure involved in that last game.
The biggest bubble news of the night was Baylor's loss at Texas, which pretty much ends the Bears hope for an at-large. Has anybody ever done less with more than Scott Drew? Well I guess that's a little rough considering he has two Elite Eights since 2010, but those teams seemed to succeed in spite of Drew, not because of him. Right?
As far as bubble action tonight Arkansas is probably in the biggest must win situation here (@ Missouri) with a too high RPI and this being a big chance to get a signature win to help bring that down, although Boise State could really, really use a win at UNLV. Notre Dame is probably already in but it would behoove them to not lose at home to St. John's. Illinois probably puts themselves solidly in if they win at Iowa, while a loss isn't a killer, while Memphis faces a similar game at UTEP but a loss would hurt the Tigers quite a bit more. Lastly, we have a true elimination game with Alabama @ Ole Miss. It's very possible neither team gets in, but the winner definitely won't (barring an SEC Tournament title). Fun time of year, especially when I'm not worried about the Gophers every single day. Neat.
Monday, January 28, 2013
Week in Review - 1/28/2013
There isn't much here about the Gophers so if that's what you're looking for go look somewhere else (although I do bitch about Rodney Williams later). Losing to a mediocre Badger team at Kohl Center doesn't really tell me much, other than reconfirming once again that this Gopher team isn't "elite", but this loss does nothing for me in terms of if this team is "pretty good" or "frustratingly mediocre as usual." And nothing good can possibly happen next week (home games vs. Nebraska and Iowa) only disastrously bad things can happen outside of expected results, so we won't really know anything until the go to East Lansing and then have Illinois at home the following week. It's a frustrating time to be a fan. But what would life as a Gopher fan be without the frustration? We're all such idiots.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Miami Hurricanes. Hey bromigos, there have been some great wins by teams this year but it's going to be tough for anybody to top Miami beating #1 Duke by 27 (and yes I know Duke didn't have Ryan Kelly because everyone keeps pointing out how Duke didn't have Ryan Kelly but can everyone just calm down about that for a minute because we're talking about Ryan freaking Kelly here). I mean they just killed them. At the ten minute mark of the first half Duke was up 14-13, which means Miami beat them 77-59 over the final 30 minutes. This wasn't a fluke (don't forget Miami beat Michigan State earlier this year too) and Miami is now 6-0 in the conference and looking like a good bet to win the ACC for what I assume is the first time ever. Best part of that game was Seth Curry shooting 0-10 from the floor, because I still can't shake my irrational hatred of Stephen Curry so naturally that carries over to Seth because you know, brothers and stuff.
2. Kobe Bryant. I think I mentioned this last week but I recently traded for Kobe in my fantasy league which of course means I no longer hate him and kind of like him now, so I fee like it's worth noting that in his last two games he's had 14 assists. Not total, although frankly that would be kind of impressive for this black hole, but in each of the last two he's had 14 in each. I mean, say what you want but 14 assists in a game is a freaking lot, and he's now done it two games in a row. You know many players have ever had at least 14 assists in back-to-back games? I don't know either, probably kind of a lot, actually, but for a me first glory boy hero ball gunslinging chucker like Kobe to do it must have been very difficult for him mentally. And, the Lakers, are 2-0 in those games, which just goes to show you that when you have two maybe three other Hall of Famers on your team it does wonders for your squad's chances if you actually let them touch the ball and shoot and stuff. Like I've always said.
3. Baylor Bears. There's a reason why Baylor was highly ranked by many including myself this year, and that's because even with Perry Jones, Quincy Acy, and Quincy Miller off to the NBA the machine Scott Drew has put in place still meant they were going to be immensely talented. Sometimes they can put a game together like Monday against Oklahoma State, and even if the final margin was only 10 the game was never really in doubt. Their back court (Pierre Jackson, Brady Heslip, A.J. Walton) is both experienced and talented, while the front court (Isaiah Austin, Cory Jefferson) is probably the most athletic in the country with Jefferson the total freak and Austin the unstoppable freshman who can dominate inside or hit the three and already has a turnaround fadeway jumper which truly a thing to behold from a 7-1 dude with a wingspan beyond that (kind of like KG but slightly more awkward). Then on the bench you have Gary Franklin, Deuce Bello, and Rico Gathers who would all start for most teams. That's why they handled Oklahoma State, won at Rupp against Kentucky, and stomped BYU this year. Of course they're also a dumb team, so they've lost at Northwestern and dropped one at home to Charleston. I'm telling you right now, bros - Baylor is ripe for a first round upset this year in the tournament.
4. UCLA Bruins. There is a reason I ranked UCLA the 6th best team in the NCAA going into this season and they were ranked 13th in the preseason polls - there is a lot of freaking talent here. Early season struggles (one point home OT win over UC-Irvine, home loss to Cal Poly) dropped them out of the rankings and out of everyone's hearts and minds, but as things have come together they reeled off 10 straight wins before dropping a game last week to a good Oregon team, and now went into Tucson and knocked off 6th rated Arizona. The early season issues shouldn't have been a surprise since the team is mostly made up of freshmen (Shabazz Muhammed, Jordan Adams, Kyle Anderson) and transfers (the Wear twins, Larry Drew), but now everything is looking good (they smoked Arizona) and Muhammed is starting to look like he could do the Carmelo Anthony thing and carry this team in March. Of course, being a Ben Howland coached team they then went out an invalidated everything I just wrote by losing at Arizona State on Saturday, but I stand by this team anyway. Kinda sorta.
WHO SUCKED
1. Rodney Williams. No, I'm not the idiot who is going to call Williams out for missing the tying free throw because the odds of him hitting two free throws in any situation are pretty long any way and even as a senior he's a kid who isn't a good shooter and who has been in very few high leverage situations like it - it was basically a given he wasn't going to make them both, particularly on the road. No, I'm going to call out Williams because who in the baby jesus of the earth convinced him he's a jump shooter? He's not a jump shooter. He's a freak athlete who needs to get his ass in the paint because his jump shot resembles that of a high school wrestler. I don't even want him taking open jumpers, let alone the nearly constant shit he's been jacking up the last two games which consists of him stopping the ball, making a jab step or two that doesn't really move the defender, and then rising up and clanging a jumper off some slight part of the rim like he plays for the god damn Illini. Just because you have the ability to get your shot off whenever you want doesn't mean you should. To paraphrase Dr. Ian Malcolm, "You were so preoccupied with whether or not you could, you didn't stop to think if you should." Actually we should probably have Rodney sit down and watch Jurassic Park - the whole thing is a metaphor for his jump shot. Or something like that.
2. Kentucky Wildcats. Like when I wrote about the Lakers last week I'm not exactly breaking news here that Kentucky is struggling, but after watching them lose at Alabama it really reminded me that John Calipari is really not a good game coach, despite winning the title last year. The talent Kentucky has this year is nearly as good as anything else Calipari has had in his career, but when your offensive game plan generally consists of just rolling the ball out every game, that talent also has to be smart - you need coach on the floor types to keep things moving in the right direction. His best teams at Memphis had guys like Chris Douglas-Roberts and Derrick Rose, last year's champions had Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, and even back in the UMass days he had an incredible guard tandem in Carmelo Travieso and Edgar Padilla (I can't believe I didn't have to look those names up). Without a "smart" player to direct the team, a coach who is an A+ recruiter and a D+ game coach, and a small talent dip from last year this Kentucky team is going nowhere this year. Of course, next year they're probably going undefeated, so enjoy this now.
3. Arizona Diamondbacks. The D-Backs have a solid core and should be a good team again this year, but they've taken the "get rid of the guys the manager doesn't like" philosophy the Twins like so much to a whole different extreme. Earlier this offseason they unloaded super prospect Trevor Bauer because he wouldn't adapt the workout schedule he's done his entire life to match what the D-Backs wanted and received a prospect in return whose upside is "great glove, no hit" and now they've shipped off Justin Upton because he and manager Kirk Gibson apparently don't get along. Before trading Upton, however, they managed to kill all their leverage by making it clear they wanted him gone. Actually first they got a pretty good haul from Seattle, but Upton has a limited no-trade clause and killed that so, desperate to have him gone, they sent him off to Atlanta for one year of a so-so third baseman (Martin Prado) who wants in the neighborhood of $12 million a year starting next season, a likely fifth starter someday (Randall Delgado), and three other minor leaguers of little consequence. All that for a 25-year old who in four full seasons has had two monster years and two lesser years, which were both above average, by the way. Just a silly way to do business. We're actually lucky to have Gardy. Ha ha just kidding. Throw in the D-Backs trade of Chris Young to Oakland for another no hit/good field shortstop in Cliff Pennington and this offseason has just been bizarre for Arizona.
4. Virginia Commonwealth Rams. What incredible timing for the Rams to implode considering I just pimped them last week as a Final Four sleeper. All they've done this week is have a seven point lead with 42 seconds left vs. Richmond and blow the game and then lose at home to LaSalle. Now, neither Richmond or especially LaSalle are bad losses, but this isn't the way to prove me right and stuff. I still think they're a sleeper Final Four team what with their style of play since most teams don't ever go up against something like that, but both blowing a big lead against a mediocre opponent and losing a home game to another mediocre opponent kind of hurt the confidence level. Actually, maybe this helps since they'll end up with a worse seed and then I will be the only one to pick them to the Final Four and all that sweet sweet NCAA Tournament Pool money will be mine all mine! I'm a genius.
Lastly, the team in college basketball who hands down had the best week was Villanova. They beat both Louisville and Syracuse, giving wins over two top-5 teams in the same week which is pretty much like holy shit. The reasons I didn't list them in the "WHO WAS AWESOME" section are two-fold: 1) I hate them and 2) who gives a crap? Those are two great wins and yeah their RPI is creeping into the mid-50s so it's possible they could play themselves into an at-large, but they already have seven losses and even if most of them are excusable losing to Providence and especially Columbia is not. Also I don't even know if I can name a single player for Nova (is Jayvaughn Pinkston still there?) and I don't really feel like learning another team. So sorry.
Plus I heard Scottie Reynolds has an armpit fetish and cries when he watches Lion King.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Miami Hurricanes. Hey bromigos, there have been some great wins by teams this year but it's going to be tough for anybody to top Miami beating #1 Duke by 27 (and yes I know Duke didn't have Ryan Kelly because everyone keeps pointing out how Duke didn't have Ryan Kelly but can everyone just calm down about that for a minute because we're talking about Ryan freaking Kelly here). I mean they just killed them. At the ten minute mark of the first half Duke was up 14-13, which means Miami beat them 77-59 over the final 30 minutes. This wasn't a fluke (don't forget Miami beat Michigan State earlier this year too) and Miami is now 6-0 in the conference and looking like a good bet to win the ACC for what I assume is the first time ever. Best part of that game was Seth Curry shooting 0-10 from the floor, because I still can't shake my irrational hatred of Stephen Curry so naturally that carries over to Seth because you know, brothers and stuff.
2. Kobe Bryant. I think I mentioned this last week but I recently traded for Kobe in my fantasy league which of course means I no longer hate him and kind of like him now, so I fee like it's worth noting that in his last two games he's had 14 assists. Not total, although frankly that would be kind of impressive for this black hole, but in each of the last two he's had 14 in each. I mean, say what you want but 14 assists in a game is a freaking lot, and he's now done it two games in a row. You know many players have ever had at least 14 assists in back-to-back games? I don't know either, probably kind of a lot, actually, but for a me first glory boy hero ball gunslinging chucker like Kobe to do it must have been very difficult for him mentally. And, the Lakers, are 2-0 in those games, which just goes to show you that when you have two maybe three other Hall of Famers on your team it does wonders for your squad's chances if you actually let them touch the ball and shoot and stuff. Like I've always said.
3. Baylor Bears. There's a reason why Baylor was highly ranked by many including myself this year, and that's because even with Perry Jones, Quincy Acy, and Quincy Miller off to the NBA the machine Scott Drew has put in place still meant they were going to be immensely talented. Sometimes they can put a game together like Monday against Oklahoma State, and even if the final margin was only 10 the game was never really in doubt. Their back court (Pierre Jackson, Brady Heslip, A.J. Walton) is both experienced and talented, while the front court (Isaiah Austin, Cory Jefferson) is probably the most athletic in the country with Jefferson the total freak and Austin the unstoppable freshman who can dominate inside or hit the three and already has a turnaround fadeway jumper which truly a thing to behold from a 7-1 dude with a wingspan beyond that (kind of like KG but slightly more awkward). Then on the bench you have Gary Franklin, Deuce Bello, and Rico Gathers who would all start for most teams. That's why they handled Oklahoma State, won at Rupp against Kentucky, and stomped BYU this year. Of course they're also a dumb team, so they've lost at Northwestern and dropped one at home to Charleston. I'm telling you right now, bros - Baylor is ripe for a first round upset this year in the tournament.
4. UCLA Bruins. There is a reason I ranked UCLA the 6th best team in the NCAA going into this season and they were ranked 13th in the preseason polls - there is a lot of freaking talent here. Early season struggles (one point home OT win over UC-Irvine, home loss to Cal Poly) dropped them out of the rankings and out of everyone's hearts and minds, but as things have come together they reeled off 10 straight wins before dropping a game last week to a good Oregon team, and now went into Tucson and knocked off 6th rated Arizona. The early season issues shouldn't have been a surprise since the team is mostly made up of freshmen (Shabazz Muhammed, Jordan Adams, Kyle Anderson) and transfers (the Wear twins, Larry Drew), but now everything is looking good (they smoked Arizona) and Muhammed is starting to look like he could do the Carmelo Anthony thing and carry this team in March. Of course, being a Ben Howland coached team they then went out an invalidated everything I just wrote by losing at Arizona State on Saturday, but I stand by this team anyway. Kinda sorta.
WHO SUCKED
1. Rodney Williams. No, I'm not the idiot who is going to call Williams out for missing the tying free throw because the odds of him hitting two free throws in any situation are pretty long any way and even as a senior he's a kid who isn't a good shooter and who has been in very few high leverage situations like it - it was basically a given he wasn't going to make them both, particularly on the road. No, I'm going to call out Williams because who in the baby jesus of the earth convinced him he's a jump shooter? He's not a jump shooter. He's a freak athlete who needs to get his ass in the paint because his jump shot resembles that of a high school wrestler. I don't even want him taking open jumpers, let alone the nearly constant shit he's been jacking up the last two games which consists of him stopping the ball, making a jab step or two that doesn't really move the defender, and then rising up and clanging a jumper off some slight part of the rim like he plays for the god damn Illini. Just because you have the ability to get your shot off whenever you want doesn't mean you should. To paraphrase Dr. Ian Malcolm, "You were so preoccupied with whether or not you could, you didn't stop to think if you should." Actually we should probably have Rodney sit down and watch Jurassic Park - the whole thing is a metaphor for his jump shot. Or something like that.
2. Kentucky Wildcats. Like when I wrote about the Lakers last week I'm not exactly breaking news here that Kentucky is struggling, but after watching them lose at Alabama it really reminded me that John Calipari is really not a good game coach, despite winning the title last year. The talent Kentucky has this year is nearly as good as anything else Calipari has had in his career, but when your offensive game plan generally consists of just rolling the ball out every game, that talent also has to be smart - you need coach on the floor types to keep things moving in the right direction. His best teams at Memphis had guys like Chris Douglas-Roberts and Derrick Rose, last year's champions had Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, and even back in the UMass days he had an incredible guard tandem in Carmelo Travieso and Edgar Padilla (I can't believe I didn't have to look those names up). Without a "smart" player to direct the team, a coach who is an A+ recruiter and a D+ game coach, and a small talent dip from last year this Kentucky team is going nowhere this year. Of course, next year they're probably going undefeated, so enjoy this now.
3. Arizona Diamondbacks. The D-Backs have a solid core and should be a good team again this year, but they've taken the "get rid of the guys the manager doesn't like" philosophy the Twins like so much to a whole different extreme. Earlier this offseason they unloaded super prospect Trevor Bauer because he wouldn't adapt the workout schedule he's done his entire life to match what the D-Backs wanted and received a prospect in return whose upside is "great glove, no hit" and now they've shipped off Justin Upton because he and manager Kirk Gibson apparently don't get along. Before trading Upton, however, they managed to kill all their leverage by making it clear they wanted him gone. Actually first they got a pretty good haul from Seattle, but Upton has a limited no-trade clause and killed that so, desperate to have him gone, they sent him off to Atlanta for one year of a so-so third baseman (Martin Prado) who wants in the neighborhood of $12 million a year starting next season, a likely fifth starter someday (Randall Delgado), and three other minor leaguers of little consequence. All that for a 25-year old who in four full seasons has had two monster years and two lesser years, which were both above average, by the way. Just a silly way to do business. We're actually lucky to have Gardy. Ha ha just kidding. Throw in the D-Backs trade of Chris Young to Oakland for another no hit/good field shortstop in Cliff Pennington and this offseason has just been bizarre for Arizona.
4. Virginia Commonwealth Rams. What incredible timing for the Rams to implode considering I just pimped them last week as a Final Four sleeper. All they've done this week is have a seven point lead with 42 seconds left vs. Richmond and blow the game and then lose at home to LaSalle. Now, neither Richmond or especially LaSalle are bad losses, but this isn't the way to prove me right and stuff. I still think they're a sleeper Final Four team what with their style of play since most teams don't ever go up against something like that, but both blowing a big lead against a mediocre opponent and losing a home game to another mediocre opponent kind of hurt the confidence level. Actually, maybe this helps since they'll end up with a worse seed and then I will be the only one to pick them to the Final Four and all that sweet sweet NCAA Tournament Pool money will be mine all mine! I'm a genius.
Lastly, the team in college basketball who hands down had the best week was Villanova. They beat both Louisville and Syracuse, giving wins over two top-5 teams in the same week which is pretty much like holy shit. The reasons I didn't list them in the "WHO WAS AWESOME" section are two-fold: 1) I hate them and 2) who gives a crap? Those are two great wins and yeah their RPI is creeping into the mid-50s so it's possible they could play themselves into an at-large, but they already have seven losses and even if most of them are excusable losing to Providence and especially Columbia is not. Also I don't even know if I can name a single player for Nova (is Jayvaughn Pinkston still there?) and I don't really feel like learning another team. So sorry.
Plus I heard Scottie Reynolds has an armpit fetish and cries when he watches Lion King.
Monday, November 5, 2012
DWG College Hoops Preview: Teams #18-#12
I wasn't able to go to the Gopher game tonight, so instead here are a
few more NCAA Hoop Previews (we're almost done!). But first, a quick
check on the Big 10 teams and how they've done in the exhibitions that
have been played so far.
Illinois 79-47 over Lewis and 75-66 over West Chester. The Illini had 21 turnovers vs. just 7 assists against West Chester. Safe to say their issues with ball-handling haven't been resolved just yet.
Indiana 86-57 over Wesleyan. Maurice Creek led the Hoosiers in scoring with 12. I would have sworn that dude had graduated already.
Iowa 100-54 over Quincy. Hawks forced 31 turnovers in this game, and based on possessions in the game it looks like Iowa might be converted over to a run-and-gun, press the whole game type of team. Tom Davis would be proud.
Michigan 83-47 over Northern Michigan. Trey Burke was suspended for this one which clearly didn't matter. Two of the three vaunted freshmen hit double figures. Tim Hardaway had 5 assists and zero turnovers. Luckily he still shoots like shit.
Michigan State 85-47 over Northwood and 62-49 over St. Cloud State. Derrick Nix looking like he's come to play this year with a 13 & 8 and 14 & 7 in these two. Then again, I doubt teams of that caliber have anyone who can handle someone as wide as Nix in the paint.
Nebraska: yet to play. They can't even figure out scheduling properly.
Northwestern: yet to play. You'll never make the NCAA Tournament this way.
Ohio State 83-71 over Walsh. DeShaun Thomas scored 25 and got up 17 shots with nobody else on OSU putting up more than 9. The man is just a scoring machine. Breathtaking.
Penn State 79-54 over Philadelphia. D.J. Newbill, a transfer from Southern Miss, scored 15 them and Tim Frazier scored 17 with 8 assists. Frazier is insane. How he can put up the kind of numbers he did last year with no help is baffling.
Purdue 70-61 over Montevallo and 109-68 over Newberry. They have three guys named Johnson (Ronnie, Terone, and Anthony) who were the three leading scorers against Montevallo. That's hilarious.
Wisconsin: yet to play. Slackers.
Anyway, on with it. And don't forget to check out the post directly below this one for TRE's Western Conference Preview which I totally just stepped all over.
18. Creighton Blue Jays. You're going to hear a sickening amount about Creighton this year, and not without reason, but you know how much ESPN loves their little teams that could and Creighton is the top qualifier this year (since Gonzaga and Memphis have done it so long and no longer qualify - well maybe Gonzaga). This is a team that beat Alabama in the first round of the NCAA Tournament last season and has nine of its top ten guys back including Doug McDermott who is somehow a National Player of the Year candidate. The guy they lose is a big one in Antoine Young who has been their PG for three years, but he didn't even lead the team in assists last year so they'll probably be ok. The real problem is that schedule. They have a couple of so-so teams on there (North Texas, Cal, St. Joe's) but the only real team is Wisconsin and they just lost their PG for the season. So it's very likely they will enter the MVC schedule undefeated and should run through there with only 1-2 losses. Can you hear the media coverage already? Can't you already hear Dickie V screaming about McDermott and Creighton? Ugh. I'm sick of it already and it hasn't even started yet.
17. Kansas Jayhawks. These guys rank 7th in both polls so I might be underrating them, but losing both Tyshawn Taylor and Thomas Robinson is huge - that's 34 points, 14 boards, and 7 assists just gone. Then again, the year prior they lost the Morris twins and made the Championship Game, and the year before that they lost Sherron Collins (what happened to that guy?), Cole Aldrich, and Xavier Henry and still made the elite 8. So I guess, what, Kansas is kind of a basketball factory? Man, why am I always the last to know? You know they're going to be involved on some level because you know they're always going to play defense, and even more fun is that big dopey surfer dude, Jeff Withey, is back with his 3.6 blocks per game from last year. Man I love shotblockers. Remember Antoine Broxsie? God was I excited when he transferred to the Gophers. Whiffed on that one. He's the starting PF on my all-disappointing Gopher team (PG: Adam Boone, SG: Rico Tucker, SF: Rick Rickert , PF Broxsie, C Ralph Sampson, and Voshon Lenard's senior year should be on here somewhere too)
16. Arizona Wildcats. Arizona looks to be back, finally, and I for one am happy about it. To have the alma mater of Sean Elliott and Sean Rooks be a giant suckhole was not good for my brain, man, but they're back. A monster recruiting class (ranked #3 in the country by ESPN with four dudes in their top 100), a big-time transfer (Mark Lyons from Xavier who averaged 15 points and 3 assists per game last year and is immediately eligible thanks to that post-graduate rule that everyone who has ever used has been doing in order to further their academic career), and a couple of studs in waiting back will have Arizona back in the NCAA Tournament after their streak of I don't know like 25 years in a row or something ended last season. FUN FACT: Lyons was recruited to Xavier by then head coach Sean Miller. Sean Miller is now Arizona's coach. Good thing Arizona offered a post-grad degree Lyons was after that Xavier didn't. What a happy coincidence.
15. Gonzaga Bulldogs. I've come way around on the Bulldogs. When they started winning a bunch of games I initially hated them the same way I currently hate Davidson - an annoying little brother winning a few too many games after hitting a lucky streak that the national media wants to make out with at all times - but now I've decided I'm a big fan. You can't have this run of success by accident, and it's impressive how they've managed to keep it going and, stop me if you've heard this before, this season might be their best. As per usual they're loaded in the back court with Kevin Pangos and Gary Bell, and these guys are just sophomores so you can expect them to be good for at least another few seasons, and Elias Harris is back and was good again last year so there's no reason to think he won't jump up another level in his final college year. The key to this team's success may end up being center Sam Dower, a junior from Osseo (yes, Osseo, MN) who apparently the Gophers didn't need. He's had a couple of nice seasons as a back-up and with Robert Sacre gone he's primed for a breakout year. Gonzaga highlights on SportsCenter are literally going to kill me this year. Yes, I said literally.
14. North Carolina Tar Heels. Normally a team starting two freshmen and two guys coming back off knee surgery would be cause for concern, but you know the deal once you start getting to this caliber of team - these aren't exactly mediocre talents. James McAdoo, who for some reason is always called James Michael McAdoo which I am not going to do because it's annoying, could have been a Top 10 NBA pick last season if he had left despite playing just 15 minutes per game with UNC because apparently nobody remembers Marvin Williams, but he chose to stay and is immediately one of the favorites for ACC Player of the Year. Seriously these guys will be fine. The back-ups who played 10 minutes per game last year were all like, Top 50 recruits who were just biding their time, and they bring in the 8th ranked recruiting class which included stealing two guys (Marcus Paige from Iowa, J.P. Tokoto from Wisconsin) out of the midwest so seriously F these guys. The only reason not to completely hate Carolina is because at least they aren't Duke.
13. Memphis Tigers. Guess which team hasn't won an NCAA Tournament game the last three years (no not the Gophers I mean a team that's supposed to win those games)? Well obviously it's Memphis otherwise why would I bring it up? That will have to change if Sam Weir look-a-like Josh Pastner wants to stay comfortable as Memphis jumps to the Big East next season, because this Memphis team is finally loaded the way those all Caliparian teams were. They've got a very talented back court including former McDonald's All-American Shoeless Joe Jackson, Adonis Thomas (another former McD's AA who was hurt the majority of last season) is also back and healthy, and in the paint they grabbed another McD's AA in Shaq Thomas. So yeah, I'd say Pastner's recruiting has finally caught up to what Calipari was doing when he was at Memphis. Expect sanctions any day.
12. Baylor Bears. It's pretty incredible that Baylor can lose Perry Jones, Quincy Acy, and Quincy Miller all to the NBA and still have a shot at being a top 10 team this year, but Baylor has turned into a pretty incredible program. Pierre Jackson is back to run the show after being named Honorable Mention All-American last season and was tabbed as the Big 12 Preseason Player of the Year, and his back court mate Brady Heslip is back as well to knock down a billion threes. Add in Deuce Bello, A.J. Walton, and Gary Franklin and it's safe to say there are no questions about Baylor's guard play. Losing the entire front court could hurt, but Baylor could easily go three guards and there's plenty of incoming talent as well. Particularly Isaiah Austin who is the best incoming center in the country and a top-5 overall recruit - the kind of guy lesser schools would call a "program changer" but just business as usual at Baylor. Plus J'mison Morgan is somehow still around. I swear that dude is older than Mbakwe.
Previous:
Teams #68-60
Teams #59-53
Teams #52-47
Teams #46-39
Teams #38-34
Teams #33-26
Teams #25-20
Team #19 (GOPHERS)
Illinois 79-47 over Lewis and 75-66 over West Chester. The Illini had 21 turnovers vs. just 7 assists against West Chester. Safe to say their issues with ball-handling haven't been resolved just yet.
Indiana 86-57 over Wesleyan. Maurice Creek led the Hoosiers in scoring with 12. I would have sworn that dude had graduated already.
Iowa 100-54 over Quincy. Hawks forced 31 turnovers in this game, and based on possessions in the game it looks like Iowa might be converted over to a run-and-gun, press the whole game type of team. Tom Davis would be proud.
Michigan 83-47 over Northern Michigan. Trey Burke was suspended for this one which clearly didn't matter. Two of the three vaunted freshmen hit double figures. Tim Hardaway had 5 assists and zero turnovers. Luckily he still shoots like shit.
Michigan State 85-47 over Northwood and 62-49 over St. Cloud State. Derrick Nix looking like he's come to play this year with a 13 & 8 and 14 & 7 in these two. Then again, I doubt teams of that caliber have anyone who can handle someone as wide as Nix in the paint.
Nebraska: yet to play. They can't even figure out scheduling properly.
Northwestern: yet to play. You'll never make the NCAA Tournament this way.
Ohio State 83-71 over Walsh. DeShaun Thomas scored 25 and got up 17 shots with nobody else on OSU putting up more than 9. The man is just a scoring machine. Breathtaking.
Penn State 79-54 over Philadelphia. D.J. Newbill, a transfer from Southern Miss, scored 15 them and Tim Frazier scored 17 with 8 assists. Frazier is insane. How he can put up the kind of numbers he did last year with no help is baffling.
Purdue 70-61 over Montevallo and 109-68 over Newberry. They have three guys named Johnson (Ronnie, Terone, and Anthony) who were the three leading scorers against Montevallo. That's hilarious.
Wisconsin: yet to play. Slackers.
Anyway, on with it. And don't forget to check out the post directly below this one for TRE's Western Conference Preview which I totally just stepped all over.
Previous:
Teams #68-60
Teams #59-53
Teams #52-47
Teams #46-39
Teams #38-34
Teams #33-26
Teams #25-20
Team #19 (GOPHERS)
Sunday, February 12, 2012
Week in Review - 2/13/2011
There are no word about the Gophers, or at least nothing more than a throwaway line here and there, in the below post. Mainly because they didn't play this weekend. I ripped off about 1,200 words after the loss to the dirty dirtball Sconnies, and I don't really feel the need to do it again when nothing has changed. Plus there was only one comment left after that post where I poured out my heart and thoughts and so you asshole don't deserve any more. You're lucky I post at all.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Kentucky Wildcats. I'm now starting to think that worrying about Kentucky being a young team and/or having a less than elite in-game coach doesn't really matter because good god thee guys are just not fair. What did Kentucky do this week? Well, they demolished their top contender in the conference by 20 (Florida, more on them later) and then went into Vandy, a pretty tough place to play, and beat the Commodore, probably the third best team in the conference. They've got unstoppable inside scorers (Anthony Davis, Terrence Jones), three-point shooters (Doron Lamb, Darius Miller), slashers (Jones, Michael Gilchrist), shot blockers (Davis, Jones), and lock down perimeter defenders (Miller, Gilchrist). Their "weak link" is point guard Marquis Teague, and he'd be the best player on 90% of college teams. Just sick. I have no idea how they're going to lose in March.
2. Austin Rivers. He's still got too much of a tendency to go one man show, and when he has the ball on the break you know he's taking the shot 80% of the time, but holy crap was Rivers awesome against North Carolina. 29 points with 6 three-pointers and everyone was big, including the game winner right in Tyler Zeller's stupid face. Reading what some fans of both teams have written and this might be the "best" win by Duke in this rivalry, coming at Chapel Hill versus one of UNC's most talented squads, at least in recent memory. And they basically did it because Austin Rivers' decided to breakout. I think going pro after this season will be best for everyone involved because Rivers game is an NBA game and he's struggled trying to adjust playing within the constraints of a tight system rather than, "go get 40 Austin", but man, he is the real deal.
3. Wichita State Shockers. I don't usually like to talk about the Missouri Valley on account of it sucks so bad, but Wichita's win over Creighton this weekend was truly a thing of beauty. See, at the beginning of the year Wichita was supposed to be this year's MVC darling, a team with a shot to knock off some good squads, have a successful conference season, and roll to an easy at-large bid with a chance to make some noise. Then they lost to both Alabama and Temple in Puerto Rico and everybody was like, meh, while Creighton raced out to a 21-2 start and has everyone's darling Doug McDermott and was like Lindsay Lohan stealing everything Rachel McAdams had. But then Wichita went to Creighton and completely destroyed the Blue Jays and no Creighton has lost three straight while Wichita can put this win with their win over UNLV and good computer numbers and are probably more likely to make it at-large than Creighton. So suck on that, Lohan.
4. St. Louis Billikens. I'm guessing reading about St. Louis doesn't exactly rank in the top 5 of anybody's favorite things to do list, but it' rare you see a team take care of business like they have and have jumped from the lower-mid bubble to near the top of it. The Billikens won on the road this week at both St. Joe's and LaSalle, two teams in contention for the Atlantic 10 crown, and now sit at 8-3, just a half game behind Temple, and that followed up a week where they beat St. Bonaventure and Dayton, two other teams towards the top of the A-10. Their non-conference strength of schedule is awful (213 in the country) but they do have win over Washington, Oklahoma, Boston College, and Villanova - not exactly the 1927 Yankees but a better lineup than the Gophers' can show. And they're trending up. Fully expect Majerus to finally be back in the big dance.
5. Cal Bears. Ye, the Pac-10 is still horrible and yes, there's a good chance it's a one bid conference, but that's exactly what makes a team actually going out and doing something worthwhile notable because nobody ever does it in this league. The Bears went on their road trip through Southern California and won at both USC and UCLA (their RPIs are 228 and 121, but remember it's the Pac-10 so we're on a different curve here). This now brings them to 10-3 and 20-6 overall, and at least getting near the middle of the bubble. Oh, and in case you're wondering Justin Cobbs had 28 point and 10 assists in those two wins. (Also noteworthy: Oregon also was 2-0 this week. Devoe had 29 points and 7 assists.) It's so funny I'm going to stab myself in the ankle with the bayonet I have sitting next to the couch.
WHO SUCKED
1. Florida Gators. Bit of a rough one for the Gators and those who at one point listed the Gators as a sleeper Final Four team. First, on Tuesday, the had a big chance to make a statement going into Lexington to play the #1 Kentucky Wildcats and walked out 20-point losers, and then on Saturday they took a home gimme win vs. Tennessee and somehow ended up losing by five. Actually I shouldn't say somehow, because it's pretty obvious than when a team is as dependent on the three-pointer the way Florida is (6th in the country in % of points coming from behind the line) when the shots aren't falling they're screwed. The Gators 17-56 from behind the arc in those two games, significantly worse than their season mark of nearly 40%. And a special shout-out to Erving Walker and Bradley Beal, who, along with Kenny Boynton, are basically the entire team and were 1-11 from 3 against Kentucky and 2-11 against Tennessee. That reliance on the three makes them both a threat to make a run in March and an early upset candidate. Guess I'm going to have to guess right.
2. William Buford. Buford actually had a pretty good game earlier in the week against Purdue (29 points on 10-17 shooting) which hurt the narrative a bit but he's been absolutely awful lately other than that game, and saved one of his worst for their big loss against Sparty, shooting 2-12 with 3 turnover (to 1 assist) for a grand total of 4 points. Looking back, outside of that game against Purdue the last time Buford shot 50% or better in a game was the first game of 2012, and he's shot 29-104 in those games, and has had 29 turnover versus 21 assists. Ohio State is really good and are absolutely a title contender, but if Buford doesn't get it figured out there's no way they're getting past the sweet 16.
3. Baylor Bears. I still like these guys a lot, but after they lost to both Kansas (at home) and Missouri (on the road) this week it might be time to take a harder look. Because they've now been swept by both those teams, and considering there are only three really good teams in the Big 12 (with apologies to Iowa State) that means that Baylor hasn't had a good win in quite some time. There's no doubt they're still a very good team with the resume to prove it (wins over Kansas State, Miss State, West Virginia, St. Mary's, BYU, and San Diego State), but there are alarm bells ringing all over the place after those two sweeps. Worth noting that Perry Jones scored 5 points against Kansas on 1-8 shooting and 4 points on 2-12 shooting against Missouri, which means he's only broken double digit scoring once in four game against these two teams. I'm going to go ahead and not do anymore research and just assume he's a choker in big games. Join me, won't you?
4. The Grammys. I'm thrilled they chose to award the Foo Fighters with basically every award they were up for, but I can't forgive them for slighting Wiz Khalifa for best rap performance and song. You're seriously going to give the Grammy to Jay-Z and "Mail it in" Kanye for Otis over the masterpiece Black & Yellow from Wiz and give the other one to some collaboration with like six singer/rappers? Joke. I suppose I should just be happy it was nominated, but it should have won, but the politics of not giving a grammy to such a power collaboration probably made this inevitable. The grammys used to mean something and be about the music but, much like when they stopped eating the groundhog in Punxatawney, we live in a sissified society. Shame. Check it:
5. Murray State and Harvard. I'm going to lump these two schools together because they both have an outside chance at an at-large berth, both stumbled this weekend (Murray lost to Tennessee State or Tech I'm not sure but I'm not looking it up and Harvard lost to Princeton), and both should probably do everything they can to win their league. Harvard still looks pretty good with only one Ivy loss, and now that I look apparently Murray State is a lock to get an at-large according to ESPN so maybe I'm stupid. I'm sorry, but how exactly are they a lock? Even at 21-1 their RPI is 57 (Gophers are 54, FYI), Strength of schedule is 292, and non-conference strength of schedule is 132. They only have four wins over the RPI top 150, and the two best are over Memphis and Southern Miss whose RPIs are top 25 but everyone know they suck. One more conference loss and I say ship 'em to the NIT. Plus maybe then I'll get to see them live at Williams' Arena, score!
Oh, and in case you're wondering if you missed him, no, I didn't write about Jeremy Lin because oh my god will you people shut up.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Kentucky Wildcats. I'm now starting to think that worrying about Kentucky being a young team and/or having a less than elite in-game coach doesn't really matter because good god thee guys are just not fair. What did Kentucky do this week? Well, they demolished their top contender in the conference by 20 (Florida, more on them later) and then went into Vandy, a pretty tough place to play, and beat the Commodore, probably the third best team in the conference. They've got unstoppable inside scorers (Anthony Davis, Terrence Jones), three-point shooters (Doron Lamb, Darius Miller), slashers (Jones, Michael Gilchrist), shot blockers (Davis, Jones), and lock down perimeter defenders (Miller, Gilchrist). Their "weak link" is point guard Marquis Teague, and he'd be the best player on 90% of college teams. Just sick. I have no idea how they're going to lose in March.
2. Austin Rivers. He's still got too much of a tendency to go one man show, and when he has the ball on the break you know he's taking the shot 80% of the time, but holy crap was Rivers awesome against North Carolina. 29 points with 6 three-pointers and everyone was big, including the game winner right in Tyler Zeller's stupid face. Reading what some fans of both teams have written and this might be the "best" win by Duke in this rivalry, coming at Chapel Hill versus one of UNC's most talented squads, at least in recent memory. And they basically did it because Austin Rivers' decided to breakout. I think going pro after this season will be best for everyone involved because Rivers game is an NBA game and he's struggled trying to adjust playing within the constraints of a tight system rather than, "go get 40 Austin", but man, he is the real deal.
3. Wichita State Shockers. I don't usually like to talk about the Missouri Valley on account of it sucks so bad, but Wichita's win over Creighton this weekend was truly a thing of beauty. See, at the beginning of the year Wichita was supposed to be this year's MVC darling, a team with a shot to knock off some good squads, have a successful conference season, and roll to an easy at-large bid with a chance to make some noise. Then they lost to both Alabama and Temple in Puerto Rico and everybody was like, meh, while Creighton raced out to a 21-2 start and has everyone's darling Doug McDermott and was like Lindsay Lohan stealing everything Rachel McAdams had. But then Wichita went to Creighton and completely destroyed the Blue Jays and no Creighton has lost three straight while Wichita can put this win with their win over UNLV and good computer numbers and are probably more likely to make it at-large than Creighton. So suck on that, Lohan.
4. St. Louis Billikens. I'm guessing reading about St. Louis doesn't exactly rank in the top 5 of anybody's favorite things to do list, but it' rare you see a team take care of business like they have and have jumped from the lower-mid bubble to near the top of it. The Billikens won on the road this week at both St. Joe's and LaSalle, two teams in contention for the Atlantic 10 crown, and now sit at 8-3, just a half game behind Temple, and that followed up a week where they beat St. Bonaventure and Dayton, two other teams towards the top of the A-10. Their non-conference strength of schedule is awful (213 in the country) but they do have win over Washington, Oklahoma, Boston College, and Villanova - not exactly the 1927 Yankees but a better lineup than the Gophers' can show. And they're trending up. Fully expect Majerus to finally be back in the big dance.
5. Cal Bears. Ye, the Pac-10 is still horrible and yes, there's a good chance it's a one bid conference, but that's exactly what makes a team actually going out and doing something worthwhile notable because nobody ever does it in this league. The Bears went on their road trip through Southern California and won at both USC and UCLA (their RPIs are 228 and 121, but remember it's the Pac-10 so we're on a different curve here). This now brings them to 10-3 and 20-6 overall, and at least getting near the middle of the bubble. Oh, and in case you're wondering Justin Cobbs had 28 point and 10 assists in those two wins. (Also noteworthy: Oregon also was 2-0 this week. Devoe had 29 points and 7 assists.) It's so funny I'm going to stab myself in the ankle with the bayonet I have sitting next to the couch.
WHO SUCKED
1. Florida Gators. Bit of a rough one for the Gators and those who at one point listed the Gators as a sleeper Final Four team. First, on Tuesday, the had a big chance to make a statement going into Lexington to play the #1 Kentucky Wildcats and walked out 20-point losers, and then on Saturday they took a home gimme win vs. Tennessee and somehow ended up losing by five. Actually I shouldn't say somehow, because it's pretty obvious than when a team is as dependent on the three-pointer the way Florida is (6th in the country in % of points coming from behind the line) when the shots aren't falling they're screwed. The Gators 17-56 from behind the arc in those two games, significantly worse than their season mark of nearly 40%. And a special shout-out to Erving Walker and Bradley Beal, who, along with Kenny Boynton, are basically the entire team and were 1-11 from 3 against Kentucky and 2-11 against Tennessee. That reliance on the three makes them both a threat to make a run in March and an early upset candidate. Guess I'm going to have to guess right.
2. William Buford. Buford actually had a pretty good game earlier in the week against Purdue (29 points on 10-17 shooting) which hurt the narrative a bit but he's been absolutely awful lately other than that game, and saved one of his worst for their big loss against Sparty, shooting 2-12 with 3 turnover (to 1 assist) for a grand total of 4 points. Looking back, outside of that game against Purdue the last time Buford shot 50% or better in a game was the first game of 2012, and he's shot 29-104 in those games, and has had 29 turnover versus 21 assists. Ohio State is really good and are absolutely a title contender, but if Buford doesn't get it figured out there's no way they're getting past the sweet 16.
3. Baylor Bears. I still like these guys a lot, but after they lost to both Kansas (at home) and Missouri (on the road) this week it might be time to take a harder look. Because they've now been swept by both those teams, and considering there are only three really good teams in the Big 12 (with apologies to Iowa State) that means that Baylor hasn't had a good win in quite some time. There's no doubt they're still a very good team with the resume to prove it (wins over Kansas State, Miss State, West Virginia, St. Mary's, BYU, and San Diego State), but there are alarm bells ringing all over the place after those two sweeps. Worth noting that Perry Jones scored 5 points against Kansas on 1-8 shooting and 4 points on 2-12 shooting against Missouri, which means he's only broken double digit scoring once in four game against these two teams. I'm going to go ahead and not do anymore research and just assume he's a choker in big games. Join me, won't you?
4. The Grammys. I'm thrilled they chose to award the Foo Fighters with basically every award they were up for, but I can't forgive them for slighting Wiz Khalifa for best rap performance and song. You're seriously going to give the Grammy to Jay-Z and "Mail it in" Kanye for Otis over the masterpiece Black & Yellow from Wiz and give the other one to some collaboration with like six singer/rappers? Joke. I suppose I should just be happy it was nominated, but it should have won, but the politics of not giving a grammy to such a power collaboration probably made this inevitable. The grammys used to mean something and be about the music but, much like when they stopped eating the groundhog in Punxatawney, we live in a sissified society. Shame. Check it:
5. Murray State and Harvard. I'm going to lump these two schools together because they both have an outside chance at an at-large berth, both stumbled this weekend (Murray lost to Tennessee State or Tech I'm not sure but I'm not looking it up and Harvard lost to Princeton), and both should probably do everything they can to win their league. Harvard still looks pretty good with only one Ivy loss, and now that I look apparently Murray State is a lock to get an at-large according to ESPN so maybe I'm stupid. I'm sorry, but how exactly are they a lock? Even at 21-1 their RPI is 57 (Gophers are 54, FYI), Strength of schedule is 292, and non-conference strength of schedule is 132. They only have four wins over the RPI top 150, and the two best are over Memphis and Southern Miss whose RPIs are top 25 but everyone know they suck. One more conference loss and I say ship 'em to the NIT. Plus maybe then I'll get to see them live at Williams' Arena, score!
Oh, and in case you're wondering if you missed him, no, I didn't write about Jeremy Lin because oh my god will you people shut up.
Monday, February 6, 2012
My look at the Top 25 (part I - with bonus book review)
Ok I admit it - that Gopher loss to Iowa has completely drained me of my caringnessitude about this season. I'll be back if they beat Wisconsin, but right now I don't see anything in this team that makes me believe they're going to snag an NCAA bid, and that's the whole point of the season. That's why I took a nap on Sunday instead of watching them play Nebraska - I couldn't bear to watch another road implosion. Luckily and happily for me, they ended up winning which is good. Now it's time to play an extremely overrated Wisconsin team and if they can't win this one, that'll pretty much do it for the season. I may write a preview and I may not, but you know what you're getting from the Badgers anyway. Instead, I'm going to focus on the National Picture a bit, and give my thoughts on the Top 25. I did this last year and it was a big hit with me and I don't really care about anyone else. These are the rankings in the ESPN/USA today poll, not my personal rankings.
1. Kentucky Wildcats. I think there are four teams this year that are head and shoulders above everybody else in terms of pure talent (Kentucky, Missouri, Baylor, and UNC) but Kentucky is head and shoulders above the other three who are head and shoulders above the rest and they're playing up to their talent this year. Only loss is that 1-pointer at Indiana, and they've won 8 of their last 10 by at least double digits. You're always at risk in the tournament with a young team and a coach who is 95% recruiter/5% game coach, but Doron Lamb, Terrence Jones, and Darius Miller have been there before and can give you some leadership where Calipari fails. They also only go 6.5 deep even with all the blowouts so that's a concern (and I have no idea why Cal isn't giving more run to some other guys in these big wins to help hedge against possible foul trouble in a tournament game when you need someone to step in). Plenty of worries here, but I'm going to have an awfully hard time picking anybody else as my national champion come bracket fill-out time.
2. Syracuse Orange. I didn't list the Cuse as one of those top-4 talented teams this year but that's no slight to them because I think they do the best job of playing as an overall "team" (along with Mizzou). Now that the Fab Melo situation has been figured out they've got a rare mix of players where they can dominate you in the paint, on the perimeter, or slashing to the hole and with their athlete's this year Boeheim's zone might be one of his best ever. Opponent's do kill them on the offensive boards which can spell doom in a tight one, and I'm having trouble buying them completely because they lack any single win you can point to and say "holy shit Cuse is the goods", but they aren't 23-1 by accident. Probably the one top team where I'm just not quite sure what to think.
3. Ohio State Buckeyes. Ohio State is a team I think is flying a little bit under the radar right now, as much as that's possible for a team ranked third in the country. They beat Wisconsin this weekend in a slow-it-down, plodding game and just a couple of weeks ago beat Indiana in a more uptempo game. Their ability to win without having to dictate the pace of the game is a huge positive, not to mention that in William Buford and Jared Sullinger they have what might be the best inside-outside scoring duo in the country right now. They're a bit suspect from a big man stand point outside of Sullinger and, as usual, don't have much depth, but unless DeShaun Thomas shoots them right out of a game they have a great chance at another Final Four berth.
4. Missouri Tigers. One of the only teams I consider both supremely talented and supremely "team-y" for lack of a better term, Mizzou would be my clear pick to take the whole thing in March if it wasn't for damn Kentucky. The Tigers have a reputation as a high-scoring, fast-paced team and they are high-scoring, but they score a ton of points not because they play so fast (105th in the country in tempo) but because they're so efficient (#1 in offensive efficiency). Simply put, they make a lot of shots (#2 in the country in effective FG%) and they take a lot of shots because they rarely turn the ball over (#4 in the country) - thus they score a ton of points and force you to keep up. They have the best back court in the nation and although they look a little weak on the front line since they only really have one true forward in Ricardo Ratliffe, their win going into Baylor and taking on maybe the best front court in college tells me everything I know - it's either going to be Missouri or Kentucky cutting down the nets at the end.
5. North Carolina Tar Heels. Probably the second most talented team in the NCAA behind Kentucky, but they seem to missing every single intangible quality possible - nothing new for a Roy Williams led team. There's no leadership, no hustle, no killer instinct, and no drive. I know they only have three losses, but in two of those they were absolutely crushed (by UNLV and Florida State). And really, outside of the season opening win against Michigan State on a boat do they have a really good win? Wisconsin is overrated, Texas is terrible, and although Long Beach is a very good mid-major that's still all they are. I can't really guarantee an early exit because there is so much talent here, but Harrison Barnes, Kendall Marshall, and Tyler Zeller are all quite types who are looking for someone to follow - one of them needs to become THE guy or we're looking at a non-sweet 16 team here.
6. Baylor Bears. I have a feeling this is going to be the trendy pick for the Final Four (say they're a two seed) to come out of whatever region they end up in and it's tough to argue with - their two losses have been to Missouri and Kansas and that's it. One underrated aspect of Baylor is they are one of the best free throw shooting teams in the country at 74.2% (35th in the nation) and that's helped them win a lot of close ones (six wins over major conference foes of 5 pts or fewer) and could be a difference maker in March. The big worry is although Pierre Jackson has helped them out with the ball-handling this year Baylor is still one of the worst teams in the country in turning the ball over, and as we know one bad game and you're done.
7. Florida Gators. I still think Florida is a Final Four contender because they have such a good back court, but neither Patric Young nor Erik Murphy has become a consistent inside force and that's what they'll need to make a run because despite being perimeter oriented they aren't very good defensively. Erving Walker has settled down and become less chucker and more distributor and he's really allowed Boynton and Beal to flourish. I would love to see a Florida/Missouri match-up - the over/under would be about 170.
8. Murray State Racers. Please. They've played nobody, and I mean nobody. Their strength of schedule is 251, and non-conference it's 119. The only teams they've played that are "real" teams are Memphis (won by 4), Southern Miss (won in double OT), and Dayton (won by 17) and there's a good chance non of them make the NCAA Tournament, which would make Murray State 0-0 against NCAA Tournament teams. It's a cute team and a cute story, but not only have they not played anyone they aren't even beating the bad teams all that convincingly. They shoot over 40% from three so you can't completely write them off, but I have a pretty strong feeling they're a first game loss.
9. Duke Blue Devils. Same year same basic soft Duke team where all you really need is a strong inside dude who can push their finesse big guys around and some guards who can get said big man the ball as well as defend the three. It's why they lost to Florida State and why they lost to Miami on Sunday. Mike Kryzkyzkewski loves pansies - it's true.
SIDE BAR: I just finished up reading this book - The Last Great Game by Gene Wojciechowski who, to the best of my knowledge, is not related to that little Duke wiener, and I rather enjoyed it despite half the book being about Duke. That might have been the best part, because it basically proved that Christian Laettner really was an asshole, Bobby Hurley really was a whiner, and that Duke team was one of the least likeable teams in the history of history. The Kentucky half of the book is even better, since I was young enough at that time I didn't really realize how crazy it was that UK was even in that position considering the massive sanctions they were under in the few years prior. To get Pitino from the NBA, keep several of their recruits from fleeing despite the team being banned from the postseason, and for Pitino to get a recruit the caliber of Jamal Mashburn despite him knowing he couldn't play in the tournament is all just crazy. And Wojo (this one, not the annoying little rat) either has really old notes or a lot of these guys have incredible memories, because he paints a very vivid and detailed picture. Really, if you dig on college hoops books - as I do - I put this right up there with Feinstein's best work.
10. Kansas Jayhawks. The Jayhawks are interesting because even though I'm not necessarily impressed with them so far this year, they are the only team other than Kentucky who ranks in the top 10 in Ken Pomeroy's both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings. Maybe I should be, but I always worry about team's that are so reliant on two players (Thomas Robinson and Tyshawn Taylor use a combined nearly 60% of KU's possessions). I know that those two are worthy of that kind of reliance - both are probably top 10 National Player of the Year candidates right now - but a bad game from either of them probably dooms them.
11. Georgetown Hoyas. Georgetown certainly wasn't supposed to be here after losing three starters from last year's team, but Henry Sims has really stepped up in his senior year (tripled his scoring and doubled or nearly doubled everything else) and they've gotten major contributions from some unheralded freshmen and have ridden their defense to a surprising 18-4 record. And that's really all I got, because watching a Georgetown game makes me sleepy.
12. Michigan State Spartans. I could be wrong, but I think this might be one of Izzo's best teams. Sure, they've lost a couple road games in the Big Ten but that's to be expected. Don't forget after they lost to UNC and Duke to open the season they went on a 15-game winning streak which included wins over Florida State and Gonzaga, as well as Indiana and Wisconsin if you're impressed by that sort of thing. The emergence in the second part of the season of Keith Appling has taken a lot of pressure off Draymond Green who is a lot better when he can concentrate on rebounding and facilitating the offense and let his points come naturally rather than having to carry the full offensive load. Looking at this group and with Izzo's March history they could be a Final Four team with the right draw.
13. St. Mary's Gaels. I didn't even realize St. Mary's was all that good this year, but the whitey whitersons are 11-0 in the WCC (and don't forget, BYU is here now too) and are 6-2 against the RPI Top 100. And Matthew Dellavedova doesn't just have one of the coolest names and sexiest hair in the NCAA, he's one of the best all-around guards as well. I really need to catch one of their games this year before the tournament (maybe the Bracket Busters game against Murray State) so I can really evaluate them but it's clear they can light it up, and that always makes 'em dangerous.
14. San Diego State Aztecs. Even more surprising than G-Town being ranked highly is SDSU being up here because they lost almost everything from last year's team and it was looking like it'd be another case of a mid-major having everything come together and then crashing down after graduations/early defections, but Jamaal Franklin has gone from bit player to superstar, while Chase Tapley has gone from afterthought to star and SDSU is 6-1 in a tough Mountain West and already has wins over the other two major players in UNLV and New Mexico. Next week is a monster because they play the Rebels Saturday and New Mexico the following Wednesday so if they handle that it may be time to start looking at them as a legit Final Four contender.
15. Creighton Blue Jays. These guys are really annoying because everyone is slobbering all over them, but what I see is a terrible defensive team playing in a way down Missouri Valley whose only significant non-conference win is over the aforementioned SDSU. They're going to be somewhere in that 4-7 range for a seed and I have a feeling they're going to end up being a pretty trendy Sweet 16 pick (or more). It could happen, because they do have a player of the year candidate who could carry them in Doug McDermott and they can really shoot the lights out, but if they end up going against a 13-10 seed who can score with them they could be a first round casualty - Iona or Oral Roberts would be a terrible matchup for them.
So that's part 1. I was going to do it all at once but then I got about 8 teams deep and I was all like oh god this is a lot of teams. So I'm cutting her off at 15 for now. I might do the next 10 (+ some notables who received votes) tomorrow night but I might go out to the bar instead. Hell, I might be do both because I'm just crazy like that.
Also on the numbers me, Snacks, and Old Man split we had 8-7 for the Super Bowl so if Bradshaw doesn't score and the Giants instead kick a field goal two win 18-17 we would have won BOATLOADS divided by three. But alas, I sit here. Still poor.
1. Kentucky Wildcats. I think there are four teams this year that are head and shoulders above everybody else in terms of pure talent (Kentucky, Missouri, Baylor, and UNC) but Kentucky is head and shoulders above the other three who are head and shoulders above the rest and they're playing up to their talent this year. Only loss is that 1-pointer at Indiana, and they've won 8 of their last 10 by at least double digits. You're always at risk in the tournament with a young team and a coach who is 95% recruiter/5% game coach, but Doron Lamb, Terrence Jones, and Darius Miller have been there before and can give you some leadership where Calipari fails. They also only go 6.5 deep even with all the blowouts so that's a concern (and I have no idea why Cal isn't giving more run to some other guys in these big wins to help hedge against possible foul trouble in a tournament game when you need someone to step in). Plenty of worries here, but I'm going to have an awfully hard time picking anybody else as my national champion come bracket fill-out time.
2. Syracuse Orange. I didn't list the Cuse as one of those top-4 talented teams this year but that's no slight to them because I think they do the best job of playing as an overall "team" (along with Mizzou). Now that the Fab Melo situation has been figured out they've got a rare mix of players where they can dominate you in the paint, on the perimeter, or slashing to the hole and with their athlete's this year Boeheim's zone might be one of his best ever. Opponent's do kill them on the offensive boards which can spell doom in a tight one, and I'm having trouble buying them completely because they lack any single win you can point to and say "holy shit Cuse is the goods", but they aren't 23-1 by accident. Probably the one top team where I'm just not quite sure what to think.
3. Ohio State Buckeyes. Ohio State is a team I think is flying a little bit under the radar right now, as much as that's possible for a team ranked third in the country. They beat Wisconsin this weekend in a slow-it-down, plodding game and just a couple of weeks ago beat Indiana in a more uptempo game. Their ability to win without having to dictate the pace of the game is a huge positive, not to mention that in William Buford and Jared Sullinger they have what might be the best inside-outside scoring duo in the country right now. They're a bit suspect from a big man stand point outside of Sullinger and, as usual, don't have much depth, but unless DeShaun Thomas shoots them right out of a game they have a great chance at another Final Four berth.
4. Missouri Tigers. One of the only teams I consider both supremely talented and supremely "team-y" for lack of a better term, Mizzou would be my clear pick to take the whole thing in March if it wasn't for damn Kentucky. The Tigers have a reputation as a high-scoring, fast-paced team and they are high-scoring, but they score a ton of points not because they play so fast (105th in the country in tempo) but because they're so efficient (#1 in offensive efficiency). Simply put, they make a lot of shots (#2 in the country in effective FG%) and they take a lot of shots because they rarely turn the ball over (#4 in the country) - thus they score a ton of points and force you to keep up. They have the best back court in the nation and although they look a little weak on the front line since they only really have one true forward in Ricardo Ratliffe, their win going into Baylor and taking on maybe the best front court in college tells me everything I know - it's either going to be Missouri or Kentucky cutting down the nets at the end.
5. North Carolina Tar Heels. Probably the second most talented team in the NCAA behind Kentucky, but they seem to missing every single intangible quality possible - nothing new for a Roy Williams led team. There's no leadership, no hustle, no killer instinct, and no drive. I know they only have three losses, but in two of those they were absolutely crushed (by UNLV and Florida State). And really, outside of the season opening win against Michigan State on a boat do they have a really good win? Wisconsin is overrated, Texas is terrible, and although Long Beach is a very good mid-major that's still all they are. I can't really guarantee an early exit because there is so much talent here, but Harrison Barnes, Kendall Marshall, and Tyler Zeller are all quite types who are looking for someone to follow - one of them needs to become THE guy or we're looking at a non-sweet 16 team here.
6. Baylor Bears. I have a feeling this is going to be the trendy pick for the Final Four (say they're a two seed) to come out of whatever region they end up in and it's tough to argue with - their two losses have been to Missouri and Kansas and that's it. One underrated aspect of Baylor is they are one of the best free throw shooting teams in the country at 74.2% (35th in the nation) and that's helped them win a lot of close ones (six wins over major conference foes of 5 pts or fewer) and could be a difference maker in March. The big worry is although Pierre Jackson has helped them out with the ball-handling this year Baylor is still one of the worst teams in the country in turning the ball over, and as we know one bad game and you're done.
7. Florida Gators. I still think Florida is a Final Four contender because they have such a good back court, but neither Patric Young nor Erik Murphy has become a consistent inside force and that's what they'll need to make a run because despite being perimeter oriented they aren't very good defensively. Erving Walker has settled down and become less chucker and more distributor and he's really allowed Boynton and Beal to flourish. I would love to see a Florida/Missouri match-up - the over/under would be about 170.
8. Murray State Racers. Please. They've played nobody, and I mean nobody. Their strength of schedule is 251, and non-conference it's 119. The only teams they've played that are "real" teams are Memphis (won by 4), Southern Miss (won in double OT), and Dayton (won by 17) and there's a good chance non of them make the NCAA Tournament, which would make Murray State 0-0 against NCAA Tournament teams. It's a cute team and a cute story, but not only have they not played anyone they aren't even beating the bad teams all that convincingly. They shoot over 40% from three so you can't completely write them off, but I have a pretty strong feeling they're a first game loss.
9. Duke Blue Devils. Same year same basic soft Duke team where all you really need is a strong inside dude who can push their finesse big guys around and some guards who can get said big man the ball as well as defend the three. It's why they lost to Florida State and why they lost to Miami on Sunday. Mike Kryzkyzkewski loves pansies - it's true.
SIDE BAR: I just finished up reading this book - The Last Great Game by Gene Wojciechowski who, to the best of my knowledge, is not related to that little Duke wiener, and I rather enjoyed it despite half the book being about Duke. That might have been the best part, because it basically proved that Christian Laettner really was an asshole, Bobby Hurley really was a whiner, and that Duke team was one of the least likeable teams in the history of history. The Kentucky half of the book is even better, since I was young enough at that time I didn't really realize how crazy it was that UK was even in that position considering the massive sanctions they were under in the few years prior. To get Pitino from the NBA, keep several of their recruits from fleeing despite the team being banned from the postseason, and for Pitino to get a recruit the caliber of Jamal Mashburn despite him knowing he couldn't play in the tournament is all just crazy. And Wojo (this one, not the annoying little rat) either has really old notes or a lot of these guys have incredible memories, because he paints a very vivid and detailed picture. Really, if you dig on college hoops books - as I do - I put this right up there with Feinstein's best work.
10. Kansas Jayhawks. The Jayhawks are interesting because even though I'm not necessarily impressed with them so far this year, they are the only team other than Kentucky who ranks in the top 10 in Ken Pomeroy's both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings. Maybe I should be, but I always worry about team's that are so reliant on two players (Thomas Robinson and Tyshawn Taylor use a combined nearly 60% of KU's possessions). I know that those two are worthy of that kind of reliance - both are probably top 10 National Player of the Year candidates right now - but a bad game from either of them probably dooms them.
11. Georgetown Hoyas. Georgetown certainly wasn't supposed to be here after losing three starters from last year's team, but Henry Sims has really stepped up in his senior year (tripled his scoring and doubled or nearly doubled everything else) and they've gotten major contributions from some unheralded freshmen and have ridden their defense to a surprising 18-4 record. And that's really all I got, because watching a Georgetown game makes me sleepy.
12. Michigan State Spartans. I could be wrong, but I think this might be one of Izzo's best teams. Sure, they've lost a couple road games in the Big Ten but that's to be expected. Don't forget after they lost to UNC and Duke to open the season they went on a 15-game winning streak which included wins over Florida State and Gonzaga, as well as Indiana and Wisconsin if you're impressed by that sort of thing. The emergence in the second part of the season of Keith Appling has taken a lot of pressure off Draymond Green who is a lot better when he can concentrate on rebounding and facilitating the offense and let his points come naturally rather than having to carry the full offensive load. Looking at this group and with Izzo's March history they could be a Final Four team with the right draw.
13. St. Mary's Gaels. I didn't even realize St. Mary's was all that good this year, but the whitey whitersons are 11-0 in the WCC (and don't forget, BYU is here now too) and are 6-2 against the RPI Top 100. And Matthew Dellavedova doesn't just have one of the coolest names and sexiest hair in the NCAA, he's one of the best all-around guards as well. I really need to catch one of their games this year before the tournament (maybe the Bracket Busters game against Murray State) so I can really evaluate them but it's clear they can light it up, and that always makes 'em dangerous.
14. San Diego State Aztecs. Even more surprising than G-Town being ranked highly is SDSU being up here because they lost almost everything from last year's team and it was looking like it'd be another case of a mid-major having everything come together and then crashing down after graduations/early defections, but Jamaal Franklin has gone from bit player to superstar, while Chase Tapley has gone from afterthought to star and SDSU is 6-1 in a tough Mountain West and already has wins over the other two major players in UNLV and New Mexico. Next week is a monster because they play the Rebels Saturday and New Mexico the following Wednesday so if they handle that it may be time to start looking at them as a legit Final Four contender.
15. Creighton Blue Jays. These guys are really annoying because everyone is slobbering all over them, but what I see is a terrible defensive team playing in a way down Missouri Valley whose only significant non-conference win is over the aforementioned SDSU. They're going to be somewhere in that 4-7 range for a seed and I have a feeling they're going to end up being a pretty trendy Sweet 16 pick (or more). It could happen, because they do have a player of the year candidate who could carry them in Doug McDermott and they can really shoot the lights out, but if they end up going against a 13-10 seed who can score with them they could be a first round casualty - Iona or Oral Roberts would be a terrible matchup for them.
So that's part 1. I was going to do it all at once but then I got about 8 teams deep and I was all like oh god this is a lot of teams. So I'm cutting her off at 15 for now. I might do the next 10 (+ some notables who received votes) tomorrow night but I might go out to the bar instead. Hell, I might be do both because I'm just crazy like that.
Also on the numbers me, Snacks, and Old Man split we had 8-7 for the Super Bowl so if Bradshaw doesn't score and the Giants instead kick a field goal two win 18-17 we would have won BOATLOADS divided by three. But alas, I sit here. Still poor.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
