So far things in the NCAA Tournament have gone pretty close to what I expected. All my Final Four teams are still alive (Florida, Louisville, Arizona, Michigan State - and yes I know that's a pretty popular combination), and I called Kansas going out early. My only real misses were believing in Creighton (or maybe not believing in Baylor), believing in Duke despite knowing how horrible their defense was (I have no idea why I didn't take Michigan here), and thinking Syracuse had figured out their issues. Overall, my bracket still has a chance to win, so thank you for asking. Anyway, here's what's happening on Thursday:
#11 Dayton vs. #10 Stanford.
There are many great looking games that will be played this weekend, and this game will also be played. There isn't a lot of shine to it because even though both teams are underdogs neither team is very sexy. Stanford is nerds and Dayton is Dayton. Although Dayton looks like the more athletic team with guys like Sibert, Sanford, and Pierre who can kind of do a little of everything, Stanford has not just size but skilled size in Dwight Powell and Stefan Nastic, as well as Josh Huestis who seems to play big.
It should be a close game, but unfortunately for lose who were hoping to experience a little schadenfreude at the expense of Reid Travis with Johnny Dawkins flaming out and getting fired (which clearly isn't happening now), I think he gets another big win. I'm on Stanford here laying the three.
#6 Baylor vs. #2 Wisconsin.
I know Scott Drew is a horrible coach. I know it all the way to the bottom of my tiny black heart, but I'm not so sure Bo Ryan is that much better, at least this year and Baylor is absolutely clicking at the right time. More than that, how the hell is Wisconsin going to deal with Baylor's size and athleticism? Cory Jefferson is what Nigel Hayes hopes to be in four years and he's having a great run to end his career. Isaiah Austin seems to finally be getting it, Rico Gathers is a rebounding machine, and the wings are Royce O'Neale and Taurean Prince who are 6-6 and 6-7. Frank Kaminsky might actually get killed. You realize Duje Dukan will likely have to be prominently involved here?
Wisconsin's only chance is if Scott Drew plays a zone, which is actually Baylor's preferred, and they get hot. Drew is dumb enough to do it, but even if he does their size might bother Wisconsin enough so it actually works. This is still my biggest bet of the weekend at five units to cover three and a half and another unit on the moneyline. Also taking the under 137 for a unit, as I think Wisconsin is going to play slower and hope Baylor is dumb enough to not be able to guard. Also possible.
#4 UCLA vs. #1 Florida.
Florida was my pick to win a couple months ago and still is, and I realize that's not really going out on a limb but I just can't find any weaknesses here. They have the second best defense in the country (on a per possession basis) behind Arizona and a top 20 offense as well. They have senior leadership that seems to count in March and excellent guard play with the SEC player of the year in Scottie Wilbekin. They have five guys who can have a blow up game so if anybody is off (maybe outside Wilbekin if we're talking things beyond shooting) oh well just move on to the next guy.
I like UCLA a lot and Kyle Anderson is one of my favorite players and if Zach LaVine and Norman Powell are clicking those three and Jordan Adams form a damn good four pack, but LaVine has been horrible lately. For UCLA to win you're going to be counting on the Wear twins and Tony Parker to check Florida's group of tight end looking guys who can come at you in waves. No chance. Florida -4.5 for three units. I also think there's a decent chance this goes over the 137 because UCLA likes to run and Florida can run with anybody, but I can also see a repeat of their game against Pitt where the Bruins can't score and the Gators just grind clock. Pass for now, but I'm sure I'll do something with it prior to tip because I'm an action junkie.
#4 San Diego State vs. #1 Arizona.
This has not been a kind tournament to defensive minded teams who are limited offensively - Kansas State, Ohio State, Cincinnati, and St. Louis are all gone. San Diego State fits that mold as well with one difference - Xavier Thames. You could try to make a similar argument in favor of Cincy and Sean Kilpatrick, but where it always seems like Kilpatrick has to struggle to score, Thames seems to do it much more effortlessly. I know that kind of sounds stupid since Kilpatrick averaged over 20 points per game this year, but I managed to watch a lot of Cincy and see SDSU a few times and it's just an impression I got, I can't really back it up. Just trust me I'm much smarter than you.
Yes, the Wildcats have the #1 point-per-possession defense in the field, and it's because they force opponents to take jump shots and pack the paint to take away almost anything driving to the rim. Well, Thames doesn't drive - he's taken only 17% of his shots this year at the rim but hits 40% on both two point and three point jumpers. Arizona is basically going to be daring an excellent jump shooter to shoot jump shots. I don't think that will be enough for the Aztecs to pull off an upset, but with that dynamic and a really, really good defense I expect this to be close. I know Arizona beat SDSU by 9 in San Diego earlier this year, but Arizona had Brandon Ashley in that game and SDSU didn't have Dwayne Polee so I'm on SDSU getting seven for two units. I also expect a real grind it out game, but the 122 is too low a number for me since it's a tournament game I figure to be close which could result in a lot of fouls, especially since my perception is in an elimination game losing teams continue to foul longer than they normally would. Instead I'm throwing two units on the first half line, under 55.5.
Showing posts with label San Diego State. Show all posts
Showing posts with label San Diego State. Show all posts
Wednesday, March 26, 2014
Sunday, October 28, 2012
DWG College Hoops Preview: Teams #25-20
Delmon effing Young. Is it possible that the dude is a legit playoff assassin? And when he blows up in the playoffs and the Tiger fans are like, "Hooray Delmon he's awesome" and all us Twins fans are kind of like "ha ha small sample size it's pure luck this dude sucks" that we're actually wrong? Like, that Delmon is a Mr. Clutch type of guy rather than a Mr. Plow type of guy? He has 8 home runs in his postseason career (115ish ABs) which would put him at like 40 for a season at that rate when his career high is 21. In seven career playoff series he's hit over .300 in four of them, which is pretty remarkable when he's never done it in a full season. He's OPSed over 1.100 twice in the playoffs, which is pretty remarkable. You know how many dudes have ever done that? Well probably a lot but I still think it's crazy that we're talking about Delmon Young. When do we pass the small sample size thing? He's over 100 ABs at this point. I'm just saying. Maybe the guy knows how to raise his game? Or actually tries in the playoffs? I don't know. Pretty crazy.
25. Virginia Commonwealth Rams. I'm getting kind of sick of VCU doing well all the time, but there's no reason to think this streak is going to end as long as Shaka Smart is still there and not coaching the Gophers. VCU even picked up two recruits off ESPN's Top 100 list, the first of the Smart era. They only lose one starter off of last year's squad, and even though he was their leading scorer last year it doesn't really matter because the way these teams are always constructed to be deep, balanced, and give plenty of minutes to plenty of players so with almost the full rotation back plus the two freshmen I think these guys will be just fine, and moving to a bigger conference (they're in the A-10 now) means they won't have to scrape and claw for an at-large bid so expect to see them in March once again. Oh, and just to rub it in, VCU is planning construction on a new basketball practice facility sometime in 2013. *killsself*
24. San Diego State Aztecs. Remember that SDSU team from two years ago that was so awesome? I loved that team, and good news for people like me, this year's Aztec team is similarly built and might be even better. Pretty much everybody of consequence on this year's squad is versatile and between 6-3 and 6-8, they have last year's two top scorers in the Mountain West back in Chase Tapley and Jamaal Franklin, a very good point guard in Xavier Thames, one of the best recruits in history coming in with Winston Shepard, and great depth on the bench thanks to a whole slew of transfers. Last year was a disappointment but the Aztecs still made the NCAA Tournament for the third straight season under the awesome Steve Fisher, a streak that should continue unlike my streak of winning on pulltabs which ended last night thanks to a stupid box called "Halloscream." Always stay away from seasonal gimmicks. I should have known better.
23. Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Speaking of remember things, remember Luke Harangody? Well apparently he had a twin little brother because Jack Cooley is back for his senior season and he's pretty much the exact same guy. The numbers aren't quite as gaudy but the game is nearly identical as is the physical appearance to a creepy level. Even creepier than having a Harangody clone hanging around is Scott Martin is back for another year. Yes, the same Scott Martin who was part of the JaJuan Johnson/Robbie Hummel/E'Twaun Moore/Scott Martin recruiting class at Purdue. The transfer to Notre Dame and losing a year to injury have had him in college nearly as long as Trevor Mbakwe. What it really means is that the starting front court for Notre Dame 2013 will look exactly the same as Notre Dame 2010. It would be sweet if you knew someone who went into a coma in 2010 and then just woke up and you could have them watch a Notre Dame game and convince them they were only unconscious for a couple of days.
22. Michigan State Spartans. It is a testament to the program Izzo has built that he can lose the unquestioned leader, heart and soul of the team, do everything coach on the floor guy from last year's team and not take a step back, which I suppose isn't really much of a surprise since, like LL Cool J, he's been here for years. What is a little surprising is there's no heir apparent as the go-to guy/leader that Izzo almost always has. The team's leading returning scorer is Keith Appling who is too erratic, the lone senior is Derrick Nix, who isn't good enough and got busted for pot this summer, and the team's two best players will probably end up being a freshman (Gary Harris) and a guy returning from a knee injury (Branden Dawson). Although knowing how things happen at Michigan State it wouldn't surprise me if one of these guys (or someone else) will morph into that guy. One thing's for sure, the Spartans will play defense, rebound, and will be able to change their game to match their opponent and hang with anybody. I have them as my fifth best Big 10 team, but it wouldn't surprise me if they're the last one from the conference standing in March. They're like the St. Louis Cardinals - nothing they do in the postseason is ever a surprise.
21. UNLV Runnin' Rebels. I think it's safe to say the old Rebels are back in the form of the new Rebels. Under Lon Kruger the Rebels became a walk-it-up kind of team, but with Dave Rice taking over last season they upped their tempo to top 29 in the country and it wouldn't surprise me if they were even faster this year. And they're continuing down the transfer route with Khem Birch, former McDonald's All-American, coming in from Pittsburgh and Bryce Jones, a former starter at USC, coming in this year and both expected to start with Roscoe Smith from UCONN coming in next season. Add in having their leading scorer and rebounder back from last season (Mike Moser who averaged a double double) and add in Anthony Bennett, the 7th best recruit in the country, and the Rebels are loaded with talent. The only real question is will they mesh like Tarkanian's UNLV teams, or Tarkanian's Fresno State teams? Obviously, I'm betting on the former (and you can too at 25-1 to win the whole thing).
20. Cincinnati Bearcats. It might be a bit odd to have the Bearcats this high considering they lost Yancy Gates and have nobody who can clearly replace, or even step in, for him, but they have two things that won me over. First, they seemed to be on TV a ton last year and every time I watched them they impressed me with their toughness. Remember after the big fight Xavier went into a tailspin while Cincy went on a run, culminating in a amazing streak closing out the season (wins over #7 Marquette, #14 Georgetown, and #2 Syracuse in the final month) and a run to the Sweet 16. Not to sound like some stupid cliche-ridden sportswriter guy, but these guys were warriors last year. Second, they are loaded at guard with three guys who can shoot, create, get to the rim, and play defense and I'm always a sucker for great guards. All of this is for naught if nobody can play in the paint, however, and their most talented front court guy is a redshirt freshman who is 6-7 and weighs 170 - that's not a typo. Guy's like if you took Manute Bol, shrunk him by a foot and then made him 33% skinnier. And also you'd have to take away the 3-point shot because Manute was NAILS.
Previous:
Teams #68-60
Teams #59-53
Teams #52-47
Teams #46-39
Teams #38-34
Teams #33-26
Previous:
Teams #68-60
Teams #59-53
Teams #52-47
Teams #46-39
Teams #38-34
Teams #33-26
Sunday, January 29, 2012
Week in Review - 1/30/2012
So I'm going no introduction. Suck it.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Gopher Basketball. The basketball gods giveth, and they taketh away but in this case in the reverse order of that. The Gophers lost a game they probably should have won when the played the Illini in Champaign and then made up for it by winning on Saturday when they should have lost, and would have if Meyers Leonard had just backed out of the way. In any case, the Gophers are now 4-5 in conference play and would probably sneak into the tournament if it started today, which means they're in good position assuming they don't screw things up, making this week a monster. They head to Iowa and then to Nebraska, two winnable road games that are more than just winnable, they're must wins. I've been hurt too many times by Gopher teams and women to be fooled again, which is why I'm not buying into this team until after this week. If they can win two road games they need to I'll go ahead and buy in. Until then consider me cautiously optimistic.
Two players who deserve extra praise following the Illinois win are Chip Armelin and Andre Hollins or Andre Westbrook as he is known when I talk. Armelin was the hero of the first half and basically the reason the Gophers went into half-time with a lead thanks to his energy, fearlessness, an accurate jumper, and a couple of great passes including a Magic-esque fake behind the back drop-off on a fastbreak. Armelin was awesome.
But Andre Hollins might have been even better in the second half and overtime. The Gophers had a pretty easy time of it in overtime and Andre Hollins was the biggest reason, and seriously how much does he remind you of Russell Westbrook? I can't be the only one who sees this. Not a great shooter but has the ability to get hot, with the strongest part of his game his ability to get to the rim, which is a strength because he's willing to take it in there against anybody. I suppose that could describe Joe Coleman as well, but Hollins kind of looks like Westbrook too. I don't know, but with Hollins and Coleman maybe this team has a future after all. Stay tuned.
2. Kevin Love. I figured he'd sign, I guessed he'd sign, but until it happens you can't ever relax, especially in a place that has seen all non-Twin beloved figures bolt and/or force their way out at some point, but now Love is ours. For at least three years, and I think that's the best part of this deal for both sides. Love is a smart dude who knows what he's doing, which is why it wasn't surprising when I read an article pre-lockout about him and how he and his agent were putting 90% of his income or something into an account not to be touched and he was just living off of 10%, which is really what everybody in pro sports should do but almost nobody does. He continued his smart behavior by going with the 3-year opt out clause in his deal, which basically says, "Yes, I want to play here and build a winner but if that's not happening and the team isn't doing what it's supposed to I want out" which, again is a smart way to go about things. Plus, now the Wolves absolutely have to work to build a team around him or he can just take off. Three more years of Love + Rubio + Williams. How good can they be? I have no clue yet, but I am damn glad we will get to find out.
3. Detroit Tigers. Well shit. Just when you think the Twins have a chance to be relevant (V-Martinez out for the year, White Sox trading everything away) the Tigers go and sign Prince Fielder. Part of me wants to point out that giving a 9-year contract to a guy who is in the kind of shape Fielder's in and who only has one real skill (hitting) who is 29 years old probably means the last couple of years of that contract, at a minimum, are going to be a burden. But I'm also smart enough to recognize that the part of me that wants to point that out is really nothing more than just a jealous asshole because this freaking sucks. Fielder and Cabrera give the Tigers two of what, the five best hitters in the game? And Avila and Peralta can hammer the ball as well. If Delmon Young's figured out or if Brennan Boesch or Austin Jackson ever do that lineup is going to be sick, as if it isn't already. And although there's plenty of questions behind Verlander, Fister-Scherzer-Porcello has a chance to be pretty solid. Detroit's not a runaway favorite in the Central or anything, but they're clearly a favorite. Just a great move that says, "F money, we're going for it" and the kind of thing the Twins would never, ever do in a million years. Is the Chili Davis signing the biggest FA move of our lifetime? Am I forgetting anything? I'm moving to Detroit.
Just kidding. I don't want to get shot. Unless I do it myself after the Gophers lose to both Iowa and Nebraska.
4. Lou Diamond Phillips. I'm guessing most people don't watch Celebrity Cook-Off but for me if it's a cooking competition I'm pretty much watching no matter what, and LDP beat out Coolio to take this one down, although both of them would have been worthy champions. Labamba was more refined, while Coolio had his own ideas and his own recipes which apparently worked well (mayo on cheesy bread?) but these two were definitely the two best cooks who took it seriously. Joey Fatone can knock out Italian food but has zero range and zero creative skill, and there wasn't another cook besides those three who seemed worthwhile (Aaron Carter was one and his big dish was a macaroni salad lolololololol). So nice work Lou for a good season where I actually learned stuff. I look forward to not hearing your name again for 10 years or so until you resurface playing an Indian Chief is some sort of fancy movie. Probably Sitting Bull or some shit. With Ashton Kutcher as Custer.
5. Iowa State Cyclones. One of the most enjoyable basketball experiences I've ever had was going down to Ames for the first time (Snacks is a graduate and I was visiting him) and going to Hilton Coliseum and watching a good but not great Cyclones team take down a Kansas team that I think was ranked #1 going into the game, including seeing Minnesota's own Jake Sullivan pull up from 35-feet on a 3-on-2 fast break and nail a 3 (no joke, that was probably the coolest thing I've ever seen on a basketball court in person). This weekend the Cyclones did it again, knocking off the Jayhawks 72-64, once again behind a native Minnesotan. This time it wasn't a under-recruited, short little whiteboy with a deadly jumper who is in range from anywhere on the court, but a tatted up, nationally recognized top recruit with some mental problems and the kind of well-rounded game where he leads the team in points, rebounds, assists, blocks, and is 0.2 behind in steals. Seriously I don't know if you've seen him yet this year but Royce White is really, really, really good. Really good. Put him on this Gopher team and they're an automatic NCAA team. Put him and Mbakwe on this team and you're talk Sweet 16 team with upside.
God dammit.
WHO SUCKED
1. Ralph Sampson. It's official, the Gophers are now actively winning games in spite of Sampson. 5 points and 5 fouls with only three rebounds and couldn't be bothered to block a shot. Not only was he crappy in measurable things, but he just got crushed by Meyers Leonard who had at least two and maybe three offensive boards on missed Illinois free throws that he got by just leaning on Ralph and moving him too far under the rim to do anything about it. And Sampson just let it happen again and again. Several times Sampson didn't even look interested, like the one time I specifically watched him and when Illinois took a jump shot he just stood there while Leonard went right around him and grabbed the o-board. The guy had six offensive rebounds for the game and I'm fairly certain all six came against Sampson. In a career full of disappointing games and poor effort, this one really took the cake. Elliason is a better option at this point. You may consider my heart-broken. Just like when Emma Stone dyed her hair blonde. Why Emma? Why?
2. San Diego State. The funny thing, and I guess it's not really funny but whatever shut up, is that I actually had SDSU teed up as WHO WAS AWESOME after they went into Wyoming and rolled an underrated Cowboy team that was starting to look sleeperiffic. I know beating Wyoming, even in Laramie, isn't usually impressive but trust me that was a really good win, not to mention SDSU was 18-2 in a year when they had lost four starters and the core of a sweet 16 team and weren't supposed to add up to much. Probably the biggest surprise (pleasant surprise) of the year. And then they roll into Fort Collins and just get smoked by the Colorado State and getting out-played in every way possible. Big deal? No, not really because the Aztecs are basically in the tournament no matter what, especially because collapse is nearly impossible since the Mountain West is meh this year, but just a hugely disappointing loss. Why I care so much, I couldn't begin to tell you.
3. Bruce Weber. I have no idea how this guy still has a job. He's one of the worst game coaches this side of Rick Barnes, and nobody does less with more than Weber. When is the last time he actually exceeded expectations? I know he did well at Southern Illinois (recruiting better than the rest of the conference, naturally, since that's the one thing he excels at) and he had a good start at Illinois with Self's players including that Final Four, but since then they've been garbage, right? I mean I know they've made the NCAA Tournament like 4 of the 6 years since then and as Gopher fans we'd kill for that level of success, but based on the recruits he's bringing in that's pathetic, especially since they've only won two tournament games in that span. I guess that's what happens when you hitch your wagon to fat non-point guard with no real point guard skills Demetri McCamey for four years and don't bother to, you know, recruit another point guard for four freaking years. See you probably thought I wouldn't ever be able to work in another dig at McCamey, but then BAM! there we are. Did you know he did 0 bench reps at the college hoops draft combine. Zero. Should have made it a donut eating contest.
4. Central Michigan Chippewas. Not that this week at 0-2 was particularly bad for Central Michigan because they plain old suck at 7-13 and have lost five straight, but it's time to call attention this because I thought they were supposed start getting more gooder. Remember two years ago when Trey Ziegler was the #28 recruit in the country and had offers from Arizona, Duke, Michigan State, Michigan, and UCLA amongst others? And then remember how he passed up all those opportunities in order to play for his dad at CMU? Yeah, apparently it didn't matter because 10 total games last year and might be worse this year. Ziegler leads the team in scoring, rebounding, and assists for the second straight year, but who cares because they're terrible. It's basically the same story from the same year as Ray McCallum who ended up going to Detroit to play for daddy, but at least they're showing some signs of improvement - this Ziegler thing is a nightmare.
5. Phil Mickelson. Lefty is a bonafide stud when it comes to Torrey Pines. He's won there three times in his career, he has 8 top-fives including a solo second here last year. He's played at Torrey Pines 22 times on the PGA Tour, grew up playing on this course, lives like 5 minutes away, and hasn't missed a cut there in 10 years. So how'd he do this weekend at the Farmers Insurance Open? Natually he shot a +5 on Thursday, the day when over 2/3rds of the field went under par, and then missed the cut. What an asshole.
Also I totally missed this which is why it's just getting mentioned here, but apparently Kyle Stanley didn't win the golf tournament today, despite having a 3-shot lead going into the last hole. I was watching the end, but after he laid up on his second shot on the par-5 eighteenth hole to about 75 yards I figured it was over and clicked off. According the words that other people typed, Stanley spun his approach shot right off the green, then on his second try put it 45 feet away and 3-putted (!!!) from there to end up going to a playoff with Brandt Snedeker who won after Stanley missed a five-foot par putt on the second playoff whole. Jesus. I'm damn glad I flipped the channel because if I had watched that I would have alternated laughing and feeling depressed to the point where I'd probably become the Joker. By the way, did you know in the comic books there's a whole subplot where Joker rapes Commissioner Gordon's daughter? Seriously, comic books are way fucked up. I'm scared of comic book fans, for realsies.
Also I really should have mentioned the Magic as a team who sucked. They're in the dumpster at this point. Zero chance Howard finishes out the year there. Howard for Beasley, Webster, Williams, and Wes Johnson works under the cap. Just sayin'.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Gopher Basketball. The basketball gods giveth, and they taketh away but in this case in the reverse order of that. The Gophers lost a game they probably should have won when the played the Illini in Champaign and then made up for it by winning on Saturday when they should have lost, and would have if Meyers Leonard had just backed out of the way. In any case, the Gophers are now 4-5 in conference play and would probably sneak into the tournament if it started today, which means they're in good position assuming they don't screw things up, making this week a monster. They head to Iowa and then to Nebraska, two winnable road games that are more than just winnable, they're must wins. I've been hurt too many times by Gopher teams and women to be fooled again, which is why I'm not buying into this team until after this week. If they can win two road games they need to I'll go ahead and buy in. Until then consider me cautiously optimistic.
Two players who deserve extra praise following the Illinois win are Chip Armelin and Andre Hollins or Andre Westbrook as he is known when I talk. Armelin was the hero of the first half and basically the reason the Gophers went into half-time with a lead thanks to his energy, fearlessness, an accurate jumper, and a couple of great passes including a Magic-esque fake behind the back drop-off on a fastbreak. Armelin was awesome.
But Andre Hollins might have been even better in the second half and overtime. The Gophers had a pretty easy time of it in overtime and Andre Hollins was the biggest reason, and seriously how much does he remind you of Russell Westbrook? I can't be the only one who sees this. Not a great shooter but has the ability to get hot, with the strongest part of his game his ability to get to the rim, which is a strength because he's willing to take it in there against anybody. I suppose that could describe Joe Coleman as well, but Hollins kind of looks like Westbrook too. I don't know, but with Hollins and Coleman maybe this team has a future after all. Stay tuned.
2. Kevin Love. I figured he'd sign, I guessed he'd sign, but until it happens you can't ever relax, especially in a place that has seen all non-Twin beloved figures bolt and/or force their way out at some point, but now Love is ours. For at least three years, and I think that's the best part of this deal for both sides. Love is a smart dude who knows what he's doing, which is why it wasn't surprising when I read an article pre-lockout about him and how he and his agent were putting 90% of his income or something into an account not to be touched and he was just living off of 10%, which is really what everybody in pro sports should do but almost nobody does. He continued his smart behavior by going with the 3-year opt out clause in his deal, which basically says, "Yes, I want to play here and build a winner but if that's not happening and the team isn't doing what it's supposed to I want out" which, again is a smart way to go about things. Plus, now the Wolves absolutely have to work to build a team around him or he can just take off. Three more years of Love + Rubio + Williams. How good can they be? I have no clue yet, but I am damn glad we will get to find out.
3. Detroit Tigers. Well shit. Just when you think the Twins have a chance to be relevant (V-Martinez out for the year, White Sox trading everything away) the Tigers go and sign Prince Fielder. Part of me wants to point out that giving a 9-year contract to a guy who is in the kind of shape Fielder's in and who only has one real skill (hitting) who is 29 years old probably means the last couple of years of that contract, at a minimum, are going to be a burden. But I'm also smart enough to recognize that the part of me that wants to point that out is really nothing more than just a jealous asshole because this freaking sucks. Fielder and Cabrera give the Tigers two of what, the five best hitters in the game? And Avila and Peralta can hammer the ball as well. If Delmon Young's figured out or if Brennan Boesch or Austin Jackson ever do that lineup is going to be sick, as if it isn't already. And although there's plenty of questions behind Verlander, Fister-Scherzer-Porcello has a chance to be pretty solid. Detroit's not a runaway favorite in the Central or anything, but they're clearly a favorite. Just a great move that says, "F money, we're going for it" and the kind of thing the Twins would never, ever do in a million years. Is the Chili Davis signing the biggest FA move of our lifetime? Am I forgetting anything? I'm moving to Detroit.
Just kidding. I don't want to get shot. Unless I do it myself after the Gophers lose to both Iowa and Nebraska.
4. Lou Diamond Phillips. I'm guessing most people don't watch Celebrity Cook-Off but for me if it's a cooking competition I'm pretty much watching no matter what, and LDP beat out Coolio to take this one down, although both of them would have been worthy champions. Labamba was more refined, while Coolio had his own ideas and his own recipes which apparently worked well (mayo on cheesy bread?) but these two were definitely the two best cooks who took it seriously. Joey Fatone can knock out Italian food but has zero range and zero creative skill, and there wasn't another cook besides those three who seemed worthwhile (Aaron Carter was one and his big dish was a macaroni salad lolololololol). So nice work Lou for a good season where I actually learned stuff. I look forward to not hearing your name again for 10 years or so until you resurface playing an Indian Chief is some sort of fancy movie. Probably Sitting Bull or some shit. With Ashton Kutcher as Custer.
5. Iowa State Cyclones. One of the most enjoyable basketball experiences I've ever had was going down to Ames for the first time (Snacks is a graduate and I was visiting him) and going to Hilton Coliseum and watching a good but not great Cyclones team take down a Kansas team that I think was ranked #1 going into the game, including seeing Minnesota's own Jake Sullivan pull up from 35-feet on a 3-on-2 fast break and nail a 3 (no joke, that was probably the coolest thing I've ever seen on a basketball court in person). This weekend the Cyclones did it again, knocking off the Jayhawks 72-64, once again behind a native Minnesotan. This time it wasn't a under-recruited, short little whiteboy with a deadly jumper who is in range from anywhere on the court, but a tatted up, nationally recognized top recruit with some mental problems and the kind of well-rounded game where he leads the team in points, rebounds, assists, blocks, and is 0.2 behind in steals. Seriously I don't know if you've seen him yet this year but Royce White is really, really, really good. Really good. Put him on this Gopher team and they're an automatic NCAA team. Put him and Mbakwe on this team and you're talk Sweet 16 team with upside.
God dammit.
WHO SUCKED
1. Ralph Sampson. It's official, the Gophers are now actively winning games in spite of Sampson. 5 points and 5 fouls with only three rebounds and couldn't be bothered to block a shot. Not only was he crappy in measurable things, but he just got crushed by Meyers Leonard who had at least two and maybe three offensive boards on missed Illinois free throws that he got by just leaning on Ralph and moving him too far under the rim to do anything about it. And Sampson just let it happen again and again. Several times Sampson didn't even look interested, like the one time I specifically watched him and when Illinois took a jump shot he just stood there while Leonard went right around him and grabbed the o-board. The guy had six offensive rebounds for the game and I'm fairly certain all six came against Sampson. In a career full of disappointing games and poor effort, this one really took the cake. Elliason is a better option at this point. You may consider my heart-broken. Just like when Emma Stone dyed her hair blonde. Why Emma? Why?
2. San Diego State. The funny thing, and I guess it's not really funny but whatever shut up, is that I actually had SDSU teed up as WHO WAS AWESOME after they went into Wyoming and rolled an underrated Cowboy team that was starting to look sleeperiffic. I know beating Wyoming, even in Laramie, isn't usually impressive but trust me that was a really good win, not to mention SDSU was 18-2 in a year when they had lost four starters and the core of a sweet 16 team and weren't supposed to add up to much. Probably the biggest surprise (pleasant surprise) of the year. And then they roll into Fort Collins and just get smoked by the Colorado State and getting out-played in every way possible. Big deal? No, not really because the Aztecs are basically in the tournament no matter what, especially because collapse is nearly impossible since the Mountain West is meh this year, but just a hugely disappointing loss. Why I care so much, I couldn't begin to tell you.
3. Bruce Weber. I have no idea how this guy still has a job. He's one of the worst game coaches this side of Rick Barnes, and nobody does less with more than Weber. When is the last time he actually exceeded expectations? I know he did well at Southern Illinois (recruiting better than the rest of the conference, naturally, since that's the one thing he excels at) and he had a good start at Illinois with Self's players including that Final Four, but since then they've been garbage, right? I mean I know they've made the NCAA Tournament like 4 of the 6 years since then and as Gopher fans we'd kill for that level of success, but based on the recruits he's bringing in that's pathetic, especially since they've only won two tournament games in that span. I guess that's what happens when you hitch your wagon to fat non-point guard with no real point guard skills Demetri McCamey for four years and don't bother to, you know, recruit another point guard for four freaking years. See you probably thought I wouldn't ever be able to work in another dig at McCamey, but then BAM! there we are. Did you know he did 0 bench reps at the college hoops draft combine. Zero. Should have made it a donut eating contest.
4. Central Michigan Chippewas. Not that this week at 0-2 was particularly bad for Central Michigan because they plain old suck at 7-13 and have lost five straight, but it's time to call attention this because I thought they were supposed start getting more gooder. Remember two years ago when Trey Ziegler was the #28 recruit in the country and had offers from Arizona, Duke, Michigan State, Michigan, and UCLA amongst others? And then remember how he passed up all those opportunities in order to play for his dad at CMU? Yeah, apparently it didn't matter because 10 total games last year and might be worse this year. Ziegler leads the team in scoring, rebounding, and assists for the second straight year, but who cares because they're terrible. It's basically the same story from the same year as Ray McCallum who ended up going to Detroit to play for daddy, but at least they're showing some signs of improvement - this Ziegler thing is a nightmare.
5. Phil Mickelson. Lefty is a bonafide stud when it comes to Torrey Pines. He's won there three times in his career, he has 8 top-fives including a solo second here last year. He's played at Torrey Pines 22 times on the PGA Tour, grew up playing on this course, lives like 5 minutes away, and hasn't missed a cut there in 10 years. So how'd he do this weekend at the Farmers Insurance Open? Natually he shot a +5 on Thursday, the day when over 2/3rds of the field went under par, and then missed the cut. What an asshole.
Also I totally missed this which is why it's just getting mentioned here, but apparently Kyle Stanley didn't win the golf tournament today, despite having a 3-shot lead going into the last hole. I was watching the end, but after he laid up on his second shot on the par-5 eighteenth hole to about 75 yards I figured it was over and clicked off. According the words that other people typed, Stanley spun his approach shot right off the green, then on his second try put it 45 feet away and 3-putted (!!!) from there to end up going to a playoff with Brandt Snedeker who won after Stanley missed a five-foot par putt on the second playoff whole. Jesus. I'm damn glad I flipped the channel because if I had watched that I would have alternated laughing and feeling depressed to the point where I'd probably become the Joker. By the way, did you know in the comic books there's a whole subplot where Joker rapes Commissioner Gordon's daughter? Seriously, comic books are way fucked up. I'm scared of comic book fans, for realsies.
Also I really should have mentioned the Magic as a team who sucked. They're in the dumpster at this point. Zero chance Howard finishes out the year there. Howard for Beasley, Webster, Williams, and Wes Johnson works under the cap. Just sayin'.
Tuesday, October 25, 2011
NCAA Basketball Preview - The Mountain West
With BYU heading for the weirder pastures of the West Coast Conference, Utah shipping out to the Pac-12, and TCU heading to the Big 12 via the Big East, the Mountain West is looking less and less recognizable. BYU and Utah are both gone already (meaning the Mountain West is now Utah-less), with TCU heading out next year. Boise State is already in place, and starting next season Fresno State, Hawaii (football only), and Nevada will jump on board to bring the MWC to 10 (at least for basketball, assuming Boise stays here for basketball and doesn't do something weird after the football team gets invited into the Big East). It's all very confusing, but it boils down to trading TCU, Utah, and BYU for Boise, Hawaii (football only), Fresno, and Nevada. Not exactly a great trade for the MWC, and this conference is already on the way down. More than 2 bids would be fairly miraculous.
1. NEW MEXICO LOBOS. This team is going to be a monster. Last year they won 22 games and just missed out on an NCAA bid, and this year they return basically their whole team including basically automatic MWC Player of the Year as long as he doesn't go crazy or get suspended or anything in Drew Gordon. The only player they're missing off last year's squad is Dairese Gary, which is actually a big deal because he was there point guard and was all-conference last season, but they have a great nucleus back and plenty of options to take over the point, including Demetrius Walker, a combo guard who transferred from USC and was the main subject of the recent book about AAU ball. Really though, assuming they get competent point guard play this should be a sweet 16 team.
2. UNLV RUNNIN' REBELS. The Rebels lose Tre'Von Willis and Derrick Jasper and they will be missed, Willis especially, but UNLV has plenty coming back and anything less than an NCAA bid will be a big-time failure for first year coach Dave Rice. Combo guard Oscar Bellfield is a potential stud, especially since he'll be playing more SG with Willis out plus the emergence of Anthony Marshall, and Chace Stanback is probably the best player in the conference outside of Drew Gordon and can do it all. The teams biggest issue, and the real problem for them all year, will be in the frontcourt. They were weak there last year as well and made due, but five of their six leading rebounders last year were perimeter players. I'm predicting first round NCAA exit here.
3. SAN DIEGO STATE AZTECS. Last year the stars aligned for the Aztecs with several key players hitting their peak at the same time and it resulted in a very fun and likeable team and an appearance in the Sweet 16. Now four starters are gone, including stud Kawhi Leonard who left early, but things aren't completely barren in San Diego - although it would be a rather large shocker if they made the NCAA Tournament again. In typical MWC fashion, the main additions to the team come via transfer - Garrett Green from LSU, Deshawn Stephens from a JUCO, and Xavier Thames from Washington State. None are instant superstars (like Gordon was for New Mexico) but all should be solid with potential. Add that to the talent they have coming back, much of it from a reserve role of course, and they should be decent. Remember this name: LaBradford Franklin.
4. COLORADO STATE RAMS. You know how when the Gophers were looking for a coach everybody was all like "Tim Miles blah blah blah" and mostly it was just because NDSU beat Monson's Gophers? Well maybe he's pretty decent, because the Rams have gone from 0-16 in conference play a few years ago, to a CBI berth two seasons ago, to an NIT bid last year. That may not sound all that great, but remember this is a CSU program that hasn't done shit since 2003. This year could be tough because they lose their two leading scorers and front court starters, so it will be up to some reserves to step up - or this could be a breakout season for redshirt freshman center Chad Calcaterra, a name you probably recognize because he either spurned the Gophers or they spurned him, I don't remember. And this is probably too many words about CSU already so I'll just say there's enough talent on the perimeter to get them to fourth and another probably NIT bid - tough to see an NCAA bid coming just yet.
5. AIR FORCE FALCONS. Air Force has gone from 0 conference wins, to one, and then jumped to six last season and thank god because while a super slow paced team that wins is kind of beautiful in a weird Betty White kind of way, a super slow paced terrible team is like spending time in a nursing home. I don't remember where I was going with this. Go Air Force!
7. TCU HORNED FROGS. TCU has something the two teams below them don't have, and that's a standout player and that's good enough for 7th place. The Horned Frogs have Hank Thorns who led the country in assists at 7.0 per game and did it with an impressive 2.71 assist-to-turnover ratio, all while averaging double figures in points per game. He's not much of a shooter, but he did notch 4 double-doubles last year of the points/assists variety which I'm going to assume led the nation. Unfortunately TCU's actual best player, and Thorns back court mate, Ronnie Moss was suspended last year and transferred out, or this would have been a legitimately exciting and intriguing back court. Oh well. Not like anybody cares if it isn't football anyway.
7. BOISE STATE COWBOYS. If you're anything like me, and god help you if you are, you don't know dick about Boise State's basketball program because other than Utah State and Magnum Rolle nobody pays attention to the WAC. According to what I read, they were a CBI team last year but are losing their top 4 scorers from last season and returning just one guy who played more than 18 minutes per game last season. There's a bunch of blah blah newcomers, but really it's going to be a rough one for Boise. They're stepping up in class conference-wise at the same time their team is taking a step backwards, but at least they aren't last.
8. WYOMING COWBOYS. In all my years of college basketball watching I'm almost positive I've never seen a Wyoming game. That's probably a good thing. The good news is that they hired a new coach, Larry Shyatt, who was part of the mini-Florida dynasty that was going on. The bad news is that when they hired him their best two players decided to split. Basically they're now relying on a midget point guard, a guy who has had two knee surgeries in as many years, and Larry Nance's kid. I don't think I'll be seeing them on TV any time soon.
Other previews:
Big 12
ACC
Atlantic 10
Pac 12
SEC
C-USA
1. NEW MEXICO LOBOS. This team is going to be a monster. Last year they won 22 games and just missed out on an NCAA bid, and this year they return basically their whole team including basically automatic MWC Player of the Year as long as he doesn't go crazy or get suspended or anything in Drew Gordon. The only player they're missing off last year's squad is Dairese Gary, which is actually a big deal because he was there point guard and was all-conference last season, but they have a great nucleus back and plenty of options to take over the point, including Demetrius Walker, a combo guard who transferred from USC and was the main subject of the recent book about AAU ball. Really though, assuming they get competent point guard play this should be a sweet 16 team.
2. UNLV RUNNIN' REBELS. The Rebels lose Tre'Von Willis and Derrick Jasper and they will be missed, Willis especially, but UNLV has plenty coming back and anything less than an NCAA bid will be a big-time failure for first year coach Dave Rice. Combo guard Oscar Bellfield is a potential stud, especially since he'll be playing more SG with Willis out plus the emergence of Anthony Marshall, and Chace Stanback is probably the best player in the conference outside of Drew Gordon and can do it all. The teams biggest issue, and the real problem for them all year, will be in the frontcourt. They were weak there last year as well and made due, but five of their six leading rebounders last year were perimeter players. I'm predicting first round NCAA exit here.
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| NOTE: This is an Aztec tramp stamp |
4. COLORADO STATE RAMS. You know how when the Gophers were looking for a coach everybody was all like "Tim Miles blah blah blah" and mostly it was just because NDSU beat Monson's Gophers? Well maybe he's pretty decent, because the Rams have gone from 0-16 in conference play a few years ago, to a CBI berth two seasons ago, to an NIT bid last year. That may not sound all that great, but remember this is a CSU program that hasn't done shit since 2003. This year could be tough because they lose their two leading scorers and front court starters, so it will be up to some reserves to step up - or this could be a breakout season for redshirt freshman center Chad Calcaterra, a name you probably recognize because he either spurned the Gophers or they spurned him, I don't remember. And this is probably too many words about CSU already so I'll just say there's enough talent on the perimeter to get them to fourth and another probably NIT bid - tough to see an NCAA bid coming just yet.
5. AIR FORCE FALCONS. Air Force has gone from 0 conference wins, to one, and then jumped to six last season and thank god because while a super slow paced team that wins is kind of beautiful in a weird Betty White kind of way, a super slow paced terrible team is like spending time in a nursing home. I don't remember where I was going with this. Go Air Force!
7. TCU HORNED FROGS. TCU has something the two teams below them don't have, and that's a standout player and that's good enough for 7th place. The Horned Frogs have Hank Thorns who led the country in assists at 7.0 per game and did it with an impressive 2.71 assist-to-turnover ratio, all while averaging double figures in points per game. He's not much of a shooter, but he did notch 4 double-doubles last year of the points/assists variety which I'm going to assume led the nation. Unfortunately TCU's actual best player, and Thorns back court mate, Ronnie Moss was suspended last year and transferred out, or this would have been a legitimately exciting and intriguing back court. Oh well. Not like anybody cares if it isn't football anyway.
7. BOISE STATE COWBOYS. If you're anything like me, and god help you if you are, you don't know dick about Boise State's basketball program because other than Utah State and Magnum Rolle nobody pays attention to the WAC. According to what I read, they were a CBI team last year but are losing their top 4 scorers from last season and returning just one guy who played more than 18 minutes per game last season. There's a bunch of blah blah newcomers, but really it's going to be a rough one for Boise. They're stepping up in class conference-wise at the same time their team is taking a step backwards, but at least they aren't last.
8. WYOMING COWBOYS. In all my years of college basketball watching I'm almost positive I've never seen a Wyoming game. That's probably a good thing. The good news is that they hired a new coach, Larry Shyatt, who was part of the mini-Florida dynasty that was going on. The bad news is that when they hired him their best two players decided to split. Basically they're now relying on a midget point guard, a guy who has had two knee surgeries in as many years, and Larry Nance's kid. I don't think I'll be seeing them on TV any time soon.
Other previews:
Big 12
ACC
Atlantic 10
Pac 12
SEC
C-USA
Wednesday, March 23, 2011
A Gambling Perspective on the Sweet 16
I am now ready to write again. You may think the reason I haven't put any words down is because I filled out the world's worst bracket. And yes, I most certainly did fill out the worst bracket, but since I've never had any credibility anyway I don't really care how badly I look. The reason I haven't been able to put anything up is I'm still trying to recover from Chicago. Three nights of drinking until 3am - two of which started around noon - is way too many for an old man like me to handle. I've been trying to maximize my sleep in order to try to recalibrate myself back to normal. It hasn't worked yet but it's getting better, so I'm going to at least put something up so nobody thinks I'm dead.
There's no doubt my bracket is god damn awful, and I think I've figured out why other than that I suck - overthinking. It's hard to even rank the stupid things I did in making my picks, starting with believing in a Jamie Dixon Pitt team. Perennial underachievers, taking them to the Final Four would have been stupid, let alone picking them as my national champ. And he's not even the worst coach I backed, because I actually put my money behind Rick Barnes. Rick. Effing. Barnes. So dumb. Hell, after those two believing in a Lorenzo Romar-led Washington Huskies team doesn't even look bad, and that would normally be the biggest mistake one could possibly make in a bracket.
It wasn't just backing obviously poor coaches either, because there were some teams I was behind that should have had more obvious red flags. The most obvious is Notre Dame, and somehow I completely missed it and had them in my final four. Yep, I took a team that is almost 100% reliant on the jump shot to score points and suddenly expected them to be able to beat four straight NCAA Tournament caliber teams. Just stupid. But possibly not as stupid as expecting a team that just lost one of it's best players and leading rebounders to make a surprise run to the elite 8. Why did I back St. John's despite all that? Again, I'm an idiot.
The good news, however, is that although my bracket picks were god awful I did manage to come out ahead by a bit with the gambling gods thanks mainly to a heavy bet on George Mason, a heavy bet on the Zona/UNC over, and a super mega heavy bet on Darius Morris over 4 assists against Duke. So let's all clear our minds, forget my poor picks, and concentrate on picking the sweet 16 from a gambling perspective using what I learned this past weekend. We'll do Thursday's games today and Friday's games tomorrow.
UCONN -1 vs. San Diego State: Right away we hit up one of the biggest subplots of the weekend - don't back a poor game coach. Although I love Steve Fisher and the man has a national championship and a couple other Final Fours, he's the epitome of a "recruit great athletes, roll the ball out and let them play" style coach. That can work, but you run into trouble against teams with similar athletes who are backed by a game coach who can actually influence a game, and that's what you have with the Huskies and Jim Calhoun.
Two big x-factors in this game: home court advantage for the Aztecs and Kemba Walker for the Huskies. The game is going to be played just 2 hours from SDSU's campus so it should be a partisan crowd for them, while if you watched any basketball this year you know Kemba Walker is the kind of player who can carry a team by himself - and not only can he, but he's done it over and over in big spots. I give the x-factor advantage to UCONN, and along with the coach factor that makes this one an easy decision. Take UCONN -1 (3 units).
Florida -3 vs. BYU: This one's a rematch of a thrilling first-round match-up from last year that saw BYU take the Gators down in triple-overtime. Both teams are mainly still intact from last year, particularly Florida who has the same starting five, so if you're looking for some kind of x-factor that could be it.
Personally, I'm a bit more interested in how BYU's has survived without being exposed for a lack of a big man by Brandon Davies suspension for playing a little pickle. Basically neither of their first two opponents has been able to throw an athletic big man at them - the type of player the Cougars need Davies around in order to slow down. Wofford's Noah Dahlman is efficient, but he'll never be described as an incredible athlete, while Robert Sacre from Gonzaga is more of a defensive presence. The real question is if Florida's interior players can make BYU pay for their honor code.
Neither Alex Tyus or Vernon Macklin are offensive juggernauts, although they average 20 pts and 11 rebounds per game between the two of them, but the biggest stat affecting this game is their three-point shooting - specifically their lack of interest in in with just 5 attempts between the two of them all season. This means they're basically just going to camp in the lane - bad news for the Cougars. SDSU's Billy Thomas and Malcolm White are similar players to Tyus and Macklin, and in the first two games with Davies BYU held them to a combined average of 17 points and 12 rebounds - both Cougar wins. In their third game with Davies in street clothes those two went off for 30 and 19 and the Aztecs won. Good enough for me. The pick is Florida -3 for 2 units. BONUS: Take the OVER 149.5 for a unit. Florida is going to score at will in the paint, which means BYU is going to have to score a ton to keep this close, pushing the final up into the 80s range each.
Duke -8.5 vs. Arizona: The coaches are a wash because both are excellent in game, although maybe peg Krzyzewski half a point for pre-gaming, and give Arizona a small advantage for being the quasi-home team in this one with the Dukies traveling across the world to play. What I'm really curious is to see how Derrick Williams of Arizona plays here, because I'm getting a bit of a Danny Manning vibe from him.
Williams, who averaged 19 and 8 this season and was one of the most efficient players in the league with a FG% of .600 (.581 from three), has scored 22 and 17 (with 10 and 9 boards) in the Wildcats' first two wins and had a game-winning play in each, one from each end (blocked shot vs. Memphis, 3-point play vs. Texas). Of note is that Duke played a similar player to Arizona's Williams this year twice in Maryland's Jordan Williams, who went for 20 and 10 and 16 and 16 in the two games. In Duke's late loss to UNC John Henson went 10 and 12. Virginia Tech's Jeff Allen scored 18 and grabbed 15 in their win over the Dukies, and Justin Brownlee was 20 and 9 in St. J's win - nearly double his season averages.
Look, I'm not saying Arizona is going to win, but I am saying this is interesting. You have one of the best players in the country carrying his team right now and running himself into possibly the #1 pick in the NBA Draft, and he just so happens to be the kind of player who Duke struggles to contain - the same Duke team that's flying all the way across the country for what will be a semi-road game. Personally, I'm taking Arizona and the +8.5 points for 3 units, but right now if you threw a little cash at the moneyline on Zona you're getting nearly 4/1 odds. I can see it.
Wisconsin -4.5 vs. Butler: In many ways, Butler is just a slightly worse version of Wisconsin - both teams play very efficient offense, good but not great defense, limit opponents possessions by taking extreme care of the basketball and not allowing offensive rebounds, and play at a slow pace. Hell, they even have the same black guy do everything ball-handler guard and big white guy combination. The real question is: is Wisconsin 4.5 half points better than Butler, or less?
Two things have me thinking that Butler is the play here: Timing, and Ronald Nored. As far as timing goes, Butler has struggled all year, even losing five Horizon games and suddenly looking like they wouldn't get an invite to the tournament. Since a three-game losing streak mid-season they've now won the next 11 in a row including a sweep of the second best team in their league (Cleveland State), a win over a team that had previously swept them (Milwaukee) and wins over two very good teams in ODU and Pitt - clearly they're hot. The other reason is Nored - the Bulldogs best defender. He's not much for scoring (he'd be great as a BYU student) so he can just chase Jordan Taylor around all day and use his energy up that way, leaving Shelvin Mack free to concentrate on offense. On the flip side, Wisconsin doesn't have anybody outside of Taylor who I can see Bo Ryan using to guard Mack, so Taylor's going to be playing double duty. Not that he can't handle it, but it's a small advantage toward the Butler side of this one.
Look, I don't know who is going to win this one and I'm really glad I don't have to pick a winner. I think this game is straight 50/50, but those small advantages detailed above tell me that the best bet here is to go ahead and take Butler +4.5 for two units, because this should come down to the wire. As a little bonus, that OVER/UNDER 124 number looks pretty interesting, and I'm taking the OVER 124 for three units. Both teams play slow but neither is a necessarily great defense. Since both teams take great care of the basketball (and neither defense is particularly adept at taking it away), both teams will get their shots. Since both teams are efficient scoring machines, they should score some points.
So there's Thursday's games. Those should work out pretty well because I've got a lot better feeling for this set than I do for the next nights. I'll do some math, run some numbers, read some things, and see how I come out. Right now I'm thinking Ohio State and three question marks. Stay tuned.
There's no doubt my bracket is god damn awful, and I think I've figured out why other than that I suck - overthinking. It's hard to even rank the stupid things I did in making my picks, starting with believing in a Jamie Dixon Pitt team. Perennial underachievers, taking them to the Final Four would have been stupid, let alone picking them as my national champ. And he's not even the worst coach I backed, because I actually put my money behind Rick Barnes. Rick. Effing. Barnes. So dumb. Hell, after those two believing in a Lorenzo Romar-led Washington Huskies team doesn't even look bad, and that would normally be the biggest mistake one could possibly make in a bracket.
It wasn't just backing obviously poor coaches either, because there were some teams I was behind that should have had more obvious red flags. The most obvious is Notre Dame, and somehow I completely missed it and had them in my final four. Yep, I took a team that is almost 100% reliant on the jump shot to score points and suddenly expected them to be able to beat four straight NCAA Tournament caliber teams. Just stupid. But possibly not as stupid as expecting a team that just lost one of it's best players and leading rebounders to make a surprise run to the elite 8. Why did I back St. John's despite all that? Again, I'm an idiot.
The good news, however, is that although my bracket picks were god awful I did manage to come out ahead by a bit with the gambling gods thanks mainly to a heavy bet on George Mason, a heavy bet on the Zona/UNC over, and a super mega heavy bet on Darius Morris over 4 assists against Duke. So let's all clear our minds, forget my poor picks, and concentrate on picking the sweet 16 from a gambling perspective using what I learned this past weekend. We'll do Thursday's games today and Friday's games tomorrow.
UCONN -1 vs. San Diego State: Right away we hit up one of the biggest subplots of the weekend - don't back a poor game coach. Although I love Steve Fisher and the man has a national championship and a couple other Final Fours, he's the epitome of a "recruit great athletes, roll the ball out and let them play" style coach. That can work, but you run into trouble against teams with similar athletes who are backed by a game coach who can actually influence a game, and that's what you have with the Huskies and Jim Calhoun.
Two big x-factors in this game: home court advantage for the Aztecs and Kemba Walker for the Huskies. The game is going to be played just 2 hours from SDSU's campus so it should be a partisan crowd for them, while if you watched any basketball this year you know Kemba Walker is the kind of player who can carry a team by himself - and not only can he, but he's done it over and over in big spots. I give the x-factor advantage to UCONN, and along with the coach factor that makes this one an easy decision. Take UCONN -1 (3 units).
Florida -3 vs. BYU: This one's a rematch of a thrilling first-round match-up from last year that saw BYU take the Gators down in triple-overtime. Both teams are mainly still intact from last year, particularly Florida who has the same starting five, so if you're looking for some kind of x-factor that could be it.
Personally, I'm a bit more interested in how BYU's has survived without being exposed for a lack of a big man by Brandon Davies suspension for playing a little pickle. Basically neither of their first two opponents has been able to throw an athletic big man at them - the type of player the Cougars need Davies around in order to slow down. Wofford's Noah Dahlman is efficient, but he'll never be described as an incredible athlete, while Robert Sacre from Gonzaga is more of a defensive presence. The real question is if Florida's interior players can make BYU pay for their honor code.
Neither Alex Tyus or Vernon Macklin are offensive juggernauts, although they average 20 pts and 11 rebounds per game between the two of them, but the biggest stat affecting this game is their three-point shooting - specifically their lack of interest in in with just 5 attempts between the two of them all season. This means they're basically just going to camp in the lane - bad news for the Cougars. SDSU's Billy Thomas and Malcolm White are similar players to Tyus and Macklin, and in the first two games with Davies BYU held them to a combined average of 17 points and 12 rebounds - both Cougar wins. In their third game with Davies in street clothes those two went off for 30 and 19 and the Aztecs won. Good enough for me. The pick is Florida -3 for 2 units. BONUS: Take the OVER 149.5 for a unit. Florida is going to score at will in the paint, which means BYU is going to have to score a ton to keep this close, pushing the final up into the 80s range each.
Duke -8.5 vs. Arizona: The coaches are a wash because both are excellent in game, although maybe peg Krzyzewski half a point for pre-gaming, and give Arizona a small advantage for being the quasi-home team in this one with the Dukies traveling across the world to play. What I'm really curious is to see how Derrick Williams of Arizona plays here, because I'm getting a bit of a Danny Manning vibe from him.
Williams, who averaged 19 and 8 this season and was one of the most efficient players in the league with a FG% of .600 (.581 from three), has scored 22 and 17 (with 10 and 9 boards) in the Wildcats' first two wins and had a game-winning play in each, one from each end (blocked shot vs. Memphis, 3-point play vs. Texas). Of note is that Duke played a similar player to Arizona's Williams this year twice in Maryland's Jordan Williams, who went for 20 and 10 and 16 and 16 in the two games. In Duke's late loss to UNC John Henson went 10 and 12. Virginia Tech's Jeff Allen scored 18 and grabbed 15 in their win over the Dukies, and Justin Brownlee was 20 and 9 in St. J's win - nearly double his season averages.
Look, I'm not saying Arizona is going to win, but I am saying this is interesting. You have one of the best players in the country carrying his team right now and running himself into possibly the #1 pick in the NBA Draft, and he just so happens to be the kind of player who Duke struggles to contain - the same Duke team that's flying all the way across the country for what will be a semi-road game. Personally, I'm taking Arizona and the +8.5 points for 3 units, but right now if you threw a little cash at the moneyline on Zona you're getting nearly 4/1 odds. I can see it.
Wisconsin -4.5 vs. Butler: In many ways, Butler is just a slightly worse version of Wisconsin - both teams play very efficient offense, good but not great defense, limit opponents possessions by taking extreme care of the basketball and not allowing offensive rebounds, and play at a slow pace. Hell, they even have the same black guy do everything ball-handler guard and big white guy combination. The real question is: is Wisconsin 4.5 half points better than Butler, or less?
Two things have me thinking that Butler is the play here: Timing, and Ronald Nored. As far as timing goes, Butler has struggled all year, even losing five Horizon games and suddenly looking like they wouldn't get an invite to the tournament. Since a three-game losing streak mid-season they've now won the next 11 in a row including a sweep of the second best team in their league (Cleveland State), a win over a team that had previously swept them (Milwaukee) and wins over two very good teams in ODU and Pitt - clearly they're hot. The other reason is Nored - the Bulldogs best defender. He's not much for scoring (he'd be great as a BYU student) so he can just chase Jordan Taylor around all day and use his energy up that way, leaving Shelvin Mack free to concentrate on offense. On the flip side, Wisconsin doesn't have anybody outside of Taylor who I can see Bo Ryan using to guard Mack, so Taylor's going to be playing double duty. Not that he can't handle it, but it's a small advantage toward the Butler side of this one.
Look, I don't know who is going to win this one and I'm really glad I don't have to pick a winner. I think this game is straight 50/50, but those small advantages detailed above tell me that the best bet here is to go ahead and take Butler +4.5 for two units, because this should come down to the wire. As a little bonus, that OVER/UNDER 124 number looks pretty interesting, and I'm taking the OVER 124 for three units. Both teams play slow but neither is a necessarily great defense. Since both teams take great care of the basketball (and neither defense is particularly adept at taking it away), both teams will get their shots. Since both teams are efficient scoring machines, they should score some points.
So there's Thursday's games. Those should work out pretty well because I've got a lot better feeling for this set than I do for the next nights. I'll do some math, run some numbers, read some things, and see how I come out. Right now I'm thinking Ohio State and three question marks. Stay tuned.
Monday, March 14, 2011
Some Tough Bracket Questions
I'm just sitting here, sipping away on some Crown Royal - which I won for free at a raffle while supporting a very worthy cause, so it's win/win - and looking at my bracket picks and there are some really tough questions this year. So why not share what I'm agonizing over? Maybe it will give you some insight to pick a better bracket. Maybe somebody can sway me in the comments section. Or maybe I'll just come to a better conclusion by typing it all out. Maybe it will even be entertaining. Or not. Whatever, dude it's free so just read it.
And don't forget to join the DWG bracket pool at this link. Valuable prizes are there to be won.
EAST REGION
The top half here is pretty straight forward if you ask me, particularly the 8/9 game between GMU and Nova, where Mason should kill the sliding Wildcats and Ohio State will have little trouble with anybody, including Kentucky. I think UK was ripe for a first round upset until they were matched against Princeton, who won't be able to remotely keep up with them. The Princeton offense is cute and can work in some instances, but Kentucky is too athletic and too fast. It wouldn't surprise me if the Tigers keep in close for a half, but Kentucky wins hands down.
The bottom half, however, is a mess for me because both second round games are tough. Syracuse has been both good and bad this year, however what they've had the most trouble with is teams with good, penetrating guards - which exactly what Xavier bases its offense on, particularly Tu Holloway. On the other hand, Xavier hasn't beaten anybody out of conference play - look at their schedule, they've missed on every chance to get a good win. But on the third hand, they did dominate the A-10, for whatever that's worth.
The other game, UNC vs. Washington, is going to be an absolute circus ball barnburner. Washington is a much better team than they're 7 seed, but unfortunately when circus ball goes bad it goes bad in a hurry. Carolina on the other hand snagged a two thanks to a late run through the ACC, but looked pretty bad in their ACC Tournament games. Is Harrison Barnes about to make the leap on the biggest stage or can Justin Holiday shut him down? Can Kendall Marshall run with Captain Circus Ball (Isaiah Thomas)? Is Terrence Ross's emergence in the Pac-10 Tournament a real thing or a fluky blip through a mediocre season? Does Washington have enough skilled bigs to slow down an emerging Tyler Zeller and rebounding machine John Henson? And can either of them stop Matthew Bryan-Amaning?
That's the game where I'm having the biggest issue, because whoever wins that is my elite 8 team opposite Ohio State. Putting a seven seed there might be a recipe for disaster, but like I said I don't think Washington is talented like a 7, more like a 3 or 4. In a wide open tournament they could make a big run. In any case, that section of the bracket is without question the most talented and hardest to pick.
WEST REGION
One of the toughest first round games here for me in Oakland vs. Texas. I was convinced I was going to pick Oakland in their first round match up, because their entire season looks like a run-up to a first round upset: tough non-conference schedule with a bunch of misses, easy run through the conference, an NBA player and another dynamic scorer. And then they got Texas. Texas, who on talent should not be a 4, but more like a 3 or even a 2. Texas, who is equally capable of flaming out and could easily lose not just to Oakland but could even lose to a 16 seed. I just don't know. If Texas does get passed Oakland, however, they'll beat both Arizona and Duke. Book it.
The bottom of the bracket is pretty straight forward other than the Cincy/Mizzou game but who really cares because neither will get through UCONN. Until the sweet 16 matchup between UCONN and San Diego State, that's about as tough as it gets. I don't know if I believe in UCONN, despite that run through the Big East Tournament. Hard to pick against them, though, even if I'm a big SDSU guy. Either way the winner of that game is your final four team, whether they end up having to beat Duke or Texas.
SOUTHEAST REGION
This is without a doubt the biggest mess of a region, at least for me, because other than Pitt winning this entire region, a lock, I've changed the outcome of basically every other game ten times. For some reason I'm having trouble picking Belmont over Wisconsin even though my entire plan was to pick Belmont over anybody because they play so similarly. I also want to pick Utah State over K-State because I think that's a perfect matchup for USU - an undisciplined, mediocrely coached team prone to underachieving - but they haven't beaten anybody this year and I can't stop thinking about how last year's team could keep up with Texas A&M athletically, and this year's team is probably less athletic while K-State is way beyond last year's A&M.
At the bottom here it's stunning that Florida is a two seed, and they could run all the way to the elite 8 or they could get dropped in the first round if their guards aren't shooting well. St. Johns might be the toughest team but just lost leading rebounder and third leading scorer DJ Kennedy to a knee injury. Everybody knows about Jimmer and BYU, but what can you expect from a team who just booted their best interior player for getting some stank on his hang down? Then there's Michigan State who has struggled all year but hell it's Michigan State. This year's version actually looks worse than ever, but I'm pretty sure we said that last year. And maybe the year before. I just don't know.
This whole region is a complete mess for me right now. The only thing I'm remotely sure of is that Pitt is winning it. Other than that, anything else could happen. Hell I could see Gonzaga getting to the elite 8. And, just to throw a little more confusion your way, Old Dominion is absolutely the worst possible second round matchup for Pitt, and as sure as I sound about Pitt winning it wouldn't remotely surprise me if ODU wins. Crazy year.
SOUTHWEST REGION
This is the region I'm most confident in. Kansas is a very good team that's also very vulnerable, but fortunately for them they don't face a team that can beat them until Notre Dame in the elite 8. Louisville is a good team that will get to sweet 16 and I wanted to pick them to beat the Jayhawks, but they just aren't a good enough team to do it. I like their guards but neither Knowles or Siva is the type to dominate a game and I don't think they have the interior guys to handle the Morrisisis's, so KU moves on.
In the bottom half the toughest game to pick is Georgetown vs. Purdue. The Hoyas were looking very Final Four sleeperish but faded hard once Chris Wright went out with a broken hand. He's supposed to be back for the tournament (and it's his non-shooting hand) but who knows how it will affect him? The game is in Chicago as well, which settled the coin flip for me and convinced me to push Purdue through to the Sweet 16. Not that it really matters, because either team loses to Notre Dame. Both the Irish and the Jayhawks could have been vulnerable to the right (wrong?) team, but both caught a break and are on a collision course to the Elite 8. That will be a great game, and I see the Notre Dame pulling it out because Kansas has to choke somewhere.
I feel better now. I know what I'm going to do. Go ahead and prove you're smarter than me. And forward the link on to as many people as you want. I'm still going to win. And then I get to keep all the prizes.
SUCKA MC!
And don't forget to join the DWG bracket pool at this link. Valuable prizes are there to be won.
EAST REGION
The top half here is pretty straight forward if you ask me, particularly the 8/9 game between GMU and Nova, where Mason should kill the sliding Wildcats and Ohio State will have little trouble with anybody, including Kentucky. I think UK was ripe for a first round upset until they were matched against Princeton, who won't be able to remotely keep up with them. The Princeton offense is cute and can work in some instances, but Kentucky is too athletic and too fast. It wouldn't surprise me if the Tigers keep in close for a half, but Kentucky wins hands down.
The bottom half, however, is a mess for me because both second round games are tough. Syracuse has been both good and bad this year, however what they've had the most trouble with is teams with good, penetrating guards - which exactly what Xavier bases its offense on, particularly Tu Holloway. On the other hand, Xavier hasn't beaten anybody out of conference play - look at their schedule, they've missed on every chance to get a good win. But on the third hand, they did dominate the A-10, for whatever that's worth.
The other game, UNC vs. Washington, is going to be an absolute circus ball barnburner. Washington is a much better team than they're 7 seed, but unfortunately when circus ball goes bad it goes bad in a hurry. Carolina on the other hand snagged a two thanks to a late run through the ACC, but looked pretty bad in their ACC Tournament games. Is Harrison Barnes about to make the leap on the biggest stage or can Justin Holiday shut him down? Can Kendall Marshall run with Captain Circus Ball (Isaiah Thomas)? Is Terrence Ross's emergence in the Pac-10 Tournament a real thing or a fluky blip through a mediocre season? Does Washington have enough skilled bigs to slow down an emerging Tyler Zeller and rebounding machine John Henson? And can either of them stop Matthew Bryan-Amaning?
That's the game where I'm having the biggest issue, because whoever wins that is my elite 8 team opposite Ohio State. Putting a seven seed there might be a recipe for disaster, but like I said I don't think Washington is talented like a 7, more like a 3 or 4. In a wide open tournament they could make a big run. In any case, that section of the bracket is without question the most talented and hardest to pick.
WEST REGION
One of the toughest first round games here for me in Oakland vs. Texas. I was convinced I was going to pick Oakland in their first round match up, because their entire season looks like a run-up to a first round upset: tough non-conference schedule with a bunch of misses, easy run through the conference, an NBA player and another dynamic scorer. And then they got Texas. Texas, who on talent should not be a 4, but more like a 3 or even a 2. Texas, who is equally capable of flaming out and could easily lose not just to Oakland but could even lose to a 16 seed. I just don't know. If Texas does get passed Oakland, however, they'll beat both Arizona and Duke. Book it.
The bottom of the bracket is pretty straight forward other than the Cincy/Mizzou game but who really cares because neither will get through UCONN. Until the sweet 16 matchup between UCONN and San Diego State, that's about as tough as it gets. I don't know if I believe in UCONN, despite that run through the Big East Tournament. Hard to pick against them, though, even if I'm a big SDSU guy. Either way the winner of that game is your final four team, whether they end up having to beat Duke or Texas.
SOUTHEAST REGION
This is without a doubt the biggest mess of a region, at least for me, because other than Pitt winning this entire region, a lock, I've changed the outcome of basically every other game ten times. For some reason I'm having trouble picking Belmont over Wisconsin even though my entire plan was to pick Belmont over anybody because they play so similarly. I also want to pick Utah State over K-State because I think that's a perfect matchup for USU - an undisciplined, mediocrely coached team prone to underachieving - but they haven't beaten anybody this year and I can't stop thinking about how last year's team could keep up with Texas A&M athletically, and this year's team is probably less athletic while K-State is way beyond last year's A&M.
At the bottom here it's stunning that Florida is a two seed, and they could run all the way to the elite 8 or they could get dropped in the first round if their guards aren't shooting well. St. Johns might be the toughest team but just lost leading rebounder and third leading scorer DJ Kennedy to a knee injury. Everybody knows about Jimmer and BYU, but what can you expect from a team who just booted their best interior player for getting some stank on his hang down? Then there's Michigan State who has struggled all year but hell it's Michigan State. This year's version actually looks worse than ever, but I'm pretty sure we said that last year. And maybe the year before. I just don't know.
This whole region is a complete mess for me right now. The only thing I'm remotely sure of is that Pitt is winning it. Other than that, anything else could happen. Hell I could see Gonzaga getting to the elite 8. And, just to throw a little more confusion your way, Old Dominion is absolutely the worst possible second round matchup for Pitt, and as sure as I sound about Pitt winning it wouldn't remotely surprise me if ODU wins. Crazy year.
SOUTHWEST REGION
This is the region I'm most confident in. Kansas is a very good team that's also very vulnerable, but fortunately for them they don't face a team that can beat them until Notre Dame in the elite 8. Louisville is a good team that will get to sweet 16 and I wanted to pick them to beat the Jayhawks, but they just aren't a good enough team to do it. I like their guards but neither Knowles or Siva is the type to dominate a game and I don't think they have the interior guys to handle the Morrisisis's, so KU moves on.
In the bottom half the toughest game to pick is Georgetown vs. Purdue. The Hoyas were looking very Final Four sleeperish but faded hard once Chris Wright went out with a broken hand. He's supposed to be back for the tournament (and it's his non-shooting hand) but who knows how it will affect him? The game is in Chicago as well, which settled the coin flip for me and convinced me to push Purdue through to the Sweet 16. Not that it really matters, because either team loses to Notre Dame. Both the Irish and the Jayhawks could have been vulnerable to the right (wrong?) team, but both caught a break and are on a collision course to the Elite 8. That will be a great game, and I see the Notre Dame pulling it out because Kansas has to choke somewhere.
I feel better now. I know what I'm going to do. Go ahead and prove you're smarter than me. And forward the link on to as many people as you want. I'm still going to win. And then I get to keep all the prizes.
SUCKA MC!
Monday, December 20, 2010
Week in Review - 12.20.2010
Two last things about my trip to California:
1. On the ride home I sat next to this young woman probably in her early twenties. Throughout the entire three and a half hour flight she didn't nap. She also didn't read. She didn't have a computer. She didn't do a crossword or sudoku book. She declined a drink when they came by to offer a complimentary beverage. She never went to the bathroom. She never spoke to anyone. No, she did nothing except stare straight ahead and blink for 3 and a half hours. Absolutely bizarre and kind of creepy. She's either a genius who needs nothing more than her brain to be entertained, or dumb as hell with an empty head. I have my suspicions.
2. If you are ever in California you absolutely have to check out In-and-Out Burger. Absolutely the best burger ever, excellent fries, and it's all at a near fast-food (but it's not fast food) pace. Get yourself a double-double and order it animal style. You won't regret it. So freaking good. Anyway, on to the real stuff.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. UCLA Bruins. Still not exactly sure what to make of the Pac-10, and I'm still pretty sure they mostly suck, but UCLA picked up a huge win this weekend knocking off BYU (previously undefeated) in Anaheim at the Wooden Classic. They won by forcing the Cougars into 19 turnovers, 7 by Jimmer Fredette, and got a huge game out of Reeves Nelson, who looks like a nerd but plays like white jesus. This win, along with the Bruins hanging with Kansas right to the wire earlier this year, shows that the Bruins have the capability to compete with Washington and Arizona at the top of this conference. They also have the capability to get swept by the Oregon schools. Buyer beware.
2. San Diego State Aztecs. It's not so much that they got a big win this week, but they're still undefeated (now 12-0) and the way they dismantled Santa Barbara by 26 - the same Gauchos team that just beat UNLV and will likely win the Big West - I'm just beyond impressed right now. They're extremely balanced, have a great mix of inside/outside scoring, and are very efficient on both ends of the court. About their only weakness is they don't have a true point guard who plays much, but everyone can handle the ball so they'll probably be ok there. I don't know what odds you'd find at your favorite online betting site, but I can still find 40-1 on them to win the NCAA Championship on mine. I recommend you jump on it.
3. Gonzaga Bulldogs. About time. After whiffing on every opportunity to get a quality win - they lost versus San Diego State, Kansas State, Illinois, Washington State, and Notre Dame - they finally got something to show off in March with a big win over Baylor in Dallas, a semi-road game. Couple this with their win over Marquette, and the Zags are suddenly looking to be in decent shape after being a bit of a concern even last week. They play Xavier, UL-Lafayette, Oklahoma State, and Wake Forest before starting WCC play. ULL and Wake should be gimmes, so if they can split the Xavier/OSU games (and they should, and a sweep is probably likely since both are in Spokane) that would put them at 9-6 with three quality wins going into conference games. With that schedule and those wins they would probably just have to go 11-3 or even 10-4 to get an at-large. Shouldn't be an issue.
4. Kevin Love. I don't write a lot of NBA here - because it sucks until the playoffs - but just how freaking sweet is K-Love? His point/rebs by game this week were: 13 & 14, 23 & 16, 19 & 17, and 43 & 17. Freaking 43 and 17. Wow. He's a 40% 3-point shooter, a decent offensive player inside the paint, and the best rebounder the NBA has seen since Rodman. Other than your physical tools (which Love is lacking in, as was Rodman) there are two things that can make you an elite level rebounder - an understanding of where the ball is likely to go (positioning) and a hunger to be the one who gets the ball (effort). Love has both in spades, and has used those tools to. I don't know about you, but I'd probably find somewhere to do some basketball betting and just take the over on Love's rebounds in every single game.
5. Kansas City Royals. If you're going to trade an ace this is how you do it. They shipped Zack Greinke and his anti-anxiety medication over to Milwaukee in return for SPs Jeremy Jeffress and Jake Odorizzi, SS Alcides Escobar, and CF Lorenzo Cain. The Royals are thought to have one of the, if not the, best farm systems in the league right now, and they just got better. Perusing some lists, the two starting pitchers they just got are generally ranked in the top 3 in the Brewers' system, Escobar is thought to be a future star at SS even if he didn't exactly have a great first season last year, and Cain is a "toolsy" center fielder of the future type of player. In short, it was a haul for a team that is already loaded for the future. Twins better win now, because starting in about 2013 the Royals' dynasty is ON. (NOTE: Milwaukee also better win now, because between this trade and the Lawrie for Marcum trade they have essentially killed their future).
WHO SUCKED
1. Tennessee Volunteers. There were quite a few teams who had bad losses this week, but nobody can touch the disaster that was the Vols. Two games this week - vs. Oakland and @ Charlotte - and two losses. the Oakland game is rough, because although the Golden Grizzlies are an NCAA caliber team, they've been unable to crab a real impressive win, losing to West Virginia, Illinois, Michigan State, and Purdue. Then the Charlotte loss...oof. The 49ers are, frankly, pretty awful, coming into the game at 4-6 with losses to Gardner-Webb and East Carolina, and they just kicked Shamari Spears, their leading scorer, off the team. Tennessee has shown how good they can be with wins over Villanova and Pitt, and have now shown how bad they can be as well. And that's pretty much their outlook for the season as well, they could easily be an elite 8 team or a team that gets bounced in the first round. Or, hell, and NIT team. That's what I predicted for them going into the season so let's go for that.
2. Kansas State Wildcats. Honestly I thought the Wildcats were a bit overrated coming into this year, but I didn't say too much because I though tthey were overrated last year and then they made the elite 8 so I figured maybe I was wrong. But now if you look at their results this year it's kind meh. Their only two notable wins - over Virginia Tech and Gonzaga - both look worse than they did at the time because both of those teams are struggling, and getting blown out by Florida on Saturday certainly doesn't help things. So it is now a fact - Kansas State sucks. Also I'm pretty sure their coach could get you wacked with one phone call.
3. Illinois Fighting Illini. Well, it's safe to say Ohio State is now the class of the Big 10, and it's not even close (although I'm sure Michigan State will get there by March). After building a nice resume thus far with the only blemish that overtime loss to Texas in New York, the Illini froze up and locked up versus Illinois-Chicago and Paul Carter this weekend, losing 57-54 in a game where the final 15 seconds saw them miss three shots and turn the ball over twice. I still don't trust McCamey, and this is exactly why. I'm sorry, he's just not really a point guard. He's just not. I know he has a ton of assists but he's not a point guard. This team has first round NCAA loss written all over it.
4. Josh Selby. It's a bit of a stretch to say he sucks considering he was a freshman playing in his first ever game and scored 21 points including the game-winning three pointer, but there are some warning signs here. First off, he's a point guard but finished with just 1 assist compared to four turnovers. Secondly, he pushes Elijah Johnson (5 points, 2.5 assists vs. just 1.4 TOs in 15 minutes per game) to the end of the bench, as well as Travis Releford (better than a 2-1 assist to TO ratio). All that helped lead the Jayhawks to a game against USC where they registered just 13 assists versus 12 turnovers for a team that was averaging 20 vs. 13 going into the game. It could just be a bad game for the team, or it could just that it takes some time to gel and get used to playing with a brand new teammate. Or, it could be that one of the best team's in the country, one whose strength was their balance and ball movement, just brought in a ball sync. We shall see.
5. Big Ten naming controversy. Seriously? So the Big Ten announces they are going to name the divisions the Leaders and Legends, people freak out, and now they might change the names? I don't know what's more pathetic, the Big Ten for rolling over and possibly changing the names less than a week after they were announced or the pathetic souls out there who actually care about something as meaningless as division names so, so much that it drives them to write letters and bitch to such a magnitude that it gets the Big Ten to actually reconsider. So sad. It's division names, people. God.
And with the teams in each division already set, how much better are you really going to get? You can't do geographic names, no matter how many national talk show hosts who don't have a clue what's going on keep saying it, and you can't do anything cute like "Great Lakes" and "Heartland" because, again, morons, the team groupings are already set. So good luck coming up with anything better than Leaders and Legends, because it doesn't matter what they do, because the guys who drive their truck in team colors with two flags flying out the window and the personalized "OSU4EVA" license plates are going to send their emails from the library (I assume they can't afford computers) and write their letters (most likely in crayon) and bitch because for some sad, inexplicable, pathetic reason, what the Big Ten names it's divisions is really, really fucking important.
Last thing I want to say now that I'm all riled up that I am not a fan of this Nishioka signing. I can't exactly hate it, because it's a nice cheapish investment, but I would rather have JJ Hardy. And since the choice was basically Hardy/Nishioka vs. Nishioka/Casilla, this move will be evaluated on a Casilla vs. Hardy basis, so it doesn't quite matter as much that Nishi is going to probably end up a mediocre fielding slap hitter. Just like Casilla. God what an awesome middle infield combo. It's like somebody finally answered my prayers and cloned Nick Punto and let the Twins have both of them as a reward for their constant scrappiness and fundamentalsitude. $20 says Nishi is a slide into firster.
1. On the ride home I sat next to this young woman probably in her early twenties. Throughout the entire three and a half hour flight she didn't nap. She also didn't read. She didn't have a computer. She didn't do a crossword or sudoku book. She declined a drink when they came by to offer a complimentary beverage. She never went to the bathroom. She never spoke to anyone. No, she did nothing except stare straight ahead and blink for 3 and a half hours. Absolutely bizarre and kind of creepy. She's either a genius who needs nothing more than her brain to be entertained, or dumb as hell with an empty head. I have my suspicions.
2. If you are ever in California you absolutely have to check out In-and-Out Burger. Absolutely the best burger ever, excellent fries, and it's all at a near fast-food (but it's not fast food) pace. Get yourself a double-double and order it animal style. You won't regret it. So freaking good. Anyway, on to the real stuff.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. UCLA Bruins. Still not exactly sure what to make of the Pac-10, and I'm still pretty sure they mostly suck, but UCLA picked up a huge win this weekend knocking off BYU (previously undefeated) in Anaheim at the Wooden Classic. They won by forcing the Cougars into 19 turnovers, 7 by Jimmer Fredette, and got a huge game out of Reeves Nelson, who looks like a nerd but plays like white jesus. This win, along with the Bruins hanging with Kansas right to the wire earlier this year, shows that the Bruins have the capability to compete with Washington and Arizona at the top of this conference. They also have the capability to get swept by the Oregon schools. Buyer beware.
2. San Diego State Aztecs. It's not so much that they got a big win this week, but they're still undefeated (now 12-0) and the way they dismantled Santa Barbara by 26 - the same Gauchos team that just beat UNLV and will likely win the Big West - I'm just beyond impressed right now. They're extremely balanced, have a great mix of inside/outside scoring, and are very efficient on both ends of the court. About their only weakness is they don't have a true point guard who plays much, but everyone can handle the ball so they'll probably be ok there. I don't know what odds you'd find at your favorite online betting site, but I can still find 40-1 on them to win the NCAA Championship on mine. I recommend you jump on it.
3. Gonzaga Bulldogs. About time. After whiffing on every opportunity to get a quality win - they lost versus San Diego State, Kansas State, Illinois, Washington State, and Notre Dame - they finally got something to show off in March with a big win over Baylor in Dallas, a semi-road game. Couple this with their win over Marquette, and the Zags are suddenly looking to be in decent shape after being a bit of a concern even last week. They play Xavier, UL-Lafayette, Oklahoma State, and Wake Forest before starting WCC play. ULL and Wake should be gimmes, so if they can split the Xavier/OSU games (and they should, and a sweep is probably likely since both are in Spokane) that would put them at 9-6 with three quality wins going into conference games. With that schedule and those wins they would probably just have to go 11-3 or even 10-4 to get an at-large. Shouldn't be an issue.
4. Kevin Love. I don't write a lot of NBA here - because it sucks until the playoffs - but just how freaking sweet is K-Love? His point/rebs by game this week were: 13 & 14, 23 & 16, 19 & 17, and 43 & 17. Freaking 43 and 17. Wow. He's a 40% 3-point shooter, a decent offensive player inside the paint, and the best rebounder the NBA has seen since Rodman. Other than your physical tools (which Love is lacking in, as was Rodman) there are two things that can make you an elite level rebounder - an understanding of where the ball is likely to go (positioning) and a hunger to be the one who gets the ball (effort). Love has both in spades, and has used those tools to. I don't know about you, but I'd probably find somewhere to do some basketball betting and just take the over on Love's rebounds in every single game.
5. Kansas City Royals. If you're going to trade an ace this is how you do it. They shipped Zack Greinke and his anti-anxiety medication over to Milwaukee in return for SPs Jeremy Jeffress and Jake Odorizzi, SS Alcides Escobar, and CF Lorenzo Cain. The Royals are thought to have one of the, if not the, best farm systems in the league right now, and they just got better. Perusing some lists, the two starting pitchers they just got are generally ranked in the top 3 in the Brewers' system, Escobar is thought to be a future star at SS even if he didn't exactly have a great first season last year, and Cain is a "toolsy" center fielder of the future type of player. In short, it was a haul for a team that is already loaded for the future. Twins better win now, because starting in about 2013 the Royals' dynasty is ON. (NOTE: Milwaukee also better win now, because between this trade and the Lawrie for Marcum trade they have essentially killed their future).
WHO SUCKED
1. Tennessee Volunteers. There were quite a few teams who had bad losses this week, but nobody can touch the disaster that was the Vols. Two games this week - vs. Oakland and @ Charlotte - and two losses. the Oakland game is rough, because although the Golden Grizzlies are an NCAA caliber team, they've been unable to crab a real impressive win, losing to West Virginia, Illinois, Michigan State, and Purdue. Then the Charlotte loss...oof. The 49ers are, frankly, pretty awful, coming into the game at 4-6 with losses to Gardner-Webb and East Carolina, and they just kicked Shamari Spears, their leading scorer, off the team. Tennessee has shown how good they can be with wins over Villanova and Pitt, and have now shown how bad they can be as well. And that's pretty much their outlook for the season as well, they could easily be an elite 8 team or a team that gets bounced in the first round. Or, hell, and NIT team. That's what I predicted for them going into the season so let's go for that.
2. Kansas State Wildcats. Honestly I thought the Wildcats were a bit overrated coming into this year, but I didn't say too much because I though tthey were overrated last year and then they made the elite 8 so I figured maybe I was wrong. But now if you look at their results this year it's kind meh. Their only two notable wins - over Virginia Tech and Gonzaga - both look worse than they did at the time because both of those teams are struggling, and getting blown out by Florida on Saturday certainly doesn't help things. So it is now a fact - Kansas State sucks. Also I'm pretty sure their coach could get you wacked with one phone call.
3. Illinois Fighting Illini. Well, it's safe to say Ohio State is now the class of the Big 10, and it's not even close (although I'm sure Michigan State will get there by March). After building a nice resume thus far with the only blemish that overtime loss to Texas in New York, the Illini froze up and locked up versus Illinois-Chicago and Paul Carter this weekend, losing 57-54 in a game where the final 15 seconds saw them miss three shots and turn the ball over twice. I still don't trust McCamey, and this is exactly why. I'm sorry, he's just not really a point guard. He's just not. I know he has a ton of assists but he's not a point guard. This team has first round NCAA loss written all over it.
4. Josh Selby. It's a bit of a stretch to say he sucks considering he was a freshman playing in his first ever game and scored 21 points including the game-winning three pointer, but there are some warning signs here. First off, he's a point guard but finished with just 1 assist compared to four turnovers. Secondly, he pushes Elijah Johnson (5 points, 2.5 assists vs. just 1.4 TOs in 15 minutes per game) to the end of the bench, as well as Travis Releford (better than a 2-1 assist to TO ratio). All that helped lead the Jayhawks to a game against USC where they registered just 13 assists versus 12 turnovers for a team that was averaging 20 vs. 13 going into the game. It could just be a bad game for the team, or it could just that it takes some time to gel and get used to playing with a brand new teammate. Or, it could be that one of the best team's in the country, one whose strength was their balance and ball movement, just brought in a ball sync. We shall see.
5. Big Ten naming controversy. Seriously? So the Big Ten announces they are going to name the divisions the Leaders and Legends, people freak out, and now they might change the names? I don't know what's more pathetic, the Big Ten for rolling over and possibly changing the names less than a week after they were announced or the pathetic souls out there who actually care about something as meaningless as division names so, so much that it drives them to write letters and bitch to such a magnitude that it gets the Big Ten to actually reconsider. So sad. It's division names, people. God.
And with the teams in each division already set, how much better are you really going to get? You can't do geographic names, no matter how many national talk show hosts who don't have a clue what's going on keep saying it, and you can't do anything cute like "Great Lakes" and "Heartland" because, again, morons, the team groupings are already set. So good luck coming up with anything better than Leaders and Legends, because it doesn't matter what they do, because the guys who drive their truck in team colors with two flags flying out the window and the personalized "OSU4EVA" license plates are going to send their emails from the library (I assume they can't afford computers) and write their letters (most likely in crayon) and bitch because for some sad, inexplicable, pathetic reason, what the Big Ten names it's divisions is really, really fucking important.
Last thing I want to say now that I'm all riled up that I am not a fan of this Nishioka signing. I can't exactly hate it, because it's a nice cheapish investment, but I would rather have JJ Hardy. And since the choice was basically Hardy/Nishioka vs. Nishioka/Casilla, this move will be evaluated on a Casilla vs. Hardy basis, so it doesn't quite matter as much that Nishi is going to probably end up a mediocre fielding slap hitter. Just like Casilla. God what an awesome middle infield combo. It's like somebody finally answered my prayers and cloned Nick Punto and let the Twins have both of them as a reward for their constant scrappiness and fundamentalsitude. $20 says Nishi is a slide into firster.
Monday, December 6, 2010
Week in Review - 12.06.2010
Back by popular demand - the week in review. I would have had this up for your Monday morning consumption, however Comcast decided to make sure nobody in the midwest who uses their service was able to access the internet. I was caught in their evil web of lies and evil. Luckily, we're back, so let's go.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Trevor Mbakwe. I'm starting to think calling him Reign Man II was maybe the most accurate thing I've ever done. Freakishly athletic? Check. Strong dunker? Check. Incredible rebounder? Check. Unable to score from further than 8 feet from the rim? Check. Commits dumb fouls? Check. Seriously, all he needs is a bunch of kids by different ladies and a bunch less IQ points and he'd be Shawn Kemp, and I mean that as a total compliment because Kemp was one of my all-time favorites. Really maybe the lone bright spot in a pretty crappy week for your favorite team, Mbakwe put up 18 and 11 against Virginia, and nearly brought the Gophers back in that game, and then followed it up with 12 and 16 vs. Cornell. It will be interesting to see how he fares against the other Big Ten bigs, but so far he looks like he's on a whole different level out there - something the Gophers haven't seen at PF since......Courtney James, I guess?
2. LaceDarius Dunn. The Baylor star guard has simply been on fire since being cleared on a domestic assault charge that was clearly a case of either mistaken identity or someone trying to frame him. In his three games back he's scored 24, 20, and 24 and averaged 4.3 rebound and 3.3 assists to go along with that while shooting 53% from the floor and going 16-31 from three, including 6-12 in Thursday's win over Arizona State. The Bears are looking good with Lace looking primed for a big year, stud recruit Perry Jones living up to the hype, and the guys the needed to step up (A.J. Walton, Quincy Acy) have played well. They've had a candy soft schedule so far, but keep an eye open for their December 18th game against Gonzaga, that one should give an idea of just how good Baylor can be. They're still 30-1 to win the whole thing. I suggest you grab some of that action now.
3. Jon Leuer. Of all the Minnesota high school players who the Gophers have lost out on, Leuer might end up hurting the most. He joins a nice list of high school greats who spurned Dan Monson and found success elsewhere (Troy Bell, Cole Aldrich, Cory Johnson, Ryan Amoroso, Kammron Taylor, Lawrence McKenzie (initially), and Isaiah Dahlman (just kidding) to name a few) but if his stats so far this year are any indication Leuer might be the best of the bunch. He dominated in both games this week, both in the big win over NC State (22 pts, 11 rebs, 2 stls, 2 blks, 2 assists) and in the easy win over South Dakota (29 pts, 9 rebs, 4 blks, 2 steals, 2 assists), and his overall numbers are certainly Big Ten POY worthy (20/8/2/1/2 with 50% shooting). Pretty depressing. He's like Mike Bauer if he actually kept improving instead of falling in love with the three-pointer and ignoring everything else.
4. North Carolina Tar Heels. I wouldn't exactly say they're going to be alright, but the win over Kentucky shows they can at least beat a quality, if overrated, team. Tyler Zeller looks like an absolute player and he absolutely dominated the Wildcats, putting up 27 points (on 8-13 shooting), 11 boards, and 5 blocks and teamed with John Henson to block 8 shots and force Terrence Jones, a super-stud as a freshman so far this, into 3-17 shooting, basically confusing him, not allowing him to get any clean looks in the paint, and basically winning the game for the Heels because their guards and Barnes are still meh. I don't know if they can get into the NCAA Tournament, but every quality win they can get helps the Gophers' chances so let's go Heels.
5. San Diego State Aztecs. A couple of very solid wins this week for SDSU, who continue to cruise. This week they played a couple of other quality mid-majors - St. Mary's and Wichita State - and had zero problems. They beat both teams by 14, and now sit and 8-0 with a quality win over Gonzaga on their resume already. They've got a pretty easy road until they hit Mountain West play, and the MWC should be strong enough this year that SDSU should cruise to a bid as long as they don't complete crash and burn, and there's no reason to suspect that they might. They have enough balance (6 guys score at least 8 per game) to handle a bad night from anybody, and the star power in Kawhi Leonard to carry them far in March. Consider them a solid sleeper. And I have them at 100-1. Holla.
WHO SUCKED
1. Minnesota Gophers Perimeter Defense. Once is a fluke, twice is a problem, and a season-long issue is a major major problem that is going to kill this team at some point. Virginia shot 10-13 from behind the arc and Cornell followed that up going 14-33, and the Gophers are now allowing their opponents to shoot 38.8% from three for the season, which ranks 296th in the country and dead last in the Big Ten. Making the alarm bells right a wee bit harder is the fact that Northwestern, Michigan State, and Illinois all rank in the top 25 in three-point shooting in the country, and every Big Ten team outside of Penn State, Iowa, and Michigan shoot better than the D-I average. So basically we're looking at two choices - learn how to defend the perimeter, whether through scheme, hard work, smarter decisions, or some combination, or get shredded all season long. Not exactly Sophie's Choice here. And if Tubby can't fix this, we have to start questioning him a bit, don't we?
2. The Pac 10. USC did manage to beat Texas on Sunday, but prior to that the Pac-10 was cruising towards a second straight year of terribleness. Just this week USC lost to TCU, Oregon State lost to Utah Valley (and got crushed by Colorado), and UCLA lost to Montana - and you can find a handful of games just like that for the conference each and every week. Washington is looking like a Final Four type team and Arizona looks solid, but that's pretty much it. UCLA and Washington State each have a shot at a bid depending on how things go, but it's very likely we're looking at just two tournament teams here.
3. Atlantic 10. If you pay way too much attention to this blog you know I probably like the A-10 a little bit more than I really should (with the exception of Dayton, which is full of whiny poser pansies), so it is with great pain I must announce that the A-10 is most certainly down this year. There were supposed to be four very strong teams (Xavier, Dayton, Richmond, and Temple) along with a handful of sleeper candidates (St. Louis, Charlotte, and Rhode Island) - unfortunately it's not quite looking that way. Just this week, St. Louis got smoked by Portland, Charlotte was downed by East Carolina, Xavier got rolled by Miami (OH), East Tennessee State came into Dayton and beat the Flyers, and Richmond, the one team that's looking good so far, lost to Old Dominion. With the exception of the ODU game those are all bad, bad losses. I'm thinking two bids might be the best case scenario here. Shame. And it would be a double shame if one of them went to Dayton.
4. Virginia Tech Hokies. The past two years have ended the same way for the Hokies: Coach Seth Greenberg whining and bitching because Va Tech didn't get an NCAA tournament bid despite a good conference season because they would schedule an insanely weak non-conference slate. This year they finally scheduled up, but that doesn't help if you can't win, and they can't win. So far they've lost to Kansas State, UNLV, Purdue, and Virginia - the last two this week alone - and are now just 4-4 with only a win over Oklahoma State to show for their efforts. They still have shots coming up against Penn State and Mississippi State, but man, they better do something. Special shout-out to Hokie star Malcolm Delaney for shooting 2-18 (TWO FOR EIGHTEEN!!lol) and committing the fourth of his turnovers on the final play of the game to lose the game. Bravo.
5. North Carolina State Wolfpack. Not so much for their loss to Syracuse on Saturday, because the Orange are a very good team and NC State hung tough until the end, but for their embarrassing destruction by Wisconsin in their Big-10/ACC Challenge match-up. They lost by 39, shot 32% while allowing 50% from Wisconsin, were out-rebounded 40-26, turned it over 13 times to just 9 assists, and forced just six turnovers. In short, a total disaster. They are certainly a talented team, but still very young, so a game like this was probably inevitable, but they need to start grabbing some quality wins here in order to justify my faith in them. They have a game coming up in a couple weeks against Arizona. Better win that one.
Honorable mention to Old Dominion, who were basically following a perfect blueprint on how to get an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament as a mid-major until this weekend when they lost to Delaware in their conference opener. The Fightin' Blue Hens are expected to be a factor in the CAA race or any race, really, so this loss is going to hurt. ODU has probably done enough to buy themselves some breathing room, but this loss cuts that cushion way, way down. Way to go, jerks!
Also, can we please calm down about Michael Jordan's kid? Thanks.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Trevor Mbakwe. I'm starting to think calling him Reign Man II was maybe the most accurate thing I've ever done. Freakishly athletic? Check. Strong dunker? Check. Incredible rebounder? Check. Unable to score from further than 8 feet from the rim? Check. Commits dumb fouls? Check. Seriously, all he needs is a bunch of kids by different ladies and a bunch less IQ points and he'd be Shawn Kemp, and I mean that as a total compliment because Kemp was one of my all-time favorites. Really maybe the lone bright spot in a pretty crappy week for your favorite team, Mbakwe put up 18 and 11 against Virginia, and nearly brought the Gophers back in that game, and then followed it up with 12 and 16 vs. Cornell. It will be interesting to see how he fares against the other Big Ten bigs, but so far he looks like he's on a whole different level out there - something the Gophers haven't seen at PF since......Courtney James, I guess?
2. LaceDarius Dunn. The Baylor star guard has simply been on fire since being cleared on a domestic assault charge that was clearly a case of either mistaken identity or someone trying to frame him. In his three games back he's scored 24, 20, and 24 and averaged 4.3 rebound and 3.3 assists to go along with that while shooting 53% from the floor and going 16-31 from three, including 6-12 in Thursday's win over Arizona State. The Bears are looking good with Lace looking primed for a big year, stud recruit Perry Jones living up to the hype, and the guys the needed to step up (A.J. Walton, Quincy Acy) have played well. They've had a candy soft schedule so far, but keep an eye open for their December 18th game against Gonzaga, that one should give an idea of just how good Baylor can be. They're still 30-1 to win the whole thing. I suggest you grab some of that action now.
3. Jon Leuer. Of all the Minnesota high school players who the Gophers have lost out on, Leuer might end up hurting the most. He joins a nice list of high school greats who spurned Dan Monson and found success elsewhere (Troy Bell, Cole Aldrich, Cory Johnson, Ryan Amoroso, Kammron Taylor, Lawrence McKenzie (initially), and Isaiah Dahlman (just kidding) to name a few) but if his stats so far this year are any indication Leuer might be the best of the bunch. He dominated in both games this week, both in the big win over NC State (22 pts, 11 rebs, 2 stls, 2 blks, 2 assists) and in the easy win over South Dakota (29 pts, 9 rebs, 4 blks, 2 steals, 2 assists), and his overall numbers are certainly Big Ten POY worthy (20/8/2/1/2 with 50% shooting). Pretty depressing. He's like Mike Bauer if he actually kept improving instead of falling in love with the three-pointer and ignoring everything else.
4. North Carolina Tar Heels. I wouldn't exactly say they're going to be alright, but the win over Kentucky shows they can at least beat a quality, if overrated, team. Tyler Zeller looks like an absolute player and he absolutely dominated the Wildcats, putting up 27 points (on 8-13 shooting), 11 boards, and 5 blocks and teamed with John Henson to block 8 shots and force Terrence Jones, a super-stud as a freshman so far this, into 3-17 shooting, basically confusing him, not allowing him to get any clean looks in the paint, and basically winning the game for the Heels because their guards and Barnes are still meh. I don't know if they can get into the NCAA Tournament, but every quality win they can get helps the Gophers' chances so let's go Heels.
5. San Diego State Aztecs. A couple of very solid wins this week for SDSU, who continue to cruise. This week they played a couple of other quality mid-majors - St. Mary's and Wichita State - and had zero problems. They beat both teams by 14, and now sit and 8-0 with a quality win over Gonzaga on their resume already. They've got a pretty easy road until they hit Mountain West play, and the MWC should be strong enough this year that SDSU should cruise to a bid as long as they don't complete crash and burn, and there's no reason to suspect that they might. They have enough balance (6 guys score at least 8 per game) to handle a bad night from anybody, and the star power in Kawhi Leonard to carry them far in March. Consider them a solid sleeper. And I have them at 100-1. Holla.
WHO SUCKED
1. Minnesota Gophers Perimeter Defense. Once is a fluke, twice is a problem, and a season-long issue is a major major problem that is going to kill this team at some point. Virginia shot 10-13 from behind the arc and Cornell followed that up going 14-33, and the Gophers are now allowing their opponents to shoot 38.8% from three for the season, which ranks 296th in the country and dead last in the Big Ten. Making the alarm bells right a wee bit harder is the fact that Northwestern, Michigan State, and Illinois all rank in the top 25 in three-point shooting in the country, and every Big Ten team outside of Penn State, Iowa, and Michigan shoot better than the D-I average. So basically we're looking at two choices - learn how to defend the perimeter, whether through scheme, hard work, smarter decisions, or some combination, or get shredded all season long. Not exactly Sophie's Choice here. And if Tubby can't fix this, we have to start questioning him a bit, don't we?
2. The Pac 10. USC did manage to beat Texas on Sunday, but prior to that the Pac-10 was cruising towards a second straight year of terribleness. Just this week USC lost to TCU, Oregon State lost to Utah Valley (and got crushed by Colorado), and UCLA lost to Montana - and you can find a handful of games just like that for the conference each and every week. Washington is looking like a Final Four type team and Arizona looks solid, but that's pretty much it. UCLA and Washington State each have a shot at a bid depending on how things go, but it's very likely we're looking at just two tournament teams here.
3. Atlantic 10. If you pay way too much attention to this blog you know I probably like the A-10 a little bit more than I really should (with the exception of Dayton, which is full of whiny poser pansies), so it is with great pain I must announce that the A-10 is most certainly down this year. There were supposed to be four very strong teams (Xavier, Dayton, Richmond, and Temple) along with a handful of sleeper candidates (St. Louis, Charlotte, and Rhode Island) - unfortunately it's not quite looking that way. Just this week, St. Louis got smoked by Portland, Charlotte was downed by East Carolina, Xavier got rolled by Miami (OH), East Tennessee State came into Dayton and beat the Flyers, and Richmond, the one team that's looking good so far, lost to Old Dominion. With the exception of the ODU game those are all bad, bad losses. I'm thinking two bids might be the best case scenario here. Shame. And it would be a double shame if one of them went to Dayton.
4. Virginia Tech Hokies. The past two years have ended the same way for the Hokies: Coach Seth Greenberg whining and bitching because Va Tech didn't get an NCAA tournament bid despite a good conference season because they would schedule an insanely weak non-conference slate. This year they finally scheduled up, but that doesn't help if you can't win, and they can't win. So far they've lost to Kansas State, UNLV, Purdue, and Virginia - the last two this week alone - and are now just 4-4 with only a win over Oklahoma State to show for their efforts. They still have shots coming up against Penn State and Mississippi State, but man, they better do something. Special shout-out to Hokie star Malcolm Delaney for shooting 2-18 (TWO FOR EIGHTEEN!!lol) and committing the fourth of his turnovers on the final play of the game to lose the game. Bravo.
5. North Carolina State Wolfpack. Not so much for their loss to Syracuse on Saturday, because the Orange are a very good team and NC State hung tough until the end, but for their embarrassing destruction by Wisconsin in their Big-10/ACC Challenge match-up. They lost by 39, shot 32% while allowing 50% from Wisconsin, were out-rebounded 40-26, turned it over 13 times to just 9 assists, and forced just six turnovers. In short, a total disaster. They are certainly a talented team, but still very young, so a game like this was probably inevitable, but they need to start grabbing some quality wins here in order to justify my faith in them. They have a game coming up in a couple weeks against Arizona. Better win that one.
Honorable mention to Old Dominion, who were basically following a perfect blueprint on how to get an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament as a mid-major until this weekend when they lost to Delaware in their conference opener. The Fightin' Blue Hens are expected to be a factor in the CAA race or any race, really, so this loss is going to hurt. ODU has probably done enough to buy themselves some breathing room, but this loss cuts that cushion way, way down. Way to go, jerks!
Also, can we please calm down about Michael Jordan's kid? Thanks.
Thursday, October 28, 2010
Mountain West College Basketball 2010 Preview
1. San Diego State Aztecs. I don't want to oversell a Mountain West team, because then I'd end up looking like some kind of jackass who pimps Dayton as a dynasty, but this Aztec team is loaded, and if you're looking for a final four sleeper from a non-BCS conference, look no further. Kawhi Leonard is a complete stud, a potential NBA draft pick, and is top five amongst returnees in the conference in points, rebounds and steals and top 20 in blocks, assists, and field goal percentage. Mean amongst boys, you might say, and he has his whole posse coming back with him. You got his buddies down low in Malcolm Thomas, a double-digit scorer who was top 5 in rebounding, blocks, and FG% last year, and Billy White, another double-digit scorer who led the league in FG percentage at 59%. And you get your starting back court back in double-figure scorer D.J. Gay (ha ha) and Chase Tapley. Really the only thing they need is a true point guard (Gay is more of a combo) and a shooter. Well, they signed a top point guard prospect in LaBradford Franklin, so really all they need is a shooter - if they need anything at all. In case you can't tell, I'm high on SDSU this year. Got 'em at 100-1, baby. We goin' sizzla'.
2. BYU Cougars. Jimmer is back, and Jimmer is Jimmer, but he unfortunately loses his boy Tyler Haws to his weird mormon mission, what with the strange underwear and the weird supplementary bible works. That's not to say Jimmer is on his own, because his third little buddy in the back court, Jackson Emery, is back, as is Noah Hartsock to man the lane. The losses will hurt (along with Haws the Cougars also lose do-everything forward Jonathan Tavernari and starting center Chris Miles), but there is enough talent surrounding Jimmer that BYU should be dancing again this year, if dancing was allowed by the Mormon religion. And by the way, Jimmer is totally a Utah/Mormon name. My wife was raised mormon, and her family is bonkers. She has cousins who named their kids Londyn, Brooklyn, Okland, Dagon, Presley, Daxton, Lindy, Maximus, and Braden. I swear to god I'm not kidding.
3. UNLV Runnin' Rebels. The Rebels looked like the were going to be in great shape, getting all five starters back from last year's NCAA Tournament team, but then Tre'Von Willis choked some chick (that's frowned upon), Matt Shaw was booted after failing a drug test, and Kendall Wallace tore his ACL and is out for the year. Ouch. Luckily (for the team and Willis, not so much for the girl) Willis is only going to miss three games, and he'll be joined by Chace Stanback and Oscar Bellfield, as well as Derrick Jasper assuming he's back from his own knee injury. That's enough to be near the top in the MWC but bad luck and dumb choices knock them down from loaded to merely good.
4. New Mexico Lobos. Usually when a program like New Mexico loses a couple of guys like Darington Hobson and Roman Martinez from a team that went 30-5 and reached the second round of the NCAA Tournament you can count on a down period to follow. Luckily for Lobo fans, Steve Alford has them looking like the kind of team where a letdown still means an NCAA bid. Stepping in for those two are Drew Gordon, the transfer from UCLA who played well in Westwood before heading to the desert, and Alex Kirk (who the Gophers were looking at at one point) who is the one of only two Rivals Top 150 recruit coming to the MWC (he's #116, the other is BYU's Kyle Collinsworth at #134). It's not an even trade, of course, because Martinez and Hobson were do-it-all wings while Gordon and Kirk are post players, but it's the kind of influx of talent that will help, along with returning point guard Dairese Gary - particularly if Gordon has his head on straight. Don't forget, he was a top 50 player as a freshman, and was averaging double-figures in points and 2 blocks per game last year. He's still got the talent to be a star.
5. Colorado State Rams. Tim Miles has done a hell of a job, Travis Busch signing notwithstanding (and by the way, I heard he likes to hang out by himself in bars near the campus on Saturday mornings - true story), and he has the Rams solidly turned around from "shitbox" to "mediocre." I don't know that they can turn the corner just yet, but there is some talent here. Andy Ogide returns to man the paint for the Rams and he was top five in the league in both rebounding and field goal percentage, and Dorian Green had a very nice freshman season at point for CSU last year, averaging 12 points and 3 assists per game. And don't forget this is where one-time Gopher PF target Chad Calcaterra landed. He'll have a chance to contribute right away, but this team isn't quite ready to compete for an NCAA berth yet. If only they had Travis Busch for one more year, that kind of hustle cures all ills.
6. Wyoming Cowboys. The success (it's a relative term) of the Cowboys' season this year pretty much rests on the health of Afam Mujoeke's knee. Two seasons ago Mujoeke won the MWC Freshman of the Year award, and then last year he was having a fine season averaging 17 points per game before he blew out his patella tendon, which sounds pretty terrible. If he's back at full strength he'll join sophomore Desmar Jackson to give the Cowboys a nice one-two scoring punch, and make them viable enough that they will at least threaten to upset a team or two. If he's not all the way back, it's going to be a long year in Laramie. Or longer, at least. I mean, I assume it's always a long year in Wyoming, what with all the long hours baling hay and milking cows before class and what not.
7. Utah Utes. This will be the last season for the Utes in the Mountain West, and it's probably about time to leave before they tarnish their legacy, because after being the dominant force in the conference since it's inception in 1999, winning five of the first seven league titles, they've fallen off, finishing better than 5th just once in the last five seasons and gaining just one NCAA berth. That probably won't get much better this year. Both of last year's two leading scorers are transferring (Carlon Brown to Colorado, Marshall Henderson to Texas Tech), and a host of bench fodder is leaving as well (missions and what have you) and the Utes will have a whole slew of new faces. If some of those new guys turn out to be good guards Utah could finish higher than this because they do have a lot of size in 7-3 David Foster and 7-0 Jason Washburn, both of whom finished in the top five in blocked shots in the MWC with Foster finishing fourth nationally. So they're big. And probably slow since I assume the whole team is white.
8. TCU Horned Frogs. Well if we want to start with something nice, let's talk about TCU's back court because it's actually quite solid. Ronnie Moss is an excellent all-around player who led the team in scoring (14.9 per game) and assists (5.9 per game, good for 1st in the conference and 9th nationally) and also chipped in with more than 3 rebounds and almost a steal per game. He's not exactly a wizard with the jump shot (just 40% shooting last year) and he turns it over way too much (3.8 per game) but still - he's a heck of a player. Joining him in the back court this year will be Hank Thorns, a transfer from Virginia Tech who had some limited success in his two years as a Hokie, hampered only by the fact that he can't shoot (30% from the field as a sophomore). And speaking of can't shoot the third guard and second leading returning scorer, Greg Hill, shot just 41% last year, which actually makes him the marksman of the group. So the guards are good but they can't shoot. Now let me tell you all the good things about their front court players: at least they aren't Air Force.
9. Air Force Falcons. Remember when Air Force was kind of good for a minute there, using that slower-than-a-Vickers-Gunbus-offense? They actually made the tournament in 2004 and 2006, but things have fallen off faster than Maverick after Goose died, and the Falcons have won just won conference game combined the last two seasons - lost that lovin' feeling indeed. I'd love to sit here and make Top Gun/Fighter Jet jokes for another few sentences, but researching the Falcons makes me feel like Cougar after getting missile locked, and there's no Viper to be my wingman. Great Balls of Fire!!
4. New Mexico Lobos. Usually when a program like New Mexico loses a couple of guys like Darington Hobson and Roman Martinez from a team that went 30-5 and reached the second round of the NCAA Tournament you can count on a down period to follow. Luckily for Lobo fans, Steve Alford has them looking like the kind of team where a letdown still means an NCAA bid. Stepping in for those two are Drew Gordon, the transfer from UCLA who played well in Westwood before heading to the desert, and Alex Kirk (who the Gophers were looking at at one point) who is the one of only two Rivals Top 150 recruit coming to the MWC (he's #116, the other is BYU's Kyle Collinsworth at #134). It's not an even trade, of course, because Martinez and Hobson were do-it-all wings while Gordon and Kirk are post players, but it's the kind of influx of talent that will help, along with returning point guard Dairese Gary - particularly if Gordon has his head on straight. Don't forget, he was a top 50 player as a freshman, and was averaging double-figures in points and 2 blocks per game last year. He's still got the talent to be a star.
6. Wyoming Cowboys. The success (it's a relative term) of the Cowboys' season this year pretty much rests on the health of Afam Mujoeke's knee. Two seasons ago Mujoeke won the MWC Freshman of the Year award, and then last year he was having a fine season averaging 17 points per game before he blew out his patella tendon, which sounds pretty terrible. If he's back at full strength he'll join sophomore Desmar Jackson to give the Cowboys a nice one-two scoring punch, and make them viable enough that they will at least threaten to upset a team or two. If he's not all the way back, it's going to be a long year in Laramie. Or longer, at least. I mean, I assume it's always a long year in Wyoming, what with all the long hours baling hay and milking cows before class and what not.
Monday, March 15, 2010
Week in Review - 3/15/2010
Whew. Were you like me and had your heart drop when Florida popped up on the screen? Terrifying, but ultimately the committee made the right choices and the Gophers were rewarded for an incredible last week of ball. I like the matchup quite a bit, too. Not necessarily because I think the Gophers will have an easy time with Xavier or anything, but mainly because I think that region is pretty weak. If they can get by the Musketeers, they get the weakest three seed in the second round. They also caught a pretty big break by playing in Milwaukee, where they should have a sizable advantage in fans.
One thing is for sure, it's exciting, and the season no longer goes down as a failure. I'll be back with a true preview before I head out to Chicago with Snacks and Snake, but for now I'm predicting a Gopher win.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Colt Iverson. How did this happen? And I'm not even talking numbers, although basically scoring double his season average in every game is impressive, but his game was completely unrecognizable and I mean that in a good way. His moves were suddenly polished, and he had a lot of them. He now suddenly has a drop step. He's using shot fakes beautifully and looks like Kevin McHale down there. He can score with either hand. I have no idea what is going on here. I thought his upside was going to be like a Greg Ostertag rebounder/enforcer type who is most valuable for setting picks and his five fouls per game, but suddenly things have gotten really interesting. If this is for real, the Gophers are suddenly a dangerous team. Please let this be for real - like the Loch Ness Monster - and not some kind of false production - like the Moon Landing.
2. San Diego State. If you're on the bubble going into your conference tournament there is one surefire way to make sure you get a bid - win the whole thing, and that's what the Aztecs did, winning the MWC tournament, including wins over UNLV and New Mexico. SDSU is a dangerous team, and they went 2-1 against New Mexico this year with the loss being by just two points. Drawing Tennessee is always a mystery since they are the kind of team who could either flame out early or go on a deep run, but I'm calling an Aztec upset in the first round.
3. Duke. It's always tough to praise Duke, but they did what a lot of other regular season conference champions couldn't manage and they went out and won their conference tournament. They got lucky a bit in that Maryland got knocked out early by Georgia Tech, but winning the ACC is still winning the ACC. As a bonus, they picked up the fourth #1 seed and were somehow placed in the easiest region in the history of college basketball. But, since they're Duke, I'm sure they'll still screw it up somehow.
4. Ohio. Every year some middling team from a smaller conference gets hot and makes a run, winning their conference tournament and setting themselves up to get their doors blown off in the first round. This year, that honor goes to the Ohio Bobcats for winning the MAC, with Georgetown being the doors-blow-offer. Kent State or Akron would have been a dangerous foe, but they couldn't get it done so now we're saddled with the crappy Bobcats. And how tough is that region? The top five seeds are all legit Final Four contenders, including probably the best #1 and best #2. It should end up playing pretty close to form as I only see one real first round upset possibility, but whoever ends up coming out of there is really going to have to earn it.
5. Second-Tier basketball tournaments. I know nobody really gives a crap about the NIT, CBI, or CIT because the only thing that matters is the NCAA Tournament, and I agree with a lot of that, but I also really like the second-tier tournaments. There's some intrigue with these. Illinois and Dayton ended up in the same bracket, and that would be a pretty good matchup. Will either UCONN or North Carolina put their talent together finally and play well, or have they completely given up for the year? And if nothing else, be thankful they exist so there's some college ball to watch/wager on all week long.
WHO SUCKED
1. Conference USA. It looked like this might be a break-through year for C-USA with a legitimate chance of them getting four teams in the dance depending on how the conference tourney shook out. It shook alright, with Memphis and UAB both getting dumped by crappy teams in the quarters, ending both team's NCAA dreams and assuring that outside of UTEP, nobody would be getting an at-large bid from the conference. They did manage to get two team's in thanks to Houston's championship win, but the Cougars are crappy and UTEP got a shitty seed, so there's a good chance C-USA goes 0 for the tournament this year.
2. Virginia Tech. This is the team that most people seem to have a problem with being excluded from the tournament, but the Hokies aren't even close to deserving a bid. That 23-8 mark looks nice, but their non-conference Strength of Schedule ranked a ridiculous 344th in the country. Their only non-conference wins over teams that are even remotely not god awful were over Penn State and Georgia, pretty much the defining line before you get to god awful. And as good as a 10-6 conference mark looks, they didn't beat either Duke or Maryland. Combine all that with a first round loss to Miami in the ACC tournament, and there is no way the Hokies deserved a bid. Sorry VT, maybe try to schedule some real teams in the future.
3. Dayton. Well it is now official - this year's trip to Chicago will be a bit hollow, since when we go to the Dayton bar there won't be any Dayton fans there, unless I guess maybe there's an NIT game or something. Considering they were supposed to be at the top of the A-10 and be a sweet-16 type team, this year can't be considered anything other than a disaster. Other than one win over Xavier and an early non-conference victory over Georgia Tech, they couldn't beat anybody, whiffing on games against Villanova, Kansas State, and New Mexico, and they lost plenty of games they couldn't afford to lose. Coming down the stretch they lost games to St. Louis, Richmond, and Duquesne. Losing to Richmond and St. Louis might have been manageable, but the loss to Duquesne was a crusher.
4. Mississippi State. Jarvis Varnado deserves better than the NIT, but for the second straight year MSU didn't do enough to get into the tournament and had to try to win SEC tournament to get in. Last year it worked, this year it came just short. The Bulldogs were damn close though, leading Kentucky by three with 4.9 seconds to go in the game. The Wildcats, however, pulled off the rare intentionally miss a free throw, get the rebound and score to tie the game move and sent it into overtime where they ended up winning and sent MSU to the NIT. Hopefully they can play well and at least make it to Madison Square Garden and send Varnado out in style, a player like that deserves it. I'm really going to miss him.
5. Northwestern. Ouch. From 10-1 media sleeper sensation to earn their first ever NCAA bid all the way to a 7 seed in the NIT (and will play vs. Rhode Island in round 1). I'm not too worried about them though, they'll almost certainly get a bid next year. With Shurna and Thompson both back, Coble returning from injury, and Drew Crawford getting better they have a real chance at an upper-division finish in the conference next year. That sounds weird.
THE GOPHERS MADE THE TOURNAMENT!!!!!
One thing is for sure, it's exciting, and the season no longer goes down as a failure. I'll be back with a true preview before I head out to Chicago with Snacks and Snake, but for now I'm predicting a Gopher win.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Colt Iverson. How did this happen? And I'm not even talking numbers, although basically scoring double his season average in every game is impressive, but his game was completely unrecognizable and I mean that in a good way. His moves were suddenly polished, and he had a lot of them. He now suddenly has a drop step. He's using shot fakes beautifully and looks like Kevin McHale down there. He can score with either hand. I have no idea what is going on here. I thought his upside was going to be like a Greg Ostertag rebounder/enforcer type who is most valuable for setting picks and his five fouls per game, but suddenly things have gotten really interesting. If this is for real, the Gophers are suddenly a dangerous team. Please let this be for real - like the Loch Ness Monster - and not some kind of false production - like the Moon Landing.
2. San Diego State. If you're on the bubble going into your conference tournament there is one surefire way to make sure you get a bid - win the whole thing, and that's what the Aztecs did, winning the MWC tournament, including wins over UNLV and New Mexico. SDSU is a dangerous team, and they went 2-1 against New Mexico this year with the loss being by just two points. Drawing Tennessee is always a mystery since they are the kind of team who could either flame out early or go on a deep run, but I'm calling an Aztec upset in the first round.
3. Duke. It's always tough to praise Duke, but they did what a lot of other regular season conference champions couldn't manage and they went out and won their conference tournament. They got lucky a bit in that Maryland got knocked out early by Georgia Tech, but winning the ACC is still winning the ACC. As a bonus, they picked up the fourth #1 seed and were somehow placed in the easiest region in the history of college basketball. But, since they're Duke, I'm sure they'll still screw it up somehow.
4. Ohio. Every year some middling team from a smaller conference gets hot and makes a run, winning their conference tournament and setting themselves up to get their doors blown off in the first round. This year, that honor goes to the Ohio Bobcats for winning the MAC, with Georgetown being the doors-blow-offer. Kent State or Akron would have been a dangerous foe, but they couldn't get it done so now we're saddled with the crappy Bobcats. And how tough is that region? The top five seeds are all legit Final Four contenders, including probably the best #1 and best #2. It should end up playing pretty close to form as I only see one real first round upset possibility, but whoever ends up coming out of there is really going to have to earn it.
5. Second-Tier basketball tournaments. I know nobody really gives a crap about the NIT, CBI, or CIT because the only thing that matters is the NCAA Tournament, and I agree with a lot of that, but I also really like the second-tier tournaments. There's some intrigue with these. Illinois and Dayton ended up in the same bracket, and that would be a pretty good matchup. Will either UCONN or North Carolina put their talent together finally and play well, or have they completely given up for the year? And if nothing else, be thankful they exist so there's some college ball to watch/wager on all week long.
WHO SUCKED
1. Conference USA. It looked like this might be a break-through year for C-USA with a legitimate chance of them getting four teams in the dance depending on how the conference tourney shook out. It shook alright, with Memphis and UAB both getting dumped by crappy teams in the quarters, ending both team's NCAA dreams and assuring that outside of UTEP, nobody would be getting an at-large bid from the conference. They did manage to get two team's in thanks to Houston's championship win, but the Cougars are crappy and UTEP got a shitty seed, so there's a good chance C-USA goes 0 for the tournament this year.
2. Virginia Tech. This is the team that most people seem to have a problem with being excluded from the tournament, but the Hokies aren't even close to deserving a bid. That 23-8 mark looks nice, but their non-conference Strength of Schedule ranked a ridiculous 344th in the country. Their only non-conference wins over teams that are even remotely not god awful were over Penn State and Georgia, pretty much the defining line before you get to god awful. And as good as a 10-6 conference mark looks, they didn't beat either Duke or Maryland. Combine all that with a first round loss to Miami in the ACC tournament, and there is no way the Hokies deserved a bid. Sorry VT, maybe try to schedule some real teams in the future.
3. Dayton. Well it is now official - this year's trip to Chicago will be a bit hollow, since when we go to the Dayton bar there won't be any Dayton fans there, unless I guess maybe there's an NIT game or something. Considering they were supposed to be at the top of the A-10 and be a sweet-16 type team, this year can't be considered anything other than a disaster. Other than one win over Xavier and an early non-conference victory over Georgia Tech, they couldn't beat anybody, whiffing on games against Villanova, Kansas State, and New Mexico, and they lost plenty of games they couldn't afford to lose. Coming down the stretch they lost games to St. Louis, Richmond, and Duquesne. Losing to Richmond and St. Louis might have been manageable, but the loss to Duquesne was a crusher.
4. Mississippi State. Jarvis Varnado deserves better than the NIT, but for the second straight year MSU didn't do enough to get into the tournament and had to try to win SEC tournament to get in. Last year it worked, this year it came just short. The Bulldogs were damn close though, leading Kentucky by three with 4.9 seconds to go in the game. The Wildcats, however, pulled off the rare intentionally miss a free throw, get the rebound and score to tie the game move and sent it into overtime where they ended up winning and sent MSU to the NIT. Hopefully they can play well and at least make it to Madison Square Garden and send Varnado out in style, a player like that deserves it. I'm really going to miss him.
5. Northwestern. Ouch. From 10-1 media sleeper sensation to earn their first ever NCAA bid all the way to a 7 seed in the NIT (and will play vs. Rhode Island in round 1). I'm not too worried about them though, they'll almost certainly get a bid next year. With Shurna and Thompson both back, Coble returning from injury, and Drew Crawford getting better they have a real chance at an upper-division finish in the conference next year. That sounds weird.
THE GOPHERS MADE THE TOURNAMENT!!!!!
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