 |
| This is an average Utah State girl. |
 |
| I agree with these girls. |
Showing posts with label Utah State. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Utah State. Show all posts
Wednesday, October 3, 2012
NCAA Hoops Preview: Teams 68-60
As the college basketball season approaches, you're no doubt wondering to yourself, "Hey, when is DWG going to start in with those needlessly long college basketball conference previews that nobody really reads anyway but come with hot pictures?" Well, I have news for you: I'm just too busy these days to write that much about the bottom teams of Conference USA, sorry. I can't, however, go into a college basketball season without at least writing something, so instead I will write short previews of the top 68 teams this year by my estimation, in reverse order. Why 68, you ask? Because when I first wrote down all the interesting teams I had 73, and 68 seems like a nice number for college basketball so I chopped off four (sorry Wichita, North Texas, Central Florida, and South Florida). I will be posting these in chunks of however many I feel like at a time. So here we go with #s 68 through whatever I get to.
68. UTAH STATE AGGIES. I understand nobody really cares about Utah State, but other than Williams Arena it's the place I've seen the most college basketball games, that arena is awesome, and the chicks there are as hot as I've seen anywhere outside of Target HQ, so USU will always get a bump from me. Plus assuming they can find a way to replace point guard and horrible first name guy Brockeith Pane at the point they should walk to the WAC title (again). Preston Medlin will be in the running for WAC player of the year and fellow wing Kyisean Reed might be the most athletic player in the conference since Magnum Rolle or at least from what I've seen which admittedly is not all that much because the WAC is never on TV. In any case it should be a bounce back year for the Aggies, which will make it much more enjoyable if I'm out there for a game this year. Well, that and the chicks, man.
67. IOWA HAWKEYES. It's looking like Iowa might be back, and by back I mean back to the mediocrity we've become accustomed to rather than this laughing stock status I've thoroughly enjoyed the last few seasons. McCaffery snagged one of the better recruiting classes in the conference this year, and Roy Marble and Aaron White look like they're going to be major factors even if Aaron White doesn't look like he should be any kind of factor at all. If Melsahn Basabe can bounce back from a sub-par sophomore year the Hawkeyes could be better than this, but I wouldn't count on it because Iowa sucks and everybody knows it.
66. USC TROJANS. Good news for the Gophers, this is the only non-Battle 4 Atlantis non-conference opponent who appears on this list. Bad news is that they might not even belong this high but I mean come on, we have to at least have the chance to believe there's a decent opponent on the slate, right? Actually the Trojans would have probably belonged right about here, but leading scorer Maurice Jones transferred after being declared academically ineligible, and that's a bit of a ding right there. Still, there are a couple decent returning guys and if guard Jio Fontan is fully recovered from last season's ACL injury he's really, really good. There are also a bunch of transfers from places like Wake and Tennessee and UC-Irvine so who knows, the Trojans could be good enough to surprise. And by surprise of course I mean surprisingly make the NIT, not the NCAA Tournament. Make no mistake, a loss by the Gophers to these guys is a disaster.
65. NEVADA WOLFPACK. The move to the Mountain West will hurt Nevada a bit short term since that conference is pretty good whereas the WAC would have been Utah State, Nevada, and that's it, but I'm sure long term it'll be good or something. Still, Nevada has some serious fire power and should score an upset or two. The Deonte Burton and Malik Story back court combo is the type that can win a game on it's own if they're both hot, or could completely shoot them out of a game if not. One thing is for certain with that kind of guard tandem - I won't touch a single game bet of theirs the whole season. Unless it's the late game. On TV. Ok fine, even if it's not on TV, but it WILL have to be a late game. Probably.
64. MANHATTAN JASPERS. The Jaspers haven't been relevant since the glory days of Luis Flores, but now they're back and Bogart can break out his Manhattan Jaspers t-shirt again. They return last season's leading conference scorer and last year's Conference Defensive Player of the Year along with a few other starters and should be good enough to tangle with Loyola in the MAAC. I'd write more but really that's all I know but I really wanted to rank Manhattan in here because god it was so much fun wagering on Manhattan on Friday nights when Flores was there. I think they covered ever single night.
63. IOWA STATE CYCLONES. Another team I may be ranking too highly but I like them and it's my blog and my rankings so screw you fascist. Anyway, the losses will be tough to deal with especially since Royce White led the team in basically every category including assists (and Chris Allen and Scott Christopherson were scorers #2 and #3), but I have a feeling Hoiberg's transfer system is going to work out well (coming in this year: Korie Lucious from Michigan State and Will Clyburn from Utah) in the short term, and the team's success is already paying dividends in recruiting with one ESPN Top100 recruit coming in this season and two more on-board already for 2013, which if you're scoring at home is only one fewer than Tubby's signed in his entire time with the Gophers. That's it, I'm moving to Ames. Plus they have a really kick-ass sandwich shop there (West End Deli, maybe?) and a "strip club" where the girls strip down to bikinis which is weird but whatever. All that plus actual D-I level basketball. Sounds like nirvana.
62. UMASS MINUTEMEN. Can UMass finally get to their first NCAA Tournament since 1998? No, probably not since the only time that school was good was when cheater Calipari was there, but at least they should be in the mix. They have a good start with apparent 1980's movie bully Chaz Williams back, who led the A-10 in assists last season, and if you start with a great distributor you never know how things are going to fall. They also have basically the same entire squad back from last year's NIT Final Four team, which is both a positive and a negative, and it's a very experienced team. Sort of the opposite of Nevada, UMass is a solid, experienced, and quality team who should be able to hang with pretty much anybody without getting blown out. They don't play anyone particularly good this year, so I can see taking them in any game where they are +5 or worse. Also I didn't intend for these previews to be gambling related in any way, but it turns out I have one hell of a gambling problem.
61. MIDDLE TENNESSEE BLUE RAIDERS. Remember last year when these guys blew through the Sun Belt like they owned the joint and were even a possible at-large team depending on how the conference tournament went? And then they lost in their first conference tournament game to a shitty team and got bounced to the NIT where they won two games before the Gophers stomped on their heads? Well this is basically the same team with more experience. They do lose their leading scorer who also happened to be the conference player of the year, but should still be the best team in the conference. The only team who should be able to challenge them is North Texas, so there's no reason Middle Tennessee shouldn't be making a trip to the NCAA Tournament this year. You know, just like last season.
60. ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE. It's going to be tough to replace JaMychal Green and Tony Mitchell, although less so Mitchell because he missed the team's last eleven games after being suspended. The biggest key to the season may be freshman Devonta Pollard, a small forward who is an absolute elite player from Day 1 (#28 overall on ESPN, #22 on Rivals). If Pollard (who is 6'8) can play in the paint Alabama's two billion good guards could surround him and make this a very good team. If he can't, they basically have nobody else and they will suck like that 2 Broke Girls show. There is no in between. I refuse to allow it.
Sunday, November 13, 2011
Week in Review - 11/14/2011 (+ mini South Dakota State preview)
Hey thanks internet. You are supposed to be there to let me watch the Pacquiao/Marquez fight without having to pay a dime. Instead I had to watch 3 seconds at a time and then stare at a god damn hour glass. You failed me internet. You failed me. We are totally fighting.
WHO WAS AWESOME.
1. Gopher hoops. Click here for a proper recap, but to put it short, that was a solid win against a solid team, and the fact that they were able to actually manage to come back from down 5 with six minutes to go, against said solid team, just really impresses me. I guess I have a low impress threshold. I suppose it's just one more thing Gopher basketball has stolen from me. And yet I can't stop going back. I'm like a beaten woman, aren't I. Oh my god I'm Aaliyah and the Gophers are Chris Brown.
2. Royce White. God mother hell shit fart. This sucks. Royce with 25 and 11 in his ISU debut, with 3 blocks and a couple assists to go with it. And here's you, sitting there in your Laz-E-Boy watching Cops and swirling your brandy around even though it's fucking Korbel and making snide comments about how you wonder how many security guards he's pushed down or how many laptops he's stolen. It's people like you that will always hold the Gopher basketball program down with your judging judgement. What about the bible, fella? Doesn't it say "don't be a pompous judgmental ass or I'll turn you into a pillar of salt" or something? I think it's in Leviticus.
3. Utah State. There were better wins this weekend - UNC's over Michigan State for one - but between pure emotion and actual effect on an NCAA bid Utah's State's win over BYU might end up being the biggest. In terms of NCAA Tournament implications, Utah State always needs quality wins since they're in the WAC where quality wins are basically impossible to come by and this was only one of three games against quality opponents for USU. Huge win in the RPI sense. Also a huge win in the "i hate these fuckin' guys" sense, because Utah Staties hate BYU, mostly because they're a bunch of prissy dickheads. Here is a video of Utah State students welcoming BYU to their arena. Solid effort.
4. Kendall Marshall. You know how sometimes thing don't live up to the hype like Terra Nova, every Hannibal Lecter movie after Silence of the Lambs, flavored Mountain Dew (other than Live Wire), the last two George R.R. Martin novels, or having kids? Well I finally got a good chance to watch Kendall Marshall on Sunday against UNC-Asheville and this dude is straight legit. The stats are crazy - he had 15 assists - but just watching him it's clear he's the best point guard UNC has had since Ed Cota and he might even be better. He's got that smooth playability about him where he doesn't really look like he's moving quickly or even really trying (like Evan Turner) but continually gets past people and his court vision is off the charts. Whether it's a simple entry pass, running the break, or getting the ball up the court as fast as possible by passing it ahead, he's a legit point guard and as far as pure points go I'm thinking he might be the best in the country. Outside of Justin Cobbs, of course.
5. Mark Sanchez. Actually he sucks and couldn't get the Jets in the end zone with four plays inside the 10 at the end of the game, but he's awesome because as part of a teaser I had Jets/Pats under 54 and so boom. The final leg is Vikes/Pack over 43, and there's almost no way the Pack doesn't even get there by themself, am I right?
WHO SUCKED
1. UCLA. You know how the Pac-10 has been in shambles for a few years and getting even two NCAA bids was kind of an accomplishment? Well it's probably going to happen again. Arizona looks like a sloppy mess right now, but at least they managed to not eff it up so badly that they actually lost, unlike the Bruins. Yes, UCLA managed to lose their opener. Not only did they lose, they lost to a mid-tier WCC team in Loyola-Marymount. At home. By 11. The first time LMU beat UCLA since 1941. Ouch. Particularly impressive was point guard Lazeric Jones going 1-11 from the field for the Bruins, but they'll get some help at the point next game when Jerime Anderson is back, who was suspended one game for stealing a laptop this summer. Huh? A one game suspension for stealing a laptop. How interesting. Personally I would have run him right off campus and made sure he transferred out, probably going to a school in a neighboring state where he'd have a right smashing debut. It's the proper way to handle it.
2. Butler. I know Butler lost to Evansville last year early and still made the Nat Champ Game, and I know that losing Shelvin Mack and Matt Howard would be pretty tough for anybody so dropping a game to Evansville (in Evansville) is probably not that big a deal. Then again, last year at 9-9 was the first time Evansville reached .500 in conference (MVC) play since 2000 so losing to them is not exactly excusable. Let me put it this way, outside the Aces two wins over Butler the last two years their only notable non-conference win dating back to 2001 was over Purdue in 2005. This ain't exactly a giant killing program. Maybe Evansville just has Butler's number, or maybe it's going to take a while to adjust to no Howard and no Mack, but maybe Butler just flat sucks this year. They're going to struggle there's no doubt, because there's some quality Horizon opponents this year. And speaking of......
3. Vanderbilt. You know how every time Vandy has a supposed good team they get bounced early in the NCAA Tournament? Well apparently this year's version decided just to go out and start disappointing people right away because they lost on Sunday to Cleveland State 71-58. Now in reality losing to Cleveland State isn't that bad of a loss because Cleveland State is one of the best teams in one of the best mid-major conferences in the country, and they will likely be in the running for an at-large bid come end of the year if they don't win the Horizon tournament. But still, this was at Vanderbilt and the Commodores supposedly have their best team of all time and are ranked 7th in the country, so due to those circumstances this is a pretty crappy loss. Vandy sucked, you might even say.
4. Kansas City Chiefs. Actually there were so many NFL teams who embarrassed themselves this week it was hard to pick just one. The Chiefs lost (at home) to Denver despite the Broncos completing just two passes the entire game. The Ravens lost to the T-Jax led Seahawks while passing 53 times and only giving Ray Rice eight carries. The Lions got smoked by the Bears by something like 50 points, the Eagles continued their unstoppable march to mediocrity by losing at home to a terrible Eagles team, and Buffalo reminded everyone they are Buffalo by getting crushed by Dallas. Just a bizarre week in the NFL with a lot of really ugly games by ugly teams. I'd say at this rate the Vikings actually have a chance to beat the Pack tonight.
5. Cain Velasquez. I don't know why I keep trying to get back into these fighting sports. First Mayweather/Ortiz which ends in Floyd knocking out Ortiz while Ortiz is defenseless (his own fault but still), then Hopkins/Dawson which ended with an essential body slam and/or an old man looking to quit. Now Saturday night I decide to check in on UFC and I get to see Velasquez, the "champion" (quotes should be read as air quotes), get hit in the face once, fall down, and then cry. Seriously, pros should be able to take a punch, if I wanted to watch someone get knocked out I'd just ask someone to hit me (although the one time it actually happened after Dawger pickd a fight with some gang member and some other dude sucker punched me in the face and I was all like I will kill you mother fucker but he knocked my glasses off so I couldn't see shit and had no idea what was going on but I asked some other gang member dude to help me find my glasses since it was bullshit that the dude sucker punched me and he actually helped me look for them). So yeah, I could beat up Cain Velasquez. FACT.
As far as the Gophers go, they keep it going by taking on South Dakota State tonight. The Jackrabbits are on a very similar plane as Bucknell as far as talent level goes - a good team from a terrible conference - and it should be a similar story to the Bucknell game - they have some good players and can be dangerous if the Gophers either don't play well or take them too lightly, but the Gophers really have no excuse for losing this game.
SDSU is another team that shoots the ball very well from three (41% last year) and they have a player in Nate Wolters who can take over a game and who many people who are stupid think should be a Gopher. Wolters has a shot at winning Summit League Player of the Year this season, averaged 19 points, 5 rebounds, and 6 assists per game last year, and opened up this year by dropping 32 (with 11 assists) in the Jackrabbits' win over Western Michigan. Wolters is also from St. Cloud, which means people in this state are needlessly in love with him and also means he'll have a bit of extra motivation. Him coming out and scoring 30+ is a very real possibility.
There are a couple of other decent players here (Jordan Dykstra in the post and SG Griffen Callahan both have the ability to score 20), but, like on Friday, the Gophers have more size, athleticism, ability, talent, and depth. I expect SDSU to come out with a burst of emotion and grittiness and keep this one tight in the first half, but the Gophers should pull this one out by 10+ by the time it's over. Of course, I say should, but once again this isn't a cupcake opponent and if the Gophers let them get hot from the perimeter and nobody's making shots for the Gophers isn't going to be tough. Mbakwe and Sampson will probably be doubled again all day, so somebody else is going to have to help.
Or Mbakwe just grabs 20 boards and scores on putbacks all game because SDSU has absolutely nobody who can keep him off the glass.
Minnesota 72, South Dakota State 62
(If you're looking for something a little more in-depth, I'd assume From the Barn has got you covered)
WHO WAS AWESOME.
1. Gopher hoops. Click here for a proper recap, but to put it short, that was a solid win against a solid team, and the fact that they were able to actually manage to come back from down 5 with six minutes to go, against said solid team, just really impresses me. I guess I have a low impress threshold. I suppose it's just one more thing Gopher basketball has stolen from me. And yet I can't stop going back. I'm like a beaten woman, aren't I. Oh my god I'm Aaliyah and the Gophers are Chris Brown.
2. Royce White. God mother hell shit fart. This sucks. Royce with 25 and 11 in his ISU debut, with 3 blocks and a couple assists to go with it. And here's you, sitting there in your Laz-E-Boy watching Cops and swirling your brandy around even though it's fucking Korbel and making snide comments about how you wonder how many security guards he's pushed down or how many laptops he's stolen. It's people like you that will always hold the Gopher basketball program down with your judging judgement. What about the bible, fella? Doesn't it say "don't be a pompous judgmental ass or I'll turn you into a pillar of salt" or something? I think it's in Leviticus.
3. Utah State. There were better wins this weekend - UNC's over Michigan State for one - but between pure emotion and actual effect on an NCAA bid Utah's State's win over BYU might end up being the biggest. In terms of NCAA Tournament implications, Utah State always needs quality wins since they're in the WAC where quality wins are basically impossible to come by and this was only one of three games against quality opponents for USU. Huge win in the RPI sense. Also a huge win in the "i hate these fuckin' guys" sense, because Utah Staties hate BYU, mostly because they're a bunch of prissy dickheads. Here is a video of Utah State students welcoming BYU to their arena. Solid effort.
4. Kendall Marshall. You know how sometimes thing don't live up to the hype like Terra Nova, every Hannibal Lecter movie after Silence of the Lambs, flavored Mountain Dew (other than Live Wire), the last two George R.R. Martin novels, or having kids? Well I finally got a good chance to watch Kendall Marshall on Sunday against UNC-Asheville and this dude is straight legit. The stats are crazy - he had 15 assists - but just watching him it's clear he's the best point guard UNC has had since Ed Cota and he might even be better. He's got that smooth playability about him where he doesn't really look like he's moving quickly or even really trying (like Evan Turner) but continually gets past people and his court vision is off the charts. Whether it's a simple entry pass, running the break, or getting the ball up the court as fast as possible by passing it ahead, he's a legit point guard and as far as pure points go I'm thinking he might be the best in the country. Outside of Justin Cobbs, of course.
5. Mark Sanchez. Actually he sucks and couldn't get the Jets in the end zone with four plays inside the 10 at the end of the game, but he's awesome because as part of a teaser I had Jets/Pats under 54 and so boom. The final leg is Vikes/Pack over 43, and there's almost no way the Pack doesn't even get there by themself, am I right?
WHO SUCKED
1. UCLA. You know how the Pac-10 has been in shambles for a few years and getting even two NCAA bids was kind of an accomplishment? Well it's probably going to happen again. Arizona looks like a sloppy mess right now, but at least they managed to not eff it up so badly that they actually lost, unlike the Bruins. Yes, UCLA managed to lose their opener. Not only did they lose, they lost to a mid-tier WCC team in Loyola-Marymount. At home. By 11. The first time LMU beat UCLA since 1941. Ouch. Particularly impressive was point guard Lazeric Jones going 1-11 from the field for the Bruins, but they'll get some help at the point next game when Jerime Anderson is back, who was suspended one game for stealing a laptop this summer. Huh? A one game suspension for stealing a laptop. How interesting. Personally I would have run him right off campus and made sure he transferred out, probably going to a school in a neighboring state where he'd have a right smashing debut. It's the proper way to handle it.
2. Butler. I know Butler lost to Evansville last year early and still made the Nat Champ Game, and I know that losing Shelvin Mack and Matt Howard would be pretty tough for anybody so dropping a game to Evansville (in Evansville) is probably not that big a deal. Then again, last year at 9-9 was the first time Evansville reached .500 in conference (MVC) play since 2000 so losing to them is not exactly excusable. Let me put it this way, outside the Aces two wins over Butler the last two years their only notable non-conference win dating back to 2001 was over Purdue in 2005. This ain't exactly a giant killing program. Maybe Evansville just has Butler's number, or maybe it's going to take a while to adjust to no Howard and no Mack, but maybe Butler just flat sucks this year. They're going to struggle there's no doubt, because there's some quality Horizon opponents this year. And speaking of......
3. Vanderbilt. You know how every time Vandy has a supposed good team they get bounced early in the NCAA Tournament? Well apparently this year's version decided just to go out and start disappointing people right away because they lost on Sunday to Cleveland State 71-58. Now in reality losing to Cleveland State isn't that bad of a loss because Cleveland State is one of the best teams in one of the best mid-major conferences in the country, and they will likely be in the running for an at-large bid come end of the year if they don't win the Horizon tournament. But still, this was at Vanderbilt and the Commodores supposedly have their best team of all time and are ranked 7th in the country, so due to those circumstances this is a pretty crappy loss. Vandy sucked, you might even say.
4. Kansas City Chiefs. Actually there were so many NFL teams who embarrassed themselves this week it was hard to pick just one. The Chiefs lost (at home) to Denver despite the Broncos completing just two passes the entire game. The Ravens lost to the T-Jax led Seahawks while passing 53 times and only giving Ray Rice eight carries. The Lions got smoked by the Bears by something like 50 points, the Eagles continued their unstoppable march to mediocrity by losing at home to a terrible Eagles team, and Buffalo reminded everyone they are Buffalo by getting crushed by Dallas. Just a bizarre week in the NFL with a lot of really ugly games by ugly teams. I'd say at this rate the Vikings actually have a chance to beat the Pack tonight.
5. Cain Velasquez. I don't know why I keep trying to get back into these fighting sports. First Mayweather/Ortiz which ends in Floyd knocking out Ortiz while Ortiz is defenseless (his own fault but still), then Hopkins/Dawson which ended with an essential body slam and/or an old man looking to quit. Now Saturday night I decide to check in on UFC and I get to see Velasquez, the "champion" (quotes should be read as air quotes), get hit in the face once, fall down, and then cry. Seriously, pros should be able to take a punch, if I wanted to watch someone get knocked out I'd just ask someone to hit me (although the one time it actually happened after Dawger pickd a fight with some gang member and some other dude sucker punched me in the face and I was all like I will kill you mother fucker but he knocked my glasses off so I couldn't see shit and had no idea what was going on but I asked some other gang member dude to help me find my glasses since it was bullshit that the dude sucker punched me and he actually helped me look for them). So yeah, I could beat up Cain Velasquez. FACT.
As far as the Gophers go, they keep it going by taking on South Dakota State tonight. The Jackrabbits are on a very similar plane as Bucknell as far as talent level goes - a good team from a terrible conference - and it should be a similar story to the Bucknell game - they have some good players and can be dangerous if the Gophers either don't play well or take them too lightly, but the Gophers really have no excuse for losing this game.
SDSU is another team that shoots the ball very well from three (41% last year) and they have a player in Nate Wolters who can take over a game and who many people who are stupid think should be a Gopher. Wolters has a shot at winning Summit League Player of the Year this season, averaged 19 points, 5 rebounds, and 6 assists per game last year, and opened up this year by dropping 32 (with 11 assists) in the Jackrabbits' win over Western Michigan. Wolters is also from St. Cloud, which means people in this state are needlessly in love with him and also means he'll have a bit of extra motivation. Him coming out and scoring 30+ is a very real possibility.
There are a couple of other decent players here (Jordan Dykstra in the post and SG Griffen Callahan both have the ability to score 20), but, like on Friday, the Gophers have more size, athleticism, ability, talent, and depth. I expect SDSU to come out with a burst of emotion and grittiness and keep this one tight in the first half, but the Gophers should pull this one out by 10+ by the time it's over. Of course, I say should, but once again this isn't a cupcake opponent and if the Gophers let them get hot from the perimeter and nobody's making shots for the Gophers isn't going to be tough. Mbakwe and Sampson will probably be doubled again all day, so somebody else is going to have to help.
Or Mbakwe just grabs 20 boards and scores on putbacks all game because SDSU has absolutely nobody who can keep him off the glass.
Minnesota 72, South Dakota State 62
(If you're looking for something a little more in-depth, I'd assume From the Barn has got you covered)
 | |
| This picture comes up if you search for Jackrabbits Cheerleaders. Good enough, amiright? |
Monday, March 14, 2011
Some Tough Bracket Questions
I'm just sitting here, sipping away on some Crown Royal - which I won for free at a raffle while supporting a very worthy cause, so it's win/win - and looking at my bracket picks and there are some really tough questions this year. So why not share what I'm agonizing over? Maybe it will give you some insight to pick a better bracket. Maybe somebody can sway me in the comments section. Or maybe I'll just come to a better conclusion by typing it all out. Maybe it will even be entertaining. Or not. Whatever, dude it's free so just read it.
And don't forget to join the DWG bracket pool at this link. Valuable prizes are there to be won.
EAST REGION
The top half here is pretty straight forward if you ask me, particularly the 8/9 game between GMU and Nova, where Mason should kill the sliding Wildcats and Ohio State will have little trouble with anybody, including Kentucky. I think UK was ripe for a first round upset until they were matched against Princeton, who won't be able to remotely keep up with them. The Princeton offense is cute and can work in some instances, but Kentucky is too athletic and too fast. It wouldn't surprise me if the Tigers keep in close for a half, but Kentucky wins hands down.
The bottom half, however, is a mess for me because both second round games are tough. Syracuse has been both good and bad this year, however what they've had the most trouble with is teams with good, penetrating guards - which exactly what Xavier bases its offense on, particularly Tu Holloway. On the other hand, Xavier hasn't beaten anybody out of conference play - look at their schedule, they've missed on every chance to get a good win. But on the third hand, they did dominate the A-10, for whatever that's worth.
The other game, UNC vs. Washington, is going to be an absolute circus ball barnburner. Washington is a much better team than they're 7 seed, but unfortunately when circus ball goes bad it goes bad in a hurry. Carolina on the other hand snagged a two thanks to a late run through the ACC, but looked pretty bad in their ACC Tournament games. Is Harrison Barnes about to make the leap on the biggest stage or can Justin Holiday shut him down? Can Kendall Marshall run with Captain Circus Ball (Isaiah Thomas)? Is Terrence Ross's emergence in the Pac-10 Tournament a real thing or a fluky blip through a mediocre season? Does Washington have enough skilled bigs to slow down an emerging Tyler Zeller and rebounding machine John Henson? And can either of them stop Matthew Bryan-Amaning?
That's the game where I'm having the biggest issue, because whoever wins that is my elite 8 team opposite Ohio State. Putting a seven seed there might be a recipe for disaster, but like I said I don't think Washington is talented like a 7, more like a 3 or 4. In a wide open tournament they could make a big run. In any case, that section of the bracket is without question the most talented and hardest to pick.
WEST REGION
One of the toughest first round games here for me in Oakland vs. Texas. I was convinced I was going to pick Oakland in their first round match up, because their entire season looks like a run-up to a first round upset: tough non-conference schedule with a bunch of misses, easy run through the conference, an NBA player and another dynamic scorer. And then they got Texas. Texas, who on talent should not be a 4, but more like a 3 or even a 2. Texas, who is equally capable of flaming out and could easily lose not just to Oakland but could even lose to a 16 seed. I just don't know. If Texas does get passed Oakland, however, they'll beat both Arizona and Duke. Book it.
The bottom of the bracket is pretty straight forward other than the Cincy/Mizzou game but who really cares because neither will get through UCONN. Until the sweet 16 matchup between UCONN and San Diego State, that's about as tough as it gets. I don't know if I believe in UCONN, despite that run through the Big East Tournament. Hard to pick against them, though, even if I'm a big SDSU guy. Either way the winner of that game is your final four team, whether they end up having to beat Duke or Texas.
SOUTHEAST REGION
This is without a doubt the biggest mess of a region, at least for me, because other than Pitt winning this entire region, a lock, I've changed the outcome of basically every other game ten times. For some reason I'm having trouble picking Belmont over Wisconsin even though my entire plan was to pick Belmont over anybody because they play so similarly. I also want to pick Utah State over K-State because I think that's a perfect matchup for USU - an undisciplined, mediocrely coached team prone to underachieving - but they haven't beaten anybody this year and I can't stop thinking about how last year's team could keep up with Texas A&M athletically, and this year's team is probably less athletic while K-State is way beyond last year's A&M.
At the bottom here it's stunning that Florida is a two seed, and they could run all the way to the elite 8 or they could get dropped in the first round if their guards aren't shooting well. St. Johns might be the toughest team but just lost leading rebounder and third leading scorer DJ Kennedy to a knee injury. Everybody knows about Jimmer and BYU, but what can you expect from a team who just booted their best interior player for getting some stank on his hang down? Then there's Michigan State who has struggled all year but hell it's Michigan State. This year's version actually looks worse than ever, but I'm pretty sure we said that last year. And maybe the year before. I just don't know.
This whole region is a complete mess for me right now. The only thing I'm remotely sure of is that Pitt is winning it. Other than that, anything else could happen. Hell I could see Gonzaga getting to the elite 8. And, just to throw a little more confusion your way, Old Dominion is absolutely the worst possible second round matchup for Pitt, and as sure as I sound about Pitt winning it wouldn't remotely surprise me if ODU wins. Crazy year.
SOUTHWEST REGION
This is the region I'm most confident in. Kansas is a very good team that's also very vulnerable, but fortunately for them they don't face a team that can beat them until Notre Dame in the elite 8. Louisville is a good team that will get to sweet 16 and I wanted to pick them to beat the Jayhawks, but they just aren't a good enough team to do it. I like their guards but neither Knowles or Siva is the type to dominate a game and I don't think they have the interior guys to handle the Morrisisis's, so KU moves on.
In the bottom half the toughest game to pick is Georgetown vs. Purdue. The Hoyas were looking very Final Four sleeperish but faded hard once Chris Wright went out with a broken hand. He's supposed to be back for the tournament (and it's his non-shooting hand) but who knows how it will affect him? The game is in Chicago as well, which settled the coin flip for me and convinced me to push Purdue through to the Sweet 16. Not that it really matters, because either team loses to Notre Dame. Both the Irish and the Jayhawks could have been vulnerable to the right (wrong?) team, but both caught a break and are on a collision course to the Elite 8. That will be a great game, and I see the Notre Dame pulling it out because Kansas has to choke somewhere.
I feel better now. I know what I'm going to do. Go ahead and prove you're smarter than me. And forward the link on to as many people as you want. I'm still going to win. And then I get to keep all the prizes.
SUCKA MC!
And don't forget to join the DWG bracket pool at this link. Valuable prizes are there to be won.
EAST REGION
The top half here is pretty straight forward if you ask me, particularly the 8/9 game between GMU and Nova, where Mason should kill the sliding Wildcats and Ohio State will have little trouble with anybody, including Kentucky. I think UK was ripe for a first round upset until they were matched against Princeton, who won't be able to remotely keep up with them. The Princeton offense is cute and can work in some instances, but Kentucky is too athletic and too fast. It wouldn't surprise me if the Tigers keep in close for a half, but Kentucky wins hands down.
The bottom half, however, is a mess for me because both second round games are tough. Syracuse has been both good and bad this year, however what they've had the most trouble with is teams with good, penetrating guards - which exactly what Xavier bases its offense on, particularly Tu Holloway. On the other hand, Xavier hasn't beaten anybody out of conference play - look at their schedule, they've missed on every chance to get a good win. But on the third hand, they did dominate the A-10, for whatever that's worth.
The other game, UNC vs. Washington, is going to be an absolute circus ball barnburner. Washington is a much better team than they're 7 seed, but unfortunately when circus ball goes bad it goes bad in a hurry. Carolina on the other hand snagged a two thanks to a late run through the ACC, but looked pretty bad in their ACC Tournament games. Is Harrison Barnes about to make the leap on the biggest stage or can Justin Holiday shut him down? Can Kendall Marshall run with Captain Circus Ball (Isaiah Thomas)? Is Terrence Ross's emergence in the Pac-10 Tournament a real thing or a fluky blip through a mediocre season? Does Washington have enough skilled bigs to slow down an emerging Tyler Zeller and rebounding machine John Henson? And can either of them stop Matthew Bryan-Amaning?
That's the game where I'm having the biggest issue, because whoever wins that is my elite 8 team opposite Ohio State. Putting a seven seed there might be a recipe for disaster, but like I said I don't think Washington is talented like a 7, more like a 3 or 4. In a wide open tournament they could make a big run. In any case, that section of the bracket is without question the most talented and hardest to pick.
WEST REGION
One of the toughest first round games here for me in Oakland vs. Texas. I was convinced I was going to pick Oakland in their first round match up, because their entire season looks like a run-up to a first round upset: tough non-conference schedule with a bunch of misses, easy run through the conference, an NBA player and another dynamic scorer. And then they got Texas. Texas, who on talent should not be a 4, but more like a 3 or even a 2. Texas, who is equally capable of flaming out and could easily lose not just to Oakland but could even lose to a 16 seed. I just don't know. If Texas does get passed Oakland, however, they'll beat both Arizona and Duke. Book it.
The bottom of the bracket is pretty straight forward other than the Cincy/Mizzou game but who really cares because neither will get through UCONN. Until the sweet 16 matchup between UCONN and San Diego State, that's about as tough as it gets. I don't know if I believe in UCONN, despite that run through the Big East Tournament. Hard to pick against them, though, even if I'm a big SDSU guy. Either way the winner of that game is your final four team, whether they end up having to beat Duke or Texas.
SOUTHEAST REGION
This is without a doubt the biggest mess of a region, at least for me, because other than Pitt winning this entire region, a lock, I've changed the outcome of basically every other game ten times. For some reason I'm having trouble picking Belmont over Wisconsin even though my entire plan was to pick Belmont over anybody because they play so similarly. I also want to pick Utah State over K-State because I think that's a perfect matchup for USU - an undisciplined, mediocrely coached team prone to underachieving - but they haven't beaten anybody this year and I can't stop thinking about how last year's team could keep up with Texas A&M athletically, and this year's team is probably less athletic while K-State is way beyond last year's A&M.
At the bottom here it's stunning that Florida is a two seed, and they could run all the way to the elite 8 or they could get dropped in the first round if their guards aren't shooting well. St. Johns might be the toughest team but just lost leading rebounder and third leading scorer DJ Kennedy to a knee injury. Everybody knows about Jimmer and BYU, but what can you expect from a team who just booted their best interior player for getting some stank on his hang down? Then there's Michigan State who has struggled all year but hell it's Michigan State. This year's version actually looks worse than ever, but I'm pretty sure we said that last year. And maybe the year before. I just don't know.
This whole region is a complete mess for me right now. The only thing I'm remotely sure of is that Pitt is winning it. Other than that, anything else could happen. Hell I could see Gonzaga getting to the elite 8. And, just to throw a little more confusion your way, Old Dominion is absolutely the worst possible second round matchup for Pitt, and as sure as I sound about Pitt winning it wouldn't remotely surprise me if ODU wins. Crazy year.
SOUTHWEST REGION
This is the region I'm most confident in. Kansas is a very good team that's also very vulnerable, but fortunately for them they don't face a team that can beat them until Notre Dame in the elite 8. Louisville is a good team that will get to sweet 16 and I wanted to pick them to beat the Jayhawks, but they just aren't a good enough team to do it. I like their guards but neither Knowles or Siva is the type to dominate a game and I don't think they have the interior guys to handle the Morrisisis's, so KU moves on.
In the bottom half the toughest game to pick is Georgetown vs. Purdue. The Hoyas were looking very Final Four sleeperish but faded hard once Chris Wright went out with a broken hand. He's supposed to be back for the tournament (and it's his non-shooting hand) but who knows how it will affect him? The game is in Chicago as well, which settled the coin flip for me and convinced me to push Purdue through to the Sweet 16. Not that it really matters, because either team loses to Notre Dame. Both the Irish and the Jayhawks could have been vulnerable to the right (wrong?) team, but both caught a break and are on a collision course to the Elite 8. That will be a great game, and I see the Notre Dame pulling it out because Kansas has to choke somewhere.
I feel better now. I know what I'm going to do. Go ahead and prove you're smarter than me. And forward the link on to as many people as you want. I'm still going to win. And then I get to keep all the prizes.
SUCKA MC!
Monday, February 14, 2011
Weekend Review - 02.14.2011
Damn you Turtle Lake. You win this round. At least I'm killing it with BetUS’ college basketball predictions so I don't have to worry about moving into the poor house. At least not yet. Onto your college hoops report:
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Minnesota Gophers. Wow. That was pretty awesome. Not the loss to Illinois of course, which was pretty disappointing, but I was becoming convinced this team was coming apart at the seams and that they were going to lose to Iowa, sounding the death knell on the season. Instead, they went out and beat the Hawkeyes soundly by a final margin of 62-45 in a game that wasn't even that close and was never in doubt. This tells me that the team should be good enough to hang on to their NCAA bid, and hopefully Nolen will come back in March, and then we'll just see what we'll see.
Special shout-outs to Colt Iverson, Rodney Williams, and Maverick Ahanmisi for their play last night. Iverson looked like a 6-11 point guard in his role in the middle of the Gopher offense against the Iowa zone, consistently finding the open man and helping the team get open shots. He only ended up with 1 assists but he definitely was a big reason the Gophers shot well and controlled the game. Williams took over the game for a stretch, showing the actualization of his near limitless potential, even if it was too short-lived. Finally, Ahanmisi played his best 11 minutes as a collegian, scoring 7 points, dishing 2 assists, and most importantly looking like a legitimate Big Ten point guard. I'm not sure I'm quite ready to hand over the keys to him for next season, but I'm sold on him as a backup and he might end up pretty good later in his career.
So, yeah, Iowa is a bad team and this win isn't exactly like beating an NCAA tournament team or even an NIT team, but at least we know they aren't in a death spiral here, and should most likely still end up in the dance. And then hey, who knows, am I right?
2. Xavier Musketeers. Huge week for X, which starting off with them beating an NCAA bubble team in Georgia and ended wit them reasserting their A-10 dominance by knocking off Duquesne, the team they were tied with at the top of the conference standings, and they did it at Duquesne's place - whatever it's called and actually I don't even know where Duquesne is. I'm going to guess Massachusetts. Anyway, Xavier has overcome a rough start and is starting to round into form. Either they just needed some time to adjust at the beginning of the year or they really aren't that good - it's just that the A-10 is down this year. Tread lightly.
3. Wisconsin Badgers. Giving Ohio State their first loss will get you a mention here. And now they're 9-3 in the Big Ten, have basically solidified themselves as the second best team in the conference, and are looking like they're a Sweet 16 team with upside. Great. I still hate them. Seriously, how can they be this good with guys like Tim Jarmusz, Keaton Nankivil, and Mike Bruesewitz as integral cogs? Bo Ryan is a freaking wizard. Crap. I think I accidentally realized I respect him. Still hate him though.
4. Pitt Panthers. It's a wide open year with about 15-20 legit final four contenders, and nearly every team has some pretty severe flaws that could end up knocking them out early. The one exception I've found is Pitt, a very balanced team who showed some serious moxie this week, winning on the road at both West Virginia and Villanova, the first loss for Nova at home since 2007. And they did it without leading scorer and point guard Ashton Gibbs. They're a good offensive team, a good defensive team, they score inside, they score outside, and they have great guards - everything you could want for success in March. If I didn't hate the Pitt program so much, I'd be a huge fan. Damn you Carl Krauser.
5. St. Johns Red Storm. I feel like I'm writing about these guys almost every week, but this was another monster week for the resurgent storm, dismantling UCONN at home and then winning a very big bubble implications type of game on the road at Cincinnati. I don't know exactly where they rank on the bubble and a 14-9 overall record isn't pretty, but a 7-5 Big East record with wins now over Georgetown, Notre Dame, UCONN, and Duke tells me that based on talent this is absolutely an NCAA Tournament team, and an RPI of 20 with a strength of schedule ranked #2 says the same. They still have two gimmes in home games versus DePaul and South Florida, so at minimum they should end up at 9-9 in conference play. That's got to be good enough.
WHO SUCKED
1. Northwestern Wildcats. They seem to land here almost every week, don't they? I'm not even sure what else there is to write anymore, but they're just so hard to ignore because jesus. This week they lost to a bad Michigan team by 9 after allowing 52% shooting by the Wolverines, one of the poorer shooting teams in the conference and that wasn't nearly the more embarrassing loss of the two they registered this week. They got smoked by Penn State by 24 in a game where they mustered just 41 points in a brick city effort, shooting just 18-52 and 2-21 from three. Basically they can't shoot or play defense and are 4-9 in the Big Ten, just one game out of the cellar. I'm not even sure they're a NIT team. Maybe CBI. Sorry Loretta8.
2. Syracuse Orange. Another team that seems to find it's way into this section quite a bit lately, the Orange had yet another rough week, this time dropping a home game to Georgetown and then losing on the road at Louisville. That makes them 2-6 now since starting the year at 18-0, and although they aren't really in any danger of missing the NCAA Tournament their seed has slid rapidly, going from a possible #1 to #4 in the latest bracketology. They have two guaranteed wins in their final five games (DePaul and Rutgers at home), but a quick exit from the Big East tournament could get them down to a #5 and a matchup with a dreaded 12. If they end up against a team with quick, penetrating guards they're going to be in trouble. Actually, they're pretty much screwed and I don't see any way they make it out of the first weekend alive.
3. Missouri Valley Conference. Guess which conference basically guaranteed that they won't have an at-large team this year? Assuming you aren't a retard you probably figured out I'm talking about the Missouri Valley. Wichita State, the conference leader and a team that's 20-5, lost a home game to Southern Illinois, a team that you think is good until you remember that it's actually not 2005 anymore, and Northern Iowa, the third best team in the MVC, lost to Wichita as well as Evansville, continuing a losing streak that starting last week with a loss to Drake. UNI is definitely out, while Wichita's win over the Panthers keeps them barely hanging on by a string. They would probably need to win out and then make the MVC Tournament final to have a chance. Missouri State also has a chance, but they too would need to finish very, very strong. Looking more and more like a 1-bid league this year, even with a weak bubble and expanded field.
4. Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles. The weekend loss to Memphis really puts the Eagles in a bad spot, now a full game back atop the C-USA standings of co-leaders UAB and UTEP, and with only one win this year over an RPI Top 50 team their at large chances are fading. They still have home matches against both leaders and need to win those games and take care of business against the various other conference also-rans, but road games against UCF and Tulsa aren't going to be easy. Larry Eustachy has made USM relevant again within the conference, but will need a strong finish to make them relevant on a national level.
5. Utah State Aggies. So are we just going to have zero mid-major at-larges this year? Butler, Gonzaga, and Memphis were all givens in the past but most likely will all have to win their conference tournament, and now Utah State kicked away their chance at a bid on Wednesday by losing to Idaho. It sucks that they are basically eliminated from at-large consideration since they are 23-3, but it's their own fault. Their best win out of those 23 is probably their win over Long Beach, who ranks 116 in the RPI and 101 at kenpom.com. Yes, that's right, Utah State doesn't have a single win over an RPI top 100 foe, and they've only played two (Georgetown and BYU), leading to a ridiculous strength of schedule rank of 157. They get to play St. Mary's in Bracket Busters coming up here on Saturday which will help, but this loss to Idaho (RPI 156) is extremely damaging. Like crawling through a tunnel covered with razor wire and sharks.
For those who like Twins talk stick around. I'm aiming to get a Twins post up here on Tuesday.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Minnesota Gophers. Wow. That was pretty awesome. Not the loss to Illinois of course, which was pretty disappointing, but I was becoming convinced this team was coming apart at the seams and that they were going to lose to Iowa, sounding the death knell on the season. Instead, they went out and beat the Hawkeyes soundly by a final margin of 62-45 in a game that wasn't even that close and was never in doubt. This tells me that the team should be good enough to hang on to their NCAA bid, and hopefully Nolen will come back in March, and then we'll just see what we'll see.
Special shout-outs to Colt Iverson, Rodney Williams, and Maverick Ahanmisi for their play last night. Iverson looked like a 6-11 point guard in his role in the middle of the Gopher offense against the Iowa zone, consistently finding the open man and helping the team get open shots. He only ended up with 1 assists but he definitely was a big reason the Gophers shot well and controlled the game. Williams took over the game for a stretch, showing the actualization of his near limitless potential, even if it was too short-lived. Finally, Ahanmisi played his best 11 minutes as a collegian, scoring 7 points, dishing 2 assists, and most importantly looking like a legitimate Big Ten point guard. I'm not sure I'm quite ready to hand over the keys to him for next season, but I'm sold on him as a backup and he might end up pretty good later in his career.
So, yeah, Iowa is a bad team and this win isn't exactly like beating an NCAA tournament team or even an NIT team, but at least we know they aren't in a death spiral here, and should most likely still end up in the dance. And then hey, who knows, am I right?
2. Xavier Musketeers. Huge week for X, which starting off with them beating an NCAA bubble team in Georgia and ended wit them reasserting their A-10 dominance by knocking off Duquesne, the team they were tied with at the top of the conference standings, and they did it at Duquesne's place - whatever it's called and actually I don't even know where Duquesne is. I'm going to guess Massachusetts. Anyway, Xavier has overcome a rough start and is starting to round into form. Either they just needed some time to adjust at the beginning of the year or they really aren't that good - it's just that the A-10 is down this year. Tread lightly.
3. Wisconsin Badgers. Giving Ohio State their first loss will get you a mention here. And now they're 9-3 in the Big Ten, have basically solidified themselves as the second best team in the conference, and are looking like they're a Sweet 16 team with upside. Great. I still hate them. Seriously, how can they be this good with guys like Tim Jarmusz, Keaton Nankivil, and Mike Bruesewitz as integral cogs? Bo Ryan is a freaking wizard. Crap. I think I accidentally realized I respect him. Still hate him though.
4. Pitt Panthers. It's a wide open year with about 15-20 legit final four contenders, and nearly every team has some pretty severe flaws that could end up knocking them out early. The one exception I've found is Pitt, a very balanced team who showed some serious moxie this week, winning on the road at both West Virginia and Villanova, the first loss for Nova at home since 2007. And they did it without leading scorer and point guard Ashton Gibbs. They're a good offensive team, a good defensive team, they score inside, they score outside, and they have great guards - everything you could want for success in March. If I didn't hate the Pitt program so much, I'd be a huge fan. Damn you Carl Krauser.
5. St. Johns Red Storm. I feel like I'm writing about these guys almost every week, but this was another monster week for the resurgent storm, dismantling UCONN at home and then winning a very big bubble implications type of game on the road at Cincinnati. I don't know exactly where they rank on the bubble and a 14-9 overall record isn't pretty, but a 7-5 Big East record with wins now over Georgetown, Notre Dame, UCONN, and Duke tells me that based on talent this is absolutely an NCAA Tournament team, and an RPI of 20 with a strength of schedule ranked #2 says the same. They still have two gimmes in home games versus DePaul and South Florida, so at minimum they should end up at 9-9 in conference play. That's got to be good enough.
WHO SUCKED
1. Northwestern Wildcats. They seem to land here almost every week, don't they? I'm not even sure what else there is to write anymore, but they're just so hard to ignore because jesus. This week they lost to a bad Michigan team by 9 after allowing 52% shooting by the Wolverines, one of the poorer shooting teams in the conference and that wasn't nearly the more embarrassing loss of the two they registered this week. They got smoked by Penn State by 24 in a game where they mustered just 41 points in a brick city effort, shooting just 18-52 and 2-21 from three. Basically they can't shoot or play defense and are 4-9 in the Big Ten, just one game out of the cellar. I'm not even sure they're a NIT team. Maybe CBI. Sorry Loretta8.
2. Syracuse Orange. Another team that seems to find it's way into this section quite a bit lately, the Orange had yet another rough week, this time dropping a home game to Georgetown and then losing on the road at Louisville. That makes them 2-6 now since starting the year at 18-0, and although they aren't really in any danger of missing the NCAA Tournament their seed has slid rapidly, going from a possible #1 to #4 in the latest bracketology. They have two guaranteed wins in their final five games (DePaul and Rutgers at home), but a quick exit from the Big East tournament could get them down to a #5 and a matchup with a dreaded 12. If they end up against a team with quick, penetrating guards they're going to be in trouble. Actually, they're pretty much screwed and I don't see any way they make it out of the first weekend alive.
3. Missouri Valley Conference. Guess which conference basically guaranteed that they won't have an at-large team this year? Assuming you aren't a retard you probably figured out I'm talking about the Missouri Valley. Wichita State, the conference leader and a team that's 20-5, lost a home game to Southern Illinois, a team that you think is good until you remember that it's actually not 2005 anymore, and Northern Iowa, the third best team in the MVC, lost to Wichita as well as Evansville, continuing a losing streak that starting last week with a loss to Drake. UNI is definitely out, while Wichita's win over the Panthers keeps them barely hanging on by a string. They would probably need to win out and then make the MVC Tournament final to have a chance. Missouri State also has a chance, but they too would need to finish very, very strong. Looking more and more like a 1-bid league this year, even with a weak bubble and expanded field.
4. Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles. The weekend loss to Memphis really puts the Eagles in a bad spot, now a full game back atop the C-USA standings of co-leaders UAB and UTEP, and with only one win this year over an RPI Top 50 team their at large chances are fading. They still have home matches against both leaders and need to win those games and take care of business against the various other conference also-rans, but road games against UCF and Tulsa aren't going to be easy. Larry Eustachy has made USM relevant again within the conference, but will need a strong finish to make them relevant on a national level.
5. Utah State Aggies. So are we just going to have zero mid-major at-larges this year? Butler, Gonzaga, and Memphis were all givens in the past but most likely will all have to win their conference tournament, and now Utah State kicked away their chance at a bid on Wednesday by losing to Idaho. It sucks that they are basically eliminated from at-large consideration since they are 23-3, but it's their own fault. Their best win out of those 23 is probably their win over Long Beach, who ranks 116 in the RPI and 101 at kenpom.com. Yes, that's right, Utah State doesn't have a single win over an RPI top 100 foe, and they've only played two (Georgetown and BYU), leading to a ridiculous strength of schedule rank of 157. They get to play St. Mary's in Bracket Busters coming up here on Saturday which will help, but this loss to Idaho (RPI 156) is extremely damaging. Like crawling through a tunnel covered with razor wire and sharks.
For those who like Twins talk stick around. I'm aiming to get a Twins post up here on Tuesday.
Tuesday, March 2, 2010
Welcome to March
Yep, it's the best time of the year folks - March. And although everybody knows about and loves the big tournament, I am almost as entertained by all the conference tournaments going on as well, and they start this week - today, actually. As I do every year, I'm going to run them down for you with some mini-previews - mini-previews I'm pretty sure nobody reads, but I don't really care that much about you anyway. I like doing it, and I'm kind of in charge around here, so let's get to it. And if you're looking for a Michigan preview, it's in this post I put up yesterday.
These tournaments kick-off today:
OHIO VALLEY: It seems like Murray State has dominated this conference over the past couple of decades dating all the way back to Popeye Jones and his Shrek-like ears and this year is no exception. It's also one of the slowest paced and most deliberate conferences around, with all but the 1-15 Tennessee-Martin squad ranking in the bottom 50% of the nation in terms of tempo. Also known as Yawn City.
FAVORITE: Murray State. They ripped through the league this year at 17-1 and were 24-3 overall and actually have people talking about them in consideration for an at-large bid even though their best non-conference win was over East Tennessee State. Once again, most people are morons.
SLEEPER: Morehead State. They won this thing last year (and won the play-in game in the tourney), they were the only team to beat Murray in conference play this year, and they have future NBA second-round pick Kenneth Faried.
W's PICK: Morehead State. More experience, and I think Murry State is a bit overrated this year.
BIG SOUTH: One of the worst conferences in the Country, nobody can score the basketball in the Big South. The best squad in terms of offensive efficiency, Coastal Carolina, was no better
FAVORITE: Coastal Carolina.
SLEEPER: Radford. It's not easy to find a sleeper in a conference this bad, and as tempting as VMI is to pick due to their crazy style of play (#1 tempo, #347 defense) they are just not good enough this year, so I'm going with Radford. They have the best non-conference win out of anybody in the Big South (over George Mason), they already beat Coastal Carolina once, the have the likely conference POY in Artsiom Parakhouski, and they are in second place. Good enough for me.
W's PICK: Radford. I'm not picking a team called the Chanticleers that wears teal, so Radford gets the pick by default.
HORIZON: Same situation in the Horizon that we've had the last several years - Butler is the class of the league and the only one who will get an at-large bid if they need one. If the Bulldogs go the distance and win the Horizon crown it opens up a bid for one lucky bubble team. If they get knocked off, somebody like is going to be looking at an NIT berth.
FAVORITE: Butler.
SLEEPER: Detroit. They aren't the second-place team, or even third, fourth, or so on. They are actually in 7th and were just 9-9 in the Horizon, but they are dangerous. They are an experienced, talented team (with transfers from Indiana Eli Holman and Xavier Keeling) and they gave Butler all they could handle, losing by just two (in overtime) and five in their two meetings.
W's PICK: Butler. They are so far above and beyond everyone else in this conference they can walk their way to the championship.
BUBBLE WATCH
Only one game affecting the bubble last night (although if Texas hadn't pulled it out against Oklahoma we my have found the Longhorns suddenly questioning their credentials) and that was Utah State against Fresno, and the Aggies destroyed them by about 40. Utah State doesn't have a great profile, but they've won 14 in a row and have a nice win over BYU. With only one regular season game left (against New Mexico State) at this point Gopher fans have two things to root for, either an Aggie loss in the final game or early in the WAC tournament which would knock them out of at-large consideration or that they win the tournament. If USU gets all the way to the championship and then loses, I have a feeling they are in - which obviously knocks another bubble team out.
Tonight's Bubble Games (along with the Gophers/Michigan, which is again previewed right here):
Illinois @ Ohio State - Despite the 10-6 conference record the Illini are still shaky. With just this game and then a home tilt against Wisconsin left they probably need to get one more win.
Villanova @ Cincinnati - The Bearcats are the opposite of Illinois with a nice non-conference profile but have struggled in the Big East. This chance, at home, to grab a big-time win can't be squandered.
Vanderbilt @ Florida - The Gators are in pretty good shape, but a loss to Georgia last week put them back in question mark status. Beating Vandy will probably lock up the bid.
UTEP @ Marshall - Thanks to a strong run through C-USA, the Miners are in good shape. They can't afford more than maybe one more loss and Marshall is a tough team, so this is a big one.
South Florida @ DePaul - USF isn't even in ESPN's Bubble Watch right now, but if they win this and then knock off UCONN at home on Saturday that gets them to 9-9 in the Big East with wins over UCONN, Georgetown (road), and Pitt with only one really bad loss (Central Michigan). If that happens, they become an at-large threat depending on their Big East tournament performance.
Georgia Tech @ Clemson - Both teams are in good shape, so instead of an elimination game this more like a "win and you've guaranteed yourself a bid" game.
Louisville @ Marquette - Pretty much the same as above
But really, all that matters right now is this damn Gopher game tonight. I'm peeing in my pants scared right now. Please don't hurt me again Manny.
These tournaments kick-off today:
OHIO VALLEY: It seems like Murray State has dominated this conference over the past couple of decades dating all the way back to Popeye Jones and his Shrek-like ears and this year is no exception. It's also one of the slowest paced and most deliberate conferences around, with all but the 1-15 Tennessee-Martin squad ranking in the bottom 50% of the nation in terms of tempo. Also known as Yawn City.
FAVORITE: Murray State. They ripped through the league this year at 17-1 and were 24-3 overall and actually have people talking about them in consideration for an at-large bid even though their best non-conference win was over East Tennessee State. Once again, most people are morons.
SLEEPER: Morehead State. They won this thing last year (and won the play-in game in the tourney), they were the only team to beat Murray in conference play this year, and they have future NBA second-round pick Kenneth Faried.
W's PICK: Morehead State. More experience, and I think Murry State is a bit overrated this year.
BIG SOUTH: One of the worst conferences in the Country, nobody can score the basketball in the Big South. The best squad in terms of offensive efficiency, Coastal Carolina, was no better
FAVORITE: Coastal Carolina.
SLEEPER: Radford. It's not easy to find a sleeper in a conference this bad, and as tempting as VMI is to pick due to their crazy style of play (#1 tempo, #347 defense) they are just not good enough this year, so I'm going with Radford. They have the best non-conference win out of anybody in the Big South (over George Mason), they already beat Coastal Carolina once, the have the likely conference POY in Artsiom Parakhouski, and they are in second place. Good enough for me.
W's PICK: Radford. I'm not picking a team called the Chanticleers that wears teal, so Radford gets the pick by default.
HORIZON: Same situation in the Horizon that we've had the last several years - Butler is the class of the league and the only one who will get an at-large bid if they need one. If the Bulldogs go the distance and win the Horizon crown it opens up a bid for one lucky bubble team. If they get knocked off, somebody like is going to be looking at an NIT berth.
FAVORITE: Butler.
SLEEPER: Detroit. They aren't the second-place team, or even third, fourth, or so on. They are actually in 7th and were just 9-9 in the Horizon, but they are dangerous. They are an experienced, talented team (with transfers from Indiana Eli Holman and Xavier Keeling) and they gave Butler all they could handle, losing by just two (in overtime) and five in their two meetings.
W's PICK: Butler. They are so far above and beyond everyone else in this conference they can walk their way to the championship.
BUBBLE WATCH
Only one game affecting the bubble last night (although if Texas hadn't pulled it out against Oklahoma we my have found the Longhorns suddenly questioning their credentials) and that was Utah State against Fresno, and the Aggies destroyed them by about 40. Utah State doesn't have a great profile, but they've won 14 in a row and have a nice win over BYU. With only one regular season game left (against New Mexico State) at this point Gopher fans have two things to root for, either an Aggie loss in the final game or early in the WAC tournament which would knock them out of at-large consideration or that they win the tournament. If USU gets all the way to the championship and then loses, I have a feeling they are in - which obviously knocks another bubble team out.
Tonight's Bubble Games (along with the Gophers/Michigan, which is again previewed right here):
Illinois @ Ohio State - Despite the 10-6 conference record the Illini are still shaky. With just this game and then a home tilt against Wisconsin left they probably need to get one more win.
Villanova @ Cincinnati - The Bearcats are the opposite of Illinois with a nice non-conference profile but have struggled in the Big East. This chance, at home, to grab a big-time win can't be squandered.
Vanderbilt @ Florida - The Gators are in pretty good shape, but a loss to Georgia last week put them back in question mark status. Beating Vandy will probably lock up the bid.
UTEP @ Marshall - Thanks to a strong run through C-USA, the Miners are in good shape. They can't afford more than maybe one more loss and Marshall is a tough team, so this is a big one.
South Florida @ DePaul - USF isn't even in ESPN's Bubble Watch right now, but if they win this and then knock off UCONN at home on Saturday that gets them to 9-9 in the Big East with wins over UCONN, Georgetown (road), and Pitt with only one really bad loss (Central Michigan). If that happens, they become an at-large threat depending on their Big East tournament performance.
Georgia Tech @ Clemson - Both teams are in good shape, so instead of an elimination game this more like a "win and you've guaranteed yourself a bid" game.
Louisville @ Marquette - Pretty much the same as above
But really, all that matters right now is this damn Gopher game tonight. I'm peeing in my pants scared right now. Please don't hurt me again Manny.
Sunday, March 22, 2009
Weekend Review
Hello all, back from Chicago and we all made it home alive. It was an excellent weekend that involved watching Dayton beat West Virginia at a Dayton bar and realizing all Dayton fans are idiots like the guy who usually sits next to us at Williams, playing Yahtzee for three hours at the bar, a lot of discussion of westerns, trainwrecks, boxcars, and other deviant behaviors, some excellent wings, several threatening text messages from Mama Dawger, a Madden draft, Dawger passing out at the bar by 9pm the first night, me losing two elite 8 teams in the first round, Bogart going 5-0 on his $100 bets but still barely breaking even due to his inability to get an OVER/UNDER right, and playing Madden on a 12 foot TV.
I won't spend much time breaking it down, but I do want to relay one specific story, however, and it's the way the trip kicked off. Dawger and Snake came to the airport together, although Dawger was on a different flight than Snake and I. I was surprised when I saw Dawg because I thought he was flying Southwest, and they fly out of the Humphrey terminal. So I said, "Aren't you flying out of Humphrey?" and I get a look back like I'm an idiot and a "No, dummy." well guess what? Yep, he ended up having to run all the way to what he thought was his gate at Lindbergh because he waited too long to head down there, and then they told him he was supposed to fly out of Humphrey. This was about 10 minutes before his flight was scheduled to take off.
So he's got to run all the way to the shuttle, take the shuttle from terminal to terminal, and then get through security again and get to his gate. Naturally, that's impossible. So instead he had to pay to switch to a later flight. Then, when Bogart picked up Snake and I at the airport, we decided not to wait around for Dawger to finally show, so he had to take a cab to Bogart's mansion. He pretty much spent somewhere in the ballpark of $100, all because he's an idiot. Good stuff.
On to the sports,
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. The Big East. Seven teams invited to the tournament, five in the sweet 16 with a sixth (Marquette) who took a third-seeded Missouri team right down to the wire without it's possibly best player. Every said the Big East was the best conference, and that put a lot of pressure on the teams to play up to that standard. They certainly have. Although unlikely, because Syracuse would have to beat not only Oklahoma but also likely North Carolina, we could be heading for an all-Big East Final Four. Louisville, UCONN, and Pitt have the inside track, but Villanova could also surprise.
2. Cole Aldrich. Just in case you didn't already feel enough pain every time you hear his name mentioned, Aldrich got to play in the Metrodome for the first two rounds and put on a show in front of the home crowd. He had a good game in the Jayhawks ten point win over North Dakota State with 23 points and 13 rebounds, and then followed that up with a dominating 13 points, 20 rebounds, and 10 blocks in a stomping of Dayton to put Kansas in the sweet sixteen. It was just the sixth triple double in NCAA Tournament history since steals, blocks, and assists became official stats in 1986, and the first since Dwayne Wade in 2003. Interestingly, both of the last two were at the metrodome, both had Snacks and Old Man W in attendance, and both I went out of town instead of going to the game in person.
3. Blake Griffin. I don't know if you noticed or not, but this guy is really, really, good. Seriously, it's like watching old footage of Wilt Chamberlain dominated poor slow white guys when you watch Griffin play. His combination of size, strength, athleticism, pimpitude, and speed is rarely seen, and if he's not the first overall pick in the NBA draft it'll automatically become the worst pick ever. Griffin put up 28 points and 13 rebounds in the Sooners' opening round win over poor little Morgan State, and he then followed it up with 33 points and 17 rebounds in their surprisingly tough 73-63 win over Michigan. He's so good, the over/under line for his total rebounds was set at 14.5 for the Michigan game. Crazy Papa Griffin (have you seen this guy? Yikes) must be so proud - until he looks over at older brother Tito Griffin.
4. Orlando Mendez-Valdez. Enough of the big guys, let's talk point guards. One of the most impressive guys we watched over the weekend was Mendez-Valdez, aka Taco Hawk aka Magic Taco, the point guard for Western Kentucky who almost single-handedly knocked Gonzaga out of the tournament. He had a good game in the first round upset of Illinois, going for 11 points, 7 rebounds and 6 assists, but then torched Gonzaga in round 2 with 25 points (including 7-10 on three pointers) and 7 assists to just one turnover. Unfortunately the Hilltoppers couldn't quite pull off a second upset, as Jeremy Pargo hit a leaner at the end to finish WKU's run, and Taco Hawk's career, with the Bulldgos pulling it out 83-81. Godspeed Magic Taco. We hardly knew you, but you will be missed.
5. A.J. Price. Watching UCONN destroy Chattanooga 103-47 and then Texas A&M 92-66 one thing is clear; the rest of the country is damn lucky Jerome Dyson got hurt. Even without him, the Huskies might be the favorite to win the whole thing, and point guard AJ Price is a big reason. He lit up Chattanooga for 20 in just 27 minutes, and then followed it up by hitting A&M for 27 points and 8 assists. UCONN will have a very tough elite 8 game against either Missouri or Memphis (assuming they beat Purdue) but if I had to pick all over again, they would be my choice to win - which pretty much guarantees a Purdue upset.
WHO SUCKED
1. The Pac 10. Honest to god, I didn't watch nearly enough Pac 10 games this year because if I had realized they played this piss poor of defense I would never had picked even one team to advance. Watching UCLA give up layup after layup to Villanova was like watching team of retarded fourth graders play the globetrotters. Also had a chance to watch Arizona State against Syracuse, and they were just as bad. Ugly. The Pac had six invites, and only the team that probably shouldn't have gotten one, Arizona, made it out of the weekend.
Cal was seeded higher than Maryland but let the Terps shoot 49% and lost. UCLA beat VCU thanks to them having zero idea what to do down 1 with ten seconds left and the ball, but then got the absolute shit kicked out of them by Nova, giving up 46% shooting which should have been higher but towards the end the Wildcats just started chucking up anything for fun. Washington was one of only two teams seeded #4 or better to not make it out of the weekend, thanks to a loss to Purdue, and even though USC and Arizona St won their first games and were then expected to lose their second, the way these guys play out west is soft and weak. Really wish I had known that before I put ASU and UCLA in the sweet 16.
2. James Harden. Speaking of Arizona State, other than their piss poor girl style defense, they also had no chance of winning thanks to James Harden, likely a top five pick in the NBA draft who refused to show up this weekend. They won their first round game over Temple despite Harden, who shot just 1-8 and scored only 9 points. They were then bounced by an infinitely better Syracuse team, with Harden once again not showing up, going just 2-10 and scoring just 10 points. Unacceptable, especially since he led his team with 20.1ppg in the regular season, and shot over 50%. Even more troubling is that Harden scored 10 points or less six times this season and three of those are in the Sun Devils last three games. Maybe he's a choker, or maybe he's broken, but if I'm going to draft him into the NBA, I'm very nervous.
3. Wake Forest. The only top four team to lose in the first round, the former #1 ranked Demon Deacons not only got beat by Cleveland State, but they straight up got their asses beat, losing 84-69 in a game that honestly probably wasn't that close, ending the year on a 2-game losing streak after losing in their first game of the ACC tournament as well. How ugly was it? Wake's 18 turnovers weren't even the worst part, nor were the 7 by Jeff Teague alone. Wake's defense was the truly awful part, allowing Cleveland State to shoot 48% from the floor, when they shot just 43% for the season, and turning them over just 10 times when they averaged 14 per game during the season. Even worse, the 84 points the Vikings scored was their highest total this season. With Teague, Al-Faroque Aminu, and Josh Johnson all possibly going pro, who knows what direction the program is heading.
4. The State of Utah. Three NCAA bids for the six Utah D-I teams, which should have been four if Weber State hadn't choked in the Big Sky Tournament, and zero wins, zero teams advancing. Utah State looked like absolute garbage other than a little run towards the end when it was pretty much too late, losing to Marquette while refusing to make a shot and not giving it to the Big Ginger enough. Utah, although catching a bit of a bad break by getting the best of the 12 seeds, was still a favorite and probably shouldn't have let Arizona shoot 55%, and BYU was a favorite over Texas A&M (8 over a 9) but got rolled 79-66, losing to the Aggies in the first round for the second year in a row. I'd also like to point out once again that the state of Utah has six division I basketball programs, and Minnesota still has just the one for some reason.
5. Clemson. It wouldn't have been too hard to just include the ACC here, since Wake (see above), Clemson, Florida State, and Boston College all managed to disappoint with first round losses, but Maryland's nice win and the success of UNC and Duke will keep them from being labeled a disappointment - at least for now. Clemson, however, is most definitely a disappointment and continues to come up short, year-after-year. This year, the 7th seeded Tigers, who started 16-0 and at one point were ranked 10th in the country, lost to who we know is a pretty bad Michigan team to end their season early. This season is similar to last year, when they Tigers started 12-1 and were ranked as highly as #15, then limped to a 5 seed and lost to Villanova in the first round. Which was similar to the previous season, when they started 17-0, were ranked 14th, and then crashed and missed the NCAA tournament altogether. Which was similar to the previous season when they started 11-0 and didn't make the tournament. Seriously, I think it's time to just stop taking them seriously.
That's it for now. I head to New Jersey for two nights tomorrow, so I'm sure I'll be back writing one if not both of them. Stay tuned.
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
Here's What's Going to Happen: West Region
Before I get started here, can I tell you something? I really hate Saint Patrick's day, I mean REALLY hate it. A bunch of morons run around like idiots. I was in a big seminar thing today with probably 100 people or so, and at least 75% of them were wearing green. What the hell? It's so stupid. Why do we even care about Ireland? And don't even get me started on all the amateur rookie drinker types who get bombed off their ass and have no idea how to act because they're morons. Did you know that the biggest Irish bar in Denver actually closes on St. Patricks Day? Despite all the money they could make, people are such morons that they close to avoid the idiocy. And did you know they have parades for this garbage? In both Minneapolis and St. Paul? Ugh, why? Seriously, look down at what you're wearing right now. If you have anything green on please find the nearest wall and run into head first, really fast.
Ugh. Let's move on.
FIRST ROUND
#1 UCONN over #16 Chattanooga. And it will be ugly.
#8 BYU over #9 Texas A&M. Not a big believer in the Aggies this year. And in doing my bracket, it seems I'm not very big on the Big 12 as a whole, even though KenPom has them as the fourth best conference, ahead of the Big Ten - who I am also not very high on. BYU is in the top 25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and are very, very good at shooting the basketball. Good enough for me.
#5 Purdue over #12 Northern Iowa. At first glance, I thought the Boilers got lucky in getting what I think is the worst #12 seed in the bracket, and who I consider the third best Missouri Valley team. Then I started thinking. Hummel is back, they were predicted to win the Big Ten preseason but had some struggles with his injury, and now that they are all together again, they won the Big Ten tournament. Plus they have the college KG.
#4 Washington over #13 Mississippi State. Like Washington here. Even though Miss State has maybe the best defensive player in the country in Jarvis Varnardo, overall the team is pretty bad and only got here by winning a weak SEC tournament. Not enough firepower or overall defense to hang.
#11 Utah State over #6 Marquette. Like you're surprised. Marquette just isn't the same team without James and have struggled against good teams with their only win in their last six without him over St Johns. They also struggle against bigger teams, and that's what the Aggies are. They still have plenty of firepower and Utah State can play some pretty awful defense at times, so this could go the other way, but I'm picking my second favorite team here.
#3 Missouri over #14 Cornell. I like Cornell, really I do, and I think there are some good teams they could beat but for the second year in a row they get a terrible matchup. Last year they couldn't deal with Stanford's twin towers, this year they won't be able to handle the uptempo style and athleticism Missouri brings.
#7 Cal over #10 Maryland. I know Snacks is in love with greasy haired foreigner Greivis Vasquez, but I don't trust the Terrapins despite their three top 10 wins. They also have a ton of bad losses. And you know what they say about guard play in the tournament and Cal has a couple of studs.
#2 Memphis over #15 CS-Northridge. CSN might actually be able to give Memphis a game for a half, but that's it.
SECOND ROUND
#1 UCONN over #8 BYU. This will be closer than you think, but superior talent wins out.
#5 Purdue over #4 Washington. I changed this one a couple of times, but I can't get over the fact that I think Purdue has underachieved all year and is ripe for a run with Hummel back. And I like the Huskies, but they just haven't impressed. They didn't really beat anybody outside the conference.
#3 Missouri over #11 Utah State. Similar to Cornell, I just don't think Utah State can keep up with a much more athletic Missouri team who will be able to shut down their perimeter game. Add in a very good offense for the Tigers going against a pretty poor USU defense, and this one will probably be a blowout.
#2 Memphis over #7 Cal. I expect the Bruins to give Memphis a hell of a game, and it wouldn't shock me to see them pull this one out. Memphis has done it with defense all year, but the last time they played a team with a backcourt as good as Cal's was way back in December when they played Syracuse - and they lost. I still think the Tigers pull it out in the end, as Cal's defense is just bad enough to keep them out of the sweet sixteen.
SWEET SIXTEEN
#1 UCONN over #5 Purdue. And here's where it ends for the Boilers. I have no idea not only how they will handle the size of the Huskies, but also how they will handle the quickness. They score, they rebound, they play great defense, and they get excellent guard play from AJ Price and company.
#3 Missouri over #2 Memphis. I've changed this one out a whole bunch of times, but I just can't get away from how good Missouri turned out to be this year. A top 20 offense and a top 10 defense at a pace that many teams can't handle, they not only won the Big 12 tournament, but also beat both Kansas and Oklahoma in the past month and a half. Their only real weakness is stopping the opponents offensive rebounding, and Memphis is good here with Dozier and Taggert so this could be the difference, but I think Missouri is the better team.
ELITE EIGHT
#1 UCONN over #3 Missouri. This will be a fun game. The teams matchup well, and Missouri can handle the Huskies' size, but in the end it will come down to guard play, and Price, Walker, and Austrie have the collection of mediocre bits over at Mizzou outclassed. One thing to watch is UCONN doesn't create many turnovers on defense, and if they don't disrupt Missouri on the offensive end this could end up going the other way.
Ugh. Let's move on.
FIRST ROUND
#1 UCONN over #16 Chattanooga. And it will be ugly.
#8 BYU over #9 Texas A&M. Not a big believer in the Aggies this year. And in doing my bracket, it seems I'm not very big on the Big 12 as a whole, even though KenPom has them as the fourth best conference, ahead of the Big Ten - who I am also not very high on. BYU is in the top 25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and are very, very good at shooting the basketball. Good enough for me.
#5 Purdue over #12 Northern Iowa. At first glance, I thought the Boilers got lucky in getting what I think is the worst #12 seed in the bracket, and who I consider the third best Missouri Valley team. Then I started thinking. Hummel is back, they were predicted to win the Big Ten preseason but had some struggles with his injury, and now that they are all together again, they won the Big Ten tournament. Plus they have the college KG.
#4 Washington over #13 Mississippi State. Like Washington here. Even though Miss State has maybe the best defensive player in the country in Jarvis Varnardo, overall the team is pretty bad and only got here by winning a weak SEC tournament. Not enough firepower or overall defense to hang.
#11 Utah State over #6 Marquette. Like you're surprised. Marquette just isn't the same team without James and have struggled against good teams with their only win in their last six without him over St Johns. They also struggle against bigger teams, and that's what the Aggies are. They still have plenty of firepower and Utah State can play some pretty awful defense at times, so this could go the other way, but I'm picking my second favorite team here.
#3 Missouri over #14 Cornell. I like Cornell, really I do, and I think there are some good teams they could beat but for the second year in a row they get a terrible matchup. Last year they couldn't deal with Stanford's twin towers, this year they won't be able to handle the uptempo style and athleticism Missouri brings.
#7 Cal over #10 Maryland. I know Snacks is in love with greasy haired foreigner Greivis Vasquez, but I don't trust the Terrapins despite their three top 10 wins. They also have a ton of bad losses. And you know what they say about guard play in the tournament and Cal has a couple of studs.
#2 Memphis over #15 CS-Northridge. CSN might actually be able to give Memphis a game for a half, but that's it.
SECOND ROUND
#1 UCONN over #8 BYU. This will be closer than you think, but superior talent wins out.
#5 Purdue over #4 Washington. I changed this one a couple of times, but I can't get over the fact that I think Purdue has underachieved all year and is ripe for a run with Hummel back. And I like the Huskies, but they just haven't impressed. They didn't really beat anybody outside the conference.
#3 Missouri over #11 Utah State. Similar to Cornell, I just don't think Utah State can keep up with a much more athletic Missouri team who will be able to shut down their perimeter game. Add in a very good offense for the Tigers going against a pretty poor USU defense, and this one will probably be a blowout.
#2 Memphis over #7 Cal. I expect the Bruins to give Memphis a hell of a game, and it wouldn't shock me to see them pull this one out. Memphis has done it with defense all year, but the last time they played a team with a backcourt as good as Cal's was way back in December when they played Syracuse - and they lost. I still think the Tigers pull it out in the end, as Cal's defense is just bad enough to keep them out of the sweet sixteen.
SWEET SIXTEEN
#1 UCONN over #5 Purdue. And here's where it ends for the Boilers. I have no idea not only how they will handle the size of the Huskies, but also how they will handle the quickness. They score, they rebound, they play great defense, and they get excellent guard play from AJ Price and company.
#3 Missouri over #2 Memphis. I've changed this one out a whole bunch of times, but I just can't get away from how good Missouri turned out to be this year. A top 20 offense and a top 10 defense at a pace that many teams can't handle, they not only won the Big 12 tournament, but also beat both Kansas and Oklahoma in the past month and a half. Their only real weakness is stopping the opponents offensive rebounding, and Memphis is good here with Dozier and Taggert so this could be the difference, but I think Missouri is the better team.
ELITE EIGHT
#1 UCONN over #3 Missouri. This will be a fun game. The teams matchup well, and Missouri can handle the Huskies' size, but in the end it will come down to guard play, and Price, Walker, and Austrie have the collection of mediocre bits over at Mizzou outclassed. One thing to watch is UCONN doesn't create many turnovers on defense, and if they don't disrupt Missouri on the offensive end this could end up going the other way.
Monday, March 16, 2009
Weekend Review
I'll be back over the next few days, and maybe even later today, to break down my picks region by region so you can steal them and win your office pools. For now, I'm going to go ahead and do a regular Weekend Review, but with a heavy NCAA tournament skew. I didn't figure out a way to fit this in, but I really don't understand why Arizona gets in over St. Mary's. Whatever. At least the Gophers are in and that's all that matters.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Gopher basketball. First of all for getting into the tournament. They may have faded down the stretch, and I still don't think the Louisville win was as impressive as it's now given credit for being, but at the start of the year I pegged a successful season as getting a bid to the tournament, and they did it. Not only that, but a #10 seed means they were about two spots better than hated Wisconsin, more on that later. The other awesome part is the matchup, because I think Texas is pretty bad this year. They were 22-11, and just 9-7 in a not very good Big 12 this year. They did beat UCLA and Villanova, but those were early in the season and the Longhorns faded towards the end, redeeming themselves a bit with a win over Oklahoma, but overall not a very impressive conference run. I'll have a more in depth matchup rundown later in a preview on Wednesday, but for now I'll just say that the Gophers can absolutely win this game.
2. USC. Obviously going into a conference tournament when you don't have a bid and then winning the whole thing is great, but the Trojans did it in impressive enough fashion that they likely would have been in even if they lost in the final, as shown by the committee giving them a 10 seed. After a fairly nondescript season that saw the Trojans go 9-9 in the Pac 10, they beat some very good teams in winning the Pac 10 tournament, knocking off three tournament bound teams in Cal, #15 UCLA, and then #23 Arizona State in the final. With a nice matchup - they play BC and then get Michigan State - the Trojans have a legit shot at the sweet 16. Demar Derozan and Taj Gibson are an excellent pair of weapons down low, and Daniel Hackett is an excellent scoring point guard. USC has battled themselves all year (Hackett and another guard almost got in a fight earlier this year) but if they can put it all behind them they could see themselves in the sweet 16.
3. Temple. They were probably good enough that they should have gotten an at-large, but probably didn't have the resume and needed to win the A-10 tournament to get in (although with an 11 seed they have made it anyway). And they did, beating top seed Xavier in the process and suddenly hot Duquesne in the final. Arizona State in the first round is a tough matchup for the Owls, but with Dionte Christmas averaging 19 a game, anything is possible (and if they win expect a slew of Christmas related puns). He's hot right now, scoring 20 against Xavier and 29 against Duquense in the A-10 final. I don't expect Temple to win, but it's going to be a hell of a game.
4. Utah State. Another team that might have gotten an invite either way, but probably needed to win their conference tournament to get in, the Aggies went ahead and did just that, beating Nevada by 10 on their home court to capture the WAC crown and get an 11 seed. I really like the matchup for Utah State against Marquette. The Eagles have been struggling since they lost point guard Dominic James for the year, and their weakness is against bigger and stronger teams. Utah State has some serious bulk and quality post players, so they will probably give the Eagles fits. They also some dead-eye three point shooters, so if Marquette doesn't play good perimeter defense they could get lit up. The Eagles have plenty of firepower on their own even without James, so this should be a pretty good first round matchup.
5. March Madness. It's been great so far, and now the big tournament gets going on Tuesday. I couldn't be happier.
WHO SUCKED
1. The East Region. Ugh, what a nightmare. I have no idea who to take out of this region, and not in a good way. #1 seed is Pitt, and Pitt sucks due to the curse of Brandin Knight. They pretty much choke every year, and I hate them, so I clearly cannot pick the Panthers. The second seed is Duke, and anybody who picks Duke to make the final four is clearly a communist. The third seed is Villanova, and they have Scottie Reynolds who will clearly and obviously shoot them right out of the tournament. My three least favorite college hoops programs are seriously Pitt, Duke, and Villanova, and now they're the top three seeds in a region. I hate to say it, but I might end up having to put Xavier in the Final Four, and that will feel weird. But, I must do what I must do. Stay tuned.
2. The SEC. I knew it was a down year, but holy cow it's bad in SEC land right now. LSU managed a 13-3 regular season record, but still only snagged a eight seed. The only other at-large from the conference was Tennessee, and they got a nine seed. The teams were so awful that they let a pretty horrible Mississippi State team win their tournament and steal a bid from San Diego State, and still only managed a 13 seed. Neither South Carolina at 10-6 or Florida at 9-7 didn't get in, mainly because despite all those conference wins neither team had a win over a top 50 RPI team. There's a reason Ken Pomeroy has this as the worst of the power conferences. And the team with the two of the most impressive non-conference victories, Arkansas with wins over Oklahoma and Texas, somehow managed to go 2-14 in the conference.
3. Teams chasing a #1 seed. Going into the conference tournaments North Carolina, Louisville, Pitt, UCONN, Memphis, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Michigan State were all possible number 1 seeds. Then they almost all dropped the ball, with only Memphis and Louisville winning their conference tournaments, and nobody else even made the conference final. North Carolina lost to Florida State, Pitt to West Virginia, UCONN to Syracuse, Kansas to Baylor, Oklahoma to Oklahoma State, and Michigan State to Ohio State. With all the carnage, it didn't matter much as UCONN, Pitt, and UNC all still grabbed #1s thanks to the losses, and apparently Memphis wasn't quite in line to get a 1 seed since they got a 2 even after winning C-USA - although it is the top #2, so they were close.
4. Team USA. In the World Baseball Classic, the US beat the Netherlands 9-3 on Sunday to avoid elimination, but that can't possibly begin to redeem them for their stinker on Saturday. Against Puerto Rico, they got absolutely destroyed 11-1, with the game ending after just seven innings because of the ten rule (yes they have that), and embarrassment of epic proportions. Jake Peavy went out and got absolutely rocked, giving up six hits and six runs in just two innings of work to put the US behind right away, although it probably wouldn't have mattered anyway. Javier Vazquez (!) completely shut the US down, including holding the first four hitters in the lineup (Shane Victorino, Derek Jeter, Chipper Jones, and Kevin Youkilis) to an 0-12 night. In relief, someone named Matt Thornton tried to close the door and attempted to pitch the seventh inning, but gave up four hits and four runs while recording just 2 outs to end the game thanks to the mercy rule. If the US can recover and end up winning this thing, all will be forgotten, but if they falter again you can bet this game will be the poster child for what went wrong.
5. Andy Glockner. SI.com's bubble watch writer, he managed to really tick Snacks off by saying the Gophers should be out of the tournament, and that Wisconsin was safely in. Clearly this all turned out to not be true, but here is an email exchange between Snacks and Glockner, that shows just how wacked Glockner really is. I have bolded my favorite parts.
First, Snacks writes to Glockner:
Mr. Glockner,
And Glockner's response, please pay attention to the ridiculousness:
It would appear they are willing to let pretty much anybody write anything these days. With Minnesota getting a 10 and Wisconsin a 12, it's pretty clear that Glockner is the new Pat Reusse.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Gopher basketball. First of all for getting into the tournament. They may have faded down the stretch, and I still don't think the Louisville win was as impressive as it's now given credit for being, but at the start of the year I pegged a successful season as getting a bid to the tournament, and they did it. Not only that, but a #10 seed means they were about two spots better than hated Wisconsin, more on that later. The other awesome part is the matchup, because I think Texas is pretty bad this year. They were 22-11, and just 9-7 in a not very good Big 12 this year. They did beat UCLA and Villanova, but those were early in the season and the Longhorns faded towards the end, redeeming themselves a bit with a win over Oklahoma, but overall not a very impressive conference run. I'll have a more in depth matchup rundown later in a preview on Wednesday, but for now I'll just say that the Gophers can absolutely win this game.
2. USC. Obviously going into a conference tournament when you don't have a bid and then winning the whole thing is great, but the Trojans did it in impressive enough fashion that they likely would have been in even if they lost in the final, as shown by the committee giving them a 10 seed. After a fairly nondescript season that saw the Trojans go 9-9 in the Pac 10, they beat some very good teams in winning the Pac 10 tournament, knocking off three tournament bound teams in Cal, #15 UCLA, and then #23 Arizona State in the final. With a nice matchup - they play BC and then get Michigan State - the Trojans have a legit shot at the sweet 16. Demar Derozan and Taj Gibson are an excellent pair of weapons down low, and Daniel Hackett is an excellent scoring point guard. USC has battled themselves all year (Hackett and another guard almost got in a fight earlier this year) but if they can put it all behind them they could see themselves in the sweet 16.
3. Temple. They were probably good enough that they should have gotten an at-large, but probably didn't have the resume and needed to win the A-10 tournament to get in (although with an 11 seed they have made it anyway). And they did, beating top seed Xavier in the process and suddenly hot Duquesne in the final. Arizona State in the first round is a tough matchup for the Owls, but with Dionte Christmas averaging 19 a game, anything is possible (and if they win expect a slew of Christmas related puns). He's hot right now, scoring 20 against Xavier and 29 against Duquense in the A-10 final. I don't expect Temple to win, but it's going to be a hell of a game.
4. Utah State. Another team that might have gotten an invite either way, but probably needed to win their conference tournament to get in, the Aggies went ahead and did just that, beating Nevada by 10 on their home court to capture the WAC crown and get an 11 seed. I really like the matchup for Utah State against Marquette. The Eagles have been struggling since they lost point guard Dominic James for the year, and their weakness is against bigger and stronger teams. Utah State has some serious bulk and quality post players, so they will probably give the Eagles fits. They also some dead-eye three point shooters, so if Marquette doesn't play good perimeter defense they could get lit up. The Eagles have plenty of firepower on their own even without James, so this should be a pretty good first round matchup.
5. March Madness. It's been great so far, and now the big tournament gets going on Tuesday. I couldn't be happier.
WHO SUCKED
1. The East Region. Ugh, what a nightmare. I have no idea who to take out of this region, and not in a good way. #1 seed is Pitt, and Pitt sucks due to the curse of Brandin Knight. They pretty much choke every year, and I hate them, so I clearly cannot pick the Panthers. The second seed is Duke, and anybody who picks Duke to make the final four is clearly a communist. The third seed is Villanova, and they have Scottie Reynolds who will clearly and obviously shoot them right out of the tournament. My three least favorite college hoops programs are seriously Pitt, Duke, and Villanova, and now they're the top three seeds in a region. I hate to say it, but I might end up having to put Xavier in the Final Four, and that will feel weird. But, I must do what I must do. Stay tuned.
2. The SEC. I knew it was a down year, but holy cow it's bad in SEC land right now. LSU managed a 13-3 regular season record, but still only snagged a eight seed. The only other at-large from the conference was Tennessee, and they got a nine seed. The teams were so awful that they let a pretty horrible Mississippi State team win their tournament and steal a bid from San Diego State, and still only managed a 13 seed. Neither South Carolina at 10-6 or Florida at 9-7 didn't get in, mainly because despite all those conference wins neither team had a win over a top 50 RPI team. There's a reason Ken Pomeroy has this as the worst of the power conferences. And the team with the two of the most impressive non-conference victories, Arkansas with wins over Oklahoma and Texas, somehow managed to go 2-14 in the conference.
3. Teams chasing a #1 seed. Going into the conference tournaments North Carolina, Louisville, Pitt, UCONN, Memphis, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Michigan State were all possible number 1 seeds. Then they almost all dropped the ball, with only Memphis and Louisville winning their conference tournaments, and nobody else even made the conference final. North Carolina lost to Florida State, Pitt to West Virginia, UCONN to Syracuse, Kansas to Baylor, Oklahoma to Oklahoma State, and Michigan State to Ohio State. With all the carnage, it didn't matter much as UCONN, Pitt, and UNC all still grabbed #1s thanks to the losses, and apparently Memphis wasn't quite in line to get a 1 seed since they got a 2 even after winning C-USA - although it is the top #2, so they were close.
4. Team USA. In the World Baseball Classic, the US beat the Netherlands 9-3 on Sunday to avoid elimination, but that can't possibly begin to redeem them for their stinker on Saturday. Against Puerto Rico, they got absolutely destroyed 11-1, with the game ending after just seven innings because of the ten rule (yes they have that), and embarrassment of epic proportions. Jake Peavy went out and got absolutely rocked, giving up six hits and six runs in just two innings of work to put the US behind right away, although it probably wouldn't have mattered anyway. Javier Vazquez (!) completely shut the US down, including holding the first four hitters in the lineup (Shane Victorino, Derek Jeter, Chipper Jones, and Kevin Youkilis) to an 0-12 night. In relief, someone named Matt Thornton tried to close the door and attempted to pitch the seventh inning, but gave up four hits and four runs while recording just 2 outs to end the game thanks to the mercy rule. If the US can recover and end up winning this thing, all will be forgotten, but if they falter again you can bet this game will be the poster child for what went wrong.
5. Andy Glockner. SI.com's bubble watch writer, he managed to really tick Snacks off by saying the Gophers should be out of the tournament, and that Wisconsin was safely in. Clearly this all turned out to not be true, but here is an email exchange between Snacks and Glockner, that shows just how wacked Glockner really is. I have bolded my favorite parts.
First, Snacks writes to Glockner:
Mr. Glockner,
Are you kidding me? Please justify how Wisconsin is safe and Minnesota
is out. Minnesota has Wisconsin beat in almost every way - higher RPI,
better record against the top 50, better record against the top 100
AND they swept them. Oh, and Wisconsin beat no one in non-conference
and Minnesota beat Louisville. The only thing Wisconsin has is one
more league win (and they played Iowa twice, Minnesota only once).
There is honestly no justification for putting Wisconsin ahead of
Minnesota. Please look at the numbers and not just the name of the
team. Also, it is laughable to say that Minnesota and Penn State's
resumes couldn't be more the same. 30 spots in the RPI means nothing?
Please. I'd love to hear a response, I don't understand how you have a job doing this with these ridiculous decsions.
Thanks.
And Glockner's response, please pay attention to the ridiculousness:
You got me, man. I just throw darts. :)
I broke down the Big Ten bubble on Monday, after the regular season was complete. Wisconsin has played a much harder schedule overall, played a schedule that at the time was judged to be more difficult in the Big Ten (although including Indiana again seems to have changed that), finished ahead of Minnesota in the league standings (despite being swept, so they were three games better over the other 15 games), and had a better record against the "peer bubble teams" in the league and finished stronger down the stretch.
I'm not 100 percent comfortable with having Wisconsin as high in the bracket as they are, but I do think they're ahead of Penn State and Minnesota. I had them ahead going into the postseason and a win over Northwestern doesn't put Minnesota past them.
Now if you want to debate Minnesota vs. Penn State ...
It would appear they are willing to let pretty much anybody write anything these days. With Minnesota getting a 10 and Wisconsin a 12, it's pretty clear that Glockner is the new Pat Reusse.
Monday, March 2, 2009
Weekend Review
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Providence. I mentioned this previously, but the Friars win over Pitt on Tuesday was a huge lift to the Friars’ postseason chances. They still have a lot of work to do, but that was a step in the right direction. They also picked up a huge win at Rutgers on Saturday – not hard as in Rutgers is any good, they aren’t, but good to go on the road at a traditionally tough place to play and not show any letdown, going in and winning 73-66. They are doing it with defense, forcing both Pitt and Rutgers into 16 turnovers, a very good sign. Plenty of work left to do, and they close out the season on the road against a surprisingly very good Villanova team (despite Scotty Reynolds) in a game they probably have to win to have any hope. But if the Friars can pull that upset off and win a game in the Big East tournament, I don’t see any way they don’t make it.
2. BYU. Another team looking for a bid, the Cougars had a huge week coming up with wins over fellow Mountain West contenders San Diego State 69-59 and Utah 63-50. The win over the league leading Utes is huge, giving BYU its third victory over an RPI Top 50 opponent. With games at Wyoming and at home versus Air Force remaining, BYU should end up finishing 12-4 and second in the Mountain West. The real question is will that be enough? The computer numbers are pretty good, but they are just 3-5 against RPI Top 50 teams, which looks bad when compared to fellow conference bubble team UNLV who is 5-2. There isn’t much here outside the conference, so BYU better get to at least the MWC tournament finals, although the RPI ranking of #21 will certainly help.
3. Oklahoma State. Here’s a weird team that has come out of nowhere to suddenly be included in the bubble conversation, and they just got a signature win they badly needed by beating Texas 68-59 on Saturday, running their winning streak to five straight and pushing their conference record to 8-6, good enough for fourth in the Big 12. A pretty aggressive non-conference schedule and a slow start had them off the radar, but with the recent winning streak that same aggressive schedule has them with some pretty good numbers (#30 RPI, #11 SOS). They haven’t fared well against top teams, going just 3-8 vs. RPI Top 50 and 7-9 vs. The Top 100, but if they can split the last two (home vs. Kansas State, @ Oklahoma) that would put them at 20-10, 9-7 in conference. Take that, along with the good computer numbers and strong finish, and the Cowboys are looking pretty good for a bid.
4. Kansas. They certainly don’t need any help to get in the tournament, but suddenly a “depleted” Kansas team is playing for a possible two seed and took a good step in the right direction this week. They are 13-1 in the Big 12, and just beat the only other two ranked teams in the conference this week, taking down a Blake Griffin-less Oklahoma on the road 87-78 and followed it up by whooping #11 Missouri 90-65 in Lawrence. You knew Sherron Collins would be a stud this year, but the biggest reason for the team’s success despite losing so much talent after last year’s Championship has been Cole Aldrich – and yes, it pains me greatly to say that. After minimal playing time last year, he’s jumped to 30 minutes, 15 points, and 10 rebounds per game, put up 19 and 14 against Missouri, and is projected to be a top five NBA after next season by NBAdraft.net There are a bunch of newcomers who are also helping out, but Cole is definitely the biggest reason the Jayhawks are an unexpected Final Four contender.
5. Geoff Ogilvy. Ogilvy didn’t just win the Accenture Match Play Championship, he dominated it. In a week when Tiger Woods was the main story, Ogilvy moved passed him into first place on the all-time Accenture winning percentage, going 6-0 to push his record to 17-2 overall, a .895 winning percentage – ahead of Woods who is 32-7, .821. Ogilvy beat Paul Casey in the championship 4 & 3, following a run that saw him beat the gay Stewart Cink, teen phenom Rory McIlroy, Dr. Acula’s boyfriend Camilo Villegas, the Chinese Cowboy Shingo Katayama, and Kevin Sutherland. Ogilvy shot a combined 25 under in his last 66 holes (3 matches worth) and never trailed against any of his last three opponents. Ogilvy tends to play better in big events, this is his second time winning the Accenture, winning in 2006 as well as winning the US Open that year. He’s definitely one to watch in the majors this season.
WHO SUCKED
1. Siena. Well, the good ole DWG Jinx strikes again. This time hitting the MAAC leading Saints who, after last weekend’s win over Northern Iowa in Bracket Busters, looked to have a chance, however slim, at an at-large NCAA bid if they didn’t win their conference tournament. You can pretty much forget it now, as Niagara’s Purple Eagles knocked off Siena on Friday, 100-85. The Saints played a tough schedule, but were unable to grab a signature win, with their best win on the season coming against the previously mentioned Purple Eagles. Unfortunately, letting Niagara shoot 52% from the floor was too much to overcome, and the talented, and dangerous, Saints will have to win the conference tournament in order to get a chance to repeat their success from last season.
2. Utah State. The Aggies were in a similar situation as Siena, most likely needing to win their conference tournament to get in, but having an outside shot at an at-large. And, just like Siena, those hopes are now over with their loss at Nevada on Thursday night. It’s just the Aggies second WAC loss, the other being at Boise State, and losing on the road to the #2 and #4 teams in your conference isn’t anything to be ashamed of, but when your at-large resume contains only one win over a RPI top 50 opponent and your strength of schedule is 133, you can’t really afford any losses. So Utah State will now need to win the WAC tournament, and, bad news Aggies’ fans, it’s held in Reno on Nevada’s home floor. Ruh roh.
3. Kentucky. Another team that really hurt itself, the Wildcats haven’t completely locked themselves out of at-large consideration, but it’s really, really close. They completely bombed this week, going into South Carolina and getting steamrolled 77-59 and then following that up on Saturday by dropping a home game to LSU 73-70. Kentucky has been done in by poor perimeter shooting and sloppy ballhandling, as they shot just 7-26 from three in the two games and turned it over 20 and 15 times – trends that need to stop if they have any chance of making the tournament. They have Georgia at home in an easy win, and then close out the regular season by traveling to Florida in what will be a must win. If they can’t win both of their remaining games, the Cats might need to win the SEC tournament to get in.
4. Arizona. Another Wildcat team that didn’t do themselves any favors, Arizona also went 0-2 this week in getting swept by the Washington schools. This was following up a loss to Arizona State, and their safe NCAA hopes are suddenly looking a little more precarious. Losing on the road to a very good Washington team is nothing to be ashamed of, but they needed to win at Wash State, and unfortunately didn’t even bother to show up, getting blown out 69-53. The Wildcats have two home games to close out the season, playing Stanford and Cal this week, and probably need to win both or head into the Pac 10 tournament very nervously. Arizona has some very good scorers in Wise, Budinger, and Jordan Hill, but they need to fix their rebounding issues. Both Washington schools outrebounded them by 9 in their most recent games, and it’s been a season long issue with Arizona being one of the worst in the country in keeping team’s off their offensive boards. Couple that with their inability to turn other teams over, and they are giving up a boatload of shots every game.
5. Marquette. They certainly aren’t in any danger of not making the tournament at 12-4 in the Big East, and actually their 0-2 week wouldn’t normally land them in the WHO SUCKED column since those two losses were at Louisville and versus UCONN. The reason they are here is because they lost their senior leader, starting point guard, and top four conference assist man Dominic James for the season thanks to a broken foot suffered against UCONN. This takes the Golden Eagles from a sleeper final four contender to a sweet 16 max upside type team. They still have their top 3 scorers, and Jerel McNeal and Wes Mathews are still one of the top guard tandems in the country, but it will be very difficult to replace James. Even though they managed to hang tough with Louisville yesterday, losing just 62-58, but they also managed to scrounge up a total of just seven assists in the whole game, where James averaged five per contest by himself.
1. Providence. I mentioned this previously, but the Friars win over Pitt on Tuesday was a huge lift to the Friars’ postseason chances. They still have a lot of work to do, but that was a step in the right direction. They also picked up a huge win at Rutgers on Saturday – not hard as in Rutgers is any good, they aren’t, but good to go on the road at a traditionally tough place to play and not show any letdown, going in and winning 73-66. They are doing it with defense, forcing both Pitt and Rutgers into 16 turnovers, a very good sign. Plenty of work left to do, and they close out the season on the road against a surprisingly very good Villanova team (despite Scotty Reynolds) in a game they probably have to win to have any hope. But if the Friars can pull that upset off and win a game in the Big East tournament, I don’t see any way they don’t make it.
2. BYU. Another team looking for a bid, the Cougars had a huge week coming up with wins over fellow Mountain West contenders San Diego State 69-59 and Utah 63-50. The win over the league leading Utes is huge, giving BYU its third victory over an RPI Top 50 opponent. With games at Wyoming and at home versus Air Force remaining, BYU should end up finishing 12-4 and second in the Mountain West. The real question is will that be enough? The computer numbers are pretty good, but they are just 3-5 against RPI Top 50 teams, which looks bad when compared to fellow conference bubble team UNLV who is 5-2. There isn’t much here outside the conference, so BYU better get to at least the MWC tournament finals, although the RPI ranking of #21 will certainly help.
3. Oklahoma State. Here’s a weird team that has come out of nowhere to suddenly be included in the bubble conversation, and they just got a signature win they badly needed by beating Texas 68-59 on Saturday, running their winning streak to five straight and pushing their conference record to 8-6, good enough for fourth in the Big 12. A pretty aggressive non-conference schedule and a slow start had them off the radar, but with the recent winning streak that same aggressive schedule has them with some pretty good numbers (#30 RPI, #11 SOS). They haven’t fared well against top teams, going just 3-8 vs. RPI Top 50 and 7-9 vs. The Top 100, but if they can split the last two (home vs. Kansas State, @ Oklahoma) that would put them at 20-10, 9-7 in conference. Take that, along with the good computer numbers and strong finish, and the Cowboys are looking pretty good for a bid.
4. Kansas. They certainly don’t need any help to get in the tournament, but suddenly a “depleted” Kansas team is playing for a possible two seed and took a good step in the right direction this week. They are 13-1 in the Big 12, and just beat the only other two ranked teams in the conference this week, taking down a Blake Griffin-less Oklahoma on the road 87-78 and followed it up by whooping #11 Missouri 90-65 in Lawrence. You knew Sherron Collins would be a stud this year, but the biggest reason for the team’s success despite losing so much talent after last year’s Championship has been Cole Aldrich – and yes, it pains me greatly to say that. After minimal playing time last year, he’s jumped to 30 minutes, 15 points, and 10 rebounds per game, put up 19 and 14 against Missouri, and is projected to be a top five NBA after next season by NBAdraft.net There are a bunch of newcomers who are also helping out, but Cole is definitely the biggest reason the Jayhawks are an unexpected Final Four contender.
5. Geoff Ogilvy. Ogilvy didn’t just win the Accenture Match Play Championship, he dominated it. In a week when Tiger Woods was the main story, Ogilvy moved passed him into first place on the all-time Accenture winning percentage, going 6-0 to push his record to 17-2 overall, a .895 winning percentage – ahead of Woods who is 32-7, .821. Ogilvy beat Paul Casey in the championship 4 & 3, following a run that saw him beat the gay Stewart Cink, teen phenom Rory McIlroy, Dr. Acula’s boyfriend Camilo Villegas, the Chinese Cowboy Shingo Katayama, and Kevin Sutherland. Ogilvy shot a combined 25 under in his last 66 holes (3 matches worth) and never trailed against any of his last three opponents. Ogilvy tends to play better in big events, this is his second time winning the Accenture, winning in 2006 as well as winning the US Open that year. He’s definitely one to watch in the majors this season.
WHO SUCKED
1. Siena. Well, the good ole DWG Jinx strikes again. This time hitting the MAAC leading Saints who, after last weekend’s win over Northern Iowa in Bracket Busters, looked to have a chance, however slim, at an at-large NCAA bid if they didn’t win their conference tournament. You can pretty much forget it now, as Niagara’s Purple Eagles knocked off Siena on Friday, 100-85. The Saints played a tough schedule, but were unable to grab a signature win, with their best win on the season coming against the previously mentioned Purple Eagles. Unfortunately, letting Niagara shoot 52% from the floor was too much to overcome, and the talented, and dangerous, Saints will have to win the conference tournament in order to get a chance to repeat their success from last season.
2. Utah State. The Aggies were in a similar situation as Siena, most likely needing to win their conference tournament to get in, but having an outside shot at an at-large. And, just like Siena, those hopes are now over with their loss at Nevada on Thursday night. It’s just the Aggies second WAC loss, the other being at Boise State, and losing on the road to the #2 and #4 teams in your conference isn’t anything to be ashamed of, but when your at-large resume contains only one win over a RPI top 50 opponent and your strength of schedule is 133, you can’t really afford any losses. So Utah State will now need to win the WAC tournament, and, bad news Aggies’ fans, it’s held in Reno on Nevada’s home floor. Ruh roh.
3. Kentucky. Another team that really hurt itself, the Wildcats haven’t completely locked themselves out of at-large consideration, but it’s really, really close. They completely bombed this week, going into South Carolina and getting steamrolled 77-59 and then following that up on Saturday by dropping a home game to LSU 73-70. Kentucky has been done in by poor perimeter shooting and sloppy ballhandling, as they shot just 7-26 from three in the two games and turned it over 20 and 15 times – trends that need to stop if they have any chance of making the tournament. They have Georgia at home in an easy win, and then close out the regular season by traveling to Florida in what will be a must win. If they can’t win both of their remaining games, the Cats might need to win the SEC tournament to get in.
4. Arizona. Another Wildcat team that didn’t do themselves any favors, Arizona also went 0-2 this week in getting swept by the Washington schools. This was following up a loss to Arizona State, and their safe NCAA hopes are suddenly looking a little more precarious. Losing on the road to a very good Washington team is nothing to be ashamed of, but they needed to win at Wash State, and unfortunately didn’t even bother to show up, getting blown out 69-53. The Wildcats have two home games to close out the season, playing Stanford and Cal this week, and probably need to win both or head into the Pac 10 tournament very nervously. Arizona has some very good scorers in Wise, Budinger, and Jordan Hill, but they need to fix their rebounding issues. Both Washington schools outrebounded them by 9 in their most recent games, and it’s been a season long issue with Arizona being one of the worst in the country in keeping team’s off their offensive boards. Couple that with their inability to turn other teams over, and they are giving up a boatload of shots every game.
5. Marquette. They certainly aren’t in any danger of not making the tournament at 12-4 in the Big East, and actually their 0-2 week wouldn’t normally land them in the WHO SUCKED column since those two losses were at Louisville and versus UCONN. The reason they are here is because they lost their senior leader, starting point guard, and top four conference assist man Dominic James for the season thanks to a broken foot suffered against UCONN. This takes the Golden Eagles from a sleeper final four contender to a sweet 16 max upside type team. They still have their top 3 scorers, and Jerel McNeal and Wes Mathews are still one of the top guard tandems in the country, but it will be very difficult to replace James. Even though they managed to hang tough with Louisville yesterday, losing just 62-58, but they also managed to scrounge up a total of just seven assists in the whole game, where James averaged five per contest by himself.
Monday, February 23, 2009
Weekend Review
I certainly can't say the Gophers are awesome after that horrid showing against Michigan, but I also can't say the sucked since the did everything I could have asked against Northwestern. More on the games here and here.
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Siena. The Saints went out and did what the needed to do, beating Northern Iowa in their bracket buster game 81-75 in Albany. It ended up looking less impressive than it started out, as Siena took a 40-19 lead into the half, only to let Northern Iowa make a game of it in the second half, but it’s a win, and a big win at that. UNI isn’t an elite opponent, but they are close to the same level as Siena, and their RPI of 88 makes them the second best win the Saints had in non-conference, and just their fourth win over a top 100 opponent.
The Saints have dominated their conference, at 15-1, and played a good non-conference schedule, which ranked the 24th toughest in the nation thanks to games against Tennessee and Oklahoma State at a neutral site, and games at Pitt and Kansas. That’s pretty much all you can do, short of winning the conference tournament. They’ve already wrapped up the MAAC regular season crown, and if they can get to the finals of the conference tourney, they should be in. With Kenny Hasbrouck and the rest of the crew back from the team that upset Vandy in the first round last year, they could do even more damage this time around.
2. Florida State. The Seminoles may have just guaranteed themselves a spot in the NCAA tournament this week, going 2-0 with wins at home over Miami and on the road at Virginia Tech. Those two wins moved them to 8-4 in the ACC, tied for second just a game behind North Carolina. Toss in non-conference wins at Cincinnati, at Cal, and home over Florida, and they are suddenly a surprising lock for the dance.
Interestingly, they’ve done it through defense. Old school FSU teams, going back to the Cassell and Bobby Sura days even, relied more on offensive fire-power to win, but this year’s version play tough defense (ranked 11th in the country in defensive efficiency) and relies on the senior leadership of point guard Toney Douglas. He leads the team at 20.5 points per game, second in the ACC and the only double figure scorer on the Seminoles, and also leads the team in assists and steals. Not only all that, but he hasn’t committed a turnover in the team’s last three games.
The last four aren’t particularly easy, with home games against Clemson and Virginia Tech and road games versus Duke and Boston College, but they likely need to win only one of those to go dancing, and might not even need that.
3. DeJuan Blair. Ok, fine, you want me to say it? I will: Pitt is for real this year. But it has nothing to do with the eternally overrated LeVance Fields, it’s all about that incredible front line for the Panthers. Tyrell Biggs and Sam Young are awesome as well, but Blair has established himself as one of the best players in the country.
This season the sophomore is averaging 15.7 points and 12.8 rebounds (leads Big East, fourth in the nation) and is still getting better. In Pitt’s games this week, he put up 22 points and 23 rebounds in their 76-68 win in Storrs. And these numbers came against Hasheem Thabeet, a guy I touted on here as a Dikembe Mutombo clone. He just attacked and attacked and I don’t think Thabeet was used to it, as he ended up in foul trouble the whole game and finished with just five points and four boards. And just in case that wasn’t enough, he followed up Saturday with 20 and 18 in the team’s 80-61 win over DePaul. Kind of a tweener, so who knows what his NBA future might hold, but for now, he might be Big East Player of the Year.
4. Phoenix Suns. I know they lost to Boston on Sunday, and I don’t really care. They fired some guy as coach and let some other guy coach instead (and I’d love to tell you their names but it’s the NBA so I don’t’ know) and now sine they aren’t under the restraints of guy #1 the team is going crazy to Mike D’Antoni levels. They scored 140+ in three straight games, which is unheard of since 1989 Loyola Marymount (RIP Hank Gathers.) And also went 3-0 in those games, so it’s not like we’re talking the mid nineties Nuggets here (I heart Michael Adams).
Nash is back, with 10-12-8-11 assists in their last four games versus a season average of 9. Three players hit twenty points in game 1, Stoudemire hit 42 in game 2, Barbosa hit 41 in game 3, and, well, game 4 (vs. Celts) didn’t go so well as they gave up 63% shooting to Boston. But who cares, a team who scores that much is just plain old fun.
5. Bill Smith. The Twins’ GM has quickly changed my mind about him – well, not completely, but I feel a lot better than I did a week ago, when I had the team in the “who sucked” category.
It’s not only the signing of Crede that made this an awesome weekend, but the fact that Smith managed to sign him for just $2.5 million guaranteed (with incentives that could push to $7 mil) when it was reported that Crede wanted $7 mil guaranteed (with incentives to $11). I wanted him at $7, and to get him at $2.5 is nothing short of brilliant. Yeah, he doesn’t walk much or hit for a very high average, and in fact, if I was starting a team from scratch I would want nothing to do with him, but he brings a skill sorely lacking on the Twins’ roster – power. He can slug, and if he’s healthy he will bring another dangerous power bat to the team.
Additionally, it’s now being reported that the Twins have officially made an offer to reliever Juan Cruz, who would instantly become their top setup man if it works out. If an agreement is struck, they would have to work out a trade with the Diamondbacks to make it happen, due to MLB rules and their desire to not give up a number one draft pick.
Finally, it’s also being reported that the Twins are watching reliever Chad Cordero, who is recovering from shoulder surgery and is a free agent. Cordero saved over 100 games in three seasons for the Nationals as an elite closer from 2005-2007, but hurt his shoulder early last season and hasn’t pitched since April of last year. He’s still not at 100% yet, but he had a bullpen session that the Twins were reported to have watched with interest on Friday. If he looks like he’s recovered, and they can get him cheap, he would be another way to upgrade the bullpen in a hurry.
Crede, Cruz, and Cordero? No complaints here.
WHO SUCKED
1. Davidson. The Wildcats have no officially put themselves in a bad position, losing to Butler in their bracket buster game on Saturday which followed up a loss to Citadel earlier in the week, giving them two losses in the SoCon and six for the season. The Butler game might hurt the most, since it was not only at home, but Stephen Curry had returned and was fully healthy and it was Davidson’s last chance to get a second win over a top 75 team (Butler’s RPI is 28th). Unfortunately for the Wildcats, Curry decided to suck once again against a good team, shooting 6-23 for the game, including 2-13 from three, and turning it over 7 times.
In his games against teams in the RPI top 120 (Oklahoma, NC State, West Virginia, Purdue, Duke, Butler, and Charleston x 2) he has shot 70-208 (34%) including 23-100 from three (23%), with a 47-44 assist to turnover ratio. Meanwhile, in his other games, he has shot 174-324 (54%) including 79-163 (48%) from three, and has a 105-47 assist to turnover ratio. Read that again. Thank god Blake Griffin is having the season he has had, otherwise this pretender might win player of the year. What a joke.
Feel free to pick Davidson to upset somebody in the first round (if they make it), because it ain’t happening this year.
2. Utah State. Looks like DWG Jinx is alive and well, as Utah State has been on the skids since I praised them after attending their game against Louisiana Tech. Since then, they lost their first conference game of the season, at Boise State, and then lost their bracket buster game to a Patty Mills-less St Mary’s team 75-64, the combination of the two may be enough to keep the Aggies from an at-large bid if they don’t win the WAC tournament – not an easy thing to do in Reno. Their best win is over #9 RPI Utah, and that I sone that will still hold up, but other than that the resume is pretty sparse, wins over Boise State (#86) and Nevada (#90) are the only other top 100 wins here. Combine that with a strength of schedule that ranks 179th, and USU is on shaky ground. I would think the WAC should be a two-bid conference, but there have been plenty of other years with just one. They would be wise to win the tournament.
Oh, and remember how I said Utah State had the quality inside guys to give Blake Griffin some difficulty? I take it all back, as they got shredded by Diamon Simpson (18 and 7) and Omar Samhan (17 and 12) of St. Mary’s who shot 15-22 between them; good players, but not Blake Griffin. Oklahoma would kill these guys worse than Michigan State against the Gophers. I’m such an idiot.
3. Ohio State. Did the Buckeyes just play their way out of the tournament this week? Could be, with losses at Northwestern at vs. Illinois at home. They are still on the bubble, but rather than being at the top – which is where they were prior to this week – they are now squarely in the same mix as Michigan, Wisconsin, and Penn State, all just behind the Gophers. With such a tight race and comparable resumes amongst the middle tier teams in the conference you can’t afford to lose winnable games, which includes any home game, even against Illinois, and even though going into Northwestern is tougher this year, you still need to walk out of Evanston with a win if you’re in the Buckeye’s situation.
Despite all that, Ohio State is still in pretty good shape thanks to how the schedule lines up. They probably only need two more wins to get themselves in, and have two home games left against Penn State and Northwestern. If they falter in one of those, they still have a road game at Iowa (and one at Purdue) to make up for it. In short, OSU is probably in pretty good shape, but they are making this a lot tougher than it needs to be.
4. Michigan. The win they picked up over the Gophers earlier this week was huge, but they erased that and then some losing to Iowa on Sunday. The big wins against UCLA and Duke will still hold up, but the Wolverines are on their last legs by continuing to struggle in Big Ten play. With just a home game against Purdue and two roadies at Wisconsin and Minnesota left, things look bleak considering there’s a good chance the Wolverines have to win all three. At a minimum they have to win 2, and then do some good in the Big Ten tournament.
5. Top NFL Prospects at the Combine. The NFL combine was this weekend, and all kinds of weird stuff happened with three of the top prospects: WRs Michael Crabtree and Jeremy Maclin, and OT Andre Smith.
First, likely top five pick and top receiver prospect Michael Crabtree was examined by doctors at the combine, who discovered he had a stress fracture in his foot that he apparently has had for a year. According to reports, rather than have surgery immediately, Crabtree plans to run a forty at the Texas Tech Pro Day on March 26th, and then have the corrective surgery that would keep him out of action for 10 weeks. That would keep him out until June or July, right up to the beginning of training camp. This means whichever team takes him in April’s draft will be taking him without really knowing how he’s recovering from surgery, which may cause Crabtree to fall (and probably be a bargain for somebody).
Of course, he may still end up being the first receiver picked, as there was some weird injury news that came out about 2nd ranked WR prospect Jeremy Maclin out of Missouri. While running a route in a drill, Maclin tripped and wend down hard – and didn’t get up. He was helped off the field and brought to a training table, and it was reported he wouldn’t be finishing his drills, fueling speculation on the extent of the injury, especially since he had blown out his knee previously in 2006. Of course, it turned out to be nothing more than a bruise, and Maclin ended up finishing the same drills it was reported he wouldn’t be able to get back to. Wrong again, liberal media.
Lastly, and most bizarrely, was OT Andre Smith out of Alabama. He is the top tackle prospect in the draft, but has had some questions surface about his character after being suspended for the Sugar Bowl after having improper talks with an agent, which sounds kind of sexy but really isn’t. He certainly didn’t answer the character questions, as instead of working out at the combine as scheduled he instead decided to fly home, and didn’t bother to inform anyone. He was supposed to work out on Saturday, but was completely MIA and wasn’t located until 30 minutes prior to his work out time. By then, he was already at home in Atlanta, claiming he decided he would rather just try to get back into shape by his pro day on March 11th, saying that he wasn’t in shape. So what amounts to basically your biggest job interview either, and not only are you not prepared, but you decide to just bail? Almost sounds like another Dimentrius Underwood here. Hell, let somebody else draft him, I wouldn’t touch him anywhere near the first round.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
