Four more conference tournaments wrapped up last night with North Dakota State taking the Summit (called it!), Robert Morris the NEC (called it!), Valpo the Horizon, and Gonzaga the West Coast (called it!). Gonzaga is obviously good and will be a 1 or 2 seed depending on how some other tournaments shake out, but I don't really see any way any of the other three win a first round game. Maybe Valpo if they get a team that doesn't shoot well. North Carolina would be fun.
Anyway, there are one million tournaments kicking off today so no need for preamble. God knows there'll be enough words for you to read.
ATLANTIC 10:
When did the A-10 become all competitive and deep and fun? This conference has five 20+ game winners already, three more teams with at 17 wins, and eight of fourteen teams finished with a winning record in conference play. They also have four Top 50 teams in kenpom's rankings, and two more in the top 75 with a few more just outside the Top 100. This tournament is going to be wild.
FAVORITE: Davidson. The Wildcats stormed to the #1 seed by winning their final 9 games with four of those wins coming over fellow contenders. Davidson has one of the most fun offenses in the country, playing fast but taking care of the ball, whipping it around the perimeter and draining threes. The register a ton of assists (61% of baskets, ranks 28th), get forty percent of their points from three (ranks 5th), and score 1.9 points per possession (6th in country). All this while playing fast. Super, super fun team.
SLEEPER: VCU. There's no mistaking it - when Briante Weber went down with a knee injury VCU's season derailed. They lost that game and then went 5-5 the rest of the way without any kind of good win. However this is a really talented team with an extremely good coach. Weber was a huge key on both sides of the ball for the Rams, obviously, but would it really surprise you to see Shaka Smart figure something out and go on a run?
THE PICK: Dayton. I can't shake the memory of that run Dayton went on in the NCAAs last year. Yes, each year is different so this isn't the exact same team, but Jordan Sibert and Dyshawn Pierre are both back and looking at their season long results (23-7) they only have one bad loss. Dayton also pretty much shuts down the 3-point line so if it comes down to a Davidson vs. Dayton match-up the Flyers should be able to hang. Though Davidson did beat them by 17 earlier while hitting 12-23 threes. Well, too late to change the pick now.
BIG EAST:
Everyone loves to complain about how the old Big East is no more, and with good reason because those old tournaments were awesome (stupid football). But the new Big East is pretty good. Creighton was a great story last year, and this year Villanova would be getting all kind of attention if it wasn't for Kentucky. The Wildcats (Nova version) have won 12 in row, are 29-2 overall, have played one bad game all year, and have six guys who average between nine and fourteen points per game. Georgetown, Butler, Xavier, Providence, and St. John's are all really good too. You can take away the football schools, but the Big East is still a hell of a basketball conference.
FAVORITE: Villanova. I guess I kind of wrote them up above, but this is a really good team. In that 12 game winning streak to close the season they beat Georgetown, Butler, and St. John's while sweeping Creighton and Providence. That's not beating up on the dregs of the conference, that's just whooping up everybody.
SLEEPER: Providence. This team should be better than it has been, and it's been pretty good (21-10, 11-7). LaDontae Henton is a 20 point per game scorer, and Kris Dunn has triple double potential every time out (15.5 points, 5.6 rebs, 7.4 assists per game). For whatever reason they just lose to every really good team they play. Maybe that's who they are and they're actually just a slightly above average team. Maybe they just need something to spark.
THE PICK: Villanova. Not really sure what else to write here. These guys are really good. They shoot the ball well from everywhere, they take care of the basketball, they get to the free throw line a lot, and they're one of the top assist teams in the country. They also play very good defense, create turnovers, don't foul, and have size and experience. The only real weakness is they aren't a great rebounding team and maybe that bites them in the NCAA Tournament at some point, and Butler could be a bit of a problem but they won't face them until the championship, if they get there. This team's really good.
BIG TEN:
Hey, you've probably heard of these guys. It's kind of a weird year in the Big Ten, because I only really see one Final Four contender. Plenty of Sweet 16 type teams, but other than the stupid Badgers I don't see anyone else advancing past early in the second week at best. Maryland doesn't seem good enough to be a 3 seed from what I've seen, Michigan State certainly has the talent and the Izzo to possibly do that thing Tom Izzo always does, and De'Angelo Russell is good enough to carry the team John Wallace style, but in general I think the Sweet 16 is the ceiling for most of these teams.
FAVORITE: Wisconsin. Like I said, the Badgers are pretty prohibitive favorite here. The won the conference by two games, and by 4+ over everyone except Maryland. This year's version of the Badgers is basically the same as always - play slow, take care of the ball, shoot well and immediately get back on defense to limit transition opportunities, play good defense without taking any chances, allow few offensive rebounds and don't foul (comes with no chances, also no turnovers). This year's version is the most perfect version Bo Ryan has put together, that offensive is the #1 in the country in points per possession, and they have a legitimate star in Frank Kaminsky. As an added wrinkle they actually have some athletic ability with both Sam Dekker and Nigel Hayes, and Bronson Koenig has stepped in for Traveon Jackson with no issue - and Jackson might be back. Yuck.
SLEEPER: Minnesota. Homer alert, yes I know, but hear me out. The Gophers possess a couple of the main characteristics I've outlined in all these previews for a potential sleeper: they have a trait different from most of the rest of the conference (they're the fastest team in the B10), and they have a skill that, if everything breaks right, can win a game all on it's own in their ability to force turnovers (they rank 8th). They've also been right there in almost every game they've lost - the only games that were basically over prior to the endgame were @Maryland, @Indiana, and the two Wisconsin games. I know watching this team all year has you rolling your eyes and shaking your head and I'm with you, but they profile as a sleeper and they wouldn't have to face Wisconsin until a potential final. Stranger things have happened. Probably.
THE PICK: Michigan State. Though Wisconsin is the best team, they also seem to usually take the Big Ten Tournament off having one just once since 2008, and the Spartans seem the best bet to step in and win. The Spartans have that incredible trio of Dawson, Trice, and Valentine and Izzo seems to have the team peaking at the end of the year, as per usual. Sparty closed out 8-3, and even though one of those losses was against the Gophers, I'll give them a pass.
BIG 12:
Everyone says this is the best conference this year, kenpom has them well clear of everyone else, and maybe they're right. Kansas, Oklahoma, Baylor, and Iowa State all have a chance at the Final Four, and I guess you can't forget about West Virginia. You can, however, forget about Oklahoma State if you want. They've completely faded, losing five of their last six. ESPN still has them in as an 11 seed, but unless something changes they have no chance at upsetting anyone.
FAVORITE: Kansas. The Jayhawks are the most confusing team to me this year. At times, I've thought I'd probably pick them to make the Final Four. At other times, they look like a first round upset candidate. At their best they're a hyper athletic bunch with an inside presence, good perimeter shooting, and a bunch of guys who can defend all over the court. At others, they look lost, struggle in the half court offense, and get crushed on the boards. This is why you have a team who can go 13-5 in the best conference in basketball who also got absolutely crushed by Temple. I'm clueless.
SLEEPER: West Virginia. When I think of teams jumping up and doing unexpected things I usually figure they're a team with a star who can carry the team (Juwan Staten?), a team who does one thing so exceptionally well they can swing a game just on that alone (WVU #1 in forcing turnovers in the country), and a team who plays a pace, either slow or fast, that can make other teams uncomfortable (26th fastest team). WVU checks those boxes. Their actual shooting and defense are pretty suspect so It'd probably have to be pretty fluky, but they could do it.
THE PICK: Oklahoma. Some teams just seem built for a tournament type run, call it the eye test or what have you, but for me both Oklahoma and Iowa State seem like those kind of teams to me. They're both very athletic, fast teams who play a hectic pace, while Iowa State excels on offense and Oklahoma on defense. I'm giving the nod to the Sooners because they're a better offensive team than Iowa State is defensive, and Oklahoma's star, Buddy Hield, seems to be trending up while Iowa State's, Georges Niang, is trending down.
CONFERENCE USA:
This is another conference that got rocked by realignment, losing Louisville, Memphis, Cincinnati, and Marquette (among others) over the last ten years - basically every one of their flagship programs. Louisiana Tech has been on the fringe of an at large bid the last couple of years and Old Dominion is near the bubble this year, but I don't think C-USA has been a multi-bid conference in a while. They're still a young conference, so maybe they'll grow into the MVC someday, but they're closer to a low major than a mid major right now.
FAVORITE: Louisiana Tech. This is the third straight year the Bulldogs have won a regular season title - the last two in C-USA and the prior season in the WAC. Yet they haven't been to the NCAA Tournament since 1991 because they've bombed out in the conference tournament every year. Coach Michael White (sounds made up) has established his system in Louisiana, and every year the Bulldogs play fast, play good defense, and create a ton of turnovers while limiting their own. It's worked in the regular season, but like Billy Beane so far his shit doesn't work in the playoffs. Hopefully this is finally the year.
SLEEPER: Western Kentucky. They've won the conference tournament two of the last three years, and won five times in the 2000s in the Sun Belt so they know what they're doing at the end of the year. WKU seems to jump up and become an NCAA Tournament sleeper every few years, led by a star like Courtney Lee, Orlando Mendez-Valdez, or A.J. Slaughter. They certainly have another candidate this year in senior guard T.J. Price, who led the conference in scoring at 17.6 points per game while hitting 42% of his threes. He could certainly carry this team, and he's got three other double digit scorers to help out. Of course, it's hard to believe a team that lost to the Gophers could go on to have any success.
THE PICK: UTEP. I liked UTEP to start the year, and although they haven't done anything to make me say hey wow look at UTEP, they haven't bombed out either. 13-5 in conference play with the #2 offense and #3 defense in CUSA, they're a definite contender, and an early nonconference win over Xavier is better than anything else anyone in the conference can point to. The Miners did get swept by La Tech, but they won't have to face them unless they both make the final, and Tech is flawed enough they might not make it. UTEP can handle anyone else.
MOUNTAIN WEST:
Well it was a run Mountain West Conference. After ranking as a Top 10 Conference by kenpom from 2002-2014, the Mountain West dropped to 12th this year. That might not seem like a big deal, but another way to look at it is after easily putting multiple teams in the tournament year after year, the MWC might be a one bid league this year.
FAVORITE: San Diego State. The only MWC team guaranteed of a bid this year, the Aztecs have a little bit of a dynasty going on here under Steve Fisher with four regular season titles in the last five seasons, though they've only won one conference tournament in that time. This year will also mark their sixth straight NCAA Tournament appearance, with the Aztecs advancing past the first round three times, including a Sweet 16 appearance last season. It's the same team as every other year, although this year might be Fisher's most extreme - it's his best offense and his worst defense in this run of success. Eventually you gotta score. Unlike you in high school.
SLEEPER: Wyoming. Everything started out great for the Cowboys. They came out of the gate at 15-2, including a 4-0 conference start which included wins over Colorado, Colorado State, and Boise State. Then an understandable loss to San Diego State, and two overtime wins and they were 17-3 and 6-1 and dreams of an NCAA bid, their first since 2002, appeared. And then the bottom fell. The Cowboys won just 5 the rest of the way against six losses and the at large dream disappeared. They did lose leading scorer and rebounder Larry Nance Jr. for four games to injury but he's back now, and although Wyoming has gone just 1-3 since his return if they can refind that early season form they could make a run.
THE PICK: Boise State. Similar to Wyoming, Boise State started out well at 10-2 with losses to just Wisconsin and NC State. Similar to Wyoming, they dealt with an injury to last season's leading scorer Anthony Drmic, only he was out for the season. They had a mid-season hiccup, a four game losing streak that killed any at large chances, but since then they've been on fire, going 14-1 to close out the season. The Broncos' second leading scorer last year, Derrick Marks, has completely put this team on his back, averaging over 20 points per game over this stretch, hitting 30 points three times. Oh yeah, they also swept SDSU. So there's that.
PAC 12:
Talk about a top heavy league. Arizona and Utah are top 8 teams per kenpom, then next up is Stanford at #44 (though they seem to be tanking with a 2-5 close to the season). The Wildcats and Utes are both Top 25 in the country in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and the only other team to reach Top 25 in either is Oregon State on defense. Unfortunately, in my opinion, both those teams are super vulnerable. Could be another bad year for the Pac 12. Or Arizona could win the title. What am I, Nostradamus?
FAVORITE: Arizona. So Arizona is 28-3 with a Top 11 mark in both O and D efficiency, so what's my problem? I just haven't been impressed. Nobody on the team seems to be a reliable bet to show up all the time. Just look at their losses this year: UNLV, Oregon State, and Arizona State. Now way around it, those are all three bad losses. Their top end play is as good as it gets with sweeps of Utah, Stanford, and Oregon with non-conference wins over Gonzaga and San Diego State, but how to explain those losses?
SLEEPER: Oregon. Tough to find a sleeper in such a top heavy conference with so many horrible teams at the bottom, but the Ducks stand out. The closed the season 11-2 and mixed a win over Utah in there. They had a shaky start to the season but looking back other than a disastrous trip out to Washington where they got swept their worst loss is to Michigan, so they've mainly taken care of business against bad teams. Joseph Young is the type who can carry a team to a conference title on his own, and if he can't he'll certainly shoot enough to try.
THE PICK: Arizona. I can also completely see them flaming out in their first game, but who else am I going to pick? I should probably trust Utah more than I do looking at their profile and advanced stats, but they just seem to be missing something. Stanford is terrible now, and Oregon just has too many flaws. UCLA is the only other team under consideration, but they've mostly spent the year beating bad and average teams and losing to good ones. Then again, I suppose they need these games more than anyone else so maybe they'll win. I don't know.
SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE:
There was a time, and I think it was true, where John Calipari was a pretty terrible coach. He won because he could recruit, but to call him a great coach was a pretty big stretch. When he won his first national title with that Kentucky team I thought "Man he's lucky. All the best talent and they're all unselfish too. He's lucky Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist don't care about getting the ball." Now, however, he's done it again with an even more talented group. It's clear he's got a skill here. You can boil down a coach to three basic pieces: recruiting, roster management (including player development), and game planning. Calipari has aced two of the three, and is probably average at the third. Hard to argue he shouldn't be called a great coach at this point.
FAVORITE: Kentucky. Duh. Besides the undefeated record, Kentucky finished #1 in both offensive and defensive efficiency in SEC play, and #1 and #8 in DE and OE in the entire country for the season. Kenpom's top 5 players in the conference is made up of 4 Kentucky guys. Yeah, they got pushed to OT by inferior foes in Ole Miss and Texas A&M, but that was back in early January. Since then they've only had five of sixteen games end with a margin in single digits. They're the most talented team in the country and they're peaking. Great.
SLEEPER: Florida. Simply because it's hard for me to believe a Billy Donovan led Gator team could be this bad. I mean their final record was 15-16, which means they aren't even eligible for the NIT. Bizarre. They can still play defense, just .907 points per possession, which ranks 9th in the country this year, and most of their losses have been extremely close so they're not too far from turning it around - only Kentucky has beaten them by double figures since mid-January. A lot of bad luck for this team, maybe things tip here.
THE PICK: Kentucky. Duh. Again. It's going to take some extraordinary circumstances for Kentucky to lose this year. The most interesting game for them will be in round 2, where they will probably face the best team they've played since Arkansas over a month ago. The eight or nine seed will be someone along the lines of North Carolina State or Ohio State, and they'd be a second or third place team in the SEC. I'm interested to see Kentucky against some top competition again, but I can't fathom not picking them to not only win the SEC Tournament, but the NCAA Tournament as well.
SOUTHLAND:
The Southland is not dissimilar to the Ohio Valley - there's a great team here, one that dominated the conference, in this case going 17-1. A team that rates well at kenpom at #43 (Murray State is #77), and a team that has no chance at an at-large bid because of the weak conference competition and a bad non-conference schedule (though they do have a win over Memphis and an overtime loss to Northern Iowa). Yes, Stephen F. Austin is essentially Murray State all over again - they can win a game or two in the NCAA Tournament, but they have no margin for error to get there.
FAVORITE: Stephen F Austin. The Lumberjacks are back again, once again dominating the Southland by playing pressing like crazy (#4 in creating turnovers this year), and passing (#4 in assist percentage) and shooting the ball well (#10 in eFG). Last year they finished the regular season 29-2 and 18-0 in conference, won the conference tournament, and went on to beat VCU in an overtime thriller in round 1. Hopefully they can get through again, because this could legitimately be a Sweet 16 team. No lie.
SLEEPER: Northwestern State. Even though SFA swept Northwestern State this season, the Demons game looks like it could give the Lumberjacks fits. They're the fastest team in the conference so SFA's pace won't throw them (though the majority of the conference is pretty fast anyway), they don't turn the ball over at all, so that could cut Austin's advantage down, and they're a super efficient scoring team so they could score enough points to keep up with the Lumberjacks. Now, their defense is horrible so they'll have to score a ton to keep up with what SFA will put up, but still I'd rather see Northwestern State knocked off before they get a shot at Austin in the semifinals.
THE PICK: Stephen F Austin. We've already lost two potential giant killers in Iona and Murray State, please don't take our Lumberjacks away from us as well. With two of their big scorers back from last year's team we need these guys back in the tournament - they're fun as hell.
SWAC:
Pretty much always the bottom ranked conference at kenpom year after year and usually with some teams not eligible for the post season because of ARP issues, this year the SWAC is the bottom ranked conference at kenpom and is dealing with some teams not being eligible for the postseason due to ARP issues. There are 10 teams in this mess of a conference, and four of them - Southern, Arkansas Pine Bluff, Mississippi Valley State, and Grambling - are ineligible for post season play. They all get to participate in the SWAC Tournament, though Southern, the second place team in the league, is the only one with much of a chance to win. And then send the loser of the championship to the NCAAs. Unless they're ineligible too. Then I don't know what happens. Just disband the SWAC already.
FAVORITE: Texas Southern. Last season the Tigers rode LaSalle and WVU transfer Aaric Murray and a few other transfers to a SWAC Ttile and a berth in the First Four (lost to Cal Poly). This year, the returning Madarious Gibbs is joined by a handful of transfers, and despite a whole lot of roster turnover they're in position to make it back to the First Four. Don't forget, Texas Southern hasn't just beaten up on their conference foes - they have wins this year over Michigan State and Kansas State. I'm not sure how though. They're terrible at everything.
SLEEPER: Alabama State. The Hornets were #2 in both offensive and defensive efficiency in SWAC play this year, while Texas Southern was #1 in offensive but #5 in defensive. They did get swept by Texas Southern this year, but they pretty much handled everyone else.
THE PICK: Texas Southern. Their stat sheet looks horrible, but they have those wins over Michigan State and Kansas State and they did win the regular season crown. Anything can happen with teams that are this bad, so sticking with the chalk makes sense. Or just throw a dart, but make sure it doesn't hit an ineligible team.
Whew. That was a lot. I'm tired.
Showing posts with label Big East. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Big East. Show all posts
Wednesday, March 11, 2015
Friday, October 28, 2011
NCAA Basketball Preview - Big East
Ok, conference realignment has officially become out-of-control. The Big East already has 16 teams, but now because they're losing Syracuse (sad) and Pitt (who cares) and have now seen TCU pull out of joining to become a Big 12 team instead they overreact in the opposite direction and add Houston, Southern Methodist, Central Florida, Air Force, and Boise State. Except Air Force and Boise State will only be joining for football. This move does absolutely nothing for basketball except to further weaken a Big East already weakened by the defections, unless you think the recent strong recruiting seen by Houston is sustainable - and I don't.
At first I thought all this conference realignment stuff was kind of cool, but at this point it's just gotten completely out of hand. I don't even know who went where or who didn't or what's merging. Like that Conference USA/Mountain West merger - does that effect hoops in any way? I don't know. It's too confusing. I think it's time to just to to one big conference. Easier that way.
1. UCONN HUSKIES. How are they #1 in a tough conference despite losing Kemba Walker? Because everybody else is back, including Jeremy Lamb (who started to look like a star at the end of last year) and Alex Oriakhi (who is always solid defensively and now his offense is coming along), as well as a group of sophomores (of which Lamb is a part) who were ranked as the #20 recruiting class in the country last season by ESPN. Oh, and they have one of the best classes in the country coming in with PG Ryan Boatright (#42 rivals), SF DeAndre Daniels (#10), and C Andre Drummond (#2). Drummond is ridiculous and he's probably going to make people cry, and will likely be the #1 overall pick in next year's NBA Draft if it happens. Seriously, UCONN is a big-time threat to win back-to-back titles. Doubtful, yes, but a better chance than most.
2. SYRACUSE ORANGE. God Boeheim is just incredible - great class after great class after great class. He's followed up last year's top five class with a top 10 class this year, adding SG Michael Carter-Williams (Rivals #29 overall) and C Rakeem Christmas (#27) to last year's group that included C Fab Melo (#16), SF C.J. Fair (#94), and SG Dion Waiters (#29). Scoop Jardine and Brandon Triche will be back on the perimeter to run things and awkwardly heave the ball at the rim, and scoring machine Kris Joseph is back for more. The only real question is if Christmas (freshman) or Melo (super-subpar first year) can fill in for Rick "Automatic Double-Double" Jackson. If they can, this is a national title contender. If not, they'll be lucky to make it out of the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament.
3. LOUISVILLE CARDINALS. I have a feeling about this Louisville team, and it's not necessarily a good one. I do think they'll be good and a legit Final Four contender, but I also think they're very ripe for some ugly nights. It will basically all come down to Peyton Siva and how well he can control the offense, because with Preston Knowles gone he's now in charge of a whole bunch of talent, but a whole bunch of talent that's a little bit crazy. The Cards have everything you'd need - excellent point guard, dead-eye shooting, perimeter and interior defense, and three incoming swingmen who all rank on in Rivals Top 70 (and a center as well), so really it's going to come down to how well they mesh - and that is going to depend on Siva.
4. PITT PANTHERS. I think at some point Pitt turned itself into kind of a minor dynasty (conference only). They somehow shed the legacy of crappy overrated point guards like Brandin Knight, Carl Krauer, and LeVance Fields and are now actually acquiring good, quality players like Ashton Gibbs who is probably the best player in the conference. They do lose quite a bit with three starters (including the giant version of kid from Kid N Play which makes me sad), and Gibbs biggest help now is a guy who is already hurt and missing most/all the preseason practice time, a point guard who makes LeVance Fields look like Craig Hodges, and a former big time recruit whose failed to average more than 5 points per game in his two seasons at Pitt. But you watch, Gibbs will find a way, and Pitt will break into the top 10 at some point this year. Big fan of this kid.
5. VILLANOVA WILDCATS. Villanova is turning into Chucker University, and this year is shaping up to be no exception as Maalik Wayns looks to become the next in the recent line of all-time great chuckers following Scottie Reynolds, the two Coreys, Allen Ray, and Randy Foye. The real great news is that Wayns looks like he has a chance to be the greatest of them all. His shooting percentage of 40% last year and 3-point percentage of just 27% were some of the worst numbers any of these chuckers put up at any point in their careers, but that didn't stop Wayns from taking the third most shots (and 3-pointers) on the team behind the two Coreys. Really, the stars could be aligning for a spectacular two final years of his career. I'm so excited.
6. CINCINNATI BEARCATS. Why do I have some trouble believing in Cincy? It could be because there best player is named Yancy, but really there's a lot to like about the Bearcats this year. Besides the aforementioned Yancy Gates, their leading scorer and rebounder last year, they also return essentially every player from last year's team that knocked off a very good Missouri team in the NCAA Tournament last year, and also add Shaquille Thomas and Jermaine Sanders, two athletic wings who will fit well in Mick Cronin's hyper-defensive system. The biggest issue here will be Cashmere Wright, who is back to play the point for a third year. Except he can't shoot, turns the ball over too much, and isn't a great distributor. So I guess they got that goin' for 'em.
7. MARQUETTE EAGLES. Jimmy Butler was a do-everything type player and he's gone, but luckily for Marquette Darius Johnson-Odom is back and he's a do-everything type as well who was pretty much just as good as Butler last year and has a chance to be an absolute super star this year without having to share touches with Butler. Jae Crowder lived up to his billing as one of the better JuCo players last season, looking unstoppable on the block at times despite a shaky shooting percentage and could be a big-time player this year. The biggest key for Marquette will be the backcourt with Vander Blue coming off a disappointing freshman year where he had more turnovers than assists and shot at a worse percentage than Maalik Wayns. Junior Cadougan is serviceable but not a star, so they really need Blue to live up to his pre-college hype.
8. WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS. Joel Mazzulla, captain bricklayer himself, is gone along with their best scorer in Casey Mitchell and their best defender, or at least one of, in John Flowers. Even so, Huggy Bear will have these guys in contention for an NCAA bid because they're always going to play tough defense and Kevin Jones is back and ripe for a Big East player of the year type season. The biggest key will be Truck Bryant, who will have to pretty much main the point alone with Maz gone. Assuming he can avoid running into cars this season, WVU should be ok.
9. NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH. Obviously most of these previews are me combining my limited knowledge on these teams with what I can read, both online and in print, and trying to come up with some decent conclusions. So basically a lot of guessing. One thing I'm not guessing about, however, and I'll make it a guarantee, is that you're going to be sick of hearing about Tim Abromaitis by the end of this season. Seriously, between him and Scott Martin the Irish are going to once again be the great white hope, except now the third wheel in little Hansbrough is gone and I have this crazy feeling Abromaitis is going to have a Harangody like season, only less behemoth-y. Put on your gritty, hustly, heady, smart player shoes because it's going to be a rough year if you watch any of there games. And god help you if they actually end up good. God. Help. You.
10. GEORGETOWN HOYAS. For the last several years the Hoyas have been a big-time March threat - at least on paper - and it's been on the strength of their guard play. Unfortunately for them, they're in the habit of getting bounced to early and two of their three stud guards are now gone. The one remaining, Jason Clark, was more of the third wheel type, and will now have to become the #1 option, and basically the difference for the Hoyas between a good or bad season, because between him and Hollis Thompson - who is the only offensive big man of consequence who is returning, they're going to have to be most of the offense for this team. There are three highly regarded freshmen big men coming in, but other than throwing a right hook at some chinaman who knows if they'll be worth a damn.
11. RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS. Ever since Quincy Douby left Rutgers hasn't been able to build any momentum. Even when they snag a great recruiting class with two Top 50 players like they did in 2008 things fall apart and both players ended up transferring before the end of their careers. That being said, a new coach and another excellent class (ranked #24 nationally and 6th in the conference by Rivals) has hope welling up once again in Jersey. If they ever get good the RAC gives them a nice home court advantage, so remember that when you're gambling.
12. SOUTH FLORIDA BULLS. You remember Anthony Crater? The point guard who came aboard at Ohio State in the same class that netted the Buckeyes B.J. Mullens and William Buford, then quit 2 months into the season after shooting 3-15 from the floor in 10 games because he didn't get to start (keep in mind OSU's guards were Evan Turner, Buford, David Lighty, Jon Diebler, and Jeremie Simmons)? He's played at USF the last two seasons and averaged less than 4 points per game both years despite playing over 25 minutes per game, and was kicked off the team in May for "violating team rules." I don't know why, but that story makes me laugh. Probably because he seemed like such a douche.
13. SETON HALL PIRATES. I don't know why I'm so drawn to Seton Hall. Maybe it's because I fell in love with Shaheen Holloway, or maybe it's because a dude I played against (and got crushed by) in high school ended up going there (Darius Lane), but I also half-root for the Pirates and actually have a Seton Hall hat somewhere. Unfortunately this year is going to be a rough one for the Pirates with Jeremy Hazell, the Big East's third leading scorer last year, and Jeff Robinson, the team's second leading scorer, both gone along with a whole bunch of supporting bits. Herb Pope is still a freaking stud with bullets in his body and Jordan Theodore can score, but there just isn't much here unless Pope goes insane. More than usual, I mean.
14. ST. JOHNS RED STORM. They would be higher, seeing as how Lavin came in and immediately grabbed a top 3 class to come play in NYC, but then things unraveled and three of the newcomers were ruled ineligible, and they just happened to be the #23, #51, and #68 recruits in the country. There's still good talent coming in, but St. John's is trying to replace essentially everybody from last year and losing those three hurts, especially because the #51 guy - Jakarr Sampson - has already transferred out (maybe the other's have too but I'm not looking it up because I've already spent too much time on this one). Lavin will turn things around in a hurry, maybe just in slightly less of a hurry than it looked. I wonder if he's gone crooked yet or if he's waiting another year.
15. PROVIDENCE FRIARS. Marshon Brooks was really, really good at scoring. He was also the rare player who was kind of a chucker, but was an efficient chucker. I'm not really sure why I'm talking about him because he's now in the NBA if there was an NBA, but it's probably because I don't know anything else about Providence. They do have two other double-digit scorers back from last year. Shrug.
16. DEPAUL BLUE DEMONS. Talk about horrible. I read somewhere that DePaul has gone 2-52 in Big East play over the last three seasons. I knew they were bad, but assumed that was a misprint and looked it up myself. Sure enough, they're 2-52. And it's not fixing to change. Despite being in the heart of Chicago, a nice high school hoops town, they can't get anybody to attend DePaul because of Dumpster Arena. I just don't know how they're going to get out of this mess. I guess they have a little momentum, what with Cleveland Melvin winning Big East Rookie of the Year last year and stealing DeJuan Marrero away from the Gophers recently, but yuck. You'd think one of Illinois, Northwestern, DePaul, or UIC would have to be good, but here we are.
At first I thought all this conference realignment stuff was kind of cool, but at this point it's just gotten completely out of hand. I don't even know who went where or who didn't or what's merging. Like that Conference USA/Mountain West merger - does that effect hoops in any way? I don't know. It's too confusing. I think it's time to just to to one big conference. Easier that way.
1. UCONN HUSKIES. How are they #1 in a tough conference despite losing Kemba Walker? Because everybody else is back, including Jeremy Lamb (who started to look like a star at the end of last year) and Alex Oriakhi (who is always solid defensively and now his offense is coming along), as well as a group of sophomores (of which Lamb is a part) who were ranked as the #20 recruiting class in the country last season by ESPN. Oh, and they have one of the best classes in the country coming in with PG Ryan Boatright (#42 rivals), SF DeAndre Daniels (#10), and C Andre Drummond (#2). Drummond is ridiculous and he's probably going to make people cry, and will likely be the #1 overall pick in next year's NBA Draft if it happens. Seriously, UCONN is a big-time threat to win back-to-back titles. Doubtful, yes, but a better chance than most.
2. SYRACUSE ORANGE. God Boeheim is just incredible - great class after great class after great class. He's followed up last year's top five class with a top 10 class this year, adding SG Michael Carter-Williams (Rivals #29 overall) and C Rakeem Christmas (#27) to last year's group that included C Fab Melo (#16), SF C.J. Fair (#94), and SG Dion Waiters (#29). Scoop Jardine and Brandon Triche will be back on the perimeter to run things and awkwardly heave the ball at the rim, and scoring machine Kris Joseph is back for more. The only real question is if Christmas (freshman) or Melo (super-subpar first year) can fill in for Rick "Automatic Double-Double" Jackson. If they can, this is a national title contender. If not, they'll be lucky to make it out of the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament.
3. LOUISVILLE CARDINALS. I have a feeling about this Louisville team, and it's not necessarily a good one. I do think they'll be good and a legit Final Four contender, but I also think they're very ripe for some ugly nights. It will basically all come down to Peyton Siva and how well he can control the offense, because with Preston Knowles gone he's now in charge of a whole bunch of talent, but a whole bunch of talent that's a little bit crazy. The Cards have everything you'd need - excellent point guard, dead-eye shooting, perimeter and interior defense, and three incoming swingmen who all rank on in Rivals Top 70 (and a center as well), so really it's going to come down to how well they mesh - and that is going to depend on Siva.
4. PITT PANTHERS. I think at some point Pitt turned itself into kind of a minor dynasty (conference only). They somehow shed the legacy of crappy overrated point guards like Brandin Knight, Carl Krauer, and LeVance Fields and are now actually acquiring good, quality players like Ashton Gibbs who is probably the best player in the conference. They do lose quite a bit with three starters (including the giant version of kid from Kid N Play which makes me sad), and Gibbs biggest help now is a guy who is already hurt and missing most/all the preseason practice time, a point guard who makes LeVance Fields look like Craig Hodges, and a former big time recruit whose failed to average more than 5 points per game in his two seasons at Pitt. But you watch, Gibbs will find a way, and Pitt will break into the top 10 at some point this year. Big fan of this kid.
5. VILLANOVA WILDCATS. Villanova is turning into Chucker University, and this year is shaping up to be no exception as Maalik Wayns looks to become the next in the recent line of all-time great chuckers following Scottie Reynolds, the two Coreys, Allen Ray, and Randy Foye. The real great news is that Wayns looks like he has a chance to be the greatest of them all. His shooting percentage of 40% last year and 3-point percentage of just 27% were some of the worst numbers any of these chuckers put up at any point in their careers, but that didn't stop Wayns from taking the third most shots (and 3-pointers) on the team behind the two Coreys. Really, the stars could be aligning for a spectacular two final years of his career. I'm so excited.
6. CINCINNATI BEARCATS. Why do I have some trouble believing in Cincy? It could be because there best player is named Yancy, but really there's a lot to like about the Bearcats this year. Besides the aforementioned Yancy Gates, their leading scorer and rebounder last year, they also return essentially every player from last year's team that knocked off a very good Missouri team in the NCAA Tournament last year, and also add Shaquille Thomas and Jermaine Sanders, two athletic wings who will fit well in Mick Cronin's hyper-defensive system. The biggest issue here will be Cashmere Wright, who is back to play the point for a third year. Except he can't shoot, turns the ball over too much, and isn't a great distributor. So I guess they got that goin' for 'em.
7. MARQUETTE EAGLES. Jimmy Butler was a do-everything type player and he's gone, but luckily for Marquette Darius Johnson-Odom is back and he's a do-everything type as well who was pretty much just as good as Butler last year and has a chance to be an absolute super star this year without having to share touches with Butler. Jae Crowder lived up to his billing as one of the better JuCo players last season, looking unstoppable on the block at times despite a shaky shooting percentage and could be a big-time player this year. The biggest key for Marquette will be the backcourt with Vander Blue coming off a disappointing freshman year where he had more turnovers than assists and shot at a worse percentage than Maalik Wayns. Junior Cadougan is serviceable but not a star, so they really need Blue to live up to his pre-college hype.
8. WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS. Joel Mazzulla, captain bricklayer himself, is gone along with their best scorer in Casey Mitchell and their best defender, or at least one of, in John Flowers. Even so, Huggy Bear will have these guys in contention for an NCAA bid because they're always going to play tough defense and Kevin Jones is back and ripe for a Big East player of the year type season. The biggest key will be Truck Bryant, who will have to pretty much main the point alone with Maz gone. Assuming he can avoid running into cars this season, WVU should be ok.
9. NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH. Obviously most of these previews are me combining my limited knowledge on these teams with what I can read, both online and in print, and trying to come up with some decent conclusions. So basically a lot of guessing. One thing I'm not guessing about, however, and I'll make it a guarantee, is that you're going to be sick of hearing about Tim Abromaitis by the end of this season. Seriously, between him and Scott Martin the Irish are going to once again be the great white hope, except now the third wheel in little Hansbrough is gone and I have this crazy feeling Abromaitis is going to have a Harangody like season, only less behemoth-y. Put on your gritty, hustly, heady, smart player shoes because it's going to be a rough year if you watch any of there games. And god help you if they actually end up good. God. Help. You.
10. GEORGETOWN HOYAS. For the last several years the Hoyas have been a big-time March threat - at least on paper - and it's been on the strength of their guard play. Unfortunately for them, they're in the habit of getting bounced to early and two of their three stud guards are now gone. The one remaining, Jason Clark, was more of the third wheel type, and will now have to become the #1 option, and basically the difference for the Hoyas between a good or bad season, because between him and Hollis Thompson - who is the only offensive big man of consequence who is returning, they're going to have to be most of the offense for this team. There are three highly regarded freshmen big men coming in, but other than throwing a right hook at some chinaman who knows if they'll be worth a damn.
11. RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS. Ever since Quincy Douby left Rutgers hasn't been able to build any momentum. Even when they snag a great recruiting class with two Top 50 players like they did in 2008 things fall apart and both players ended up transferring before the end of their careers. That being said, a new coach and another excellent class (ranked #24 nationally and 6th in the conference by Rivals) has hope welling up once again in Jersey. If they ever get good the RAC gives them a nice home court advantage, so remember that when you're gambling.
12. SOUTH FLORIDA BULLS. You remember Anthony Crater? The point guard who came aboard at Ohio State in the same class that netted the Buckeyes B.J. Mullens and William Buford, then quit 2 months into the season after shooting 3-15 from the floor in 10 games because he didn't get to start (keep in mind OSU's guards were Evan Turner, Buford, David Lighty, Jon Diebler, and Jeremie Simmons)? He's played at USF the last two seasons and averaged less than 4 points per game both years despite playing over 25 minutes per game, and was kicked off the team in May for "violating team rules." I don't know why, but that story makes me laugh. Probably because he seemed like such a douche.
13. SETON HALL PIRATES. I don't know why I'm so drawn to Seton Hall. Maybe it's because I fell in love with Shaheen Holloway, or maybe it's because a dude I played against (and got crushed by) in high school ended up going there (Darius Lane), but I also half-root for the Pirates and actually have a Seton Hall hat somewhere. Unfortunately this year is going to be a rough one for the Pirates with Jeremy Hazell, the Big East's third leading scorer last year, and Jeff Robinson, the team's second leading scorer, both gone along with a whole bunch of supporting bits. Herb Pope is still a freaking stud with bullets in his body and Jordan Theodore can score, but there just isn't much here unless Pope goes insane. More than usual, I mean.
14. ST. JOHNS RED STORM. They would be higher, seeing as how Lavin came in and immediately grabbed a top 3 class to come play in NYC, but then things unraveled and three of the newcomers were ruled ineligible, and they just happened to be the #23, #51, and #68 recruits in the country. There's still good talent coming in, but St. John's is trying to replace essentially everybody from last year and losing those three hurts, especially because the #51 guy - Jakarr Sampson - has already transferred out (maybe the other's have too but I'm not looking it up because I've already spent too much time on this one). Lavin will turn things around in a hurry, maybe just in slightly less of a hurry than it looked. I wonder if he's gone crooked yet or if he's waiting another year.
15. PROVIDENCE FRIARS. Marshon Brooks was really, really good at scoring. He was also the rare player who was kind of a chucker, but was an efficient chucker. I'm not really sure why I'm talking about him because he's now in the NBA if there was an NBA, but it's probably because I don't know anything else about Providence. They do have two other double-digit scorers back from last year. Shrug.
16. DEPAUL BLUE DEMONS. Talk about horrible. I read somewhere that DePaul has gone 2-52 in Big East play over the last three seasons. I knew they were bad, but assumed that was a misprint and looked it up myself. Sure enough, they're 2-52. And it's not fixing to change. Despite being in the heart of Chicago, a nice high school hoops town, they can't get anybody to attend DePaul because of Dumpster Arena. I just don't know how they're going to get out of this mess. I guess they have a little momentum, what with Cleveland Melvin winning Big East Rookie of the Year last year and stealing DeJuan Marrero away from the Gophers recently, but yuck. You'd think one of Illinois, Northwestern, DePaul, or UIC would have to be good, but here we are.
Tuesday, March 8, 2011
Championship Week, part II
Sometimes I love the first part of Championship Week(s) the most, when the smaller conferences are battling for their tournament lives, do or die, with smaller schools and lesser known players that only hardcore nerds like me know anything about. Other times I prefer Week II, this week, with the higher profile, higher skilled teams - and lots and lots of day action to wager on. In any case, I love all of it. These tournaments get rolling today:
ATLANTIC 10: Thought at the beginning of the year to be one of the "high mid-major" conferences to really breakthrough this year, that never quite happened. Still, they're likely to be sending at least three teams to the NCAAs, and all three look legit enough that they could make a Sweet 16 run.
FAVORITE: Xavier. The Musketeers won the regular season title once again, despite once again looking like they lost too much fire power from last year's team. They've made three straight sweet 16s, and it doesn't seem to matter who the coach is they are just tough when it comes to tournament play. Tu Holloway is the kind of dude who can just carry a team.
SLEEPER: George Washington. The top three (Xavier, Temple, Richmond) have a pretty good stranglehold on this league and Duquesne has completely fallen off the map, so the nominal role of sleeper goes to the Colonials. Although they went 0-4 against the top teams, they did manage to go 10-2 against everybody else. So that's something.
W's PICK: Xavier. You'd be a fool to pick against Xavier in any kind of tournament setting. And I'm not no fool.
WHO'S DANCING: Xavier, Richmond, Temple
Congrats to Gonzaga, Old Dominion, St. Peter's, and Wofford for cashing in last night and winning their conference tournaments. All of them, with the exception of St. Pete's, are threats to win a first round matchup next week, with the Zags and Monarchs legit Sweet 16 type teams. As far as the losers go, both St. Mary's and VCU have a chance at receiving an at-large bid and I think both should. For St. Mary's, however, the weird game they schedule for this Friday against Weber State looms large. Lose that and they're probably out. Truly a no-win/big lose situation for them. Weird choice.
As far as tonight goes, there are three games you want to keep your eye on: Marquette vs. Providence, Oakland vs. Oral Roberts, and Butler vs. Milwaukee. Marquette is probably in regardless, but a win over Providence would seal it, while a loss would make for a nervous selection Sunday for the Eagles. Butler might be in might not, but Milwaukee definitely isn't so they need to win the Horizon title, and Oakland is in the same boat. The Golden Grizzlies are definitely a threat in March and this entire season has felt like a mission specifically designed to get in, and get wins in, the NCAA Tournament. They have to get passed ORU, however, in order to do it. Also, I guess Princeton @ Penn. If Princeton wins they tie Harvard atop the Ivy standings and there will be a one-game playoff. If they lose, Harvard is in. Fun night of games.
ATLANTIC 10: Thought at the beginning of the year to be one of the "high mid-major" conferences to really breakthrough this year, that never quite happened. Still, they're likely to be sending at least three teams to the NCAAs, and all three look legit enough that they could make a Sweet 16 run.
FAVORITE: Xavier. The Musketeers won the regular season title once again, despite once again looking like they lost too much fire power from last year's team. They've made three straight sweet 16s, and it doesn't seem to matter who the coach is they are just tough when it comes to tournament play. Tu Holloway is the kind of dude who can just carry a team.
SLEEPER: George Washington. The top three (Xavier, Temple, Richmond) have a pretty good stranglehold on this league and Duquesne has completely fallen off the map, so the nominal role of sleeper goes to the Colonials. Although they went 0-4 against the top teams, they did manage to go 10-2 against everybody else. So that's something.
W's PICK: Xavier. You'd be a fool to pick against Xavier in any kind of tournament setting. And I'm not no fool.
WHO'S DANCING: Xavier, Richmond, Temple
BIG EAST: Remember all that "how many bids can the Big East get" talk? And remember at one point the media starting mentioning things like "Can the Big East get 11 bids" and it all sounding so ridiculous? Well they've got 10 definite locks and assuming Marquette doesn't somehow lose to Providence in the opening round they'll have 11. Really though, there isn't much at stake here other than seeding since most teams have their bids wrapped up already. Both Pitt and Notre Dame are playing for a one seed. Villanova sucks.
FAVORITE: Pitt. I wrote about how I think Notre Dame is upset proof, but Pitt is the Big East team I think is the best and the most likely to win the national title. Offense, defense, inside, outside - very solid all-around team.
SLEEPER: Seton Hall. I'll avoid picking any of the NCAA teams as a potential sleeper and go with the Hall. They're a very good defensive team (14th best in the country according to kenpom) that has struggled offensively, leading to a disappointing season. They do, however, have Jeremy Hazell, the kind of player who can get hot and carry a team on a run. They won't be able to run the table in this tough of a league, but it wouldn't shock me if they knocked off a team or two.
W's PICK: St. Johns. With pretty much every team already having a bid locked up it's all about who has the fire to win a somewhat meaningless gauntlet of games - who has the fire and will to show up each day and bring their best in a game that barely matters against a quality opponent, knowing it's going to be a physical battle? I like the Red Storm here because they're a senior laden squad getting their first tastes of meaningful play and they love the Garden.
WHO'S DANCING: Syracuse, UCONN, St. John's, Pitt, Notre Dame, Marquette, Cincinnati, Georgetown, West Virginia, Louisville, Villanova.
MID-AMERICAN: Shouldn't the MAC be better? I feel like it really should be, but they haven't sent multiple teams to the NCAA Tournament since 1999. That isn't going to change this year and there aren't exactly signs that it will be changing any time soon. Unfortunately this conference has fallen into the bottom half of the NCAA at this point. Aren't you just pumped for this tournament now?
FAVORITE: Kent State. They won the league with a 12-4 record, and two of their losses were in overtime so it's safe to say they did a pretty solid job of dominating this year.
SLEEPER: Central Michigan. The Chippewas were a bit of a disappointment this year, finishing just 7-9 in MAC play, but there is enough talent here to make a run. Freshman Trey Ziegler might be the most talented player in the league and is the best on this team (top-2 in pts, rebs, and assists) and if he and Jalin Thomas get hot at the same time they could definitely do some damage.
W's PICK: Ohio. Kent State has the best record, CMU has the best player, but Ohio has the best stats - as in they rank the highest at kenpom.com at #97, and it's not even close (Kent is #163). There are enough guys back from last year's team that improbably won the MAC Tournament and then knocked off Georgetown that they could go on another run. Plus there best player is named D.J. Cooper, which is just close enough to D.B. Cooper to be cool. And he averages 7.4 assists per game to go with his 16 points per. You gotta like that.
MID-EASTERN ATLANTIC: The winner of this conference usually makes an appearance in the play-in game. Since there will be two play-in games for the worst four qualifiers and the MEAC ranks as the second worst conference that gets a bid this year, I feel safe saying that whoever wins should make plans to be in Dayton on Tuesday.
FAVORITE: Bethune-Cookman. BCU has always been one of my favorite schools, mainly because way back in the day when the Gophers played them I couldn't stop laughing at the name because it just seemed so ridiculous, so it makes me happy to see them at the top of the conference. The only other thing I can tell you about this school is that it's traditionally so bad that when you did a career mode on NCAA Hoops 2k8, which means they had you start as a coach at one of the worst schools in the country, Bethune-Cookman was one of your ten choices to begin your coaching career. They're bad. This would be a big deal if they seal the deal.
SLEEPER: Hampton. Really these teams are so bad that all it would take is one team getting hot and they could take the whole thing down. I'll go with Hampton as a sleeper because they are actually a pretty decent defensive team - something unique to them amongst these teams.
W's PICK: Bethune-Cookman. It's gotta be. It would be huge for them. Their wikipedia page only talks about baseball, golf, and football - doesn't even mention the basketball squad. No respect.
MOUNTAIN WEST: One of the biggest questions facing bracket-filler-outers this year is how good is the Mountain West? BYU and SDSU are going to end up with top 3 seeds most likely, so do you believe it, or not? Personally I do, at least in the case of SDSU. I would probably feel the same about BYU, but I'm not really what to make of them sans Brandon Davies and his terrible horrible crime.
FAVORITE: BYU. Still gotta go with the Cougars here even without Davies since they swept San Diego State, but without him I just don't know if they can hang. He's basically their entire inside presence, and I fear that they've gone from a Final Four contender to a team with an upside of the Sweet 16. Too bad. As a wise man once said, you gotta stay away from women, boys. All they want is your man juice.
SLEEPER: New Mexico. They were an NCAA first-round winner last year, and although they lost a ton off that team they've still been solid this year behind former Cyclone Dairese Gary and former Bruin Drew Gordon. Although they were a disappointing 8-8 in conference play they did well against the big boys, sweeping BYU (their only two conference losses) and, although they were swept by UNLV the two losses were by 1 and by 3 in overtime. This was a talented, yet underachieving team. Those are always dangerous in March.
W's PICK: San Diego State. They are just so much more talented than every other team in this conference. BYU was on the same level, but without Davies I just don't see how they can contain the inside play of SDSU. I also feel like the Aztecs are being overlooked just a bit. Don't do that. They are a legit Sweet 16 or better squad.
WHO'S DANCING: SDSU, BYU, UNLV
Congrats to Gonzaga, Old Dominion, St. Peter's, and Wofford for cashing in last night and winning their conference tournaments. All of them, with the exception of St. Pete's, are threats to win a first round matchup next week, with the Zags and Monarchs legit Sweet 16 type teams. As far as the losers go, both St. Mary's and VCU have a chance at receiving an at-large bid and I think both should. For St. Mary's, however, the weird game they schedule for this Friday against Weber State looms large. Lose that and they're probably out. Truly a no-win/big lose situation for them. Weird choice.
As far as tonight goes, there are three games you want to keep your eye on: Marquette vs. Providence, Oakland vs. Oral Roberts, and Butler vs. Milwaukee. Marquette is probably in regardless, but a win over Providence would seal it, while a loss would make for a nervous selection Sunday for the Eagles. Butler might be in might not, but Milwaukee definitely isn't so they need to win the Horizon title, and Oakland is in the same boat. The Golden Grizzlies are definitely a threat in March and this entire season has felt like a mission specifically designed to get in, and get wins in, the NCAA Tournament. They have to get passed ORU, however, in order to do it. Also, I guess Princeton @ Penn. If Princeton wins they tie Harvard atop the Ivy standings and there will be a one-game playoff. If they lose, Harvard is in. Fun night of games.
Wednesday, October 20, 2010
College Basketball Preview: The Big East
1. Villanova Wildcats. I'm very glad Scottie Reynolds, one of my top five most hated college players of all-time, is gone, because I can go back to not hating Villanova right as they look to finally be balanced enough to be a real national title contender - and I mean a real threat, not a media-driven threat that was obviously going to flame out early - thanks again to Reynolds. Perimeter driven for years, this year Jay Wright and the Wildcats will have a balanced attack. Antonio Pena has made a huge leap from where he was as a freshman to become an excellent inside scoring threat and two sophomores (Mouphtaou Yarou and Isaiah Armwood) were highly regarding coming in last year and had very nice freshman years - and of course Nova is loaded with guards as they always are. So I guess is what I'm saying is we actually have to worry about Villanova and I don't like it one bit.
2. Syracuse Orange. The Orange lose a lot - again, but Jim Boeheim just reloads - again. Losing Andy Rautins, Arinze Onuaku, and Wes Johnson would cripple most teams and send them into rebuilding mode, but not the Cuse. Fab Melo (#2 center) is a better Onuaku, and SF C.J. Fair (#94 overall) and SG Dion Waiters (#29 overall) may not be the equal of Johnson and Rautins, but they'll ease their loss. Biggest keys to Orange success will be how Kris Joseph develops, and he is looking like he could end up being the next Syracuse star, and finding a shooter to replace Rautins and Johnson, who made 61% of the team's three balls between them at a combined 41% clip. This is where Mookie Jones (45% last year) can fit in. Plus, you (and everyone) need a little more Mookie in your life. You know it's true.
3. Pittsburgh Panthers. I've never seen a Pitt team I liked, and I'm not going to start now, but it's impossible to deny that they look pretty loaded this year. The real question is if Ashton Gibbs is a bonifide star or just another in a long line of Pitt point guards who got a disproportionate amount of praise for their skill level and couldn't shoot. Look it up, but from Brandin Knight to Carl Krauser to Levance Fields, Pitt always has point guards who couldn't hit a jump shot if they were in an empty gym, but were universally loved and praised by the media. I'm afraid Gibbs, who shot under 40% from the field last year, is yet another one and is going to cause my anti-Pitt rage to fire itself back up again, despite all the anti-rage medication I'm on.
4. Georgetown Hoyas. Georgetown is going to look a little weird this year because they're going to be missing the most Georgetowny thing - a good, big center. From Ewing, Mourning, and Mutumbo to Hibbert and Monroe, they always seem to have a good center (not counting all those years between Mutumbo and Hibbert), but not this year. What they do have, however, is a trio of very good guards in Chris Wright (scored 20 in 3 of team's last 4 games), Austin Freeman (leading scorer last year at 16.5 per game), and Jason Clark (42% three-point shooter). It seems like the Hoyas have disappointed every year since their Final Four year, so maybe this is another breakthrough coming since they say guard play is the key in March. And, in case you're really concerned, they did sign 6-10 Moses Abraham, the #11 center in the country for 2010, and he could eventually develop into a top flight center in a year or two. Long live tradition.
5. West Virginia Mountaineers. Devin Ebanks and Da'Sean Butler are massive losses, particularly Butler who wasn't only their best player but also a stone cold end of game killer, but there's still enough here to make the Mountaineers an NCAA Tournament team. Kevin Jones was basically Butler's understudy all year and is a very similar player who I expect to take a big leap forward and help lead this team, and they get both of their point guards back in Joel Mazzulla (who can't shoot) and Truck Bryant (who seems to alternate between being injured and being in trouble). There are a lot of questions on the interior and a lot of pressure will be on John Flowers and Deniz Kilicli (and Kevin Noreen, who is from Minneapolis and the Gophers had zero interest in so that will be interesting to see how that works out). Also Noah Cottrill (freshman PG) looks just like the Professor and as such I love him.
6. St. Johns Red Storm. Might be a little high, but optimism reigns in NYC for a once proud program who has fallen into irrelevance, and I'm buying into it. New coach Steve Lavin finally left the booth for this job, and he's hit the ground running already landing a couple of big time recruits for 2011. But don't think the only optimism is for the future, this year's squad returns nearly everybody from last year's NIT team, and they have a good mix of inside and outside scoring. I'm not saying we're heading back to the glory days of Felipe Lopez and Zendon Hamilton or anything, but don't be surprised if they surprise some people (but not you because I just told you they'd be good.)
7. Connecticut Huskies. I've got a weird feeling about UCONN, and I am starting to think their run as a top flight college hoops program might be coming to a close. Now, they're still good now and should make the NCAA Tournament this year (although they should have been one of the best team's in the country last year and that didn't exactly work out) and they continue to get good recruiting classes, but there's a lot going on here. Calhoun's health issues, the new NCAA infractions (that have led to two assistant coaches getting canend), Ater Majok leaving...I don't know, it just feels like bad news coming, whether the NCAA hammers the program or not. In any case, they'll be good this year and Kemba Walker is a stud. At least until he gets arrested.
8. Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Better without Harangody? Yep, and if you recall, they made their late run at an NCAA bid when he was on the shelf last year, winning their last four regular season games, including wins over 2 ranked teams and 2 bubble teams, then winning two in the Big East tournament to grab an NCAA berth. This year white guy central and top two players Ben Hansbrough and Tim Abromaitis will add a third top white guy in Purdue transfer Scott Martin. You may remember him as the fourth member of Purdue's E'Twaun Moore/JaJuan Johnson/Robbie Hummel class who was actually ranked similarly to Hummel by Rivals. He had a solid freshman year, then transferred (and had to sit out), and then blew out his knee before last season began, so this will actually be his first action since 2007 (much like my good friend Theory). The biggest question, however, is can they find a point guard to get all these white shooters the ball?
9. Marquette Eagles. Marquette was supposed to be down last year after losing their kick-ass guard trio, but Lazar Hayward (T-Wolves, what up?) was a beast and Jimmy Butler made huge leaps and helped carry the Golden Eagles to the NCAA Tournament where they just barely dropped their first round game to Washington. Hayward is gone, as are starting guards David Cubillon and Maurice Acker, but Butler returns along with third leading scorer Darius Johnson-Odom. If they get can good point play from either sophomore Junior Cadougan or freshman Vander Blue they might surprise some people. As long as they beat Wisconsin (they play every year, don't they?) I'll be happy. Go to hell, Badgers, go to hell.
10. Seton Hall Pirates. This might actually be a bit low for the Pirates, as I think they have real sleeper potential - in the conference, not necessarily nationally - but they also have a high chance of implosion as well. Herb Pope is as talented as anyone but is essentially a walking injury risk, Jeremy Hazell is a scoring machine but is also a tremendous chucker, Keon Lawrence was very good for Missouri but had a terrible year last season in his first as a Pirate, and Jeff Robinson - well, I have nothing really to say there. But the moral of the story is the Pirates have their top four players back, but with a new coach and some volatile personalities this story can go either way. I'm rooting for things to go well, I do own a Seton Hall hat after all, but it will be interesting. Last year, coach Bobby Gonzalez played a wide-open, uptempo style, but new coach Kevin Willard's Iona was a slow-down, deliberate team. Interesting to see how that all ends up shaking out.
11. Louisville Cardinals. Another down year is in the cards for the cards before things start to turn around with a great class Pitino is bringing in for 2011. Louisville loses its top three scorers from last season in Samardo Samuels, Edgar Sosa, and Jerry Smith, along with fellow starter , leaving the team with a whole lot of role players and no star power. I don't know, I guess Terrence Jennings was supposed to be the next Earl Clark/Terrence Williams/Francisco Garcia, but man Pitino already has a very good 2011 class coming in, even after missing on a couple of key targets, so this is going to be a transition year and probably not very fun. Except maybe for Rick, assuming he finds another team employee's wife to hump around with.
12. South Florida Bulls. Dominique Jones was completely awesome, and losing him is a big blow, but there's still some talent here in Tampa. Gus Gilchrist and Jarrid Famous are both over 6-10, and both are excellent interior scorers and good rebounders. That kind of size and talent is going to give some teams fits. Former Ohio State problem child Anthony Crater is still getting in trouble now that he's a Bull, and didn't exactly light it up when he did play, but he was once a pretty highly regarded point guard coming out of high school with a lot of good offers from a lot of good programs. You know what they always say, if you give a headcase enough chances, he will always come through for you in the end and never, ever end up a huge disappointment.
13. Cincinnati Bearcats. This was my sleeper team last year, but their inability to close in tight games killed them and they ended up in the NIT (where they lost to freaking Dayton) instead of in the Final Four. With Lance Stephenson and Deonta Vaughn now gone, there are major holes to fill and with the incoming class very meh it's going to be up to the returnees if Cincy is going to be something other than a cellar dweller. I watched a lot of Cincy ball last year, since I had a crush on them, and center Yancy Gates is the only one who was remotely impressive last year. Other than that they are a bunch of solid players but no real stars, and "point guard" Cashmere Wright was awful. Remember Kerwin Fleming? Throw out that improbable run he had in the NIT after Monson let him play streetball and you have Wright, except he's expected to start and lead the team. Yeah.
14. Providence Friars. In reading up on the Big East, I discovered that this team was really, really bad defensively last year. In fact, they ranked 237th in Ken Pomeroy's defensive efficiency ratings, which put them at dead last amongst all BCS conference teams. They accomplished this by allowing opponents to shoot 52.2% on 2-pointers (327th), only turning their opponents over 18% of the time (290th), and allowing an offensive rebound on 36.6% of their opponents misses (309th). So, to recap, the Friars almost always allowed their opponent to get a shot off, and it almost always went in, and when it didn't go in, they usually allowed them to have a second chance at it. That is not good. On the bright side, their offense was actually quite efficient. This will all probably happen again.
15. Rutgers Scarlet Knights. The big signing of Mike Rosario a few couple years ago didn't exactly turn the Scarlet Knights around, and now he's transferred out to Florida and the team's second best player, Greg Echenique has left as well to go play at Creighton. New coach Mike Rice has already made some big moves on the recruiting trail and things are looking up, but this year will be tough with nobody over 6-8 on the roster. Talented sophomore Dane Miller is back, but Rutgers will struggle to win more than a couple of games in conference play this year, the talent level just isn't there, despite an awesome home arena. Quincy Douby is rolling over in his grave.
16. DePaul Blue Demons. The team with the worst arena in college ball will once again be the worst major college team in the land, except I think this makes three years in a row. Things might be looking up a bit with a new coach in Oliver Purnell, who has built programs up before (Dayton/Clemson), but this year is going to be another rough one. Last year the team was built around two players (Mac Koshwal and Will Walker) who scored over half the team's points on a per game basis, and now both are gone. With not much here and a less than imposing incoming class, it's going to be a rough year. These guys are like the football Minnesota Gophers of college basketball.
Other Previews:
Pac-10
ACC
Big 12
2. Syracuse Orange. The Orange lose a lot - again, but Jim Boeheim just reloads - again. Losing Andy Rautins, Arinze Onuaku, and Wes Johnson would cripple most teams and send them into rebuilding mode, but not the Cuse. Fab Melo (#2 center) is a better Onuaku, and SF C.J. Fair (#94 overall) and SG Dion Waiters (#29 overall) may not be the equal of Johnson and Rautins, but they'll ease their loss. Biggest keys to Orange success will be how Kris Joseph develops, and he is looking like he could end up being the next Syracuse star, and finding a shooter to replace Rautins and Johnson, who made 61% of the team's three balls between them at a combined 41% clip. This is where Mookie Jones (45% last year) can fit in. Plus, you (and everyone) need a little more Mookie in your life. You know it's true.
3. Pittsburgh Panthers. I've never seen a Pitt team I liked, and I'm not going to start now, but it's impossible to deny that they look pretty loaded this year. The real question is if Ashton Gibbs is a bonifide star or just another in a long line of Pitt point guards who got a disproportionate amount of praise for their skill level and couldn't shoot. Look it up, but from Brandin Knight to Carl Krauser to Levance Fields, Pitt always has point guards who couldn't hit a jump shot if they were in an empty gym, but were universally loved and praised by the media. I'm afraid Gibbs, who shot under 40% from the field last year, is yet another one and is going to cause my anti-Pitt rage to fire itself back up again, despite all the anti-rage medication I'm on.
4. Georgetown Hoyas. Georgetown is going to look a little weird this year because they're going to be missing the most Georgetowny thing - a good, big center. From Ewing, Mourning, and Mutumbo to Hibbert and Monroe, they always seem to have a good center (not counting all those years between Mutumbo and Hibbert), but not this year. What they do have, however, is a trio of very good guards in Chris Wright (scored 20 in 3 of team's last 4 games), Austin Freeman (leading scorer last year at 16.5 per game), and Jason Clark (42% three-point shooter). It seems like the Hoyas have disappointed every year since their Final Four year, so maybe this is another breakthrough coming since they say guard play is the key in March. And, in case you're really concerned, they did sign 6-10 Moses Abraham, the #11 center in the country for 2010, and he could eventually develop into a top flight center in a year or two. Long live tradition.
5. West Virginia Mountaineers. Devin Ebanks and Da'Sean Butler are massive losses, particularly Butler who wasn't only their best player but also a stone cold end of game killer, but there's still enough here to make the Mountaineers an NCAA Tournament team. Kevin Jones was basically Butler's understudy all year and is a very similar player who I expect to take a big leap forward and help lead this team, and they get both of their point guards back in Joel Mazzulla (who can't shoot) and Truck Bryant (who seems to alternate between being injured and being in trouble). There are a lot of questions on the interior and a lot of pressure will be on John Flowers and Deniz Kilicli (and Kevin Noreen, who is from Minneapolis and the Gophers had zero interest in so that will be interesting to see how that works out). Also Noah Cottrill (freshman PG) looks just like the Professor and as such I love him.
6. St. Johns Red Storm. Might be a little high, but optimism reigns in NYC for a once proud program who has fallen into irrelevance, and I'm buying into it. New coach Steve Lavin finally left the booth for this job, and he's hit the ground running already landing a couple of big time recruits for 2011. But don't think the only optimism is for the future, this year's squad returns nearly everybody from last year's NIT team, and they have a good mix of inside and outside scoring. I'm not saying we're heading back to the glory days of Felipe Lopez and Zendon Hamilton or anything, but don't be surprised if they surprise some people (but not you because I just told you they'd be good.)
7. Connecticut Huskies. I've got a weird feeling about UCONN, and I am starting to think their run as a top flight college hoops program might be coming to a close. Now, they're still good now and should make the NCAA Tournament this year (although they should have been one of the best team's in the country last year and that didn't exactly work out) and they continue to get good recruiting classes, but there's a lot going on here. Calhoun's health issues, the new NCAA infractions (that have led to two assistant coaches getting canend), Ater Majok leaving...I don't know, it just feels like bad news coming, whether the NCAA hammers the program or not. In any case, they'll be good this year and Kemba Walker is a stud. At least until he gets arrested.
8. Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Better without Harangody? Yep, and if you recall, they made their late run at an NCAA bid when he was on the shelf last year, winning their last four regular season games, including wins over 2 ranked teams and 2 bubble teams, then winning two in the Big East tournament to grab an NCAA berth. This year white guy central and top two players Ben Hansbrough and Tim Abromaitis will add a third top white guy in Purdue transfer Scott Martin. You may remember him as the fourth member of Purdue's E'Twaun Moore/JaJuan Johnson/Robbie Hummel class who was actually ranked similarly to Hummel by Rivals. He had a solid freshman year, then transferred (and had to sit out), and then blew out his knee before last season began, so this will actually be his first action since 2007 (much like my good friend Theory). The biggest question, however, is can they find a point guard to get all these white shooters the ball?
9. Marquette Eagles. Marquette was supposed to be down last year after losing their kick-ass guard trio, but Lazar Hayward (T-Wolves, what up?) was a beast and Jimmy Butler made huge leaps and helped carry the Golden Eagles to the NCAA Tournament where they just barely dropped their first round game to Washington. Hayward is gone, as are starting guards David Cubillon and Maurice Acker, but Butler returns along with third leading scorer Darius Johnson-Odom. If they get can good point play from either sophomore Junior Cadougan or freshman Vander Blue they might surprise some people. As long as they beat Wisconsin (they play every year, don't they?) I'll be happy. Go to hell, Badgers, go to hell.
10. Seton Hall Pirates. This might actually be a bit low for the Pirates, as I think they have real sleeper potential - in the conference, not necessarily nationally - but they also have a high chance of implosion as well. Herb Pope is as talented as anyone but is essentially a walking injury risk, Jeremy Hazell is a scoring machine but is also a tremendous chucker, Keon Lawrence was very good for Missouri but had a terrible year last season in his first as a Pirate, and Jeff Robinson - well, I have nothing really to say there. But the moral of the story is the Pirates have their top four players back, but with a new coach and some volatile personalities this story can go either way. I'm rooting for things to go well, I do own a Seton Hall hat after all, but it will be interesting. Last year, coach Bobby Gonzalez played a wide-open, uptempo style, but new coach Kevin Willard's Iona was a slow-down, deliberate team. Interesting to see how that all ends up shaking out.
11. Louisville Cardinals. Another down year is in the cards for the cards before things start to turn around with a great class Pitino is bringing in for 2011. Louisville loses its top three scorers from last season in Samardo Samuels, Edgar Sosa, and Jerry Smith, along with fellow starter , leaving the team with a whole lot of role players and no star power. I don't know, I guess Terrence Jennings was supposed to be the next Earl Clark/Terrence Williams/Francisco Garcia, but man Pitino already has a very good 2011 class coming in, even after missing on a couple of key targets, so this is going to be a transition year and probably not very fun. Except maybe for Rick, assuming he finds another team employee's wife to hump around with.
14. Providence Friars. In reading up on the Big East, I discovered that this team was really, really bad defensively last year. In fact, they ranked 237th in Ken Pomeroy's defensive efficiency ratings, which put them at dead last amongst all BCS conference teams. They accomplished this by allowing opponents to shoot 52.2% on 2-pointers (327th), only turning their opponents over 18% of the time (290th), and allowing an offensive rebound on 36.6% of their opponents misses (309th). So, to recap, the Friars almost always allowed their opponent to get a shot off, and it almost always went in, and when it didn't go in, they usually allowed them to have a second chance at it. That is not good. On the bright side, their offense was actually quite efficient. This will all probably happen again.
15. Rutgers Scarlet Knights. The big signing of Mike Rosario a few couple years ago didn't exactly turn the Scarlet Knights around, and now he's transferred out to Florida and the team's second best player, Greg Echenique has left as well to go play at Creighton. New coach Mike Rice has already made some big moves on the recruiting trail and things are looking up, but this year will be tough with nobody over 6-8 on the roster. Talented sophomore Dane Miller is back, but Rutgers will struggle to win more than a couple of games in conference play this year, the talent level just isn't there, despite an awesome home arena. Quincy Douby is rolling over in his grave.
16. DePaul Blue Demons. The team with the worst arena in college ball will once again be the worst major college team in the land, except I think this makes three years in a row. Things might be looking up a bit with a new coach in Oliver Purnell, who has built programs up before (Dayton/Clemson), but this year is going to be another rough one. Last year the team was built around two players (Mac Koshwal and Will Walker) who scored over half the team's points on a per game basis, and now both are gone. With not much here and a less than imposing incoming class, it's going to be a rough year. These guys are like the football Minnesota Gophers of college basketball.
Other Previews:
Pac-10
ACC
Big 12
Monday, March 22, 2010
Week in Review - 3/21/2010
Well, we made it back from Chicago and everyone is still alive. Sorry for the lateness of this post, but believe me after pulling consecutive days with 12+ hours logged at the bar, the last thing I could manage when I got back on Sunday was writing some stupid crap for this stupid blog. But now that I'm back, even though I still feel like crap, I figure I should at least put up some kind of half-assed Week in Review (well, more half-assed than usual, I mean.)
Quickly, two things that stood out from the Chicago weekend:
1) A Colombian man openly weeping in the middle of the Dayton bar while listening to latin music on his pink Ipod.
2) Loud, obnoxious Kansas fan yelling "yes" when Kansas hit that meaningless three with 0.4 left in the game. He either forgot the actual score or has no idea how basketball works, and I'm not sure which way is funnier but I know he had all of us rolling in the back room after we heard him.
Anyway, on to the usual garbage:
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Xavier. It's hard to blame the Gophers too much for the loss on Friday, particularly when the Musketeers were the far better team, and they continued to show that by beating Pitt on Sunday to advance to the Sweet 16 for the third consecutive season - one of just two teams (Michigan State is the other) who can make that claim. Sure, there were things the Gophers could have done better/differently, but the entire game it seemed as if the Gophers were doing everything in their power just to keep it close, and I don't really remember ever thinking they had a chance to pull it out. Jordan Crawford was by far the best player on the court with his 28 point, 6 rebound, 5 assist performance (which he followed up with 27-6-6 against Pitt) and the Gophers had no idea how to keep Love and McLean off the boards. Xavier has enough talent to take down Kansas State and could advance to the Elite 8 this week. I don't think they have enough juice to beat Syracuse, but once you get this deep, anything can happen.
2. Joe Mauer. Or Bill Smith or Ron Shapiro or whoever you want to give the credit too. The important thing is that Mauer is signed Even if he regresses a bit, his downside is probably something like .310/.390/.480 with 15 homers, and from a gold glove catcher even that is probably worth close to what he's getting paid. Add in his upside, MVP-potential, and what he means to this town, and it had to be done. I'd say this is all they had left to do, but with Nathan now out for the year I think they need to make another move. This team is really good and right on the verge, and I'm afraid if they don't do something it's going to be a disaster. Tell me you don't see them going closer-by-committee, having it become a disaster, and not realizing or trying to make a change until it's too late. That's exactly something the Twins would do. I read somewhere that the Padres want Perkins and two "good" prospects for Heath Bell. Now, if that "good" level means guys like Ben Revere and Wilson Ramos I'd tell the Padres to go screw, but if they're talking like Trevor Plouffe and Steven Tolleson then it's time to run, not walk, to make this deal.
3. Ali Farokhmanesh. The biggest upset of the tournament thus far has got to be UNI's victory over Kansas (well, Ohio over G-Town was probably bigger, but essentially meaningless), and the hero was without question Cedar Falls' version of Jamal Abu Shamala in Farokmanesh. That monster three pointer he hit with 30 seconds left was the stupidest, dumbest, ballsiest shot I've ever seen, and since it went down and ended up being the game winner, Farok goes down as a hero rather than a goat, and is going to end up being a tournament legend who is talked about long after his playing days are done a la Bryce Drew. Add in the fact that he also hit a three with under five seconds to go to give the Panthers their opening round win over UNLV, and this kid had one hell of a weekend. It's just unfortunate that he's a terrorist.
4. Cornell. Remember all that "under-seeded" talk? Well, two wins and a sweet 16 berth says that wasn't just crazy talk. I still contend the Big Red caught a nice break in running up against two team's that play a similar style and weren't going to out-athletic them, but you can't really talk down to an Ivy League team that ends up playing in the second week of the tournament. Even though Ryan Wittman gets most of the press, especially here with his Minnesota connection, seven-footer Jeff Foote might end up being the key against Kentucky. He's not just some big ole seven-footer who plays because he's seven feet tall in the Ivy League, he has some legit skill and good footwork and is going to need it all against Kentucky. This is going to be a real tester, since Kentucky is playing as well as it has all year. I'd love to see Calipari go down, no matter how unlikely it may be.
5. Michigan State. How annoying are the Spartans? It's the same thing every year, they look mediocre all through the Big Ten season, end up with a middle-high type seed, you think they're ripe for the upset, and then they just keep winning. That monstrously entertaining win over Maryland on Sunday gave Michigan State their third Sweet-16 in as many years (meanwhile the Gophers haven't made it that far in over ten years) and showed once again why you never, ever doubt Izzo. I read that there is a 90% chance Sparty will be without Kalin Lucas against Northern Iowa, and normally I'd say that is a pretty big deal, but it doesn't seem to matter who is there or gone on Izzo's teams, so they'll probably win by ten. Oh, and Durrell Summers is absolutely going to be a huge star next season. All Big-10 First Team.
WHO SUCKED
1. Scottie Reynolds. There's not much as enjoyable as watching a truly overrated chucker nearly shoot his team to a loss in the first round against a 15-seed and then, after his team manages to escape thanks to an NCAA mandate to the refs that Robert Morris isn't allowed to win, doing the same thing 48 hours later, but this time they couldn't escape and were dropped by the suddenly super popular Omar Samhan and St. Mary's 75-68. I'm not kidding either. Your precious All-American shot 2-15 in the first game and was 2-11 in the second, going 4-26 in what has to be a record in futility from someone who idiotic fans love because they're stupid. He makes Stephen Curry look like Magic Johnson. I'm almost sad he's graduating, just because he's so fun to root against, but I will enjoy not having to hear about him anymore. Maybe the most overrated player in history.
2. The Big East. Speaking of overrated, what do we think of the Big East? Eight teams with bids, called the best conference in all the land for the second-year in a row, and yet only two teams (Syracuse and West Virginia) are still alive for the Sweet 16. It's really not that bad if you think about how they made up 1/8th of the invitees and still make up 1/8th of the remaining teams, but they were set up for a lot more success. Both Villanova and Georgetown had Final Four aspirations and Pitt was a three-seed, Marquette and Notre Dame as six seeds were picked by some to make the Sweet 16 but lost in the first round, and Louisville was thought to be a challenge for Duke in round two but couldn't even get past Cal. That's currently a 6-6 record for the conference by my count, which sounds ok until you think about how they had a 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 6, 6, and 9 seed. Seriously, pretty embarrassing.
3. The Mountain West. Well, if we're going to talk about disappointing conferences we can't very well ignore the Mountain West, which had three teams invited, two with a good chance at getting to the Sweet 16, but instead ended up going just 2-3, with their top team (New Mexico) getting bounced hard in round 2 by Washington by 20 and BYU refusing to even show up in their second round guy against Kansas State after just squeaking by a Florida team that probably didn't even deserve a bid. Not that I necessarily thought these guys were great, but this certainly doesn't help my argument that high-mid-major teams from conferences like the A-10 and MWC can be valid sleepers in the NCAA tournament. Apparently you have to go to smaller conferences like the Ivy or Missouri Valley to have a prayer.
4. Richmond. Hey, speaking of teams that suck and aren't valid sleepers, let's give it up for my most disappointing team of the dance - The Richmond Spiders. I was so fired up for these guys to make a run. They closed out winning twelve of their last fourteen including a huge win over Xavier in the A-10 tournament, and even though I knew St. Mary's was a dangerous 10 seed I was still expecting a Richmond win followed by another win over Villanova. Obviously not. And they would have beaten Villanova, too, just like the Gaels did, but they decided not to show up for their first game. Seriously, have to seen this stat? Richmond was out-rebounded 39-16? How is that even possible? The earlier mentioned Samhan had twelve boards all by himself, which means he damned near out-rebounded the Spiders all by himself. Ridiculous. And such a good team, too. I mean, they just had 35 rebounds in a game against Xavier the prior week. Such a shame.
5. Blake Hoffarber. I'm sick of Hoffarber. Actually that's not exactly true, I'm just sick of an offense that relies so heavily on someone who can't create his own shot. Hoff is just fine. He's a great shooter (unless he's too open), he's a good rebounder for his size and lack of athleticism, and he's a smart player. I'm just sick of watching all these good teams and all these good players and we're stuck watching the Gophers and their two players who can create their own shot, one of whom is likely functionally retarded. I want better players, dammit. Get on it, Tubby. You need to get this program turned all the way around before you bolt to Auburn. Don't you betray me, too. I'm still trying to recover from Rico Tucker turning his back on me.
Quickly, two things that stood out from the Chicago weekend:
1) A Colombian man openly weeping in the middle of the Dayton bar while listening to latin music on his pink Ipod.
2) Loud, obnoxious Kansas fan yelling "yes" when Kansas hit that meaningless three with 0.4 left in the game. He either forgot the actual score or has no idea how basketball works, and I'm not sure which way is funnier but I know he had all of us rolling in the back room after we heard him.
Anyway, on to the usual garbage:
WHO WAS AWESOME
1. Xavier. It's hard to blame the Gophers too much for the loss on Friday, particularly when the Musketeers were the far better team, and they continued to show that by beating Pitt on Sunday to advance to the Sweet 16 for the third consecutive season - one of just two teams (Michigan State is the other) who can make that claim. Sure, there were things the Gophers could have done better/differently, but the entire game it seemed as if the Gophers were doing everything in their power just to keep it close, and I don't really remember ever thinking they had a chance to pull it out. Jordan Crawford was by far the best player on the court with his 28 point, 6 rebound, 5 assist performance (which he followed up with 27-6-6 against Pitt) and the Gophers had no idea how to keep Love and McLean off the boards. Xavier has enough talent to take down Kansas State and could advance to the Elite 8 this week. I don't think they have enough juice to beat Syracuse, but once you get this deep, anything can happen.
2. Joe Mauer. Or Bill Smith or Ron Shapiro or whoever you want to give the credit too. The important thing is that Mauer is signed Even if he regresses a bit, his downside is probably something like .310/.390/.480 with 15 homers, and from a gold glove catcher even that is probably worth close to what he's getting paid. Add in his upside, MVP-potential, and what he means to this town, and it had to be done. I'd say this is all they had left to do, but with Nathan now out for the year I think they need to make another move. This team is really good and right on the verge, and I'm afraid if they don't do something it's going to be a disaster. Tell me you don't see them going closer-by-committee, having it become a disaster, and not realizing or trying to make a change until it's too late. That's exactly something the Twins would do. I read somewhere that the Padres want Perkins and two "good" prospects for Heath Bell. Now, if that "good" level means guys like Ben Revere and Wilson Ramos I'd tell the Padres to go screw, but if they're talking like Trevor Plouffe and Steven Tolleson then it's time to run, not walk, to make this deal.
3. Ali Farokhmanesh. The biggest upset of the tournament thus far has got to be UNI's victory over Kansas (well, Ohio over G-Town was probably bigger, but essentially meaningless), and the hero was without question Cedar Falls' version of Jamal Abu Shamala in Farokmanesh. That monster three pointer he hit with 30 seconds left was the stupidest, dumbest, ballsiest shot I've ever seen, and since it went down and ended up being the game winner, Farok goes down as a hero rather than a goat, and is going to end up being a tournament legend who is talked about long after his playing days are done a la Bryce Drew. Add in the fact that he also hit a three with under five seconds to go to give the Panthers their opening round win over UNLV, and this kid had one hell of a weekend. It's just unfortunate that he's a terrorist.
4. Cornell. Remember all that "under-seeded" talk? Well, two wins and a sweet 16 berth says that wasn't just crazy talk. I still contend the Big Red caught a nice break in running up against two team's that play a similar style and weren't going to out-athletic them, but you can't really talk down to an Ivy League team that ends up playing in the second week of the tournament. Even though Ryan Wittman gets most of the press, especially here with his Minnesota connection, seven-footer Jeff Foote might end up being the key against Kentucky. He's not just some big ole seven-footer who plays because he's seven feet tall in the Ivy League, he has some legit skill and good footwork and is going to need it all against Kentucky. This is going to be a real tester, since Kentucky is playing as well as it has all year. I'd love to see Calipari go down, no matter how unlikely it may be.
5. Michigan State. How annoying are the Spartans? It's the same thing every year, they look mediocre all through the Big Ten season, end up with a middle-high type seed, you think they're ripe for the upset, and then they just keep winning. That monstrously entertaining win over Maryland on Sunday gave Michigan State their third Sweet-16 in as many years (meanwhile the Gophers haven't made it that far in over ten years) and showed once again why you never, ever doubt Izzo. I read that there is a 90% chance Sparty will be without Kalin Lucas against Northern Iowa, and normally I'd say that is a pretty big deal, but it doesn't seem to matter who is there or gone on Izzo's teams, so they'll probably win by ten. Oh, and Durrell Summers is absolutely going to be a huge star next season. All Big-10 First Team.
WHO SUCKED
1. Scottie Reynolds. There's not much as enjoyable as watching a truly overrated chucker nearly shoot his team to a loss in the first round against a 15-seed and then, after his team manages to escape thanks to an NCAA mandate to the refs that Robert Morris isn't allowed to win, doing the same thing 48 hours later, but this time they couldn't escape and were dropped by the suddenly super popular Omar Samhan and St. Mary's 75-68. I'm not kidding either. Your precious All-American shot 2-15 in the first game and was 2-11 in the second, going 4-26 in what has to be a record in futility from someone who idiotic fans love because they're stupid. He makes Stephen Curry look like Magic Johnson. I'm almost sad he's graduating, just because he's so fun to root against, but I will enjoy not having to hear about him anymore. Maybe the most overrated player in history.
2. The Big East. Speaking of overrated, what do we think of the Big East? Eight teams with bids, called the best conference in all the land for the second-year in a row, and yet only two teams (Syracuse and West Virginia) are still alive for the Sweet 16. It's really not that bad if you think about how they made up 1/8th of the invitees and still make up 1/8th of the remaining teams, but they were set up for a lot more success. Both Villanova and Georgetown had Final Four aspirations and Pitt was a three-seed, Marquette and Notre Dame as six seeds were picked by some to make the Sweet 16 but lost in the first round, and Louisville was thought to be a challenge for Duke in round two but couldn't even get past Cal. That's currently a 6-6 record for the conference by my count, which sounds ok until you think about how they had a 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 6, 6, and 9 seed. Seriously, pretty embarrassing.
3. The Mountain West. Well, if we're going to talk about disappointing conferences we can't very well ignore the Mountain West, which had three teams invited, two with a good chance at getting to the Sweet 16, but instead ended up going just 2-3, with their top team (New Mexico) getting bounced hard in round 2 by Washington by 20 and BYU refusing to even show up in their second round guy against Kansas State after just squeaking by a Florida team that probably didn't even deserve a bid. Not that I necessarily thought these guys were great, but this certainly doesn't help my argument that high-mid-major teams from conferences like the A-10 and MWC can be valid sleepers in the NCAA tournament. Apparently you have to go to smaller conferences like the Ivy or Missouri Valley to have a prayer.
4. Richmond. Hey, speaking of teams that suck and aren't valid sleepers, let's give it up for my most disappointing team of the dance - The Richmond Spiders. I was so fired up for these guys to make a run. They closed out winning twelve of their last fourteen including a huge win over Xavier in the A-10 tournament, and even though I knew St. Mary's was a dangerous 10 seed I was still expecting a Richmond win followed by another win over Villanova. Obviously not. And they would have beaten Villanova, too, just like the Gaels did, but they decided not to show up for their first game. Seriously, have to seen this stat? Richmond was out-rebounded 39-16? How is that even possible? The earlier mentioned Samhan had twelve boards all by himself, which means he damned near out-rebounded the Spiders all by himself. Ridiculous. And such a good team, too. I mean, they just had 35 rebounds in a game against Xavier the prior week. Such a shame.
5. Blake Hoffarber. I'm sick of Hoffarber. Actually that's not exactly true, I'm just sick of an offense that relies so heavily on someone who can't create his own shot. Hoff is just fine. He's a great shooter (unless he's too open), he's a good rebounder for his size and lack of athleticism, and he's a smart player. I'm just sick of watching all these good teams and all these good players and we're stuck watching the Gophers and their two players who can create their own shot, one of whom is likely functionally retarded. I want better players, dammit. Get on it, Tubby. You need to get this program turned all the way around before you bolt to Auburn. Don't you betray me, too. I'm still trying to recover from Rico Tucker turning his back on me.
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