Guess what fuckers? I may be back. I may also not be back. I am unsure. However since I can't quite get in the mood to care about college basketball this year, maybe writing up some basic stuff will get me motivated again. Who knows. And what better way than to write a Big Ten Preview, using a magazine as my sole source of information? This should be terrible.
1. INDIANA HOOSIERS. Don't worry, there's no doubt Tom Crean will screw everything else and the Hoosiers will underachieve because that's just what he does, but I like the team in general. They have a super nice little big man/guard combo in James Blackmon and Thomas Bryant, and any time you have two players on the same team that make me think how sweet that team would be on NBA Jam you know I'm going to overrate them. Plus I think I read somewhere that this Anunoby guy is suppose to like, make a leap or something. If Crean didn't screw him all up already.
2. WISCONSIN BADGERS. Ugh. Gross. The entire team is back from last year to be boring and white, but they weren't terrible so I suppose they're probably the favorite to win the conference. At least Greg Gard doesn't seem nearly as loathsome as Bo Ryan was. Still pretty loathsome though. Just like that traitor Illlikainenen. I confess that I do like watching Nigel Hayes though. I actually kind of hope he finally has a three point shot figured out, because that would be fun to watch. I feel icky. 80% of this team is voting for Trump.
3. OHIO STATE BUCKEYES. I actually already put down a long shot future wager on them to win the NCAA title at like 66-1, so I gotta stick with it. Yeah, it's probably a dumb bet but that's why it's a longshot. But here's the thing I like. Remember year after year after year, Thad Matta somehow manages to pull in one of the best classes in the country. Like every year. And the really good guys like D'Angelo Russell and DeShaun Thomas eventually leave early for the draft. But all those other guys stick around, and now they're sophomores and juniors and seniors. There's a whole group of pretty good players here. If one (or more!) can step up a bit and become an actually like, super good player this could end up a really good team. Or I'm a big fat idiot.
4. PURDUE BOILERMAKERS. Last year they had three big fat tall guys and things went alright. This year they have two big fat tall guys and that might even work out better since Caleb Swanigen and Isaac Haas (too many As!!) can ball. But they still don't have a backcourt and I don't think they have since Lewis Jackson, who couldn't shoot. But they have Spike Albrecht you say? I still don't get why this is/was a big deal because, spoiler alert, Albrecht sucks. He had one good half against Louisville on national tv and suddenly he's good? He's terrible. A benchwarmer who got hot, went back to warming benches, and then transferred since his coach knew he sucked. Now he's going to suck for a new team. What a huge story!
5. MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS. This is a weird team for Izzo. He has a killer recruiting class and he's going to need it since there's nothing else here. He has Tum Tum Nairn, who wouldn't shoot the ball if you paid him, and Eron Harris, who wouldn't stop shooting if you cut his arms off, and then like, a bunch of supposedly good freshman. I know putting them fifth is just me falling for the hype of POTENTIAL and UPSIDE, but every other team in this league freaking sucks. I'm serious. Every team after this one is just terrible.
6. MARYLAND TERRAPINS. You know who doesn't suck though? Melo Trimble. He's going to be on a bad team, but he's good enough to pull them up this high. I expect him to shoot approximately one zillion times this year. That is all I can write about Maryland because nobody knows anything else about any of these guys and if they say they do they're lying.
7. ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI. Malcolm Hill also doesn't suck, and also will be in the player of the year hunt. The difference between he and Trimble is that Hill has a few players back that I'm familiar with. So why are they below Maryland? Because I'm tremendously inconsistent. Looking at this roster Tracy Abrams is probably already hurt again, I liked this Mike Thorne guy before he got hurt, and Maverick Morgan has always been a player who existed. They have Leron Black too, who I remember was supposed to be a stud but obviously that hasn't worked out too well at this point, but like Nickelback says "It's never too late."
8. MICHIGAN WOLVERINES. They could be higher if they managed to not get anybody hurt, which seems unlikely. Caris LeVert basically missed his last two seasons here, and Gary Walton was hurt for what seemed like the entire year two seasons ago and I know this because I had him on my fantasy team. Zak Irvin hasn't missed as much time as those guys, but he's been absolutely atrocious and I remember reading it had to do with some injury. Look, I'm not saying Jon Beilein is intentionally hurting his players, but I'm not NOT saying it either.
9. MINNESOTA GOPHERS. This is far more optimistic than most predictions out there, but it's my blog so I can do whatever I want. Once you get down here most of these teams are terrible. Like really terrible, so it wouldn't be hard for one of them to jump up and get as high as 8 or 9 and why not the Gopehrs? They have more experience coming back then the majority of the teams below them, a better recruiting class, and a couple supposedly impact transfers. So there's upside. I think a lot of this season depends on Pitino's coaching. The first year he came here he did a lot of interesting things, particularly on offense, that were refreshing after watching Tubby's teams run nothing but flex over and over again. Then, for some reason, that died and I couldn't ascertain if they were running any set play at all on most of the possessions. That works when you have a loaded, athletic, smart team. Even though I like most of this team, they certainly aren't that. So let's run some plays! Have some fun! Finish ninth!
10. NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS. I have no doubt one year soon Northwestern will finally break through and make the NCAA Tournament, but I'll believe when I see it. Every time they get close they blow it. And since they wear purple might as well make the ole Vikings comparison here. But there's no doubt they've risen above perennial bottom feeder status. The big recruiting splash guy Vic Law looked good his freshman year before missing last year with an injury and I assume he's back. They probably have a big doofy foreign big guy I can make fun of/fall in love with, and Bryant McIntosh is somehow a really, really good player. He's so punchable he probably should have gone to Duke, but he's really good.
11. IOWA HAWKEYES. If you were a reader of this blog, you may remember at once point I was going to do a thing where I kept track of the best chuckers in the country. That, and everything really, fell by the wayside, but I've always remember Peter Jok because he popped up on my list because he had a pretty insane usage rate for a bench player while not being a very good shooter. Well guess what? Everyone is gone from Iowa except for him. Now, last year he kept a pretty high shot rate but was actually an excellent shooter, but with nobody else out there to draw defensive attention I'm predicting he goes back to crappy. Crappy, but high volume. Buckle up.
12. PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS. The only thing I know about Penn State this year is that their best player is Shep Garner, and that makes me smile because his name is Shep. You know who else's name was Shep? The weirdo creepy security guard from Above the Rim who played basketball against air with no ball because he once accidentally killed his best friend. But how can you go against someone who can do this?
You can't! And he's in work clothes! Man, Penn State should really go get this guy.
13. RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS. Rutgers was bad last year. Like really, really bad. Except of course when they spanked the Gophers, which was a really fun game to watch. They have a large chunk of the team back, which is one hand is good because in theory players get better from year to year, but on the other hand is bad because they were really, really bad last season. At least they're interesting. Interesting in that they are wildly inefficient and technically horrible and making baskets, but at the same time play at a really fast pace and put up a whole bunch of shots, while also playing zero defense and if they do manage to make the opponent miss they very rarely get the rebound! In other words, it's fun to watch other teams light them up. Not the Gophers, of course, but other teams.
14. NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS. Thank god Petteway and Shields are gone and the Huskers can go back to sucking like they're supposed to. We didn't invite Nebraska to the Big Ten to be mildly competitive at basketball, we invited them to be good at football and fight to not be in last place in basketball every year. I was getting pretty sick of them not being completely dreadful and going after many of the same recruits the Gophers were. Now the natural order of things can be restored. Also pretty sick of Tim Miles at this point.
Well there you have it. My completely accurate and well researched predictions for the big ten this season. As far as this blog, I have no idea how often I'll be posting. Maybe after most games. Maybe never again. NOBODY KNOWS!
Showing posts with label Big Ten Basketball. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Big Ten Basketball. Show all posts
Thursday, November 3, 2016
Wednesday, March 11, 2015
Wednesday Tournament Preview - Here Come the Big Dogs
Four more conference tournaments wrapped up last night with North Dakota State taking the Summit (called it!), Robert Morris the NEC (called it!), Valpo the Horizon, and Gonzaga the West Coast (called it!). Gonzaga is obviously good and will be a 1 or 2 seed depending on how some other tournaments shake out, but I don't really see any way any of the other three win a first round game. Maybe Valpo if they get a team that doesn't shoot well. North Carolina would be fun.
Anyway, there are one million tournaments kicking off today so no need for preamble. God knows there'll be enough words for you to read.
ATLANTIC 10:
When did the A-10 become all competitive and deep and fun? This conference has five 20+ game winners already, three more teams with at 17 wins, and eight of fourteen teams finished with a winning record in conference play. They also have four Top 50 teams in kenpom's rankings, and two more in the top 75 with a few more just outside the Top 100. This tournament is going to be wild.
FAVORITE: Davidson. The Wildcats stormed to the #1 seed by winning their final 9 games with four of those wins coming over fellow contenders. Davidson has one of the most fun offenses in the country, playing fast but taking care of the ball, whipping it around the perimeter and draining threes. The register a ton of assists (61% of baskets, ranks 28th), get forty percent of their points from three (ranks 5th), and score 1.9 points per possession (6th in country). All this while playing fast. Super, super fun team.
SLEEPER: VCU. There's no mistaking it - when Briante Weber went down with a knee injury VCU's season derailed. They lost that game and then went 5-5 the rest of the way without any kind of good win. However this is a really talented team with an extremely good coach. Weber was a huge key on both sides of the ball for the Rams, obviously, but would it really surprise you to see Shaka Smart figure something out and go on a run?
THE PICK: Dayton. I can't shake the memory of that run Dayton went on in the NCAAs last year. Yes, each year is different so this isn't the exact same team, but Jordan Sibert and Dyshawn Pierre are both back and looking at their season long results (23-7) they only have one bad loss. Dayton also pretty much shuts down the 3-point line so if it comes down to a Davidson vs. Dayton match-up the Flyers should be able to hang. Though Davidson did beat them by 17 earlier while hitting 12-23 threes. Well, too late to change the pick now.
BIG EAST:
Everyone loves to complain about how the old Big East is no more, and with good reason because those old tournaments were awesome (stupid football). But the new Big East is pretty good. Creighton was a great story last year, and this year Villanova would be getting all kind of attention if it wasn't for Kentucky. The Wildcats (Nova version) have won 12 in row, are 29-2 overall, have played one bad game all year, and have six guys who average between nine and fourteen points per game. Georgetown, Butler, Xavier, Providence, and St. John's are all really good too. You can take away the football schools, but the Big East is still a hell of a basketball conference.
FAVORITE: Villanova. I guess I kind of wrote them up above, but this is a really good team. In that 12 game winning streak to close the season they beat Georgetown, Butler, and St. John's while sweeping Creighton and Providence. That's not beating up on the dregs of the conference, that's just whooping up everybody.
SLEEPER: Providence. This team should be better than it has been, and it's been pretty good (21-10, 11-7). LaDontae Henton is a 20 point per game scorer, and Kris Dunn has triple double potential every time out (15.5 points, 5.6 rebs, 7.4 assists per game). For whatever reason they just lose to every really good team they play. Maybe that's who they are and they're actually just a slightly above average team. Maybe they just need something to spark.
THE PICK: Villanova. Not really sure what else to write here. These guys are really good. They shoot the ball well from everywhere, they take care of the basketball, they get to the free throw line a lot, and they're one of the top assist teams in the country. They also play very good defense, create turnovers, don't foul, and have size and experience. The only real weakness is they aren't a great rebounding team and maybe that bites them in the NCAA Tournament at some point, and Butler could be a bit of a problem but they won't face them until the championship, if they get there. This team's really good.
BIG TEN:
Hey, you've probably heard of these guys. It's kind of a weird year in the Big Ten, because I only really see one Final Four contender. Plenty of Sweet 16 type teams, but other than the stupid Badgers I don't see anyone else advancing past early in the second week at best. Maryland doesn't seem good enough to be a 3 seed from what I've seen, Michigan State certainly has the talent and the Izzo to possibly do that thing Tom Izzo always does, and De'Angelo Russell is good enough to carry the team John Wallace style, but in general I think the Sweet 16 is the ceiling for most of these teams.
FAVORITE: Wisconsin. Like I said, the Badgers are pretty prohibitive favorite here. The won the conference by two games, and by 4+ over everyone except Maryland. This year's version of the Badgers is basically the same as always - play slow, take care of the ball, shoot well and immediately get back on defense to limit transition opportunities, play good defense without taking any chances, allow few offensive rebounds and don't foul (comes with no chances, also no turnovers). This year's version is the most perfect version Bo Ryan has put together, that offensive is the #1 in the country in points per possession, and they have a legitimate star in Frank Kaminsky. As an added wrinkle they actually have some athletic ability with both Sam Dekker and Nigel Hayes, and Bronson Koenig has stepped in for Traveon Jackson with no issue - and Jackson might be back. Yuck.
SLEEPER: Minnesota. Homer alert, yes I know, but hear me out. The Gophers possess a couple of the main characteristics I've outlined in all these previews for a potential sleeper: they have a trait different from most of the rest of the conference (they're the fastest team in the B10), and they have a skill that, if everything breaks right, can win a game all on it's own in their ability to force turnovers (they rank 8th). They've also been right there in almost every game they've lost - the only games that were basically over prior to the endgame were @Maryland, @Indiana, and the two Wisconsin games. I know watching this team all year has you rolling your eyes and shaking your head and I'm with you, but they profile as a sleeper and they wouldn't have to face Wisconsin until a potential final. Stranger things have happened. Probably.
THE PICK: Michigan State. Though Wisconsin is the best team, they also seem to usually take the Big Ten Tournament off having one just once since 2008, and the Spartans seem the best bet to step in and win. The Spartans have that incredible trio of Dawson, Trice, and Valentine and Izzo seems to have the team peaking at the end of the year, as per usual. Sparty closed out 8-3, and even though one of those losses was against the Gophers, I'll give them a pass.
BIG 12:
Everyone says this is the best conference this year, kenpom has them well clear of everyone else, and maybe they're right. Kansas, Oklahoma, Baylor, and Iowa State all have a chance at the Final Four, and I guess you can't forget about West Virginia. You can, however, forget about Oklahoma State if you want. They've completely faded, losing five of their last six. ESPN still has them in as an 11 seed, but unless something changes they have no chance at upsetting anyone.
FAVORITE: Kansas. The Jayhawks are the most confusing team to me this year. At times, I've thought I'd probably pick them to make the Final Four. At other times, they look like a first round upset candidate. At their best they're a hyper athletic bunch with an inside presence, good perimeter shooting, and a bunch of guys who can defend all over the court. At others, they look lost, struggle in the half court offense, and get crushed on the boards. This is why you have a team who can go 13-5 in the best conference in basketball who also got absolutely crushed by Temple. I'm clueless.
SLEEPER: West Virginia. When I think of teams jumping up and doing unexpected things I usually figure they're a team with a star who can carry the team (Juwan Staten?), a team who does one thing so exceptionally well they can swing a game just on that alone (WVU #1 in forcing turnovers in the country), and a team who plays a pace, either slow or fast, that can make other teams uncomfortable (26th fastest team). WVU checks those boxes. Their actual shooting and defense are pretty suspect so It'd probably have to be pretty fluky, but they could do it.
THE PICK: Oklahoma. Some teams just seem built for a tournament type run, call it the eye test or what have you, but for me both Oklahoma and Iowa State seem like those kind of teams to me. They're both very athletic, fast teams who play a hectic pace, while Iowa State excels on offense and Oklahoma on defense. I'm giving the nod to the Sooners because they're a better offensive team than Iowa State is defensive, and Oklahoma's star, Buddy Hield, seems to be trending up while Iowa State's, Georges Niang, is trending down.
CONFERENCE USA:
This is another conference that got rocked by realignment, losing Louisville, Memphis, Cincinnati, and Marquette (among others) over the last ten years - basically every one of their flagship programs. Louisiana Tech has been on the fringe of an at large bid the last couple of years and Old Dominion is near the bubble this year, but I don't think C-USA has been a multi-bid conference in a while. They're still a young conference, so maybe they'll grow into the MVC someday, but they're closer to a low major than a mid major right now.
FAVORITE: Louisiana Tech. This is the third straight year the Bulldogs have won a regular season title - the last two in C-USA and the prior season in the WAC. Yet they haven't been to the NCAA Tournament since 1991 because they've bombed out in the conference tournament every year. Coach Michael White (sounds made up) has established his system in Louisiana, and every year the Bulldogs play fast, play good defense, and create a ton of turnovers while limiting their own. It's worked in the regular season, but like Billy Beane so far his shit doesn't work in the playoffs. Hopefully this is finally the year.
SLEEPER: Western Kentucky. They've won the conference tournament two of the last three years, and won five times in the 2000s in the Sun Belt so they know what they're doing at the end of the year. WKU seems to jump up and become an NCAA Tournament sleeper every few years, led by a star like Courtney Lee, Orlando Mendez-Valdez, or A.J. Slaughter. They certainly have another candidate this year in senior guard T.J. Price, who led the conference in scoring at 17.6 points per game while hitting 42% of his threes. He could certainly carry this team, and he's got three other double digit scorers to help out. Of course, it's hard to believe a team that lost to the Gophers could go on to have any success.
THE PICK: UTEP. I liked UTEP to start the year, and although they haven't done anything to make me say hey wow look at UTEP, they haven't bombed out either. 13-5 in conference play with the #2 offense and #3 defense in CUSA, they're a definite contender, and an early nonconference win over Xavier is better than anything else anyone in the conference can point to. The Miners did get swept by La Tech, but they won't have to face them unless they both make the final, and Tech is flawed enough they might not make it. UTEP can handle anyone else.
MOUNTAIN WEST:
Well it was a run Mountain West Conference. After ranking as a Top 10 Conference by kenpom from 2002-2014, the Mountain West dropped to 12th this year. That might not seem like a big deal, but another way to look at it is after easily putting multiple teams in the tournament year after year, the MWC might be a one bid league this year.
FAVORITE: San Diego State. The only MWC team guaranteed of a bid this year, the Aztecs have a little bit of a dynasty going on here under Steve Fisher with four regular season titles in the last five seasons, though they've only won one conference tournament in that time. This year will also mark their sixth straight NCAA Tournament appearance, with the Aztecs advancing past the first round three times, including a Sweet 16 appearance last season. It's the same team as every other year, although this year might be Fisher's most extreme - it's his best offense and his worst defense in this run of success. Eventually you gotta score. Unlike you in high school.
SLEEPER: Wyoming. Everything started out great for the Cowboys. They came out of the gate at 15-2, including a 4-0 conference start which included wins over Colorado, Colorado State, and Boise State. Then an understandable loss to San Diego State, and two overtime wins and they were 17-3 and 6-1 and dreams of an NCAA bid, their first since 2002, appeared. And then the bottom fell. The Cowboys won just 5 the rest of the way against six losses and the at large dream disappeared. They did lose leading scorer and rebounder Larry Nance Jr. for four games to injury but he's back now, and although Wyoming has gone just 1-3 since his return if they can refind that early season form they could make a run.
THE PICK: Boise State. Similar to Wyoming, Boise State started out well at 10-2 with losses to just Wisconsin and NC State. Similar to Wyoming, they dealt with an injury to last season's leading scorer Anthony Drmic, only he was out for the season. They had a mid-season hiccup, a four game losing streak that killed any at large chances, but since then they've been on fire, going 14-1 to close out the season. The Broncos' second leading scorer last year, Derrick Marks, has completely put this team on his back, averaging over 20 points per game over this stretch, hitting 30 points three times. Oh yeah, they also swept SDSU. So there's that.
PAC 12:
Talk about a top heavy league. Arizona and Utah are top 8 teams per kenpom, then next up is Stanford at #44 (though they seem to be tanking with a 2-5 close to the season). The Wildcats and Utes are both Top 25 in the country in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and the only other team to reach Top 25 in either is Oregon State on defense. Unfortunately, in my opinion, both those teams are super vulnerable. Could be another bad year for the Pac 12. Or Arizona could win the title. What am I, Nostradamus?
FAVORITE: Arizona. So Arizona is 28-3 with a Top 11 mark in both O and D efficiency, so what's my problem? I just haven't been impressed. Nobody on the team seems to be a reliable bet to show up all the time. Just look at their losses this year: UNLV, Oregon State, and Arizona State. Now way around it, those are all three bad losses. Their top end play is as good as it gets with sweeps of Utah, Stanford, and Oregon with non-conference wins over Gonzaga and San Diego State, but how to explain those losses?
SLEEPER: Oregon. Tough to find a sleeper in such a top heavy conference with so many horrible teams at the bottom, but the Ducks stand out. The closed the season 11-2 and mixed a win over Utah in there. They had a shaky start to the season but looking back other than a disastrous trip out to Washington where they got swept their worst loss is to Michigan, so they've mainly taken care of business against bad teams. Joseph Young is the type who can carry a team to a conference title on his own, and if he can't he'll certainly shoot enough to try.
THE PICK: Arizona. I can also completely see them flaming out in their first game, but who else am I going to pick? I should probably trust Utah more than I do looking at their profile and advanced stats, but they just seem to be missing something. Stanford is terrible now, and Oregon just has too many flaws. UCLA is the only other team under consideration, but they've mostly spent the year beating bad and average teams and losing to good ones. Then again, I suppose they need these games more than anyone else so maybe they'll win. I don't know.
SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE:
There was a time, and I think it was true, where John Calipari was a pretty terrible coach. He won because he could recruit, but to call him a great coach was a pretty big stretch. When he won his first national title with that Kentucky team I thought "Man he's lucky. All the best talent and they're all unselfish too. He's lucky Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist don't care about getting the ball." Now, however, he's done it again with an even more talented group. It's clear he's got a skill here. You can boil down a coach to three basic pieces: recruiting, roster management (including player development), and game planning. Calipari has aced two of the three, and is probably average at the third. Hard to argue he shouldn't be called a great coach at this point.
FAVORITE: Kentucky. Duh. Besides the undefeated record, Kentucky finished #1 in both offensive and defensive efficiency in SEC play, and #1 and #8 in DE and OE in the entire country for the season. Kenpom's top 5 players in the conference is made up of 4 Kentucky guys. Yeah, they got pushed to OT by inferior foes in Ole Miss and Texas A&M, but that was back in early January. Since then they've only had five of sixteen games end with a margin in single digits. They're the most talented team in the country and they're peaking. Great.
SLEEPER: Florida. Simply because it's hard for me to believe a Billy Donovan led Gator team could be this bad. I mean their final record was 15-16, which means they aren't even eligible for the NIT. Bizarre. They can still play defense, just .907 points per possession, which ranks 9th in the country this year, and most of their losses have been extremely close so they're not too far from turning it around - only Kentucky has beaten them by double figures since mid-January. A lot of bad luck for this team, maybe things tip here.
THE PICK: Kentucky. Duh. Again. It's going to take some extraordinary circumstances for Kentucky to lose this year. The most interesting game for them will be in round 2, where they will probably face the best team they've played since Arkansas over a month ago. The eight or nine seed will be someone along the lines of North Carolina State or Ohio State, and they'd be a second or third place team in the SEC. I'm interested to see Kentucky against some top competition again, but I can't fathom not picking them to not only win the SEC Tournament, but the NCAA Tournament as well.
SOUTHLAND:
The Southland is not dissimilar to the Ohio Valley - there's a great team here, one that dominated the conference, in this case going 17-1. A team that rates well at kenpom at #43 (Murray State is #77), and a team that has no chance at an at-large bid because of the weak conference competition and a bad non-conference schedule (though they do have a win over Memphis and an overtime loss to Northern Iowa). Yes, Stephen F. Austin is essentially Murray State all over again - they can win a game or two in the NCAA Tournament, but they have no margin for error to get there.
FAVORITE: Stephen F Austin. The Lumberjacks are back again, once again dominating the Southland by playing pressing like crazy (#4 in creating turnovers this year), and passing (#4 in assist percentage) and shooting the ball well (#10 in eFG). Last year they finished the regular season 29-2 and 18-0 in conference, won the conference tournament, and went on to beat VCU in an overtime thriller in round 1. Hopefully they can get through again, because this could legitimately be a Sweet 16 team. No lie.
SLEEPER: Northwestern State. Even though SFA swept Northwestern State this season, the Demons game looks like it could give the Lumberjacks fits. They're the fastest team in the conference so SFA's pace won't throw them (though the majority of the conference is pretty fast anyway), they don't turn the ball over at all, so that could cut Austin's advantage down, and they're a super efficient scoring team so they could score enough points to keep up with the Lumberjacks. Now, their defense is horrible so they'll have to score a ton to keep up with what SFA will put up, but still I'd rather see Northwestern State knocked off before they get a shot at Austin in the semifinals.
THE PICK: Stephen F Austin. We've already lost two potential giant killers in Iona and Murray State, please don't take our Lumberjacks away from us as well. With two of their big scorers back from last year's team we need these guys back in the tournament - they're fun as hell.
SWAC:
Pretty much always the bottom ranked conference at kenpom year after year and usually with some teams not eligible for the post season because of ARP issues, this year the SWAC is the bottom ranked conference at kenpom and is dealing with some teams not being eligible for the postseason due to ARP issues. There are 10 teams in this mess of a conference, and four of them - Southern, Arkansas Pine Bluff, Mississippi Valley State, and Grambling - are ineligible for post season play. They all get to participate in the SWAC Tournament, though Southern, the second place team in the league, is the only one with much of a chance to win. And then send the loser of the championship to the NCAAs. Unless they're ineligible too. Then I don't know what happens. Just disband the SWAC already.
FAVORITE: Texas Southern. Last season the Tigers rode LaSalle and WVU transfer Aaric Murray and a few other transfers to a SWAC Ttile and a berth in the First Four (lost to Cal Poly). This year, the returning Madarious Gibbs is joined by a handful of transfers, and despite a whole lot of roster turnover they're in position to make it back to the First Four. Don't forget, Texas Southern hasn't just beaten up on their conference foes - they have wins this year over Michigan State and Kansas State. I'm not sure how though. They're terrible at everything.
SLEEPER: Alabama State. The Hornets were #2 in both offensive and defensive efficiency in SWAC play this year, while Texas Southern was #1 in offensive but #5 in defensive. They did get swept by Texas Southern this year, but they pretty much handled everyone else.
THE PICK: Texas Southern. Their stat sheet looks horrible, but they have those wins over Michigan State and Kansas State and they did win the regular season crown. Anything can happen with teams that are this bad, so sticking with the chalk makes sense. Or just throw a dart, but make sure it doesn't hit an ineligible team.
Whew. That was a lot. I'm tired.
Anyway, there are one million tournaments kicking off today so no need for preamble. God knows there'll be enough words for you to read.
ATLANTIC 10:
When did the A-10 become all competitive and deep and fun? This conference has five 20+ game winners already, three more teams with at 17 wins, and eight of fourteen teams finished with a winning record in conference play. They also have four Top 50 teams in kenpom's rankings, and two more in the top 75 with a few more just outside the Top 100. This tournament is going to be wild.
FAVORITE: Davidson. The Wildcats stormed to the #1 seed by winning their final 9 games with four of those wins coming over fellow contenders. Davidson has one of the most fun offenses in the country, playing fast but taking care of the ball, whipping it around the perimeter and draining threes. The register a ton of assists (61% of baskets, ranks 28th), get forty percent of their points from three (ranks 5th), and score 1.9 points per possession (6th in country). All this while playing fast. Super, super fun team.
SLEEPER: VCU. There's no mistaking it - when Briante Weber went down with a knee injury VCU's season derailed. They lost that game and then went 5-5 the rest of the way without any kind of good win. However this is a really talented team with an extremely good coach. Weber was a huge key on both sides of the ball for the Rams, obviously, but would it really surprise you to see Shaka Smart figure something out and go on a run?
THE PICK: Dayton. I can't shake the memory of that run Dayton went on in the NCAAs last year. Yes, each year is different so this isn't the exact same team, but Jordan Sibert and Dyshawn Pierre are both back and looking at their season long results (23-7) they only have one bad loss. Dayton also pretty much shuts down the 3-point line so if it comes down to a Davidson vs. Dayton match-up the Flyers should be able to hang. Though Davidson did beat them by 17 earlier while hitting 12-23 threes. Well, too late to change the pick now.
BIG EAST:
Everyone loves to complain about how the old Big East is no more, and with good reason because those old tournaments were awesome (stupid football). But the new Big East is pretty good. Creighton was a great story last year, and this year Villanova would be getting all kind of attention if it wasn't for Kentucky. The Wildcats (Nova version) have won 12 in row, are 29-2 overall, have played one bad game all year, and have six guys who average between nine and fourteen points per game. Georgetown, Butler, Xavier, Providence, and St. John's are all really good too. You can take away the football schools, but the Big East is still a hell of a basketball conference.
FAVORITE: Villanova. I guess I kind of wrote them up above, but this is a really good team. In that 12 game winning streak to close the season they beat Georgetown, Butler, and St. John's while sweeping Creighton and Providence. That's not beating up on the dregs of the conference, that's just whooping up everybody.
SLEEPER: Providence. This team should be better than it has been, and it's been pretty good (21-10, 11-7). LaDontae Henton is a 20 point per game scorer, and Kris Dunn has triple double potential every time out (15.5 points, 5.6 rebs, 7.4 assists per game). For whatever reason they just lose to every really good team they play. Maybe that's who they are and they're actually just a slightly above average team. Maybe they just need something to spark.
THE PICK: Villanova. Not really sure what else to write here. These guys are really good. They shoot the ball well from everywhere, they take care of the basketball, they get to the free throw line a lot, and they're one of the top assist teams in the country. They also play very good defense, create turnovers, don't foul, and have size and experience. The only real weakness is they aren't a great rebounding team and maybe that bites them in the NCAA Tournament at some point, and Butler could be a bit of a problem but they won't face them until the championship, if they get there. This team's really good.
BIG TEN:
Hey, you've probably heard of these guys. It's kind of a weird year in the Big Ten, because I only really see one Final Four contender. Plenty of Sweet 16 type teams, but other than the stupid Badgers I don't see anyone else advancing past early in the second week at best. Maryland doesn't seem good enough to be a 3 seed from what I've seen, Michigan State certainly has the talent and the Izzo to possibly do that thing Tom Izzo always does, and De'Angelo Russell is good enough to carry the team John Wallace style, but in general I think the Sweet 16 is the ceiling for most of these teams.
FAVORITE: Wisconsin. Like I said, the Badgers are pretty prohibitive favorite here. The won the conference by two games, and by 4+ over everyone except Maryland. This year's version of the Badgers is basically the same as always - play slow, take care of the ball, shoot well and immediately get back on defense to limit transition opportunities, play good defense without taking any chances, allow few offensive rebounds and don't foul (comes with no chances, also no turnovers). This year's version is the most perfect version Bo Ryan has put together, that offensive is the #1 in the country in points per possession, and they have a legitimate star in Frank Kaminsky. As an added wrinkle they actually have some athletic ability with both Sam Dekker and Nigel Hayes, and Bronson Koenig has stepped in for Traveon Jackson with no issue - and Jackson might be back. Yuck.
SLEEPER: Minnesota. Homer alert, yes I know, but hear me out. The Gophers possess a couple of the main characteristics I've outlined in all these previews for a potential sleeper: they have a trait different from most of the rest of the conference (they're the fastest team in the B10), and they have a skill that, if everything breaks right, can win a game all on it's own in their ability to force turnovers (they rank 8th). They've also been right there in almost every game they've lost - the only games that were basically over prior to the endgame were @Maryland, @Indiana, and the two Wisconsin games. I know watching this team all year has you rolling your eyes and shaking your head and I'm with you, but they profile as a sleeper and they wouldn't have to face Wisconsin until a potential final. Stranger things have happened. Probably.
THE PICK: Michigan State. Though Wisconsin is the best team, they also seem to usually take the Big Ten Tournament off having one just once since 2008, and the Spartans seem the best bet to step in and win. The Spartans have that incredible trio of Dawson, Trice, and Valentine and Izzo seems to have the team peaking at the end of the year, as per usual. Sparty closed out 8-3, and even though one of those losses was against the Gophers, I'll give them a pass.
BIG 12:
Everyone says this is the best conference this year, kenpom has them well clear of everyone else, and maybe they're right. Kansas, Oklahoma, Baylor, and Iowa State all have a chance at the Final Four, and I guess you can't forget about West Virginia. You can, however, forget about Oklahoma State if you want. They've completely faded, losing five of their last six. ESPN still has them in as an 11 seed, but unless something changes they have no chance at upsetting anyone.
FAVORITE: Kansas. The Jayhawks are the most confusing team to me this year. At times, I've thought I'd probably pick them to make the Final Four. At other times, they look like a first round upset candidate. At their best they're a hyper athletic bunch with an inside presence, good perimeter shooting, and a bunch of guys who can defend all over the court. At others, they look lost, struggle in the half court offense, and get crushed on the boards. This is why you have a team who can go 13-5 in the best conference in basketball who also got absolutely crushed by Temple. I'm clueless.
SLEEPER: West Virginia. When I think of teams jumping up and doing unexpected things I usually figure they're a team with a star who can carry the team (Juwan Staten?), a team who does one thing so exceptionally well they can swing a game just on that alone (WVU #1 in forcing turnovers in the country), and a team who plays a pace, either slow or fast, that can make other teams uncomfortable (26th fastest team). WVU checks those boxes. Their actual shooting and defense are pretty suspect so It'd probably have to be pretty fluky, but they could do it.
THE PICK: Oklahoma. Some teams just seem built for a tournament type run, call it the eye test or what have you, but for me both Oklahoma and Iowa State seem like those kind of teams to me. They're both very athletic, fast teams who play a hectic pace, while Iowa State excels on offense and Oklahoma on defense. I'm giving the nod to the Sooners because they're a better offensive team than Iowa State is defensive, and Oklahoma's star, Buddy Hield, seems to be trending up while Iowa State's, Georges Niang, is trending down.
CONFERENCE USA:
This is another conference that got rocked by realignment, losing Louisville, Memphis, Cincinnati, and Marquette (among others) over the last ten years - basically every one of their flagship programs. Louisiana Tech has been on the fringe of an at large bid the last couple of years and Old Dominion is near the bubble this year, but I don't think C-USA has been a multi-bid conference in a while. They're still a young conference, so maybe they'll grow into the MVC someday, but they're closer to a low major than a mid major right now.
FAVORITE: Louisiana Tech. This is the third straight year the Bulldogs have won a regular season title - the last two in C-USA and the prior season in the WAC. Yet they haven't been to the NCAA Tournament since 1991 because they've bombed out in the conference tournament every year. Coach Michael White (sounds made up) has established his system in Louisiana, and every year the Bulldogs play fast, play good defense, and create a ton of turnovers while limiting their own. It's worked in the regular season, but like Billy Beane so far his shit doesn't work in the playoffs. Hopefully this is finally the year.
SLEEPER: Western Kentucky. They've won the conference tournament two of the last three years, and won five times in the 2000s in the Sun Belt so they know what they're doing at the end of the year. WKU seems to jump up and become an NCAA Tournament sleeper every few years, led by a star like Courtney Lee, Orlando Mendez-Valdez, or A.J. Slaughter. They certainly have another candidate this year in senior guard T.J. Price, who led the conference in scoring at 17.6 points per game while hitting 42% of his threes. He could certainly carry this team, and he's got three other double digit scorers to help out. Of course, it's hard to believe a team that lost to the Gophers could go on to have any success.
THE PICK: UTEP. I liked UTEP to start the year, and although they haven't done anything to make me say hey wow look at UTEP, they haven't bombed out either. 13-5 in conference play with the #2 offense and #3 defense in CUSA, they're a definite contender, and an early nonconference win over Xavier is better than anything else anyone in the conference can point to. The Miners did get swept by La Tech, but they won't have to face them unless they both make the final, and Tech is flawed enough they might not make it. UTEP can handle anyone else.
MOUNTAIN WEST:
Well it was a run Mountain West Conference. After ranking as a Top 10 Conference by kenpom from 2002-2014, the Mountain West dropped to 12th this year. That might not seem like a big deal, but another way to look at it is after easily putting multiple teams in the tournament year after year, the MWC might be a one bid league this year.
FAVORITE: San Diego State. The only MWC team guaranteed of a bid this year, the Aztecs have a little bit of a dynasty going on here under Steve Fisher with four regular season titles in the last five seasons, though they've only won one conference tournament in that time. This year will also mark their sixth straight NCAA Tournament appearance, with the Aztecs advancing past the first round three times, including a Sweet 16 appearance last season. It's the same team as every other year, although this year might be Fisher's most extreme - it's his best offense and his worst defense in this run of success. Eventually you gotta score. Unlike you in high school.
SLEEPER: Wyoming. Everything started out great for the Cowboys. They came out of the gate at 15-2, including a 4-0 conference start which included wins over Colorado, Colorado State, and Boise State. Then an understandable loss to San Diego State, and two overtime wins and they were 17-3 and 6-1 and dreams of an NCAA bid, their first since 2002, appeared. And then the bottom fell. The Cowboys won just 5 the rest of the way against six losses and the at large dream disappeared. They did lose leading scorer and rebounder Larry Nance Jr. for four games to injury but he's back now, and although Wyoming has gone just 1-3 since his return if they can refind that early season form they could make a run.
THE PICK: Boise State. Similar to Wyoming, Boise State started out well at 10-2 with losses to just Wisconsin and NC State. Similar to Wyoming, they dealt with an injury to last season's leading scorer Anthony Drmic, only he was out for the season. They had a mid-season hiccup, a four game losing streak that killed any at large chances, but since then they've been on fire, going 14-1 to close out the season. The Broncos' second leading scorer last year, Derrick Marks, has completely put this team on his back, averaging over 20 points per game over this stretch, hitting 30 points three times. Oh yeah, they also swept SDSU. So there's that.
PAC 12:
Talk about a top heavy league. Arizona and Utah are top 8 teams per kenpom, then next up is Stanford at #44 (though they seem to be tanking with a 2-5 close to the season). The Wildcats and Utes are both Top 25 in the country in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and the only other team to reach Top 25 in either is Oregon State on defense. Unfortunately, in my opinion, both those teams are super vulnerable. Could be another bad year for the Pac 12. Or Arizona could win the title. What am I, Nostradamus?
FAVORITE: Arizona. So Arizona is 28-3 with a Top 11 mark in both O and D efficiency, so what's my problem? I just haven't been impressed. Nobody on the team seems to be a reliable bet to show up all the time. Just look at their losses this year: UNLV, Oregon State, and Arizona State. Now way around it, those are all three bad losses. Their top end play is as good as it gets with sweeps of Utah, Stanford, and Oregon with non-conference wins over Gonzaga and San Diego State, but how to explain those losses?
SLEEPER: Oregon. Tough to find a sleeper in such a top heavy conference with so many horrible teams at the bottom, but the Ducks stand out. The closed the season 11-2 and mixed a win over Utah in there. They had a shaky start to the season but looking back other than a disastrous trip out to Washington where they got swept their worst loss is to Michigan, so they've mainly taken care of business against bad teams. Joseph Young is the type who can carry a team to a conference title on his own, and if he can't he'll certainly shoot enough to try.
THE PICK: Arizona. I can also completely see them flaming out in their first game, but who else am I going to pick? I should probably trust Utah more than I do looking at their profile and advanced stats, but they just seem to be missing something. Stanford is terrible now, and Oregon just has too many flaws. UCLA is the only other team under consideration, but they've mostly spent the year beating bad and average teams and losing to good ones. Then again, I suppose they need these games more than anyone else so maybe they'll win. I don't know.
SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE:
There was a time, and I think it was true, where John Calipari was a pretty terrible coach. He won because he could recruit, but to call him a great coach was a pretty big stretch. When he won his first national title with that Kentucky team I thought "Man he's lucky. All the best talent and they're all unselfish too. He's lucky Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist don't care about getting the ball." Now, however, he's done it again with an even more talented group. It's clear he's got a skill here. You can boil down a coach to three basic pieces: recruiting, roster management (including player development), and game planning. Calipari has aced two of the three, and is probably average at the third. Hard to argue he shouldn't be called a great coach at this point.
FAVORITE: Kentucky. Duh. Besides the undefeated record, Kentucky finished #1 in both offensive and defensive efficiency in SEC play, and #1 and #8 in DE and OE in the entire country for the season. Kenpom's top 5 players in the conference is made up of 4 Kentucky guys. Yeah, they got pushed to OT by inferior foes in Ole Miss and Texas A&M, but that was back in early January. Since then they've only had five of sixteen games end with a margin in single digits. They're the most talented team in the country and they're peaking. Great.
SLEEPER: Florida. Simply because it's hard for me to believe a Billy Donovan led Gator team could be this bad. I mean their final record was 15-16, which means they aren't even eligible for the NIT. Bizarre. They can still play defense, just .907 points per possession, which ranks 9th in the country this year, and most of their losses have been extremely close so they're not too far from turning it around - only Kentucky has beaten them by double figures since mid-January. A lot of bad luck for this team, maybe things tip here.
THE PICK: Kentucky. Duh. Again. It's going to take some extraordinary circumstances for Kentucky to lose this year. The most interesting game for them will be in round 2, where they will probably face the best team they've played since Arkansas over a month ago. The eight or nine seed will be someone along the lines of North Carolina State or Ohio State, and they'd be a second or third place team in the SEC. I'm interested to see Kentucky against some top competition again, but I can't fathom not picking them to not only win the SEC Tournament, but the NCAA Tournament as well.
SOUTHLAND:
The Southland is not dissimilar to the Ohio Valley - there's a great team here, one that dominated the conference, in this case going 17-1. A team that rates well at kenpom at #43 (Murray State is #77), and a team that has no chance at an at-large bid because of the weak conference competition and a bad non-conference schedule (though they do have a win over Memphis and an overtime loss to Northern Iowa). Yes, Stephen F. Austin is essentially Murray State all over again - they can win a game or two in the NCAA Tournament, but they have no margin for error to get there.
FAVORITE: Stephen F Austin. The Lumberjacks are back again, once again dominating the Southland by playing pressing like crazy (#4 in creating turnovers this year), and passing (#4 in assist percentage) and shooting the ball well (#10 in eFG). Last year they finished the regular season 29-2 and 18-0 in conference, won the conference tournament, and went on to beat VCU in an overtime thriller in round 1. Hopefully they can get through again, because this could legitimately be a Sweet 16 team. No lie.
SLEEPER: Northwestern State. Even though SFA swept Northwestern State this season, the Demons game looks like it could give the Lumberjacks fits. They're the fastest team in the conference so SFA's pace won't throw them (though the majority of the conference is pretty fast anyway), they don't turn the ball over at all, so that could cut Austin's advantage down, and they're a super efficient scoring team so they could score enough points to keep up with the Lumberjacks. Now, their defense is horrible so they'll have to score a ton to keep up with what SFA will put up, but still I'd rather see Northwestern State knocked off before they get a shot at Austin in the semifinals.
THE PICK: Stephen F Austin. We've already lost two potential giant killers in Iona and Murray State, please don't take our Lumberjacks away from us as well. With two of their big scorers back from last year's team we need these guys back in the tournament - they're fun as hell.
SWAC:
Pretty much always the bottom ranked conference at kenpom year after year and usually with some teams not eligible for the post season because of ARP issues, this year the SWAC is the bottom ranked conference at kenpom and is dealing with some teams not being eligible for the postseason due to ARP issues. There are 10 teams in this mess of a conference, and four of them - Southern, Arkansas Pine Bluff, Mississippi Valley State, and Grambling - are ineligible for post season play. They all get to participate in the SWAC Tournament, though Southern, the second place team in the league, is the only one with much of a chance to win. And then send the loser of the championship to the NCAAs. Unless they're ineligible too. Then I don't know what happens. Just disband the SWAC already.
FAVORITE: Texas Southern. Last season the Tigers rode LaSalle and WVU transfer Aaric Murray and a few other transfers to a SWAC Ttile and a berth in the First Four (lost to Cal Poly). This year, the returning Madarious Gibbs is joined by a handful of transfers, and despite a whole lot of roster turnover they're in position to make it back to the First Four. Don't forget, Texas Southern hasn't just beaten up on their conference foes - they have wins this year over Michigan State and Kansas State. I'm not sure how though. They're terrible at everything.
SLEEPER: Alabama State. The Hornets were #2 in both offensive and defensive efficiency in SWAC play this year, while Texas Southern was #1 in offensive but #5 in defensive. They did get swept by Texas Southern this year, but they pretty much handled everyone else.
THE PICK: Texas Southern. Their stat sheet looks horrible, but they have those wins over Michigan State and Kansas State and they did win the regular season crown. Anything can happen with teams that are this bad, so sticking with the chalk makes sense. Or just throw a dart, but make sure it doesn't hit an ineligible team.
Whew. That was a lot. I'm tired.
Monday, December 22, 2014
Notes on Baseball, and a Little Hoops
It's the middle of winter, I have a billion days off, and there's lots going on that I haven't gotten to. So here's some of that.
- First off, the Torii Hunter signing. Ugh. Hate it. Absolutely hate it and it was made for all the wrong reasons. So all the moms and wives and sisters and casual fans will say "Yay! I love Torii Hunter I'm so glad he's back let's go to a game!" even though the team sucks. And they're going to suck this year. The Twins are not going to contend for anything until 2016 at the earliest, and Hunter will be gone so it's a completely pointless signing.
A bridge to 2016 you say? No. He's not good anymore. He's just not. He's turned into a terrible fielder (not his fault, he's just old) and you can find a billion links to in depth studies, more than just advanced metrics, that prove it. He hit the ball alright last year but he's been on a pretty steady downslope. Sure, it's one year so it's pretty low risk, but that $10 million a year could have gone towards another pitcher (Jason Hammel signed for that) and those at bats need to be going towards any of the billion of question mark outfielders the Twins have. Oswaldo Arcia and Aaron Hicks need as many ABs as possible so we can figure out what they are. Even Jordan Schafer may have some future value. Also.....wait......look at this 40-man roster. Look at the outfielders. There are no words. Just horrible.
Ok so Hunter won't steal too many at-bats that he shouldn't, but they still could have used that $10 million better than on a marketing stunt. The Santana and Hughes signings (hold on) showed that they were still going to spend beyond that $10 million, which was a big concern of mine at the time so maybe this isn't quite as bad as I thought. Actually, now looking at everything, as a pure baseball move it's just fine. I just hate the message, and I hate that they signed yet another washed up former Twin because he was a good guy when he was here (just not to the gays). I guess I'm pretty fed up right now, especially watching the Padres (small market) and White Sox (division rival) go all in, right after Kansas City's go all-inedness paid off with a trip to the World Series. I don't want to be patient any more. Let's just move along.
- More promising was the signing of Ervin Santana to a 4-year, $55 million deal. I don't love it as much as some others, but Santana has been a pretty solid pitcher in four of the last five seasons, and although that one bad season was a disaster it's looking like more of a fluke than anything. The $13-$14 million per year may be a bit of an overpay, but it's probably worth it to get a real major league pitcher, especially one who struck out north of 8 batters per 9 innings per last season (a stat which makes me wonder if the Twins had an aneurysm or something and missed the fact that he can actually miss bats).
Santana will be 35 by the end of the contract, which isn't ancient but is a little stomach turning, and who knows what kind of pitcher he'll be by then, but if the plan is to contend for the playoffs in 2016 he should be a key cog. That's the hope anyway. Both Santana and Hughes have some risk (hold on) so counting on them to be your front of the rotation guys is a little dicey, but it's a damn sight better than counting on Mike Pelfrey or Kevin Correia. That may not be saying much, but hey, at least they're spending on potentially quality pitching. Infinitely better than the Ricky Nolasco signing.
- The Twins also signed Phil Hughes to an extension, wiping out the last two years of his current deal and extending him three more in what is essentially a 5 year, $58 million deal. Although there's plenty of upside to the deal, since $11 million per will end up an absolute bargain if he can be the same pitcher he was last season, there are plenty of reasons to be nervous. Five years is a long time, $58 million is a ton of money for a team like the Twins, and prior to last season Hughes was a complete train wreck. I don't really understand why they felt the need to move now considering Hughes was under contract for two more seasons at a totally reasonable price. Why not let him start the year on his existing deal and then, if he looks like the stud he was last season, extend him then instead of taking $58 million worth of risk on one season of proven production?
Then again, there isn't anything in his numbers that suggests last season was a fluke. His BABIP was actually high, his FIP was almost a full run lower than his ERA, his K/BB ratio was an all-time record, and although his HR ratio probably dipped down below where it should be it should be offset by that high BABIP and his overall numbers should be around the same as last year. That kind of season is #1 pitcher territory, and based on WAR and the current rate being paid per win (note: I don't really know how this is calculated) Fangraphs estimates last season Hughes was worth around $30 million. If he pitches anywhere near that well maybe it's harder to extend him or becomes significantly more expensive. Hughes certainly cashed in on his great season, it's a matter of time to see who got fleeced. I'm hoping for Hughes.
- Another newly added Twin is J.R. Graham, a right-handed pitcher the Twins picked in the Rule 5 draft from the Atlanta Braves. Graham was a fourth round pick out of college and rose as high as a top 100 prospect according to both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus pre-2013 before arm issues derailed him. Last season he pitched in 27 games at Double-A (starting 19) and put up 5.55 ERA and 1.47 WHIP which are yuck. He was a stud at the lower levels before the injuries, so even with the ugly numbers last year he's probably worth taking the chance on. As a Rule 5 draftee Graham has to stay on the Twins Major League roster all season or be offered back to the Braves. Seeing as how Graham hasn't pitched above AA and did so poorly last year it's certainly a risk, but it worked for Ryan Pressly a couple of seasons ago. Expect to see Graham in a lot of blow out, non high leverage innings. Hopefully he does well.
- Last baseball thing I want to mention is how great it is to see San Diego just say "Fuck it" and go for it big time. They've constructed a completely new outfield of Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, and Wil Myers, acquired a new catcher in Derek Norris, and landed a young 3B in Will Middlebrooks. Considering the Padres were a historically horrible offense last year (their team total over/under in Vegas was frequently 2.5) replacing over half the lineup is not a bad idea, and they were able to do it without trading away any of their top 3 blue chip prospects (though they traded pretty much everyone else in the minors away). They also only had to ship out one of their starters, a team strength, and will go into next season with a mostly intact rotation. Two other signees, Josh Johnson and Brandon Morrow, have flashed a ton of talent but neither has had much success staying healthy - perfect signings to fill that #5 slot, really.
Of course, any time you take this kind of risk you are inviting disaster in countless ways. Kemp will be tasked with playing center field and by any metric or the eye test his body really isn't up to that any more. Myers had a really bad sophomore season and the Rays essentially totally gave up on him with questions about his work ethic. Norris is a big bat but is pretty horrendous defensively, and Middlebrooks has been underwhelming at best in his short career. I couldn't find anything bad to say about Upton.
This is all pessimism of course, since I'm a Minnesota fan, and I think these are fantastic risks for a team in need of a shot in the arm and I'd love the Twins to pursue a similar course once they think they're close to being a contender. They also now have an expendable Carlos Quentin, who can still hit the crap out of the ball when healthy - though he hasn't played more than 100 games since 2011 so who knows if he even can be healthy anymore. If he can get through the first half of the season or so healthy and hitting, expect the Padres to aggressively move him to an American League team since he's basically a born DH. It's a fun time to be a Padre fan. I hate them.
- Moving on to NCAA Hoops, uh, how good is Kentucky? My goodness they just overwhelm teams. The scary part is they're really winning with defense, because they have the most talent of anyone, they're incredibly athletic and tall (almost everyone who plays is 6-6 or bigger) and because they're so deep they can give total effort on the defensive end, knowing they won't have to conserve energy because they won't be playing heavy minutes. And everyone is buying into the concept. I'm really not interested in another Kentucky championship, but man I'm not sure how they don't end up winning.
Because they're so good defensively and so deep it's hard to see a team just jump up and beat them on a fluky night. The only two teams I see who could beat them this year are Duke and Louisville. Duke is nearly as deep and nearly as talented as Kentucky, so I could see them beating Kentucky if the Wildcats don't play their best game. Louisville is super talented and can almost match Kentucky's athleticism, and they play a style that could work against the Wildcats if they can speed them up (and we might find out on Saturday). Depressing? Yes, but I mean, watch these guys.
- Looks like the Gophers damn near dropped one to Furman tonight before rallying to win by 10. That's definitely not good, but looking around the Big Ten avoiding the home loss to the crappy opponent seems to be a key this season. I mean, Michigan lost to NJIT and Eastern Michigan, Michigan State lost to Texas Southern, Indiana lost to Eastern Washington, Northwestern lost to Central Michigan, Nebraska lost to Incarnate Word, Purdue lost to Gardner Webb and North Florida, and Rutgers lost to St. Francis and St. Peter's. These are all horrible, horrible losses. These aren't upsets, these are mega-upsets. Avoiding this loss to Furman keeps the Gophers record intact, along with Wisconsin, Iowa, Maryland, Ohio State, Illinois, and Penn State (depending on how you feel about Charlotte).
I can't really write much about tonight's game because I didn't realize the game was on ESPN3 until late in the second half, but I did manage to catch the last ten minutes or so of game time and Furman could not miss. Some of it is on the Gopher defense, yes, but the Paladins (for reals) hit a bunch of shots I'm willing to wager they don't usually knock down as well. Every so often you run into a buzzsaw, not getting chopped down is a good thing. As long as they don't come out and go down to the wire against Wilmington on Saturday you can pretty much just write this one off to a weird night - a weird night that didn't end up in a loss, a rarity in the B10 this year.
- Lastly, fantasy football is stupid.
- First off, the Torii Hunter signing. Ugh. Hate it. Absolutely hate it and it was made for all the wrong reasons. So all the moms and wives and sisters and casual fans will say "Yay! I love Torii Hunter I'm so glad he's back let's go to a game!" even though the team sucks. And they're going to suck this year. The Twins are not going to contend for anything until 2016 at the earliest, and Hunter will be gone so it's a completely pointless signing.
A bridge to 2016 you say? No. He's not good anymore. He's just not. He's turned into a terrible fielder (not his fault, he's just old) and you can find a billion links to in depth studies, more than just advanced metrics, that prove it. He hit the ball alright last year but he's been on a pretty steady downslope. Sure, it's one year so it's pretty low risk, but that $10 million a year could have gone towards another pitcher (Jason Hammel signed for that) and those at bats need to be going towards any of the billion of question mark outfielders the Twins have. Oswaldo Arcia and Aaron Hicks need as many ABs as possible so we can figure out what they are. Even Jordan Schafer may have some future value. Also.....wait......look at this 40-man roster. Look at the outfielders. There are no words. Just horrible.
Ok so Hunter won't steal too many at-bats that he shouldn't, but they still could have used that $10 million better than on a marketing stunt. The Santana and Hughes signings (hold on) showed that they were still going to spend beyond that $10 million, which was a big concern of mine at the time so maybe this isn't quite as bad as I thought. Actually, now looking at everything, as a pure baseball move it's just fine. I just hate the message, and I hate that they signed yet another washed up former Twin because he was a good guy when he was here (just not to the gays). I guess I'm pretty fed up right now, especially watching the Padres (small market) and White Sox (division rival) go all in, right after Kansas City's go all-inedness paid off with a trip to the World Series. I don't want to be patient any more. Let's just move along.
- More promising was the signing of Ervin Santana to a 4-year, $55 million deal. I don't love it as much as some others, but Santana has been a pretty solid pitcher in four of the last five seasons, and although that one bad season was a disaster it's looking like more of a fluke than anything. The $13-$14 million per year may be a bit of an overpay, but it's probably worth it to get a real major league pitcher, especially one who struck out north of 8 batters per 9 innings per last season (a stat which makes me wonder if the Twins had an aneurysm or something and missed the fact that he can actually miss bats).
Santana will be 35 by the end of the contract, which isn't ancient but is a little stomach turning, and who knows what kind of pitcher he'll be by then, but if the plan is to contend for the playoffs in 2016 he should be a key cog. That's the hope anyway. Both Santana and Hughes have some risk (hold on) so counting on them to be your front of the rotation guys is a little dicey, but it's a damn sight better than counting on Mike Pelfrey or Kevin Correia. That may not be saying much, but hey, at least they're spending on potentially quality pitching. Infinitely better than the Ricky Nolasco signing.
- The Twins also signed Phil Hughes to an extension, wiping out the last two years of his current deal and extending him three more in what is essentially a 5 year, $58 million deal. Although there's plenty of upside to the deal, since $11 million per will end up an absolute bargain if he can be the same pitcher he was last season, there are plenty of reasons to be nervous. Five years is a long time, $58 million is a ton of money for a team like the Twins, and prior to last season Hughes was a complete train wreck. I don't really understand why they felt the need to move now considering Hughes was under contract for two more seasons at a totally reasonable price. Why not let him start the year on his existing deal and then, if he looks like the stud he was last season, extend him then instead of taking $58 million worth of risk on one season of proven production?
Then again, there isn't anything in his numbers that suggests last season was a fluke. His BABIP was actually high, his FIP was almost a full run lower than his ERA, his K/BB ratio was an all-time record, and although his HR ratio probably dipped down below where it should be it should be offset by that high BABIP and his overall numbers should be around the same as last year. That kind of season is #1 pitcher territory, and based on WAR and the current rate being paid per win (note: I don't really know how this is calculated) Fangraphs estimates last season Hughes was worth around $30 million. If he pitches anywhere near that well maybe it's harder to extend him or becomes significantly more expensive. Hughes certainly cashed in on his great season, it's a matter of time to see who got fleeced. I'm hoping for Hughes.
- Another newly added Twin is J.R. Graham, a right-handed pitcher the Twins picked in the Rule 5 draft from the Atlanta Braves. Graham was a fourth round pick out of college and rose as high as a top 100 prospect according to both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus pre-2013 before arm issues derailed him. Last season he pitched in 27 games at Double-A (starting 19) and put up 5.55 ERA and 1.47 WHIP which are yuck. He was a stud at the lower levels before the injuries, so even with the ugly numbers last year he's probably worth taking the chance on. As a Rule 5 draftee Graham has to stay on the Twins Major League roster all season or be offered back to the Braves. Seeing as how Graham hasn't pitched above AA and did so poorly last year it's certainly a risk, but it worked for Ryan Pressly a couple of seasons ago. Expect to see Graham in a lot of blow out, non high leverage innings. Hopefully he does well.
- Last baseball thing I want to mention is how great it is to see San Diego just say "Fuck it" and go for it big time. They've constructed a completely new outfield of Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, and Wil Myers, acquired a new catcher in Derek Norris, and landed a young 3B in Will Middlebrooks. Considering the Padres were a historically horrible offense last year (their team total over/under in Vegas was frequently 2.5) replacing over half the lineup is not a bad idea, and they were able to do it without trading away any of their top 3 blue chip prospects (though they traded pretty much everyone else in the minors away). They also only had to ship out one of their starters, a team strength, and will go into next season with a mostly intact rotation. Two other signees, Josh Johnson and Brandon Morrow, have flashed a ton of talent but neither has had much success staying healthy - perfect signings to fill that #5 slot, really.
Of course, any time you take this kind of risk you are inviting disaster in countless ways. Kemp will be tasked with playing center field and by any metric or the eye test his body really isn't up to that any more. Myers had a really bad sophomore season and the Rays essentially totally gave up on him with questions about his work ethic. Norris is a big bat but is pretty horrendous defensively, and Middlebrooks has been underwhelming at best in his short career. I couldn't find anything bad to say about Upton.
This is all pessimism of course, since I'm a Minnesota fan, and I think these are fantastic risks for a team in need of a shot in the arm and I'd love the Twins to pursue a similar course once they think they're close to being a contender. They also now have an expendable Carlos Quentin, who can still hit the crap out of the ball when healthy - though he hasn't played more than 100 games since 2011 so who knows if he even can be healthy anymore. If he can get through the first half of the season or so healthy and hitting, expect the Padres to aggressively move him to an American League team since he's basically a born DH. It's a fun time to be a Padre fan. I hate them.
- Moving on to NCAA Hoops, uh, how good is Kentucky? My goodness they just overwhelm teams. The scary part is they're really winning with defense, because they have the most talent of anyone, they're incredibly athletic and tall (almost everyone who plays is 6-6 or bigger) and because they're so deep they can give total effort on the defensive end, knowing they won't have to conserve energy because they won't be playing heavy minutes. And everyone is buying into the concept. I'm really not interested in another Kentucky championship, but man I'm not sure how they don't end up winning.
Because they're so good defensively and so deep it's hard to see a team just jump up and beat them on a fluky night. The only two teams I see who could beat them this year are Duke and Louisville. Duke is nearly as deep and nearly as talented as Kentucky, so I could see them beating Kentucky if the Wildcats don't play their best game. Louisville is super talented and can almost match Kentucky's athleticism, and they play a style that could work against the Wildcats if they can speed them up (and we might find out on Saturday). Depressing? Yes, but I mean, watch these guys.
- Looks like the Gophers damn near dropped one to Furman tonight before rallying to win by 10. That's definitely not good, but looking around the Big Ten avoiding the home loss to the crappy opponent seems to be a key this season. I mean, Michigan lost to NJIT and Eastern Michigan, Michigan State lost to Texas Southern, Indiana lost to Eastern Washington, Northwestern lost to Central Michigan, Nebraska lost to Incarnate Word, Purdue lost to Gardner Webb and North Florida, and Rutgers lost to St. Francis and St. Peter's. These are all horrible, horrible losses. These aren't upsets, these are mega-upsets. Avoiding this loss to Furman keeps the Gophers record intact, along with Wisconsin, Iowa, Maryland, Ohio State, Illinois, and Penn State (depending on how you feel about Charlotte).
I can't really write much about tonight's game because I didn't realize the game was on ESPN3 until late in the second half, but I did manage to catch the last ten minutes or so of game time and Furman could not miss. Some of it is on the Gopher defense, yes, but the Paladins (for reals) hit a bunch of shots I'm willing to wager they don't usually knock down as well. Every so often you run into a buzzsaw, not getting chopped down is a good thing. As long as they don't come out and go down to the wire against Wilmington on Saturday you can pretty much just write this one off to a weird night - a weird night that didn't end up in a loss, a rarity in the B10 this year.
- Lastly, fantasy football is stupid.
Wednesday, December 17, 2014
Rube Roundtable, Year 3
Every year around this lull in the year, ZipsofAkron from the much smarter than mine blog From the Barn sends some Gopher related questions out to blogger types. Most years I remember to answer them. This is one of those years. My answers are below. I will post a link to his blog when he compiles all the answers from us nerds.
1) So, uh, we're down to 9 scholarship players and a Kendal Shell. Your thoughts?
1) So, uh, we're down to 9 scholarship players and a Kendal Shell. Your thoughts?
Well, it's better than 8 scholarship players and no Kendal Shell. With or without Diedhiou, they have enough non-horrible players to come up with a playable rotation, even if it means heavier than you'd like minutes for some guys. The real problem is going to come if there's foul trouble, and you know there will be foul trouble. There are going to have to be a couple new walk-ons here soon, if only to have the bodies to weather a worst case type scenario. And walk-ons are always fun in blowouts. They think they're people.
7) In the same vein, what does this program need to do to take the next step?
College basketball, in my opinion, is ruled by recruiting. A good game coach (game plan and/or in game) can help elevate a team, but the disparity in talent between the top players and the rest is insurmountable by any coach, so that's the key. Pitino has the team moving in the right direction in this arena, but the rumors of his leaving every off season to take a "better" job are only going to get louder if he continues to build the program up (or hell, as long as he doesn't burn it to the ground). In order to continue to build their talent and keep creeping up the recruit ladder they need to keep Pitino. If he is hired away, it's likely because he's had success here so they need to make a hire who can keep that going, although I'm not sure where you can find someone young and hungry enough to take this job and work that hard who is also somewhat of a known commodity based on household name recognition. So I guess the answer is to give him as many blank checks as needed so he never leaves. Pretty simple.
Coming soon: Some baseball talk. Maybe a live movie blog.
2) Last year the Gophers won the NIT. What are your expectations this year?
This has already changed three times for me. At the beginner of the year I was thinking they definitely need to make the NCAA Tournament for this season to be a success. Then, after the preseason NIT or whatever I thought this team was way too dumb to end up making the tournament and figured the season was heading for a train wreck. Now, however, Big Ten teams are dropping games left and right - at home - to terrible teams. I figure if the Big Ten is as down as it seems, and the Gophers are at least mostly taking care of business, they should be able to get to 10 conference wins and, no matter how terrible terrible terrible terrible terrible the non-conference schedule was I can't see a 10 win Big Ten team getting bounced. Thus, I believe this should be an NCAA Tournament team. I reserve the right to change this when they get their doors blown off at Purdue.
3) What do you miss most about Maverick Ahanmisi?
The angst he caused. The twitter meltdowns. The clueless threads on Gopherhole (turns out I can still find plenty of those on a myriad of other topics). By the end of his career he had turned himself into a halfway decent, albeit streaky, spot up outside shooter who deserved a chance against zones to see if he was hot. Should he ever have been allowed to dribble? No, of course not. Did he do a lot of really dumb stuff with the basketball? Yes, almost constantly. Could he play defense? Very little. Wait, what was the question again?
4) What about Gopher basketball is going to give you an ulcer this year?
Easy answer is Carlos Morris, but when you go the JuCo route a certain amount of chuckery and undisciplined ball is expected so I'll give him a pass and say Joey King, and I don't really want to say Joey King, but it's Joey King. He clearly works hard. He's got a really nice shot fake, he's a much better rebounder than he was, he's even developed himself some semblance of a post up game, a far cry from the perimeter offense only type he was when he first arrived. That's all great, but he just does some horrible things. Nobody has ever been worse in the open court, ever, and he still likes to put up a really dumb shot at least once or twice a game. He also constantly uses that shot fake to get his defender of his feet, but then doesn't do anything with that advantage (that alone is enough to give me an ulcer). Of course there's nothing he can do when he's overpowered or out-athleticked, but the mere fact that's he's basically the team's only option is ulcer-worthy as well.
5) Maryland and Rutgers are real Big Ten members. How do you feel about this from a hoopsball perspective?
I love conference expansion because I love getting a chance to see new teams and players in person, and given the traditional home non-conference schedule for this program that doesn't happen very often. I still don't understand why they can't schedule home and homes with like, Colorado or Oklahoma State, or Seton Hall or other mid-tier big conference schools, but I digress.
I like seeing new teams. I don't care about exposure or tv sets in new markets or blah blah blah, but I'm also not wrapped up in "traditional rivalries are being destroyed" or any of that stuff that always sounds like it's being yelled by an old man in a bath robe who is shaking his fist at a newspaper. New teams are fun. Maryland is fun. Rutgers exists.
6) Real talk. Are we on the up and up or is this just another foray into unmet expectations and mediocrity?
Every time one administration flops and a new coach comes in there is always plenty of blind optimism, and I'm as guilty as anyone. So far, that optimism hasn't lasted, and there's another flop and the cycle continues. I'm hoping this one is for real, because I'm hoping Richard Pitino is for real. Being mentored by Rick Pitino and Billy Donovan is about as good an education as you could ask for, and Pitino (and his staff, can't forget McHale and Kimani) are tireless workers on the recruiting trail. Their in game schemes, plays, and game plans are inventive and exciting. Mo Walker's improvement suggests they may be good at player development, which would make this staff 3-for-3 in what you need from a college coach. Monson was hamstrung by needing to rebuild a shattered program, Tubby was looking to go out in a cushy job where he could half ass it (my perception), but Pitino should be good to go. So I guess I think we're on the up and up. I'm so stupid.
College basketball, in my opinion, is ruled by recruiting. A good game coach (game plan and/or in game) can help elevate a team, but the disparity in talent between the top players and the rest is insurmountable by any coach, so that's the key. Pitino has the team moving in the right direction in this arena, but the rumors of his leaving every off season to take a "better" job are only going to get louder if he continues to build the program up (or hell, as long as he doesn't burn it to the ground). In order to continue to build their talent and keep creeping up the recruit ladder they need to keep Pitino. If he is hired away, it's likely because he's had success here so they need to make a hire who can keep that going, although I'm not sure where you can find someone young and hungry enough to take this job and work that hard who is also somewhat of a known commodity based on household name recognition. So I guess the answer is to give him as many blank checks as needed so he never leaves. Pretty simple.
Coming soon: Some baseball talk. Maybe a live movie blog.
Tuesday, December 9, 2014
Big Ten Chuckers, Power Ranking #2
With the next 2-3 weeks really nothing but meaningless games it's doubtful I'll be writing any game previews or recaps. When somebody goes rogue transfer like Martin I'll hit it and when/if Diedhiou becomes eligible that's post worthy, but there probably won't be a whole lot of Gopher specific stuff until a wrap up/preview before conference play starts. For now, I'll do more fun stuff, and what's more fun than checking in on our chuckers for Power Ranking #2. Last week's rank in parenthesis.
1. TRE DEMPS, Northwestern (1). Demps remains the master, shooting 7-27 in his last three games with a 1-7 and 1-8 mixed in. On the season he's now taking 29% of Northwestern's shots when he's in the game with a 37% hit rate on 2s and 29% on 3s. His 2-1 assist-to-turnover rate is the only thing holding him back from being one of the most perfect chuckers in history. He's fifth in the conference in missed shots, and only attempts 11 per game. That's impressive. Bonus points because he usually becomes super good towards the end of close games. It's quite a super power.
2. MIKE WILLIAMS, Rutgers (8). I had no idea who Williams was at the beginning of the year, but he's really growing on me. Just a freshman, he burst onto the scene shooting 7-29 in his first four career games, and he hasn't gotten much better, shooting just 33% on twos and 24% on threes on the season. He's taking 25% of his team's shots when he's on the floor on a team with two clear senior leaders (Myles Mack and Kadeem Jack), and he's averaging more shots per game (8.8) than points (7.3) which is pretty fantastic. From the volume shooting to the inability to make any baskets, Williams is a really strong contender. And we get three more years. [2-6 on Tuesday. Don't get shy, Mike.]
3. TERRAN PETTEWAY, Nebraska (7). It's time to talk about Petteway. Fantastic player, obviously. He's averaging 21 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists, a steal, and a block per game this year, outstanding numbers. Make no mistake though - he's a chucker. He's taking 35% of the Huskers shots when he's on the floor (which ranks 24th in the entire country and 4th among major conference schools) and hitting 47% from two and 36% from three which puts his eFG% under 50%. He's also turning the ball over nearly 4 times per game, and threw up a game where he shot 5-18 and turned it over 8 times earlier this year. So yeah, he's a fantastic player, but he's also a big time chucker. Never forget.
4. CARLOS MORRIS, Minnesota (4). Morris has an unfair advantage because I get to watch almost all his games, but he definitely belongs. A couple of really efficient games have bumped his eFG% up to 46% which is getting a little too close to respectability for my tastes (combined 13-19 shooting in his last two is no good), but his refusal to pass the ball is as strong as ever. He does average 2.0 assists per game, but that's against 2.4 turnovers and considering he's a wing on a team that ranks 9th in the country with an assist on 66% of their made baskets that's not very impressive. Plus, just watch him sometime. [5-9 Monday. Continues to be efficient. Not going to drop him much until I see it against a good team, but we could really use more chucking here.]
5. KENDALL STEPHENS, Purdue (NR). I said at the beginning of the year that Purdue was set up to have at least one guy on this list, and right now it looks like Stephens is the guy. I had Bryson Scott on here for both of my first two lists, but he just doesn't shoot enough (though a 1-6 in 12 minutes recently is nice). Stephens, however, is starting to look like a more than worthy replacement. His shot percentage is a solid 26%, and though his eFG% is higher than I'd like at 52% he's started to put up much better chucker looking numbers with a 1-9, 2-11, and 2-7 in his last three outings. Add in that 70% of his attempts are from three and somehow he's shooting an insane 19% from two this year (4-22) and I think he's the Boiler for the job. [5-11 Monday. Good shot amount in 22 minutes. Could be a high riser.]
6. KADEEM JACK, Rutgers (NR). Jack has always been a high usage player for the Scarlet Knights, and he's kept it up this year (31% shots) but he's added a new wrinkle to his game - he can't make anything. He missed the first two games of the year but has made up for it with some seriously prolific chucking including an 8-23 performance against Vandy and a ridiculous 3-15 vs. Seton Hall, leading to a 37% shooting percentage and a scoring average more than 2 points lower than last season. He's never been much for passing (his average of 1.5 assists per game this year is a career high) but his season total of 9 assists vs. 17 turnovers is worth noting. If his shot doesn't come back he could challenge for the crown. [3-9 Tuesday with 7 turnovers to boot. Something could be brewing here.]
7. BRYANT MCINTOSH, Northwestern (9). When I put McIntosh on here last time I said I figured he wouldn't last long. So far, at least, I was wrong. Since my last post (5 games) he's shot 15-48 including a 1-10 game against Georgia Tech, and I just can't ignore that kind of non-production no matter how good he is at passing - and he is, averaging 5 assists per game (against 2.5 TOs) with an assist rate ranking in the top 40 in the country. He's still taking 23% of his team's shots when he's on the floor, and as long as he keeps up that volume while being unable to actually put the ball in the basket it'll be tough to keep him off this list. There are plenty of good distributors who are terrible shooters, most of them don't heave the ball at the hoop this often. And that's why he's a chucker.
8. KAMERON CHATMAN, Michigan (NR). Another freshman who just DGAF, the most impressive thing about Chatman is how he's 6-7 and he just hates the paint. Loathes it. Treats it like my kids treat the floor when they do that thing where the floor is hot lava. I say that because I perusing the sweet site hoop-math.com, and Chatman has taken 6% of his shots at the rim this year. I will just tell you that is insanely low. For reference there is no Gopher under 10%, and no other Wolverine under 15% - it's a really low number, especially for someone who is 6-7. I also noticed that 100% of his baskets at the rim are assisted, which means he never drives, he just stands around and chucks jumpers, like when he shot 0-6 in their hilariously awesome loss to NJIT. On the season he's now at 34% on twos and 21% on threes, and if he continues to be allergic to the rim he could be one to watch. [0-2 Tuesday. [Shot amount is unfortunate, but at least he missed them both.]
9. BRANDON TAYLOR, Penn State (NR). Taylor's actually similar to Chatman in that he hates scoring in the paint too (10.5%), but he has fewer excuses. He's not a skinny freshman like Chatman, he's a 6-6, 225 lb. junior who averages 6.4 rebounds per game, so it's not like he's incapable of playing in the paint, he just doesn't want to. Now, granted, this can be a valid plan and has worked for many players in the past. It does not, however, generally work when you're shooting just 29% from three (15-51) especially when you're taking more threes than twos. Nothing new for Taylor since in his three seasons he's averaged 3.5 or more 3 attempts per game each year and failed to ever break better than 32% accuracy. I really should have had him on the list earlier.
10. JARROD UTHOFF, Iowa (NR). Uthoff likes to shoot (25% shot percentage) and he's not particularly horrible at it (40% twos, 39% threes) but his eFG is still just 48% so he qualifies, and he deserves mention on this list because of that horrendous 40% twos for a 6-9 player. I checked a handful of other teams and the only other guy who combines that kind of volume and ineptitude with that height is Kadeem Jack, number 6 on this list. Special shout out to his 2-13 game against North Carolina, though in fairness he also grabbed 11 rebounds. I don't see Uthoff sticking on this list for very long, but I wanted to recognize him while he's not hot. [6-11 Tuesday. Vs. Alcorn State. So meh.]
Notable feats in chucking around the country:
1. CAZMON HAYES, Delaware. If we are looking for the best chucker in the nation, we might not have to look any further. Just look at this line: 15.4ppg, 29% field goal percentage, 0.7 assists per game. Glorious. He has a 3-18 and a 4-21 shooting on the year. Also a 6-21. His best shooting game he went 4-9 and I assume he must have been in foul trouble to only get off 9 shots. He has five assists the entire season. He's shooting 9 threes per game despite hitting just 29%. Even better, last year he only averaged 10 minutes and two shots per game. Get yours, Caz, get yours.
2. KYLE WILTJER, Gonzaga. Wiltjer transferred from Kentucky in order to get out under the shackles of a tightly called and tightly run Calipari offense, and he's certainly had free reign to chuck away since becoming a Zag (35% shot percentage). Never was that more evident than against Georgia when he put up 26 shots. It's really hard to shoot 26 times in one game, especially when your team shoots 52. Some quick math tells me that's half the team's attempts, which I don't think is how most offenses are supposed to be run. He did make 14 which is not chucker like, but when you take half your team's shots and put up the second most attempts of any player in a game this year (behind DJ Newbill who took 33 in a 2OT game) it's worth noting.
3. DAMON LYNN, NJIT. This is a pretty good one, because Lynn had a god awful chucker level game against Marquette not long after the last Chucker Update, shooting 4-20 with five turnovers in a game the Highlanders lost by just five, a game they might have won if Lynn makes a few more shots. Then came the big upset win over Michigan which was pretty awesome, and Lynn is the hero, hitting 7-16 (6-10 on threes) and coming up huge, nailing that huge, soul crushing, monster three pointer with about two minutes left when Michigan looked like they might be about to retake the game. Chucker redemption at its finest.
4. MARCELLUS BARKSDALE, IUPUI. Though he did put up back-to-back performances worthy of a call out (4-14 and 2-11 shooting), he's mainly just here because I saw his name pop up in my top secret chucker formula and actually said "holy shit" out loud. What a sweet name. Marcellus Wallace and Avon Barksdale had a baby, and he loves throwing the ball in the basic direction of the hoop. Also, I love Pulp Fiction (duh) and I just finished season 4 of The Wire so I'm still in that "holy crap you guys The Wire is so good I can't believe I never watched it" mode. Seriously though, holy crap you guys The Wire is so good I can't believe I never watched it.
5. PHIL FORTE, Oklahoma State. Phil has carried on the Forte tradition of being an excellent college basketball player started by Joe and Jason and probably Matt. He's not here because he's a terrible shooter, because he's generally pretty good. He is, however, a 3-point bomber with two thirds of his shots coming from behind the arc at a clip of over 8 attempts per game. He's around a 40% shooter from there in his career so he's a pretty valuable weapon. However with a weapon like that, occasionally things can go drastically wrong. Forte fell apart against South Carolina on Saturday, going 1-14 from the field and 1-10 from three as the Cowboys got blasted 75-49. It was pretty much disaster all around as the team shot sub 25% for the game. It is hard to win that way.
1. TRE DEMPS, Northwestern (1). Demps remains the master, shooting 7-27 in his last three games with a 1-7 and 1-8 mixed in. On the season he's now taking 29% of Northwestern's shots when he's in the game with a 37% hit rate on 2s and 29% on 3s. His 2-1 assist-to-turnover rate is the only thing holding him back from being one of the most perfect chuckers in history. He's fifth in the conference in missed shots, and only attempts 11 per game. That's impressive. Bonus points because he usually becomes super good towards the end of close games. It's quite a super power.
2. MIKE WILLIAMS, Rutgers (8). I had no idea who Williams was at the beginning of the year, but he's really growing on me. Just a freshman, he burst onto the scene shooting 7-29 in his first four career games, and he hasn't gotten much better, shooting just 33% on twos and 24% on threes on the season. He's taking 25% of his team's shots when he's on the floor on a team with two clear senior leaders (Myles Mack and Kadeem Jack), and he's averaging more shots per game (8.8) than points (7.3) which is pretty fantastic. From the volume shooting to the inability to make any baskets, Williams is a really strong contender. And we get three more years. [2-6 on Tuesday. Don't get shy, Mike.]
3. TERRAN PETTEWAY, Nebraska (7). It's time to talk about Petteway. Fantastic player, obviously. He's averaging 21 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists, a steal, and a block per game this year, outstanding numbers. Make no mistake though - he's a chucker. He's taking 35% of the Huskers shots when he's on the floor (which ranks 24th in the entire country and 4th among major conference schools) and hitting 47% from two and 36% from three which puts his eFG% under 50%. He's also turning the ball over nearly 4 times per game, and threw up a game where he shot 5-18 and turned it over 8 times earlier this year. So yeah, he's a fantastic player, but he's also a big time chucker. Never forget.
4. CARLOS MORRIS, Minnesota (4). Morris has an unfair advantage because I get to watch almost all his games, but he definitely belongs. A couple of really efficient games have bumped his eFG% up to 46% which is getting a little too close to respectability for my tastes (combined 13-19 shooting in his last two is no good), but his refusal to pass the ball is as strong as ever. He does average 2.0 assists per game, but that's against 2.4 turnovers and considering he's a wing on a team that ranks 9th in the country with an assist on 66% of their made baskets that's not very impressive. Plus, just watch him sometime. [5-9 Monday. Continues to be efficient. Not going to drop him much until I see it against a good team, but we could really use more chucking here.]
5. KENDALL STEPHENS, Purdue (NR). I said at the beginning of the year that Purdue was set up to have at least one guy on this list, and right now it looks like Stephens is the guy. I had Bryson Scott on here for both of my first two lists, but he just doesn't shoot enough (though a 1-6 in 12 minutes recently is nice). Stephens, however, is starting to look like a more than worthy replacement. His shot percentage is a solid 26%, and though his eFG% is higher than I'd like at 52% he's started to put up much better chucker looking numbers with a 1-9, 2-11, and 2-7 in his last three outings. Add in that 70% of his attempts are from three and somehow he's shooting an insane 19% from two this year (4-22) and I think he's the Boiler for the job. [5-11 Monday. Good shot amount in 22 minutes. Could be a high riser.]
6. KADEEM JACK, Rutgers (NR). Jack has always been a high usage player for the Scarlet Knights, and he's kept it up this year (31% shots) but he's added a new wrinkle to his game - he can't make anything. He missed the first two games of the year but has made up for it with some seriously prolific chucking including an 8-23 performance against Vandy and a ridiculous 3-15 vs. Seton Hall, leading to a 37% shooting percentage and a scoring average more than 2 points lower than last season. He's never been much for passing (his average of 1.5 assists per game this year is a career high) but his season total of 9 assists vs. 17 turnovers is worth noting. If his shot doesn't come back he could challenge for the crown. [3-9 Tuesday with 7 turnovers to boot. Something could be brewing here.]
7. BRYANT MCINTOSH, Northwestern (9). When I put McIntosh on here last time I said I figured he wouldn't last long. So far, at least, I was wrong. Since my last post (5 games) he's shot 15-48 including a 1-10 game against Georgia Tech, and I just can't ignore that kind of non-production no matter how good he is at passing - and he is, averaging 5 assists per game (against 2.5 TOs) with an assist rate ranking in the top 40 in the country. He's still taking 23% of his team's shots when he's on the floor, and as long as he keeps up that volume while being unable to actually put the ball in the basket it'll be tough to keep him off this list. There are plenty of good distributors who are terrible shooters, most of them don't heave the ball at the hoop this often. And that's why he's a chucker.
8. KAMERON CHATMAN, Michigan (NR). Another freshman who just DGAF, the most impressive thing about Chatman is how he's 6-7 and he just hates the paint. Loathes it. Treats it like my kids treat the floor when they do that thing where the floor is hot lava. I say that because I perusing the sweet site hoop-math.com, and Chatman has taken 6% of his shots at the rim this year. I will just tell you that is insanely low. For reference there is no Gopher under 10%, and no other Wolverine under 15% - it's a really low number, especially for someone who is 6-7. I also noticed that 100% of his baskets at the rim are assisted, which means he never drives, he just stands around and chucks jumpers, like when he shot 0-6 in their hilariously awesome loss to NJIT. On the season he's now at 34% on twos and 21% on threes, and if he continues to be allergic to the rim he could be one to watch. [0-2 Tuesday. [Shot amount is unfortunate, but at least he missed them both.]
9. BRANDON TAYLOR, Penn State (NR). Taylor's actually similar to Chatman in that he hates scoring in the paint too (10.5%), but he has fewer excuses. He's not a skinny freshman like Chatman, he's a 6-6, 225 lb. junior who averages 6.4 rebounds per game, so it's not like he's incapable of playing in the paint, he just doesn't want to. Now, granted, this can be a valid plan and has worked for many players in the past. It does not, however, generally work when you're shooting just 29% from three (15-51) especially when you're taking more threes than twos. Nothing new for Taylor since in his three seasons he's averaged 3.5 or more 3 attempts per game each year and failed to ever break better than 32% accuracy. I really should have had him on the list earlier.
10. JARROD UTHOFF, Iowa (NR). Uthoff likes to shoot (25% shot percentage) and he's not particularly horrible at it (40% twos, 39% threes) but his eFG is still just 48% so he qualifies, and he deserves mention on this list because of that horrendous 40% twos for a 6-9 player. I checked a handful of other teams and the only other guy who combines that kind of volume and ineptitude with that height is Kadeem Jack, number 6 on this list. Special shout out to his 2-13 game against North Carolina, though in fairness he also grabbed 11 rebounds. I don't see Uthoff sticking on this list for very long, but I wanted to recognize him while he's not hot. [6-11 Tuesday. Vs. Alcorn State. So meh.]
Notable feats in chucking around the country:
1. CAZMON HAYES, Delaware. If we are looking for the best chucker in the nation, we might not have to look any further. Just look at this line: 15.4ppg, 29% field goal percentage, 0.7 assists per game. Glorious. He has a 3-18 and a 4-21 shooting on the year. Also a 6-21. His best shooting game he went 4-9 and I assume he must have been in foul trouble to only get off 9 shots. He has five assists the entire season. He's shooting 9 threes per game despite hitting just 29%. Even better, last year he only averaged 10 minutes and two shots per game. Get yours, Caz, get yours.
2. KYLE WILTJER, Gonzaga. Wiltjer transferred from Kentucky in order to get out under the shackles of a tightly called and tightly run Calipari offense, and he's certainly had free reign to chuck away since becoming a Zag (35% shot percentage). Never was that more evident than against Georgia when he put up 26 shots. It's really hard to shoot 26 times in one game, especially when your team shoots 52. Some quick math tells me that's half the team's attempts, which I don't think is how most offenses are supposed to be run. He did make 14 which is not chucker like, but when you take half your team's shots and put up the second most attempts of any player in a game this year (behind DJ Newbill who took 33 in a 2OT game) it's worth noting.
3. DAMON LYNN, NJIT. This is a pretty good one, because Lynn had a god awful chucker level game against Marquette not long after the last Chucker Update, shooting 4-20 with five turnovers in a game the Highlanders lost by just five, a game they might have won if Lynn makes a few more shots. Then came the big upset win over Michigan which was pretty awesome, and Lynn is the hero, hitting 7-16 (6-10 on threes) and coming up huge, nailing that huge, soul crushing, monster three pointer with about two minutes left when Michigan looked like they might be about to retake the game. Chucker redemption at its finest.
4. MARCELLUS BARKSDALE, IUPUI. Though he did put up back-to-back performances worthy of a call out (4-14 and 2-11 shooting), he's mainly just here because I saw his name pop up in my top secret chucker formula and actually said "holy shit" out loud. What a sweet name. Marcellus Wallace and Avon Barksdale had a baby, and he loves throwing the ball in the basic direction of the hoop. Also, I love Pulp Fiction (duh) and I just finished season 4 of The Wire so I'm still in that "holy crap you guys The Wire is so good I can't believe I never watched it" mode. Seriously though, holy crap you guys The Wire is so good I can't believe I never watched it.
5. PHIL FORTE, Oklahoma State. Phil has carried on the Forte tradition of being an excellent college basketball player started by Joe and Jason and probably Matt. He's not here because he's a terrible shooter, because he's generally pretty good. He is, however, a 3-point bomber with two thirds of his shots coming from behind the arc at a clip of over 8 attempts per game. He's around a 40% shooter from there in his career so he's a pretty valuable weapon. However with a weapon like that, occasionally things can go drastically wrong. Forte fell apart against South Carolina on Saturday, going 1-14 from the field and 1-10 from three as the Cowboys got blasted 75-49. It was pretty much disaster all around as the team shot sub 25% for the game. It is hard to win that way.
Thursday, November 6, 2014
Big Ten Basketball Preview: #1 Wisconsin Badgers
I truly hate to say this, you know I do, but the Badgers are by far the best team in the conference and it isn't particularly close. I just wrote about how Ohio State has all that crazy talent, but the Badgers were an excellent team last year and have basically the entire squad back. This is usually where I might bash them for not having that much talent on paper and stuff, but at this point that's just stupid. Bo Ryan might never win the recruiting awards or whatever, but he knows how to get players to run his boring system and he knows how to take guys who seem like stiffs for two years suddenly blossom when he needs them to. I can no longer deny his wizardry or his ugly grinch face, but I sure don't have to like it.
Frank Kaminsky is the best example this year, following in the footsteps of all the other ugly white stiffs and becoming a star. Two years ago Kaminsky averaged just 10 minutes per game, shot 44% from the floor, and averaged just 4.2 points and 1.8 rebounds per game. Then Berggren, Evans, and Bruesewitz graduated, and he suddenly averaged 13.9 points and 6.3 rebounds per game and won Big Ten honors. It's some kind of horrible circle of life. Well he's back, and despite being the best player on the team he's probably third in talent level, because Nigel Hayes (conference sixth man of the year as a freshman last season) and Sam Dekker are poised to breakout.
We said the same thing about Dekker last year, and although his improvement wasn't exactly a breakout, it was a step in the right direction (from 9.6 to 12.4 points per game and from 3.4 to 6.1 rebounds). It did come with a minute increase though, from 22 to 29 per game, and his advanced stats were basically stagnant from last season, other than rebounding. Wisconsin's only major loss is Ben Brust, and although they have the pieces to pick up his minutes Dekker may see more time with the ball - this can only help. Hayes is one of my favorites in the conference already, if I could have a favorite who played for Wisconsin, which I cannot. He doesn't fit the Badger model at all since he's an athletic beast, but he's smart and fundamentally sound so he works. He's also a defensive terror, which they like. He doesn't have the three-point shot Sconnie loves, but he does have a smooth jumper out to the perimeter so it wouldn't surprise me if he develops it eventually, maybe this year. He's going to be First Team All-Big Ten eventually.
Like I said, Brust is gone, but Josh Gasser (8.8ppg/1.9apg), Traevon Jackson (10.7/4.0), and Bronson Koenig (3.5/1.1) are all back so there's no shortage of perimeter players. Jackson has turned himself into an awfully good point guard by learning to score while becoming a better distributor at the same time, and Gasser was basically back to the same player he was three years ago prior to his knee injury, so he'll look to take another step forward and take on some of Brust's scoring from last season.
Pretty solid lineup: Jackson, Gasser, Dekker, Hayes, and Kaminsky. This is going to suck.
OTHER PREVIEWS:
#2 OHIO STATE BUCKEYES
#3 NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS
#4 MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS
#5 ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI
#6 MICHIGAN
#7 MICHIGAN STATE
#8 IOWA HAWKEYES
#9 MARYLAND TERRAPINS
#10 INDIANA HOOSIERS
#11 PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS
#12 NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS
#13 PURDUE BOILERMAKERS
#14 RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS
Frank Kaminsky is the best example this year, following in the footsteps of all the other ugly white stiffs and becoming a star. Two years ago Kaminsky averaged just 10 minutes per game, shot 44% from the floor, and averaged just 4.2 points and 1.8 rebounds per game. Then Berggren, Evans, and Bruesewitz graduated, and he suddenly averaged 13.9 points and 6.3 rebounds per game and won Big Ten honors. It's some kind of horrible circle of life. Well he's back, and despite being the best player on the team he's probably third in talent level, because Nigel Hayes (conference sixth man of the year as a freshman last season) and Sam Dekker are poised to breakout.
We said the same thing about Dekker last year, and although his improvement wasn't exactly a breakout, it was a step in the right direction (from 9.6 to 12.4 points per game and from 3.4 to 6.1 rebounds). It did come with a minute increase though, from 22 to 29 per game, and his advanced stats were basically stagnant from last season, other than rebounding. Wisconsin's only major loss is Ben Brust, and although they have the pieces to pick up his minutes Dekker may see more time with the ball - this can only help. Hayes is one of my favorites in the conference already, if I could have a favorite who played for Wisconsin, which I cannot. He doesn't fit the Badger model at all since he's an athletic beast, but he's smart and fundamentally sound so he works. He's also a defensive terror, which they like. He doesn't have the three-point shot Sconnie loves, but he does have a smooth jumper out to the perimeter so it wouldn't surprise me if he develops it eventually, maybe this year. He's going to be First Team All-Big Ten eventually.
Like I said, Brust is gone, but Josh Gasser (8.8ppg/1.9apg), Traevon Jackson (10.7/4.0), and Bronson Koenig (3.5/1.1) are all back so there's no shortage of perimeter players. Jackson has turned himself into an awfully good point guard by learning to score while becoming a better distributor at the same time, and Gasser was basically back to the same player he was three years ago prior to his knee injury, so he'll look to take another step forward and take on some of Brust's scoring from last season.
Pretty solid lineup: Jackson, Gasser, Dekker, Hayes, and Kaminsky. This is going to suck.
OTHER PREVIEWS:
#2 OHIO STATE BUCKEYES
#3 NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS
#4 MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS
#5 ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI
#6 MICHIGAN
#7 MICHIGAN STATE
#8 IOWA HAWKEYES
#9 MARYLAND TERRAPINS
#10 INDIANA HOOSIERS
#11 PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS
#12 NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS
#13 PURDUE BOILERMAKERS
#14 RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS
Big Ten Basketball Preview: #2 Ohio State Buckeyes
In typical Thad Matta fashion the Buckeyes lose a ton from last year's team. The three top scorers from last year are gone in LaQuinton Ross (15.2 ppg, also led the team in rebounding), Lenzelle Smith (11.0ppg, also led in 3-pointers), and annoying yet admittedly valuable Aaron Craft (9.8 ppg, also led in assists and steals). I mean, that's a team that's been gutted. Unfortunately, in true Thad Matta fashion, Ohio State is going to be loaded again anyway. The #1 ranked recruiting class in the conference this year (#8 nationally) will join the #2 class last year (on a per player, basis) along with the probably top available transfer who is immediately eligible and the Buckeyes will keep rolling. Great.
The one guy who could be fun to watch is Marc Loving, who is going to end up near the top of my B10 Chucker Power Ratings if I actually end up doing that which I plan on but I'm pretty lazy. Loving, a 6-7 wing who ranked as the 62nd best recruit in 2013 averaged about 5 points per game last season in 11 minutes per game. More importantly, he took 23% of the Buckeyes' shots when he was on the floor last season while shooting 37% from the floor including just 26% from three. I don't want to get too excited here since there is so much other talent here that could end up screwing this up, but those numbers are fantastic indicators when it comes to Chucker potential, which we all know is the second most entertaining thing that can happen in basketball behind Circus Ball. The departure of LaQuinton Ross, Lenzelle Smith, and Aaron Craft opens up 426 shots from lasts season. I think Loving has real potential to reach 30% of the team's shots when he's on the court, a number reached only by Ross and Terran Petteway last season, though more efficiently. This has a chance to be a truly special season.
Of course there are plenty of people who will try to get in the way of that and help the Buckeyes win games more efficiently. There are the returning contributors: center Amir Williams (8pts/6rebs/2blks per) who is kind of a stiff offensively but is a defensive force, wing Sam Thompson (8pts/3rebs) who is crazy athletic but is kind of Rodney Williams-ish in that he's still waiting to put all that talent together, and point guard Shannon Scott (8pts/3.5asts/2stls) who was overshadowed by Craft but might actually have been a better defensively. It wouldn't surprise me if any of these guys ended up leading the Buckeyes in scoring since they all have the talent and the opportunity is there. If I'm guessing I'd put Scott the most likely to break out and Williams the least, but nothing would surprise me.
Then there's the freshman: Kameron Williams (#58 overall/#13 shooting guard in 2013), Jae'Sean Tate (#28/#8 small forward in '14), Keita Bates-Diop (#22/#6 small forward), and especially De'Angelo Russell (#13/#1 shooting guard). I mean, I agree that's an annoying amount of punctuation in the middle of those names, but that is a damn talented group being added to an already talented group. Russell could be a one and done type of talent, and with Diop and Loving both at 6-7 they'll have a ton of positional flexibility. If the freshman come together quickly enough and the returnees are improved that's one hell of a top 8, and considering Thad Matta generally goes only six or seven deep this team is plenty talented.
Oh, right, and in case you forgot they also signed transfer Anthony Lee from Temple who will be immediately eligible thanks to that graduate transfer rule that is well intentioned but is really just taken advantage of as a loophole for players who outperform initial expectations to jump to better schools. Lee is a 6-9 power forward who averaged 14 points and 9 rebounds for the Owls last season and was pretty much regarded as the top available transfer on the market this offseason after putting up eleven double-doubles last year. So the Buckeyes second five will probably be Williams (#58 freshman - redshirt), Tate (#28 freshman), Diop (#22 freshman), Loving (sophomore, #62 last year), and Trey McDonald (senior center). That's probably a top 5 Big 10 team right there. These guys just don't stop.
Oh, and they already have three Top 100 guys signed for next season. Good stuff.
OTHER PREVIEWS:
#3 NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS
#4 MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS
#5 ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI
#6 MICHIGAN
#7 MICHIGAN STATE
#8 IOWA HAWKEYES
#9 MARYLAND TERRAPINS
#10 INDIANA HOOSIERS
#11 PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS
#12 NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS
#13 PURDUE BOILERMAKERS
#14 RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS
The one guy who could be fun to watch is Marc Loving, who is going to end up near the top of my B10 Chucker Power Ratings if I actually end up doing that which I plan on but I'm pretty lazy. Loving, a 6-7 wing who ranked as the 62nd best recruit in 2013 averaged about 5 points per game last season in 11 minutes per game. More importantly, he took 23% of the Buckeyes' shots when he was on the floor last season while shooting 37% from the floor including just 26% from three. I don't want to get too excited here since there is so much other talent here that could end up screwing this up, but those numbers are fantastic indicators when it comes to Chucker potential, which we all know is the second most entertaining thing that can happen in basketball behind Circus Ball. The departure of LaQuinton Ross, Lenzelle Smith, and Aaron Craft opens up 426 shots from lasts season. I think Loving has real potential to reach 30% of the team's shots when he's on the court, a number reached only by Ross and Terran Petteway last season, though more efficiently. This has a chance to be a truly special season.
Of course there are plenty of people who will try to get in the way of that and help the Buckeyes win games more efficiently. There are the returning contributors: center Amir Williams (8pts/6rebs/2blks per) who is kind of a stiff offensively but is a defensive force, wing Sam Thompson (8pts/3rebs) who is crazy athletic but is kind of Rodney Williams-ish in that he's still waiting to put all that talent together, and point guard Shannon Scott (8pts/3.5asts/2stls) who was overshadowed by Craft but might actually have been a better defensively. It wouldn't surprise me if any of these guys ended up leading the Buckeyes in scoring since they all have the talent and the opportunity is there. If I'm guessing I'd put Scott the most likely to break out and Williams the least, but nothing would surprise me.
Then there's the freshman: Kameron Williams (#58 overall/#13 shooting guard in 2013), Jae'Sean Tate (#28/#8 small forward in '14), Keita Bates-Diop (#22/#6 small forward), and especially De'Angelo Russell (#13/#1 shooting guard). I mean, I agree that's an annoying amount of punctuation in the middle of those names, but that is a damn talented group being added to an already talented group. Russell could be a one and done type of talent, and with Diop and Loving both at 6-7 they'll have a ton of positional flexibility. If the freshman come together quickly enough and the returnees are improved that's one hell of a top 8, and considering Thad Matta generally goes only six or seven deep this team is plenty talented.
Oh, right, and in case you forgot they also signed transfer Anthony Lee from Temple who will be immediately eligible thanks to that graduate transfer rule that is well intentioned but is really just taken advantage of as a loophole for players who outperform initial expectations to jump to better schools. Lee is a 6-9 power forward who averaged 14 points and 9 rebounds for the Owls last season and was pretty much regarded as the top available transfer on the market this offseason after putting up eleven double-doubles last year. So the Buckeyes second five will probably be Williams (#58 freshman - redshirt), Tate (#28 freshman), Diop (#22 freshman), Loving (sophomore, #62 last year), and Trey McDonald (senior center). That's probably a top 5 Big 10 team right there. These guys just don't stop.
Oh, and they already have three Top 100 guys signed for next season. Good stuff.
OTHER PREVIEWS:
#3 NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS
#4 MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS
#5 ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI
#6 MICHIGAN
#7 MICHIGAN STATE
#8 IOWA HAWKEYES
#9 MARYLAND TERRAPINS
#10 INDIANA HOOSIERS
#11 PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS
#12 NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS
#13 PURDUE BOILERMAKERS
#14 RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS
Wednesday, November 5, 2014
Big Ten Basketball Preview: #3 Nebraska Cornhuskers
I thought this was going to feel weird and yep, it sure does. Nebraska, third in the Big 10. Wow, crazy. At the same time it makes sense though. The Huskers finished fourth in the conference last season and return nearly everybody from that team. They were 11-7 in conference play and beat Ohio State and Michigan State at home. I mean this is serious, people. Tim Miles is obviously some kind of wizard, and it doesn't look like it's stopping any time soon because he's already inked two ESPN Top 100 dudes for 2015 (Ed Morrow, #62, and Glynn Watson, #66). Seriously what a jerk.
The main reason Nebraska is going to be good this year is the return of Terran Petteway, one of only two All-Big Ten first teamers back this season, and his 18.1 points per game. I love this guy's game. At 6-6 he's the perfect size and has the perfect athleticism and ball handling skills to create his own shot whenever he wants, he can rebound (4.8 per game) and distribute a little bit (1.6 assists per game, but assist rate that was second on the team), and he has a perimeter game. Of course, he only shot 33% from three which is acceptable but not great when you're taking nearly five per game on average. If he's figured out the three-pointer this team suddenly has Sweet 16 potential, and sleeper ability to go further. Not joking.
Another guy who could really help out the team by hitting more accurately from deep is Nebraska's other wing Shavon Shields, who hit less than 32% last season. He's got a nice all around game that compliments Petteway (12.8 ppg/5.8 rpg/1.6apg), and the two of them give Nebraska a potential 1-2 punch that's up there with anyone else in the conference, even if neither of them are dead-eye from deep. With Ray Gallegos, who you may remember from when he torched the Gophers two years ago for 30 points and 6 made three-pointers, and his 54 made 3s gone from the team this year somebody needs to give the Huskers a boost from outside, and it's likely Petteway or Shields.
Of course, things aren't all that desperate because Walter Pitchford is back at power forward and he hit at a 41% clip last season. He's not some dandy either, with about a 50/50 two-pointer/three-pointer split and a defensive rebound rate that's up there as one of the top in the conference. That high three-point conversion and a 54% 2-point percentage makes him one of the most efficient players in the B10. The Huskers did get hit by a bit of blow when returning senior PF Leslee Smith went down for the year with a knee tear. He's not much for scoring but he supplied rebounding and defense and they'll have to find a way to replace that production. Senior David Rivers and incoming freshman Jacob Hammond will have to come up big. There's also some grad transfer guy from Georgetown who was terrible there so who knows.
The main question for the Huskers is really at PG, where Tai Webster didn't really live up to expectations last season (4 pts/2 assists per game in 23 minutes). The only other PGs on the roster are undersized Benny Parker (5-9) who is better served as a mini offensive energy explosion off the bench (think Microwave) and freshman Tarin Smith who may not be ready and is just 165 lbs. at 6-2 which won't really cut it right away in the Big Ten. Webster is from New Zealand and I read somewhere last season that somebody said if he had been in the US he'd be a top 50 recruit, but that certainly didn't play out last season. I know I already said Petteway could elevate this team another level, but Webster is probably the most important player for Nebraska this year. Watson should be a stud PG next season and Rivers and G-Town guy are the only seniors, but Petteway could bolt to the NBA so it'd be good for them to make a run this year.
Look I don't know. Even after writing all that it still seems weird to have Nebraska predicted to finish in third place in the conference, but after reading all that it completely makes sense. They have a great coach, a program on the rise, a ton of experience back, and one of the top players in the conference returning. Honestly if it wasn't Nebraska they could even go one place higher, but I'm just not ready to do it yet. I just can't. Hell of a turnaround by Miles though. Gonna suck for them when Pitino and the Gophers dominate the conference every year eventually when that happens. When not if.
OTHER PREVIEWS:
#4 MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS
#5 ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI
#6 MICHIGAN
#7 MICHIGAN STATE
#8 IOWA HAWKEYES
#9 MARYLAND TERRAPINS
#10 INDIANA HOOSIERS
#11 PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS
#12 NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS
#13 PURDUE BOILERMAKERS
#14 RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS
The main reason Nebraska is going to be good this year is the return of Terran Petteway, one of only two All-Big Ten first teamers back this season, and his 18.1 points per game. I love this guy's game. At 6-6 he's the perfect size and has the perfect athleticism and ball handling skills to create his own shot whenever he wants, he can rebound (4.8 per game) and distribute a little bit (1.6 assists per game, but assist rate that was second on the team), and he has a perimeter game. Of course, he only shot 33% from three which is acceptable but not great when you're taking nearly five per game on average. If he's figured out the three-pointer this team suddenly has Sweet 16 potential, and sleeper ability to go further. Not joking.
Another guy who could really help out the team by hitting more accurately from deep is Nebraska's other wing Shavon Shields, who hit less than 32% last season. He's got a nice all around game that compliments Petteway (12.8 ppg/5.8 rpg/1.6apg), and the two of them give Nebraska a potential 1-2 punch that's up there with anyone else in the conference, even if neither of them are dead-eye from deep. With Ray Gallegos, who you may remember from when he torched the Gophers two years ago for 30 points and 6 made three-pointers, and his 54 made 3s gone from the team this year somebody needs to give the Huskers a boost from outside, and it's likely Petteway or Shields.
Of course, things aren't all that desperate because Walter Pitchford is back at power forward and he hit at a 41% clip last season. He's not some dandy either, with about a 50/50 two-pointer/three-pointer split and a defensive rebound rate that's up there as one of the top in the conference. That high three-point conversion and a 54% 2-point percentage makes him one of the most efficient players in the B10. The Huskers did get hit by a bit of blow when returning senior PF Leslee Smith went down for the year with a knee tear. He's not much for scoring but he supplied rebounding and defense and they'll have to find a way to replace that production. Senior David Rivers and incoming freshman Jacob Hammond will have to come up big. There's also some grad transfer guy from Georgetown who was terrible there so who knows.
The main question for the Huskers is really at PG, where Tai Webster didn't really live up to expectations last season (4 pts/2 assists per game in 23 minutes). The only other PGs on the roster are undersized Benny Parker (5-9) who is better served as a mini offensive energy explosion off the bench (think Microwave) and freshman Tarin Smith who may not be ready and is just 165 lbs. at 6-2 which won't really cut it right away in the Big Ten. Webster is from New Zealand and I read somewhere last season that somebody said if he had been in the US he'd be a top 50 recruit, but that certainly didn't play out last season. I know I already said Petteway could elevate this team another level, but Webster is probably the most important player for Nebraska this year. Watson should be a stud PG next season and Rivers and G-Town guy are the only seniors, but Petteway could bolt to the NBA so it'd be good for them to make a run this year.
Look I don't know. Even after writing all that it still seems weird to have Nebraska predicted to finish in third place in the conference, but after reading all that it completely makes sense. They have a great coach, a program on the rise, a ton of experience back, and one of the top players in the conference returning. Honestly if it wasn't Nebraska they could even go one place higher, but I'm just not ready to do it yet. I just can't. Hell of a turnaround by Miles though. Gonna suck for them when Pitino and the Gophers dominate the conference every year eventually when that happens. When not if.
OTHER PREVIEWS:
#4 MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS
#5 ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI
#6 MICHIGAN
#7 MICHIGAN STATE
#8 IOWA HAWKEYES
#9 MARYLAND TERRAPINS
#10 INDIANA HOOSIERS
#11 PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS
#12 NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS
#13 PURDUE BOILERMAKERS
#14 RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS
Monday, November 3, 2014
Big Ten Basketball Preview: #4 Minnesota Golden Gophers
Hell I don't know. This feels both overly optimistic and totally right, so it's probably viciously wrong but I'm going with it. Every team I have ranked below the Gophers either has serious questions or serious flaws, and it's not like the Gophers are perfect or anything, but they're more settled than almost every team in the conference, aren't they? AREN'T THEY? They have 64% of their minutes back from last year, which I'm guessing without doing the math is fourth behind Wisconsin, Nebraska, and Penn State. They have their starting back court back, which can only be said by them Iowa, and kind of Northwestern and kind of Nebraska. They also have forwards and centers and stuff back. I hate being optimistic, but I'm optimistic.
The back court with Dre Hollins and DeAndre Mathieu might be the best in the conference. We all know Dre was a bit off last year after the ankle injury as he pretty much turned into a jump shooter, taking just 17% of his shots at the rim last year, which also dragged his field goal percentage down to a career low 38%. In fact, Hollins didn't make over 50% of his shots in any one of the team's last 7 games, and actually he shot just 24% from the floor during the team's NIT run. Obviously his health and return to form is going to be the major key to the Gophers' season. We know we don't have to worry about Mathieu, who is completely awesome and unstoppable in every way. If he looks for and improves his outside shot he's going to be an absolute star. I love him so much. Freshman Nate Mason sounds like a really fun player and should be able to fill in at either guard spot.
The paint is mostly set too, with the two headed monster of Elliott Eliason and Mo Walker at center. If the Gophers can get first half of season Elliott and second half of season Walker that's going to be one hell of a tandem. That out of nowhere five game run where Mo averaged 14 and 6 was pretty much the most fun thing about last year (besides Honey Gopher, of course) and the fact that it didn't come against the patsies but in the heart of the Big Ten schedule tells me he's for real. Hopefully Eliason's late season swoon isn't, or the Gophers will need more from freshman Bakary Konate than they're likely planning on, although early reports on him are positive.
Forward is where the questions lie with Minnesota, though there's plenty of bodies it's more how they'll fit. In an ideal world newcomers Carlos Morris and Josh Martin would be able to step in and start with Joey King paying his "offense off the bench" sixth man role and Konate, Charles Buggs, and Daquein McNeil, who will also add minutes at the 2, backing them up with Gaston Diedhiou hopefully getting himself eligible for the second semester. I think it's more likely King starts the season as the starting power forward which I don't love as he's a tweener between a 3 and 4 so it's not a perfect fit wherever you put him. He did clearly work last year to improve his power forward type of skills and you could see the positive results by season's end, so hopefully he's been doing more work. And getting like, more faster and jumpy and stuff.
Yep, Gophers still have plenty of questions, but they also have more answers than an awful lot of teams in the Big Ten. It feels very strange writing something this positive, and even though I believe it I also don't believe the Gophers could possibly finish 4th in the conference and have an NCAA bid sewed up prior to the B10 Tournament. Things never go that well for Minnesota teams, so I'm expected some kind of a major injury either around game 4, or one of the first few Big Ten games after a really good pre-conference start. It's bound to happen. It's science.
OTHER PREVIEWS:
#5 ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI
#6 MICHIGAN
#7 MICHIGAN STATE
#8 IOWA HAWKEYES
#9 MARYLAND TERRAPINS
#10 INDIANA HOOSIERS
#11 PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS
#12 NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS
#13 PURDUE BOILERMAKERS
#14 RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS
The back court with Dre Hollins and DeAndre Mathieu might be the best in the conference. We all know Dre was a bit off last year after the ankle injury as he pretty much turned into a jump shooter, taking just 17% of his shots at the rim last year, which also dragged his field goal percentage down to a career low 38%. In fact, Hollins didn't make over 50% of his shots in any one of the team's last 7 games, and actually he shot just 24% from the floor during the team's NIT run. Obviously his health and return to form is going to be the major key to the Gophers' season. We know we don't have to worry about Mathieu, who is completely awesome and unstoppable in every way. If he looks for and improves his outside shot he's going to be an absolute star. I love him so much. Freshman Nate Mason sounds like a really fun player and should be able to fill in at either guard spot.
The paint is mostly set too, with the two headed monster of Elliott Eliason and Mo Walker at center. If the Gophers can get first half of season Elliott and second half of season Walker that's going to be one hell of a tandem. That out of nowhere five game run where Mo averaged 14 and 6 was pretty much the most fun thing about last year (besides Honey Gopher, of course) and the fact that it didn't come against the patsies but in the heart of the Big Ten schedule tells me he's for real. Hopefully Eliason's late season swoon isn't, or the Gophers will need more from freshman Bakary Konate than they're likely planning on, although early reports on him are positive.
Forward is where the questions lie with Minnesota, though there's plenty of bodies it's more how they'll fit. In an ideal world newcomers Carlos Morris and Josh Martin would be able to step in and start with Joey King paying his "offense off the bench" sixth man role and Konate, Charles Buggs, and Daquein McNeil, who will also add minutes at the 2, backing them up with Gaston Diedhiou hopefully getting himself eligible for the second semester. I think it's more likely King starts the season as the starting power forward which I don't love as he's a tweener between a 3 and 4 so it's not a perfect fit wherever you put him. He did clearly work last year to improve his power forward type of skills and you could see the positive results by season's end, so hopefully he's been doing more work. And getting like, more faster and jumpy and stuff.
Yep, Gophers still have plenty of questions, but they also have more answers than an awful lot of teams in the Big Ten. It feels very strange writing something this positive, and even though I believe it I also don't believe the Gophers could possibly finish 4th in the conference and have an NCAA bid sewed up prior to the B10 Tournament. Things never go that well for Minnesota teams, so I'm expected some kind of a major injury either around game 4, or one of the first few Big Ten games after a really good pre-conference start. It's bound to happen. It's science.
OTHER PREVIEWS:
#5 ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI
#6 MICHIGAN
#7 MICHIGAN STATE
#8 IOWA HAWKEYES
#9 MARYLAND TERRAPINS
#10 INDIANA HOOSIERS
#11 PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS
#12 NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS
#13 PURDUE BOILERMAKERS
#14 RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS
Saturday, November 1, 2014
Big Ten Basketball Preview: #5 Illinois Fighting Illini
If you collect athletes, as John Groce has been doing since he got the Illinois job, at some point simply through their sheer numbers they'll put it altogether and have a pretty good season. Groce now has a whole bunch of top flight athletes, a lead dog in Rayvonte Rice who can be the big man on campus, and caught a big break with Tracy Abrams going down for the year with a knee injury because he is terrible. Rice is a better point guard, as are two transfer combo guards coming in from Oregon State and Seton Hall. Abrams has been the point guard for four years simply because Groce has continued on with Bruce Weber's tradition of refusing to ever sign a good, true point guard. With Abrams out the Illinois should end up with a more free flowing, faster offense that fits their athletic roster to a T (tee?).
Here's who is on the Illini's roster and their rank by 247sports when they were incoming freshmen: senior center Nganna Egwu #81, sophomores Kendrick Nunn #56, Malcolm Hill #103, Austin Colbert #98, Maverick Morgan #180, and Jaylon Tate #130, and freshmen Leron Black #43. Add in guys who transferred in with Rayvonte Rice, who led Illinois in scoring last season at 15.9 per game and also led in rebounding despite being just 6-4, Aaron Cosby (Seton Hall guy, averaged 13 points and 3 assists), and Ahmad Starks (Oregon State, averaged 10 and 2.3). I mean really, that's a shitload of talent. If Weber was here I'd say big whoop he's going to screw it all up anyway, but with Groce they should be ok and get to the NCAA Tournament, assuming they end up figuring out the PG situation.
And they should, because it should be pretty simple. Rice, Cosby, and Starks can all handle the ball, as can Tate. Rice is better off the ball, I think, and the transfers give him a chance to do just that the majority of the time. The Wing spot is in good shape as well, as any of those guys can play the #2 and add in Hill and Nunn and you've got plenty of options on the perimeter. Illinois does have a history of standing around and launching way too many horrible three-pointers and they could fall into that trap again - no returnee cracked 39% last season. The good news is Starks and Cosby both hit 40% last season, so there's another need those two transfers help fill. Pretty much perfect guys to transfer in, really.
Front court is pretty good shape as well, even if Egwu is the only returnee who averaged more than 7.1 minutes per game last season (7pts/6rebs/2blks in 30 mpg). Maverick Morgan is a monster at 6-10, 250 lbs. He didn't do much last year and he strikes me as a defense and rebounding type, but that's all this team will need from him. Another highly rated recruit who hasn't gotten much run is Austin Colbert, and he'll get his shot this year, but the real jewel here (other than Egwu who I seem to be glossing over but who is really quite a good player) is freshman Leron Black, ESPN's #44 recruit in the country. He's another incredible athlete Illinois can add to their surplus, but he's already got a polished offensive game with a decent mid-range jumper. He's my pick for freshman of the year if that's an award they give.
John Groce is a good coach, and there was little doubt he'd get the Illini turned around especially with a built in recruiting base of Chicago. He's been crushing the Chicago market and has built up two great classes in a row with a third on the way, and leveraged that with a lucrative transfer market where he's had a lot of success already. Illinois, however, has always seemed to have a talented and athletic squad, but it seems it's always been an issue getting them to really meld together and have sustained success, at least since the Deron Williams/Dee Brown team. Good chance Groce is the guy to do it, which means the Illini might be on the verge of becoming a Big Ten power. Yay.
OTHER PREVIEWS
#6 MICHIGAN
#7 MICHIGAN STATE
#8 IOWA HAWKEYES
#9 MARYLAND TERRAPINS
#10 INDIANA HOOSIERS
#11 PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS
#12 NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS
#13 PURDUE BOILERMAKERS
#14 RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS
Here's who is on the Illini's roster and their rank by 247sports when they were incoming freshmen: senior center Nganna Egwu #81, sophomores Kendrick Nunn #56, Malcolm Hill #103, Austin Colbert #98, Maverick Morgan #180, and Jaylon Tate #130, and freshmen Leron Black #43. Add in guys who transferred in with Rayvonte Rice, who led Illinois in scoring last season at 15.9 per game and also led in rebounding despite being just 6-4, Aaron Cosby (Seton Hall guy, averaged 13 points and 3 assists), and Ahmad Starks (Oregon State, averaged 10 and 2.3). I mean really, that's a shitload of talent. If Weber was here I'd say big whoop he's going to screw it all up anyway, but with Groce they should be ok and get to the NCAA Tournament, assuming they end up figuring out the PG situation.
And they should, because it should be pretty simple. Rice, Cosby, and Starks can all handle the ball, as can Tate. Rice is better off the ball, I think, and the transfers give him a chance to do just that the majority of the time. The Wing spot is in good shape as well, as any of those guys can play the #2 and add in Hill and Nunn and you've got plenty of options on the perimeter. Illinois does have a history of standing around and launching way too many horrible three-pointers and they could fall into that trap again - no returnee cracked 39% last season. The good news is Starks and Cosby both hit 40% last season, so there's another need those two transfers help fill. Pretty much perfect guys to transfer in, really.
Front court is pretty good shape as well, even if Egwu is the only returnee who averaged more than 7.1 minutes per game last season (7pts/6rebs/2blks in 30 mpg). Maverick Morgan is a monster at 6-10, 250 lbs. He didn't do much last year and he strikes me as a defense and rebounding type, but that's all this team will need from him. Another highly rated recruit who hasn't gotten much run is Austin Colbert, and he'll get his shot this year, but the real jewel here (other than Egwu who I seem to be glossing over but who is really quite a good player) is freshman Leron Black, ESPN's #44 recruit in the country. He's another incredible athlete Illinois can add to their surplus, but he's already got a polished offensive game with a decent mid-range jumper. He's my pick for freshman of the year if that's an award they give.
John Groce is a good coach, and there was little doubt he'd get the Illini turned around especially with a built in recruiting base of Chicago. He's been crushing the Chicago market and has built up two great classes in a row with a third on the way, and leveraged that with a lucrative transfer market where he's had a lot of success already. Illinois, however, has always seemed to have a talented and athletic squad, but it seems it's always been an issue getting them to really meld together and have sustained success, at least since the Deron Williams/Dee Brown team. Good chance Groce is the guy to do it, which means the Illini might be on the verge of becoming a Big Ten power. Yay.
OTHER PREVIEWS
#6 MICHIGAN
#7 MICHIGAN STATE
#8 IOWA HAWKEYES
#9 MARYLAND TERRAPINS
#10 INDIANA HOOSIERS
#11 PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS
#12 NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS
#13 PURDUE BOILERMAKERS
#14 RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS
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