Showing posts with label Padres. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Padres. Show all posts

Monday, December 22, 2014

Notes on Baseball, and a Little Hoops

It's the middle of winter, I have a billion days off, and there's lots going on that I haven't gotten to.  So here's some of that.

-  First off, the Torii Hunter signing.  Ugh.  Hate it.  Absolutely hate it and it was made for all the wrong reasons.  So all the moms and wives and sisters and casual fans will say "Yay!  I love Torii Hunter I'm so glad he's back let's go to a game!" even though the team sucks.  And they're going to suck this year.  The Twins are not going to contend for anything until 2016 at the earliest, and Hunter will be gone so it's a completely pointless signing.

A bridge to 2016 you say?  No.  He's not good anymore.  He's just not.  He's turned into a terrible fielder (not his fault, he's just old) and you can find a billion links to in depth studies, more than just advanced metrics, that prove it.  He hit the ball alright last year but he's been on a pretty steady downslope.  Sure, it's one year so it's pretty low risk, but that $10 million a year could have gone towards another pitcher (Jason Hammel signed for that) and those at bats need to be going towards any of the billion of question mark outfielders the Twins have.  Oswaldo Arcia and Aaron Hicks need as many ABs as possible so we can figure out what they are.  Even Jordan Schafer may have some future value.  Also.....wait......look at this 40-man roster.  Look at the outfielders.  There are no words.  Just horrible.

Ok so Hunter won't steal too many at-bats that he shouldn't, but they still could have used that $10 million better than on a marketing stunt.  The Santana and Hughes signings (hold on) showed that they were still going to spend beyond that $10 million, which was a big concern of mine at the time so maybe this isn't quite as bad as I thought.  Actually, now looking at everything, as a pure baseball move it's just fine.  I just hate the message, and I hate that they signed yet another washed up former Twin because he was a good guy when he was here (just not to the gays).  I guess I'm pretty fed up right now, especially watching the Padres (small market) and White Sox (division rival) go all in, right after Kansas City's go all-inedness paid off with a trip to the World Series.  I don't want to be patient any more.  Let's just move along.

-  More promising was the signing of Ervin Santana to a 4-year, $55 million deal.  I don't love it as much as some others, but Santana has been a pretty solid pitcher in four of the last five seasons, and although that one bad season was a disaster it's looking like more of a fluke than anything.  The $13-$14 million per year may be a bit of an overpay, but it's probably worth it to get a real major league pitcher, especially one who struck out north of 8 batters per 9 innings per last season (a stat which makes me wonder if the Twins had an aneurysm or something and missed the fact that he can actually miss bats).

Santana will be 35 by the end of the contract, which isn't ancient but is a little stomach turning, and who knows what kind of pitcher he'll be by then, but if the plan is to contend for the playoffs in 2016 he should be a key cog.  That's the hope anyway.  Both Santana and Hughes have some risk (hold on) so counting on them to be your front of the rotation guys is a little dicey, but it's a damn sight better than counting on Mike Pelfrey or Kevin Correia.  That may not be saying much, but hey, at least they're spending on potentially quality pitching.  Infinitely better than the Ricky Nolasco signing.

-  The Twins also signed Phil Hughes to an extension, wiping out the last two years of his current deal and extending him three more in what is essentially a 5 year, $58 million deal.  Although there's plenty of upside to the deal, since $11 million per will end up an absolute bargain if he can be the same pitcher he was last season, there are plenty of reasons to be nervous.  Five years is a long time, $58 million is a ton of money for a team like the Twins, and prior to last season Hughes was a complete train wreck.  I don't really understand why they felt the need to move now considering Hughes was under contract for two more seasons at a totally reasonable price.  Why not let him start the year on his existing deal and then, if he looks like the stud he was last season, extend him then instead of taking $58 million worth of risk on one season of proven production?

Then again, there isn't anything in his numbers that suggests last season was a fluke.  His BABIP was actually high, his FIP was almost a full run lower than his ERA, his K/BB ratio was an all-time record, and although his HR ratio probably dipped down below where it should be it should be offset by that high BABIP and his overall numbers should be around the same as last year.  That kind of season is #1 pitcher territory, and based on WAR and the current rate being paid per win (note:  I don't really know how this is calculated) Fangraphs estimates last season Hughes was worth around $30 million.  If he pitches anywhere near that well maybe it's harder to extend him or becomes significantly more expensive.  Hughes certainly cashed in on his great season, it's a matter of time to see who got fleeced.  I'm hoping for Hughes.

-  Another newly added Twin is J.R. Graham, a right-handed pitcher the Twins picked in the Rule 5 draft from the Atlanta Braves.  Graham was a fourth round pick out of college and rose as high as a top 100 prospect according to both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus pre-2013 before arm issues derailed him.  Last season he pitched in 27 games at Double-A (starting 19) and put up 5.55 ERA and 1.47 WHIP which are yuck.  He was a stud at the lower levels before the injuries, so even with the ugly numbers last year he's probably worth taking the chance on.  As a Rule 5 draftee Graham has to stay on the Twins Major League roster all season or be offered back to the Braves.  Seeing as how Graham hasn't pitched above AA and did so poorly last year it's certainly a risk, but it worked for Ryan Pressly a couple of seasons ago.  Expect to see Graham in a lot of blow out, non high leverage innings.  Hopefully he does well.

-  Last baseball thing I want to mention is how great it is to see San Diego just say "Fuck it" and go for it big time.  They've constructed a completely new outfield of Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, and Wil Myers, acquired a new catcher in Derek Norris, and landed a young 3B in Will Middlebrooks.  Considering the Padres were a historically horrible offense last year (their team total over/under in Vegas was frequently 2.5) replacing over half the lineup is not a bad idea, and they were able to do it without trading away any of their top 3 blue chip prospects (though they traded pretty much everyone else in the minors away).  They also only had to ship out one of their starters, a team strength, and will go into next season with a mostly intact rotation.  Two other signees, Josh Johnson and Brandon Morrow, have flashed a ton of talent but neither has had much success staying healthy - perfect signings to fill that #5 slot, really.

Of course, any time you take this kind of risk you are inviting disaster in countless ways.  Kemp will be tasked with playing center field and by any metric or the eye test his body really isn't up to that any more.  Myers had a really bad sophomore season and the Rays essentially totally gave up on him with questions about his work ethic.  Norris is a big bat but is pretty horrendous defensively, and Middlebrooks has been underwhelming at best in his short career.  I couldn't find anything bad to say about Upton.

This is all pessimism of course, since I'm a Minnesota fan, and I think these are fantastic risks for a team in need of a shot in the arm and I'd love the Twins to pursue a similar course once they think they're close to being a contender.  They also now have an expendable Carlos Quentin, who can still hit the crap out of the ball when healthy - though he hasn't played more than 100 games since 2011 so who knows if he even can be healthy anymore.  If he can get through the first half of the season or so healthy and hitting, expect the Padres to aggressively move him to an American League team since he's basically a born DH.  It's a fun time to be a Padre fan.  I hate them.

-  Moving on to NCAA Hoops, uh, how good is Kentucky?  My goodness they just overwhelm teams.  The scary part is they're really winning with defense, because they have the most talent of anyone, they're incredibly athletic and tall (almost everyone who plays is 6-6 or bigger) and because they're so deep they can give total effort on the defensive end, knowing they won't have to conserve energy because they won't be playing heavy minutes.  And everyone is buying into the concept.  I'm really not interested in another Kentucky championship, but man I'm not sure how they don't end up winning.

Because they're so good defensively and so deep it's hard to see a team just jump up and beat them on a fluky night.  The only two teams I see who could beat them this year are Duke and Louisville.  Duke is nearly as deep and nearly as talented as Kentucky, so I could see them beating Kentucky if the Wildcats don't play their best game.  Louisville is super talented and can almost match Kentucky's athleticism, and they play a style that could work against the Wildcats if they can speed them up (and we might find out on Saturday).  Depressing?  Yes, but I mean, watch these guys.

-  Looks like the Gophers damn near dropped one to Furman tonight before rallying to win by 10.  That's definitely not good, but looking around the Big Ten avoiding the home loss to the crappy opponent seems to be a key this season.  I mean, Michigan lost to NJIT and Eastern Michigan, Michigan State lost to Texas Southern, Indiana lost to Eastern Washington, Northwestern lost to Central Michigan, Nebraska lost to Incarnate Word, Purdue lost to Gardner Webb and North Florida, and Rutgers lost to St. Francis and St. Peter's.  These are all horrible, horrible losses.  These aren't upsets, these are mega-upsets.  Avoiding this loss to Furman keeps the Gophers record intact, along with Wisconsin, Iowa, Maryland, Ohio State, Illinois, and Penn State (depending on how you feel about Charlotte).

I can't really write much about tonight's game because I didn't realize the game was on ESPN3 until late in the second half, but I did manage to catch the last ten minutes or so of game time and Furman could not miss.  Some of it is on the Gopher defense, yes, but the Paladins (for reals) hit a bunch of shots I'm willing to wager they don't usually knock down as well.  Every so often you run into a buzzsaw, not getting chopped down is a good thing.  As long as they don't come out and go down to the wire against Wilmington on Saturday you can pretty much just write this one off to a weird night - a weird night that didn't end up in a loss, a rarity in the B10 this year.

-  Lastly, fantasy football is stupid.

Thursday, April 28, 2011

Wednesday Wonderings

A few quick, random thoughts while watching Francisco Liriano throw batting practice.

-  Apparently Peyton Hillis is the cover boy for the next Madden and even weirder, he ended up the cover boy by winning a tournament against a bunch of other players which fans voted on.  What?  How can Peyton freaking Hillis win a popularity contest?  The only people who would vote for Peyton Hillis are Browns fans, racists, people who won their fantasy league because of him, and racists who won their fantasy league because of them.  I can see him beating Mike Vick (the guy he beat in the finals) because some people love dogs a little too much (and some people hate black people), but winning a whole tournament?  I'm baffled.  The only tournament Hillis should win is a tournament of people I know the least about.

-  I know nobody pays attention the National League, but if you have you may have noticed that the Padres are possibly the worst offensive team in history - dead last in runs scored in the majors (just one less than the Twins - oy!) and last in runs per game.  Bad enough that Orlando Hudson is their number three hitter, and bad enough to have scored just 8 total runs in their last seven games.  It's a fantastic example of why wins are an awful way to measure a pitcher because Dustin Moseley has started five games and compiled an ERA of 1.99 (2nd in the NL) and a WHIP of 1.11 (14th) and yet he's 0-3.  That's because in his five starts the Padres have won 5-3 (and didn't win until the 13th inning), 2-1, 1-0, 4-0, and 2-0.  That's one run they've scored in the his last four starts.  I know idiots like Bert Blyleven will talk about pitching to the game situation, but there's a reason he's won the big stupid idiot of the year award seventeen times.  I assume.

-  Eric Hacker with back-to-back bases loaded walks.  That's not easy to do.  Good thing they signed him to a major league deal, especially since he hadn't pitched in the majors since 2009 and probably would have taken a minor league offer.  It's like if you're trying to lure a fatty into your van, you don't need to offer a t-bone steak because the fatty will climb on in for an Arby's junior roast beef.  It's just common sense.

-  Hold on to your panties, ladies, and hold on to your hearts, boys, because the third coming of Jesus is coming back on Tuesday.   Yep, Big Sexy, Evan Longoria has started re-habbing and is scheduled to join the team on Tuesday.  Although I'm sure his rehab isn't like normal people rehab.  Probably a lot more banging chicks.

-  Have you ever read Journey to the Center of the Earth by Jules Verne?  Let me save you some time:  don't.  I figured it would be at least entertaining because hey, it's got dinosaurs so what the hell.  But I'm 90% of the way through, other than a short Ichthyosaur vs. Plesiosaur (how sweet would that movie be) fight, and some Mastodons in the distance the dinosaurs have been non-existant.  So far it's basically been a cartoon character, a mute, and a whiny narrator wandering around in a cave.  Hell, there is more time spent on geology than dinosaurology.  Big disappointment so far.  Arthur Conan Doyle's The Lost World is infinitely better.

- Finally, the NFL draft is tomorrow, and although I usually make fun of people who take football too seriously and though the whole move to primetime last year was ridiculous, I ended up watching and actually enjoyed it.  I won't be watching this year, however, because I will be making my slow-pitch softball pitching debut (weather permitting).  Which probably means I will either walk 20 guys or end up with a broken face.  Maybe both.

Monday, April 26, 2010

Week in Review - 4/26/2010

Obviously the big news of the weekend was Cory Joseph signing on with the Texas Longhorns for next season.  I'm disappointed, of course, but not surprised.  When every article discussing him and his possibilities only talked about Villanova and Texas, I started to think that maybe Gopher fans were fooling themselves, much the way Iowa State fans acted about Harrison Barnes - the rest of the world knew they were just in as a finalist as a courtesy.  I don't know if that is the case with Joseph and the Gophers or not, but he's going to Texas and should do well.  Of course, the delusions are already coming, as I read from one Gopher fan that "Cory isn't as good as Devoe" and expect a lot more to come, as well as quite a bit of reveling in any Texas misery that may come their way this year.

I say good luck to Cory, and I have no real issue with his decision.  Texas is a far better program than Minnesota, and I don't know how anybody could argue otherwise.  Despite cries that Rick Barnes underachieves with the talent he gets, and he probably does, he still makes the tournament every single year and puts players in the NBA.  Really the only thing the Gophers had going for them were that Cory's friend and his brother were here, but Texas had two of his former teammates as well - one of which who was a pretty good friend.  I'm pretty sure if I were in the same spot (and didn't have my homegrown Gopher bias) I would have made the same decision.  It would have been a hell of a get if Tubby could have pulled this one off.  It's time to close up shop and go into next year with what's already in the holster - I don't really like anything that's still out there for 2010.  This team should be around a 6-7 seed this year, and hopefully good enough to finally win a first round game.



WHO WAS AWESOME

1.  Justin Morneau.  I'm guessing you haven't realized this because you really aren't all that bright, but guess who leads the major league in on-base percentage;  yep, the giant-headed Canadian.  He's currently reaching base at a .511 clip (including .607 this week), which combined with his .368 average and .647 slugging means he is straight up mashing the ball right now.  Even when he's not lacing base hits he's walking like crazy - 20 times already this year, leading the major leagues.  That actually brings me to another point, which is that the Twins are actually leading the majors in walks as a team.  They're leading the league.  Doesn't that just seem bizarre?  Did you ever think you'd see the day?  Morneau obviously leads at his position, while Mauer is fourth, Hudson fifth, Hardy 7th, Brendan Harris is 12th in limited playing time, and amongst outfielders Span is second and Kubel is fourth.  Really out of the important batters only Cuddyer and Delmon don't walk (Thome has more than either of them), and it's just fun to watch a bunch of guys on the same time who know how to get the pitch they want and know how to work the pitcher to get it - and it's effective to, as seen by them having the AL Central basically locked up already.

2.  Mike Leake.  He didn't have two wins this week and wasn't especially dominant, but he did pick up his first career win so it's time to recognize him a bit.  Snake is the one who tipped me off to the Cincinnati rookie, so of course he's on our fantasy team, and he's looking really solid this year - just one year removed from Arizona State.  He was picked by the Reds ninth overall last season, and made his debut this season with no minor league ball in between - something the Nationals are too stupid or too cheap to due with Strasburg.  He's gone at least 6 and 2/3 innings in each of his three starts this year, and his overall numbers are a 1.55 WHIP, 3.92 ERA, and a 13/13 K/BB ratio.  None of those are especially impressive, but remember those are through just three professional starts at any level.  Once this kid makes the adjustment he's going to be very, very good.  Think Mike Mussina-like.

3.  San Diego Padres.  I suppose it's time to recognize that the Padres have a good team.  There's still a chance it's all a fluke, and a good chance at that, but with a - record it's time to at least consider the possibility that the Padres have turned it around and are a quality team again.  They're 11-7 now after losing to the Reds on Sunday, but before that they had won 8 in a row, and still sit atop the NL West, ahead of the Giants, Rockies, and Dodgers.  And, as you would probably guess, they are doing it with pitching.  Their team ERA is just 2.73 - tops in the majors - and both the starters and the bullpen and having great years thus far.  They'll most likely fade by the all-star break, but there are enough good young arms here that if they get any offense at all they might be able to play the spoiler.  In any case, it's a lot of fun having the Padres be a good team.

4. Ike Davis.  The Mets promoted Ike to the majors a bit early in order to jump start their offense and fan interest, and so far Mr. Davis has responded well and done exactly what they needed him to.  He has hit .318 since he was called up on Monday, has reached base in every game except last night's shortened game, and the Mets have gone 6-1.  They're still a crappy team, but they are playing quite a bit better in the last week.  Clearly, it's all because of Ike Davis.  This guy must be the next David Eckstein - you know, how he makes everybody else on the team better.  Or he's the Mets answer to Jeter, but far less gay and annoying.  Looking like a Twins vs. Mets World Series.  Book your tickets now.

5.  Doug Fister.  You've probably never heard of this guy, I know I certainly hadn't, but he's a second-year starter for the Mariners and he's putting up some pretty impressive numbers so far this year.  He'd be sitting at 3-1 right now if the world's worst closer other than Bobby Jenks, David Aardsma, hadn't blown his win on Saturday.  Fister went 8 strong innings, giving up just 2 runs on 8 hits, which followed up his earlier outing on Monday, when he went seven solid against the Orioles, allowing just 1 run on 3 hits.  He's currently at just a 1.67 ERA with a WHIP of 0.93.  His lack of strikeouts (just 4.5 per 9) and a sickly-low BABIP against (.212) say that he's not the kind of ace who is going to be able to keep this up, but for now at least he's looking like a pretty solid middle-of-the-rotation type starter.  And also "Fister?  I hardly knew 'er!" 


WHO SUCKED

1.  Royals' Bullpen.  Seriously, how many games of Greinke's are these guys going to blow?  Zach's struggled a bit out of the gate, but on Wednesday he left the game after the 7th with a lead after giving up just two hits (of course, one of the was a 2-run home run) and then people named Josh Rupe and John Parrish take just three batters to blow the lead.  And I guess I just answered my own question.  Look at these names before you get to Soria:  Josh Rupe, John Parrish, Dusty Hughes, Robinson Tejeda, Juan Cruz, and Kyle Farnsworth (and we saw most of these guys melt-down to varying degrees in the Twins series over the weekend).  Pretty much all these guys have already failed elsewhere, and I don't mean failed as starters I mean they've already failed at being middle relievers.  The only guy who was every good was Farnsworth, but along with the weird perm and nerd glasses he's lost the ability to pitch as well.  Just brutal.  And I know you don't care about mine and Snake's fantasy team, except that really you do if you just admit it to yourself, but we need those wins from Greinke.  It looks like he's going to have to go 8 innings to get to Soria or just finish it out himself if he's ever going to win again.  And if he keeps not throwing enough strikes he's never going to get there.  Nobody can hit you Zacky, just toss that pill over the plate.  And win, baby.  Win.

2. Carlos Zambrano.  There really isn't a good way to spin getting demoted from #1 starter to bullpen set-up guy into a positive.  So, uh.  I guess that's it then.

3.  Pittsburgh Pirates.  So much for the great Pirate resurgence.  They started out pretty well, but unlike the Padres have been unable to sustain it, going - this week, and man, the fall has been spectacular.  They started the week 7-6 and are finishing it 7-12 after getting swept by the Brewers and the piss-poor Astros.  And that Brewer series was especially horrible, with the Pirates losing 8-1, 8-0, and 20-0.  Overall for the week they were outscored 55-9.  Special shout-out to their pathetic offense, by the way.  Akinori Iwamura 1-18.  Ronny Cedeno 2-17.  Lastings Milledge 2-14.  Delwyn Young 1-14.  Just a really spectacular effort all around. 

4.  Seattle Seahawks.  I suppose on the weekend of the NFL draft it's inevitable that I'd have to comment on something football related, and the Seahawks are the lucky team to draw my considerable wrath.  This is about their draft, which based on my limited knowledge actually looks like a really good one, but it's based on their brand new stable of running backs.  The returners are Julius Jones and someone named Justin Forsett, and they actually traded for LenDale White and Leon Washington this weekend.  Like, actually traded for them, not just signed them to a minor-league deal or whatever.  Look at those four running backs.  You know, you can keep throwing turds in a bowl, it doesn't make it a salad.  And, more importantly, you don't win friends with salad.

5.  Jason Kubel.  You know I frickin' love the guy, but what in the holy hell is going on?  This week was just a complete nightmare (1-19, 1 single, 8 Ks), which dropped his season average to .169 and his slugging to a Punto-esque .288.  He's still walking (13 this year) so even when he isn't hitting he brings value to the team, but he needs to stop being so crappy or I will totally break up with him.  I still have faith, but I'm pretty sure he's getting benched for this fantasy week.

I feel like I should have had some kind of NBA playoffs thing in here somewhere, but so far they've been pretty boring.  Also, in my defense,

"FISTER?  I damn near killed 'er!"