Monday Musings

I know, I'm a terrible blogger.  But it's really not my fault.  Gopher basketball is in a dead period for recruiting, so there's nothing to talk about there, and the Twins are sucking the life out of me once again on their way to another probably 90+ loss season.  How depressing is it that they're at .500 at the quarter mark of the season, but it feels like they're overachieving on a massive level?  It just feels like they're about to go on a 3-17 streak.  Anyway, since I have a bye in softball tonight, might as well put the time to good use.  I mean use.  Here's some stuff:

-  I suppose the biggest news locally is that Kevin Love has come out and said he won't sign an extension with the Wolves and plans to test free agency after next season - which means there's no chance in hell the Wolves end up signing him.  It was somehow both completely expected and a huge stomach punch at the same time.  Kahn really fucked us by not giving Love that fifth year (plus the whole out clause thing), and the only hope was that Flip could somehow trick him into staying.  Looks like it didn't work, so it's time to shift into getting as much as the Wolves can for him.  I would prefer it happen prior to this year's draft since it's so loaded, but Love wants to go to a contender and it's hard finding one of those with both young and promising players and draft picks, and assuming nobody will trade for him unless he agrees to sign a long term deal with them Love's going to need to be on board with his destination.  Some possibilities:

• LAKERS:  The long rumored destination given Love's ties to LA, this is going to be a tough one to make work.  The Lakers have a ridiculous amount of money tied up in Kobe ($30m) and Gasol ($19m) and would almost certainly have to include Gasol to make the money work and that does the Wovles very little good.  They also have basically zero interesting young players with the possible exception of Kendall Marshall.  They do have the sixth slot in the lottery in this year's draft, but they've already traded their 2015 and 2017 first round picks, which means they can't trade 2016.  No chance Love gets to the Lakers without a third team getting involved.
• CHICAGO:  Taj Gibson and Jimmy Butler are a decent starting point to get a trade done, and the Bulls have #16 and #19 in this year's draft, and Chicago has 2015 first rounders from both Sacramento and Cleveland.  Gibson, Butler, and four first round picks would normally be enough to get it done but both those 2015 picks have some weird protections on them that actually mean they're either going to be non-lottery picks or no picks at all.  Probably the front-runner.
• GOLDEN STATE:  The Warriors can offer the best package of players, giving either Harrison Barnes or Klay Thompson as the centerpiece and maybe including either David Lee or Andrew Bogut.  They have zero draft picks to trade, however, having given up their 2014 and 2017 already.  The Warriors would likely need to get a third team involved, but starting with Barnes or Thompson is a good jumping off point.
• BOSTON:  I'm assuming the Wolves have no interest in Rondo, but Boston can still start with Jeff Green and Kelly Olynyk which is a decent enough start.  More interestingly, the Celtics have the #5 spot in the lottery in 2014 and the #17 pick as well, along with three 2015 firsts, and two first in each of 2016, 2017, and 2018 (thanks Brooklyn!).  I'm not sure if Boston's involved at all, and they're further from contention than anybody else on this list, but the combination of draft picks and the ability to use Rondo to entice a third team to throw some stuff in makes Boston the team I'd most like to see Love traded to (also it's nice to have traditions, and Minnesota stars going to Boston is a tradition as old as time).  
• PHOENIX:  The Suns have the last spot in the lottery this year and picks 18 and 27 as well, and will get the Wolves pick if it falls to #14.  They also have the Lakers' 2015 first rounder.  Assuming they won't give up Erik Bledsoe there isn't much here player wise, but I can already see the Wolves trying to talk fans into some combination of the two Morris twins and Archie Goodwin.  
• KNICKS:  They're going to come up because they're New York, but they have no chance of getting a trade done.  Their only asset is Tim Hardaway, because they've completely traded away their next three drafts.  The Knicks' only hope is that a trade doesn't get done and they can get him as a free agent.

Best case scenario is some of these teams and others get together and somehow the Wolves end up with a huge haul.  Something like the Wolves get a bunch of the Celtics picks, and the Celtics ship Rondo to the Bulls who then throw an extra pick or Jimmy Butler or somebody the Wolves way.  Of course, I've been a Minnesota fan for long enough to expect a terrible trade.  They'll probably deal him straight up for Andrew Bogut.

-  I suppose I may need to do a Phil Hughes breakdown at some point, given that he's been lights out in his last four games.  Seriously, a 1.37 ERA, a WHIP under 1.00, an opponent's slash line of .230/.228/.300, and 20 Ks vs. 0 BBs in 26 innings is really impressive stuff.  He'll throw again on Wednesday in San Diego, and if he throws another gem, which seems likely given both the opponent and the park, I'll put up a post looking at his results a little more in depth.

-  Remember how I hit the trifecta in the Kentucky Derby and was going Sizzler?  Well I hit it for the Preakness too.  Same bet, same risk amount.  Big difference, however, in payout.  The Preakness had 10 horses, while the Derby had 19, so odds were significantly reduced already, and then the Preakness had 3 big favorites hit the first three spots while the Derby at least had one significant longshot sneak in there.  So the Derby payout was $1,541.  The Preakness payout?  $38.  No joke.  Was quite the letdown, but at least I've hit two now so I'll be playing for my own Triple Crown in a couple weeks.

-  Looks like Justin Morneau's skull seems to finally be ok seeing as he's off to a hell of a start.  He's hitting .327, which ranks 5th in the NL, with 9 homers (6th) and 32 RBI (4th).  Seriously once teammate Troy Tulowitzki finally gets hurt Morneau might be the front runner for MVP.  His power is way up, with an ISO near his career high in his MVP year, and although you can at least partially credit Coors for that, Morneau deserves the credit for cutting his K rate nearly in half and getting back down to where it was in his prime years.  He's being more aggressive, particularly at balls in the strike zone, and is hammering them pretty good.  His HR/FB rate is probably unsustainable so the home runs will probably taper off a bit, but he's in line for a pretty damn good season.  Here's a nerdy article talking about how he's one of the top players when it comes to hammering the ball compared to last season.

-  Among major league starters the Twins' have three of the highest 15 WHIPS -  #1 Kevin Correia at 1.68, #10 Ricky Nolasco at 1.53, and #15 Kyle Gibson at 1.47.  That, of course, doesn't include Mike Pelfrey who got shut down with a fake injury with a WHIP of 1.99.  I mean that's just like what?  Doesn't something need to be done at this point?  From the constant injuries that go from day-to-day to season ender without a trip to the DL, to the jettisoning of any talented player if they don't play "the Twins way", to this constant need to go back to the same shitty veterans like Matt Guerrier and Jason Bartlett just because they've been Twins before, to the in season roster mis-management that leads to not having a center fielder but having four shortstops this organization is a complete mess.  I need to write a whole post on this before I find myself down the rabbit hole here.  To sum up:

-  I was going to try to hit on the Gophers recruiting targets for 2015, but holy hell are Richard Pitino and the boys busy.  According to 247sports.com they have 26 offers out to 2015 unsigned players and I just really don't feel like going through all of that right now.  There are various levels of interest from the recruits, so I'll just hit a couple of the highlights (all rankings from 247 industry composite number) -

PG Jarvis Johnson (Minneapolis, MN), #81 overall/#18 PG - A De La Salle kid and the first legitimate shot for Pitino to keep the border closed on the players he wants. At all but the top programs keeping the borders closed on your top talent is a good way to build a program, and a guy like Johnson is good enough to boost the Gophers without being so good he's got programs you can't say no to after him - although Michigan State did just get involved so gulp.  The Gophers are considered a pretty big favorite over Wisconsin for his services, but the whole Sparty thing throws everything off.  Pretty important recruit here.

SG Jimmy Whitt (Columbia, MO), #96 overall/23 SG - This guy is piling up offers left and right, and although Arkansas is considered the favorite I've seen his name pop up around the Gophers a couple of times and there are so many teams involved things are still pretty murky.  One wrinkle is it looks like he digs Kansas but they haven't offered yet, so most likely once Kansas misses out on some of their top targets they'll move on to Whitt and he'll sign immediately even though he acted like he liked all these other schools because Kansas is jerks.

SF Danjel Purifoy (Centreville, AL), #43 overall/#10 SF - Worth noting as he's the highest rated player who is given "Warm" interest in the Gophers by 247, along with every SEC school and Maryland, Michigan, and Wichita.  Yes, Kentucky has reportedly offered but I'm guessing he's a back burner type for them, just given Calipari's ability to grab top 10-ish recruits at every position every year.  Purifoy should get you seriously excited given he's an absolutely insane athlete who can handle the ball.  He'd come in and immediately start for the Gophers and he can score, defend, and rebound already.  His jumper isn't very good right now but when nobody can stop your drive you can be a bit more patient with that.  This guy, we want.

PF Alex Illikainen (Grand Rapids, MN), #65 overall, #17 PF - If you could say the Gophers have one traditional recruiting strength regardless of coach, it's been out state Minnesota kids.  I'm trying to remember a non-city kid from the state who the Gophers wanted and didn't get and I can't think of one.  The closest I can come is Cody Johnson who ended up at Iowa State but I don't think the Gophers really recruited him.  I guess you could count J.P. Macura if you wanted but I meant more country kids, not places like Lakeville, and the whole coaching change thing makes it a crap shoot.  In any case, the Gophers should be in decent shape for Illikainen, although the competition isn't from anyone who strikes particular fear into my heart (Cal, Creighton, Iowa State, and Indiana are the other schools who have offered and he's shown interest in).  He's a perfect stretch four who can also run the floor well and finish in transition, so he not only is from Minnesota but he'd fit Pitino's system perfectly.  He's pretty much a Gopher Hole wet dream, and in this case I can't blame them.

C Akolda Manyang (Duluth, MN), #1 overall JUCO, #1 overall JUCO C - Pulling kids from Junior College is always a crap shoot as their are some incredible success stories and some disasters and everything in between, but he's highly rated, he's seven feet tall, and he's at least got some other high majors after him (Oklahoma, Arizona State).  I promise if things heat up I'll try to track down some kind of scouting or more info on him, but for now he's really tall and some people like him.


Honestly if Pitino got an all Minnesota class (with Manyang, Illikainen and Johnson) that would be a pretty good class and make those weirdos who want the team to be like, only Minnesota kids happy too.  Two top 100 kids and the top Juco would be a nice step up for the program and a natural build, made all the easier by it being local kids.  That being said, Pitino is so aggressive and he has so many offers out to so many top kids I'm hoping that after so many near misses last year he finally lands somebody that is like wow - #22 Allonzo Trier, #39 Eric Davis, #42 Jalen Adams, #21 Brandon Ingram, #6 Chieck Diallo, #27 Moustapha Diagne, and #16 Doral Moore are all in play to various degrees.  Hopefully he gets one (or more).

Morneau, Gopher Football, Hoops recruiting, and stuff

Plenty of stuff happening out there.  Crazy world.


1.  Justin Morneau traded to Pittsburgh.  I know trading Justin Morneau makes your heart hurt and I get it.  He's been a Twin forever and for you people with human emotions it makes you sad that he's gone.  Just look around at all the Twins' blogs and newspapers and there are nothing but heartfelt good-byes, and with good reason.  But objectively, trading him was the correct move because he won't be around to be part of the team when they're good again, he's not that good anymore (although a hot August is probably what got him traded), and it made sense to try to get something for him rather than nothing when he walks at the end of the year.

What they got was actually better than I had expected, but isn't a team builder kind of a trade which just tells you how much Morneau has slipped since that damn concussion.  The Pirates sent the Twins back of Alex Presley, a definite major leaguer but more of a depth/4th outfielder type, and rp Duke Welker, who is a fireballer with little idea where it's going after it leaves his hand, making him an intriguing lottery ticket.

Presley is 28 and still doing the bounce around from AAA to the majors thing for the Pirates, but he should slot in nicely for the Twins since he can play all three outfield positions and has a little bit of speed and a little bit of power.  He's not much of a walker (which you know the Twins love) and so far this year he has 19 strikeouts against just one walk which is not real good but he's an ok player even with limited upside.

More upside comes from Welker, who is 6-7 and throws in the mid-90s and strikes out about a batter per inning but also walks more than 4 batters per 9 (that's really shitty for a reliever).  His other numbers look pretty good - 2.29 ERA, 1.24 WHIP - and he already hit the show for a bit with the Pirates (4 batters faced, 4 outs, 1 K) so he could be ready by next year (or even this year).  The Twins pride themselves on getting their pitchers to throw strikes, right or wrong, and if they can help Welker out with his command without hurting his stuff or going with the "pitch to contact" nonsense he could be a nice middle reliever.

Yes, it sucks that the Morneau era ended and how it ended. He went from one of the best hitters in all of baseball to a below average first baseman, hitting .286/.358/.511  prior to that stupid concussion and .256/.317/.412 after, essentially become a league average hitter which becomes well below average when you're playing at a premium offensive position.  It's hard to believe a concussion could have that kind of impact on someone's ability, but it's not like it's unprecedented and the Twins' training staff has proven itself to be pretty much incompetent over the years so, you know.  I was already going to be rooting for the Pirates, but this gives me a little more incentive.

Also, if you have found yourself saying, "Well he's a free agent after the season the Twins' could just resign him" please go ahead and hit yourself in the nuts with a pitch fork.

2.  Gopher football is undefeated.  Even if the win was only over UNLV a win is a win and Gopher football needs to take whatever they can get (especially since I bet on the OVER 5.5 season wins).  It wasn't exactly an impressive win, and Philip Nelson's QB style seems to be making one read and either forcing it to that read whether he's open or not or just pulling the ball down and running.  Luckily, UNLV's quarterback seemed to come from the same QB school.  The Gopher gameplan was also less than imaginative and looked like something out of Tecmo Bowl (not Super Tecmo Bowl, just regular Tecmo Bowl) but the Rebel's offense looked more like they were drawing the plays up in the dirt while in the huddle so the Gophers had the advantage there too.

I'm no football expert, but it looked to me like the Gophers have a really crappy offense, a decent defense, and ended up blowing UNLV out thanks to three big plays (kick return TD, Interception TD, and blocked kick TD) that are non-repeatable in any meaningful way.  That's a clear indicator of an overstated spread (they're favored by 17 pts) in their next game against New Mexico State, so go ahead and join me in betting against the Gophers because there's no way they should be favored by 17 on the road no matter who they're playing.

3.  A whole lot is happening recruiting-wise, and we're still waiting to hear any good news.   Kyle Kuzma committed to Utah.  Wade Baldwin signed up with Vanderbilt.  Quentin Snider dropped the Gophers out of consideration.  J.P. Macura, who was supposed to be a sure thing, keeps doing things like visiting Purdue and Xavier.  Rakeem Buckles didn't get his waiver to play immediately and will remain at FIU.  And Lourawls Nairn visited this past weekend and left without committing to Pitino, even though he's explicitly stated multiple times he was going to take all 3 of his planned official visits (Oklahoma, Indiana) before making a choice we're all panicking anyway.

There remain enough intriguing options and realistic possibilities that there's really no reason to panic, but the raging optimism from a month or so ago has certainly flagged.  Along with Nairn and Macura there's still some optimism around Isaiah Whitehead, even if he hasn't yet set an official visit here, there's a realistic shot at two of the local kids (Travis and Vaughn), and Paul White, Josh Martin, and Marial Shayok are taking officials to the U.  I'm not worried at this point, but I would like it a whole lot if somebody, anybody, would just make a verbal to the Gophers.  Just so I know it's possible.

4.  I discovered Breaking Bad. You know how when everybody is saying something is awesome it almost always sucks like Rudy or Glee or Jennifer Lopez?  Well this is the opposite of that.  Everyone who watches the show says it's pretty much the best show ever, and they're right.  If you're not watching it yet, start.  If you are, you know what I'm talking about.  You just never know what's going to happen next and it's never boring.  It's been like a week since I started watching and I'm on Season 3, Episode 5 already.  Sure, I'm ignoring my family and haven't gone to work in a week, but at least I'm catching up on my pop culture and will be able to act all snooty to people who haven't watched this show yet.  "I mean really, Audrey, you can't talk about great TV if you've never watched Breaking Bad." *rollseyes *sipsbrandy

5.  Josmil Pinto made his major league debut, going 2-4 with a double.   This is significant to me because with Morneau now on the Pirates and Chris Parmelee proving to be terrible the door is wide open for Joe Mauer to move to first base full-time, and after this concussion mess it seems more likely than ever the Twins will go in that direction.  The question then becomes who is the catcher of the future, and it's probably either Josmil Pinto or Chris Herrmann.

They're both considered around the same prospect level (Gleeman has Herrmann at #20 and Pinto at #37, John Sickels has them both in his OTHERS TO CONSIDER which means just outside the top 20).  Herrmann's been up since July, and although he hasn't been great he hasn't been terrible either, showing a pretty good batting eye and some decent pop in his bat while being a halfway decent defensive catcher and outfielder, although Pinto's minor league numbers were much better this year than Herrmann, hitting .309/.400/.482 between New Britain and Rochester.

Neither Herrmann nor Pinto is likely to become a big-time impact player, but both are likely to become useful players and either (or both) has a chance to evolve into a full-time starting catcher and hold down the job for a while.  Pinto probably has the better bat, but Herrmann is much better defensively and offers the additional benefit of being able to play the outfield competently while Pinto is either a catcher or DH.  While the Twins have tons of questions and not many answers with the squad right now, catcher is one where they can probably feel good - Mauer or no Mauer in the mix.  Seems weird.

6.  Johnny Manziel can play some football.  I know everybody likes to jump on Johnny Football and tear him apart for doing things like going to a casino and watching a basketball game because everyone is jealous and people generally suck, but let's not forget that this dude can play some fucking football.  After he served his weirdo 1st half suspension, he came in for the second half and went 6-8 for 94 yards and 3 TDs as the Aggies beat Rice 52-31.  Watching the highlights made it clear Manziel is one of the best Qbs in the country, as if winning the Heisman last year didn't prove that already.  80% of college QBs can make one read and then it's time to run (like P. Nelson), and another 15% can go all the way to a second read and that's it.  There's only like 5% who can play QB like a real, actual QB, and that's why it's so much fun to watch guys like Manziel and Andrew Luck back when he was in college. 

7.  Not how I'd get fired up for the NFL season, but over at the blog Pat is Crazy long-time friend of the blog Joe U. (that's his quote up on the banner) decided to re-watch the 1998 (or 1999 depending on how you want to define it) NFC Championship game, also known as the game that destroyed the ability to actually enjoy sports for many, many Minnesota sports fans.  And he blogged it, live blog style.  Don't make his pain meaningless, go read it.

MLB Trade Deadline

First off, screw you Ryan Braun.  I hope your balls fall off.  Braun tried so hard to tell us all he was innocent, but of course he wasn't.  Meanwhile, children in Milwaukee are sad and Braun goes right back to his $100MM contract next season.  At least it happened to Wisconsin.  If someone deserves this, it's them.  I enjoy that MLBers like Skip Schumaker and Jesse Crain are getting sick of the cheaters and are coming out and speaking against it.

It seems like there are a lot of veterans that are on the block this year as we approach the trade deadline.  The increase in potential activity is probably due to some close races in divisions as well as the addition of the second wild-card.  Here are some dudes that might be on the move.

@mike_olt

Matt Garza - Well, I was so lazy writing this that Garza already got traded to the Rangers.  The Cubs receive Mike Olt, Justin Grimm and CJ Edwards as well as 1 or 2 players to be named later.  It's only 1 if they choose Neil Ramirez.  Mike Olt was the #22 prospect at the beginning of the year according to Baseball America.  He's 24 and has struggled at AAA after mashing AA the year prior.  He was dealing with some weird eye thing which could have contributed to the suck.  He's a solid defender at 3B.  Grimm is a starter that's been poor in 17 starts for the Rangers, but was a top 10 prospect for them and has mid rotation potential.  Edwards is 21 and is ripping up class A ball with a 1.83 ERA over 93 IP. 

Alfonso Soriano - It sounds like if I don't type fast enough today Soriano will be a Yankee by the time I post.  A deal requires Soriano to waive a no-trade clause.  Also, the Cubs will be paying quite a bit of the remaining $24.9MM owed to him.  The Yankees would be sending a minor league relief prospect like Chase Whitley and/or Tommy Kahnle.  Soriano is hitting .256 with a .286 OBP, but does have 17 homers.  He has a 1.2 WAR so far this year.  Vernon Wells, the player he would likely replace, has a 0.0 WAR. 

Jake Peavy - With Garza gone, Peavy is the next mostly heavily talked about pitcher available.  The 32 year old just returned from a stint on the DL due to a rib injury.  He has a 4.19 ERA, but advanced stats show he's had a bit of bad luck out there.  (xFIP 3.65)  He's still striking out 8.5/9 and walking just 1.85/9.  The Red Sox seems to be the hottest after Peavy and they could definitely use him.    Peavy is due $29MM over the next two years.  The Giants, Rockies and D-Backs have also shown some interest.  Peavy should garner a Garza-esque package.  Especially since he's under control for two years, where Garza is a free agent after this season.

Justin Morneau - Jon Heyman wrote that teams are "soft" on the idea of trading for Morneau.  The Pirates and Yankees were the most rumored over the last week.  You would think Morneau could see a spike of production in a new environment that isn't Target Field, but his home/road splits show that he's actually worlds better at home.  He hits 320/368/521 with 6 of his 7 homers at home; he's a miserable 222/294/284 hitter on the road.  Maybe teams have cooled because they googled some Morneau splits and don't want to pay the last $6MM of Morneau's 6yr/80MM deal for that type of production.

While there has been a lot of speculation about Justin Morneau and other Twins, rivals haven’t sensed a big push from MIN to make deals.
— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) July 21, 2013

Aramis Ramirez - Aramis is on the DL, but teams are still showing interest.  In fact, he probably won't even be off the DL before the deadline.  However, his $16MM price tag this year means that he would likely clear waivers and could be moved in August when he returns.  Both the Red Sox and Yankees have a need at 3B that might make Ramirez a good fit.

Michael Young - The Phillies aren't sure whether they should be buyers or sellers.  They're just 7.0 games behind the Braves despite being a game under .500 and they've won 6 of 10 recently.  They actually have a better record than the pre-season darling Washington Nationals.  For now, they're saying Young isn't available -- again, the Yankees and Red Sox have interest.  This is a case where the two wildcard system is likely keeping someone from selling.

Yovani Gallardo - Let's face it, the Brewers might as well punt now that Braun is out for the year and Gallardo is another name that is drawing some interest.  Gallardo isn't doing the Brewers any favors though by pitching like crap.

Not sensing a lot of enthusiasm over Yovani Gallardo despite 6.1 shutout IP last night. Two execs who were there called him a "4-5 starter"
— Jayson Stark (@jaysonst) July 21, 2013

Francisco Rodriguez - Lots of teams are after K-Rod, notably the Tigers, Red Sox and Dodgers.  The Tigers would possibly plug him in at closer.  He stills throws it at 93-94mph and has that sick slider.  His contract is a palatable $2.25 with some games played incentives.  Huston Street is a name that has come up for reliever-seekers as well. Althought a lot of Tigers fans seem to not want him:

Tigers interested in Huston Street. Because they lay up at night wondering how to screw up their bullpen."How can we waste Benoit again?"
— Patrick DiCaprio (@pdicaprioFP911) July 22, 2013

Jason Kubel - There are mild rumors out there about Kubel being moved; he's another guy that has played poorly this year and is hurting his trade value.  Unlike Morneau, he sucks equally both at home and away.  He might be a cheaper trade alternative to Alex Rios or god forgive me, Nate Schierholtz.  A mid-level reliever might get it done as AZ has stated they're looking for pitching.  The guy did hit 30 homers just a year ago.  Plus this:

Jason Kubel looks like Cheddar Bob from 8 mile
— Tyler Brown (@TBro323) July 20, 2013

Fun With WAR: AL's Best Players by Position at the All-Star Break

Here's a look a the top players by position at the All-Star Break for the American League.  I thought I'd do this mainly as an exercise to see how far off the Twins are at position from the best players.  I'll look at WAR and try and include offensive and defensive tidbits.  For these purposes I'll use Fangraphs.com's WAR calculation and ratings because they're much easier to pull into a report than B-R.

Catcher - Joe Mauer, Twins

The beauty of the catcher position is that there are only 7 that qualify with enough plate appearances for me to rank.  Two of them are actually Twins thanks to Doumit's multi-positional weirdness.  Mauer leads this group with a 3.9 WAR, with Houston's Jason Castro at #2 with a 2.3 WAR.  Carlos Santana is 3rd (1.7 WAR).  The best rated fielder is Matt Wieters with Mauer second.  Wieters threw out 17 of 39 base stealer guys.  Mauer's All-Star backup Salvador Perez had just a 1.4 WAR.

For numbers that people actually understand, Mauer led in hits (113), runs (50), AVG (320), OBP (402) and was .002 behind Castro in slugging at 473.  Blue Jays' catcher JP Arencibia hit 16 homers and Wieters had 44 RBI to lead those categories.    None of them stole more than a couple bases because they have knees like I do, only mine are from sitting on the couch.

First Base - Chris Davis, Orioles

This is a no brainer as Davis is right there with Cabrera for first half MVP.  "Crush" (not sure where I stand on that nickname yet...the beverage is delicious though) produced a 5.1 WAR, giving him a healthy lead over Edwin Encarnacion at #2 (2.7).  James Loney is a surprising #3 on the list with a 2.2 WAR.  Prince Fielder was way down at #11 (0.8) because he gets dinged on his poor defense.  Justin Morneau is #13 with a 0.6 WAR. 

Davis led AL first basemen in hits (108), HR (37), R (70), RBI (93), AVG (315), OBP (392) and SLG (717).  It was a clean sweep for him.  Just sick.  Loney tied him with the .315 average.  Encarnacion (25), Dunn (24) and Mark Trumbo (21) also cleared the 20 homer mark.  The best fielding rating belonged to Mike Napoli (6.2), which seems pretty weird.  Trumbo (4.9), Hosmer (4.7) and Loney (4.0) are also among top defenders.  The worst fielder was Mark Reynolds at (-7.8), with Fielder hot on his tail at -7.7. 

Second Base - Robinson Cano, Yankees

Cano is having another great year and led AL second basemen with a 3.8 WAR.  Dustin Pedroia and Jason Kipnis were right on his heels with 3.7 and 3.4, respectively.  Brian Dozier is 7th (1.5) thanks to his very good defense and base running ratings. Oh, and just to give you an idea how well no-batting-gloves Matt Carpenter is playing for the Cardinals in the NL; he has a 4.3 WAR.

Cano leads in homers (21), RBI (65) and slugging (531).  He's just average in fielding (0.4) and is actually a negative value in baserunning (-0.6).  Pedroia leads in hits (119), average (316), OBP (396), runs (57) and is just behind Omar Infante (5.1) in fielding with 5.0.  Kipnis leads in steals with 21, although somehow Zobrist gets the best base running rating with a 3.6.  Apparently he has a great UBR, which has something to do with how many extra bases he takes.

Third Base - Miguel Cabrera, Tigers (duh)

It's no surprise that last year's Triple Crown winner is on the top of the heap here.  What is amazing though is that he's nearing a second consecutive Triple Crown, which has never been done.  Blockhead Chris Davis is tripping him up right now in the homers and Davis is also right behind Cabrera in RBI.  There are some great AL third basemen this year with Cabrera (6.0 WAR), Evan Longoria (4.4), Josh Donaldson (4.3) and Manny Machado (4.2) at the top of the stack.  Poor Adrian Beltre is 6th despite hitting 316/358/543 with 21 homers.  Trevor Plouffe barely doesn't qualify, but if I lower the plate appearances standards a bit he clocks in at 8th with a 0.4 WAR.
As if you didn't know, Cabrera leads in everything with 365/458/674, 30 homers, 95 RBI and 73 runs.  Only 11 players had at least 30 homers and 95 RBI in all of 2012.  The best fielder is Manny Machado with a whopping +16 runs saved.  Our guy Plouffe is at -6.7, but Cabrera is worst at -11.9.  Miguel laughs at your defensive uber stats.  The best base runner besides utility guy Jayson Nix (2.5) is Kyle Seager (0.9). 

Shortstop - Derek Jeter  Jhonny Peralta, Tigers

Jhonny freaking Peralta is the best we have to offer at shortstop in the AL.  It's a motley crew where Mark Belanger would fit right in.  Peralta is actually hitting really well and providing average defense.  Funny that he's in better shape and playing so well in a contract year.  Peralta has a 2.7 WAR, Yunel Escobar is 2nd with a 2.3, Jed Lowrie is 3rd with a 1.8 and Pedro Florimon is tied with Alexei Ramirez for 4th with a 1.7!  JJ Hardy, who leads AL shortstops in homers (16) and RBI (52) is 6th with a 1.6 WAR because he doesn't walk and has a poor average.

Peralta leads shorstops in average (303) and slugging (447).  He's second to Lowrie (364) in OBP with a 361 mark.  Elvis Andrus leads in runs with 50 and is a +4.8 runs thanks to great base running.  Otherwise, he sucks the big one (0.6 WAR).  Nice signing, Texas.  Nice fantasy trade, WWWWWWWW. 
Florimon is the best fielder with a +9.0 runs; he's also a +2.8 base runner.  The worst fielder is Jed Lowrie (-7.9) and the worst base runner is Asdrubal Cabrera (-2.4).

Left Field - Alex Gordon, Royals

Alex Gordon is second to Mike Trout actually; Gordon has a 2.2 WAR and Kelly Johnson is third with a 1.8.  However, since 2/3 of Trout's games were in CF, we'll cover him there. There's a lot of sucky left fielders out there.  .224 hitting Josh Willingham is 14th with a 0.4 WAR.

Raul Ibanez leads left fielders with 24 homers, 578 slugging and 56 RBI.  Someone get some of that dude's pee ASAP.  Alejandro De Aza has the runs with 54.  Daniel Nava leads with a 288 average and a 374 OBP. Nate McLouth leads in steals with 24.  The best fielding LF is Andy Dirks with a +10.6; the worst is Daniel Nava at -9.5 splitting time between left and right field.  The best base runner is McLouth with a +3.6 runs; Melky Cabrera is the worst wtih a -3.3 tally.  Funny how Melky's numbers have dropped back to where he was at in his Yankee days after getting suspended 50 games for roiding.

Center Field - Mike Trout, Angels

Trout is cranking out another pretty great year; in relative silence because the rest of the Angels have been pretty sucky and Cabrera and Davis have been putting up massive power numbers.  His 5.7 WAR in the first half puts him on pace to exceed his MLB leading 10.0 WAR from last year. Colby Rasmus and Jacoby Ellsbury are tied for second at 3.5, Desmond Jennings and Brett Gardner are tied for fourth at 2.7 and Adam Jones is sixth with a 2.5 WAR.  Aaron Hicks is dead last at 15th with a 0.0 WAR.

Trout leads in AVG (322), OBP (399) and SLG (565).  Adam Jones leads in homers (19), runs (67) and RBI (67).  Ellsbury leads in steals with 36 and also is tops with a base running with a +8.7 runs.  The worst base runner in CF is Lorenzo Cain with a -0.5 runs.  Cain however, is the top fielder with a +11.8; De Aza is last at -7.9.

Right Field - Jose Bautista, Bleu Jays

Joey Bats!  His 3.0 WAR leads right fielders.  Shane Victorino is second with a 2.4 WAR; Zobrist is third with 2.2.  Torii Hunter leads in AVG (315) and OBP (352) unless we count Nava again.  Chris Parmelee isn't last!  He's second to last ahead of JD Martinez.

Nelson Cruz leads in homers (22), RBI (69) and SLG (517).  The only stat Bautista actually leads in is runs (61), but he's close in a number of categories.  The best fielder is Victorino, a converted center fielder, with +14.0; JD Martinez is worst with a -7.1 (again unless we count stone legs Nava).  Drew Stubbs is the best base runner (4.0) and Boom Stick Cruz is last with a -2.6.

Final Tally for the Twins:

C:  1st
1B: 13th
2B: 7th
3B: 8th
SS: 4th
LF: 14th
CF: 15th
RF: 14th

Twins Remain Delusional, Make no Moves at Trade Deadline

Aargh this is frustrating.  Once again, the Twins made no moves at the trade deadline (outside of the Liriano deal) despite being irrefutably out of playoff contention and having players other teams covet but who don't or shouldn't figure in the team's future plans - you know, the perfect combination to make a whole bunch of trades (see:  Astros, Houston).  Last season the team had Jason Kubel, Michael Cuddyer, and Joe Nathan (among others) who were all going to be free agents and all could have been traded away, yet none were.  I was frustrated but understood the thinking at least, given that the Twins would receive a draft pick for each once they signed somewhere else - that isn't the case this year.

There were reports of team's after Denard Span, Justin Morneau, Josh Willingham, Jared Burton, and Glen Perkins, and there was absolutely no reason to hold on to Morneau or Burton (and maybe not Perkins either, depending on your opinion of his future).  At this point the Twins need to realize they're at least two more years if not more away from contending and it's time to figure out who is going to be a part of this team when it comes back around, assuming it does, and then trade everybody else.  Span is still a pure leadoff hitter, and although he and Revere are somewhat redundant he's also signed to a very team friendly deal through 2015 so there's no reason to trade him unless a deal knocks you on your ass, which apparently the Reds didn't do today - although if you could get Homer Bailey and a couple good prospects I'd have pulled the trigger.  Willingham's kind of in the same boat, pretty much the team's only pure power hitter who is also signed to a great contract through 2014, so I get holding on to him too.  But the rest?

Morneau has a big contract, owed $14 million next year and a pro-rated $14 for the rest of this year so it might be a litter tougher to get full value back, but it was reported the Dodgers, Giants, and Blue Jays were all after him, but the Twins were asking for too much back, including a major leaguer in return and having the team that received Morneau pick up his entire contract.  Well guess what?  If you can't get that this year you sure as shit aren't going to get it next year when he's just going to be a two month rental for some team.  At least this year whatever team traded for him would get an entire year and change out of the deal.  Now?  They've basically gambled that he can get himself back to a $14 million a year player, at which point they won't be able to afford to resign him after his contract is up because they're hamstrung by the Mauer deal.  Best case scenario at this point is he plays out of his mind, walks, and they get a pick.  Well played, Terry Ryan.

And as for Burton and Perkins?  They're relievers.  Relievers pretty much grow on trees.  Reports are the Rangers were going after Burton and that "Perkins was in high demand today."  What?  For what reason would you possibly hold on to middle relievers when you aren't a contender?  Perkins, maybe, if you've decided he's your closer of the future (foolish, but it at least makes some sense) but Burton?  The average lifespan of a middle reliever on a team is 1.2 years, a figure I completely made up but it sounds right.  From year-to-year they're notoriously unreliable, and the odds Burton is on this team when they're back in contention are basically nil.  It just doesn't make a lick of sense.

Who on this team might possibly matter in the future?  Mauer, because they're stuck with him.  Span, Revere, Willingham, Dozier, Plouffe, and Parmelee?  I mean, I like Ryan Doumit quite a bit, but on a team like the Twins he's just a placeholder so if anybody comes sniffing around him (and it sounds like nobody did this year) he's another one who should be traded.  Diamond's pretty much the only starter worth penciling in your 2014 rotation, and between their lack of value and youth they'll obviously hold on to guys like DeVries, Deduno, Walters, and Hendriks, but pretty much everybody else needs to go and if they don't trade Carl Pavano at the waiver deadline I'm going to start making Molotov Cocktails.

There's no point to being shitty with old, crappy players who are going to be out of the league by the time you stop sucking.  The Astros have it figured out, trading Chris Johnson, Wandy Rodriguez, Brett Myers, Brandon Lyon, J.A. Happ, and Carlos Lee in the last month.  Basically everybody they knew wasn't a key building block or had no chance of developing into one.  The Pirates used this basic strategy for years, and are now in line to make the playoffs for the first time since Barry Bonds couldn't throw out Sid Bream.  Their leadoff hitter for most of this season (Jose Tabata) and one of their starters (Jeff Karstens) were acquired for Damaso Marte and Xavier Nady in 2008, their second guy off the bench and super utility man was acquired from the Cubs for two middle relievers in 2009, two other starters were acquired in the Nate McLouth trade (Charlie Morton) and Octavio Dotel trade (James McDonald), and they got their closer (Joel Hanrahan) for Lastings Milledge when they gave up on him.  They've also got great organizational depth thanks to the sheer volume of prospects and minor leaguers they've acquired.  Of course, it also helps that they've nailed the draft recently (Pedro Alvarez, Andrew McCutchen, Neil Walker, Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon, Starling Marte) but the point stands.

And of course, what do Dick and Bert open up tonight's broadcast with?  How glad they are nobody other than Liriano was traded.  Honest to god I think I'd rather have Hawk Harrelson's over-the-top homer shtick than this aw shucks folksy we love these boys bullshit these two keep slingin'.  No wonder the Twins' brass can get away with this, the announcers are feeding the fans this crap and they're eating it up based on what I've heard on the radio and read on the internet.  It's like some sort of crazy collective delusion where everybody thinks this team is team is thisclose to being a contender again - like a cult like those Waco guys or the Mormons or Dyson Vacuum Cleaner Owners.  Guess what, idiots?  This is the worst version of the Twins we've seen in our lifetimes.  FACT.  The 1981 and 1982 editions were a worse combo than 2011 and 2012, but I was too young to care or even realize what was going on, and outside of then this is the worst two year stretch in team history.  There is no quick fix.  When you need to burn your house down for insurance money and then build a new, better house you don't run around swapping out a few chairs for equally shitty, but different chairs - you burn that mother down with gasoline and a bazooka.  Like Beavis would.

Week in Review - 5/29/2012

I think I've solved the issue with the lack of content/posts on the site.  I've decided to bring in a partner.  TRE from www.stillgothope.com.  He's a pretty funny dude and a good writer, he's a Twins and Gopher fan, and this should increase the amount of Gopher football coverage on this site by eleventy billion percent.  He's already written one post, on a weekend no less, and basically called me stupid so he should fit in here just fine.  I've always thought I had a tougher road because I'm the only Gopher blog with only one writer and especially lately I haven't been bringing the quantity or quality, but now we don't have to worry about that anymore.  So welcome aboard, TRE.  If you suck you won't just be fired, you'll be killed.

WHO WAS AWESOME

1.  Justin Morneau.  His batting average last week was actually pretty crappy at .240, but of his 6 hits four of them were HR bombs which is a great sign, and his batting average on balls in play was just .125 which says he was pretty damn unlucky last week, outside of hitting the ball 1000 miles a few times.  If you remember last year, before captain softhead was put down for the season the big problem was that he wasn't hitting the ball with any kind of power.  His ISO (which is slugging-batting average and measures raw power without it being a function of a high average) was .106, which was less than half his career average and nowhere near what he usually does and was a huge reason many people, myself included, were wondering if perhaps the head injury had broken his brain enough where he had turned into a slap hitter.  Well I'm not really worried about that anymore.  Now I'm just hoping they can trade him for BOATLOADS.

2.  Stephen Strasburg.  I've never made it a secret that I'm desperately in love with the Stras but he's kind of like Natalie Portman and the more you learn about him the more you love him and now apparently he can hit, too.  No, I won't waste your time drooling over his pitching again because you already know he's basically unhittable, but after going 1-2 with a monster dinger and 2-2 in his last two games he's .389 this year with an OBP of .421, slugging of .722, and OPS of 1.143.  To put that in perspective he'd lead the Twins in every offensive category and it wouldn't even be fucking close which is actually pretty depressing.  I mean, it's probably a bit fluky considering he was 1-26 in his career before this year and was hitting just .143 six games ago, but since then he's gone 6-11 and four of those six hits have been for extra bases, plus he hit .400 in his (admittedly short) minor league career.  I guess what this really does is beg the question, "could Strasburg get Strasburg out?"  We should ask that tootsie pop owl guy, he seemed pretty sharp.

3.  Mike Stanton.   I'm not going to call him Giancarlo just because somebody tells me to even if it's this guy himself and even if there's a good reason.  I honestly don't know if there was a good reason because I didn't really pay attention and when I first saw the Giancarlo thing I wondered if they were brothers because I'm stupid but the point of this story is that Stanton destroyed the ball this week and even broke the scoreboard off Jamie Moyer (and watch him pimp this home run):

Dude's 22 years old and hitting .291 with 12 dingers already after hitting 34 last year and 22 in his half season rookie year.  Take notes, Twins' fans.  This is what we need to hope Sano is.

4.  Anaheim Angels.  Maybe it's stupid to write nice things about the Angels on the same day Jered Weaver gets pulled because of an injury after pitching to just three batters and getting none of them out, but the Angels seem like maybe they've kind of figured this shit out - finally.  Dan Haren, who had been knocked around all year by such horrendous offensive teams as the Twins and the Twins, finally looked like the Dan Haren we used to know by throwing a complete game shutout against Seattle with 14 whiffs (yes Seattle but still), Albert Pujols is hitting the ball again like a man, and Kendrys Morales is hot.  If they could figure out how to get Morales, Pujols, and Trumbo in the lineup at the same time or just trade one of them they'd be in better shape, but after a pretty lackluster start to the year they've won six straight, and even if it's against crappy teams like Oakland and Seattle it still counts and those teams are in their division too so it counts double.  Plus these guys used to lose to the Twins, so you know.

5.  Kevin Garnett.  I know he's probably always been an ass and he's definitely become an ass since he won that title with the Celtics, but for some stupid reason I find myself rooting for him, again, and he was probably the biggest reason Boston made the finals, because outside of game 4, KG was a monster in the entire series against the 76ers.  He outscored his season average in six of the seven games (averaged 19.7 vs. 15.8 reg season) and grabbed more boards in six as well (11.0 vs. 8.2) and shot 50% from the floor.  Basically he completely raised his game in a big spot, which is something I'm not sure he's ever done - or at least not very often.  I have a feeling KG, Jesus Shuttlesworth, and Pierce know this is probably their last shot since they all have been worn down like a porn star when she hits age 30.  Time for one last shot at glory, no reason to hold back now.  I also predict if they get bounced at some point KG loses his mind a decks somebody - probably Rondo.



WHO SUCKED

1.  Jason Marquis.  We all saw this coming, right?  I know it only cost $3 million or whatever, but what exactly was the point?  What was his upside?  He hasn't hit 150 innings since 2009, hasn't finished a year with an ERA under four since 2004, and gives up almost as many base runners as Nick Blackburn over the course of their careers.   Then he missed spring training, as understandable as that was, and jesus what a disaster.  An ERA of 8.47 and WHIP of 1.94 in his seven Twins' starts, which really shouldn't have been a surprise considering his performance in three starts after being traded to Arizona late last year, where he actually put up worse numbers than he did for the Twins (ERA 9.53, WHIP 2.29).  I know the Twins have a tendency to try to grab guys who are looked at as old and mediocre and sign them on the cheap and hope they get solid production, but lately it always seems to be a Marquis or a Tony Bautista or a Nishioka, and I can't remember the last time they hit on somebody but I'm gonna say Chili Davis.  That was 100 years ago.  That was the same year Dahmer was arrested and the Super Nintendo was released.  That's how long it's been since the Twins made a really good free agent signing (although Willingham seems promising at this point).  Chicks who were born that year can now go out and get drunk legally.  Kinda hot, now that you mention it.

2.  Hakeem Nicks.  Hakeem Nicks is one of my favorite receivers.  In our keeper league I took him with the 3rd overall pick his rookie year and everyone was like dude what?  and I was like, this guy is going to be a rock star.  And mostly I was right.  He's easily one of the most talented receivers in the entire NFL, and has put up over 1,000 yards each of the last two years.  But there's a minor problem - he's always hurt.  He has yet to play a full season (14, 13, and 15 games in his three years) and although he hasn't ever come up with a major injury that's kept him out an extended period of time he's always freaking dinged up to the point where you never know if you can put him in your lineup until like, right up until the game when they announce he's going to play and if he plays Monday night you end up starting somebody else like Mike Sims-Walker instead you sucks and then Nicks does well and you lose.  Sucks.  And now he's got a broken foot (suffered at an offseason workout for god's sake) and could be out up to 12 weeks which I'm not really sure when that is but it seems like it won't affect the season but whatever.  He's pissing me off.  I'm gonna trade him now.  If you're in my league and read this blog please ignore this entry and pretend I wrote something about Jamey Carroll instead.

3.  Chicago Cubs.  I heard something on the radio about how the Cubs won today and it was like their first win in the last 10 games.  Then I just looked it up and they did win today, but this was actually their first win in 13 games so it was even worse, which is kind of funny but makes sense because the Cubs suck and are still paying Alfonso Soriano ten trillion dollars and I can't guarantee it but I bet they're still on the hook for Zambrano as well.  So yeah, they're really bad.  Until today they hadn't scored more than four runs in nine straight games, which included four games with 1 or 0 runs.  Earlier this week the Cubs had 10 hits in a game against Pittsburgh but managed to not have an extra base hit and got shutout.  They also lost a game on a hit-by-pitch in the bottom of the ninth.  Things aren't going well.  But this will happen when you're counting on Brian LaHair as your clean-up hitter and Paul Maholm features prominently in your rotation.  Oh who am I kidding, I'd kill for Maholm on the Twins right now.  He'd be the freaking ace.

4.  Joe Blanton.  I've always disliked Joe Blanton and routinely bet against him.  He looks like a fat baby, he has one of those goatee things that's all shaggy but doesn't have the mustache part, and he's a right-handed junkballer with shitty stuff who can't break 90 but won a lot of games when the A's were good despite terrible stats and everybody thought he was good because most people are morons and now he's making $8 million per year.  And then it almost kind of looked like he had maybe figured it out this year with an ERA under 3 and at least 6 innings pitched in six of seven starts this year.  Then this week happened.  In games against St. Louis and Boston he never made it out of the fifth with a combined statline of 8.2 ips, 19 hits, 13 earned runs, and 6 homers to balloon his ERA to a much more Blanton-like 4.55.  It's kind of creepy how much better I feel now.

5.  Oakland A's.   I'm a Billy Beane fan and I mostly think the "moneyball" related criticisms of him are pretty ridiculous, but I just have no idea what that team is doing, and now they've lost six straight (including one to the Twins lolololol) and have gone 4-10 to suddenly drop off the map.  Mostly I'm just confused with how they're handling pitching.  Why trade Trevor Cahill when he's only 24 and looking like a future 2/3 type?  Why trade Gio Gonzalez at age 26?  Why trade Josh Outman (age 27) and Guillermo Moscoso (age 27) for Seth Smith who completely sucks?  Cahill and Gonzalez, especially, and they had just hit arbitration so they weren't looking at the big-time expensive franchise killing contracts yet (Mauer -> hi).  Beane used to make turning vets into prospects into an art form, but the A's won because Giambi, Tejada, Chavez, Hudson, Zito, Mulder, etc. were able to mature into great players before they were shipped out.  Seems now like those same types of guys are getting moved before they even have a chance to develop.  Can't win that way.  Moneyball?  More like Stupidball, amiright?

How to rebuild the Twins

 Although the Twins are pretty much hamstrung and stuck with Joe Mauer for the foreseeable future, that doesn't mean there aren't some moves they could make to try to rebuild quickly - which they'll have to do in order to become contenders again before Mauer is completely out of his prime assuming he isn't already.  Obviously the #1 priority should be the draft, where the Twins have the 2nd overall pick and three picks in the top 40.  I'd like to see them concentrate on high upside, college pitchers who won't have to spend 4-5 years in the minors, and I'd specifically like to see them draft Mark Appel out of Stanford or Kevin Gausman out of LSU with that #2 overall, then look at more pitching with picks 32 and 42.  Pitching-Pitching-Pitching.

Beyond that, there are some trades that need to be made.  Namely:


1.  Justin Morneau.  Contenders like the Marlins (who just sent Gaby Sanchez to the minors), Dodgers (who have crappy no power James Loney), Rangers (great offense with wasteland at 1B) and Blue Jays (who have given up on Adam Lind) all could use the power Morneau would provide at first base and all have the money to handle his contract, if they aren't too wary of his health issues.  Health issues and the big contract might mean his selling price is down, but a package of 3-4 players centered around one high upside prospect at a position of need would be a good move.  The Marlins have 3B Matt Dominguez in AAA and although he's not a great hitter he's supposed to be a plus fielder and let's face it, the Twins are pretty much out of 3B options.  The Rangers are loaded, including the minors, and that might make them willing to move future stud starting pitcher Martin Perez, who would give the Twins their first ace type pitcher since Johan.  The Dodgers system is loaded with starting pitching (with 8 of their top 10 prospects starters), and the Jays have enough young pitching that they could part with a semi-highly regarded pitching prospect or three without hurting their long term outlook.  Morneau is a great trade chip as long as he keeps hitting with power, and he's not going to be around by the time this time turns itself around - they need to use him to get the turnaround started.

2.  Denard Span.  I like Span and he's a quality leadoff hitter, but Ben Revere is a very similar player with less power, less discipline, and better defense, and the former two can develop with more time - time he's not getting.  The Nationals have been sniffing after Span for a couple of years now and were even willing, or close to willing, to give up a real young, real good reliever in Drew Storen last year.  I don't know that you can get a blue-chipper like that anymore, but the Nats are contending and are sorely lacking in the leadoff hitter department so they'd still probably love to have Span.  With all their young pitching maybe you can get a MLB ready, middle of the rotation type guy who is still young like Ross Detwiler.  Given Ramos's injury they need a catcher, so maybe throw-in Doumit and get a prospect back or even whichever second basemen they hate less, Steve Lombardozzi or Danny Espinosa - either would be a better 2b of the future than anything the Twins have right now.

3.  Carl Pavano.  I'd say trade the entire rotation, but I can't really see a team parting with anything other than "cash considerations" for anybody other than Pavano or Liriano, and trading Frankie when his value is at an all time low is probably not the right idea, so that leaves Pavano.  He's not exciting, but he's consistent, a decent big league pitcher, and somebody (or multiple somebodies) are going to be looking for that around the trade deadline (not to mention he's affordable).  All four AL East contenders have worse than average rotations so as that divisional chase heats up they're all going to be trying to outbid each other for pitching help, so depending on who else would be on the block Pavano could be near the top of their wishlists (although I don't know if the Yankees would be willing to bring him back).  He'd bring back less of a return than either Morneau or Span, but getting a mid-tier prospect or even a youngish player who is blocked on one of those teams would be worth looking into.

4.  Matt Capps.  I really don't know if anybody is stupid enough to "pull a Twins" and give up something of value for a shitty closer who has racked up saves in his career more out of opportunity than talent, but if anybody is willing to trade anything they should jump on it.  Same with Glen Perkins or really any other pitcher on the entire team.

Pull all that off, and maybe you're looking at a future of:

C - Mauer
1B - Miguel Sano (I'm guessing this is where he eventually ends up) with Parmalee backing him up
2b - Lombardozzi or Espinosa with Plouffe backing up
3b - Dominguez/Travis Harrison
SS - Levi Michael/Brian Dozier
OF - Revere/Benson/Hicks/Rosario/Arcia/Kepler
 with a rotation starting with Kyle Gibson, Appel/Gausman, and Detwiler with Baker/Diamond/Walters (if either of them is real)/other draft pick pitchers/Wimmers/Hudson Boyd/Madison Boer/Adrian Salcedo also in the mix and Deolis Guerra your top bullpen arm.

I dunno.  And that's not even counting in any other prospects that come back in trade other than Dominguez and the Nats' guys, although even though Dominguez is a 3b which the team sorely needs I'd still take Martin Perez over him if they have that option.

And yeah, I realize I'm just playing fantasy baseball basically, but the team is in the shitter and going nowhere, and you have exactly four tradeable assets so trade them.  None of them are going to be around when this team gets close to contending again, so trade them now while they have value.  Anything.  Just do something this year rather than sitting around with their thumbs up their asses like they did last year.  This is what I'd try to do. 

Wednesday Wonderings

Finally managed a little time to get some thoughts down on paper or whatever you want to call it cybernerd, so I better get to typing before it's too late.  Sorry for the lack of posts lately, but work has really been kicking the ever-loving shit out of me the last two weeks.  Hopefully things will calm down after this weekend

-  The biggest news is that Trevor Mbakwe is officially back.



Obviously this is huge as he was the team's best player a year ago before going down to injury, and with Sampson (thankfully) gone he gives the team another inside presence besides Elliott Elliason and takes a lot of pressure off of Mo Walker's return (what's up with him anyway?).  Hopefully Mbakwe (and Walker) will be back at full strength for the season, which gives the team three capable big men along with Rodney Williams who can clearly play the four when need be.  Rodney is also the biggest driver of how far this team can go.  Mbakwe's return will push him back out to the perimeter for stretches, and with him thriving this year more in the post than on the wing how what will that do to his development?

If Williams can develop a reliable jumper (how many years have we been saying this) and keeps the confidence he gained this season in going to the rim this team can be a monster.  I feel confident in saying Andre Hollins is a rising star, and him, Mbakwe, and the good Williams give this team three legitimate threats to dominate a game at any one time, whether for stretches or in total.  Add in the late season improvement of Elliason, Austin Hollins, and Joe Coleman and the Gophers should by all rights be a top 4 Big 10 team with Indiana, Ohio State, and Michigan.  Even without Mbakwe back they could have reached those heights with continued improvement, so expectations are high this year.

Of course, there's also the possibility that Williams still can't shoot and falls back into his old disappearing routine when Mbakwe is on the post.  I'd like to think any player capable of putting together the stretch of games Rodney did to finish out the year is incapable of completely regressing back to a full year ago's form, but I'm certainly not going to completely rule it out.  I have to say, without exaggeration, this looks to me like it could be the best Gopher team we've seen since Clem was framed and railroaded out of town.  I'm very interested to see how they break my heart into a million pieces this year.

-  Looking like Morneau is back, eh?  This Twins team keeps showing me just enough to keep me interested, which I guess I can't complain about since last year I was checked out by like June.  And yeah, maybe it's sad that locking up a guaranteed split is enough to get us all tingly in our nether parts and yeah, Matt Capps continues to be the worst pitcher in history (but at least he mixed in a couple non-fastballs this time), and yeah, there's no way this team can win without some kind of major shocker or something coming from the starting pitching, but you know what, I'm entertained so far.  No, I still can't tell you anything about the bullpen guys beyond Capps and Duensing, but I do at least know now that they have some guy named Burton, and that's a victory for the good guys.

-  If you've been reading this blog too long and have been keeping track of all the times I've been right (which shouldn't be too hard) you may remember this piece I posted on Zack Greinke back in May of 2010.  Greinke was coming off his historically awesome 2009 year and had gotten off to a slow start and, thanks to digging into some advanced metrics it was clear to me he wasn't the same pitcher and I traded him immediately in our fantasy league, which turned out to be the right move because he was basically a slightly above average pitcher in 2010.  Since I'm a genius, I will briefly look at Tim Lincecum since he's sucked this year and figure out if this is real or a mirage (I promise I'll be brief, this is a random thoughts post after all, not a Tim Lincecum post)

Red flag #1 is he stopped throwing his slider, I assume for arm health reasons but I tried to look it up and after 1 link that didn't say anything meaningful I was bored.  It's not always bad to give up a pitch if it's not working, but that slider was Timmy's second best pitch behind his change-up last year (although to be fair it's been mediocre through his career).  This can be fixed simply by throwing the slider again (he threw it 15% of the time last season), which I read he was going to start doing again.

Red flag #2 is an alarming drop in fastball velocity, from 92.3mph to 90.3mph.  This has resulted in fewer missed bats, particularly in the strike zone (batters make contact 93% of the time on balls in the zone this year compared to 84% last year).  This is resulting in a lot of line drives (29% compared to 19% in his career) and a greater number of fly balls going out of the park (17% of flyballs have been HRs this year compared to 8% in his career).

Unlike Greinke, however, I think Lincecum will be just fine.  Despite the above he's actually increased his strikeout rate while decreasing his walk rate, always a positive move for a pitcher.  He's also suffering from line drive rates and HR/flyball rates that would be historically bad, along with a BABIP of over .400 which would be the highest ever and is unsustainable.  Basically, unlike Greinke who had just faded a bit, you either believe Lincecum will right the ship and be just fine or you believe he's fallen off a cliff and is done.  I believe the former, and actually I think I'm going to go try to trade for him right now, brb.

-  Here are my thoughts on the NHL playoffs so far:

-  I find it interesting that although I like cheeseburgers, I find the very thought of cheeseburger pizza disgusting, while at the same time I love tacos and absolutely adore taco pizza.  Man I'm whacky. 

-  Finally, happy birthday to Wonderbaby^TM, four years old today and an awesome kid who loves gymnastics, baseball, The Legend of Zelda, and a whole bunch of girlie crap.  Hard to believe that when I started this blog I didn't even have a kid yet.  Wow, I've been doing this for a long time.  You'd think I would have gotten better at it at some point.

Twins Season Wrap - Corner Infielders

I'm going to lump 1st and 3rd together because I'm starting to realize if I really do this one position at a time I'm probably going to kill myself.  I'm going to start with 3b because that's a little more clear cut - and it really comes down to if you believe Danny Valencia is the long-term solution or not.

After last season when Valencia finished 3rd in R.O.Y. voting and OPS+ed 117 optimism was high.  Sure, his BABIP was unsustainably high but he had a little pop, looked like he could hit, and was a plus fielder both quantitative and qualitatively so it looked good.  Then this year his fielding suddenly turned poor, he was a constant victim of mental lapses on a near Lew Fordian level, and all his numbers dipped slightly, hurt by a low BABIP.  Basically we've seen 2 seasons of Valencia and they were complete opposites.

Because I'm not a psycho with an agenda it seems obvious to me that the truth is somewhere in the middle.  I suspect Valencia is a slightly above average third baseman in every way - hitting and fielding, even if his baserunning sometimes makes me laugh like I'm at a Dane Cook show but I'm really just laughing out of pity.  I would be completely ok with, and would actually recommend, the Twins roll out Valencia for at least another year.  He's never been a great hitter, at least not since A ball, but he's been good enough the whole way through the minors and in his first 2 years with the big club, and really what's the other option?  Luke Hughes?  I like Hughes, but he's basically a younger Matt Tolbert with slightly more power and smaller nostrils.  No, this needs to be Valencia's job until Miguel Sano's ready, and that's at least 3 years from now.  Maybe less since Latin American birth records are always so accurate.

Now that that's settled we move on to first base, maybe the most confusing position on this team.  You've got a part-time catcher in Mauer, a full-time outfielder who might not even be there next year in Cuddyer, and a prospect who has fallen out of favor but now looks good.

Cuddy is obviously not your answer so we'll wait to address him when I talk outfielders, so in my mind it comes down to either making Mauer your full-time 1B or giving the job to Parmalee.  I talked enough about Mauer's batting skills in my catcher rundown, so we'll just jump to Parmelee.

Frankly, I like him.  And I have no idea why I qualified that with frankly.   He's an interesting case because he was a high pick who looked like he'd be a high power, low average guy throughout his early minor league career.  Then a few years ago he started trending in the opposite direction with his average raising and his power dipping, and I read somewhere that I'm too lazy to go find that the Twins basically told him to cut down on his swing and hit for higher average, something they love to do to anybody who shows any power (ask David Ortiz or J.J. Hardy).  Now that he's hit the majors yes his average is way up there (very high BABIP at .385) which is nice, but even better is he's taking a good amount of walks and showing a power bat once again.

There's a stat called "isolated power" which is calculated as slugging-average, and is meant to show a batter's power while taking out those whose slugging percentage is inflated due to a high average coming from a lot of singles.  Parmelee is at .194 so far this year, which is his highest number since A ball in 2008 and is second amongst all Twins behind just Jim Thome (and, if you ignore PA requirements, Scott Baker which is LOL).  It's not exactly elite to be a leader in power on the Twins, but with enough at-bats he'd rank 26th in the AL in that stat, ahead of guys like Nick Swisher and B.J. Upton - not elite, but guys with some pop.  No doubt, he's hit the ball well.

In the most simple terms, Parmelee has looked good in his call-up and deserves the chance to be the everyday first baseman next season.  Hopefully Mauer can catch more often than not and DH as well rather than taking the full-time first base spot from him.  I don't know that I'm buying in that Parmelee can be anything more than an average first base bat but he has potential, and looking at the other options, both in the majors and minors, he's really all they have.  The free agent crop looks either to be well out of the Twins price range (Fielder, Pujols if he hasn't signed yet) or Tony Batista, let's throw money at someone and hope they pan out types (Xavier Nady, Ross Gload, Brad Hawpe, Lyle Overbay).  The only remotely interesting guy on the list is Nick Johnson and he spent all this year in Cleveland's minor leagues and managed to hit just .200.  Still, I say they go with Parmelee as the starter and offer Johnson a minor league deal and hope for the best.  Not that different than the Nady/Hawpe group, but Johnson should be ultra cheap and is a worthwhile gamble unless there's something going on with him I'm not aware of.

Much like the catcher position for next year, things look confusing with a side of depressing.

I'm a terrible blogger

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