Busy week, and that doesn't even count college basketball kicking off on Friday (yay!). Speaking of, I should do like, a mini preview here of UMKC, the Gophers' opponent for a game I cannot attend. And then Louisiana-Monroe since that game is Sunday (and I am going). Man I have a lot of work to do.
UMKC: The Kangaroos are kind of interesting and not just because they are called the Kangaroos. They finished second in the WAC last season and return the Conference Player of the Year in Martez Harrison. They lose most everyone else, but Harrison is apparently good enough that the Roos are projected to finish fourth this year. They started last season with a bang, knocking of Missouri, but then did nothing after. Hopefully they avoid a big win to start the season this time.
Looking at Harrison, it looks like he does it correctly. He gets his 17.5 points per game mainly at the rim, on 3 pointers, and at the line. Although the shooting percentage isn't great at just 39%, he's at least taking good shots - on paper. Should be a fun guy to watch. He scored 26 against Missouri and 21 against Kansas StatePlus they have a dude named Shayok Shayok, and that's always fun.
LOUISIANA-MONROE: ULM also has a fun name, the Warhawks. And, like the Kangaroos, the Warhawks should finish near the top of their conference, in this case the Sun Belt. The Warhawks were a pretty good defensive team last season and they have most of the squad back so they should be annoying again. They play slow and they play tough, and that will certainly be a worthwhile early season test for the crappy Gophers.
Where ULM sucks is shooting, and boy do they suck. They're the suckiest bunch of sucks who ever sucked. As a team last year they hit under 30% from 3 and 46% from 2. They were alright on free throws, but that didn't matter because they never got to the line - dead last in terms of FTs per FGA, to be specific. Four guys took over 100 3pointers last season and they shot 24%, 35%, 39%, and 28%. So yeah, they're terrible.
So these are two games the Gophers definitely need to win and should win, but both will present some challenges. Probably. I don't know. Who knows what we're getting from this team this year?
Next, the Twins were busy! First they submitted the winning bid of $12.85 for the exclusive negotiating writes with Byung Ho Park of the Korean League. He's 29, so you're gonna get what you're gonna get, but he hit 105 home runs over the past two seasons and sources say that's a lot of home runs. He hit .343 last season, has an OPS of .951 over his career, and averaged 85 walks over the past four seasons. I mean, dude can hit in the Korean League. How does that translate, is the question. If you're cringing a bit because you can't help but think back on Tsuyoshi Nishioka you're not the only one. He put up a .346/.423/.482 line in Japan in 2010, signed with the Twins, and proceed to hit .215/.267/.236 over two seasons so yeah, I'm a bit wary of dudes changing leagues.
One positive data point is Jung Ho Kang of the Pirates who was a teammate of Park's. Kang put up a .356/.459/.739 line in Korea, then came over and hit .287/.355/.461 which is very solid. His homers dipped from 40 in the KBL to 15 in MLB, which is something to keep in mind with Park as well, but Kang should finish 2nd or 3rd in NL Rookie of the Year (behind Kris Bryant) and if the Twins can get similar from Park that's a nice pick up.
Although Park's last season was his best, he's OPSed over 1.000 each of the last three and his career numbers (.281/.387/.564) are very good and he's pretty consistently showed power where's Kang's 40 homers kind of came out of nowhere. If I was in the projection business, I'd probably peg him somewhere around his career numbers with a slight dip in OBP and SLG (maybe .280/.340/.520) with somewhere around 25 homers. I will take that all day.
Then the Twins traded Chris Herrmann to the Diamondbacks for Daniel Palka. Herrmann was sort of terrible so trading him is fine. Palka lands on most D-Backs prospect lists somewhere around 30, so he's probably a good return for Herrmann. He hit .280/.352/.532 last season at high A ball, with 29 homers and 24 steals - good numbers. He's another 1B and OF type with contact issues that seem to litter the Twins minor leagues, but hey, eventually one of them will work out and all they gave up was Herrmann. Groovy.
Finally, the Twins made my brother very angry and traded Aaron Hicks to the Yankees for catcher John Ryan Murphy, a much bigger deal of a trade the first one. Hicks famously had two brutal seasons breaking into the bigs, but last year seemed to be figuring things out and was almost a league average hitter. Given his above average defense and speed, it's a calculated gamble getting rid of him now, however, and I realize how absurd this is even before I type it, the Twins have too many options in the OF so it makes sense to move someone now if he has even a little bit of value, especially if they don't think Hicks is going to live up to his potential. Hopefully we don't have a Carlos Gomez 2.0 situation on our hands here.
Murphy was ranked the Yankees #6 prospect prior to 2014, and hit .277/.327/.406 last year, good enough for an OPS of .734, which would have ranked him ninth among all catchers with at least 400 PAs last season, and well above the .610 Kurt Suzuki, excuse me All-Star Kurt Suzuki, flailed his way to last year. Those numbers are pretty well in line with his minor league career stats, and despite the lack of power (he'll hit about 5-10 homers in a full season) they're serviceable enough considering it sounds like Murphy is an above average defensive catcher, though not a star.
Overall I hate trading Hicks, but the move makes sense in a lot of ways, and that's not even getting into how much money they would end up throwing at either Matt Wieters or some terrible old player like A.J. Pierzynski (who I love) in order to get a decent starting catcher since Suzuki sucks now. Let's just hope Murphy is that decent starting catcher.
Showing posts with label Twins. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Twins. Show all posts
Wednesday, November 11, 2015
Wednesday, October 21, 2015
Oh. Hello.
It has been a long damn time since I posted. A month. Not dead, just lazy. I do plan to be back full force once Gopher basketball gets going, I really do. For now, since at least 1 person is asking for a new post, I'll write something.
- Welcome aboard, Eric Curry! Quickly following up the Amir Coffey signing (yay!) the Gophers also picked up forward Eric Curry. He's a combo type forward from Arkansas, and while he's not ranked on Coffey's level he's well regarded in his own right: ranking #106 by 247sports national composite and the #21 ranked power forward. He ended up besties with Coffey and once Amir signed Curry was pretty likely to follow in what hopefully becomes a trend.
He's described as a combo forward, which generally means he's either too fast for PF and too strong for SF or too weak for PF and too slow for SF. Hopefully the former and it sounds good so far. Scouting reports tout his athleticism and he's already got a decent amount of polish posting up which will be a nice change for a Gopher team that hasn't had a true post up artists since, I dunno, Ralph Sampson I guess. Before you jump all over that remember Ralph had some moves. Curry's other highly touted attribute is his "high motor" which means the Sampson comparisons can pretty much end now.
His weaknesses are he needs to get stronger and he needs more of a perimeter game. Well, he's a high school senior right now, and I'm pretty sure the ESPN scouting report just rubber stamps "must get stronger" on early every recruit because that's a pretty common and understandable need. The perimeter game should come around because, get this, he's a 78% free throw shooter. Sign him up!
- The Twins season ended, you may have learned, and I struggle whether or not to say this was a successful season though I lean towards yes. We got to watch some meaningful baseball almost all the way to the final day of the season - that's good! Then again, they cratered and didn't get the Wildcard spot - that's bad! Though, they probably weren't as good as their record anyway - that's bad! But we got to see a glimpse of many of the future hopefully building blocks of future success - that's good! So I'll stick with slightly good. Here's some other Twins stuff:
1. Say good-bye to Trevor Plouffe. I found some sight the other day that gave projected arbitration salaries for players, and Plouffe is guessed at $7.7 million. I like Plouffe and he's a decent player who works hard and seems like a good dude and was part of some very bad teams without complaint, but at that salary, with Miguel Sano slated to be the third baseman for the next billion years, the world's most unmovable contract stuck at 1st, and a slew of younger, cheaper bats that need DH appearances and spot starts there's nowhere for him to play. Whether via trade or simply non-tendering him I just can't see him sticking around, which is unfortunate because he's WonderBaby (who is now 7)'s favorite player, though she calls him Treasure Poof.
2. Do the Twins need an ace? More on the need for an ace later, if I feel like and/or remember, but I don't think this is doable. They've tossed way too much money at Ricky Nolasco, Ervin Santana, and Phil Hughes lately to really go after it, unless they were going to pony up the big bucks and do it right by going after David Price or Jordan Zimmermann or something but I don't see that happening. With Hughes, Santana, Kyle Gibson, and a slew of young arms worth trying out I'm not even sure they need to do anything with the starting staff (but the bullpen? Fire everybody). There are enough decent names out there that if they can get a steal (a real steal, like that 2/$20 million contract the Cubs gave Jason Hammel) then it might be worth it. But please, no 4 year deal for Jeremy Guthrie. Please.
3. Overall the future here seems pretty neat. They need a catcher and a shortstop for sure and those are not very easy to fill so hopefully dudes who are already here can fill those roles, but other than Brian Dozier's second half cratering things seem pretty clear. I hated the Torii Hunter signing when it happened because that money could have been better spent, but hell, maybe there is something to clubhouse chemistry and veteran leadership. I'd be happy to see him back at a reduced rate assuming he's cool being the 4th outfielder at best. Next year should be pretty fun. Looking forward to it.
- Seems like we are heading towards a Royals vs. Mets World Series. I'm good with that. Of the playoff teams you had teams that were too successful (Cardinals), too evil (Yankees), too rich (Dodgers), too big of assholish fans (Toronto), too unlikable (Rangers), too it hurts because it should have been us (Astros), and the Pirates, Cubs, Royals, and Mets, and you have to eliminate the Cubs because the whole Back to the Future thing is already more irritating the constant DFS commercials.
- Wolves should be pretty fun. Rubio-LaVine-Wiggins-Towns-Dieng. Could be a lot worse, right? At least it should be fun. A legit shot at back-to-back Rookie of the Year winners, finding out if LaVine can be like, good, and seeing if Rubio can stay healthy is a good reason to at least occasionally watch. I mean, Rubio running a break with those two wings and Towns trailing? That's awesome.
And how good can Towns be? Rookie of the Year is pretty much a lock, the only question is can he challenge for MVP. I say yes. Did you see him hitting those threes against no defense this offseason? I mean, most guys can't do that. And have you seen his preseason stats? Averaging 10.7 pts, 6.7 rebs, and 1.0 blocks per game, but that's only in 21 minutes per game! If you extrapolate that out to a whole game it comes out to something like 35 pts, 18 rebounds, 9 assists, and 7 blocks per game. You know the last player to put up those kind of numbers? Yep, that's right - Hot Sauce. Towns is that good.
- I know what you're thinking - "this blog sucks now." But I know what else you're thinking, why is there no mention of this year's Gopher hoops team? Well, I'm not ready yet. I'll rip something off at some point, but right now it's like, no. I am not ready to write about Joey King just yet, and I don't really know how to spin the Bakary Konate/Gaston Diedhiou stuff into a positive, nor can I figure out how to look forward to Carlos Morris being a big key to the season. I'll get around to it, I swear. For now, let me write something quick about other NCAAB stuff.
- ACC is going to be garbage, relatively speaking. Only North Carolina looks poised to be good. Duke lost everybody and will now count on Grayson freaking Allen, Virginia I'm pretty sick of already so move on, Louisville lost literally their entire roster, Notre Dame without Jerian Grant is meaningless. Miami and FSU could be semi-interesting but in general I'm expecting the Big 10 to take the challenge thing.
- LSU is one of my big sleepers and you can still get them at 50/60-1 to win the National Championship. Yes, they lost Jordan Mickey and Jarrell Martin, but they have a ton of guard play coming back and two absolute stud recruits in do everything big man Ben Simmons (likely #1 pick in next year's draft) and swingman Antonio Blakeney (who is now linked to the Louisville "scandal"). There are a lot of questions about the front court, though Simmons can maybe do it all, but all those guards back and a monster recruiting class scream contender to me.
- Another team I like a lot is Cal (don't worry, Justin Cobbs is gone). They pick up the #4 and #7 players in the entire country, both front court guys, who join their three best players, all guards. Add in Cuonzo Martin, a really, really good coach, and you'd be a fool to pass them up at 20-1. A FOOL!!
- I might end up doing a Big Ten preview post, and if I do I promise I won't be like every other writer and say something like "based on talent the Badgers shouldn't be this high, but Bo Ryan blah blah blah barf" No! This is the year the Badgers suck ass. They are gutted. They have Nigel Hayes, who I love and is awesome, Bronson Koenig, who is annoying and super hateable and sucks, and that's it. All of their other players suck. They won't be bottom of the basement, but there's zero chance this team makes the NCAA Tournament. None. Zero. None.
- A Big Ten team I do like a ton this year is Purdue, though that seems like a not uncommon thought. And their games are going to suuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuck to watch. Massive rim protection in A.J. Hammons and Isaac Haas (Hammons is elite, Haas is 7-2 so should get there eventually) is joined by 6-9 Caleb Swanigan, one of the top couple center recruits in the country, and Raphael Davis is back who, you surely don't remember this, won B10 defensive player of the year. They also couldn't shoot for shit last year and there's no real reason that should change. I fully expect multiple games where they win without breaking 50 points.
- Oh yeah, speaking of points we have a new shot clock now at 30 seconds. Even better though they got rid of the 5-second closely guarded rule. I'm not sure if that's a positive change as far as the game goes, but it's going to be super fun to go to games this year and hear morons yell "5 seconds!" one billion times because nobody reads anymore. Also, speaking of going to games, Snacks and I were lining up our trip out to Sioux Falls with our sons to go check out the Gophers vs. Oklahoma State game and then right as we were figuring stuff out bam, it turns out my parents' have this dumb christmas party that same day where we are supposed to be blackjack dealers or something. Thanks a lot, mom and dad.
- Perry Ellis, the 37-year old Kansas power forward, is back for another year. He has now surpassed Wade Lookingbill, Jess Settles, and Brian Cardinal for longest tenured player in college basketball history.
- I don't know. I guess that's all for now.
- Oh yeah. Also Rick Pitino 100% knew there were sex parties for recruits and also that happens at every single school. Haven't you seen He Got Game?
- Welcome aboard, Eric Curry! Quickly following up the Amir Coffey signing (yay!) the Gophers also picked up forward Eric Curry. He's a combo type forward from Arkansas, and while he's not ranked on Coffey's level he's well regarded in his own right: ranking #106 by 247sports national composite and the #21 ranked power forward. He ended up besties with Coffey and once Amir signed Curry was pretty likely to follow in what hopefully becomes a trend.
He's described as a combo forward, which generally means he's either too fast for PF and too strong for SF or too weak for PF and too slow for SF. Hopefully the former and it sounds good so far. Scouting reports tout his athleticism and he's already got a decent amount of polish posting up which will be a nice change for a Gopher team that hasn't had a true post up artists since, I dunno, Ralph Sampson I guess. Before you jump all over that remember Ralph had some moves. Curry's other highly touted attribute is his "high motor" which means the Sampson comparisons can pretty much end now.
His weaknesses are he needs to get stronger and he needs more of a perimeter game. Well, he's a high school senior right now, and I'm pretty sure the ESPN scouting report just rubber stamps "must get stronger" on early every recruit because that's a pretty common and understandable need. The perimeter game should come around because, get this, he's a 78% free throw shooter. Sign him up!
- The Twins season ended, you may have learned, and I struggle whether or not to say this was a successful season though I lean towards yes. We got to watch some meaningful baseball almost all the way to the final day of the season - that's good! Then again, they cratered and didn't get the Wildcard spot - that's bad! Though, they probably weren't as good as their record anyway - that's bad! But we got to see a glimpse of many of the future hopefully building blocks of future success - that's good! So I'll stick with slightly good. Here's some other Twins stuff:
1. Say good-bye to Trevor Plouffe. I found some sight the other day that gave projected arbitration salaries for players, and Plouffe is guessed at $7.7 million. I like Plouffe and he's a decent player who works hard and seems like a good dude and was part of some very bad teams without complaint, but at that salary, with Miguel Sano slated to be the third baseman for the next billion years, the world's most unmovable contract stuck at 1st, and a slew of younger, cheaper bats that need DH appearances and spot starts there's nowhere for him to play. Whether via trade or simply non-tendering him I just can't see him sticking around, which is unfortunate because he's WonderBaby (who is now 7)'s favorite player, though she calls him Treasure Poof.
2. Do the Twins need an ace? More on the need for an ace later, if I feel like and/or remember, but I don't think this is doable. They've tossed way too much money at Ricky Nolasco, Ervin Santana, and Phil Hughes lately to really go after it, unless they were going to pony up the big bucks and do it right by going after David Price or Jordan Zimmermann or something but I don't see that happening. With Hughes, Santana, Kyle Gibson, and a slew of young arms worth trying out I'm not even sure they need to do anything with the starting staff (but the bullpen? Fire everybody). There are enough decent names out there that if they can get a steal (a real steal, like that 2/$20 million contract the Cubs gave Jason Hammel) then it might be worth it. But please, no 4 year deal for Jeremy Guthrie. Please.
3. Overall the future here seems pretty neat. They need a catcher and a shortstop for sure and those are not very easy to fill so hopefully dudes who are already here can fill those roles, but other than Brian Dozier's second half cratering things seem pretty clear. I hated the Torii Hunter signing when it happened because that money could have been better spent, but hell, maybe there is something to clubhouse chemistry and veteran leadership. I'd be happy to see him back at a reduced rate assuming he's cool being the 4th outfielder at best. Next year should be pretty fun. Looking forward to it.
- Seems like we are heading towards a Royals vs. Mets World Series. I'm good with that. Of the playoff teams you had teams that were too successful (Cardinals), too evil (Yankees), too rich (Dodgers), too big of assholish fans (Toronto), too unlikable (Rangers), too it hurts because it should have been us (Astros), and the Pirates, Cubs, Royals, and Mets, and you have to eliminate the Cubs because the whole Back to the Future thing is already more irritating the constant DFS commercials.
So really, Royals and Mets gives me probably two of my top three choices (with the Pirates). And yeah sure, the Mets are terribly run organization and the Royals are kind of dickish and have the most clueless manager in the playoffs, but you're never going to get perfect. It should be fun and I won't be annoyed no matter who wins. What's wrong with that? Plus the less R.A. Dickey there is to watch, the better. Though I will really miss watching Kyle Schwarber play outfield.
And I'm determined to do a live blog of at least one World Series game. I think I have almost every year, so I can't just stop now.
And I'm determined to do a live blog of at least one World Series game. I think I have almost every year, so I can't just stop now.
- Wolves should be pretty fun. Rubio-LaVine-Wiggins-Towns-Dieng. Could be a lot worse, right? At least it should be fun. A legit shot at back-to-back Rookie of the Year winners, finding out if LaVine can be like, good, and seeing if Rubio can stay healthy is a good reason to at least occasionally watch. I mean, Rubio running a break with those two wings and Towns trailing? That's awesome.
And how good can Towns be? Rookie of the Year is pretty much a lock, the only question is can he challenge for MVP. I say yes. Did you see him hitting those threes against no defense this offseason? I mean, most guys can't do that. And have you seen his preseason stats? Averaging 10.7 pts, 6.7 rebs, and 1.0 blocks per game, but that's only in 21 minutes per game! If you extrapolate that out to a whole game it comes out to something like 35 pts, 18 rebounds, 9 assists, and 7 blocks per game. You know the last player to put up those kind of numbers? Yep, that's right - Hot Sauce. Towns is that good.
- I know what you're thinking - "this blog sucks now." But I know what else you're thinking, why is there no mention of this year's Gopher hoops team? Well, I'm not ready yet. I'll rip something off at some point, but right now it's like, no. I am not ready to write about Joey King just yet, and I don't really know how to spin the Bakary Konate/Gaston Diedhiou stuff into a positive, nor can I figure out how to look forward to Carlos Morris being a big key to the season. I'll get around to it, I swear. For now, let me write something quick about other NCAAB stuff.
- ACC is going to be garbage, relatively speaking. Only North Carolina looks poised to be good. Duke lost everybody and will now count on Grayson freaking Allen, Virginia I'm pretty sick of already so move on, Louisville lost literally their entire roster, Notre Dame without Jerian Grant is meaningless. Miami and FSU could be semi-interesting but in general I'm expecting the Big 10 to take the challenge thing.
- LSU is one of my big sleepers and you can still get them at 50/60-1 to win the National Championship. Yes, they lost Jordan Mickey and Jarrell Martin, but they have a ton of guard play coming back and two absolute stud recruits in do everything big man Ben Simmons (likely #1 pick in next year's draft) and swingman Antonio Blakeney (who is now linked to the Louisville "scandal"). There are a lot of questions about the front court, though Simmons can maybe do it all, but all those guards back and a monster recruiting class scream contender to me.
- Another team I like a lot is Cal (don't worry, Justin Cobbs is gone). They pick up the #4 and #7 players in the entire country, both front court guys, who join their three best players, all guards. Add in Cuonzo Martin, a really, really good coach, and you'd be a fool to pass them up at 20-1. A FOOL!!
- I might end up doing a Big Ten preview post, and if I do I promise I won't be like every other writer and say something like "based on talent the Badgers shouldn't be this high, but Bo Ryan blah blah blah barf" No! This is the year the Badgers suck ass. They are gutted. They have Nigel Hayes, who I love and is awesome, Bronson Koenig, who is annoying and super hateable and sucks, and that's it. All of their other players suck. They won't be bottom of the basement, but there's zero chance this team makes the NCAA Tournament. None. Zero. None.
- A Big Ten team I do like a ton this year is Purdue, though that seems like a not uncommon thought. And their games are going to suuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuck to watch. Massive rim protection in A.J. Hammons and Isaac Haas (Hammons is elite, Haas is 7-2 so should get there eventually) is joined by 6-9 Caleb Swanigan, one of the top couple center recruits in the country, and Raphael Davis is back who, you surely don't remember this, won B10 defensive player of the year. They also couldn't shoot for shit last year and there's no real reason that should change. I fully expect multiple games where they win without breaking 50 points.
- Oh yeah, speaking of points we have a new shot clock now at 30 seconds. Even better though they got rid of the 5-second closely guarded rule. I'm not sure if that's a positive change as far as the game goes, but it's going to be super fun to go to games this year and hear morons yell "5 seconds!" one billion times because nobody reads anymore. Also, speaking of going to games, Snacks and I were lining up our trip out to Sioux Falls with our sons to go check out the Gophers vs. Oklahoma State game and then right as we were figuring stuff out bam, it turns out my parents' have this dumb christmas party that same day where we are supposed to be blackjack dealers or something. Thanks a lot, mom and dad.
- Perry Ellis, the 37-year old Kansas power forward, is back for another year. He has now surpassed Wade Lookingbill, Jess Settles, and Brian Cardinal for longest tenured player in college basketball history.
- I don't know. I guess that's all for now.
- Oh yeah. Also Rick Pitino 100% knew there were sex parties for recruits and also that happens at every single school. Haven't you seen He Got Game?
Friday, August 28, 2015
Is Eddie Rosario, like, Good?
As you are probably aware, the Twins are fighting for a playoff spot while at the same time showing us a glimpse of their future with a whole lot of younger players up and making contributions. One of these is Eddie Rosario, who has used a good mix of hitting, fielding, and base running to end up ranked 4th on the team in WAR. You may now be asking yourself why I would question if he is, like, good in that case. Well, unfortunately there are some red flags. They might not necessarily mean much or call him out as a fluke, but there are some things to worry about.
Rosario has put up a slash line of .274/.296/.452 so far this season. Two of those numbers are respectable, but that awful OBP is bad enough to drag his OPS down to almost exactly the league average. That's his red flag #1 - horrendous strike zone management.
He has 87 strikeouts this season against just 11 walks, which is pretty staggering. His walk rate of 3.2% is the 6th worst in baseball among batters with at least 300 plate appearances, while his strikeout rate of 25.1% is the 34th worst. The spread of nearly 22 percentage points is monstrous. I could only find a few instances of other players with a similar spread, and they were either slap hitters (Chris Owings) or only ended up with that kind of spread because they strike out an absolute ridiculous amount (Randal Grichuk). The good news is that both his rates are worse than what he put up in his minor league career so although he's always going to be a free swinger these extremes may just be growing pains.
His swing rate is the worst on the team (outside of Oswaldo Arcia), but his contact rates are ok - not great, but ok. Interestingly it turns out major league teams aren't dumb, because less than half the pitches he sees are inside the strike zone and his percentage is the lowest on the team other than Kennys Vargas and Jorge Polanco. Basically teams are throwing him bad pitches, he's swinging at those pitches, and he's missing those pitches. Until he reigns in his hacking a bit that'll continue, and although you can have success being a free swinger it's much more difficult when you aren't getting anything to hit. Keep an eye on this.
His second red flag, although not as big of one in my opinion, is his BABIP of .347, a generally unsustainable number. Unlike last year's fluke Danny Santana, however, it's not that huge of an outlier based on his past. His minor league BABIPs were almost always over .300 and he put up a few seasons in the .350 range, so though .347 is probably high it's not ridiculously high. His line drive percentage isn't great and he pops up too much, but he has an excellent hard hit percentage which can help account for a greater than it should be BABIP.
Overall, Rosario is going to be a quality player. The value he adds with his defense alone makes him a plus player, and advanced metrics (and the eye test) mark him as an excellent fielder both in terms of range and arm. He's fast and a good base runner (base runs mark him as 2nd on the team behind Brian Dozier at things like taking the extra base) and his stolen base mark should get better with more experience. How good he's going to be is going to depend on his bat, and that's going to depend on learning a bit more plate discipline. I think he'll adjust in Year 2+, and he's going to be a fixture in the outfield for a long time.
Or at least I hope. Wow. Optimism. Feels weird.
Rosario has put up a slash line of .274/.296/.452 so far this season. Two of those numbers are respectable, but that awful OBP is bad enough to drag his OPS down to almost exactly the league average. That's his red flag #1 - horrendous strike zone management.
He has 87 strikeouts this season against just 11 walks, which is pretty staggering. His walk rate of 3.2% is the 6th worst in baseball among batters with at least 300 plate appearances, while his strikeout rate of 25.1% is the 34th worst. The spread of nearly 22 percentage points is monstrous. I could only find a few instances of other players with a similar spread, and they were either slap hitters (Chris Owings) or only ended up with that kind of spread because they strike out an absolute ridiculous amount (Randal Grichuk). The good news is that both his rates are worse than what he put up in his minor league career so although he's always going to be a free swinger these extremes may just be growing pains.
His swing rate is the worst on the team (outside of Oswaldo Arcia), but his contact rates are ok - not great, but ok. Interestingly it turns out major league teams aren't dumb, because less than half the pitches he sees are inside the strike zone and his percentage is the lowest on the team other than Kennys Vargas and Jorge Polanco. Basically teams are throwing him bad pitches, he's swinging at those pitches, and he's missing those pitches. Until he reigns in his hacking a bit that'll continue, and although you can have success being a free swinger it's much more difficult when you aren't getting anything to hit. Keep an eye on this.
His second red flag, although not as big of one in my opinion, is his BABIP of .347, a generally unsustainable number. Unlike last year's fluke Danny Santana, however, it's not that huge of an outlier based on his past. His minor league BABIPs were almost always over .300 and he put up a few seasons in the .350 range, so though .347 is probably high it's not ridiculously high. His line drive percentage isn't great and he pops up too much, but he has an excellent hard hit percentage which can help account for a greater than it should be BABIP.
Overall, Rosario is going to be a quality player. The value he adds with his defense alone makes him a plus player, and advanced metrics (and the eye test) mark him as an excellent fielder both in terms of range and arm. He's fast and a good base runner (base runs mark him as 2nd on the team behind Brian Dozier at things like taking the extra base) and his stolen base mark should get better with more experience. How good he's going to be is going to depend on his bat, and that's going to depend on learning a bit more plate discipline. I think he'll adjust in Year 2+, and he's going to be a fixture in the outfield for a long time.
Or at least I hope. Wow. Optimism. Feels weird.
Tuesday, August 18, 2015
What the Hell are the Twins gonna do at Shortstop?
The Twins hit the back stretch of the season, somewhat limping and hovering around .500 and 2.5 games back of the second Wild Card spot. There are two ways to look at this season. The first is that the team overachieved and could never have sustained their early season success, but a .500ish year and semi-meaningful games with an outside shot at a surprise playoff appearance a year ahead of schedule (a .500 would clear their Vegas over/under on wins by 12 games) is pretty damn neato. The second is to say that the Twins were running away with the division and collapsed, and the season is a failure. Obviously, the first way is correct and the second way is for morons.
The other success of this season is you can see the future starting to take shape. Not so much the pitching side which has too many questions for even me to try to answer, but the position players? It's happening.
There's little doubt that the opening day outfield next year will be Byron Buxton, Aaron Hicks, and Eddie Rosario (and that should be a damn good fielding unit). Miguel Sano will have third locked down, and Brian Dozier is going to be at second for a while. 1B/DH is going to be some combination of Joe Mauer, because we're stuck with him, Trevor Plouffe, if they keep him around - he has value and they control him for two more years but he's getting spendy, and Kennys Vargas, if he remembers how to hit. Ideally Oswaldo Arcia does the same and becomes the fourth outfielder with some DH time as well. Catcher goes to Kurt Suzuki unfortunately for another year, and then the hope is either Josmil Pinto or Chris Herrmann step up. It's a nice solid start to team. But what the hell are they gonna do at shortstop?
They have three current options - Danny Santana, Eduardo Escobar, and Eduardo Nunez. They're all young and under team control so they'll probably get plenty of chances, but I don't see a full time shortstop here anywhere. Santana flashed a solid rookie year, finishing 7th in AL Rookie of the Year voting, but had all the warning signs of a fluke which came to fruition this year. In his 256 plate appearances in the majors this year he OPSed just .541, 3rd worst in all the majors, and rocked a 66-5 strikeout to walk ratio. I covered Escobar here, coming to the conclusion that his upside, last year, was adequate at best, and his downside, this year, is a crappy utility guy. Nunez seems to have moved into the starters role by default, but there's nothing there to suggest he's anything other than a replacement level utility guy, which he has been for his six big league seasons.
So what's next? Look at any Twins' top prospect list and you'll see two names, and only two names - Nick Gordon and Jorge Polanco. Gordon was picked just last year out of high school so he's probably not going to be ready until 2018 at the earliest, so it's Polanco or bust. And I'm really not sure how to feel about that.
He's certainly looked good in his limited time in the majors, slashing .313/.450/.500 with 4 walks and 3 strikeouts in 20 plate appearances and Fangraphs has him as a better than average defensive shortstop. All positive signs. His career line of .288/.349/.406 in the minors is alright, but more impressive is his 269 strikeouts to 182 walks, which shows that unlike a lot of shortstops he's not a complete hacker up there.
So what's the problem? No power at all. Zero. None. That .406 slugging over his minor league career would be one of the lower numbers in the majors this year, and if you look at his ISO, which strips out a high average influencing from influencing slugging, he's put up Ben Revere type numbers each of the last two seasons, only without the speed.
I'm not saying he's terrible or can't develop into more of an all around player. He hit very well in rookie and A ball, with some power, and he's only 21 and already at AAA with two flashes in the big leagues and he's pretty much hit for a high average everywhere. I'm fully rooting for him, it's just amazing to me that all the eggs have to be in this basket, but there's nobody else. Levi Michael was supposed to be the shortstop of the future, but he was drafted out of college in 2011 and is still stuck at AA so I don't think we can really count on him any more, especially since he has less power than Polanco.
Considering the free agent market looks pretty bare at the position for the next couple years we should all be huge Jorge Polanco fans and hope he gets to the majors, for good, sooner rather than later. Help us, Jorge Polanco, you're our only hope.
The other success of this season is you can see the future starting to take shape. Not so much the pitching side which has too many questions for even me to try to answer, but the position players? It's happening.
There's little doubt that the opening day outfield next year will be Byron Buxton, Aaron Hicks, and Eddie Rosario (and that should be a damn good fielding unit). Miguel Sano will have third locked down, and Brian Dozier is going to be at second for a while. 1B/DH is going to be some combination of Joe Mauer, because we're stuck with him, Trevor Plouffe, if they keep him around - he has value and they control him for two more years but he's getting spendy, and Kennys Vargas, if he remembers how to hit. Ideally Oswaldo Arcia does the same and becomes the fourth outfielder with some DH time as well. Catcher goes to Kurt Suzuki unfortunately for another year, and then the hope is either Josmil Pinto or Chris Herrmann step up. It's a nice solid start to team. But what the hell are they gonna do at shortstop?
They have three current options - Danny Santana, Eduardo Escobar, and Eduardo Nunez. They're all young and under team control so they'll probably get plenty of chances, but I don't see a full time shortstop here anywhere. Santana flashed a solid rookie year, finishing 7th in AL Rookie of the Year voting, but had all the warning signs of a fluke which came to fruition this year. In his 256 plate appearances in the majors this year he OPSed just .541, 3rd worst in all the majors, and rocked a 66-5 strikeout to walk ratio. I covered Escobar here, coming to the conclusion that his upside, last year, was adequate at best, and his downside, this year, is a crappy utility guy. Nunez seems to have moved into the starters role by default, but there's nothing there to suggest he's anything other than a replacement level utility guy, which he has been for his six big league seasons.
So what's next? Look at any Twins' top prospect list and you'll see two names, and only two names - Nick Gordon and Jorge Polanco. Gordon was picked just last year out of high school so he's probably not going to be ready until 2018 at the earliest, so it's Polanco or bust. And I'm really not sure how to feel about that.
He's certainly looked good in his limited time in the majors, slashing .313/.450/.500 with 4 walks and 3 strikeouts in 20 plate appearances and Fangraphs has him as a better than average defensive shortstop. All positive signs. His career line of .288/.349/.406 in the minors is alright, but more impressive is his 269 strikeouts to 182 walks, which shows that unlike a lot of shortstops he's not a complete hacker up there.
So what's the problem? No power at all. Zero. None. That .406 slugging over his minor league career would be one of the lower numbers in the majors this year, and if you look at his ISO, which strips out a high average influencing from influencing slugging, he's put up Ben Revere type numbers each of the last two seasons, only without the speed.
I'm not saying he's terrible or can't develop into more of an all around player. He hit very well in rookie and A ball, with some power, and he's only 21 and already at AAA with two flashes in the big leagues and he's pretty much hit for a high average everywhere. I'm fully rooting for him, it's just amazing to me that all the eggs have to be in this basket, but there's nobody else. Levi Michael was supposed to be the shortstop of the future, but he was drafted out of college in 2011 and is still stuck at AA so I don't think we can really count on him any more, especially since he has less power than Polanco.
Considering the free agent market looks pretty bare at the position for the next couple years we should all be huge Jorge Polanco fans and hope he gets to the majors, for good, sooner rather than later. Help us, Jorge Polanco, you're our only hope.
Tuesday, August 4, 2015
Is Eduardo Escobar, like, good?
I was hoping the Twins would do something at the trade deadline, and they did. I was hoping they'd get bullpen help, and they did. So I suppose I'm happy with what they did. They couldn't really have done much more without gutting the future, and considering their performance since the trade deadline it looks like an every better decision to mostly stand pat. I was hoping they'd find a way to upgrade shortstop, but the two instant starters who may have been available are both expensive and have question marks (Jose Reyes and Starlin Castro) so whatevs. With Danny Santana back in the minors, it looks like Eduardo Escobar is the new shortstop, and may be for a while considering there's no readily available replacement unless Santana turns it around. So is Eduardo Escobar, like, good?
Current slash line: .239/.270/.380. Yikes. Down considerably from last year's decent .275/.315/.406. His OPS of .651 ranks him 19th in the majors among shortstops with at least 250 plate appearances - better than I would have guessed (and better than Castro). Considering Santana ranked dead last, that's manageable. Both his walk and strikeout rates are career worsts this year, and this approach change probably also accounts for his dip in BABIP from a career number .308 to .294 (it was .336 last year) and his line drive rate has plummeted from 24% to 17.8%. Both numbers are considerably worse than his career numbers, so we can hope he's just having a bad year.
One thing I've always liked about his bat is he's got some pop compared to your average shortstop. He ranks 8th in ISO (slg-avg) among shortstops with 250+ PAs, and that number has increased each of the last two years. He's also 16th in extra base hits, despite having a hundred plate appearances fewer than almost every shortstop ahead of him. Overall, he's a complete free swinger who refuses to walk and has a little bit of pop for his position. He's only 26, so his bat probably gets a passing grade, though it would be nice if he could revert back to last year's version.
He's a horrendous base stealer. He's gone 6 for 12 in his career and 2 for 5 this year, and it's probably best for everyone at this point if he just stops doing it. Though that would probably give Dan Gladden a heart attack. Seriously you ever listen to this guy on the radio? He's completely obsessed with the running game. It's maddening. Speaking of, Escobar is a pretty good base runner outside of not being able to steal base if a small child was catching. Well, actually this year he rates dead average, but last year he was slightly goodish. This is according to UBR at Fangraphs which takes note of such things as going from 1st to 3rd on a single or scoring from 1st on a double and stuff like that. Makes sense. Yet another regression from Escobar.
Last season, Escobar's fielding (at shortstop) was above average according to Ultimate Zone Rating. This year, however, like everything else it's plummeted to terrible. Granted defensive metrics aren't perfect, but considering he's on pace to make about 40% more errors than last season I can buy it. This year his UZR ranks 36th out of 40 shortstops with at least 210 innings played at SS (just ahead of Danny Santana). Last year he ranked 14th.
So what do we have? A player who would have been a competent starter last season who has been pretty rough this year. Add it all up and he's gone from 2.5 WAR last year down to -0.7 this year. Considering Santana is -1.2 he's an upgrade, but a disappointment at the same time. Last year WAR put him as the #14 shortstop in the majors. This year he's at the bottom, ahead of only Santana and Castro. Yuck.
Considering he's 26 years old and under team control through 2018 there's considerable reason for the Twins to hope he can be the new shortstop of the future. Not to mention the free agent market for shortstops is garbage. Last year he looked like he had a chance. This year, however? No, he's not good. Hopefully they don't rush Jorge Polanco.
Current slash line: .239/.270/.380. Yikes. Down considerably from last year's decent .275/.315/.406. His OPS of .651 ranks him 19th in the majors among shortstops with at least 250 plate appearances - better than I would have guessed (and better than Castro). Considering Santana ranked dead last, that's manageable. Both his walk and strikeout rates are career worsts this year, and this approach change probably also accounts for his dip in BABIP from a career number .308 to .294 (it was .336 last year) and his line drive rate has plummeted from 24% to 17.8%. Both numbers are considerably worse than his career numbers, so we can hope he's just having a bad year.
One thing I've always liked about his bat is he's got some pop compared to your average shortstop. He ranks 8th in ISO (slg-avg) among shortstops with 250+ PAs, and that number has increased each of the last two years. He's also 16th in extra base hits, despite having a hundred plate appearances fewer than almost every shortstop ahead of him. Overall, he's a complete free swinger who refuses to walk and has a little bit of pop for his position. He's only 26, so his bat probably gets a passing grade, though it would be nice if he could revert back to last year's version.
He's a horrendous base stealer. He's gone 6 for 12 in his career and 2 for 5 this year, and it's probably best for everyone at this point if he just stops doing it. Though that would probably give Dan Gladden a heart attack. Seriously you ever listen to this guy on the radio? He's completely obsessed with the running game. It's maddening. Speaking of, Escobar is a pretty good base runner outside of not being able to steal base if a small child was catching. Well, actually this year he rates dead average, but last year he was slightly goodish. This is according to UBR at Fangraphs which takes note of such things as going from 1st to 3rd on a single or scoring from 1st on a double and stuff like that. Makes sense. Yet another regression from Escobar.
Last season, Escobar's fielding (at shortstop) was above average according to Ultimate Zone Rating. This year, however, like everything else it's plummeted to terrible. Granted defensive metrics aren't perfect, but considering he's on pace to make about 40% more errors than last season I can buy it. This year his UZR ranks 36th out of 40 shortstops with at least 210 innings played at SS (just ahead of Danny Santana). Last year he ranked 14th.
So what do we have? A player who would have been a competent starter last season who has been pretty rough this year. Add it all up and he's gone from 2.5 WAR last year down to -0.7 this year. Considering Santana is -1.2 he's an upgrade, but a disappointment at the same time. Last year WAR put him as the #14 shortstop in the majors. This year he's at the bottom, ahead of only Santana and Castro. Yuck.
Considering he's 26 years old and under team control through 2018 there's considerable reason for the Twins to hope he can be the new shortstop of the future. Not to mention the free agent market for shortstops is garbage. Last year he looked like he had a chance. This year, however? No, he's not good. Hopefully they don't rush Jorge Polanco.
Sunday, June 21, 2015
Hey Some Sports Stuff Happened
Some of you who still actually read this blog have noticed I haven't posted in a while. Mostly because I was driving across the country to Utah with my wife and two idiot kids. We covered more than 2,500 miles and traveled in Minnesota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Wyoming, and Utah over the last 15 days, spending nights in 3 different hotel rooms and 2 different condos. We saw Mount Rushmore, the black hills (freaking gorgeous), a bunch of cool Mountains and stuff, swam in 3 different pools, saw some dinosaurs, a moose, a bunch of antelope, and more cows and horses than you could ever want. We drove through a true ghost town (like, a bunch of buildings and nobody living there), Deadwood (Billy the Kid died there), went through the world's biggest drug store (Wall Drug in Wall, SD) and a town with a sign advertising population 15. I drank vodka tonics out of a sports bottle at the pool, boxed wine out of a paper cup in a pitch black hotel room while the kids slept, and snuck beer in the garage at a mormon birthday party.
- The big news is that Gopher commit Jarvis Johnson will not be medically cleared to play for the Gophers due to his heart condition. This on the heels of another commit, Jonathan Nwankwo, not getting clearance to play due to some indeterminate academic issue. So what the hell is going on here? This isn't the first time the basketball team has run into issues with the admissions office - recall Djuan Piper or Gaston Diedhiou, just in the last year. Honestly I'm pretty tired of it.
I get that the University of Minnesota is among the top academic schools in the country - US News ranked it #71 in its Top Academic Universities in the nation list - and that's cool. I mean, I like seeing the U up there on that list, much better than being someone like UNLV who received a "Rank not Published" because they were so bad. The problem is, if you want to be an athletically relevant school sometimes you have to bend the rules a bit. Duke ranks #5, but William Avery, who seemed like a complete dope, got in there because he could ball. USC ranks #22 and I'm pretty sure O.J. Mayo is a moron. Georgetown ranks #20 and they let in Kenny Brunner, who ended up trying to kill somebody with a god damn samurai sword.
Look, I'm not an idiot. If there's a danger to Jarvis, and unacceptable danger, then sure, hold him out, of course. The kid's safety is paramount here so I'm not necessarily bashing this decision, just the overall state of the admissions department which seems to constantly be at odds with the basketball program. I know you can't let in some degenerate who can't read, but Nwankwo landed at VCU, which may not have the lofty academic status of the U but it still ranked in the top 200. Come on already. The Gopher athletic program will never rise to top tier status if the rest of the University actively works to hold it down. Admitting some borderline or slightly worse than borderline students who can ball the fuck out isn't going to put a black eye on the school. This program is cursed, and the tight ass admissions people sure as hell aren't helping.
And, if you'll allow me to be human for a moment, this has to just suck for Jarvis. The kid just had his dream pulled out from underneath him. Despite the report that he and his family were kind of blindsided by this it doesn't appear at this time that he's looking to transfer. That makes me think there's some legit shit going on here and not some kind of conspiracy - nobody wants another Hank Gathers situation. This is really the wrong issue to start railing on the U's admissions department because this one might make sense, it's just the latest in a series of setbacks so it's a little bit of burnout here. Ugh. Just sick of it.
- The Twins started their regression with a 2-9 stretch, but have bounced back with a 3-1 stretch and still sit at 37-31 and second place in the AL Central. I pretty much expect this kind of thing. Most likely they'll play around .500 ball the rest of the year and end up staying in contention for a Wild Card berth and things will stay interesting. I'm pretty excited about that, though it's a negative also. If the Twins hang around in contention it means guys who should probably be trading this year, especially Trevor Plouffe since his value is probably at an all-time high right now, won't be.
Hey I like Plouffe, I'm a big fan and my kid has some big giant face thing of his. But his numbers are better than how he's actually playing and it's unlikely a 29 year old suddenly hit his peak, he's a free agent after this year, and the best prospect in the system other than Buxton is a 3B. He's prime trade material. Not to mention Mike Pelfrey, who they better not resign/extend because he is terrible no matter what his fluky ERA is.
Of course, it's intoxicating to think about the playoffs, too. If they can just get in, anything can happen. Who knows how this shakes out, the Twins could end up buyers or sellers, but most likely they'll stand pat and that's probably the right move. Of course, when you're about to get a pitcher like Ervin Santana back that's as good as making a trade anyway.
Some other Twin things:
- Byron Buxton is here! He picked up his third career hit today, but that 2-20 start wasn't exactly encouraging especially since other prospects on his level have produced so far this year (Kris Bryant, Joey Gallo, Carlos Correa). With all the traveling and stuff I've only seen one of his at-bats and he looked fine (despite striking out) so it's hard to know if he's overmatched right now or if it's just bad luck so far, but we can look into some nerd stats to get an idea.
First thing that stands out is a BABIP of .143. Essentially no matter how much a batter may be struggling that is completely non-sustainable (the lowest BABIP for anyone in 2014 was .231 by Brian McCann). His strikeout rate is a kind of scary 33%, but it's not all that surprising considering he's been around 25% his first year at each level. His 7.7% line drive rate and 21.4% hard hit rate both suggest he's making terrible contact when he does hit the ball, however, and that's not good. His swing rate is a little high and his contact rate a little low, but nothing too concerning.
There's plenty to like here still. His speed and defense give him value even when his bat might not, and I have to believe his bat will come around simply because he's always hit and also because I have to believe it. Give him time. Nothing to panic about. Right?
- I'm pretty bummed about Danny Santana. I know the .405 BABIP pegged him as pretty much an automatic regression candidate, but he had a really good line drive rate so I thought you know, maybe. But the line drive rate has gone down, the K rate has gone up, and the walk rate has completely disappeared leading to an embarrassing .525 OPS, second worst in the majors among hitters with at least 185 PAs. Couple that with Eduardo Escobar's hot start and sending him down was pretty much a no brainer. Escobar's cooled off now, however, and Santana is crushing at Rochester (.370/.412/.543) so he'll be back up, and hopefully he'll be all straightened out.
- I don't know if anyone has noticed, and by that I mean I think everyone has noticed, but Joe Mauer has been worth -0.5 WAR this season, meaning he's worse than replacement level. Meaning you take some shlub like Chris Colabello or Chris Parmelee or whoever the equivalent would be right now in AAA and plug him in and he'd give you more than Mauer. Mauer, who is currently getting paid $23 million to completely suck at an offensively premium position. His slugging and OPS are both the worst in the American League among first basemen with enough at bats to qualify for the batting title, which means he's playing one of the most traditional power positions without supplying any power (or anything offensively, really).
His walk rate has slipped to a career worst as well, so you can't even point to his OBP (a pedestrian .329, 70 points or so lower than his career number) and say "well, at least he's getting on base." His "soft contact" percentage is the worst it's ever been, and he's already popped up in the infield twice this year. You can say that doesn't sound like much, and in some cases it isn't, but from 2011-2014 he only popped up a total of two times - not a misprint.
I don't know where to go from here. He's making $23 million per year through 2018 so he's impossible to trade unless you include something extremely premium or pick up a lot of his salary, which is pointless. The only way he's remotely tradeable is if he ups his production level, which seems unlikely since his 2009 season, the one which got him that big contract, was a complete outlier. His 28 homers that year were more than double his next best year. His batting average was nearly 40 points better than his second best year. His ISO was 60 points higher, his WAR over 2 wins better than any other year in his career, and his HR/FB was almost double any other season. Just a complete fluke.
At this point, as frequent commenter and long time reader RGHrbek mentioned in the comments, he's blocking Kennys Vargas, who needs at-bats. He could end up blocking Plouffe or Miguel Sano's move to first, and by taking up one of the 1B/DH spots he's also blocking Josmil Pinto's development. Seriously, if you could only have two of the three out of Vargas, Mauer, and Plouffe, don't you take Vargas and Plouffe? Mauer needs to be traded just to free up playing time for the younger dudes, but he's completely untradeable so here we are. Hopefully he can turn it around and give the team a little average and on base skills if nothing else. Oh and he's completely horrid defensively too, don't forget. Neat stuff.
- If you have kids go see Inside Out. It was pretty awesome.
Yeah that'll do for now.
Best of all, my kids got to spend time with their grandparents and spent 9 full days with their cousins who are about the same age and whose mom is their mom's sister and best friend and they loved every minute of it. There were many tears when we left, and my daughter vowed to be pen pals with her cousin while my son wailed "but we can't leave cousin Ike is my best friend!!!!" I dreaded doing this before we started (even though I knew it was something we should do). Yes, there were moments where it got difficult (like when the bridge in Wyoming was washed out and we had to back track 50 miles, or when the road in Wyoming was washed out and we had to go out of our way by about 130 miles), but the kids held on and were troopers despite a couple 12 hour days in the car and it was a fantastic trip all around. We will definitely do it again in a few years. And I'm going to dread every moment leading up to it.
Any way, there was some sports stuff that happened. Also Wyoming can go right to hell.
I get that the University of Minnesota is among the top academic schools in the country - US News ranked it #71 in its Top Academic Universities in the nation list - and that's cool. I mean, I like seeing the U up there on that list, much better than being someone like UNLV who received a "Rank not Published" because they were so bad. The problem is, if you want to be an athletically relevant school sometimes you have to bend the rules a bit. Duke ranks #5, but William Avery, who seemed like a complete dope, got in there because he could ball. USC ranks #22 and I'm pretty sure O.J. Mayo is a moron. Georgetown ranks #20 and they let in Kenny Brunner, who ended up trying to kill somebody with a god damn samurai sword.
Look, I'm not an idiot. If there's a danger to Jarvis, and unacceptable danger, then sure, hold him out, of course. The kid's safety is paramount here so I'm not necessarily bashing this decision, just the overall state of the admissions department which seems to constantly be at odds with the basketball program. I know you can't let in some degenerate who can't read, but Nwankwo landed at VCU, which may not have the lofty academic status of the U but it still ranked in the top 200. Come on already. The Gopher athletic program will never rise to top tier status if the rest of the University actively works to hold it down. Admitting some borderline or slightly worse than borderline students who can ball the fuck out isn't going to put a black eye on the school. This program is cursed, and the tight ass admissions people sure as hell aren't helping.
And, if you'll allow me to be human for a moment, this has to just suck for Jarvis. The kid just had his dream pulled out from underneath him. Despite the report that he and his family were kind of blindsided by this it doesn't appear at this time that he's looking to transfer. That makes me think there's some legit shit going on here and not some kind of conspiracy - nobody wants another Hank Gathers situation. This is really the wrong issue to start railing on the U's admissions department because this one might make sense, it's just the latest in a series of setbacks so it's a little bit of burnout here. Ugh. Just sick of it.
- The Twins started their regression with a 2-9 stretch, but have bounced back with a 3-1 stretch and still sit at 37-31 and second place in the AL Central. I pretty much expect this kind of thing. Most likely they'll play around .500 ball the rest of the year and end up staying in contention for a Wild Card berth and things will stay interesting. I'm pretty excited about that, though it's a negative also. If the Twins hang around in contention it means guys who should probably be trading this year, especially Trevor Plouffe since his value is probably at an all-time high right now, won't be.
Hey I like Plouffe, I'm a big fan and my kid has some big giant face thing of his. But his numbers are better than how he's actually playing and it's unlikely a 29 year old suddenly hit his peak, he's a free agent after this year, and the best prospect in the system other than Buxton is a 3B. He's prime trade material. Not to mention Mike Pelfrey, who they better not resign/extend because he is terrible no matter what his fluky ERA is.
Of course, it's intoxicating to think about the playoffs, too. If they can just get in, anything can happen. Who knows how this shakes out, the Twins could end up buyers or sellers, but most likely they'll stand pat and that's probably the right move. Of course, when you're about to get a pitcher like Ervin Santana back that's as good as making a trade anyway.
Some other Twin things:
- Byron Buxton is here! He picked up his third career hit today, but that 2-20 start wasn't exactly encouraging especially since other prospects on his level have produced so far this year (Kris Bryant, Joey Gallo, Carlos Correa). With all the traveling and stuff I've only seen one of his at-bats and he looked fine (despite striking out) so it's hard to know if he's overmatched right now or if it's just bad luck so far, but we can look into some nerd stats to get an idea.
First thing that stands out is a BABIP of .143. Essentially no matter how much a batter may be struggling that is completely non-sustainable (the lowest BABIP for anyone in 2014 was .231 by Brian McCann). His strikeout rate is a kind of scary 33%, but it's not all that surprising considering he's been around 25% his first year at each level. His 7.7% line drive rate and 21.4% hard hit rate both suggest he's making terrible contact when he does hit the ball, however, and that's not good. His swing rate is a little high and his contact rate a little low, but nothing too concerning.
There's plenty to like here still. His speed and defense give him value even when his bat might not, and I have to believe his bat will come around simply because he's always hit and also because I have to believe it. Give him time. Nothing to panic about. Right?
- I'm pretty bummed about Danny Santana. I know the .405 BABIP pegged him as pretty much an automatic regression candidate, but he had a really good line drive rate so I thought you know, maybe. But the line drive rate has gone down, the K rate has gone up, and the walk rate has completely disappeared leading to an embarrassing .525 OPS, second worst in the majors among hitters with at least 185 PAs. Couple that with Eduardo Escobar's hot start and sending him down was pretty much a no brainer. Escobar's cooled off now, however, and Santana is crushing at Rochester (.370/.412/.543) so he'll be back up, and hopefully he'll be all straightened out.
- I don't know if anyone has noticed, and by that I mean I think everyone has noticed, but Joe Mauer has been worth -0.5 WAR this season, meaning he's worse than replacement level. Meaning you take some shlub like Chris Colabello or Chris Parmelee or whoever the equivalent would be right now in AAA and plug him in and he'd give you more than Mauer. Mauer, who is currently getting paid $23 million to completely suck at an offensively premium position. His slugging and OPS are both the worst in the American League among first basemen with enough at bats to qualify for the batting title, which means he's playing one of the most traditional power positions without supplying any power (or anything offensively, really).
His walk rate has slipped to a career worst as well, so you can't even point to his OBP (a pedestrian .329, 70 points or so lower than his career number) and say "well, at least he's getting on base." His "soft contact" percentage is the worst it's ever been, and he's already popped up in the infield twice this year. You can say that doesn't sound like much, and in some cases it isn't, but from 2011-2014 he only popped up a total of two times - not a misprint.
I don't know where to go from here. He's making $23 million per year through 2018 so he's impossible to trade unless you include something extremely premium or pick up a lot of his salary, which is pointless. The only way he's remotely tradeable is if he ups his production level, which seems unlikely since his 2009 season, the one which got him that big contract, was a complete outlier. His 28 homers that year were more than double his next best year. His batting average was nearly 40 points better than his second best year. His ISO was 60 points higher, his WAR over 2 wins better than any other year in his career, and his HR/FB was almost double any other season. Just a complete fluke.
At this point, as frequent commenter and long time reader RGHrbek mentioned in the comments, he's blocking Kennys Vargas, who needs at-bats. He could end up blocking Plouffe or Miguel Sano's move to first, and by taking up one of the 1B/DH spots he's also blocking Josmil Pinto's development. Seriously, if you could only have two of the three out of Vargas, Mauer, and Plouffe, don't you take Vargas and Plouffe? Mauer needs to be traded just to free up playing time for the younger dudes, but he's completely untradeable so here we are. Hopefully he can turn it around and give the team a little average and on base skills if nothing else. Oh and he's completely horrid defensively too, don't forget. Neat stuff.
- If you have kids go see Inside Out. It was pretty awesome.
Yeah that'll do for now.
Thursday, May 28, 2015
Welcome Aboard, Davonte Fitzgerald (and a look at an underrated reason the Twins are good)
Just a little Gophers and Twins update, since they rule.
- The Gophers closed out the 2015 recruiting class, again, by picking up 6-7 forward Davonte Fitzgerald, a transfer from Texas A&M. Fitzgerald, a sophomore, will sit out 2015-2016 and will have two years of eligibility remaining. It seems a lot of people hate this signing. Let's look at why so I can tell you why you're wrong.
1. Taking a player from TAMU is taking a player from a crappy team/conference. The SEC has been down lately, sure, and Texas A&M hasn't made the NCAA tournament since 2011. Some of this argument makes some sense. But recall, prior to missing the tournament in 2012 the Aggies had gotten invited six years in a row and their down years coincided with Mark Turgeon's jump to Maryland. Billy Kennedy has the program rising with an NIT bid last season and a CIT bid the year before. Now they're poised to take a pretty big jump with the #6 ranked recruiting class in the country coming in per ESPN and they're also returning their top 3 scorers from last year. Texas A&M isn't a juggernaut or a blue blood, but I'd be hard pressed to claim Minnesota is a better program.
2. He wasn't very good. Mainly this is from people who see he averaged 3.5 points per game as as sophomore and are like omg this guy blows lol. What they miss, of course, is he averaged 7.3 ppg in just 15 minutes per game as a freshman and basically played the second unit instant offense role - until he tore his ACL in February. He came back last year and the season was pretty much a loss, which is why his average points per game was down by half. After averaging 16 minutes per game as a freshman he only reached that mark six times all last season. If you're the type who thinks that's probably because he suddenly sucked, well, you're probably an idiot. By the time he gets to see the court for the Gophers he'll be over two years clear of that injury. That's probably good, because he was good.
Coming out of high school Fitzgerald was a Top 200 player with offers from Clemson, Georgia, Florida State, and Temple along with TAMU. His scouting reports described him as long and athletic, bouncy, slasher who can also hit the three, can play at both ends, and a national sleeper. Post injury and transfer announcement the other teams after him with the Gophers included UCONN, Cal, and Arizona State. I'm pretty sure he's still good, or at least has potential.
3. The Gophers needed a big guy. This is true, of course, but I need a blowjob from Kate Upton as well and I don't see that happening. The cards didn't align for whatever reason on Pitino getting an immediately eligible big in here, but I don't see why Fitzgerald is a bad thing. Pitino seems to be collecting athletic wings who can defend and play multiple positions and those kind of teams generally do quite well. Yeah, I'd feel much better with any kind of established post dude and I have a feeling this is going to be kind of a lost year, but 2016-2017 with Reggie Lynch eligible could be a huge year. Fitzgerald and Jordan Murphy could potentially play some PF, not to mention Gaston Diedhiou and Bakary Konate and, oh yeah, Charles Buggs is here too. Treat 2015 as a building year. Be excited for 2016. That's also Pitino's first year with all his own players, so it better be a good one.
4. He shoots to much. A little nervous about this one. Frehsman year he had a 32.7% shot percentage with a 43.8 eFG. Sophomore year he had a 27.7% shot percentage with a 41.6 eFG. Add in a basically non-existent assist rate and you're looking at a flat our chucker. Either he needs to take it down a notch, or he everyone else needs to be good enough that he can play the Malik Smith-like gunner role where you put him in and if he's hot you let him roll and if he's not you sit him down. Hoping he gets his bombing under control, but this seems like the one real legit beef here.
Plenty of question marks yeah, but I see a lot of good things here too. Really depends on if he's recovered from his injury, and with over 2 years clear he should be. I know he doesn't help for 2015 and the team could have used a big, but I'm pretty sure Pitino has a plan. Again, 2016. That's our year. That's it. Circle it. We goin' Sizzla.
- And the Twins. What can we say about the Twins? Tied for first in the AL Central, 10 games over .500. This rules, and is a full year ahead of schedule. There are some obvious reasons why the Twins are overachieving - Brian Dozier is still awesome, Torii Hunter has shown zero dropoff at age 39, Trevor Plouffe is having a career year so far, Kyle Gibson may be becoming an ace, and Mike Pelfrey is pitching out of his mind. Along with all these there's one piece of the game where the Twins have shown major improvement - they've become an average defensive outfield.
That may not sound like much, but it is. Using Ultimate Zone Rating (and yes, no defensive metric is perfect but this one looks good, i.e. the Royals rank 1st of all outfields), the Twins ranked second to last in 2014, third to last in 2013, and third to last in 2012. This year they rank 16th.
If you want to break it down, the Twins outfield defense, not taking into account pitching, hitting, infield fielding, or anything else has cost the team 0.9 runs against average this year. That's nothing. In 2014, outfield defense cost the team 36 runs, in 2013 it was 35 runs, and in 2012 it was 21. The nerds say 9 runs is equal to one win, so basically the team has gone from costing itself 4 wins due to outfield defense alone to being on pace to cost themselves to about a third of a win (though this number is bound to get worse once Oswaldo Arcia gets back). It's hard to reconcile what that really means, but the difference in a 4.0 WAR to a 0.35 WAR is the difference between Miguel Cabrera's hitting ability and Kurt Suzuki's hitting ability in 2014. It's a pretty big deal!
Last year Arcia and Jason Kubel were absolute butchers and Josh Willingham wasn't much better. Nobody was very good at all, with only Sam Fuld grading out well. Basically that defense was where fly balls went to live. This season Arcia has still been bad, Eduardo Escobar shaky out there (no surprise either), and for all Jordan Schafer's speed he's been the worst fielder on the team, but there's lots of good news. Eddie Rosario has been pretty much average, but Aaron Hicks has made a big leap forward from last season, and Shane Robinson has been elite (top 10 in MLB, no joke).
Look man, there are a billion reasons to not buy into the Twins. Those articles are all over the internet and you can't go to a sports website without tripping over one. And I'm not saying I'm 100% on board yet either, but I'm getting close. Lots of fluky things about this team that could go away in a hurry, but outfield defense isn't one of them. As Deep Blue Something once said, "Well at least that's, the one thing we've got."
- The Gophers closed out the 2015 recruiting class, again, by picking up 6-7 forward Davonte Fitzgerald, a transfer from Texas A&M. Fitzgerald, a sophomore, will sit out 2015-2016 and will have two years of eligibility remaining. It seems a lot of people hate this signing. Let's look at why so I can tell you why you're wrong.
1. Taking a player from TAMU is taking a player from a crappy team/conference. The SEC has been down lately, sure, and Texas A&M hasn't made the NCAA tournament since 2011. Some of this argument makes some sense. But recall, prior to missing the tournament in 2012 the Aggies had gotten invited six years in a row and their down years coincided with Mark Turgeon's jump to Maryland. Billy Kennedy has the program rising with an NIT bid last season and a CIT bid the year before. Now they're poised to take a pretty big jump with the #6 ranked recruiting class in the country coming in per ESPN and they're also returning their top 3 scorers from last year. Texas A&M isn't a juggernaut or a blue blood, but I'd be hard pressed to claim Minnesota is a better program.
2. He wasn't very good. Mainly this is from people who see he averaged 3.5 points per game as as sophomore and are like omg this guy blows lol. What they miss, of course, is he averaged 7.3 ppg in just 15 minutes per game as a freshman and basically played the second unit instant offense role - until he tore his ACL in February. He came back last year and the season was pretty much a loss, which is why his average points per game was down by half. After averaging 16 minutes per game as a freshman he only reached that mark six times all last season. If you're the type who thinks that's probably because he suddenly sucked, well, you're probably an idiot. By the time he gets to see the court for the Gophers he'll be over two years clear of that injury. That's probably good, because he was good.
Coming out of high school Fitzgerald was a Top 200 player with offers from Clemson, Georgia, Florida State, and Temple along with TAMU. His scouting reports described him as long and athletic, bouncy, slasher who can also hit the three, can play at both ends, and a national sleeper. Post injury and transfer announcement the other teams after him with the Gophers included UCONN, Cal, and Arizona State. I'm pretty sure he's still good, or at least has potential.
3. The Gophers needed a big guy. This is true, of course, but I need a blowjob from Kate Upton as well and I don't see that happening. The cards didn't align for whatever reason on Pitino getting an immediately eligible big in here, but I don't see why Fitzgerald is a bad thing. Pitino seems to be collecting athletic wings who can defend and play multiple positions and those kind of teams generally do quite well. Yeah, I'd feel much better with any kind of established post dude and I have a feeling this is going to be kind of a lost year, but 2016-2017 with Reggie Lynch eligible could be a huge year. Fitzgerald and Jordan Murphy could potentially play some PF, not to mention Gaston Diedhiou and Bakary Konate and, oh yeah, Charles Buggs is here too. Treat 2015 as a building year. Be excited for 2016. That's also Pitino's first year with all his own players, so it better be a good one.
4. He shoots to much. A little nervous about this one. Frehsman year he had a 32.7% shot percentage with a 43.8 eFG. Sophomore year he had a 27.7% shot percentage with a 41.6 eFG. Add in a basically non-existent assist rate and you're looking at a flat our chucker. Either he needs to take it down a notch, or he everyone else needs to be good enough that he can play the Malik Smith-like gunner role where you put him in and if he's hot you let him roll and if he's not you sit him down. Hoping he gets his bombing under control, but this seems like the one real legit beef here.
Plenty of question marks yeah, but I see a lot of good things here too. Really depends on if he's recovered from his injury, and with over 2 years clear he should be. I know he doesn't help for 2015 and the team could have used a big, but I'm pretty sure Pitino has a plan. Again, 2016. That's our year. That's it. Circle it. We goin' Sizzla.
- And the Twins. What can we say about the Twins? Tied for first in the AL Central, 10 games over .500. This rules, and is a full year ahead of schedule. There are some obvious reasons why the Twins are overachieving - Brian Dozier is still awesome, Torii Hunter has shown zero dropoff at age 39, Trevor Plouffe is having a career year so far, Kyle Gibson may be becoming an ace, and Mike Pelfrey is pitching out of his mind. Along with all these there's one piece of the game where the Twins have shown major improvement - they've become an average defensive outfield.
That may not sound like much, but it is. Using Ultimate Zone Rating (and yes, no defensive metric is perfect but this one looks good, i.e. the Royals rank 1st of all outfields), the Twins ranked second to last in 2014, third to last in 2013, and third to last in 2012. This year they rank 16th.
If you want to break it down, the Twins outfield defense, not taking into account pitching, hitting, infield fielding, or anything else has cost the team 0.9 runs against average this year. That's nothing. In 2014, outfield defense cost the team 36 runs, in 2013 it was 35 runs, and in 2012 it was 21. The nerds say 9 runs is equal to one win, so basically the team has gone from costing itself 4 wins due to outfield defense alone to being on pace to cost themselves to about a third of a win (though this number is bound to get worse once Oswaldo Arcia gets back). It's hard to reconcile what that really means, but the difference in a 4.0 WAR to a 0.35 WAR is the difference between Miguel Cabrera's hitting ability and Kurt Suzuki's hitting ability in 2014. It's a pretty big deal!
Last year Arcia and Jason Kubel were absolute butchers and Josh Willingham wasn't much better. Nobody was very good at all, with only Sam Fuld grading out well. Basically that defense was where fly balls went to live. This season Arcia has still been bad, Eduardo Escobar shaky out there (no surprise either), and for all Jordan Schafer's speed he's been the worst fielder on the team, but there's lots of good news. Eddie Rosario has been pretty much average, but Aaron Hicks has made a big leap forward from last season, and Shane Robinson has been elite (top 10 in MLB, no joke).
Look man, there are a billion reasons to not buy into the Twins. Those articles are all over the internet and you can't go to a sports website without tripping over one. And I'm not saying I'm 100% on board yet either, but I'm getting close. Lots of fluky things about this team that could go away in a hurry, but outfield defense isn't one of them. As Deep Blue Something once said, "Well at least that's, the one thing we've got."
Thursday, May 21, 2015
Thursday Thoughts
- So Jonathan Nwankwo, one of the Gopher hoops signees for next season, was let out of his letter of intent. Here's my post from when he originally committed so I won't rehash all that, but this sucks. There are all kinds of rumors to why, but they all agree on it being an academic thing. If it's an NCAA issue as some suggest, well, what are you going to do? If it's a U of M thing, man that sucks. I get that being a high level academic institution is important, that's kind of the Big 10's thing, but I don't really care because it doesn't affect me. I'd rather have them just go ahead and admit anybody who can play basketball at a high level and work it out from there. I like that the U is a big time smarty pants research school, but can't we just make an exception for sports?
- The Wolves won the lottery! They get to pick first, and the cynic would say of course they won this year when there are 3-4 legitimate options for first overall pick, but as much as I love DeAngelo Russell, and I do, I think the clear 1-2 are Karl-Anthony Towns and Jahlil Okafor. For me, it's clear that Towns needs to be the pick.
Okafor is a ready made post scorer with more polish on that end than Towns, but Towns can do so much more and, in my eyes, has a lot more potential. Towns is nearly as good in the post, hitting 72% of his attempts at the rim while Okafor hit 75%, but Towns can step out and do some other things offensively. Seventy percent of Okafor's shots came at the rim, while Towns was just 54%, and Okafor didn't even attempt a single shot farther out than 17 feet this year, while Towns actually attempted eight three pointers and plenty of mid-range stuff. Here are their shot charts from shotanalytics.com:
 |
| Almost all at the rim |
 |
| More balanced. |
That doesn't mean that Okafor can't develop a perimeter game, but it does mean Towns is closer and the disparity in free throw percentage (Okafor 51%, Towns 82%) suggests the same. Additionally, Towns averaged nearly double the blocked shots per game despite playing nine fewer minutes and on a per possession basis Towns blocked 11.7% of shots when he was on the floor (16th in the country) and Okafor just 4.5% (still good for 245th). Rebounding, Okafor edges Towns by about 1.5 per game, but again, per possession Towns' percentages are absolutely elite, while Okafor's are merely very good.
Okafor showed his game all season, while Towns merely began to tap his potential. It also remains to be seen if Okafor can up his defensive game while I don't think there's any question how good Towns can be, and Okafor struggled against seven footers last season while Towns held his own pretty much against anybody. The choice is clear, it needs to be Towns, or it's a huge mistake.
- I suppose I have to talk Twins seeing as how they're suddenly on a 93 win pace, but I'm kind of trying to ignore it because it's just beyond fragile right now. Everything from run differential to pythagorean winning percentage to cluster luck says this isn't a 93-win team. Pythagorean winning percentage says this is probably more like an 80 win team, and digging even deeper into the nerd stats says they might even be worse than that. And this so far with Mike Pelfrey pitching out his ass and Kyle Gibson greatly outperforming his peripherals (though Gibson could do it all year, but don't expect Pelfrey not to crash).
Still, Phil Hughes should get better and Trevor May will hopefully get better, plus reinforcements should show up at some point in Alex Meyer and Ervin Santana, not to mention a couple extra bullpen arms who could show up. The offense has been great - 6th in runs scored in the majors - and though it will probably regress a bit it should be fine, and with just as many candidates who should get better as who will likely fall off a bit that's looking good. Oh man I'm getting optimistic. This is horrible.
Here is one guarantee: Santana is eligible to return sometime in July. The trade deadline is July 31st. I promise you if the Twins are anywhere near contention we will hear "Well we're getting Santana back, that's just like making a trade" or something similar. And then I will drive my car off the nearest bridge.
- A few other baseball things of note: Bryce Harper becoming a young monster (1.203 OPS at age 22), Miguel Cabrera's Day/Night splits (1.427 OPS in the day, .645 at night), Eric Hosmer being good now and maybe even Mike Moustakas too, Joc Pederson's three true outcomes (54% of his plate appearances have ended in a walk, strikeout, or home run), Kris Bryant, Dee Gordon's insane luck (.444 BABIP), the Astros quest to break the strikeout record (batting) while still being good, Chase Utley's disappearance (.513 OPS), Giancarlo Stanton crushing the ball, Danny Santana's attempt to never walk, Michael Brantley trying to finish with twice as many walks as strikeouts, Melky Cabrera's complete loss of power (3 XBH this year) and Billy Hamliton looking to have more stolen bases than hits.
Also, every Aroldis Chapman appearance, James Shields striking out everyone in sight, Chris Tillman's sudden inability to throw a strike, everything about the Trevor Bauer experience, Michael Pineda being (and staying healthy), Cole Hamels trade watch, Jason Marquis still being in the league and still having a rotation spot, Shelby Miller becoming a star, Matt Harvey appointment TV, and what the hell happened to Stephen Strasburg?
- I thought there'd be more, but apparently I'm out of practice and my stamina isn't what it used to be. So, bye.
Wednesday, May 6, 2015
The Twins are over .500. The hell?
Though being one game over .500 isn't exactly blowing up the league, the Twins had extremely low expectations with a Vegas over/under of 70.5 wins, so being on pace to win something like 84 games represents a substantially better season than expected. One can't help but wonder how they got here, and if we can expect it to last and maybe see some semi-meaningful baseball in September again for the first time in what feels like forever.
The offense has been about what was expected: Team overall OPS is .675, last year it was .713. They're walking a little less and hitting with a little less power so far, but overall nothing out of the ordinary and they've averaged 4.56 runs per game this year compared to 4.41 last year so the offense is fine. It'd be nice for Kurt Suzuki and Kennys Vargas to start hitting, but the offense is fine. The defense has been atrocious as expected, so the improvement must have come from the pitching.
Sure enough, team ERA in 2015 is 4.07, down a half a run from 4.58 last year. Even better, starters' ERA is 4.38, which is 10th worst in the majors but a major upgrade from last year's 5.06 and 2013's 5.26, both dead last in the majors. Twins' relievers sport an ERA of 3.58, in line with 2014's 3.73 and 2013's 3.50, so any improvement has come from the starting pitching. Might as well look at all these guys and see who might actually be, like, good.
PHIL HUGHES: Hughes had a nearly impossible task trying to replicate both a career year and a historic walk/strikeout ratio, but he hasn't come close so far putting up numbers more in line with his Yankee days than last season. He's still controlling walks well and his strikeouts, though down a bit, are at a nice number, but he's getting killed by home runs, allowing 1.91 HRs per 9 innings after allowing just 0.69 last year. The good news is that he's allowing a home run on 15.1% of all his fly balls, which is likely an outlier since it would have been the second worst in the majors among starters with at least 150 innings pitched last season, and I'm pretty sure a Phil Hughes making about his half his starts at Target Field isn't going to end up at that number. He got really lucky about home runs last year (6.2% HR/FB), but his true ability probably lies somewhere in the middle. He probably won't be as good as last year, but he'll be better than he's been thus far.
KYLE GIBSON: Gibson's ERA is down almost a full run from last season, but there are some serious red flags here. His BABIP this year is just .267, below his career average and the league average, and his runners LOB% is 75.8%, which would be a top 30 mark most seasons - both significant indicators of luck. Alarmingly his K/9 has dropped to 2.79 (from 5.37 last year) which is dead last in the majors, and his walks have jumped by 1 per nine innings at the same time to 3.86, 14th worst in the league. He's also allowing a career worst 24% line drive rate and 83.6% contact rate. Seeing as he's shown nothing at all to support his ERA improvement from last season you're looking at a serious regression candidate unless he starts missing some bats.
MIKE PELFREY: The guy who nobody wanted in the rotation except for him and his family, and Pelfrey's put up a 2.63 ERA in five starts, but don't let that fool you - he's still terrible. BABIP is .259, LOB % is 83.3%, and HR/9 is just 0.66 - there's no way this keeps up. Those numbers last season would have ranked 18th, 1st, and 18th - does Pelfrey seem like a Top 20 pitcher to you? I will say this - his 56% ground ball rate is a very good thing and his hard hit ball percentage is just 18.1%, second in the league and probably fluky but not as definitely fluky as his other peripherals I'm not buying yet, but he's throwing a ton more split fingers and sliders and isn't relying as much on the fastball, and somehow he's managed to put more than 2 mph on his fast ball compared to last year. I don't believe in Pelfrey, but I expected this paragraph to be much worse. He may actually end up a decent number 4-5 starter.
TREVOR MAY: Probably the most important of these guys given his youth and potential, May's 4.15 ERA is decent but the good news is he's probably even better than that. His BABIP is high and his LOB % is low. He's putting up a respectable 6.9 K/9 and has reigned in his massive control problems from last year to average just 1.73 walks per nine. His HR numbers are a bit fluky and he should regress there a bit, but as long as he can control his walks he should be solid. We may have something here. Get it? Control his walks? May have something? That's high comedy right there.
TOMMY MILONE: You generally don't expect much from fifth pitchers, but Milone has been more like a seventh or eighth guy so far. Among Twins' pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched he ranks last in walk rate, homer rate, FIP, and xFIP, and his ERA is second worst at 4.76. Perhaps the worst part is that Milone's BABIP is a minuscule .243 and his LOB is over 80%, so he's actually been putting up these horrid stats while getting lucky. Yuck. His control is completely out of hand with 4.37 BB/9, nearly double his career average and he's just giving up a monstrous amount of home runs. Assuming he hasn't lost it he should be better than this but he's never going to be special. A guy with a 87 mph fastball has to be pretty sharp with control and pitch mix, so it certainly is possible he's lost it. Might even work better for the Twins if he has, so they can finally get Alex Meyer up here.
So, kind of a mixed bag. Some guys should be better than they've been, some worse. Probably the kind of thing you'd expect on a team that's right around .500. And hey, maybe they'll stay there. That'd be cool.
The offense has been about what was expected: Team overall OPS is .675, last year it was .713. They're walking a little less and hitting with a little less power so far, but overall nothing out of the ordinary and they've averaged 4.56 runs per game this year compared to 4.41 last year so the offense is fine. It'd be nice for Kurt Suzuki and Kennys Vargas to start hitting, but the offense is fine. The defense has been atrocious as expected, so the improvement must have come from the pitching.
Sure enough, team ERA in 2015 is 4.07, down a half a run from 4.58 last year. Even better, starters' ERA is 4.38, which is 10th worst in the majors but a major upgrade from last year's 5.06 and 2013's 5.26, both dead last in the majors. Twins' relievers sport an ERA of 3.58, in line with 2014's 3.73 and 2013's 3.50, so any improvement has come from the starting pitching. Might as well look at all these guys and see who might actually be, like, good.
PHIL HUGHES: Hughes had a nearly impossible task trying to replicate both a career year and a historic walk/strikeout ratio, but he hasn't come close so far putting up numbers more in line with his Yankee days than last season. He's still controlling walks well and his strikeouts, though down a bit, are at a nice number, but he's getting killed by home runs, allowing 1.91 HRs per 9 innings after allowing just 0.69 last year. The good news is that he's allowing a home run on 15.1% of all his fly balls, which is likely an outlier since it would have been the second worst in the majors among starters with at least 150 innings pitched last season, and I'm pretty sure a Phil Hughes making about his half his starts at Target Field isn't going to end up at that number. He got really lucky about home runs last year (6.2% HR/FB), but his true ability probably lies somewhere in the middle. He probably won't be as good as last year, but he'll be better than he's been thus far.
KYLE GIBSON: Gibson's ERA is down almost a full run from last season, but there are some serious red flags here. His BABIP this year is just .267, below his career average and the league average, and his runners LOB% is 75.8%, which would be a top 30 mark most seasons - both significant indicators of luck. Alarmingly his K/9 has dropped to 2.79 (from 5.37 last year) which is dead last in the majors, and his walks have jumped by 1 per nine innings at the same time to 3.86, 14th worst in the league. He's also allowing a career worst 24% line drive rate and 83.6% contact rate. Seeing as he's shown nothing at all to support his ERA improvement from last season you're looking at a serious regression candidate unless he starts missing some bats.
MIKE PELFREY: The guy who nobody wanted in the rotation except for him and his family, and Pelfrey's put up a 2.63 ERA in five starts, but don't let that fool you - he's still terrible. BABIP is .259, LOB % is 83.3%, and HR/9 is just 0.66 - there's no way this keeps up. Those numbers last season would have ranked 18th, 1st, and 18th - does Pelfrey seem like a Top 20 pitcher to you? I will say this - his 56% ground ball rate is a very good thing and his hard hit ball percentage is just 18.1%, second in the league and probably fluky but not as definitely fluky as his other peripherals I'm not buying yet, but he's throwing a ton more split fingers and sliders and isn't relying as much on the fastball, and somehow he's managed to put more than 2 mph on his fast ball compared to last year. I don't believe in Pelfrey, but I expected this paragraph to be much worse. He may actually end up a decent number 4-5 starter.
TREVOR MAY: Probably the most important of these guys given his youth and potential, May's 4.15 ERA is decent but the good news is he's probably even better than that. His BABIP is high and his LOB % is low. He's putting up a respectable 6.9 K/9 and has reigned in his massive control problems from last year to average just 1.73 walks per nine. His HR numbers are a bit fluky and he should regress there a bit, but as long as he can control his walks he should be solid. We may have something here. Get it? Control his walks? May have something? That's high comedy right there.
TOMMY MILONE: You generally don't expect much from fifth pitchers, but Milone has been more like a seventh or eighth guy so far. Among Twins' pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched he ranks last in walk rate, homer rate, FIP, and xFIP, and his ERA is second worst at 4.76. Perhaps the worst part is that Milone's BABIP is a minuscule .243 and his LOB is over 80%, so he's actually been putting up these horrid stats while getting lucky. Yuck. His control is completely out of hand with 4.37 BB/9, nearly double his career average and he's just giving up a monstrous amount of home runs. Assuming he hasn't lost it he should be better than this but he's never going to be special. A guy with a 87 mph fastball has to be pretty sharp with control and pitch mix, so it certainly is possible he's lost it. Might even work better for the Twins if he has, so they can finally get Alex Meyer up here.
So, kind of a mixed bag. Some guys should be better than they've been, some worse. Probably the kind of thing you'd expect on a team that's right around .500. And hey, maybe they'll stay there. That'd be cool.
Thursday, April 2, 2015
Twins Preview - Throwers
I really don't want to do this. The Twins' pitching has been horrible for years, and even though it might be a little bit better it's still bad and it's also boring. I guess just dive right in? Yeah ok.
Opening day starter Phil Hughes should be the ace. The Twins signed him prior to last season on the cheap, hoping he'd be a better pitcher getting out of Yankee Stadium and boy did that pay off. He slashed his walks to an insane 0.69 per 9 innings which was the third lowest mark since 1920. 1920! And he somehow managed to do that while increasing his strikeouts and giving up half as many homers per fly ball. The homers number is maybe a little fluky, but moving from Yankee Stadium to Target Field can explain a lot of that too and it's balanced by a slightly higher than it should have been BABIP.
I mean Hughes was a really, really good pitcher last year. Imagine if the Twins weren't one of the two worst fielding teams in the league last year (I can't remember the other one). Hughes' FIP, which stands for Fielding Independent Pitching and attempts to measure a pitcher based solely on things he can control, was 2.65, almost a full run lower than his ERA (that means the Twins' fielding and Hughes' luck were both really, really bad). That number was fifth among qualified starters in all of baseball. He was fifth among starters in WAR. He won 16 games on a terrible team. He finished 7th in Cy Young voting. I mean geez. I didn't even realize just how good he was.
Honestly, and it scares me to say this a little, there's really no reason not to expect him to be the same pitcher this season. None of the improvements he made are unsustainable, even if a little regression should probably be expected because that's only natural after you set an all-time freaking record for K/Walk ratio, and there's actually some room for his luck to improve. Most of the projection systems like his walk rate to about double (to a still really good number in the low 1s) and his ERA/WHIP/FIP to go up accordingly, but what if he can come closer to replicating that 0.69? Man wow. I know his extension is a bit of a risk since it's pretty much based on one season, but if he can come close to that pitcher again it'll be an absolute bargain.
After Hughes come a couple vets in new Ervin Santana and last year's new Ricky Nolasco. The latter was an unmitigated disaster, as Nolasco cashed in $12 million to put up career worsts in nearly every category to the tune of a 5.38 ERA and 1.52 WHIP, all while failing to reach 200 innings pitched. Looking into the advanced stats there's not much of a reason for optimism, though he probably won't be worse. Even so, I took him with my first pick in a horrible players fantasy league, where you're rewarded for sucking. Santana is a good signing for a contending team who needs someone in the middle of their rotation, but he doesn't make much sense for a a team like the Twins, especially if it helped push Alex Meyer and Trevor May back down to AAA. I mean, he's been a pretty good pitcher in five of the last six seasons and he'll almost certainly help the team win more games this season, but he's pretty pointless unless he's still good when this team is contending. Which will be soon, right? Whatever. The team probably thought they were signing Johan Santana anyway.
Starter four is Kyle Gibson who has pretty much lost his top prospect shine but had a pretty successful second season. He improved from his (admittedly disastrous) rookie call-up two years ago by getting better in pretty much every metric you can find. His WAR was 2.1 last season, which puts him in line with guys like Chris Tillman and Henderson Alvarez in the pretty darn good pitcher area. I'd really like to see him up his K rate to somewhere closer to what he was putting up in the minors, but you can't really argue to much with a 2:1 ground ball to fly ball ratio. He's a solid #4 or a so-so #3 with potential for more if he can whiff more dudes. Keep an eye on that.
Winning the fifth starter competition over Meyer, May, and Mike Pelfrey (who is in the bullpen in a move I'm sure will work out) is your guy Tommy Milone, who came over in the Sam Fuld trade in what was a steal because Fuld is terrible. Not that Milone is anything particularly special, but he's made himself into a serviceable major league pitcher despite a fastball that doesn't break 87 miles per hour unless there's a stiff breeze behind him. But he mixes his pitches well and generally keeps the walks down, so he's not the worst option you could have as a fifth starter - though I promise you he'll have games where he's missing his spots where you'll believe he's pretty much the worst.
That's it for the starters, so now we're on to the bullpen which is going to be awful. Glen Perkins will close of course and he's pretty awesome. I have a tendency since he's a Minnesotan on a Minnesota team (and also I'm kind of a shithead sometimes) to assume he's being locally overrated but Perkins really is an elite closer. Since he took over the closer role permanently in 2013 he ranks 9th in saves (on a terrible team), 13th in K/9, 58th in ERA, and 22nd in FIP, and 25th in WHIP among all pitchers with at least 120 innings pitched - that's pretty damn good! And he has four more extremely affordable years on his contract (including this season). I kind of love the guy, but they should probably be listening at every trade deadline. Some team in win-now mode who is desperate for a closer might do something foolish, and he's a very valuable trade chip. For now, I'm just going to love watching him, and he's young enough he could be the closer when the team is in contention again (they will!), but you know, think about it.
I'm not saying shop him, not at all. I'm just saying if say, the Dodgers and their bottomless pit of money find themselves in a dogfight for the division they could come sniffing around. What if Kenley Jansen's injury festers and he's out all year, and terrible Brandon League and unproven Chris Hatcher aren't getting the job done? Between Perkins's skills, proven closer status, and super nice contract he'd be an attractive option. Maybe you can pry Kyle Seager or Julio Urias away. That would be pretty stupid on the Dodgers' end, but that doesn't mean it can't happen. They have a super deep farm system and they clearly want to win and they want to win now.
Casey Fien will be the main setup guy after another pretty good year even if he did slip a bit. It's a smidge disconcerting, however, that his K/9 dropped from 10.6 in 2013 to 7.3 in 2014. His velocity was actually up so there's a decent chance this was just a weird blip, but there was also a huge jump in contact rate. Keep an eye on this guy.
Brian Duensing was brought back for some reason and he'll be the sole non-Perkins lefty even though he's really quite terrible at pitching. He has been decent at getting lefties out in his career, but his inability to strike anyone out drives me crazy and he should never, ever pitch to right-handed batters. I really don't know why they tendered him other than continuity and familiarity which, as you know, the Twins value to an absurd degree. I'd rather just roll the dice on Caleb Thielbar. Granted in his two seasons he's shown reverse splits and if the Twins looked at that then bravo, but I guess I don't buy the front office is that sophisticated. There aren't really any other in house options for a lefty bullpen guy which is sad in and of itself, but there's always plenty of crappy lefty arms out there you could probably snag for a minor league deal. In the long run I suppose it doesn't matter, but giving $2.7 million to a terrible Duensing is kind of gross.
The rest of the bullpen is pretty much a mess. Tim Stauffer is a failed starter who's dealt with a couple of really significant injuries and he's probably the best of the group. Mike Pelfrey is absolutely terrible and should be released but instead the Twins are putting him in the pen which also pissed him off, so this is just a great situation all around. J.R. Graham pretty much made the team because he was a Rule 5 pick and has to be on the big league roster or be sent back to his original team, and I literally have no idea who Blaine Boyer is. This is not an impressive collection of arms, and to make it even worse the only guy in the entire bullpen who is under 30 is Graham. It's a group of old, failed pitchers. I prefer my bullpen made up of hard throwing young guys with at least one who isn't sure where the ball might be going all the time. That's fun. This is a garbage fire.
It's not like the team's going anywhere anyway. You could roll with 25-year old Michael Tonkin, 25-year old Stephen Pryor, 26-year old Lester Oliveros, 22-year old Nick Burdi, and 22-year old Jake Reed and be just as well off, if not better, and it would be a lot more fun. Or hell, throw Meyer and/or May into the pen to start like the way the Orioles have handled Kevin Gausman. I don't know. I'm not entirely certain this team has a coherent plan beyond "waiting for 2016 and hoping all the prospects are good" but whatever.
All in all, the starters could be decent this year, and will most likely be the best the Twins have had in a few years. The bullpen, however, is going to blow a lot of games.
Opening day starter Phil Hughes should be the ace. The Twins signed him prior to last season on the cheap, hoping he'd be a better pitcher getting out of Yankee Stadium and boy did that pay off. He slashed his walks to an insane 0.69 per 9 innings which was the third lowest mark since 1920. 1920! And he somehow managed to do that while increasing his strikeouts and giving up half as many homers per fly ball. The homers number is maybe a little fluky, but moving from Yankee Stadium to Target Field can explain a lot of that too and it's balanced by a slightly higher than it should have been BABIP.
I mean Hughes was a really, really good pitcher last year. Imagine if the Twins weren't one of the two worst fielding teams in the league last year (I can't remember the other one). Hughes' FIP, which stands for Fielding Independent Pitching and attempts to measure a pitcher based solely on things he can control, was 2.65, almost a full run lower than his ERA (that means the Twins' fielding and Hughes' luck were both really, really bad). That number was fifth among qualified starters in all of baseball. He was fifth among starters in WAR. He won 16 games on a terrible team. He finished 7th in Cy Young voting. I mean geez. I didn't even realize just how good he was.
Honestly, and it scares me to say this a little, there's really no reason not to expect him to be the same pitcher this season. None of the improvements he made are unsustainable, even if a little regression should probably be expected because that's only natural after you set an all-time freaking record for K/Walk ratio, and there's actually some room for his luck to improve. Most of the projection systems like his walk rate to about double (to a still really good number in the low 1s) and his ERA/WHIP/FIP to go up accordingly, but what if he can come closer to replicating that 0.69? Man wow. I know his extension is a bit of a risk since it's pretty much based on one season, but if he can come close to that pitcher again it'll be an absolute bargain.
After Hughes come a couple vets in new Ervin Santana and last year's new Ricky Nolasco. The latter was an unmitigated disaster, as Nolasco cashed in $12 million to put up career worsts in nearly every category to the tune of a 5.38 ERA and 1.52 WHIP, all while failing to reach 200 innings pitched. Looking into the advanced stats there's not much of a reason for optimism, though he probably won't be worse. Even so, I took him with my first pick in a horrible players fantasy league, where you're rewarded for sucking. Santana is a good signing for a contending team who needs someone in the middle of their rotation, but he doesn't make much sense for a a team like the Twins, especially if it helped push Alex Meyer and Trevor May back down to AAA. I mean, he's been a pretty good pitcher in five of the last six seasons and he'll almost certainly help the team win more games this season, but he's pretty pointless unless he's still good when this team is contending. Which will be soon, right? Whatever. The team probably thought they were signing Johan Santana anyway.
Starter four is Kyle Gibson who has pretty much lost his top prospect shine but had a pretty successful second season. He improved from his (admittedly disastrous) rookie call-up two years ago by getting better in pretty much every metric you can find. His WAR was 2.1 last season, which puts him in line with guys like Chris Tillman and Henderson Alvarez in the pretty darn good pitcher area. I'd really like to see him up his K rate to somewhere closer to what he was putting up in the minors, but you can't really argue to much with a 2:1 ground ball to fly ball ratio. He's a solid #4 or a so-so #3 with potential for more if he can whiff more dudes. Keep an eye on that.
Winning the fifth starter competition over Meyer, May, and Mike Pelfrey (who is in the bullpen in a move I'm sure will work out) is your guy Tommy Milone, who came over in the Sam Fuld trade in what was a steal because Fuld is terrible. Not that Milone is anything particularly special, but he's made himself into a serviceable major league pitcher despite a fastball that doesn't break 87 miles per hour unless there's a stiff breeze behind him. But he mixes his pitches well and generally keeps the walks down, so he's not the worst option you could have as a fifth starter - though I promise you he'll have games where he's missing his spots where you'll believe he's pretty much the worst.
That's it for the starters, so now we're on to the bullpen which is going to be awful. Glen Perkins will close of course and he's pretty awesome. I have a tendency since he's a Minnesotan on a Minnesota team (and also I'm kind of a shithead sometimes) to assume he's being locally overrated but Perkins really is an elite closer. Since he took over the closer role permanently in 2013 he ranks 9th in saves (on a terrible team), 13th in K/9, 58th in ERA, and 22nd in FIP, and 25th in WHIP among all pitchers with at least 120 innings pitched - that's pretty damn good! And he has four more extremely affordable years on his contract (including this season). I kind of love the guy, but they should probably be listening at every trade deadline. Some team in win-now mode who is desperate for a closer might do something foolish, and he's a very valuable trade chip. For now, I'm just going to love watching him, and he's young enough he could be the closer when the team is in contention again (they will!), but you know, think about it.
I'm not saying shop him, not at all. I'm just saying if say, the Dodgers and their bottomless pit of money find themselves in a dogfight for the division they could come sniffing around. What if Kenley Jansen's injury festers and he's out all year, and terrible Brandon League and unproven Chris Hatcher aren't getting the job done? Between Perkins's skills, proven closer status, and super nice contract he'd be an attractive option. Maybe you can pry Kyle Seager or Julio Urias away. That would be pretty stupid on the Dodgers' end, but that doesn't mean it can't happen. They have a super deep farm system and they clearly want to win and they want to win now.
Casey Fien will be the main setup guy after another pretty good year even if he did slip a bit. It's a smidge disconcerting, however, that his K/9 dropped from 10.6 in 2013 to 7.3 in 2014. His velocity was actually up so there's a decent chance this was just a weird blip, but there was also a huge jump in contact rate. Keep an eye on this guy.
Brian Duensing was brought back for some reason and he'll be the sole non-Perkins lefty even though he's really quite terrible at pitching. He has been decent at getting lefties out in his career, but his inability to strike anyone out drives me crazy and he should never, ever pitch to right-handed batters. I really don't know why they tendered him other than continuity and familiarity which, as you know, the Twins value to an absurd degree. I'd rather just roll the dice on Caleb Thielbar. Granted in his two seasons he's shown reverse splits and if the Twins looked at that then bravo, but I guess I don't buy the front office is that sophisticated. There aren't really any other in house options for a lefty bullpen guy which is sad in and of itself, but there's always plenty of crappy lefty arms out there you could probably snag for a minor league deal. In the long run I suppose it doesn't matter, but giving $2.7 million to a terrible Duensing is kind of gross.
The rest of the bullpen is pretty much a mess. Tim Stauffer is a failed starter who's dealt with a couple of really significant injuries and he's probably the best of the group. Mike Pelfrey is absolutely terrible and should be released but instead the Twins are putting him in the pen which also pissed him off, so this is just a great situation all around. J.R. Graham pretty much made the team because he was a Rule 5 pick and has to be on the big league roster or be sent back to his original team, and I literally have no idea who Blaine Boyer is. This is not an impressive collection of arms, and to make it even worse the only guy in the entire bullpen who is under 30 is Graham. It's a group of old, failed pitchers. I prefer my bullpen made up of hard throwing young guys with at least one who isn't sure where the ball might be going all the time. That's fun. This is a garbage fire.
It's not like the team's going anywhere anyway. You could roll with 25-year old Michael Tonkin, 25-year old Stephen Pryor, 26-year old Lester Oliveros, 22-year old Nick Burdi, and 22-year old Jake Reed and be just as well off, if not better, and it would be a lot more fun. Or hell, throw Meyer and/or May into the pen to start like the way the Orioles have handled Kevin Gausman. I don't know. I'm not entirely certain this team has a coherent plan beyond "waiting for 2016 and hoping all the prospects are good" but whatever.
All in all, the starters could be decent this year, and will most likely be the best the Twins have had in a few years. The bullpen, however, is going to blow a lot of games.
Tuesday, March 31, 2015
Twins Roster Preview - Hitter guys
With the depressing but not terribly surprising news that the Twins sent all the interesting young people back down to the minors and kept a bunch of lame-o veterans on the big league roster, I suppose it's time to turn my thoughts to baseball. Also, there's a 75% chance I hate the college basketball national champion (actually probably more like 98%) so I'm going to ignore that until it's on TV because of course I'll watch. Anyway, here's what we're dealing with from the guys who will try to hit the ball this year.
CATCHER: It'll be Kurt Suzuki and Josmil Pinto once again. Although it's kind of boring, this is sadly probably the Twins strength given Suzuki's solid season in 2014 and Pinto's possible upside. The handling of the catcher position last year was bizarre. Signing Suzuki in case Pinto wasn't ready made sense, but then extending Suzuki and demoting Pinto was the kind of move a contending team would make, and in case you forgot the Twins were not a contending team. Suzuki's value was likely at an all-time high given his career year and All-Star appearance and moving him at the trade deadline was probably the smart move, but here we are.
Suzuki will of course be the starter again. Last year he put up a slash line of .288/.345/.383 which smashed his career numbers. His peripherals suggest some regression but not as much as I had feared, so he should be solid behind the plate again. He's not horrible defensively either, so the Twins have a legit, competent player. Neat. Hopefully he gets traded. Pinto had a solid minor league track record of hitting and had a splashy debut in 2013, but last season his bat deserted him to the tune of .219/.315/.391 and given that he's a pretty terrible fielder most/all of his value comes from his bat. He did start hitting once demoted down to AAA last year, and even in struggles he still showed good plate discipline and power when he did make contact so there's probably not too much to worry about. Other than his path being completely blocked by the stupid 2-year deal given to Suzuki. Trade him!
INFIELD: Your guy Joe Mauer will be the first baseman again, which is pretty brutal. Mauer's line of .277/.361/.371 would be slightly above average for a middle infielder, but that OPS ranked 15th among all first basemen who qualified last season, just a slight tick better than Garrett Jones. I don't know what's up with Mauer, but an increase in strikeouts coupled with a complete loss of power is fairly terrifying given his salary. He's stopped hitting fly balls, and the fly balls he does hit don't go anywhere. I don't know why or what he's doing differently but whatever it is somebody please fix it!
I'm pretty stoked about the middle infield combo of Danny Santana and Brian Dozier, and these guys could be fixtures of the team when it gets good again which it will eventually so shut up. A lot of Santana's detractors point to his BABIP of .405 and say it's unsustainable, and it is, but I found a neato expected BABIP calculator that takes a players line drive percent and all that other stuff and spits out what the BABIP should be and his came out at .369 last year, so that .405 represents a bit of luck but not this massive amount you'd usually expect from a number north of .400. I expect him to bat close to .300 again and play a shaky shortstop.
Dozier just signed what could be a steal of a deal at 4/$20, assuring the Twins won't have to shell out big money any time soon if he continues to get better or even stays the same. Of course they could be stuck with him if he goes back to sucking, but I choose to believe that isn't going to happen. He doesn't hit for a high average which makes old people sad, but he has good power and great plate discipline, not to mention an above average glove and according to fangraphs base running metric (takes into account both stealing bases and taking an extra base on a hit) he was the 3rd best base runner in the game. Add all that up, and his hair, and you get one of the best second basemen in all of baseball. Too many tools for him to breakdown. He's going to be a nice bargain for the next four years, and probably traded at the deadline in 2018.
Trevor Plouffe will be back at third again, probably for the last time. With Miguel Sano breathing down his neck and still no indication Sano's going to be anything other than a third baseman this is Plouffe's last chance to prove his value. Whether he ends up being a trade casualty (probably the best case scenario), is non-tendered in the offseason, or shows enough they want to keep him around and make him an outfielder or something he's probably done at third. He's had a solid, if mostly unspectacular (other than that one time he was super hot hitting homers) 3-4 year run and has worked hard to go from a terrible fielder to an above average one, all while being a good, not great, hitter. He's been an important part of a consistent 90-game loser and it's time to start winning. Not this year, of course, be real, but next year maybe we can think about it.
Backing these nerds up we have the two headed crap factory of Eduardo Escobar and Eduardo Nunez who I still don't know why he was resigned. Escobar showed a weird flash of power last year with 35 doubles and is a capable defender all over the place so I like having him around. Nunez is terrible at everything.
Designated Hitter should be a fun spot with Kennys Vargas (who will also back-up at 1B) now here since he can hit the crap out of a baseball. Vargs knocked out nine dingers and ten doubles in just 234 plate appearances, racking up an isolated power metric that would have put him in the Top 40 in the majors if he had qualified. Considering he's like 16 years old or something that bodes well for the future. Assuming more experience helps move his walk and strikeout rates closer to his minor league numbers (a dangerous assumption, to be sure), he could be in for a big year. He crushed the ball in spring training with 1 HR every 14 ABs and everyone loves to watch fat guys launch baseballs out of the yard so expect him to be a fan favorite.
OUTFIELD: What a mess. Aaron Hicks ruined everything, and he's back in the minors again meaning Jordan Schafer, he of the career .621 OPS, will man center, flanked by the immobile Oswaldo Arcia and the ancient Torii Hunter in what is basically guaranteed to be the worst defensive outfield in the majors. Backing up a bunch of pitchers who don't strike anyone out. Great plan.
Ok I guess there's some upside. Arcia is still really young at 24 and he was one of just three players under 24 last year to hit more than 20 home runs. He still strikes out a ton but at least his power and walk rates got better last year, which is a good sign for future development. His fielding also improved from "oh my god" to "jeez this guy is terrible", which might be his ceiling. Hunter has been pretty much the same player the last five years, at least offensively, and if he can do it again and provide "leadership" or whatever he's probably worth having around. That being said, if you think he's any kind of defensive wizard anymore you're sorely mistaken as he's now well below average even at a corner spot (stupid Father Time!). That said he can't be any worse than the Willingham/Kubel/Parmelee trio of death that spent time out there last year, so he's got that going for him.
Schafer is the wild card, sort of, mainly because the Twins opted against giving Hicks a third year out of camp (or something radical like bringing Eddie Rosario up ahead of schedule) despite Schafer never really doing much of anything batted ball-wise. He's fast, bad at hitting, and white so you know he's gritty and full of hustle and heart, but in his 147 plate appearance sample with the Twins last year he managed to hit exactly league average and it was, by far, the most successful stint of his major league career. Somehow between the Twins and Braves last year he stole 30 bases (in 37 attempts) despite just 240 plate appearances which seems completely insane to me since "getting on base" isn't really in his wheelhouse but clearly he can run, which feels exciting. He can play a passable CF as well, so I guess it's better than throwing an inanimate carbon rod out there.
Outfield back-ups will include a handful of starts from Escobar, that god damn Nunez, and teeny tiny Shane Robinson who goes by Suga Shane on Twitter. He'll fit in with the Twins since he's proven he can't hit over 452 career plate appearances. He's a 30 year old non-prospect who didn't hit in the minors either until he was much older than his competition, but a mediocre Spring Training won him a job over Hicks, though perhaps giving Hicks a regular role at AAA is for the best and I really don't know who else would be better than Robinson since they didn't sign anybody else and let's be honest it probably would have been a former Twin who was well beyond his prime anyway. Robinson is a good fielder so he'll probably have some value plugging in as a defensive replacement in the late innings when the Twins stumble into a lead.
Overall, looking like a so-so offense. They'll most likely have above average hitters in 7 of the 9 spots and the other two either have serious bounce back potential (Mauer) or tremendous speed as an asset (Schafer). The bench is pretty bad unless Pinto bounces back but it's the American League so there probably won't be too much pinch hitting anyway. Switch hitting Escobar is the only possible lefty swinger off the bench but he's been brutal against righties in his career so yeah, I'd expect a lot of sticking with the main nine guys. It's a decent offense. The real problem is the pitching, which I don't have the heart, energy, or ambition to tackle right now. Later.
CATCHER: It'll be Kurt Suzuki and Josmil Pinto once again. Although it's kind of boring, this is sadly probably the Twins strength given Suzuki's solid season in 2014 and Pinto's possible upside. The handling of the catcher position last year was bizarre. Signing Suzuki in case Pinto wasn't ready made sense, but then extending Suzuki and demoting Pinto was the kind of move a contending team would make, and in case you forgot the Twins were not a contending team. Suzuki's value was likely at an all-time high given his career year and All-Star appearance and moving him at the trade deadline was probably the smart move, but here we are.
Suzuki will of course be the starter again. Last year he put up a slash line of .288/.345/.383 which smashed his career numbers. His peripherals suggest some regression but not as much as I had feared, so he should be solid behind the plate again. He's not horrible defensively either, so the Twins have a legit, competent player. Neat. Hopefully he gets traded. Pinto had a solid minor league track record of hitting and had a splashy debut in 2013, but last season his bat deserted him to the tune of .219/.315/.391 and given that he's a pretty terrible fielder most/all of his value comes from his bat. He did start hitting once demoted down to AAA last year, and even in struggles he still showed good plate discipline and power when he did make contact so there's probably not too much to worry about. Other than his path being completely blocked by the stupid 2-year deal given to Suzuki. Trade him!
INFIELD: Your guy Joe Mauer will be the first baseman again, which is pretty brutal. Mauer's line of .277/.361/.371 would be slightly above average for a middle infielder, but that OPS ranked 15th among all first basemen who qualified last season, just a slight tick better than Garrett Jones. I don't know what's up with Mauer, but an increase in strikeouts coupled with a complete loss of power is fairly terrifying given his salary. He's stopped hitting fly balls, and the fly balls he does hit don't go anywhere. I don't know why or what he's doing differently but whatever it is somebody please fix it!
I'm pretty stoked about the middle infield combo of Danny Santana and Brian Dozier, and these guys could be fixtures of the team when it gets good again which it will eventually so shut up. A lot of Santana's detractors point to his BABIP of .405 and say it's unsustainable, and it is, but I found a neato expected BABIP calculator that takes a players line drive percent and all that other stuff and spits out what the BABIP should be and his came out at .369 last year, so that .405 represents a bit of luck but not this massive amount you'd usually expect from a number north of .400. I expect him to bat close to .300 again and play a shaky shortstop.
Dozier just signed what could be a steal of a deal at 4/$20, assuring the Twins won't have to shell out big money any time soon if he continues to get better or even stays the same. Of course they could be stuck with him if he goes back to sucking, but I choose to believe that isn't going to happen. He doesn't hit for a high average which makes old people sad, but he has good power and great plate discipline, not to mention an above average glove and according to fangraphs base running metric (takes into account both stealing bases and taking an extra base on a hit) he was the 3rd best base runner in the game. Add all that up, and his hair, and you get one of the best second basemen in all of baseball. Too many tools for him to breakdown. He's going to be a nice bargain for the next four years, and probably traded at the deadline in 2018.
Trevor Plouffe will be back at third again, probably for the last time. With Miguel Sano breathing down his neck and still no indication Sano's going to be anything other than a third baseman this is Plouffe's last chance to prove his value. Whether he ends up being a trade casualty (probably the best case scenario), is non-tendered in the offseason, or shows enough they want to keep him around and make him an outfielder or something he's probably done at third. He's had a solid, if mostly unspectacular (other than that one time he was super hot hitting homers) 3-4 year run and has worked hard to go from a terrible fielder to an above average one, all while being a good, not great, hitter. He's been an important part of a consistent 90-game loser and it's time to start winning. Not this year, of course, be real, but next year maybe we can think about it.
Backing these nerds up we have the two headed crap factory of Eduardo Escobar and Eduardo Nunez who I still don't know why he was resigned. Escobar showed a weird flash of power last year with 35 doubles and is a capable defender all over the place so I like having him around. Nunez is terrible at everything.
Designated Hitter should be a fun spot with Kennys Vargas (who will also back-up at 1B) now here since he can hit the crap out of a baseball. Vargs knocked out nine dingers and ten doubles in just 234 plate appearances, racking up an isolated power metric that would have put him in the Top 40 in the majors if he had qualified. Considering he's like 16 years old or something that bodes well for the future. Assuming more experience helps move his walk and strikeout rates closer to his minor league numbers (a dangerous assumption, to be sure), he could be in for a big year. He crushed the ball in spring training with 1 HR every 14 ABs and everyone loves to watch fat guys launch baseballs out of the yard so expect him to be a fan favorite.
OUTFIELD: What a mess. Aaron Hicks ruined everything, and he's back in the minors again meaning Jordan Schafer, he of the career .621 OPS, will man center, flanked by the immobile Oswaldo Arcia and the ancient Torii Hunter in what is basically guaranteed to be the worst defensive outfield in the majors. Backing up a bunch of pitchers who don't strike anyone out. Great plan.
Ok I guess there's some upside. Arcia is still really young at 24 and he was one of just three players under 24 last year to hit more than 20 home runs. He still strikes out a ton but at least his power and walk rates got better last year, which is a good sign for future development. His fielding also improved from "oh my god" to "jeez this guy is terrible", which might be his ceiling. Hunter has been pretty much the same player the last five years, at least offensively, and if he can do it again and provide "leadership" or whatever he's probably worth having around. That being said, if you think he's any kind of defensive wizard anymore you're sorely mistaken as he's now well below average even at a corner spot (stupid Father Time!). That said he can't be any worse than the Willingham/Kubel/Parmelee trio of death that spent time out there last year, so he's got that going for him.
Schafer is the wild card, sort of, mainly because the Twins opted against giving Hicks a third year out of camp (or something radical like bringing Eddie Rosario up ahead of schedule) despite Schafer never really doing much of anything batted ball-wise. He's fast, bad at hitting, and white so you know he's gritty and full of hustle and heart, but in his 147 plate appearance sample with the Twins last year he managed to hit exactly league average and it was, by far, the most successful stint of his major league career. Somehow between the Twins and Braves last year he stole 30 bases (in 37 attempts) despite just 240 plate appearances which seems completely insane to me since "getting on base" isn't really in his wheelhouse but clearly he can run, which feels exciting. He can play a passable CF as well, so I guess it's better than throwing an inanimate carbon rod out there.
Outfield back-ups will include a handful of starts from Escobar, that god damn Nunez, and teeny tiny Shane Robinson who goes by Suga Shane on Twitter. He'll fit in with the Twins since he's proven he can't hit over 452 career plate appearances. He's a 30 year old non-prospect who didn't hit in the minors either until he was much older than his competition, but a mediocre Spring Training won him a job over Hicks, though perhaps giving Hicks a regular role at AAA is for the best and I really don't know who else would be better than Robinson since they didn't sign anybody else and let's be honest it probably would have been a former Twin who was well beyond his prime anyway. Robinson is a good fielder so he'll probably have some value plugging in as a defensive replacement in the late innings when the Twins stumble into a lead.
Overall, looking like a so-so offense. They'll most likely have above average hitters in 7 of the 9 spots and the other two either have serious bounce back potential (Mauer) or tremendous speed as an asset (Schafer). The bench is pretty bad unless Pinto bounces back but it's the American League so there probably won't be too much pinch hitting anyway. Switch hitting Escobar is the only possible lefty swinger off the bench but he's been brutal against righties in his career so yeah, I'd expect a lot of sticking with the main nine guys. It's a decent offense. The real problem is the pitching, which I don't have the heart, energy, or ambition to tackle right now. Later.
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