Is Eddie Rosario, like, Good?

As you are probably aware, the Twins are fighting for a playoff spot while at the same time showing us a glimpse of their future with a whole lot of younger players up and making contributions.  One of these is Eddie Rosario, who has used a good mix of hitting, fielding, and base running to end up ranked 4th on the team in WAR.  You may now be asking yourself why I would question if he is, like, good in that case.  Well, unfortunately there are some red flags.  They might not necessarily mean much or call him out as a fluke, but there are some things to worry about.

Rosario has put up a slash line of .274/.296/.452 so far this season.  Two of those numbers are respectable, but that awful OBP is bad enough to drag his OPS down to almost exactly the league average.  That's his red flag #1 - horrendous strike zone management.

He has 87 strikeouts this season against just 11 walks, which is pretty staggering.  His walk rate of 3.2% is the 6th worst in baseball among batters with at least 300 plate appearances, while his strikeout rate of 25.1% is the 34th worst.  The spread of nearly 22 percentage points is monstrous.  I could only find a few instances of other players with a similar spread, and they were either slap hitters (Chris Owings) or only ended up with that kind of spread because they strike out an absolute ridiculous amount (Randal Grichuk).  The good news is that both his rates are worse than what he put up in his minor league career so although he's always going to be a free swinger these extremes may just be growing pains.

His swing rate is the worst on the team (outside of Oswaldo Arcia), but his contact rates are ok - not great, but ok.  Interestingly it turns out major league teams aren't dumb, because less than half the pitches he sees are inside the strike zone and his percentage is the lowest on the team other than Kennys Vargas and Jorge Polanco.  Basically teams are throwing him bad pitches, he's swinging at those pitches, and he's missing those pitches.  Until he reigns in his hacking a bit that'll continue, and although you can have success being a free swinger it's much more difficult when you aren't getting anything to hit.  Keep an eye on this.

His second red flag, although not as big of one in my opinion, is his BABIP of .347, a generally unsustainable number.  Unlike last year's fluke Danny Santana, however, it's not that huge of an outlier based on his past.  His minor league BABIPs were almost always over .300 and he put up a few seasons in the .350 range, so though .347 is probably high it's not ridiculously high.  His line drive percentage isn't great and he pops up too much, but he has an excellent hard hit percentage which can help account for a greater than it should be BABIP.

Overall, Rosario is going to be a quality player.  The value he adds with his defense alone makes him a plus player, and advanced metrics (and the eye test) mark him as an excellent fielder both in terms of range and arm.  He's fast and a good base runner (base runs mark him as 2nd on the team behind Brian Dozier at things like taking the extra base) and his stolen base mark should get better with more experience.  How good he's going to be is going to depend on his bat, and that's going to depend on learning a bit more plate discipline.  I think he'll adjust in Year 2+, and he's going to be a fixture in the outfield for a long time.

Or at least I hope.  Wow.  Optimism.  Feels weird.

Tuesday Talkers

Going to be flipping between the Twins and the NBA Finals tonight, so might as well write some random stuff while doing those things.

- First off, I know we are all very excited about our little Byron Buxton and the just promoted to double-A Miguel Sano and with good reason.  Buxton is hitting .350/.444/.578 with 8 triples, 7 homers, and 26 steals while playing amazing defense and Sano hit .330/.424/.655 with 16 home runs in 56 games before his promotion.  No doubt these guys are crushing it and, assuming nothing significantly changes, both will be rated as top 10 prospects in all of baseball when next year's rankings come out.  It's very, very awesome, but the hype train might want to back up just a hair.

On the radio today I heard both Dubay and PA spout complete inanities about these guys (and yes, they are two of the biggest dummies when it comes to baseball among all people who have a public voice so I know they're almost going to say something stupid, but this just really bugged me).  Dubay's big call was that Sano would be a September call-up this year, which is wrong for two reasons.  First, you never go from A-ball to the major leagues in one season, it just doesn't happen unless somebody can prove me wrong but I'm sure it's extremely rare.  Even if he finishes the year tearing up AA like he did A I just can't see it happening.  Secondly, the money issue.  It's moot if he ends up starting 2014 in the majors, which I could see happening but kind of doubt it after Aaron Hicks started so slowly this year, but if they call him up in September guess what?  That major league service time clock gets going a year early.  The Twins are no longer cheap, but that doesn't mean they want to start giving out big money contracts a year early.  Won't happen.

The far more egregious and stupid comment came from PA which is something I assume we are all accustom to at this point, in that he said Buxton should be in the majors RIGHT NOW.  He also said if Buxton had started the year in the majors (yes this year) he would be as good or better than Aaron Hicks so far.  I'm not even going to start to break this doubt because it would be an insult to all of us, but I just don't get the PA popularity.  His knowledge of sports is extremely limited to NFL-only and he's only ok with that, his interview skills are subpar, and his personality is grating and annoying.  Yet, when I was listening to a Vikings game on the radio with a group of people one time somebody said, "Man I love PA" and then somebody else said "He's the best" and then everybody agreed.  I just don't get it.  Is it the raging homerism thing?  Do people love a homer announcer?  He's an idiot and a jackass and is stupid.  It's so confusing.  Sometimes I wonder if I'm living in some kind of weird dream world and this isn't real life.

- One other thing that's kind of getting lost in the Buxton/Sano hype is that Eddie Rosario was also promoted to AA along with Sano.  Rosario may not have the hype of the other two, but he's a pretty big deal and ranks consistently in the top 5 or top 10 on most Twins prospect lists, and is becoming even more valuable after his conversion from outfield to second base which, based on being promoted here, is likely going well.  He can hit (.329/.377/.527 this year) and if he can field at the 4-spot he may be the guy to finally fill that second base hole that's been on this team seemingly since Rod Carew.  Hurry up, Eddie, I can't take much more Brian Dozier.

-  Since I've been typing I've now seen Josh Willingham, Justin Morneau, and Oswaldo Arcia absolutely drill balls back-to-back-to-back off Cole Hamels and it makes one wonder - what is up with that dude?  Long time readers may remember that Hamels was my boyfriend for a while, but he's just been brutal this year.  Thing is, I can't find a single thing you can point to and say "that's the problem."  He's practically been the exact same pitcher this year as he's always been.  The only difference at all is batters are making more contact than usual when they swing at pitches in the strike zone (84% vs. 82%), he's given up more infield hits (16% vs. 11%), and more fly balls he's given up are going out of the park (13% vs. 11.5%).  All of that says his results have been more the result of a fluke than anything significant going on with him.  Then I see him basically put it on a tee for four straight Twin batters and I wonder if he's just making more mistakes this year - the higher contact rates in the zone and homer/flyball rates could back that up.  So, I guess I'm not sure yet what's his deal.  What am I, Galileo?

-  I actually had someone tell me they thought That's My Boy was a really good and funny movie.  No I didn't punch him immediately in the neck but only because we were at softball and we are on the same team and that would have caused all kinds of issues, but I kind of wanted to.

-  Speaking of movies, I caught a little bit of Reign of Fire recently, which is that movie with Christian Bale and Matthew McConaughey about dragons in a post apocalyptic world.   It's mostly a terrible movie, but Bale and McConaughey both rock and obviously dragons are like the bomb and stuff so every time I see it I ended up staying on the channel at least long enough to see a dragon fight and quite often end up watching the entire rest of the movie.  So if you're a fan of dragons and/or hot guys you should totally check it out on your netflix or hulu or whatever people watch stuff on these days.

-  The fact that Lebron James hasn't developed a true post game yet drives me crazy - almost as much as his constant bitching.  After the success of having him play the 4 in the Finals last year after Bosh got hurt he had to know they were going to be doing it a lot this season, but still he didn't develop any kind of offensive post moves.  I mean yeah he's still effective posting up and finding shooters or cutters, but his offensive game on the block is to put it on the floor and drive to the hoop.  Sure that works sometimes and he can get to the line that way as well, but can you imagine him with a turnaround jumper or a little jump hook or something?  I know it seems silly to criticize someone who just put up a season where he averaged 27, 8, & 7 while shooting 57%, but man, what if he had an actual post game?  That's fairly terrifying, in a boner inducing way.  Pretty sure he'd still bitch about everything though.

-  Wow the Spurs are just daring Lebron to take jumpers.  Seems to be working since he just bricked a wide open three.
 
 - Should be a very interesting U.S. Open.  From what I've heard the rough will be rough, but tons of rain will make the greens incredibly soft and slow so you'll see a whole lot of conservative play off the tee (to keep in in the fairway) and then aggressive shots into the green.  Sounds like a recipe for an awfully low winning score, which the U.S. Open hates, but there are three par-3s over 235 yards which is going to equalize things a bit, as well as only two par-5s to keep scores in check.  I know a lot of people like to say stuff like "I like it better when it's super tough because then the cream really rises to the top" but really the last few winners when the winning score was even or worse were Webb Simpson, Graeme McDowell, Angel Cabrera, Geoff Ogilvy, and Michael Campbell while the last few winners at -5 or better are Rory McIlroy, Jim Furyk, Tiger Woods, Ernie Els, Lee Janzen, and Payne Stewart.  I mean, that's a pretty clearly better second grouping, right?  Just proves my theory that people are idiots.  Man, I got a lot of evidence for that theorem.  I'll probably be in a magazine soon.

-  Wow Lebron has just been terrible.  Kawhi Leonard refusing to let him drive by giving him the jumper and James can't hit anything.  He's 2-11 from the field right now and if it wasn't for the incredible, incomparable Mike Miller being 5-5 from three this one would be over already.  And now that's 2-12, and he's whining to the ref.  I think I hate this guy.

-  Oh yeah, and I don't have any favorites for the U.S. Open yet.  I need to take a look at a few things before I give you your good futures bets, but without spending too much time on it I think Steve Stricker and Matt Kuchar would be the two I'd throw money at if I had to right now with no time to research.

-  Wow.  This got out of hand quickly.  Like Game 2 but in the Spurs favor.  It's a 31 point lead.  Gary Neal and Danny Green have combined for 51 points so far.  Green by himself has outscored Duncan+Ginobilli+Parker.  Crazy game.  But crazy awesome.

Twins Prospect Update

With the Twins having been completely out of it since the second week of the season your thoughts end up turning to the future.  Then, when you realize all those guys suck too, you dig a little deeper into the younger prospects.  With that in mind, here are the first 10 guys I thought of to check on in the Twins' system.  They might not be the top 10 guys, but they're all definitely guys who, at one point or another, were well thought of in the system and most still all are.  I didn't look up Alex Wimmers because he blew out his arm and is thus dead to me because, much like the Twins' brass, I don't believe in that sissy shit like surgery.  If it can't be fixed with spit, dirt, or leeches then I'm not interested.

Twins training staff in action

1.  Miguel Sano, 3B, Beloit (A).  You probably know who this guy is because he's universally hailed as the Twins top prospect with Baseball America ranking him #18 in all of baseball and ESPN slotting him at #28.  And in a season full of disappointment, Sano has delivered once again with a .262/.382/.526 line with 25 dingers in single-A.  His average and power have dipped a bit from previous years and the .262 might not look that impressive, but considering he's only 19 (or so they say) it's nothing to get too worked up about especially considering his incredible power and plate discipline for that age.  He may end up out-growing 3B and end up at 1B or OF, but wherever he plays he can hit.  Plus he's built like an absolute monster.  I seriously can't wait for this guy to get to the bigs.  I might just get a Beloit jersey.  Also this,

Sano stood in the batter's box awhile to watch his homer against relief pitcher Carmine Giardiana. He trotted the bases, but virtually stopped a few feet before touching the plate, taking off his batting helmet as Kernels catcher Abel Baker barked at him.
Sano glared at the Kernels dugout after finally touching the plate, with Kernels players continuing to give him significant grief. He took a step toward Baker, and the dugouts began to empty, with umpires Fernando Rodriguez and Paul Clemons, as well as both teams' coaching staffs, doing a good job of squelching what could have been an ugly scene.

2.  Eddie Rosario, 2B/OF, Beloit (A).  Sano's teammate with the Snappers, Rosario also saw his numbers dip a bit with the promotion to A ball but also like Sano he's young (20) and the change isn't so drastic there's need to worry.  He's still hitting over .300 this year and although his slugging has dropped from high .600s to around .500 this season that's from a drop in homers as his doubles remain around the same.  Additionally, the move this year to second base means his offense is less important as long as he can field his position, so keep an eye on that.  Rosario was ranked #50 in the majors by ESPN and with the slight drop in production canceled out by the move to middle infield I'd expect him in about the same range next year.

3.  Byron Buxton, OF, Elizabethton (Rookie).  Buxton is the guy the Twins took #2 overall in this year's draft, and I'm interested to see what the early scouting on him is.  He hasn't exactly set the world on fire, hitting just .211 between two rookies leagues this year, but his OBP is impressive for such a low average and the biggest question on his was his power and he knocked out 4 homers in 102 plate appearances in the Gulf Coast League.  His production won't matter for a couple of years - he'll continue to be highly rated based on potential and "toolsy-ness" - and he's just 18 and right out of high school afterall, but keep an eye on how he does repeating rookie ball next year.  My biggest fear is we have another Ndudi Ebi here.  And sure, I could have gone with Brien Taylor or Adam Johnson (go Twins) but come on, how many chances to you get bring up Ndudi Ebi in a conversation?

4.  Aaron Hicks, OF, New Britain (AA).  Buxton before Buxton was Buxton, Hicks was picked fourteenth by the Twins out of high school in 2008 as a toolsy guy and found himself ranked in the top 45 prospects by Baseball America each of the next three years, before being unranked this season due to diminishing returns.  Not that it's time to give up on him.  Athleticism doesn't just disappear unless you're Shawn Kemp or Willie Mays Hayes and there's no indication anything has happened to Hicks, he's just seen his numbers dip but this year has been a nice rebound in AA with basically his entire slash line going up (from .242/.354/.368 to .281/.381/.453) and a career high in homers with 12.  He's still just 22 and he's made a steady progression from Rookie ball to AA in his career thus far so there's no need to panic just yet, but next year is a big one for Hicks.

5.  Kyle Gibson, P, Fort Myers (A+).  If you're like me Gibson is one of the guys you care about the most, simply because he's a power pitcher with filthy stuff who struck guys out like it was his job (which it is) before getting hurt and needing Tommy John surgery (which I assume made the Twins' upper management happy since they'd probably hope he'd stop striking people out all the time).  He had made it all the way to AAA before he blew out the arm and although his numbers weren't great at Rochester they'd been stellar all the way through the system prior to that.  In his rehab so far this year (through 10 games between Rookie and A ball) he's put up an ERA of 2.55 with a 0.96 WHIP and 17 Ks in 17.2 innings vs. just 5 walks.  Good stuff.  Here's to hoping Gibson is in the rotation next season.  No, seriously, here's to hoping.  I have a vodka & tonic in my hand right now and I'm totally drinking it.

6.  Levi Michael, SS, Fort Myers (A+).  You probably remember Michael because he was the Twins' first round pick last season at #30, the 21-year old shortstop from North Carolina who everyone said like hurry up and get up to the majors because this SS situation blows.  Well don't hold your breath.  Despite Brian Dozier getting booted back to Rochester for some weird reason with two weeks left in the minor league season I don't think Michael will be there next year unless he gets some of those sweet Melky Cabrera roids.  He hit just .236/.327/.299 this year, and although the walk rate is nice pretty much everything else is awful, particularly he's Punto-ian lack of power.  Since he's a shortstop I'd make a comment on his fielding here, but I have to admit I have no idea what a .962 fielding percentage or 4.33 range factor mean, so instead look boobs:

Classic distraction technique

7.  Oswaldo Arcia, OF, New Britain (AA).  Arcia is an interesting case because he may have the best numbers of anybody on this list (possibly outside Sano) but he's never appeared on Baseball America's top prospects lists.  He hit .375 at Elizabethton in 2010, is hitting .315 this year between Fort Myers and New Britian, and has never hit below .290 once in five minor league seasons (.275 in 2009).   And he's done it the whole way with good power (more gap power, but he's still hit double-digits homers three times) and the last two seasons he's even learned to mix in some walks.  He's been so steady throughout his career I kind of think he's probably the most sure thing in the system.  He's still just 21 but in five seasons his career line between rookie ball and AA is .315/.371/.533.  Dude's a pure pimp, and he's finally starting to get recognized-getting a spot in the futures game this year (and going 1-2 with a double).  I'd bet he shows up on some lists somewhere this year.  CALLED IT.

8.  Jose Berrios, P, Elizabethton (Rookie).  This is the guy the Twins took at #32 this year with the draft pick they were awarded for losing husky camera whore Mike Cuddyer as an 18-year old out of Puerto Rico and he has been flat-out unhittable in rookie ball.  Between Elizabethton and the Gulf Coast League Berrios has thrown 25.2 innings with a combined ERA of 0.70 and WHIP of 0.55, striking out a staggering 43 while walking just 4.  Guys.  That's a 10-1 K-to-BB ratio.  Since hitting E-Town he's made two starts, going a total of 9 innings and allowing 3 hits, 1 walk, 0 runs, and striking out 16.  I mean holy F.  Small sample size and all yes, but, like the Shermanator, confidence is high.

Don't act like you didn't know exactly what I was talking about.

9.  Joe Benson, OF, New Britian (AA).  Benson's the one guy on this list we've already seen in the majors, putting up a .239/.270/.352 line in 21 games last season which was apparently enough to get Baseball America to name him the #99 prospect in baseball and for the Twins to assign him to AAA to start this year even though he'd never played there before.  And it was a disaster.  Benson hit just .179 in 28 games at Rochester before getting busted back to AA and then injured his wrist, required surgery.  The good news is that he completely tore up Rookie and A ball pitching upon his return.  The bad news is he's failed to break a .190 average at either AAA or AA this year with a Revere-esque slugging percentage and he's struck out nearly 30% of his at-bats through his minor league career.  I don't want to say he's a lost cause just yet, but at 24 it's time to shit or get off the pot.  Definitely the most disappointing guy on this list.  Like Cooper Manning.  Also this:

Look at this hair.  LOOK AT IT!

10.  Deolis Guerra, P, Rochester (AAA).   Although everyone on the list is more important to the future of the Twins, Guerra is someone I keep following because he's important to the past - the last link to the Johan Santana trade.   Humber is gone and threw a perfect game, Mulvey is dead or something I don't know, and Carlos Gomez was traded for J.J. Hardy (GOOD!) who was then traded for two shithead relievers (BAD!).  So Guerra is it.   There's good news and bad news here.  GOOD:  Dominated AA this year.  BAD:  Sucked at AAA, career ERA of 6 with a 5.55 this year.  BAD:  Basically has been given up on as a starter, not starting a game in 2012 and only 10 of 37 in 2011.  GOOD:  Has struck out more than a batter per inning since being turned into a full time reliever.  BAD:  Sucks.  GOOD:  Could maybe be a decent reliever.

So yeah.  The entire haul for Johan Santana has been 20 relief innings out of Humber where he got completely rocked, one+ inning out of Kevin Mulvey (that's it, really?) where he gave up 6 hits and 4 runs, two shitty fucking years of Jon Rauch who would later go on to fuck me over, two sometimes exciting but ultimately frustrating years of Carlos Gomez, an injury-plagued and mediocre year from J.J. Hardy (who would go on to become one of the best shortstops in the league the year after they traded him), and 24 absolutely crappy innings from one of the relievers they traded Hardy for, releasing the other one (or whatever) without getting a single major league inning out of him.  So yeah, you could say Guerra is pretty important even if his absolute upside is a decent set-up man.  Let's get 2-3 years out of him and call it a day.  Yes?  We all agree?  Sweet.  Time for some punch and pie.