Twins Prospect Update

With the Twins having been completely out of it since the second week of the season your thoughts end up turning to the future.  Then, when you realize all those guys suck too, you dig a little deeper into the younger prospects.  With that in mind, here are the first 10 guys I thought of to check on in the Twins' system.  They might not be the top 10 guys, but they're all definitely guys who, at one point or another, were well thought of in the system and most still all are.  I didn't look up Alex Wimmers because he blew out his arm and is thus dead to me because, much like the Twins' brass, I don't believe in that sissy shit like surgery.  If it can't be fixed with spit, dirt, or leeches then I'm not interested.

Twins training staff in action

1.  Miguel Sano, 3B, Beloit (A).  You probably know who this guy is because he's universally hailed as the Twins top prospect with Baseball America ranking him #18 in all of baseball and ESPN slotting him at #28.  And in a season full of disappointment, Sano has delivered once again with a .262/.382/.526 line with 25 dingers in single-A.  His average and power have dipped a bit from previous years and the .262 might not look that impressive, but considering he's only 19 (or so they say) it's nothing to get too worked up about especially considering his incredible power and plate discipline for that age.  He may end up out-growing 3B and end up at 1B or OF, but wherever he plays he can hit.  Plus he's built like an absolute monster.  I seriously can't wait for this guy to get to the bigs.  I might just get a Beloit jersey.  Also this,

Sano stood in the batter's box awhile to watch his homer against relief pitcher Carmine Giardiana. He trotted the bases, but virtually stopped a few feet before touching the plate, taking off his batting helmet as Kernels catcher Abel Baker barked at him.
Sano glared at the Kernels dugout after finally touching the plate, with Kernels players continuing to give him significant grief. He took a step toward Baker, and the dugouts began to empty, with umpires Fernando Rodriguez and Paul Clemons, as well as both teams' coaching staffs, doing a good job of squelching what could have been an ugly scene.

2.  Eddie Rosario, 2B/OF, Beloit (A).  Sano's teammate with the Snappers, Rosario also saw his numbers dip a bit with the promotion to A ball but also like Sano he's young (20) and the change isn't so drastic there's need to worry.  He's still hitting over .300 this year and although his slugging has dropped from high .600s to around .500 this season that's from a drop in homers as his doubles remain around the same.  Additionally, the move this year to second base means his offense is less important as long as he can field his position, so keep an eye on that.  Rosario was ranked #50 in the majors by ESPN and with the slight drop in production canceled out by the move to middle infield I'd expect him in about the same range next year.

3.  Byron Buxton, OF, Elizabethton (Rookie).  Buxton is the guy the Twins took #2 overall in this year's draft, and I'm interested to see what the early scouting on him is.  He hasn't exactly set the world on fire, hitting just .211 between two rookies leagues this year, but his OBP is impressive for such a low average and the biggest question on his was his power and he knocked out 4 homers in 102 plate appearances in the Gulf Coast League.  His production won't matter for a couple of years - he'll continue to be highly rated based on potential and "toolsy-ness" - and he's just 18 and right out of high school afterall, but keep an eye on how he does repeating rookie ball next year.  My biggest fear is we have another Ndudi Ebi here.  And sure, I could have gone with Brien Taylor or Adam Johnson (go Twins) but come on, how many chances to you get bring up Ndudi Ebi in a conversation?

4.  Aaron Hicks, OF, New Britain (AA).  Buxton before Buxton was Buxton, Hicks was picked fourteenth by the Twins out of high school in 2008 as a toolsy guy and found himself ranked in the top 45 prospects by Baseball America each of the next three years, before being unranked this season due to diminishing returns.  Not that it's time to give up on him.  Athleticism doesn't just disappear unless you're Shawn Kemp or Willie Mays Hayes and there's no indication anything has happened to Hicks, he's just seen his numbers dip but this year has been a nice rebound in AA with basically his entire slash line going up (from .242/.354/.368 to .281/.381/.453) and a career high in homers with 12.  He's still just 22 and he's made a steady progression from Rookie ball to AA in his career thus far so there's no need to panic just yet, but next year is a big one for Hicks.

5.  Kyle Gibson, P, Fort Myers (A+).  If you're like me Gibson is one of the guys you care about the most, simply because he's a power pitcher with filthy stuff who struck guys out like it was his job (which it is) before getting hurt and needing Tommy John surgery (which I assume made the Twins' upper management happy since they'd probably hope he'd stop striking people out all the time).  He had made it all the way to AAA before he blew out the arm and although his numbers weren't great at Rochester they'd been stellar all the way through the system prior to that.  In his rehab so far this year (through 10 games between Rookie and A ball) he's put up an ERA of 2.55 with a 0.96 WHIP and 17 Ks in 17.2 innings vs. just 5 walks.  Good stuff.  Here's to hoping Gibson is in the rotation next season.  No, seriously, here's to hoping.  I have a vodka & tonic in my hand right now and I'm totally drinking it.

6.  Levi Michael, SS, Fort Myers (A+).  You probably remember Michael because he was the Twins' first round pick last season at #30, the 21-year old shortstop from North Carolina who everyone said like hurry up and get up to the majors because this SS situation blows.  Well don't hold your breath.  Despite Brian Dozier getting booted back to Rochester for some weird reason with two weeks left in the minor league season I don't think Michael will be there next year unless he gets some of those sweet Melky Cabrera roids.  He hit just .236/.327/.299 this year, and although the walk rate is nice pretty much everything else is awful, particularly he's Punto-ian lack of power.  Since he's a shortstop I'd make a comment on his fielding here, but I have to admit I have no idea what a .962 fielding percentage or 4.33 range factor mean, so instead look boobs:

Classic distraction technique

7.  Oswaldo Arcia, OF, New Britain (AA).  Arcia is an interesting case because he may have the best numbers of anybody on this list (possibly outside Sano) but he's never appeared on Baseball America's top prospects lists.  He hit .375 at Elizabethton in 2010, is hitting .315 this year between Fort Myers and New Britian, and has never hit below .290 once in five minor league seasons (.275 in 2009).   And he's done it the whole way with good power (more gap power, but he's still hit double-digits homers three times) and the last two seasons he's even learned to mix in some walks.  He's been so steady throughout his career I kind of think he's probably the most sure thing in the system.  He's still just 21 but in five seasons his career line between rookie ball and AA is .315/.371/.533.  Dude's a pure pimp, and he's finally starting to get recognized-getting a spot in the futures game this year (and going 1-2 with a double).  I'd bet he shows up on some lists somewhere this year.  CALLED IT.

8.  Jose Berrios, P, Elizabethton (Rookie).  This is the guy the Twins took at #32 this year with the draft pick they were awarded for losing husky camera whore Mike Cuddyer as an 18-year old out of Puerto Rico and he has been flat-out unhittable in rookie ball.  Between Elizabethton and the Gulf Coast League Berrios has thrown 25.2 innings with a combined ERA of 0.70 and WHIP of 0.55, striking out a staggering 43 while walking just 4.  Guys.  That's a 10-1 K-to-BB ratio.  Since hitting E-Town he's made two starts, going a total of 9 innings and allowing 3 hits, 1 walk, 0 runs, and striking out 16.  I mean holy F.  Small sample size and all yes, but, like the Shermanator, confidence is high.

Don't act like you didn't know exactly what I was talking about.

9.  Joe Benson, OF, New Britian (AA).  Benson's the one guy on this list we've already seen in the majors, putting up a .239/.270/.352 line in 21 games last season which was apparently enough to get Baseball America to name him the #99 prospect in baseball and for the Twins to assign him to AAA to start this year even though he'd never played there before.  And it was a disaster.  Benson hit just .179 in 28 games at Rochester before getting busted back to AA and then injured his wrist, required surgery.  The good news is that he completely tore up Rookie and A ball pitching upon his return.  The bad news is he's failed to break a .190 average at either AAA or AA this year with a Revere-esque slugging percentage and he's struck out nearly 30% of his at-bats through his minor league career.  I don't want to say he's a lost cause just yet, but at 24 it's time to shit or get off the pot.  Definitely the most disappointing guy on this list.  Like Cooper Manning.  Also this:

Look at this hair.  LOOK AT IT!

10.  Deolis Guerra, P, Rochester (AAA).   Although everyone on the list is more important to the future of the Twins, Guerra is someone I keep following because he's important to the past - the last link to the Johan Santana trade.   Humber is gone and threw a perfect game, Mulvey is dead or something I don't know, and Carlos Gomez was traded for J.J. Hardy (GOOD!) who was then traded for two shithead relievers (BAD!).  So Guerra is it.   There's good news and bad news here.  GOOD:  Dominated AA this year.  BAD:  Sucked at AAA, career ERA of 6 with a 5.55 this year.  BAD:  Basically has been given up on as a starter, not starting a game in 2012 and only 10 of 37 in 2011.  GOOD:  Has struck out more than a batter per inning since being turned into a full time reliever.  BAD:  Sucks.  GOOD:  Could maybe be a decent reliever.

So yeah.  The entire haul for Johan Santana has been 20 relief innings out of Humber where he got completely rocked, one+ inning out of Kevin Mulvey (that's it, really?) where he gave up 6 hits and 4 runs, two shitty fucking years of Jon Rauch who would later go on to fuck me over, two sometimes exciting but ultimately frustrating years of Carlos Gomez, an injury-plagued and mediocre year from J.J. Hardy (who would go on to become one of the best shortstops in the league the year after they traded him), and 24 absolutely crappy innings from one of the relievers they traded Hardy for, releasing the other one (or whatever) without getting a single major league inning out of him.  So yeah, you could say Guerra is pretty important even if his absolute upside is a decent set-up man.  Let's get 2-3 years out of him and call it a day.  Yes?  We all agree?  Sweet.  Time for some punch and pie.

Where for art thou, Deolis Guerra?

Yes, I know we are in the heart of the Big Ten season, but if I write too many times consecutively about Gopher basketball I start to have heart palpitations mixed with a deep depression, and since I already took every pill in the house (uppers, downers, hallucinagins, antidepressants and sexual performance enhancers all in play) after the Indiana loss, my only possible solace here is to turn to Twins talk.  Since it's not even February yet, optimism can reign supreme.  Maybe.  Until June, at least.

Keith Law of ESPN.com put out his list of the top 100 prospects in baseball, and I'm going to go ahead and give a few comments about those players of which I am knowledgeable enough to speak, and a few that I'm probably not.  Full list is at that link right there above.  If you still have your little heart set on reading about the Gophers, the preview of the Ohio State game is in the post directly below this one.  [SPOILER:  I bet they lose.].

The interesting people, in reverse order:

 97.  Miguel Sano, SS, Twins.  You remember this guy, he's the supposed 16 year old from the Dominican the Twins signed this summer when they shockingly opened up the wallet.  He signed too late last year so there really isn't any way to evaluate him against professional pitching, but he's supposed to have all the tools.  He projects to end up becoming a 3b, which means he'll probably be ready to take over just as Danny Valencia is leaving to sign a 7-year, $140-million contract with the Yankees.


91.  Jose Iglesias, SS, Red Sox.  I mostly just included him because being given that name must have sucked something fierce.  Also, Law says he could end up as an "Adam Everett" at worst.  Dude, that's pretty bad.  I wouldn't be using that as a positive argument.

90.  Jake Arrieta, SP, Orioles.  He finished last year in triple-A and is already 23, so there's a good chance he'll be in the bigs this year.  The Orioles are actually quietly starting to move back in the right direction after many, many, many years of spending stupidly and making really dumb decisions.  They have a nice lineup this year, and a good number of young arms.  If everything works out, they might end up challenging for second in the division sometime in the next ten years.

89.  Kyle Gibson, SP, Twins.  Above average command and control, three good pitches, a lot of groundballs, and a 93 mph heater - sounds like a prototypical Twins pitcher, except this one was projected to be the 10-12th pick in the draft.  The Twins stole him at 22 due to a stress fracture in his arm, but all indications are he's back to normal.  And hopefully not like the Liriano back-to-normal, but a real back-to-normal.

87.  Aaron Crow, SP, Royals.  Could be a Greinke-level monster once he gets to the bigs.  I'm hoping the Royals do something really stupid and end up trading him for like, Alfonso Soriano or something just to get him out of the Twins' division.

73.  Fernando Martinez, OF, Mets.  I think this guy has been on the list for about five years now, but has yet to make any real progress due to constant injuries.  He was the top prospect in the Mets system at one point, but, as Phil Humber, Carlos Gomez, Deolis Guerra, and Kevin Mulvey have shown us, that doesn't necessarily mean squat.

72.  Mike Leake, SP, Reds.  I don't think this is Kelly's dad, since they spell their last name's differently and he'd be far too old at this point.

70.  Austin Jackson, OF, Yankees.  If this name rings a bell it's probably because at one point his name was being bandied about in the Johan discussion all those many years ago, when we were still optimistic that we would end up getting more than two seasons of great center field defense and a whole bunch of flailing about at the plate out of the best pitcher of the 00s.  Well, now he's in the Tigers' system, coming over for Curtis Granderson.  At 23 and with five years in the minors, it's probably now or never.

58.  Tyler Flowers, C, White Sox.  Coming soon to a Twins' game near you.  He might start the year in the minors, but he'll be in the majors at some point and might even end up starting by the end of the year.  His last two seasons he's OPSed .939 and .921 at AAA and A+ ball, although his defense is subpar at this point.

57.  Jose Tabata, OF, Pirates.  This is the main guy the Pirates picked up in the Damaso Marte/Xavier Nady trade with the Yankees, so it would be pretty sweet if he ends up being good.  Plus, I'm still rooting for the Pirates.  I think they're starting to do some smart things, and this would be a big step in the right direction - and it's starting get late on his clock, so a good year this year would be a nice start.

54.  Alcides Escobar, SS, Brewers.  This is why they traded J.J. Hardy.  He should be in the bigs this year, so we'll see if that works out for them.  Well, it pretty much already will when Carlos Gomez turns into the next Tim Raines, but we'll see how the SS part works out.

52.  Hank Conger, C, Angels.  Just wanted to point out that this guy's name is Hank and he's Asian.  That's weird.

42.  Wilson Ramos, C, Twins.  There's no doubt this guy can hit a ton and is a very good catcher as well, as long as he can stay healthy.  If the Twins end up not signing Mauer, he's the catcher of the future.  If they do, he's going to be a very valuable chip - the kind that could be used to grab some valuable help for a pennant race at the trade deadline.  I'm just kidding of course, you know they'll never end up trading him, regardless of what kind of help is available that they would need.

40.  Kyle Drabek, SP, Blue Jays.  Maybe the key to the Halladay/Lee deal, Drabek has a chance to end up as a top-end pitcher if he can recover all the way from Tommy John surgery.  He returned last year and had a very good showing at A and AA ball, so things look good for the kid. 


33.  Chris Carter, 1B, Athletics.  I say first baseman, but it's pretty clear this guy is really more of a DH.  There's no doubt he can hit, though.  He hit 25 home runs in the minors in 2007, 39 in 2008, and 28 in 2009 (while hitting .329/.422/.570).  I would anticipate him starting at AAA, but we should see him in the majors this year - probably taking Jesse Crain deep.

30.  Josh Vitters, 3B, Cubs.  I just get a kick out of this guy because he just hates to walk.  Hates it.  In his minor-league career he's just 26 times in 830 pro plate appearances.  For reference, that's the same amount of walks Carlos Gomez had in his first year with the Twins, but Gomez had 200 less plate appearances, and nine fewer than Delmon Young had, again in about 200 less at bats.  I mean, this guy might very well be insane.

28.  Madison Bumgarner, SP, Giants.  Was a top-5 or top-10 prospect on pretty much everybody's list at the beginning of last year, but has fallen a bit out of favor due to a drop in velocity.  Of course, he looked great in his 10 major-league innings last year, posting a 1.80 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP with a nice 9.0 K/9 ratio.  Velocity drop or no, those are really impressive numbers for a 19-year old major leaguer.  I'm stunned that he's as low as 28th.  Stupifyed, really.  Like a spell from Ginny Weasley's wand.

25.  Zack Britton, SP, Orioles.  Just another young O's pitcher like I was talking about before, although he's probably not quite major-league ready just yet.  

22.  Tyler Matzek, SP, Rockies.  I just wanted to mention him here because he's the top prospect in the Rockies' system and the Rocks are my National League team.  He's brand spanking new, just picked last year right out of high school, so we have no data to look at, but he's apparently already got four pretty good pitches.  Could be the next Jason Marquis - stay tuned.

19.  Aaron Hicks, OF, Twins.  I feel encouraged by having a Twin in the top 20, even if the team's overall farm system is only ranked 13th overall.  Basically the scouting report on this kid is that he's a true five-tool prospect, who, although he has a ways to go to completely realize those tools, has as much potential as anybody, especially for a 19-year old.  He's everything we wanted Carlos Gomez to be.

16.  Aroldis Chapman, SP, Reds.  I smell bust.  Way to blow your load on an absolute question mark, Cincinnati.  Seriously, you outbid the Yankees for a Cuban.  I have a feeling this was kind of like an auction for something you don't really want, but you're sure somebody else wants and you want to keep bidding them up, trying to make them pay more.  Then they stop bidding when you're winning, and you're like "oh shit."

17 & 15.  Jeremy Hellickson and Wade Davis, SPs, Rays.  Just in case you thought the Rays didn't have enough young, potential superstars.  Davis cracked the majors last year and looked good in his six starts and should start the year as part of the Rays' rotation, and Hellickson might join him there after having a very good year in AAA in 2009.


13.  Neftali Perez, SP, Rangers.  The first of three Rangers in the top 13 on this list, and that doesn't even count Elvis Andrus, last season's runner-up for AL Rookie-of-the-Year.  Or Nelson Cruz, who made the all-star team in hi second season.  Or Chris Davis, who took a step back last year but hit 17 homers in 317 PAs as a rookie two years ago.  Or their bunch of young pitching prospects.  How did the Rangers suddenly end up looking so promising?
  
11.  Brian Matusz, SP, Orioles.  Yet another Oriole pitcher.  Should be in the rotation from the get-go this season.

9.  Justin Smoak, 1B, Rangers.  Another Ranger.  Should be a better fielding, switch-hitting Billy Butler with more power.  I'm already scared.

8.  Dustin Ackley, OF/1B, Mariners.  The second-pick in last year's draft, Ackley is the rare position player who is returning from Tommy John surgery - thus the move from the OF to 1B.  The Mariners have discussed making him a 2B, which with his combination of hitting for average/hitting for power/plate discipline, would have a very good chance of making him a perennial all-star.

7.  Martin Perez, SP, Rangers.  The last of the Rangers.  I've never even heard of this guy, but I thought I should put him in here since I'm all up on Texas's nuts and everything.

4.  Buster Posey, C, Giants.  That's either the best name I've ever heard, or the worst name I've ever heard.

3.  Carlos Santana, C, Indians.  You got the kinda lovin' that can be so smooth, yeah, give me heart, make it real, or else forget about it.  (obvious, but I bet you laughed anyway.  or smiled at least.  I bet you smiled.  Come on.  It was funnier than Leno.  Admit that much you tough-love son of a bitch).

2.  Stephen Strasburg, SP, Nationals.  Putting Strasburg second reeks of either contrarianism or an overreaction to his mediocre showing in fall ball.  Either way, there's little doubt he's going to be a star.  When your downside is as a #2 starter, you know you've got potential.  Of course, there's always the ballad of Brien Taylor, if you need a reminder of how potential doens't always = success.

1.  Jason Heyward, OF, Braves.  I hadn't heard of this dude before, which embarrasses me somewhat, but he ripped the crap out of AA pitching last year, and had a lot of success in a very short AAA stint to close the year.  Law says he'll be a star, so I guess we should pay some attention here.


There's the list.  There were four notable omissions, or at least there were four names that popped into my head without really thinking about it, so I'll touch on them quickly before I close:

1.  Ben Revere, OF, Twins.  Depending on who you ask, he's either a future star (John Sickels has him #2 in the system), or nothing more than Juan Pierre (Law's concern).  I'm sure you're an idiot who thinks Juan Pierre is good because he's fast and hits right around .300, but that's because you're stupid and I wish I was a GM and you were a GM and then I could trade you Pierre and get way too much for him and you'd feel good about it.

God you're dumb.  Anyway, I've seen his absolute upside is Kenny Lofton, which would be pretty good.  Let's all hope for that, and not run around trying to make out wiht Juan Pierre, ok?

2.  Deolis Guerra, P, Twins.  Sigh.  The last remaining piece of from the trading of Johan.  God I miss him so much.  Instead we have this guy.  He doesn't make Law's top 10 list for the Twins, and he doesn't make Sickels' top 20.  He hasn't posed an ERA under 4.01 in the last three years.  FML.


3.  Tim Alderson, P, Pirates.  Notable because this is who the Giants traded to get Freddy Sanchez.  At one point considered a pretty big-time prospect, it seems Alderson has fallen out of favor, ranking #6 on Law's Pirate list and #5 on Sickels' list - not bad, but not as elite as he once was.  Prospect in free-fall, or underrated?  It's the Pirates, so I'm going to go with the free-fall thing.


4.  Scott Sizemore, 2B, Tigers.  I actually only know of him because when I learned Polanco might be available I started doing some digging into the fan/blog world of the Tigers and found out most fans were just fine with getting rid of Placido because Sizemore (who I assume is related to either Grady or Tom) was waiting in the wings.  He broke his ankle like some kind of girl late in the year last season, but he still ranks #6 on Sickels' list and #5 on Law's of overall Tiger prospects.  Expect to be annoyed by him early and often.

 
So there's your list.  Four Twin prospects can't be bad, especially considering the team is fairly young as is.  The one major criticism I've seen of the Twins' system is that there isn't much there that is ready right now, but it's in decent shape for future years and I have no problem with that.  Of course, if they don't sign Mauer I'll probably just kill myself along with the rest of the state.  They all worship him zombie-like, but I can't fault them because he's really just that good (although most of you cretins worship him for the wrong reasons).  If there is no signing, short of a trade to Texas for Teagarden, Andrus, Smoak, and Perez, I am pretty sure I'm just going give up and move to either New York or Pittsburgh.  At least you know enough to either believe or give up in those states.  I'm sick of these games here.  It's like taking some broad to the drive in, you don't know what you're getting.  I'd rather take the slut or the good-girl, not some middle of road confusing person.  I dont' know if you can tell, but I suspect you can, I've been getting progressively drunker as this post has gone on.  At this point I've already given up and am trying to figure out ways to trade Mauer and Morneau for more prospects.

"Are you guys ready?  We better get going if we're going to stay ahead of the weather."

Oopsies

Looks like that Johan deal keeps getting worse and worse for the Twins and moving-up-the-worst-GMs-list-with-a-bullet Bill Smith after Kevin Mulvey got rocked by the retarded at hitting A's in his first real outing (a one-batter one-out appearance on Monday doesn't count, mostly because I didn't see it.)

Yep, this afternoon against a team that ranks third from the bottom of the AL in runs and last in batting average, slugging percentage, and OPS raked Mulvey in his only inning of work for six hits and four runs before being promptly sent back to AAA in an exchange for The Necklace. To be fair, the A's have a pretty intimidating lineup. I mean, with names like Scott Hairston, Landon Powell, and Rajai Davis, giving up six hits should probably be considered a success.

This makes the second of the three pitchers acquired in the Santana deal to hit the bigs and flame out. Philly Humber was up to start the season, but after putting up a 12.46 ERA in four unimpressive games, he was placed on waivers. Luckily for the Twins, he was so crappy that nobody wanted him, so back to AAA it was.

At least Mulvey still has a shot to develop into a serviceable major leaguer, with an ERA under four in seventeen triple A starts this season and a respectable 2-1 K/BB ratio. Humber, on the other hand, may be a lost cause, as his unclaimed waiver trip suggests. An ERA over six in sixteen starts with a WHIP over 1.6 suggests his new upside might be a middle reliever.

The third pitcher, Deolis Guerra, continues to get less and less impressive despite a recent promotion to double A. After a promising 2006 in A ball, where he put up an ERA of 2.20 and a 1.17 WHIP, he's failed to put up anything resembling a comparable season, with an ERA of almost five in about three seasons at high-A, and is up over five in his three appearances at AA.

Of course, Guerra is just 20 years old, very young for double A, and has still been very impressive at times, but the reviews sound less and less awesome as times goes on.

Gomez at least seems to be improving, albeit quite slowly, but when all is said and done he might end up being the only major league player in the deal. Hopefully I'm wrong, and hopefully this is the second coming of the haul the Indians got when they traded Bartolo Colon to the Expos (Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore, Brandon Phillips, and Lee Stevens), but don't count on it.

At least Halladay is on the market. Maybe we can get him for Mulvey, Humber, Guerra, and Gomez.

- I'll also mention here because when the hell else am I going to bother with it that Ricky Rubio has decided he is leaving his current team whether he can reach an agreement with the Wolves or not. I'm not exactly sure what this all means, but I almost made it through that entire article and I think it means if the Wolves can't work something out with him he could jump to another team and creating a whole new headache world of problems. I'm starting to think this Rubio kid is Samantha Ronson, and the Wolves are Lindsay Lohan, chasing and chasing and chasing and ending up getting locked out of the house without a bra.

- Speaking of bras, we are watching some show now that has Susan Ward in it and she looks like a mom now. I prefer to think of her like this:
Good god. Actually, just go ahead and google image her. There's not a single picture on that first page that isn't a 10.

- FYI, Dusty Rychart is officially a facebook friend of DWG. Rickert has yet to respond.

- Just in case you weren't ready to kill yourself yet over the Twins, Jason Bartlett is hitting .346/.394/.526 with 18 doubles, 8 homers, and 20 steals.

For perspective, that's a better average than Albert Pujols, a better OBP than your boyfriend Derek Jeter, a better slugging pct. than Jason Bay, more doubles than Carl Crawford, more homers than Magglio Ordonez, and more steals than Willy Taveras. Kill me.

[EDIT: I'm going to add the video of Lebron getting dunked on here, just because I don't want to start another post for something that is so stupid. This is the dumbest thing ever. If he/Nike/Zeus/Jesus/Buddha whoever never grabs the tape in the first place, this is a non-story. Hell, this is still a non-story. It's like that time I told everyone I know that I humped Estella Warren, but I really just got some elbow-boob. [EDIT within an EDIT: I can't figure out how to embed this. Just click this link, jackass]]

Baseball Fun Facts

Even in the midst of this very exciting Gopher basketball season, and a fun college hoops season in general, the other day I found myself looking forward to opening day for YOUR Minnesota Twins (This is Twins Territory, after all). Perhaps influenced a bit by the Hall of Fame Inductions today, whereupon the inimitable Rickey Henderson and overrated Jim Rice got in, but our very own beloved birthday-lover and compulsive circler Bert Blyleven fell short again, I am very much in a baseball mood.

I don't really feel like breaking down the arguments for and against Blyleven (should be in), Black Jack Morris (out), Tim Raines (in), Tommy John (out), Mark McGwire (in), Andre Dawson (out), Lee Smith (out), Alan Trammell (in) and the rest. I also can't really break down any major Twins happenings, since that roster has seen less action than the Todd so far this winter. The only moves of even the slightest note were the Punto signing, which shouldn't have happened - not for that much money, and the R.A. Dickey signing which I already blogged about, less than enthusiastically. Although I could mention that the Egyptian was on the same plane as Punto last month, and unfortunately couldn't quite place who he was, at one point wondering if he was mildly retarded.

So what's a brother to do? I think I'll just play around with both baseball reference and Minor League Ball and see what happens. I should also note I'm having a drink right now (vodka & cranberry - with lime - naturally) but I don't plan to get drunk so this probably won't be all that funny.

- Speaking of funny, don't forget that we here at Down with Goldy are proud sponsors of the Scott Stahoviak page at baseball reference.

- Do you know who is the career leader in home runs amongst Hall of Fame eligible players other than Mark McGwire? It's Jose Canseco, with 462 steroid-free home runs. Ozzie Canseco hit zero; although he did hit 49 in his minor-league career. I read his book by the way, Jose's not Ozzie's, and it was ok. There's no review of it on this page because I finished it on February 13, 2007 but didn't start the blog until April of 2007. It was mostly Jose bitching about how the league didn't treat him fairly, very much like the Pete Rose book, actually. A lot of whining in both.

- If you're wondering how I know the exact date I finished the Canseco book, it's because I keep a very nerdy list in Excel detailing all the books I read. Yes, I'm fully aware how nerdy that is, but I don't care. For the record, it was 52 books in 2006, 62 in 2007, 43 in 2008 (stupid baby), and 1 so far this year (Zero: the biography of a dangerous idea by Charles Seife - if you like math I fully recommend it, if you're a typical mouth-breather who reads this crappy blog, stay far way and stick to your Maxim).

- The non-HOFer with the most career RBI is Harold Baines with 1,628 which surprises me a bit. He had more RBI in his career than George Brett, Mike Schmidt, Harmon Killebrew, Joe DiMaggio, Tris Speaker, Willie McCovey, Willie Stargell, and Jim Rice, among many others. That's impressive. More impressive if RBI was a stat that wasn't so largely dependent on good teammates and opportunity, but still.

- Corey Koskie had more RBI in his career than Mike Pagliarulo, although Pags kicks the Canadian's ass in non-sensical blog entries.

- How about batting average, since I know you people are so in love with it. Don't have to look far down the list, as Lefty O'Doul ranks fourth all-time with a career average of .349 and he is not a HOFer. Pretty good player, but was only around for like seven years or so, amassing just 1,140 career hits. He was basically Matt Holliday if Holliday's career ended right now, but with a higher average and slightly less power.

- By the way, I just want to let it be known that Luke Harangody cannot guard Samardo Samuels, and I mean at all.

- How about OPS+, that's a good one. You know who the top 5 guys in OPS+ all-time are? Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Barry Bonds, Lou Gehrig, and Rogers Hornsby. Yeah, it's a pretty good talent evaluator. Interestingly, Albert Pujols ranks tied for seventh on that list, I guess he's been pretty decent. The leader not in the hall of fame is Pete Browning, with an OPS+ of 162 which is tied with McGwire and better than Stan Musial, Willie Mays, and Hank Aaron. Of course, Browning's last game was played in 1894 so his numbers are a bit weird, although his 9 home runs in 1885 were third in the American Association.

- Here's something interesting I stumbled upon: Ned Williamson hit 27 home runs in a 112 game season in 1884 for the Chicago White Stockings, a record that stood for 35 years until some fat ass named Babe Ruth hit 29 in 1919. However, "Williamson benefited from a very short outfield fence in his home ballpark, Lakeshore Park. During the park's previous years, balls hit over the fence in that park were ground-rule doubles, but in 1884 (its final year) they were credited as home runs. Williamson led the pace, but several of his Chicago teammates also topped the 20 HR mark that season. Of Williamson's total, 25 were hit at home, and only 2 on the road." Interesting, looking a bit deeper, the previous year he had just 2 home runs, but 49 doubles. I'm guessing most of those were at home.

- I love how the parks were all quirky back in the day, which is why I loved the crazy hill in center field at Enron, but nothing could compare to the Baker Bowl. The home park of the Phillies until 1938, the Baker Bowl had a wall in right field that made the Green Monster look like a little girl. It was 60 feet high and was just 280 feet from home plate, compared to the Monster which is just 37 feet high and 310 feet away. So it was about 20 feet higher and 30 feet closer than the Green Monster. Crazy. And basically the reason Chuck Klein destroyed the league from 1929 - 1933.

- Ok, enough about with the history lesson. Let's take a page from Doc Brown's book and look to the future, but I warn you it's bleak.

- The Twins top 20 prospect list is out from John Sickels of Minor League Ball, and I warn you it ain't pretty. Look:

1) Ben Revere, OF, Grade B+: Picking between Revere and Hicks is tough, but I went with the guy with the bigger track record. Kenny Lofton possibilities here.
2) Aaron Hicks, OF, Grade B+. Could flip with Revere due to higher power ceiling.
3) Wilson Ramos, C, Grade B: Good glove, strong bat.
4) Shooter Hunt, RHP, Grade B: Some worries about his command.
5) Danny Valencia, 3B, Grade B-: Might have strike zone problems.
6) Jose Mijares, LHP, Grade B-: Terrific arm, erratic, has command and personality issues.
7) Kevin Mulvey, RHP, Grade B-: Exact opposite of Mijares, okay stuff but with strong command and makeup.
8) Carlos Gutierrez, RHP, Grade B-: Not going to bet against this guy after the Twins proved to be right about Revere.
9) Rob Delaney, RHP, Grade B-: Is this too high? Should he be a C+?
10) Chris Parmalee, OF, Grade C+: Got hurt, low batting average, but still young, lots of power and walks.
11) Angel Morales, OF, Grade C+: Great tools, power, but plate discipline a big problem.
12) David Bromberg, RHP, Grade C+: High ERA masks strong K/IP ratio, looks interesting to me.
13) Tyler Robertson, LHP, Grade C+: Would rank higher if not for arm problems.
14) Anthony Slama, RHP, Grade C+: Good solid relief arm.
15) Luke Hughes, 3B, Grade C+: Worried about the strike zone with this one.
16) Anthony Swarzak, RHP, Grade C+: Check out the component marks in Triple-A; they are more important than the pretty ERA.
17) Steven Tolleson, INF, Grade C+: Intriguing player, could rank higher depending on what you want to emphasize.
18) Jeff Manship, RHP, Grade C+: Could have been victim of bad luck in Double-A, as K/IP and K/BB remained steady.
19) Jason Pridie, OF, Grade C+: Interesting mix of strengths and weaknesses, still seem him as a fourth outfielder.
20) Charles Nolte, RHP, Grade C+: Favorite of ground ball fetishists.
21) Bobby Lanigan, RHP, Grade C+: Sleeper from the 2008 draft.

Before I talk about who is on this list, let's talk about who is NOT on this list: Deolis Guerra. Remember him? The second big prospect from the Santana trade (other than Carlos Gomez who Snacks says has the most talent of any Twin and that includes Mauer and Morneau) who was ranked the #2 prospect in the Mets system by Baseball Prospectus and instantly became the #1 Twins prospect? Uh, yeah, it's not good. A little deeper digging shows that Guerra had some serious problems this season, not just in his numbers - 5.47 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, disgusting 1-1 BB/K ratio - but also in his mechanics and ability. Apparently his fastball has fallen down to the 86-88 miles per hour range, and had several starts where he didn't touch 90 on the gun. What this means is the Twins pretty much traded Sandy Koufax for Vince Coleman, Les Straker, Brien Taylor (or Todd Van Poppel), and David West. THAT'S SO AWESOME.

- Should I live blog a movie again? I enjoy doing it, but is it entertaining to read?

- Back to that Santana trade, it looks like Mulvey still has a shot at least, coming in as the #7 prospect, but Humber is nowhere to be found. THAT IS ALSO SO AWESOME.

- #15 on the list, 3B-man Luke Hughes is intriguing, mostly because he was first pointed out to me by Dawger in this post. As Sickels mentions, Hughes strikes out a ton (once every 3.8 ABs last year in AA/AAA) but he still really made some leaps in hitting the baseball last year. With the black hole that seemingly will not be filled at third base, if he can duplicate his AA numbers from last year (.319/.385/.551 and 15 homers in 285 ABs) at AAA this year, we could see him with the big club. I guarantee he's better than Tony Batista.

- #11 on the list Angel Morales could be an absolute stud. He's just 18 years old, but led the Appalachian League in home runs last season with 15 in 183 at bats, racking up a line of .301/.413/.623. Seventy-two strikouts in 185 at bats is a bit troubling, but he can hit for average, takes walks, and hits for power and to the gaps. Keep your eye out for this dude.

- Lastly, you'll notice Jason Pridie at #19 despite sucking badly. Eduardo Morlan, who the Twins traded back to Tampa in that deal, checks in at #13 for the Rays and continues to put up excellent numbers as a reliever in the minors. That's depressing. Not as depressing as Matt Garza winning NLCS MVP, but still.

Some Other Prospects

There are a lot of Twins' prospects you hear about, and quite a few who you really don't. Since we pretty much know Carlos Gomez is a poor man's Vince Coleman, Delmon Young is really Jacque Jones, Boof Bonser's only chance is as an innings eater type, Kevin Slowey gives up too many homeruns, Scott Baker is boring, and Nick Blackburn is the new Jesus, I'm going to attempt to take a look at some guys who haven't hit the bigs yet.


1. P Deolis Guerra. You probably recognize Guerra's name, as he was the other key piece to the Santana deal. Guerra is currenly ranked the #1 prospect in the Twins system, and is putting up the numbers to back it up at Fort Myers. In 19 innings over 4 starts, Guerra has given up 14 hits and 9 walks for a WHIP of 1.21 and only three runs, leaving his ERA at 1.42. He's struck out 15 (good) and given up two homeruns (ok). He's also impressed scouts, despite a fastball that is currently hitting only about 88 on the gun. He has a plus curveball and a plus-plus changeup, which is already considered an average changeup for a big league pitcher. Considering Guerra is just 19 years old, if he picks up some speed on the fastball he could be a star. Even as is, he has the tools to be a big league pitcher, if just a 4/5 type - which the Twins are loaded with.

2. OF Ben Revere. The Twins' 2007 first round pick ran through the Gulf Coast League last year, to the tune of 21 steals in 30 tries in just fifty games. He was already known for his speed, but showed a excellent ability to drive the ball (.461 slugging including 10 triples in just 191 ABs), plate patience (13 BB/20 K, OBP of .388), and hit for average (.325). All these stats point to an excellent player, and hopefully in about 2-3 years he'll be playing CF and leading off for the Twins.

3. P Anthony Swarzak. With all the hype surrounding Garza, Baker, Slowey, and Bonser you never heard much about Swarzak, but he's turned into a top prospect while putting up excellent numbers each year. Swarzak followed up last year's 1.18 WHIP between A and AA with a hot start at AA New Britain, posting a WHIP of 1.00 and an ERA of 1.35 in four starts covering 20 innings. He doesn't give up many HRs (0 this year), he strikes out a good amount (24 in 20ip) and doesn't walk many guys (4 this year). Keep your eye on Swarzak, either this year or next he should be making his big debut.

4. P Tyler Robertson. A big (6-5) lefty down at Class A Fort Myers, Robertson is a guy jumped up Twins' prospect lists last season. After an uninspiring initial season in Rookie Ball, Robertson pitched very well at Class A Beloit last year. At just 19 years old, he pitched 102 innings, giving up just 87 hits, 3 homeruns, and 33 walks compared to 123 strikeouts on his way to a 1.17 WHIP and a 2.29 ERA. He's been a bit shakier so far this season at High A Fort Myers, posting a 1.60 WHIP through four starts and 19 innnings, but he still hasn't given up a homerun this year and posts an excellent K/9 of 9.94. Big lefties are always good to have around, so rest assured Robertson will get his chance.

5. SS Trevor Plouffe. Plouffe is a guy I'm very interested in, seeing as he's a shortstop and the position has pretty much been a black hole for the Twins for years and years, other than a handful of average seasons from Jason Bartlett, Greg Gagne, and Pat Meares and one hellaciously awesome season from Cristian Guzman. Of course, other than being a SS, Plouffe is fairl unremarkable. However he is an excellent fielder, with good range either way and a great arm. His hitting is suspect at best, as he's never hit better than .283 in a full minor league season, although he's up to .284 this season so far in AA. He shows decent plate patience and has fairly good speed. If he can develop a better bat, he could be a nice player. Ranked as the #11 prospect in the system, he has potential.

Other names you may not know: P Jeff Manship, P Jeff Duensing, OF Joe Benson

Oh, and if you're wondering about the other two 'tards from the Santana trade, they're both at AAA Rochester, where Kevin Mulvey has been lights out (1.16 ERA/1.16 WHIP) and Phil Humber has gotten absolutel lit up (5.09/1.70).

Beisbol

Three quick baseball notes:

1. There's some Twins chatter buried in the post below this one (the Williamson one) that I recommend taking a look at if you're a Twins fan.

2. I heard on the radio that Phil Humber gave up four runs to Concordia-St Paul today. I don't know how many innings he pitched, but it was a six inning scrimmage, so probably 1-2. ERA of between 18.00 - 36.00 against Concordia. TAKE THAT NEW YORK.

3. Baseball America released their list of the Top 100 Prospects. Of note: #35 Deolis Guerra and #52 Carlos Gomez. That's it for the whole Twins' system.

Santana vs. Bedard

Someone somewhere on this stupid blog asked about a breakdown of the Santana trade vs. the Bedard trade. Since I have nothing better to do this afternoon, and there isn't any basketball on until Duke/Wake at 6:30, I'll see what I can do.

SANTANA vs. BEDARD:

They are both 28, actually being born only 8 days apart, so age is no factor. Santana has been one of the best pitchers in the majors, if not the best, for the past five years. Bedard made a major leap into the upper tier of pitchers this season, after steadily improving for the past four seasons, lowering all his metrics year vs. year for that period, topping out with a 3.16 ERA (146 ERA+), .212 OAV, and 11 K's per nine. Compare that to Santana's 3.33 (130), .225 OAV and 10 Ks per. Add in Johan atrocious HR rate this season, and Bedard may have had a better year - although Santana pitched more innings, 219 vs. 182.

This was clearly Johan's worst season since becoming a full-time starter, and he still finished fifth in Cy Young voting, while it was Bedard's best season, and he tied Johan for fifth. Looking at the contracts they signed after the trades, where Bedard went for 1 year at $7 million and Johan went for 6 years, $137 million, Johan is prohibitively more expensive. Johan had a no trade clause, while Bedard did not. I didn't really get this at first, but after looking into it, it appears there are many reasons why Bedard would be more attractive to certain teams. Of course, if they aren't able to hammer out a long term deal with Bedard, it becomes a very costly trade on their end. Bedard should get somewhere in the $100 million range, so certainly not cheap, but not Johan money and he could end up being every bit as good for the rest of their careers. But I doubt it.

CENTERPIECES:

OF Carlos Gomez to the Twins vs. OF Adam Jones to the Orioles.

Gomez comes to the Twins and is instantly their number 1 prospect. The bad news is that he wasn't the top Mets prospect, but was #2. Adam Jones was not only the #1 prospect in the Mariners system, but was ranked the #44 prospect in the Major Leagues last season, and, if he hadn't played in the majors too much, would be in the top ten this year (Gomez is ranked 65 this season). Jones is known as a five-star, while Gomez is a four-star. Both have limited time in the majors, where Jones hit .246/.300/.400 in 65 at bats last season and Gomez hit .232/.288/.304 in 108 at bats. Similar, but in the minors Jones hit .314/.382/.586 while Gomez hit .281/.350/.423 in his last full minor league season. Hitting isn't everything, and Gomez is faster, steals more bases, and is generally known as a top flite fielder, but it's pretty clear any way you look at it that the best prospect traded in either deal was Jones.

EDIT TO ADD: I forgot to include this when I originally typed it up, but in case the previous paragraph hasn't depressed you enough, the Mariners were supposedly interested in Santana, but pulled out when the Twins asked for Jones. Great.

SECONDARY TALENT:

P Deolis Guerra to the Twins vs. P Chris Tillman.

Guerra immediately becomes the number 2 prospect in the Twins' system. Guerra dominated A ball two years ago, but had trouble adjusting to the jump up to high A. He has pitched in 23 games in high A (22 starts) lasting a total of only 97 total innings - yikes, that's awful - and last season in 21 games there had an ERA of 4.01 and a WHIP of 1.17. He's generally regarded as an excellent prospect, ranking #79 in the top 100 prospects list. He's only 18 years old, and could climb the list, or flame out.

Chris Tillman ranks #44 on the list, and is similar to Guerra since he also got a bit rocked in high A ball, though scouts love him, and is only 19. He's a step ahead of Guerra, however, because Guerra has a great changeup but needs to develop other pitches, while Tillman already has an excellent fastball and curveball. That, as well as ranking 35 spots higher on the top 100 list, give the edge here to the Mariners as well.

THROW-INS:

P Phil Humber and P Kevin Mulvey to the Twins vs. P Kevin Mickolio, P Tony Butler, and P George Sherrill.

Neither Humber nor Mulvey are anything to get hyper about. Both rank as three star prospects and project to back of the rotation types. They have each had some minor league success, and will start the season most likely in AAA. I expect both to get a shot with the big club at some point, but neither will become a star. Humber is the #5 in the Twins organization, Mulvey is #8.

Mickolio and Butler are a step below Humber/Mulvey, with Butler a two-star prospect ranking 8th in the Mariners system, with Mickolio not ranked in the top 11. Butler is a big lefty who can throw 94 mph, and could develop into a star level pitcher some day. Mickolio isn't expected to be much.

At this point, it looks like the Twins win this category, but the difference is in the third pitcher, reliever George Sherrill. Sherrill is thirty, has been in the majors for four years, and certainly isn't considered a prospect. What he is, is a shut down middle reliever who really came into his own last season. In 46 innings, he allowed 28 hits while striking out 56, with an ERA of 2.36 and a WHIP of 0.98. In 128 career innings pitched, Sherrill has allowed just 10 home runs. It may seem weird that a crappy team like the Orioles would want a middle reliever, but if they're smart, they'll turn around and deal Sherrill. If he can even come close to repeating his numbers from last season, he'll be a valuable commodity at the trade deadline and could net the O's yet another prospect.

So, in conclusion, this sucks.

Adios Johan + Site News

So it's official, Johan to the Mets, and the Twins didn't get back top prospect OF Fernando Martinez, or top young pitcher Mike Pelphrey. Superb. Not to mention no Wright and no Reyes, but I think we gave up on that bit a long time ago.

The guys they ended up getting are a solid package but not getting a marquee name like Martinez, Phil Hughes, Jon Lester, or Jacoby Ellsbury hurts.

OF Carlos Gomez has the best combination of potential and major league ready right now abilities. He was the Mets #3 prospect, and is a top flight center fielder and a very fast runner. His hitting isn't quite major league ready yet, but because of his other skills the Twins might very well try him this year. He never did hit for a very high average or take very many walks, even in the minors, but he can steal bases like a MoFo. Baseball Prospectus projects him as a .260-.280 hitter with 20-50 steals and a .700-.750 OPS each season. Sounds like the perfect throw-in to a big trade, not the freakin' center piece.

P Deolis Guerra was the Mets #2 prospect, and might be the most intriguing. He's only 18, and already has a major-league ready changeup. However his fastball is inconsistent, and he doesn't have a reliable curve as yet. He did post a 1.17 WHIP at the Mets high A league last season. He'll need to develop into something special to make this trade even close to worthwhile.

The other two pitchers, Kevin Mulvey and Philip Humber, were #4 and #7 in the Mets organization, but it's not clear how much upside they really have. Mulvey pitched well in the minors the past two seasons, posting a 1.07 WHIP between rookie and AA two years ago and 1.21 last season between AA and AAA. According to scouts, he has three good pitches, but no great pitch, which limits him to an upside of back of the rotation type. Hopefully, scouts are wrong. Humber used to be looked at as a #2 pitcher type, but after Tommy John surgery he's lost command of his curveball and looks to be a 4/5 type pitcher as well. Oh good. That's what we need. Two more back of the rotation guys.

I have no idea how real the Red Sox and Yankees' offers as reported by the media were. It is very possible that those were never on the table, and were just rumors. It is also very possible, that Billy Smith was trying to play them off each other, and get other teams involved, and he bluffed the wrong guys. Either Red Sox offer (Lester or Ellsbury plus others) or the Yankees offer (Hughes, Cabrera +, even without Kennedy) would have been preferable to this. The best pitcher in the game, and they get very little back. I know there were few teams willing to pony up the money, but it just seems wrong.

So here's the rotation now:
1. Francisco Liriano (IF he's back - key to the season)
2. Boof Bonser
3. Scott Baker
4. Kevin Slowey
5. Kevin Mulvey/Phil Humber

Ouch.


SITE NEWS: Starting next Wednesday, there will be a PGA post each week from our new PGA guy, looking at the weekend that was and previewing the upcoming tournament. Look for it next week.