Busy week, and that doesn't even count college basketball kicking off on Friday (yay!). Speaking of, I should do like, a mini preview here of UMKC, the Gophers' opponent for a game I cannot attend. And then Louisiana-Monroe since that game is Sunday (and I am going). Man I have a lot of work to do.
UMKC: The Kangaroos are kind of interesting and not just because they are called the Kangaroos. They finished second in the WAC last season and return the Conference Player of the Year in Martez Harrison. They lose most everyone else, but Harrison is apparently good enough that the Roos are projected to finish fourth this year. They started last season with a bang, knocking of Missouri, but then did nothing after. Hopefully they avoid a big win to start the season this time.
Looking at Harrison, it looks like he does it correctly. He gets his 17.5 points per game mainly at the rim, on 3 pointers, and at the line. Although the shooting percentage isn't great at just 39%, he's at least taking good shots - on paper. Should be a fun guy to watch. He scored 26 against Missouri and 21 against Kansas StatePlus they have a dude named Shayok Shayok, and that's always fun.
LOUISIANA-MONROE: ULM also has a fun name, the Warhawks. And, like the Kangaroos, the Warhawks should finish near the top of their conference, in this case the Sun Belt. The Warhawks were a pretty good defensive team last season and they have most of the squad back so they should be annoying again. They play slow and they play tough, and that will certainly be a worthwhile early season test for the crappy Gophers.
Where ULM sucks is shooting, and boy do they suck. They're the suckiest bunch of sucks who ever sucked. As a team last year they hit under 30% from 3 and 46% from 2. They were alright on free throws, but that didn't matter because they never got to the line - dead last in terms of FTs per FGA, to be specific. Four guys took over 100 3pointers last season and they shot 24%, 35%, 39%, and 28%. So yeah, they're terrible.
So these are two games the Gophers definitely need to win and should win, but both will present some challenges. Probably. I don't know. Who knows what we're getting from this team this year?
Next, the Twins were busy! First they submitted the winning bid of $12.85 for the exclusive negotiating writes with Byung Ho Park of the Korean League. He's 29, so you're gonna get what you're gonna get, but he hit 105 home runs over the past two seasons and sources say that's a lot of home runs. He hit .343 last season, has an OPS of .951 over his career, and averaged 85 walks over the past four seasons. I mean, dude can hit in the Korean League. How does that translate, is the question. If you're cringing a bit because you can't help but think back on Tsuyoshi Nishioka you're not the only one. He put up a .346/.423/.482 line in Japan in 2010, signed with the Twins, and proceed to hit .215/.267/.236 over two seasons so yeah, I'm a bit wary of dudes changing leagues.
One positive data point is Jung Ho Kang of the Pirates who was a teammate of Park's. Kang put up a .356/.459/.739 line in Korea, then came over and hit .287/.355/.461 which is very solid. His homers dipped from 40 in the KBL to 15 in MLB, which is something to keep in mind with Park as well, but Kang should finish 2nd or 3rd in NL Rookie of the Year (behind Kris Bryant) and if the Twins can get similar from Park that's a nice pick up.
Although Park's last season was his best, he's OPSed over 1.000 each of the last three and his career numbers (.281/.387/.564) are very good and he's pretty consistently showed power where's Kang's 40 homers kind of came out of nowhere. If I was in the projection business, I'd probably peg him somewhere around his career numbers with a slight dip in OBP and SLG (maybe .280/.340/.520) with somewhere around 25 homers. I will take that all day.
Then the Twins traded Chris Herrmann to the Diamondbacks for Daniel Palka. Herrmann was sort of terrible so trading him is fine. Palka lands on most D-Backs prospect lists somewhere around 30, so he's probably a good return for Herrmann. He hit .280/.352/.532 last season at high A ball, with 29 homers and 24 steals - good numbers. He's another 1B and OF type with contact issues that seem to litter the Twins minor leagues, but hey, eventually one of them will work out and all they gave up was Herrmann. Groovy.
Finally, the Twins made my brother very angry and traded Aaron Hicks to the Yankees for catcher John Ryan Murphy, a much bigger deal of a trade the first one. Hicks famously had two brutal seasons breaking into the bigs, but last year seemed to be figuring things out and was almost a league average hitter. Given his above average defense and speed, it's a calculated gamble getting rid of him now, however, and I realize how absurd this is even before I type it, the Twins have too many options in the OF so it makes sense to move someone now if he has even a little bit of value, especially if they don't think Hicks is going to live up to his potential. Hopefully we don't have a Carlos Gomez 2.0 situation on our hands here.
Murphy was ranked the Yankees #6 prospect prior to 2014, and hit .277/.327/.406 last year, good enough for an OPS of .734, which would have ranked him ninth among all catchers with at least 400 PAs last season, and well above the .610 Kurt Suzuki, excuse me All-Star Kurt Suzuki, flailed his way to last year. Those numbers are pretty well in line with his minor league career stats, and despite the lack of power (he'll hit about 5-10 homers in a full season) they're serviceable enough considering it sounds like Murphy is an above average defensive catcher, though not a star.
Overall I hate trading Hicks, but the move makes sense in a lot of ways, and that's not even getting into how much money they would end up throwing at either Matt Wieters or some terrible old player like A.J. Pierzynski (who I love) in order to get a decent starting catcher since Suzuki sucks now. Let's just hope Murphy is that decent starting catcher.
Showing posts with label Aaron Hicks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Aaron Hicks. Show all posts
Wednesday, November 11, 2015
Wednesday, August 20, 2014
Danny Santana - Future Center Fielder?
The people are clamoring for a Danny Santana related post, and when the people talk I usually get around to it sometimes maybe. So let's talk some CF/SS guy sometimes leadoff guy.
When Santana was first called up I put up a post looking into his background, and was strangely and uncharacteristically optimistic. I am happy to say that at this point he's justified the hype, hitting .313/.349/.463 while playing two of the most premium defensive positions in the game. If he had enough plate appearances to qualify, he'd be tied for sixth in the AL in batting average and would rank second among all major league shortstops (if he is a shortstop, which he is, except when he isn't) in OPS. He's not a crazy power hitter, but his ISO would rank 4th at his position in the league, and he's a good base runner with 12 steals against 3 caught, an acceptable success rate. All in all the Twins should be ecstatic with Santana, though we'll get into fielding later.
There is one caveat I have to point out with his hitting, and that's his crazy high .384 BABIP that would lead the entire major leagues and is simply unsustainable. Now, the good news is he's always had a high BABIP through the minors so it's not as hugely fluky as it would be if it was somebody without some past history of this type, but it's still not going to be able to continue. Mike Trout is a guy who has always blown buy BABIP league averages, but his career mark is just .361 and as much as I really like Santana, he's no Trout. Still that's not much of a concern. His walk rate is down just slightly from his minor league numbers, but his K rate is down as well while he's adding power - all fantastic signs. He's also putting up a line drive rate of 24.6%, a top 20 mark in the league and a driver of high BABIP (suggesting less luck). If he can cut down on infield pop-ups (12.3%, a bottom 30 mark) he could be even better. Really, this kid can hit.
The fact that he's doing this while learning a new position, a position he shouldn't have to learn on the fly, is all the more impressive. Thanks to the Twins' complete and total mismanagement of the Aaron Hicks situation and center field in general, somebody needed to suddenly become a CF, and the Twins chose Santana despite his grand total of 25 games played out there in his 4 minor league seasons, just 2 of which came after 2012. And, as you'd expect, he's been pretty brutal out there. According to UZR he ranks 29th out of 39 center fielders with at least 350 innings played there this year, although as a testament to how unreliable defensive metrics are some of the guys who rank as worse than him are Trout, Ben Revere, and Andrew McCutchen so take it for what it's worth. In any case, the eye test backs it up on Santana. His footwork and the routes he takes to balls are often terrible, and his arm is weak enough that runners have no issue taking extra bases whenever possible.
That's not to say he's doomed to be a below average outfielder. He has potential, namely speed which I'm sure is what the Twins saw, and he's not exactly a great shortstop so it's not like you're hurting yourself moving him off the infield. Even if Santana pans out and Byron Buxton lives up to expectations you're ok moving Santana to left (or back to short) since Buxton's supposed to be a good enough hitter to help offset some power deficiency from a corner OF spot. Which is all just a round about way of saying that with about a half season on the books, Danny Santana looks like a legit major league hitter. He just needs to find a position.
Is there any doubt the Twins screw this up?
When Santana was first called up I put up a post looking into his background, and was strangely and uncharacteristically optimistic. I am happy to say that at this point he's justified the hype, hitting .313/.349/.463 while playing two of the most premium defensive positions in the game. If he had enough plate appearances to qualify, he'd be tied for sixth in the AL in batting average and would rank second among all major league shortstops (if he is a shortstop, which he is, except when he isn't) in OPS. He's not a crazy power hitter, but his ISO would rank 4th at his position in the league, and he's a good base runner with 12 steals against 3 caught, an acceptable success rate. All in all the Twins should be ecstatic with Santana, though we'll get into fielding later.
There is one caveat I have to point out with his hitting, and that's his crazy high .384 BABIP that would lead the entire major leagues and is simply unsustainable. Now, the good news is he's always had a high BABIP through the minors so it's not as hugely fluky as it would be if it was somebody without some past history of this type, but it's still not going to be able to continue. Mike Trout is a guy who has always blown buy BABIP league averages, but his career mark is just .361 and as much as I really like Santana, he's no Trout. Still that's not much of a concern. His walk rate is down just slightly from his minor league numbers, but his K rate is down as well while he's adding power - all fantastic signs. He's also putting up a line drive rate of 24.6%, a top 20 mark in the league and a driver of high BABIP (suggesting less luck). If he can cut down on infield pop-ups (12.3%, a bottom 30 mark) he could be even better. Really, this kid can hit.
The fact that he's doing this while learning a new position, a position he shouldn't have to learn on the fly, is all the more impressive. Thanks to the Twins' complete and total mismanagement of the Aaron Hicks situation and center field in general, somebody needed to suddenly become a CF, and the Twins chose Santana despite his grand total of 25 games played out there in his 4 minor league seasons, just 2 of which came after 2012. And, as you'd expect, he's been pretty brutal out there. According to UZR he ranks 29th out of 39 center fielders with at least 350 innings played there this year, although as a testament to how unreliable defensive metrics are some of the guys who rank as worse than him are Trout, Ben Revere, and Andrew McCutchen so take it for what it's worth. In any case, the eye test backs it up on Santana. His footwork and the routes he takes to balls are often terrible, and his arm is weak enough that runners have no issue taking extra bases whenever possible.
That's not to say he's doomed to be a below average outfielder. He has potential, namely speed which I'm sure is what the Twins saw, and he's not exactly a great shortstop so it's not like you're hurting yourself moving him off the infield. Even if Santana pans out and Byron Buxton lives up to expectations you're ok moving Santana to left (or back to short) since Buxton's supposed to be a good enough hitter to help offset some power deficiency from a corner OF spot. Which is all just a round about way of saying that with about a half season on the books, Danny Santana looks like a legit major league hitter. He just needs to find a position.
Is there any doubt the Twins screw this up?
Thursday, July 31, 2014
Welcome Aboard, Tommy Milone!
You know what's awesome? Getting a serviceable, if back of the rotation, starting pitcher in exchange for a completely expendable outfielder you signed off waivers for nothing. In a complete coincidence to what I just posted, the Twins picked up Tommy Milone today in exchange for Sam Fuld in a trade with the A's, the team who waived Fuld earlier this year. But Oakland needed another outfielder after trading Yeonis Cespedes, and had more starters than one team needs after acquiring Jon Lester, Jeff Samardzjia, and Jason Hammel in trades, so off Milone went and the Twins were the lucky recipient.
Don't get me wrong, Milone is probably not going to win a Cy Young any time soon, but he's made 78 career starts, been in Oakland's rotation for the past 3 years, and has put up an ERA of 3.84, a WHIP of 1.26, and a FIP of 4.13 - solid #4 starter numbers on a contending team. The big knock on him is he doesn't throw very hard (average velocity 86.5mph on his fastball) and as a result doesn't strike anyone out (5.7 K/9 this season), and he's an extreme fly ball pitcher. Those K numbers, however, fit in right with the rest of the starters, and Phil Hughes is also an extreme fly ball pitcher and playing in a pitcher's park like Target Field has worked out for him for the most part. He's a solid pitcher, and he's under team control through 2017. Really, a quality acquisition by the Twins, especially since they had to give up just Fuld.
Not that Fuld is worthless - he's not or Billy Beane wouldn't want him - he's just not going to be a part of the Twins future as contenders, whenever that may be (hopefully 2016) and as such was expendable. He's a serviceable hitter with a keen batting eye who can run well and is an excellent fielder. He should serve the A's well as a fourth outfielder/pinch runner/defensive replacement type, but the Twins really had no need for him. Plus maybe this means Aaron Hicks gets another chance. You guys know he's going to be a superstar, right?
Don't get me wrong, Milone is probably not going to win a Cy Young any time soon, but he's made 78 career starts, been in Oakland's rotation for the past 3 years, and has put up an ERA of 3.84, a WHIP of 1.26, and a FIP of 4.13 - solid #4 starter numbers on a contending team. The big knock on him is he doesn't throw very hard (average velocity 86.5mph on his fastball) and as a result doesn't strike anyone out (5.7 K/9 this season), and he's an extreme fly ball pitcher. Those K numbers, however, fit in right with the rest of the starters, and Phil Hughes is also an extreme fly ball pitcher and playing in a pitcher's park like Target Field has worked out for him for the most part. He's a solid pitcher, and he's under team control through 2017. Really, a quality acquisition by the Twins, especially since they had to give up just Fuld.
Not that Fuld is worthless - he's not or Billy Beane wouldn't want him - he's just not going to be a part of the Twins future as contenders, whenever that may be (hopefully 2016) and as such was expendable. He's a serviceable hitter with a keen batting eye who can run well and is an excellent fielder. He should serve the A's well as a fourth outfielder/pinch runner/defensive replacement type, but the Twins really had no need for him. Plus maybe this means Aaron Hicks gets another chance. You guys know he's going to be a superstar, right?
Thursday, July 18, 2013
Fun With WAR: AL's Best Players by Position at the All-Star Break
Here's a look a the top players by position at the All-Star Break for the American League. I thought I'd do this mainly as an exercise to see how far off the Twins are at position from the best players. I'll look at WAR and try and include offensive and defensive tidbits. For these purposes I'll use Fangraphs.com's WAR calculation and ratings because they're much easier to pull into a report than B-R.
Catcher - Joe Mauer, Twins
The beauty of the catcher position is that there are only 7 that qualify with enough plate appearances for me to rank. Two of them are actually Twins thanks to Doumit's multi-positional weirdness. Mauer leads this group with a 3.9 WAR, with Houston's Jason Castro at #2 with a 2.3 WAR. Carlos Santana is 3rd (1.7 WAR). The best rated fielder is Matt Wieters with Mauer second. Wieters threw out 17 of 39 base stealer guys. Mauer's All-Star backup Salvador Perez had just a 1.4 WAR.
For numbers that people actually understand, Mauer led in hits (113), runs (50), AVG (320), OBP (402) and was .002 behind Castro in slugging at 473. Blue Jays' catcher JP Arencibia hit 16 homers and Wieters had 44 RBI to lead those categories. None of them stole more than a couple bases because they have knees like I do, only mine are from sitting on the couch.
First Base - Chris Davis, Orioles
This is a no brainer as Davis is right there with Cabrera for first half MVP. "Crush" (not sure where I stand on that nickname yet...the beverage is delicious though) produced a 5.1 WAR, giving him a healthy lead over Edwin Encarnacion at #2 (2.7). James Loney is a surprising #3 on the list with a 2.2 WAR. Prince Fielder was way down at #11 (0.8) because he gets dinged on his poor defense. Justin Morneau is #13 with a 0.6 WAR.
Davis led AL first basemen in hits (108), HR (37), R (70), RBI (93), AVG (315), OBP (392) and SLG (717). It was a clean sweep for him. Just sick. Loney tied him with the .315 average. Encarnacion (25), Dunn (24) and Mark Trumbo (21) also cleared the 20 homer mark. The best fielding rating belonged to Mike Napoli (6.2), which seems pretty weird. Trumbo (4.9), Hosmer (4.7) and Loney (4.0) are also among top defenders. The worst fielder was Mark Reynolds at (-7.8), with Fielder hot on his tail at -7.7.
Second Base - Robinson Cano, Yankees
Cano is having another great year and led AL second basemen with a 3.8 WAR. Dustin Pedroia and Jason Kipnis were right on his heels with 3.7 and 3.4, respectively. Brian Dozier is 7th (1.5) thanks to his very good defense and base running ratings. Oh, and just to give you an idea how well no-batting-gloves Matt Carpenter is playing for the Cardinals in the NL; he has a 4.3 WAR.
Cano leads in homers (21), RBI (65) and slugging (531). He's just average in fielding (0.4) and is actually a negative value in baserunning (-0.6). Pedroia leads in hits (119), average (316), OBP (396), runs (57) and is just behind Omar Infante (5.1) in fielding with 5.0. Kipnis leads in steals with 21, although somehow Zobrist gets the best base running rating with a 3.6. Apparently he has a great UBR, which has something to do with how many extra bases he takes.
Third Base - Miguel Cabrera, Tigers (duh)
It's no surprise that last year's Triple Crown winner is on the top of the heap here. What is amazing though is that he's nearing a second consecutive Triple Crown, which has never been done. Blockhead Chris Davis is tripping him up right now in the homers and Davis is also right behind Cabrera in RBI. There are some great AL third basemen this year with Cabrera (6.0 WAR), Evan Longoria (4.4), Josh Donaldson (4.3) and Manny Machado (4.2) at the top of the stack. Poor Adrian Beltre is 6th despite hitting 316/358/543 with 21 homers. Trevor Plouffe barely doesn't qualify, but if I lower the plate appearances standards a bit he clocks in at 8th with a 0.4 WAR.
As if you didn't know, Cabrera leads in everything with 365/458/674, 30 homers, 95 RBI and 73 runs. Only 11 players had at least 30 homers and 95 RBI in all of 2012. The best fielder is Manny Machado with a whopping +16 runs saved. Our guy Plouffe is at -6.7, but Cabrera is worst at -11.9. Miguel laughs at your defensive uber stats. The best base runner besides utility guy Jayson Nix (2.5) is Kyle Seager (0.9).
Shortstop -Derek Jeter Jhonny Peralta, Tigers
Jhonny freaking Peralta is the best we have to offer at shortstop in the AL. It's a motley crew where Mark Belanger would fit right in. Peralta is actually hitting really well and providing average defense. Funny that he's in better shape and playing so well in a contract year. Peralta has a 2.7 WAR, Yunel Escobar is 2nd with a 2.3, Jed Lowrie is 3rd with a 1.8 and Pedro Florimon is tied with Alexei Ramirez for 4th with a 1.7! JJ Hardy, who leads AL shortstops in homers (16) and RBI (52) is 6th with a 1.6 WAR because he doesn't walk and has a poor average.
Peralta leads shorstops in average (303) and slugging (447). He's second to Lowrie (364) in OBP with a 361 mark. Elvis Andrus leads in runs with 50 and is a +4.8 runs thanks to great base running. Otherwise, he sucks the big one (0.6 WAR). Nice signing, Texas. Nice fantasy trade, WWWWWWWW.
Florimon is the best fielder with a +9.0 runs; he's also a +2.8 base runner. The worst fielder is Jed Lowrie (-7.9) and the worst base runner is Asdrubal Cabrera (-2.4).
Left Field - Alex Gordon, Royals
Alex Gordon is second to Mike Trout actually; Gordon has a 2.2 WAR and Kelly Johnson is third with a 1.8. However, since 2/3 of Trout's games were in CF, we'll cover him there. There's a lot of sucky left fielders out there. .224 hitting Josh Willingham is 14th with a 0.4 WAR.
Raul Ibanez leads left fielders with 24 homers, 578 slugging and 56 RBI. Someone get some of that dude's pee ASAP. Alejandro De Aza has the runs with 54. Daniel Nava leads with a 288 average and a 374 OBP. Nate McLouth leads in steals with 24. The best fielding LF is Andy Dirks with a +10.6; the worst is Daniel Nava at -9.5 splitting time between left and right field. The best base runner is McLouth with a +3.6 runs; Melky Cabrera is the worst wtih a -3.3 tally. Funny how Melky's numbers have dropped back to where he was at in his Yankee days after getting suspended 50 games for roiding.
Center Field - Mike Trout, Angels
Trout is cranking out another pretty great year; in relative silence because the rest of the Angels have been pretty sucky and Cabrera and Davis have been putting up massive power numbers. His 5.7 WAR in the first half puts him on pace to exceed his MLB leading 10.0 WAR from last year. Colby Rasmus and Jacoby Ellsbury are tied for second at 3.5, Desmond Jennings and Brett Gardner are tied for fourth at 2.7 and Adam Jones is sixth with a 2.5 WAR. Aaron Hicks is dead last at 15th with a 0.0 WAR.
Trout leads in AVG (322), OBP (399) and SLG (565). Adam Jones leads in homers (19), runs (67) and RBI (67). Ellsbury leads in steals with 36 and also is tops with a base running with a +8.7 runs. The worst base runner in CF is Lorenzo Cain with a -0.5 runs. Cain however, is the top fielder with a +11.8; De Aza is last at -7.9.
Right Field - Jose Bautista, Bleu Jays
Joey Bats! His 3.0 WAR leads right fielders. Shane Victorino is second with a 2.4 WAR; Zobrist is third with 2.2. Torii Hunter leads in AVG (315) and OBP (352) unless we count Nava again. Chris Parmelee isn't last! He's second to last ahead of JD Martinez.
Nelson Cruz leads in homers (22), RBI (69) and SLG (517). The only stat Bautista actually leads in is runs (61), but he's close in a number of categories. The best fielder is Victorino, a converted center fielder, with +14.0; JD Martinez is worst with a -7.1 (again unless we count stone legs Nava). Drew Stubbs is the best base runner (4.0) and Boom Stick Cruz is last with a -2.6.
Final Tally for the Twins:
C: 1st
1B: 13th
2B: 7th
3B: 8th
SS: 4th
LF: 14th
CF: 15th
RF: 14th
Catcher - Joe Mauer, Twins
The beauty of the catcher position is that there are only 7 that qualify with enough plate appearances for me to rank. Two of them are actually Twins thanks to Doumit's multi-positional weirdness. Mauer leads this group with a 3.9 WAR, with Houston's Jason Castro at #2 with a 2.3 WAR. Carlos Santana is 3rd (1.7 WAR). The best rated fielder is Matt Wieters with Mauer second. Wieters threw out 17 of 39 base stealer guys. Mauer's All-Star backup Salvador Perez had just a 1.4 WAR.
For numbers that people actually understand, Mauer led in hits (113), runs (50), AVG (320), OBP (402) and was .002 behind Castro in slugging at 473. Blue Jays' catcher JP Arencibia hit 16 homers and Wieters had 44 RBI to lead those categories. None of them stole more than a couple bases because they have knees like I do, only mine are from sitting on the couch.
First Base - Chris Davis, Orioles
This is a no brainer as Davis is right there with Cabrera for first half MVP. "Crush" (not sure where I stand on that nickname yet...the beverage is delicious though) produced a 5.1 WAR, giving him a healthy lead over Edwin Encarnacion at #2 (2.7). James Loney is a surprising #3 on the list with a 2.2 WAR. Prince Fielder was way down at #11 (0.8) because he gets dinged on his poor defense. Justin Morneau is #13 with a 0.6 WAR.
Davis led AL first basemen in hits (108), HR (37), R (70), RBI (93), AVG (315), OBP (392) and SLG (717). It was a clean sweep for him. Just sick. Loney tied him with the .315 average. Encarnacion (25), Dunn (24) and Mark Trumbo (21) also cleared the 20 homer mark. The best fielding rating belonged to Mike Napoli (6.2), which seems pretty weird. Trumbo (4.9), Hosmer (4.7) and Loney (4.0) are also among top defenders. The worst fielder was Mark Reynolds at (-7.8), with Fielder hot on his tail at -7.7.
Second Base - Robinson Cano, Yankees
Cano is having another great year and led AL second basemen with a 3.8 WAR. Dustin Pedroia and Jason Kipnis were right on his heels with 3.7 and 3.4, respectively. Brian Dozier is 7th (1.5) thanks to his very good defense and base running ratings. Oh, and just to give you an idea how well no-batting-gloves Matt Carpenter is playing for the Cardinals in the NL; he has a 4.3 WAR.
Cano leads in homers (21), RBI (65) and slugging (531). He's just average in fielding (0.4) and is actually a negative value in baserunning (-0.6). Pedroia leads in hits (119), average (316), OBP (396), runs (57) and is just behind Omar Infante (5.1) in fielding with 5.0. Kipnis leads in steals with 21, although somehow Zobrist gets the best base running rating with a 3.6. Apparently he has a great UBR, which has something to do with how many extra bases he takes.
Third Base - Miguel Cabrera, Tigers (duh)
It's no surprise that last year's Triple Crown winner is on the top of the heap here. What is amazing though is that he's nearing a second consecutive Triple Crown, which has never been done. Blockhead Chris Davis is tripping him up right now in the homers and Davis is also right behind Cabrera in RBI. There are some great AL third basemen this year with Cabrera (6.0 WAR), Evan Longoria (4.4), Josh Donaldson (4.3) and Manny Machado (4.2) at the top of the stack. Poor Adrian Beltre is 6th despite hitting 316/358/543 with 21 homers. Trevor Plouffe barely doesn't qualify, but if I lower the plate appearances standards a bit he clocks in at 8th with a 0.4 WAR.
As if you didn't know, Cabrera leads in everything with 365/458/674, 30 homers, 95 RBI and 73 runs. Only 11 players had at least 30 homers and 95 RBI in all of 2012. The best fielder is Manny Machado with a whopping +16 runs saved. Our guy Plouffe is at -6.7, but Cabrera is worst at -11.9. Miguel laughs at your defensive uber stats. The best base runner besides utility guy Jayson Nix (2.5) is Kyle Seager (0.9).
Shortstop -
Jhonny freaking Peralta is the best we have to offer at shortstop in the AL. It's a motley crew where Mark Belanger would fit right in. Peralta is actually hitting really well and providing average defense. Funny that he's in better shape and playing so well in a contract year. Peralta has a 2.7 WAR, Yunel Escobar is 2nd with a 2.3, Jed Lowrie is 3rd with a 1.8 and Pedro Florimon is tied with Alexei Ramirez for 4th with a 1.7! JJ Hardy, who leads AL shortstops in homers (16) and RBI (52) is 6th with a 1.6 WAR because he doesn't walk and has a poor average.
Peralta leads shorstops in average (303) and slugging (447). He's second to Lowrie (364) in OBP with a 361 mark. Elvis Andrus leads in runs with 50 and is a +4.8 runs thanks to great base running. Otherwise, he sucks the big one (0.6 WAR). Nice signing, Texas. Nice fantasy trade, WWWWWWWW.
Florimon is the best fielder with a +9.0 runs; he's also a +2.8 base runner. The worst fielder is Jed Lowrie (-7.9) and the worst base runner is Asdrubal Cabrera (-2.4).
Left Field - Alex Gordon, Royals
Alex Gordon is second to Mike Trout actually; Gordon has a 2.2 WAR and Kelly Johnson is third with a 1.8. However, since 2/3 of Trout's games were in CF, we'll cover him there. There's a lot of sucky left fielders out there. .224 hitting Josh Willingham is 14th with a 0.4 WAR.
Raul Ibanez leads left fielders with 24 homers, 578 slugging and 56 RBI. Someone get some of that dude's pee ASAP. Alejandro De Aza has the runs with 54. Daniel Nava leads with a 288 average and a 374 OBP. Nate McLouth leads in steals with 24. The best fielding LF is Andy Dirks with a +10.6; the worst is Daniel Nava at -9.5 splitting time between left and right field. The best base runner is McLouth with a +3.6 runs; Melky Cabrera is the worst wtih a -3.3 tally. Funny how Melky's numbers have dropped back to where he was at in his Yankee days after getting suspended 50 games for roiding.
Center Field - Mike Trout, Angels
Trout is cranking out another pretty great year; in relative silence because the rest of the Angels have been pretty sucky and Cabrera and Davis have been putting up massive power numbers. His 5.7 WAR in the first half puts him on pace to exceed his MLB leading 10.0 WAR from last year. Colby Rasmus and Jacoby Ellsbury are tied for second at 3.5, Desmond Jennings and Brett Gardner are tied for fourth at 2.7 and Adam Jones is sixth with a 2.5 WAR. Aaron Hicks is dead last at 15th with a 0.0 WAR.
Trout leads in AVG (322), OBP (399) and SLG (565). Adam Jones leads in homers (19), runs (67) and RBI (67). Ellsbury leads in steals with 36 and also is tops with a base running with a +8.7 runs. The worst base runner in CF is Lorenzo Cain with a -0.5 runs. Cain however, is the top fielder with a +11.8; De Aza is last at -7.9.
Right Field - Jose Bautista, Bleu Jays
Joey Bats! His 3.0 WAR leads right fielders. Shane Victorino is second with a 2.4 WAR; Zobrist is third with 2.2. Torii Hunter leads in AVG (315) and OBP (352) unless we count Nava again. Chris Parmelee isn't last! He's second to last ahead of JD Martinez.
Nelson Cruz leads in homers (22), RBI (69) and SLG (517). The only stat Bautista actually leads in is runs (61), but he's close in a number of categories. The best fielder is Victorino, a converted center fielder, with +14.0; JD Martinez is worst with a -7.1 (again unless we count stone legs Nava). Drew Stubbs is the best base runner (4.0) and Boom Stick Cruz is last with a -2.6.
Final Tally for the Twins:
C: 1st
1B: 13th
2B: 7th
3B: 8th
SS: 4th
LF: 14th
CF: 15th
RF: 14th
Tuesday, July 9, 2013
Aaron Hicks Future Potential Stats Grid
I know that using batting average is not the best way to evaluate a player. I know it 100%. Yet I still care about batting average because I can't shake that part of old schoolness I apparently keep in my hip pocket. I try to beat it down with booze but like herpes I just can't get rid of it. Many others are in this same boat, and since Aaron Hicks just passed the .205 mark and he's either my favorite or second favorite current Twin (can't decide between him and Oswaldo Arcia yet) I find myself very interested in where he might be able to get that average to by the end of the year, because that's how many will evaluate him.
So assuming he gets the same number of At-Bats the rest of the way that he's already gotten this year (a pretty reasonable assumption), here is what he would need to hit the rest of the way to hit certain markers:
So there you go.
So assuming he gets the same number of At-Bats the rest of the way that he's already gotten this year (a pretty reasonable assumption), here is what he would need to hit the rest of the way to hit certain markers:
So there you go.
Tuesday, June 4, 2013
Fun with Nerd Stats
I was doing some work in Excel on my data and formulas for player props, and came across some interesting stats that I found interesting. So look:
- B.J. Upton is having an absolutely terrible year, and a big reason is pop-ups. Upton has a major league worst 30.2% in-field fly ball rate with 13 pop-ups in 192 plate appearances, a big reason why his BABIP is so low at just .208. Upton is also striking out 33.9% of the time, which means 64.1% of his plate appearances end with him having zero chance of getting on base. So if every Upton ground ball and fly ball managed to find a hole and he hit 1.000 on those, he'd still only be hitting .360. That's preposterous. Also from a Twins' perspective Josh Willingham's pop-up rate of 22.4% and K rate of 26.4% are a pretty bad combo too. He needs to get it together so they can trade him this summer for something halfway decent.
- There are 8 players who have yet to pop out this year, and they range from slap hitters (Ruben Tejada, Jose Altuve, Howie Kendrick), awesome hitters (Joey Votto, Mike Trout), really shocking guys who you'd think popped out every five minutes (Ryan Howard), guys I've never heard of (Jason Castro), and asians (Shin-Soo Choo).
- The following players have more walks than strikeouts so far this year: Dustin Pedroia, Coco Crisp, Marco Scutaro, and Norichika Aoki. That is an epically annoying group of players.
- Ervin Santana (13/13), Dan Haren (12/9), and Kevin Correia (13/12) are all contenders for the Bronson Arroyo Memorial Club of pitchers who give up more homers than walks in a season, but if anyone is a lock to join the group it's got to be Bartolo Colon with 7 homers and 4 walks allowed so far. It seems he's decided to absolutely not walk anybody this year, and if history holds and he makes around 30 starts he should give up around 20 homers. At his current walk rate he'll come in under that, but who knows if it will hold? He's never walked this few batters in his career, but it seems to be working for him so far (3.33 ERA, 3.34 FIP). Maybe even crazier? He's only had a single 3-0 count this entire season.
- Fastest average fastball velocity for any starter is Stephen Strasburg at 95.4 mph with the slowest 81.1 mph by R.A. Dicky (slowest non-gimmick pitcher FB is Barry Zito at 83.4). Fastest average fastball period goes to Detroit's Bruce Rondon at 99.3 mph (Aroldis Chapman is fourth at 97.1). Glen Perkins throws the fastest heater of any Twin at 94.5 mph, with the team's hardest throwing starter, Mike Pelfrey, averages 91.8 mph and every single thing I wrote in that last sentence is totally gross.
- More Twins stuff:
- Shin-Soo Choo completely crushes fastballs, Carlos Gomez (Snacks -> hi) kills the curve, while Chris Davis smokes sliders (Willingham is second here) and Evan Longoria owns the change-up (followed by Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki which is notable because all three are on $nake and I's fantasy team). On the flip side, fastballs confuse Ruben Tejada, John Buck is owned by the curve, Nelson Cruz can't hit a slider, and Matt Wieters is always fooled by a change.
- Lastly, the best heater in the bigs goes to Cliff Lee (Clayton Kershaw runner-up), best curve to Adam Wainwright (A.J. Burnett) - neither a big surprise, best slider belongs to Yu Darvish (Justin Masterson), best change to Marco Estrada (Cole Hamels), best cutter to Travis Wood (Clay Buchholz), and best splitter (people still throw this?) to Hisashi Iwakuma (Ryan Dempster) and no, not many people throw it.
- B.J. Upton is having an absolutely terrible year, and a big reason is pop-ups. Upton has a major league worst 30.2% in-field fly ball rate with 13 pop-ups in 192 plate appearances, a big reason why his BABIP is so low at just .208. Upton is also striking out 33.9% of the time, which means 64.1% of his plate appearances end with him having zero chance of getting on base. So if every Upton ground ball and fly ball managed to find a hole and he hit 1.000 on those, he'd still only be hitting .360. That's preposterous. Also from a Twins' perspective Josh Willingham's pop-up rate of 22.4% and K rate of 26.4% are a pretty bad combo too. He needs to get it together so they can trade him this summer for something halfway decent.
- There are 8 players who have yet to pop out this year, and they range from slap hitters (Ruben Tejada, Jose Altuve, Howie Kendrick), awesome hitters (Joey Votto, Mike Trout), really shocking guys who you'd think popped out every five minutes (Ryan Howard), guys I've never heard of (Jason Castro), and asians (Shin-Soo Choo).
- The following players have more walks than strikeouts so far this year: Dustin Pedroia, Coco Crisp, Marco Scutaro, and Norichika Aoki. That is an epically annoying group of players.
- Ervin Santana (13/13), Dan Haren (12/9), and Kevin Correia (13/12) are all contenders for the Bronson Arroyo Memorial Club of pitchers who give up more homers than walks in a season, but if anyone is a lock to join the group it's got to be Bartolo Colon with 7 homers and 4 walks allowed so far. It seems he's decided to absolutely not walk anybody this year, and if history holds and he makes around 30 starts he should give up around 20 homers. At his current walk rate he'll come in under that, but who knows if it will hold? He's never walked this few batters in his career, but it seems to be working for him so far (3.33 ERA, 3.34 FIP). Maybe even crazier? He's only had a single 3-0 count this entire season.
- Fastest average fastball velocity for any starter is Stephen Strasburg at 95.4 mph with the slowest 81.1 mph by R.A. Dicky (slowest non-gimmick pitcher FB is Barry Zito at 83.4). Fastest average fastball period goes to Detroit's Bruce Rondon at 99.3 mph (Aroldis Chapman is fourth at 97.1). Glen Perkins throws the fastest heater of any Twin at 94.5 mph, with the team's hardest throwing starter, Mike Pelfrey, averages 91.8 mph and every single thing I wrote in that last sentence is totally gross.
- More Twins stuff:
- Best Fastball (by results/value): Perkins
- Worst Fastball: Pelfrey
- Best Curve: Ryan Pressly
- Worst Curve: Scott Diamond
- Best Slider: Pressly
- Worst Slider: Perkins
- Best Change-Up: Jared Burton
- Worst Change: Pedro Hernandez
- Casey Fien and Josh Roenicke also have very good cutters, while Vance Worley has one that is completely god awful
- Best Fastball Hitter: Joe Mauer (and it's not even close - he crushes fastballs - runnerup: Eduardo Escobar)
- Best Curveball Hitter: Mauer (Trevor Plouffe)
- Best Slider Hitter: Josh Willingham (Plouffe)
- Best Change-Up Hitter: Mauer (Oswaldo Arcia)
- Most Aggressive Hitter: Wilkin Ramirez (runner up: Arcia)
- Best Eye: Brian Dozier (Jamey Carroll)
- Best Baserunner: Pedro Florimon (Aaron Hicks)
- Worst Baserunner: Plouffe (Chris Parmelee)
- Best Fielder: Justin Morneau (Florimon)
- Worst Fielder: Plouffe (Hicks - advanced stats have his range as terrible, advanced fielding stats still suck)
- Shin-Soo Choo completely crushes fastballs, Carlos Gomez (Snacks -> hi) kills the curve, while Chris Davis smokes sliders (Willingham is second here) and Evan Longoria owns the change-up (followed by Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki which is notable because all three are on $nake and I's fantasy team). On the flip side, fastballs confuse Ruben Tejada, John Buck is owned by the curve, Nelson Cruz can't hit a slider, and Matt Wieters is always fooled by a change.
- Lastly, the best heater in the bigs goes to Cliff Lee (Clayton Kershaw runner-up), best curve to Adam Wainwright (A.J. Burnett) - neither a big surprise, best slider belongs to Yu Darvish (Justin Masterson), best change to Marco Estrada (Cole Hamels), best cutter to Travis Wood (Clay Buchholz), and best splitter (people still throw this?) to Hisashi Iwakuma (Ryan Dempster) and no, not many people throw it.
Sunday, June 2, 2013
Canada was awesome, dude.
- The fishing trip was a rousing success. Tell me how this sounds to you: Five full days of fishing in 60 degree sunny weather catching walleye after walleye with an occasional Northern Jackfish thrown in. I ended up catching 235 Walleye and 50 Jacks, which is pretty incredible, and mostly with decent size. I topped out with a 35 inch Pike and 25 inch Walleye, while Bear won the week with a 30 inch Walleye and a 43 inch Jack and finished at the top of the weekly Yahtzee standings as well. I know Bogart grabbed a 26 Walleye (and won the end of the week Yahtzee tournament) and Dawger had a 37 Pike and was at the helm when I got my two biggest fish so it's not like anybody got shut out. Many beers were drank, much vodka was consumed, many fish were caught, one night was particularly hilarious, and overall it was just an outstanding trip. Basically the trip of a lifetime, and along with my trip to Italy with the wife and baseball trip out east with my dad and bro I've had 3 of them now. Pretty lucky dude.
Having been out of both internet and cell service areas for over a week, I've missed a lot. So I'll try to catch up.
- It appears the Twins have done well since I've been gone, winning six of their last seven, which is good. Even though Seattle is shitty and Milwaukee is even shittier it still means something that they're beating these shitty teams instead of losing like they were doing for a while. Instead of trying to go over these games, which would be impossible, I want to make two Twins' related points:
1. Aaron Hicks has hit .286 (8/28) in these seven games, and has now raised his season average all the way up to .173 (and yes, all the way is supposed to be sarcastic). His walks are way down compared to earlier in the season (to be fair, his strikeouts are too), but I would guess that's a result of pitchers forcing him to hit and refusing to walk him until he proves he can punish them if they groove it. His 3-4 day with 2 XBH today will certainly help. His season line now stands at .173/.246/.335, which is really pretty awful, but there are plenty of other underachievers, and veterans at that, who are putting up similar numbers at this early stage. B.J. Upton (.153/.236/.252), Jason Heyward (.142/.283/.236), Dustin Ackley (.205/.266/.250), Josh Reddick (.170/.280/.270), and Ben Revere (.251/.293/.287) are all notable names, for one reason or another, who are performing on a similar level. So what I'm saying is, if you've given up on Hicks already you're an idiot. And you probably are anyway and you probably like Big Bang Theory, Olive Garden, and Nickelback.
2. Glen Perkins is having a really good year out of the pen. His two blown saves were gross and he's had a couple poor outings in non-save situations, but overall an ERA of 3.05 (with a FIP of 2.31 which is really, really good) with 14+ Ks per nine and 5 Ks per walk is really, really effing good. I'm hopeful the Twins end up trading him for something good at the deadline because saves are overvalued like a mofo, but that's not what I found fascinating looking at stuff today. What's fascinating is the Perkins, in his 20 innings this year he has more Ks than Kevin Correia in his 70, Mike Pelfrey in 50, or Vance Worley in 48. Also Scott Diamond in his 50, and any other pitcher on the team. Yes, Glen Perkins leads the Twins in strikeouts. And you want to know who is third? Jared Burton. If it weren't so sad it would be hilarious. And sad.
- Man oh man I think the Royals might be cursed or haunted or something. Mike Moustakas was a top 10 prospect in all of baseball a couple of years ago, and this year his stats resemble Aaron Hicks but with no speed and less power coming from a more premium offensive position. Eric Hosmer was the #5 prospect at one point and he's hitting on a level equal to Eduardo Escobar, but with slightly less power which is awful enough but as a 1B it's just horrendous. And that's hardly the only issues they've had. Most of their top pitching prospects have either gotten hurt or flamed out, and the ones who have looked ok are either stuck in the bullpen or got traded (and don't forget, Luke Hochevar was the #1 overall pick in 2006 and after seven years is finally having his first decent year - but as a middle reliever). It's yet another example of "potential" not translating to actual performance, and maybe the most dramatic one outside of this year's Lakers.
- Last year I said that shutting down Stephen Strasburg after 159 innings in a season when you have legitimate World Series hopes was a stupid, stupid move. Throwing away a tangible benefit (having one of the best pitchers in baseball on your side in the playoffs) for some unprovable, perhaps even hypothetical future benefit (Strasburg's future health) rarely works out, and now he ended up leaving his start last Friday after just two innings with an oblique strain. I'm not sure how bad that actually is or if he'll miss any games, but it should help serve as a warning to other teams in similar situations in the future. Play your best when that window is open, because nobody knows how quickly it could shut - just ask the OKC Thunder.
- This was pretty neat:
- After being a pretty big backer of the Pitino hire and the system he's going to be bringing to the Gophers, as time has passed and I've been looking at things more rationally I'm getting more nervous that next year may be a disaster. Let's assume for a minute that Pitino is able to force other teams into a more up-and-down type game than is generally played in the Big 10 (a pretty big assumption, granted, that may actually be the key next year anyway). A more uptempo game results in more possessions, and traditionally the more possessions in a game the more likely the more talented team will in - is that really the position the Gophers want to put themselves in next year? With that mish-mash of a front court? Pitino's goal is something that has rarely been done successfully in the Big 10 with only Ohio State in 2011 finishing above .500 in conference with one of the fastest paced teams (top 100) in the country going back to 2005. That team had elite talent, this Minnesota team doesn't and really has only two players you could call above average. My confidence is wavering, and wavering significantly. I'm now terrified for next year.
And speaking of that mish mash of a front court, the Gophers signed on Drake transfer Joey King, formerly of East View, giving them a Minnesota presence and another bigger body if he gets the waiver he's looking for to make him eligible next year (the ole "move home because of a family situation" waiver). There are a lot of conflicting opinions on King. On the one hand, he was on the MVC All-Freshman team last year after averaging 7 pts and 3 rebs per game, which is decent for freshman and the MVC was a quality league last year (and he played some of his best ball against the best - 17 vs. Creighton, 15 vs. Wichita, and 21 vs. Xavier). The bad news is despite being 6-9 he was just a slightly better rebounder than Joe Coleman (RIP) last season, shot more twos than threes, and only took 20% of his shots at the rim last year which was less than Julian Welch last year.
Basically King is, potentially, a good stretch 4 which is what Pitino is looking for. However, along with Osenieks and Buggs that gives them three of those with only one true post player, meaning that Mo Walker may very well end up being the key to the season. Read that again. Think about it. Digest it for a minute. How does that feel? I feel yucky.
- Oh yeah, Epic was a pretty sweet kids movie. You should go see it and stuff.
Having been out of both internet and cell service areas for over a week, I've missed a lot. So I'll try to catch up.
- It appears the Twins have done well since I've been gone, winning six of their last seven, which is good. Even though Seattle is shitty and Milwaukee is even shittier it still means something that they're beating these shitty teams instead of losing like they were doing for a while. Instead of trying to go over these games, which would be impossible, I want to make two Twins' related points:
1. Aaron Hicks has hit .286 (8/28) in these seven games, and has now raised his season average all the way up to .173 (and yes, all the way is supposed to be sarcastic). His walks are way down compared to earlier in the season (to be fair, his strikeouts are too), but I would guess that's a result of pitchers forcing him to hit and refusing to walk him until he proves he can punish them if they groove it. His 3-4 day with 2 XBH today will certainly help. His season line now stands at .173/.246/.335, which is really pretty awful, but there are plenty of other underachievers, and veterans at that, who are putting up similar numbers at this early stage. B.J. Upton (.153/.236/.252), Jason Heyward (.142/.283/.236), Dustin Ackley (.205/.266/.250), Josh Reddick (.170/.280/.270), and Ben Revere (.251/.293/.287) are all notable names, for one reason or another, who are performing on a similar level. So what I'm saying is, if you've given up on Hicks already you're an idiot. And you probably are anyway and you probably like Big Bang Theory, Olive Garden, and Nickelback.
2. Glen Perkins is having a really good year out of the pen. His two blown saves were gross and he's had a couple poor outings in non-save situations, but overall an ERA of 3.05 (with a FIP of 2.31 which is really, really good) with 14+ Ks per nine and 5 Ks per walk is really, really effing good. I'm hopeful the Twins end up trading him for something good at the deadline because saves are overvalued like a mofo, but that's not what I found fascinating looking at stuff today. What's fascinating is the Perkins, in his 20 innings this year he has more Ks than Kevin Correia in his 70, Mike Pelfrey in 50, or Vance Worley in 48. Also Scott Diamond in his 50, and any other pitcher on the team. Yes, Glen Perkins leads the Twins in strikeouts. And you want to know who is third? Jared Burton. If it weren't so sad it would be hilarious. And sad.
- Man oh man I think the Royals might be cursed or haunted or something. Mike Moustakas was a top 10 prospect in all of baseball a couple of years ago, and this year his stats resemble Aaron Hicks but with no speed and less power coming from a more premium offensive position. Eric Hosmer was the #5 prospect at one point and he's hitting on a level equal to Eduardo Escobar, but with slightly less power which is awful enough but as a 1B it's just horrendous. And that's hardly the only issues they've had. Most of their top pitching prospects have either gotten hurt or flamed out, and the ones who have looked ok are either stuck in the bullpen or got traded (and don't forget, Luke Hochevar was the #1 overall pick in 2006 and after seven years is finally having his first decent year - but as a middle reliever). It's yet another example of "potential" not translating to actual performance, and maybe the most dramatic one outside of this year's Lakers.
- Last year I said that shutting down Stephen Strasburg after 159 innings in a season when you have legitimate World Series hopes was a stupid, stupid move. Throwing away a tangible benefit (having one of the best pitchers in baseball on your side in the playoffs) for some unprovable, perhaps even hypothetical future benefit (Strasburg's future health) rarely works out, and now he ended up leaving his start last Friday after just two innings with an oblique strain. I'm not sure how bad that actually is or if he'll miss any games, but it should help serve as a warning to other teams in similar situations in the future. Play your best when that window is open, because nobody knows how quickly it could shut - just ask the OKC Thunder.
- This was pretty neat:
- After being a pretty big backer of the Pitino hire and the system he's going to be bringing to the Gophers, as time has passed and I've been looking at things more rationally I'm getting more nervous that next year may be a disaster. Let's assume for a minute that Pitino is able to force other teams into a more up-and-down type game than is generally played in the Big 10 (a pretty big assumption, granted, that may actually be the key next year anyway). A more uptempo game results in more possessions, and traditionally the more possessions in a game the more likely the more talented team will in - is that really the position the Gophers want to put themselves in next year? With that mish-mash of a front court? Pitino's goal is something that has rarely been done successfully in the Big 10 with only Ohio State in 2011 finishing above .500 in conference with one of the fastest paced teams (top 100) in the country going back to 2005. That team had elite talent, this Minnesota team doesn't and really has only two players you could call above average. My confidence is wavering, and wavering significantly. I'm now terrified for next year.
And speaking of that mish mash of a front court, the Gophers signed on Drake transfer Joey King, formerly of East View, giving them a Minnesota presence and another bigger body if he gets the waiver he's looking for to make him eligible next year (the ole "move home because of a family situation" waiver). There are a lot of conflicting opinions on King. On the one hand, he was on the MVC All-Freshman team last year after averaging 7 pts and 3 rebs per game, which is decent for freshman and the MVC was a quality league last year (and he played some of his best ball against the best - 17 vs. Creighton, 15 vs. Wichita, and 21 vs. Xavier). The bad news is despite being 6-9 he was just a slightly better rebounder than Joe Coleman (RIP) last season, shot more twos than threes, and only took 20% of his shots at the rim last year which was less than Julian Welch last year.
Basically King is, potentially, a good stretch 4 which is what Pitino is looking for. However, along with Osenieks and Buggs that gives them three of those with only one true post player, meaning that Mo Walker may very well end up being the key to the season. Read that again. Think about it. Digest it for a minute. How does that feel? I feel yucky.
- Oh yeah, Epic was a pretty sweet kids movie. You should go see it and stuff.
Tuesday, May 14, 2013
Joe Coleman to Transfer? (and some other stuff)
- The big news tonight is that Joe Coleman is considering transferring from the Gopher hoops squad with a meeting planned with Coach Pitino Wednesday to discuss his future, a meeting I'd wager was initiated by Coleman after seeing this giant influx of perimeter players. This, in my not remotely humble opinion, would be a mistake by both parties.
Although Coleman may have a rough outside shot and is the worst defender on the team (particularly off the ball) and has the game of a 4 in the body of a 2, he's still a valuable player and should fit in with Pitino's system quite well. Coleman seems to excel when he can get out and run and use his almost unreal ability to score in the paint for a little guy. In the half court his weaknesses (and we might as well throw sub-par ball handling and decision making in there as well) are magnified, but in a more free flowing game he can excel with his athleticism, which allows him to gamble on defense for steals (which he could do more easily with Pitino than Tubby). It would be hard for Coleman to find a better system for his skill set, and it would be hard for the Gophers to replace his production for next year at this late date so it really doesn't make any sense for him to leave. Though if he does it makes a lot more sense to go after Malik Smith (referenced below in a bullet point I wrote before all this Coleman shit broke out)
And now that I glance at Twitter in order to make a comment about Harrison Barnes looking good I see everyone is now suddenly reporting that Coleman has asked for his release. Unless Pitino was like "Hey Joe why don't you go" with the intention of bringing Smith in this is just a baffling decision by Coleman. And, frankly, it sucks. No matter what you think about Coleman (and he clearly had his faults) I really think he would have thrived under Pitino. I guess we'll see by tomorrow what's true and what isn't. All of this is a little bit baffling. I think pretty much every transfer during the Tubby era made some sense (maybe with the exception of Iverson) but this one has me confused. I'll be interested to see what leaks in the next few days (if it turns out to be true).
- With Wednesday being the last day to sign recruits for the 2013-2014 season and nobody on the Gophers radar it appears the Gophers will be looking at snagging a transfer in order to fill out the roster. Right now Malik Smith, formerly of FIU, Tarik Black, formerly of Memphis, Rakeem Buckles, formerly of Louisville, and Joey King, formerly of Drake, look to be the candidates. Black is the definite prize of the group, but he's being chased by teams like Duke and Kansas which makes him a pretty big longshot. Smith averaged 14 points per game last season at FIU as a junior, but he's yet another guard and after signing Daquean McNeil and Dre Mathieu a big man would seem to be a better option which is why, among other reasons, the most likely new Gopher will be either Buckles, King, or both.
Buckles, who was with Pitino at Louisville before following him to FIU, is looking to transfer from FIU and Minnesota makes the most sense. He's a power forward who has been injury prone but talented and he's a senior which means he'd not only (most likely) be eligible right way but also would only take up a scholarship for one season, both of which are attractive to a new coach trying to build a program using his players. King, a 6-9 PF with a nice outside shot, is from Eagan and is looking to transfer closer to home due to some personal issues of some sort, meaning he'd likely get a waiver and be eligible this year just like Buckles, but he still has three years of playing eligibility. It sounds like his game would fit what Pitino wants, it's just a matter of if he's good enough (7pts & 3rebs in 19 minutes per game for Drake last year with outbursts of 21 pts twice including vs. Xavier). There are conflicting reports on whether or not he's been contacted by the Gophers or contacted the Gophers with some reports he's been asked to come in as a walk-on. So who knows, but the team probably needs at least one of those two for next season seeing as a front court of Eliason, Walker, Oto, and Buggsy is what some might call really pretty bad.
- I'm sure most people who would be interested have already checked out this Hicks catch, but here it is again.
I don't think it beats Revere's from last season, but that's a pretty damn good play.
- Also, Glen Perkins really likes nerd stats.
- Congrats to stryker, who wins a DVD/Blu-ray copy of the Sandlot by being chosen at random from those who left a comment below the post about The Sandlot. Just think, it could have been you if you weren't so damn lazy.
- I think, seeing as how we're a cynical and sarcastic society and bloggers seem to lead the league in both, that I'm supposed to hate the new Vikings Stadium but I actually like it. Retractable roof wasn't feasible due to budget and keeping in mind they had a limited space to build and couldn't turn it into a giant corporate like campus area, I think the design looks pretty good. I understand how somebody could hate it with all the glass and what not, but I dig the look.
- Andrew Wiggins, the #1 prospect for the 2013 college basketball season, is taking his talents to Kansas for next year, ending speculation that he was heading for Florida State (both his parents were athletes at FSU) and pretty much guaranteeing that the Florida State/Gopher game at the barn is going to be so boring I'm going to want to die. Remember when Georgia Tech came here when they had Bosh? The Jackets sucked, the Gophers sucked, but it didn't matter because Bosh was fun to watch. And Wiggins is supposed to be way, way better than Bosh ever was in college.
- One of the things I said would be good about this Twins' season is that they'd be in a full rebuilding period which would mean we'd get extended looks at some guys and be able to get a handle on who has a future with the team and who doesn't. Although the jury is still out on pretty much all the young players I've made my decision on one of them: Chris Parmelee is freaking terrible. After this year he'll probably spend a year or two bouncing between the bigs and AAA and eventually be waived and end up doing the same thing for another team. In reality a pretty nice living that I would kill for, but it's over as far as him being the future of anything -other than like, really good softball player.
- Lastly, I got my Ontario Fishing License today. I don't think I've mentioned this before, but a week from Thursday I'd heading off to Canada for a week long fishing trip to Lac Seul which is a 9 hour drive and 3 hour boat ride away with Dawger, Bear, Bogart, Bogart's dad, and a bunch of old people. We will have no internet access and very little cell service which frankly sounds kind of awesome so you'll have to be in TRE's capable hands for a week so hopefully he can post some stuff that doesn't suck. Why would you drive that far just to fish, you may ask if you're some kind of gay. This is why:
Although Coleman may have a rough outside shot and is the worst defender on the team (particularly off the ball) and has the game of a 4 in the body of a 2, he's still a valuable player and should fit in with Pitino's system quite well. Coleman seems to excel when he can get out and run and use his almost unreal ability to score in the paint for a little guy. In the half court his weaknesses (and we might as well throw sub-par ball handling and decision making in there as well) are magnified, but in a more free flowing game he can excel with his athleticism, which allows him to gamble on defense for steals (which he could do more easily with Pitino than Tubby). It would be hard for Coleman to find a better system for his skill set, and it would be hard for the Gophers to replace his production for next year at this late date so it really doesn't make any sense for him to leave. Though if he does it makes a lot more sense to go after Malik Smith (referenced below in a bullet point I wrote before all this Coleman shit broke out)
And now that I glance at Twitter in order to make a comment about Harrison Barnes looking good I see everyone is now suddenly reporting that Coleman has asked for his release. Unless Pitino was like "Hey Joe why don't you go" with the intention of bringing Smith in this is just a baffling decision by Coleman. And, frankly, it sucks. No matter what you think about Coleman (and he clearly had his faults) I really think he would have thrived under Pitino. I guess we'll see by tomorrow what's true and what isn't. All of this is a little bit baffling. I think pretty much every transfer during the Tubby era made some sense (maybe with the exception of Iverson) but this one has me confused. I'll be interested to see what leaks in the next few days (if it turns out to be true).
- With Wednesday being the last day to sign recruits for the 2013-2014 season and nobody on the Gophers radar it appears the Gophers will be looking at snagging a transfer in order to fill out the roster. Right now Malik Smith, formerly of FIU, Tarik Black, formerly of Memphis, Rakeem Buckles, formerly of Louisville, and Joey King, formerly of Drake, look to be the candidates. Black is the definite prize of the group, but he's being chased by teams like Duke and Kansas which makes him a pretty big longshot. Smith averaged 14 points per game last season at FIU as a junior, but he's yet another guard and after signing Daquean McNeil and Dre Mathieu a big man would seem to be a better option which is why, among other reasons, the most likely new Gopher will be either Buckles, King, or both.
Buckles, who was with Pitino at Louisville before following him to FIU, is looking to transfer from FIU and Minnesota makes the most sense. He's a power forward who has been injury prone but talented and he's a senior which means he'd not only (most likely) be eligible right way but also would only take up a scholarship for one season, both of which are attractive to a new coach trying to build a program using his players. King, a 6-9 PF with a nice outside shot, is from Eagan and is looking to transfer closer to home due to some personal issues of some sort, meaning he'd likely get a waiver and be eligible this year just like Buckles, but he still has three years of playing eligibility. It sounds like his game would fit what Pitino wants, it's just a matter of if he's good enough (7pts & 3rebs in 19 minutes per game for Drake last year with outbursts of 21 pts twice including vs. Xavier). There are conflicting reports on whether or not he's been contacted by the Gophers or contacted the Gophers with some reports he's been asked to come in as a walk-on. So who knows, but the team probably needs at least one of those two for next season seeing as a front court of Eliason, Walker, Oto, and Buggsy is what some might call really pretty bad.
- I'm sure most people who would be interested have already checked out this Hicks catch, but here it is again.
I don't think it beats Revere's from last season, but that's a pretty damn good play.
- Also, Glen Perkins really likes nerd stats.
- Congrats to stryker, who wins a DVD/Blu-ray copy of the Sandlot by being chosen at random from those who left a comment below the post about The Sandlot. Just think, it could have been you if you weren't so damn lazy.
- I think, seeing as how we're a cynical and sarcastic society and bloggers seem to lead the league in both, that I'm supposed to hate the new Vikings Stadium but I actually like it. Retractable roof wasn't feasible due to budget and keeping in mind they had a limited space to build and couldn't turn it into a giant corporate like campus area, I think the design looks pretty good. I understand how somebody could hate it with all the glass and what not, but I dig the look.
- Andrew Wiggins, the #1 prospect for the 2013 college basketball season, is taking his talents to Kansas for next year, ending speculation that he was heading for Florida State (both his parents were athletes at FSU) and pretty much guaranteeing that the Florida State/Gopher game at the barn is going to be so boring I'm going to want to die. Remember when Georgia Tech came here when they had Bosh? The Jackets sucked, the Gophers sucked, but it didn't matter because Bosh was fun to watch. And Wiggins is supposed to be way, way better than Bosh ever was in college.
- One of the things I said would be good about this Twins' season is that they'd be in a full rebuilding period which would mean we'd get extended looks at some guys and be able to get a handle on who has a future with the team and who doesn't. Although the jury is still out on pretty much all the young players I've made my decision on one of them: Chris Parmelee is freaking terrible. After this year he'll probably spend a year or two bouncing between the bigs and AAA and eventually be waived and end up doing the same thing for another team. In reality a pretty nice living that I would kill for, but it's over as far as him being the future of anything -other than like, really good softball player.
- Lastly, I got my Ontario Fishing License today. I don't think I've mentioned this before, but a week from Thursday I'd heading off to Canada for a week long fishing trip to Lac Seul which is a 9 hour drive and 3 hour boat ride away with Dawger, Bear, Bogart, Bogart's dad, and a bunch of old people. We will have no internet access and very little cell service which frankly sounds kind of awesome so you'll have to be in TRE's capable hands for a week so hopefully he can post some stuff that doesn't suck. Why would you drive that far just to fish, you may ask if you're some kind of gay. This is why:
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| This is Bogart from a prior trip, by the way. Yes, I know it's hard to believe he's a super rich and powerful attorney. |
Sunday, April 28, 2013
Let's Talk About Hicks, Man
The most exciting thing about sports is potential. Actually, the most exciting part is having the chance to see what that potential escape the realm of the imaginary and turn into something real - whether good or bad. There's a reason people are generally excited about a new Star Wars Trilogy and it's the same concept. The interest in getting in early on something that has the potential to be great sucks people in whether despite being burned countless times before (think Phantom Menace, Rico Tucker, or Francisco Liriano). This, of course, brings us to Aaron Hicks. There's little more exciting than the team's most MLB ready top prospect tearing shit up in Spring and getting the nod to jump from AA ball right to the bigs and bat leadoff. All that, of course, is why his debut has been mostly a bummer, bro.
Things have been looking brighter lately with Hicks in the midst of a 5-game hit streak, but that still raises his batting average to just .118, which ranks dead last among those with enough PAs to qualify for the batting title. This obviously is less than ideal. There are lots of people who seem quite riled up by Hicks' slow start, including one guy I talked to at a bachelor party (for Grand Slam, for those of you who follow along with the cast of characters in my life) who couldn't have spent more time telling me how Hicks sucked and should be sent to AAA to get his swing straightened out. To this I say, "dude shut up."
First of all, his BABIP is .167, well below league average and far below where he's been at every minor league stop (usually a decent amount north of .300) and is fourth worst in the majors. Granted he hasn't hit a ton of line drives (only 3 so far this year in 44 balls put in play) but it would essentially be impossible to play an entire season with a BABIP below .200 (worst in the majors last year was Justin Smoak at .242). That alone basically guarantees his average will get up to a minimum of .200 or so, and I'd be stunned if it ended up anywhere near that low.
Additionally, and perhaps most importantly, Hicks hasn't changed his approach from his minor league days, despite the rough start. He was billed as a patient hitter and that hasn't changed and that's why he's on pace for 85-100 walks despite barely hitting .100. His walk rate of 14.3% is actually fantastic, and ranks 15th in the majors, better than guys like Albert Pujols and your precious Joe Mauer. On the flip side yes he's struck out a ton (29.9%, 17th in the majors) but he's only whiffed four times in the last 10 games after racking up 20 in the previous 10 so I'd say that, along with the big five game winning streak, tell me he's figuring this thing out. It's worth noting that Hicks current .238 OBP is nearly as good as Ben Revere who is at .242 despite Revere's average (.207) being nearly 100 points higher. Actually that's something worth looking at further, so I will.
Hicks' OBP is .238 and his average is .118 - a difference of .120. That is a substantial difference so I investigated further. That ties him with Giancarlo Stanton and A.J. Ellis for the 11th biggest difference in the league, with such stars as Joey Votto, Billy Butler, David Wright, and Ryan Braun in his neighborhood. What does that mean? It means the guy knows how to hit, and a combination of bad luck and his own slump have combined to make the numbers look like he can't. Watching the guy and diving deeper into the numbers tell me the guy is still going to be a stud.
Not to mention he's a dynamic player who makes things happen. Despite just 8 hits he has seven RBI and has scored 10 runs. He and Colorado's Josh Rutledge are the only players to have more runs scored than hits this year, and only five players have more RBI per hit than Hicks does. He makes things happen. Add in his excellent defense and great base running and you still have a future star on your hands here, despite the slow start and weird Kevin Smith looking guys at bachelor parties opinions.
You hear me? I will say again:
AARON HICKS IS STILL GOING TO BE A SUPER STAR!
And you can take that to the bank.
Things have been looking brighter lately with Hicks in the midst of a 5-game hit streak, but that still raises his batting average to just .118, which ranks dead last among those with enough PAs to qualify for the batting title. This obviously is less than ideal. There are lots of people who seem quite riled up by Hicks' slow start, including one guy I talked to at a bachelor party (for Grand Slam, for those of you who follow along with the cast of characters in my life) who couldn't have spent more time telling me how Hicks sucked and should be sent to AAA to get his swing straightened out. To this I say, "dude shut up."
First of all, his BABIP is .167, well below league average and far below where he's been at every minor league stop (usually a decent amount north of .300) and is fourth worst in the majors. Granted he hasn't hit a ton of line drives (only 3 so far this year in 44 balls put in play) but it would essentially be impossible to play an entire season with a BABIP below .200 (worst in the majors last year was Justin Smoak at .242). That alone basically guarantees his average will get up to a minimum of .200 or so, and I'd be stunned if it ended up anywhere near that low.
Additionally, and perhaps most importantly, Hicks hasn't changed his approach from his minor league days, despite the rough start. He was billed as a patient hitter and that hasn't changed and that's why he's on pace for 85-100 walks despite barely hitting .100. His walk rate of 14.3% is actually fantastic, and ranks 15th in the majors, better than guys like Albert Pujols and your precious Joe Mauer. On the flip side yes he's struck out a ton (29.9%, 17th in the majors) but he's only whiffed four times in the last 10 games after racking up 20 in the previous 10 so I'd say that, along with the big five game winning streak, tell me he's figuring this thing out. It's worth noting that Hicks current .238 OBP is nearly as good as Ben Revere who is at .242 despite Revere's average (.207) being nearly 100 points higher. Actually that's something worth looking at further, so I will.
Hicks' OBP is .238 and his average is .118 - a difference of .120. That is a substantial difference so I investigated further. That ties him with Giancarlo Stanton and A.J. Ellis for the 11th biggest difference in the league, with such stars as Joey Votto, Billy Butler, David Wright, and Ryan Braun in his neighborhood. What does that mean? It means the guy knows how to hit, and a combination of bad luck and his own slump have combined to make the numbers look like he can't. Watching the guy and diving deeper into the numbers tell me the guy is still going to be a stud.
Not to mention he's a dynamic player who makes things happen. Despite just 8 hits he has seven RBI and has scored 10 runs. He and Colorado's Josh Rutledge are the only players to have more runs scored than hits this year, and only five players have more RBI per hit than Hicks does. He makes things happen. Add in his excellent defense and great base running and you still have a future star on your hands here, despite the slow start and weird Kevin Smith looking guys at bachelor parties opinions.
You hear me? I will say again:
AARON HICKS IS STILL GOING TO BE A SUPER STAR!
And you can take that to the bank.
Monday, April 15, 2013
Monday Musings
- Even though the Twins are terrible this year this still could end up being a pretty fun season. If nothing else, they're at least finally agreeing with everyone else and realizing they're terrible so they're going to see what they have for the future. So we're going to get full seasons of Chris Parmelee and Brian Dozier to see what they can offer in the future. We're going to see extended tryouts for Aaron Hicks and Oswaldo Arcia (who got his first career hit tonight in his first career at-bat which is probably like, the first time that's ever happened in MLB history) and get a chance to find out if Darin Mastroianni or Joe Benson can be a fourth outfielder someday.
It sucks that the pitching rotation is basically made up of crappy guys who are crappy, but you're going to watch 30 starts out of Vance Worley and Scott Diamond so we can see where they could slot in the future rotation. Liam Hendriks and Cole Devries should get 20+ starts each so we can figure out if they have a future. Sam Deduno should get a decent shot to see if he can carry over any of his WBC success. Kyle Gibson should hit the bigs at some point this year, and with a little luck maybe we'll see at least one of Alex Meyer and Trevor May as well.
Yes they'll be terrible, but at least they'll be terrible with young guys who are fun. Even Pedro Florimon is a little bit fun, what with all the bunting for hits.
- That Masters was pretty effing awesome, no? I won't rehash everything since you've either watched it, read about it, or don't care but I love it when somebody like Adam Scott, who is dealing with that "great player who hasn't won a major" pressure wins one, especially Augusta, because their reactions are like watching the One Shining Moment of golf. I have no problem with Tiger, I don't hate him or anything but I don't really want to make love to him either, but watching him win is fun too because of the "greatest of all-time" thing, but I'd much rather somebody like Scott win.
That majors pressure just fascinates me with how it affects everyone a little differently. It was really weighing down on Phil but he managed to get passed it, but Sergio Garcia has let it beat him so far down he's reached the point where he says himself that he doesn't think he's good enough to win a major, while despite 10 career top 10s in majors Steve Stricker doesn't seem to be bothered at all. Similarly, the two younger guys you heard this about - Luke Donald and Adam Scott - seemed to be on opposite ends of the spectrum as well with Donald seeming to be more relaxed about it and Scott feeling some pressure, and if you want to throw Ian Poulter in that mix I can almost feel the steam coming off of him when it comes to majors. For some reason I dig Poulter so I hope he's next, but Lee Westwood better hurry up to before his window closes. Actually I'm calling my shot right now - it's between Westwood and Poulter for the British Open. Book it.
- Have you seen what's going down with Purdue's hoops team right now? Guard Anthony Johnson announced he's transferring, making the third player (Sandi Marcius and Jacob Lawson were the other two) who has bounced from the Boilers this offseason. Losing these three isn't a killer or anything as all averaged less than 20 minutes and 5 points per game and Purdue has three Rivals Top 150 guys coming in next season, but losing three of your rotation guys is still a bit alarming. Also keep in mind that Johnson already redshirted, which means that if he transfers to a D-I school he loses an entire year of eligibility when he sits out so you know he really, really wanted out.
I'm sure Painter has everything under control (like I mentioned, great class coming in) it's just odd to see this kind of mass exodus when a coach is already entrenched for eight years and when added to the Kelsey Barlow thing last year it kind of makes you scratch your head. It's probably nothing, but if it's something, remember how smart I am. Otherwise forget it.
- The Seahawks signed Antoine Winfield? Sweet jesus do they just follow the Vikings around waiting to see what they've dropped? In the last three years 46% of Viking players they got rid off ended up on Seattle according to these numbers I just made up. How's Sidney Rice, who I believe is behind Doug Baldwin on the depth chart these days, working out? Maybe the Vikings can use this infatuation to their advantage. You know, they could be all like, "Hey, if Russell Wilson gets hurt you guys really need somebody with a similar skill set. How about Joe Webb" and then they'd trade a 5th round pick for him. I'm a genius.
- Lastly, Ramon Ortiz is back in the majors. Yes, that one. This disturbs me greatly. Although I did learn his middle name is Diogenes, which I kind of like, so I guess I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.
Monday, April 8, 2013
Some Monday Things
Just some things while I watch the National Championship game, in which I have a 14-to-1 betting slip on Louisville to win the title I bought back in December when I became convinced the Cardinals were the team to beat. It is the largest futures bet I have ever made, and that is by quite a lot. Needless to say, I'm a pretty big Louisville fan tonight . That being said, I also have some on Michigan +4 because that's what I actually think will happen, so let's hope for a Louisville win by 1-3 points please thank you drive through.
- First off, this Aaron Hicks thing is really a bummer so far. I know it's not like his career is over or anything and technically he's off to a better start than Willie Mays and everything, but I was hoping this whole Hicksy thing would be exciting and sexy, not stressful and a little bit depressing. The good news is that he doesn't seem like it's bothering him as much as it's bothering me. He's still got his little bit of swagger out in center and his approach at the plate hasn't changed so it doesn't seem like he's pressing or anything. Today actually was the first time he's looked frustrated at all after his strikeout in the 8th. No doubt the numbers are ugly, particularly the strikeout numbers, but lots of crazy things happen with small sample sizes early in the season - you only have to look at the Twins' pitching thus far to see that.
By the way, I'm pretty sure Vance Worley is horrendous, we already know Kevin Correia is horrendous, and Liam Hendriks aspires to be horrendous. That means the only starters in the rotation right now who might not be horrendous are Mike Pelfrey (who is probably horrendous) and Pedro Hernandez (I'm not even sure who this is). Yet they're 6th in the American League in ERA. Man that regression to the mean is going to be swift and painiful.
- This Spike Albrecht shit is crazy.
- As far as Gopher hoops recruiting goes there are two interesting names to pay attention to - Alvin Ellis and Shavar Newkirk.
Ellis is the dude who had already committed to the Gophers but asked for, and was granted, his release from his Letter of Intent after Tubby was fired and apparently nobody in the athletic department got around to even making a phone call (according to some reports). I definitely think the Gophers are better off with Ellis than without, but it's not like losing a Royce White type of loss at all. Ellis will probably end up being a pretty quality four-year player but he's not a program changer, and although his game sounds like it fits what Pitino wants to do if he bails and it just gives Pitino another scholarship to get one of his own guys well, we might as well let the kid do his thing.
Newkirk is a guy I'm really excited about, simply because he's a NYC point guard and I've always loved NYC point guards (I miss you Eric Harris!). He's a 2014 recruit (obviously I'd rather have Tyus but Newkirk is a solid fall back) who ranks at #125 on the Rivals Top 150, and the reason he's popped up as a possible future Gopher is that our new coach already offered him a scholarship to FIU. He also carries offers from Iona, Hofstra, Manhattan, Seton Hall, UMass, Providence, and Iowa State. Really the only competition prestige-wise here is the Cyclones, and the Gophers should have an inside edge since Kimani Young is now on board Pitino's staff and he has deep roots into NYC and is a big reason FIU was on Newkirk in the first place. As with many NYC point guards he's a great ball-handler and exceptional passer with a terrible jump shot, but I will gladly sacrifice that for a true distributor type and hope he can learn to shoot with time - it worked for Harris. Let's do this.
- I watched Weird Science today, and I think it's the first time I've watched the entire thing from start to finish since like, the 90s and you know what? That is one weird as hell movie. I'm not even sure if I think it was good or bad. Somehow I think I blocked out the weird futuristic biker gang scene from my memory. And all the magic and stuff at the end. So bizarre. I'd rather watch License to Drive. That movie rocked your face off.
- Half-time and after a huge comeback by Luke Hancock the Spike Albrechts lead 38-37. Great game. Especially if you have the Over 138.
- I haven't really given much thought to the Masters yet (I should probably get Grand Slam in here to write up a Masters preview) but rest assured I'll have a little coin on a couple of players. Just glancing at the list and without doing any research some of the guys who look interesting are Poulter at 50/1, Mahan at 50/1, Stricker at 66/1, and Immelman 500/1 (those odds are crazy). Snedeker at 44/1 is another one I need to look at, along with Keegan Bradley (23/1) and Kuchar (40/1). I don't really like any of the big favorites just because their odds suck. Tiger is 4/1, Rory is 8/1, Phil is 11/1 and Justin Rose is 17/1. I don't know. I'll be back to let you know because I know you want to know.
- I really expected to write more but this game is way too entertaining. Bye.
- First off, this Aaron Hicks thing is really a bummer so far. I know it's not like his career is over or anything and technically he's off to a better start than Willie Mays and everything, but I was hoping this whole Hicksy thing would be exciting and sexy, not stressful and a little bit depressing. The good news is that he doesn't seem like it's bothering him as much as it's bothering me. He's still got his little bit of swagger out in center and his approach at the plate hasn't changed so it doesn't seem like he's pressing or anything. Today actually was the first time he's looked frustrated at all after his strikeout in the 8th. No doubt the numbers are ugly, particularly the strikeout numbers, but lots of crazy things happen with small sample sizes early in the season - you only have to look at the Twins' pitching thus far to see that.
By the way, I'm pretty sure Vance Worley is horrendous, we already know Kevin Correia is horrendous, and Liam Hendriks aspires to be horrendous. That means the only starters in the rotation right now who might not be horrendous are Mike Pelfrey (who is probably horrendous) and Pedro Hernandez (I'm not even sure who this is). Yet they're 6th in the American League in ERA. Man that regression to the mean is going to be swift and painiful.
- This Spike Albrecht shit is crazy.
- As far as Gopher hoops recruiting goes there are two interesting names to pay attention to - Alvin Ellis and Shavar Newkirk.
Ellis is the dude who had already committed to the Gophers but asked for, and was granted, his release from his Letter of Intent after Tubby was fired and apparently nobody in the athletic department got around to even making a phone call (according to some reports). I definitely think the Gophers are better off with Ellis than without, but it's not like losing a Royce White type of loss at all. Ellis will probably end up being a pretty quality four-year player but he's not a program changer, and although his game sounds like it fits what Pitino wants to do if he bails and it just gives Pitino another scholarship to get one of his own guys well, we might as well let the kid do his thing.
Newkirk is a guy I'm really excited about, simply because he's a NYC point guard and I've always loved NYC point guards (I miss you Eric Harris!). He's a 2014 recruit (obviously I'd rather have Tyus but Newkirk is a solid fall back) who ranks at #125 on the Rivals Top 150, and the reason he's popped up as a possible future Gopher is that our new coach already offered him a scholarship to FIU. He also carries offers from Iona, Hofstra, Manhattan, Seton Hall, UMass, Providence, and Iowa State. Really the only competition prestige-wise here is the Cyclones, and the Gophers should have an inside edge since Kimani Young is now on board Pitino's staff and he has deep roots into NYC and is a big reason FIU was on Newkirk in the first place. As with many NYC point guards he's a great ball-handler and exceptional passer with a terrible jump shot, but I will gladly sacrifice that for a true distributor type and hope he can learn to shoot with time - it worked for Harris. Let's do this.
- I watched Weird Science today, and I think it's the first time I've watched the entire thing from start to finish since like, the 90s and you know what? That is one weird as hell movie. I'm not even sure if I think it was good or bad. Somehow I think I blocked out the weird futuristic biker gang scene from my memory. And all the magic and stuff at the end. So bizarre. I'd rather watch License to Drive. That movie rocked your face off.
- Half-time and after a huge comeback by Luke Hancock the Spike Albrechts lead 38-37. Great game. Especially if you have the Over 138.
- I haven't really given much thought to the Masters yet (I should probably get Grand Slam in here to write up a Masters preview) but rest assured I'll have a little coin on a couple of players. Just glancing at the list and without doing any research some of the guys who look interesting are Poulter at 50/1, Mahan at 50/1, Stricker at 66/1, and Immelman 500/1 (those odds are crazy). Snedeker at 44/1 is another one I need to look at, along with Keegan Bradley (23/1) and Kuchar (40/1). I don't really like any of the big favorites just because their odds suck. Tiger is 4/1, Rory is 8/1, Phil is 11/1 and Justin Rose is 17/1. I don't know. I'll be back to let you know because I know you want to know.
- I really expected to write more but this game is way too entertaining. Bye.
Wednesday, December 12, 2012
North Correia: A Free Agency Story
The MLB Winter Meetings have ended. There were a lot of moves made and our Twins were in thick of it by making trades and offers to free agent pitchers for them to turn down. Then, the totally thinkable happened: an average to below average starting pitcher that literally never misses bats (well, 5.7% of the time he does) signed a two year deal. Welcome to the North, Correia!
DWG already covered Corriea briefly in his live blog of last night's Gophers/Bison tilt, but it probably should be mentioned again that this wasn't what we were looking for as a first splash in free agency. Jon Marthaler of Twinkietown is apoplectic about the signing and rightfully so. The worst part about this is that it's $5MM per year that can't be given to someone else. As the Twins repeat their mantra of being small budget and having limited money to spend over and over, you'd think they'd be a little more wise and a lot more patient with it. If someone scoops you at this point in the off-season on Correia, you wish the poor bastards luck and trot out Sammy Deduno instead. Another thing about Correia is he's not exactly some big-time workhorse. He's never logged 200 innings, coming closest in 2009 at 198. He's averaged 157 innings pitched over the past 3 seasons. Correia throws a 4-seamer 25% of the time at 90 mph, a 2 seamer 21% at 90.6 mph, a slider 24% at 87 mph, a curve 12% at 77 mph and a change 13% at 86mph. You can see that his mix doesn't vary speeds much, so he has to rely on location and movement to be effective. According to Fangraphs.com his only pitch that was plus from an average runs allowed perspective was the changeup.
The best part about watching the winter meetings is watching the interviews. Seeing Charlie Manuel in a suit trying to act like a regular human that doesn't wear leggings and a windbreaker to work was great. The interview I saw was a day or two before the Revere trade and you could tell he knew it was happening. They asked him about their hole in center field and he said they were focusing on getting a defensive presence out there. Manuel was curmudgeonly and loveable. You know he threw some Red Man in after the interview to take the edge off.
The Terry Ryan interview on MLB network that occurred just after the two trades was also great. Terry Ryan looks like a turtle. An angry, angry turtle. I should have recorded it because I can't find it online. Essentially, he said what we've all been thinking and saying for the last year or two. The Twins have some depth in the outfield and are sorely in need of pitching. He went on to mention that they've had a number of offers out to pitchers but they couldn't give away the money. Sadly, now we know he did give some cash away to Correia. After seeing this interview it makes me lean even more towards thinking this was a panic move.
Also of note was that he listed Hicks, Benson and Mastroianni in that order when asked how they'll fill centerfield. Spring training will be interesting from this standpoint as a stand out performance could land any of the three the job. I suspect we'll see Mastroianni there to start and as DWG pointed out, he was at least somewhat useful in under 200 ABs last season. Hicks, 23, had a lot of success last season in AA. He's a good defender in centerfield with a big arm. He has power and speed on the basepaths. His strikeouts are a tad high, but he also walks at a good rate, so he projects to a top of the order type. Benson was injured much of last year with the dreaded hamate bone injury (that's the tiny bone at the base of the ring finger in the palm of your hand where hitters often hold the knob of the bat). He also had a knee cleanup in August. He hit like crap, but I'm willing to give him a pass due to injury issues. He's 25 in March, so it's possible he makes the team as a reserve outfielder with Mastroianni starting and Hicks in AAA at the beginning at least. Then when they suck and Hicks is tearing up AAA, they can make a move.
Ryan also indicated that they are probably done subtracting for the time being and would prefer to add via free agency rather than trade. He indicated that he thought the team could compete as-is and when asked about starting pitching he mentioned Worley, Diamond and Liam Hendriks. He also said they have guys like Nick Blackburn and Brian Duensing as depth. At which point I yelled "Oh, come on!" at the tv. This was of course before we got the Correian Barbeque. Your Twins rotation right now looks something like this:
#4a Scott Diamond
#4b Vance Worley
#5a Liam Hendriks
#5b Kevin Correia
And then the clusterflap for the last spot: Kyle Gibson, Cole DeVries, Nick freaking Blackburn and Sammy Deduno.
If Gibson starts in AAA there's a legit chance that with Gibson, Meyer and May the Rochester Redwings will have a better staff than the Twins. The hope is of course that there's one more signing coming in for the Twins. They still have some money under their self-imposed cap, so they just need to get some sucker to agree to sign on the dotted line.
Starters that are still out there:
Shaun Marcum is still kicking around. He doesn't throw hard and is kind of old (31 in two days), so maybe the Twins have interest. He's a better pitcher than Correia, but that likely means he'd cost more too. He's the chick at the bar that used to be pretty hot, and is probably still worth a roll.
Ryan Dempster is also out there and rumors indicate the Twins made an offer. He's already declined a two year/$25 million offer from the Red Sox because his old ass wants a three year deal. He's 36 in March and definitely on the decline, so if he's asking that much it's a definite no-go. Similar to Marcum, he's an older chick at the dive bar that really isn't all that hot but has big boobs at least.
Edwin Jackson is still out there! He still wants a multi-year deal and I'd still give it to him. (just like last year) He had probably his best year yet last season for the Nats when they gave him a one year, $12MM deal. He is reported to want a 4 or 5 year deal, probably in the 50-60MM range. Big bucks and we hate that. The dream scenario here is that Edwin hangs around until the zero hour and is forced to make bad decisions like he's at the bar until close and all of the cool franchises have already left with their pitchers and the Twins have been bellied up to the bar all night making kissy faces at him and he just goes for it.
Jair Jurrjens is available and has a fun name. The Twins reportedly are after him as well. He's just 26, but is coming off a brutal, Blackburnesque season. He is a former all-star though and could be a cheap, short term signing. He's the newly single chick at the bar that kind of let herself go because she was depressed and stuff, but now she's got a gym member ship and stuff and who knows what could happen?
Brett Myers is crazy and seems to just be drawing interest from the Orioles and Twins for the most part. He's the crazy chick that bites and scratches but mostly in a fun way.
Joe Saunders...made an offer already, meh. Lefty and still better than Corriea. He's the chick with the lazy eye.
Frankie Liriano also already offered. WTF? I think any other team in the league would be a better fit. I mean, how many chances does he need to prove he can't turn it aroun in Minnesota? He's the on again, off again girlfriend that cheats on you all of the time.
DWG already covered Corriea briefly in his live blog of last night's Gophers/Bison tilt, but it probably should be mentioned again that this wasn't what we were looking for as a first splash in free agency. Jon Marthaler of Twinkietown is apoplectic about the signing and rightfully so. The worst part about this is that it's $5MM per year that can't be given to someone else. As the Twins repeat their mantra of being small budget and having limited money to spend over and over, you'd think they'd be a little more wise and a lot more patient with it. If someone scoops you at this point in the off-season on Correia, you wish the poor bastards luck and trot out Sammy Deduno instead. Another thing about Correia is he's not exactly some big-time workhorse. He's never logged 200 innings, coming closest in 2009 at 198. He's averaged 157 innings pitched over the past 3 seasons. Correia throws a 4-seamer 25% of the time at 90 mph, a 2 seamer 21% at 90.6 mph, a slider 24% at 87 mph, a curve 12% at 77 mph and a change 13% at 86mph. You can see that his mix doesn't vary speeds much, so he has to rely on location and movement to be effective. According to Fangraphs.com his only pitch that was plus from an average runs allowed perspective was the changeup.
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| Pass the tobacky. |
The best part about watching the winter meetings is watching the interviews. Seeing Charlie Manuel in a suit trying to act like a regular human that doesn't wear leggings and a windbreaker to work was great. The interview I saw was a day or two before the Revere trade and you could tell he knew it was happening. They asked him about their hole in center field and he said they were focusing on getting a defensive presence out there. Manuel was curmudgeonly and loveable. You know he threw some Red Man in after the interview to take the edge off.
The Terry Ryan interview on MLB network that occurred just after the two trades was also great. Terry Ryan looks like a turtle. An angry, angry turtle. I should have recorded it because I can't find it online. Essentially, he said what we've all been thinking and saying for the last year or two. The Twins have some depth in the outfield and are sorely in need of pitching. He went on to mention that they've had a number of offers out to pitchers but they couldn't give away the money. Sadly, now we know he did give some cash away to Correia. After seeing this interview it makes me lean even more towards thinking this was a panic move.
Also of note was that he listed Hicks, Benson and Mastroianni in that order when asked how they'll fill centerfield. Spring training will be interesting from this standpoint as a stand out performance could land any of the three the job. I suspect we'll see Mastroianni there to start and as DWG pointed out, he was at least somewhat useful in under 200 ABs last season. Hicks, 23, had a lot of success last season in AA. He's a good defender in centerfield with a big arm. He has power and speed on the basepaths. His strikeouts are a tad high, but he also walks at a good rate, so he projects to a top of the order type. Benson was injured much of last year with the dreaded hamate bone injury (that's the tiny bone at the base of the ring finger in the palm of your hand where hitters often hold the knob of the bat). He also had a knee cleanup in August. He hit like crap, but I'm willing to give him a pass due to injury issues. He's 25 in March, so it's possible he makes the team as a reserve outfielder with Mastroianni starting and Hicks in AAA at the beginning at least. Then when they suck and Hicks is tearing up AAA, they can make a move.
 |
| Hamate |
Ryan also indicated that they are probably done subtracting for the time being and would prefer to add via free agency rather than trade. He indicated that he thought the team could compete as-is and when asked about starting pitching he mentioned Worley, Diamond and Liam Hendriks. He also said they have guys like Nick Blackburn and Brian Duensing as depth. At which point I yelled "Oh, come on!" at the tv. This was of course before we got the Correian Barbeque. Your Twins rotation right now looks something like this:
 |
| THE PAIN |
#4a Scott Diamond
#4b Vance Worley
#5a Liam Hendriks
#5b Kevin Correia
And then the clusterflap for the last spot: Kyle Gibson, Cole DeVries, Nick freaking Blackburn and Sammy Deduno.
If Gibson starts in AAA there's a legit chance that with Gibson, Meyer and May the Rochester Redwings will have a better staff than the Twins. The hope is of course that there's one more signing coming in for the Twins. They still have some money under their self-imposed cap, so they just need to get some sucker to agree to sign on the dotted line.
Starters that are still out there:
Shaun Marcum is still kicking around. He doesn't throw hard and is kind of old (31 in two days), so maybe the Twins have interest. He's a better pitcher than Correia, but that likely means he'd cost more too. He's the chick at the bar that used to be pretty hot, and is probably still worth a roll.
Ryan Dempster is also out there and rumors indicate the Twins made an offer. He's already declined a two year/$25 million offer from the Red Sox because his old ass wants a three year deal. He's 36 in March and definitely on the decline, so if he's asking that much it's a definite no-go. Similar to Marcum, he's an older chick at the dive bar that really isn't all that hot but has big boobs at least.
Edwin Jackson is still out there! He still wants a multi-year deal and I'd still give it to him. (just like last year) He had probably his best year yet last season for the Nats when they gave him a one year, $12MM deal. He is reported to want a 4 or 5 year deal, probably in the 50-60MM range. Big bucks and we hate that. The dream scenario here is that Edwin hangs around until the zero hour and is forced to make bad decisions like he's at the bar until close and all of the cool franchises have already left with their pitchers and the Twins have been bellied up to the bar all night making kissy faces at him and he just goes for it.
Jair Jurrjens is available and has a fun name. The Twins reportedly are after him as well. He's just 26, but is coming off a brutal, Blackburnesque season. He is a former all-star though and could be a cheap, short term signing. He's the newly single chick at the bar that kind of let herself go because she was depressed and stuff, but now she's got a gym member ship and stuff and who knows what could happen?
Brett Myers is crazy and seems to just be drawing interest from the Orioles and Twins for the most part. He's the crazy chick that bites and scratches but mostly in a fun way.
Joe Saunders...made an offer already, meh. Lefty and still better than Corriea. He's the chick with the lazy eye.
Frankie Liriano also already offered. WTF? I think any other team in the league would be a better fit. I mean, how many chances does he need to prove he can't turn it aroun in Minnesota? He's the on again, off again girlfriend that cheats on you all of the time.
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| LOL Brett Myers |
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