Let's Talk About Hicks, Man

The most exciting thing about sports is potential.  Actually, the most exciting part is having the chance to see what that potential escape the realm of the imaginary and turn into something real - whether good or bad.  There's a reason people are generally excited about a new Star Wars Trilogy and it's the same concept.  The interest in getting in early on something that has the potential to be great sucks people in whether despite being burned countless times before (think Phantom Menace, Rico Tucker, or Francisco Liriano).  This, of course, brings us to Aaron Hicks.  There's little more exciting than the team's most MLB ready top prospect tearing shit up in Spring and getting the nod to jump from AA ball right to the bigs and bat leadoff.  All that, of course, is why his debut has been mostly a bummer, bro.

Things have been looking brighter lately with Hicks in the midst of a 5-game hit streak, but that still raises his batting average to just .118, which ranks dead last among those with enough PAs to qualify for the batting title.  This obviously is less than ideal.  There are lots of people who seem quite riled up by Hicks' slow start, including one guy I talked to at a bachelor party (for Grand Slam, for those of you who follow along with the cast of characters in my life) who couldn't have spent more time telling me how Hicks sucked and should be sent to AAA to get his swing straightened out.  To this I say, "dude shut up."

First of all, his BABIP is .167, well below league average and far below where he's been at every minor league stop (usually a decent amount north of .300) and is fourth worst in the majors.  Granted he hasn't hit a ton of line drives (only 3 so far this year in 44 balls put in play) but it would essentially be impossible to play an entire season with a BABIP below .200 (worst in the majors last year was Justin Smoak at .242).  That alone basically guarantees his average will get up to a minimum of .200 or so, and I'd be stunned if it ended up anywhere near that low.

Additionally, and perhaps most importantly, Hicks hasn't changed his approach from his minor league days, despite the rough start.  He was billed as a patient hitter and that hasn't changed and that's why he's on pace for 85-100 walks despite barely hitting .100.  His walk rate of 14.3% is actually fantastic, and ranks 15th in the majors, better than guys like Albert Pujols and your precious Joe Mauer.   On the flip side yes he's struck out a ton (29.9%, 17th in the majors) but he's only whiffed four times in the last 10 games after racking up 20 in the previous 10 so I'd say that, along with the big five game winning streak, tell me he's figuring this thing out.  It's worth noting that Hicks current .238 OBP is nearly as good as Ben Revere who is at .242 despite Revere's average (.207) being nearly 100 points higher.  Actually that's something worth looking at further, so I will.

Hicks' OBP is .238 and his average is .118 - a difference of .120.  That is a substantial difference so I investigated further.  That ties him with Giancarlo Stanton and A.J. Ellis for the 11th biggest difference in the league, with such stars as Joey Votto, Billy Butler, David Wright, and Ryan Braun in his neighborhood.   What does that mean?  It means the guy knows how to hit, and a combination of bad luck and his own slump have combined to make the numbers look like he can't.  Watching the guy and diving deeper into the numbers tell me the guy is still going to be a stud.

Not to mention he's a dynamic player who makes things happen.  Despite just 8 hits he has seven RBI and has scored 10 runs.  He and Colorado's Josh Rutledge are the only players to have more runs scored than hits this year, and only five players have more RBI per hit than Hicks does.  He makes things happen.  Add in his excellent defense and great base running and you still have a future star on your hands here, despite the slow start and weird Kevin Smith looking guys at bachelor parties opinions.

You hear me?  I will say again:

AARON HICKS IS STILL GOING TO BE A SUPER STAR!

And you can take that to the bank.

Monday Musings

 Are you in the mood to read 1,537 words?  Actually more now since I'm writing this introduction?  You are?  Oh good.  Because here they come. 

-  We've written about the Span trade, the Revere trade, and the Correia signing here already so I suppose I should put something to figurative paper about the Mike Pelfrey signing but I am struggling so hard to care. 

This adequately expresses my feelings.

I guess I'm in favor simply because it's mirroring what my strategy would be with this team: trade everyone with value, get as many prospects as you can, fill holes for this year with short, cheap contracts, and plan for 2014.  Signing Correia and Pelfrey does that, although giving Correia a second year is pretty mind-boggling.  Pelfrey should be a better pitcher than Correia (not saying much), but he's coming off Tommy John surgery so your mileage may vary.

Pelfrey is a former first round pick who has been thoroughly mediocre in his career (similarity scores at his age - 29 - put him like a Carl Pavano or Jake Westbrook at that age: ok, but not necessarily good.  A one year, $4 million dollar contract is a pretty good deal for him, especially because he's coming off Tommy John surgery which these days seems to make players better.  If he can get back to his mediocre ways or even slightly better - put up like a high 3s/low 4s ERA - he could end up being a good piece to trade at the deadline.  I'm realizing now I'm pretty obsessed with trading anything and everything of value and throwing in the towel this year.  And it's December.  Gonna be a fun season.  I do like the Rule 5 Ryan Pressly pick-up though.  Probably I could write about that and actually sound positive, but I'm not going to.  Although I will mention that I saw on MLB.com where they list each team's top 20 prospects that Pressly slots in at #17, so that's probably good, right?

-  What in the world is going on with the value of top prospects these days?  The Phillies send their #1 prospect to the Twins for Ben Revere.  The Royals send their top prospect (and #3 in all of baseball) away for James Shields, while the D-Backs ship out their #1 (and #5 overall) for good fielding no hitting shortstop prospect and a middle reliever.  Now the Jays are trading their #1 (#11 overall) and #3 (#83) for R.A. Dickey who, rumor has it, is 38.  It's starting to look like teams are looking more or more for when they have their "window" and just going for it, and since it's not just one team but multiple this may be the new trend.  The Phillies will have Revere for a while and the D-Backs got back a guy they hope is their SS for many years, but both the Royals and Jays are clearly going for it now, acquiring players who won't be on the team in 3 years.

The famous Doyle Alexander for John Smoltz trade worked out well for both team's and I'm guessing both organizations would do it again if they traveled back in time, but generally there's a pretty clear winner and loser in these types of deals.  If the Jays and Royals can get back to the playoffs for the first time in 20+ years even once you can probably say they made the right move, if not they payed an awfully steep price for the same results they'd have gotten anyway, but with a dash of disappointment mixed in.  That is, of course, assuming the prospects work out which is pretty much a given since they always do.

- Speaking of baseball transactions the one time that isn't doing anything that baffles me is the Baltimore Orioles.  Yeah, there was an awfully lot of luck on their side to make the playoffs, but they made them and clearly needed to make some upgrades if they want to get back, but they aren't doing much of anything.  So far their biggest moves are claiming Alexei Casilla, trading Robert Andino to Seattle for Trayvon Robinson (note:  I have no idea who this is), and re-signing Lew Ford to a minor league deal.  They need a corner OFer, a 1B after letting Mark Reynolds walk, a second baseman since Brian Roberts is always hurt and I'm pretty sure Casilla isn't the answer, and starting pitching help because Chen/Hammel/Gonzalez/Tillman/Britton is not going to get you into the playoffs again.  Also I just noticed that their designated hitter right now is Wilson Betemit - I mean these guys need some help.

I have no idea why they aren't after Swisher or LaRoche, not to mention Edwin Jackson or trying to at least work a trade with somebody like the Dodgers who have too many pitchers or figuring out something at 2b, even if it's just signing someone shitty like Kelly Johnson (he's better than Casilla).  Then again who knows, maybe they're smarter than me and waiting for the market to settle a bit and going after bargains.  They have plenty of young arms that could get decent pieces back to plug into the roster, but they've barely even been mentioned in rumors as far as doing anything that a whole bunch of waiver claims and minor league deals and getting rebuffed by Nate freaking Schierholz.  I don't get it.  If Baltimore's front office thinks they're in a place to compete again this year they're in for a big ole face slap.  Prime candidate to take the UNDER on wins once those wagers are released.

-  You know how two of our reader's (Loretta08 from Sippin' on Purple and Bear) hate hate hate Kevin O'Neill and consider him bar none the worst coach in NCAAB?  I agree he's pretty awful, but without question Bruce Weber is the worst.  The dude did nothing but underachieve at Illinois (after finishing national runner-up with Bill Self's players), including famously refusing to recruit a point guard instead content to force shooting guards to play out of position (first Demetri McCamey, then Brandon Paul) with mostly disastrous results and now he's screwing up Kansas State as well.  The Wildcats made the second round of the NCAA Tournament last year under Frank Martin and have basically the same team back.  They were ranked 37th in the AP Preseason Poll and 30th in the ESPN poll, while the Big 12 coaches picked them to finish 5th in the conference and I ranked them as the 33rd best team in the country.   So decent.

Now I readily admit there's nothing particularly damning here at 7-2.  Their only two losses are to Michigan and Gonzaga (and Gonzaga just killed them), but looking deeper it's just empty.  They barely beat a bad Delaware team and a horrible George Washington team, and two of their wins are over a non-D1 team and USC Upstate who is basically a non-D1 team.  They still might end up in the race for an NCAA bid because don't forget these are Frank Martin's players, but the end for this program is on the horizon.  Mark my words, in 2-3 years this program will be back in the depths of anonymity because BRUCE WEBER IS AWFUL.  Truth.

 

She hates Bruce Weber too I would assume.

-  It feels a bit weird writing all these words and not talking about the Gophers since I'm supposed to be a Gopher blog, but I live-blogged the last game so every thought I had that night (and many I didn't) has already been written.  Instead, real quick, I wanted to take a look and compare this year's Gopher team to the one from 1996-1997 which made the Final Four (yes, they did).

Both teams were coming off NIT seasons with minimal personnel losses from the prior year (1996 team lost only David Grim) and nothing in the way of impact freshmen coming in (that was the Loge/Sanden/Archambeau class - thanks dick).  Both had success in an early season tournament.  Both came into Big Ten play with just 1 loss (1996 loss was at Alabama, a team that would fail to make either the NIT or NCAA Tournament).  That team was ranked in the top 10 for the first time following the January 11th game against Michigan.  That year's Big Ten was much weaker than this year's version, with only Indiana (x2), Michigan (x2), and Illinois ranked at the time the Gophers played them and none ranked higher than 15th.  The Gophers were clearly the class of the league in 1996 as shown by winning the conference with a 16-2 record.  This year's team is going to be in a much tougher conference.  I remember thinking that team was special after the win @ Indiana, and I'm already thinking this year's team is special.  Seriously, I can barely handle waiting for that New Year's Eve day game.  We're going to learn so much.

-  Since I know you're dying for an update I made the semi-finals in both my important Pretend Football leagues and lost both, despite having the highest scoring team in both leagues this year, by scoring the fewest points either team put up all year thanks to having Ray Rice, Demaryious Thomas, and Hakeem Nicks in both leagues.  I hate that stupid fake sport.  I quit.

Fare thee Well, Ben Revere

The Twins, taking my advice and not standing pat, continued making moves at the Winter Meetings to improve pitching in the organization, a desperate and drastic need, this time shipping out Ben Revere to the Phillies for a couple of young arms, and in a Shyamalanian twist the return they got for him looks more impressive than what they got for his predecessor (mentor?  elder?) Denard Span.

I was a little bit surprised they would trade Revere since it seeded like such a natural thing to slide him into Span's spot, but it makes a lot of sense.  Revere is an elite fielder and has elite speed, but his lack of power, noodle arm, and questionable plate discipline were all major questions.  With his high rate of contact and slap hitting plus the speed and no power Revere's upside was pretty much Juan Pierre, which is fine, but when you have a chance to move a possible next Pierre for two good arms under 25 you pretty much have to do it.  When you also factor in that Aaron Hicks is a year away and considered a better prospect, not to mention eight billion other OFers who make up practically the Twins' entire top prospects list, it becomes a no brainer.

In getting Vance Worley from the Phillies the Twins' pick up a major league ready arm who still has upside, which is exactly what I'd hoped they'd end up getting by trading Span (although I am happy with the return they ended up getting for Denard).  Worley has been in the rotation for the Phils for the past two seasons (most of the time) and has put up an ERA of 3.60 with a WHIP of 1.37 those two years while striking out 7.7 batters per 9 innings, a stat I can only assume that confused the Twins since they hate striking guys out.  Worley isn't really a pure strikeout guy since his fastball maxes out in the low 90s (more like exactly 90, really) and he doesn't have a killer strikeout pitch (and actually his contact rate of 86.2% is about what Carl Pavano's was in his days as a Twin so it doesn't really make sense he strikes out nearly a batter an inning.  There are plenty of pitchers, however, who continue to defy what their peripheral stats say they should morph into at some point so it wouldn't be unprecedented for him to keep this up.  In any case it's not something to worry about.  Worley is a 25 year old middle-of-the-rotation starter who is now either the Twins' best or second best starter, depending on your feelings about Scott Diamond.  At that age there's still room for him to get better, and Worley would have been an acceptable return for Revere (or Span), but the Twins' got more.  Plus, dude rocks the Rec Specs.  Holla.

NERD.  ALERT.

Perhaps because Worley is coming off elbow surgery (although should be just fine) the Twins were also able to finagle Trevor May in the deal, and this my friends is one intriguing prospect.  Both Baseball America and MinorLeagueBall.com listed May as the Phillies #1 prospect coming into last year on the strength of a mid-90s fastball and some ridiculous strikeout rates (11 K/9 or better in every stop after rookie ball).  He hit Double-A this year and things were a little rougher, posting an ERA of 4.87 and a WHIP of 1.45, although he still struck out more than a batter per inning (9.1 per 9).   By all accounts May was struggling with location, which manifested itself both in more walks (4.7 per  nine) and hits allowed (8.4 per nine).  Interestingly, the 4.7 BB/9 was worse than the previous year, but was still better than 2008, 2009, and 2010 - the increased hits allowed is the real concern.  Given the Twins' relative success in developing pitchers with control - although generally that manifests more as few walks rather than pinpoint control - I'm cautiously optimistic.  In any case, dude has #1 stuff by all accounts and despite the issues with his command last year he's still considered the Twins #5 overall prospect by MLB.com (Sano/Buxton/Meyer/Hicks/May).  Awesome.

Looking at the two trades, let's count the positives:

1.  Traded a good, not great, player, but at a position where a MLB ready back-up was available with a comparable skill set to upgrade a position of weakness

2.  Traded a low cost, quality but limited player for two badly needed assets with a replacement a year away.

3.  Acquired a low cost, team controlled middle-of-the rotation (2-3-4 depending on development) starter under the age of 25.

4.  Acquired 2 big-time prospects with the potential to develop #1 type stuff who aren't soft-tossing nancy boys and actually show an interest in making people swing and miss.

5.  Recognized the team's biggest weakness (pitching throughout the organization) and biggest area of depth (Young OFers) and moved one for the other.

6.  Recognized that occasionally it's good to have pitchers who throw the ball so hard that professional hitters can't catch up to hit and/or have so much movement they can't hit it. 

And the negatives:

1.  Denard Span was a true leadoff hitter with a lead-off hitter skill set who was very affordable.

2.  Ben Revere was really fun to watch and a good guy who was super duper affordable.

3.  Darin Mastroianni will probably have to play CF now and maybe even lead-off too which is kind of gross.

That's all I got.  There's really no way to hate these trades, especially the Revere one.  The team upgraded it's biggest weakness (organization wide) by using it's biggest strength without hurting the future, only the present where they weren't going to contend anyway, while acquiring the exact type of player they're shied away from which has proven to be the type that can make a major difference.  Freaking awesome.  Even that Mastroianni crack was a little overdone, because he's not that big a drop from Revere.  Using WAR (and I confess I don't know what this means other than it tries to measure total value and is impacted by plate appearances) Revere was a 3.4 in 553 PAs, Mastroianni was a 1.5 in just 186.  Game freaking on, brohan.  We goin' Sizzla.



As far as the Gophers won pretty easily in LA, beating USC 71-57 by doing what they've done all year:  tough perimeter defense (USC 1-9 on 3s, hitting the boards (out-rebounded the Trojans 36-29), turned over the opponent (17 TOs), and moved the ball (16 assists).  Since the game was on the Pac-10 Network which nobody in Minneapolis gets and I went to the bar with Bogart, Bear, Snake, Dawger, and Crazy Eddie instead of staying in and watching it on my computer I don't really have much else to say.  They're now poised to crusie to wins over NDSU and LaFayette and go into their December 31 game against Michigan State at 12-1 and likely ranked in or near the Top 10.  Michigan State at home is pretty much the perfect test for this team if you want to know where they stand.  If they're as good as I think they are they should handle Sparty at home.  If they don't, you know we're looking at fool's gold once again.  Pretty much the biggest game in Gopher history since the Final Four.  No biggie.

Fare thee Well, Denard Span

As I'm certain everyone is aware by now the Twins traded Denard Span late last week to the Nationals for minor league pitching prospect Alex Meyer.  At first blush I was down on the trade, having hoped the Twins could turn the talented Span into a MLB ready mid-rotation starter type (like Jeremy Hellickson, for example) but the more I've read about it and spent time thinking about the move the more I like it.

Meyer (and you can read more about him here at Aaron Gleeman's blog or Keith Law at ESPN or really anywhere they talk Twins) is a former first round pick who lit up A and A+ ball in his first pro season last year.  He's already 22 so the good numbers are not surprising for an older player at that level, but that also means that he should progress through the system fairly rapidly, hopefully landing at AAA at some point this coming season and then ready for the rotation in 2014.  He throws in the mid-90s and can touch 100 at times (which means his downside is likely a pretty good reliever although hopefully it doesn't come to that) and has what one scout I read somewhere called "a truly filthy slider."  He's working on a change-up as a third pitch that apparently "could become average" which doesn't sound great but as a third pitch is just fine when he already has two plus pitches.  Even better, he struck out more than a batter an inning which means the Twins have recognized that having soft-tossing strike throwers is fine, but you can't have those exclusively and need some power arms.  With Meyer, Kyle Gibson, and a couple of the guys they drafted this year they seem to at least be recognizing that fact.  I also heard that Meyer is now the #1 pitching prospect in the system, ahead of Gibson.  He's a really, really good get for the team.

Losing Span certainly hurts (he was one of my favorites after Kubel left), but a move with him had to made.  He's one of the sickeningly few attractive trade pieces this team has with his elite leadoff skills, quality defense, and team friendly contract and the Twins need to rebuild the entire organization at this point.  With Revere ready to step in now and hopefully Aaron Hicks in two years the Twins already have guys who have the potential to replace Span's skillset.  Revere is a better outfielder already and has increased his OBP each of the last two seasons, reaching .333 in 2012 which was just shy of Span's number (.342) and actually better than Denard's OBP in 2011, and Hicks is supposed to be even better.  Add in the organizational depth of top prospects in the outfield (Buxton, Arcia, Rosario, even Joe Benson plus Hicks) and it was a no brainer to get the best they could for Span, and it looks like they got a pretty good return, even if it's a lottery ticket of sorts.

From here I can see two viable directions for the Twins to go in.  On one hand, you say, this team and organization is broken, time to rebuild.  Trade every asset for whatever you can get.  Willingham should certainly bring a decent package, and for the right team needing a first baseman Justin Morneau would be attractive - although in his case you're probably better off waiting for this year's trade deadline when other team's needs seem more urgent and hopefully he can show he's all the way (or nearly) back.  I don't know if they have anybody else they could possibly trade (Doumit?).  Maybe Glen Perkins if he gets a bunch of saves and somebody is desperate for a lefty reliever.  It's also possible they see Perkins as their closer of the future (hint:  he's not) and won't shop him, but they should if they go in this direction.

The other way to go is to try to sign the right mix of players to turn this into a competitive team, which basically means pitching.  With Span gone that gives them somewhere in the neighborhood of $30 million in payroll to play with, based on their comment about a payroll target for this year.  You can do some good things and become a competitive team in this horrible division for that kind of money.  You could sign Brandon McCarthy ($5 mil), Edwin Jackson ($11 mil), Kevin Correia ($5 mil), and like, Marco Scutaro ($8 mil).  I don't know how long you'd want to/have to extend those guys, but then you're looking at this lineup:

CF Revere
2b Scutaro
C  Mauer
LF Willingham
1B Morneau
DH Doumit
3B Plouffe
RF Parmalee
SS Dozier

Not bad.  Don't forget the Twins had a solid offensive team last year, and this is a pretty similar look with Revere in for Span and Scutaro in for Casilla.  That's a net win.

And here's your rotation:

1.  Jackson
2.  McCarthy
3.  Diamond
4.  Correia
5.  Deduno/Devries/Hendriks, etc.

Certainly better than last year.

Can that team, assuming an adequate bullpen which admittedly is a pretty big assumption, compete in the AL Central?  Probably for second place, and they aren't going to be in the Wild Card race.

I can see, and make an argument for, either approach.  I would probably prefer to trade away everybody and try to remake the entire team, but I can also see something like the above to stay competitive to keep bringing the rubes to the park and pocketing that sweet cash to hopefully re-invest in the team.  Naturally, the Twins will probably do something like sign Freddy Garcia and Derek Lowe and Wilson Valdez and Austin Kearns and call it a day, not making any moves for the future nor significantly upgrading the team and ending up sucking again while not building for the future.

Then again, Terry Ryan is back instead of Bill Smith, so there's some reason for optimism.  Either way, it's going to be an interesting off-season.  Actually it already has been.  Do more, Terry.

Ben Revere

I suppose it's high time we talked about Ben Revere, who is hitting .342 this season, which is behind only Paul Konerko in the American League among players with at least 100 at-bats.  So, what's up?

Since being recalled from the minors and pretty much put into the lineup, Revere has hit .355 with 11 multi-hit games.  I'm pretty sure that's really good but when I tried to see where that ranked him I see that there have been 3,964 multi-hit games this year and since you can only download the data for 300 at one time I'm going to go ahead and not do anything further with this information.  He is being helped out by a very high BABIP of .365 right now, but with his speed he's bound to beat out a few more balls than most so I'd expect that to settle in around .310 or so.  His walk rate is down a bit, but it was always pretty obvious he wasn't going to be a walk machine so that's not all that troubling to me, and more encouraging is his K-rate has nearly been cut in half, which shows he's figuring out big league pitching.  His line drive rate has also increased compared to last year and he has yet to hit a pop-up in 2012.  These are all encouraging signs that although he might not be a .340 hitter, he's probably trending towards that .310-.320 type of mark.  Excellent.

One of the biggest concerns with Revere last year was an almost complete lack of power.  His Isolated Power (SLG-AVG, a way to look at slugging without it being inflated by a high batting average) last season was just .042, which ranked him dead last in the majors behind such bombers as Juan Pierre, Jason Bartlett, and our own Jamey Carroll.  It wasn't just a lack of power, it was a frightening lack of power.  Happily, with five doubles and two triples so far this year, he's nearly doubled his ISO to .081 - still near the bottom of the league, but at least he's showing middle infielder power now instead of little leaguer power.  His increase in line drive rate says he could maybe even uptick from here a bit if that trend holds, but based on his minor league power numbers this is pretty close to what we can expect from him going forward.  Because of his speed, high average, and fielding he doesn't need to hit for power to be valuable, but it is nice to see he has at least managed to hit a gap now and again.

And speaking of fielding, the dude is just breath-taking out there at times.  Remember this?


I mean.  Like whoa.  Now he's basically blocked from player center field because Denard Span's little tiny baby feelings will be hurt if they move him even though everybody who watches the Twins knows Revere is the better CF, but that hasn't stopped Revere from being the best corner outfielder with a noodle arm he can be.  His Ultimate Zone Rating in right field this year (no I don't know what this is or how to calculate it) is 5.7, which ranks him as the fourth best right fielder in the majors.  But since he missed some time when he was down on the farm and apparently UZR is a counting stat, when that's extrapolated out to 150 games he comes in as the #1 fielding right fielder in the game - and it's not even close.  For reference sake, Revere's UZR in CF last year (he's barely been out there this year so the data is wonky) was 8.5, 15.1 per 150 games.  Span's this year is 0.6 and 1.8 (in fairness last year Denard put up 9.0 and 17.6, so it's not like he's a slug out there or anything and they aren't killing themselves keeping him in center, it's just obvious that Revere has other-worldly range and should cover the 1/3 of the earth that water doesn't cover).  For their careers Revere is 7.5 and 12.8 in center while Span is 5.7 and 2.3.  So, despite Span putting up good numbers last year, that spot should be Revere's.  Holy shit was that a lot of nerd talk but how else do you talk about fielding other than, "Dude did you see that?"  Anyway.

And then there's Revere's speed on the bases.  According to the stat nerds, the risk/reward of a stolen base is worth taking the chance as long as you can steal at a 75% success rate.  Revere is at 78% in his career and 83% this year, with a career minor league success rate of 74%, so yes he should keep stealing and yes he's adding value on the base paths.  He's still mainly stealing off his pure speed with little technique, but his improvement from year-to-year hopefully he means he's refining his technique and will continue to get better with age rather than relying on pure speed, which will eventually drop off.  Running the bases is probably the most difficult thing to put into numbers, but naturally some nerd has done it and Revere rates at 8.3 on the scale where anything over 7.0 is considered an excellent baserunner.  So I guess there's that.

In conclusion, I love Ben Revere and he's rounding into the player Twins' fans hoped he'd be.  He's never going to develop more than 3-tools (speed, fielding, hitting for average with power and arm out of reach) but if he maximizes those three he's going to be the Twins' center fielder of the future and a quality lead-off hitter (and if he learns a little plate discipline he could even edge towards "great.")  In short, trade Denard Span.

Next one of these I'm going to do is on Trevor Plouffe who went yard again tonight.  I was going to do both these guys in this post but holy shit am I lazy.

Manager of the Year

As sad and pathetic as it is there are actually psychopaths out there who truly believe Ron Gardenhire is a great manager.  Well to those of you who are out there I am sorry to tell you that a great big giant fist just ripped its way through the anus of your argument today, because Gardy started Ben Revere in right field tonight against the Red Sox.

Assuming you have heard of baseball you are no doubt aware that one of the main prerequisites for a right fielder is a good arm, owing to the fact that at times you'll have to make the throw from right field to third base - basically the longest throw in the game.  In fact I'd say the only prerequisite to playing right field is having a decent arm given the list of nearly immobile stiffs who've patrolled right in baseball history.  Instead tonight Gardy put Ben Revere out there, the player with one of the worst outfield arms in history and the guy who throws the ball in a way generally reserved for women, children, invalids, and Shannon Stewart.

And who was in left field, typically the outfield position given to the player with the worst arm?  Delmon Young.  Now, Delmon's arm will never be confused with Roberto Clemente or Carlos Gomez or that kid from that movie, but just watching the games you know his arm is far, far better than Revere's.  We can even go into nerd stats a bit to prove this, although full disclaimer:  I don't know how good these fielding stats are, but they're better than nothing.

According the the Arm Runs Above Average stat Delmon's arm has been that of a completely average outfielder this year, at 0.1 runs better than the average, and over his career his arm has actually been very good, mostly due to a couple of great throwing years in Tampa, including 2007 where he threw out an impressive 16 runners on the bases, all of which coming as a DUH DUH DUH right fielder. 

Revere's arm on the other hand has been 2 runs worse than average, meaning his arm alone has given teams 2 more runs than an average arm would so far this year, so you're looking that an arm that costs the team about 4 runs in a full season, and that's as a CF/LF (note:  he more than makes up for that with his range, but that's not what we're talking about).

So we have clear evidence, both quantitative as well as qualitative, that Revere has a terrible arm and much worse than Delmon Young.  So why would Revere play in right and Young in left?  I can think of two reasons, and neither is flattering for your favorite manager.

The first possibility is that Delmon Young said "I'm not comfortable playing Right Field" which doesn't make any sense because that was his main position when he was with Tampa.  It also doesn't make sense because when a player says "I don't want to do this" when it's something that clearly would help the team a good manager would say "Tough, do it or sit or be traded."  Since we've seen Gardy roll over like a frenchman in the past when it comes to letting the players run the team this is, unfortunately, a distinct possibility.

The other reason I can come up with is that Gardenhire is a moron.  You know how a lot of times in the past (and present) whenever he'd do the lineup if somebody was filling in for a regular he'd just put them in the same spot in the batting order?  So like, last year if Casilla was playing for Hudson he'd hit Casilla second even though it greatly weakened the lineup or Mike Redmond batted third a bunch of times when Mauer would sit?  I'm betting there is a good chance this is the same stupid crap.  Kubel would normally play RF but with a tough lefty on the mound he's sitting for Revere (who, by the way, is also left-handed and is hitting 73 points worse vs. lefties than Kubel this year).  So rather than do the smart, logical thing and shift Delmon to right and play Revere in left, he just plugs Revere into Kubel's outfield spot because apparently not only is shuffling a lineup similar to solving Fermat's Theorem, but changing around the outfield is akin to figuring out the alchemical fucking formula to turn lead into gold.

Honest to god.  So the two options are either the manager is incompetent and lazy, or spineless and stupid.  Manager of the Year though, and they can't take that away from him.  I looked it up.

- As long as I'm here I might as well tell you guys about the latest Danny Dan Gladdenism I heard on the radio, and no I have no idea why I've heard so much Twins radio this year, it's not like I'm a long haul trucker.  So about a week ago whoever the new announcer guy is brings up the Moneyball movie that's coming out.  Gladden says, and I'm paraphrasing here but the the same points remain, "Yeah I know about Moneyball, that book by Billy Beane.  I just don't think that kind of stuff works.  I'm not going to see that movie.  I didn't read the book and I'm not going to see the movie."

The book isn't by Beane, it's just about him, and he doesn't think "that kind of stuff" works but he never read the book and thus can't possibly know what it talks about other than "stats" which is not really the point of the book anyway.  Just a beautiful way to sum up Dan Gladden, and all of the staunchly "old school" guys who hate the idea that there are newer, more advanced stats that can help understand some parts of the game at a different level.  God I miss Fire Joe Morgan.

-  Lastly, take a look at these two rotations and tell me which you'd rather have.

Pitcher 1:   3.21 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 3.75 K/BB
Pitcher 2:   4.71 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 2.10 K/BB
Pitcher 3:   5.00 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 1.47 K/BB
Pitcher 4:   4.58 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 1.54 K/BB
Pitcher 5:   4.56 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 2.23 K/BB

OR

Pitcher 1:   3.45 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 2.40 K/BB
Pitcher 2:   3.56 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 2.50 K/BB
Pitcher 3:   3.81 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 2.88 K/BB
Pitcher 4:   3.72 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 2.44 K/BB
Pitcher 5:   4.41 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 2.34 K/BB

The first group is the current Twin rotation, the second group is Kyle Lohse, Matt Garza, Phil Humber, R.A. Dickey, and Livan Hernandez.  Isn't that the most saddest depressing thing you've ever heard?  Seriously if it wasn't for the tens of dollars I'm making from advertising on this site I'd burn it to the ground.  Through the computer or something.  I heard if you put a match in the USB port cool shit happens.

-  Lastly, and this time I mean lastly, I just want to mention that there is a already a sequel filming for the world's most awesome movie, and everything about it looks awesome.  From the name (Piranha 3dd) to the new additions to the cast (David Hasslehoff, the guy who plays Todd Packer on the office, and the incomparably insane Gary Busey) everything looks just right.  Usually sequels have a low % chance to be good, but the first one was so good as hitting everything you want in a creature/horror movie (hot chicks, boobs, gratuitous nudity, making the bad guy the true star, lots of killing, and creative deaths - second only to the Friday the 13ths here) that I totally trust them here and can't wait to see this.  Between this and Shark Night it's a banner year for killer fish movies.

Twins/A's Live Blog - 7/29/11

Well let's see:  kids are asleep, wife is sick and passed out in bed fro the Nyquil I slipped into a glass of wine, the Twins have a late game and I have brand new bottle of Captain Morgan, a mostly full 2-liter of ginger ale, and a few sticks of Lawry's hickory beef jerky sitting around.  Yeah.  I might as well blog the game.  What else am I gonna do, watch it with nothing to distract me?

10:00 - We are just beginning the top of the fourth, Twins lead 3-2.  And I've looked at that three times and thought maybe the 3 was a typo or a backwards E and the misspelled Twins, but apparently the Twins are actually leading.  Weird.

10:02 - Two quick outs and then a single by Tolbert, who is back on the big league club because he has a pulse and Alexi Casilla is on the DL which is weird because I never even knew he was hurt.  How did this happen?  Is this one of those injuries where you sneeze and throw out your back or burn your hand on the grill trying to save a piece of ostrich burger from slipping through the grate onto the dirty coals below?  Also, I guarantee I miss Casilla more than I ever would have thought possible right now.  WAY TO BE ADEQUATE, guy. 

10:04 - While I was looking up the spelling of adequate to make sure I had it right (I did) whoever was up popped out.  I'm going guess it was Butera.  But man can that son a bitch sling that pill.  He should be a pitcher.

10:05 -  Actually he'd be a terrible pitcher because, although he could probably touch 98 on the gun, his ball is completely straight, as it should be for a catcher, so he'd just get ripped.  Although Matt Capps seems to find a modicum of success by throwing a straight ball and it's about 8 mph slower, so who knows?  They should try it.  Couldn't be worse than Dumatrait.

10:07 - Clearly Liriano brought his A-game tonight since he just gave up a double to Hideki freaking Matsui.  Of course, even though he's having by far the worst season of his major league career he'd still be the fourth best hitter on the Twins.  Seriously he'd be third in extra-base hits and fourth in OPS+. OPS+, you'll remember, takes your OPS and compares it to the league average and spits out a number where 100 = completely average hitter.  Matsui's is 96 this year.  And he'd be fifth on the Twins.  And that's if you count Thome and Kubel.  I'm moving out of state.

10:12 - Damn.  Just read that Asomugha signed with the Eagles.  He was almost a Jet and I wanted to see what that would be like with Asomugha and Revis on the same team.  Would teams throw at all?  And you could always have an extra safety to either play up to stop the run or load up against a TE or a 3rd wideout.  How could anybody ever score ever?  I really wanted to see that.  Freaking jerks.  Also the Twins turned a DP and are out of the inning.

10:15 - Ben Revere just picked up a bunt hit by making and absolutely terrible bunt that he popped up over the pitchers head but beat it out because he's so god damn fast.  That was a terrible terrible play but holy god on a cracker is he fun to watch.

10:16 - Speaking of Revere I just don't know about this possible Span trade.  I don't think Revere is ready to be a leadoff hitter and they don't have another one.  On the other hand it's not like Span is the greatest player in the world, and he's basically an average leadoff hitter and that's it.  I guess if Drew Storen is included I won't hate it hate it, but I just can't imagine loving a Span trade.  He still has value for the next several years.

10:18 - Steal by Revere, base hit by Plouffe to score him, and then a single by Mauer.  Shit, if I knew it was gonna be that kinda party I'd a sticked my dick in the mashed potatoes.

10:22 -  Well this will shock you, but Cuddy just struck out on a ball outside of the strikezone.  Honest to god it doesn't even matter how well he may be running or hot hot he is at least once a week he's going to have an at-bat where he honest to god looks like he's never played baseball before.  It's a law, like water or dinosaurs.

10:25 - Dick just called Cliff Pennington "Chris" Pennington.  Ha ha you're old.  Serious question though, do you really think Dick knows a lot about baseball?  Or John Gordon for that matter?  Do you think they ever watch a game they aren't calling?  Do you think either of them ever read up on what's going on around the league other than to prep for the team the Twins are about to play?  How many National League players do you think they could name combined?  Albert Pujols, Roy Halladay, and about 8-10 former Twins?  Probably a couple of Brewers?  Seriously, do you think they could tell you anything about Brian McCann?  It's not like he's a household name but he's a damn good player, maybe the best catcher in baseball, and a guy any MLB fan would know, but I think if you put the two of them in a room together and asked them to tell you who McCann is they'd probably piece it together but there answers would have a lot of question marks attached.  "Uh, Atlanta?"  "Umm, I think he's a catcher?"  Am I off here.

10:36 -  By the way, we won our co-ed softball championship.  It was awesome because the team we beat was a bunch of douchers, especially their pitcher, and he got doubled off first on a line drive for the last out of the game and then probably went home and killed himself.  Also great was in the semifinal when we beat another douche team whose biggest douche guy was their shortstop, and in one of the last innings with two outs we had Snacks on first and another fast guy up (whose nickname is Douche, interestingly enough) and after Douche singled Snacks was on third and their doucher shortstop had the ball and we know he's dumb so Douche dances off the base just far enough to entice douchestop to throw it to first at which point Snacks takes off for home and their first base girl stands there like she's lost and the radio is playing some Sixpence None the Richer and Snacks scores.  And it's great because we won by one run.  Such it douche shortstop.

10:40 - Bases loaded and one out for Revere after a four-pitch walk to Butera.  Think about that one.  I'm thinking maybe Gio Gonzalez doesn't have it tonight.  Honestly just throw the ball down the middle to Butera, even if he makes great contact it's probably still just a fly out.  Sure can fire that ball though.

10:43 - And Gonzalez walks Revere to force in a run.  Again, it's Ben Revere.  Just throw the damn thing down the middle.  The farthest he can hit it would be just short of the center fielder.  It's like a real hitter try to hit a kitten ball - it's just not going to go that far.  Good lord it would suck to be an A's fan.  Way to go, Bear.  way to go.

10:50 - Jesus Blyleven has his Joe Mauer love pants on tonight.  He's complimented Mauer as a "great hitter" three times already tonight and compared him to Wade Boggs (a guy whose career average Mauer has only beaten in a season twice).  The latest - Mauer is so good, he's just not afraid to get to 0-2 in the count, he knows he can hit.  Ok.  I'm going to go ahead and look this up.  Hold on.  Mauer this year:  1-29 after reaching 0-2 in an at-bat.  Once again Bertram, your insight is compelling and sounds good but is completely inaccurate.  Just like your face.

10:58 - Whoa, look at that.  Suddenly it's the bottom of the sixth and the A's have two runners on with nobody out.  This is kind of shit that happens if I don't pay attention.  At least Conor Jackson is up, although thinks would be better for the Twins if it was Daric Barton.  What do you think Dick could tell you about either of those guys?  Seriously, am I wrong here? 

11:00 - Bob Welch and Barry Zito both won Cy Young awards?  Maybe we just blow that award right up.

11:01 -  Wait, you're going to tell me Matsui wasn't out of the baseline there?  He was on the infield grass.  Clearly I don't understand the rule. 

11:03 -  Speaking of things I don't understand, why would anybody give WR1 money to James Jones?  Apparently he's a huge target of some teams this offseason and the Vikings might be one of them.  Honest to little baby mary jesus whoever gives him a truckload of cash is going to end up with nothing but blue balls from all the excitement he doesn't deliver on.  The guy is absolutely freaking terrible.  And for those of you in my fantasy leagues no this is not a bit or a feint to throw you off - he's awful and I'd never draft him.  He catches as well as the Venus de Milo.

11:11 - Delmon Young walked.  So that's weird.

11:13 - Hughesy strikes out to end the threat.  Probably because Dawger loves him.

11:14 - Gotta say, I think this new Planet of the Apes movie looks kind of good.  And I have no interest in any of the Planet of the Apes movies outside of Estella Warren's sweet can in the Marky Mark version.  Whatever happened to that broad?  She should probably do a shark movie on SyFy.

11:20 -  1-2-3 seventh for Liriano.  Twins winning 5-2 still.  Beef jerky gone.  Still plenty of booze.  Interest level = waning.  Luckily Liriano is done and they're going to the pen so things are going to get interesting in a hurry.  I just hope we either get some Dumatrait or some Burnett.  Smells like runs!

11:24 - Bert think the reason Oakland has never had a batting champion is because of all the foul territory that's in play at their stadium.  and this is the part where I feel stupid because I only wrote that prior sentence because I was sure Carney Lansford won a batting title when he was with Oakland and was going to point that out but it turns out Lansford won it when he was with Boston. Oops.  He did, at least, finish second in 1989. 

11:29 -  Butera with a double!  Don't worry, he just placed it down the line perfectly he didn't hit it to the wall or anything so you don't have to change your worldview.

11:31 - RBI Babe Plouffe.  All he does is produce.

11:31 -  That swing right there Cuddyer.  That's pathetic.  That's not an all-star swing and hell that's not even a professional swing.  More of a "Joes vs. Pros" thing where this particular Joe never played baseball in his god damn life.  I like Cuddy, I really do, but holy black taco does he ever frustrate.

11:33 -  Well now he just hit a 3-run dong.  All I do is motivate.  Suck it, Bear.

11:36 -  Funny thing is that this Michael Wuertz guy is supposedly one of the guys the A's should look to move because there's a lot of interest.  This probably isn't going to help, especially since after that home run he's now walked Mauer and Young back-to-back.  Yes that's two walks for Delmon.  I'm assuming that's a career high.  Also I would have bet you money that Wuertz was a lefty.  I guess I don't know players as well as I thought.  OH NO!!  I'M DICK BREMER!!!

11:43 -  9-2 as we go to the bottom of the 8th.  Boredness and tiredness levels off the charts.  So instead here is a picture of Gardy at the greatest bar in the world, Roddy's in North St. Paul. 

He may not have a freaking clue how to manage a game, but his taste in drinking establishments is impeccable.

11:50 -  So this is interesting.  No, not the game, even though Jose Mijares is just lollypopping the ball and the A's have a couple runners going.  Apparently the Pirates are hard after Jason Kubel.  I love Kubel and would hate to see him go (home run Josh Willingham, it's now 9-5 - trade Mijares now before he eats himself out of interest), but depending on what you get back, you never know.  The Pirates are loaded with pitching prospects (always a plus) and also one of their top prospect guys is a catcher, which would give the Twins the flexibility to make Mauer play somewhere else.  I don't know, but it's pretty interesting.

12:07 -  Alex Burnett is so bad.

12:14 - Twins win.  I'm tired.  You suck.

MLB 2011 Mid-Year Check-In, Part I

Since we're at the symbolic mid-year point for the 2011 MLB season, I might as well give you some thoughts to chew on from my super smart brain.  I'm going to go with the pleasant resultss so far this year today, and tomorrow I'll toss out the big disappointments.  As usual, we'll be covering the entire league as well as your local nine.  In no particular order:

1.  Michael Cuddyer.  I wrote him up glowingly just a week ago, but I'm just stunned by my own turnaround him.  Thanks to his knack for picking up his hitting when the team most needs his bat as well as his willingness to play wherever and whenever he's needed (unlike many others on this sissified team) I've come around on everything I used to hate.  The two things I hated most were his inability to law off the outside slider in the dirt when he had 2 strikes even though he knows it's coming and his media-whore-ishness. 

At this point, however, I've just come to accept that almost everybody has a hole in their swing and that's just his, and I'm beginning to realize his mediawhoreishness is really just attempt to be a team leader.  Seeing how Joe Mauer is an emotionless robot and Justin Morneau usually can no longer remember what day it is or what his name is, Cuddy's tried to become the leader the team needs.  Since he's really just a country bumpkin at heart it doesn't really come off all that well but at least he's trying.  

Hopefully they trade him for a prospect and then resign him at a reduced price next season.   Although I want Kubel back as well.  So I guess they need to trade Delmon Young, whose value is at an all-time low, and Denard Span, who looks like he may never play again.  This team can't even build a roster correctly. 

2.  Jose Bautista.  Let me guess.  You, like everybody else, figured Jose Bautista for a Brady Anderson like fluke last year, whether it was due to steroids or just some weird convergence of craziness or something.  I did, but after his start to this year - leading the majors with 31 homers already - I'm sold.  Maybe I'm really stupid, and obviously it's not out of the questions that he's getting pharmacological help for two years rather than just the one, but I'm now a believer.  Maybe I just want to believe.  I don't know.  It's not like this kind of neither never happens - it's just rare.

3.  Ben Revere.  I have to admit I was never really all that excited for Ben Revere.  All I ever heard was how he was basically the next Juan Pierre, and statistically Pierre isn't all that great.  He gets a lot of hits but makes a lot of outs because he never walks and he's fast with no power.  I wasn't interested.  But now that Revere is here, I get the good stuff.

Yeah, he'd still be better if he walked a bit more often and unless he develops some power he's going to struggle because the outfielders, especially the left-fielders, can play him shallow and take away that slap single to left, but he's fun to watch, no doubt.  Incredible fast, maybe the fastest Twin on the bases I can remember along with Guzman and Gomez, hits well enough, can steal bases, and is the best defensive CFer the team has had since Puckett.  I'm on board.  Whether he can ever develop into a true leadoff type hitter or will be more doomed to be a #9 is yet to be seen, but his downside is an exciting bottom of the order guy with his upside an all-star lead off hitter.  What's not to love?

4.  Adrian Gonzalez.  Remember how Gonzalez put up like sickening good numbers hitting in the grand canyon that is Petco Park while being surrounded in the lineup by guys like Chase Headley and Ryan Klesko and everybody said that he'd kill the league after he signed with Boston?  Well it's happening.  .354 to lead the league with 77 rbi to lead the league and 17 homers (ranks 10th).  If you're curious, a season with a .350 BA, 25 homers, and 120 rbi has only been done three times since 2000 (Pujols, Larry Walker, Magglio Ordonez) and not once since 2007.  Pretty crazy stuff.

5.  Justin Verlander.  Speaking of crazy, Verlander is having an absolute monster year of a career year, which is pretty amazing considering he's already finished in the top-11 in Cy Young voting four times in his six year career.  His ERA of 2.15 is a full run better than his previous career best while his WHIP of 0.87 is 0.3 better than his career high and his 12 wins so far are nearly 2/3rds of the way to his high of 19 (that's right, somehow Verlander has never won 20 in a season).  Looking at the nerd stats he's pitching nearly identically to how he usually does style wise, but the results have been better so we can expect Verlander to come back towards his career averages a bit (which is good for Twins' fans) but he's still a damn good pitcher either way wit the inside track on his first Cy Young win.  I really really wish the Twins could find a way to get somebody like this someday.  Come on, Kyle Gibson.

6.  Jose Reyes.  The Mets aren't very good or anything, but have been slightly better than expected aat around .500 and the biggest reason is that Jose Reyes has been completely and totally ridiculous.  He's currently leading the NL in batting average at .354 which is made even more ridiculous by the fact that he was hitting just .310 on May 22nd but has hit .413 in the 34 games since with multiple hits in 22 of those 34 games.  Basically with a crappy team whose #2 and #3 players are hurt in David Wright and Johan Santana they're in a position to get a huge return if they can find a trade partner for Reyes.  He's a free agent so they need to move him (or sign him I guess since they're a New York team).  Maybe the Twins could get him for a Mauer + Casilla combo.  Do it. 

7.  Paul Konerko.  Sort of lost in all the hub-bub over Jose Bautista transforming from 4th outfielder to most feared hitter in the AL has been Konerko's transformation from washed up old man to 2nd most feared hitter in the AL.  Although I'm sure all Twins' fans have noticed.  From 2004-2006 he was incredible with 3 top-22 MVP years, but then started a skid that looked like it was pretty much the final slide of his career.  In fact, for 3 straight years from 2007-2009 he was pretty average and an average hitting first baseman isn't very good.  But then last year - boom - .312 with 39 homers and he's continued it this year by hitting .319 with 22 HRs to this point.  Actually, know that I think about, Konerko's resurgence should probably be more suspicious than Bautista's transformation, but it just isn't because he's a rare commodity (a non-douchey White Sock) and it's fun to say Konerko Konorked it.   


8.  Scott Baker.  With all the hand-wringing over the Twins', and particularly over the state of the starting pitching, somehow it's been lost that Baker is having a career year.  His ERA at the break is just 3.01, ranking him tenth in the AL, which is a full run better than his career mark.  And, after an uncharacteristic start to the season where he was struggling to find the strike zone he's now got his walk rate down back where it traditionally belongs and is doing it while putting up a career high strikeout rate.  Basically he appears to really be coming into his own and he's doing it by doing things he can control:  strikeout rate, walk rate, and home run rate (which is down this year).  He's shown too many flashes in the past for me to be straight up excited by this and I have to say there's a big part of me that's just waiting for the regression, but I'm definitely mildly intrigued. 

9.  Michael Pineda.  Credit goes to Snake for drafting this guy for our fantasy team, but he's been an absolute gem.  His 8 wins lead all AL rookie pitchers and he also leads in WHIP at 1.04, ERA at 3.03, and strikeouts at 103.  In short, he's been a complete rookie stud who is the leading candidate to win AL Rookie-of-the-Year and a fabulous compliment to Felix Hernandez, giving Seattle an excellent 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation.  Unfortunately outside of those two, Justin Smoak, Ichiro, and Dustin Ackley the entire team is worse than the worst Twin.  Yeah, for real.

10.  Pittsburgh Pirates.  Speaking of teams that are usually really bad you have to hand it to the Pirates who, at 47-43, have a decent chance to finish over .500 for the first time in 18 years, and actually sent three players to the All-Star game.  Since they hired Neal Huntington as GM in 2007 they've been very patient and have worked to build their farm system and it's now starting to pay off (not unlike what the Royals are doing).  They've mainly worked through the draft (picking up Andrew McCutchen, Neil Walker, Pedro Alvarez) that way, but have also done well in trades, nabbing Jose Tabata from the Yankees (in the Xavier Nady/Damaso Marte trade that also netted Jeff Karstens), Ronny Cedeno from the Mariners for Jack Wilson, as well as starters James McDonald (from the Dodgers) and Charlie Morton (from the Cubs) for Octavio Dotel and Nate McLouth and they signed all-star Kevin Correia as a free agent and grabbed all-star Joel Hanrahan from the Nats for nothing.  They're definitely building something in Pittsburgh.  Whether they can go any further or if this is it, it's gotta be exciting if you're a Pirate fan.  Assuming those still exist.

Week in Review - 6/13/2011

Guess who had Ruler on Ice to win the Belmont at 42-1?   Yep.  I know my only published pick (via Twitter) was Master of Hounds so you'll just have to take my word for it.  That means I've nailed the winner in the last two triple crown races and my two picks finished 2nd and 3rd in the Kentucky (and I picked the winner of the derby last year).  I think it's safe to say I'm awesome at handicapping horses.  So I celebrated by cooking up some steaks, and I want to share the method here with you - the Alton Brown method.  Simply salt and pepper your steak, then turn a burner on the stove up to high and preheat your oven at 500 degrees.  Once everything is heated up, toss some olive oil in a cast iron pan and throw the steaks in there on the burner.  2-minutes each side to get a nice sear.  Then throw them in the oven and go two minutes per side again (may have to adjust up or down for desired doneness).  And that's it.  Super simple and completely delicious, maybe even superior to using the grill.  Give it a shot.

Now on to the boring part.

WHO WAS AWESOME

1.  Francisco Liriano.  He ended up losing the no-hitter and the shutout, but Franky's outing on Sunday against Texas was far, far more impressive than the actual no-hitter he threw earlier this year.  He was actually hitting his spots (first time ever?), his fastball had some major tail action on it, his slider was basically unhittable, and he was even using his change-up effectively.  He was perfect through six and didn't allow a hit until the 8th, which was almost inevitable after the Twins kept him on the bench for nearly a half-hour by battering a couple Texas pitchers for five runs in the bottom of the seventh in that rare occasion when you actually want your team to hurry up and get out.  You could tell his rhythm was broken after that (that's on him, of course, you need to be able to adjust to that) but altogether his performance was nothing short of dominant.  This version of Liriano is an ace, a game-changer, a slump stopper, and a potential playoff killer.  It's just too bad we only see this version once a month or so. 

2.  Ben Revere.  Snacks already claimed him as his new favorite player so I won't step on any toes, but man I really like Revere right now.  He's not perfect or anything - he doesn't walk enough to be an elite leadoff guy, he has no power at all, and his arm would be better suited to playing second base - but what he does have is energy, speed, great center field instincts, and he's giving the team what they need - a jolt of energy.  Infield hits, bunt hits, reaching base on a wild pitch after striking out, stealing bases, he's just really fun to watch.  Now, I know this schtick will get old unless he learns to walk, learns to have a little power, or can hit .330, but for now you can put me in the "big fan" camp, and I think he has far more potential than Gomez.  I don't know that he'll ever develop much power, but his plate discipline says he should learn to walk and he did hit over .300 at every minor league level, so I'm encouraged.  Side note - I was going to sponsor his baseball-reference.com page, but some jackhole beat me to it. 

3.  Dallas Mavericks.  It's tempting to give most of the credit for the big finals win to Dirk, but really there are a bunch of guys who carried this team at times.  Terry had a monster game in the clinched and was their whole offense in the first half, Kidd was hitting his shots and running the offense as only an old man can, and Tyson Chandler had the kind of finals that makes guys millions, if only he was a free agent.  Hell, even Deshawn Stevenson made a difference, both with his defense on baby soft Lebron and his 3 big 3-pointers in the first half tonight.  I hate manufactured crap like "this is what happens when a real 'team' takes on 'superstars"", but for this series at least it was the truth.  Miami had no answer for the fluid way Dallas played together and thank god.  On a happiness scale I'm not sure if I'm happier that Dirk won or Lebron lost, but they both rank way up there.

4.  Mike Leake.  Welcome back, Mr. hippie surfer shoplifter, welcome back indeed.  He had an insane rookie year that saw him skip the minor leagues entirely and get off to an absolutely blistering start (5-0, 2.22 ERA through early June), but since then things have been very rocky.  He ended up burning out last year and was shut down in late August after he put up an ERA of almost six and a half in his next 10 starts and a disastrous move to the bullpen.  This year has been rough as well with an injury, the whole shoplifting thing, his first ever minor league action, and a move to the bullpen, but things might be coming around now.  Back-to-back 8 inning efforts with just two total runs allowed and and 11-to-2 strikeout to walk ratio this week.  Love this guy, love everything about him, and very glad to see him back to makin' hitters look like fools, as well as seeing him back on our fantasy team.

5.  Mike Moustakas.  Yet another one of Kansas City's stud prospect, third baseman Mike Moustakas made his debut this past week and .  Eric Hosmer looks like the real deal and Alcides Escobar is their SS of the future who is valuable even if his hitting doesn't come around, so they've got 3/4 of the infield covered.  Now, Moustakas and Hosmer were generally ranked #1 and #2 in their system, so not everyone else has their pedigree, but it's notable that they have catcher covered (Wil Myers, #8 prospect in all of baseball by Keith Law) so if they can just find a few competent outfielders (I think Jarrod Dyson has a future similar to Escobar, but in CF) their future lineup should be pretty well set.  The biggest question will be enough pitching will develop to make them competitive, but the minors are pretty heavily laden with big-time pitching prospects (including Danny Duffy, Jeremy Jeffress, Aaron Crow, and Tim Collins who are already up).  Things better come together, because I have a $100 bet with Snacks that the Royals will win the AL Central before 2015, and god knows I can't afford to lose that kind of money.  I would hate to have to choose between booze and feeding my kids.  I think we all know which way that one is going to go.


WHO SUCKED

1.  Colby Lewis.  You remember good ole Colby, the dude who the Twins chased on Saturday after just more than an inning?  You might remember him as the guy who gave up two hits each to Alexi Casilla and Delmon Young despite pitching just one and third innings.  Not to mention giving up a sick number of hits/runs in between and getting run early with a final line of 1.1ip/7h/6er.  Ouch.  But what you might not know is that he also pitched against the Tigers earlier this week and might actually have pitched worse.  Line:  3.1 ip/10 hits/9er/4 hr.  Yes, that's nine earned runs and 4 homers allowed - two of which were to that piece of crap Brennan Boesch.  So, in case your math skills are bad or you are a girl, that's 15 earned runs allowed in one week and that includes a game against the Twins triple A lineup.  In all seriousness I really hope Mr. Lewis has been saving most of his money, because that paycheck might be drying up pretty quick here.  Actually what do I care?  Guy sucks.  Get a real job, hippie!

2.  Tim Lincecum.  Since he's in the NL you probably have no idea he's been brutal. In fact, even if you're paying attention he doesn't look that bad - 3.41 ERA and 1.19 WHIP - but this week he's been completely brutal.  He had two starts this week and in the longer outing he lasted five innings, and that was against the epically shitty Nationals.  The Reds are at least good, but when you're Lincecum you just don't give up 7 hits and 7 runs in 4 innings to anybody - and he only struck out one guy.  Very bad if you're a big fan of diminutive whirling dervish floppy haired pot-smoking hippy pitchers - or Wiley Wiggins.  The good news is nerd stats (I'll spare you) don't point to anything that's significantly different that normal so this is more likely a blip on the radar rather than indicative of a Soria-style breakdown or anything, but god, getting ripped by the Nats is just freaking embarrassing.  It'd be like getting busted by O'Bannion. 

3.  Oakland Athletics.  Wow are these guys god damn awful.  Look at that lineup and count the actual major league hitters.  I see David DeJesus and Josh Willingham, both who would be good fourth outfielders for a team, and Coco Crisp who is a quality leadoff hitter.  That's it.  Their infield has to be the worst collection in the league - other contenders like Seattle and San Diego at least have one quality bat (Justin Smoak and Chase Headley), but Oakland has nothing.  Throw in the injuries to starters Dallas Braden, Brett Anderson, Tyson Ross, and Brandon McCarthy and you can see why they've won just one of their last 14.   Of note:  they still have a better record than the Twins.  FML.

4.  Ryan Howard.  No, not the mid-level executive from a mid-tier paper company in Pennsylvania who was addicted to cocaine and then committed fraud, I'm talking about the fat first baseman for the Phillies.  You know, the guy who was inexplicably given a 5-year $125 million contract THAT DOESN'T EVEN START UNTIL NEXT SEASON despite the fact that his body type (fat to mostly fat) and playing style (high strikeout power hitter) mean that, at best, he's going to be a blacker Matt Stairs by the end of that contract.  And this week was a preview, because he had three hits all week (not counting today where he had three hits and three rbi which kind of negates this point but I already typed all those words before I looked it up and saw he had a good day today).  Any way the point is that Ryan Howard is fat and that was a stupid contract.  Like, Mauer-stupid.

5.  Lebron James.  I almost feel like you could just call out the entire Heat team as sucking, but the difference is that there were games where Bosh played amazingly well (including tonight), Wade pretty much carried the team the entire series, and Lebron was straight up invisible way too often so you have to pick him as the goat.  Not only did he handpick this team to win championships, but he hand picked this fucking team to win the championship.  This shit was orchestrated with one goal in mind and they failed.  And they didn't fail because of Wade (no surprise, the guy was nails in the playoffs and finals) and they didn't fail because of Bosh (surprisingly good this entire finals), they failed because Lebron was unable to carry the team for even small stretches and was about as valuable as that fat kid in Teen Wolf in the fourth quarter.  God there is just an amazing psychology paper waiting to be written on Lebron.  If I wasn't so dumb I would totally write it.  That's not true.  I'm too lazy.  I just want to go fishing.  


Lastly, just to brighten your week, here are Wonderbaby^TM's mad baseball skills on full display:

Where for art thou, Deolis Guerra?

Yes, I know we are in the heart of the Big Ten season, but if I write too many times consecutively about Gopher basketball I start to have heart palpitations mixed with a deep depression, and since I already took every pill in the house (uppers, downers, hallucinagins, antidepressants and sexual performance enhancers all in play) after the Indiana loss, my only possible solace here is to turn to Twins talk.  Since it's not even February yet, optimism can reign supreme.  Maybe.  Until June, at least.

Keith Law of ESPN.com put out his list of the top 100 prospects in baseball, and I'm going to go ahead and give a few comments about those players of which I am knowledgeable enough to speak, and a few that I'm probably not.  Full list is at that link right there above.  If you still have your little heart set on reading about the Gophers, the preview of the Ohio State game is in the post directly below this one.  [SPOILER:  I bet they lose.].

The interesting people, in reverse order:

 97.  Miguel Sano, SS, Twins.  You remember this guy, he's the supposed 16 year old from the Dominican the Twins signed this summer when they shockingly opened up the wallet.  He signed too late last year so there really isn't any way to evaluate him against professional pitching, but he's supposed to have all the tools.  He projects to end up becoming a 3b, which means he'll probably be ready to take over just as Danny Valencia is leaving to sign a 7-year, $140-million contract with the Yankees.


91.  Jose Iglesias, SS, Red Sox.  I mostly just included him because being given that name must have sucked something fierce.  Also, Law says he could end up as an "Adam Everett" at worst.  Dude, that's pretty bad.  I wouldn't be using that as a positive argument.

90.  Jake Arrieta, SP, Orioles.  He finished last year in triple-A and is already 23, so there's a good chance he'll be in the bigs this year.  The Orioles are actually quietly starting to move back in the right direction after many, many, many years of spending stupidly and making really dumb decisions.  They have a nice lineup this year, and a good number of young arms.  If everything works out, they might end up challenging for second in the division sometime in the next ten years.

89.  Kyle Gibson, SP, Twins.  Above average command and control, three good pitches, a lot of groundballs, and a 93 mph heater - sounds like a prototypical Twins pitcher, except this one was projected to be the 10-12th pick in the draft.  The Twins stole him at 22 due to a stress fracture in his arm, but all indications are he's back to normal.  And hopefully not like the Liriano back-to-normal, but a real back-to-normal.

87.  Aaron Crow, SP, Royals.  Could be a Greinke-level monster once he gets to the bigs.  I'm hoping the Royals do something really stupid and end up trading him for like, Alfonso Soriano or something just to get him out of the Twins' division.

73.  Fernando Martinez, OF, Mets.  I think this guy has been on the list for about five years now, but has yet to make any real progress due to constant injuries.  He was the top prospect in the Mets system at one point, but, as Phil Humber, Carlos Gomez, Deolis Guerra, and Kevin Mulvey have shown us, that doesn't necessarily mean squat.

72.  Mike Leake, SP, Reds.  I don't think this is Kelly's dad, since they spell their last name's differently and he'd be far too old at this point.

70.  Austin Jackson, OF, Yankees.  If this name rings a bell it's probably because at one point his name was being bandied about in the Johan discussion all those many years ago, when we were still optimistic that we would end up getting more than two seasons of great center field defense and a whole bunch of flailing about at the plate out of the best pitcher of the 00s.  Well, now he's in the Tigers' system, coming over for Curtis Granderson.  At 23 and with five years in the minors, it's probably now or never.

58.  Tyler Flowers, C, White Sox.  Coming soon to a Twins' game near you.  He might start the year in the minors, but he'll be in the majors at some point and might even end up starting by the end of the year.  His last two seasons he's OPSed .939 and .921 at AAA and A+ ball, although his defense is subpar at this point.

57.  Jose Tabata, OF, Pirates.  This is the main guy the Pirates picked up in the Damaso Marte/Xavier Nady trade with the Yankees, so it would be pretty sweet if he ends up being good.  Plus, I'm still rooting for the Pirates.  I think they're starting to do some smart things, and this would be a big step in the right direction - and it's starting get late on his clock, so a good year this year would be a nice start.

54.  Alcides Escobar, SS, Brewers.  This is why they traded J.J. Hardy.  He should be in the bigs this year, so we'll see if that works out for them.  Well, it pretty much already will when Carlos Gomez turns into the next Tim Raines, but we'll see how the SS part works out.

52.  Hank Conger, C, Angels.  Just wanted to point out that this guy's name is Hank and he's Asian.  That's weird.

42.  Wilson Ramos, C, Twins.  There's no doubt this guy can hit a ton and is a very good catcher as well, as long as he can stay healthy.  If the Twins end up not signing Mauer, he's the catcher of the future.  If they do, he's going to be a very valuable chip - the kind that could be used to grab some valuable help for a pennant race at the trade deadline.  I'm just kidding of course, you know they'll never end up trading him, regardless of what kind of help is available that they would need.

40.  Kyle Drabek, SP, Blue Jays.  Maybe the key to the Halladay/Lee deal, Drabek has a chance to end up as a top-end pitcher if he can recover all the way from Tommy John surgery.  He returned last year and had a very good showing at A and AA ball, so things look good for the kid. 


33.  Chris Carter, 1B, Athletics.  I say first baseman, but it's pretty clear this guy is really more of a DH.  There's no doubt he can hit, though.  He hit 25 home runs in the minors in 2007, 39 in 2008, and 28 in 2009 (while hitting .329/.422/.570).  I would anticipate him starting at AAA, but we should see him in the majors this year - probably taking Jesse Crain deep.

30.  Josh Vitters, 3B, Cubs.  I just get a kick out of this guy because he just hates to walk.  Hates it.  In his minor-league career he's just 26 times in 830 pro plate appearances.  For reference, that's the same amount of walks Carlos Gomez had in his first year with the Twins, but Gomez had 200 less plate appearances, and nine fewer than Delmon Young had, again in about 200 less at bats.  I mean, this guy might very well be insane.

28.  Madison Bumgarner, SP, Giants.  Was a top-5 or top-10 prospect on pretty much everybody's list at the beginning of last year, but has fallen a bit out of favor due to a drop in velocity.  Of course, he looked great in his 10 major-league innings last year, posting a 1.80 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP with a nice 9.0 K/9 ratio.  Velocity drop or no, those are really impressive numbers for a 19-year old major leaguer.  I'm stunned that he's as low as 28th.  Stupifyed, really.  Like a spell from Ginny Weasley's wand.

25.  Zack Britton, SP, Orioles.  Just another young O's pitcher like I was talking about before, although he's probably not quite major-league ready just yet.  

22.  Tyler Matzek, SP, Rockies.  I just wanted to mention him here because he's the top prospect in the Rockies' system and the Rocks are my National League team.  He's brand spanking new, just picked last year right out of high school, so we have no data to look at, but he's apparently already got four pretty good pitches.  Could be the next Jason Marquis - stay tuned.

19.  Aaron Hicks, OF, Twins.  I feel encouraged by having a Twin in the top 20, even if the team's overall farm system is only ranked 13th overall.  Basically the scouting report on this kid is that he's a true five-tool prospect, who, although he has a ways to go to completely realize those tools, has as much potential as anybody, especially for a 19-year old.  He's everything we wanted Carlos Gomez to be.

16.  Aroldis Chapman, SP, Reds.  I smell bust.  Way to blow your load on an absolute question mark, Cincinnati.  Seriously, you outbid the Yankees for a Cuban.  I have a feeling this was kind of like an auction for something you don't really want, but you're sure somebody else wants and you want to keep bidding them up, trying to make them pay more.  Then they stop bidding when you're winning, and you're like "oh shit."

17 & 15.  Jeremy Hellickson and Wade Davis, SPs, Rays.  Just in case you thought the Rays didn't have enough young, potential superstars.  Davis cracked the majors last year and looked good in his six starts and should start the year as part of the Rays' rotation, and Hellickson might join him there after having a very good year in AAA in 2009.


13.  Neftali Perez, SP, Rangers.  The first of three Rangers in the top 13 on this list, and that doesn't even count Elvis Andrus, last season's runner-up for AL Rookie-of-the-Year.  Or Nelson Cruz, who made the all-star team in hi second season.  Or Chris Davis, who took a step back last year but hit 17 homers in 317 PAs as a rookie two years ago.  Or their bunch of young pitching prospects.  How did the Rangers suddenly end up looking so promising?
  
11.  Brian Matusz, SP, Orioles.  Yet another Oriole pitcher.  Should be in the rotation from the get-go this season.

9.  Justin Smoak, 1B, Rangers.  Another Ranger.  Should be a better fielding, switch-hitting Billy Butler with more power.  I'm already scared.

8.  Dustin Ackley, OF/1B, Mariners.  The second-pick in last year's draft, Ackley is the rare position player who is returning from Tommy John surgery - thus the move from the OF to 1B.  The Mariners have discussed making him a 2B, which with his combination of hitting for average/hitting for power/plate discipline, would have a very good chance of making him a perennial all-star.

7.  Martin Perez, SP, Rangers.  The last of the Rangers.  I've never even heard of this guy, but I thought I should put him in here since I'm all up on Texas's nuts and everything.

4.  Buster Posey, C, Giants.  That's either the best name I've ever heard, or the worst name I've ever heard.

3.  Carlos Santana, C, Indians.  You got the kinda lovin' that can be so smooth, yeah, give me heart, make it real, or else forget about it.  (obvious, but I bet you laughed anyway.  or smiled at least.  I bet you smiled.  Come on.  It was funnier than Leno.  Admit that much you tough-love son of a bitch).

2.  Stephen Strasburg, SP, Nationals.  Putting Strasburg second reeks of either contrarianism or an overreaction to his mediocre showing in fall ball.  Either way, there's little doubt he's going to be a star.  When your downside is as a #2 starter, you know you've got potential.  Of course, there's always the ballad of Brien Taylor, if you need a reminder of how potential doens't always = success.

1.  Jason Heyward, OF, Braves.  I hadn't heard of this dude before, which embarrasses me somewhat, but he ripped the crap out of AA pitching last year, and had a lot of success in a very short AAA stint to close the year.  Law says he'll be a star, so I guess we should pay some attention here.


There's the list.  There were four notable omissions, or at least there were four names that popped into my head without really thinking about it, so I'll touch on them quickly before I close:

1.  Ben Revere, OF, Twins.  Depending on who you ask, he's either a future star (John Sickels has him #2 in the system), or nothing more than Juan Pierre (Law's concern).  I'm sure you're an idiot who thinks Juan Pierre is good because he's fast and hits right around .300, but that's because you're stupid and I wish I was a GM and you were a GM and then I could trade you Pierre and get way too much for him and you'd feel good about it.

God you're dumb.  Anyway, I've seen his absolute upside is Kenny Lofton, which would be pretty good.  Let's all hope for that, and not run around trying to make out wiht Juan Pierre, ok?

2.  Deolis Guerra, P, Twins.  Sigh.  The last remaining piece of from the trading of Johan.  God I miss him so much.  Instead we have this guy.  He doesn't make Law's top 10 list for the Twins, and he doesn't make Sickels' top 20.  He hasn't posed an ERA under 4.01 in the last three years.  FML.


3.  Tim Alderson, P, Pirates.  Notable because this is who the Giants traded to get Freddy Sanchez.  At one point considered a pretty big-time prospect, it seems Alderson has fallen out of favor, ranking #6 on Law's Pirate list and #5 on Sickels' list - not bad, but not as elite as he once was.  Prospect in free-fall, or underrated?  It's the Pirates, so I'm going to go with the free-fall thing.


4.  Scott Sizemore, 2B, Tigers.  I actually only know of him because when I learned Polanco might be available I started doing some digging into the fan/blog world of the Tigers and found out most fans were just fine with getting rid of Placido because Sizemore (who I assume is related to either Grady or Tom) was waiting in the wings.  He broke his ankle like some kind of girl late in the year last season, but he still ranks #6 on Sickels' list and #5 on Law's of overall Tiger prospects.  Expect to be annoyed by him early and often.

 
So there's your list.  Four Twin prospects can't be bad, especially considering the team is fairly young as is.  The one major criticism I've seen of the Twins' system is that there isn't much there that is ready right now, but it's in decent shape for future years and I have no problem with that.  Of course, if they don't sign Mauer I'll probably just kill myself along with the rest of the state.  They all worship him zombie-like, but I can't fault them because he's really just that good (although most of you cretins worship him for the wrong reasons).  If there is no signing, short of a trade to Texas for Teagarden, Andrus, Smoak, and Perez, I am pretty sure I'm just going give up and move to either New York or Pittsburgh.  At least you know enough to either believe or give up in those states.  I'm sick of these games here.  It's like taking some broad to the drive in, you don't know what you're getting.  I'd rather take the slut or the good-girl, not some middle of road confusing person.  I dont' know if you can tell, but I suspect you can, I've been getting progressively drunker as this post has gone on.  At this point I've already given up and am trying to figure out ways to trade Mauer and Morneau for more prospects.

"Are you guys ready?  We better get going if we're going to stay ahead of the weather."

Twins Draft History

Although the Major League Baseball Amateur Draft is still a couple months away, since my season on Out of the Park Baseball has gotten to that point (and I can't recommend this game strongly enough, plus it's only $19.99 to download) I've been in the draft mindset. Why not take a look at the Twins' draft history? We kind of know it a bit, but nobody pays all that much attention to the MLB draft. I'll take a look at the Twins' first pick and how it is working out, players they missed, and the rest of their picks overall. I won't focus on players missed by looking through the whole thing, there's like 50 rounds. We've heard about Piazza going in round 62, Mark Buehrle in round 38, and Roy Oswalt in round 23, but that would take all day to look it. Instead I'll focus on the picks right around the Twins, and see who was missed.

2007: Twins take Ben Revere, High School CF, 28th overall (pictured). Although he was considered a cost-saving pick by many, Revere looked good in Rookie ball last season, as mentioned below and is the Twins' third best prospect according to Baseball Prospectus. The big miss here wasn't passing on any name in particular that stands out, but that Rick Porcello, considered by many to be the best high school right hander to enter the draft in years, was nabbed by Detroit one pick before the Twins'. He was good enough to make his debut in High A ball this season, his first as a pro after a year at prep school, and has posted a 0.93 WHIP and 2.18 ERA in five starts. I haven't heard of any of the Twins' other picks from 2007, but a couple who show promise are CF Andrew Schmiesing (.321 BA/.421 OBP in Rookie ball last year) and SP Daniel Berlind (1.93 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 56 innings).

2006: Twins take Chris Parmelee, High School RF, 20th overall. After playing well in rookie ball is first year, Parmelee has struggled a bit in A ball over parts of the past three seasons. Last year was his first full year in A, and he hit just .239 and has followed that up with a .227 so far this season. There are encouraging signs, however. He gets on base (OBPs of .313 and .366) and can slug (.414 and .561). Despite the low average, the OPS is there, .927 this year, so he should come around. Glaring mistakes in this draft include passing on both Ian Kennedy and Joba Chamberlain. I'm assuming since those two were both college pitchers, this was once again a cost saving draft pick. If that's the case, then the better pick would have been SS Adrian Cardenas, another high school player who is ranked the 3rd best prospect in the Phillies system, whereas Parmelee isn't in the top 11 for the Twins. The Twins were able to grab excellent pitching prospects Tyler Robertson in the third, and Jeff Manship in the 14th.

2005: Twins take Matt Garza, pitcher from Fresno State, 25th overall. We all know about Garza, since he made the bigs, basically rocketing through the minors. That success hasn't quite translated to the majors as of yet, and he's now laid up with an injury for the Rays. Garza's evaluation will be forever tied to Delmon Young because of the trade, so let's just say for now it looks like Garza can't hit. It's hard to say if they made any mistakes here with the pick, because Garza still has the ability to end up being the best pitcher out of this draft. One name that glaringly stands out as a guy the Twins passed on is pitcher Clay Buchholz in the Red Sox system, taken by them at #42. You know, the guy who already has a no-hitter in the majors. The rest of the Twins' draft looks promising, with P Kevin Slowey in the second and P Brian Duensing in the third looking like top prospect types, and SS Andrew Thompson in the second, 1B Erik Lis in the ninth, and P Brian Kirwan in the 11th looking like decent picks.

2004: The Twins had five first round picks this year, taking SS Trevor Plouffe at 20, P Glen Perkins at 22, P Steve Waldrop at 25, P Matthew Fox at 35, and P Jay Rainville at 39. Plouffe I covered below, so I'll skip him. Perkins has been up and down in the bigs, so you probably know who he is. None of Waldrop, Fox, or Rainville makes the Twins top 10 list, Rainville was solid in A ball the past two years, but has been getting ripped around after being promoted to AA for this season. Fox has been an ok middle reliever in rookie and A ball so far in his career, and Waldrop has been ok as a starter, moving up the system at a decent pace to land in AA ball and the end of last year. Overall, for five first round picks, this is a pretty disappointing group, especially when some of the guys they passed on include the Yankees' Phil Hughes, Oakland's Huston Street, the Brewers' Yovani Gallardo, and Boston's Dustin Pedroia. The Twins did pick up some good later picks, with P Anthony Swarzak in the 2nd, P Eduardo Morlan (since traded) in the third, and C Javier Sanchez in the 14th, but overall this draft was a failure, at least at this point.

2003: Twins take high school third baseman Matt Moses at #21 overall. Moses is beginning his sixth season in the minor leagues this year, and even worse is starting in double-A after getting a shot at Triple-A late last season. He doesn't walk much and doesn't hit for much power, and has posted a .258/.311/.388 in his minor league career. I'm pretty much calling him a bust at this point. Unfortunately, Moses was taken over guys like Chad Billingsley, Eric Duncan, Jarrod Saltamacchia, and Adam Jones. Oof. This was overall a nightmare of a draft, as none of the guys taken have spent so much as a minute on the Twins' major league roster, and it looks like none of them ever will.

2002: Twins take high school outfielder Denard Span at number 20 in the first round. We finally got to see Span this year, and he looks like he might end up being a good pinch runner. He's an ok hitter, with a decent OBP, but doesn't have and will never had much power. Unlike, say, Jeff Francouer who was taken by the Braves four picks later and has already put up major league seasons with 29 and 19 homeruns or Cincy's Joey Votto, who hit all through the minors and is putting up a very nice rookie year so far, taken 24 picks later. If you're curious about pitching passed up, Joe Blanton and Matt Cain were taken within five picks of Span. The rest of this drafted netted Jesse Crain and Pat Neshek, as well as a possible contributor down the line in the 49th round of Brock Peterson at third base. Peterson is still just in AA, but has posted an OPS of .800+ at pretty much every stop.

That leads us to 2001, which was the Joe Mauer draft and ends this post on a positive note, which I need because the rest of this draft review is making me a little sick.