Monday Musings

 Are you in the mood to read 1,537 words?  Actually more now since I'm writing this introduction?  You are?  Oh good.  Because here they come. 

-  We've written about the Span trade, the Revere trade, and the Correia signing here already so I suppose I should put something to figurative paper about the Mike Pelfrey signing but I am struggling so hard to care. 

This adequately expresses my feelings.

I guess I'm in favor simply because it's mirroring what my strategy would be with this team: trade everyone with value, get as many prospects as you can, fill holes for this year with short, cheap contracts, and plan for 2014.  Signing Correia and Pelfrey does that, although giving Correia a second year is pretty mind-boggling.  Pelfrey should be a better pitcher than Correia (not saying much), but he's coming off Tommy John surgery so your mileage may vary.

Pelfrey is a former first round pick who has been thoroughly mediocre in his career (similarity scores at his age - 29 - put him like a Carl Pavano or Jake Westbrook at that age: ok, but not necessarily good.  A one year, $4 million dollar contract is a pretty good deal for him, especially because he's coming off Tommy John surgery which these days seems to make players better.  If he can get back to his mediocre ways or even slightly better - put up like a high 3s/low 4s ERA - he could end up being a good piece to trade at the deadline.  I'm realizing now I'm pretty obsessed with trading anything and everything of value and throwing in the towel this year.  And it's December.  Gonna be a fun season.  I do like the Rule 5 Ryan Pressly pick-up though.  Probably I could write about that and actually sound positive, but I'm not going to.  Although I will mention that I saw on MLB.com where they list each team's top 20 prospects that Pressly slots in at #17, so that's probably good, right?

-  What in the world is going on with the value of top prospects these days?  The Phillies send their #1 prospect to the Twins for Ben Revere.  The Royals send their top prospect (and #3 in all of baseball) away for James Shields, while the D-Backs ship out their #1 (and #5 overall) for good fielding no hitting shortstop prospect and a middle reliever.  Now the Jays are trading their #1 (#11 overall) and #3 (#83) for R.A. Dickey who, rumor has it, is 38.  It's starting to look like teams are looking more or more for when they have their "window" and just going for it, and since it's not just one team but multiple this may be the new trend.  The Phillies will have Revere for a while and the D-Backs got back a guy they hope is their SS for many years, but both the Royals and Jays are clearly going for it now, acquiring players who won't be on the team in 3 years.

The famous Doyle Alexander for John Smoltz trade worked out well for both team's and I'm guessing both organizations would do it again if they traveled back in time, but generally there's a pretty clear winner and loser in these types of deals.  If the Jays and Royals can get back to the playoffs for the first time in 20+ years even once you can probably say they made the right move, if not they payed an awfully steep price for the same results they'd have gotten anyway, but with a dash of disappointment mixed in.  That is, of course, assuming the prospects work out which is pretty much a given since they always do.

- Speaking of baseball transactions the one time that isn't doing anything that baffles me is the Baltimore Orioles.  Yeah, there was an awfully lot of luck on their side to make the playoffs, but they made them and clearly needed to make some upgrades if they want to get back, but they aren't doing much of anything.  So far their biggest moves are claiming Alexei Casilla, trading Robert Andino to Seattle for Trayvon Robinson (note:  I have no idea who this is), and re-signing Lew Ford to a minor league deal.  They need a corner OFer, a 1B after letting Mark Reynolds walk, a second baseman since Brian Roberts is always hurt and I'm pretty sure Casilla isn't the answer, and starting pitching help because Chen/Hammel/Gonzalez/Tillman/Britton is not going to get you into the playoffs again.  Also I just noticed that their designated hitter right now is Wilson Betemit - I mean these guys need some help.

I have no idea why they aren't after Swisher or LaRoche, not to mention Edwin Jackson or trying to at least work a trade with somebody like the Dodgers who have too many pitchers or figuring out something at 2b, even if it's just signing someone shitty like Kelly Johnson (he's better than Casilla).  Then again who knows, maybe they're smarter than me and waiting for the market to settle a bit and going after bargains.  They have plenty of young arms that could get decent pieces back to plug into the roster, but they've barely even been mentioned in rumors as far as doing anything that a whole bunch of waiver claims and minor league deals and getting rebuffed by Nate freaking Schierholz.  I don't get it.  If Baltimore's front office thinks they're in a place to compete again this year they're in for a big ole face slap.  Prime candidate to take the UNDER on wins once those wagers are released.

-  You know how two of our reader's (Loretta08 from Sippin' on Purple and Bear) hate hate hate Kevin O'Neill and consider him bar none the worst coach in NCAAB?  I agree he's pretty awful, but without question Bruce Weber is the worst.  The dude did nothing but underachieve at Illinois (after finishing national runner-up with Bill Self's players), including famously refusing to recruit a point guard instead content to force shooting guards to play out of position (first Demetri McCamey, then Brandon Paul) with mostly disastrous results and now he's screwing up Kansas State as well.  The Wildcats made the second round of the NCAA Tournament last year under Frank Martin and have basically the same team back.  They were ranked 37th in the AP Preseason Poll and 30th in the ESPN poll, while the Big 12 coaches picked them to finish 5th in the conference and I ranked them as the 33rd best team in the country.   So decent.

Now I readily admit there's nothing particularly damning here at 7-2.  Their only two losses are to Michigan and Gonzaga (and Gonzaga just killed them), but looking deeper it's just empty.  They barely beat a bad Delaware team and a horrible George Washington team, and two of their wins are over a non-D1 team and USC Upstate who is basically a non-D1 team.  They still might end up in the race for an NCAA bid because don't forget these are Frank Martin's players, but the end for this program is on the horizon.  Mark my words, in 2-3 years this program will be back in the depths of anonymity because BRUCE WEBER IS AWFUL.  Truth.

 

She hates Bruce Weber too I would assume.

-  It feels a bit weird writing all these words and not talking about the Gophers since I'm supposed to be a Gopher blog, but I live-blogged the last game so every thought I had that night (and many I didn't) has already been written.  Instead, real quick, I wanted to take a look and compare this year's Gopher team to the one from 1996-1997 which made the Final Four (yes, they did).

Both teams were coming off NIT seasons with minimal personnel losses from the prior year (1996 team lost only David Grim) and nothing in the way of impact freshmen coming in (that was the Loge/Sanden/Archambeau class - thanks dick).  Both had success in an early season tournament.  Both came into Big Ten play with just 1 loss (1996 loss was at Alabama, a team that would fail to make either the NIT or NCAA Tournament).  That team was ranked in the top 10 for the first time following the January 11th game against Michigan.  That year's Big Ten was much weaker than this year's version, with only Indiana (x2), Michigan (x2), and Illinois ranked at the time the Gophers played them and none ranked higher than 15th.  The Gophers were clearly the class of the league in 1996 as shown by winning the conference with a 16-2 record.  This year's team is going to be in a much tougher conference.  I remember thinking that team was special after the win @ Indiana, and I'm already thinking this year's team is special.  Seriously, I can barely handle waiting for that New Year's Eve day game.  We're going to learn so much.

-  Since I know you're dying for an update I made the semi-finals in both my important Pretend Football leagues and lost both, despite having the highest scoring team in both leagues this year, by scoring the fewest points either team put up all year thanks to having Ray Rice, Demaryious Thomas, and Hakeem Nicks in both leagues.  I hate that stupid fake sport.  I quit.

Tuesday's Talkings (mostly nba draft stuff)

Thanks to stupid softball I won't be able to watch the draft live (although I am tivo'ing with a hope for a live blog up by Monday) so I was going to do a mock draft.  Then I got about 7 picks into it and got really bored.  Instead of a whole mock, here are some things to watch for:

-  How the Wolves screw up the #2 pick in a 2-player draft.  Trade for Roy Hibbert?  Trade with Kevin Love for Pau Gasol?  Trade for Marcin Gortat?  Draft some foreign player?  Stay tuned, it's the most intriguing part of the draft.

-  Utah to trade the #3 pick.  This is a two player draft and the Jazz apparently can't come to a consensus on a player, so it makes sense for them to move backwards.  If they don't, look for them to take Kanter.

-  If they take Kanter, Toronto will start salivating at getting Knight at #5 since their current starting PG is Jose freaking Calderon.  I would also expect Cleveland to get a ton of calls from teams looking to get that #4 pick, knowing the Cavs won't take Knight when they just took Irving.   They aren't the T-Wolves for god's sake.

-  How far with Jonas Valanciunas slip?  I won't pretend to know anything about him, but he's supposed to be the best Euro this year (which, let's be honest, is a little like being the most honorable Lannister - or the least douchiest Blue Devil if you prefer your analogies less nerdy).  But Chad Ford has been reporting lately that there are some issues with his buyout from commiesylvania which may cause him to slip.  Personally I'm betting, if the pick isn't traded, that the Cavs take him in kind of a "we already have our sure thing in Irving, let's go for the home run" mode.  A move I'd applaud if I gave a crap about Cleveland.

-  Steals:  Kemba Walker (anybody who can carry a team the way he did can adjust his game to make it in the NBA), Tristan Thompson (already can rebound and play defense at an NBA level), Marshon Brooks (one of the best scorers in the draft), Kenneth Faried (will make an impact immediately), Tobias Harris (best chance at becoming an all-star someday out of the late 1st round types), and Trey Thompkins (just needs polish).

-  Busts:  Kawhi Leonard (way too tweenery, not enough skill to overcome it), Jan Vesesly (girls name), Jimmer Fredette (future And 1 all-star), Iman Shumpert (completely boggled that he's a mid-first round pick, basically a slower T.J. Ford), Nikola Vucevic (yes, let's take the slow, white, 7-footer - that always works out), and Demetri McCamey (wherever he's taken in the NBDL draft it will be too soon).

- My biggest hope for the Wolves - other than they just take Williams at #2 - is that they find a way to trade the #20 pick, either for a future #1, a veteran and not terrible C or SG, or both.  The one team I've seen mentioned a couple of times as looking for a pick in the 20s is the Cavaliers, and although they're pretty barren when it comes to SGs they do have a few big men who are probably expendable since they have a bunch of young guys they probably want to give an extensive tryout to - Antawn Jamison (yuck) and Anderson Varejao (I can see this).  I feel like Varejao's constantly running motor, fundamental hustle, and excellent defense would fit on this team very well, and on a team as young as the Wolves getting a guy like him might be worth the #20 pick since they don't really have room for any more mediocre young dudes.  I don't know how the whole salary thing works and I have no idea if the Cavs would have any interest in trading him, but I'd be down.  Assuming he's not hurt or something.  I don't pay nearly enough attention to the NBA to know everything.

-  Apropos of nothing I'm talking about, but you can never trust a pitcher with a stripper's name, eh Madison Bumgarner?

And a few college hoop notes before I go:

- The early scouting reports and some excellent video shot by gopherhole poster jmag21 are in, and it sounds like Oto Osenieks is going to rank on the white boy scale somewhere between Blake Hoffarber and Dirk Nowitzki.  There's no doubt that jumper is silky smooth and looks to be accurate so far, so even if he never learns to play defense or rebound he'll be pretty close to Blake, and at 6-8, 205 lbs. I'm not exactly expecting him to put on a rebounding clinic, but I'm officially intrigued.  My only real hope is that he isn't just some tall skinny white dork who hangs out around the three point line all day.   I mean, that might be fine during his freshman year, but he needs to progress and get better.  Since that's something Tubby has excelled at since his arrival here I feel good about Oto's chances.

- Speaking of white three-point shooters, Ricky Kreklow is transferring from Missouri.  There was at least some mutual interest there (like between me and your mom) when he was going through the recruiting process the first time.  I don't know if anybody has any interest on either side this time around, but the dude can shoot so I'm interested, and I'd like to go ahead and just throw his name out there so on the off chance he ends up a Gopher I can point out how smart I am.

- Lastly, if you thought it was going to be difficult for the Gophers to sign Tyus Jones things just got more difficult when Jones made the U-16 team as the starting point guard, which vaulted him to #1 PG in his class status, if he wasn't there already.  ESPN already ranks him the #1 PG for 2014 and the #9 recruit overall, and he's got Ohio State, North Carolina, Washington, UCLA, Pitt, and Michigan State after him, amongst others, although let's be honest it doesn't really matter - he can basically write his own ticket anywhere.  So why would he pick the Gophers?  I can't really come up with anything.  The best I can do is loyalty, but I think that really only extends to fans and dogs. 

We can only hope.and wait at this point.  Plus we have a saying around here, "Let Shelbyville handle it."

Game Preview: Minnesota Gophers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini

Must win?  Sort of.  The Gophers are at 5-6 in Big Ten play right now, and need to get to at least 9 wins, meaning they need to go 4-3 to close out.  With strong reservations, let's go ahead and give them the home games against Penn State and Michigan as wins.  That means they need to win two out of home games against Illinois and Michigan State and road games at Iowa, Penn State, and Northwestern.  I have no faith in this team to win any of those road games, and at best I see them taking one.  So although this isn't a MUST WIN game, it's certainly a must win game.

Luckily for the Gophers the Illini are on the skids despite an abundance of talent on a paper which, by the way, is not where the games are played.  They pop up very well according to Ken Pomeroy's metrics where they are the 24th best team in offensive efficiency and the 25th best team in defensive efficiency, which leads to them being ranked as the 15th best team in the country, but they sure aren't playing like it, losing 5 of their last 7 including losses to Northwestern, Indiana, and Penn State.

A lot of their issues can be traced to Demetri McCamey, who may be starting to finally prove what I've been saying for years - he's not a real point guard.  BOB COUSY AWARD FINALIST (L-O-freaking-L) McCamey has seen his play really tail off in those last seven games.  He's shooting just 29% in those games after shooting 51% prior to that this season, and is hitting just 35% from beyond the arc where he was at 54%, and has seen his scoring average drop from 16.2 to 11.3 points per game.  His lack of confidence has affected his aggressiveness, and if you take out a bizarre game against Wisconsin where he shot 21 free throws his FTA per game have dipped from 4 per game to 2 per game, including a 3-game stretch where he got to the line just once.  His assists are down from 7.3 to 5.4 per game (3.9 outside the MSU game) while his turnovers are slightly up, and his steals are down about 50% as well.  Simply put, he's a mess.

Such a mess that Brandon Paul has taken over the point guard duties at times towards the end of games, and he's not even a point guard and averages under 2 assists per game.  He's a superb athlete and will probably end up being a damn good, possibly even great, player, but he's a wing - not a point guard.  Unfortunately there are no other options.

It would be a shame if anybody liked Illinois, because there is a lot of talent here.  Jereme Richmond might be the most talented freshman in the conference not named Sullinger or Armelin, D.J. Richardson is starting to come into his own as a gunner, and Mike Davis and Mike Tisdale form a near perfect tandem inside where Davis does all the dirty grunt work while Tisdale minces around about the perimeter knocking down threes and blocking a shot or two with help side defense.  Even that dork Bill Cole can knock down plenty of three-balls if you don't guard him.

There are a lot of tough matchups here for the Gophers, and although I think Davis and Tisdale will struggle against the Gopher bigs I also think the slashing and scoring abilities of Richmond, Richardson, and Paul are going to give Minnesota fits.  Those three can get to the rim and score mid-range, while Richardson and Paul are perimeter threats and all three are superb athletes.  Seriously, you're going to see a lot of what Rodney Williams could/should/would be when you watch those three on Thursday.

However, as we are learning as Gopher fans, it doesn't matter how good the rest of the team is if nobody can get them the ball in the right spots, so much of the Illini success (or lack thereof) falls on McCamey, the "point guard."  And, frankly, if the Gophers simply keep this one close and make it a wire-to-wire, down to the final possession affair odds are he'll shoot himself in the foot.  Look:

2/5 vs. Northwestern:  misses front-end of the 1-and-1 with :07 left.  Turnover with :20 left.  Illinois loses by 1.
1/27 vs. Indiana:  4 second-half turnovers, 0 second-half points.  Illinois loses by 3.
1/22 vs. Ohio State:  bad pass with 0:16 left, although the turnover was given officially to Mike Tisdale.  Scores 2 points in the final 13 minutes.  Illinois loses by 5
1/11 vs. Penn State:  turnover as time expires, Illini don't get a final shot.  Illinois loses by 2.
12/22 vs. Missouri:  down 2 with 1-minute to play, Illinois gets outscored by 9 and loses by 11.  Can't specifically narrow this one to McCamey, but as the PG he gets most of the blame.
12/18 vs. Illinois-Chicago:  down 2, McCamey turns it over with :02 left to play after missing an open three-pointer with :06 left, Illinois's third miss in the final :15.  Lose by 2.

That is a lot of late game meltdowns for a supposed good team.  And if it reads ugly it's even worse watching it.

Talent-level:  advantage goes to Illinois, and both teams are basically head cases, so this one is very tough to call.  The one big thing I keep coming back to is how are the Gophers going to run an offense with their guards going up against the athletic wings Illinois puts out there?  So I figure we're looking at a narrow Illinois win.  But then I realize that Illinois can't win narrowly, because they'll implode if the game is close, and I don't see an Illini blowout, so.....

Minnesota 67, Illinois 64.

Week in Review - 02.07.11

 Well that was pretty thoroughly depressing.  Ohio State completely controlled that game the whole way and, just in case you were starting to suffer from delusions of grandeur, reminded you that the Gophers are completely mediocre, and nothing more than first round fodder for a good team to take down.  Chip Armelin played his ass off and made me love him even more than I already do, Hoff always plays hard, and Mbakwe is still a beast, but god most of these guys drive me crazy.  Ralph had a good statistical game, but I swear he suffers from some sort of modified form of narcolepsy where instead of falling asleep he just falls into a general malaise, and I think Rodney Williams sometimes forgets he's actually playing a basketball game for real and isn't just messing around with some buddies at the gym.  And for a "tough guy" Iverson has periods where he's as soft as new born baby.

Terrible defense yesterday, too.  How many open layups and dunks did Ohio State get, my god.  And most of those were off of poor decisions or poor effort.  And did they really need to double-down every time anybody got the ball in the post?  Ohio State shoots way too well for that.  And why did Hoff disappear for about 8 minutes of game time in the middle of the second half?  I just don't get how this game unfolded.  Yeah, Ohio State is far more talented and just an overall better team, but the Gophers didn't even bother to put up a fight, and just gave the damn thing away.  I think the upside for this season has now shifted to a first round NCAA win.  Let's hope they can get that done.  And also maybe pick up a point guard from somewhere.

WHO WAS AWESOME

1.  Florida Gators.  Pretty much gotta be the team of the week, and for good reason.  If you can admit that Tennessee and the whole SEC West sucks then there are only three good teams in the conference:  Florida, Vanderbilt, and Kentucky.  And guess who Florida beat this week?  Yep, Vandy and Kentucky.  Both wins came at home, so it isn't an earth-shaking pair of victories, but it's always nice to assert yourself and win at home.  I still think Vandy is probably the best team in this conference, but I think Florida is probably better than Kentucky.  Those two chuckers they play at guard make me awfully nervous, but I think Chandler Parsons, though having the name of a rich gay guy, is the kind of all-around player who can step up and help carry a team in March.  Assuming they aren't completely shot out of the game those two chuckleheads.

2.  Arizona Wildcats.  Guess who's leading the Pac-10?  It's not Washington because they suck, but Arizona was able to take care of business this week, winning both games on their North California swing versus Stanford and Cal.  It's not really any great shakes beating either of those squads, especially when it takes you triple OT to beat the Bears, but they were able to win two road games, something those donkeys from Washington couldn't handle.  Derrick Williams is a really, really good player, but he doesn't have much help which means Zona is heading towards a nice first round exit come March.  But at least that first round exit will happen in the NCAAs, not the NIT.  Probably.

3.  Harrison Barnes.  He started as a well-publicized All-American as a freshman, quickly became the poster child for overhyped, overrated, freshmen who get too much press despite not having accomplished anything yet, but at this point he's finally starting to look like he might be getting it, and the Tar Heels are clicking.  Barnes helped lead UNC to a big road win over Boston College earlier this week, scoring 26 points on 9-16 shooting, and then followed that up with a nice 17 and 10 outing against Florida State - an excellent defensive squad (and those come after a 25-point night against NC State last week).  With him coming around and Kendall Marshall filling in nicely as the starting PG after Larry Drew's departure (he had 16 assists in that FSU game), the Heels are suddenly looking like a threat, and making the Gophers' March resume look better.  

4.  Wisconsin Badgers.  I don't much like to praise anything or anybody from, affiliated with, or who has heard of Wisconsin, but it's time to give credit to the Badgers who, after beating Purdue and then soundly thrashing Michigan State have laid out a pretty convincing case to be the #2 team in the conference.  Looking back at their record their three losses were on the road against a very hot and dangerous Penn State (except this weekend against Michigan, LOL), on a neutral court against a now top-10 Notre Dame, and in Vegas against UNLV - potentially all three NCAA teams, although it looks bleak for the Nittany Lions right now.  And all this with only two players who don't trip over their own feet at least three times a day.  Maybe Bo Ryan really is some kind of wizardly grinch.

5.  Syracuse Orange.  What's a damn good way to stop a four-game losing streak that followed an 18 game winning streak and included a home loss to Seton Hall?  How about going up to Storrs, Connecticut and beating the #7 team in the country in their own place?  Rick Jackson had another double-double (his 16th), but Scoop Jardine and Fab Melo still sucked, and then those two still sucked against South Florida on Saturday, even thought the Orange won.  So even though this entry is about how awesome Syracuse was, I'm also saying that unless Scoop remembers how to shoot or they get anything out of Melo, they aren't really a March threat. 


WHO SUCKED

1.  Washington Huskies.  Way to go, dingleberries.  The easiest road trip in the Pac-10 is to Oregon, where the Ducks and Beavers might be the second and third worst team in the conference (Ariz State is #1, hands down), so what does Warshington do on their trip this week?  Drop both games to fall out of first place, losing by 13 to Oregon State and 5 to the regular Oregon.  Special shout out to Isaiah Thomas, who shot 2-11 with 7 turnovers against State, practically giving the game away single-handedly.  Maybe he's the one who's point-shaving?  With five home games left and just two roadies (the Arizona trip) their still in good shape, if not to overtake Arizona at least to grab an at large bid in March thankfully, because there's not much that's more fun than watching Washington circus ball. 

2.  Michigan State Spartans.  What else is there left to write?  They lost to Iowa by 20, and then got smoked by Wisconsin by almost 30.  I don't know what you call it when you fall further than rock bottom, but whatever it is that's where you'd find Sparty right now.  I can't imagine being a fan of there's right now, must be brutally frustrating.

3.  Demetri McCamey.  You guys know this guy sucks, right?  I know his overall numbers for the season look good, but in his last seven games he's shot 20 for 69, turned it over 22 times, and basically kicked away the game a handful of times.  I can't get over it, and mostly I can't get over how at the end of the Indiana game they used Brandon Paul to run their offense instead of their "point" guard.  I am going to be everything I own against them in March.

4.  Baylor Bears.  Seriously?  I mean seriously?  An elite 8 team last year that brought in one of the best freshmen in the country, and you can't even beat Oklahoma or manage a better than .500 record in the Big 12, which has like, 3 good teams?  Iowa State's only conference victory is over Baylor, and they haven't beaten anybody with a pulse this entire year, generally preferring to not even compete.  Damn it, this team was set up for a very successful season.  They only player they lost was Tweety Carter, and he can't mean anything since the only person nicknamed Tweety who every mattered at all was this chick from my high school who got her nipple pierced and then let me see it.  Just so frustrating.  I thought getting them at 30-1 to win the whole thing was a steal.  Turns out, 30-1 to make the tournament at all might have been poor odds.  And yes I know they helped themselves out with a nice win over A&M on Saturday, but I already wrote all that so it stays.

5.  Texas A&M Aggies.  Speaking of A&M, they did a hell of a job of making sure nobody would make the mistake of thinking they were an elite team ever again.  They were ranked 10th before losing at Nebraska last week, but had a couple of big home games this week that could have helped to cancel that one out.  First they had a huge chance to make a statement with a home game against #3 Texas, but apparently couldn't get up for their hated rival and got blown out 69-49, helped out by their stud Khris Middleton going 0-9 from the floor.  Then they followed that up by losing, again at home, to the basically worthless Baylor Bears.  Just an ugly week, and now they go on the road to Texas Tech and Colorado, games they should win, but then again this could be the beginning of their shame spiral.  Not too dissimilar to the Gophers actually.


Pretty good little Super Bowl, too.  Even though I hate Wisconsin and everything in it, this version of the Packers is easily the least offensive I can ever remember, so their win doesn't kill me inside like it did last time they won.  The only Packer I really hate now is A.J. Hawk, who completely sucks at football but saw how good Clay Matthews is and decided to copy his girlie hair so instead of pointing out how bad he was, maybe people who start referring to them as a tandem and Matthews could save his career.  And it worked.  Way to go, girl.

No, it didn't bug me that they won, and it was a pretty good and entertaining game that I made a little money on (for the second year in a row I lost my game bet but more than made up for it on props - Orange Gatorade, baby!), so I'm pretty satisfied with that part.  The overall production though?  Oof.  The halftime show was completely brutal and other than the Darth Vader commercial overall they were pretty lame, but the worst part of the night was by far how this:

has somehow morphed into Cyndi Lauper.  Seriously, her transition from dream girl to no thank you is nearly complete.  Won't someone step in to prevent this national tragedy?

Week in Review 1.31.2011

 Can somebody please explain to me what is going in college basketball this year?  Michigan State, a final four team last year that lost nothing more than Raymar Morgan and replaced him with more talent, is in danger of missing the NCAA Tournament and lost to Michigan for the first time in 23 years, and at home.  Which was Michigan's first road win all year.   Syracuse, who started the season at 18-0, has now lost four straight, which included losses to two other top 10 teams in Pitt and Villanova.  Teams who both lost this week - Villanova twice.  Duke, who looked nearly unstoppable most of the year, lost to St. Johns, the same team that lost to both St. Bonaventure and Fordham.  BYU gave San Diego State it's first loss on the year, and then turned around and got beat by New Mexico, Texas A&M lost to lowly Nebraska, and UCONN completely blew a home game they had in hand against Louisville.  Two of the top five, 3 of the top 10, and 5 of the top 15 teams in the preseason poll aren't even ranked right now.  It's insane.  I know it's great for a fun season and an even better NCAA Tournament, but it's been hell on my bank account so let's just knock this crap off.


WHO WAS AWESOME

1.  St. Johns Red Storm.   If ever a team could have used a win like this it's St. Johns, and beating Duke by 15 is an awfully nice chip to have in your pocket when March rolls around.  They're in good shape RPI-wise thanks to a very tough strength of schedule, and a 4-5 Big East is probably ok, but this game gives them a huge marquee win and stops a three-game skid, not to mention the shot of confidence they probably get considering they just completely blew the doors off the Blue Devils.  The schedule gets easier going forward here, so you can expect to see the Red Storm with a bid for the NCAA Tournament.  Which is what I called, way back in October.  Seriously, sometimes it's hard being so smart.

2.  Penn State Nittany Lions. You gotta admit, they're doing what they can.  It's an uphill climb considering they're just 12-8 and missed every chance to get a quality non-conference win, but they're now 5-4 in a good Big Ten, the RPI is moving up (now #45), the strength of schedule is good (#6), the win over Duquesne is looking better and better, and, even if Michigan State is free-falling, the wins over Illinois and Wisconsin will hold up nicely.  Talor Battle is getting help from PSU's trio of senior forwards - David Jackson, Andrew Jones, and especially Jeff Brooks - and that makes this team very dangerous.  Their home court advantage has been quite strong this year, if they can steal a game or two on the road they'll be in the big dance.

3.  Duquesne Dukes.  At the beginning of the year, the Atlantic 10 was supposed to be very strong at the top with Xavier, Temple, Dayton, and Richmond, and the rest of the schools kind of blah.  Three of the four have been good, but Dayton has sucked (which they deserve) and Duquesne has not only snuck into their spot, but might be the best team in the conference.  They beat Temple earlier this year, and after shellacking Dayton on Saturday are now 7-0 in conference play and tied with Xavier at the top.  The schedule is favorable, with Xavier still to come at home and both Dayton and Richmond on the road, but everything else is against pretty bad squads.  I don't know if they can get an at-large - the RPI sits at #89 despite the gaudy record, but it would be a shame if they fall short because this is a really fun team to watch.  Or at least it was fun watching them destroy the most hated team in the country.  I'm referring to Dayton and it's dirty hippie fans.

4.  Darius Morris.  I said he's the best point guard in the country and he really helps bolster my argument when he does things like he did against Iowa on Sunday:  12 pts, 11 assists, 10 rebounds for just the third triple-double in Michigan history (Manny Harris, Gary Grant).  Considering Kalin Lucas and Talor Battle are not point guards, and I have no idea what McCamey is but he sure as hell isn't a PG (more later), that leaves Morris up against Jordan Taylor, Michael Thompson, Al Nolen, Bryce Cartwright, Aaron Craft, Lewis Jackson, and Jordan Hulls.  Not a bad group, and Craft might end up the best of the bunch eventually, but I'd take Morris for sure over every other one of those guys except maybe Jordan Taylor.  That one would be close, but if you need a pure distributor Morris is your man.  If you need more scoring go with Taylor.  Or roofies.

5.  Georgetown Hoyas.  I'm not sure if there's a tougher team to figure out than the Hoyas.  They're clearly good, but are they GOOD or just good?  They have three awesome guards and a suspect interior, so are they are March sleeper because of their guard play or a March quick out because of a weak interior?  I don't know either, but they are looking like they might be hitting their stride, so if you want to jump on the wagon I'd do it now.  Their win over St. Johns was expected, but doing it by 25 was not, and then going to Villanova and knocking off the #7 Wildcats wasn't.  Austin Freeman is a stone cold pimp (scored 10 of G-Town's last 12 against Nova, and assisted on the other 2), Jason Clark is a dead-eye from deep, and Chris Wright just makes it all happen.  If they get anything from their post guys they're a final four team.  Although they could also go out in the first round.  Just like every other god damn team in this crazy stupid year.



WHO SUCKED

1.  Syracuse Orange.  First their defense was exploited on the road at Pitt, then Villanova shot the lights out to beat them in Syracuse, then they were shredded by Seton Hall - in Syracuse - and followed that up by dropping yet another game to Marquette.  So that makes four straight losses piggybacking their 18-0 start.  Three of the four losses are explainable, even if the home loss to Nova is unfortunate, but that loss at home to Seton Hall is troubling and rather inexplicable - especially since they lost by 22.  The Hall had only two prior conference wins, over bottom feeders DePaul and South Florida, but they roll into the Carrier Dome and run the Orange out of it.  Here's what I think happened - Pitt exploited the zone and showed how athletic guards with some size could dribble-penetrate into the gaps and either score or find open teammates and everybody else has copied them.  Each team they've lost to on this skid has guards who can do just that.  They're done.  Cooked.  Over.

2.  Michigan State Spartans.  Well you knew this was coming, and these guys are just a mess.  A home loss to Michigan and an comeback overtime one-point win against Indiana, also at home, say that this isn't a team that's starting slowly and will peak in March.  No, this is more like a team that sucks and will be lucky to sniff the NCAA tournament, let alone peak during it.  Suddenly, despite being nearly the same team that made the Final Four last year, they're turning the ball over like crazy and playing nearly zero defense - not a great combination.  Their strength of schedule is good, which will keep them in the postseason picture if they can turn it around or at least play like an average team, but it's looking less and less likely that it's even a possibility.  If Wisconsin doesn't implode late in the game in East Lansing, Jeremiah Rivers doesn't miss free throws down the stretch, and Northwestern doesn't blow a lead with 30 seconds to play, the Spartans are 2-7 and in 10th place.  I know that's a lot of IFs, but it just underscores how awful they've been.  And I really don't have a clue why.

3.  Demetri McCamey. I've said it a million times, but I'll say it again:  Demetri McCamey is not a point guard and Illinois will not win their first round NCAA game with him running the show.  He proved me right yet again in the Illini's awful loss @ Indiana this week - Indiana's first win over a ranked team in their last 20 tries.  McCamey's line:  6 points on 2-11 shooting (2-7 from three, nice job getting in the lane, guy), with 3 assists and 5 turnovers.  Even worse, down the stretch Illinois had Brandon Paul running the point, who isn't a point guard either.  Trust me you guys, I know the numbers look like something a good PG would put up (15 pts and 7 assists per game), but just watch him.  Or watch Illinois in any late game situation, several of which they've screwed up already this year.  He's awful.  Please, I beg you, pick against them in round 1 of the tournament.  It's a lock. 

4.  Butler Bulldogs.  I'm actually really sick of writing about Butler, but they keep showing up here because they are a huge disappointment and they suck.  This week they did an absolute awesome job of making sure they don't get an at-large bid, losing to both Milwaukee (at home) and Valparaiso (on the road), dropping their Horizon record to 6-4, overall record to 14-8, and chances of getting an at-large to about 1.4%.  Of course, I'm sure they'll win their conference tournament and sneak in, and everybody will think they are a trendy upset pick, but you'll know they suck and pick against them.  I swear to god if there's a first round Butler/Illinois matchup I'm going to the light something on fire.

5.  The Coreys.  No, not Haim and Feldman.  Those guys rocked in everything, even Dream a Little Dream and that Lost Boys movie with that hot chick from the final season of the O.C. (pictured).  I mean the stupid fake Coreys from Villanova, who are less irritating than Scottie Reynolds but still make me want to punch my own nuts with a pepper grinder.  Villanova had a rough week, losing to Providence on the road and then at home to Georgetown, dropping them to 5-3 in the Big East, and fake Corey Haim and fake Corey Feldman didn't help.  Corey Fisher (Feldman) shot 7-20 in the two games, while Corey Stokes (Haim), whose only identifiable skill is scoring (shooting heroin) went 4-23 (Four.  For. Twenty.  Three) and registered four turnovers against just one assist.  Those two aren't the only reason they went 0-2 this week, because the whole team sucked outside of Maalik Wayns (who we'll call Nicole Eggert), but the Corey's are what make this team go.  Just like grandpa's cadillac.  Probably end up about the same, too.

Oh, and I missed the second half of the Gopher game because I was at a kids' birthday party, so my thoughts on that are:  did you really expect them to win @ Purdue?  Just worry about the games they could/should win.  Let's just win in Bloomington here, mmmmkay?  This one is terrifying.

Big Ten Wrap-up, 11/8/2010

Last week the rest of the Big Ten team's kicked off their exhibition slates (Illinois started the week before) and every team in the conference played a game.  Surprise!  They went 11-0, with only Illinois struggling in their game (and Michigan, but they suck).  It doesn't really tell us much as far as beating up on this level of competition but we can find some player trends that can be interesting.  You can find my thoughts on your beloved Gopher hoopsters here, but there were some interesting developments from other teams:

• Illinois turned the ball over 20 and 23 times in their two exhibition games, leading to smaller than expected winning margins (10 and 9 points).  I expect this to be their achilles heel throughout the year, since they haven't had an actual point guard since Chester Frazier graduated.  And yes, I'm aware Demetri McCamey led the Big Ten in assists last year.  I don't care.  You will never convince me he's an actual point guard. 
• Maurice Creek scored 16 points in 20 minutes during Indiana's win over Franklin College.  It's not so much the dominating inferior competition, as it is coming back from a big time knee injury to take a team-high 14 shots in only 20 minutes that tells me he's being aggressive, which likely means there are no lingering issues.
• I was wondering if Purdue would end up with a third scorer emerging or if it would be a collective Robbie Hummel pick-me-up, and the first game was a collective effort with six guys scoring between six and nine points in their game against Indianapolis (Moore and Johnson led with 11 and 13), including talented freshmen Terone and Anthony Johnson.
• Draymond Green has added the three-point shot to his repertoire.  Last year Green shot just 16 three-pointers all year, making two.  Last week in Michigan State's game against Saginaw Valley State he shot three, making two.  Interesting.  Also if he and Maurice Walker ever guard each other in a game that floor is caving in.
• Jershon Cobb is going to make an impact for Northwestern after starting and scoring 12 points in 21 minutes.  He's a top 150 recruit in the country, I'm assuming the first for the Wildcats, and they're looking to him immediately, which makes me think he's probably as good as advertised.  Adding a fourth scorer makes Northwestern far more dangerous and far more relevant.  
• Tim Hardaway, Jr. is certainly not afraid to shoot, and I'm guessing he's going to kill the Wolverines more than once this year.  Despite shooting 1-7 from three and 2-10 overall he led the team in shot attempts and three-point attempts.  
• John Gasser might be the non-descript, non-heraled white freshman who makes the biggest splash for the Badgers this year.  He led Wisconsin freshmen in minutes (20) and points (9), and fun fact:  he's from Port Washington, Wisconsin, which is where the hit TV show Step-by-Step took place.  I always loved Al.  Once she got old enough, I mean.

• Talor Battle is still not getting any help from his front court.  Their senior starting trio tallied just a combined 18 points against a severly undersized East Stroudsberg team with nobody over 6-6 on the roster.  If Penn State is going to make a surprising run to an NCAA bid, Battle's going to need somebody to help out in the paint.  This doesn't bode well.
• I mentioned in my Big Ten preview that the one big weakness for the Buckeyes could be a point guard, but it perhaps freshman Aaron Craft is up for the task because he notched 8 assists to go along with 12 points in the Ohio State rout of Walsh.  It's also tough to get a true gauge on somebody's value when their team wins 102-56, and Adam Boone once looked like the next Magic in an exhibition game, but this certainly isn't a bad sign for OSU. 
• Iowa is still terrible, even if they did manage to win by 45.  And Eric May will probably have to carry the team.  Have fun with that.

So, you see, there are a few nuggets we can take from these games.  Some may be indicators of the future, while some may not, but what the hell, we're just here chat anyway.

COMING UP THIS WEEK

Illinois gets things rolling in the 2k Sports Coaches vs. Cancer Classic, playing UC-Irvine tonight and Toledo on Wednesday as the 2010-2011 College Basketball season gets officially rolling.  Other Big Ten teams play their final exhibition tune-ups during the week before getting things started for real over the weekend, mainly versus cupcake city.  The only two games that could be remotely competitive are the Gophers vs. Wofford and Northwestern vs. Northern Illinois.  Wofford won the Southern Conference last year, almost upset Wisconsin in round 1 of the NCAA Tournament, and return four starters including conference POY (and Minnesota boy) Noah Dahlman.  It should be a good test to see exactly where the Gophers stand this year.  Northwestern vs. NIU is only interesting because it's rare a Big Ten team opens on the road, but the Wildcats should be able to handle them without issue.

AROUND THE NATION  

Still no real games, just a bunch of exhibitions that nobody really reports on unless it's Duke, so no real comments here.  Of note though is the play of Harrison Barnes, a preseason All-American as a freshman.  Let's just say he didn't exactly live up to the hype in his first exhibition game, tallying just .

Coming up, the season gets started for Pitt, Texas, and Maryland early as they join Illinois in the Coaches vs. Cancer tourney and tip-off Monday, with Pitt facing a good tester right out of the box in Rhode Island.  Then everybody gets going over the weekend, with the best games probably Seton Hall @ Temple, Georgetown @ Old Dominion, and Northern Iowa @ Syracuse on Friday, San Diego State @ Long Beach State and Weber State @ Utah State on Saturday, and South Dakota State @ Iowa on Sunday (LOL, at least it should be competitive).

College hoops is here.  It's finally here.

Finally, here are the futures bets I've got for the season. If you can still get any of these teams at anywhere near these odds I would highly recommend jumping on them, although most of them have come considerably down. Because I'm a genius.


TO WIN NCAA CHAMPIONSHIP:
Washington 60-1
Minnesota 150-1
Virginia Tech 200-1
San Diego State 100-1
NC State 200-1
Arizona 100-1
Baylor 30-1

TO WIN CONFERENCE REGULAR SEASON TITLE:
Minnesota 12-1 (BIG TEN)
St. Johns 12-1 (BIG EAST)
Missouri 6-1 (BIG 12)

I also kind of like NC State in the ACC at 8-1, but Duke is so loaded this year it's basically throwing money away betting against them.

Gophers head to Champaign. Great.

Yes, the Gophers head to Assembly hall, bastion of shame and losingness, with little to no hope of an NCAA bid.  Hopefully they can maybe pull this one out, if only just to teases us for a bit longer before they lose at Michigan.

1.  Is this a bubble elimination game?  Sort of.  If Minnesota loses, their chances are done.  I think even if they were to win out and make the Big Ten Final and lose there, they still wouldn't get in.  In that case, it's an elimination game for the Gophers.  As for the Illini, they're a bit tougher to read.  Although losing this game wouldn't crush their chances, it would make things more difficult for them, because their last two games are at Ohio State and then home against the Badgers.  If they win even one more game it gets them to 11 Big Ten wins, and with non-conference victories over Vanderbilt and Clemson it's hard to imagine them not getting in at that point.  The RPI is 64 which is a bit iffy, so they'd probably be better off getting two wins.  So no, it's not an elimination game for Illinois, but it would make things a lot scarier for them if they lose.

2.  Is Illinois good?  Well, I picked them 7th in the conference before the season started, so they're obviously better than I thought they'd be, but it's hard to get a real read on this team.  The previously mentioned wins over Vanderbilt and Clemson are both impressive, especially since the win over Clemson was on the road, but they also lost non-conference games to a couple of terrible teams in Utah (RPI 142) and Bradley (105).  In conference play they've mostly beat up on the bad teams, with six of their Big Ten wins coming in season sweeps of Indiana, Iowa, and Penn State, but they also have a couple of really nice wins, one over Michigan State and a very impressive win in the Kohl Center over Sconnie.  I think what it really boils down to is that they are an above average team, and the very definition of a bubble team.  A couple of breaks either way (they won by three or less against Clemson, Penn State and Indiana, and lost by three or less against Gonzaga, Utah, and Georgia) and they could be firmly IN or OUT at this point.

3.  What's going on with McCamey?  One of the biggest concerns I had about the Illini this year was point guard play.  Chester Frazier was no brilliant scorer or anything, but he could run the point, and with his graduation Illinois didn't really have a point guard, and I didn't think McCamey could become one.  He seems to have made the adjustment (mostly) however, and even tossed in a 16-assist game against Purdue last week, his third game with 9+ assists in the team's last five, and he now ranks second in the country in assists per game.  Second in the country.  Think about that one.  However he's still not brilliant with the ball, as his 3.5 turnovers per game are a problem and he's currently riding a four game streak of 5+ turnovers.  I tend to think the turnovers right now have a lot to do with him trying to create, and kind of go along with assists and playmaking (Evan Turner is the worst in the Big Ten at 3.8 per game), so the real key is going to be containing the assists and his ability to create open shots for his teammates while capitalizing on the turnovers, because they will come.

4.  Has Ralph arrived?  I certainly like to think so.  I couldn't have been more proud on Wednesday, up until the part where they lost.  Ralphie went up against the best center in the Big Ten in Johnson, and not only held his own he dominated the matchup.  Johnson ended up with good numbers, but after a hot start he was mostly invisible while Ralph carried the Gopher offense on his back.  I'm very interesting in seeing how he handles Tisdale on Saturday.  Ralph has a size and strength advantage, but at this stage of his development he's still a finesse player which plays in to the taller Tisdale's hands.  Hopefully we see another step in his path towards Big Ten POY and he brutalizes him down low. 

5.  Can the Gophers actually win in Champaign?  They never do, do they?  The Gophers have been playing very well lately and if that keeps up they have a solid chance, but the Illini are no easy pushover, and somebody is going to have to keep Mike Davis off the boards.  I think I can make three solid predictions for the game:

1)  At some point, the Gophers will have a double-digit lead
2)  At some point with ten minutes left in the game or less, the Gophers will have a lead.
3)  When the final gun sounds, Gopher fans are left feeling disappointed once again by this team

Illinois 63, Minnesota 60

As far as the bubble goes, last night Tulsa whiffed on their big chance to get back in consideration by losing at Duke.  Nobody expected them to win, but it was still their last chance, any way you look at it (barring a win in the C-USA tournament which is certainly possible) and you can now officially cross of Louisiana Tech after their loss to Boise.  Cal and Arizona State both won, increasing the chances of two Pac-10 teams making the dance, and Utah State and St. Mary's both won absolute must-have games.

THIS WEEKEND'S BUBBLE GAMES OF NOTE:

Princeton @ Cornell - If Cornell wins, they all but lock up the Ivy.  If they lose they are tied with Princeton at the top.

Kansas @ Oklahoma State - An OSU win might be enough to put them in.

Cincinnati @ West Virginia - The Bearcats have little margin for error, and a marquee win like this would be huge.

Illinois State @ Northern Iowa - UNI can't afford another loss to a sub-par team.

Rice @ UTEP - Neither can the Miners.

Tulane @ UAB - Same deal for the Blazers.

Ole Miss @ Alabama - Can the Rebels make a late season push?

Arizona State @ Cal - I'm calling the winner of this one IN.

UNLV @ Air Force - Rebels starting to look a bit shaky, if they drop this one they might be out.

Maryland @ Virginia Tech - The Hokies must win here.

VCU @ Old Dominion - Tough game for ODU, but they can't lose another one.

Charlotte @ George Washington - Charlotte is another team that can't lose a game if they want a bid.

Penn @ Cornell - Same deal here, but this takes on even more importance if the Big Red are dropped by Princeton Friday night.

UMass @ Dayton - Dayton is on very thin ice due to a poor A-10 performance, they're another team that's probably one loss away from being dropped from consideration altogether.

Loyola-Marymount @ St. Mary's - LMU beat Gonzaga earlier this month, could they knock St. Mary's into the NIT? (Answer = no).

Richmond @ Xavier.  Both these teams are almost certainly in, but it should be a pretty great game, and the winner moves to definite lock status.

Marquette @ Seton Hall - Bubble elimination game?  Certainly for the Pirates.

Louisville @ UCONN - Both teams will probably make it, but the winner here takes a step up.

Clemson @ Florida State - Similar to the game above, but both these teams are a bit shakier than the two above.

Busy weekend.  Go Gophers.