NBA Central Division Preview

Kyrie plus Dion
Equals offensive rebounds
galore for Andy.

Cleveland's post-Lebroncalypse rebuilding effort continues in 12-13.  They landed Dion Waiters and Tyler Zeller in the draft.  Some thought Waiters was a bit of a reach as he didn't even start in college.  He looked a bit clunky and out of shape in the summer, struggled in the pre-season, but scored 17 points with 3 steals in one NBA game so far!  Zeller may not be a complete stiff, which is good because Varejao will draw some calls before the trade deadline. The Alonzo Gee/CJ Miles/Omri Casspi show at the 3 has to be the worst in the league.  Second year PF Tristan Thompson was the #4 overall pick in 2011 and will look to build on a promising run as a starter at the end of last season.

Starting Unit:
PG Kyrie Irving
SG Dion Waiters
SF Alonzo Gee
PF Tristan Thompson
C  Anderson Varejao

They had 21 wins last season and the over/under is 30.5.  The question is are CJ Miles, Zeller and Waiters worth more than Antawn Jamison, Ramon Sessions, Anthony Parker and uh...Christian Eyenga?  For this year, I say no, but it's certainly better for the future.  Under 30.5.

What the mother eff?
How did Noah score that?
Bet she has a 'stache

Last year Chicago went 50-16 and were aiming to do some damage in the playoffs when Derrick Rose's knee burst into flames.  Now he may not return until February or March and it's up to Kirk Hinrich and Nate Robinson to keep his spot warm and keep the team winning.  Deng and Boozer will be relied on heavily to provide offensive punch that doesn't involve the aforementioned 42% shooters.  If Rip Hamilton can stay healthy for a year that would help too.  This is still a strong defensive team under Thibodeau with Deng, Taj Gibson and Noah.  Former Marquette small forward Jimmy Butler also gets his shot this year after missing last season with injury.  He's also a lock down type defender.

Starting Unit:
PG: Kirk Hinrich (goggles version)
SG: Rip Hamilton (faceguard version)
SF: Luol Deng
PF: Carlos Boozer
C : Joakim Noah

The o/u is 47.5 and despite no Rose for the bulk of the year I'm going over.  One, this squad will stay in games with defense and perhaps the new additions of Hinrich/SuperNate/Butler/Bellinelli and a full year of Rip can score enough points to make them a winner.  I also suspect that Rose is busting his ass to be back early.

Good thing nobody
Watches NBA basket-
ball in Wisconsin

Actually, it's not quite as bad as my haiku makes it seem.  The Bucks have decent starters at every position save small forward, but are forced to rely on Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings to both co-exist and be the stars on the team.  Former first round pick Tobias Harris will be given a shot to be the starting small forward at least until Luc Richard meh Mehbute returns.  Ersan Ilyasova had a break through year and if either of the guards share he could build on an impressive '11-12 season.  He had 13 points and 9 rebounds per game despite only starting in 41 contests and playing just 27.6 minutes per game.  Every one of those numbers will increase for this season.  Samuel Dalembert is a solid defensive center that will block some shots and get some rebounds for them.  The Bucks added lanky defensive freak John Henson from North Carolina in the first and may have also scored with second round pick Doron Lamb of Kentucky.  They'll hopefully provide some needed depth.

Starting Unit:
PG Brandon Jennings
SG Monta Ellis
SF Tobias Harris
PF Ersan Ilyasova
C  Samuel Dalembert

This team doesn't blow me away, and I think the o/u is pretty accurate at 36.5, but since I'm a predicting machine, I'll go over.

What's better than eight
points scored over nine seconds?
Strippers and booze, duh.

The Pacers are a well built team that appear to have ever growing expectations.  They have one my favorite players in the NBA in Paul George and he'll be relied upon heavily early with Danny Granger's knee acting all wonky.  Granger is going for the dreaded second opinion, which could lead to surgery of some sort.  Darren Collison is in Dallas this year which means IUPUI's own George Hill will be the point guard this season.  He's not as flashy as Collison, but can shoot it and protects the ball.  David West is still a productive 4 and Hibbert continues to play borderline all-star basketball at the pivot.  Sam Young of Pitt and Gerald Green of slam dunks will see more time because of Granger's absence as well.  Green has recently shown a lot of scoring ability, it sure would have been neat if he did that as a member of the Wolves.  The bench also features Tyler Hansbrough, Ian Mahinmi, Miles Plumlee and Lance Stephenson, so they have some depth there.

Starting Unit:
PG George Hill
SG Paul George
SF Sam Young
PF David West
C  Roy Hibbert

The Pacers have a 51.5 o/u and I'd hit the under solely because of Granger.  If there is good news on the second opinion, I'd go over.

Bad boys they aren't
but there are some good signs here.
Miss America



The Pistons rebuilding effort really begins with talented play of Greg Monroe.  In just his second full season he was a double double machine, averaging 12/10.  He also can handle the ball well and gets his share of blocks and steals on the defensive end.  Brandon Knight will be entering his second season after a solid rookie campaign where he had 13/3/4 and shot 38% from downtown.  He'll look to expand on those numbers, especially the assists.  Stuckey is a player more suited to be a combo guard off of the bench, but seeing as Kim English and Will Bynum are the depth in the backcourt, he'll be leaned on to be a scorer.  Prince, Maggette, Singler, Jerebko, Maxiell, Daye and Villanueva are part of a cluster of forwards that make shake any number of ways.  The Pistons likely regret not trading Tayshaun when they had a chance; now he's just a bloated contract in a complimentary player.  Ideally for the Pistons, first round selection Andre Drummond from UConn develops at a high speed and takes over the 5 spot shifting Monroe to the 4.


Starting Unit:
PG Brandon Knight
SG Rodney Stuckey
SF Tayshaun Prince
PF Jason Maxiell
C  Greg Monroe

The Pistons are at a 31.5 o/u and I'm going under  I like Knight and Monroe to continue to develop, and there's enough depth there to steal a few wins but I feel a late season tank coming on here.

Tuesday's Talkings (mostly nba draft stuff)

Thanks to stupid softball I won't be able to watch the draft live (although I am tivo'ing with a hope for a live blog up by Monday) so I was going to do a mock draft.  Then I got about 7 picks into it and got really bored.  Instead of a whole mock, here are some things to watch for:

-  How the Wolves screw up the #2 pick in a 2-player draft.  Trade for Roy Hibbert?  Trade with Kevin Love for Pau Gasol?  Trade for Marcin Gortat?  Draft some foreign player?  Stay tuned, it's the most intriguing part of the draft.

-  Utah to trade the #3 pick.  This is a two player draft and the Jazz apparently can't come to a consensus on a player, so it makes sense for them to move backwards.  If they don't, look for them to take Kanter.

-  If they take Kanter, Toronto will start salivating at getting Knight at #5 since their current starting PG is Jose freaking Calderon.  I would also expect Cleveland to get a ton of calls from teams looking to get that #4 pick, knowing the Cavs won't take Knight when they just took Irving.   They aren't the T-Wolves for god's sake.

-  How far with Jonas Valanciunas slip?  I won't pretend to know anything about him, but he's supposed to be the best Euro this year (which, let's be honest, is a little like being the most honorable Lannister - or the least douchiest Blue Devil if you prefer your analogies less nerdy).  But Chad Ford has been reporting lately that there are some issues with his buyout from commiesylvania which may cause him to slip.  Personally I'm betting, if the pick isn't traded, that the Cavs take him in kind of a "we already have our sure thing in Irving, let's go for the home run" mode.  A move I'd applaud if I gave a crap about Cleveland.

-  Steals:  Kemba Walker (anybody who can carry a team the way he did can adjust his game to make it in the NBA), Tristan Thompson (already can rebound and play defense at an NBA level), Marshon Brooks (one of the best scorers in the draft), Kenneth Faried (will make an impact immediately), Tobias Harris (best chance at becoming an all-star someday out of the late 1st round types), and Trey Thompkins (just needs polish).

-  Busts:  Kawhi Leonard (way too tweenery, not enough skill to overcome it), Jan Vesesly (girls name), Jimmer Fredette (future And 1 all-star), Iman Shumpert (completely boggled that he's a mid-first round pick, basically a slower T.J. Ford), Nikola Vucevic (yes, let's take the slow, white, 7-footer - that always works out), and Demetri McCamey (wherever he's taken in the NBDL draft it will be too soon).

- My biggest hope for the Wolves - other than they just take Williams at #2 - is that they find a way to trade the #20 pick, either for a future #1, a veteran and not terrible C or SG, or both.  The one team I've seen mentioned a couple of times as looking for a pick in the 20s is the Cavaliers, and although they're pretty barren when it comes to SGs they do have a few big men who are probably expendable since they have a bunch of young guys they probably want to give an extensive tryout to - Antawn Jamison (yuck) and Anderson Varejao (I can see this).  I feel like Varejao's constantly running motor, fundamental hustle, and excellent defense would fit on this team very well, and on a team as young as the Wolves getting a guy like him might be worth the #20 pick since they don't really have room for any more mediocre young dudes.  I don't know how the whole salary thing works and I have no idea if the Cavs would have any interest in trading him, but I'd be down.  Assuming he's not hurt or something.  I don't pay nearly enough attention to the NBA to know everything.

-  Apropos of nothing I'm talking about, but you can never trust a pitcher with a stripper's name, eh Madison Bumgarner?

And a few college hoop notes before I go:

- The early scouting reports and some excellent video shot by gopherhole poster jmag21 are in, and it sounds like Oto Osenieks is going to rank on the white boy scale somewhere between Blake Hoffarber and Dirk Nowitzki.  There's no doubt that jumper is silky smooth and looks to be accurate so far, so even if he never learns to play defense or rebound he'll be pretty close to Blake, and at 6-8, 205 lbs. I'm not exactly expecting him to put on a rebounding clinic, but I'm officially intrigued.  My only real hope is that he isn't just some tall skinny white dork who hangs out around the three point line all day.   I mean, that might be fine during his freshman year, but he needs to progress and get better.  Since that's something Tubby has excelled at since his arrival here I feel good about Oto's chances.

- Speaking of white three-point shooters, Ricky Kreklow is transferring from Missouri.  There was at least some mutual interest there (like between me and your mom) when he was going through the recruiting process the first time.  I don't know if anybody has any interest on either side this time around, but the dude can shoot so I'm interested, and I'd like to go ahead and just throw his name out there so on the off chance he ends up a Gopher I can point out how smart I am.

- Lastly, if you thought it was going to be difficult for the Gophers to sign Tyus Jones things just got more difficult when Jones made the U-16 team as the starting point guard, which vaulted him to #1 PG in his class status, if he wasn't there already.  ESPN already ranks him the #1 PG for 2014 and the #9 recruit overall, and he's got Ohio State, North Carolina, Washington, UCLA, Pitt, and Michigan State after him, amongst others, although let's be honest it doesn't really matter - he can basically write his own ticket anywhere.  So why would he pick the Gophers?  I can't really come up with anything.  The best I can do is loyalty, but I think that really only extends to fans and dogs. 

We can only hope.and wait at this point.  Plus we have a saying around here, "Let Shelbyville handle it."

Week in Review - 12.13.2010

 So how about those Minnesota Gophers?  The second half, and specifically that huge run to start the half, was great and all, but this team is just flat, man.  Sampson and Mbakwe played well when they go the ball, and Trevor continues to shock me with the things he can do, but this team is certainly in a bit of trouble.  Up just three points at half to Eastern Kentucky?  And that lead was only because Maverick Ahanmisi hit a half-court shot.  Not to mention how much worst it should have/could have been if the Colonels didn't miss a whole ass-ton of wide open three-pointers.

I know Al Nolen is gone, and he's the "glue guy" or the "catalyst" or whatever, but he's not going to be back until something like three weeks into the Big Ten season and if they don't learn to play better without him they're going to dig themselves a nice hole in the standings.  The Big Ten is deep and very good this year, playing like they have the last three games against any Big Ten team, including Iowa, will result in a quick deficit leading to a quick loss.

I won't say they sucked, because they did win and do a nice job in the second half and pounding the ball in the paint, but I can't say they're awesome either because they won a game they should have won by 25 by just 13.  Just two more games to get their shit together before conference play starts and the Gophers travel to Wisconsin and then Michigan State to open.  Right now I don't see any possible way they aren't starting 0-2. 


WHO WAS AWESOME

1.  Jared Sullinger.  In our Big Ten Fantasy Hoops league, Sullinger went #3 overall to Elk and there was some questioning of the pick by some of the other players.  Although he was putting up good numbers he was outscored in Week 1 by several players who went right after him - Draymond Green, Jon Leuer, Demetri McCamey, etc. which made the pick look even more curious.  But Sullinger turned it on this week with a 40 point, 13 rebound performance against IUPUI and followed it up with "just" 17 and 5 against Western Carolina.  No, the competition wasn't exactly the best, but Sullinger is now 6th in scoring and 2nd in rebounding (to Mbakwe) in the Big 10.  Not bad for a freshman, and not bad for the #3 pick in the fantasy league.

2.  Rick Jackson.  I don't know if you're aware of this but Rick Jackson - the Syracuse power forward - has become an unstoppable monster.  He's like a better version of Trevor Mbakwe - yes, I'm serious.  After putting up a 17 pts./16 reb game against Michigan State during the week he followed it up with an 18 & 10 against Colgate this weekend, and that now gives him 8 double-doubles in the Orange's ten games this year.  With Jackson's development into a stud, Kris Joseph's big-time scoring ability, and solid point play from Scoop Jardine, the Orange are suddenly a contender without having gotten anything from their heralded freshman class.  If those develop as the season goes along, watch out. 

3.  Terrence Jones.  I read somewhere a lot of talk about how this class of Wildcats isn't like the last one, and you shouldn't expect a full-on stripped down roster:  Doron Lamb is almost certainly a 2-year player, Brandon Knight might have to go a second year, etc.  But one player who is basically certain to bolt is Jones, who is basically running circles around every opponent other than North Carolina.  He's had five double-doubles in nine games and has put up some absolutely monster performances including Wednesday against Notre Dame where he put up a 27 point, 17 rebound performance - and that was his second 17-rebound game on the year.  Guy is a beast.  He's also going to be a bust in the NBA.  That's a call, Bert.

4.  Louisville Cardinals.  I don't know exactly how this ended up happening because based on personnel it was looking like a down year in Louisville, but suddenly the Cardinals are 8-0 and extremely relevant after beating an awfully good UNLV team this weekend in Vegas.  Terrence Jennings is finally starting to show some of the Terrence Williams/Earl Clark he was supposed to be, but this is a very balanced team with 9 players who score at least 5.5 points per game and 6 who score at least 8.4, and is led by a dynamic backcourt of Preston Knowles and Peyton Siva.  I don't know if they have enough size to get through in March, but right now kenpom.com has them as the 11th best team in the country and an absolute lockdown defensive squad.  Good back court, balanced scoring, and great defense?  That's basically a blue-print for March success.  Add in Pitino and they could be a nice sleeper team.

5.  Boston College Eagles.  Coming into the year it was supposed to be Duke at the top of the ACC, followed by whoever emerged out of Maryland, North Carolina, NC State, or Florida State, and then a bunch of crap.  While most of the bunch of crap has lived up to it's name, BC has risen to the top and may have had the best week out of anybody this week, beating a pretty good Providence team at home and then going into Maryland and knocking off the Terps.  An embarrassing early loss to Yale has basically been wiped out, because other than those two wins they've also knocked off a bunch of BCS teams - not good BCS teams, but good enough to help out that RPI - Indiana, Cal, Texas A&M (also UMass).  Nice little surprise team here.


WHO SUCKED

1.  Mid-major "dynasties."  If we don't count the Atlantic-10 as a mid-major, and I don't, the two biggest mid-major dynasties are clearly Butler and Gonzaga, and suddenly each of them is facing the prospect of having to win their conference tournament to get into the big dance.  Butler sits at 5-4 and has lost every meaningful game and lost to crappy Evansville.  Gonzaga is 4-5 and in the middle of a three game losing streak, and outside of a win over Marquette they've done nothing, getting crushed by Illinois, Washington State, and Kansas State.  A couple of other really solid mid-majors over the last few years, Siena in the MAAC and Northern Iowa in the Missouri Valley, are looking like they can forget at-larges as well.  Siena is now 2-5 with some really, really bad losses (Albany, Princeton) an dis dead in the water, and Northern Iowa is 4-3 with losses to Iowa and Milwaukee.  Basically the first four teams I think of when I think mid-major are all either already out of the running for an at-large or are facing a major uphill battle.  Weird year.  Not counting the A-10, Mountain West, or Memphis, the Colonial might have the three best mid-major teams in the country.

2.  St. Johns Red Storm.  Wow we wow wow.  Well apparently my sleeper Big East squad is more sleepy than sleeper, because they had an absolute brutal week, losing to two A-10 bottom feeders in St. Bonnie's and Fordham this week.  St. Bonnie's is bad, but they are at least a halfway decent squad, but the loss to Fordham is inexcusable.  The Rams are 5-4, but are still one of the worst teams in the country after winning a total of just 5 games the last two years.  In short, these two losses are hugely embarrassing for St. Johns, and they almost kill their post-season chances.  They play in the Big East so they could go on a run and end up in good shape, but losing these two games says pretty definitively that this team sucks way too hard to do that.  I am awesome and picking sleepers.

3.  Pac-10 Contenders.  There are exactly two good teams in the Pac-10:  Washington and Arizona.  Both played road games against decent, but beatable, teams on Saturday with a chance to show how good they really are.  Both failed miserably.   Washington lost by one to Texas A&M and Arizona got crushed by BYU.  This whole demise of the Pac-10 thing is completely out of control.  I think this is year 3 of them sucking it up.  Get your shit together or we're going to have to replace you with the Mountain West.


4.  The Metrodome.  Nice stadium, lol.  Where are we, exactly?  Bratislava?

5.  Kyrie Irving.  I'm not a Duke fan, not remotely, but Irving's injury and possible out-for-the-yearedness really sucks in a lot of ways.  First, he was incredible and fun to watch.  Like a Ty Lawson who could score, and he was only a handful of games into his freshman year and was just getting better.  Seventeen points per game on 53% shooting and 45% from three with 5 assists and 4 boards as well and a 2-1 assist-to-turnover ratio?  Wow.  And we lose out on a juggernaut Duke team that had a legit shot at going undefeated.  Not that I like Duke, I hate them, but remember how much fun it was rooting against the Patriots their undefeated year?  And how awesome it was when the Giants beat them in the Super Bowl?  We could have had that again in March, but now we will just have to root against Duke with all the regular hate, not super extra hate.  I miss super extra hate.  I wish Favre was still a Packer. 


And about this whole JJ Hardy trade:  I don't get it.  The assumption is that the signing of Nishioka is apparently now imminent, which is fine, but we don't know anything about how his game will transfer.  Ichiro is great, but look at Kaz Matsui - no thanks.  And either way, he can play both middle infield positions, so would you rather roll with a starting tandem of Nishioka and Hardy, or Nishioka and Casilla?  Should be obvious.  With such a pedestrian return for him - two middle reliever prospects of dubious value - this trade doesn't make much sense to me.  I'll let Aaron Gleeman break it down since he does a better job than I and I've already written enough for one day, but Hardy was a valuable piece.  Even if one of the two players they got back becomes a competent reliever that's not as valuable as a quality everyday shortstop.  Not impressed with this off season so far.   Not at all.