Thoughts on every round 1 pick. Some of this was written live, some way later since my kids are spastic morons. Will do some round 2 commentary tomorrow. Or some other time. Some time soon probably. Leave me alone.
1.1 - WOLVES - Karl-Anthony Towns, Kentucky. Love it. Brilliant pick. Here is where I gave my initial thoughts on Towns vs. Okafor, and it became more and more obvious through workouts and Towns would be the pick. I'm just damn glad Flip didn't screw it up.
1.2 LAKERS - D'Angelo Russell, Ohio State. If Towns didn't exist I would have been all over Russell. I really, really like this guy and it wouldn't surprise me if he ends up being the best player from this draft (with Towns a close second, of course). I'm not sure how he'll work next to Kobe since they both are ball dominant types, but to be honest I'm not sure how anybody works next to Kobe at this point. Dude's insane. Free agency should be interesting.
1.3 PHILLY - Jahlil Okafor, Duke. God it would have been so awesome if the Sixers took another project like Porzingis. I don't know if Okafor and Embiid can play together, but I don't know what's up with Embiid anyway, and based on conventional wisdom he's the best player available. I'm pretty sure if you had told Sixer fans they'd get Okafor back in mid-season they'd be thrilled. They still probably should be and Nerlens Noel is a great pairing with him since he can help erase a lot of defensive problems.
1.4 KNICKS - Kristaps Porzingis, Foreign. I just love that this was the Knicks' pick since they're so trainwrecky already. Not that this Porzingis guy is necessarily a train wreck. Everyone raves about him as a different type of Euro player (which we've heard before) so maybe he'll be awesome, but he's also a project and a year or two away from a meaningful impact. I'm sure Melo is thrilled. Plus they could really use a PG. No idea why they didn't go with Mudiay but whatevs.
1.5 ORLANDO - Mario Hezonja, Foreign. One the one hand, they say this guy is the one player in this year's draft who could win both a slam dunk and a 3-point contenst. On the other hand, they just compared him to J.R. Smith. Hopefully for the Magic his head is screwed on a bit straighter. I read somewhere he's a seriously cocky mofo, so who knows. They say he can shoot the lights out, and when three of your key rebuilding pieces are Aaron Gordon, Elfrid Payton, and Victor Oladipo well, you need some shooting.
1.6 KINGS - Willie Cauley-Stein, Kentucky. Twitter and the internet hated this pick, and it was somewhat surprising considering WCS was reported to have some foot issues that had absolute no effect on him last year, but I like it. The NBA big whigs are starting to figure out things like defense are pretty important and he's a monster on that end, and immediately. Offense is a bit problematic, but with DeMarcus Cousins and Rudy Gay on that team I'm not sure how many shots are available anyway, and at least he can dunk well.
1.7 NUGGETS - Emmanuel Mudiay, China. Was thought at one point to possibly be going as highly as top 3, a surprising slide and a good pick for the Nuggets who have apparently made basically everyone available and are going into full tear it down mode. Mudiay, who I still have questions about simply because I've never seen him play, makes it easier to trade Ty Lawson, their most valuable trade chip. I'm kind of surprised they didn't move him already.
1.8 PISTONS - Stanley Johnson, Arizona. Behind Towns and Russell, Johnson is my third favorite player in this draft. Watching him at Arizona he was so athletic and was able to dominate at times without even looking like he was trying. The game just comes so easy to him, and he's got plenty of size and skill.
1.9 HORNETS - Frank Kaminsky, Wisconsin. Well, Jordan is Jordan. Reports came out that he fell in love with Kaminsky in his workout, and despite already having Spencer Hawes on the roster (who is maybe Kaminsky's best case scenario) as well as Cody Zeller and a possible super talent like Justice Winslow dropping in their lap, they go with the Tank. I don't know. It's hard to see Kaminsky developing into a dominant force or anything. I just hate lottery picks with limited upside. Doesn't make sense to me.
1.10 HEAT - Justice Winslow, Duke. A nice little steal for Miami here. I don't know why he slid, especially since there was a little talk about him possibly being a top 3 guy at one point after he showed off in the NCAA Tournament, but the Heat pretty much had to take him. If Hassan Whiteside is legit their lineup of Dragic/Wade/Winslow/Bosh/Whiteside is pretty good if everyone stays healthy. Which they wouldn't with that group, but it'd be pretty solid if they did.
1.11 PACERS - Myles Turner, Texas. I think Turner was like the #2 recruit coming into last season so he's got boatloads of potential. He may not exactly have lived up to it last season but you have to remember his coach was Rick Barnes who probably would have taken Kentucky to the NIT title last year. I wasn't expecting to hear his name this early for some reason, but I think I just read that David West opted out so it makes sense. Might sprinkle a little rookie of the year futures money on him. If he's ready the playing time will be there.
1.12 JAZZ - Trey Lyles, Kentucky. I was a bit surprised by this one since the Derrick Favors and Rudy Gobert front court seems really solid with the back court quite a bit shakier (I thought Booker should have been the pick). Then again, the Jazz are working on becoming a defensively awesome team and Lyles should be able to block some shots. They were pretty much in best player available mode since they were awesome the second half of last year and have their rebuilt lineup pretty much in place so I suppose they think he's the best player available.
1.13 SUNS - Devin Booker, Kentucky. I like Booker here. Probably the best shooter in the draft (besides Towns of course). Despite having a bunch of guard types they don't have anyone you would classify first as a shooter so Booker gives them that added dimension.
1.14 THUNDER - Cameron Payne, Murray State. I only saw one Murray State game this year so I can't really comment intelligently on Payne. I am, however, surprised a bit they went point guard instead of big man considering who they have, but maybe they think Mitch McGary is going to be a player. I myself do not. All I know is they shipped out Jeremy Lamb for Luke Ridnour and then drafted another PG. Weird pick.
1.15 WIZARDS - Kelly Oubre, Kansas. Yeah not getting it. The Wiz also gave up two 2nd round picks to move up here. Bradley Beal and Otto Porter are both pretty young and seemingly have the wing positions on lock down now that Porter remembered how to play basketball. I get that sometimes it makes sense to go best player available and stuff, but I don't know that Oubre is that. My least favorite pick so far.
1.16 CELTICS - Terry Rozier, Louisville. I like Rozier, but I'm always a bit leery of a prospect who rises up the draft boards based on workouts, going from the 2nd round to the mid-first. It's just like the WR who put up mediocre production in college, kills the combine, and shoots into the first round. Seems like those bust more than usual. Not to mention Rozier is a point guard who plays great defense, rebounds really well, and has an iffy jumper - the exact description of Marcus Smart. Weird pick.
1.17 BUCKS - Rashad Vaughn, UNLV. Much higher than I thought he'd go, but Vaughn always had kind of had more of an NBA game than a college game anyway, and he made it pretty clear his goal was 1-and-done so good for him. Milwaukee seems like they're doing that thing where you collect as many interchangeable parts as you can, and Vaughn fits in. Also like that with Dekker on the board the Bucks don't fall into the trap of going for the hometown kid (not a rip on the Tyus trade because that made tons of sense - Vaughn fits here so much better than Dekker).
1.18 ROCKETS - Sam Dekker, Wisconsin. It never even occurred to me but this is a perfect fit. They lost Chandler Parsons, and although Trevor Ariza was a capable replacement I think Dekker is an even better choice since, like Parsons, Dekker is far more white than Ariza. Really, I always thought Dekker would be better in a more uptempo role, and this fits. One of the better player-to-team matches in the draft so far.
1.19 KNICKS - Jerian Grant, Notre Dame. Wow the Knicks actually did something smart. I mentioned above they need a PG (sorry Jose Calderon) and they traded Tim Hardaway (now expendable with last year's emergence of Langston Galloway) for the most ready to contribute PG in the draft in Grant. So they drafted one guy who is maybe two seasons away and one guy who is ready to play right now. That's so Knicks.
1.20 RAPTORS - Delon Wright, Utah. Well this is who I wanted the Wolves to get with that first pick in round 2. I was talking with Snacks today and there was all that talk of the Wolves packaging their two #2s to move back into the first for Tyus Jones, and I said I'd rather have Grant, and he said might as well keep the picks and get Wright and use the second one on a euro stash guy or something. That all made sense. But now Wright and Grant are both gone and Tyus is a pretty big tier above any other point guard left, maybe the trade makes sense (spoiler: they do it. radio is going to be horrible tomorrow).
1.21 MAVERICKS - Justin Anderson, Virginia. Everyone's favorite late first round sleeper, including Grandslam's which I knew because he's sent me at least 3 texts about him tonight. With Monta Ellis and Rajon Rondo peaced out they need some guard play because otherwise they're rolling J.J. Barea and Devin Harris out there. Anderson could be just fine in the long run, but man these guys better be players for a guard in free agency. Gross.
1.22 BULLS - Bobby Portis, Arkansas. They have Taj Gibson and Joakim Noah so this is another pick that doesn't make a ton of sense from a fit sense, but Portis is a monster of an athlete. Depending on how NBA-ready he is (debateable) he could give Chicago some real freedom to move Gibson, who everyone always seems to want, in a trade. Plus his athleticism and defense are big strengths and could fit in well with Chicago's defensive oriented philosophy, which is what I would say if they still had Tom Tibedoux. There's no way that's spelled correctly.
1.23 BLAZERS - Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Arizona. Well he can defend his ass off. With Nic Batum now gone (and I can't believe they're losing LaMarcus Aldridge, wow) Jefferson can pretty much slide right in and do a poor man's approximation on the wing. He's a pretty horrendous shooter, however, so the change will be noticeable. Man, poor Portland. They're gonna be in rough shape next year. Though I guess with Aldridge bouncing that gives them a bunch of money to chase Love or somebody like that.
1.24 WOLVES - Tyus Jones, Duke. I like the trade if they really wanted a back-up for Ricky Rubio which it seems like they did from everything reported and makes a lot of sense since I think Zack LaVine's long term future is brighter as a shooting guard. The only thing I hate about this is you're going to get a ton of vocal rubes loving it since he's from Minnesota and a ton of vocal rubes hating it since he left to go to Duke. Seriously, the radio is going to be brutal tomorrow. Especially PA. He's so dumb. If you like him promise me you'll stop reading this blog because I hate you.
1.25 GRIZZLIES - Jarell Martin, LSU. Monster athlete and I like it. Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph are both still excellent players but they're both sorta ground bound, and Martin is the complete opposite. Back-up bigs are Jon Leuer and Kosta Koufos, so Martin is them going in a totally different direction with their bigs. Plus if I remember right he's a bit feisty which means he'll fit right in. I think. That's the current narrative on them, at least.
1.26 SPURS - Nikola Milutinov, Foreign. Normally taking a Euro dork late is a pretty wasted move, but since this is the Spurs I irrationally find myself assuming it's a great pick. Of course, I thought they got a steal last year with UCLA's Kyle Anderson and he played less than 400 minutes last year (he might have been hurt or something, I don't know but he didn't play much). Also if you click on ESPN's scouting report for this guy it says he lacks a great motor and is a little soft. That really doesn't sound like Pop's kinda guy.
1.27 LAKERS - Larry Nance Jr., Wyoming. I said Martin is a monster athlete but Nance makes Martin look like you. He played at Wyoming and struggled with a bunch of injuries so he never really got a lot of attention in college, but the name means something and seriously he's a great athlete - assuming he's all the way back from like 4 ACL tears or whatever.
1.28 CELTICS - R.J. Hunter, Georgia State. I wonder if he would have been picked this high if he hadn't had the NCAA Tournament he had, but whatevs dude is pretty talented. Celtics with another guard is a bit weird, but at least this one can shoot. They now have Isaiah Thomas, Marcus Smart, Phil Pressey, Avery Bradley, James Young, R.J. Hunter, and Terry Rozier. That's like, way too many guards. Between their draft and the rumors earlier tonight that they were shopping Marcus Smart, I think they're shopping Marcus Smart. Maybe the Wolves can trade Tyus for him?
1.29 NETS - Chris McCullough, Syracuse. You're probably like who? and that makes sense. He was a highly touted, highly regarded recruit before he destroyed his knee and he entered the draft anyway which normally I'd say dude what? but he got the guaranteed cash so good for him. If you recall, the Nets have basically traded every pick they have for the foreseeable future, so at 29 you either go with a less touted prospect or shoot for the stars. McCullough is a shoot for the stars pick and although it probably won't work out it makes total sense for a team with no way to build a future.
1.30 WARRIORS - Kevon Looney, UCLA. Like this guy a lot an a great pick for the champs. I read they have an option on Marreese Speights and now they can cut him loose and save some cash, and David Lee is even easier to move, though I don't know what they have to send along with him and his $15 million contract. Course I seem to almost always love a lot of the end of the 1st round picks for good teams, and how many of them actually work out? Like 3? Ever?
There's your first round. Really like the Wolves draft (and NOT because Tyus is from Minnesota, I would have preferred Grant but I like getting a PG). Here's your depth chart right now:
PG: Rubio/Jones
SG: Martin/LaVine
SF: Wiggins/Muhammad
PF: Towns/Garnett
C: Pekovic/Dieng
Seems fun.
Showing posts with label NBA Draft. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NBA Draft. Show all posts
Thursday, June 25, 2015
Sunday, June 29, 2014
NBA Draft in Review
I did a live blog of the draft right below here, sort of, but due to stupid kids and a stupid new cat the thing wasn't up to par. I think the previously mentioned entities were having a contest to see who could break me, and the winner was my son who made me give up on watching the draft so somehow negotiate a truce between not letting the cat in his room and not having his door closed. An impossible problem, to be sure, but luckily I am a genius and also a 6-time winner of dad of the year at my house, so I managed. However since I was unable to give the draft my full attention I will rectify that now, mainly because there's no world cup on this afternoon and no baseball so I'm cranky. Let's look at what a few teams did that seemed noteworthy.
- First, you have to start with the hometown 9, and though I don't particularly like the Wolves' draft I can't really blast them either because I understand their thought process. Adding Zach LaVine and Glenn Robinson 3 certainly increases the athletic ability of the team, even if neither put up primo college stats or have, you know, skills. I also think Robinson's athleticism is overrated, and given that he doesn't really have a true NBA position and has a tendency to not try real hard all the time I'm not very optimistic with that pick. LaVine has more potential, and everything I'm reading says he could be one of the top 5-10 players out of this draft, and unlike Aaron Gordon, who sucks at basketball, he does have some skills to go along with that athletic ability. I know potential is potential until something actually happens, but the Wolves have to hit on something at some point, right?
- The Sixers are starting to remind me of the Kansas City Royals. Remember when the Royals had all those top prospects and everybody said in 3 years they'd be great, including myself? Sixers are giving off that vibe, and last night they took Joel Embiid, who is likely at least a year away, and Dario Saric, who will probably stick in Turkey for a couple of years. They also got back a first round pick they had given to the Magic to help facilitate the Dwight Howard trade. Basically they're stockpiling "assets" while assuring themselves of another horrible season upcoming and another high lottery pick - another "asset." At some point you have to actually start doing something, but at least they have a clear plan. It may not work - the Royals are 4.5 out of first place in a bad division and are just 2 games over .500 - but at least it's a plan.
- Sadly, nobody really screwed up their draft which, along with the lack of any real meaningful trades, made it a very boring night. The closest thing to a screw up was the Raptors taking Bruno Caboclo at #20, but I can't pretend I know who he is or if he's any good, I just know he wasn't projected as a first rounder. Their GM seems to pretty much know what he's doing and #20 is a crapshoot anyway, so whatever. Plus who cares? It's Canada.
- Can't believe Bill Simmons is allowed to be such a raging homer on TV. I know people are human and are going to have allegiances, but when somebody like Jalen Rose pulls for Michigan guys he does it in an understated, human way. Simmons is a complete spaz who belongs on a couch watching the draft. Did you see his eye roll when the Hornets traded Napier to the Heat? I don't know, maybe I'm being oversensitive but it just bugs me. Plus when he's on site he can't do his running draft diary, which was always a good time back when he was actually a writer - something he's good at.
- After watching the Spurs dismantle the Heat after coming out of the supremely difficult Western Conference, you'd think teams might take a look at the Spurs business model and try to emulate them. Maybe draft some high basketball IQ guys who will buy into the team concept, pass well, and can shoot. Two guys who fit that model perfectly fell to the end of the first round, both who would be perfect for the Spurs in Kyle Anderson and Cleanthony Early. The Spurs went Anderson, and the Knicks were lucky enough to get Early in the second round (Early could end up the steal of the draft - mark it down). Anderson's going to thrive in San Antonio.
- If you read ESPN too much, you've probably stumbled across John Hollinger's prospect ranking formulas, which generally do a pretty decent job of projecting future value of incoming players in the NBA draft. Hollinger now works for Memphis, but Kevin Pelton still runs the same column and I'm assuming uses the same formulas, or at least very similar maybe with some of his own tweaks. Memphis took Jordan Adams at #22 in a bit of a surprise, then traded a 2016 first round pick to get an early second rounder from Utah to take Jarnell Stokes. Looking at Pelton's column, Adams ranks fifth and Stokes ranks twelfth. Interesting. Last season they didn't have a first rounder, but at pick #41 took Jamaal Franklin, who ranked 21st using Pelton's formula. Seems like you could get a pretty good handle on what Memphis is thinking just by checking out Pelton's column before the draft. I have no idea what you'd do with that information, but I'm going to figure out how to use it for gambling.
- Congratulations to Khem Birch, Chane Behanan, Jabari Brown, Jahii Carson, Alex Kirk, James Michael McAdoo, LaQuinton Ross, Jakarr Sampson, and Roscoe Smith - your early draft entrants who went unpicked. Wait, not congratulations. The other thing. When is the NBDL draft? I bet Carson goes first.
- Did you notice the Charlotte Hornets are starting to do some good things? I mean, a lot of it was luck having Noah Vonleh slip to them and then having PJ Hairston slip to them, but it could get interesting. The talk was they needed a shooter bad and would be very happy to get either Stauskas or McDermott, but then Vonleh was sitting there and they did the smart move, shocking in the NBA I know, and took a potential star in him over getting the shooter they needed in McDermott. Then they were lucky enough to snag Hairston, a great shooter (potentially) and picked up a couple picks from Miami in the process because they were so hot to trot for Napier. So now the Hornets look like this: Kemba/G. Henderson or Hairston/MKG/Vonleh/Al Jefferson.
Jefferson and Vonleh should compliment each other well since Vonleh can do perimeter/high post stuff despite Crean's strategy of never giving him the ball, and Hairston can help open things up since neither Henderson or MKG can shoot. Then they still have Cody Zeller who I haven't given up on, especially since he and Vonleh can talk about how much Crean sucks. Plus they're in the East. I mean it's not great or anything, but at least they're moving in the right direction. Seriously I'm realizing how screwed up the Wolves are since I seem to be totally impressed by any team that seems to have a plan.
- The team I'm not sure has a plan is the Sacramento Kings, and I think it's been that way for a while. They drafted Stauskas the year after drafting Ben McLemore the year after drafting Jimmer Fredette, who is now a Bull. Meanwhile their starting PF is currently Derrick Williams, who did not improve with a change of scenery, and they're paying a lot of money to Rudy Gay (who did, to be fair, play a lot better once he got out of Toronto). Their point guard is Isaiah Thomas, who is a restricted free agent and they're almost going to have to match any offer because their other point guard is Ray McCallum, who I like, but I wouldn't exactly hand the car keys too. Add in their best player is DeMarcus Cousins, who has been a model citizen but has the potential to explode if things keep going shitty, and ti's looking like they will. It's at least comforting to know there's a team that's a mess besides the Wolves. Then again, Cousins hasn't demanded a trade while the GM decides he's just going to stick with him and hope everything turns up sunshine and lollipops. Stupid NBA.
- So to sum up, I hate this draft for the Wolves, but I understand why they did it. I don't expect it to workout, but I'm hopeful. I also desperately want this Kevin Love trade to happen so I can move on and start figuring out how to fix the team, rather than having zero clue where they're going. I mean, you need an entirely different mindset and strategy if if you trade him to Golden State than if you trade him to Boston, and a whole new plan if you trade him to Denver (please god no don't do this). Let's get on with it already, ladies.
- First, you have to start with the hometown 9, and though I don't particularly like the Wolves' draft I can't really blast them either because I understand their thought process. Adding Zach LaVine and Glenn Robinson 3 certainly increases the athletic ability of the team, even if neither put up primo college stats or have, you know, skills. I also think Robinson's athleticism is overrated, and given that he doesn't really have a true NBA position and has a tendency to not try real hard all the time I'm not very optimistic with that pick. LaVine has more potential, and everything I'm reading says he could be one of the top 5-10 players out of this draft, and unlike Aaron Gordon, who sucks at basketball, he does have some skills to go along with that athletic ability. I know potential is potential until something actually happens, but the Wolves have to hit on something at some point, right?
- The Sixers are starting to remind me of the Kansas City Royals. Remember when the Royals had all those top prospects and everybody said in 3 years they'd be great, including myself? Sixers are giving off that vibe, and last night they took Joel Embiid, who is likely at least a year away, and Dario Saric, who will probably stick in Turkey for a couple of years. They also got back a first round pick they had given to the Magic to help facilitate the Dwight Howard trade. Basically they're stockpiling "assets" while assuring themselves of another horrible season upcoming and another high lottery pick - another "asset." At some point you have to actually start doing something, but at least they have a clear plan. It may not work - the Royals are 4.5 out of first place in a bad division and are just 2 games over .500 - but at least it's a plan.
- Sadly, nobody really screwed up their draft which, along with the lack of any real meaningful trades, made it a very boring night. The closest thing to a screw up was the Raptors taking Bruno Caboclo at #20, but I can't pretend I know who he is or if he's any good, I just know he wasn't projected as a first rounder. Their GM seems to pretty much know what he's doing and #20 is a crapshoot anyway, so whatever. Plus who cares? It's Canada.
- Can't believe Bill Simmons is allowed to be such a raging homer on TV. I know people are human and are going to have allegiances, but when somebody like Jalen Rose pulls for Michigan guys he does it in an understated, human way. Simmons is a complete spaz who belongs on a couch watching the draft. Did you see his eye roll when the Hornets traded Napier to the Heat? I don't know, maybe I'm being oversensitive but it just bugs me. Plus when he's on site he can't do his running draft diary, which was always a good time back when he was actually a writer - something he's good at.
- After watching the Spurs dismantle the Heat after coming out of the supremely difficult Western Conference, you'd think teams might take a look at the Spurs business model and try to emulate them. Maybe draft some high basketball IQ guys who will buy into the team concept, pass well, and can shoot. Two guys who fit that model perfectly fell to the end of the first round, both who would be perfect for the Spurs in Kyle Anderson and Cleanthony Early. The Spurs went Anderson, and the Knicks were lucky enough to get Early in the second round (Early could end up the steal of the draft - mark it down). Anderson's going to thrive in San Antonio.
- If you read ESPN too much, you've probably stumbled across John Hollinger's prospect ranking formulas, which generally do a pretty decent job of projecting future value of incoming players in the NBA draft. Hollinger now works for Memphis, but Kevin Pelton still runs the same column and I'm assuming uses the same formulas, or at least very similar maybe with some of his own tweaks. Memphis took Jordan Adams at #22 in a bit of a surprise, then traded a 2016 first round pick to get an early second rounder from Utah to take Jarnell Stokes. Looking at Pelton's column, Adams ranks fifth and Stokes ranks twelfth. Interesting. Last season they didn't have a first rounder, but at pick #41 took Jamaal Franklin, who ranked 21st using Pelton's formula. Seems like you could get a pretty good handle on what Memphis is thinking just by checking out Pelton's column before the draft. I have no idea what you'd do with that information, but I'm going to figure out how to use it for gambling.
- Congratulations to Khem Birch, Chane Behanan, Jabari Brown, Jahii Carson, Alex Kirk, James Michael McAdoo, LaQuinton Ross, Jakarr Sampson, and Roscoe Smith - your early draft entrants who went unpicked. Wait, not congratulations. The other thing. When is the NBDL draft? I bet Carson goes first.
- Did you notice the Charlotte Hornets are starting to do some good things? I mean, a lot of it was luck having Noah Vonleh slip to them and then having PJ Hairston slip to them, but it could get interesting. The talk was they needed a shooter bad and would be very happy to get either Stauskas or McDermott, but then Vonleh was sitting there and they did the smart move, shocking in the NBA I know, and took a potential star in him over getting the shooter they needed in McDermott. Then they were lucky enough to snag Hairston, a great shooter (potentially) and picked up a couple picks from Miami in the process because they were so hot to trot for Napier. So now the Hornets look like this: Kemba/G. Henderson or Hairston/MKG/Vonleh/Al Jefferson.
Jefferson and Vonleh should compliment each other well since Vonleh can do perimeter/high post stuff despite Crean's strategy of never giving him the ball, and Hairston can help open things up since neither Henderson or MKG can shoot. Then they still have Cody Zeller who I haven't given up on, especially since he and Vonleh can talk about how much Crean sucks. Plus they're in the East. I mean it's not great or anything, but at least they're moving in the right direction. Seriously I'm realizing how screwed up the Wolves are since I seem to be totally impressed by any team that seems to have a plan.
- The team I'm not sure has a plan is the Sacramento Kings, and I think it's been that way for a while. They drafted Stauskas the year after drafting Ben McLemore the year after drafting Jimmer Fredette, who is now a Bull. Meanwhile their starting PF is currently Derrick Williams, who did not improve with a change of scenery, and they're paying a lot of money to Rudy Gay (who did, to be fair, play a lot better once he got out of Toronto). Their point guard is Isaiah Thomas, who is a restricted free agent and they're almost going to have to match any offer because their other point guard is Ray McCallum, who I like, but I wouldn't exactly hand the car keys too. Add in their best player is DeMarcus Cousins, who has been a model citizen but has the potential to explode if things keep going shitty, and ti's looking like they will. It's at least comforting to know there's a team that's a mess besides the Wolves. Then again, Cousins hasn't demanded a trade while the GM decides he's just going to stick with him and hope everything turns up sunshine and lollipops. Stupid NBA.
- So to sum up, I hate this draft for the Wolves, but I understand why they did it. I don't expect it to workout, but I'm hopeful. I also desperately want this Kevin Love trade to happen so I can move on and start figuring out how to fix the team, rather than having zero clue where they're going. I mean, you need an entirely different mindset and strategy if if you trade him to Golden State than if you trade him to Boston, and a whole new plan if you trade him to Denver (please god no don't do this). Let's get on with it already, ladies.
Thursday, June 26, 2014
2014 NBA Draft Live Blog
Hurray! Live Blog! This draft could get absolutely crazy, or at least I hope so. Seems like most drafts that are supposed to be nuts end up being snoozers, but there's so much potential for the crazy here I can't believe nothing interesting will happen.
As with just about anything, you can bet on a ton of draft related stuff. Because you can bet on it, I did. Here's what I have tonight:
Joel Embiid draft position over 5 (small)
Tyler Ennis draft position over 18.5 (small)
Marcus Smart draft position over 5.5 (normal bet)
Shabazz Napier draft position under 25.5 (normal)
Total seniors taken in first round over 2.5 (extra super big bet)
I also have a combination of bets where I win a normal amount if Parker goes first but don't lose anything if Wiggins go first. It's from a combination of an early bet at great odds that suddenly looked like a bad bet but an opportunity to hedge out of a lot of it presented itself. It's complicated and you're definitely not smart enough to understand.
Anyway, hopefully something happens with Love tonight or soon at least. I think if they can get Golden State to include Harrison Barnes that's a pretty good trade. Remember Barnes averaged 16 points and 6 rebounds per game in 12 postseason games in 2012-2013. Then the Warriors traded for Andre Iguodala and his development was completely blocked. If you can get Klay Thompson, Harrison Barnes, and David Lee you're acquiring three starters, two of whom could have significant upside and at a minimum you're getting a second tier star in Thompson, a solid starter in Lee, and at least a rotation guy in Barnes (though I think he'll be better than this). I dunno, I take it for sure, especially if you can shed either Kevin Martin or Chase Budinger's contract while you're at it.
Anyway, on to the draft.
- We got a new cat today. Murray. 3 years old and Orange and super mellow. Daughter (age 6) cried tears of joy when we brought him home. Took him less than three hours to get stuck in the crawl space in the basement and, despite being I assured that I would have to do zero work if we got a cat, guess who got to spend 40 minutes getting him out and then figuring out how to block it off so he couldn't get out. Yep.
- Does anyone ever pick in this draft?
- Cavs go with Andrew Wiggins. Kind of a mild surprise since Cleveland is Cleveland and I could see them doing something insane like picking Dante Exum.
- How fast does Milwaukee get this pick in? It should take about 4 seconds. Like you.
- Indeed it's Jabari. What are the odds going to be on him winning ROY? He's got to be an overwhelming favorite as the most NBA ready talent and going somewhere he'll immediately become the #1 option. He will be the top option there, right? I'll admit, I have trouble coming up with Bucks. I think they have Larry Sanders and maybe Brandon Jennings. Or is he on the Pistons now? Wow. This is embarrassing. Jon Leuer maybe? Probably some foreign guys. So yeah, ROY. For a lot of monies.
- Third pick here for Philly is the most interesting one. Go with Embiid and take that risk or take a safer player (or somewhere in between like Exum)? I'd go with Embiid as the Sixers since they aren't going to be anywhere near contending for at least another couple years, why not swing for the fences?
- Boom. It is Embiid. No doubt about, most talented guy in the draft. A seven footer with the athleticism of a swingman who keeps developing more offensive abilities, including a mid-range jumper mid-season. Unreal. IF he stays healthy, and yes that's clearly become a monster IF, he's going to be a monster.
- Magic go with Aaron Gordon at #4. Gross, and what horrid night for Orlando. First they trade Aaron Afflalo for some crappy guard with a frenchy name and almost the last pick of the draft, now they take a guy with absolutely no real basketball skills when there were two much better forwards (Vonleh and Randle) available. Gross.
- Utah travels back in time to when high school kids were drafted in the lottery despite having no real game tape against proper competition and takes Dante Exum. Look, maybe he'll work out - KG, Kobe, and Lebron certainly did, but thanks to Jon Bender, Kwame Brown, and Kovortney Barber I wouldn't touch him with so many semi-proven good players still on the board. And this means the Lakers will get either Vonleh or Randle. Stupid Lakers.
- Exum's accent makes him sound like a dandy.
- Celtics go with Marcus Smart, and this has to mean they're trading Rondo, right? They're practically the same player with the ball, in that their strength is their strength when it comes to getting to the rim to either score, get fouled, or dish. Both are good rebounders for guards, both are excellent defenders, and neither can shoot outside. I had heard earlier that Rondo might be on the move to Sacramento for #8, and now that sounds more likely to me than it did earlier today.
- Vonleh or Randle is one hell of a tough decision. It's like choosing between Knob Creek and Woodford Reserve. I LOVE YOU BOTH.
- I think how they can't stop talking about how Smart is so competitive. Sure, but he's kind of an asshole too and he still can't shoot.
- Randle is the choice. `If Sacramento goes Vonleh and that trade with the Celtics is real a Smart/Vonleh draft is a great one for Boston. Oh, and the cat's in the ceiling somehow. Time to visit my good friend liquor.
- Whoa, Nik Stauskas. Wasn't expecting this. Would Boston want to reload with Smart/Stauskas? Would the Kings really want Stauskas when they took Ben McLemore last year? Well nothing really fun has happened yet, but there are enough questions about this first round that there's got to be some wheels turning.
- Hornets, who have been basically been linked to Doug McDermott by everyone, do the smart thing with Vonleh having slipped and take him. He's going to be a star.
- Interviewer guy to Vonleh, "How important was Tom Crean in your development." Give Vonleh and incredible amount of credit for not just plain bursting out laughing.
- Philly goes Elfrid Payton at #10, which is a horrible pick and also doesn't make a whole lot of sense because he's a point guard and the Sixers have rookie of the year Michael Carter-Williams and neither one of them can shoot. Both are good defenders, but neither has a whole lot of strength and they could both just get brutalized by stronger 2s. I feel like this is another trade waiting to be announced. And never, ever trust a player who shoots up draft boards late for no real reason. It never works. Probably.
- Here comes Denver, a pick that has been rumored to be heading to the Wolves along with Wilson Chandler and Kenneth Faried for Kevin Love and if that happened I would kill myself.
- Nugs take McDermott. Now I'll double kill myself if that trade happens. 1 senior off the board. I need three to go. That's seriously a really big bet.
- There you go, McDermott traded to Chicago for #16 and #19. Let the trade waters flow.
- The Magic take Dario Saric from Croatia to go with trading Afflalo for nothing and Aaron Gordon. Oof. This is like watching Dawger at a fantasy football draft.
- I suppose that means the Wolves are up. I have very little interest in anyone here. Gary Harris is probably the most ready. Adreian Payne is interesting. Zach LaVine is Bilas's best available and even though I think he has bust written all over him I suppose at this point he also has the most upside of anyone available. I dunno. I am strangely ambivalent, but that's probably because I know the Love trade is coming up at some point and that's way more interesting.
- Zach LaVine it is. Any time you can get a point guard who was a backup at UCLA and averaged more rebounds than assists you have to do it.
- Sixers and Magic trade Saric for Payton. One time I gave this bum a bag of trash and he gave me back his bag of trash.
- Suns go with T.J. Warren. This either going to be an absolute steal or a huge bust. Warren is a monster scorer, but he doesn't really look the part. He has a goofy looking jumper and he scores a ton of his points on weird shots that go in because he can just do it no matter how off balance or out of rhythm. He should actually do quite well in Phoenix.
- Atlanta takes Adreian Payne (senior #2), which means we get to hear that whole story about him and that little girl again. Yes, it's a great story, but does it make me a bad person if I'm bored hearing about it? Actually I don't care.
- The Magic should have their two picks, Aaron Gordon and Elfried Payton play horse. Could last until infinity.
- Denver takes some foreigner from Bosnia whose name I don't feel like typing, Celtics go with James Young (who I like a lot, mostly because he's a lefty, he got a lot better last season when he decided to be more than a jump shooter), and the Suns take Tyler Ennis to go with T.J. Warren. Tyler Ennis goes #18. I had the over 18.5. Dammit.
- Vance Worley with 7 innings of 1 run ball tonight, running his ERA to 1.74 in 3 starts with the Pirates. It's like the Twins coaches somehow actually wreck players. I know I've joked about it before, but I think maybe it's time to stop joking about it. They're doing something very wrong over there.
- I'm strangely super bored by this draft. Nuggets take Gary Harris, which means Denver has acquired both Aaron Afflalo and Gary Harris, which is redundant.
- Raptors select some buy from Brazil who nobody has ever heard of. I'm bailing on this draft as soon as Napier goes.
- Jesus Christ with this cat stuff. Now my son, who is kind of scared of everything, is freaking out if the cat goes in his room while he's trying to fall asleep. But he also cries if we shut his door because he likes to sleep with it open. Remember back when I started this blog and I was basically just a drunk stupid kid? Growing up and having to take care of things like kids sucks sometimes. I'm out boys. Pray for Shabazz Napier.
As with just about anything, you can bet on a ton of draft related stuff. Because you can bet on it, I did. Here's what I have tonight:
Joel Embiid draft position over 5 (small)
Tyler Ennis draft position over 18.5 (small)
Marcus Smart draft position over 5.5 (normal bet)
Shabazz Napier draft position under 25.5 (normal)
Total seniors taken in first round over 2.5 (extra super big bet)
I also have a combination of bets where I win a normal amount if Parker goes first but don't lose anything if Wiggins go first. It's from a combination of an early bet at great odds that suddenly looked like a bad bet but an opportunity to hedge out of a lot of it presented itself. It's complicated and you're definitely not smart enough to understand.
Anyway, hopefully something happens with Love tonight or soon at least. I think if they can get Golden State to include Harrison Barnes that's a pretty good trade. Remember Barnes averaged 16 points and 6 rebounds per game in 12 postseason games in 2012-2013. Then the Warriors traded for Andre Iguodala and his development was completely blocked. If you can get Klay Thompson, Harrison Barnes, and David Lee you're acquiring three starters, two of whom could have significant upside and at a minimum you're getting a second tier star in Thompson, a solid starter in Lee, and at least a rotation guy in Barnes (though I think he'll be better than this). I dunno, I take it for sure, especially if you can shed either Kevin Martin or Chase Budinger's contract while you're at it.
Anyway, on to the draft.
- We got a new cat today. Murray. 3 years old and Orange and super mellow. Daughter (age 6) cried tears of joy when we brought him home. Took him less than three hours to get stuck in the crawl space in the basement and, despite being I assured that I would have to do zero work if we got a cat, guess who got to spend 40 minutes getting him out and then figuring out how to block it off so he couldn't get out. Yep.
- Does anyone ever pick in this draft?
- Cavs go with Andrew Wiggins. Kind of a mild surprise since Cleveland is Cleveland and I could see them doing something insane like picking Dante Exum.
- How fast does Milwaukee get this pick in? It should take about 4 seconds. Like you.
- Indeed it's Jabari. What are the odds going to be on him winning ROY? He's got to be an overwhelming favorite as the most NBA ready talent and going somewhere he'll immediately become the #1 option. He will be the top option there, right? I'll admit, I have trouble coming up with Bucks. I think they have Larry Sanders and maybe Brandon Jennings. Or is he on the Pistons now? Wow. This is embarrassing. Jon Leuer maybe? Probably some foreign guys. So yeah, ROY. For a lot of monies.
- Third pick here for Philly is the most interesting one. Go with Embiid and take that risk or take a safer player (or somewhere in between like Exum)? I'd go with Embiid as the Sixers since they aren't going to be anywhere near contending for at least another couple years, why not swing for the fences?
- Boom. It is Embiid. No doubt about, most talented guy in the draft. A seven footer with the athleticism of a swingman who keeps developing more offensive abilities, including a mid-range jumper mid-season. Unreal. IF he stays healthy, and yes that's clearly become a monster IF, he's going to be a monster.
- Magic go with Aaron Gordon at #4. Gross, and what horrid night for Orlando. First they trade Aaron Afflalo for some crappy guard with a frenchy name and almost the last pick of the draft, now they take a guy with absolutely no real basketball skills when there were two much better forwards (Vonleh and Randle) available. Gross.
- Utah travels back in time to when high school kids were drafted in the lottery despite having no real game tape against proper competition and takes Dante Exum. Look, maybe he'll work out - KG, Kobe, and Lebron certainly did, but thanks to Jon Bender, Kwame Brown, and Kovortney Barber I wouldn't touch him with so many semi-proven good players still on the board. And this means the Lakers will get either Vonleh or Randle. Stupid Lakers.
- Exum's accent makes him sound like a dandy.
- Celtics go with Marcus Smart, and this has to mean they're trading Rondo, right? They're practically the same player with the ball, in that their strength is their strength when it comes to getting to the rim to either score, get fouled, or dish. Both are good rebounders for guards, both are excellent defenders, and neither can shoot outside. I had heard earlier that Rondo might be on the move to Sacramento for #8, and now that sounds more likely to me than it did earlier today.
- Vonleh or Randle is one hell of a tough decision. It's like choosing between Knob Creek and Woodford Reserve. I LOVE YOU BOTH.
- I think how they can't stop talking about how Smart is so competitive. Sure, but he's kind of an asshole too and he still can't shoot.
- Randle is the choice. `If Sacramento goes Vonleh and that trade with the Celtics is real a Smart/Vonleh draft is a great one for Boston. Oh, and the cat's in the ceiling somehow. Time to visit my good friend liquor.
- Whoa, Nik Stauskas. Wasn't expecting this. Would Boston want to reload with Smart/Stauskas? Would the Kings really want Stauskas when they took Ben McLemore last year? Well nothing really fun has happened yet, but there are enough questions about this first round that there's got to be some wheels turning.
- Hornets, who have been basically been linked to Doug McDermott by everyone, do the smart thing with Vonleh having slipped and take him. He's going to be a star.
- Interviewer guy to Vonleh, "How important was Tom Crean in your development." Give Vonleh and incredible amount of credit for not just plain bursting out laughing.
- Philly goes Elfrid Payton at #10, which is a horrible pick and also doesn't make a whole lot of sense because he's a point guard and the Sixers have rookie of the year Michael Carter-Williams and neither one of them can shoot. Both are good defenders, but neither has a whole lot of strength and they could both just get brutalized by stronger 2s. I feel like this is another trade waiting to be announced. And never, ever trust a player who shoots up draft boards late for no real reason. It never works. Probably.
- Here comes Denver, a pick that has been rumored to be heading to the Wolves along with Wilson Chandler and Kenneth Faried for Kevin Love and if that happened I would kill myself.
- Nugs take McDermott. Now I'll double kill myself if that trade happens. 1 senior off the board. I need three to go. That's seriously a really big bet.
- There you go, McDermott traded to Chicago for #16 and #19. Let the trade waters flow.
- The Magic take Dario Saric from Croatia to go with trading Afflalo for nothing and Aaron Gordon. Oof. This is like watching Dawger at a fantasy football draft.
- I suppose that means the Wolves are up. I have very little interest in anyone here. Gary Harris is probably the most ready. Adreian Payne is interesting. Zach LaVine is Bilas's best available and even though I think he has bust written all over him I suppose at this point he also has the most upside of anyone available. I dunno. I am strangely ambivalent, but that's probably because I know the Love trade is coming up at some point and that's way more interesting.
- Zach LaVine it is. Any time you can get a point guard who was a backup at UCLA and averaged more rebounds than assists you have to do it.
- Sixers and Magic trade Saric for Payton. One time I gave this bum a bag of trash and he gave me back his bag of trash.
- Suns go with T.J. Warren. This either going to be an absolute steal or a huge bust. Warren is a monster scorer, but he doesn't really look the part. He has a goofy looking jumper and he scores a ton of his points on weird shots that go in because he can just do it no matter how off balance or out of rhythm. He should actually do quite well in Phoenix.
- Atlanta takes Adreian Payne (senior #2), which means we get to hear that whole story about him and that little girl again. Yes, it's a great story, but does it make me a bad person if I'm bored hearing about it? Actually I don't care.
- The Magic should have their two picks, Aaron Gordon and Elfried Payton play horse. Could last until infinity.
- Denver takes some foreigner from Bosnia whose name I don't feel like typing, Celtics go with James Young (who I like a lot, mostly because he's a lefty, he got a lot better last season when he decided to be more than a jump shooter), and the Suns take Tyler Ennis to go with T.J. Warren. Tyler Ennis goes #18. I had the over 18.5. Dammit.
- Vance Worley with 7 innings of 1 run ball tonight, running his ERA to 1.74 in 3 starts with the Pirates. It's like the Twins coaches somehow actually wreck players. I know I've joked about it before, but I think maybe it's time to stop joking about it. They're doing something very wrong over there.
- I'm strangely super bored by this draft. Nuggets take Gary Harris, which means Denver has acquired both Aaron Afflalo and Gary Harris, which is redundant.
- Raptors select some buy from Brazil who nobody has ever heard of. I'm bailing on this draft as soon as Napier goes.
- Jesus Christ with this cat stuff. Now my son, who is kind of scared of everything, is freaking out if the cat goes in his room while he's trying to fall asleep. But he also cries if we shut his door because he likes to sleep with it open. Remember back when I started this blog and I was basically just a drunk stupid kid? Growing up and having to take care of things like kids sucks sometimes. I'm out boys. Pray for Shabazz Napier.
Tuesday, June 24, 2014
Tuesday Talkers
I know, I know, everybody hates me. It's been almost two weeks since my last post and I have no excuses. Sometimes when you don't write you get in the habit of not writing and sometimes that feels good. But there is an awful lot going on in the sports world, and I have opinions on some of it, so it's time to get back in that saddle and write not very informative, unfunny filler for you to read while you wait for your favorite message board to refresh with new messages.
- So much NBA going on. Lebron opts out. Carmelo opts out. Love trade speculation. NBA draft. It's actually really fun. I'll try to write this in some kind of coherent narrative, but I make no promises.
To start, I can't believe the Warriors balked at the Love trade because they didn't want to trade Klay Thompson. I like Thompson, and he's one of the top 2-guards in the league, but a lineup of Curry/Martin/Iguodala/Love/Bogut is a definite contender, more so than what they have now. On the flip side, I would have been ok with the Wolves getting Thompson as the center piece of a deal. He's the #2 guy in Golden State, but would have been #1 here and who knows if he would thrive or not, but it's possible. Plus, assuming Flip is dead set on not bottoming out, a lineup of Rubio/Thompson/Barnes (if they got him too)/Lee/Pekovic could be a playoff team, and you're giving Barnes room to sink or swim rather than be stuck in a logjam at the wing position the Warriors had. Personally I'd prefer bottoming out and grabbing as many picks as possible, and that's why things are getting more and more interesting.
Lebron opted out of his deal today, and with him and Carmelo both on the market teams are maneuvering like crazy to either clear cap space, build a roster that would look good to either/both of them, or both which means we could see some crazy trades and picks flying around before Thursday's draft. One good way a team could entice either of them would be to have another Top 10 player on board (or more) and that makes Kevin Love that much more attractive. Cleveland, or at least the media, seem to think there's a realistic chance Lebron might come home, and they have the pieces to put something together with that first overall pick, Dion Waiters (who by all accounts doesn't get along with Kyrie Irving), and Tristan Thompson. The Bulls are in the mix as well, offering Tony Snell, Taj Gibson, and the #16 and #19 in the draft. Plus the Celtics still have one million picks they can throw at the Wolves. I think I'd prefer the Cavs trade to get the #1, then the Celtics, and then the Bulls. If they trade with Chicago hopefully they package 2 or 3 of those picks to get closer to the top.
Of course, it all could be for nothing since I think it's mostly likely Lebron and the other two opt out and restructure their deals to reduce the cap number and get at least one more competent player in place. Most likely that's the plan, but it's curious they didn't announce their opt outs at the same time. Pay attention, because Dwyane Wade is poised to lose the most money if he opts out, so if he opts in then game on. Until then I'd assume Lebron's back to the Heat. Carmelo I'm guessing will be a Bull.
- Speaking of the NBA draft, let's talk about the NBA draft. I think your steals are going to be Noah Vonleh (criminally underutilized in college, freak athlete, great post-up game and good perimeter game for his size), Julius Randle (already an NBA ready rebounder with a good enough offensive game that should develop), Adreian Payne (already has the skills to be a stretch 4 and could eventually be an elite defender), Tyler Ennis (might not end up a big time scorer, but should be an excellent point guard for a long time), Cleanthony Early (could step in and start for most teams Day 1), and Jerami Grant (2nd round steal). Busts look like Dante Exum (top 4 pick? Please), Aaron Gordon (has absolutely zero skill beyond athleticism), Elfrid Payton (will get abused), Zach LaVine (another athlete light on game skills), Rodney Hood (disappeared way to many times) and Mitch McGary (no clue why anybody would take him first round).
It's hard to say who I'd want the Wolves to end up with since who knows what the roster will look like by time they pick (or after), but I'd go for either of the Michigan State guys at #13. They could end up with Early and Grant in the 2nd round and that'd make me happy. Should be a fun draft no matter what goes down. I might even live blog this bad boy. That way we have more proof of how stupid I am like when I said Kawhi Leonard would be terrible or when I said Stephen Curry would be terrible or when I said Xavier Henry would be a sleeper or when I said Earl Clark could be a star.
- Man I enjoy the hell out of the World Cup. Every four years I completely devour it, convince myself I'm going to become a soccer guy, watch 5 minutes of EPL, and then bail until the next World Cup. The combination of the best in the World, the nation vs. nation thing, and the gambling make this such a fun time. This year I also got into a WC pool to make every game more interesting, but I made the mistake of picking Spain to win the whole thing so I'm likely dead. Sadly, I'm tied for second so far too. Stupid la roja. Obviously Brazil and Argentina remain the two big favorites, but I like Belgium to give it a hell of a run. Don't sleep on Mexico, either, and Colombia's been a buzz saw.
Anyway, I won't pretend to actually know enough about soccer to really analyze that tying goal in the Portugal/USA game, but man, what a gut punch. I mean, not really because as a Minnesota sports fan I was completely expecting it, but for fans of other sports teams that probably really hurt. The friends of mine who really know soccer tell me I should be mad at Michael Bradley, so picture me shaking my fist and looking really mad right now. Maybe swearing a little.
- I owe one of the longest tenured and consistent readers of this stupid blog an apology - Dawger, I'm sorry. I'm sorry I doubted Brian Dozier and your opinion of Brian Dozier. I said he was garbage, you said he was good, and now I am firmly down on the side of good. You were right, I was wrong. You're smart, I'm dumb. You're good looking, I am not attractive.
- Basketball futures are out for the NCAA Champion, and you may recall that I advised you to take UCONN last year when they were 40-1 and advised taking Louisville two years ago when they were 15-1. Yeah, I'm good. This year my first recommendation is a team that offers significant value at 25-1 (I got them at 33-1). Let's see:
- Jurassic Park 4: Jurassic World. It's real. God I have such a boner.
- I'm not going to update Gopher recruiting news or anything because it's still just way too up in the air, but know that there are a lot of balls in motion right now and I think in the last couple of weeks through the next couple weeks the Gophers are getting 5-6 visits (official and unofficial) from guys who I am pretty sure Pitino would take a verbal from immediately if he could get one. I would really love to snag and early commitment this year. Like tomorrow.
- I saw Carlos Gomez was on the cover of Sports Illustrated recently. Even though it kills me to see him be this good, let me rub a little salt in the womb:
- So much NBA going on. Lebron opts out. Carmelo opts out. Love trade speculation. NBA draft. It's actually really fun. I'll try to write this in some kind of coherent narrative, but I make no promises.
To start, I can't believe the Warriors balked at the Love trade because they didn't want to trade Klay Thompson. I like Thompson, and he's one of the top 2-guards in the league, but a lineup of Curry/Martin/Iguodala/Love/Bogut is a definite contender, more so than what they have now. On the flip side, I would have been ok with the Wolves getting Thompson as the center piece of a deal. He's the #2 guy in Golden State, but would have been #1 here and who knows if he would thrive or not, but it's possible. Plus, assuming Flip is dead set on not bottoming out, a lineup of Rubio/Thompson/Barnes (if they got him too)/Lee/Pekovic could be a playoff team, and you're giving Barnes room to sink or swim rather than be stuck in a logjam at the wing position the Warriors had. Personally I'd prefer bottoming out and grabbing as many picks as possible, and that's why things are getting more and more interesting.
Lebron opted out of his deal today, and with him and Carmelo both on the market teams are maneuvering like crazy to either clear cap space, build a roster that would look good to either/both of them, or both which means we could see some crazy trades and picks flying around before Thursday's draft. One good way a team could entice either of them would be to have another Top 10 player on board (or more) and that makes Kevin Love that much more attractive. Cleveland, or at least the media, seem to think there's a realistic chance Lebron might come home, and they have the pieces to put something together with that first overall pick, Dion Waiters (who by all accounts doesn't get along with Kyrie Irving), and Tristan Thompson. The Bulls are in the mix as well, offering Tony Snell, Taj Gibson, and the #16 and #19 in the draft. Plus the Celtics still have one million picks they can throw at the Wolves. I think I'd prefer the Cavs trade to get the #1, then the Celtics, and then the Bulls. If they trade with Chicago hopefully they package 2 or 3 of those picks to get closer to the top.
Of course, it all could be for nothing since I think it's mostly likely Lebron and the other two opt out and restructure their deals to reduce the cap number and get at least one more competent player in place. Most likely that's the plan, but it's curious they didn't announce their opt outs at the same time. Pay attention, because Dwyane Wade is poised to lose the most money if he opts out, so if he opts in then game on. Until then I'd assume Lebron's back to the Heat. Carmelo I'm guessing will be a Bull.
- Speaking of the NBA draft, let's talk about the NBA draft. I think your steals are going to be Noah Vonleh (criminally underutilized in college, freak athlete, great post-up game and good perimeter game for his size), Julius Randle (already an NBA ready rebounder with a good enough offensive game that should develop), Adreian Payne (already has the skills to be a stretch 4 and could eventually be an elite defender), Tyler Ennis (might not end up a big time scorer, but should be an excellent point guard for a long time), Cleanthony Early (could step in and start for most teams Day 1), and Jerami Grant (2nd round steal). Busts look like Dante Exum (top 4 pick? Please), Aaron Gordon (has absolutely zero skill beyond athleticism), Elfrid Payton (will get abused), Zach LaVine (another athlete light on game skills), Rodney Hood (disappeared way to many times) and Mitch McGary (no clue why anybody would take him first round).
It's hard to say who I'd want the Wolves to end up with since who knows what the roster will look like by time they pick (or after), but I'd go for either of the Michigan State guys at #13. They could end up with Early and Grant in the 2nd round and that'd make me happy. Should be a fun draft no matter what goes down. I might even live blog this bad boy. That way we have more proof of how stupid I am like when I said Kawhi Leonard would be terrible or when I said Stephen Curry would be terrible or when I said Xavier Henry would be a sleeper or when I said Earl Clark could be a star.
- Man I enjoy the hell out of the World Cup. Every four years I completely devour it, convince myself I'm going to become a soccer guy, watch 5 minutes of EPL, and then bail until the next World Cup. The combination of the best in the World, the nation vs. nation thing, and the gambling make this such a fun time. This year I also got into a WC pool to make every game more interesting, but I made the mistake of picking Spain to win the whole thing so I'm likely dead. Sadly, I'm tied for second so far too. Stupid la roja. Obviously Brazil and Argentina remain the two big favorites, but I like Belgium to give it a hell of a run. Don't sleep on Mexico, either, and Colombia's been a buzz saw.
Anyway, I won't pretend to actually know enough about soccer to really analyze that tying goal in the Portugal/USA game, but man, what a gut punch. I mean, not really because as a Minnesota sports fan I was completely expecting it, but for fans of other sports teams that probably really hurt. The friends of mine who really know soccer tell me I should be mad at Michael Bradley, so picture me shaking my fist and looking really mad right now. Maybe swearing a little.
- I owe one of the longest tenured and consistent readers of this stupid blog an apology - Dawger, I'm sorry. I'm sorry I doubted Brian Dozier and your opinion of Brian Dozier. I said he was garbage, you said he was good, and now I am firmly down on the side of good. You were right, I was wrong. You're smart, I'm dumb. You're good looking, I am not attractive.
- Basketball futures are out for the NCAA Champion, and you may recall that I advised you to take UCONN last year when they were 40-1 and advised taking Louisville two years ago when they were 15-1. Yeah, I'm good. This year my first recommendation is a team that offers significant value at 25-1 (I got them at 33-1). Let's see:
- Significant post season run, albeit not in the NCAA Tournament? Check.
- Strong regular season results? Check.
- Nearly every single minute back from last season? Check.
- Impact freshman coming in with a ranking that suggests he's a program changer? Check.
- One of the top transfers coming in who will be immediately eligible? Check.
- Outstanding guard play? Check.
- Elite level head coach? Check.
Figure it out? That's right, the SMU Mustangs. Take a team that won 27 games, finished third in the conference, beat UCONN twice, made the NIT final and basically has everyone back and add in the nation's top ranked incoming freshman in Emmanuel Mudiay and sharp-shooting transfer wing from Xavier Justin Martin and these team definitely has the pieces. Plenty of questions such as how Mudiay and incumbent point guard Nic Moore mesh and if they have enough size, but at 25-1 it's a no brainer.
- Jurassic Park 4: Jurassic World. It's real. God I have such a boner.
- I'm not going to update Gopher recruiting news or anything because it's still just way too up in the air, but know that there are a lot of balls in motion right now and I think in the last couple of weeks through the next couple weeks the Gophers are getting 5-6 visits (official and unofficial) from guys who I am pretty sure Pitino would take a verbal from immediately if he could get one. I would really love to snag and early commitment this year. Like tomorrow.
- I saw Carlos Gomez was on the cover of Sports Illustrated recently. Even though it kills me to see him be this good, let me rub a little salt in the womb:
- Gomez's average of .312 ranks 13th in the majors.
- Gomez's OBP of .377 ranks 22nd, whilie his SLG of .525 ranks 12th.
- That gives him an overall OPS of .902, which ranks 18th.
- His batting alone gives him 18.2 runs above replacement so far this year, which ranks 14th.
- He's also fast and a good base runner, which gives him another 1.5, and his defense is superb giving him another 1.7. After a bunch of other league and position related factors he nets out at 31.7 runs above replacement which translates to 3.4 wins above replacement, which ranks 6th in the majors.
- Yes, Carlos Gomez has become a tremendous all around player who, according to one metric, is the 6th most valuable in baseball.
- After the trade for J.J. Hardy (defensible) and then the trade away of Hardy (completely indefensible) the Twins ended up with half a season of Hardy and 24.2 innings of terrible relief (1.91 WHIP and 5.47 ERA) from Jim Hoey. Gross.
- Seriously though, you could make a pretty good team out of ex-Twins - better than usual even:
C - Wilson Ramos (.261/.314/.370)
1B - Justin Morneau (.298/.336/.509 with 12 HRs)
2B - Nick Punto (.230/.331/.294)
3B - Danny Valencia (.236/.291/.333 - ok so this isn't the team's strength)
SS - J.J. Hardy (.294/.321/.373)
OF - Carlos Gomez (.312/.377/.525 with 12 HRs and 11 SBs)
OF - Michael Cuddyer (.317/.366/.500 with 5 HRs)
OF - Torii Hunter (.266/.290/.441 with 9 HRs)
DH - David Ortiz (.255/.354/.478 with 17 HRs)
Ok I'm getting a little tired of looking up all these stats, but your rotation would be Francisco Liriano, Matt Garza, R.A. Dickey, and Kyle Lohse with the fifth starter being Kevin Slowey unless I think of somebody else. The bullpen would be ok with Joe Nathan as the closer and a whole mess of guys like I know Pat Neshek is kicking ass this year. Really, I mean, that's a pretty good team. Fill the obvious holes (C, 2b, 3b, fifth starter) with current Twins and make Joe Mauer catch again and you might really have something here. And it really doesn't matter.
- I suppose I could live blog this Twins game, but it's already 5-3 in the top of the second which means this things going way past my bedtime. Adios muchachos.
Wednesday, June 26, 2013
Bill Simmons Talks College Prospects. Oy.
I'm a big fan of Bill Simmons, have been for years. One of his biggest flaws, however, is he never ever watches college basketball outside of the NCAA Tournament, yet when draft time rolls around he likes to talk as if he is actually knowledgeable about the players outside of whatever he has recently read or been told. I will never forget his column where he acted like he was breaking the news that Kevin Durant was awesome at Texas, despite it being mid-season. He also likes to form an opinion and refuse to let anything break it, including facts. With this in mind, I listened to the Simmons/Chad Ford podcast regarding the draft. Here are some highlights.
1. Victor Oladipo's upside is a cross between Alvin Robertson and Joe Dumars. Because he was one of the best interviews Bill Simmons did of the future rookies and said that if he had to play the Heat in South Beach he wouldn't go out to the bars the night before a game.
2. Oladipo could have played in the Spurs/Heat Finals because he tries hard.
3. Otto Porter red flag: doesn't think he'll be able to score in the NBA. Porter, who shot 42% from 3, 41% on jump shots, and 66% in the paint. Also said Porter reminded him of Tayshaun Prince and that's a bad thing despite Prince's career 58.6 win shares, which is the fourth highest total of anybody taken in the 2002 Draft.
4. More Porter: Doesn't think he'll really be able to play defense in the NBA (Porter averaged nearly 2 steals per game, which is a good indicator of the athleticism needed to play defense in the NBA something Chad Ford actually talked about maybe 15 minutes earlier in this same podcast). Also worried that Porter couldn't hit threes even though he hit 42% last year, something Simmons actually acknowledges but shrugs it off because "He only took like 3 a game", which, because this is college and not the NBA, actually ranked 30th most in the conference.
5. This one's actually from Ford, but he said Ben McLemore can't get to the rim. Ben McLemore took 31% of his shots last year at the rim. Outside of Oladipo's freakish 61% that's the highest percent among the guards in this draft. Simmons' take was that McLemore can be a three-point machine. McLemore hit the exact same 42% Otto Porter did. Simmons also thought McLemore was a "sweet kid" and it was a great interview. Sensing a pattern.
6. Alex Len "was pretty impressive when we talked to him" followed by a shit load of nice things about him including "he doesn't have any weaknesses except maybe rebounding." First, rebounding is pretty important for a center, but he's wrong anyway. Second, this is again Simmons not understanding college stats because Len was fourth in the ACC in rebounding (but "just" 7.8 per game). Len's offensive and defensive rebounding percentages are both pretty good, but his overall numbers suffer because he played 26 minutes per game. That would be a much bigger concern for me than the rebounding.
7. Did not like his interview with Shabazz Muhammad and it made him like him less as a draft pick. I actually thought this was unconscious bias, but it turns out he's actively admitting to it. I wonder if he can pick up the fact that he's doing things like trashing Otto Porter's game because he didn't like his interview. I doubt it. Also just said he loved his interview with C.J. McCollum and in the next sentence he could be the next Jason Terry with a downside of a better Eddie House. Now I like McCollum, but his downside is a whole hell of a lot worse than a better Eddie House. Sorry if he's super likable.
Actually not as terrible as I was expecting or as he's been in the past. The whole "interview" thing was a nice wrinkle that kept me entertained in the absence of more uninformed opinions. I would say I hope you enjoyed reading this as much as I enjoyed listening to the podcast, but that would be a lie because I promise you I don't care.
1. Victor Oladipo's upside is a cross between Alvin Robertson and Joe Dumars. Because he was one of the best interviews Bill Simmons did of the future rookies and said that if he had to play the Heat in South Beach he wouldn't go out to the bars the night before a game.
2. Oladipo could have played in the Spurs/Heat Finals because he tries hard.
3. Otto Porter red flag: doesn't think he'll be able to score in the NBA. Porter, who shot 42% from 3, 41% on jump shots, and 66% in the paint. Also said Porter reminded him of Tayshaun Prince and that's a bad thing despite Prince's career 58.6 win shares, which is the fourth highest total of anybody taken in the 2002 Draft.
4. More Porter: Doesn't think he'll really be able to play defense in the NBA (Porter averaged nearly 2 steals per game, which is a good indicator of the athleticism needed to play defense in the NBA something Chad Ford actually talked about maybe 15 minutes earlier in this same podcast). Also worried that Porter couldn't hit threes even though he hit 42% last year, something Simmons actually acknowledges but shrugs it off because "He only took like 3 a game", which, because this is college and not the NBA, actually ranked 30th most in the conference.
5. This one's actually from Ford, but he said Ben McLemore can't get to the rim. Ben McLemore took 31% of his shots last year at the rim. Outside of Oladipo's freakish 61% that's the highest percent among the guards in this draft. Simmons' take was that McLemore can be a three-point machine. McLemore hit the exact same 42% Otto Porter did. Simmons also thought McLemore was a "sweet kid" and it was a great interview. Sensing a pattern.
6. Alex Len "was pretty impressive when we talked to him" followed by a shit load of nice things about him including "he doesn't have any weaknesses except maybe rebounding." First, rebounding is pretty important for a center, but he's wrong anyway. Second, this is again Simmons not understanding college stats because Len was fourth in the ACC in rebounding (but "just" 7.8 per game). Len's offensive and defensive rebounding percentages are both pretty good, but his overall numbers suffer because he played 26 minutes per game. That would be a much bigger concern for me than the rebounding.
7. Did not like his interview with Shabazz Muhammad and it made him like him less as a draft pick. I actually thought this was unconscious bias, but it turns out he's actively admitting to it. I wonder if he can pick up the fact that he's doing things like trashing Otto Porter's game because he didn't like his interview. I doubt it. Also just said he loved his interview with C.J. McCollum and in the next sentence he could be the next Jason Terry with a downside of a better Eddie House. Now I like McCollum, but his downside is a whole hell of a lot worse than a better Eddie House. Sorry if he's super likable.
Actually not as terrible as I was expecting or as he's been in the past. The whole "interview" thing was a nice wrinkle that kept me entertained in the absence of more uninformed opinions. I would say I hope you enjoyed reading this as much as I enjoyed listening to the podcast, but that would be a lie because I promise you I don't care.
Tuesday, June 25, 2013
NBA Draft Rumors Heating Up
With just two days remaining before the NBA draft the rumors are running wild like DWG on the softball basepaths. Even the #1 overall pick is up for grabs. Many NBA "insiders" and "unnamed sources" and even named sources including Flip Saunders have been throwing chum in the water. Here are a few of the interesting storylines that are developing...
What do the Cavs do at #1?
The Cavs have been linked with Ben McLemore, Nerlens Noel, Alex Len and even Trey Burke and Victor Oladipo. They've also been involved in some talks about trading the pick with ESPN reporting the Thunder, Blazers and our Wolves have shown interest.
The Cavs have quality players at the PG (Irving), SG (Waiters), PF (Thompson) and C (Varejao, Zeller). The mostly highly rumored players are McLemore, Len and Noel which is interesting because there are some redundancies of talent at those positions. If they like one of those three to be a star they obviously should take them. McLemore makes the most sense as Waiters showed some scoring ability, but wasn't a great shooter (41% FG, 31% 3pt). However, he's still only 21 and he did score 14.7ppg as a rookie.
In terms of fit, I would think an Otto Porter would be desireable as a very athletic and active 6'9" small forward with some solid upside. Perhaps he's not as much of a sure thing as McLemore or Len/Noel and that also could be why Cleveland is looking to trade back a bit. Porter gets lots of Tayshaun Prince comparisons, but I don't buy it as I think Porter is more athletic and active running the floor and handling the ball. I'm also impressed with his work ethic as he's added muscle and improved his outside shooting in his two seasons at Georgetown (22% to 42% from 3). Check out this video of him:
The Green Room
Barry Larkin's son, PG Shane Larkin has been invited to the green room for the draft. This is usually a good indicator that someone likes him to go pretty high as usually no more than 15 players are invited. This is where the player sits with their family and their agent, so maybe a Barry sighting is going to happen. Names are chosen based on polling of GMs. Other names that are going to be there are: Len, Noel, Oladipo, McLemore, Porter, Bennett, Burke, Carter-Williams, Zeller, McCollum, Adams, Caldwell-Pope and Karasev. In 2012, 14 players were invited and the latest one of them went was 17th.
Wolves Trade Talks with the Nets
Several reports came out on Monday about the Wolves talking to the Nets about MarShon Brooks. Brooks is a shooting guard that has a lot of offensive talent, but is now behind Joe Johnson. His rookie year he averaged 12.6ppg, but that fell to just 5ppg last season. Brooks is a bit of a volume shooter and has a disappointing career 30.2% 3pt. He's already 24 too, so he's not super young. The rumor is that the Wolves would give either Ridnour or Barea, but the Nets are at their cap limit, so something else would have to come the Wolves' way in order for the deal to happen. The only name I see that has a big enough salary to make it work is Mirza Teletovic or a combo of Reggie Evans and either Tyshawn Taylor or Kris Joseph. I'm not sure that the Nets would be willing to give that many role players to get Barea or Ridnour. Another rumor I read says the #26 pick might go in the deal, which is not good.
Blazers Making a Play for Pek
The Blazers are really looking for a center to partner with LaMarcus Aldridge down low since he gets so beat up during the season playing the 4 and 5. JJ Hickson who played well is a free agent and Meyers Leonard, last year's #11 pick is still probably not ready for prime time. Tiago Splitter and Pekovic are targets to come in and some beef right away. Both of these players are restricted free agents, so that means the Blazers can sign Splitter or Pek to an offer sheet and their original team has a right of first refusal. They are also rumored to be willing to move the #10 pick in a deal.
From Russia With Love?
Andrei Kirilenko has until the 29th to decide whether or not he'll play next year wtih the Wolves or become a free agent. Hopefully, he's giving Flip Saunders some inclinitation of which way he's leaning. Either way, Kirilenko is a shorter term solution, so draft decisions shouldn't be affected too much. That being said, Kirilenko may have been the Wolves best player last season with consideration given to Rubio and Pekovic. With a healthy Love and Budinger and some lucky/good draft picks, we may once again be talking playoff push with AK47 in tow.
From Flip's Presser Yesterday
Their final workout on Monday was Tony Mitchell and Flip liked his athleticism. As you know I'm a fan Mitchell and wouldn't mind at all if he's the #26 selection. NBAdraft.net has Mitchell going #24 to the Knicks.
Flip says he's been in trade talks, but doesn't expect anything to go down until the day before or the day of the draft when they "have a better idea of where everything's going to be going." He also mentions that if Derrick Williams were in this draf the would be a top 3 player, which indicates there have at least been some talks around D-Will, but Flip has the value placed very high. He also says there are no players in this draft that within two years you can be sure they'll be an all-star.
Saunders acknowledges the need for better 3 point shooting and says he's watched a lot of film in addition to workouts, but doesn't give much lean beyond that. He said they won't be taking a point guard in the first round, but what does he consider CJ McCollum? Well, when asked to compare McCollum and Caldwell-Pope it's clear he likes them both and says McCollum has more range and been a more consistent scorer.
For the second round Flip indicates they'll be looking for upside types; maybe euro players. Full presser is here.
Other Notes:
What do the Cavs do at #1?
The Cavs have been linked with Ben McLemore, Nerlens Noel, Alex Len and even Trey Burke and Victor Oladipo. They've also been involved in some talks about trading the pick with ESPN reporting the Thunder, Blazers and our Wolves have shown interest.
The Cavs have quality players at the PG (Irving), SG (Waiters), PF (Thompson) and C (Varejao, Zeller). The mostly highly rumored players are McLemore, Len and Noel which is interesting because there are some redundancies of talent at those positions. If they like one of those three to be a star they obviously should take them. McLemore makes the most sense as Waiters showed some scoring ability, but wasn't a great shooter (41% FG, 31% 3pt). However, he's still only 21 and he did score 14.7ppg as a rookie.
In terms of fit, I would think an Otto Porter would be desireable as a very athletic and active 6'9" small forward with some solid upside. Perhaps he's not as much of a sure thing as McLemore or Len/Noel and that also could be why Cleveland is looking to trade back a bit. Porter gets lots of Tayshaun Prince comparisons, but I don't buy it as I think Porter is more athletic and active running the floor and handling the ball. I'm also impressed with his work ethic as he's added muscle and improved his outside shooting in his two seasons at Georgetown (22% to 42% from 3). Check out this video of him:
The Green Room
Barry Larkin's son, PG Shane Larkin has been invited to the green room for the draft. This is usually a good indicator that someone likes him to go pretty high as usually no more than 15 players are invited. This is where the player sits with their family and their agent, so maybe a Barry sighting is going to happen. Names are chosen based on polling of GMs. Other names that are going to be there are: Len, Noel, Oladipo, McLemore, Porter, Bennett, Burke, Carter-Williams, Zeller, McCollum, Adams, Caldwell-Pope and Karasev. In 2012, 14 players were invited and the latest one of them went was 17th.
Wolves Trade Talks with the Nets
Several reports came out on Monday about the Wolves talking to the Nets about MarShon Brooks. Brooks is a shooting guard that has a lot of offensive talent, but is now behind Joe Johnson. His rookie year he averaged 12.6ppg, but that fell to just 5ppg last season. Brooks is a bit of a volume shooter and has a disappointing career 30.2% 3pt. He's already 24 too, so he's not super young. The rumor is that the Wolves would give either Ridnour or Barea, but the Nets are at their cap limit, so something else would have to come the Wolves' way in order for the deal to happen. The only name I see that has a big enough salary to make it work is Mirza Teletovic or a combo of Reggie Evans and either Tyshawn Taylor or Kris Joseph. I'm not sure that the Nets would be willing to give that many role players to get Barea or Ridnour. Another rumor I read says the #26 pick might go in the deal, which is not good.
Blazers Making a Play for Pek
The Blazers are really looking for a center to partner with LaMarcus Aldridge down low since he gets so beat up during the season playing the 4 and 5. JJ Hickson who played well is a free agent and Meyers Leonard, last year's #11 pick is still probably not ready for prime time. Tiago Splitter and Pekovic are targets to come in and some beef right away. Both of these players are restricted free agents, so that means the Blazers can sign Splitter or Pek to an offer sheet and their original team has a right of first refusal. They are also rumored to be willing to move the #10 pick in a deal.
From Russia With Love?
Andrei Kirilenko has until the 29th to decide whether or not he'll play next year wtih the Wolves or become a free agent. Hopefully, he's giving Flip Saunders some inclinitation of which way he's leaning. Either way, Kirilenko is a shorter term solution, so draft decisions shouldn't be affected too much. That being said, Kirilenko may have been the Wolves best player last season with consideration given to Rubio and Pekovic. With a healthy Love and Budinger and some lucky/good draft picks, we may once again be talking playoff push with AK47 in tow.
From Flip's Presser Yesterday
Their final workout on Monday was Tony Mitchell and Flip liked his athleticism. As you know I'm a fan Mitchell and wouldn't mind at all if he's the #26 selection. NBAdraft.net has Mitchell going #24 to the Knicks.
Flip says he's been in trade talks, but doesn't expect anything to go down until the day before or the day of the draft when they "have a better idea of where everything's going to be going." He also mentions that if Derrick Williams were in this draf the would be a top 3 player, which indicates there have at least been some talks around D-Will, but Flip has the value placed very high. He also says there are no players in this draft that within two years you can be sure they'll be an all-star.
Saunders acknowledges the need for better 3 point shooting and says he's watched a lot of film in addition to workouts, but doesn't give much lean beyond that. He said they won't be taking a point guard in the first round, but what does he consider CJ McCollum? Well, when asked to compare McCollum and Caldwell-Pope it's clear he likes them both and says McCollum has more range and been a more consistent scorer.
For the second round Flip indicates they'll be looking for upside types; maybe euro players. Full presser is here.
Other Notes:
- Flip expects Rick Adelman to be back saying they "talk every day". Great news for Wolves fans.
- Saunders says that former Gopher Colton Iverson is much improved from his time at the Barn. Iverson agrees saying, "I'm not the slow slug you saw for three years."
- Nate Sandell has a nice piece about Trevor Mbakwe and how he needs to overcome his lack of size, injury concerns and old off court issues to make it to the pros.
- Knicks F Chris Copeland is drawing interest and the rumor is the Knicks won't be able to match any offers because they are cap strapped.
- Former 10th overall pick Jimmer Fredette is being shopped and the rumor is it will only take a 2nd round pick to get the former BYU sharpshooter. In two seasons off the bench Fredette has shot 38.4% from 3 point range. The Wolves have two second rounders, but they're probably much too late in the round to get Fredette. He would add to their whiteness and outside shooting.
- The Celtics are trying to move Paul Pierce, with an end game of landing Josh Smith in a separate sign and trade deal with the Hawks. The only two teams that have the cap space to take on Pierce's $15MM contract are Cleveland and Milwaukee.
- Metta World Peace will decide to accept his $7.7MM player option, making him the anti-Latrell Sprewell.
- Shooter JR Smith is declining his option to return to the Knicks and is electing free agency. He has to be considered one of the top shooting guards along with OJ Mayo.
Tuesday, June 18, 2013
The Timberwolves #26 Pick
Shortly after my post about the #9 pick, NBADraft.net changed their projection from McCollum to Kentavious Caldwell-Pope for the Timberwolves. Coincidence? I think probably.
When the Timberwolves have a pick this late in the first round, they have a tendency to trade the pick away. This isn't without reason because you can move back just a few picks and get a similar roll of the dice on a player with a non-guaranteed contract. In 2012, the 26th pick scaled in at about $900k guaranteed for two years with a team option for the third year. The Wolves aren't the only team with this master plan though -- which is why you see so much activity late in the first and early in the second.
#26 Picks in prior drafts:
2012 PFMason Miles Plumlee - White Stiff
2011 SF Jordan Hamilton - Not so sharpshooter
2010 SF Quincy Pondexter - Somewhat useful bench guy out of Washington
2009 PF Taj Gibson - Key Bulls bench guy good/great defender
2008 PG George Hill - Solid enough PG, started for the Pacers last season after backing up for the Spurs
2007 PG Aaron Brooks - Backup PG, one good season for the Rockets
2006 PG Jordan Farmar - Has a nice vertical jump
2005 PF Jason Maxiell - Defensive minded backup big man
2004 SG Kevin Martin - Former Houston gunner that is now OKC 6th man
2003 SF Ndudi Ebi - Doodie Eeeebeee! NBA vets Kendrick Perkins, Leandro Barbosa and Josh Howard were the next 3 picks.
2002 SF John Salmons - Mediocre 3 that still gets quite a bit of time with the Kings. Has a beard like a billy-goat.
2001 C Samuel Dalembert - Long time starting center in the league - still starting with the Bucks
2000 PF Mamadou N'Diaye - Senegal sensation didn't amount to much. Marko Jaric went #30.
1999 PG Vonteego Cummings - 3 years in NBA, then a bunch overseas.
1998 SG Sam Jacobson - Sam is now 37, damn I'm old.
Surprisingly, I see only 5 flops here (Farmar, Ebi, N'Diaye, Cummings, Jacobson). Giving Plumlee, Hamilton and Pondexter incompletes; I see another 2 role players/bench types (Brooks/Maxiell). Gibson, Martin, Hill, Salmons and Dalembert either are or were starters or they are one of the first players off of the bench. So this pick over the last 15 years has shown to be somewhat useful.
This draft is considered by many to be historically bereft of elite talent at the top. However, I've also heard and read that there is talent to be had later in the draft, so I guess there's a perceived plateau of talent. Of particular note are the number of guards that are likely to be available later in the draft. Let's look at who the mock drafts have the Wolves taking here and some other players I think should be considered:
Mock Picks I've Seen:
Tim Hardaway Jr., SG - Michigan -- 6'6" shooting guard and son of the Killer Crossover has a good jumper but doesn't strike me as being super explosive. The Junior was surprisingly not super great off the dribble, but rather a spot-up type shooter. The Wolves need shooters, but Tim Jr. strikes me as one of these players that kind of is what he is. Not a lot of upside, in my opinion. NBADraft.net says his comparison is Wesley Person -- the jumper is very reminiscent of Wesley's.
Reggie Bullock, SG/SF - UNC --Chris Mannix of SI.com has the Wolves selecting 6'7" small forward Bullock at #26. The junior is another big time shooter from downtown (44%); I guess everyone got the message that we sucked at 3s last year. Like Hardaway, he's not a great ball handler and is considered a spot up shooter. Reggie has a nice balanced jumper with a quick, high release. He averaged 6.5 rebounds in 2013, but is unlikely to be inside as much as he was at UNC.
Tony Mitchell, SF/PF - North Texas -- 6'9" 236lb athletic power forward has a 7'3" wingspan and can get up there for those Ricky Rubio lob passes and finish. He's considered a very good defender at multiple positions and a shot blocker. He did shoot a relatively low percentage from the field for a big man (43.7%) and wasn't great from deep (28.9%). The biggest red flags are the decrease in production in a lot of categories from his freshman year to sophomore year (2013) and the fact that he admitted he didn't give his all last year. Some say he has lottery talent, and I'm more of the opinion to try for some upside at 26 than get a guy that's "safe" and is your 9th/10th man.
Glen Rice Jr. SG/SF - D-League -- 22yo Rice ended up in the D-League after bombing out of Georgia Tech. He was a big scorer, averaging 13ppg during the regular season and 25ppg in the playoffs. Rice is just 6'6", but has a 6'10" wingspan. Rice is a scorer - he can get in the lane or shoot it from deep. He's clearly a knob-head though and could create some headaches. He's also not super quick, streaky and kind of a poop defender too. What's not to love?
Others Players of Interest:
Tony Snell/Allen Crabbe - Both are junior shooting guards; from New Mexico and Cal respectively. Both are lights out shooters that are in the 6'6"-7" and 200lb range. Snell is the better ballhandler, while I think Crabbe is the better overall scorer. Both have a little bit of the soft label.
Jamaal Franklin - I've seen this guy anywhere from 15 to 30. He's a 6'5" small forward from San Diego St. that appears to be riding a little bit of a hype train after the value that former teammate Kawhi Leonard proved to be for the Spurs this year. He's super athletic and has a good mid-range game. Has a crazy 6'11.25" wingspan; which combined with his athleticism helps him on both ends of the floor. Only shot 28% from 3 and turned the ball over quite a bit as the main guy at SDSU (3.4 TO/G)
Gorgui Dieng -6'11" center is already 23, but is a solid defender and rebounder and isn't completely useless around the rim. If the Wolves go wing at #9, some big man depth would be welcome here. Just please don't let it be Colton Iverson.
Rudy Gobert - Stretched out French big man is 7'2" with a whopping 7'9" reach. He turns 21 in June and needs to eat a lot of sandwiches to hang in the NBA. There's a decent possibility he'd be an overseas stash for a year or two. Probably doomed to a nickname like the Eiffel Tower.
Giannis Adetokonbo - Athletic, 6'9" Greek (via Nigeria) dude with a 7'3" wingspan. He doesn't turn 19 until December and is considered a high risk-high reward guy. He played in the Greek A2 league and had no one to stop him from going dunk-monster on everyone overseas. (averaged 8pts, 5rebs) He has the size and speed to guard multiple positions on the front line. His jumper is a question mark, although he did shoot 31.3% from 3, so perhaps he can develop.
When the Timberwolves have a pick this late in the first round, they have a tendency to trade the pick away. This isn't without reason because you can move back just a few picks and get a similar roll of the dice on a player with a non-guaranteed contract. In 2012, the 26th pick scaled in at about $900k guaranteed for two years with a team option for the third year. The Wolves aren't the only team with this master plan though -- which is why you see so much activity late in the first and early in the second.
#26 Picks in prior drafts:
2012 PF
2011 SF Jordan Hamilton - Not so sharpshooter
2010 SF Quincy Pondexter - Somewhat useful bench guy out of Washington
2009 PF Taj Gibson - Key Bulls bench guy good/great defender
2008 PG George Hill - Solid enough PG, started for the Pacers last season after backing up for the Spurs
2007 PG Aaron Brooks - Backup PG, one good season for the Rockets
2006 PG Jordan Farmar - Has a nice vertical jump
2005 PF Jason Maxiell - Defensive minded backup big man
2004 SG Kevin Martin - Former Houston gunner that is now OKC 6th man
2003 SF Ndudi Ebi - Doodie Eeeebeee! NBA vets Kendrick Perkins, Leandro Barbosa and Josh Howard were the next 3 picks.
2002 SF John Salmons - Mediocre 3 that still gets quite a bit of time with the Kings. Has a beard like a billy-goat.
2001 C Samuel Dalembert - Long time starting center in the league - still starting with the Bucks
2000 PF Mamadou N'Diaye - Senegal sensation didn't amount to much. Marko Jaric went #30.
1999 PG Vonteego Cummings - 3 years in NBA, then a bunch overseas.
1998 SG Sam Jacobson - Sam is now 37, damn I'm old.
Surprisingly, I see only 5 flops here (Farmar, Ebi, N'Diaye, Cummings, Jacobson). Giving Plumlee, Hamilton and Pondexter incompletes; I see another 2 role players/bench types (Brooks/Maxiell). Gibson, Martin, Hill, Salmons and Dalembert either are or were starters or they are one of the first players off of the bench. So this pick over the last 15 years has shown to be somewhat useful.
This draft is considered by many to be historically bereft of elite talent at the top. However, I've also heard and read that there is talent to be had later in the draft, so I guess there's a perceived plateau of talent. Of particular note are the number of guards that are likely to be available later in the draft. Let's look at who the mock drafts have the Wolves taking here and some other players I think should be considered:
Mock Picks I've Seen:
Tim Hardaway Jr., SG - Michigan -- 6'6" shooting guard and son of the Killer Crossover has a good jumper but doesn't strike me as being super explosive. The Junior was surprisingly not super great off the dribble, but rather a spot-up type shooter. The Wolves need shooters, but Tim Jr. strikes me as one of these players that kind of is what he is. Not a lot of upside, in my opinion. NBADraft.net says his comparison is Wesley Person -- the jumper is very reminiscent of Wesley's.
Reggie Bullock, SG/SF - UNC --Chris Mannix of SI.com has the Wolves selecting 6'7" small forward Bullock at #26. The junior is another big time shooter from downtown (44%); I guess everyone got the message that we sucked at 3s last year. Like Hardaway, he's not a great ball handler and is considered a spot up shooter. Reggie has a nice balanced jumper with a quick, high release. He averaged 6.5 rebounds in 2013, but is unlikely to be inside as much as he was at UNC.
Tony Mitchell, SF/PF - North Texas -- 6'9" 236lb athletic power forward has a 7'3" wingspan and can get up there for those Ricky Rubio lob passes and finish. He's considered a very good defender at multiple positions and a shot blocker. He did shoot a relatively low percentage from the field for a big man (43.7%) and wasn't great from deep (28.9%). The biggest red flags are the decrease in production in a lot of categories from his freshman year to sophomore year (2013) and the fact that he admitted he didn't give his all last year. Some say he has lottery talent, and I'm more of the opinion to try for some upside at 26 than get a guy that's "safe" and is your 9th/10th man.
Glen Rice Jr. SG/SF - D-League -- 22yo Rice ended up in the D-League after bombing out of Georgia Tech. He was a big scorer, averaging 13ppg during the regular season and 25ppg in the playoffs. Rice is just 6'6", but has a 6'10" wingspan. Rice is a scorer - he can get in the lane or shoot it from deep. He's clearly a knob-head though and could create some headaches. He's also not super quick, streaky and kind of a poop defender too. What's not to love?
Others Players of Interest:
Tony Snell/Allen Crabbe - Both are junior shooting guards; from New Mexico and Cal respectively. Both are lights out shooters that are in the 6'6"-7" and 200lb range. Snell is the better ballhandler, while I think Crabbe is the better overall scorer. Both have a little bit of the soft label.
Jamaal Franklin - I've seen this guy anywhere from 15 to 30. He's a 6'5" small forward from San Diego St. that appears to be riding a little bit of a hype train after the value that former teammate Kawhi Leonard proved to be for the Spurs this year. He's super athletic and has a good mid-range game. Has a crazy 6'11.25" wingspan; which combined with his athleticism helps him on both ends of the floor. Only shot 28% from 3 and turned the ball over quite a bit as the main guy at SDSU (3.4 TO/G)
Gorgui Dieng -6'11" center is already 23, but is a solid defender and rebounder and isn't completely useless around the rim. If the Wolves go wing at #9, some big man depth would be welcome here. Just please don't let it be Colton Iverson.
Rudy Gobert - Stretched out French big man is 7'2" with a whopping 7'9" reach. He turns 21 in June and needs to eat a lot of sandwiches to hang in the NBA. There's a decent possibility he'd be an overseas stash for a year or two. Probably doomed to a nickname like the Eiffel Tower.
Giannis Adetokonbo - Athletic, 6'9" Greek (via Nigeria) dude with a 7'3" wingspan. He doesn't turn 19 until December and is considered a high risk-high reward guy. He played in the Greek A2 league and had no one to stop him from going dunk-monster on everyone overseas. (averaged 8pts, 5rebs) He has the size and speed to guard multiple positions on the front line. His jumper is a question mark, although he did shoot 31.3% from 3, so perhaps he can develop.
Friday, June 14, 2013
Wolves NBA Draft Notes
The NBA Draft is June 27th and the Timberwolves have the 9th and 26th picks. Let's look at what might be there at #9.
Flip Saunders has made it no secret that he has a burning desire for Indiana shooting guard Victor Oladipo. After working out some players on Thursday he hopped a plane to go see Oladipo in DC. Everyone knows that Oladipo is a good defender, but he's been climbing mock drafts based on his improvements in his offensive game. Oladipo would be a great fit for the Wolves, but is it better to try and get a big man at 9 and wait on a shooter until 26 given the depth there in this draft? Or do they just take the best available guy? Or dangle Williams in a deal to move up to get "their guy"?
Here's a vid of Oladipo scoring against no defenders:
BTW, I like those drills where they whack on the guy with pads while he's in the lane. Good stuff.
So, what do the Wolves need besides having everyone heal up and stop doing knuckle pushups? Here's the roster and their contract length:
PG:
Ricky Rubio through 14/15
Luke Ridnour through 13/14
JJ Barea through 14/15
SG:
Alexey Shved through 15/16
Malcolm Lee through 13/14
SF:
Andrei Kirilenko PLAYER OPTION
Chase Budinger FREE AGENT
PF:
Kevin Love through 15/16
Derrick Williams through 14/15
Dante Cunningham TEAM OPTION
C:
Nikola Pekovic FREE AGENT
Greg Stiemsma TEAM OPTION
Other FA/Release: Brandon Roy, Josh Howard, Louis Amundson, Wil Conroy, Mickael Gelabale
Official free agency negotiations don't begin until July 1, so the Wolves have some opportunity to be flexible in the draft. Needs still appear to be a shooting guard that can defend and shoot from the outside and a big man. Budinger is a nice option presuming he can bounce back, but I certainly wouldn't begrudge the Wolves trying to get a legit SF as Kirilenko plays a lot of 4 and is no spring chicken. Ridnour and Barea are both serviceable players as backups at the point -- unfortunately they've been pressed into much more service than you'd like. Shved also can play some point, so I don't think it's a huge need. There's some depth at the 4, even if Williams is moved. I refuse to list Williams as a 3 since he's proven he can't do it.
For the bigs, Nikola Pekovic is pretty much a must sign even though he'll cost the Wolves a lot of cash. Stiemsma showed some energy and defense at times, but I was surprised at how many mistakes he makes on the court as well. I do like his shot blocking, but if we score someone in the draft in might be worth saving the money it costs to bring him back. The Wolves have until July 17th to decide, so they can draft and even consider potential free agent options before making a move.
Looking at a bunch of mock drafts the consensus is Oladipo will be gone by the #9 spot. I've seen a couple of 8s, a 6 and even a 5 pick for him. If he's there at 8 would the Pistons move back a pick for the #26 selection? Maybe. Is it worth it? I lean a little more towards keeping the #26 and taking two stabs in a draft that seems to have a big group of guys that aren't separated by much.
For the #9, the mock draft group-thinkers almost all think that CJ McCollum out of Lehigh is the pick. McCollum is terrific with the ball in his hands and can shoot (51% from 3). He even got a Stephen Curry comparison from Hoopshype.com. He's also a big time transition scorer, which fits well with Rubio. What he doesn't have is size (6'3") and he's not much of a defender. He's also a senior, so what you see might be what you get. Here's an incredibly long youtube clip about him:
The odd man out on the four mocks I looked at had the Wolves taking Shabazz Muhammad, the 6'6" shooter out of UCLA. They must have assumed that Wolves brass where watching his 6 of 18 performance against the Gophers in the NCAA Tournament. Or the fact that he's now magically 20 instead of 19 years old. In other mocks I reviewed he's at #17 (twice) and #13th. Most consider him not an amazing athlete like an Oladipo, but he's a high volume shooter and some believe he still has upside. He also has Tourette's Syndrome which is pretty kickass. He's also a lefty with a beard, so obviously he's the next James Harden.
Another wing to consider is Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, a sophomore out of Georgia. Caldwell-Pope is right in that 9-13 range at the end of the lottery by most mocks. I've seen him in the 10 spot to Portland a few times. Paul Allen (Blazers owner, not homer Vikings guy) even attended a workout. Kentavious is a very good shooter and at 6'5" 205, he's got decent size. He's also a pretty great rebounder, notching 7.1 a game; which means he's not afraid to mix it up at least I guess. KCP is also considered a very good defender and kicked butt in speed and agility drills. I dig him and wouldn't mind him at #9 one bit.
There are also some big men that are near the #9 spot in the mock drafts. The bonus of taking a big instead of a wing is there are a lot of wings later in the draft that could be had at #26. However, if Nikola is signed and delivered, the SG/SF is the greater need. Here's a quick look at a few big men:
Cody Zeller, 6'11" Soph Indiana -- Zeller has been previously thought of as a sure fire top 5 pick, but his stock has slid in some circles. He looks like a big goofus but he's incredibly athletic for his size. He recorded a 33.5" standing vertical leap, which is like crazy high. In fact, it's the best by anyone over 6'8" in more than ten years. He shoots a nice jumper and runs like a mofo. He'd be a great change of speed with Pek banging around in the middle.
Steven Adams 7' Frosh Pitt -- Adams is a big bad man in the middle. The seven footer clocks in with a 7'4.5" wingspan and had a great combine where he flashed a pretty nice jumper. He also has gigantic hands. Adams is another player I'd be ok with in the 9 spot.
Lucas Nogueria (Bebe) 7' Spain -- Bebe has been linked to Philly at #11 in a few mock drafts after a recent good showing at the Eurocamp. He's athletic for a man with a 7'6" wingspan. At just 220 pounds his body is not quite ready for the NBA. He's about as high risk, high reward as it gets as he was previously though of as a stud in the making and then had a poor showing in 2011 at Eurocamp. I like the untapped potential, but not at #9 overall.
Kelly Olynyk 6'11" Junior Gonzaga -- I've seen Olynyk in the #15 range in mocks so I'm throwing him on this list. It could be the goofy hair, but he has a bit of a Luis Scola vibe to him. The NBADraft.net comparison is Fabricio Oberto, so there's that. He's getting a lot of "skilled" big man comments on the internet and he backed that up with 18.1ppg on 66% shooting. In addition to looking goofy he also has a freakishly short wingspan for his height. He's 6'10.75" without shoes and has 6'9.75" arms.
So there you have it. I'm at least 72% sure that one of these guys is on the Timberwolves come draft night (barring a trade). I'll take a look at the #26 pick next week.
Flip Saunders has made it no secret that he has a burning desire for Indiana shooting guard Victor Oladipo. After working out some players on Thursday he hopped a plane to go see Oladipo in DC. Everyone knows that Oladipo is a good defender, but he's been climbing mock drafts based on his improvements in his offensive game. Oladipo would be a great fit for the Wolves, but is it better to try and get a big man at 9 and wait on a shooter until 26 given the depth there in this draft? Or do they just take the best available guy? Or dangle Williams in a deal to move up to get "their guy"?
Here's a vid of Oladipo scoring against no defenders:
BTW, I like those drills where they whack on the guy with pads while he's in the lane. Good stuff.
So, what do the Wolves need besides having everyone heal up and stop doing knuckle pushups? Here's the roster and their contract length:
PG:
Ricky Rubio through 14/15
Luke Ridnour through 13/14
JJ Barea through 14/15
SG:
Alexey Shved through 15/16
Malcolm Lee through 13/14
SF:
Andrei Kirilenko PLAYER OPTION
Chase Budinger FREE AGENT
PF:
Kevin Love through 15/16
Derrick Williams through 14/15
Dante Cunningham TEAM OPTION
C:
Nikola Pekovic FREE AGENT
Greg Stiemsma TEAM OPTION
Other FA/Release: Brandon Roy, Josh Howard, Louis Amundson, Wil Conroy, Mickael Gelabale
Official free agency negotiations don't begin until July 1, so the Wolves have some opportunity to be flexible in the draft. Needs still appear to be a shooting guard that can defend and shoot from the outside and a big man. Budinger is a nice option presuming he can bounce back, but I certainly wouldn't begrudge the Wolves trying to get a legit SF as Kirilenko plays a lot of 4 and is no spring chicken. Ridnour and Barea are both serviceable players as backups at the point -- unfortunately they've been pressed into much more service than you'd like. Shved also can play some point, so I don't think it's a huge need. There's some depth at the 4, even if Williams is moved. I refuse to list Williams as a 3 since he's proven he can't do it.
For the bigs, Nikola Pekovic is pretty much a must sign even though he'll cost the Wolves a lot of cash. Stiemsma showed some energy and defense at times, but I was surprised at how many mistakes he makes on the court as well. I do like his shot blocking, but if we score someone in the draft in might be worth saving the money it costs to bring him back. The Wolves have until July 17th to decide, so they can draft and even consider potential free agent options before making a move.
Looking at a bunch of mock drafts the consensus is Oladipo will be gone by the #9 spot. I've seen a couple of 8s, a 6 and even a 5 pick for him. If he's there at 8 would the Pistons move back a pick for the #26 selection? Maybe. Is it worth it? I lean a little more towards keeping the #26 and taking two stabs in a draft that seems to have a big group of guys that aren't separated by much.
For the #9, the mock draft group-thinkers almost all think that CJ McCollum out of Lehigh is the pick. McCollum is terrific with the ball in his hands and can shoot (51% from 3). He even got a Stephen Curry comparison from Hoopshype.com. He's also a big time transition scorer, which fits well with Rubio. What he doesn't have is size (6'3") and he's not much of a defender. He's also a senior, so what you see might be what you get. Here's an incredibly long youtube clip about him:
The odd man out on the four mocks I looked at had the Wolves taking Shabazz Muhammad, the 6'6" shooter out of UCLA. They must have assumed that Wolves brass where watching his 6 of 18 performance against the Gophers in the NCAA Tournament. Or the fact that he's now magically 20 instead of 19 years old. In other mocks I reviewed he's at #17 (twice) and #13th. Most consider him not an amazing athlete like an Oladipo, but he's a high volume shooter and some believe he still has upside. He also has Tourette's Syndrome which is pretty kickass. He's also a lefty with a beard, so obviously he's the next James Harden.
Another wing to consider is Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, a sophomore out of Georgia. Caldwell-Pope is right in that 9-13 range at the end of the lottery by most mocks. I've seen him in the 10 spot to Portland a few times. Paul Allen (Blazers owner, not homer Vikings guy) even attended a workout. Kentavious is a very good shooter and at 6'5" 205, he's got decent size. He's also a pretty great rebounder, notching 7.1 a game; which means he's not afraid to mix it up at least I guess. KCP is also considered a very good defender and kicked butt in speed and agility drills. I dig him and wouldn't mind him at #9 one bit.
There are also some big men that are near the #9 spot in the mock drafts. The bonus of taking a big instead of a wing is there are a lot of wings later in the draft that could be had at #26. However, if Nikola is signed and delivered, the SG/SF is the greater need. Here's a quick look at a few big men:
 |
| Zeller doesn't need to see to dunk |
Cody Zeller, 6'11" Soph Indiana -- Zeller has been previously thought of as a sure fire top 5 pick, but his stock has slid in some circles. He looks like a big goofus but he's incredibly athletic for his size. He recorded a 33.5" standing vertical leap, which is like crazy high. In fact, it's the best by anyone over 6'8" in more than ten years. He shoots a nice jumper and runs like a mofo. He'd be a great change of speed with Pek banging around in the middle.
So there you have it. I'm at least 72% sure that one of these guys is on the Timberwolves come draft night (barring a trade). I'll take a look at the #26 pick next week.
Wednesday, June 27, 2012
NBA Draft - What to Watch For
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| Probably not the first time P. Diddy had a dude's crotch on his head. |
Well, I already did an NBA Draft Preview on 5/30, but that's a complete waste now as Kahn took the train to ginger-town and moved the #18 pick for Chase Budinger. I literally watched tens of Youtube videos for that piece too. I get what Kahn did here as he's probably take a Moe Harkless type (from my first preview, thanks for reading) and we'd be a couple years away from knowing if the guy is useful or Wes Johnson. Budinger shot over 40% from 3 last year, can run and drive to the hoop with athleticism despite looking like that dude from Clerks. He's never played more than about 22 mpg, and he's about a 10ppg guy in that time. I've never thought he was much of a man defender, but rather more of a help defense/passing lane type. Which is similar to how Rubio defends and gets a lot of steals, but obviously not on the level that Rubio does it.
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| Kahn growing out the Art Garfunkel hair? |
So, as a Wolves fan, if there are any of you left - what's the point of watching the draft anymore? The answer is Kahn. Kahn can't keep it in his pants during the draft and he really feels like a guy that's constantly working out deals. People love to hate him, but the Wolves have been kind of getting better, right? Maybe? There are a couple of moves that are of interest to me:
1. Trade Beasley to the Lakers for Jordan Hill. This is a pretty hot rumor and Laker fans seem to be excited to get him. The Wolves can make Beasley an 8.2MM qualifying offer, but I'm in the "get anything while you can" boat. Beasley is a volume shooter and seems to play best with the ball in his hands a lot. With Rubio and Love and an emerging Pekovic, his touches decrease and he gets pouty.
Hill was the #8 overall pick in 2009 and actually played with Budinger the same 3 years at Arizona. They both got 18+ppg at Arizona in 08-09. Hill hasn't got much run and has bounced around a bit, but his per36 min extrapolated stats are 13pts, 10rebs and 1.6 blocks per game. He's 6'10" and 235 lbs and might be a rotation guy for the Wolves. Kahn might even get a pick thrown in on this deal, who knows?
2. A move to get a shooting guard in town. Rumors I've read are signing cadaver knees Brandon Roy and a potential trade for Jamal Crawford. Roy is interested, but Craig Stadler probably has better knees. Several teams appear in the mix for Crawford's wicked crossover and zero defense.
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| THE WALRUS |
This is not rumored as far as I know, but I know the Bobcats are interested in moving the #2 pick as well as dumping the contract of Tyrus Thomas. Would the Wolves entertain a redundant Derrick Williams (he can't play the 3) for Thomas and the #2? Would the Bobcats do it? Hell, I don't know. Thomas is another big that's athletic and can contest some shots and many thought he would be a stud coming out of LSU. I like the idea of these types of guys helping out Love and or Pek down low.
With the #2 the Wolves could fill the SG spot with Bradley Beal or Jeremy Lamb or maybe Austin Rivers or Terence Ross. Beal is the guy with all of the hype right now. Knowing Kahn, he'd trade up to #2 and back to #4 and then maybe back again. This move would obviously be second guessed a lot as Williams definitely has talent, I just feel like he's another stretch 4 and needs a different home.
Finally, here are some non-Wolves related things to watch for in the NBA draft:
- The suits. Check this website for some of the best and worst ever. Bobby Jackson and Johnny Flynn make the list!
- The girlfriends. Jan Vesely famously threw down with his chick at last year's draft. It turned out to be the only notable thing he's done thus far as a pro.
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| Suck face. |
- Jared Sullinger from the Evil Ohio State University. Sully boy was a top 5 pick if he would have entered the previous year's draft, but he stayed at OSU and brought them to a final 4. Now he's not being invited to the green room and may go around 20th overall. NBAdraft.net says his NBA comparison is Carlos Boozer/Ike Diogu. That's a pretty wide range. Oh, and he has a back issue...those don't recur do they?
- Stare daggers into Jay Bilas. He sucks. Over/under of number of guys he calls "long" or "has great length" is 20. Andre Drummond is a lock (7'6") wingspan.
So watch, have fun, and maybe the Wolves will catch a break for once and do something right. (probably not)
Wednesday, May 30, 2012
NBA Draft Preview
Let's see if I can do better in my second post after running away from my other blog in the middle of the night like the Baltimore Colts.
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| Damn you, Marko |
The year was 2005. Kevin McHale was in charge of a sputtering Wolves team that had missed the playoffs for the first time in 8 years by just one game. In June, they hired Dwayne Casey as head coach. That summer, they CRUSHED the draft by locking up Rashad McCants and Bracey Wright. They weren't done there though, friends. Not by a long shot,
During the offseason, they traded All-Star Sam Cassell and a protected future first-round draft pick to the Los Angeles Clippers for Marko Jaric and Lionel Chalmers. They also signed free agent Nikoloz Tskitishvili.BOOM SUCKAS! We get rid of a 9 year pro, former all-star and 2 time NBA champ as well as a future first round pick for MARKO? Where do I sign? What? Did someone say Marko had missed 32 games as a Clipper with bilateral toe weakness and that he's never averaged 10ppg? Well, needless to say Marko sucked, the Wolves sucked and they continue to suck to this day. Oh yeah, and don't forget about NIKOLOZ TSKITISHVILI, GEORGIAN BASKETBALL LEGEND!!!!
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| Taking it to ze rack. |
What does that have to do with today? Well, that long lost first round pick has finally become eligible as the Hornets, who got the pick from the Clippers in the Chris Paul trade, will have a 6.10% chance at a top 3 pick in tonight's lottery. If this where the Wolves' pick you can virtually guarantee that they'd either remain at the 10 spot or slide back a pick. It's just how they like to roll. Since the Wolves don't have the pick, you can bet they'll manage to move up.
The good news is master trading strategist KAHN has garnered a pick from Utah for the Al Jefferson trade in 2010. They'll swing for the fences at #18 overall. So what can we get at #18? What do we need?
The Timberwolves need two things the most in this guy's opinion: a) a knock down shooter at the shooting guard or small forward position, and 2) that guy should also be able to play some defense. Look, they've been grooming Wes Johnson to do both of those things, but it appears he's incapable. Martell Webster can do a little bit of each of these things, but he's always hurt and can completely disappear from games dispite his new, totally awesome FISHBONE haircut.
Here are some guys of interest and some NBADraft.net buzz words on each player:
SF Moe Harkless, 6'8" 218lb Frosh - St. John's
Moe is long and able to get his hands on a lot of balls. The jumper from long range isn't there yet, but he has size and upside and clear athletic ability. Maybe a poor man's Paul George? NBAdraft buzzwords: "tremendous upside!", "could slip into the lottery with good workouts", "promising mechanics", "struggles to create easy shots for himself"
SG Doron Lamb, 6'4" 200lb Soph - Kentucky
Lamb was kind of a do-everything guy at Kentucky. I'm just not sure that there's a boatload of upside here. He's also a little smaller than you'd like, but he does have a 6'7" wingspan. He also has a shot, putting up some great FG%. Seems like more of a smart, glue-guy type though. Buzzwords: "tweener", "extremely active", "crafty", "assassin-like", "jumpshot mechanics are clean"
SF Quincy Miller, 6'9" 210lb Frosh - Baylor
Quincy is another guy in the Harkless crazy-long mold. Miller may not have stood out as much on a semi-loaded Baylor squad (teammate Perry Jones will likely go top 10). He's got a good jumper despite it looking a bit awkward. Buzzwords: "ridiculously lengthy (7'3" wingspan)", "crafty shot creator", "inconsistent", "appears lackadaisical"
Those are my top 3 for the 18 pick, a couple of others that intrigue me:
SG Terence Ross 6'6" Soph Washington: "good court vision", "lacks a conscience", "shot has good lift and form"
SG John Jenkins 6'4" Junior Vandy: "pure shooter", "does damage from the perimeter", "doesn't have the size and foot speed to be an elite defender"
Finally, if we would have never heard of the name Marko Jaric and had the pick still, here's who we could get and who I'd love to have:
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