2015 NBA Draft Thoughts - First Round.

Thoughts on every round 1 pick.  Some of this was written live, some way later since my kids are spastic morons.  Will do some round 2 commentary tomorrow.  Or some other time.  Some time soon probably.  Leave me alone.


1.1 - WOLVES - Karl-Anthony Towns, Kentucky.  Love it.  Brilliant pick.  Here is where I gave my initial thoughts on Towns vs. Okafor, and it became more and more obvious through workouts and Towns would be the pick.  I'm just damn glad Flip didn't screw it up.

1.2 LAKERS - D'Angelo Russell, Ohio State.  If Towns didn't exist I would have been all over Russell.  I really, really like this guy and it wouldn't surprise me if he ends up being the best player from this draft (with Towns a close second, of course).  I'm not sure how he'll work next to Kobe since they both are ball dominant types, but to be honest I'm not sure how anybody works next to Kobe at this point.  Dude's insane.  Free agency should be interesting.

1.3 PHILLY - Jahlil Okafor, Duke.  God it would have been so awesome if the Sixers took another project like Porzingis.  I don't know if Okafor and Embiid can play together, but I don't know what's up with Embiid anyway, and based on conventional wisdom he's the best player available.  I'm pretty sure if you had told Sixer fans they'd get Okafor back in mid-season they'd be thrilled.  They still probably should be and Nerlens Noel is a great pairing with him since he can help erase a lot of defensive problems.

1.4 KNICKS - Kristaps Porzingis, Foreign. I just love that this was the Knicks' pick since they're so trainwrecky already.  Not that this Porzingis guy is necessarily a train wreck.  Everyone raves about him as a different type of Euro player (which we've heard before) so maybe he'll be awesome, but he's also a project and a year or two away from a meaningful impact.  I'm sure Melo is thrilled.  Plus they could really use a PG.  No idea why they didn't go with Mudiay but whatevs.

1.5 ORLANDO - Mario Hezonja, Foreign.  One the one hand, they say this guy is the one player in this year's draft who could win both a slam dunk and a 3-point contenst.  On the other hand, they just compared him to J.R. Smith.  Hopefully for the Magic his head is screwed on a bit straighter.  I read somewhere he's a seriously cocky mofo, so who knows.  They say he can shoot the lights out, and when three of your key rebuilding pieces are Aaron Gordon, Elfrid Payton, and Victor Oladipo well, you need some shooting.

1.6 KINGS - Willie Cauley-Stein, Kentucky.  Twitter and the internet hated this pick, and it was somewhat surprising considering WCS was reported to have some foot issues that had absolute no effect on him last year, but I like it.  The NBA big whigs are starting to figure out things like defense are pretty important and he's a monster on that end, and immediately.  Offense is a bit problematic, but with DeMarcus Cousins and Rudy Gay on that team I'm not sure how many shots are available anyway, and at least he can dunk well.

1.7 NUGGETS - Emmanuel Mudiay, China.  Was thought at one point to possibly be going as highly as top 3, a surprising slide and a good pick for the Nuggets who have apparently made basically everyone available and are going into full tear it down mode.  Mudiay, who I still have questions about simply because I've never seen him play, makes it easier to trade Ty Lawson, their most valuable trade chip.  I'm kind of surprised they didn't move him already.

1.8 PISTONS - Stanley Johnson, Arizona.  Behind Towns and Russell, Johnson is my third favorite player in this draft.  Watching him at Arizona he was so athletic and was able to dominate at times without even looking like he was trying.  The game just comes so easy to him, and he's got plenty of size and skill.

1.9 HORNETS - Frank Kaminsky, Wisconsin.  Well, Jordan is Jordan.  Reports came out that he fell in love with Kaminsky in his workout, and despite already having Spencer Hawes on the roster (who is maybe Kaminsky's best case scenario) as well as Cody Zeller and a possible super talent like Justice Winslow dropping in their lap, they go with the Tank.  I don't know.  It's hard to see Kaminsky developing into a dominant force or anything.  I just hate lottery picks with limited upside.  Doesn't make sense to me.

1.10 HEAT - Justice Winslow, Duke.  A nice little steal for Miami here.  I don't know why he slid, especially since there was a little talk about him possibly being a top 3 guy at one point after he showed off in the NCAA Tournament, but the Heat pretty much had to take him.  If Hassan Whiteside is legit their lineup of Dragic/Wade/Winslow/Bosh/Whiteside is pretty good if everyone stays healthy.  Which they wouldn't with that group, but it'd be pretty solid if they did.

1.11 PACERS - Myles Turner, Texas.  I think Turner was like the #2 recruit coming into last season so he's got boatloads of potential.  He may not exactly have lived up to it last season but you have to remember his coach was Rick Barnes who probably would have taken Kentucky to the NIT title last year.  I wasn't expecting to hear his name this early for some reason, but I think I just read that David West opted out so it makes sense.  Might sprinkle a little rookie of the year futures money on him.  If he's ready the playing time will be there.

1.12 JAZZ - Trey Lyles, Kentucky.  I was a bit surprised by this one since the Derrick Favors and Rudy Gobert front court seems really solid with the back court quite a bit shakier (I thought Booker should have been the pick).  Then again, the Jazz are working on becoming a defensively awesome team and Lyles should be able to block some shots.  They were pretty much in best player available mode since they were awesome the second half of last year and have their rebuilt lineup pretty much in place so I suppose they think he's the best player available.

1.13 SUNS - Devin Booker, Kentucky.  I like Booker here.  Probably the best shooter in the draft (besides Towns of course).  Despite having a bunch of guard types they don't have anyone you would classify first as a shooter so Booker gives them that added dimension.

1.14 THUNDER - Cameron Payne, Murray State.  I only saw one Murray State game this year so I can't really comment intelligently on Payne.  I am, however, surprised a bit they went point guard instead of big man considering who they have, but maybe they think Mitch McGary is going to be a player.  I myself do not.  All I know is they shipped out Jeremy Lamb for Luke Ridnour and then drafted another PG.  Weird pick.

1.15 WIZARDS - Kelly Oubre, Kansas.  Yeah not getting it.  The Wiz also gave up two 2nd round picks to move up here.  Bradley Beal and Otto Porter are both pretty young and seemingly have the wing positions on lock down now that Porter remembered how to play basketball.  I get that sometimes it makes sense to go best player available and stuff, but I don't know that Oubre is that.  My least favorite pick so far.

1.16 CELTICS - Terry Rozier, Louisville.  I like Rozier, but I'm always a bit leery of a prospect who rises up the draft boards based on workouts, going from the 2nd round to the mid-first.  It's just like the WR who put up mediocre production in college, kills the combine, and shoots into the first round.  Seems like those bust more than usual. Not to mention Rozier is a point guard who plays great defense, rebounds really well, and has an iffy jumper - the exact description of Marcus Smart.  Weird pick.

1.17 BUCKS - Rashad Vaughn, UNLV.  Much higher than I thought he'd go, but Vaughn always had kind of had more of an NBA game than a college game anyway, and he made it pretty clear his goal was 1-and-done so good for him.  Milwaukee seems like they're doing that thing where you collect as many interchangeable parts as you can, and Vaughn fits in.  Also like that with Dekker on the board the Bucks don't fall into the trap of going for the hometown kid (not a rip on the Tyus trade because that made tons of sense - Vaughn fits here so much better than Dekker).

1.18 ROCKETS - Sam Dekker, Wisconsin.  It never even occurred to me but this is a perfect fit.  They lost Chandler Parsons, and although Trevor Ariza was a capable replacement I think Dekker is an even better choice since, like Parsons, Dekker is far more white than Ariza.  Really, I always thought Dekker would be better in a more uptempo role, and this fits.  One of the better player-to-team matches in the draft so far.

1.19 KNICKS - Jerian Grant, Notre Dame.  Wow the Knicks actually did something smart.  I mentioned above they need a PG (sorry Jose Calderon) and they traded Tim Hardaway (now expendable with last year's emergence of Langston Galloway) for the most ready to contribute PG in the draft in Grant.  So they drafted one guy who is maybe two seasons away and one guy who is ready to play right now.  That's so Knicks.

1.20 RAPTORS - Delon Wright, Utah.  Well this is who I wanted the Wolves to get with that first pick in round 2.  I was talking with Snacks today and there was all that talk of the Wolves packaging their two #2s to move back into the first for Tyus Jones, and I said I'd rather have Grant, and he said might as well keep the picks and get Wright and use the second one on a euro stash guy or something.  That all made sense.  But now Wright and Grant are both gone and Tyus is a pretty big tier above any other point guard left, maybe the trade makes sense (spoiler:  they do it.  radio is going to be horrible tomorrow).

1.21 MAVERICKS - Justin Anderson, Virginia.  Everyone's favorite late first round sleeper, including Grandslam's which I knew because he's sent me at least 3 texts about him tonight.  With Monta Ellis and Rajon Rondo peaced out they need some guard play because otherwise they're rolling J.J. Barea and Devin Harris out there.  Anderson could be just fine in the long run, but man these guys better be players for a guard in free agency.  Gross.

1.22 BULLS - Bobby Portis, Arkansas.  They have Taj Gibson and Joakim Noah so this is another pick that doesn't make a ton of sense from a fit sense, but Portis is a monster of an athlete.  Depending on how NBA-ready he is (debateable) he could give Chicago some real freedom to move Gibson, who everyone always seems to want, in a trade.  Plus his athleticism and defense are big strengths and could fit in well with Chicago's defensive oriented philosophy, which is what I would say if they still had Tom Tibedoux.  There's no way that's spelled correctly.

1.23 BLAZERS - Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Arizona.  Well he can defend his ass off.  With Nic Batum now gone (and I can't believe they're losing LaMarcus Aldridge, wow) Jefferson can pretty much slide right in and do a poor man's approximation on the wing.  He's a pretty horrendous shooter, however, so the change will be noticeable.  Man, poor Portland.  They're gonna be in rough shape next year.  Though I guess with Aldridge bouncing that gives them a bunch of money to chase Love or somebody like that.

1.24 WOLVES - Tyus Jones, Duke.  I like the trade if they really wanted a back-up for Ricky Rubio which it seems like they did from everything reported and makes a lot of sense since I think Zack LaVine's long term future is brighter as a shooting guard.  The only thing I hate about this is you're going to get a ton of vocal rubes loving it since he's from Minnesota and a ton of vocal rubes hating it since he left to go to Duke.  Seriously, the radio is going to be brutal tomorrow.  Especially PA.  He's so dumb.  If you like him promise me you'll stop reading this blog because I hate you.

1.25 GRIZZLIES - Jarell Martin, LSU.  Monster athlete and I like it.  Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph are both still excellent players but they're both sorta ground bound, and Martin is the complete opposite.  Back-up bigs are Jon Leuer and Kosta Koufos, so Martin is them going in a totally different direction with their bigs.  Plus if I remember right he's a bit feisty which means he'll fit right in.  I think.  That's the current narrative on them, at least.

1.26 SPURS - Nikola Milutinov, Foreign.  Normally taking a Euro dork late is a pretty wasted move, but since this is the Spurs I irrationally find myself assuming it's a great pick.  Of course, I thought they got a steal last year with UCLA's Kyle Anderson and he played less than 400 minutes last year (he might have been hurt or something, I don't know but he didn't play much).  Also if you click on ESPN's scouting report for this guy it says he lacks a great motor and is a little soft.  That really doesn't sound like Pop's kinda guy.

1.27 LAKERS - Larry Nance Jr., Wyoming.  I said Martin is a monster athlete but Nance makes Martin look like you.  He played at Wyoming and struggled with a bunch of injuries so he never really got a lot of attention in college, but the name means something and seriously he's a great athlete - assuming he's all the way back from like 4 ACL tears or whatever.

1.28 CELTICS - R.J. Hunter, Georgia State.  I wonder if he would have been picked this high if he hadn't had the NCAA Tournament he had, but whatevs dude is pretty talented.  Celtics with another guard is a bit weird, but at least this one can shoot.  They now have Isaiah Thomas, Marcus Smart, Phil Pressey, Avery Bradley, James Young, R.J. Hunter, and Terry Rozier.  That's like, way too many guards.  Between their draft and the rumors earlier tonight that they were shopping Marcus Smart, I think they're shopping Marcus Smart.  Maybe the Wolves can trade Tyus for him?

1.29 NETS - Chris McCullough, Syracuse.  You're probably like who? and that makes sense.  He was a highly touted, highly regarded recruit before he destroyed his knee and he entered the draft anyway which normally I'd say dude what? but he got the guaranteed cash so good for him.  If you recall, the Nets have basically traded every pick they have for the foreseeable future, so at 29 you either go with a less touted prospect or shoot for the stars.  McCullough is a shoot for the stars pick and although it probably won't work out it makes total sense for a team with no way to build a future.

1.30 WARRIORS - Kevon Looney, UCLA.  Like this guy a lot an a great pick for the champs.  I read they have an option on Marreese Speights and now they can cut him loose and save some cash, and David Lee is even easier to move, though I don't know what they have to send along with him and his $15 million contract.  Course I seem to almost always love a lot of the end of the 1st round picks for good teams, and how many of them actually work out?  Like 3?  Ever?


There's your first round.  Really like the Wolves draft (and NOT because Tyus is from Minnesota, I would have preferred Grant but I like getting a PG).  Here's your depth chart right now:

PG:  Rubio/Jones
SG:  Martin/LaVine
SF:  Wiggins/Muhammad
PF:  Towns/Garnett
C:  Pekovic/Dieng

Seems fun.

Words on the NCAA Basketball Season

With little to no action on the recruiting front (although our new best friend Nate Mason was on campus this weekend) and nothing worth talking Twins about, I haven't posted in a while.  But here I am, watching both baseball and football, and I was missing you guys so I should write some words.

-  Ok so spoiler alert, I'm pretty lazy busy now a days and don't get to post as much.  Therefore, I likely won't be doing that thing where I preview a whole bunch of college basketball teams this year because that takes a shit ton of time and I don't think anybody reads them anyway.  But I feel I must call your attention to a team that is not getting the respect they deserve, a team I have ranked as the 3rd best in the country behind Michigan State and Louisville - The Oklahoma State Cowboys.

Most prediction things I've looked at have them somewhere in the 20s, and that is just way way way wrong.   Did we all forget just how far one great player can take a team in college basketball?  Carmelo Anthony?  Danny Manning?  Hell, Kemba Walker?  Marcus Smart is one that level.  But lest you think this is a one person team, Markel Brown and LeBryan Nash are here too.  The only thing missing is a good big man, but they have a ton of options so if they can cobble together forty minutes of competent big man play each game (they only need one "big guy" because Nash is big enough to play the 4 unless they need to go big) this team is going to be a serious, serious contender.  Currently 25-1 or 40-1 to win the whole thing at some books.  Get in there now.

-  Speaking of, here are your contenders this year:  Oklahoma State, Michigan State, Louisville, Kentucky, Duke, Arizona, Kansas, Syracuse, VCU and Wisconsin (gross, but true.  I'm high on Dekker).  That's it.  I think UCONN could be a bit of a sleeper too, seems like everybody has forgotten about them but they have a pretty nice squad coming back.  On the opposite end, I think Indiana falls off a cliff.  I know Noah Vonleh is supposed to be a stud, but when the rest of your offense is going to reliant on Yogi Ferrell and Will Sheehey you're in trouble.  The only exception is if Evan Gordon (transfer from Arizona State) ends up being a stud, but he's on his third team of his career for a reason.  Then again, he's already 22 (and a half) so maybe he'll have some of that Mbakwe stuff going on, although I don't know how much that'll help a guard.  Plus, I hate Indiana a lot, so there's that too.

-  If you want another team that could surprise, but in more of a rising from projected bubble team to a top 5 seed, you should consider Stanford.  Nobody really is predicting them to do much, but it's basically the third year with the same core group but they added Chasson Randle last year.  Two years ago they won the NIT, then had a really disappointing season landing back in the NIT last year.  They just couldn't get over the hump, losing something like six games by five points or fewer, and I think with another year, particularly for Randle, they'll win more of those games and contend for the Pac-12 title.  And then probably make Reid Travis fall more in love with them.  Great.  We're doomed.

-  Speaking of doomed, I just want to mention the loony bin that is the Gopher Hole, where apparently if Rashad Vaughn ends up at either Iowa State or UNLV those programs are clearly crooked.  Honest to god, the prestige rankings over there are something like:
1. Michigan State
2.  Ohio State
3. Indiana
4. Michigan
5.  Duke
6.  North Carolina
7.  Louisville (shot up the rankings this year)
8.  Kansas
9.  Minnesota

Seriously.  Then there's a huge gap and everyone else is in the 100s with Iowa State at the very bottom.  That place has gotten damn near unreadable due to all the Minnesota high school talent for 2014.  Did you know that any Minnesota kid, or any kid considering Minnesota, who ends up going to a different school was clearly enticed by some sort of illegal or shady benefit?  It's true.

-  Should I elaborate on my Wisconsin thoughts a bit?  Yeah, probably since I'm saying they're going to be really good but I hate them.  Assuming Josh Gasser is fully back, he and Ben Brust give the Badgers one of the best back courts in the country.  Wait let me clarify.  I don't mean one of the best back courts in the country in terms of talent or ability or anything like that, I mean best back courts as in best fits for their team's system.  Their boring, boring system.  I don't remember the last time they had two guards who fit this well, but this is like if Jordan Taylor and Trevon Hughes played together and were white.

Then you bring in Sam Dekker, who I think is going to be an absolute monster, and this is a crazy, crazy talented team for a Wisconsin club.  The only real concern is in the front court, except that's never a concern for Wisconsin because there's always some giant hulking shlub who can go from nothing to 10 & 8 in no time flat because Bo Ryan has some sort of grinchy magical powers when it comes to 6-8 frumps.  I don't know if it'll be an old guy (Frank Kaminsky/Zach Bohanon/Evan Anderson) or a new guy (Nigel Hayes) but the last thing you ever need to worry about when it comes to Wisconsin is them getting front court production.  Add in their best 3-man back court I can remember and their boring, boring system of boring their opponent to death and the Badgers are sneaky dangerous this year.  And that sucks.

-  Overall the Big 10 is going to be tough this year, but I see four pretty distinct tiers:
TIER 1:  Michigan State
TIER 2:  Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Iowa
TIER 3:  Illinois, Indiana, Purdue, Minnesota
TIER 4:  Northwestern, Nebraska, Penn State

There's some chance for movement between these of course - Michigan State, Ohio State, or Wisconsin could end up as good as Michigan State.  Iowa or Illinois could drop.  Northwestern could jump up, but pretty much this is how I see it so I guess I'm saying the Gophers could finish anywhere from 6th to 10th, and because their schedule is so weak this year it's going to be an uphill battle to get to the NCAA Tournament again.  Obviously not impossible or anything, but keep an eye on the Maui tournament - the results there could end up being huge for the Gophers' RPI.





-  Your most likely high profile coach to get canned this year is Rick Barnes at Texas which makes sense because he's a terrible game coach.  He was always a hell of a recruiter and rode those abilities to a stretch of five Sweet 16s in eight years, but the Longhorns missed the NCAA Tournament last year (for the first time since 1998, but still it was pretty bad) with a losing season and they're poised to have an even worse year this season.  Myck Kabongo left for the NBA (or wherever, considering he didn't get drafted) and Julien Lewis and Shelden McClellan transferred, Ioannis Papapetrou signed to play pro ball overseas, and Javan Felix is injured and out for an indefinite amount of time.  With a not very strong recruiting class coming in this is going to be an ugly year.  Maybe his past success combined with the current rough circumstances will buy him some more time, but Texas is not a very patient school and also Rick Barnes is almost worse than Bruce Weber.

-  As far as Kentucky goes this year, I know a lot of people are ready to hand them the title since they have the best recruiting class of all-time coming in and some established talent already in place and frankly it's not a bad call.  It really is the greatest collection of talent I can remember in college basketball in the early entry era, at least on paper.  Calipari showed how this kind of plan can work two years ago when he won the national title, but he's had the same basic play every since he came to Kentucky and still only has the one title in four years, while missing the tournament altogether last season.

I'm not saying they shouldn't be the favorite, but there is some truth to the old saying, "not enough basketballs to go around."  That Kentucky team that won the National Championship was supremely talented, but that talent came mainly in the form of players who could impact the game without needing the ball.  Anthony Davis was a defensive force, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist was an all-around stud, Marquis Teague was happy to let others take the shots, and even Doron Lamb and Terrence Jones had no problem taking a back seat when necessary for the good of the team.  That was the problem with the John Wall team (a team that, granted, made the Elite 8) - Wall, Eric Bledsoe, Patrick Patterson, and DeMarcus Cousins were all ball dominating players.  I'm interested to see where this new group falls, because the talent level really is insane, and like nothing we've ever seen before.


-   One of the unintended consequences of all this conference realignment stuff going on is the complete weakening of the mid-majors as the bigger conference get stronger by pilfering the top programs from all over the country.  The only mid-majors worth a damn (WCC, A-10, Missouri Valley, and Mountain West if you consider them a mid-major) were either strengthened or completely untouched by realignment.  Look at once strong conferences like Conference USA, the Colonial, and the Horizon have been gutted. 

C-USA has become 16 crappy teams, everyone has fled the Colonial to the point where the team that just joined up, College of Charleston, is probably the most historically successful program in the conference, and the Horizon is now looking at Wright State and Cleveland State as it's shining stars.  Perhaps the worst is the WAC, which was never you know, awesome or anything, but it has been completely gutted.  The #1 team is now New Mexico State, but even worse the #2 squad is Idaho or Cal State Bakersfield.  Bakersfield!  I'm not even sure if any of these teams here outside of NMSU have ever been to the NCAA Tournament.  I mean they probably have or something, but I'll be damned if I remember.  Sure, this all makes for better games in the major conferences, but I'm a little sad about how crappy all the mid-majors are now.  Well, I'm over it now.

-   There is now a team in D-I basketball called the University of the Incarnate Word Cardinals (of course they're the Cardinals).  They're ineligible for the NCAA Tournament this year as they make the transition to D-I, but they're joining the Southland along with Abilene Christian and Houston Baptist.  Soon it seems the Southland will be called the Holy Conference.  Or something more clever than that.  Shut up I'm tired.

-  Lastly, here's my shot at your projected NCAA Tournament teams by conference.  We'll see how I do:
ACC (5):  Duke, Syracuse, UNC, Virginia, Notre Dame
AAC (4):  Louisville, Memphis, UCONN, Cincinnati
A-10 (3):  VCU, LaSalle, St. Louis
America East (1):  Stony Brook
Atlantic Sun (1):  Florida Gulf Coast
Big East (5):  Georgetown, Marquette, Villanova, Creighton
Big 10 (5):  Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Iowa, Indiana
Big 12 (5):  Kansas, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Baylor, Iowa State
Big Sky (1):  Weber State
Big South (1):  High Point
Big West (1):  Long Beach
C-USA (1):  Louisiana Tech
Colonial (1):  Drexel
Horizon (1):  Wright State
Ivy (1):  Harvard
Mountain West (4):  New Mexico, UNLV, Utah State, Boise State
Missouri Valley (2):  Wichita State, Indiana State
MAC (1):  Akron
MAAC (1):  Manhattan
MEAC (1):  Morgan State
NEC (1):  Bryant
Ohio Valley (1):  Belmont
Pac-12 (5):  Arizona, Oregon, UCLA, Colorado, Stanford
Patriot (1):  Lafayette
SEC (6):  Kentucky, Florida, Tennessee, Alabama, LSU, Missouri
SoCon (1):  Elon
Southland (1):  Houston State
Summit (1):  Denver
Sun Belt (1):  Western Kentucky
SWAC (1):  Texas Southern
WAC (1):  New Mexico State
WCC (2):  Gonzaga, BYU
 
You know what's crazy?  When I did this without worrying about counting how many bids I was giving out on my first pass I came out with 67 teams.  Just had to add one to round it out.   I ended up making it Indiana which was perfect because I didn't feel good about just five teams coming out of the Big 10, but I have no idea who the sixth one will be.  Indiana, like I said, has a million question marks, I hate Illinois, and I don't think Purdue or Minnesota have the pieces.  Whatever.  I'm pretty dumb anyway so say la vee.