Thursday's Tournaments - The Stragglers get Going

The Gophers won, yay!  Lafayette to the Big Dance, yay?  I don't have to write any more of these previews after today, yay!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



AMERICAN CONFERENCE:
The American plays some ugly basketball.  Well no, not really, but they play a real distinct grind it out, ultra defensive style that's reminiscent of those horrendous Knicks/Magic games from however many years ago.  Cincinnati, Memphis, UCONN, SMU, Temple, and Tulsa are all in the top 72 in defensive efficiency, with three of those teams in the top 24.  Add in a lot of sub 250 tempo rankings and some worse than 150 offensive ratings and you get some offensively challenged games.  I mean, it works, seeing as how UCONN won the title last year and they'll probably get three teams in the NCAA Tournament this year, but it's not exactly aesthetically pleasing.

FAVORITE:  Southern Methodist.  SMU was my sleeper pick to win the National Championship last spring when the early odds came out.  At 33-1 I thought they had the right combination of returning players, new players including a possible super star, and a good coach and system (and there was still the possibility they'd get Myles Turner).  Well they didn't get Turner and that potential superstar signed in China.  Then one newcomer, Justin Martin a double digit scorer from Xavier, left, returning guard and double digit scorer Keith Frazier was bounced for academics, and returning double digit scorer Markus Kennedy was suspended for the first semester (not necessarily in that order).  Despite that mess, the Mustangs finished the year 24-6 and 15-3 in a pretty good American Conference.  This is a really good overall team, ranking 26th in kenpom's ratings.

SLEEPER:  UCONN.  You have to pick UCONN, right?  This just seems like the thing they do, with Shabazz Napier morphing into Kemba Walker and now hopefully (for them) Ryan Boatright morphing into Napier (did I forget a Jeremy Lamb in there?  Maybe).  Doesn't seem likely this year since this version of the Huskies is probably the worst since 2007 team, but you never know witha  guy like Boatright.

THE PICK:  Temple.  I like Temple here because things seem to be coming together.  The Owls have won ten of twelve, including wins over Cincinnati, Memphis, and UCONN and although most of those wins did come against bottom tier teams they won nearly all of them by double digits, and their two losses were to SMU and Tulsa on the road and that Tulsa team was desperate for that win.  Their offense is pretty crappy and they're one of the worst shooting teams in the country, but they make up for that with an extremely stingy defense (8th in DeFF in the country).  They also don't turn it over and hit the offensive boards well so their kind of a garbage team, but in this kind of conference that can work.


BIG SKY:
The Big Sky seems pretty fun.  A nice mix of hippies (Sacramento State, Eastern Washington, Portland State), militia men (Montana, Montana State, North Dakota), and Mormons (Weber State, Southern Utah, Idaho, Idaho State).  They should throw a big mixer for fans of all these teams and just kind of see what happens.  What could go wrong?

FAVORITE:  Montana.  The Grizzlies grabbed the #1 seed thanks to a 14-4 conference record highlighted by 7-1 closing stretch that included a win over their closest competition, Eastern Washington.  The Grizz are highlighted by two First Team All-Big Skyers in Jordan Gregory and Martin Breuning, both of whom scored north of 16 points per game, an offense that's very dependent on the three, and a bad defense that did manage to tighten up during conference play to rank #1 in DeFF in Big Sky play despite bad numbers overall.  Sounds like a fun team (and they lost in double OT against both Cal and Boise State, so they might be ok.  They also gave up 110 points to Davidson).

SLEEPER:  Weber State.  For whatever reason, the Wildcats rise in March.  They have won four Big Sky tournaments since 2007, twice when they weren't the #1 seed, and they have a career record of 6-16 in the big dance which may not sound like much but for a team on this level nationally those six wins feel pretty impressive.  They finished runner-up in the CBI two years ago and followed that up with an NCAA berth and an impressive showing against Arizona last year so they're trending up - provided you ignore their 13-16 record this year, which I am.  Weber State is great great great! (my wife went here one semester, FYI, so I am not rational about them.)  Also they'll need to upset Montana in round 1, so this is probably not my best pick.

THE PICK:  Eastern Washington.  If I decide not to believe that Montana suddenly fixed its defense, and I don't, I need a different pick so why not the Eagles?  They also won 14 conference games, won 23 total games, have a nice shiny win over Indiana, won at Montana earlier, and sport the nation's leading scorer in Tyler Harvey (22.9ppg).  Harvey is one of the rare big-time scorers at a small school who also does it efficiently, ranking #168 in the country in O-rating thanks to dead-eye shooting from three (43%) at a high volume (over 9 attempts per game).  He dropped 25 against the Hoosiers, and had one stretch this season where he hit 26 of 36 threes over four games.  Sound like the kind of guy who could carry a good team to a conference tournament title?


BIG WEST:
The Big West has generally been a solid, underrated conference, and losing their premiere program, Pacific, in 2013 hasn't changed that as the schools (Big West really just means small California schools + Hawaii) have all generally stepped up their game.  UC-Santa Barbara and Long Beach have been good for a while now, but this year they found themselves behind UC-Davis and UC-Irvine, and not because they slipped.  Davis is the #1 three point shooting team in the country and Irvine almost (yes, almost) beat several middle tier big conference foes.  Whoever comes out of here will be a major test for somebody in round 1.

FAVORITE:  UC-Davis.  Davis, who I don't think even because a full D-I school until maybe 10 years ago, coasted to the Big West regular season title with a 14-2 record behind Big West player of the year Corey Hawkins (sweet basketball name here).  Hawkins led the conference in scoring at just north of 20 points per game, and his 49.7% three point shooting was a big reason why the Aggies finished third in the country in effective field goal percentage, but three other bombers hitting better than 40% from three are a big part of that as well.  UC-Davis struggles in a lot of basketball areas, but man can they shoot the hell out of the ball.

SLEEPER:  UC-Santa Barbara.  The Gauchos won this thing in 2010 and 2011 behind Orlando Johnson, who has had some NBA time here and there, but they've been shut out since then and I'm guessing former Saints tight end and current UCSB coach Boo Williams is ready to get back to the Big Dance.  They might not have an Orlando Johnson this year, but they do have two All First Team Big West performers in Michael Bryson (14.1 pts, 4.1 rebs) and Alan Williams (16.8 pts, 11.9 rebs) as well as an honorable mention for John Green (11.0 pts, 4.1 rebs), so there is a lot of talent here (it's also Williams's's's third time making an Big West team).  I remember watching Williams last year, guy is an absolute beast.

THE PICK:  UC-Santa Barbara.  UC-Davis's shooting is super impressive, but I can't trust that to hold up over an entire tournament.  The Gauchos, on the other hand, are loaded with talent and not only do they have Williams on both ends (also led the Big West at 2.0 bpg) but they have a decent defense overall and a more balanced offense.  They also have the Big West Best Hustle Player Award Winner (yes that's a real thing) for the second straight season in guard Zalmico Harmon (6.2 pts, 3.7 assists).  I know what you're wondering and no, he is black.  White guys won the award the previous six seasons, as far back as I could find.


WAC:
Quick, name three teams in the WAC.......Actually I'm not even sure if I could have done it, and as you can see I have a serious college basketball obsession problem.  All the conference realignment that's gone down lately helped some conference's relative strength and weakened others, but it most cases it's either minor or could be temporary or both.  In the WAC's case, however, it was completely nuked.  Back in the day it used to be probably an upper tier mid-major.  Now it's become the home of the dregs with nowhere else to go:  Missouri-Kansas City, Grand Canyon, Texas Pan American, and Chicago State to name a few.  Pretty gross, but at least there's as super clear favorite.

FAVORITE:  New Mexico State.  While everyone else fled the WAC, New Mexico State stuck around and by default is now the power program of the conference.  Not that it's strictly by default - the Aggies have won the last 3 WAC Tournaments and 4 of the last 5.  They haven't won an NCAA Tournament game during that run, but it's still impressive.  Kenpom names 3 of it's Top 5 WAC players as Aggies, and their 13-1 record was a full five games better than second place Grand Canyon and UMKC so yeah, they're  pretty prohibitive favorite.

SLEEPER:  Grand Canyon.  Remember how I mentioned this conference was NMSU and then nobody else?  The Aggies are ranked in the top 140 in offensive efficiency and top 80 in defensive efficiency this year, the only other WAC team to rank in the top 196 in anything is Grand Canyon with a 109th ranked offense.  Of course, they couple that with a defense than ranks #342, which is ridiculous, but that's how little I have to go on when trying to come up with a sleeper.  Could have gone Seattle too since they're the only WAC team to beat New Mexico State.  Whatever.

THE PICK:  New Mexico State.  I said whatever.

SUN BELT:
Conference realignment may have screwed up the WAC, but that wasn't the only conference to see some major changes.  The Sun Belt lost what was most likely it's most premiere program, Western Kentucky, to Conference USA, but this year's regular season winner and top seed, Georgia State, came over in the same realignment carousel from the Colonial.  They've now won two consecutive regular season crowns, so they've slid in for the Hilltoppers without any problem.

FAVORITE:  Georgia State.  Georgia State has been a little bit of a darling among those who pay too much attention to small conference teams (and gamblers) because of their guards.  Each of the last two years they've been able to team up coach's son and offensive dynamo R.J. Hunter (19.7ppg, 3.8apg) and former super recruit and Kentucky and NC State guard Ryan Harrow (20.2ppg, 4.0apg) and they've done some good things.  Last year they steamrolled the Sun Belt to a 17-1 one mark and one of the top offensive in the country, but it all fell apart with an overtime loss in the Sun Belt tournament to Elfrid Payton's Louisiana-Lafayette team.  This year they took a bit of a step back at 15-5 but this is still a really good team who could do some damage, and another team I really hope makes it.

SLEEPER:  Louisiana-Monroe.  The Warhawks finished 14-6 in Sun Belt play, and they really stand out because in a conference full of helter skelter, pressing type teams (the conference has three teams in the Top 25 in adjusted tempo) they play extremely slow (#326 in tempo).  They also cannot be sped up.  They never once surpassed 68 possessions in a non-OT conference game no matter who they played, completely dictating tempo no matter what.  They also play a nice, tough defense.  They cannot score, and more specifically cannot shoot at all, but hey, the can control tempo.  Sometimes that's enough.  They also beat Georgia State just one week ago.

THE PICK:  Georgia State.  We cannot lose another team who could make a mini-run.  Murray State is out and Iona is out, and the majority of the already qualified teams are really not very good.  The Panthers are one of our few low major candidates left who you can say "yeah I could see them in the Sweet 16" and that stuff is really fun.  Go Panthers.




And that's it.  Next thing you know, it's Selection Sunday.  Away we go.

Sweet Sixteen Predictions (Friday)

Well I couldn't have read that Wisconsin/Baylor game any worse.  I expected Frank Kaminsky to get killed, but instead he did the killing.  It was like watching The Others and being like, man this is way creepy poor Nicole Kidman but then bam it turns out Nicole Kidman is dead the whole time.  Oh, spoiler alert.  Anyway thanks to Florida coming through, a couple over/unders, and hitting two middles with second half bets I overcame the big Baylor loss and made a little bit of money.  Hopefully there's more to come tonight.

#11 Tennessee vs. #2 Michigan.
Advanced metrics absolutely love Tennessee.  They rank 16th in offensive points per possession and 17th in defensive points per possession.  The only other teams to rank in the top 20 in both this year are Wichita State, Florida, Virginia, and Louisville.  That's a pretty damn impressive group.  However I think this is a classic case of beating up on bad teams.  The Vols have a win over Virginia back in December, but do you know their next best win?  That win over a fading Iowa team.  Next up?  A win over a fading and overseeded UMass.  Then Georgia, LSU, and Arkansas.  See what I'm saying?  Yeah they've won three games to get here and that's impressive, but I am not loving them.

Michigan, on the other hand, seems to be peaking at the right time.  They destroyed both Wofford and Texas and everybody's clicking.  Tennessee has overwhelmed their opponents with their size and rebounding so far, but that won't happen against Michigan.  Jordan Morgan and Jon Horford might suck offensively but they can play defense.  From there I think Michigan's perimeter guys can out score Tennessee's.  I just think Michigan is a far superior team, so I'm going with Michigan -2 for four units

#7 UCONN vs. #3 Iowa State.
The loss of Georges Niang didn't hurt Iowa State against North Carolina, but it very well could against UCONN.   Without him the Cyclones are very small, and although Melvin Ejim and Dustin Hogue play bigger than their size would suggest I'm not so sure that gets it done against a more rough and tumble former Big East team.  It will also allow UCONN to go small with what is probably their best lineup, and one they have only been able to use about 5% of the time over the last 5 games because they generally need to have either Amida Brimah or Phillip Nolan in there at center for extra size.  That's not really a concern against a Niang-less Iowa State, and Brimah's foul issues become much less important.

Then of course there's the whole Kemba Walker thing Shabazz Napier has going on right now.  He's put up 24-8-6 against St. Joe's and 25-5-3 against Villanova despite missing a huge chunk of the first half.  And man did you see some of those shots against Nova?  Right now he's fearless and he's hot, and that is a dangerous combination to run up against.  DeAndre Daniels seems to be peaking at the right time, and Ryan Boatright played as well as I've ever seen him play against Villanova.  It wouldn't shock me to see this team make the Final Four.  Sorry Clones.  UCONN +2 for 3 units, and also a unit on the over 146 - ISU likes to get up and down, and I expect UCONN to get in the spirit.

#8 Kentucky vs. #4 Louisville.
Easily my most anticipated match-up of the weekend, and also the hardest to read for me. Before the tournament started I would have gone with Louisville -4.5 without hesitation, but Kentucky's win over Wichita was one of the most impressive top to bottom games I've seen anybody play this year. Everyone said at the beginning of the year that Kentucky was the most talented team in the country and if their talent came together they'd be the team to beat in the tournament, and that is still the case with at least five guys who are likely to be NBA first round picks in either this year's draft or the next.  So that's the question, has this team now come together enough to beat the defending champs who, with the exception of the Manhattan game, have been rolling?

Well, it was just the sixth time this year a team scored 70+ against Wichita, and Kentucky shot 54% while doing it so they played pretty much a perfect shooting game on the offensive end.  With Andrew Harrison's six turnovers and a total of 11 for the Wildcats vs. just 11 assists that tells me they didn't suddenly "get it" and considering six of those assists came from Julius Randle it's pretty clear the Kentucky guards still don't really know how to run a team.  Another big piece of Kentucky's win was their 22 offensive rebounds, but the presence of Montrezl Harrell for Louisville should guarantee that at a minimum that number is cut in half, and the rest of Louisville's guys should be able to keep Kentucky off the boards better than Wichita did.  Plus when it comes down to Calipari vs. Pitino with  almost a week to prepare, I'll take Pitino every time.  Louisville -4.5 for one unit and another unit on the over 139.  Louisville tries to speed teams up and that should work beautifully against Kentucky.

#4 Michigan State vs. #1 Virginia.
People really seem to underrate Virginia this year, but a 16-2 run through the ACC, an ACC Tournament Championship, and a thorough thrashing of Memphis (with a mini scare against Coastal thrown in there) is one hell of a run.  They've mainly done it with an incredible defense and a slow pace that left them allowing the fewest points per game in the country at 55.5.  They also score at an efficient rate, a top 10 in the country rate, although they don't shoot the ball particularly well and can be prone to shooting slumps.

The Spartans should be able to handle them, however, because they're one of the best shooting teams in the country (13th by eFG%) and the execute extremely well and move the ball well (62% of baskets come from an assist, also 13th).  I tried to find teams that have a similar profile that Virginia played this year and the closest two I could find were Duke and Wisconsin, team's that gave Virginia two of its six losses this year, and Michigan State is both a better rebounding and defensive team than either Duke or Virginia.  Plus the Spartans put up those impressive numbers while rarely being healthy, and now they are.  The pace shouldn't bother Sparty either, they can grind it out with the best of them.  One unit on Michigan State -2, and two units on the under 127.

Words on the NCAA Basketball Season

With little to no action on the recruiting front (although our new best friend Nate Mason was on campus this weekend) and nothing worth talking Twins about, I haven't posted in a while.  But here I am, watching both baseball and football, and I was missing you guys so I should write some words.

-  Ok so spoiler alert, I'm pretty lazy busy now a days and don't get to post as much.  Therefore, I likely won't be doing that thing where I preview a whole bunch of college basketball teams this year because that takes a shit ton of time and I don't think anybody reads them anyway.  But I feel I must call your attention to a team that is not getting the respect they deserve, a team I have ranked as the 3rd best in the country behind Michigan State and Louisville - The Oklahoma State Cowboys.

Most prediction things I've looked at have them somewhere in the 20s, and that is just way way way wrong.   Did we all forget just how far one great player can take a team in college basketball?  Carmelo Anthony?  Danny Manning?  Hell, Kemba Walker?  Marcus Smart is one that level.  But lest you think this is a one person team, Markel Brown and LeBryan Nash are here too.  The only thing missing is a good big man, but they have a ton of options so if they can cobble together forty minutes of competent big man play each game (they only need one "big guy" because Nash is big enough to play the 4 unless they need to go big) this team is going to be a serious, serious contender.  Currently 25-1 or 40-1 to win the whole thing at some books.  Get in there now.

-  Speaking of, here are your contenders this year:  Oklahoma State, Michigan State, Louisville, Kentucky, Duke, Arizona, Kansas, Syracuse, VCU and Wisconsin (gross, but true.  I'm high on Dekker).  That's it.  I think UCONN could be a bit of a sleeper too, seems like everybody has forgotten about them but they have a pretty nice squad coming back.  On the opposite end, I think Indiana falls off a cliff.  I know Noah Vonleh is supposed to be a stud, but when the rest of your offense is going to reliant on Yogi Ferrell and Will Sheehey you're in trouble.  The only exception is if Evan Gordon (transfer from Arizona State) ends up being a stud, but he's on his third team of his career for a reason.  Then again, he's already 22 (and a half) so maybe he'll have some of that Mbakwe stuff going on, although I don't know how much that'll help a guard.  Plus, I hate Indiana a lot, so there's that too.

-  If you want another team that could surprise, but in more of a rising from projected bubble team to a top 5 seed, you should consider Stanford.  Nobody really is predicting them to do much, but it's basically the third year with the same core group but they added Chasson Randle last year.  Two years ago they won the NIT, then had a really disappointing season landing back in the NIT last year.  They just couldn't get over the hump, losing something like six games by five points or fewer, and I think with another year, particularly for Randle, they'll win more of those games and contend for the Pac-12 title.  And then probably make Reid Travis fall more in love with them.  Great.  We're doomed.

-  Speaking of doomed, I just want to mention the loony bin that is the Gopher Hole, where apparently if Rashad Vaughn ends up at either Iowa State or UNLV those programs are clearly crooked.  Honest to god, the prestige rankings over there are something like:
1. Michigan State
2.  Ohio State
3. Indiana
4. Michigan
5.  Duke
6.  North Carolina
7.  Louisville (shot up the rankings this year)
8.  Kansas
9.  Minnesota

Seriously.  Then there's a huge gap and everyone else is in the 100s with Iowa State at the very bottom.  That place has gotten damn near unreadable due to all the Minnesota high school talent for 2014.  Did you know that any Minnesota kid, or any kid considering Minnesota, who ends up going to a different school was clearly enticed by some sort of illegal or shady benefit?  It's true.

-  Should I elaborate on my Wisconsin thoughts a bit?  Yeah, probably since I'm saying they're going to be really good but I hate them.  Assuming Josh Gasser is fully back, he and Ben Brust give the Badgers one of the best back courts in the country.  Wait let me clarify.  I don't mean one of the best back courts in the country in terms of talent or ability or anything like that, I mean best back courts as in best fits for their team's system.  Their boring, boring system.  I don't remember the last time they had two guards who fit this well, but this is like if Jordan Taylor and Trevon Hughes played together and were white.

Then you bring in Sam Dekker, who I think is going to be an absolute monster, and this is a crazy, crazy talented team for a Wisconsin club.  The only real concern is in the front court, except that's never a concern for Wisconsin because there's always some giant hulking shlub who can go from nothing to 10 & 8 in no time flat because Bo Ryan has some sort of grinchy magical powers when it comes to 6-8 frumps.  I don't know if it'll be an old guy (Frank Kaminsky/Zach Bohanon/Evan Anderson) or a new guy (Nigel Hayes) but the last thing you ever need to worry about when it comes to Wisconsin is them getting front court production.  Add in their best 3-man back court I can remember and their boring, boring system of boring their opponent to death and the Badgers are sneaky dangerous this year.  And that sucks.

-  Overall the Big 10 is going to be tough this year, but I see four pretty distinct tiers:
TIER 1:  Michigan State
TIER 2:  Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Iowa
TIER 3:  Illinois, Indiana, Purdue, Minnesota
TIER 4:  Northwestern, Nebraska, Penn State

There's some chance for movement between these of course - Michigan State, Ohio State, or Wisconsin could end up as good as Michigan State.  Iowa or Illinois could drop.  Northwestern could jump up, but pretty much this is how I see it so I guess I'm saying the Gophers could finish anywhere from 6th to 10th, and because their schedule is so weak this year it's going to be an uphill battle to get to the NCAA Tournament again.  Obviously not impossible or anything, but keep an eye on the Maui tournament - the results there could end up being huge for the Gophers' RPI.





-  Your most likely high profile coach to get canned this year is Rick Barnes at Texas which makes sense because he's a terrible game coach.  He was always a hell of a recruiter and rode those abilities to a stretch of five Sweet 16s in eight years, but the Longhorns missed the NCAA Tournament last year (for the first time since 1998, but still it was pretty bad) with a losing season and they're poised to have an even worse year this season.  Myck Kabongo left for the NBA (or wherever, considering he didn't get drafted) and Julien Lewis and Shelden McClellan transferred, Ioannis Papapetrou signed to play pro ball overseas, and Javan Felix is injured and out for an indefinite amount of time.  With a not very strong recruiting class coming in this is going to be an ugly year.  Maybe his past success combined with the current rough circumstances will buy him some more time, but Texas is not a very patient school and also Rick Barnes is almost worse than Bruce Weber.

-  As far as Kentucky goes this year, I know a lot of people are ready to hand them the title since they have the best recruiting class of all-time coming in and some established talent already in place and frankly it's not a bad call.  It really is the greatest collection of talent I can remember in college basketball in the early entry era, at least on paper.  Calipari showed how this kind of plan can work two years ago when he won the national title, but he's had the same basic play every since he came to Kentucky and still only has the one title in four years, while missing the tournament altogether last season.

I'm not saying they shouldn't be the favorite, but there is some truth to the old saying, "not enough basketballs to go around."  That Kentucky team that won the National Championship was supremely talented, but that talent came mainly in the form of players who could impact the game without needing the ball.  Anthony Davis was a defensive force, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist was an all-around stud, Marquis Teague was happy to let others take the shots, and even Doron Lamb and Terrence Jones had no problem taking a back seat when necessary for the good of the team.  That was the problem with the John Wall team (a team that, granted, made the Elite 8) - Wall, Eric Bledsoe, Patrick Patterson, and DeMarcus Cousins were all ball dominating players.  I'm interested to see where this new group falls, because the talent level really is insane, and like nothing we've ever seen before.


-   One of the unintended consequences of all this conference realignment stuff going on is the complete weakening of the mid-majors as the bigger conference get stronger by pilfering the top programs from all over the country.  The only mid-majors worth a damn (WCC, A-10, Missouri Valley, and Mountain West if you consider them a mid-major) were either strengthened or completely untouched by realignment.  Look at once strong conferences like Conference USA, the Colonial, and the Horizon have been gutted. 

C-USA has become 16 crappy teams, everyone has fled the Colonial to the point where the team that just joined up, College of Charleston, is probably the most historically successful program in the conference, and the Horizon is now looking at Wright State and Cleveland State as it's shining stars.  Perhaps the worst is the WAC, which was never you know, awesome or anything, but it has been completely gutted.  The #1 team is now New Mexico State, but even worse the #2 squad is Idaho or Cal State Bakersfield.  Bakersfield!  I'm not even sure if any of these teams here outside of NMSU have ever been to the NCAA Tournament.  I mean they probably have or something, but I'll be damned if I remember.  Sure, this all makes for better games in the major conferences, but I'm a little sad about how crappy all the mid-majors are now.  Well, I'm over it now.

-   There is now a team in D-I basketball called the University of the Incarnate Word Cardinals (of course they're the Cardinals).  They're ineligible for the NCAA Tournament this year as they make the transition to D-I, but they're joining the Southland along with Abilene Christian and Houston Baptist.  Soon it seems the Southland will be called the Holy Conference.  Or something more clever than that.  Shut up I'm tired.

-  Lastly, here's my shot at your projected NCAA Tournament teams by conference.  We'll see how I do:
ACC (5):  Duke, Syracuse, UNC, Virginia, Notre Dame
AAC (4):  Louisville, Memphis, UCONN, Cincinnati
A-10 (3):  VCU, LaSalle, St. Louis
America East (1):  Stony Brook
Atlantic Sun (1):  Florida Gulf Coast
Big East (5):  Georgetown, Marquette, Villanova, Creighton
Big 10 (5):  Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Iowa, Indiana
Big 12 (5):  Kansas, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Baylor, Iowa State
Big Sky (1):  Weber State
Big South (1):  High Point
Big West (1):  Long Beach
C-USA (1):  Louisiana Tech
Colonial (1):  Drexel
Horizon (1):  Wright State
Ivy (1):  Harvard
Mountain West (4):  New Mexico, UNLV, Utah State, Boise State
Missouri Valley (2):  Wichita State, Indiana State
MAC (1):  Akron
MAAC (1):  Manhattan
MEAC (1):  Morgan State
NEC (1):  Bryant
Ohio Valley (1):  Belmont
Pac-12 (5):  Arizona, Oregon, UCLA, Colorado, Stanford
Patriot (1):  Lafayette
SEC (6):  Kentucky, Florida, Tennessee, Alabama, LSU, Missouri
SoCon (1):  Elon
Southland (1):  Houston State
Summit (1):  Denver
Sun Belt (1):  Western Kentucky
SWAC (1):  Texas Southern
WAC (1):  New Mexico State
WCC (2):  Gonzaga, BYU
 
You know what's crazy?  When I did this without worrying about counting how many bids I was giving out on my first pass I came out with 67 teams.  Just had to add one to round it out.   I ended up making it Indiana which was perfect because I didn't feel good about just five teams coming out of the Big 10, but I have no idea who the sixth one will be.  Indiana, like I said, has a million question marks, I hate Illinois, and I don't think Purdue or Minnesota have the pieces.  Whatever.  I'm pretty dumb anyway so say la vee.

DWG College Basketball Preview: Teams #46-39

Man weather is such a dick.  The Cards/Giants are still sitting there, like 3 hours after their delay started, waiting to resume play in the 8th and the Yanks/Tigers has been postponed now until tomorrow.  Sucks.  So here's something else that's a thing you could do:

46.  Detroit Titans.  Ray McCallum is still there.  Three years ago two big-time recruits signed with smaller schools to play for their dads.  One (Trey Ziegler at CMU) saw his father fired after two dismal seasons and bolted to Pitt, the other is McCallum and after advancing to the NCAA Tournament by winning the Horizon tournament last year the Titans are looking to do even more.  There are some notable losses, particularly size-wise in Eli Holman, but there are a couple of senior forwards capable of putting up good numbers who should help balance things with McCallum.  Plus they got Juwon Howard, Jr. this year.  Juwon Howard Junior!  Hell yeah!

45.  Tennessee Volunteers.  Bruce Pearl left Tennessee looking like a mess, but behind some solid leadership from Cuonzo Martin (CUONZO!) they actually had a pretty solid year last season (NIT berth) and now return almost the entire team for another go at it.  And guys, their PF Jeronne Maymon is just a monster, and out of nowhere, too.  He was nothing, and then he just exploded into a guy who had double figure points or rebounds (or both) in the Vols last 15 games last year and put up double doubles against three of the teams toughest opponents last season (Kentucky, Memphis, and Duke) including a 32 point, 20 rebound performance against Memphis.  He's very Mbakwellian on the glass, just attacking every rebound as if his very life, nay, the fate of the planet, rested on him getting that ball.  Tennessee was always able to recruit under Pearl but he was such as shitty coach they were chronically underachieved.  Martin is a far better coach, and if he continues to get the same caliber of players to come to Tennessee this team is going to be a major player going forward. 

44.  UCONN Huskies.  UCONN can't play in the postseason this year because of I don't know grades or some dumb arbitrary NCAA rule that punishes players who had nothing to do with the infraction, and as a result of that had to watch Alex Oriakhi and Roscoe Smith bolt to Missouri and UNLV respectively (along with Andre Drummond and Jeremy Lamb to the NBA) and will be going with a new coach in Kevin Ollie, but there's still plenty of talent here to screw over at least a Big East team or two's at-large hopes with some big wins.  That is, of course, if DeAndre Daniels can become what he was supposed to become.  Daniels was a top-10 recruit last season who chose UCONN over Kentucky, Florida, Duke, and Kansas but ended up buried on the bench much of last season.  If he can blossom with a bigger role and mesh with outstanding guard tandem Ryan Boatright and Shabazz Napier the Huskies could be awfully good.  Of course without cheater Calhoun who knows how this all shakes out.  They could win four games and I wouldn't be surprised.

43.  Davidson Wildcats.  Davidson is a little bit annoying to me in their consistency, but here they are, back again, heavy favorites to win the SoCon and just good enough to scare or beat a team or two once they inevitably get to the NCAA Tournament as an 11 seed.  Pretty much the entire team returns from last season when they put a scare in Louisville in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, but what's interesting about this iteration of the Wildcats is rather than being overly dependent on guards and 3-pointers, their two best players are a pair of forwards (including the SoCon Player of the Year and the other guy might actually be better) who can hit it, but don't need to.  They leave that to the 200 guards Davidson has running around.  Again.

42.  Harvard Crimson.  Well Tommy Amaker's got a nice little thing going here.  In 2010 they made the CIT.  In 2011, the NIT after tying for the Ivy League crown and losing in a one game playoff.  Then last year they won the Ivy to make the NCAA Tournament, losing to fifth-seeded Vanderbilt by nine (yes, I picked Harvard).  They do lose last year's Ivy League Player of the Year, but have everybody else back and Nevermind somehow I missed that Harvard has a bunch of guys embroiled in an academic scandal including their best player and both co-captains who are no longer on the team so drop these guys off the list, bump everyone up one, and throw Northwestern at the end or something.  Gotta have some nerds, somehow.

41.  Florida State Seminoles.  Maybe I'm way off on FSU because they are 24th in the first Coaches' Poll that just came out, but I'm not seeing it.  Losing four starters including your entire inside presence in Bernard James and Xavier Gibson is, like sticking a paperclip into a power outlet, no picnic.  Yeah, they still have Michael Snaer and you know they'll be tenacious on defense and won't back down, but you know who else is tenacious and never backs down?  My two-year old, and by the end of most days he's either run into a wall face first or fallen off some random piece of furniture and landed on his head.  Every once in a while, however, he'll get a big win by throwing a matchbox car and hitting Mrs. W right in the face. 

40.  Murray State Racers.  Things could be a bit tougher for the Racers this year, what with losing three starters and having to deal with Belmont's move to the OVC, but Murray State has developed a "Gonzaga-lite" reputation for a reason.  They have a whole bunch of experienced seniors and generally play a deep bench so even if these guys don't have impressive stats you can bet they can play, and Murray State keeps bringing in solid recruiting classes to keep that pipeline going as well.  Not to mention they still have Isaiah Canaan who led them to the tournament last year, winning the OVC Player of the Year Award, and then promptly sucked (8-30 in two NCAA Tourney games).  Now a senior, Canaan should be able to do more assuming they get to that point again, because everyone knows that noted chokers always get better over time, right A-Rod?

39.  St. Joe's Hawks.  I actually feel like I might be underrating these guys a bit, because this team kind of has that feeling of building something that might be cresting this season.  Last season the Hawks won 20 games (9 in A-10 play) and snagged an NIT berth, not bad considering the two previous years they won 22 games combined.  Carl Jones, C.J. Aiken, and Langston Galloway (who you remember from such games as against the Gophers two straight years) are now in their third year playing together with Aiken growing into a force in the paint, Galloway developing into a dead-eye shooter from the wing, and Jones, well, he's pretty much the same chucker he's always been since he arrived in Philly and maybe these guys will be even better when he's gone next season (the other two are juniors) but whatever.  St. Joe's' has been crappy since Jameer Nelson and Delonte West left and now they have hope.  Can't you just let them have hope with their cheesesteaks?


Previous:
Teams #68-60
Teams #59-53
Teams #52-47

Week in Review - 1/18/2012

So do you think we'll hear a little bit of talk about a rematch, revenge, redemption, etc. the next couple of weeks?  Hey, at least David Tyree will probably get to be interviewed on TV again.


WHO WAS AWESOME

1. Joe Coleman.  No, I'm not actually giving all the credit to Coleman for the 3-game winning streak, but it's easy to notice that the streak started when he was put in the lineup. Coleman has an aggressiveness and a fearless streak to him that's pretty unique on this team (although I think Andre Hollins has some of it too, but just doesn't have the skill level to pull it off just yet), and it seems to be rubbing off a bit, particularly on Austin Hollins, but on pretty much the entire back court - even Maverick, although I'm not sure if that's a good thing.  I'm not sure if it was that more aggressive attitude or betting coaching by Tubby (who did, by the way, seem very engaged in the game for the first time in far too long), but when Northwestern went into that 1-3-1 I was ready for all kinds of collapse, but they handled it well.  I'm not saying they carved it up like a Thanksgiving taco buffet, but they were definitely more aggressive going into the gaps than the last several hundred years (and seriously, it's not a "trap at half court" 1-3-1, so you don't need to treat it that way).  Add in the defensive effort and this was one of the team's best games of the year.  The latest bracketology is out on ESPN.com and they currently have the Gophers in as an 11 seed.  I'm not sure they're there yet and there's plenty of work to do, but make no mistake, the Gophers are all set-up to disappoint.  Prove me wrong.  Please. 

2.  Timberwolves.  I didn't even know I missed the Timberwolves.  The wife and I watched the end of their big win against the Clippers, and when Kevin Love took that shot I put both arms in the air and when he hit it I turned to Mrs. W and said "Hell Yeah" or something similarly stupid, but the point isn't that I said something stupid, it's that I said anything at all (plus that arms in the air thing).  When is the last time I reacted to anything the T-Wolves did with anything other than laughter or indifference?  I have no idea.  I can't even remember the last time I got irritated.  Hell I can't really even remember the last time I watched an entire game and I've watched all or nearly all of three or four this year already.  I hate to jump on the Rubio bandwagon and give all the credit to one guy, but he makes them fun to watch, even in a loss, and he's made them a much better team than last year.  Even if the upside is an 8 seed an an early exit (and that might be pushing it), they're relevant, they're talked about, and they're entertaining.  What more could you ask for after the hell that team has been?

3.  Missouri Tigers.  After Saturday's win over Baylor I have now narrowed my possible National Champ pick to Kentucky or Missouri (Ohio State and Baylor are my other 2 Final Four picks right now) because that win answered every possible question I could have about the Tigers.  And really there weren't many questions, just two:  could they win against a tough team on the road (only road wins this year are Iowa State and Old Dominion with neutral court wins over Illinois, Notre Dame, and Cal) and how would they handle a team that could match there athleticism but with more size like Baylor (Ratliffe is Mizzou's only contributor over 6-6).  Just an awesome team.  And I'm trying to think of anybody else, but Phil Pressey has to be the best point guard in the country right?  I know you can get into the scoring point vs. pure point and Pressey probably isn't as good in either category as guys like Ashton Gibbs (scorer) or Kendall Marshall (pure), but combine the two and add in his elite level defense and I think he's gotta be the guy.

4.  Florida State.  Wow.  So after a last second three knocked off Duke in Cameron on Saturday, Florida State's last four games are the win at Duke, a win over Maryland, a win over North Carolina, and a win on the road at Va Tech.  All four impressive in their own way, but the win at Duke and the thrashing they gave UNC (remember they won 90-57) are two of the more impressive wins by anybody this year (although I'd give the nod to the Mizzou win referenced above).  What's even better for the Noles is that they've always been a great defensive squad (top 5 in defensive efficiency the last 3 years), but in their last few games the offense has shown up.  90 points vs. UNC?  84 vs. Maryland?  75 vs. Duke?  In all three cases that's a top 2 score against, put up by what was supposed to be a pretty crappy offense.  And since I don't really watch many FSU games I can't really pin it down, but it seems like a different Seminole is stepping up offensively in each game.  With that defense and there pretty good guards the Seminoles have March sleeper written all over them.  With a sharpie.  One of those cool glittery ones.

5.  Victor Cruz.  Yes, El Juegito finally gets a mention.  See, I'm a huge Hakeem Nicks fan, so I could easily convince myself that everything Cruz did was fluky.  Like when he burst onto the scene in Week 3 with 2 long touchdowns he only had one other catch and so obviously that was just a fluky lucky day.   Then after an 8 catch, 161 yard day he followed it up with a 2 for 12 day, so yeah, no worries, clearly just a fluke.  Then, and I'm just realizing this right now by looking at his game log, Cruz went the final 10 games of the season with at least five catches 9 times and at least 90 yards seven times with a 5-44 game in week 16 his only clunker.  He ended up 5th amongst wideouts in receptions this year and third in yards, not to mention tied for fourth in touchdowns.  Crazy.  And after his 10 catch, 152 yard game this weekend against 49ers where he was basically their only offensive weapon I'm finally ready to admit that he's pretty damn good.  He's no Hakeem Nicks, but he's a lot better than I've given him credit for.


WHO SUCKED

1.  Billy Cundiff.  So let's get this straight -  your defense manages to keep one of the best offensive teams in the league under control, your much maligned QB keeps you in the game and then, miraculously, manages to drive your team all the way down the field and into chip shot field goal range to tie the game and you shank it worse than Dobby got shanked?  It was practically an extra point and I think Cundiff missed it further to the left than how far away the spot he kicked from was.  But, I guess that's what happens when you trust a kicker from the Missouri Valley Conference, because everyone knows that other than UNI's upset of Kansas a couple of years ago the MVC has never produced anything that didn't suck.  Plus this guy was Dawger's kicker on his fantasy team, so between the curse of Dawger (which is a real thing, just ask Darren McFadden, Josh Freeman, Rodney Williams last year, or basically any Twin) and the Drake thing this guy was pretty much screwed.

2.  UCONN Huskies.  Add the Huskies to the list of team's in free fall.  The warning signs were there after UCONN lost to both Seton Hall and Rutgers earlier in the month, but since Ryan Boatright was shut down by the NCAA they beat Notre Dame, but have now lost their last two - a home game vs. Cincy and on the road at Tennessee who is terrible.  What's funny is Boatright, who I desperately wanted to be a Gopher, plays the fourth most minutes on the team while the two starting guards, Jeremy Lamb and Shabazz Napier, play the most minutes.  So basically this team is three guards + Andre Drummond and that's it (actually the rest of their guys would beat the Gophers, but you get my point).  So what do you get if you take something with four legs and chop one off?  A Def Leppard drummer, the guy who killed Indiana Jones's wife, or a really funny looking dog, that's what.

3.  New York Knicks.  Wow, what a shocker that Knicks are 6-9.  See, getting two superstars (or more) on one team is definitely a good way to build a winner in a hurry, but you can't just slap any superstars together or you end up with a broccoli and poop sandwich.  Lebron and Wade don't necessarily make sense, but Bosh does with either and those two are so good and so special it works.  If Deron Williams and Dwight Howard end up together it makes sense, and if both end up with Nowitzki it makes even more sense.  Outside of the ball-hogging, bitching, and raping Kobe and Shaq made a ton of sense.  Pierce, Allen, and KG, the first of the superteams, made sense.  But Amare and Carmelo?  No.  Chris Paul and Amare, yes.  But not this.  Two guys who need the ball at all times and are terrible defenders who also take up almost all your cap room and reduce you to using Landry Fields and Toney Douglas as your back court.  I thought the Tyson Chandler signing was genius, but not even he can save this defensive wasteland.  God the Knicks are just worthless.  The only city in America who puts NBA as their #1 sport and this is the crap they get.  It would be sad if so many New Yorkers weren't abrasive A-holes.  Or at least that's what TV has led me to believe.

4.  Michigan Wolverines.  Thanks a lot, assholes.  So all the talk about how the Big 10 is the best conference in the land and how it's not only good it's deep and that's why things like Indiana losing to the Gophers and Illinois losing to Penn State and Nebraska beating Indiana happen, and then one of the supposed better teams in the conference has a rare chance to prove how good they are in mid-season and the Wolverines lay and egg and lose to Arkansas, a bottom third SEC team with no chance at an NCAA bid.  Actually, I was starting to kind of believe the hype so really this just did me a huge favor by reminding me that outside of Ohio State and Michigan State the big 10 always sucks in the tournament so now maybe I can win the bracket pool instead of tearing my stupid bracket up by 6pm Thursday night for the 10th straight year.

5.  Northwestern Wildcats.  Pardon my french, but what the deuce was that?  I can't even decide the most perplexing part between John Shurna's suddenly inability to even come close to hitting a free throw, Luka Mirkovich only playing 10 minutes and most of it in garbage time, or why Dawger was terrified of Dave Sobolewski (as he wrote in the comments of my game preview) when they guy is some kind of cross between a ball boy and a lesbian with a game more on par with Maverick Ahanmisi than somebody anyone needs to be afraid of.  Give the Gopher defense plenty of credit because they did a great job, particularly in taking Drew Crawford basically completely out of the game, but Northwestern surely didn't do themselves any favors.  Not to mention that now gives them four losses in their last five games, and although they can't quite be counted out of getting their first ever NCAA bid, it's not looking super duper likely at this point.

Of course, all this pales in comparison to the real story of the game, which was that I was selected to do that thing where you pick between the four kinds of lotteries and then whichever one you pick has a certain amount of Gopher 5 tickets behind it and then you win them and stuff.  So they come get me at half-time right after the alumni came out there for what I swear was the 4th time this year, and bring me over down by the baseline where we sit in the second row and they tell me we're going up on the floor at the first TV timeout of the half, which is the first clock stoppage under 16 minutes.  Ok, fine.

Then, after explaining the bit, they bring over this hideous orange Gopher 5 shirt and tell me that I have to wear this because the sponsor is there and well, that's the bit.  Ok, fine.  So I look at it and it's a Large, which usually either means it will fit fine or be way too tight, depending on the brand.  Of course, this doesn't stop somebody from behind me from yelling "better get that guy a double-XL!" and when I turn around it's some old dude who had to have been at least 90, and he's giving me this big smile and so I laugh and I'm like, "good one, old dude."  So whatever, I put it on and it's super tight but I'll live.

I was at the game with Bear and Snake and they kept telling me I had to shtick it up and be funny and they kept saying that when it was my turn to talk I needed to say something like "I'll take the scratch-offs" which was ok I thought but I couldn't think of anything else until right before they called me up there I had an inspiration.  So when it was my turn and they're like, "what's your choice?", I said, "In honor of my personal hero, Luka Mirkovich, I select Northstar Cash" and then I looked over and he was looking around so he definitely heard his name.  It was awesome.

Look how loved this guy is.  And now he knows for sure who his #1 fan is.

NCAA Basketball Preview - Big East

Ok, conference realignment has officially become out-of-control.  The Big East already has 16 teams, but now because they're losing Syracuse (sad) and Pitt (who cares) and have now seen TCU pull out of joining to become a Big 12 team instead they overreact in the opposite direction and add Houston, Southern Methodist, Central Florida, Air Force, and Boise State.  Except Air Force and Boise State will only be joining for football.  This move does absolutely nothing for basketball except to further weaken a Big East already weakened by the defections, unless you think the recent strong recruiting seen by Houston is sustainable - and I don't.

At first I thought all this conference realignment stuff was kind of cool, but at this point it's just gotten completely out of hand.  I don't even know who went where or who didn't or what's merging.  Like that Conference USA/Mountain West merger - does that effect hoops in any way?  I don't know.  It's too confusing.  I think it's time to just to to one big conference.  Easier that way.

1.  UCONN HUSKIES.  How are they #1 in a tough conference despite losing Kemba Walker?  Because everybody else is back, including Jeremy Lamb (who started to look like a star at the end of last year) and Alex Oriakhi (who is always solid defensively and now his offense is coming along), as well as a group of sophomores (of which Lamb is a part) who were ranked as the #20 recruiting class in the country last season by ESPN.  Oh, and they have one of the best classes in the country coming in with PG Ryan Boatright (#42 rivals), SF DeAndre Daniels (#10), and C Andre Drummond (#2).  Drummond is ridiculous and he's probably going to make people cry, and will likely be the #1 overall pick in next year's NBA Draft if it happens.  Seriously, UCONN is a big-time threat to win back-to-back titles.  Doubtful, yes, but a better chance than most.

2. SYRACUSE ORANGE.  God Boeheim is just incredible - great class after great class after great class.  He's followed up last year's top five class with a top 10 class this year, adding SG Michael Carter-Williams (Rivals #29 overall) and C Rakeem Christmas (#27) to last year's group that included C Fab Melo (#16), SF C.J. Fair (#94), and SG Dion Waiters (#29).  Scoop Jardine and Brandon Triche will be back on the perimeter to run things and awkwardly heave the ball at the rim, and scoring machine Kris Joseph is back for more.  The only real question is if Christmas (freshman) or Melo (super-subpar first year) can fill in for Rick "Automatic Double-Double" Jackson.  If they can, this is a national title contender.  If not, they'll be lucky to make it out of the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament.

3.  LOUISVILLE CARDINALS.  I have a feeling about this Louisville team, and it's not necessarily a good one.  I do think they'll be good and a legit Final Four contender, but I also think they're very ripe for some ugly nights.  It will basically all come down to Peyton Siva and how well he can control the offense, because with Preston Knowles gone he's now in charge of a whole bunch of talent, but a whole bunch of talent that's a little bit crazy.  The Cards have everything you'd need - excellent point guard, dead-eye shooting, perimeter and interior defense, and three incoming swingmen who all rank on in Rivals Top 70 (and a center as well), so really it's going to come down to how well they mesh - and that is going to depend on Siva.

4.  PITT PANTHERS.  I think at some point Pitt turned itself into kind of a minor dynasty (conference only).  They somehow shed the legacy of crappy overrated point guards like Brandin Knight, Carl Krauer, and LeVance Fields and are now actually acquiring good, quality players like Ashton Gibbs who is probably the best player in the conference.  They do lose quite a bit with three starters (including the giant version of kid from Kid N Play which makes me sad), and Gibbs biggest help now is a guy who is already hurt and missing most/all the preseason practice time, a point guard who makes LeVance Fields look like Craig Hodges, and a former big time recruit whose failed to average more than 5 points per game in his two seasons at Pitt.  But you watch, Gibbs will find a way, and Pitt will break into the top 10 at some point this year.  Big fan of this kid.

5.  VILLANOVA WILDCATS.  Villanova is turning into Chucker University, and this year is shaping up to be no exception as Maalik Wayns looks to become the next in the recent line of all-time great chuckers following Scottie Reynolds, the two Coreys, Allen Ray, and Randy Foye.  The real great news is that Wayns looks like he has a chance to be the greatest of them all.  His shooting percentage of 40% last year and 3-point percentage of just 27% were some of the worst numbers any of these chuckers put up at any point in their careers, but that didn't stop Wayns from taking the third most shots (and 3-pointers) on the team behind the two Coreys.  Really, the stars could be aligning for a spectacular two final years of his career.  I'm so excited.

6.  CINCINNATI BEARCATS.  Why do I have some trouble believing in Cincy?  It could be because there best player is named Yancy, but really there's a lot to like about the Bearcats this year.  Besides the aforementioned Yancy Gates, their leading scorer and rebounder last year, they also return essentially every player from last year's team that knocked off a very good Missouri team in the NCAA Tournament last year, and also add Shaquille Thomas and Jermaine Sanders, two athletic wings who will fit well in Mick Cronin's hyper-defensive system.  The biggest issue here will be Cashmere Wright, who is back to play the point for a third year.  Except he can't shoot, turns the ball over too much, and isn't a great distributor.  So I guess they got that goin' for 'em.

7.  MARQUETTE EAGLES.  Jimmy Butler was a do-everything type player and he's gone, but luckily for Marquette Darius Johnson-Odom is back and he's a do-everything type as well who was pretty much just as good as Butler last year and has a chance to be an absolute super star this year without having to share touches with Butler.  Jae Crowder lived up to his billing as one of the better JuCo players last season, looking unstoppable on the block at times despite a shaky shooting percentage and could be a big-time player this year.  The biggest key for Marquette will be the backcourt with Vander Blue coming off a disappointing freshman year where he had more turnovers than assists and shot at a worse percentage than Maalik Wayns.  Junior Cadougan is serviceable but not a star, so they really need Blue to live up to his pre-college hype.

8.  WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS.  Joel Mazzulla, captain bricklayer himself, is gone along with their best scorer in Casey Mitchell and their best defender, or at least one of, in John Flowers.  Even so, Huggy Bear will have these guys in contention for an NCAA bid because they're always going to play tough defense and Kevin Jones is back and ripe for a Big East player of the year type season.  The biggest key will be Truck Bryant, who will have to pretty much main the point alone with Maz gone.  Assuming he can avoid running into cars this season, WVU should be ok.

9.  NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH.  Obviously most of these previews are me combining my limited knowledge on these teams with what I can read, both online and in print, and trying to come up with some decent conclusions.  So basically a lot of guessing.  One thing I'm not guessing about, however, and I'll make it a guarantee, is that you're going to be sick of hearing about Tim Abromaitis by the end of this season.  Seriously, between him and Scott Martin the Irish are going to once again be the great white hope, except now the third wheel in little Hansbrough is gone and I have this crazy feeling Abromaitis is going to have a Harangody like season, only less behemoth-y.  Put on your gritty, hustly, heady, smart player shoes because it's going to be a rough year if you watch any of there games.  And god help you if they actually end up good.  God.  Help.  You.

10.  GEORGETOWN HOYAS.  For the last several years the Hoyas have been a big-time March threat - at least on paper - and it's been on the strength of their guard play.  Unfortunately for them, they're in the habit of getting bounced to early and two of their three stud guards are now gone.  The one remaining, Jason Clark, was more of the third wheel type, and will now have to become the #1 option, and basically the difference for the Hoyas between a good or bad season, because between him and Hollis Thompson - who is the only offensive big man of consequence who is returning, they're going to have to be most of the offense for this team.  There are three highly regarded freshmen big men coming in, but other than throwing a right hook at some chinaman who knows if they'll be worth a damn. 

11.  RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS.  Ever since Quincy Douby left Rutgers hasn't been able to build any momentum.  Even when they snag a great recruiting class with two Top 50 players like they did in 2008 things fall apart and both players ended up transferring before the end of their careers.  That being said, a new coach and another excellent class (ranked #24 nationally and 6th in the conference by Rivals) has hope welling up once again in Jersey.  If they ever get good the RAC gives them a nice home court advantage, so remember that when you're gambling.

12.  SOUTH FLORIDA BULLS.  You remember Anthony Crater?  The point guard who came aboard at Ohio State in the same class that netted the Buckeyes B.J. Mullens and William Buford, then quit 2 months into the season after shooting 3-15 from the floor in 10 games because he didn't get to start (keep in mind OSU's guards were Evan Turner, Buford, David Lighty, Jon Diebler, and Jeremie Simmons)?  He's played at USF the last two seasons and averaged less than 4 points per game both years despite playing over 25 minutes per game, and was kicked off the team in May for "violating team rules."  I don't know why, but that story makes me laugh.  Probably because he seemed like such a douche.

13.  SETON HALL PIRATES.  I don't know why I'm so drawn to Seton Hall.  Maybe it's because I fell in love with Shaheen Holloway, or maybe it's because a dude I played against (and got crushed by) in high school ended up going there (Darius Lane), but I also half-root for the Pirates and actually have a Seton Hall hat somewhere.  Unfortunately this year is going to be a rough one for the Pirates with Jeremy Hazell, the Big East's third leading scorer last year, and Jeff Robinson, the team's second leading scorer, both gone along with a whole bunch of supporting bits.  Herb Pope is still a freaking stud with bullets in his body and Jordan Theodore can score, but there just isn't much here unless Pope goes insane.  More than usual, I mean.

14.  ST. JOHNS RED STORM.   They would be higher, seeing as how Lavin came in and immediately grabbed a top 3 class to come play in NYC, but then things unraveled and three of the newcomers were ruled ineligible, and they just happened to be the #23, #51, and #68 recruits in the country.  There's still good talent coming in, but St. John's is trying to replace essentially everybody from last year and losing those three hurts, especially because the #51 guy - Jakarr Sampson - has already transferred out (maybe the other's have too but I'm not looking it up because I've already spent too much time on this one).  Lavin will turn things around in a hurry, maybe just in slightly less of a hurry than it looked.  I wonder if he's gone crooked yet or if he's waiting another year.

15.  PROVIDENCE FRIARS.  Marshon Brooks was really, really good at scoring.  He was also the rare player who was kind of a chucker, but was an efficient chucker.  I'm not really sure why I'm talking about him because he's now in the NBA if there was an NBA, but it's probably because I don't know anything else about Providence.  They do have two other double-digit scorers back from last year.  Shrug.

16.  DEPAUL BLUE DEMONS.  Talk about horrible.  I read somewhere that DePaul has gone 2-52 in Big East play over the last three seasons.  I knew they were bad, but assumed that was a misprint and looked it up myself.  Sure enough, they're 2-52.  And it's not fixing to change.  Despite being in the heart of Chicago, a nice high school hoops town, they can't get anybody to attend DePaul because of Dumpster Arena.  I just don't know how they're going to get out of this mess.  I guess they have a little momentum, what with Cleveland Melvin winning Big East Rookie of the Year last year and stealing DeJuan Marrero away from the Gophers recently, but yuck.  You'd think one of Illinois, Northwestern, DePaul, or UIC would have to be good, but here we are.

Monday's Musings - 8/29/2011

- First off, my fantasy football draft was a disaster.  We play in a modified keeper league where you keep 6 and have two players available in a transition round where you can take a player off someone else's team in exchange for your first round pick.  I had #7 and there are really only 5.5 good rookie prospects so I figure I'll take Santonio Holmes off another dude's roster.  Well then freaking Snake takes him instead at #4.

I'm not panicking yet, figuring I have good RB depth with Ray Rice, LaSean McCoy, and Deangelo Williams, so I'll just hope I can get WR Greg Little or something at 7 and everything will be ok.  Then fucking Bear takes Williams off my roster with his #9 pick and I go into minor panic mode.  But now I have #7 and #9.  I know I now need a RB and, since I was unable to consummate a trade for Sam Bradford, need a QB as well since I'm not sure of Peyton's status.  I figure I'll grab Matt Stafford at #7 and then take the best available RB at #9.

Well guess what?  Bear takes Stafford at #9 and now all hell breaks loose.  It's suddenly going down as if I have no idea what I'm doing.  I end up drafting Delone Carter at #7 despite the fact that I have no idea how to pronounce his name and that he's the back-up RB, then Greg Little goes right after me and there is literally nobody interesting left to draft.  I end up going with Kevin Kolb and, just to show how panicked I was, I nearly took Jay Cutler here which is a move that I do believe would have gotten me kicked out of the league - although Bogart's dad probably would have tongue-kissed me since he loves the Bears like Joe Mauer loves sitting.

Then round 2 rolls around and I take Joe Addai because apparently I'm now handcuffing shitty running backs together.  Everything just snowballs somehow and by draft end I end up with all four Colt running backs and a receiver I've never heard of but he's #2 on Arizona and I've already got Kevin Kolb so what the hell?  Yes, all four Colt running backs (Addai, Carter, Donald Brown, and Javarris James).  Then the night ended with me getting a case of Coors Light out of the trunk of my car and me, Snake, Dawger, Bogart, and Bear plowing into a 30-pack of White Castle sliders.  Or maybe Snake walked home by then.  I don't know.  I had a lot of beer.

Still, though, I ended up with my big WR sleeper who I might as well tell you is Brandon Gibson from St. Louis because I know one of those assholes will put it in the comments anyway.  Trust me on this.  St. Louis is going to throw the ball a lot and Bradford won't be content to go dinking around to RBs and Danny Amendola again, one of the grown-up wideouts is going to have a big year.  You know it won't be Mike Sims-Walker because we've already seen his upside, so that leaves Donnie Avery, Gibson, or Danario Alexander.  Avery is coming off an injury and his name is Donnie and Alexander is already hurt, so not only is Gibson the most talented off all those dorks but he'll have the best opportunity as well.  Holy shit was that paragraph football nerd-y.  Sorry.  I like to stick to baseball and college basketball nerdy.  That's way more high class.  Like Outback vs. Olive Garden.

Anyway, here's the team:

Qb Peyton Manning, Kevin Kolb
Rb Ray Rice, LaSean McCoy, all the Colts, Demarco Murray, Javon Ringer
WR Hakeem Nicks, Dez Bryant, Jeremy Maclin, Andre Roberts, Brandon Gibson
TE Jason Witten
K  don't remember
DEF probably someone like the Saints

Not too bad.

-  You probably missed this because you don't pay attention to cool things, but Andre Drummond finally is officially on-board the UCONN train.  Drummond was ranked as the #1 center by everybody, and the #1 overall player for 2012 by ESPN and NBAdraft.net and the #2 player by Rivals and Scout.  Bascially he's an absolute monster - think Dwight Howard/Kevin Garnett - awesome on defense, awesome rebounder, and a developing offensive game, although based on sheer size and athleticism he's going to get his points.  A program changing type of player (assuming he ends up being eligible - some minor questions there).

UCONN was rumored to be in the lead for him, but he announced he was going to go to prep school for a year.  Then last Friday he tweeted that he would be attending UCONN after all, and the one UCONN fan I know pretty much lost his mind and maxed out multiple betting accounts taking the Huskies to win the whole thing at 30-1.  Not bad, actually, because it's now dropped to 15-1. 

Basically they now have Drummond, Jeremy Lamb who really started to come into his own at the end of last year, and Shabazz Napier and Alex Oriakhi who were keys in the tournament victory and should be better this year.  Add in freshman small foward DeAndre Daniels, the #10 player in the country no less, and UCONN has suddenly gone from a good team to a legitimate threat to repeat.  Fellow freshman Ryan Boatright (#48 nationally) can push Napier, so between the two the biggest weak link for UCONN is handled, and with Lamb, Oriakhi, Drummond, and Roscoe Smith this is going to be an incredibly good defensive team.  Between them, North Carolina, Ohio State, and Kentucky there are going to be some insanely good teams this year.  Should be fun.  Until I have to go watch the Gophers play.

-  I guess the big NFL news, besides that my team rocks, is that Mike Vick signed a 6 year, $100 million deal with the Eagles.  I was so interested in this news that I farted and then yawned.

-  Oh dude I almost totally forgot about this.  The other day on the radio Dark Star and one of the sidekick guys were talking Twins and they started talking about a the Twins needing a legit ace.  Whoever it was asked if Dark Star thought there was any way the Twins could get Felix Hernandez.  Dark Star said they'd have to give up "Kubel, a starter, and a young guy like Plouffe or Tolbert."  What.  The.  Eff?  I can't even see PA making that statement and he's a total retard, while Star - although a total retard - at least seems to understand baseball and the Twins.  I was just floored.  I think Kubel, any starter, and Plouffe or Tolbert might land you like,

-  Jesus Christ J.J. Hardy hit another home run tonight.  That's #26.  He's the first AL shortstop since 2007 to hit 25 or more in a season.  You know who the last one was?  J.J. freaking Hardy.  In a related note, did you know Khalil Greene hit 27 home runs in 2007?  That's weird.  Too bad he went all wack-o and crazied himself right out of the league.  True story.  Also a true story - I'm bored.  God this blog sucks.

-  Oh, but dinner tonight was a white chicken chili put together by the missus.  She likes her food a little less spicy than I do, so I would have added some cayenne pepper, but the flavor was excellent.  Mixing in black beans with the cannellini beans not only gave it a better flavor, but also was a nice contrast in color.  I mean come on, white, black, it's just like the black and white cookie.  Mrs. W - bringing racial harmony to the world one delicious recipe at a time.

Random Thoughts on a Tuesday

A whole bunch of thoughts while watching the end of the Twins game.  I'm not exactly sure what happened because it was 4-0 Yankees when I left the YMCA and I got home and put the kid to bed and now it's 4-4.  So that's good.  And you know this whole Yankees dominating the Twins thing does have a silver lining - this is shaping up exactly like an 80s movie.  Rag tag group of misfits from the poor side of town continually beaten down by the rich, snobby, evil kids in their fancy preppy clothes, but in the end the good guys finally get over the hump and the bad guys get their comeuppance.  The Twins are really just Daniel LaRusso while the Yankees are the Cobra Kai, we just need our All Valley Karate Tournament moment, and you know it's coming.  Cue Bananarama.

- Well that was quite the turd sandwich on top of what might have been the most entertaining NCAA Tournament I can remember.  I will say though that UCONN isn't getting nearly enough credit for Butler's poor performance.  Yes, the Bulldogs missed plenty of open shots, but they also had difficulty getting good looks and the Huskies had a lot to do with that.  The reason Butler only scored 2 points in the paint the entire game wasn't because they avoided getting the ball inside or because Brad Stevens made a mistake.  They got the ball to Matt Howard and Andrew Smith on the block plenty of times but they just couldn't score against the height, length, and athleticism of Oriakhi, Okwandu, etc.  Either there shots were blocked, altered, or they needed to do something extreme to get an open look and were at a weird angle or off balance.

Butler isn't a bad team, obviously, but this was just their second opponent of this tournament who was overwhelmingly more athletic than the Bulldogs and it showed.  Old Dominion, Pitt, and Wisconsin are at about the same level as Butler, and while Florida  is a more athletic squad they didn't play their best game (credit Butler) and that athleticism translates more when they have the ball rather than when they're on defense.  Unfortunately for Butler, UCONN was/is playing at as high a level as anybody right now (especially defensively) and they just overwhelmed the Bulldogs, stopping basically all dribble penetration and destroying anybody who tried to score from the block.

Howard, in particular, was pretty pathetic, putting up a pretty sad 1-13 shooting performance, getting multiple shots blocked, and getting out-rebounded over and over again.  For the second year in a row he looked out of place in the championship game, this time to the point that my non-basketball watching friend who I was viewing the game with picked him out as "the worst player I've ever seen."  And, of course, he suckered me in and I believed in him and lost some cash on some prop bets I placed on him.  I was a fool and I'm not going to let anything like that happen again.  I'll be back next year to get rich.  As entertaining as this year's tournament was, it was murder on the wallet.

-  I'm not sure I completely understand Shaka Smart's thinking in staying at VCU.  I mean I understand, I just don't know that I agree with him that he can turn VCU into a perennial powerhouse like Butler or Gonzaga, and by turning down NC State's offer he's basically wagering a million dollars a year that he can do just that.  Even if you just look to next year things are going to be a struggle for VCU.  They're losing Joey Rodriguez, Jamie Skeen, Brandon Rozzell, and Ed Nixon off of this year's team (that's four of their top five scorers and all-around best players) and according to Rivals the only player they have coming in to replace them right now is a non-rated forward whose other offers were from Cleveland State and Northeastern.  Meanwhile VCU's previous coach Anthony Grant, who jumped to Alabama after a nice little multi-year run with Eric Maynor and Larry  Sanders, is making almost $2 million a year and took a team that was so bad the previous coach was fired midseason to a team that won their division of the SEC this year, went 19-0 at home, and made the NIT final after just missing out on an NCAA Tournament bid.  Basically his whole team is coming back next year and he has a great class coming in with three kids ranked in the top 125, and he's thought of as a fast riser whose next job could end up being a big one.  Shaka clearly knows what he's doing, but I'm thinking he's being a bit too optimistic here.

- Finally, and this probably wraps up college basketball for the year until/unless the Gophers sign somebody or Tubby Smith finally signs on with NC State, but I would love for somebody to explain to me how they selected the participants in the College 3-point contest.  I thought it was kind of bizarre that Blake Hoffarber wasn't involved, but that was before I realized Jon freaking Diebler wasn't involved.  I was worried that maybe I was just being Big 10-centric, so I looked it up.  Diebler ranked 3rd amongst all seniors (event is only open to seniors) in three-point makes and second in 3-point percentage.  Although looking at the numbers it's kind of surprising Jimmer Fredette wasn't there.  Talor Battle too.  I'm not saying they're screwing it up or anything but the choices for some of the players involved just seem weird, especially since Brady Morningstar made as many threes this year as

- Speaking of white guys playing basketball, when I was at the Y tonight there was no open gym because they had "special" kids playing adapted basketball and I watched for a couple of minutes.  Those kids sure do hustle but man, they have no handles.

-  Twins are now winning.  This is unexpected, but I'm guessing this is like the part where Daniel sprays Johnny with the hose at the Halloween dance - you feel like you got the upper hand, but the night ends with you being held up against a chain link fence while you get the shit beat out of you by guys in skeleton outfits.

- A few players who have caught my eye so far this baseball season who might be worth keeping your eye on:

• Starlin Castro, SS, Cubs - His numbers obviously stand out since they're ridiculous so far (.476/.522/.762) and of course they won't last but I've actually had a chance to watch several of his at-bats and looks awfully good.  He's making solid contact and really driving the ball with some gap power (2 doubles and 2 triples already) and is looking like he could end up being a star.  Ideally you'd like to see a little bit more plate discipline and more walks, but he's a 21-year old shortstop from the Dominican Republic - it kind of comes with the territory.
• Rickie Weeks, 2B, Brewers - I've talked about him on here before, but he's impressed me this year by being less of a knucklehead than I thought.  He had a career year last year and was rewarded with a fat contract and I actually expected him to regress quite a bit but he's having another very good season so far.  Nice work, Rick.
• Neil Walker, 2B, Pirates - Leads the league in RBI mainly due to a grandslam he hit on opening day, but has overall shown an awful lot of power (.684 slugging) for a white middle infielder.  Guy must not be much of a hustler or a gamer.
• Jaime Garcia, SP, Cardinals - I don't know why his complete game 4-hitter against San Diego impressed me so much because it's not out of line based on his numbers from last year (2.70 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 3rd in NL RoY voting), but I guess I didn't really take him seriously because his name was Jamie and everyone knows that's a girl's name.  I guess maybe he's good though.
• Craig Kimbrel, RP, Braves - Since neither Dawger or Bogart could draft their joint team in our fantasy league we had the Bear come out and do it for them.  When it suddenly came time to draft a relief pitcher Kimbrel was the #1 guy left on every list we had even though none of the three of us (me, Bear, Snake) had heard of him, and we laughed and we laughed thinking about the look on those two clowns faces when they saw this dude they'd never heard of on their team.  Well, joke was on us because Kimbrel has been unhittable - almost literally.  He's pitched two innings thus far (picking up 2 saves), faced just six batters and struck out five of them.  Hell, Adam LaRoche is practically a hero because he managed to fly out.  Look out for this kid. 

-  Hey, the Twins actually won.  Sweet.  The final out came when Joe Nathan struck out Derek Jeter on a high fastball that was clocked at 89 mph.  I don't know who that sentence is worse for, but Nathan's fastball is seriously only at 89 mph there are going to be some extremely ugly game endings in our future.

- Lastly, if you like golf our good buddy Grand Slam has promised me a Masters Preview at some point tomorrow, so look for that either Wednesday night or Thursday morning.  I'm sure it'll be epic.  As for my picks I'm not exactly digging deep here but it's hard to argue with Mickelson the way he's playing, and Watney and Justin Rose are solid picks here as well.  Sleeper picks could be David Toms or Sergio.  I don't know.  Trust Grand Slam, he's smoking everybody in our fantasy golf league.